Category: Victor Value

Hi all,

It’s almost done and dusted as we head into the final day of the 2022 Cheltenham Festival. There’s more great action in store for us today on Gold Cup Day. It’s been a tough four day on the punting front. However, the sport has been excellent and there have been some stellar performances.

Just like the last three days I have looked at all seven races on day four. It’s going to be a ‘death or glory day’ on the betting front so buckle up and prepare for the ride. As ever my betting advice follows at the end of today’s preview.

Cheltenham Festival – Day 4

The going wasn’t as soft as I thought it would be on Thursday and with a dry, sunny and mild day being forecast the ground is likely to dry out further.

1:30 – JCB Triumph Hurdle (Grade 1) – 2m 1f

Provided the ground isn’t to heavy Vauban looks the one to be with after his recent Grade 1 Leopardstown success. Pied Piper shouldn’t be far away and did get the better of Vauban when the pair made their hurdling debuts. It looks like Davy Russell has opted for Fil Dor who was no match for Vauban last time but could get closer in a race where the emphasis on stamina. Of the home team the recent rain hasn’t helped Knight Salute but it was a positive for Porticello.

Verdict: Vauban could be a special and who could be a Group horse on the level. The best of the home team looks to be Knight Salute who will appreciate the drying ground and has each way claims.

2:10 – McCoy Contractors County Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) – 2m 1f

With 28 declared to run it’s not surprising you can make claims for pretty much most of them. West Cork won the Greatwood Hurdle here in November and is better than he was able to show at Ascot a month later but I’m not sure he wants too soft.

Suprise Package has a 5lb penalty to carry for his easy success in Saturday’s Imperial Cup.  Now 5lb extra wouldn’t have stopped him at Sandown so he as to be respected on what seems likely to be similar ground and the yard won this 12 months ago with Belfast Banter. Must be on the high shortlist provided this race doesn’t come to quick.

State Man a faller two out on his debut for Willie Mullins The 5-year-old made no mistake when winning a Limerick maiden (soft) last month. He’s only had three career starts so lacks the experience of most of his rivals but is open to plenty of improvement. Stablemate Tempo Chapter Two isn’t out of this despite his big odds. The 6-year-old got off the mark at the fourth attempt over hurdles when winning at Fairyhouse last month. Doesn’t look on bad mark for his handicap debut but does need to jump better than he did last time.

Top Bandit has been well placed to win his last three starts, including here in October (good). The 6-year-old looks open to more improvement but his best form so far has come on a sounder surface.

Colonel Mustard’s 12 length 3^rd of 8 to Sir Gerhard in a Grade 1 last time looks decent form given that one’s success in Wednesday’s Ballymore. A strongly run 2m on soft ground could be ideal for the 7-year-old.

First Street is a progressive novice and there was plenty to like about his 3 ¾ length 3^rd of 14 in last months Betfair Hurdle at Newbury. He’s up 1lb for that effort but there could be more to come from the 5-year-old.

Éclair De Beaufeu’s record at the festival means he must be respected despite his poor recent form. He was in the process of going close in the 2019 County Hurdle when unseating his rider at the last. He then finished runner-up in the Grand Annual Handicap Chase at the following year’s festival. Last season was a 2 ½ length 4^th of 25 to Belfast Banter in last season’s race and is 3lb lower here.

Gua Du Large likely wouldn’t want the ground worse than good to soft. The 6-year-old bounced back from a low-key seasonal return to win a valuable 2m handicap hurdle at Fairyhouse (good) when last seen in action 110-days ago. Could do even better for the step up in distance but does need a sound surface.

Verdict: Plenty of potential unexposed horses here. Top Bandit is one of them and drier ground is a plus. State Man is open to more improvement as his bigger priced stablemate Tempo Chapter Two. Suprise Package is high on the shortlist after his easy Imperial Cup win. The drying ground will suit Gua Du Large and he could be capable of better. The form of the Nicky Henderson runners this week means First Street must be respected after third placed effort in the Betfair Hurdle. You can’t rule out Éclair De Beaufeu given his record at the festival.

2:50 – Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1) – 3m

Hillcrest is a worthy market leader after his recent success on a heavy ground in a Grade 2 at Haydock last month. He looks well suited to today’s serious stamina test.

Ginto won a Grade 1 at Naas last time. That was over 2m 4f on soft ground but he races like he will improve further for the step up to 3m.

Minella Cocooner made all to win a Grade 1 at Dublin Racing Festival. He remains capable of better but that win came over 2m 6f and he’s not certain to be as good over 3m. His stablemate The Nice Guy lacks the experience of most of rivals but couldn’t have been more impressive when winning on his hurdling debut at Naas in January.

I tipped Falcon Eight ante post 33/1 for this but I suspect the rain has scuppered his hopes. No problem with testing ground for Shantreusse who has improved to win his last two on heavy ground. A neat jumper of a hurdle, he stays very well and this race should suit the 6-year-old.

Another ideal type for the race is Ballygrifincottage. A onto win a three-time point winner the 7-year-old finished a 6 ¼ length 3^rd of 7 to the useful Blazing Khal over C&D in December. He’s since gone onto win a Lingfield novice on heavy ground.

Stag Horn, a strong stayer in the mud on the flat, has taken well to hurdling winning both his starts over hurdles, including a Grade 2 at Warwick last time. The 5-year-old’s latest success came over 2m 5f but he’s open to further improvement stepped up to 3m.

Good Time Jonny was supplemented for this after showing improved from to win back-to-back handicap hurdles at Leopardstown. The latest of which came over 3m at the Dublin Racing Festival and his big field experience will be helpful.

The Real Whacker is nice staying prospect. A winner at Carlisle two starts back. He then improved again when a 2-length 2nd of 7 in Grade novice hurdle at Doncaster last time. Needs to have improved again to win this but he’s capable of better.

Verdict: A competitive looking renewal and it looks a good race. Falcon Eight a classy stayer on the flat needs to improve on what he has shown so far over hurdles but if the ground continues to dry up, he should run well. Hillcrest deserves to head the betting but horses who ran at Haydock prior to running here are 1 from 126 since 2016. Shantreusse looks an improving stayer who will relish this stamina test and don’t rule out the progressive staying handicap winner and the recently supplemented Good Time Jonny.

3:30 – Boodles Cheltenham Gold Cup Chase (Grade 1) – 3m 2 ½ f

Minella Indo looks to have a good chance of back-to-back Gold Cup winners. Stablemate A Plus Tard was runner-up last year. He’s since gone onto win the Grade 1 Betfair Chase at Haydock before finishing runner-up to Galvin in the Savills Chase at Leopardstown last time. May find one or two stronger stayers over this trip but drying ground will be a positive.

Galvin is an improving stayer who won the National Hunt Chase here last season before getting up close home to beat A Plus Tard. This trip should will suit him even better than 3m around Leopardstown. He’s another who will appreciate drying conditions.  

Tornado Flyer proved his stamina for 3m when winning the King George VI at Kempton last time. He’s got another 2 ½ f to travel today but you wouldn’t be surprised if he stayed it. If he does, he’s got the form to be there or thereabouts. Stablemate and double Gold Cup winner Al Boum Photo get the first time cheekpieces. There doesn’t look like there will be a lot of pace, so the 10-year-old could go to the front in the first time headgear. Not out of it but that 10-year-old plus stat in Championship races is of concern.

The recent rain came at the right time for Royale Pagaille. He struggled in this race on good to soft 12 months ago and the more testing the ground the better for 8-year-old.

There’s a lot of confidence around for Protektorat. I think he’s a Grade 1 Chaser in the making but I just wonder if he will prove better at a bit shorter than 3m 2f..

Verdict: As ever the Gold Cup provides a unique test. You must stay 3m 2f strongly but you also need class.  If the ground was like it was on Wednesday, then Royale Pagaille would have a good chance. I think A Plus Tard might find stronger stayer or two at the trip and I think Galvin can confirm placings with that one again. Ok, there are doubts about the reliability of the King George VI form but my tentative selection is Tornado Flyer who I think could improve for the further step up in distance.

4:10 – St. James’s Place Festival Challenge Cup Open Hunters’ Chase (Class 2) – 3m 2 ½ f

Not a race I normally looking to having a bet in. However, I do like one here at its Winged Leader. A multiple point and hunter chase winner, looks to have improved plenty this season as evidenced by his comfortable seasonal return win in a Thurles hunter chase in January. He’s a sound jumper of a fence and given he’s only an 8-year-old we may not have seen the best of him in the sphere.

4:50 – Mrs Paddy Power Mares’ Chase (Registered As The Liberthine Mares’ Chase) (Grade 2) – 2m 4 ½ f

Another race which I haven’t looked at in any detail. A chance is taken with the novice Concertista who made it 2-2 over fences when winning a Grade 2 mares’ only novices chase at Limerick over Christmas. The 8-year-old was successful in the Mares novices’ hurdle at the 2020 festival and finished runner-up the Mares Hurdle last season. Given she’s only had two starts over fences she’s capable of better and could find the improvement necessary to win.

5:30 – Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle (Class 2) – 2m 4 ½ f

Langer Dan finished runner-up to Galopin Des Champs in last year’s race. He’s only 2lb higher this time around and will have been laid out for this. Had nice spin at Taunton 24-days ago which should have blown away the cobwebs. Looks a very nicely treated horse.

Decimation shaped as if needing the run after 10 months off when 6 length 7th of 16 to Carrig Sam in handicap at Fairyhouse last month. Will be sharper today and look on a workable mark.

Quinta Do Mar won twice on good ground in the autumn before putting in a personal best when 4^th of 12 here in December. Was in the process of running a big race when falling at the last in the Lanzarote Hurdle at Kempton. Vulnerable to better handicapped horses but won’t be far away if the ground continues to dry out.

Cobblers Dream bids for the hat trick after wins at Doncaster and latterly in the Lanzarote Hurdle at Kempton. He’s up 8lb for his Kempton success but his improvement may not have stopped yet. Drying ground won’t be an inconvenience either and he’s got solid claims.

