Hi all,
Ebor Day looks set to be mostly sunny but there could be some isolated showers about in the north of England. Good news for good ground horses in Saturday’s Sky Bet Ebor Handicap (3:35).
A maximum field of 22 runners are set to set to go to post for one of Europe’s richest flat handicaps. There’s £300,000 on offer to the winner and £500,000 in guaranteed prize money.
The race has been one by some great stayers. The great Sea Pigeon won the Ebor in 1978 to go along with his Champion Hurdle. Other notable winners include the likes of Further Flight, Sergeant Cecil, and Purple Moon who won the race in 2007 and later that year finished runner-up in the Melbourne Cup. Last year’s winner Sonnyboyliston went onto win the Irish St Leger. The Irish who are bidding for back- to- back Ebor successes have the well backed ante post favourite in Earl Of Tyrone.
There are two Group races on a very competitive looking seven-race card. The Group 3 Strensall Stakes (1:50) and the Group 2 Sky Bet City Of York Stakes (3:00) and three more competitive handicaps.
In today’s preview I have had a look at six of the seven races at York and today’s betting advice can be found at the end of the main piece.
York Ebor Festival – Day 4
Strensall Stakes
Mighty Ulysses and Alflaila were separated by 1 ½ lengths when the pair were first and second respectively in Newmarket Listed race (1m) at the July Festival. Alflaila who has improved with each start this season has since gone onto win a Pontefract Listed race (1m). Although neither horse is guaranteed to appreciates today’s extra furlong. If they go an even gallop, I think Alflaila could be the value play here.
City Of York Stakes
The fillies Sacred and Sandrine head the ante post betting. Sandrine seemed to appreciate the drop back to 7f when winning the Group 2 Lennox Stakes at Goodwood last time. Sacred was 1 ½ lengths back in 5th that day and so surprising that the pair are the 9/2 joint favourites. Granted Sacred may not have been suited by the track but I still prefer the claims of Sandrine. Kinross was a neck back in second in the Lennox. There’s no reason why he can’t be competitive once more and any ease in the ground would enhance the 5-year-old’s claims.
Jumby who gained a breakthrough success in Group company in the Group 2 Hungerford Stakes last Saturday is set to take his chance. It’s a quick turnaround for the 4-year-old but another big run seems likely if he gets a good pace to chase and quick ground. Pogo was 2 ½ lengths back in fifth in the Hungerford and was also well beaten in this race last year.
Al Suhail bids to give Charlie Appleby back-to-back wins in the race. The 5-year-old made all to win a Group 2 over the distance last October. However, he ran poorly on his next start when odds on for a race in Meydan in March. Seems likely to be ridden from the front but will face pressure from Pogo.
Rohaan was length 4th of 14 to Highfield Princess in the Group 1 Prix Maurice de Gheest at Deauville last time. Doing his best work at the end of the 6 ½ f he did best of those coming from off the pace. If he gets a good gallop to chase, he’s a big player.
Ebor Handicap
Earl Of Tyrone 0-8 prior to joining Paddy Twomey has been improved out of all recognition this season winning his last three starts including a Listed race at Limerick last time. The runner-up in that race has gone to win a Group 3 so the form looks solid. He already won at the Ebor Distance so there should be no stamina issues for the 5-year-old who could be a Group horse. He bagged a handy draw in stall 8 and looks a worthy favourite.
Besides the favourite the Irish have a strong hand in the race with likes of Ever Present, Okita Soushi and License all to the fore in the betting. And I haven’t included last year’s fourth Shanroe. He’s a likeable handicapper who proved his wellbeing when beating two rivals at Galway on his belated seasonal reappearance last month.
The best of the home looks to be Get Shirty who followed up his Royal Ascot success with a winner in the Old Newton Cup at Haydock.
Alfred Boucher who was a comfortable winner of the 2m handicap here on Wednesday. He’s clearly well treated under his 4lb penalty, but the quick turnaround is a concern.
Valley Forge won the Melrose on this card 12 months ago and is another contender. Euchen Glen might be a 9-year-old, but he showed he’s no back number when an unlucky length 3rd of 13 at Goodwood last time. He will be ridden from behind so needs a good pace to chase and luck in the run. The step into handicap company and a big field scenario could be ideal for one time Derby hopeful John Leeper.
William Haggas relies on Gaassee and Candleford. The latter who seems to be the choice of Tom Marquand made a winning seasonal return in the Duke Of Edinburgh Handicap at Royal Ascot. Possibly found his next start coming to quick after his exertions at Ascot last time when down the field at Newmarket. He’s very effective on a quick surface but his stamina for 1m 6f must be proven.
Gaassee ended last season with wins at Chester & Newcastle and began this one with successes at Kempton and over C&D in May. He wasn’t disgraced when a 1½ lengths third of 17 to Get Shirty in Old Newton Cup last time. An Irish St Leger entry he’s got untapped potential for the step up to 1m 6f. He’s the one I like best of the Haggas pair but his effectiveness on good to firm is an unknown.
Rest of the York card
2:25 – Sky Bet Melrose Handicap (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) – 1m 6f
Soulcombe improved for the step into handicap company and the fitting of the blinkers when winning at Haydock and Ascot. He produced a career best despite missing the break when a 1 ½ length 4th of 13 to Secret State at Goodwood last time. Needs to get off on level terms and if he does, he won’t be far away. Inverness was head in front of Soulcombe at Goodwood. He’s likely to give his running again but he’s not as certain to be as suited by 1m 6f as Soulcombe.
