Category: Victor Value

Hi all,

Four meetings today. Haydock is the only one over jumps and despite the soft ground, the six-race card has attracted just 55 runners.

At least the field size has held up for the feature race with 12 set to meet the starter for the veteran’s handicap chase (2:50).

There are three all-weather cards at Lingfield & Dundalk in the afternoon and Kempton this evening. I have a handful of selections from Haydock for you.

Haydock

1:50 – Burrows Edge won Lanzarote Handicap Hurdle at Kempton by 9 lengths in January 2020 and wasn’t disgraced when 13^th of 25 in the Coral Cup at that season’s Cheltenham Festival. The 8-year-old missed the whole of last season due to injury. Well-being must be taken on trust but had looked the sort to make up into a decent novice chaser and looks worth chancing here on his return to action.

1pt win – Burrows Edge – 5/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

2:50 – A cracking veterans chase with plenty of old favourites in action. If I lived closer to Haydock there would be worse places to be on Wednesday afternoon.

Aso heads the market for Venetia Williams. The 11-year-old has a touch of class and shapes like he needs 3m these days although its worth noting he’s 0 winners from 8 starts 1 placed racing beyond an extended 2m 5f and hasn’t won since January 2019. Will be sharper for his recent run in the Paddy Power Handicap Chase at Cheltenham 18-days ago and has dropped to a nice mark 8lb below his neck 2nd of 12 at Warwick in February.

Lake View Lad won the Many Clouds Chase on his seasonal reappearance last season. The top-weight has now won twice on his seasonal return so fitness shouldn’t be an issue and he’s very much in the mix given he’s dropped down to an attractive handicap mark.

It’s usually worth noting the 10-year-old’s in this type of race and both Prime Venture and bottom weight Tinkers Hill Tommy are worth a second look. The former won on his seasonal return and the latter is better than he was able to show when pulling up on his seasonal return at Ludlow.

1pt win – Lake View Lad – 4/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

3:20 – Bold Plan won a Class 2 handicap hurdle over C&D in November 2019, off 1lb lower. A track that favours speed suits the 7-year-old, although he needs to have come on plenty for a low-key reappearance at Bangor last month. Top-weight here but ticks the all-important boxes marked course, distance and going.

1pt win – Bold Plan – 9/1 @ Bet365

Cheers

John

Hi all,

A bumper weekend of racing continues today. Attention switches across the Irish Sea to Fairyhouse which hosts an eight-race card for the second day of its Winter Festival. There are three Grade 1’s, the Royal Bond Novice Hurdle (1.05), Drinmore Novice Chase (1.35) and Hatton’s Grace Hurdle (2.40). The latter race will see the seasonal return of Champion Hurdler Honeysuckle. Add in a couple of competitive handicaps and you have a tremendous afternoon of action.

There’s also a decent enough card at Carlisle weather permitting although that track does face a precautionary morning inspection. It’s Fairyhouse that I’m concentrating on in today’s preview. The field sizes for the big races seemed to have held up well despite the good ground.

As ever my betting advice can be found at the end of today’s preview.

Fairyhouse

12:35 – One Racing Price Boost Juvenile Hurdle (Grade 3) – 2m

Fil Dor looked a high-class juvenile prospect when winning at Down Royal on his first start for Gordon Elliott. Lunar Power also won last time out Punchestown 15-days ago and is another open to improvement.

1:05 – BARONERACING.COM Royal Bond Novice Hurdle (Grade 1) – 2m

My Mate Mozzie looked a high-class novice when making it 2-2 over hurdles in a Grade 3 at Navan last time. Showed a nice turn of foot two out that day and can do better still. Gordon Elliott has saddled three of the last four winners and has two possible winners in Mighty Potter & Three Stripe Life. Both won on their hurdle debuts and my slight preference would be for the latter who won over C&D earlier this month. Impervious is one of two mares in the field. The 5-year -old is one of the more experienced of the eight runners. Having won all three of her starts over the smaller obstacles, including a Grade 3 at Down Royal last month. Open to more improvement and could be horse to put Colm Murphy back on the map.

1:35 – BARONERACING.COM Drinmore Novice Chase (Grade 1) – 2m 4f

Hopefully all ten declared runners will meet the starter. And if they, do it could be a very informative race. The last three renewals of the race have been won by Delta Work (2018) Fakir D’oudairies (2019 and last year Envoi Allen.

Gabynako, a useful hurdler, he’s already shown he will do even better over the larger obstacles. Built on the promise of his chasing debut when beating one of today’s rivals Fury Road here over a furlong further last time. Midnight Run back over fences and having is first start for 7-months has come to challenge Gabynako at the last but blundered away any chance he had. He eventually finished a 4 ½ length 4^th. But for that mistake would likely have finished runner-up and isn’t out of this with Rachel Blackmore booked.

Cape Gentlemen likely came up against a useful novice chaser when trying to give the 4-year-old Riviere D’etel 18lb in a Grade 2 at Punchestown last time.

Lifetime Ambition beat Beacon Edge by 2 ¾ length at Down Royal last month. Both were making their debuts over fences and the former seemed to win fair and square. Beacon Edge was rated 33lb higher than Lifetime Ambition over hurdles but the latter has clearly improved markedly for going over the larger obstacles. I think Lifetime Ambition is the more exciting of the pair and Beacon Edge maybe better over further. However, you wouldn’t be totally surprised if he did reverse placings with the winner given the respective form of the two yards.

Gordon Elliott has saddled the winner of this five times since 2013. In addition to Fury Road he also saddles Grand Paradis. The latter was in the process of running a nice race on his chase debut when coming down two out in the beginners’ chase at Down Royal won by Lifetime Ambition. He’s open to plenty more improvement if his confidence hasn’t been affected by that fall.

2:05 – BARONERACING.COM Porterstown Handicap Chase (Grade B) – 3m 5f

Just the 11 runners go to post which is smaller than usual. Last year there were 20 runners and 15 in 2019. Clearly the dry ground hasn’t helped here.

Top-weight Coko Beach won last season’s Thyestes Chase at Gowran Park and then went onto win a five runner Grade 2 Novice Chase at Navan the following month. Shaped like the race was needed after a 7-month layoff when 4th of 6 to Envoi Allen in Grade 2 event at Down Royal. The class horse of the race and should stay 3m 5f. Jack Foley takes off a handy 5lb.

I have been waiting for Stones and Roses to run since he won a handicap chase over 3m 1f at Punchestown on New Year’s Eve. He was raised 13lb for that success but given he’s only seven and has only had eight career starts he’s open to more improvement over fences. The ground would be a concern though as his two career wins have come on soft & heavy ground.

No going issues with The Dabbler won a beginners’ chase at Ballinrobe in August and novice at Gowran last month and failed by a head to land the hat trick when back in handicap company at Galway last month. He’s been raised 5lb for that run and is 3lb out of the weights but probably remains on a workable mark if he stays 3m 5f, stays 3m well enough.

Milan Native is having first start since pulling up in the Grand National at Aintree. Won the Kim Muir Handicap Chase at the 2020 Cheltenham Festival and won a minor race at Galway on his seasonal return. Struggled for most of last season but if Gordon Elilott has him back to something like his best, he’s not handicapped out of this.

Forza Milan won over fences at the tenth attempt when winning a Fairyhouse novice chase in January. Back in form when 18½ lengths 4th of 13 to Strictlyadancer in an amateur rider’s handicap chase at Cheltenham last time. Finished 4^th of 20 in this race 12 months ago and another big run can be expected given he goes well here.

2:40 – BARONERACING.COM Hatton’s Grace Hurdle (Grade 1) – 2m 4f

All eyes on Champion Hurdler Honeysuckle here. The mare is 13 from 13 under rules and is the best 2m /2m 4f hurdler in Britain & Ireland. She won this race last year on her seasonal reappearance although it must be said that this race was her hardest race of the season. The ground will be quicker than 12 months ago but apart from that its hard to see her being beaten. Of her nine rivals Roland Pump ran her to ½ length 12 months ago and has each way claims again. Saldier looks the most likely to take advantage should Honeysuckle not he at her best. The Willie Mullins trained 7-year-old won the Galway Hurdle off a mark of 155 over the summer. That was a great weight carrying performance. He’s since gone onto to win a Grade 3 at Tipperary. Just his second start beyond 2m 1f but if he stays does have race fitness on his side.

3:10 – BARONERACING.COM Handicap Hurdle (Grade A) – 2m

Plenty in with a chance in this big field handicap hurdle and is arguably the most competitive race on the card.

Eskylane, Magic Tricks & Light Brigade finished 1^st, 2^nd and 4^th respectively in a valuable handicap hurdle at Down Royal last month. Eskylane is up 10lb for that win which makes life difficult.