Banbridge made it 3-5 over hurdles when winning a Navan novice hurdle last time. His latest success came over 2m and he’s capable of better stepped back up in trip.

Chemical Energy made it 2-3 over hurdles when winning at Fairyhouse in November. The return to 2m 4f suited the 6-year-old who seem to have been kept fresh for this. Jockey Shane Fitzgerald won on the horse last time which is a further plus to his chance here. Another who will be suited by drying ground. I tipped up his stablemate The Goffer ante post at 16/1. The 6-year-old seems to improving with racing and last time out won a Grade 3 at Thurles. There was plenty to like about his attitude the last day and although needs to improve for his handicap debut that’s certainly possible given his profile.

Adamantly Chosen got off the mark at the third time of asking over hurdles when winning at Thurles last month. His Thurles win came over 2m but he’s bred to improve for the step up to 2m 4f. Looks to have a good chance with last time out winning jockey Richie Deegan keeping the ride. Stablemate Five O’Clock is having his first start since finishing a 4 ½ length 7^th of 23 in this race in 2020. Hard to know how much ability remains after his long time on the sidelines but he could be capable of better and is 4lb lower than 2-years ago. Jack Foley is also a positive jockey booking.

Verdict: Langer Dan will be plenty of punters get out of trouble horse here. There’s no doubting he’s on a good mark but will he find one even better handicapped like 12 months ago. There are plenty of unexposed types who could be ahead of their marks. They include my ante post selection The Goffer, his stablemate Chemical Energy and Banbridge. Adamantly Chosen has the potential to improve for the step up to 2m 4f. Of the more experienced handicap hurdlers Quinta Do Mar will appreciate the drying ground and has each way claims. As will Lanzarote Hurdle winner Cobblers Dream.

Betting Advice:

2:10 – 1pt win – Suprise Package- 11/1 @ William Hill and 1pt win – Top Bandit – 14/1 @Bet365 and 0.5pts each way – Éclair De Beaufeu – 40/1 @ Bet365 (paying 7 places 1/5 odds).

2:50 – 1pt win – Good Time Johnny – 16/1 @ Bet365

3:30 – 1pt win – Tornado Flyer – 14/1 @ Bet365

5:30 – 1pt win – Banbridge – 12/1 @ William Hill, 1pt win – Cobblers Dream – 16/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes and 0.5pts each way – Quinta Do Mar – 40/1 @ Bet365 (paying 6 places 1/5 odds)

Cheers

John

Hi all,

We’re onto Day 3 of the Cheltenham Festival and the action changes to the stiffer New Course today. Once again, I preview all seven races on the card and my betting advice can be found at the end of the main piece.

Cheltenham Festival – Day 3

The going was changed to heavy by the time of yesterday’s final race. They will be running on the New Course today and although its due to be dry and sunny it’s still likely to be soft ground today. Please note: I wrote today’s preview before all the rain had fallen.

1:30 – Turners Novices’ Chase (Grade 1) – 2m 4f

It looks like the big two Bob Olinger and Galopin Des Champs have scared off most of their rivals with just the four runners being declared. Its last season’s best novice hurdler against one of the best novice chasers we have seen this season. In effect it’s a classic coin toss. If Bob Olinger’s jumping holds up and he’s within a couple of lengths of Galopin Des Champs at the last his speed could be the decisive factor. However, the change in the going has tipped the race in favour of the Mullins horse.

Verdict: A race to watch rather than bet in for me.

2:10 – Pertemps Network Final Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) – 3m

Sire Du Berlais won this race in 2019 & 2020 and finished runner-up in last season’s Stayers Hurdle. A good amateur takes off 7lb off the top-weights back and given his course/festival his claims are clear for all to see.

Winter Fog ran well when 3 ¼ length 2nd of 27 to Panda Boy in the Leopardstown qualifier over Christmas. Capable of better and is a major contender although at 5/1 he’s plenty short enough in the betting.

Alaphilippe fifth of 16 in last season’s Albert Bartlett, shaped better than his 5^th of 7 in a Warwick qualifier suggests on his seasonal return. He looks on a fair enough mark

I tipped Dunboyne each way at 16/1 earlier in the year and I remain happy with him. His stablemate Folcano qualified for this when finishing 6^th of 20 at Punchestown on his seasonal reappearance. Back to form when a ½-length 4th of 21 at Navan in December and he’s respected here.

Of those at bigger prices Born Patriot and Honest Vic appeal most. The first named seemed to appreciate the return to 3m and better ground when finishing a 3-length 2^nd of 14 over C&D in October. Off for 4 months and below that form when a well beaten 11th of 17 at Sandown last month. He’s got a bit to find but good ground brings him firmly into the picture. Honest Vic didn’t seem to take chasing this season. He’s very much respected on his C&D (good to soft) win in October 2020, off today’s mark. The 9-year-old also ran well here when a 6-length 5^th of 25 in the 2020 Coral Cup. On decent ground he looks to have a better chance than his odds suggest.

Verdict: The first of three competitive handicaps. Those at the front of the end of the market Winter Fog, Sire Du Berlais, Alaphilippe and Dunboyne have solid claims. The latter’s stablemate Folcano must be respected as do Born Patriot, on good ground, and the nicely treated Honest Vic.  

2:50 – Ryanair Chase (Grade 1) – 2m 4 ½ f

Allaho put in the most spectacular performance of last year’s festival when winning this race. The 8-year-old has won both his starts this season and is is rightly going to go off a short-priced favourite. The favourite or second favourite have won 11 of the last 14 renewals of the race. Second favourites have provided 6 winners from 17 runners 35% +15 10 placed 59%.

Allaho’s nearest market rival is recent Irish Gold Cup Winner Conflated. He’s started to get his act together over fences and although it’s hard to see him beating the favourite, if that one is at his very best, he is capable of more improvement and has solid each way claims. Another with place claims is recent Denman Chase winner Eldorado Allen but surely, he and Conflated are fighting it for second place.

Verdict: Hard to look beyond Allaho but Conflated is a solid enough each way contender.

3:30 – Paddy Power Stayers’ Hurdle (Grade 1) – 3m

Ten are set to meet the starter for what looks a very tricky puzzle. It’s a tricky race because many of the leading fancies have questions to answer.

Last year’s winner Flooring Porter just heads the market in his back-to-back successes in the race. He was an excellent 2 length 2nd of 11 to Klassical Dream in Christmas Hurdle at Leopardstown last time and given the winner pinched five lengths at the start he did well to get a close as he did at the finish.

Klassical Dream would probably have been favourite for this if he hadn’t have gone to the Galmoy Hurdle at Gowran Park a month later. The 8-year-old was a disappointing 4^th of 9 there when sent off the 1/3 favourite. He needs to bounce back to his Leopardstown best here and if he does, he won’t be far away.

Champ was also a beaten odds-on favourite when a below par 3 ¼ lengths 2nd of 5 to Paisley Park in Cleeve Hurdle over C&D. Prior to that the 10-year-old had been back to his best when beating Thyme Hill and Paisley Park winning the Grade 1 Long Walk Hurdle at Ascot. If Champ reproduces his Long Walk performance, he would go close. However, he has one trend to defy. Since 2016 horses in Grade 1 hurdle races at the festival, aged 9yo+ are 0 winners from 50 runners. That age trend is also against Paisley Park who bounced back to something like his best when winning the Cleeve Hurdle last time.

Thyme Hill who had to miss last year’s race due to a setback, won the Grade 1 Stayers Hurdle at Aintree last April. The 8-year-old bounced back from a poor run in France when finishing 1 ½ lengths behind Champ in the Long Walk. He’s got previous Cheltenham Festival form, finishing third to Envoi Allen in the 2019 Champion Bumper and when finishing a slightly unlucky 1 ½ length 4^th of 19 to Monkfish in the 2020 Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle over C&D.

The improving Royal Kahala has won her last two starts. Last time out she posted a career best on RPR’s when winning the Grade 2 Galmoy Hurdle. That was the mare’s first run at 3m and she’s maybe capable of better over the distance. The mare has a bit to find on official ratings buts she’s got a likeable attitude and the soft ground has come in her favour.

Verdict: If Klassical Dream bounces back to his best he’s got the class to win this. However, Flooring Porter looks the more reliable of the pair. The age stat puts me off Champ and Paisley Park. Royal Kahala will like the softer ground and can make the frame. That leaves Thyme Hill who has less questions to answer than his main market rivals.

4:10 – Craft Irish Whiskey Co. Plate Handicap Chase (Grade 3) – 2m 4 ½ f

Spiritofthegames is on a long losing run but the 10-year-old always seem to run well in big field handicaps at Cheltenham. His six best RPR’s have come here and he shaped well enough again when a 6 ¼ lengths 3^rd of 10 over C&D on Trials Day. He’s on a good mark and if all the cards fall right, he can go close.

Glancing Queen was a 10-length 2^nd of 8 to L’Homme Presse in the Garde 2 Dipper Novices’ Chase at Cheltenham last time: She’s only had three starts over fences and is capable of better in the sphere.

Celebre D’Allen made it 3-3 since joining Philip Hobbs when winning at Warwick last month. He’s up 5lb for that success but looked to have a bit hand that day and remains on a competitive mark. Has won on heavy ground and If he handles the track he’s a big contender.

Imperial Alcazar looked an ideal type for this race when winning over C&D on Trials Day. He’s up 8lb for his latest win but like the Glancing Queen he’s only had three starts over fences and he’s open to further improvement.

Adrimel made 2-3 over fences when winning at Haydock last month. That was the 7-year-old’s first start in handicap company and he’s just 1lb higher in the weights so likely remains on a workable mark. Two from two since the fitting of the blinkers and four from four on heavy ground so yesterday’s rain has come at the right time for him.

This is a handicap chase where the Irish have a good recent record having won four of the last six renewals. Gordon Elliott saddled The Storyteller to win this in 2018 and he’s three in with a chance including Grand Paradis and Fancy Foundations. The pair are both novices but must respected on their handicap debuts.

