Category: Victor Value

Hi all,

Cape Du Nord & Our Power were first & third respectively in the big Kempton Handicap Chase yesterday. A small profit on the day and the service will end the month with another profit following on from January’s. How much profit will be decided today as I have a handful of selections running today.

The race of the day either side of the Irish Sea this afternoon is the Grade 2 National Spirit Hurdle (2:50) at Fontwell. A race where the Paul Nicholls trained Monmiral bids to get his career back on track.  Its not Fontwell that provides today’s selections but Naas and Hereford.

Continue reading “Victor’s Sunday Selections – February 27th 2022”

Hi all,

There’s likely to be a few more Cheltenham Festival clues at Kempton on Saturday. There’s some great prize money on offer on Kempton’s seven race card which contains three Grade 2 contests. The Coral Adonis Juvenile Hurdle (1:50), the Coral Pendil Novices’ Chase (2.25) and the Sky Bet Dovecote Novices’ Hurdle (3:00). The most valuable race on the card though is the Grade 3 Coral Trophy Handicap Chase (3:37) which has £85,425 on offer to the winner.

The marathon Vertem Eider (4m 1 ½f) is the highlight of a seven-race card at Newcastle Newcastle’s card. There’s also some quality all-weather action at Lingfield with feature race being the Group 3 Betway Winter Derby (2.05)

The ITV cameras are covering the best of the action from Kempton, Lingfield and Newcastle on a eight race programme.

It’s a shorter Saturday preview than usual and I have concentrated on those races where I have selections. As ever my betting advice can be found at the bottom of the main piece.

Kempton

The going at Kempton is good to soft.

1:15 – Coral ‘Fail-To-Finish’ Free Bets Handicap Chase (Challenger Middle Distance Chase Series Qualifier) (Class 3) – 2m 4 ½ f

Le Cameleon took advantage of a drop-in class and falling mark when beating seven rivals at Fontwell 19-days ago. He’s up 3lb for that success and in higher grade today but he’s only a 7-year-old and remains capable of better.

Patroclus was a non-runner at Newbury on Sunday due to soft ground. He will be better suited by today’s good to soft going. A winner on just his second start over fences at Leicester last time. He’s only been raised 3lb for that win and is open to plenty of improvement over the larger obstacles.

Flegmatik comfortably won here over 3m last time. He’s up 7lb but could still be well be ahead of the handicapper although I’m not sure he wants the drop back to an extended 2m 3 ½ f.

3:37 – Coral Trophy Handicap Chase (Grade 3) – 3m

The valuable 3m Handicap Chase run at Kempton on Saturday is on its sixth different sponsor in as many years. This year its Coral who have taken over the mantle of sponsorship.

Christian Williams has a couple of lively contenders in Cap Du Nord who looks nicely handicapped on his 3 ¼ length 2^nd of 11 to Royale Pagaille over C&D last season. However, he was 6 ½ length behind Mister Malarky in last year’s race. The other Williams runner is Five Star Getaway who beat recent Ascot winner Fortescue over C&D two starts back. He’s since finished 3^rd of 8 at Sandown so remains in good form.

Annsam won the Howden Silver Cup Handicap Chase at Ascot, off 6lb lower, in December. That was just his fifth start over fences and his second start over 3m. Despite his weight rise he remains with potential. Trainer form is a bit of a concern with Evan Williams being 1-25 in the past two weeks.

Galahad Quest has looked in the grip of the handicapper of late. However, he shapes like he’s worth a go over 3m and if the step up in trip can eke out some improvement, he could run well.

Our Power made it 2-4 over fences when beating three rivals at Huntingdon last month. It was heavy that day but he has also won on good ground so there are no issues with the drying ground. Has always convinced with his jumping and that will be tested in today’s bigger field. Has won here over hurdles in the past. Stay 2m 5f but stamina for three mile is an unknown. If he stays, he won’t be far away.

Phoenix Way got a good ride from Kevin Brogan when winning at Ascot last month. His Ascot win came when dropped to back 2m 5f. Stays 3m as he showed when a 4 ¼ length 2^nd of 15 to Annsam two starts back. Might struggle to beat an inform Annsam, on the same terms, over today’s trip  

The Big Breakaway is another who was back to form last time when a 1 ¼ length 4th of 8 to The Brimming Water over hurdles at Newbury last time. Highly tried in novice chase company last season, including finishing third to Monkfish in the RSA at Cheltenham Festival and runner-up to Shan Blue over C&D. This race has been the plan and he could be well treated in the first time cheekpieces for his handicap chase debut.

Verdict: Cape Du Nord is nicely treated on his best form of last season and stablemate Five Star Getaway could also be capable of further progress over 3m. The progressive Our Power needs to improve again for the step up to 3m. However, if his jumping holds up and he stays then he’s high on the shortlist.

Newcastle

The going at Newcastle is good to soft.

3:15 – Vertem Eider Handicap Chase (GBB Race) (Class 2) – 4m 1 ½ f

Danilo D’Airy completed a hat trick of wins, after a 7-month layoff, when winning at Ffos Las in December. Low key run over hurdles last time but the 9-year-old is a much better chaser than a hurdler. Has gone up 15lb since his last win but he’s going the right way and if he stays the trip is the one to be with.

