Category: Victor Value

Hi all,

Another hectic day’s racing with Easter Sunday with seven meetings across Britain & Ireland. The best of the action is at Fairyhouse where the highlight are two Grade 1 races the Irish Stallion Farms EBF Mares Novice Hurdle Championship Final (3:10) and the BoyleSports Gold Cup Novice Chase (4:55).

There’s also a decent jumps card at Cork with the Grade B BARONERACING.COM Easter Handicap Hurdle (4:05) looking the highlight of an eight-race card.

The best of the action this side of the Irish is a second day of racing at Newbury. The action isn’t as good as yesterday at the Berkshire track but the card does include three potentially competitive Class 2 handicaps at the end of the card.  There’s a very valuable race on today’s Plumpton’s card with £50,000 in guaranteed prize money with £26,015 on offer to the winner of the Sussex Champion Hurdle Handicap Hurdle (4:35).

Fairyhouse

The headline act at Fairyhouse is Cheltenham Festival winner Galopin Des Champs in theBoyleSports Gold Cup Novice Chase (4:35).

There could be another Cheltenham Festival winner on the card if Love Envoi takes her place in theIrish Stallion Farms EBF Mares Novice Hurdle Championship Final.

Like yesterday, it’s the handicaps that interest me most from a betting perspective.

The 2m 4 ½ f Cawley Furniture Novice Handicap Hurdle (2:35) has attracted 25 runners and it looks one of the most competitive races on the card.  Both Memory Of Youth’s career wins have come over C&D but she probably needs soft ground to be at her best and Sean Flanagan deserts her and rides Donnrua Dream who is another who will hope the forecast rain arrives. Womalko has looked a progressive handicap hurdler when going close at Cork before winning at Limerick in December. The 6-year-old returned from an 11-week absence with another improved effort when 4-length 2^nd of 10 at Down Royal last month. Very much in the mix if the ground isn’t too quick. L’yser looked a much-improved hurdler for the step up to 2m 4f when winning C&D maiden last time. Looks on a competitive mark for his handicap debut and can win a race like this if he has improved his jumping since his last run. Clifftop returned from a winter break with a good effort on the flat at Leopardstown 11-days ago. He must be respected on his improved 1 ½ length 2^nd of 15 at Bellewstown when last seen over hurdles in August. The step up to 2m 4f suited him that day and this will only be the 6-year-old’s second start in handicap company. He does, however likely require a decent surface to be seen at his best.

Ten have been declared for the 2m ½ f Grade B BoyleSports Novice Handicap Chase (4:20). The Gordon Elliott trained Buddy Rich is expected to go close. The 9-year-old was well fancied for the Grand Annual Handicap Chase at the Cheltenham Festival but was forced to miss that due to the softening ground. He looks on a winnable mark but didn’t find as much at expected as when a 6 ¾ length 4^th of 10 Dunvegan over C&D in November. A 141-day break will have freshened the 9-year-old. Connections will be hoping that the rain has stayed away as he doesn’t stay much beyond 2m. Mt Leinster a useful hurdler got off the mark at the fifth attempt over fences when comfortably winning a Leopardstown beginners chase last month. Needs to cut out the mistakes if he’s to win this off his present mark. A big danger to Buddy Rich looks to be Bold Emperor. The 9-year-olds sole success over fences came in a Sligo beginners chase (good) in September. He had looked set to go close in a Galway handicap the following month when falling two out and has remained in form on two subsequent starts. Returning from a 5-month absence he put in a good jumping display when a 5 -length 2^nd of 13 here over 2m 5 ½ f. The drop back in trip shouldn’t be an inconvenience and if he comes on for his last run, he’s a big danger to the favourite.

Betting Advice:  

Fairyhouse

2:35 – 1pt win – L’yser – 15/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes and 0.5pts each way – Clifftop – 40/1 @ Bet365 (paying 6 places 1/5 odds)

4:20 – Bold Emperor – 11/1 @ Bet365

Cheers

John

Hi all,

There’s plenty of racing both on the flat and over the jumps over the Easter Weekend and that means lots of betting opportunities for fans of both codes.  

Newbury’s first Flat meeting of the season with three Group 3 contests the highlights of an eight-race card being the John Porter Stakes (1.50), Fred Darling Stakes (2.25) and Greenham Stakes (3.00).  The latter two races are recognised trials for the upcoming 1,000/2,000 Guineas. All three races are live on ITV4 this afternoon who are also covering four races from Musselburgh where the feature race is the Betway Queen’s Cup (3:14) which has £100,000 in guaranteed prize money with £51,540 on offer to the winner.

Besides Newbury and Musselburgh it’s a busy day’s action today with seven other meetings across Britain & Ireland. At Haydock its Challenger Series Finals Day with six finals on a seven-race card. Sadly, ITV don’t have the time to cover the meeting.  The best of the action across the Irish Sea is day one of the three-day Irish Grand National Festival at Fairyhouse.

Newbury

The 1m 4f John Porter Stakes (1:50) gets the Newbury card underway. Stowell looked a useful stayer in the making when coming from behind to finish a 2 ¾ length 3^rd of 13 to Kemari in last season’s Queen’s Vase at Royal Ascot. He ran poorly when last of 5 to Yibir in a Group 3 at Newmarket the following month and hasn’t been seen since. Lightly raced for his age, just the four career starts, the 4-year-old remains with the potential to do better this season.

The first of the two Guineas Trials on the card. The Group 3 Fred Darling Stakes (2:25) has attracted a field of 12. The ante post betting is headed by the Charlie Appleby trained Wild Beauty. The 3-year-old won a Grade 1 at Woodbine last season before finishing a 3 ½ length 5^th of 9 to Inspiral in the Group 1 Fillies Mile at Newmarket, just ¾ length behind Nell Gwyn winner Cachet.  The drying ground will suit and she has the best juvenile form on offer.  Her biggest rival should be Jumbly. The filly comfortably won the Listed Radley Stakes over C&D on her final juvenile start. The ground was soft last time but if she doesn’t need that sort of ground, she looks worth her place back in Pattern company.

Angel Bleu looks likely to go off a warm favourite for the Group 3 Greenham Stakes (3:00) the second of today’s Guineas Trials. The son of Dark Angel ended last season in fantastic form winning a Group 2 at Goodwood before going to success in the Group 1 Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere at Longchamp and the Group 1 Criterium International at Saint-Cloud. All three of those wins came on soft ground though and he’s likely to be going for the French 2,000 Guineas rather than the English one.  Perfect Power was another who finished last season off in excellent form winning the Group 1 Prix Morny at Deauville before going to success in the Group 1 Middle Park Stakes at Newmarket.  First try at 7f but the colt should stay. Of more concern would be today’s small field and lack of pace. He’s been seen at his best coming off a strong pace as shown in the Middle Park. The lack of pace and the possibility of a tactical race could suit Lusail. The Richard Hannon trained colt won a Group 2 at Newmarket’s July Meeting before going onto win the Group 2 Gimcrack Stakes at York. He ended last season with a disappointing effort when last of four at Doncaster on good to soft but he’s surely better than his last time effort and drying ground will suit. Only has 2lb to find with Angel Bleu & Perfect Power on Official Ratings (OR)

Seventeen are set to go to post for the big betting race of the day the Class 2 Highclere Thoroughbred Racing 30th Anniversary Spring Cup Handicap (3:35). The second (Saleymm), third (Rogue Bear) fourth (Irish Admiral) and seventh (Modern News)in the Lincoln all reoppose. Of that group the one I like is Rogue Bear. The 4-year-old wasn’t well way at Doncaster but still best of those coming from behind in a race which the leaders didn’t come back to their rivals. He’s been well found in the betting and is a winnable mark but the quickening ground is a concern. Orbaan is on a long losing run but is nicely treated on the best of his form. He will be sharper for his recent return to action at Redcar. He had no chance from his high draw that day and is the sort that needs a very strongly run race and all the cards to fall right. Ryan Moore has been booked for Migration who won twice last season over 1m 2f at Goodwood and York. The drop back to a mile shouldn’t be an inconvenience for his seasonal return although I don’t think he would want the ground to be quicker than good.

Musselburgh

Marshall Dan finished a ¾ length 2^nd of 11 in the Betway Musselburgh Silver Arrow Handicap (2:04). That run came off 112-day absence and he’s back from a similar absence today. The 7-year-old can race off 2lb lower this timer around which gives him a good chance of going one better. However, he does have a wide draw in stall 10 to overcome. If he can get across to take up a prominent position from his stall, he will be tough to pass. Gioia Cieca is better drawn in stall five. He won over C&D last summer (good to firm) and put in a career best effort on RPR’s when a ¼ length 2^nd off 11 to Modern News at Doncaster. The 4-year-old had only had seven career starts and could be capable of more improvement this season but he may want quicker ground than seems likely today.

The Betway Holyrood Handicap (2:39) looks a tricky 5f sprint. Last year’s runner-up Zarzyni has occupied the runner-up spot on his three starts on the all-weather in 2022. He’s got race fitness on his side and gets the first time cheekpieces today but stall one doesn’t appeal. Dakota Gold has a touch of back class. No wins last season in what a largely disappointing campaign but that means the handicapper has given the 9-year-old a chance. He’s tended to need his first start in recent seasons but if he’s ready to roll he’s got a good chance from his draw in 11. Makanah a useful sprinter on his day put in his best performance last season when a short head 2^nd of 6 over C&D in a Class 2 handicap. He didn’t get the clearest of run 1f out that day, if he had he would probably have won. He can race off 2lb lower now and did win first time up in 2019 & 2020.

