Category: Victor Value

Hi all,

We have Listed action at Lingfield today with Ladbrokes EBF River Eden Fillies’ Stakes (2.13) and the Fleur De Lys Fillies’ Stakes (3.23) on a seven-race card.  There’s also evening all-weather action at Chelmsford with afternoon jumps cards at Ffos Las, Stratford, and Stratford.

I have selections in both Lingfield races.

However, firstly, I have one for Saturday’s Bateaux London Gold Cup Handicap Chase (3:20) at Ascot.

Ante Post Advice:

Ascot

3:20 – Gary Moore saddled the winner in 2016 & 2018 of this handicap chase and he could run Full Back who ran better than his 21-length 7th of 13 at Chepstow on his seasonal return suggests. He’ll strip fitter for that run and the 16/1 available with Bet365, just 10/1 with Ladbrokes & Paddy Power, makes plenty of each way appeal.

The 16/1 on Full Back has gone but 14/1 is still available with Bet365 (paying 4 places) and that remains value to me.  More on that race in Saturday’s preview.

1pt each way – Full Back – 14/1 @ Bet365

Back to today’s action.

Lingfield

2:13 – Sayyida finished 2 ½ lengths in front of Sea La Rosa when the pair finished second and third in a Group 3 at Newmarket last month. Today’s extra furlong will suit both but I fancy that the latter can reverse placings here. Her trainer William Haggas saddled the winner of this Listed contest 2017 & 2018 so knows the type of filly required to win it.

1pt win – Sea La Rosa – 9/2 – Gen

3:23 – Mrs Fitzherbert has left her previous form well behind on her last two starts since going handicapping, winning over C&D and then at Wolverhampton 35-days ago. The daughter of Kingman has a bit to find on Official Ratings with likely favourite Maamorabut she’s going the right way and looks capable of better for a yard among the winners.

1pt win – Mrs Fitzherbert – 11/2 @ Bet365 & Paddy Power

Cheers’

John

Hi all,

There’s a competitive looking seven race card at Nottingham this afternoon with the feature race being a 5f Class 3 handicap with £35,000 in guaranteed prize money. And, it’s a competitive race despite a short-priced favourite.  There’s jumps action this afternoon from Fakenham & Taunton and evening all-weather fixtures at Kempton and Dundalk.

I have selections from Nottingham and Kempton.

Nottingham

1:40 – Mostawaa has been given a 138-day break since disappointing at Sandown in June.  The 5-year-old was in good form in the spring finishing ¾ length 3^rd of 20 in the Spring Mile at Doncaster and 2^nd of 9 at Ascot the following month. His Doncaster had come off a 101-day break so he can go well fresh son the absence need not be an issue.

1pt win – Mostawaa – 13/2 @ Bet365 or 6/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

2:15 – Raasel made it 2-2 over C&D two weeks ago. The 4-year-old is improving, only up 3lb for his latest success and must have a great chance of landing the four timer.

Wrenthorpe was a ½ length second to Raasel last time and gets a 2lb pull in the weight. Raasel is open to more progress but if the ground was to ease further then Wrenthorpe could reverse placings. His form figures over C&D are 121112.

Rebel At Dawn won over C&D (good to firm) last season. The 3-year-old failed to stay over 6f at Haydock 12-days ago but is better judged on his ¾ length 2^nd of 9 to Boundless Power at Ascot two starts back.

Josies Kid is the sole 2-year-old in the race which means he gets in off a handy low weight, albeit he’s still 5lb out of the handicap. Much improved when winning on his nursery debut at York (soft) 19-days ago. No problem with underfoot conditions for the juvenile and he could do well in sprint handicaps as a 3-year-old. Tough ask against experienced handicappers but not easily dismissed.

Verdict: I’m taking on the favourite Raasel with course specialist Wrenthorpe and having a saver on the juvenile Josies Kid.

1pt win – Wrenthorpe – 9/1 @ Bet365 & Paddy Power

1pt win – Josies Kid – 7/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

Kempton

7:15 – Marshall Plan doesn’t have a lot miles on the clock and although the son of Golden Horn has been a bit hit and miss on turf, he looks capable of better on returned to the all-weather and a smaller field. His form figures in field sizes 7 or less are 3122 whilst his two poorest performances have come in field sizes 15+.