Eclair Surf won the Classic Chase at Warwick last month. He’s been raised 10lb for that success but is his lightly raced staying chaser but looks capable of winning another big pot. He did appreciate genuinely soft ground at Warwick but today’s ground should be fine.

Irish raider History Of Fashion has just had four starts over fences getting off the mark on his handicap chase debut for the first time at Down Royal last month. Raced last time like a marathon trip could prove ideal and on ground that will suit, should run well.

Verdict: Éclair Surf brings the best into the race and his claims are clear for all to see. I’m slightly concerned about the drying ground though. Which means I reluctantly pass him over for Danilo D’Airy and History Of Fashion.

Betting Advice:

Kempton

1:15 – 1pt win – Le Cameleon – 8/1 @ Bet365 & Paddy Power

3:37 – 1pt win – Cap Du Nord – 13/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes and 1pt win Our Power – 14/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

Newcastle

3:15 – 1pt win – Danilo D’Airy – 8/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes and 1pt win – History Of Fashion – 13/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

Cheers

John

Hi all,

After two none runners on Wednesday I have a couple of selections in this afternoon’s Devon National at Exeter.

Exeter

3:50 – Virgin Bet Devon National Handicap Chase (Class 3) – 3m 6 ½ f

A field of 13 are set to meet the starter for this marathon contest.

Wayfinder was a 12-length runner-up to recent Sandown winner Dr Kananga at Chepstow last time. He finished clear of the rest that day and 8-year-old and ran like he can improve for the step up in trip.

Pemberley, a winner on his second start after an 11-month absence at Warwick in December has since finished runner-up in the Sussex National at Plumpton and was making steady progress from the rear when falling three out in the Surrey National. He’s got be respected for the inform Emma Lavelle yard.

Who’s In The Box was below his best on his first three starts this season. However, he was well backed before the North Yorkshire Grand National at Catterick (16/5 favourite). The market anticipated a much better run and they got it as  the 8-year-old finished a 4 ¾ length 3rd of 8 to. The winner of last season’s Lincolnshire National, off 3lb lower, is on a competitive mark and softer ground will suit him.

Samuel Jackson won this race 12 months ago and can race off the same mark today. A good 3^rd of 8 at Bangor on his seasonal return before suffering an overreach here on his next start. In better form when a 6 ½ length 4^th of 15 to The Galloping Bear in the Surrey National Last time. This has likely been the 10-year-old target all season.

Classic Bear and The Two Amigos haven’t enjoyed victory for a long time but they are weighted to be contenders. Classic Ben has gone three years since tasting success. The 9-year-old was in the lead when falling three out here last month. It was too far from the finish to say that he would have won but he was still going well at the time. Slight question mark over stamina but respected.

The Two Amigos has also gone over three years since his last win. However, he has run plenty of good races in the meantime, including when 3-length 2^nd of 18 in last seasons Welsh Grand National. Now 8lb lower.  A well beaten 2^nd of 7 at Haydock last time but he’s down in class here and the previous C&D winner’s stamina is guaranteed. Too well treated to ignore despite his yards form.

Verdict:  Of the less exposed horses Pemberley has claims. Last year’s winner Samuel Jackson is respected in his bid for back-to-back wins in the race. Who’s In The Box stays well, is on a competitive mark and has each way claims. Hard to split Classic Ben & The Two Amigos but the latter’s guaranteed stamina just edges it for me.

1pt win – The Two Amigos – 10/1 @ Bet365 or 8/1- Gen

0.5pts each way – Who’s In The Box – 14/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes (both paying 4 places 1/5 odds)

Cheers

John

Hi all,

After two none runners on Wednesday I have a couple of selections in this afternoon’s Devon National at Exeter.

Exeter

3:50 – Virgin Bet Devon National Handicap Chase (Class 3) – 3m 6 ½ f

A field of 13 are set to meet the starter for this marathon contest.

Wayfinder was a 12-length runner-up to recent Sandown winner Dr Kananga at Chepstow last time. He finished clear of the rest that day and 8-year-old and ran like he can improve for the step up in trip.

Pemberley, a winner on his second start after an 11-month absence at Warwick in December has since finished runner-up in the Sussex National at Plumpton and was making steady progress from the rear when falling three out in the Surrey National. He’s got be respected for the inform Emma Lavelle yard.

Who’s In The Box was below his best on his first three starts this season. However, he was well backed before the North Yorkshire Grand National at Catterick (16/5 favourite). The market anticipated a much better run and they got it as  the 8-year-old finished a 4 ¾ length 3rd of 8 to. The winner of last season’s Lincolnshire National, off 3lb lower, is on a competitive mark and softer ground will suit him.

Samuel Jackson won this race 12 months ago and can race off the same mark today. A good 3^rd of 8 at Bangor on his seasonal return before suffering an overreach here on his next start. In better form when a 6 ½ length 4^th of 15 to The Galloping Bear in the Surrey National Last time. This has likely been the 10-year-old target all season.