Verdict: Glancing Queen and Imperial Alcazar are both unexposed over fences and have track form. Celebre D’Allen remains on a competitive mark after his recent Warwick success and if he handles the track won’t be far away. The Elliott pair of Grand Paradis and Fancy Foundations are in the mix with a slight preference for the former. Spiritofthegames goes well over C&D and has each way claims.

4:50 – Ryanair Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 2) – 2m 1f

I must confess this is race I haven’t looked at in any detail but Dinoblue is my choice here. The mare has been one of the taking horses on the preview circuit. She jumped quickly and accurately for a novice when winning her sole start over hurdles at Clonmel in January. She’s open to plenty of improvement and looks an exciting prospect. Party Central has claims on her comfortable success in a valuable mares’ handicap hurdle at the Dublin Racing Festival last month. The rain has come at the right time for Love Envoi who made it 3-3 on heavy ground when winning a Grade 2 mares’ hurdle at Sandown last time. The 6-year-old looks the best of the home contenders.

Verdict: Dinoblue for me but the progressive Party Central & Love Envoi must be respected.

5:30 – Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup Amateur Jockeys’ Handicap Chase (Class 2) – 3m 2f

Gordon Elliott is 2-10 6 places with his runners in the race, and the yard also won it 12 months ago when Denise Foster was in charge. Given the yards excellent record in the race it’s not surprising that he has the ante post favourite in Frontal Assault, he also saddles Smoking Gun and Glenloe and they all have a chance. Frontal Assault has only had three starts over fences and is interesting on his handicap debut. A winner at 3m over hurdles he’s open to further improvement for today’s step up in distance.  Jamie Codd is on board Smoking Gun and the 9-year-old comes into the race on the back of a career best effort over fences when a 1 ¼ length 3rd of 9 at Fairyhouse last month. He stays well but can be an in and out performer.

Last time out winners are 1-50 7 placed in this race since 2008. That slightly puts me off School Boy Hours who has the able assistance of Derek O’Conner in the saddle. The 9-year-old got off the mark over fences for the first time over fences when winning the Paddy Power Handicap Chase at Leopardstown last time.

Ain’t That A Shame has finished behind the likes of Galopin Des Champs & Stattler in beginners’ chases this winter and finished a neck 2^nd of 9 to Champagne Platinum at Navan last time. The 8-year-old is another interesting contender on his handicap debut for Henry De Bromhead.

Mister Fogpatches can normally be relied on to run his race in these big field handicaps and was a 5 ¼ lengths 3rd of 18 to Longhouse Poet in Thyestes Handicap Chase last time. Better ground won’t inconvenience the 8-yer-old who’s got place claims.

Come On Teddy should be suited by the step up to 3m 2f. Third of 22 in last season’s Pertemps Final. However, he does need to jump better than he did last time when a 3 ¾ length 2nd of 4 to one of today’s rivals Omar Maretti at Newcastle. The latter has gone in again at Catterick last month, Come On Teddy is 7lb better of with that one here and could run a big race for the home team.

The most interesting of the home team could be the Nicky Henderson trained Mister Coffey. A useful hurdler the 7-year-old has run respectably on his three starts since going chasing, including when a ¾ length 2^nd of 8 to Jacamar at Kempton two starts back. Not match for L’Homme Presse when runner-up to that smart novice chaser in the Grade 1 Scilly Isles Novices’ Chase at Sandown last time. Yet to race beyond an extended 2m 4 f but shapes like 3m could be his trip. If he does stay then he would likely be on good mark.

Verdict: There’s plenty to like about the claims of the favourite Frontal Assault. Ain’t That A Shame could also be on a good mark for handicap debut. Mister Fogpatches is a consistent type in these big field handicap chases but is vulnerable to any better treated rivals. The best of the home team could be Mister Coffey who looks on a workable mark, if he stays 3m 2f.

Betting Advice:

2:10 – 1pt win – Folcano – 14/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes and 1pt each way – Born Patriot – 20/1 @ Bet365 (paying 7 places 1/5 odds)

4:10 – 1pt win – Adrimel – 16/1 @ William Hill & Bet365 and 1pt win – Grand Paradis – 8/1 @ William Hill

5:30 – 1pt win – Frontal Assault – 6/1 @ Bet365 & William Hill and 1pt win – Omar Maretti – 11/1 @ Bet365 & William Hill

Cheers

John

Hi all,

A bit of uncertainty as to how rain the track will receive on Wednesday. It could be anywhere between 3mm & 9mm depending on the forecast you are using. There’s even a possibility that they could do some watering overnight. After today its dry and spring like weather for Thursday and Friday.

Inside today’s preview I look at all the races on day two. Like yesterday, I’m concentrating my betting on the two ultra-competitive handicap races.

Cheltenham Festival – Day 2

1:30 – Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1) – 2m 5f

Sir Gerhard, having bypassed Tuesday’s Supreme is likely to go off odds on here. He’s not bred to improve for the step up to 2m 5f. However, his class may get him through against some weak looking opponents.

For those looking for an alternative to the favourite Journey With Me could be the answer.  The 6-year-old has won his four starts under rules, including two over hurdles. He’s a sound jumper of a hurdle and is capable of better. Good ground would be an unknown but the yard won this with Bob Olinger last year.

The best of the home contenders is likely to be the Paul Nicholls, trained Stage Star who impressed when winning the Grade 1 Challow Hurdle at Newbury in December and won’t be inconvenienced by the ground.

Verdict: Despite concerns over stamina, I think Sir Gerhard’s class will get him through here.

2:10 – Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase (Grade 1) – 3m ½ f

Eleven novice chasers are set to go to post for an intriguing renewal and arguably one of the most open of the Grade 1 races.

Bravemansgame heads the betting. The 7-year-old is a good jumper of a fence and comes into the race having won all four of starts over the larger obstacles. I think he’s better on a flatter track and maybe over slightly shorter but he’s a worthy market leader and the better the ground the better his chance.

Ahoy Senor wasn’t at his best when runner-up to Bravemansgame at Kempton two starts back. However, he bounced back to best when making all to win the Grade 2 Towton Novices Chase at Wetherby last month. Going left-handed suits but this will be the biggest field he has faced over fences so far. We haven’t seen the best of the 7-year-old over fences and he can win this especially of the rain arrives.

The decision by Venetia Williams to bring L’Homme Presse here rather than go for the 2m 5f race adds more spice to the contest. The 7-year-old has won all four of his starts over the larger obstacles and showed he handles Cheltenham well when winning the Dipper Novices Chase on New Year’s Day. He’s an economical jumper of a fence and should stay 3m.

The Irish challenge is headed by the Willie Mullins trained Capodanno. Progressive over hurdles last spring. A winner at Naas on his chase debut he then ran Bob Olinger to 4 ¾ lengths in a Garde 3 at Punchestown. Only got as far as the fifth when unseating his rider in a Grade 1 won by stablemate Galopin Des Champs last time. That’s not an ideal preparation for this but the step up to 3m over fences can bring out more improvement in him as it did over hurdles.

Mullins also saddles Gaillard Du Mesnil who was 2 length third behind Capodanno on their chase debuts at Naas. The 6-year-old has improved with each of his three starts over fences and last time stayed on to take third behind Galopin Des Champs at Leopardstown. He finished one place ahead of Bravemansgame in last season’s Ballymore and shaped at Leopardstown like a step up to 3m will suit.

Beacon Edge a useful staying hurdler, won the Grade 1 Drinmore Novices Chase earlier in the season. He fell at the sixth in the race won by Galopin Des Champs two starts back. But his confidence was restored when he finished a ¾-length 2nd of 4 in Grade 2 at Navan 22-days ago. He’s got solid each way claims if his jumping holds up in this bigger field for yard in good form.

Verdict: This looks a competitive race and I want to take on Bravemansgame here. If Ahoy Senor can get into a good jumping rhythm then he can go close. Of the Irish contenders Beacon Edge could be a bit of each way value ahead of Capodanno.

2:50 – Coral Cup Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) – 2m 4f

Thirteen of the last 14 winners of the race had nine or less starts over hurdles. A recent win also looks a useful guide with 11 of the last 14 winners having won a race on their last three starts.

Grand Roi was sent off 6/1 favourite for this race 12 months ago. Could only finish a 15-length 12^th of 26 but he was hampered between the third and second last that day and couldn’t recover. Just three starts this season for the 6-year-old and it was a decent effort when 4^th of 9 in the Grade 2 Boyne Hurdle at Navan last month. The first time cheekpieces are an interesting addition and a big run could be forthcoming.  

Fastorslow is another interesting Irish contender. The 6-year-old is unexposed over hurdles at this trip and hasn’t shaped badly on either start this season over shorter.  It will be interesting to see if any money arrives for him before the off.

Drop The Anchor, I put up at 16/1 ante post for the race after his 5^th of 27 at the Dublin Racing Festival. He’s now almost half those odds. There was plenty to like about the way he finished his race off when a 3 ½ length 7^th of 25 to Belfast Banter in last season’s County Hurdle, off 3lb higher.

The Shunter won the Paddy Power Plate over fences here 12 months ago and has a 7lb lower mark over hurdles to exploit. The 9-year-old also won the Greatwood Hurdle here last season so the course holds no terrors for him.

Unexpected Party has a nice progressive profile for the race. The Dan Skelton trained 7-year-old has improved with each of his five starts this season and posted a career best on RPR’s when comfortably beating ten rivals at Ascot last time. A strong traveller, he produced a good change of gear to win at Ascot. Looks the type to be suited by a strongly run big-field handicap. Granted he’s been hiked up 12lb for his latest success but there could be more to come from him.

Camprond needs a sound surface to be seen at his best. He won the Grade 2 Persian War Novices’ Hurdle at Chepstow back in October and easily dispatched two rivals here later that month. Finished a good 6 length 4^th of 19 to West Cork in Greatwood Hurdle last time. The return to 2m 4f is a plus but he does need his ground.