1pt win – Marshall Plan – 5/1 @ Bet365

Cheers

John

Hi all,

Corach Rambler ran out an easy winner at Aintree yesterday. It’s always good to get an early jumps winner under your belt. If only to know that you have a handle on the form.

Unusually for a Monday there’s a couple of races that interest me.

Leicester

4:00 – Greenside might be a 10-year-old but he showed when a ¾ length 3^rd of 7 at Goodwood in May that he remains capable at this level. Two subsequent starts have been poor but with Rhys Clutterbuck taking off a handy 5lb I can see him running much better here.

1pt win – Greenside – 9/1 @ Bet365

Redcar

2:05 – Mujtaba could be well in on his handicap debut after making 2 wins from 2 runs last month.  However, at likely short odds he’s one to take on, on much softer ground than he faced last time at Chester.  My two to take him on with are:

Super Den was in good form last autumn on soft/heavy going.  The 4-year-old returned from a 5-month absence and after wind surgery with an encouraging 3^rd of 19 at Goodwood 15-days ago. Lightly raced for his age. The rain softened ground will suit and he looks nicely treated.

Eagleway is another having his second start since a breathing operation. Back from a 3-month absence the 5-year-old was a solid 2 ½ length 6th of 11 at Musselburgh 15-days ago.  Very much respected on his ½ length 2^nd of 27, off 2lb lower, in the Victoria Cup at Ascot in May and ¾ length 3^rd of 6 at Newcastle. Another who won’t be inconvenienced by underfoot conditions.  

1pt win – Super Den – 5/1 @ Bet365 and 1pt win – Eagleway – 11/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

Not sure whether there will be any selections over the the next couple of days but watch your inboxes for updates.

Cheers

John

Hi all,

It shows when you have had a tough day that you’ll happily settle for a dead heat which Boundless Power achieved at Doncaster yesterday.

There’s a decent card at Aintree today with the feature race being the Monet’s Garden Old Roan Limited Handicap Chase (3:00). I have a couple of fancies at the Merseyside track.

Aintree

3:00 – Jewson Monet’s Garden Old Roan Limited Handicap Chase (Grade 2) – 2m 4f

Last year’s winner Nuts Well will attempt back-to-back wins in the race. The 10-year-old won on his seasonal reappearance at Kelso early in the month, a race he won prior to success here. He’s 4lb higher than 12 months ago but shouldn’t be far away.

Third in last year’s renewal was Itchy Feet. The 7-year-old a former useful hurdlerand the winner of his first two starts as a novice chaser. He didn’t really kick on last season after finishing third in this race. However, he ended last season finishing third (1 ½ lengths and one place behind Nuts Well) in a Grade 1 over C&D in April. Entitled to finish ahead of Nuts Well at the weights but the former does have a race fitness on his side.

Top-weight Allmankind has a touch of class. A Grade 1 winning novice chaser at Sandown last season. He ended the season with an easy win in a Grade 2 at Ayr in April. Not always the best of jumpers but when he gets into a good rhythm, he can be a hard to pass. Shaped nicely enough when a length 3rd of 9 to Masters Legacy over hurdles at Chepstow 15-days ago. Should be fitter here. The 6/1 that was available in the middle of the week has gone but he’s the one to beat.

1pt win – Itchy Feet – 6/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

4:45 – Corach Rambler, awinner of a heavy ground novice hurdle over an extended 3m back in January and at Carlisle (3m 1f) in March. The 7-year-old made a promising debut over fences when 3^rd of 6 at Perth last month. That run came over 2m 4f so the step up to 3m 1f can bring out more improvement in the 7-year-old.

1pt win – Corach Rambler – 7/2 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook

Cheers

John

Hi all,

I think yesterday’s selections are still running.

If you like your racing action coming thick and fast. You will enjoy ITV’s offering on Saturday as the broadcaster is covering no less than ten races on Saturday afternoon: Five from Cheltenham, three from Doncaster and two from Newbury.