Classic Bear and The Two Amigos haven’t enjoyed victory for a long time but they are weighted to be contenders. Classic Ben has gone three years since tasting success. The 9-year-old was in the lead when falling three out here last month. It was too far from the finish to say that he would have won but he was still going well at the time. Slight question mark over stamina but respected.

The Two Amigos has also gone over three years since his last win. However, he has run plenty of good races in the meantime, including when 3-length 2^nd of 18 in last seasons Welsh Grand National. Now 8lb lower.  A well beaten 2^nd of 7 at Haydock last time but he’s down in class here and the previous C&D winner’s stamina is guaranteed. Too well treated to ignore despite his yards form.

Verdict:  Of the less exposed horses Pemberley has claims. Last year’s winner Samuel Jackson is respected in his bid for back-to-back wins in the race. Who’s In The Box stays well, is on a competitive mark and has each way claims. Hard to split Classic Ben & The Two Amigos but the latter’s guaranteed stamina just edges it for me.

1pt win – The Two Amigos – 10/1 @ Bet365 or 8/1- Gen

0.5pts each way – Who’s In The Box – 14/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes (both paying 4 places 1/5 odds)

Cheers

John

Hi all,

A couple of winners yesterday courtesy of Ajero at Taunton and Call The Tune at Navan.  I’m in with another couple of selections today.

The Grade 3 Quevega Mares Hurdle (1:00) gets an eight-race card at Punchestown underway. Just the six mares have been declared but they include several Cheltenham hopefuls including Burning Victory and Dysart Diamond.

This side of the Irish Sea. There’s a decent card at Doncaster with the highlight being leg two of the Veterans’ Chase Series (3.25). Sadly, it’s a card beset by a lack of runners with just 37 being declared for the seven races. 

Today’s first selection goes in the veteran’s race at Doncaster.

Doncaster

3:25 – Despite just the six runners it looks the best race of the day this side of the Irish Sea. There are few inform runners. Belami Des Pictons runner-up at Exeter in the first leg of the series 10-days ago. Chirico Vallis put in a career best effort over fences when a 14-length 3^rd of 15 to Éclair Surf in the Classic Chase at Warwick last month.

Up Helly Aa King had shaped well when a 4^th of 11 at Haydock in December. However, he ran poorly back at the same venue 55-days ago. A question mark after that run but he’s down to a winnable mark.

Dingo Dollar was a ¾-length 2nd of 22 in last season’s Scottish Grand National at Ayr. He hasn’t run badly on either start this season finishing a 9 ½ length 3^rd of 12 to Aye Right in Rehearsal Chase at Newcastle at the end of November. He’s heading for the Aintree Grand National and a win here would guarantee his place in the field.  A C&D winner, when trained by Alan King, the slight concern would be very testing ground for him. Apart from that I think he can win this on the way to Aintree.   

1pt win – Dingo Dollar – 11/4 – Gen

Ludlow

4:10 – Neon Moon seemed to respond well to the fitting of the first-time blinkers when stepping back up to 2m 4f at Plumpton (soft) last time. He comfortably saw off 7 rivals that day and the 1f step up in distance should be plus on pedigree. Has a 7lb penalty to carry for his Plumpton success but of the headgear continues to have the desired he looks a shade of value to follow up here.

1pt win – Neon Moon – 15/2 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook

Cheers

John

Hi all,

The Russian Doyen made it a profitable a profitable weekend for the service when winning at Newbury on Sunday. Navan’s decent Sunday card which was cancelled due to waterlogging has been re-scheduled for today. On Sunday, I gave you three selections on the Navan card and I might as well put them up again although I have to say the price on one of them isn’t as good as it was on Sunday. There’s also a Class 2 handicap hurdle at Taunton that interests me.

Navan

2:20 – BetVictor Boyne Hurdle (Grade 2) – 2m 5f

Ronald Pump, an 8-length runner-up to Honeysuckle in the Grade 1 Hatton’s Grace at Punchestown on his seasonal return, needs to bounce back from two dismal races in December. If he can return to form, he would have a good chance here.

Ashdale Bob, a smart hurdler, hadn’t really taken to fences on his first three starts this season. However, he was back to something like his best when 9 ¾ length 3rd of 9 to Royal Kahala in the Galmoy Hurdle at Gowran Park last time.

Longhouse Poet is an interesting contender returned to the smaller obstacles. The 8-year-old jumped well to to win the Thyestes Handicap Chase at Gowran Park last month. He’s not out of this on his old hurdles form and if he reproduces his improved chase form to the smaller obstacles, he would go close.

1pt win – Longhouse Poet – 7/1 @ Bet365 or 6/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

4:05 – BetVictor Ten Up Novice Chase (Grade 2) – 3m

This looks between the Gordon Elliott pair of Farouk D’alene & Run Wild Fred. Farouk D’alene has 8lb to find with the latter on official ratings but he’s only had three starts over fences. A winner here (2m 4f) on his chase debut. He’s since finished runner-up to Master McShee in a Grade 1 at Limerick and a 1 ¼ length 2nd of 7 to Stattler in Grade 3 novice at Naas last time. He was just beaten by a stronger stayer on the run-in at Naas but he looks a Graded chase winner in waiting. Run Wild Fred won the Troytown Handicap Chase over C&D and is better than he was able to show in a Grade 1 at Leopardstown over Christmas.