Verdict: I have six on my shortlist and I still may not have found one that will finish in the places. Drop The Anchor is already in the portfolio. On good ground Camprond is in the mix. The Shunter goes well around here and is big contenders as is the progressive Unexpected Party.

3:30 – Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase (Grade 1) – 2m

The rematch between Shiskhin and Energumene with Chacun Pour Soi added to the mix. If the latter could transfer his high-class Irish form to Cheltenham, he would have a big chance but I don’t think he will.

I think it’s between the big two in the betting.  His winning form here gives Shishkin the edge. However, there is just 1 length between the pair on their Ascot running and the 3/1 available about Energumene makes him the value play here.

Put The Kettle and Nube Negra were first and second in last year’s race. The latter has solid each way claims again and won’t be concerned about good ground either. Whilst the latter can never be ruled out on her favourite track, four wins here including at the last two festivals, her form this season has been dire which is why she’s around 25/1. The application of the first time cheekpieces really need to revive her. Her stablemate Envoi Allen could be well suited by a strongly run 2m and has had wind surgery since his last run. A smart horse over hurdles, won the Ballymore and the Champion Bumper at previous festivals.

Verdict: The most likely winner is Shishkin but Energumene is a bit of value at around 3/1. For those looking for one at bigger odds each way then the De Bromhead pair of Put The Kettle On and Envoi Allen could get in to the places.

4:10 – Glenfarclas Chase (A Cross Country Chase) – 3m 6f

All eyes on favourite Tiger Roll who bids for a fourth success in the race and could well be retired should he win today.

Looking at the fate of favourites and second favourites in the Cross-Country race. 

Favourites are 2 winners from 14 bets 14% -8.87 8 placed 57%.

Meanwhile second favourites are 6 winners from 14 bets 43% +15 11 placed 79%. For those backing the second favourite each way in the race the profit was +23.68.

Stablemate Delta Work looks Tiger Roll’s main opponent on official ratings and he makes his Cross-Country debut here. However, he’ll need the new discipline to spark a revival in form because he’s looked regressive on his last two starts over regulation fences.

Ex French trained cross-country winner Prengarde was an expensive purchase for owner J P McManus. Now with Enda Bolger the 6-year-old will surely win races in the sphere and must be respected. As does Easyland who beat Tiger Roll in the 2020 renewal, runner-up 12 months ago. The latter doesn’t have the scope for improvement that Prengarde has but he’s surely better than he has been able to show on two hurdle starts since joining the Jonjo O’Neill yard.

Verdict: Give the record of second favorites in the race I would be interested Prengarde here if he was to go off second in the betting.

4:50 – Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Challenge Cup Handicap Chase (Grade 3) – 2m

Eleven of the past 12 winners of the Grand Annual have had an official rating between 138 and 152.

Last year’s winner Sky Pirate will like the return to a strongly run big field scenario. However, you must go back to 1959 for the last horse to retain their crown.

Andy Dufresne has been popular in the ante post market and the 6-year-old back to best when 4 ¾ lengths 2nd of 6 to Captain Guinness in a Naas Grade 3 back in November. He’s got a 130-day layoff to overcome but he’s won three times off an even longer break so fitness shouldn’t be an issue. He races off a mark off 155 but must be high on the shortlist. His stablemate Buddy Rich has been laid out for the race, the better ground will suit him and he gives trainer Gordon Elliott a strong hand in the race.

Embittered finished third in the 2020 County Hurdle and was sent off the 9/2 favourite for this race last year but he fell when making headway at the 9^th that day. He’s likely been laid out for the race again and will like the drying ground.

Paul Nicholls has saddled the winner twice since 2016.  He has a couple of live contenders in Il Ridoto & Thyme White. The former looked a smart 2m handicap chaser when bolting up at Newbury in November. He got stuck in the mud at Lingfield last time but I don’t think we have seen the best of the 5-year-old over fences yet and he could be suited by the pace of a big field handicap. Thyme White won a novices’ handicap chase at Doncaster 77-days ago. He’s been raised 8lb for that success but looked well a head of his mark that day. However, he’s only had three starts over fences so does lack experience.

Amarillo Sky has a likeable upwardly progressive profile. He made it 2-5 over fences when jumping well to beat six rivals at Newbury 24-days ago. The going was testing when he won at Newbury but he has plenty of form on a sounder surface too.

Before Midnight was in excellent form in the autumn winning handicap chases over C&D and at Ascot. He’s maintained that form on his last two starts and was an excellent 1 length 2nd of 7 to Funambule Sivola at Doncaster last time. His best form has come on a sound surface so connections will be hoping there isn’t too much rain before post time.

Gumball can be a tricky ride but he’s got some good form a round here and looked set to go close when falling two out in a C&D Grade 2 last season.  Put in a solid effort under a big weight when a ½-length 2nd of 6 to Not Available in handicap at Ludlow last time. Has been dropped 1lb since and has place claims.

Verdict: Of those at the front of the betting Andy Dufresne and the progressive Amarillo Sky appeal most. Given Paul Nicholls’s record in the race his pair Il Ridoto & Thyme White are respected as is Before Midnight.

5:30 – Weatherbys Champion Bumper (A Standard Open National Hunt Flat Race) (Grade 1) – 2m ½ f

Twenty-two go to post for this years and the winner’s prize is surely heading across the Irish Sea. Willie Mullins has won six of the last 14 running’s of the race and he saddles seven here including favourite Facile Vega who looked a machine when winning at Leopardstown last month. Stablemate Redemption Day looked a smart prospect when winning on his racecourse debut at Leopardstown over Christmas

Mullins is 5-23 +71 with his runners in the race returned 11/1 to 25/1. So, you can never rule out his bigger priced runners here. Off those at a bigger price James’ s Gate looked useful when winning at Punchestown on his racecourse debut, as did Madmansgame when making all to win at Navan last month.

Until Facile Vega’s Leopardstown’s win. American Mike was the ante post favourite for this. The 5-year-old has won both his start in good times and his form looks as good as the favourite. Like Facile Vega he looks an exciting prospect.

Verdict: Facile Vega could be something special and if he’s as effective on a sounder surface looks a worthy enough market leader. That said American Mike’s form is also strong and he might turn out to be the value here.

Cheltenham Betting Advice:

2:10 – 1pt win – Ahoy Senor – 7/1 @ Bet365 and 1pt each way – Beacon Edge – 12/1 @ Bet365 & Coral (both paying 4 places 1/5 odds)

2:50 – 1pt win – The Shunter – 12/1 @ Bet365 & William Hill and 1pt win – Unexpected Party – 11/1 @ Bet365 & William Hill

4:50 – 1pt win – Amarillo Sky – 17/2 @ William Hill or 8/1 @ Bet365 and 1pt win – Before Midnight – 14/1 @ Bet365 & Coral.

Cheers

John

Morning all,

It’s finally arrived! it’s day one of the 2022 Cheltenham Festival. It doesn’t seem that long since we were looking forward to the first meeting at the HQ back in October. Well, plenty of water has gone under the bridge since that opening fixture.

It’s going to be a busy few day’s on the betting front. Although most of my focus will be on the handicaps, I will still be taking an interest at the Championship races. I tend to start the meeting off slowly but build up my bets as the week goes on and I don’t see that changing this year.

This year I’m heading into the festival in good form which is a complete contrast to 12 months ago. Will I still be in a positive mood come Friday evening or will I be tearing out my remaining hair in frustration?

In today’s preview I look at the five races being covered live on ITV and you’ll find today’s selections at the end.

Cheltenham Festival – Day 1

1:30 – Sky Bet Supreme Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1) – 2m ½ f

I was disappointed to see Sir Gerhard head to tomorrow’s Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle rather than come here. His absence means Dysart Dynamo is the pick of the Willie Mullins yard. The 6-year-old is 4-4 under rules and is capable of better. He will be tough to pass if he gets an uncontested lead out in front.

Nicky Henderson runs both Constitution Hill & Jonbon. The first named is also unbeaten on his two under rules and looked a smart prospect when winning the Tolworth Hurdle at Sandown in January.

Stablemate Jonbon is another to put his unbeaten record on the line. The 6-year-old is getting better with racing and his turn of foot could be decisive at the finish. There’s a slight concern how he will deal with preliminaries but the same could be said of Dysart Dynamo. If he doesn’t lose his race before the off, I think he’s got a very big chance.

Mighty Potter should be finishing his race off strongly and will relish the Cheltenham Hill. He doesn’t have much to find on ratings with the big three and has each way claims.

2:10 – Sporting Life Arkle Challenge Trophy Novices’ Chase (Grade 1) – 2m

Eleven novices go to post for this year’s Arkle and it’s a competitive looking renewal. Edwardstone has won his last four starts over fences, albeit in small fields than today. A neat and accurate jumper of fence. Over hurdles, I thought the 8-year-old was better on a flatter track, although he did finish his race off well enough when fifth in last season’s County Hurdle. The track niggle apart he’s the one to beat.

Willie Mullins saddles three in Blue Lord, Haut En Couleurs & Saint Sam. Blue Lord has won all three of his starts over fences albeit he was workmanlike when beating Riviere D’etel in the Irish Arkle at Leopardstown last time. He’s a sound enough jumper though and is the pick of Paul Townend.

Haut En Couleurs looked an exciting prospect when winning on his chase debut at Leopardstown but he fell at the third in the Irish Arkle. He remains an exciting prospect over the larger obstacles but his last time out fall is a concern.

Saint Sam finished third in that race. He’s another capable of better over fences but maybe better over further.

Riviere D’etel was arguably unlucky not to beat Blue Lord last time. The mare made her sole mistake at the last when in front and it was bad one. However, there was plenty to like about how she rallied on the run in to get within ½ length of Blue Lord at the finish.

2:50 – Ultima Handicap Chase (Grade 3) – 3m 1f

The veteran Vintage Clouds caused a 28/1 shock when winning this 12 months ago. The 12-year-old is just 1lb higher here and must be respected once more.