Andrew Balding who bids for a hat trick of Melrose win saddles Soul Stopper who has improved for the step up to 1m 4f and last time made a winning handicap debut at Chester last time. Up 8lb in a better race but is going the right way.
Charlie Appleby won this in 2017 & 2018, and he has a couple of contenders in Wild Crusade & Al Nafir. The former looks the stable pick with Buick taking the ride. He made it 2-3 since April when beating two rivals at Ascot last time. The runner-up won a Class 2 handicap at Goodwood on his next start, so the form looks solid and Wild Crusade is bred to be suited by the step up to 1m 6f. Stablemate Al Nafir makes his handicap debut and is another who could be suited by the step up to 1m 6f. He holds a St Leger entry so a mark of 92 could be workable. Frankie Dettori takes the ride so he could be in the mix.
4:10 – Sky Bet Constantine Handicap (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) – 6f
A cracking handicap with a maximum field of 20 declared for this dash down the Knavesmire.
Spangled Mac completed a summer four timer and improved further when a ¾-length second of 9 to Adaay In Asia at Ascot last time. He’s up 3lb but the front two pulled clear of the rest that day and the winner was successful here on Thursday. He’s been well suited to quick ground and is high on the shortlist.
Mums Tipple spreadeagled his field when winning the big sales race at this meeting in 2019. He’s found things tougher since, but he returned to winning ways for the season when beating four rivals at Newmarket (6f) last Saturday. Not certain to back it up and is up 6lb but Dettori stays in the saddle, and he remain competitively weighted if he can follow up.
The first three in Goodwood’s Stewards Cup Commanche Falls, Tabdeed and Regional run. Th first named is 6lb higher than at Goodwood, but he’s lightly raced to think he won’t be far away despite a career high mark.
Tabdeed has been raised 5lb. There was just a short head between him and Commanche Falls so is entitled to finish ahead of his old rival especially if the first time cheekpieces have the desired effect.
Regional was 1 ½ length behind in third. He’s up 3lb but didn’t have the best of starts that day. Doing his best work at the finish that day. He unexposed as a sprinter and I wouldn’t be surprised if he did best of the three with a better passage.
Tinto was 2 lengths back in fifth in the Stewards Cup he can race off the same mark here and that brings him into the mix. He’s been in cracking form since switching to his present yard and with stablemate Commanche Falls gives trainer Michael Dods a strong hand in the race.
Silver Samurai looked a well handicap sprinter when bolting up at Haydock three starts back. He was on the wrong side of the track in the Wokingham Handicap so a line can be drawn under that performance. Slowly away and did well to finish a 2 length 7th of 15 to Gale Force Maya over C&D last time. I think he can defy his mark when getting off on level terms.
Aleezdancer returned to winning ways when beating four rivals at Ripon 19-days ago. The drop back to 6f really suited the 3-year-old last time. Up 4lb for that win but had a bit in hand. There should be more to come from him provided the ground isn’t too quick.
5:20 – Sky Bet Finale Handicap (Class 2) – 1m 2 ½ f
Spirit Dancer has returned in good form this season. He was an excellent fourth in the John Smith’s Cup over C&D two starts back and then followed up here last time. He’s 4lb higher today but given his C&D form he’s very much respected.
Special Envoy made it 2-4 when making a winning handicap debut at Windsor last month. Up 6lb in a much better race but he’s 3-year-old whos’ going the right way and looks capable of more progress.
Phantom Flight is another improving 3-year-old. A winner at Redcar and Haydock. He finished an excellent 3 length 3rd of 12 to St Leger hope New London on handicap debut at Newmarket last month. The step up to 1m 2f suited him and would have finished closer to a very useful winner with better passage. More progress should be forthcoming and he’s one to be interest in.
Injazati was progressive last season at 1m 2f completing the hat trick when making all to win a Class 2 handicap at Newbury last September. Probably didn’t stay 1m 4f when well fancied for the Old Rowley Cup at Newmarket in October. Looked set for a big season as 4-year-old but we haven’t seen him since a disappointing effort when 3rd of 11 at Pontefract (soft) back in April. I don’t think the testing ground suited him that day but there was clearly something else was amiss given his long absence. Remains one to be interested in and a mark of 98 should prove manageable.
Betting Advice:
York
2:25 – 1pt win – Wild Crusade – 6/1 @ Bet365 & Coral
3:35 – 1pt win – Rohaan – 7/1 @ Bet365 & Coral
3:35 – 1pt win – Earl Of Tyrone – 6/1 @ Ladbrokes, 1pt win – Gaassee – 8/1 @ Bet365 & Coral and 1pt each way – Shanroe – 25/1 @ Bet365 (paying 6 places 1/5 odds)
4:10 – Spangled Mac – 9/1 @ Bet365 & Ladbrokes, 1pt win – Aleezdancer – 14/1 @ Bet365 & Coral and 1pt win – Silver Samurai – 12/1 @ Bet365 & Coral
5:20 – 1pt win – Injazati – 15/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes.
Cheers
John