Magic Tricks was 4 ½ lengths behind his stablemate last time but does get 7lb now and is entitled to get closer. He’s talented but does find winning hard though.

Light Brigade was in good form in the earlier part of the year winning a C&D maiden hurdle here before going onto win a handicap hurdle at Naas and ending the season by finishing a neck 2^nd of 22 at the Punchestown Festival. He was headed two out by Eskylane last time but quickly folded. He’s surely capable of better than that performance.

Visionarian won a handicap hurdle at Down Royal before finishing 5^th of 19 at the Galway Festival. Looked the most likely winner coming to two out that day but probably didn’t stay 2m 7f. Dropped down to 2m 1f and put in a career best effort on RPR’s when a ½-length 2nd of 12 at Killarney last time. Nudged up 4lb for that effort but on a sound surface the 6-year-old must be respected.

Dads Lad won a Sligo maiden hurdle last month. Before putting in an even better performance when winning at Cork (soft) on his handicap hurdle 14-days ago. He’s been hiked up 11lb for that win but the 6-year-old has only had three starts over the smaller obstacles and is open to more improvement.

Glan, a dual bumper winner last season, won mares maiden hurdle at Fairyhouse in October before finishing a 11½ lengths 3rd of 7 to Impervious in Grade 3 mares’ hurdle at Down Royal last time. Takes on experienced handicappers here, on just her 4^th start over hurdles, but she’s only a 4-year-old and should be open to more progress on her handicap debut.

Autumn Evening, another 4-year-old, showed much improved form to win the Lartigue Handicap Hurdle at Listowel in September and maintained that improvement when unseating his rider two out in Grade 3 at Naas 22-days ago. Likely would have finished second at worst that day. Back in handicap company and very much in the mix.

Betting Advice:

Fairyhouse

1:35 – 1pt win – Grand Paradis – 9/1 @ Bet365 & Coral

2:05 – 1pt win – Milan Native – 8/1 @ Bet365 & Paddy Power and 1pt win – Forza Milan – 8/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

3:10 – 1pt win – Visionarian – 11/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes and 1pt win – Light Brigade – 9/1 @ Bet365

Cheers

John

Hi all,

Not the day I was hoping for at Newbury yesterday and I was on the wrong Hobbs horse in the last.  Moving swiftly on to Saturday’s action.

All eyes will be on Newbury for the Ladbrokes Trophy Chase (3.00), the day’s highlight. Ireland has two strong contenders in the Willie Mullins trained Ontheropes and Henry de Bromhead’s Eklat De Rire, with the home team being led by the Colin Tizzard trained Fiddlerontheroof and Enrilo for the Paul Nicholls yard.

ITV will be live at Newbury for five races, as well as three from Newcastle, where the feature is the Grade 1 Fighting Fifth Hurdle (3.15). The Nicky Henderson trained Epatante, last year’s winner, now seems likely to face a strong challenge from the Paul Nicholls trained 4-year-old Monmiral.

The going at Newcastle on Friday afternoon was still being described as good. However, some very strong winds are forecast and there could be plenty of rain before racing. If has arrived the ground will ease.

I’ve had a look at most of the races being covered live by ITV in today’s preview. As ever my selections can be found at the end of the pain piece.

Newbury

1:15 – Sir Peter O’Sullevan Memorial Handicap Chase (Class 2) – 2m 6 ½ f

Kapcorse won this in 2018 and finished 7^th of 16 in last year’s race. This is first start since that run but he’s short enough in the ante post betting to think that trainer Paul Nicholls thinks they have the 8-year-old spot on fitness wise.

Espoir De Teillee had Kalooki ahead back in second when winning here over 2m 4f in March. The first named shaped better than he had on his seasonal return when 10 ¼ length third of 9 at Chepstow last month. Today’s extra two furlongs are a bit of an unknown but trainer Tom George’s runners are going better now.

Kalooki meets Espoir De Teillee on the same terms as in March so there shouldn’t be much between the pair again. However, he’s the guaranteed stayer of the pair having won over C&D last November. First start since March but did win first time up last season.

Killer Clown finished a length 2nd of 14 to Umbrigado here in Greatwood Gold Cup (2m 4f) back in March. And, wasn’t disgraced when a 12 ½ length 3^rd of 8 at Sandown a month later. Finished a 12 ½ length 6^th of 8 the Old Roan Handicap Chase at Aintree on his return to action which was also his first start since wind surgery. The first time cheekpieces are applied which likely need to eke out some more improvement in the 7-year-old but of they do he’s a major player. Finished race off like he would be suited by this sort of trip.

Ofalltheginjoints showed up for a long way in the Badger Beers handicap Chase at Wincanton last month. Must be respected on his 8 ½ length 5^th of 13, off 7lb higher, in a valuable handicap chase at Aintree on Grand National Day. He’s a good jumper but doesn’t find as much at the end of his races. In that respect the drop back to 2m 6 ½ f could really suit him.

1:50 – Get Your Ladbrokes £1 Free Bet Today Handicap Hurdle (Class 2) – 2m 4 ½ f

The front two in the betting Lecale’s Article and Master’s Legacy look the ones to concentrate on here. The former has just had three starts under rules. A winner of maiden hurdle here in December (soft) on his debut for the Nicky Henderson yard. Looks capable of better on his handicap hurdle debut.

Master’s Legacy didn’t look like had much chance when outpaced three out at Chepstow on his seasonal return last month. However, he rallied and found plenty to pressure to get up on the line. The 6-year-old has only been raised 2lb for that success and will be better suited by a return to this sort of distance.

2:25 – Ladbrokes Committed To Safer Gambling Intermediate Hurdle (Listed Race) (A Limited Handicap) – 2m ½ f

A disappointing field of just four for this valuable handicap hurdle. All four though are last time out winners.

Soaring Glory won the Betfair Hurdle over C&D in February and made a seriously impressive seasonal reappearance when winning at Ascot 28-days ago. Is the one to beat but he’s a hold up horse and may not get the race run to suit.

Onemorefortheroad should be able to get an uncontested lead here. He’s returned to action in excellent form winning a novice hurdle at Stratford before making all to win back in handicap company at Huntingdon 18-days ago. Up 6lb and in a much better race today but does go well on good ground and can’t be ruled out.

3:00 – Ladbrokes Trophy Chase (Handicap) (Grade 3) – 3m 2f

Eklat De Rire – Did well over fences last season winning three of his four starts. The only blemish to a good season was when unseating his rider in the Grade 1 Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase at the Cheltenham Festival. Won a small field listed race at Wexford last time. Likely a mark of 154 is a winnable one but all his best form has so far come on heavy ground.

Ontheropes –The 7-year-old returned from a 11-month absence to win the Munster National at Limerick last month. Ticks the big field experience box and was strong at the finish over 3m last time so could stay further.

Enrilo – Put in a personal best when first past the post in Bet365 Gold Cup at Sandown on his final start, demoted to third having hung badly left in the closing stages. He’s been raised 4lb for that performance but could progress further and the ground was good at Sandown.

Fiddlerontheroof – Runner up four times in Graded novice chases last season, including when a 6 ½ lengths second of 6 to Monkfish in Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase at Cheltenham. Made a winning return to action in the Colin Parker Memorial Intermediate Chase at Carlisle last month. A mark of 150 looks workable and although he needs to improve on his Carlisle performance, that’s possible back up in distance.

Cloth Cap – An excellent winner of this race last year. He jumped his rivals into the ground 12 months ago on good ground. Improved further to win a Kelso Listed chase before pulling up when well fancied for the Grand National. Shaped like the run was needed when a 15 ½ lengths fourth of 11 at Cheltenham last month. The cheekpieces he wore last season when winning this were left off on his seasonal reappearance but they are back on today.

Demachine – Was expected to prove to be a much better chaser than hurdler and so it has proved. The 7-year-old won his first two starts over fences in novice handicap chases at Uttoxeter and Ascot (both good to soft). Ended last season with 4 lengths 2nd of 6 to Remastered in the Grade 2 Reynoldstown Novices’ Chase at Ascot. Good ground and 3m 2f would be slight unknown. But he does look on a competitive mark and if he stays is a lively outsider.

3:35 – Watch Racing Free Online At Ladbrokes Handicap Chase (Class 2) – 2m ½ f

Grey Diamond ran well when a 5-length 3rd of 10 at Ascot on his seasonal return 28-days ago. A consistent handicap chaser last season winning at Sandown, off 4lb lower, in March. Chased a strong pace at Ascot and was beaten by two who were more patiently ridden. Remains capable of better off his present mark.

Numitor returned to action better than ever when making all to win at Wetherby last month. The 7-year-old’s best form last season had come on soft/heavy ground but showed he could be just as effective on good to soft last time. Up 5lb, and in a better race but his good jumping gives him a decent chance.