Beacon Edge won the Grade 1 Drinmore Novices Chase at Fairyhouse in November. He fell at the sixth in the Grade 1 won by Galopin des Champs at the Dublin Racing festival last time. He’s got to be respected but does have to give the Elliott pair 7lb here which will be no easy task.

There are also three big field handicaps on the card and I have fancies in two of them

2:55 – Uknowcarty has been a steady improver on his last four starts over hurdles. The 5-year-old posted a career best when a 12-length 2nd of 16 in a Fairyhouse maiden hurdle 22-days ago. Today’s extra furlong should suit on his handicap hurdle debut.

1pt win – Uknowcarty – 9/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

4:40 – All Class bid for the hat trick after wins at Punchestown and back over hurdles here in December. Likely to be a short-priced favourite even though she’s been raised 18lb after her Punchestown handicap chase success. However, given connections there’s every chance that there’s more to come from the mare.

I’m going to take on the favourite with another improving handicap chaser in Call The Tune. The 8-year-old has only had three starts over fences and put in his best performance over the larger obstacles when a ½-length 3rd of 18 in a novice handicap chase at Naas three weeks ago. The step up to 3m looks ideal, as his best performance over hurdles came over 3m on heavy ground. With a decent round of jumping, he looks sure to go well. Call The Tune was 6/1 when I put up on Sunday but sadly a more skinny price now.

1pt win – Call The Tune – 4/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

Taunton

3:40 – Timberman & Fontana Ellissiare the front two in the overnight betting. Timberman won a handicap hurdle at Kempton (good) on his last start back in November. Up 6lb and not out of this but he was well suited by a strong gallop that day which he doesn’t seem likely here.

Fontana Ellissi was back to his best when winning a Ffos Las handicap hurdle three weeks ago. The 6-year-old has been raised 5lb for that success but can remain competitive if this sharp track isn’t an inconvenience.

Top weight Langer Dan is the class horse in the race. The 6-year-old is having his first start since finishing a 2 ¼ length second of 22 to Galopin des Champs in Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle at last season’s Cheltenham Festival. A race at the festival is on his agenda again should come through this race ok. He would have a decent chance but will likely need this run to blow away the cobwebs.

Ajero an improving hurdler at this last time last year, winning at Market Rasen and Huntingdon (off today’s mark). The 7-year-old wasn’t at his best when pulling up on his seasonal return at Ascot in October but shaped a little better when a 7 ½ length 4th of 5 to Onemorefortheroad at Huntingdon 105-days ago. This track should suit him and hopefully he will be ridden more prominently than he was last time. He’s weighted to go close here if trainer Kim Bailey has him back to last season’s best.

1pt win – Ajero –  13/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

Cheers

John

Hi all,

Fiddlerontheroof couldn’t do it for us at Ascot but The Galloping Bear did the business for us in the Grand National Trial at Haydock.

Onto Sunday’s action. There’s a decent card at Newbury but the quality action is across the Irish Sea at Navan. The feature races of an eight race Navan card are a pair of Grade 2 races:  BetVictor Boyne Hurdle (2:20) and the BetVictor Ten Up Novice Chase (4:05).

I have had a quick look at the two big races at Navan and I have selections from Navan and Newbury for you which you can find at the bottom of the main piece.

Navan

2:20 – BetVictor Boyne Hurdle (Grade 2) – 2m 5f

Ronald Pump, an 8-length runner-up to Honeysuckle in the Grade 1 Hatton’s Grace at Punchestown on his seasonal return, needs to bounce back from two dismal races in December. If he can return to form, he would have a good chance here. Longhouse Poet is an interesting contender returned to the smaller obstacles. The 8-year-old jumped well to to win the Thyestes Handicap Chase at Gowran Park last month. He’s not out of this on his old hurdles form and if he reproduces his improved chase form to the smaller obstacles, he would go close here.

4:05 – BetVictor Ten Up Novice Chase (Grade 2) – 3m

This looks between the Gordon Elliott pair of Farouk D’alene & Run Wild Fred. Farouk D’alene has 8lb to find with the latter on official ratings but he’s only had three starts over fences. A winner here (2m 4f) on his chase debut. He’s since finished runner-up to Master McShee in a Grade 1 at Limerick and a 1 ¼ length 2nd of 7 to Stattler in Grade 3 novice at Naas last time. He was just beaten by a stronger stayer on the run-in at Naas but he looks a Graded chase winner in waiting. Run Wild Fred won the Troytown Handicap Chase over C&D and is better than he was able to show in a Grade 1 at Leopardstown over Christmas.

Beacon Edge won the Grade 1 Drinmore Novices Chase at Fairyhouse in November. He fell at the sixth in the Grade 1 won by Galopin des Champs at the Dublin Racing festival last time. He’s got to be respected but does have to give the Elliott pair 7lb here which will be no easy task.

There are also three big field handicaps on the card and I have fancies in two of them

2:55 – Uknowcarty has been a steady enough improver on his last four starts over hurdles. The 5-year-old posted a career best when a 12-length 2nd of 16 in a Fairyhouse maiden hurdle 22-days ago. Today’s extra furlong should suit on his handicap hurdle debut.