With £100,000 in guaranteed prize money the Betway Queen’s Cup (Heritage Handicap) (3:14) is the most valuable flat race of the season at Musselburgh. The betting is headed by the Emmet Mullins trained Zero Ten. The trainer who landed last week’s Grand National is pot hunting again here. Zero Ten. The 9-year-old a multiple winner over hurdles and fences won a Galway maiden last summer on the flat before finish runner-up at Tramore on his handicap debut. Was thought good enough and wasn’t disgraced when a 6 ¾ lengths fifth of 12 in the Group 1 Prix Royal-Oak at Longchamp last time. He won first time up last season and Benoit de la Sayette takes off a handy 7lb of the top weight back. HMS President proved he stayed 1m 6f when a 1 ¾ length 2^nd of 10 at Doncaster last September. He was well below his best on his final two starts of last season on ground that was probably too soft for him. Not the easiest to win with 1-17 on turf but starts the new season on a competitive mark. Themaxwecan won this race last season and can race off the same mark here. Provided the going is no worse than good he’s got a great chance of back-to-back wins in this valuable contest. Ian Williams had last year’s runner-up and saddles two in Enemy and Haliphon. The first named looks the pick of his pair. The 5-year-old a winner when trained in France had two runs for his new yard in Meydan earlier this year, finishing a 6 ¼ length 4^th of 15 in a Group 3 over today’s trip. Given that was the 5-year-old’s first run beyond 1m 2f it was a good staying performance. Very much unexposed as a stayer and looks set for a big run.

Fairyhouse

Day one of Fairyhouse’s Grand National Meeting and two big field handicaps look the most interesting races on a seven-race card.

Seventeen have been declared I.N.H. Stallion Owners EBF Novice Handicap Hurdle Series Final (Grade B) (4:15).  Nell’s Well had Bugs Moran 1 ¾ length back in third when winning a 3m handicap hurdle at Cork last month. Bugs Moran gets a 4lb pull in the weights. He’s totally unexposed over the distance looked well suited by the step up to 3m last time. Nell’s Well has had a tremendous season winning three times and has improved on each of her last three starts since stepping up to 3m. I fancy the improving mare to confirm form with Bugs Moran with Rachel Blackmore an eyecatching jockey booking for the 8-year-old. Willie Mullins saddled last year’s winner and has a couple of live contenders in Tempo Chapter Two, a winner of a novice hurdle here in February (2m). He never got competitive in the County Hurdle last time but is interesting upped markedly in trip and is the pick of Paul Townend. Belle Metal is the other Mullins runner to note. The mare has only had three starts over hurdles and got off the mark for the first time in a Navan novice hurdle (2m) last month. Like her stablemate she’s markedly up in distance but she shapes like a stayer and there is plenty of stamina on the dam’s side. Looks capable of further improvement with racing and is on competitive mark for her handicap debut.  

The RYBO Handicap Hurdle (Grade A) (4:50) has over €100,000 in guaranteed prize money with €59,000 on offer to the winner. Plenty in with a chance in this 2m handicap hurdle which seems likely to be run at strong pace. Willie Mullins has saddled the winner of the race five times since 2012 and he has no less than seven of the 19 runners. Farout the choice of Paul Townend wasn’t disgraced when an 11-length 9^th of 26 in the County Hurdle. The forecast strong pace will suit the holdup performer and he shouldn’t be far away. The other two Mullins runners that catch the eye are Tax For Max and La Prima Donna.  Tax For Max has plenty of ability but needs to settle better than he has been doing, He was a 2 ¾ length runner-up to Farout in a Galway novice hurdle last summer and gets 6lb from his stablemate. Off for 8 months before falling at the last, beaten at the time, in the County Hurdle last time. Should be sharper today and the forecast pace could help him settle better. La Prima Donna is bred to be win races. The mare shaped with promise on her first run for Willie Mullins when 2^nd of 13 at Clonmel two starts back. Looked the likeliest winner when falling two out at Limerick last time. Open to further improvement but her relative inexperience is a concern in a race like this. Jesse Evans a winner of a Killarney handicap hurdle last May was a good 2 ½ length 4^th of 20, off today’s mark in last year’s Galway Hurdle. The 6-year-old likely needed the run, off for four months, when down the field in the County Hurdle last time. He goes well in big field handicaps and can’t be discounted off his present mark. Nodoubtaboutthat was in good form last spring/summer and progressed to beat 19 rivals in mares only handicap hurdle at the Galway Festival. She has a 195-day absence to overcome but she went close over C&D at this meeting last year off a 117-day lay off so can run well fresh. Double bumper winner Glan got off the mark at her second attempt over hurdles when a winning a 2m 2f novice hurdle here on October. The mare put in a personal best on her handicap debut when finishing a neck 2^nd of 18 over C&D two starts back. Looked set for another big run and was still going well two out before finishing a 14-length 5th of 15 to Party Central in mares handicap at Leopardstown last time. The 7-year-old seems to go well on a sound surface and when she gets it can win a race like this.

Betting Advice:

I’m giving the Group 3’s a miss from a value perspective at Newbury and concentrating on today’s handicaps of which there are plenty.

Newbury

3:35 – 1pt each way – Orbaan – 25/1 @ Bet365 & Ladbrokes (both paying 5 places 1/5 odds)

Musselburgh

2:04 – 1pt win – Marshall Dan – 9/1 @ Bet365

2:39 – 1pt win – Dakota Gold – 15/2 @ Bet365

3:14 – 1pt win – Enemy – 9/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook

Fairyhouse

4:15 – 1pt win – Nell’s Well – 7/1 @ Bet365

4:50 – 1pt win – Glan – 9/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes and 1pt win – Nodoubtaboutthat – 10/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

Cheers

John

Hi all,

A full day’s action on the all-weather on Good Friday. All-Weather Finals Day switches away from Lingfield to Newcastle for the first time this year. Although Lingfield still races this afternoon as does Chelmsford. I’m not sure there was a need for three cards today. That said all three meetings don’t lack for runners so maybe there is a need.

ITV are covering six races from Newcastle and three from Lingfield on a bumper nine race show on ITV this afternoon.  I have had a look at three races on both the Newcastle and Lingfield cards and my betting advice can be found at the end of the main piece.

Newcastle

There’s a real international flavour to All-Weather Finals Day with runners from France & Ireland joining the home team. That’s exemplified by the first race being covered live on ITV the All-Weather Mile Championships Conditions Stakes (2:00).  There are two Irish trained runners in San Andreas & Freescape and two French raiders in Amilcar & Fort Payne.

My Oberon heads the official ratings for the race. A winner of a Group 3 race at Newmarket last April the 5-year-old made a winning all-weather debut on the tapeta at Southwell and the he wasn’t disgraced when a 4 ½ length 6th of 14 to dead-heaters in the Group 1 Dubai Turf at Meydan last time.  The one to beat if close to anything like his best today.

The French pair both interest me. Amilcar returns from a 3-month absence to finish a 1 ¾ length 4th of 10 to Tinker Toy in listed race at Wolverhampton last time. He was giving 3lb to the three that finished ahead of him at Wolverhampton and would have preferred a stronger pace to chase.  The other French trained runner Fort Payne has won two of his last three starts, including winning over a mile at Chantilly 45-days ago. He’s only 1lb below Amilcar on RPR’s so needs respecting here.

There looks to be a strong field for the Betway All-Weather Sprint Championships Conditions Stakes (2:35). Once again, we have runners from Ireland (Harry’s Bar) and one from France (Bouttemont).

Harry’s Bar is a Dundalk specialist who returned to winning ways in handicap company at Dundalk. Under top-weight of 10-4, the 7-year-old put in career best on RPR’s last time. The application of the first time cheekpieces did the trick last time and he’s got to be respected back on the tapeta.

French raider Bouttemont is more of an unknown quality. However, the 4-year-old put in a career best effort when winning over an extended 6f at Chantilly last month. He looks progressive on that form and is one for the shortlist.

Top of the shortlist must be previous C&D winner Ejtilaab. The 6-year-old wasn’t disgraced in three starts on the turf/dirt in Meydan in the first two months of the year. He showed no ill effects from his travels when comfortably winning a Class 2 handicap at Kempton 20-days ago. He’s very much an inform sprinter and will take some beating although he won’t get an uncontested lead here.

Another inform sprinter is Spycatcher who got off the mark at the third attempt on the all-weather when winning a Listed race at Lingfield last time. He needed every yard of the 6f to prevail close home last time. Today’s stiffer track and forecast strong pace should suit the 4-year-old who looks an improved.

Frankie Dettori comes to Newcastle for just two rides and the main reason he makes the journey looks to be to ride Marshall Plan in the Betway All-Weather Marathon Championships Conditions Stakes (4:15).

Marshall Plan has run respectably on his last three starts on the synthetics including when beaten a nose in a 1m 6f Class 2 handicap at Chelmsford last time. He takes on some experienced two milers here in Sleeping Lion, Earlofthecotswolds & Rainbow Dreamer on his first start beyond 1m 6f.. At least we know the surface suits him as he went close here last summer and won at Wolverhampton last spring. The 4-year-old needs to find some improvement for the step up in distance to beat those three rivals but if he does, he shouldn’t be far away.

Over at Lingfield it’s a seven-race card and its handicaps all the way but some excellent prize money means 87 horses have been declared for the seven races.

Lingfield

The first of the ITV races is the Betway All-Weather Vase Sprint Handicap (2:20). The 6f Class 2 sprint has attracted a competitive field of 12 runners. Likely favourite Crimson Tide has run well on all three starts since returning from a 117-day absence including when a 1 ¼ length 2^nd of 6 here over 5f last month. The return to 6f will suit and the 4-year-old’s form figures around here 1142. He has a good draw in stall 5 and the first time cheekpieces could eke out a bit more improvement.