Frero Banbou was far too good for six rivals when winning a handicap chase Sandown (good to soft) in March. The 6-year-old wasn’t disgraced when a 9 ½ length 5^th of 19 in the Red Rum Handicap Chae at Aintree the following month, finishing ¾ length and one place in front of Grey Diamond that day. However, he was well behind that one when 4^th at Ascot on his seasonal return. Yard’s runners are going better now, had a winner here yesterday, and he’s surely better than he was able to show last time.

Sully D’Oc AA, likely went into a few notebooks after his 2 ¾ length 3rd of 7 to Before Midnight at Ascot on Saturday. He ran much better than he had done on his seasonal return at the venue at the end of October. Doing his best work at the finish he might have got even got closer to the winner if he had got a better run on the home turn. The 7-year-old had ended last season in excellent form finishing a 1 length 2nd of 19 in the valuable Red Rum Handicap Chase at Aintree before going one better at the Punchestown Festival. Showed on Saturday he can be competitive off around his present mark of 145. Big chance if this run doesn’t come to quick.

Newcastle

I have had a look at the two big races at Newcastle.

2:05 – Betfair Exchange Rehearsal Handicap Chase (Listed Race) – 2m 7 ½ f

Thirteen have stood their ground for this handicap chase. The possibility of some rain to help ease the ground has likely played a part in the anticipation of a decent sized field.

Last year the Sandy Thomson trained Yorkhill caused a major shock when winning the race at 66/1. Thomson has this year’s favourite The Ferry Master and Dingo Dollar in this year’s. Both are previous C&D winners and looked like they would come on for their recent seasonal returns They give the trainer a strong hand in the race. The pair finished 2^nd & 4^th in last season’s Scottish Grand National. The Ferry Master travelled really well at Ayr looking the most likely winner four out but probably didn’t quite get home over 4m. He looks on a winnable mark and might just prove the better of the pair.

Aye Right was finishing runner-up in last year’s Ladbroke Trophy. Ground will be fine for the 8-year-old and he will be sharper for his Kelso seasonal reappearance over an inadequate 2m 1f. Doesn’t win very often and was well behind the Thomson pair in the Scottish Grand National but he can’t be ruled out if he gets into a good jumping rhythm

Glen Forsa shaped with promise on his first start since switching to the Charlie Longsdon yard when a 10-length 4th of 14 to Larry in Bateaux London Gold Cup Handicap Chase at Ascot last time. He’s vulnerable to stronger stayers over 3m but has dropped down to a good mark on his best from.

3:15 – Betfair Fighting Fifth Hurdle (Grade 1) – 2m

When I looked at the race in the middle of the week for my Thursday Daily Punt column, I hadn’t anticipated the arrival of some heavy rain and Monmiral taking his chance here.

Last year’s winner Epatante looks to have a great chance of back-to-back wins in the race. The mare handled good ground very effectively here 12 months ago. Four from four when returning from a 90+ day layoff. Lack of fitness shouldn’t beat her and trainer Nicky Henderson form figures in the race are 2121121.

Silver Streak did beat an under-performing Epatante in the Grade 1 Christmas Hurdle at Kempton last December and was carried out at the second in this race last year. The 8-year-old looked a bit rusty when a 3 ½ length runner-up to Sceau Royal on his seasonal return last month. Sceau Royal has since gone onto win again at Wincanton. However, he was put firmly in his place in last year’s race. I fancy that Silver Streak can finish ahead of his old rival today.

Monmiral made it 5-5 over hurdles when comfortably winning the Grade 1 Anniversary Juvenile Hurdle at Aintree in April. He looked an exciting prospect that day and although he would need to have improved over the summer to beat a top 2m mare like Epatante. He’s just a 4-year-old and has the scope to do better this season.

Betting Advice:

Newbury

1:15 – 1pt win – Killer Clown – 5/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

3:00 – 1pt win – Fiddlerontheroof – 8/1 @ Bet365  and 0.5pts each way – Demachine – 16/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook (both paying 6 places 1/5 odds)

3:35 – 1pt win – Frero Banbou – 6/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes and 1pt win – Sully D’Oc AA – 8/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

Newcastle

2:05 – 1pt win – The Ferry Master – 5/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook and 1pt win – Aye Right – 6/1 @ Bet365

Cheers

John

Hi all,

The field sizes for the first day of Newbury’s Winter Carnival have held up better than might have been feared. With the seven-race card having attracted 56 runners. I have had a look at five races from Newbury and four of them you can watch live on ITV3. My selections can be found at the end of the main piece.

Newbury

12:40 – Ladbrokes Committed To Safer Gambling Novices’ Chase (Grade 2) – 2m 4f

Just the four runners for this novice chase. However, all four have good claims.

Miller’s Bank could be considered a surprise favourite given he hails from a small stable. But he looks a worthy one to me. A very useful hurdler who won a good ground handicap hurdle here in March. Before posting a career best when a 3 ½ length 3^rd of 11, just a length behind Buzz, in the Grade 1 Aintree Hurdle. The 7-year-old jumped well when making a winning chase debut at Huntingdon last month and is capable of more improvement.

Tea Clipper another with good form over hurdles on a sound surface. The 6-year-old made a winning a chase debut in a 5-runner listed novice chase at Chepstow (good) last month. Looked in a bit of trouble four out that day but his stamina kick in and he showed a good attitude to rally and, in the end, win a shade comfortably. Likely to have his ground although a bit further may prove ideal.

Pic D’Orhy is more exposed than his three rivals, having already had five starts over fences but isn’t dismissed given he’s trained by Paul Nicholls who saddled Clan Des Obeaux to win this in 2016 and Wonderful Charm in 2013.

Nassalam returned from a 7-month lay off to win a 7-runners novice handicap chase at Ascot on his first start over fences. It was soft that day but he does get a handy 4-year-old weight allowance again like he did at Ascot. He only won on the nod last time but he jumped to his left at most of his fences so going left-handed is a positive. A likely improver here if as effective on a sounder surface.

1:50 – Ladbrokes Daily Odds Boosts Chase (Novices’ Limited Handicap) (The Fulke Walwyn Trophy) (Class 3) – 2m ½ f

Despite just seven runners this could be a race where the form will be worth following with three of the contenders making their chase debut.

Solo made a highly respectable debut over fences when beaten a nose by Nassalam at Ascot last time. He’s been raised 4lb for that effort but will surely win races on the back of that effort.

Fifty Ball was 2^nd of 23 in the valuable Betfair Handicap Hurdle here in February. He made a promising chase debut when a 2 ¼ lengths 3^rd of 7 to the useful Minella Trump in novice handicap at Sandown 19-days ago. Can win races in the sphere with that experience under his belt.

Nicky Henderson saddled last year’s winner and relies on chase debutant Mister Coffey today. A useful hurdler the 6-year-old looks the type who can do even better over fences this season.

Boothill is very highly regarded by trainer Harry Fry. The 6-year-old a winner of his sole bumper start and his first hurdle start last season. Shaped well when 2½ lengths third of 14 to Soaring Glory in Listed handicap hurdle at Ascot last time. Lightly raced profile means he’s open to plenty of improvement for going chasing.

Venetia Williams is 2-4 with her runners at the meeting since 2016 and she saddles chase debutant L’Homme Presse. The 6-year-old easily won a good ground Chepstow novice hurdle on his first start for the trainer in April. Might well have found the race coming too quick when only 6^th of 12 Sandown handicap two weeks later. Another expected to leave his hurdles form behind over the larger obstacles.

2:25 – Get Your Ladbrokes £1 Free Bet Today Handicap Chase (Class 2) – 2m 4f

It’s good to see that ten have stood their ground for what looks a cracking handicap chase. The one I really like here Umbrigado is now a non-runner.

Fanion D’Estruval is the bookie early bird favourite. The 6-year-old a very useful chaser last season raced like the run was needed when a strong finishing 4^th of 8 in the Old Roan Handicap Chase at Aintree on his seasonal return, just 1 ½ lengths behind recent Paddy Power Handicap Chase winner Midnight Shadow. This distance is needed on good ground and this previous course winner must be high on the shortlist. Trainer Venetia Williams saddled Aso to win this in 2018.

Morning Vicar won a novice handicap chase over C&D (good) last November. The 8-year-old didn’t really build on that performance on three starts in better company but ended last season with a win at Perth (good) in April. Back up in class here and 7lb higher than last time but the ground will suit him.

Neville’s Cross is another taking a step up in class here. The 6-year-old seems to have got his act together over fences winning three of his last four starts. Jumping will be tested here but a sound surface means he can’t be easily dismissed.