There’s Group action at Doncaster’s with feature race being the Group 1 Vertem Futurity Trophy Stakes (3:15). There’s also Group 3s in the Horris Hill (2.00) and St Simon Stakes (2:35) at Newbury. And for jumps fans it’s the second day of Cheltenham’s Showcase Meeting. I have fancies at all three of the meetings on ITV this afternoon.  As ever today’s betting advice is at the end of the main piece.

Cheltenham

Looks like the ground will be decent for day two of the Showcase meeting. It’s a moderate card from a Cheltenham perspective but tricky and competitive enough.

1:45 – Samarrive looked a nice prospect when winning a Kempton novice in April. Capable of better on his second season hurdling and going handicapping for the first time.  However, he doesn’t make much appeal from a value perspective. Fergal O’Brien saddles a couple of live contenders in Samba Dancer and Byzantine Empire.  The former looks the stable first choice on jockey bookings and has the benefit of a recent run.  I suspect there isn’t much between the pair at the weights and Byzantine Empire offers a bit more value. This is the 4-year-old’s first run since winning at Southwell in July. It’s also his first start since wind surgery and is capable of better in handicaps.

2:20 – Storm Control won twice here in Nov/Dec and wasn’t disgraced when 5^th of 21 in the Kim Muir at the Festival.  He can be a tough horse when he gets in to a good jumping rhythm out in front and he’s now back down to his last winning mark.  Might prefer slightly easier surface but If he’s ready to roll on his first start for 197-days he shouldn’t be far away.  Trainer Kerry Lee is 2-2 with her runners in the past 14-days.

Jersey Bean won here in April over a ½ furlong further. He goes well on a sound surface but will face competition for the lead and is 4lb higher than for his last win.

Minella Bobo jumped well but did have an uncontested lead when winning by 11 lengths at Ffos Las in May. He’s been hiked up 12lb for that success and is another who won’t get an uncontested lead here. Still, he’s at the right end of the handicap and won’t be far away, if fit enough. Trainer Rebecca Curtis won this in 2018 with Relentless Dreamer.

4:05 – Tobefair has plenty of good form at the track and won this race in 2019 off 14lb higher. Struggled last season but that means he’s sliding down the weights.  Granted neither run this season at Newton Abbot has given grounds for optimism and as an 11-year-old he’s going to be vulnerable to younger legs but he’s to well handicapped to ignore, if he gets a strong pace to chase.

Jersey Wonder won twice on good to firm in the springand given no rain is forecast he will enjoy today’s underfoot conditions. Got caught out in a tactical race Ffos last time but probably remains on a competitive mark. He’s another who will be better suited by today’s likely decent pace and is interesting returning from a break in the first time cheekpieces.

Doncaster

In the Vertem Futurity (3:15). I will be hoping one of my two ante post 2,000 bets Luxembourg will get the job done and enhance his claims for classic success next season. However, the Aidan O’Brien yard is struggling for form at present and he might be worth taking on today. There are also a couple of handicaps of interest on the Doncaster card.

2:05 – Zip, a winner over C&D last November (soft), is at his best on rain softened ground as he showed when a close-up 4^th of 27 in the Victoria Cup at Ascot in May and again when winning at Musselburgh 12-days ago.  Plenty of ticks in the right boxes for the 5-year-old who is just 1lb higher than for his latest win.  Likely favourite Ibiza Rocks is one of the least exposed runners in the field. Put firmly in his place by handicap good thing Sunray Major at Ascot last time. He seemed to handle good to soft well enough at Ascot so today’s softer could also suit. Only 1lb higher than at Ascot and looks the one to beat.

3:15 – If you want to take on Luxembourg you will probably do worse than go with Sissoko. The colt left behind his racecourse debut form when impressively winning a Curragh maiden (1m 1f) 9-days ago. Clearly must improve again to win a race like this but he travelled like a smart prospect at the Curragh and is bred to better as a 3-year-old and over 1m 2f+. 

4:20 – This 5f Class 2 handicap is arguably the most competitive race of the day. Top weight Dakota Gold goes well here, won a Listed race here over 6f last November on soft ground. Not been at his best so far this season but has a touch of class and back in handicap company can go well.  