Tommy De Vito, a winner at Kempton and Southwell over the winter, returned from an 8-week absence to finish a 2 ½ length 2nd of 8 to Ejtilaab at Kempton 20-days ago. He drops back in class here and could easily return to winning ways here.

Shallow Hal has been running to a good level over the winter. He showed he remains in form when a 1 ½ length 2^nd of 15 at Thirsk last Saturday. He’s better horse on the synthetics and another big run can’t be discounted from a yard among the winners.

Count Otto has dropped down to a very tempting handicap mark and tou don’t have dig deep in his form to see why. A winner here over 7f last March, off 5lb higher. The gelding went onto win a Class 2 handicap (6f) at Newmarket the following month off an 8lb higher mark. He’s shaped on his last two starts ran very encouragingly when a 3 ¾ length third of 12 at Kempton last time to think he’s turn could be near.

The Coral All-Weather Vase Three-Year-Old Handicap (2:55) has attracted a maximum field of 12. Looking at pace forecast they should go a good gallop from the off.  As you would expect from a 3-year-old handicap there are plenty of progressive types among the runners.

Zameka didn’t lack pace when making all to win a Wolverhampton novice in January. He’s been gelded since and a mark of 81 for his handicap debut looks workable. Stall 6 could be worse and he seems sure to be popular with punters.

Vespasian could have been better drawn in stall 10 but he’s another who looks progressive. A winner on his handicap debut Newcastle last time. He’s been raised up 6lb for a 2-length success but he remains on a competitive looking mark.

Aasser won a 6f Wolverhampton novice in December beating 13 rivals by a length. A mark of 80 for his handicap debut looks more than fair for a colt capable of better. Karl Burke yard is among the winners

Clase Azul Ultra ran well when a ¾-length 3rd of 9 on handicap debut over C&D 15-days ago. Race fit, has a handy draw in stall 1 and gets the first-time blinkers but he does face some potentially well handicapped rivals.

Irish raider Form Of Praise put in an improved performance to win for the first time for his new yard at Dundalk 23-days ago. That success came over 7f and a drop back to 6f asks another question of the inform filly.

Resilience has really hit form since joining the Tony Carroll yard winning twice at Wolverhampton & Kempton. Both wins came over the minimum trip but he stays 6f and is only 2lb higher than for his latest success. Faces a few unexposed types but should give his backers a good run for their money.

The final race covered by ITV is the All-Weather Vase Mile Handicap (4:00).  Like the previous two handicaps the race has attracted a maximum field of 12 runners. It’s a wide-open race with the Julie Camacho trained Proclaimer likely to head the betting. The 5-year-old has developed into a very useful handicapper on the all-weather. He comes into the race bidding for the four timer after making all to win at Kempton 9-days ago. Has a a 5lb penalty to contend with but if his rivals let him dictate the pace, he will be tough to pass.

I prefer just prefer the claims of Totally Charming. The 4-year-old, a winner for his previous yard at Wolverhampton last July, made a winning start for new trainer George Boughey at Kempton in January. Has remained in good form on both subsequent starts including when a ½ length 3rd of 10 here (1m 2f) last time. An 83-day layoff shouldn’t be an issue, as he won off a longer break in January. He’s only 1lb higher than last time and looks sure to run well again.

All three of Karibana’s wins have come over 7f and although he stays a mile, he may be better over a bit shorter. That said he’s been given a chance by the handicapper, now 1lb below last year’s winning mark. Hasn’t beaten a rival on either of his last two starts but there were possible excuses, he wore a hood last time. The cheekpieces which he wore when a nose 2^nd of 9 at Kempton in September return. The booking of William Buick is another positive as his form figures on the 5-year-old are any eyecatching 1212.

Betting Advice:

Newcastle

2:00 – 1pt win – Amilcar – 7/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes and 1pt win – Fort Payne – 9/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

2:35 – 1pt win – Ejtilaab – 4/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

4:15 – 1pt win – Marshall Plan – 7/1 @ Bet365 & Ladbrokes

Lingfield

2:20 – Count Otto – 8/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

2:55 – Aasser – 6/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

Cheers

John

Hi all,

The final day of Newmarket’s Craven meeting the feature race is the Listed Feilden Stakes (3.35). It’s not best in terms of quality and ITV are not covering today’s action on the Rowley Mile. It’s day two of Cheltenham’s April Meeting and it’s the mares that take centre stage at Prestbury Park. Comparing the two cards. You could argue that the Cheltenham card provides the better betting opportunities.  I have a selection from both meetings.

Newmarket

3:00 – Carolus Magnus made it 2-2 at the course when winning a C&D handicap last September. He starts the season off 5lb higher but the 4-year-old hails from the inform Charlie Hills yard and looks the right favourite.

At the prices though I’m happy to take a chance with Ataser. The 4-year-old an improving juvenile wining three of his five starts. Only raced twice as a 3-year-old. He ran a shocker on his reappearance in the Britannia Handicap at Royal Ascot but there was more to like about 3-length 5^th of 7 at Doncaster in September. A mile should suit given the way he finished off his race last time and he’s been gelded since his last run.

1pt win – Ataser – 7/1 @ Bet365

Cheltenham

2:40 – There was plenty to like about Kissesforkatie’s win at Chepstow last month. It was a career best effort on RPR’s from the 8-year-old.  She’s up 6lb for a 4-length success but given the ease of her win last time she’s likely remains on a competitive mark.

Litterale Ci returned from a winter break to finish a 2 ¼ length 2nd of 3 at Ludlow 17-days ago. The 9-year-old should be sharper today, is very effective on good ground and shouldn’t be far away.

Panic Attack went close off today’s mark when a ½ length 2^nd of 11 at Aintree last May. Not disgraced on either start since including returning from a 5-month layoff to finish a 16-length 3rd of 11 to Beauport at Uttoxeter last month. Not subjected to hard race last time and better expected with the first-time blinkers replacing the cheekpieces. Trainer David Pipe had a winner here yesterday and is 9-21 (43%) with his runners in the past 14-days.

1pt win – Panic Attack – 4/1 @ Bet365 & Ladbrokes

Cheers

John

Hi all,

Day two of the Craven Meeting continues and the feature race is the Group 3 Craven Stakes (3.35) with the Group 3 Abernant Stakes (3.00) the second Group race on a seven-race card.

Whilst I don’t think we saw a Classic winner in yesterday’s Nell Gwyn. There’s a good chance we might see one today in the Craven Stakes.

Besides Newmarket there’s also good jump card at Cheltenham. In this preview I have had a look at the four races on day two of the Craven Meeting.

Some good action from both codes for a Wednesday and the Newmarket and Cheltenham cards wouldn’t be out of place on a Saturday.

Newmarket

1:50 – bet365 Handicap (Class 2) – 6f

Thirteen 3-year-old handicap sprinters for the first of the ITV races.  Pocket The Profit returned to winning ways on is seasonal reappearance at Pontefract 8-days ago. That was a much-improved performance from the 3-year-old who made it 5 wins from 10 starts. I doubt a 6lb penalty will stop him but his best form has come with plenty of give in the ground.

Object also put in a career best effort last time when winning at Kempton on nursery debut. He’s 6lb higher now but has the scope to better as a 3-year-old. He won on good to firm on the July Course last season so shouldn’t have any issues with the likely ground.

System came to hand early last season before her form regressed on her final two starts. If she can reproduce her early form she would be in the mix.

Vintage Clarets doesn’t look badly treated on the best of his juvenile form which included a 1 ½ length 3^rd of 17 in the Group 2 Coventry Stakes at Royal Ascot. Form of the Richard Fahey yard is a concern as he’s gone 40 days and 39 runners without a winner.

2:25 – bet365 Wood Ditton Maiden Stakes (Class 3) – 1m

Thirteen, mostly well bred, unraced 3-year-olds. Many of whom have pedigrees which should see them improve for a step up in trip. One to note in this regard is the William Haggas trained I’m The Sea. The son of Sea The Stars is bred to appreciate middle distances.

Roger Varian saddled the 2019 winner and he run’s Toophan who should well suited to a mile. Another who should be suited by the race distance is likely favourite Secret State.

3:00 – Connaught Access Flooring Abernant Stakes (Group 3) – 6f

It’s rare to see 3-year-olds in the race and we have two in this year’s contest. The most likely of the pair seems to be Ebro River. A quicky juvenile who put it altogether to win the Group 1 Phoenix Stakes at the Curragh last season. He’s the one to beat on form but he might prefer a bit more ease in the ground.

Garrus a useful sprinter who won a Group 3 at Deauville last season looked in need of his seasonal reappearance when a 2 ½ length 4th of 7 in a Listed race at Doncaster 18-days ago. That will have blown away the cobwebs away and Ryan Moore 2-2 on the horse is back in the saddle today.

Jumby had a good 2021 winning three times in handicap company, including his last two starts. He looks worth another try in pattern company especially as two of his wins have come here on the Rowley Course.

3:35 – bet365 Craven Stakes (Group 3) – 1m

Native Trail, ante post favourite for the Qipco 2,000 Guineas, will be long odds on to beat six rivals in the Craven. The Charlie Appleby trained colt is 2-2 in Group 1s including landing the Dewhurst on his last start and puts his four-race unbeaten record on the line today.  

The favourite faces several rivals with plenty of potential for improvement in their second seasons.  Aidan O’Brien runs the once raced Star Of India. The son of Galileolooked useful when winning at Leopardstown on his race course debut last October.

Al Mubir was another to win on his sole juvenile start here (7f) in the autumn. He’s capable of a lot better as 3-year-old but he’s thrown in the deep end here.