I had a seven strong shortlist which shows how competitive these Cheltenham handicaps are. Until last year it had been race where novices or second season chasers had dominated. The novices that appeal most are Floueur, Fantastikas and Corach Rambler.

Floueur proved he can handle a big field when winning a Fairyhouse beginners’ chase two starts back. The 7-year-old improved again when a 7-length 3rd of 13 to Death Duty in the Irish Grand National at Punchestown last time. He stays well, so no stamina issues and provided his jumping holds up he won’t be far away with Jordon Gainford taking off a handy 5lb.

Fantastikas made it 2-4 over fences when winning at Lingfield last time.  He looks an ideal type for the race and should give his backers a good run for their money

Corach Rambler won a novices’ handicap chase over C&D in December before finishing 4^th of 15 in the Classic Chase at Warwick. Making headway when unseating his rider five out in the Grade 2 Reynoldstown Novices’ Chase at Ascot last time. Can be hard ride but should be staying on at the finish and is likely on a good mark.

Besides Vintage Clouds the older chasers that appeal are Ben Dundee & Lastintranslation.

Ben Dundee finished a 5 ½ length 5^th of 23 in the Plate here in 2020. A solid 4^th of 18 in the Kerry National (3m) back in September. The 10-year-old was then an excellent ½-length second of 28 to School Boy Hours in Paddy Power Chase at Leopardstown. First start for 78-days but he’s gone well fresh in the past.

Lostintranslation isn’t the horse he once was but the 2019 Betfair Chase winner has plenty of form around, including when a 1 ½ length 3^rd of 12 to Al Boum Photo in the 2020 Gold Cup. The 10-year-old made a winning return to action when beating five rivals in a Grade 2 at Ascot in November. Has since run poorly in the King George VI Chase and in the Grade 1 Ascot Chase last month. Not the most reliable but the first time cheekpieces are interesting addition as is better ground. Trainer & jockey combined to win this in 2013.

3:30 – Unibet Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophy (Grade 1) – 2m

Honeysuckle has yet to taste defeat on her fourteen starts under rules.  Last year’s winner get’s the 7lb mares’ allowance, which she arguably doesn’t need, and its hard to see her being beaten.

Appreciate It goes well at Cheltenham. Runner-up in the 2020 Champion Bumper went one better last year when winning the Supreme Novices Hurdle over C&D. He’s 4-4 over hurdles and was impressive when winning the Supreme. His preparation hasn’t been ideal and this will be his first start for 12 months.

Teahupoo has improved with each of his three starts this season and the 5-year-old posted a career best on RPR’s when comfortably winning a Grade 3 at Gowran Park last month. Today’s likely stronger gallop could see him improve again. His last time out success puts him firmly in the picture and he could win should the favourite underperform.

I put up Saint Roi each way in my “Path to Cheltenham” series. He’s a bigger price than when I put him up which says a lot about his win chance. That said he did win the County Hurdle here in 2020 and he will be suited by today’s likely strong pace. He gets the first-time tongue tie here and trainer Willie Mullins is 16 winners from 52 runners 31% 24 placed 46% with his runners in a first-time tongue tie since that start of 2021.  I can’t see him winning but he could get into the places.

4:10 – Close Brothers Mares’ Hurdle (Grade 1) – 2m 4f

This is another race that’s heading across the Irish Sea.

Telmesomethinggirl won the Dawn Run Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle 12 months ago. Yet to win on her three starts this season but posted a career best on RPR’s when a 1¼ lengths 3rd of 9 to Royal Kahala in a Grade 3 mares’ hurdle at Leopardstown at Christmas. She was attempting to give the winner 5lb that day when her yard wasn’t in good form. Looks the one to beat if reproducing that effort here.

Willie Mullins saddles three of the 12 runners: Stormy Ireland, Burning Victory & Echoes In Rain. Stormy Ireland bounced back to something like her best when making all to win the Grade 2 Relkeel here on New Year’s Day. The choice of Paul Townend and looks like the pick of the Mullins trio.

Burning Victory took advantage of the fall of Goshen to win the Triumph Hurdle here in 2020.  Finished runner-up to Buzz in last season’s Cesarewitch at Newmarket. Put in a career best over hurdles last time when making all to win a Grade 3 at Punchestown 20-days ago. Queens Brook was 1 ½ length back in second that day, but was giving the winner 3lb and was having her first start for 4 months. There shouldn’t be much between the pair. However, Queens Brook trainer Gordon Elliott seems confident that she can reverse placings with the Mullins mare today.

Echoes In Rain was being touted as a possible Champion Hurdle contender at the start of the season. It hasn’t worked out that way for the mare but her 7 lengths 3rd of 5 to Honeysuckle in Irish Champion Hurdle was a step back in the right direction.  Can be keen in here races but a danger to all if she stays 2m 4f.

4:50 – Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) – 2m ½ f

Gaelic Warrior trained by Willie Mullins is considered one of the handicap bankers of the meeting and the ex-French recruit could have a stone or more in hand of his mark. However, at around 5/2 in a 22-runner handicap hurdle you must try to take him on.

Petit Tonnerre two from two over hurdles when trained in France – made a winning debut debut for Jonjo O’Neill against two rivals at Market Rasen last month. A comfortable winner that day, a race like this may come a bit quickly in his career but he does look an exciting prospect. That said it won’t be an easy task from top-weight.

HMS Seahorse got of the mark at the third attempt over hurdles when beating 13 rivals at Fairyhouse last month. Being by Galileo he should be suited by the drying ground and he looks on a decent mark for his handicap debut.

Ebasari made a winning hurdle debut at Cork in January but hasn’t really build on that success on two subsequent starts. Not given to hard a race once his chance was gone when a 16 ¼ length 3rd of 6 to one of today’s rivals Brazil. Only 10lb better off at the weights with the winner but he looks the type to do better in handicap company, especially with trainer Gordon Elliott applying the first time cheekpieces. Elliott has saddled the winner of this race three times since 2013.

5:30 – National Hunt Challenge Cup Amateur Jockeys’ Novices’ Chase (Grade 2) – 3m 6f

A disappointingly small field for this year’s race. The Irish look to have a strong hand here. The Gordon Elliott trained Run Wild Fred heads the ante post betting. The 8-year-old won the valuable Troytown Handicap Chase at Navan in November. Before running a bit below par when an 8-length 2^nd of 8 to Fury Road in three-mile Grade 1 novices chase at Leopardstown over Christmas. Today’s longer distance should suit and he does have the able assistance of Jamie Codd who bids for a fourth win in the race in the saddle.

Willie Mullins saddles Stattler. The 7-year-old doesn’t have the experience over fences that the favourite but there was plenty to like about his attitude when he made it 2-2 over the larger obstacles when winning a Grade 3 at Naas last time. There’s a good chance he will stay today’s marathon trip and could give his trainer a third win in the race.

Vanillier showed a liking for Cheltenham when winning the Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle at last year’s festival. Admittedly he was well behind Stattler last time and Run Wild Fred at Leopardstown. Not jumping brilliantly on either occasion. That would be a worry here but you must respect the 7-year-old on his Albert Bartlett form.

I put up Pats Fancy each way at 20/1 earlier this year. Well, the 7-year-old runs which is half of the battle when it comes to ante post betting. He looks a strong stayer and the 3m 6f should really suit him. And, with only six set to meet the starter my each-way bet is still very much alive.

Betting Advice

Cheltenham

2:50 – 1pt each way – Ben Dundee – 18/1 @ Bet365 (paying 6 places 1/5 odds), 1pt win – Floueur – 8/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes and 0.5pts – each way – Lostintranslation – 22/1 @ William Hill (paying 7 places 1/5 odds)

4:50 – 0.5pts win – Petit Tonnerre – 28/1 @ Ladbrokes (paying 5 places 1/5 odds), 1pt win – Ebasari – 14/1 @ Bet365 & William Hill and 1pt win – HMS Seahorse – 12/1 @ Bet365

Cheers

John

Hi all,

I thought it was going to be one of those days when Baldomero got caught in the final strides in Wolverhampton’s Lincoln Trial. However, it didn’t matter on the day as the wins of Surprise Package and Tinker Toy gave the service a fantastic pre-Cheltenham profit on the day

The Leinster National Handicap Chase (4:40) at Naas is the highlight of the Sunday action. I have a couple of fancies on the Naas card and one at Warwick.

I will be back on Monday with my selections for day one of the Cheltenham Festival.

Naas

4:40 – BARONERACING.COM Leinster National Handicap Chase (Grade A) – 3m ½ f

Twelve handicap chasers are set to go to post in pursuit of the €59,000 winner prize. Top of the betting is Champagne Platinum who got off the mark over fences at the seventh attempt when winning a 3m Navan beginners chase two starts back. The 8-year-old improved again when a 3-length 2nd of 13 to Death Duty in the Irish Grand National Trial at Punchestown last month. He’s been nudged up 3lb for that effort but is the one to beat.

Franco De Port has top-weight of 11-12 to carry but he comes into the race on good form having finished a ¾-length 2^nd of 18 to Longhouse Poet in Thyestes Handicap Chase at Gowran last time. He’s been raised a further 5lb for last time which could anchor him on what look sure to be testing ground.

His stablemate Stones and Roses can’t be totally dismissed of a light weight and is capable of winning a staying handicap chase like this. However, he looks held by Champagne Platinum on their Punchestown running.

Diol Ker was 5 ¼ lengths behind Franco De Port in the Thyestes and gets 3lb from that one today. Testing ground suits the 8-year-old and this is just his second start in a handicap so he could be capable of a bit better if his jumping holds up.

Scoir Mear won last year’s renewal off 3lb lower. He has been running over hurdles this season and the 12-year-old put in his best effort of the season when a 3 ¾ length 5^th of 16 at Fairyhouse 15-days ago. The more testing ground the better for the veteran who’s another with each way claims.

