Category: Victor Value

Hi all,

Well the Cheltenham Festival is finally here. The months of waiting have come to an end. The “Greatest Show On Earth” well in terms of horse racing anyway, begins at 1:30 when the tapes go up for the start of the Supreme Novices Hurdle.

Just to let you know. There won’t be a Horses To Follow post on Thursday as I will be concentrating on Cheltenham from now until Friday. Normal service in terms of the eyecatchers will return a week on Thursday.

As a point of information, I won’t be looking at every race each day in these daily notebooks because there are some races that really don’t interest me. I will also look at some races in more detail than others. It’s likely this post will be the longest of the next four days due to time constraints as the action gets underway.

Without further ado, lets gets started.

Cheltenham Festival 2019 – Day 1

The meeting looks set to start on good to soft at best and if the forecast rain arrives it could well be soft.  I am going in with plenty of bets today.

1:30 – Sky Bet Supreme Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1) – 2m ½ f

I am more of a handicap than a non-handicap punter, but I do take an interest in races like this at Cheltenham Festival.

A field of 18 have been declared to go to post for this year’s renewal.

Looking at the trends: Nine of the last eleven winners, or 83% of the winners from 23% of the total runners had the following traits:

Top Six in Betting

Winner Last Race

Season Runs: 2 to 5

That leaves a shortlist of Al Dancer, Fakir D’oudairies, Klassical Dream, Elixier De Nutz & Mister Fisher.

I doubt this is a vintage Supreme, but I still expect the winner to come from the above five runners. 

Verdict: Klassical Dream ticks the above trends boxes. The 5-year-old may not be as good as some of his trainer’s previous winner of the race. But he’s unbeaten on both his starts since coming over from France and showed a good battling attitude on the run-in in the Grade 1 novices’ hurdle at Leopardstown last month.  I can see Mister Fisher, a Stablemate of Angel’s Breath, the 5-year-old has won both his last two starts over hurdles, including a Grade 2 at Haydock 52-days ago. He needs to improve on that here, but he’s only had three starts over hurdles so that’s possible. Both his wins have come on flat tracks, so Cheltenham is a bit of an unknown. If he handles the course, he could run into the places.

Klassical Dream -9/2 @ William Hill & Coral

Mister Fisher – 16/1 @ Ladbrokes – each way – (paying 4 places 1/5 odds)

2:10 – Racing Post Arkle Challenge Trophy Novices’ Chase (Grade 1) – 2m

A field of 12 have been declared to go to post for this year’s race. A bit like the previous race. Not my favourite type of contest. Once again narrowing the race down to a few key trends.

Ten of the last eleven winners of the Arkle Novices’ Chase or 91% of the winners from 38% of the total runners had the following traits:

Horses Age: 6yo to 7yo

Chase Runs: 1 to 4

Days Since Last Run: 16 to 75

Last Time Out Placing: First or Second

Using the above trends, the horses I would be concentrating on are Glen Forza, Duc Des Genievres, Paloma Blue, Kalashnikov & Clondaw Castle.

Verdict: Of the trend’s horses Paloma Blue is a classy horse but his jumping since going chasing has been slightly disappointing. At least he did win a decent looking beginners’ chase at Leopardstown over Christmas. Henry De Bromhead is a trainer capable of ironing out the 7-year-old’s jumping issues. If his jumping holds up, he can go well. Gordon Elliott has just the one representative Hardline. The 7-year-old is 3 wins from 5 starts since going over fences. The drop back to anticipated strongly run 2m will suit, as will rain softened ground and he need respecting. Gordon Elliott has a good record when he has just the one runner in a non-handicap race at the Festival – 16 winners from 53 runners 30% +115.98 27 placed 51%.

Hardline – 5/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

2:50 – Ultima Handicap Chase (Grade 3) – 3m 1f

This is more like it the first of today’s two handicaps. A maximum field of 24 are set to go to post for the race.

There are four recent eyecatchers running in this year’s renewal. Before I look at those runners. Let’s focus on some of the key race trends:

Not a bad race for trends fans. Ten of the last eleven winners or 91% of the winners from 28% of the total runners of the Ultima had the following traits:

Days Since Last Run: 16 to 45

Handicap Chase Wins: 0 to 1

Runs At The Track: 1+

Distance Move: Up from last race.

Backing all such qualifiers would have seen a +74 profit to SP and +95.28 to Betfair SP. For each way punters the profit would have been +102.50.

There are just two qualifiers using the above trends Minella Rocco and Activial.

It’s not often that a 24-runner handicap is reduced to just a shortlist of two. A note of caution with these trends could be the way to go. Although I do like both runners.