Phoenix Way is one of the least experienced in the field and clearly hasn’t been the easiest to keep sound as the 8-year-old has only had the seven career starts.  He won a Warwick novice chase on his seasonal return last season before bursting a blood vessel when pulled up in a Grade 1 novice chase in December. Ended last season with a back to form 14 lengths 4th of 7 to Protektorat in the Grade 1 Manifesto Novices’ Chase at Aintree. Probably best fresh and not handicapped out of this on last season’s best chase form.

Colorado Doc has run well on both starts over hurdles this autumn. Ended last season with a handicap chase win at Huntingdon in April. This is tougher and the 10-year-old’s 5lb above his last chase winning mark. Good ground is fine though and he could get in to the places.

Paul Nicholls saddles Amour De Nuit & Eritage. The former is having his first start over fences since February 2019. The latter is 3-6 on good ground and given he’s only had six starts over fences could have more to offer in the sphere.

3:00 – Ladbrokes Long Distance Hurdle (Grade 2) – 3m

The feature race of the first day of the Newbury Winter Carnival is the Grade 2 Ladbrokes Long Distance Hurdle. The final declarations came out on Wednesday and just six are set to meet the starter.

At the head of the ante post betting is Paisley Park won the race in 2019 and was only beaten 1 ½ lengths by Thyme Hill in last year’s race. The 9-year-old isn’t as good as he used to be. But as he showed when a 5 ¼ length 3^rd of 8 to Indefatigable in West Yorkshire Hurdle at Wetherby on his seasonal return that he retains plenty of ability. He might be done for toe, on good ground, in a tactical race but it’s worth noting his form figures on his second start are 2111.

The biggest threat to the favourite could come from Lisnagar Oscar. A surprise winner of the 2020 Stayers Hurdle. He didn’t really hit top form last season although he was still travelling kindly when falling at the 7^th in last year’s Stayers Hurdle. Shaped with a bit of encouragement over an inadequate 2m 4f when a 9 ½ lengths third of 6 to Brewin’upastorm on his seasonal return at Aintree. Trainer Rebecca Curtis came of the cold list with a couple of winners at the weekend which is a positive.

3:35 – Play Ladbrokes 1-2-Free On Football Handicap Hurdle (Class 2) – 3m

Eyeofthescorpion has been running consistently well since returning from a winter break in July. The 7-year-old arguably put in a career best last time when a 3 ¼ length 2nd of 10 at Ffos Las last time. The ground was soft that day but he’s just as effective on good ground.

Philip Hobbs has a couple of live contenders in Dolphin Square & One For You. Dolphin Square’s best two RPR’s have come over C&D and on good ground. He’s now 3lb lower than when a 1 ½ length 2^nd of 12 here last November. Ran on to finish, set too much to do from the rear, when a ½ length 2nd of 7 to Khan at Lingfield on his seasonal return. A thorough stayer he’s not of this if he gets a decent gallop to chase.

One For You improved for the step up to 2m 7f when winning at Market Rasen on his final start of last season. The 6-year-old seemed to progress again when a 3 ¼ lengths 3^rd of 10 over C&D (good) on his return to action earlier this month. He’s just had the six starts over hurdles and has scope for better of his present mark.

Alrightjack returned from a 5-month lay off to register an easy success at Fontwell 3-weeks ago. He’s up 4lb and in a deeper race here. Stamina for 3m is a bit of an unknown for the 7-year-old but he’s got place claims.

Certainly Red ended last season with an improved success at Wincanton and returned action last month a similar vein when seemingly doing just enough to win at Chepstow after an 8-month break. Up 6lb for that success and up a couple of notches in class but given his present trajectory another win can’t be ruled out.

Betting Advice:

Newbury

1:50 – 1pt win – L’Homme Presse – 9/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

3:00 – 1pt win – Lisnagar Oscar – 6/1 @ Bet365 & Coral

3:35 – 1pt win – One For You – 5/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes and 1pt win – Certainly Red – 9/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook

Cheers

John

Hi all

I’m back in the hot seat today with a handful of fancies.

Wolverhampton

4:35 – Saleymm looked a useful prospect when making a winning all-weather debut at Chelmsford two weeks ago. He could be very well treated on his handicap debut, off a mark of 87. With the step up to a mile expected elicit even more improvement in the 3-year-old.

On A Session holds no secrets from the handicapper. But has proved a mostly consistent handicapper since joining David Barron stable. The 5-year-old put in arguably a seasonal best when a ½ length 4th of 11 at Musselburgh last month. This will be his first start on the all-weather since he finished a ½ length 2nd of 13 over C&D in March. He could be the one to take advantage should Saleymm underperform.

1pt win – On A Session – 5/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

Taunton

2:25 – Just the seven go to post for this Class 3 handicap hurdle but you can make a solid case for most of them.

An Tailliur saw his good ground winning run come to an end when slipping and unseating his rider at the first at Cheltenham 13-days ago.

Guernesey is another who appreciates a sound surface. The 5-year-old a winner at Exeter two starts back, ran just as well when a short head 2^nd of 7, the winner has gone in since, at Warwick 8-days ago. Solid claims off the same mark here.

Dargiannini ended last season with two wins in novice company at Sedgefield. Was surprisingly made favourite (100/30) before pulling up in the valuable Silver Trophy Handicap Hurdle at Chepstow last month. Needs to jump better than he did last time but if he does remains with potential.

Grisbi De Berce won novice at Huntingdon (good) in April and was in the process of running well on his handicap hurdle debut at Market Rasen when last seen in action in June. Had just moved into 4^th and travelling well when making a mistake two out. Managed to get back into contention when falling at the last. Should stay 2m 3f and capable of better.

1pt win – Guernesey – 3/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

0.5pts win – Grisbi De Berce – 10/1 @ Bet365 & Paddy Power

Thurles

12:35 – My Oakclahome a decent enough handicap chaser in his grade. The 8-year-old was a close-up second when unseating his rider two out over C&D three weeks ago. Will face pace pressure here but Shane Fitzgerald takes off a handy 5lb and I fancy another big run is forthcoming.

1pt win – My Oakclahome – 10/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

Cheers

John

---

 

Hi all,

Dans Le Vent’s win in the handicap hurdle at Haydock enabled the service to make a small profit on Saturday in addition to Friday’s much bigger one. I must admit I only out Dans Le Vent up as 0.5pt selection due to the jockey propensity to hold up her horses up at the back. More fool me as I thought Isobel Williams gave the winner an excellent hold up ride.

Onto Sunday’s action and the big race of the day is across the Irish Sea at Navan with the latest renewal of the historic Troytown Handicap Chase (2:50).

I have a couple of selections in the big race in addition a couple of other fancies at Navan & Exeter. First though an in-depth look at the big race at Navan.

Navan

2:50 – Ladbrokes Troytown Handicap Chase (Grade B) – 3m

Its good ground at Navan and which means only seventeen have been declared for this year’s race which is almost five below the 10-year race average.

Looking at some of the key trends:

Horse’s returned 14/1 & bigger are – 1 winner from 145 runners 14 placed

Gordon Elliott is the top most winning trainer in the past ten years with – 4 winners from 53 winners 8 placed. He does like to throw plenty of darts at the race though. Which means if you had backed all these runners, you would have made a £13.00 loss to a £1 level stake. Although he’s 4 winners from 12 runners +28 5 placed with those sent off 12/1 & under.

Elliott saddles seven of the seventeen runners with four of his seven forecast to be returned 12/1 & under. That doesn’t make it easy to shortlist and three of the four are on my shortlist.

Looking at the pace map. There should be an even pace but it shouldn’t be overtly strong. Given the unseasonably good ground. It should then pay to look for runners that are likely to be ridden closer to the pace.

Farclas a 3-length 2nd of 21 to The Shunter in Paddy Power Plate at Cheltenham Festival before finishing 5^th in the Grand National at Aintree. The 7-year-old was in the process of running a big race and still going well behind the leaders when unseating his rider three out in the Kerry National at Listowel. The Gordon Elliott trained runner will like the ground (3-5 on good) and looks to have favourite’s chance although he can be a little frustrating.

Run Wild Fred a stablemate of the favourite. He’s another with big field handicap chase form having finished runner-up in the Thyestes Handicap Chase early in the year and ended last season with a 1 ¼ lengths 2nd of 28 in Irish Grand National at Fairyhouse, off 5lb lower. Returned from a 7-month absence to finish runner-up to Cape Gentleman over an inadequate 2m 4f in a Grade 3 at Cork three weeks ago. Will be sharper with that run under his belt and has obvious claims.

Definite Plan won’t lack for fitness and as he showed when winning at Cheltenham last month he goes very well on good ground. The first time cheekpieces had the desired effect and sharpened up his jumping. He stay’s further 3m so his stamina will be handy if there’s a decent pace.

Last season’s Scottish Grand National Third Mister Fogpatches finished 3^rd of 12 in the Cork National last time. A sound surface suits the 7-year-old but he needs to jump better than he did last time and probably would prefer further than 3m.