Stormy Judge won a handicap chase here over an extended 2m 4f last season before going to post a career best over fences when winning a valuable novices’ handicap chase at Navan 12 months ago. A recent run over hurdles should have blown some of the cobwebs away although he maybe even sharper after this run.  He’s open to further progress over 3m+ and the Irish Grand National is the 7-year-old’s main target.

Verdict: Franco De Port has a touch of class but it won’t be easy to defy top-weight. Champagne Platinum is a worthy market leader. Diol Ker shouldn’t be far away on ground that will suit and trainer Noel Meade saddled the winner in 2020. Stormy Judge is the one open to the most improvement in the field and should be all the better for a recent spin over hurdles. Last year’s winner Scoir Mear looks to have been laid out for this and there was plenty of encouragement to be taken for his recent run over hurdles.  

1pt win – Stormy Judge – 6/1 @ Bet365

0.5pts win – Scoir Mear – 10/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

0.5pts win – Stones and Roses – 10/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

Warwick

3:55 – Volcano won four times over fences in a productive 2020-21 season. One of those successes came in this race 12 months ago, off 15lb higher. There’s no doubting the 8-year-old is well handicapped on his best form but he’s been well beaten on all his starts this season.

Shanty Alley developed into a useful handicap chaser last season winning twice at Uttoxeter & Doncaster. Before arguably putting a career best when a 5-length 2nd of 14 to Time To Get Up at Wincanton last February. The 8-year-old has failed to complete on either start this season. He was withdrawn on account of drying ground at Wincanton last Thursday.

The Newest One won a novice’s handicap chase at Doncaster back in November and wasn’t disgraced when an 11-length 4^th of 7 at Ludlow (3m) a month later. He would have finished a bit closer that day but for a bad mistake two out. Has been given an 81-day break and will like the good to soft going. If he stays today’s 3m 5f trip, won’t be far away for the inform Nigel Twiston-Davies yard.

Vinnie Dev ran well on just his second start over fences when a 9-length 2nd of 8 to Snuff Box at Lingfield last month. The step up to 3m 5f seemed to bring about improved form last time and given he’s unexposed over fences the 8-year-old could be capable of better.

Verdict: Volcano is well handicapped, if bouncing back to last season’s best but he’s been woeful so far this season. Shanty Alley is respected but does need genuinely good to soft or softer ground to run. The Newest One hails from an inform yard and is respected but Vinnie Dev could prove the best of the novices.

1pt win – Shanty Alley – 7/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

Cheers

John

Hi all,

It’s the final weekend of racing before Cheltenham begins on Tuesday and it’s a mix of jumps and all-weather flat action on Saturday.

Saturday’s feature race is the Paddy Power Imperial Cup (2.25) at Sandown. Back in the day the Imperial Cup was one of the most prestigious handicap hurdles of the jumps season. Since the Cheltenham Festival has become the main obsession of connections the race has lost some of its gloss. There’s £100,000 in guaranteed prize money with £56,270 on offer to the winner. That twice the prize money as 12 months ago so it should attract more than the paltry nine who met the starter last year.

Sandown’s seven-race card also includes a Grade 3 novice handicap hurdle final (1.50), a Listed handicap chase (3.35) and a Listed mares’ bumper (3.00).

Wolverhampton hosts its most valuable meeting of the year. The highlight being Listed Lady Wulfruna Stakes (2.40) and the Lincoln Trial Handicap (2:05).

The ITV cameras are covering the best of the action from Sandown and Wolverhampton as part of a seven-race programme on Saturday afternoon.

On Sunday big race on Sunday is at Naas, where the highlight is the Leinster National (4:40) so there is plenty to keep us occupied until the tapes go up on the Supreme on Tuesday.

Saturday’s betting is to be found at the end of this preview.

Sandown

The going is good, good to soft in places on the Hurdle course and good to soft, good in places on the chase at Sandown although some rain was forecast for Friday. Although the forecast amounts it shouldn’t alter the going too much.

1:50 – European Breeders’ Fund Paddy Power “National Hunt” Novices’ Handicap Hurdle Final (Grade 3) – 2m 4f

Knappers Hill was a 6 ¼ lengths sixth of 14 to Glory And Fortune in Betfair Hurdle at Newbury last time shaping like 2m 4f will suit him. The 6-year-old looks a solid enough favourite. However, he does face 16 interesting rivals

Our Jet, trained by Dan Skelton, looks interesting on his handicap hurdle debut after two wins at Wetherby.

Thunder Rock completed the hat trick when winning on his handicap debut at Huntingdon last month. He’s up 6lb but likely remains on a competitive mark.

Arizona Cardinal got off the mark at the fourth attempt over hurdles at Warwick 15-days ago. It was heavy that day so he’s going to have different ground today.

Dubrovnik Harry comfortably won a heavy ground Exeter maiden in January and then finished runner-up at Leicester last month. Respected on his Exeter win on handicap hurdle win.

Peejaybee bids for the hat trick and won a handicap hurdle over C&D two starts back. More exposed than a few in the field but remains one to be interested in.

Verdict: For all his obvious claims the price has gone on Knappers Hill. If the ground is ok I can see Dubrovnik Harry going well for Harry Fry. I also see Peejaybee going well.

2:25 – Paddy Power Imperial Cup Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) – 2m

For those looking for trends to provide bit of guidance and they do help to thin-out the likely losers from probable winners. Not digging to deeply but there are three that look interesting to me:

All 13 winners had won 1-2 times over hurdles.

Twelve of the last 13 winners carried 10-13 or less.

Twelve of the last 13 winners had run between 16 to 45-days.

Balco Coastal also fails the weight trend but he’s another who’s going the right way and is 2-3 over hurdles. The drop back to 2m looks a positive. He looks a worthy market leader albeit the form of the Nicky Henderson is a concern.

Irish raider Suprise Package put in a career best when 2^nd of 18 at Leopardstown two starts. However, he wasn’t seen to best effect when 9^th of 27 back there at the Dublin Racing Festival. A winner of a valuable novice hurdle at last season’s Punchestown Festival over 2m 4f. He might be better over further than 2m but drying ground will suit, as would a strongly run race.

Langer Dan’s stablemate Lucky One is potentially well handicapped on last season’s win at Wincanton. Low key efforts on his first two starts for Dan Skelton but he was slightly better when 3^rd of 11 at Ascot last time. Another who should find a strongly two miles ideal.

Add in the improving Mr Grey Sky who his bidding for a hat trick after wins at Leicester & Ludlow. Recent C&D winner and handicap debutant Monviel and you have the makings of an interesting renewal of this historic hurdle race.

Verdict: Suprise Package will like the drying ground. If you’ve taken the fancy prices on Balco Coastal you will be happy and he’s look well handicapped. The big prices available early in the week about the Lucky One are long gone.

3:00 – British Stallion Studs EBF Mares’ Standard Open National Hunt Flat Race (Listed Race) – 2m

Mullenberg a winner of a mares Listed bumper at Cheltenham on Trial’s Day has a penalty to carry for that success. However, she looked a class above her rivals that day and looks the one to beat here.

Luccia, trained by Nicky Henderson, looked a useful prospect when winning a Warwick bumper on her racecourse debut in January. As 4-year-old she also gets an age allowance from all but one of her rivals.

Flirtatious Girl won this race last year but the conditions of the race mean she can still run in this year’s renewal. However, she was 12 ½ lengths behind Mullenberg at Cheltenham on her seasonal return. The return to going right-handed will suit the 6-year-old though.

Verdict: I wouldn’t put anyone off Mullenberg here.

3:35 – Paddy Power Novices’ Handicap Chase (Listed Race) (GBB Race) – 2m 4f

With £50,000 in guaranteed prize money the sponsors will disappointed that just six have been declared to meet the starter.

Scene Not Herd made it 3-3 since going over fences when beating three rivals at Ludlow when last seen in action in December. Back from an 80-day break today and 5lb higher than last time but given the quality of his jumping he’s the one to bet here.

Frenchy Du Large is another good jumping novice chaser and he’s 2-4 since going chasing. Came up a progressive novice when runner-up at Lingfield last time. Trainer Venetia Williams saddled Farinet to win this last year.  

Danny Kirwan got off the mark at the third attempt over fences when winning a Wincanton novice chase last time. The 9-year-old must be respected on ground that will suit but he often flattered to deceive over hurdles and it could be the same over fences.

Verdict: I’m happy to take on Danny Kirwan here with Scene Not Herd and Frenchy Du Large with a preference for the former.

Wolverhampton

1:31 – Betway Handicap (Class 2) – 6f

Zarzyni has finished runner-up on all three starts since returning from a break. He was finishing his race off strongly over 5f at Southwell last time and will be suited by today’s extra furlong.

Mighty Gurkha was a useful juvenile winning the Group 3 Sirenia Stakes at Kempton. Made a good start to his three-year-old career but regressed on his final four starts last year. He’s nicely treated on last winter’s best form if bouncing back to something like his best.

At big odds I respect Full Authority on his first start for Jane Chapple-Hyam. A winner over C&D when trained by Sir Michael Stoute. Hardly a beat a rival on three starts for Richard Fahey last year but he’s well handicapped, if the stable switch has had the desired effect.

Verdict: The consistent Zarzyni wouldn’t be winning out of turn. However, it may pay to go with Full Authority on his first start for a new yard.

2:05 – MansionBet Lincoln Trial Handicap (Class 2) – 1m ½ f

La Tihaty completed the four timer when winning at Kempton last month. The handicapper has hiked him up 9lb for his latest success but trainer Roger Varian has booked Saffie Osbourne to take off a handy 5lb off the top-weight. The lightly raced 4-year-old could be a Group level performer but he may have to be to defy stall 12.

Bless Him has been in decent form in Meydan, including when 3^rd of 16 22-days ago. He’s a hold up horse and will be a hostage to the pace of the race and will need all the cards to fall right to win.