The four eyecatchers running are Lake View Lad, Noble Endeavor, Flying Angel & Willie Boy. The latter two named have doubts on the stamina front but there is no doubting that Flying Angel is a well handicapped horse.

Noble Endeavor was third in this race last year two years ago off 4lb higher. The 10-year-old has only had two starts since but ran with a bit of promise in the Becher Chase on his sole start this season back in December. If he was in the form of two years ago, he would be major contender. This could be a good prep for the Grand National!

Lake View Lad is another probably looking for a tilt at the Grand National. Up 8lb since winning the Rowland Meyrick at Wetherby on Boxing Day. The 9-year-old is going the right way and the more rain the better but top-weight of 11-12 will be some performance.

Verdict: Minella Rocco is to well-handicapped to ignore but further rain probably wouldn’t be to his liking.  Activial scores highly on the trends but like Flying Angel there is a slight doubt about his stamina for 3m 1f. I am going to take a chance on his stamina as he looks overpriced. I am also going each way on Noble Endeavor.

Noble Endeavor – 14/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes – each way – (paying 5 places 1/5 odds)

Activial – 50/1 @ William Hill – each way – (paying 5 places 1/5 odds)

3:30 – Unibet Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophy (Grade 1) – 2m 1f

The race needs no introduction as it’s the feature race of Day 1 of the Festival. Buveur D’Air trained by Nicky Henderson bids to win the race for the third successive year.

Let’s look at the key trends. Ten of the last 11 winners of the Champion Hurdle or 91% of the total runners from 29 % of the total runners had the following traits:

Odds SP: 12/1 & under

Best in Three Runs: 1^st

Highest Class Run: Grade 1

Runs in Season: 2 to 4

Distance Beaten Last Race: Won or within 4 lengths

Using the above trends, the three qualifiers are Apple’s Jade, Buveur D’air & Laurina.

Verdict: Giving 7lb to Apple’s Jade is going to be a tough ask for double Champion Hurdle winner Buveur D’Air. Laurina’s form isn’t as good as the other two but she could be capable of a lot better. At the prices I am happy to go with Buveur D’Air to make it the three on the bounce especially as the ground looks perfect.

Buveur D’Air  -11/4 @ Coral & William Hill

4:10 – OLBG Mares’ Hurdle (Registered As The David Nicholson Mares’ Hurdle) (Grade 1) – 2m 4f

A field of fifteen mares are declared to go to post. A third of the runners are trained by Willie Mullins who could very easily have the first three home. He also has the likely odds on favourite in Benie Des Dieux who’s the choice of Ruby Walsh.

It’s not a race I intend to look at from a trend’s perspective.

Of the rest Roksana trained by Dan Skelton hold some interest. The lightly raced seven-year-old ran with promise when 3^rd to Buveur D’air at Sandown on her last start. She was staying on at the end of the 2m and will be suited by today’s longer trip.

Verdict: I think this race will most likely go to Willie Mullins and arguably this is Ruby Walsh’s best chance on the day with Benie Des Dieux. Roksana could repay each-way support. But its not a race I have strong opinions on.

4:50 – Close Brothers Novices’ Handicap Chase (Listed Race) (Class 1) – 2m 4f

A maximum field of 20 are set to go to post for this novices’ handicap chase.

There is one recent eyecatcher entered. Before looking at that one, let’s focus on some of the key race trends:

Now the trends managed to find last years winner Mister Whitaker. Let’s hope they can do so again. The race is a relatively new one to the festival, as it was only first run in 2005.

Ten of the last eleven runners of the race or 91% of the winners from 26% of the total runners shared the following traits:

Odds SP: 16/1 & under

Official Rating: 135 to 142

Highest Class Win: Grade 3 or less

Days Since Last Run: 16 to 60

Using the above trends to find a manageable shortlist for further form study. We are left with 8 qualifiers: Riders Onthe Storm, Walt, Ben Dundee, Shady Operator, Roaring Bull, Lough Derg Spirit, Good Man Pat & Solomn Grundy. The last of those runners is one of our recent eyecatchers.

Verdict: There looks to be plenty of early pace in this race with a few who like to get on with it from the front. The pace of the race should suit Solomn Grundy but he’s dropping back in trip which may not be an advantage. He’s capable of winning a handicap like this if the distance move isn’t an inconvenience. Riders onthe Storm looks to have a favourites chance. The 7-year-old has only had three starts over fences but travelled like a high class when winning a Punchestown novice chase 30-days ago. He could be a well handicapped horse off a mark of 139 for trainer Tom Taaffe who won this race in 2008. A must for the shortlist. Good Man Pat, trained by Alan King, ticks the trends boxes and was a good third to Bags Groove in a Grade 2 at Kempton 17-days ago. If this race doesn’t come to quick, he should go well and he’s effective on rain softened ground.