4:40 – All Class bid for the hat trick after wins at Punchestown and back over hurdles here in December. Likely to be a short-priced favourite even though she’s been raised 18lb after her Punchestown handicap chase success. However, given connections there’s every chance that there’s more to come from the mare.

I’m going to take on the favourite with another improving handicap chaser in Call The Tune. The 8-year-old has only had three starts over fences and put in his best performance over the larger obstacles when a ½-length 3rd of 18 in a novice handicap chase at Naas three weeks ago. The step up to 3m looks ideal, as his best performance over hurdles came over 3m on heavy ground. With a decent round of jumping, he looks sure to go well.

Newbury

A six-race card for a rare Sunday jumps card at the Berkshire track where the ground is being described as soft. Four of the six races are handicaps. They look competitive enough but have fancies in a couple of them.

3:40 – Another Crick took advantage of the handicapper’s leniency when beating six rivals at Wincanton last month. He hasn’t been the easiest to keep sound but only been raised 2lb for that success and was competitive off much higher marks last season. There’s a good chance he will go close again here.

Russian Doyen is on a losing run that goes back to January 2019 but he does hail from the inform Jeremy Scott yard. The 9-year-old put in his best effort since joining the yard when a 4 ¼ length 2nd of 8 over C&D two starts back. He jumped solidly that day and was only beaten by an improver that day. Not as good when only 4^th of 10 back over hurdles at Taunton 29-days ago. Has the back class to win this on the very best of his form and should go well.

4:15 – Eight have been declared for what’s an intriguing looking 2m 6 ½ f novices limited handicap chases. You can give all eight some sort of chance on the best of their form.

Nicky Henderson has the first two in the bookies early bird list: Bothwell Bridge & Patroclus. The former jumped nicely to win on his chase debut at Sandown in December. He was raised 5lb for that win but did look a nice chase prospect that day and open to more improvement. Made a mistake at the first before falling at the second at Kempton last time. Patroclus pulled up on his chase debut over C&D on his seasonal return but ran much better when finding plenty for pressure to prevail at Leicester 18-days ago. He’s up 3lb for that success and back up in trip here but is capable of better over fences.

Nestor Park is 0-9 over fences but he’s on what looks fair mark on the best of last season’s form and two of his best RPR’s have come at Newbury. He stays further than 3m, finished a neck 2^nd of 14 in the 3m 2f Mandarin Handicap Chase here last season and finished third in this year’s renewal. He wouldn’t be winning out of turn but remains vulnerable to more unexposed rivals.

The Venetia Williams trained Burrows Park would look nicely treated on the best of his handicap hurdle form but there was little encouragement to be taken from the 10-year-old’s chase debut Chepstow earlier this month.

Young Bull is the one that could be worth taking a chance on here.The 8-year-old a useful hurdler, winning three times all on soft ground. He looked the type do better over fences than hurdles and shaped with promise on both chase starts last season. Finishing a 7 ½ length 3^rd of 18 to Demachine before finishing a 3 ¾ length 2^nd to that one at Ascot on his next start. He’s been off since that run in November 2020 so has a big absence to overcome here and you must take on trust his well-being. However, if he’s retained his ability, he will surely win races over fences.

Betting Advice:

Navan

2:20 – 1pt win – Longhouse Poet – 15/2 @ Bet365 or 7/1 @ Coral

2:55 – 1pt win – Uknowcarty – 9/2 @ Bet365

4:40 – 1pt win – Call The Tune – 6/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

Newbury

3:40 – 1pt win – Russian Doyen – 6/1 @ Bet365

4:15 – 1pt win – Young Bull – 7/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

Cheers

John

Hi all,

There’s plenty of top flight sport on offer on Saturday. Down at Ascot, it’s the final Grade 1 in Britain before the Cheltenham Festival the Ascot Chase (3.35), which could include King George VI. Among the entries are Saint Calvados, Mister Fisher and last year’s winner Dashel Drasher. The Ascot card also features the Grade 2 Reynoldstown Novices’ Chase (1.50).

The Grand National Trial (2.40) is the feature race of a seven-race card at Haydock. The big race action is completed by the Grade 2 Rendlesham Hurdle (2:05) and the Victor Ludorum Juvenile Hurdle (1:30).

There’s further big race action at Wincanton with the Grade 2 Kingwell Hurdle (3:20) where the mercurial Goshen could take on lively Champion Hurdle outsider Adagio.

Across the Irish Sea its Red Mills Day at Gowran Park. The 2m 4f Red Mills Chase is the highlight of a card that also includes a Grade 3 two-mile hurdle.

There’s a possibility that the stormy weather will play havoc with Saturday’s action. Wincanton has suffered wind damage which made the track unraceable on Friday. The track will hold a morning inspection to see if racing can take place. Haydock will also hold a precautionary 8am inspection to see if racing can go ahead.

The going is being described as heavy at Haydock. Thankfully no problems are being forecast at Ascot where the going is soft. At Wincanton the going is being described as soft, good to soft for Kingwell Hurdle Day but if the wind continues to blow it could flip the other way according to the Clerk of the Course.