Claymore also won his sole 2-year-old start last October. The New Bay colt overcame greenness to make all for what looked an impressive 4-length success to my eye. It was soft when he won last time but if he’s as effective on better ground can win more races this summer. He’s not one to underestimate.  

Zechariah ended last season on an upward curve winning his last two starts at Sandown and Newbury. The colt is ground versatile and looks worth his place in pattern company.

Besides four races from Newmarket. The ITV cameras are also covering the first two races live from Cheltenham.

Cheltenham

1:30 – Kingston Stud Handicap Hurdle (Class 2) – 2m 4 ½ f

Romeo Brown produced a career best on RPR’s when making most for a 4 ¼ length success in a Class 2 handicap hurdle at Kelso last time. A 7lb rise in the weights demands more from the 8-year-old but he remains on a good mark and is ideally suited by good ground.

2:05 – Matt Hampson Foundation Silver Trophy Handicap Chase (Grade 2) (A Limited Handicap) – 2m 4 ½

Simply The Betts, seems to reserve his best for Cheltenham. Twice a winner around here including at the festival in 2020 for his previous trainer. His top five RPR’s have come here at around today’s trip. Two good runs and two poor ones this season since joining the Paul Nicholls yard. There was plenty of promise in 6^th of 19 in the Paddy Power in November and he put in a career best when a 1 ¼ length 2^nd of 16 to Vienna Court in a valuable handicap chase over C&D on New Year’s Day but has poor run to overcome when well beaten in the Grade 2 Cotswold Chase last time. Has been given 74-day break though and is 3 from 6 runs when returning from a 60+day break.

Betting Advice:

1:50 – 1pt win – Object – 7/1 @ Bet365 and 0.5pt each way – Vintage Clarets – 20/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

3:00 – 1pt win – Garrus – 5/1 @ Bet365

Cheltenham

1:30 – Romeo Brown – 9/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

2:05 – Simply The Betts – 4/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

Cheers

John

Hi all,

Monday’s action was low key on the quality front. The good news is the action gets better as the week goes on. Today see’s flat racing returns to Newmarket with the start of the three-day Craven Meeting and it’s Classic Trials.

I love this time of the year. Plenty of 3-year-old bubbles are about to be burst over the coming weeks but for now the dream of classic glory remains alive.

It’s a seven-race card for the first day of the Craven Meeting with the highlights being: The Group 3 bet365 Earl Of Sefton Stakes (3:00) and the Group 3 Lanwades Stud Nell Gwyn Stakes (3:35). The latter is a trial for the 1000 Guineas and has attracted a field of nine 3-year-old fillies.

If you’re lucky enough to be off for the next couple of days you watch the best of the action from Newmarket live on ITV4.

In today’s preview I have looked at the four races live on ITV and the concluding handicap

Newmarket

1:50 – Weatherbys Bloodstock Pro Handicap (Class 2) – 6f

A competitive sprint handicap with thirteen declared to run and you can make a case for plenty of them. Here are the four on my shortlist.

Bergerac a 6f handicap winner at York in September, off 1lb lower, has returned from his winter break finishing third at Southwell and then 3^rd of 18 at Doncaster 16-days ago.  The first time cheekpieces are applied today and hopefully they eke out a bit more improvement in the 4-year-old.

Stone Of Destiny was subject to a Stewards Enquiry after his 6 ¼ length 9^th off 11 in this race 12 months ago. Not the easiest to win with, last success came in the 2020 Portland Handicap. Ran well on plenty of occasions last season and there’s no doubt the 7-year-old is down to a winnable mark when all the cards fall right.

Gale Force Maya was in great form last Autumn winning 6f handicaps at Pontefract and over C&D before finishing a head 2^nd of 13 in a fillies Listed race over C&D. Form figures over C&D are 2312 and she’s goes well fresh being 2-4 when returning from a 121+day break so lack of recent run need not be an issue for the mare. Likely does need good to firm ground to win today though.

Chipstead, a full brother to the trainer’s smart double Group 1 winning sprinter Oxted. He’s probably not going to scale the heights of his sibling but he developed in to a very useful handicap sprinter last season winning three handicaps, including a Class 2 handicap over an extended 5f at Bath on his final start. Up 4lb for his latest success but is going the right way and we might not have the best of him yet.

2:25 – bet365 European Free Handicap (Listed Race) – 7f

Just the five go to post for this 3-year-old only handicap. The early market leader is the Charlie Appleby trained New Science. A useful juvenile who won a 7f Ascot Listed race last July (firm). Not at his best when a 3-length 3^rd of 6 to Sovereign Prince in Listed race at Meydan in February. Remains with potential and is suited to sound surface.

Honey Sweet found improvement for the fitting of the first time cheekpieces when winning a Deauvile Listed race (soft) in October. Both career wins have come on soft/heavy so today’s ground but she has form on a quicker surface. There’s seems to be a lack of early pace so the filly could get an uncontested lead here.

Richard Hannon won the Free Handicap in 2014 & 2018 and he saddles Tacarib Bay today who looked a nice prospect when winning on his racecourse debut at Haydock in May (soft). Off for five months before finishing a useful 2-length 3^rd of 7 in a Group 3 Horris Hill at Newbury. First start on ground quicker than soft but he looks capable of more this year. Ryan Moore has been booked for the ride.

Ribhi a winner on his racecourse debut at Salisbury. The colt was then pitched into the deep end in Listed company at Doncaster’s St Leger Festival. Ran a shade green when asked for his effort 2f and didn’t get the clearest of passages 1f out before finishing a 2-length 5^th of 9^th. Had to dig in to prevail back at Salisbury (soft) on his final juvenile start. Another capable of more improvement this season Today’s better ground will suit as should the return to 7f.

3:00 – bet365 Earl Of Sefton Stakes (Group 3) – 1m 1f

Just the seven are set to go post for today’s race. However, that’s close to the average field size for the contest since 2008.

Magellan, trained by John Gosden, is an appealing contender given his trainers recent record in the race. He has 5lb to find with the favourite on OR’s. A winner of Salisbury Group 3 on his penultimate start last season. He ended last season with a respectable 5^th of 10 at Longchamp (1m 2f) where the ground might have been a bit soft for him. The colt looks the sort to do well as a 4-year-old and today’s intermediate trip could really suit him.

Bell Rock has won over C&D in the past and indeed all his career wins have come here on the Rowley Course – 3 wins from 5 runs + 41.50 4 placed. His sole poor run here came when down the field in last season’s Cambridgeshire. Good or quicker ground suits him and his record fresh is excellent 3 wins from 4 runs when returning from a 121-day layoff.

Catch Twentytwo, trained by Jane Chapple-Hyam, is an intriguing runner.  The 4-year-old won a Grade 3 and finished runner-up in two Grade 1’s when trained in South Africa. First run since July and first start for his new yard. Hard to weight up his South African form but on OR’s he’s just 1lb behind Master Of The Seas.

Brunch, a smart handicapper at a mile and won a Listed race at Pontefract last summer. The 5-year-old finished 3 ¼ lengths eighth of 22 to Johan in Lincoln on his seasonal return. He will be sharper with that run under his belt but does have a bit to find on ratings with the likes of Master Of The Seas & Magellan.

3:35 – Lanwades Stud Nell Gwyn Stakes (Group 3) – 7f

Cachet & Hello You come into the race with the best juvenile form. The latter beat the former by 1 ½ lengths when the pair were first and second in the Group 2 Rockfel Stakes last September and ended last season finishing 4^th & 5^th respectively in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Filles Turf at Del Mar. Cachet gets 3lb from her old rival today and that should swing it in her favour here.

Romantic Time won a Group 3 over 6f at Salisbury last August but failed to settle when a well beaten 7^th in the Rockfel on her final start of 2021. She’s surely better that performance suggests. Hollie Doyle who was in the plate at Salisbury is back onboard today and the filly has place claims if she settles better than last time.

The most interesting of the nine runners is Ribbon Rose. The Marco Botti trained filly won a maiden over C&D in October and showed she had trained on from two to three when beating eight rivals in a Kempton novice last month. The daughter of Time Test only has an OR of 81 so it’s interesting to see connection pitch her in the deep end rather than take advantage of what looks a decent handicap mark. Open to further improvement she also has the benefit of race fitness on her side compared to all her rivals who are making their seasonal reappearance.

4:45 – Just the seven 3-year-olds for what could turn out to be an informative 1m 2f handicap. Six of the seven runners look open further improvement this season. Just one of the seven runners Thunder Max has the benefit of a recent run with the rest all returning from a winter break.

Thunder Max won on quick ground on his racecourse debut before disappointing on soft ground in a Pontefract Listed race in October. Shaped like the run was needed when a 4 ½ length 3^rd of 8 at Doncaster 16-days ago. Doing his best work at the finish he can do better now going handicapping.

Wind Your Neck In was in good form at the end of last season winning at Salisbury and a C&D nursery on his handicap debut. Up 5lb but likely capable of better as a 3-year-old. Both wins came on soft ground but Ryan Moore who rode him to both success stays in the saddle.

Israr a winner of a Doncaster maiden on his juvenile debut before a 3 ½ length 2^nd of 13 to Wind Your Neck In at Salisbury. He was trying to give 6lb to the winner that day so that was a decent effort and he’s 8lb better off here. The Gosden yard won this 2014 & 2017.

Educator improved with each of his three starts as a juvenile and seemed to appreciate the fitting of the first time cheekpieces when winning a Haydock in September. Today’s trip will suit as he’s bred to appreciate middle distances this season and is open to further progress.