Riders onthe Storm – 8/1 @ William Hill & Paddy Power

Solomn Grundy – 25/1 @ William Hill – each way – (paying 5 places 1/5 odds)

5:30 – National Hunt Challenge Cup Amateur Riders’ Novices’ Chase (Grade 2) – 3m 7 ½ f

A race for amateur riders concludes Day 1 of the festival with a field of 18 set to go to post for the longest race of the four days.

We have a recent eyecatcher in Whisperinthebreeze, trained by Jessica Harrington, declared to run.

Looking at the key trends for the race. Ten of the last eleven winners of the race or 91% of winners from 34% of the total runners shared the following three traits:

Odds SP: 20/1 & under

Runs in Season: 4+

Maximum Distance Won: 2m 4f to 3m 2f

Using the above one gives us a trends shortlist of five: Le Breuil, Jerrysback, Atlanta Ablaze, Gun Digger and Whisperinthebreeze.

Now I am a bit cautious with the trends for this race. Not included are the two market leaders Ok Corral & Ballyward, who both fail the runs in the season trend. However, the list does include our eyecatcher.

Verdict:  You are taking a chance if you’re playing here that your selection will stay this marathon trip.  You can never rule out a Gordon Elliott runner as he’s won this race three times since 2011. He saddles Gun Digger who is also qualifier from the Gordon Elliott micro angle I mentioned earlier. Le Breuil, trained by Ben Pauling, should go well and has the added assistance of Jamie Codd in the saddle. Jerrysback’s form is a good any in the field but his jumping hasn’t always been the best. I’m reluctant to reject Whisperinthebreeze who should be well suited by this distance but the soft ground tempers enthusiasm. Indeed, the trainer has said the better the ground the better he is. 

Gun Digger – 20/1 @ Paddy Power – each way (paying 4 places 1/5 odds)

Le Breuil – 14/1 – Gen – each way

Always check with an odds comparison service like Oddschecker to get the best prices available

All selections win only unless indicated as each way.

Good luck with your bets.

Cheers

John

Hi all,

A couple of good winners on Saturday to add to Friday’s win. Can we continue this weekend’s profitable run today?

The big race action is over the Irish Sea at Naas with the big race being the Leinster National over 3m. I am looking at a couple of the handicaps at Naas, including the Leinster National. We also have an eyecatcher running there today.

Sunday 9^th March

Naas

4:20 – An interesting 2m 3f handicap hurdle which has attracted a big field of 19 runners. The going at the time of writing on Saturday evening is good to yielding but more rain is forecast so if the rain arrives the going will ease further.

The two that interest me at the prices are: Mont Pelier and Jimmy Breekie. The former was first past the post on his seasonal reappearance at Wexford but subsequently lost the race due to the jockey not being qualified to ride in the race. The 6-year-old ran with glimmers of promise on his next two starts in maiden hurdles. However, he left that form well behind when 2^nd of 16 on his handicap debut 8-days ago and should be bang there if in the same form from 3lb higher.

Jimmy Breekie hasn’t won since landing a Perth novice hurdle in the summer of 2017. However, the form of his last two starts in slightly better races than this give him a big chance here. The 9-year-old was a 2 & ½ lengths third of 13 at Navan in January. Before matching that level of form when a 2 ¼ length third over 3m at Leopardstown 35-days ago. He’s been nudged up 2lb for that effort, but he remains on a competitive mark and has place claims.

Mont Pelier – 15/2 @ Ladbrokes & Coral

Jimmy Breekie – 14/1  – Gen – (paying 4 places ¼ odds) – each way

4:50 – The Leinster National and a field of 15 are set to go to post for this year’s renewal. The going on the chase course is yielding so if the forecast rain arrives it should ease further. It looks a highly quality renewal of the race.

De Name Escapes Me is the overnight favourite. The 9-year-old a winner of a valuable 2m 4f handicap chase at Navan two starts back before running below market expectations in the Paddy Power Handicap Chase at Leopardstown. He’s 13lb higher than when winning at Navan but he’s more than capable of winning this for an inform trainer. A solid favourite.

Wishmoor, trained by Joseph O’Brien put in an improved performance to finish runner-up to Dounikos in the Grand National Trial at Punchestown 28-days ago. Drops back from an extended 3m 4 ½ f here but still needs respecting.  Dounikos shouldn’t be far away again and can go well.

If the ground does soften sufficiently, I can see Monbeg Notorious going really well. The 8-year-old was a very decent novice chaser last season including an easy win in the Thyestes Chase. He shaped in the Grand National Trial than he had done on his belated seasonal reappearance in this year’s Thyestes. Still he finished a well beaten 10th of 16 but given the 8-year-olds best form has come on soft or heavy the ground, the son of Milan just hasn’t had his optimum underfoot conditions.