Mick Appleby won this with Big Country in 2018 and the same owners have Baldomero here. The 4-year-old has run well on both starts since switching from Joseph O’Brien stable. A winner at Kempton over 2f further 10-days ago, the drop back in trip shouldn’t inconvenience him and he looks a big player.

Verdict: La Tihaty wide draw is a bit off putting albeit he looks the most likely winner. Bless Him has the ability to win but will need luck in the run. That leaves Baldomero as the pick.

2:40 – MansionBet Lady Wulfruna Stakes (Listed Race) (All-Weather Championships Fast-Track Qualifier) (Class 1) – 7f

Misty Grey is 4-4, including a three-time winner over C&D. He was no match for La Tihaty at Kempton over a mile last time but the return to C&D is a big plus for him.

Amilcar produced a good turn of foot to win a Listed race at Deauville in December. He must give away a 3lb penalty to all his rivals but remains an interesting contender from France.

Happy Power is having his first start on the all-weather. However, the 6-year-old has some good form on turf that would give him a real chance here. He finished a 2 ½ 4^th of 12 in the Group 1 Diamon Jubilee Stakes at Royal Ascot last year and was also a ½ length runner-up to Kinross in a 7f Group 2 at Goodwood last summer.

Tinker Toy won on the tapeta at Newcastle last yearbefore subsequently disappointing on both starts on turf last summer. Returned from a 7 month lay off and a gelding operation off 7 months when a ¾-length 2nd of 8 at Lingfield last month. That was a joint career best on RPR’s from the 5-year-old and given his lightly raced profile he could be capable of better.

Internationalangel has won all her five starts since joining Jane Chapple-Hyam stable. The mare put in a career best when showing a nice turn of foot to win a Newcastle handicap 17-days ago. She’s needs to improve again to win in listed company but given her present form you couldn’t rule it out.

Verdict: If Happy Power takes to the all-weather, he won’t be far away. The improving Internationalangel is very much in the mix as is the lightly raced Tinker Toy.

Betting Advice:

Sandown

1:50 – 1pt win – Peejaybee – 10/1 @ Bet365 and 1pt win – Dubrovnik Harry – 9/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

2:25 – 1pt win –  Suprise Package – 10/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

Wolverhampton

1:31 – 0.5pts each way – Full Authority – 14/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes (both paying 3 places 1/5 odds)

2:05 – 1pt win – Baldomero – 8/1 @ Bet365

2:40 – 1pt win – Tinker Toy – 14/1 @ Bet365

Cheers

John

Hi all,

It’s easy to lose sight of the ball with Cheltenham just over the horizon. Thankfully Undersupervision’s win in the Grimthorpe Handicap Chase at Doncaster saved the day on Saturday.

With the weights now published I’m just starting to dig into the nine handicaps at Cheltenham. That’s going to keep me busy for most of next week which means there are unlikely to be any selections between Monday and Thursday. However, as ever its best to keep an eye on your inboxes for updates.

I do have a something for Sunday though. At Leopardstown we have the best race of the day either side of the Irish Sea with €26,550 on offer to the winner of TRI Equestrian Handicap Chase (4:50).

Leopardstown

4:50 – TRI Equestrian Handicap Chase (Grade B) – 2m 5 ½ f

Max Flamingo unseated his rider at the 9^th over C&D at the Dublin Racing Festival. He won here over hurdles 12 months ago and is on fair mark. Fan De Blues fell at the 7^th in the same race. The 7-year-old is a consistent chaser and this sort of trip should but he’s likely vulnerable to any better treated rivals.  

Winter Escape put in an excellent effort when a 2¾ lengths third of 17 in that race. The 11-year-old doesn’t find winning easy though but Mark McDonagh does take off a handy 7lb and a reproduction of his last time effort would see him go close.

Jerandme must be respected and would be a big contender if the ground continues to dry out although he probably needs quicker ground than yielding. A drop in distance and the application of the first time cheekpieces could see a better run from Discordantly.

Fakir D’alene had Donkey Years a neck back in second when winning at Thurles two starts back. The runner-up is 3lb better off here but there shouldn’t be much between the pair again. Fakir D’alene has since disappointed when only 7^th of 17 over C&D last time but that race may have come to quick after his Thurles run. Trainer Gordon Elliott saddled the winner of the race in 2019 & 2020.

Rightplacerightime, a useful handicap hurdler was very much back to form when good effort when a 1 ¾ lengths 2nd of 24 to Good Time Jonny in a valuable handicap hurdle at the Dublin Racing Festival. However, he’s since finished a well beaten (11/10 fav) back over fences at Carlisle just six days ago. Its possible he will jump with more fluency on better ground than he faced last time.

Batcio stays 2m 4f and has run well on his last two starts, finishing 4^th of 12 to Dunvegan at Fairyhouse and then when a 3 ¼ lengths 3^rd of 9 to A Wave of The Sea here over 2m 1f last month. The 10-year-old was doing his best work at the finish last time and although 2m 5 ½ does ask another question stamina wise he needs further than 2m 1f these days.

Verdict: Rightplacerightime is the most difficult to assess, he’s likely capable of better over fences but his Carlisle run was disappointing. I’m expecting better from Fakir D’alene than he was able to show here last time. Donkey Years has a handicap in him off his present mark. If Batcio stays 2m 5f, he will be a danger to all and has each way claims.

1pt each way – Batcio – 12/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes (both paying 4 places 1/5 odds)

1pt win – Fakir D’alene – 10/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

Cheers

John

Hi all,

An earlier than normal Saturday preview.

It’s Kelso that provides Saturday’ feature meeting. Kelso’s race of the day is the £100,000 Morebattle Handicap Hurdle (3.15) and is Scotland’s most valuable handicap hurdle

At Newbury the feature race of a seven-race card is the Greatwood Gold Cup (1.50). The Newbury undercard also sees the third leg of the Veterans’ Chase Series (1.15).

There’s also a seven-race card at Doncaster. The headline contest is the Grimthorpe Handicap Chase (3.30), with a Listed mares’ hurdle (2.20) and a valuable 2m½f handicap chase (2.55) adding further interest.

It’s a bumper afternoon of action on ITV though with broadcaster covering the best of the action from Kelso, Newbury, and Doncaster, as part of a nine-race show.

Let’s begin today’s preview at Kelso. My betting advice follows at the end of today’s preview.

Kelso

1:32 – bet365 Premier Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 2) (GBB Race) – 2m 2f

Richmond Lake and North Lodge arguably bring the best form to the race and deserve their places at the head of the betting.

However, I’m going with the improving Sholokjack who made it 2-2 over hurdles when winning a Wetherby novice hurdle last time. Up in class but handles soft ground and capable of going close.

2:05 – bet365 Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race) (Class 2) – 2m 5f

Famous Bridge looks to have been given a winnable mark, as he showed last time over C&D. He was travelling like the most likely winner when making a mistake and unseating his rider two out. Open to further progress and deserves his place at the head of the betting.

Elvis Mail is a three-time winner at Kelso and a consistent type but must prove that he’s as effective over further than 2m 2f.

Another course specialist is One Night In Milan who is 2-2 over C&D. The 9-year-old is well treated on his best form from two years back and could get into the places but Brian Hughes who rode him last time at Musselburgh opts for Famous Bridge here.  

Wilde About Oscar has the look of a Dan Skelton “plot” horse. The 7-year-old ran better shaped better than his 22 ¾ lengths 4th of 5 at Huntingdon last time suggests. He was still in contention coming to four out but made mistakes at the third and second last hurdles. That was his first start after a wind op. Now 5lb below his last winning mark achieved at Uttoxeter 12 months ago. He races in the first time cheekpieces today and looks well treated, if bouncing back.

2:40 – bet365 Premier Chase (Listed Race) (GBB Race) – 2m 7 ½ f

Not a race I have a strong opinion on. Espoir De Romay probably deserves to head the market on the best of his novice chase from but we haven’t seen the 8-year-old for 125-days.  Itchy Feet isn’t one for maximum faith and can make mistakes. The step up to 3m could help his jumping and the first-time blinkers replace the cheekpieces. Nuts Well still must prove his stamina for 3m but is a three-time winner at Kelso. Windsor Avenue is an improving 3m handicap chaser who won the Sky Bet Chase at Doncaster on his last start. On official ratings he has a similar chance to Itchy Feet and Nuts Well but has a bit to find with the favourite.

3:15 – bet365 Morebattle Hurdle (A Handicap Hurdle) (GBB Race) (Class 2) – 2m

Last year’s race was by The Shunter who also won the £100,000 bonus on offer for going on to win a race at the Cheltenham Festival and that bonus is available to this year’s winner.

Until last season the Morebattle Hurdle was conditions race which had attracted an average field size of just under five. It’s first year as handicap saw 14 runners go to post. Twelve have been declared for this year’s renewal so there will be another decent sized field for this valuable prize.

Buveur D’Air isn’t the horse he was, although he showed last season that he could still produce a high level of form when a 4 ¾ lengths 4^th of 11 to Abacadabras in the Grade 1 tree Hurdle. An eight-time Grade 1 winning hurdler, he must be taken seriously on his seasonal return. Yard from must be a concern though.

Metier missed the Betfair Hurdle in account of the drying ground. He’s been raised 7lb for winning at Lingfield last time. His participation in the race depends on how testing the ground. The softer the better for the this classy 6-year-old.

Jessica Harrington could bring over Autumn Evening. The 5-year-old put in a career best effort when a 3 ¾ lengths 3rd of 27 to Call Me Lyreen in Liffey Handicap Hurdle at Leopardstown last time. He has a higher mark here but looks capable of going close.

Faivoir twice a winner over fences this season was back over hurdles last time when a 14 ¾ lengths 3^rd of 4 to Goshen in Kingwell Hurdle at Wincanton. He finished third in this race 12 months ago, doing best of those ridden up with the pace, and races off the same mark here.

Severance put in a career best on RPR’s when a ½-length 2nd of 12 to Cormier in handicap hurdle at Cheltenham last month. He travelled through the race last time like he’s a well handicapped horse and remains on a competitive mark.