Given uncertainty over the forecast I have just focused on a handful races at Ascot and Haydock. As ever my betting advice is at the end of the main piece.

Haydock

The ground is going to be very deep today if they do race here today. Small fields are the order of the day at Haydock with just 48 runners declared for a seven-race card.

2:05 – William Hill Rendlesham Hurdle (Grade 2) – 3m ½ f

Third Wind built on the promise of his Ascot reappearance in December when a 7 ¾ lengths 3rd of 7 to Sporting John in a Pertemps Series Qualifiers at Warwick last month. He won this race 12 months ago and flat track like Haydock really suits. It was soft ground when he won 12 months ago but he should be fine on heavy.

2:40 – William Hill Grand National Trial Handicap Chase (Grade 3) – 3m 4 ½ f

Eleven are set to meet the starter for a race which will likely see few finishers.

Secret Reprieve is a best priced 4/1 and last season’s Welsh Grand National winner was off for 12 months before running in that race this season. Lack of race fitness told in the final stages and he eventually finished a well-beaten fifth of 20. Better expected and he remains capable of better.

Blaklion has taken advantage of falling mark to win his last two starts, both here, including C&D. The handicapper has had his say since raising him 11lb for his last success. The 13-year-old will, like the ground and he has finished runner-up in the race twice in the past.

Sam Brown was runner-upto Royale Pagaille here in the Peter Marsh Chase last month. He likely had a hard race that day which is a concern. That said he likes it here and shouldn’t be far away. to be staying on well into third and if he stays today’s longer trip will be thereabouts.

Lord De Mesnil twice a C&D winner, including this race 12 months, he also finished runner-up in 2020, off 1lb lower. Best effort this season came when a 1 ½ length 2^nd of 9 in the Rowland Meyrick at Wetherby. Might have been feeling the effect of a hard race when below form in the Peter Marsh Chase here last month. Effective on heavy ground but the yard are struggling for winners.

Mint Condition a winner here over 2m 6f on heavy ground two starts back before struggling when a 24 ½ lengths fourth of 5 to Threeunderthrufive in a Grade 2 at Warwick last month. Going and track no problem for the 8-year-old who looks nicely treated but stamina is a big unknown.

Enqarde won the Tommy Whittle here over an extended 3m 1f in December. He’s now 9lb higher than last time but has been trained for the race. He finished his race off strongly last time but 3m 4 ½ in what’s sure to be testing ground asks another question of the 8-year-old.

There was plenty to like about the Galloping Bear’s attitude in beating 14 rivals to land the Surrey National at Lingfield last month. Well suited to testing ground, he clearly stays well and is unexposed over marathon trips. The 9-year-old is 5lb higher than last time but looks set for another big run provided he didn’t have to hard a race last time.

Time To Get Up looked a progressive staying handicap chaser when winning the Midlands National at Uttoxeter over 4m last season so no stamina issues for the lightly raced 9-year-old. It was good to soft when he won at Uttoxeter but he also won on heavy at Wincanton last season so he should be fine on the ground. However, a poor  run in the Grand Sefton over the National fences on his only start this season is a worry.

Ascot

1:50 – Bateaux London Reynoldstown Novices’ Chase (Grade 2) – 3m

All six runners look fairly evenly matched on official ratings.

Doyen Breed a winner at Hexham in November posted a career best on RPR’s when a 3 ½ lengths 2nd of 5 to Threeunderthrufive in the Grade 2 Hampton Novices’ Chase at Warwick last time. He was probably was a shade flattered to get as a close as he did that day but he’s only a seven-year-old and is open to further progress over the larger obstacles.

2:25 – greatbritishstallionshowcase.co.uk Swinley Chase (A Limited Handicap) – 3m

A competitive looking nine runner Listed handicap chase. Regal Encore won this in 2018 and was only beaten a head last year, off 10lb higher. Really poor effort over C&D last time and he is 14 now. This seems likely to be his last race and the handicapper has given the old boy a chance.

Fiddlerontheroof runs here rather than the shorter Grade 1 Ascot Chase later on the card. Runner-up to Monkfish at last season’s RSA at the Cheltenham Festival. The 8-year-old made a winning seasonal reappearance in the Colin Parker Intermediate Chase and then posted a career best when a ½ length 2^nd of 21 in the Ladbroke Trophy at Newbury last time. Now 5lb higher but has a handicap chase like this in him even off his revised mark.

Cobolobo two best RPR’s have come on soft ground over C&D. The 10-year-old put in a seasonal best when beaten a nose here last time and he might well have prevailed that day but for a mistake at the last. This a better race but given his course form he’s got each way claims.

Hold That Taught is interesting. The 7-year-old looked an improving handicap chaser when winning at Carlisle on his seasonal return, off 4lb lower. Ran like a non-stayer when pulling up in the Welsh Grand National (17/2) two starts back. He didn’t run much better in a novice chase at Ludlow last time though. Better than he’s been able to show on his last two starts and the more testing ground the better his chance.

Caribean Boy a faller at the first over C&D two starts back proved he stayed 3m when winning an 8-runner handicap chase at Kempton (soft) last month. Up 4lb and up in class here but he’s unexposed over the distance and should be there or thereabouts.