Lahore is another who has been struggling for form this season but that means he’s now 11lb below last season’s winning mark and he also won over C&D last season. The faster they go out in front the better his chance. Lahore has 3 ½ length to find with Illusionist on their running at York last time but is 8lb better off today.

Illusionist is another who goes well on soft ground and did he well to come from the rear to win at York. Now 5lb higher but if they go hard enough out in front he shouldn’t be far away.

Zargun was a neck behind Illusionist at York. He’s since gone to win the Catterick Dash but may struggle to reverse placings with the winner here. Sunday Sovereign was 1 ¼ lengths behind Zargun at Catterick and is entitled to ger closer on 4lb better terms. 

Boundless Power finished a ½ 2^nd of 16 in the valuable Portland handicap here over 5 ½ f two starts back and showed his liking for soft ground again when winning at Ascot last time. He’s 4lb higher but his liking for testing ground brings him firmly into the mix.

Newbury

The going is going to be very testing at Newbury today for the 2-year-olds in the Group 3 Horris Hill Stakes (2:00).

2:00 – The hot favourite is the Charlie Appleby trained Noble Truth a winner of a Listed race at Doncaster last month improved again when a ¾-length 2nd of 9 to Angel Bleu in Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere at Longchamp last time. He handled the heavy ground at Longchamp well enough so Saturday’s forecast ground shouldn’t be a problem.

Light Infantry looked a smart prospect when beating seven rivals on his racecourse debut at Yarmouth last month. The ground was good to firm that day so softer ground be an unknown for the colt but he’s capable of more improvement for the step up to 7f.

Cresta, a winner of Leicester novice on his racecourse debut, wasn’t disgraced when a 4-length 4th of 6 in the Group 3 Somerville Tattersall Stakes at Newmarket last time. He was still a bit green and didn’t totally handle the dip that day. There should be more to come from the colt.

The Hannon’s saddled the winner of the Horris Hill four times between 2009-2014 and Richard Hannon saddles Tacarib Bay. The son of Night Of Thunder hasn’t been seen on the track since winning a Haydock maiden back in May. He must have had a setback given his 149-day absence.  It was soft ground when he won so he should be ok on the ground and it’s worth noting that 5 of the 8 runners in that Haydock race have won since.

Betting Advice:

Cheltenham

2:20 – 1pt win – Minella Bobo – 9/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook

4:05 – 1pt win – Tobefair – 12/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes and 1pt win – Jersey Wonder – 12/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

Doncaster

3:15 – 0.5pts win – Sissoko – 10/1 @ Bet365

4:20 – 1pt win – Boundless Power – 5/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

Newbury

2:00 – 0.5pts win – Tacarib Bay – 12/1 @ Bet365

Cheers

John

Hi all,

Jump racing is back at Cheltenham as the track stages the first day of the Showcase meeting and we are likely to see some above-average performers emerge the 2m4f novice hurdle (1.55) and 2m novice chase (2.30).

Back on the flat Doncaster and Newbury host the first of two days racing. Friday’s action is completed by evening all-weather meetings at Wolverhampton and Dundalk, where the feature race is the Group 3 Mercury Stakes run in memory of Pat Smullen (6.45).  I have a fair few fancies today at Cheltenham, Doncaster and Newbury.

Cheltenham

4:15 – Guard Your Dreams, sixth of 23 in the Betfair Hurdle in February, improved again when progressed again when 10 lengths third of 12 to My Drogo in the Grade 1 Mersey Novices’ Hurdle at Aintree when last seen in action in April.  Yard among the winners and he should be suited by 2m 4f back in handicap company. Best form last season came with plenty of juice in the ground but must have a good chance.  

Preference at the prices though is for Found On. The 6-year-old looked much improved when jumping well to land a handicap hurdle at Stratford (good) last month.  Won’t be able to dominate this field like she was able too last time but she was strong at the finish that day over 2m and should be even better suited by the return to 2m 4f. 