Lord Royal trained by Willie Mullins has only had four starts over fences. His best run over fences last season came when ¾-length second of 9 to Mr Hendricks in a beginners’ chase over C&D in January. Not knocked about when 26 ¼ lengths 7th of 12 to Galvin in National Hunt Chase at Cheltenham last time. Looked a bit weak last season but has the size to make a chaser and likely on a good mark. Good ground is an unknown but the trainer thinks he will do better on a sounder surface.

Top Moon can go well. The 6-year-old has won on good ground and was a solid 5 ¾ length 3rd of 15 to Ontheropes in Munster National at Limerick last time. There’s a race like this in him when all the cards fall right.

Discordantly won handicap chase at Galway on his seasonal reappearance last October and then put in a personal best over fence’s when a 22-length 4^th of 22 in this race 12 months ago. Was still in contention, for the places at least, when making a bad mistake two out. Goes well fresh, should be ok on the ground and could get into the money again.

The inform Henry De Bromhead saddles Eleazar Des Neiges. The 7-year-old ran better than his pulled effort, last time, in the Cork Grand National suggests. He was still in contention when making a race ending mistake three out. The 7-year-old remains of potential back over shorter than at Cork but his best form so far has come with plenty of juice in the ground.

Verdict:  It’s not the strongest of renewals. Both Discordantly and Eleazar Des Neiges could get into the money. There’s a good chance that Lord Royal is on a good mark for his handicap debut but the ground is an unknown. Top Moon has run well in these types of races and another good run wouldn’t surprise. Gordon Elliott’s record in the race means his runners are always worth having on the shortlist and both Farclas and Run Wild Fred with a slight preference for the former on good ground.

1pt win – Farclas – 5/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

0.5pts win – Discordantly – 12/1 @ Coral & Labrokes

12:50 – Clarens is sure to be popular in his bid for the hat trick after wins at Listowel and Wexford. Up 9lb for that latter success but he made mistakes at the last two hurdles so could be capable of further improvement to defy his new mark. However, he needs to cut out the mistakes in what looks a slightly better race.

Ricky Longford will appreciate the forecast good ground. The 7-year-old seemed to improve when a 1 ¾ length 2^nd of 11 on his last run over hurdles at Punchestown two starts back.

0.5pts win – Ricky Longford – 11/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook

Exeter

3:00 – Legendary Rhythm shaped with plenty of promise when a 4 ¾ length of 15 of 15 at Chepstow last month. That was the mare’s first run for 7-months and she entitled to be fitter today. Takes on the geldings here but should give her backers a decent run for their money.

1pt win – Legendary Rhythm – 10/1 @ Coral & Ldbrokes

3:30 – Flutiste shaped with more encouragement on his second start from a 10-month absence when a 3-length 3rd of 17 at Chepstow 26-days ago and did run well here last December for a previous trainer. Looked in need of a stiffer stamina test at Chepstow so today’s 2f longer trip should be a positive and although he remains a maiden after 11 starts, he should be able to win a handicap hurdle off his present mark.

Freddy Fanatapan was 8-lengths and two places behind Flutiste at Chepstow last time. That was his first start for seven months so he’s likely to be sharper with that run under his belt. He won this corresponding race 12 months ago, off 1lb higher. Granted it was soft ground when he won this race last year but he’s also won on good ground so underfoot conditions shouldn’t preclude him going close again.

0.5pts win – Flutiste – 10/1 @ Bet365 & Paddy Power

0.5pts win – Freddy Fanatapan – 11/1 @ Bet365 & Paddy Power

Not sure if there will be any selections until Friday but keep an eye on your inboxes for any updates.

Cheers

John

Hi all,

A good day for Venetia Williams at Ascot yesterday with a tasty double. How the second of her winners Kapga De Lily was allowed to go off 13/2 was amazing for those on with BOG bookies.

A good start to the weekend and let’s hope it can continue today.

The eyes of the jump racing world will be on Haydock today as the Lancashire track hosts its best jumps meeting of the season the Betfair Chase meeting. ITV are covering four races live from Haydock including the Grade 3 stayers’ handicap hurdle (2.25). The days feature race of course the Grade 1 Betfair Chase (3.00). A race where Cheltenham Gold Cup Runner-up A Plus Tard faces seven rivals. Earlier on the Haydock card high class novice chase prospect Bravemansgame takes on three rivals in the Betfair Graduation Chase (1:50).

TV will also show two races live from Ascot, including the Grade 2 1965 Chase (2.05) and a 2m1f handicap chase (3.15). The Grade 2 Chase see’s the seasonal reappearance of Dashel Drasher who must give 6lb to all but one of his rivals and they include Defi Du Seuil who bids to get his career back on track after two poor performances last season.

Arguably the best horse in action today isn’t running at either Haydock or Ascot. Bob Olinger makes his long-awaited debut over fences in a beginners’ chase at Gowran Park (12:00) and he’ll be long odds on to beat his 17 rivals.

I have had a look at four races at Haydock and three Ascot in this preview. You can find my Saturday bets at the end of the main piece.

Let’s begin at where else but Haydock.

Haydock

The ground is good to soft, good in places on the hurdle track at Haydock for Betfair Chase Day.

12:40 – Because We’Re Betfair Stayers’ Handicap Chase (Class 3) – 3m 4 ½ f

Captain Drake shaped like his seasonal reappearance was needed over hurdles at Uttoxeter last month. We know he stays well, as he showed when runner-up in the 2019 Midlands Grand National and a 6 lengths 4th of 18 to Secret Reprieve in last season’s Welsh Grand National at Chepstow.  Capable of big run back over fences and a marathon trip

Defuture Is Bright, twice a winner over fences last season. Heended his campaign with a personal best when a ¾ length 2^nd of 11 here (good) last April. Not seen at his best on either start this season but his 7^th of 17 at Cheltenham was more encouraging and he’s 3lb lower here. The suspicion is there’s a race in 7-year-old off around his present mark.

Verdict: Captain Drake is very much a contender but I just prefer the claims of Defuture Is Bright.

1:15 – Betfair Pays Tribute To Andy Stewart Handicap Hurdle (Class 2) – 2m 3f

Our Surprise travelled like a well handicapped horse when a 1 ¾ length 2^nd of 14 at Wetherby three weeks ago. That was the 6-year-old was making his handicap debut that day and given how keen he was he did well to still be in with a chance in the 110yds. Clearly talented but he did hang badly in the final stages at Wetherby which possibly cost him the win. The first-time hood is applied and if he gets a strong pace to chase could be the answer.

Tommy’s Oscar a useful novice hurdler last season. Has started this season in good form, including when an 8-length 3rd of 9 in handicap hurdle at Carlisle last time. The 1f drop back in trip should suit the 6-year-old who’s capable of winning a handicap hurdle like this off his present mark.

Verdict: The drop back in trip should suit Tommy’s Oscar. Our Surprise looks on a good mark based on his Wetherby run and won on good ground at Newton Abbot in April.

2:25 – Betfair Exchange Stayers’ Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) – 3m ½ f

Irish raider Rightplacerightime has only had three starts since switching to Emmet Mullins all over fences. Opened his account over fences when making all to win a Fairyhouse beginners chase 18-days ago. Sneaks into the race at the bottom of the weights and could be well handicapped horse over hurdles, if reproducing his form back over the smaller obstacles, for a shrewd trainer.

Flight Deck made it 3-7 over hurdles when winning at Wetherby on his seasonal return last month. He’s up just 3lb for that success and although is a much better race the 7-year-old doesn’t have many miles on the clock and has only had two starts beyond 2m 4 ½ f.

Orbys Legend looked a very useful hurdler in the making when winning the valuable Silver Trophy at Chepstow last month. The 5-year-old produced a good turn of foot coming to the last to win his race that day. It was good ground at Chepstow but he did win on good to soft & soft last season. He’s just had four starts over hurdles and is open to further progress.

Dans Le Vent ended last season with a career best when 2^nd of 22 at Aintree in April. Matched that level of form on his seasonal return when a 4 lengths 2nd of 12 in the Welsh Champion Hurdle at Ffos Las. He was doing his best work at the finish last time and should be suited by 3m.

If The Cap Fits has a touch of class and must be respected off a mark of 149. The top-weight won a Grade 1 hurdle at Aintree in April 2019 and a Grade 2 at Ascot later that year. Didn’t look totally at home over fences last season. Has returned to action in good form back over hurdles finishing a 9-length 2nd of 6 to Brewin’upastorm at Aintree earlier this month. Three miles, a flat track and decent ground are optimum conditions so he’s very much one to keep onside.

Verdict: Rightplacerightimecould be the proverbial handicap blot. Dans Le Vent races like he will be suited by 3m. Top-weight If The Cap Fits ticks plenty of boxes and has a touch of class. Both Flight Deck & Orbys Legend are going the right way. No issues with stamina for Flight Deck but Orbys Legend must prove it.