High Fibre looked a big improver stepped up to 1m 1f when a 5-length winner of a nursery here on his final 2-year-old start. Has been hiked up 10lb for that that win but should improve further for the step up to 1m 2f+ this season.

Independent Act, trained by Charlie Appleby who saddled Old Persian to win this in 2018, was weak in the betting when winning a Lingfield maiden on his racecourse debut in November. Not disgraced when 4 ½ lengths 4^th of 11 at Kempton a month later under a penalty. Going for home a bit to early that day. Remains with potential on his turf debut and has been gelded since his last start.

Betting Advice:

Newmarket

1:50 – 1pt win – Bergerac – 13/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes and 1pt win – Chipstead – 7/1 @ Bet365

3:35 – 1pt win – Ribbon Rose – 10/1 @ Bet365

Cheers

John

Hi all,

After two good days at Aintree, Saturday was disappointing with only Any Second Now in the Grand National giving us much to shout about. Jumping the last I thought he was going to give me another National winner but it wasn’t to be as he came up against a well handicapped winner Noble Yeats who outstayed the selection on the run in.

It looks like it will be a busy week for the service next week with Newmarket’s three-day Craven Meeting starting on Tuesday. There won’t be any selections on Monday but I have a couple at the Curragh this afternoon.

Curragh

3:40 – Hollywoodbets Gladness Stakes (Group 3) – 7f

Markaz Paname has improved from two to three and was a good winner of the valuable Madrid Handicap over today’s distance at Naas 14-days ago. Taking on the older horses here but is open to more improvement and is the one to beat.

Thunder Moon, a smart juvenile, won the Group 1 National Stakes over C&D and finished third in the Dewhurst in 2020.  He only ran to his smart 2-year-old form one last year when head second to Laws of Indices in Group 1 Prix Jean Prat at Deauville last July.

Belle Image a 1 ¼ length4^th of 14 in last year’s Irish 1,000 Guineas and a 1 ¾ length 5^th of 14 to Mother Earth in the Group 1 Prix Rothschild last August could prove competitive again in pattern company this season. However, she needed her seasonal reappearance last year and trainer Sheila Lavery tells the Racing Post “I haven’t had a clear run with her. She’s not where I’d want her and is just ready to start back. She’ll improve for whatever she does here.”

Ace Aussie started last season in good form finishing runner-up to Poetic Flare on his seasonal return and a 1 ½ length 3^rd of 8 in a Group 3 at Leopardstown. Ran poorly on two subsequent starts. Has been gelded since his last start but may be better on ground better than yielding.

Current Option is well suited to 7f with all six of his career wins coming over the distance. Ran well for a long way when a 6 ¼ length 9^th of 26 in the Irish Lincolnshire last time. The 6-year-old just found his stamina stretched that day and he did finish runner-up in today’s race last year.  

Verdict: The improving Markaz Paname is the most likely winner but Current Option looks set for a big run in what doesn’t look the strongest of Group 3’s.

1pt win – Current Option – 6/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

4:12 – Hollywoodbets Daily Boosts Handicap – 6f

Plenty in with a chance in this 23-runner sprint handicap which looks set be run at a very strong pace if the pace forecast proves correct.

Handicap debutant Carlton Banks won a Naas 6f maiden (heavy) on his final start last season. Just the three career starts and he’s open to further improvement as a 4-year-old.

Stag Night won a 15-runners maiden at Navan when last seen in action in July. Another making his handicap debut today and could be capable of better this season. However, he does have a long absence to overcome and may need this.

Mickey The Steel was beaten a neck by Carlton Banks at Naas last October and seems to have returned to action in good form after his ½ length 2^nd of 11 back at Naas 14-days ago. Remains a maiden after 16 starts but still looks capable of popping up in sprint handicap this season.

Moss Tucker ended last season with a 5f Tipperary handicap win last October. He had been running over much further last season but drop back to 5f on testing ground seemed to suit that day, he also went close over 6f on quick ground last season. Starts the new season 8lb higher but he’s unexposed over sprint distances and is respected.

Blairmayne twice a winner over C&D in 2019 is suited to these big field handicaps with three of his six career wins have come in field sizes 16+. This is the 9-year-old’s first start for 175-days but he’s gone well fresh in the past and his form figures when returning from a 121+day layoff are 691532. Maybe a bit high in the eights now but has each way claims.

Most of Breaking Story’s best form for his previous trainer Shelia Lavery came over 7f & 1m. Has stepped up with each start since joining new trainer Richard O’Brien. Dropped back to 6f for the first time since his juvenile season shaping with plenty of encouragement when a 1 length 3^rd of 11 to Lord Dudley at Naas two weeks ago, half a length behind Mickey The Steel. A 1-22 career record isn’t great, sole success came on his racecourse debut here over 7f, but the 6-year-old is now a well-treated horse.

Verdict: Maiden winners Carlton Banks & Stag Night are interesting on their seasonal reappearances/handicap debuts. Moss Tucker ended last season with personal best and although he’s 8lb higher could do better as 4-year-old. Blairmayne goes well over C&D and has a good record fresh. The well handicapped and ground versatile Breaking Story is unexposed over sprint trips and Declan MacDonagh takes over in the saddle today.

1pt win – Breaking Story – 12/1 @ Bet365 or 11/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes. 0.5pts win – Blairmayne – 12/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook and 0.5pts win – Carlton Banks – 12/1 @ Bet365.

Cheers

John

Hi all,

Another good day on Friday with two winners at Aintree and two seconds which was a bit frustrating.

There’s a seven-race card for the final day of Aintree’s Grand National Festival. The highlight of course is the Randox sponsored Grand National. Despite the modifications to the National fences tn recent years. It remains one of the biggest sporting events on the British calendar. The Grand National is the one race during the season that still captures the imagination of a large section of the wider public who come out for their once-a-year flutter.

Besides the “big one” there’s an excellent supporting card with two competitive big field handicaps and three Grade 1’s. As with the last three days I have had a look at all seven races on the Aintree card and today’s betting advice follows at the end of the preview.

Aintree Grand National Festival – Day 2

1:45 – EFT Construction Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) – 3m ½ f

Despite 22 runners I’m not sure the race will be that strongly run. If that’s the case one of my leading fancies in the race Dans Le Vent may not get the race run to suit. A hold up horse the 9-year-old was a good winner of the valuable Betfair Stayers’ Handicap Hurdle at Haydock in November. Has been mostly running well since although was well down the field in the Coral Cup last time. A return to 3m, a flat track and better ground suits and if he gets a good pace to chase has good claims.

Beauport’s consistency was rewarded when he won at Uttoxeter last time. The top-weight could be capable of a bit more progress for the return to 3m and is one for the shortlist.

Likely favourite Winter Fog looked much improved when 2^nd of 27 at Leopardstown two starts back and progressed further when a 3 ½ lengths fourth of 22 to Third Wind in Pertemps Final at Cheltenham last time. He travelled well at Cheltenham and remains capable of landing a decent handicap hurdle. One place and 1 ¼ length in front of Winter Fog was Mill Green. The step up 3m has been the making of the 10-year-old and there shouldn’t be much between him and Winter Fog again. Like the favourite you must be slightly worried that they may have had a hard race last time.

Serious Charges is very much on an upward curve and further improved for the step up to 3m when winning on his handicap debut at Uttoxeter last time. He’s up 13lb and in a much deeper race but looks capable of winning a race like this before too long.

Remastered who has been running with credit over fences this season showed he could still mix it in hurdle company when an encouraging 1 ¼ length 3^rd of 11 over C&D on his seasonal reappearance. Trainer David Pipe has saddled the winner of this twice since 2014 and has his horse in winning form in the past two weeks.

2:25 – Betway Mersey Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1) – 2m 4f

Three Stripe Life runner-up to Sir Gerhard on his last two starts has the best form shown, so far, by the 14 runners.

Walking On Air, missed Cheltenham butis in the “could be anything category”. The 5-year-old won his sole start over hurdles by 13-lengths at Newbury in January. The step up 2m 4f will suit and he remains an exciting prospect.

Recent winners Elle Est Belle and Good Risk At All need to improve to win in this company and the latter remains capable of better if he jumps with more fluency.

A short head separated Nells Son & North Lodge in a Kelso Grade 2 novice hurdle (soft) last time. The former was getting 5lb from the runner-up that day so there’s a chance the latter can reverse placings on today’s better ground. Today’s 2m 4f suits both horses but the drier ground more the latter.

Colonel Mustard put in a career best when 3- length 3^rd of 26 in the County Hurdle last time. That’s strong handicap form and the 7-year-old’s remains quite lightly raced. Has placed form in Grade 1 company in Ireland and can’t be dismissed here.

3:00 – Poundland Maghull Novices’ Chase (Grade 1) – 2m

Arkle novice chase winner Edwardstone is clearly the best of these on from and If he isn’t feeling the effects of a long season should win this.

Gentlemen De Mee, trained by Willie Mullins, looks the one to take advantage should the favourite underperform.  The 6-year-old has won his last two starts over fences, making all to win the Grade 3 Flying Bolt Novices’ Chase at Navan last month. He’s got 3lb to find on official ratings with Edwardstone and looks worth is place in Grade 1 company.

3:35 – JRL Group Liverpool Hurdle (Grade 1) – 3m ½ f

Flooring Porter was able to dictate the pace when winning the Stayers Hurdle at Cheltenham for the second year running. Not sure that get an easy lead today with the front running Ashdale Bob also in the field. Flooring Porter remains the one to beat.

Of those who finished behind him at Cheltenham runner-up Thyme Hill looks the most likely to do so. The 8-year-old. who was successful in this race 12 months, would have been suited by a stronger gallop last time. Not ideally placed in a tactical race if he gets a more even pace can get closer to the favourite over a C&D that suits.