3:00 – Dingley’s Promise Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race) (Class 2) – 2m 3 ½ f

Good Risk At All looks sure to be popular here after finishing strongly over 2m at Warwick (good to soft) on his handicap hurdle debut last time. The step up to an extended 2m 3f should suit the lightly raced 6-year-old who won a bumper on soft last season. He’s up just 3lb for last time and connections will be disappointed if he can’t take advantage of a good mark.

His biggest rivals look to be Zacony Rebel & Cap Du Mathan. Zacony Rebelhas progressed with each his three starts over hurdle this season and comfortably saw off 11 rivals when winning over 2m at Ludlow last month. The 7-year-old looks capable of further improvement for the step up in trip.

Cap Du Mathan comes into the race bidding for the hat trick after wins at Plumpton & Taunton. That latter success came after 2 years off the track. He’s up 9lb for his Taunton win but goes well on soft/heavy ground and could still be a head of the handicapper.

3:38 – Betfair Ascot Chase (Grade 1) – 2m 5f

Eight for the days feature race. The betting is headed by Irish raider Fakir D’oudairies. Last season’s Ryanair Chase runner-up and Aintree Grade 1 winner. He’s the one to beat here but he can’t afford to make a mistake like he did at the first when runner-up to Allaho in a Grade 2 at Thurles last time.

Saint Calvados looked like he might cause a bit of surprise when making rapid headway to lead four out in the King George VI Chase at Kempton last time. However, that big move took its toll in the latter stages and he eventually finished third. This is more his trip and he’s very effective on soft ground. Has a Grade 1 in him when all the cards fall right.

Mister Fisher was let down by his jumping when it mattered last season.  No problems with his jumping when cozily seeing off Eldorado Allen to win the Grade 2 Silviniaco Conti Chase at Kempton last month. A single digit field suits the 8-year-old but he is 0-5 in a Grade 1 company and he may prefer a slightly better surface.

Last year’s winner Dashel Drasher is a four-time winner at the track and given his course form and battling attitude always must be respected.  A short-head second of 6 to Two For Gold in Fleur De Lys Chase at Lingfield last time. He 6lb better off with the winner here and should reverse placings with that one. This looks a better race than the won he last year so the 9-year-old will likely need to post a career best to win.  Should get an uncontested lead here though and is respected for that reason.

Fanion D’Estruval has put in excellent efforts under big weights in handicap company on his last two starts. Both those efforts when winning at Newbury and then finishing runner-up over C&D last time were career bests. He looks well worth his place in Graded company on ratings and isn’t ruled out easily.

Betting Advice:

Haydock

2:40 – 1pt win – The Galloping Bear – 7/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes and 0.5pts win – Enqarde – 12/1 @ Bet365 & Paddy Power

Ascot

1:50 – 1pt win – Doyen Breed – 5/1 – Gen

2:25 – 2pts win – Fiddlerontheroof – 3/1@ Bet365 & Paddy Power and 0.5pts each way – Cobolobo – 14/1 @ Bet365 (Paying 3 places 1/5 odds)

3:00 – 1pt win – Cap Du Mathan – 6/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook

3:38 – 1pt win – Dashel Drasher – 13/2 @ Bet365 & Ladbrokes

Cheers

John

Hi all,

Storm Eunice is heading our way and Dundalk, Fakenham and now Lingfield have been abandoned although Dundalk will race on Monday.  That leaves just Kelso who passed a precautionary inspection, and Southwell to race.

The Kelso card isn’t a to bad and the Class 2 Racing’s Best Ratings with Timeform Handicap Chase (3:05) is the race of the day.

Kelso

3:05 – Racing’s Best Ratings With Timeform Handicap Chase (Class 2) – 2m 5 ½ f

Just the six runners but just 1pt separates the first four in the betting which indicates how competitive it is.

The Mighty Arc made it 2-3 over fences when jumping well to make all at Sedgefield last tome.  He has been a weak finisher in the past but going from the front has made a difference 7-year-old. He’s up a couple of notches in class here but looks capable of better.

Pay The Piper has been in good form since going chasing this season winning twice and last time finishing a ½ length 2^nd of 4 to Kiltealy Briggs in a novice chase at Musselburgh. Consistent enough but vulnerable to any better handicapped rivals.  The cheekpieces go on for the first time today which makes him of interest.

Silver Hallmark won a weak Grade 2 novice chase at Haydock last season. Off for nine months he shaped with plenty of promise when 4^th of 6 to Fiddlerontheroof in the Colin Parker Intermediate Chase at Carlisle. Well backed (5/2 fav) for the Rowland Meyrick Handicap Chase at Wetherby on his handicap chase debut but never got competitive and was pulled up.

Empire Steel slammed Protektorat in a novice chase at this meeting 12 months ago. He produced a good effort when a close-up 2^nd of 7 at Haydock on his seasonal return in November. Looked to be going as well as anything and alongside the leader when taking a heavy fall four out in the Rowland Meyrick. His jumping lacked confidence when pulling up in the Peter Marsh Chase at Haydock last time and he was pulled up in the straight.