3:00 – Betfair Chase (Grade 1) – 3m 1 ½ f

A Plus Tard is the class horse of the race on the back of his Gold Cup second. However, this is his seasonal reappearance and he’s yet to win off a 60+ day off.

Bristol De Mai just loves Haydock and this is his Gold Cup, on soft or heavy ground I think he would win but good to soft, has won on it in the past, I’m not sure.

Next Destination, a second season chaser just had the three starts over fences last season and ended last season with a 1½ lengths 2nd of 12 to Galvin in National Hunt Chase at Cheltenham. However, that did come over 5f further and on a stiffer track.

Royal Pagaille is another who goes well here 2-2 and I have long thought this would be an ideal race for the 7-year-old. However, his best form has come on soft/heavy and quicker ground will put his jumping under pressure.

Waiting Patiently has switched from the Ruth Jefferson yard and would be having his first start for Christian Williams. He was never the easiest to keep sound but he’s got the back class to go close if retaining his ability and first time could be time to catch him.

Imperial Aura beat Galvin at the 2020 Cheltenham Festival. He won his first two starts last season but unseated his rider at Kempton and pulled up in the Ryanair Chase on his final start, was said to have bled. Best form so far over shorter but stays 3m and isn’t totally out of it.

Verdict: It’s Bristol De Mai’s Gold Cup and even on good to soft shouldn’t be far away in his bid for a fourth win in the race. Gold Cup runner-up A Plus Tard is the best horse on ratings and has been aimed at this race although he’s tended to need his seasonal reappearance in the past. This could be the day to catch Waiting Patiently on his first start for a new yard. Next Destination was a useful novice chaser last season but a stiffer stamina test would suit him better and Imperial Aura isn’t out of this given he does go well fresh.

Ascot

It’s good, good to soft in places at Ascot.

2:05 – Chanelle Pharma 1965 Chase (Grade 2) – 2m 5f

Just the six are set to go to post for the feature race of Ascot’s seven race card. Dashel Drasher made it 4-4 at Ascot when winning the Grade 1 Ascot Chase in February. Might prefer more ease in the ground ground but has won on good/good to soft in the past. He must give 6lb a way to four of his rivals on his seasonal return but he could be capable of doing it.

Defi Du Seuil twice a Group 1 novice chase winner, including the JLT Novices’ Chase at the 2019 Cheltenham Festival. Won his first three starts the following season including the Grade 1 Tingle Creek at Sandown and the Clarence House here. Two poor runs last season but he’s had wind surgery since and gets that handy 6lb from Dashel Drasher. Looks worth another try back over this trip 5-6 over 2m 5f/2m 5 ½ f.

Lostintranslation was winning the Betfair Chase two years ago and ended that season finishing third in the Gold Cup at Cheltenham. Completely lost his way last season and looked regressive but has had wind surgery since his last start and although this will be on the short side for him if the breathing operation has had the desired effect he can’t be ruled out. He should like the ground and the yard has already revived a couple of horses this season.

Pistol Whipped was in super form in handicap company in the spring winning at Plumpton & Perth before being beaten a nose when 2nd of 18 at Uttoxeter in May. He jumped superbly out of front in Uttoxeter, under top-weight of 11-12. This is a big step up in class for the 7-year-old but he goes well fresh and even more importantly his form figures on good ground are 10112.

Verdict: All the six runners have a few questions to answer. Dashel Drasher makes his seasonal reappearance. Defi Du Seuil and Lostintranslation have questions to answer regarding their well-being. Pistol Whipped has a class question mark against his name but will like the ground and should be fit and ready for this.

2:40 – Coral Hurdle (Registered As The Ascot Hurdle) (Grade 2) – 2m 3 ½ f

Cesarewitch winner Buzz return to hurdling. The 7-year-old ended last season with a 1 ¼ length 2nd of 11 to Abacadabras in the Garde 1 Aintree Hurdle. Could develop into a Stayers Hurdle contender if he wins this. Ground versatile, he’s won here over hurdles and looks the one to beat.

Goshen returns. He going the right way around here but ended last season with poor runs at Cheltenham and Punchestown so has questions to answer and may need softer ground.

Mollys Ollys Wishes has returned this season in great form winning a 7-runner Listed Mares’ Hurdle at Wetherby last month. Might prefer softer ground and this is a lot tougher away from her own sex. However, she’s gets the mares’ allowance and can’t be totally dismissed.

Song For Someone won this 12 months ago on his seasonal reappearance and improved again to win the Garde 2 International Hurdle at Cheltenham the following month. Quicker ground this time and it looks a hotter race than last year.

Verdict: Song For Someone won this last year but this looks a much stronger renewal. Molly Ollys Wishes is in form but this tougher than last time. However, its hard to look beyond Cesarewitch winner Buzz.

3:15 – Gerard Bertrand Hurst Park Handicap Chase (Class 2) – 2m 1f

Just the seven runners for this handicap chase but it’s a competitive looking contest despite the small field.

Before Midnight made all to win at Cheltenham (good) last month. He’s been raised 8lb for that win but there could be more to come from the 8-year-old and he should get another uncontested lead here.

Sky Pirate was 6-lengths behind Before Midnight in second at Cheltenham but does get 8lb here. He shaped like the run was just needed and although he’s 0-4 going right-handed looks set to be go close.

Amoola Gold and Monsieur Lecoq were first and second in a C&D handicap last time. A head separated the pair at the line and Monsieur Lecoq gets 1lb from the winner. There shouldn’t be much between the pair but Amoola Gold does get the first time cheekpieces and his Ascot record is now 121.

Sully D’Oc AA was a well beaten 5^th in the Ascot race but may have needed the race that day and should get closer on better ground but he’s 8lb higher than when winning at the Punchestown Festival.

Paul Nicholls saddled Capeland to win this in 2019 beating one of Nicholls runners Diego Du Charmil. A previous C&D winner Diego Du Charmil had a hurdling campaign last season and likely needed the run when dropping out tamely in the Welsh Champion Hurdle last month. Back over fences and he has won four times on good ground. Dolus’s best run last season came when a 1 length 2^nd of 7 at Sandown in February, off 4lb higher. Well, treated on his best form and has won three times on good ground but shaped poorly on his reappearance at Chepstow last month.

Verdict: You can make some sort of case for all seven runners. There shouldn’t be much between Before Midnight & Sky Pirate on their Cheltenham run with a slight preference for the latter. Dolus and Diego Du Charmil are lurking on good marks, in particular the latter. However, neither come into the race in form.

Betting Advice:

Haydock

1:15 – 1pt win – Our Surprise – 4/1 – Gen

2:25 – 1pt win – Flight Deck – 8/1 @ Bet365 – 0.5pts win – Dans Le Vent – 12/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook and 1pt win – If The Cap Fits – 16/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

Ascot

2:05 – Pistol Whipped – 1pt win – 12/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook

3:15 – 1pt win – Sky Pirate – 9/2 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook and 0.5pts win – Dolus – 16/1 @ Bet365 & Coral

Cheers

John

Hi all,

First selections since Sunday for the service, the races haven’t excited me quality wise and there just hasn’t been anything worth backing at the odds I’m looking at.

The unseasonably dry weather has been taking its toll on field sizes in England this week and continues at Ascot on Friday with just 44 runners on the seven-race card. It’s not much better for Ascot on Saturday either with just 48 runners over seven races. At least Saturday’s Betfair Chase Day card at Haydock has seen 62 runners declared over a seven-race card.

The ground at Ascot today is good, good to soft in places, unusually for this time of the year the ground in the south is drying out as it has at Ascot. I have had a look at four of the races on the Ascot card and have a few selections from the Berkshire track for you.

Ascot

2:05 – Events At Ascot Handicap Chase (Class 2) – 2m 5f

At least we have eight runners here for this handicap chase. Smarty Wild finished 3^rd of 12 here (heavy) last December. The 7-year-old returned from an 8-month absence with a promising 5 length 5th of 11 to Dublin Four in similar race at Newbury 15-days ago. He’s on mark that’s a winnable one but does need to cut out the mistakes. If he, can he won’t be far away.

Pink Legend returns for the first time since winning a Listed Mares’ handicap chase at Cheltenham in April. It was good ground at Cheltenham and the 7-year-old seemed to appreciate the application pf the first time cheekpieces that day. She’s just 2lb higher and should go well.

1pt win – Pink Legend – 9/1 @ Bet365 or 8/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

2:40 – Garden For All Seasons Handicap Hurdle (Class 2) – 1m 7 ½ f

Nine go to post for this handicap hurdle and you can make a solid case for four of them

Captain Morgs won a novice hurdle over C&D last October. Back from a 6-month absence with a 5 ¼ lengths 3rd of 12 Cheltenham on his handicap hurdle debut last month. Could be capable of better here.