Champ was a 1 ¾ length further back in fourth in the Stayers. He beat Thyme Hill at Ascot in December and is another who would have preferred a more even gallop at Cheltenham. Talented on his day but his limitations have been a bit exposed on his last two starts.

4:15 – Betway Handicap Chase (Grade 3) – 3m 1f

A cracking 18 runner handicap chase to prime us for the “big one”. Commodore, trained by Venetia Williams, was on my short list for this but has managed to sneak in at the bottom of the weights for the National so now misses this.

Shan Blue looked certain to win the Grade 2 Charlie Hill Chase at Wetherby back in October.  Was well clear before taking a heavy fall three out. Well beaten behind Allaho in the Grade 1 Ryanair Chase last time. Will find the return to handicap company more to his liking here. Looks a worthy favourite, if you accept his Charlie Hall performance at face value. However, he doesn’t make any appeal to me at around 5/2. That said the Dan Skelton yard had a well handicapped horse in Langer Dan win here yesterday.

Cape Du Nord returned to winning ways when landing a valuable 3m handicap chase at Kempton last time. He’s now 8lb higher but should remain competitive.

Killer Kane bids for the hat trick after small field handicap chase wins at Kempton and Sandown. He’s up 5lb for his latest success but is going the right way and shouldn’t be far away again.

Espoir De Romay, trained by Kim Bailey who saddled last year’s winner, was a very useful novice chaser last season. He hasn’t performed up to the level of last season’s form on either start this season, including when the 5/4 beaten favourite in a Listed Chase at Kelso last month. Remains capable of better though and he maybe needed his last race after a four-month layoff.

Scene Not Herd looked a very progressive handicap chaser, when jumping well to win his first three starts over fences. Better was expected from the 7-year- old before he finished a well beaten 4^th of 6 to Killer Kane at Sandown last time. The ground was soft at Sandown though and his winning form earlier in the season came on good to soft/good ground. Needs to bounce back but remains with potential if you ignore his last run.

Tea Clipper, a winner on good to firm on his chase debut in October, bounced back from two underwhelming runs in Graded company when a 11-length 4^th of 24 to Corach Rambler in the Ultima Handicap Chase at the Cheltenham Festival on his handicap chase debut. The return to better ground suited him last time. Third in last season’s Coral Cup at the Cheltenham Festival and he followed up with a similar effort when 3^rd of 19 in a 3m handicap hurdle here 12 months ago. He’s high on my shortlist for the race.

5:15 – Randox Grand National Handicap Chase (Grade 3) – 4m 2 ½ f

I had fourteen on my shortlist for the race earlier in the week. Whilst I have had a fair amount of success in the race in the past decade. It’s a race I see as a bit of fun rather than being anything more serious.

When you have 40 runners there’s always a chance that there will be a big priced winner of the race.  Auroras Encore (66/1,) in 2013, says hi! However, looking at the last five renewals of the race. Four of the last five winners where in the first four in betting forecast.

If you’re looking to whittle the field down to a manageable number of contenders? Here are some very recent trends that may help.

5/5 winners were aged 8yo to 9yo.

5/5 winners had run in a Grade 1 race.

5/5 winners had 10+ starts over fences. Since 2008 horses with less than ten runs over fences are 0 winners from 92 runners 7 placed. If you go even further back to 1997, its 2 winners from 229 runners 17 placed. The last horse to win having had nine or less starts over the larger obstacles was Earth Summit in 1998.

4/5 had won a race in their last three starts.

Snow Leopardess, Delta Work and last year’s third Any Second Now are vying for favouritism. The first named will be popular with the once-a-year punters. She’s a grey, a mare and a mum to boot. The race usually produces a feel-good story winner and Snow Leopardess ticks plenty of those boxes Delta Work bounced back to winning form when winning the Cross Country at Cheltenham last time and looks well treated now.

Last year’s winner Minella Times is 15lb higher this time around. It would be some performance if he can win again off his new mark. Any Second Now gets 8lb from Minella Times for 8 ¼ length beating. However, he looked a shade unlucky in the run, was badly hampered by a faller at the twelfth which meant he lost his place, meanwhile the winner got the perfect passage through the race. Of the front four at the head of the market at the prices  I like Any Second Now who’s yard and the runner-up in yesterday’s Topham.

Éclair Surf really got his jumping together to win the Classic Chase at Warwick two starts back. He’s since gone onto finish runner-up to Scottish Grand National Winner Win My Wings in the Eider Chase. The 8-year-old has only had a NINE starts over the larger obstacles.

Besides Éclair Surf trainer Emma Lavelle also seems likely to run De Rasher Counter. The 10-year-old has only had four starts since winning the 2019 Ladbroke Trophy. He ran a satisfactory prep for this when fourth in the Denman Chase at Newbury after a 489-day layoff.] last time. Can race off the same mark as when winning the Ladbroke.

Fiddlerontheroof finished runner-up in this season’s Ladbroke Trophy. He’s since gone onto finish runner-up at Ascot. The Labdroke Trophy form hasn’t really worked out so far but he ticks plenty of boxes and must be high on anyone’s shortlist.

Kildisart shaped as if he has retained plenty of ability when a never nearer 22 ½ length 4^th of 10 at Newbury, over an inadequate 2m 6 ½ f, last month. He’s another unexposed over long distances and looks nicely treated on the best of his back form.

Longhouse Poet an impressive winner of the valuable Thyestes Handicap Chase at Gowran Park two starts back. Unexposed as a stayer and has a touch of class. I was hoping that the 8-year-old would go for the Irish National. However, it looks like he will be coming here instead. He’s only had six starts over fences but trainer Martin Brassil won the race in 2006 so knows the type of horse required to win. The softer the ground the better his chance.

Dingo Dollar was a ¾ length 2^nd of 22 in last season’s Scottish Grand National, off his present mark. Three runs this season, was a decent 3^rd of 12 in the Rehearsal Chase at Newcastle in November, suggest he’s been campaigned with this race in mind. He looks overpriced on his best form but probably needs good ground and didn’t seem to take to the fences when running in the Grand Sefton for his previous trainer although that run did come on soft ground.

Enjoy D’allen will be racing for the first time in the silks of J P McManus. A 4 ½ length 3^rd of 28 in last year’s Irish Grand National. He’s clearly well suited to a big field as he showed this season when a 3-length 3^rd of 28 in the Paddy Power Handicap Chase over Christmas. Another to tick plenty of boxes and he’s unexposed over marathon trips. The blinkers he wore for the first time in last season’s Irish Grand National return for the first time since that improved performance.

Schoolboy Hours, has managed to sneak into race at the bottom of the weight, finally got off the mark on his 10^th attempt over fences when winning the valuable Paddy Power Handicap Chase at Leopardstown over Christmas. He was sent off the 5/1 joint favourite for the Kim Muir Handicap Chase at Cheltenham last time. The 8-year-old was making steady headway and getting into the race when stumbling on landing four out. It was a race ending mistake and he was pulled coming to two out. Very much one to consider now he’s managed to get into the race.

My approach to this year’s race is a simple one. I will be having four bets in the race and will be looking to back a couple at the front of the betting and supplement them with a couple at bigger odds.

6:15 – Weatherbys nhstallions.co.uk Standard Open National Hunt Flat Race (Grade 2) – 2m 1f

Twelve last time out winners among the twenty runners most of whom who are open to more progress. Tells you all you need to know about the race. Add in the likelihood of pace melt down and you have a race that looks a plenty tricky enough concluding race.

Rath Gaul Boy won a Leopardstown bumper on his racecourse debut last month. The Willie Mullins trained and likely favourite looked useful the last day and he should relish the forecast strong pace. Will be popular with punters in the ‘getting out stakes’ and the yard did win the mares’ bumper here on Thursday.

Ernest Grey made it 2-2 in bumpers when winning at Warwick under a 7lb penalty last time. The form of his Warwick success should work out well and he looks a smart hurdling prospect for next season. Trainer Alan King has had bumpers winners at this meeting in the past.

Jonjo O’Neill last won this race in 2013 but his runner Imperial Bede looks to have decent claims here. The 4-year-old has decent form in French bumpers, including a win at Fontainebleau in September. First start since joining the trainer and is an each- way contender.

Betting Advice:

Aintree

1:45 – 1pt win – Dans Le Vent – 14/1 @ Bet365 and 1pt win – Serious Charges – 9/1 @ Bet365

4:15 – 1pt win – Tea Clipper – 7/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes and 0.5pts each way – Scene Not Herd – 16/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes (both paying 5 places 1/5 odds)

5:15 – 1pt win – Éclair Surf – 14/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes, 1pt win – Enjoy D’allen – 14/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes, 1pt win – Any Second Now – 10/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes and 0.5pts each way – Dingo Dollar – 66/1 @ Bet365 (paying 6 places 1/5 odds).

Cheers

John

Hi all,

A good first day at the Grand National Festival. Just need to maintain that over the next couple of days. It won’t be easy though as the three handicaps look highly competitive and have all attracted big fields.

I have previewed all seven of the Aintree races and my betting advice is at the end of my main piece.

Aintree Grand National Festival – Day 2

1:45 – 20 Years Together, Alder Hey & Aintree Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) – 2m 4f

The market hadexpected Langer Dan (7/2 fav) to go one place better than 12 months earlier in the Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle at Cheltenham last time but was bought down at the second. The forecast strong pace will suit this normally hold up horse and his chance is there for all to see,

Cobblers Dream continues to progressive with racing Up 8lb for his success in the Lanzarote Handicap Hurdle the patiently ridden 6-year-old made smooth headway 2 out and looked like he was coming to win the Martin Pipe when challenging at the last. He eventually finished a 1 ½ length 2^nd of 23 to another improver in Banbridge. Up another 4lb but the improvement may not have ended just yet.