Verdict: The improving The Mighty Arc will be a tough to catch if he’s allowed to dictate as he was last time. The drop in trip should suit Silver Hallmark who remains capable of better. Pay the Piper is a consistent type and if the first time cheekpieces can eke out a bit of improvement then he must be feared. We should know how Empire Steel is likely to go over the first few fences and if his confidence is back then he can win this.

2pts win – Empire Steel – 3/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

1pt win – Pay The Piper – 3/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

Cheers

John

Hi all,

It’s Thursday so it’s another installment of my Path To Cheltenham series and ante post selection for the Arkle Novice Chase.

Path To Cheltenham

Last weekend’s action provided several further festival clues. Edwardstone cemented his place at the top of the Arkle ante post betting with a professional display of jumping at Warwick.

On the the same card Celebre D’Allen landed the 2m 4f Class 2 handicap chase. Twice a winner over hurdles since joining present trainer Philip Hobbs. The 10-year-old had looked nicely treated on his French form back over the larger obstacles. And, so it proved as he ran out a cosy enough winner.  After the race the Paddy Power Plate (Handicap) was nominated by the trainer as his likely next target. Any doubts about the quicker ground for him were dispelled as he handled it very well. He’s been raised 6lb for Saturday’s success and he’s got to be high on the shortlist for the Plate.

Arkle Novice Chase

Named after the legendary Arkle, the famous three winner of the Gold Cup. This Grade 1 novice chase is traditionally the second race on the opening day of the festival and is run over 2m.

Edwardstone’s win in the Kingmaker Novices Chase on Saturday saw the 8-year-old stay on top of the Arkle ante-post betting. He’s a very professional novice chaser and there’s plenty to like about his clinical jumping. I think he’s got a great chance of the five-timer next month.

The Irish Arkle a week earlier saw Blue Lord hold off the mare Riviere D’etel.  Blue Lord is a sold enough jumper and has shown that he does possess tactical speed. However, I was expecting to win more easily than he did at Leopardstown.

Besides Blue Lord trainer Willie Mullins could also run Saint Sam who was third in the Irish Arkle. He shaped like he might be better over a slightly longer distance but he’s only had two starts over fences and is capable of better.

Haut En Couleurs is another possible from the Mullins yard. The 5-year-old came down at the third in the Irish Arkle. However, prior to that he had looked a high-class chase prospect when beating stablemate and subsequent Gentleman De Mee in a beginners’ chase at Leopardstown. 

It’s another Mullins runner that takes the eye most though. On Sunday Ciel De Neige made it 3-3 since going over fences with a taking success at Punchestown.

The 7-year-old has several entries at the festival, besides the Arkle, and he’s shorter in the ante post betting for the Grand Annual (10/1) and the Paddy Power Plate (12/1).

Granted he’s got a bit to find with the likes of Edwardstone & Blue Lord on official ratings. However, he’s going the right way, is ground versatile and I could see him getting into the places if talking up his place in the Arkle. 

I’m taking a chance that there might be a bit of a boil over in this year’s race and we’ll see a surprise winner. If that’s the case I’m happy to go with Ciel De Neige. Here’s hoping that Willie lets him take his chance.

Arkle Selection:  1pt each way – Ciel De Neige – 16/1 @ Bet365 & Sky Bet (paying 3 places 1/5 odds) (both NRNB).

Thursday Racing

The best of today’s action is at Sandown. With the Grade 2 Jane Seymour Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle (2.20) the feature race of a seven-race card which also includes Royal Artillery Gold Cup (2.55) a race for military riders which wasn’t run 12 months ago due to Covid.

There’s also jumps card at Clonmel. where the feature race is a 3m Grade 3 novice hurdle (2:30). My Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle ante post selection Mr Fred Rogers will bid to follow up his December Thurles win. Fontwell and Leicester also race this afternoon and there’s an all-weather evening card at Chelmsford.

I have couple of fancies at Sandown & Leicester.

Sandown

2:20 – Love Envoi has improved with each of her three starts over hurdles and made it 3-3 when winning a novice hurdle at Lingfield last time. All three successes have come on soft/heavy ground so no problem with underfoot conditions. The 6-year-old looks a worthy market leader. Speech Bubble built on the promise of her Lingfield hurdle 2^nd when beating 12 rivals at Newbury last month. She has plenty of size about her, will make a chaser, and she handled testing ground well last time. Like the favourite is open to more progress with racing.

1pt win – Speech Bubble – 4/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

Leicester

2:10 – Éclair Mag, a winner at Market Rasen on his stable debut last January. He hasn’t really built on the promise of his first two starts after joining Richard Bandey and was a well, beaten 7^th in the Surrey National last time. A drop back to 3m, going right-handed, and on testing ground could see the 8-year-old revive.

Captain Tommy is only 1-15 over fences but he’s now dropped 3lb below his last mark which came over this trip at Uttoxeter in May. Has run better on his last two starts than his form figures UP suggest. Was still going ok and closing on the leaders when unseating his jockey at Cheltenham and again ran well for a long way but failed to stay 3m 5 in the Classic Chase at Warwick last time. Sole chase win came on good ground but he did win over hurdles on heavy.

1pt win – Éclair Mag – 5/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

Cheers

John