Leoncavallo has returned to action in good form when 3^rd of 12 in the Welsh Champion Hurdle at Ffos Las before finishing a 2 ½ lengths 2nd of 14 to Soaring Glory in Listed Handicap Hurdle over C&D 20-days ago. The 9-year-old is up 1lb for his latest effort but can win off this sort of mark.

Highway One O Two won a Grade 2 Novice Hurdle at Kempton in February 2020, his last success. The 6-year-old struggled last season but built on his seasonal reappearance at Chepstow when a 7 ¾ length 5th of 14 to Soaring Glory at Ascot last time. He get’s 3lb from Leoncavallo here and is entitled to get closer to that one here.

Method Madness must be respected on his handicap hurdle. The 6-year-old 1-3 over the smaller obstacles (Ludlow) last season. Finished 2^nd of 10 on his final start of last season at Ffos Las in April.  Should be fit enough on his seasonal return, won off 159-day absence in February, and a mark of 112 looks interesting although he needs to less keen than he was on his last two starts.

1pt win – Method Madness – 10/1 @ Bet365 or 9/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

3:15 – Not Forgotten Handicap Chase (Class 3) – 3m

Kapga De Lily had a good season over fences last season and showed she can run well away from the mud when a 1 length 2^nd of 8 at Haydock on good ground. Seasonal return over 3m and should go well if ready to roll, did win first time up last season, on her seasonal reappearance.

1pt win – Kapga De Lily – 9/2 @ Bet365

3:50 – Royal Ascot Racing Club Novices’ Handicap Hurdle (Class 4) – 2m 5 ½ f

Hidden Depths has won his last two starts at Hereford. Has a 7lb penalty to carry for his last success 10-days ago and should go well again provided this race doesn’t get too tactical.

Getalead is another seeking the hat trick and found plenty for pressure when winning at Warwick just 2-days ago. Both wins have come on good ground and he can race off the same mark. The one to beat, if turning out so quickly but could have had a hard race last time.

Cheers

John

Hi all,

First selections since Sunday for the service, the races haven’t excited me quality wise and there just hasn’t been anything worth backing at the odds I’m looking at.

The unseasonably dry weather has been taking its toll on field sizes in England this week and continues at Ascot on Friday with just 44 runners on the seven-race card. It’s not much better for Ascot on Saturday either with just 48 runners over seven races. At least Saturday’s Betfair Chase Day card at Haydock has seen 62 runners declared over a seven-race card.

The ground at Ascot today is good, good to soft in places, unusually for this time of the year the ground in the south is drying out as it has at Ascot. I have had a look at four of the races on the Ascot card and have a few selections from the Berkshire track for you.

Ascot

2:05 – Events At Ascot Handicap Chase (Class 2) – 2m 5f

At least we have eight runners here for this handicap chase. Smarty Wild finished 3^rd of 12 here (heavy) last December. The 7-year-old returned from an 8-month absence with a promising 5 length 5th of 11 to Dublin Four in similar race at Newbury 15-days ago. He’s on mark that’s a winnable one but does need to cut out the mistakes. If he, can he won’t be far away.

Pink Legend returns for the first time since winning a Listed Mares’ handicap chase at Cheltenham in April. It was good ground at Cheltenham and the 7-year-old seemed to appreciate the application pf the first time cheekpieces that day. She’s just 2lb higher and should go well.

1pt win – Pink Legend – 9/1 @ Bet365 or 8/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

2:40 – Garden For All Seasons Handicap Hurdle (Class 2) – 1m 7 ½ f

Nine go to post for this handicap hurdle and you can make a solid case for four of them

Captain Morgs won a novice hurdle over C&D last October. Back from a 6-month absence with a 5 ¼ lengths 3rd of 12 Cheltenham on his handicap hurdle debut last month. Could be capable of better here.

Leoncavallo has returned to action in good form when 3^rd of 12 in the Welsh Champion Hurdle at Ffos Las before finishing a 2 ½ lengths 2nd of 14 to Soaring Glory in Listed Handicap Hurdle over C&D 20-days ago. The 9-year-old is up 1lb for his latest effort but can win off this sort of mark.

Highway One O Two won a Grade 2 Novice Hurdle at Kempton in February 2020, his last success. The 6-year-old struggled last season but built on his seasonal reappearance at Chepstow when a 7 ¾ length 5th of 14 to Soaring Glory at Ascot last time. He get’s 3lb from Leoncavallo here and is entitled to get closer to that one here.

Method Madness must be respected on his handicap hurdle. The 6-year-old 1-3 over the smaller obstacles (Ludlow) last season. Finished 2^nd of 10 on his final start of last season at Ffos Las in April.  Should be fit enough on his seasonal return, won off 159-day absence in February, and a mark of 112 looks interesting although he needs to less keen than he was on his last two starts.

1pt win – Method Madness – 10/1 @ Bet365 or 9/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

3:15 – Not Forgotten Handicap Chase (Class 3) – 3m

Kapga De Lily had a good season over fences last season and showed she can run well away from the mud when a 1 length 2^nd of 8 at Haydock on good ground. Seasonal return over 3m and should go well if ready to roll, did win first time up last season, on her seasonal reappearance.

1pt win – Kapga De Lily – 9/2 @ Bet365

3:50 – Royal Ascot Racing Club Novices’ Handicap Hurdle (Class 4) – 2m 5 ½ f

Hidden Depths has won his last two starts at Hereford. Has a 7lb penalty to carry for his last success 10-days ago and should go well again provided this race doesn’t get too tactical.

Getalead is another seeking the hat trick and found plenty for pressure when winning at Warwick just 2-days ago. Both wins have come on good ground and he can race off the same mark. The one to beat, if turning out so quickly but could have had a hard race last time.

Cheers

John

Hi all,

A good day at the office with Midnight Shadow and Strictlyadancer ensuring a healthy profit. Hopefully we can end Cheltenham’s November meeting on high today.

The Cheltenham November meeting comes to a conclusion, highlighted by the Grade 2 Shloer Chase (2.20) which will feature Put The Kettle On who won last year’s race and subsequently went on to win the Queen Mother Champion Chase at the festival. The unseasonably dry ground means depressingly small fields at Cheltenham. The Unibet Greatwood Handicap Hurdle (2:55) apart, which has attracted a maximum field of 20, the rest of the card contains just 27 runners.

The second day of Punchestown’s winter festival features the Grade 1 Morgiana Hurdle (2.05) and the Grade 2 Florida Pearl Novice Chase (12:30). There’s also decent looking jumps card at Fontwell with the highlight of a seven-race card being the Southern National Handicap Chase (3:10).

The ITV cameras are covering seven races live, on what looks a good afternoon of sport, four from Cheltenham, two from Fontwell and the Morgiana Hurdle from Punchestown. The latter race has attracted just five runners with the Willie Mullins trained mare Echoes In Rain puting her Champion Hurdles credentials on the line. Her four rivals include stablemate Sharjah, who won this in 2018 and also won first time up last season, and Abacadabras successful in last year’s renewal.

Cheltenham

2:20 – Shloer Chase (Registered As The Cheltenham Chase) (Grade 2) – 2m

Just the four for this year’s renewal. However, the four are Put The Kettle On, Nube Negra, Politologue and Rouge Vif.

There was just ½ length between Put The Kettle On and Nube Negra in last season’s Champion Chase. On today’s ground you can see the latter is fancied to reverse placing with Put The Kettle On.  Politologue is returning from a wind operation but he has gone well fresh in the past and goes well around Cheltenham. His stablemate Rouge Vif is having his first run for the Paul Nicholls yard since a stable switch. He’s the outsider of the four but gets a handy 6lb from his rivals which puts him with a chance and ticks the boxes marked going, track and distance.

Verdict: You can never rule out Put The Kettle On around here but on today’s ground Nube Negra can reverse Champion Chase placings with the mare. However, at the prices I’m taking both on with the Paul Nicholls pair Politologue & Rouge Vif.

1pt win – Politologue – 4/1 – Gen

0.5pts win – Rouge Vif – 13/2 @ Bet365 & Paddy Power

2:55 – Unibet Greatwood Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) – 2m ½ f

Ordinary Joe trained by Nicky Henderson has only had three starts over hurdles and beat three rivals in a Worcester novice hurdle on his last start in May. He’s open to plenty of improvement on his handicap debut and a mark of 133 could well underestimate him. That said I think given his relative inexperience he’s worth taking on especially of he goes off favourite.

There’s been plenty of support for West Cork in the ante post betting. He won two of his five starts over hurdles last season and should go well for a yard that can place a horse to success in handicap hurdles here.