Speech Bubble missed a race at Newbury (ante post favourite) on Saturday due to good ground. The 7-year-old finished a 2 ¼ length 2nd of 6 to Love Envoi in a Grade 2 mares’ novices’ hurdle at Sandown last time. The winner has since gone onto boast that form when winning the Dawn Run Mares’ Novices Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival.  The mare is another who will be suited by the forecast pace on her handicap debut.

Nicky Henderson has saddled the winner of this race three times since 2013 and he saddles four today. The two most likely to give him a fourth win are Balco Coastal & Fils Doudairies.

Balco Coastal a progressive novice hurdler looked on a lenient mark for his handicap hurdle in the Imperial Cup at Sandown. However, the 6-year-old resented the soft ground that. By no means guaranteed to stay 2m 4f but any drying ground is major positive to his chance.

Fils D’oudairies was backed to make a winning start for Nicky Henderson. Formerly with Joseph O’Brien and back over the smaller obstacles he travelled through the race like a nicely treated horse but was no match for a well-treated winner when a 4 ½ length 2^nd of 11 to Unexpected Party at Ascot last time. Like his stablemate is high on the shortlist here.

Verdict: I’m a big fan of Cobblers Dream but I wonder if he had a hard race at Cheltenham. I find it hard to split the Henderson pair of Balco Coastal and Fils D’oudairies. Speech Bubble has classy novice hurdle from but a big field handicap does ask a different question of her.

2:20 – Betway Top Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1) (GBB Race) (Class 1) – 2m ½ f

Jonbon a smart novice hurdler was no match for stablemate Constitution Hill in last months Supreme Novices Hurdle. Nothing of the winner’s calibre here and is clearly the one to beat.

First Street, a stablemate of Jonbon, continue his improvement when a 1¼ length 2nd of 26 to State Man in County Hurdle last time. Doesn’t have much to find on ratings with Jonbon and looks worth a try in Graded company. Decent chance if he didn’t have to hard a race at Cheltenham.

Willie Mullins brings over El Fabiolo who created a good impression when running out a 13-length winner of a Tramore maiden hurdle 97-days ago. It was heavy ground when he won last time so his effectiveness on a sounder surface is untested. Capable of a lot better though.

2:55 – (Mildmay) Betway Mildmay Novices’ Chase (Grade 1) (GBB Race) (Class 1) – 3m 1f

Just the four runners for this Grade 1 but they do include Bravemansgame, who was withdrawn for his intended race (Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase) at the Cheltenham Festival due to the rain softened ground. An excellent jumper of a fence, he’s well suited to a flat track and the better the ground the stronger his claims.

L’Homme Presse made it 5-5 over fences when winning last month’s Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase. We haven’t seen the best of the 7-year-old yet and given the quality of his jumping he could well test Bravemansgame’s stamina for 3m 1f.

Ahoy Senor won the Grade 1 Hurdle here 12 months ago finished 3 ½ lengths behind L’Homme Presse last time. He did well to get as close as he did to the winner that day given his jumping wasn’t as good as the winners. This galloping track will suit and he’s another who hasn’t reached his full potential yet. Likely to get an easy here and won’t be far away if he jumps better than at Cheltenham.

3:30 – Marsh Chase (Registered As The Melling Chase) (Grade 1) – 2m 4f

Fakir D’oudairies handled heavy ground when winning the Grade 1 Ascot Chase last time. Last season’s easy winner missed the Ryanair Chase to come here. No problem with drying ground and he’s the one beat again.

Mister Fisher was a well beaten fourth in the Ascot Chase. However, he didn’t like the heavy ground. I have still to be convinced that he’s a Grade 1 chaser but the better ground is in his favour.

Funambule Sivola had Sceau Royal 2 lengths behind in second when winning the Grade 2 Game Spirit at Newbury. The winner won’t get an uncontested lead like he did last time. I wouldn’t be surprised if the runner-up reversed placings here on his first start beyond 2m 1f. Hitman was a further 2 ¼ length back in third. The 6-year-ol shapes like the return up 2m 4f can bring out some more progress.

4:05 – (Grand National) Randox Topham Handicap Chase (Grade 3) – 2m 5f

The race of the day for me with a maximum field of 30 set to meet the starter. I have had ten on my shortlist since the start of the week.

Mac Tottie has been backed over the past couple of days so the big prices available early in the week are long gone. Won the Grand Sefton over C&D in November before falling at the Chair in the Becher Chase the following month. Can race off the same mark as when winning the Grand Sefton.  Trainer Peter Bowen won this three times with Always Waining between 2010 & 2012.

The second, third and fourth in last year’s race reoppose. Runner-up Pink Eyed Pedro really took the National fences 12 months ago and is 2lb lower this time round. Recent form isn’t great but he didn’t come last year’s race in much form either.

Senior Citizen was a 12 ½ length third last year and finished a length behind Mac Tottie in the Grand Sefton earlier in the season. Now 4lb worse off with that one. Put in an encouraging prep for this when 3^rd of 10 at Newbury last month. Capable of another bold show here with drying ground a positive.

Snugsborough Hall fourth 12 months ago has been running over hurdles this season without success but this has likely been the plan and better expected today.

Five Star Getaway was a disappointing 6/1 joint favourite at Kempton last time. He normally travels well and is a solid enough jumper of a fence. Two pound out of the handicap but can’t be totally ruled out given he’s trained by Christian Williams.

Palmers Hill looked a progressive handicap chaser when winning at Wetherby & Ascot at the end of 2021. Pulled up back at Ascot last time but he’s back from a 76-day break. Just the four starts over fences so could be capable of better. The good to soft ground suits and If he takes to the fences can go well.

Killer Clown is 8lb higher than when winning at Kempton last time. He’s going the right way and the likely strong pace will suit. One for the shortlist for sure. I just wonder whether he’s better going right-handed?

Mister Coffey was well fancied when finishing a 2 ½ length 2^nd of 20 in the Kim Muir Handicap Chase at Cheltenham last time. Has the size to handle the fences and given he’s only had four starts over fences maybe capable of more improvement. Must be high on the shortlist.

Foxy Jacks was a 1 ¼ length 2^nd of 17 in a valuable 2m 5 ½ f handicap chase at the Dublin Racing Festival two starts back. Ran better than his 14^th of 27 in the Ultima at Cheltenham suggests. He was still in contention when making a race ending mistake three out that day. Has a decent weight and has each-way claims.

Batcio is another with an each-way chance if he takes to the fences. Has been running consistently well without looking well handicapped.  Goodish ground suits, as will the forecast strong pace and Adam Wedge is an interesting jockey booking for the 10-year-old.

Verdict: In a race where you can have three or four against the field. My three are C&D winner Mac Tottie, Senior Citizen and Palmers Hill.

4:40 – Cavani Menswear Sefton Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1) – 3m ½ f

This doesn’t look the highest quality Grade 1 and the fact that 14 are set to run suggests that is the case.

Banbridge maintained his improvement over hurdles when winning the Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle last time. It was stamina that won him the day at Cheltenham and he should stay 3m.

Gelino Bello bounced back to winning ways when beating Peking Rose by 9 lengths at Newbury last month. Looks capable of better returned to 3m and must be respected.

Crystal Glory was the only one to give Hillcrest a race at Haydock last time. Respected on that form and today’s ground looks better for the 6-year-old than the heavy he ran on at Haydock.

Skytastic a winner of both his bumper starts and is 2-2 over hurdles. The 6-year-old handled the soft ground well enough when winning an Ascot novice last time. Trainer Sam Thomas told the Racing Post after his Ascot win “That’s not his ground by any stretch of the imagination and he learned a lot”. He’s progressive, should stay 3m and looks worth his place in Grade 1 company.

5:15 – Park Palace Ponies Handicap Hurdle (Conditional Jockeys’ And Amateur Riders’ Race) (Class 2) – 2m ½ f

A tricky seventeen runner puzzle concludes day two of the Aintree Grand National Festival.

Wizz Kid, trained by the inform Dr Richard Newland bids for the hat trick after wins at Catterick and Ludlow. Very useful on the flat when trained in Germany. Ground likely to suit and he’s open to further improvement. Could be on a lenient mark for his handicap debut and was well backed yesterday

Severance went close at Cheltenham two starts back and did best of those who raced up with the pace when a 5 ½ length 4th of 11 to Cormier in Morebattle Hurdle last time. No problem with drying ground and he remains on a winnable mark.

Richmond Lake was a 3-length 2^nd of 7 to Jonbon at Haydock two starts back. Beaten when falling at the last in a Grade 2 at Kelso last time. Possibly didn’t stay the 2m 2f that day and the return to an extended two mile looks a good move.

Homme Public put in a personal best when winning at Newcastle last month. He seemed suited by the return to better ground last time. Up 8lb for that success and a couple of notches in class demands more from the 5-year-old but he does get the first time cheekpieces which could bring out further progress from him.

Albert’s Back is another to get the first time cheekpieces today.  The 8-year-old seems to be slowly returning to form. He’s 4lb below his last winning mark and put in a clear seasonal best when a head 2^nd of 6 at Wetherby last month. Not out of this if the headgear has the desired effect.

Irish raider Mandarin Monarch took advantage of a good mark when winning a Navan handicap hurdle last month. That was the 9-year-old’s first start for 11 months so it’s not out of the question that he could do better with that run under his belt and can’t be totally dismissed.