1pt win – Found On – 15/2 @ Bet365

4:50 – Top-weight Redford Road, a Grade 2 winning hurdler here in December 2019, didn’t do as well as expected over fences last season. However, he’s only had the four starts over the larger obstacles and is handicapped to go well here. Trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies saddled the winner of this race in 2012-2013 and is 5 -17 29% +11.75 with his runners in the past 14-days which is another positive for the 7-year-old’s chance here.

1pt win – Redford Road – 15/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

Doncaster

2:40 – Air Raid gave us a good run for our money at Haydock when a ¾ length 3^rd of 17 to Chairmanoftheboard 7-days ago. He gets 4lb from the winner an connections will be disappointed if he can’t reverse placings with that one here. Soft ground suits the 6-year-old and he looks a value alternative to the favourite Fresh whose claims are there for all to see and was an eye-catching 3^rd of 16 at Ascot, over 7f last time, in a better race than this.

1pt win – Air Raid – 15/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

3:15 – Another strong favourite here in the shape of the William Haggas trained Favorite Moon. The 4-year-old goes very well on soft ground and showed his turn was near when a ¾ length 2^nd of 12 at Goodwood 12-days ago. Cayirli is another who is effective on rain softened ground as he showed when a ½ length 2^nd of 9 on heavy ground at Goodwood 376-days ago. Lightly raced in recent seasons, his latest run was the first start since the summer of 2019.  He remains on handy mark and although he once again has a long absence to overcome his form figures when returning from a 365+ day lay off are 412 so a big run could be forthcoming here.

1pt win – Cayirli – 10/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

Newbury

4:30 – Caribou never got competitive from a wide draw on his third start of the season when 7^th of 19 at Goodwood (1m) 12-days ago. The 3-year-old won twice last October, including here over 6f and wasn’t disgraced when a 4 ¼ length 5^th of 16 over C&D on his seasonal reappearance in April. Both career wins have come on heavy (2-2) and the addition of the first-time visor back over 7f could see him go close here.

1pt win – Caribou – 17/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

Cheers

John

Hi all,

A rare dip into the midweek action. Well it is at this time of the flat season.

There’s an interesting eight race card at Newmarket this afternoon. Seven of the eight races are for 2-year-old’s. If you get a chance to watch the meeting on Racing TV you could well spot some stars for next season.  For example, last year the mile novice (4:25) was won by Hurricane Lane.

There are jumps fixtures from Fontwell and Worcester, while the other Flat action is at Navan and Kempton. I have a couple of interest at Newmarket at Kempton.  Not sure if there will be any selections tomorrow but I will be back on Friday.

Newmarket

3:50 – Farhh To Shy, put in a career best when beaten a short head 2nd of 9 here over 7f 18-days ago. The 3-year-old needs to settle better than she did last time over a furlong further today but we know she handles the track and remains on a competitive mark, despite a 2lb rise in the weights.

1pt win – Farhh To Shy – 15/2 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook

5:00 – Convection has improved with each of her three career starts and there was a lot like about her 2-length 5th of 14 at Kempton 15-days ago.  A mark of 68 for nursery debut looks more than workable and if she handles the track can go close.

1pt win – Convection – 13/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

Kempton

7:30 – I’m going to take a chance with Hazel here. A winner at Dundalk as a juvenile. The 3-year-old has steadily improved on her four starts since joining her present yard. Putting in her best performance when a head 3^rd of 6 at Chester 18-days ago. Shouldn’t be far away if building on that run here.

1pt win – Hazel – 12/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

8:00 – Previous C&D winner Rock Boy Grey shaped much better than on his return from 10 months off the track two starts back when 3¾ lengths 3rd of 9 at Chelmsford 11-days ago.  Should be spot on fitness wise today and I’m anticipating a big run here from stall 5.

1pt win – Rock Boy Grey – 10/1 @ Bet365 or 9/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

Cheers

John.

Hi all,

Thinks didn’t pan out as expected yesterday as I went against Chairmanoftheboard and Trincomalee who of course won their respective races. Hopefully Champions Day can provide us with better.

Inside today’s main piece I look at all six races on the Champions Day card. Plus. You will find my fancies at the end.