Alan King saddle Tritonic. The 4-year-old so impressive when winning the Garde 2 Adonis Hurdle at Kempton in February. He hasn’t really built on that performance but will be all the better for his seasonal return here at the last meeting and a strongly run race should suit.

Advanced Virgo is very effective on good/good to soft ground. He bounced back to form when back to his best when a 7 ¾ length 5th of 18 on his last start over hurdles at the Listowel Festival and has since finished third on the flat. The 6-year-old’s unexposed over hurdles and a mark of 133 looks more than workable for a shrewd trainer. Daryl Jacob has been booked for the ride which suggests he will come over the race.

Jessie Evans has to be respected. The 5-year-old put in a career best when 2 ¼ lengths 4th of 20 to Saldier in Galway Hurdle in July. He’s run well on the flat since and won a Navan maiden 25-days ago. His experience of a big field handicap hurdle will hold him in good stead here and he’s likely got a nice pot in him over hurdles.

Glory And Fortune had Cormier 6 ½ lengths back in 4^th when winning the Welsh Champion Hurdle at Ffos Las last month. He’s returned to action in great form winning both starts this autumn and although he’s up 8lb for his last win can’t be discounted. Cormier gets a 9lb pull in the weights here and I fancy he can finish in front this time. Trainer Brian Ellison saddled Nietzsche to win this in 2018.

Straw Fan Jack proved to be a useful novice hurdler last season and made a pleasing return to action when a head 2nd of 12 to Samba Dancer over C&D at the last meeting. It was a cracking effort given he was carrying top-weight of 11-12 that day Hes been nudged up 2lb for that effort and this a better race but he’s another with a decent handicap pot in him this season off his present mark. If the 6-year-old was with a more fashionable yard, he wouldn’t be the 25/1 that he is with Bet365 & Coral.

Galice Macalo put in some decent performances in novice company last season and the mare returned from a 7-month layoff with a 1 ¼ length 4th of 9 in handicap hurdle at Chepstow last month. She can race off the same mark here and should be sharper for her last run. Well suited to a sound surface if he settles, could be keen her races last season, she has each way claims.

Verdict: Sadly, the big prices available in midweek have gone with Tom Segal putting up as one of his Pricewise selections. Ordinary Joe could be anything but ordinary but given his relative experience he would have to be a Graded level hurdler to win this. Of those at the front end of the betting my preference is for Advanced Virgo. You can make solid cases for both Glory And Fortune and Cormier. Straw Fan Jack remains overpriced more down to hailing from a small yard than his actual chance.

1pt win – Advanced Virgo – 9/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

0.5pts each way – Straw Fan Jack – 25/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes (both paying 5 places)

0.5pts win – Cormier – 16/1 @ Bet365

Cheers

John

Hi all,

All eyes will be on Cheltenham for day two of the November meeting. Once more ITV are covering four races live from the track. The feature race and big race of the weekend is the is the Paddy Power Gold Cup (2.15) which has £90,032 on offer to the winner. The good prize money has attracted a maximum field of 20 handicap chasers.

The supporting card is good and includes the Grade 2 Triumph Trial Juvenile Hurdle (12.30), a Grade 2 novice chase (1.40) which like yesterday’s novice chase has attracted another poor field of just four runners. There’s also a Mares’ Listed National Hunt Flat races (3:55) that closes the card. Add in another three decent sized handicaps all on live ITV and you have what looks a strong card.

ITV will also show two Listed Flat races from Lingfield, the Golden Rose Stakes (3.05) and the Churchill Stakes (3.40).

In shorter than normal preview I have selections in the four handicaps at Cheltenham and one from Lingfield.

Cheltenham

1:05 – Jewson Tool Hire Amateur Jockeys’ Handicap Chase (Class 3) – 3m 1f

Strictlyadancer is a progressive staying handicap chaser who built on the promise of his Chepstow reappearance when winning over C&D at the last meeting. He’s up 5lb for that win but he’s at the right end of the handicap and remains capable of better.

2:15 – Paddy Power Gold Cup Handicap Chase (Grade 3) – 2m 4f

Protektorat and Lalor head the ante post betting. Protektorat has a touch of class. The 6-year-old won a C&D novice chase at the meeting and won the Grade 1 Manifesto Novices’ Chase at Aintree on his final start of last season. A solid jumper of a fence but he may be found out for speed on a good ground.

Lalor has been one of the best backed horses in the ante post after trainer Paul Nicholls had said in his stable tour that he’d inherited a well handicapped horse from previous trainer Kayley Woollacott. Of the front two in the betting, he appeals more of the pair.

My two against the field are:

Zanza made a pleasing seasonal return when a3 ¾ lengths 3rd of 6 to Eldorado Allen in Haldon Gold Cup at Exeter 11-days ago. The 7-year-old’s form figures on his second run of the season are a healthy 112. He’s unexposed over 2m 4f and the way he races this trip should suit him. Interestingly trainer Philip Hobbs has an excellent record with his runners in November/December having their second seasonal start – 62 winners from 284 runners 22% +104.43 118 placed 42% (+218.86 to BFSP).

Midnight Shadow put in an excellent effort from an 8-month absence when a 2 ½ length third of 8 to Allmankind in Old Roan Chase at Aintree last time.

He travelled like a nicely handicapped horse through the race and was upsides the race fit winner Allmankind two out. The 8-year-old only lost second in the final strides and will be all the better for that run. Would have been a good winner of the Caspian Caviar Gold Cup here last December but for the presence of Chatham Street Lad. Just 1lb higher than in the Old Roan Chase and looks a big player.

2:50 – Paddy Power Games Handicap Hurdle (Listed Race) – 3m

Ballymillsy returned from a 7-month absence with a win in a Newton Abbot handicap hurdle last month. The 5-year-old is up 8lb for that win but could yet develop into a very useful staying hurdler.

Onagatheringstorm won two of his three starts in novice company in the spring. He returned for the first time since May 11 lengths 3rd of 8 in novice over C&D last month. Looks the sort to do better over fences in time but better can be expected on his handicap debut for n inform yard.

3:25 – Paddy Power Feel Like A Favourite Intermediate Handicap Hurdle (Class 3) – 2m 5f

Aside from the feature race this looks the most competitive race on today’s card.

Pyramid Place hails from the inform Milton Harris yard.  The 4-year-old proved a useful juvenile hurdler last season winning three of his eight starts and returned from a 6-month layoff with a ¾ length 2^nd of 11 at Chepstow last month. He has stamina for 2m 5f to prove and might be better with more ease in the ground but he showed at Chepstow that could be effective on good ground.

As we saw on Friday its worth keeping the Irish raiders onside so you must respect the claims of Capilano Bridge. The 6-year-old won a heavy ground handicap hurdle at Naas in January off 16lb lower and ended last season with a 12 lengths 2nd of 25 to an improving young hurdler at the Punchestown Festival. He showed he stayed 3m at Punchestown so there are no stamina issues and Shane Fitzgerald takes off a handy 5lb. Set for a big run if ready to roll on his seasonal return.

Lingfield

3:40 – Churchill Stakes (Listed Race) (All Weather Championships Fast-Track Qualifier) (Class 1) – 1m 2f

Pyledriver is the class act of the race having won the Group 1 Coronation Cup at Epsom on his last start in June. Has a 7lb Group 1 penalty to give away to his nine rivals today and he could find the trip on the sharp side around here.

No issues with the distance for Felix who finished runner-up in the Winter Derby Trial and the Winter Derby over C&D early in the year and then finished a 4-length 3^rd of 12 in the Group 1 Dubai Turf at Meydan on World Cup night. Two low key efforts on grass in June/July and returns from a 119-day break. However, the 5-year-old has gone well fresh and won off an even longer absence in January.

Dubai Warrior won this race last year when trained by John Gosden and that was his third C&D win. Not anywhere his best on two starts early in the year for previous yard. Has since switched to the David Loughnane yard and he wasn’t much better on his first start for his new yard when last of 10 in a Group 3 at Dundalk in September. He likely needed his first start since March last time but you have liked to have seen him run better than he did. Foolish to totally dismiss back over a C&D that suits and if he was to bounce back to last year’s best he would be hard to beat.

Betting Advice:

Cheltenham

1:05 – 1pt win – Strictlyadancer – 9/2 @ Bet365

2:15 – 1pt win – Midnight Shadow- 12/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes and 1pt win – Zanza – 10/1 @ Bet365

2:50 – 1pt win – Ballymillsy – 5/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes and 1pt win – Onagatheringstorm – 8/1 @ Bet365

3:25 – 0.5pts win – Pyramid Place -12/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes and 0.5pts win win – Capilano Bridge – 18/1 @ Coral & Paddy Power

Lingfield

3:40 – 0.5pts win – Dubai Warrior – 9/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook

Cheers

John