Verdict: The well handicapped Wizz Kid looks a big contender for an inform yard. Severance has had a wind-op since his last run and is on a competitive mark. Last time out winner Homme Public is interesting in the first time cheekpieces. Albert’s Back is tempting at big odds.

Betting Advice:

Aintree

1:45 – 1pt win – Balco Coastal – 11/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes and 1pt win – Fils D’oudairies – 9/1 @ Bet365

2:55 – 1pt win – Ahoy Senor – 6/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook

4:05 – 1pt win – Mac Tottie – 8/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes, 1pt win – Senior Citizen – 12/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes and 1pt win Palmers Hill – 20/1 @ Bet365

5:15 – 1pt win – Severance – 15/2 @ Bet365 and 1pt win – Homme Public – 8/1 @ Bet365 & Coral

Cheers

John

Morning all.

The Aintree Grand National begins today. Besides the ‘big one’ there’s plenty more high-quality action over the three days to enjoy.

Today see’s four Grade 1 races. The Manifesto Novices’ Steeple Chase (1.45), Anniversary 4-Y-O Juvenile Hurdle (2.20), Betway Bowl Chase (2.55) and Betway Aintree Hurdle (3.30). There’s also a first sight of the National fences in the Randox Foxhunters’ Open Hunters’ Chase (4:05)

There are another four Grade 1 races on Friday’s seven race card. The Betway Top Novices’ Hurdle (2.20), Betway Mildmay Novices’ Chase (2.55), Marsh Chase (3.30) and the Cavani Menswear Sefton Novices’ Hurdle (4.40).  The big betting race of the day is the Grade 3 Topham Handicap Chase (4:05) over the National fences.

Besides the Grand National itself the Saturday card also includes another three Grade 1 contests. The Betway Mersey Novices’ Hurdle (2.25), Maghull Novices’ Chase (3.00) and JRL Group Liverpool Hurdle (3.35).

Looking at the entries. I have to say the Grade 1 races don’t seem to have the strongest look to them and we could see some smallish fields. That said the field sizes for the handicap races should hold up.

Inside today’s preview I have had a look at the five races being covered live by ITV this afternoon although my main selections run in the handicap chase (4:40).

Aintree Grand National Festival – Day 1

It looks a decent enough days action on Merseyside with the likes of Pied Piper, Epatante, Zanahiyr and Cheltenham Festival winner Brazil all set to run this afternoon.

1:45 – SS Super Alloys Manifesto Novices’ Chase (Grade 1) (GBB Race) (Class 1) – 2m 4f

Pic D’Orhy should be favourite on ratings. However, the form of the Paul Nicholls and the prospect of softening round mean he’s bigger in the betting than expected.

The bookies early bird favourite is the Colin Tizzard trained War Lord. The 7-year-old has some smart from over fences and was a good 10 ¾ length 4th of 11 to Edwardstone in Arkle Chase last time. First run beyond two miles over the larger obstacles but stayed the trip over hurdles.

Erne River made it 2-2 since going chasing when winning a Wetherby novice chase. He looked a smart chasing prospect that day and although this is a step up in class has the potential to do better.

Millers Bank finished 3^rd of 11 in last season’s Grade 1 Aintree Hurdle.  After two unseats he ran Pic D’Orhy to a length in the Grade 2 Pendil Novices Chase at Kempton. Now 5lb worse off with that one but not totally dismissed.

2:20 – Jewson Anniversary 4-y-o Juvenile Hurdle (Grade 1) – 2m 1f

Brazil Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival last time. He showed a good attitude to prevail that day and deserves his place in Grade 1 company.

Pied Piper was a 2 ¾ length 3rd of 12 to Vauban in Triumph Hurdle at the Festival. He’s only had three starts over hurdles and could be capable better. The pick on ratings but the form of the Gordon Elliott is a slight concern.

Petit Tonnerre looked an exciting prospect when making a winning debut for Jonjo O’Neill. He missed the Fred Winter where he was due to carry top-weight. Long term he has the physique to be the best of these but could still go close for a yard among the winners.

Fautinette won all three starts when trained in France. First run for Venetia Williams and this is big ask for the filly but interesting that connection have pitched her in her. All form in France on soft or worse.

2:55 – Betway Bowl Chase (Grade 1) – 3m 1f

Nine go to post for today’s feature race but it looks an interesting one the nonetheless with plenty in with a chance. Indeed, there’s just 3lb separating the top six horses on Timeform ratings.

Protektorat’s 17 ½ length 3^rd of 11 to A Plus Tard in the Gold Cup is arguably the best piece of form on offer and he’s 2-2 here, including over C&D in December. Only 20-days since the Gold Cup but provided he didn’t have to hard a race there looks the one to beat.

Clan Des Obeaux won this year before going onto win a Grade 1 Punchestown. Not at his best on either start this season, including when runner-up in the King George VI at Kempton. He wore first time cheekpieces when successful 12 months ago and the first-time blinkers.

Conflated produced a career best when given a good ride by Davy Russell to win the Irish Gold Cup at Leopardstown two starts back. Ridden off the pace had made headway to challenge for second when coming down at the second last in the Ryanair Chase. He wouldn’t have beaten Allaho even if he hadn’t have come down that day but would likely have finished runner-up.

Eldorado Allen finished third in the Ryanair last time. Prior to that he had a below form Clan Des Obeaux 12 lengths behind when winning the Denman Chase at Newbury. The step back up in trip should suit the 8-year-old and his good jumping gives him a chance here.

Kemboy won tis two years ago.  A ¾ length third in the Grade 1 Savills Chase at Leopardstown over Christmas but was well beaten by Conflated in the Irish Gold Cup last time.

3:30 – Betway Aintree Hurdle (Grade 1) – 2m 4f

Epatante had Zanahiyr a length behind in third when runner-up to Honeysuckle in the Champion Hurdle last month. Both are having their first start over 2m 4f today and neither are guaranteed to stay today’s longer distance. The latter shaped like he would stay but if Epatante is as effective over 2m 4f I think she can confirm Cheltenham form with Zanahiyr

Brewin’upastorm won over C&D in the autumn so no stamina issues for the 9-year-old. He has a bit to fins on official rating ratings with the front pair but does race in the first time cheekpieces today and if the headgear has the desired effect won’t be far away.

4:05 – (Grand National) Randox Foxhunters’ Open Hunters’ Chase (Class 2) – 2m 5f

The first sight of the National fences at the meeting.

Jett took to the big fences when 8^th in last year’s Grand National and after a bold jumping display out in front, was still leading three out before his stamina ran out. Obvious claims and missed Cheltenham for this.

Porlock Bay won the Cheltenham Foxhunters at last year’s festival. Hasn’t been at that level of form on two starts this year. Missed Cheltenham this year to come here and if he takes to the fences should make a bold bid.

Cousin Pascal took to the fences 12 months ago when beating Latenightpass by 2 ½ lengths in last year’s race. He never got into a rhythm when pulled up at Cheltenham last month but if you ignore that run, he shouldn’t be far away given his C&D form. Latenightpass comes into the race in better form than his old rival and look set for another a bold bid.

4:40 – Close Brothers Red Rum Handicap Chase (Grade 3) (GBB Race) (Class 1) – 2m

With seventeen set to go to post for the race it’s the most competitive race of today’s seven-race card. It’s just a shame that it’s not been shown on ITV.

King D’argent looked on to bare in mind for a valuable 2m handicap chase when a neck 2^nd of 6 at Doncaster last month. Just 1lb higher here and looks primed for a big performance.

Frero Banbou has the ability to win but can be a tricky ride, as he showed when running on 6-length 3^rd of 16, in the Grand Annual Handicap Chase, after getting well behind early on in the race.

Before Midnight’s prominent style of racing should be suited by the track. The 9-year-old put in a career best effort on RPR’s when a length 2^nd of 7 to Funambule Sivola at Doncaster last time.  Races off the same mark here and should be in the mix provided the going isn’t too soft.

The Evan Williams yard have hit winning form in the past week which brings The Last Day into the mix. The lightly raced 10-year-old, a previous C&D winner, had looked set to defy 353-day absence when taking a heavy fall at the last at Haydock. He was in the lead at the last that day and if none the worse for that mishap look set for a big run off just 1lb higher.

5:15 – Goffs UK Nickel Coin Mares’ Standard Open National Hunt Flat Race (Grade 2) (GBB Race) (Class 1) – 2m 1f

Ashroe Diamond looked like further and/or more of a stamina test would have suited when ½-length 4th of 16 to Lily du Berlais in Grade 2 mares race at the Dublin Racing Festival. The forecast strong pace is a positive to her chance and she will be there or thereabouts.

There are plenty among the twenty runners who look open to further improvement they include Irish raiders Law Ella and Naughtinesse. The first named looked a useful prospect when winning at Down Royal on her racecourse debut last month.  Preference though is for Naughtinesse who confirmed her debut promise when beating eight rivals at Fairyhouse on New Year’s Day. She’s bred to be very useful when going jumping but should go well here.

Rachel Blackmore is an eye-catching jockey booking for Lady Excalibur who is having her first start since winning a bumper over C&D in October. She’s yet to race on ground worse than good so her effectiveness on rain softened ground must be taken on trust, feared if handling it.

Betting Advice:

Aintree

2:20 – 1pt win – Petit Tonnerre – 10/1 @ Bet365 & Paddy Power

2:55 – 1pt win – Clan Des Obeaux – 11/2 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook

3:30 – 1pt win – Brewin’upastorm – 13/2 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook

4:40 – 1pt win – King D’argent – 8/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook, 1pt win – The Last Day – 12/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes and 1pt win – Before Midnight – 15/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

Cheers

John