Ascot

1:25 – Qipco British Champions Long Distance Cup (Group 2) – 2m

Trueshan is a worthy favourite and if handles this ground as well as he did soft ground 12 months ago. He’s the one to beat. Stradivarius needs no introduction and this could well be his last ever race. He finished runner-up to Trueshan in the Group 1 Prix du Cadran just two weeks ago. Hamish returned from 15 months off the track to get the better of Hukum in the September Stakes at Kempton last month. That success came over 1m 4f and he’s open to further improvement for the step up 2m. Needs some ease in the ground to be at his best but he should get it.  Baron Samedi is another who will be suited by a return to 2m after his 2¼ lengths 3rd of 13 in St Leger at the Curragh last time. If he handles the track, he’s another live contender.

2:00 – Qipco British Champions Sprint Stakes (Group 1) – 6f

Art Power is a previous C&D winner. He also finished a length 4th of 16 in this race 12 months ago. And, a 1 ¾ length 3rd of 12 in the Diamond Jubilee at Royal Ascot. Add in his 4th placed effort in the July Cup and his 1 ¾ length 5th of 11th in the Haydock Sprint Cup and you have a horse who is just below Group 1 level. That said he may not need to be a Group 1 horse to win this year’s renewal. The 4-year-old easily beat Twilight Spinner in a Group 3 at the Curragh 3 weeks ago and looks the one to beat if stall 20 isn’t an inconvenience.

2:35 – Qipco British Champions Fillies & Mares Stakes (Group 1) – 1m 4f

Of all the races on Champions Day. This excites me the least. Snowfall is clearly the one to beat. The Oaks, Irish Oaks and Yorkshire Oaks winner was only 6^th in the Arc 13-days ago but the heavy ground was against her that day. That said its only 13-days since the Arc so she could vulnerable despite being in a much easier race against her own sex.  Should the favourite underperform Invite could be the one to take advantage. The 3-year-old returned from a 3-month absence to win a 1m 4f Listed race at Chester last month. She’s open to further improvement, is unexposed over the distance and comes into race a relatively fresh filly.

3:10 – Queen Elizabeth II Stakes (Sponsored By Qipco) (Group 1) – 1m

This should be between Palace Pier & Baaeed and of the pair I just prefer Palace Pier. If the front two in the betting perform to their best then it looks like each way players are fighting for just the one place. If the ground was soft or worse third place would likely go to The Revenant. On good to soft or good I would favour the unexposed Master Of The Seas.

3:50 – Qipco Champion Stakes (British Champions Middle Distance) (Group 1) – 1m 2f

This has been the target for favourite Mishriff since he won the Juddmonte International at York in August. Derby winner Adayar had Mishriff 1 ¼ length back in second when winning the King George VI at Ascot in July. However, this is more Mishriff’s trip and Adayar has since had a hard race when 4^th in the Arc just 13-days ago.  William Haggas has couple of contenders in last year’s winners Addeybb and the improving Dubai Honour. The latter is the more interesting of the pair having won the Group 2 Prix Dollar two weeks ago and looks capable of better. Sealiway a 1 ¾ length 2^nd of 19 to St Mark’s Basilica in the Prix Du Jockey Club (French Derby) two starts back, finished ¾ length behind Adayar in the Arc last time and has each way claims.

4:30 – Balmoral Handicap (Class 2) – 1m

The sole handicap on the Champions Day card and a maximum field of 20 handicapper have been declared for the race.

Sunray Major looked the proverbial Group horse in a handicap when winning over C&D 15-days ago. The 4-year-old has won both his starts since returning from a 15-month absence and looks a well handicapped horse under a 6lb penalty.  If stall 20 isn’t an inconvenience he’s the one to beat.

The favourite does face several interesting rivals, with three of them also open to further progress.

Nugget is another improving handicapper. The 3-year-old returned from a 4-month absence to win at Haydock last month. He’s up 3lb for that success but remains on a competitive mark.  

Aldaary took advantage of low draw when winning the valuable Challenge Cup Handicap here over 7f on heavy ground.  Another with a 6lb penalty and should be bang there although the return to a mile does pose a different question of the 3-year-old.