Newbury

1:50 – BetVictor Greatwood Gold Cup Handicap Chase (Grade 3) – 2m 4f

Trainer Paul Nicholls has farmed this race in the past twelve seasons. He’s had 8 winners from 25 runners +50.83 10 placed 40%. That already fantastic record improves further when you focus on his runners aged 6yo to 8yo – 8 winners from 17 runners 47 +58.83 9 placed 53%. He saddled two in this year’s race Tamaroc Du Mathan & Amour De Nuit. The latter is a 10-year-old so the one to concentrates looks to be the former.

Tamaroc Du Mathan won the Grade 2 Pendil Novices’ Chase at Kempton last season. However, he’s run below par on his last three starts including last month when 5^th of 8 at Sandown on first start since a breathing operation. That was his first run for 3 months and he’s entitled to have come on for it. Might prefer better ground but is nicely handicapped if bouncing back to his high-class novice chase form.

Glen Forsa took advantage of a falling mark to end a long losing run when winning at Musselburgh last month. The 10-year-ol;d jumped and travelled well that day. Up 5lb in a deeper race and dropping back to 2m 4f here but should be in the mix again.

Dublin Four, twice a winner here over fences, including over C&D in November. Fell four out on his second attempt at 3m at Ludlow last time and didn’t seem to be suited by hold up tactics that day. One for the shortlist for sure but his very best form has come on a sounder surface.

Amoola Gold showed he stayed 2m 4f when a 6 ¾ length 3rd of 9 to Celebre d’Allen at Warwick last time. He’s a very useful handicap chaser on his day and is just 2lb above his last winning mark. On a competitive mark with Jack Andrews taking off a handy 5lb.

The form of the Venetia Williams yardis a bit of a concernand the trainer herself has said that there’s a virus affecting some of her horses. Farinet is her representative here. The 7-year-old bounced back from underwhelming seasonal return when winning at Sandown (2m 4f) in January. Not suited by the step up to 3m back at Sandown last time. This is his trip and he’s well suited to soft ground.

Doncaster

2:55 – Virgin Bet Handicap Chase (GBB Race) (Class 2) – 2m ½ f

The Big Bite was back to something like his best and once confirmed his liking for Doncaster, form figures 122, when length 2nd of 7 to Funambule Sivola over C&D last time. Same mark and set for big run again.

Malystic a winner of two of his three starts, both over the minimum trip, as a novice last season. A well beaten runner-up to Allmankind in a Grade 2 Novice Chase at Ayr didn’t seem to stay 2m 4f that day. First run for 321-days so fitness has to be taken on trust but he remains capable of better on his first since a wind-op.

3:30 – Virgin Bet Grimthorpe Handicap Chase (GBB Race) (Class 2) – 3m 2f

Not the biggest of fields with just 8 set to meet the starter. Cloth Cap comes here rather than go to Kelso. The ground is likely be plenty soft enough for the top-weight.

Le Milos has improved for the adoption of front tunning tactics winning at Exeter and handling the step up in class when successful at Sandown last month. He’s up 4lb for his latest success and could face pace pressure from Storm Control and maybe Cloth Cap but he can’t be ruled given his progressive profile.

Undersupervision was just over 11 lengths behind Le Milos in fourth at Sandown last time. He seemed suited by the fitting of the first time cheekpieces at Sandown and although he’s 0-5 over fences he should be able to win a handicap.

Powerstown Park made it 2-6 over fences, both wins coming at Hereford, on his last start. The 9-year-old is up 6lb and in better race and must prove he can transfer his Hereford to Doncaster. Both chase successes have also come on good to soft. A big contender if he handles the likely softer ground

Betting Advice:

Kelso

1:32 – 1pt win – Wilde About Oscar – 5/1 @ Bet365

3:15 – 1pt win – Faivoir – 9/1 @ Bet365 and 1pt win – Severance – 9/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

Newbury

1:50 – 1pt win – Farinet – 13/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

Doncaster

2:55 – 1pt win – Malystic – 11/2 @ Ladbrokes or 5/1 @ Bet365 & Coral

3:30 – 1pt win – Undersupervision – 8/1 @ Bet365

Cheers

John

Hi all,

A brave run from Head To The Stars who just failed to land a hat trick of win in Ludlow’s Forbra Gold Cup.

It’s the first of two days racing at Newbury and it’s the Berkshire track that I’m heading for today’s selections.

Newbury

4:05 – Stellar Magic returned from a 10-month lay-off with an excellent effort when a 1 ½ length 2^nd of 9 behind Up For Parol at Haydock in December. Ran poorly at Ascot on his next start but shaped better last time when a 5 ½ length 4th of 9 at Wincanton 13-days ago. The step up to 3m threatens suit and the addition of first time cheekpieces will hopefully show that he’s on a winnable mark.

Guerlain De Vaux is the most interesting runner among the 11 strong field. The 6-year-old made it 2-2 over hurdles when winning at Catterick last time. He stays 3m well so no issues with stamina. Trainer Oliver Sherwood told the Racing Post that the horse is “definitely an embryonic chaser.”  And you can see why as he didn’t look totally at home on the track at Catterick. The more galloping nature of Newbury should suit him better. Hard to say he’s well handicapped for his handicap debut but he’s open to plenty of improvement.

1pt win – Guerlain De Vaux – 6/1 – Gen

1pt win – Stellar Magic – 6/1 – Gen

4:35 – Paddy’s Poem a winner at Wincanton 12 months ago, off 1lb higher, never got into the race and was pulled up at Sandown on his return from a 10-month absence in January. The 11-year-old is better than that run and although there is a slight concern about his well-being he’s nicely treated and looks a decent price.

1pt win – Paddy’s Poem – 6/1 @ Bet365

Cheers

John

Hi all,

It’s been a quiet week on the selections front. However, the weekend starts here. Inside today’s piece you’ll find my penultimate “Path To Cheltenham” ante post selection.  Plus, there’s my first selections for March from Ludlow and Taunton.

Path To Cheltenham

It’s difficult to have a very strong opinion on the Cheltenham handicaps given so many horses have multiple entries. I put up Mr Fred Rogers up ante post for the Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle but he recently lost his life.

The Martin Pipe as a race I like and its one I normally have two or three darts at. Well, I think I might have found another for the race and it’s another Gordon Elliott trained runner.

Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle

Last season’s runner-up Langer Dan had a quiet run round Taunton on his seasonal reappearance last week. The handicapper rather surprisingly dropped him 3lb for that effort. Which meant not unsurprisingly that bookies cut him to around 5/1 for the race.

On the face of it looks a bit of a gift for the Dan Skelton trained 6-year-old. Who was runner-up to Galopin Des Champs in the race 12 months ago.

The Goffer has been given a rating of 140 by the British Handicapper which is 6lb more than his Irish mark. The 5-year-old made it 2-5 over hurdles when winning a Grade 3 novice hurdle at Thurles last month. It’s a race that Elliott won with Blow By Blow in 2018 before that horse went on to win the Martin Pipe. Going the right way an showed a likable attitude to hold off several challenger’s last time. He will stay further than 2m 4 ½ f which is no bad thing in a race like the Martin Pipe and has the scope to make up into a high-class staying chaser next season.

Having come up against Galopin Des Champs last year maybe Langer Dan is going to face another potentially well treated handicap debutant in The Goffer. As low as 10/1 with Bet Victor. He’s a standout 16/1 with Bet365 which looks good value to this particular pundit.

Martin Pipe Selection: 1pt each way – The Goffer – 16/1 @ Bet365 (NRNB).

Thursday Racing

Racing is back in Ireland today with a seven-race card at Clonmel.  At Ludlow the feature race is the Forbra Gold Cup (3.00). There’s more jumps action at Taunton. Plus, all-weather fixtures at Southwell and Newcastle.

Here’s a quick preview of Ludlow’s Forbra Gold Cup.

Ludlow

3:00 – Just five have been declared for the Ludlow feature. Nonetheless its an intriguing 3m handicap chase and you make a case for all five runners.

Head To The Stars bid a race hat trick and made it 3-6 over C&D when winning here two starts back. The 11-year-old found Warwick’s Classic Chase too hot last time and will appreciate the return to Class 3 company. 

No Getaway made most to win at Sandown (2m 4f) 12 months ago. He’s on a winning looking mark but stamina for 3m is a concern.

Java Point saw of six rivals here over 2m 4f in January. Before a respectable performance when a 15-length 3^rd of 8 to Imperial Alcazar at Cheltenham last time. Looks worth a try at 3m.

Golden Whiskey took his Ludlow form figures to 21 when winning winner here last January.  The 6-year-old added to his win tally at Chepstow over Christmas before disappointing in a better race at Ascot last time.

The Alan King yard is struggling for winners and he saddles Canelo here. Unlike three of his rivals there are no stamina concerns with the 9-year-old. He’s also down to handy mark when he revives. However, the 2020 Rowland Meyrick winner has been out of form for over 12 months now.

Verdict: With doubts over stamina for the likes of No Getaway and Golden Whiskey. Yard form for Java Point and well-being Canelo. The solid choice looks to be Head To The Stars.

1pt win – Head To The Stars – 7/2 @ Bet365

Taunton

3:38 – The betting is headed by Larkbarrow Lad who comes into good form having placed on his last two starts, including a 3-length 3^rd of 9 over C&D 9-days ago. However, he’s 0-11 over fences and last time he looked like he was coming to win his race two out but just didn’t seem to want to go past the two who finished in front of him. Yep, he’s got the ability to win this but he’s not one to rely on.  

I prefer the claims of the Jeremy Scott Wavering Down. The 7-year-old, a useful enough handicap hurdler, can be forgiven his recent chase debut at Exeter. He was badly hampered by a faller at the second and could never be competitive afterwards. Up to 2m 7f should suit and the first time cheekpieces are applied today. He’s got the scope to win races over fences and looks worth play here for a yard 5-16 31% in the past 14-days.

1pt win – Wavering Down – 8/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

Cheers

John