King Leonidas a stablemate of the favourite returned from a 15 month lay off when an encouraging 2½ lengths 3rd of 10 on handicap debut at Newbury (1m 2f) last time.  The 4-year-old has just had the four career starts and if the drop to a mile isn’t an inconvenience shouldn’t be far away.

Top-weight Sir Busker, a C&D winner at last year’s Royal meeting, and a 2 ½ length 3^rd to Palace Pier in the Group 1 Queen Anne Stakes at this year’s Royal Ascot. The 5-year-old hasn’t been seen to best advantage on four subsequent starts in pattern company but the likely strong pace and ease in the ground can see him go well from what could be a handy draw in stall 3. Yard could do with a winner though and he’s vulnerable to better handicapped rivals.

Betting Advice:

Ascot

1:25 – 1pt win Baron Samedi – 7/1 @ Bet365

3:10 – 1pt win – Master Of the Seas – 9/1 @ Bet365

3:50 – 0.5pts win – Sealiway – 14/1 @ Bet365 & Ladbrokes

4:30 – 1pt win – King Leonidas – 7/1 @ Bet365 and 1pt win – Sir Busker – 12/1 @Bet365

Good luck with your Saturday bets.

John

Hi all,

Onto today’s action and there’s plenty of it over both codes across Britain & Ireland. It’s a quiet day on the betting front have fancies. Although I do have a handful of fancies at Haydock & Uttoxeter.

Haydock

2:20 – Download The Casumo App Handicap (Class 3) – 6f

Just the little matter of a 17-runner sprint handicap.

Thaler a winner at Kempton two starts back was well fancied to make a winning handicap debut at that venue 9-days ago. He travelled through the race like he’s on a winnable mark but was just touched off by a stronger stayer over 7f. The drop back to sprinting looks a big positive but soft ground would be an unknown.

Raatea may not be the easiest of rides but he remains in great form but his improved from has come on quick turf.

Chairmanoftheboard is knocking on the door and is threatening to win a handicap like this. Comes Into the race on the back of a short head 2^nd of 10 at York 3-weeks ago and William Buick has been booked for the ride.

Cold Stare a three-time winner at the course, goes well on soft ground and won at Ayr 8-days ago. Has a 5lb penalty to carry for that success but should be in the mix.

Air Raid was successful in this 12 months ago and can race off the same mark here. The 6-year-old bounced back to something like his best when a 1 ¼ lengths third of 21 at York last Saturday.  That was his first run since a wind-operation. Soft ground suits and he should be there or thereabouts.

Verdict: I’m loathe to leave out Chairmanoftheboard but the preference here is for last year’s winner Air Raid on his second run since wind surgery.

4:05 – Casumo Mane Event Handicap (Class 3) – 1m

Bake has missed a couple of engagements on account of good to firm ground. The 3-year-old made it 2-2 for the season when winning at Doncaster in August. He’s 2lb higher now but remains capable of better.

You can’t fault Ffion’s consistency this season. The filly’s best form has come over 7f but she was runner-up over mile at Royal Ascot and should be fine over a mile around here.

Uttoxeter

3:05 – Low Cost Roofing Stoke Handicap Hurdle (Class 2) – 2m 7 ½ f

Trincomalee ended last season in top form. Looked sure to win half way on the run in at Haydock but was caught in the final strides when a length 2^nd of 11 in May. Has a good chance if in the same form after a 160-day break.

Litterale Ci put in a couple of cracking efforts on the flat and over hurdles at the Galway Festival. The mare has since come up against an improved sort at Newton Abbot over shorter. The return to this distance will suit and trainer Harry Fry saddled last year’s winner.

Betting Advice:

Haydock

2:20 – 1pt win – Air Raid – 5/1 – Gen

4:05 – 1pt win – Bake – 5/1 – Gen

Uttoxeter

3:05 – 1pt win – Litterale Ci – 5/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

Good luck with your Friday bets

John

Hi all

On Sunday the big race action switches to Ireland. There’s action for fans of both codes of the sport. It’s the Ladbrokes Munster National (4.30) at Limerick and the Curragh hosts the Irish Cesarewitch (3.05). This side of the Irish Sea Goodwood hosts its final fixture of the 2021 flat season.

Not the best of weekend’s so far after last week but there’s still time to end it on a profitable note.

Like yesterday I’m concentrating today’s preview on those races where I have selections. Beginning at the Curragh.

Curragh

2:30 – Pretty Boy Floyd is at his best on soft/heavy ground so any further ease in the ground would be very much in his favour. A previous C&D winner hasn’t had soft ground since he won at Haydock in the spring.

Not Now Zeb is another previous C&D winner. The 4-year-old has yet to hit form on his three starts but he’s now dropped down to 5lb below his last winning mark over C&D. Not out of this if bouncing back to his best.

Rough Diamond won a 6f maiden on soft ground last season. Has been running like he can win a handicap like this if reproduces the form of his ¼ length 3^rd of 14 at Tipperary in June, off 2lb higher. Mikey Sheehy takes off a handy 5lb which makes the 4-year-old look nicely treated.

3:05 – Paddy Power Irish Cesarewitch (Premier Handicap) – 2m

It’s 8/1 the field. Of those at the head of the betting National Ballet makes appeal. The 3-year-old has improved with each of this season’s three starts winning a Limerick handicap two starts back and then didn’t seem total at home at the track when a 5-length 4^th of 13 at Galway. He was doing his best work at the finish that day and should be suited by further than 1m 4f.

Line Out a useful chaser/hurdler has had three starts on the flat this summer. Winning at Tramore maiden in August over today’s distance on the second of them. The 9-year-old didn’t seem suited by the drop back to 1m 4f when only 8^th of 17 here two weeks ago. The first time cheekpieces are added and the return to 2m is a plus. A mark of 79 looks workable given he’s rated 131 over hurdles.  

The lightly raced Ebendi has only had one start since switching to the Joseph O’Brien yard.  Likely in need of the run after an 11-month absence when a 5 ¾ length 5^th of 7 at Killarney in August. Remains with potential and gets the first-time blinkers today.

4:15 – Earls came good at this time last year winning twice in October/November with the last of those wins coming at Naas off 1lb lower. The 4-year-old bounced back to form when a 2 ½ length 2^nd of 13 at Listowel two starts back and ran to the same level of form when a 2 ½ length 4^th of 14 at Bellewstown 10-days ago.  He takes on several 3-year-old’s with potential none more so than Karlsberg who finished 3^rd of 30 here over 6 ½ f two starts back before going onto win at Cork (7f) 64-days ago. Goes well on soft ground and a 5lb rise in the weights looks workable.

Limerick

3:55 – JT McNamara Ladbrokes Munster National Handicap Chase (Grade A) – 3m

The ground is being described as soft for today’s Limerick feature race. Cavalry Master has been well placed to win his last four in novice company. Has been given an 86-day break since jumping well to win at Killarney. Has won fresh in the past so fitness shouldn’t be an issue for the 7-year-old and the Henry De Bromhead yard is among the winners. Handicap debut off what looks a good mark and is the one to beat if as effective on today’s softer surface.

Ontheropes is 0-5 since going over fences but seemed to put in a much-improved effort when a 4-length 2^nd of 11 behind his high-class stablemate Monkfish at Fairyhouse last November. First run since and if you take hislast effort literally he would look nicely treated for his handicap chase debut.

Fairyhill Run was well fancied for the Kerry National but failed to get a run. She comes into the race in great form having won her last three races. Her trainer trainer thinks she could be a Graded horse but 3m on soft ground could test her stamina.

Top weight Chatham Street Lad has a touch of class winning the Caspian Caviar Gold Cup at Cheltenham last December. The softer the ground the better for the 9-year-old who ended last season with a Grade 3 win over C&D in March.  That was his first start beyond 2m 4f over fences and remains unexposed over the distance.  

Betting Advice:

Curragh

2:30 – 0.5pts win – Pretty Boy Floyd – 10/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook.

3:05 – 1pt win – National Ballet – 9/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes and 1pt win – Line Out – 14/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

4:15 – 1pt win – Karlsberg – 11/2 @ Bet365 and 0.5pts win – Earls 12/1 @ Bet365

Listowel

3:55 – 1pt win – Cavalry Master – 6/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

Cheers

John