The key to his chance, is rain turning the ground soft or worse. I think he will bounce back sometime maybe today will be that day.

Of the rest, Youcantcallherthat also finished well beaten in the Grand National Trial but she’s another capable of much better showing on soft or worse ground. Killer Miller, a winner of a beginners chase here in November 2015. The 10-year-old was off the track for 729-days after falling in the Paddy Power in December 2016. He returned to action over hurdles at Limerick 74-days ago. It was a performance with some promise. Hard to say how much ability he retains but if he’s on a good mark and could outrun his odds.

Another who out run big odds is The Conditional. The 7-year-old is a winning pointer, arguably put his best effort over fences when 5^th of 17 in a beginners’ chase at Gowran Park 22 days ago. A winner over 2m 7f over hurdles, on heavy ground, 12 months ago. He’s another who will appreciate soft ground on his handicap chase debut. The step up 3m could also eke out the improvement he would need to be competitive here.

Verdict: De Name Escapes Me is a solid favourite. Monbeg Notorious will bounce back sometime and if he gets soft ground it could be today.  The Conditional and Youcantcallherthat are both capable of reach the places if the rain arrives.

Monbeg Notorious – 12/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes (both paying 4 places 1/5 odds) – each way

The Conditional – 12/1 @ William Hill (paying 6 places 1/5 odds) – each way

Eyecatcher Running

3:45 – Kaiser Black – 15/8 @ William Hill – Looks the one to beat in this novice chase if he reproduces his 1 ¼ length second to La Baque Au Roi at Leopardstown in the 2m 5f Grade 1 novices’ chase 35-days ago. Granted the 8-year-old drops back a furlong here and will probably be one for 3m + but I think connections will be disappointed if he can’t win this. That said I wouldn’t want to take shorter than 15/8 about his chance.

Always check with an odds comparison service like Oddschecker to get the best prices available

All selections win only unless indicated as each way.

Good luck with your bets.

Cheers

John

Hi all,

A nice winner for the eyecatchers at Sandown on Friday.  We have seven tracker horses running on Saturday and a couple of other selections.

Saturday 9th March

Sandown

2:25 – Matchbook Imperial Cup Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) – 2m

As I said yesterday, we have two recent eyecatchers running in the race: Solomon Grey and Malaya. I still think the former could be better on a sound surface, but I can’t leave out of the portfolio. No issue with soft going for Malaya and she can go close. I am also tempted by the David Pipe trained Extra Mag in the first time cheekpieces.

Solomon Grey – 8/1 @ William Hill & Ladbrokes

Malaya – 6/1 – Gen

Extra Mag – 8/1 @ William Hill

3:35 – A 3m class 3 handicap chase.

Ami Debois, is just 4lb higher than when beaten a neck over C&D 35-days ago. The form of that race is solid, and the 9-year-old takes a slight drop in class here. Deserves to win a race like this.

Bob Mahler will appreciate the softer ground and the 7-year-old remains unexposed over fences.

Commodore, trained by Venetia Williams, jumped really well when winning at Warwick on his seasonal reappearance. The 7-year-old is now 2 wins from 3 runs over fences. First start for 68-days but as he showed at Warwick he goes well off a lay off. Up slightly in class and up 13lb in the weights Hugh Nugent takes off a valuable 7lb and the gelding can go close if in the same form as last time.

Ami Debois – 9/2 @ William Hill & Ladbrokes

Commodore – 9/2 @ Ladbrokes & Coral

Ayr

3:20 – Saint Leo, a five-time winner when trained in France, on soft/heavy ground. Made no show on his first start for Sandy Thomson at Carlisle back in November on good ground. The 6-year-old ran much better when 4^th of 7 at Wetherby 72-days ago. Gets soft ground and has been dropped 2lb since Wetherby. Looks on competitive mark and can go well.  

Saint Leo – 5/1 @ Paddy Power or 9/2 @ Bet365

Recent Eyecatchers Running On Saturday

4:10 – Enola Gay, another Venetia Williams trained runner. The eyecatcher had been consistent on his first three starts. Not as good at Cheltenham 42-days ago but dropping back slightly in grade and with the added cheekpieces, he can go well.

Enola Gay – 5/2 @ William Hill

4:30 – Better Getalong, found the step up in class too much at Ascot 49-days ago. The 7-year-old is better judged on his runner-up to Ballymoy on heavy at Haydock two starts back. A reproduction of that run should see the Nicky Richards trained runner go close.

Better Getalong – 5/1 @ William Hill or 9/2 @ Bet365 & Paddy Power

Hereford

4:35 – Baby King, has dropped 3lb since his close-up at Warwick two starts back. The 10-year-old has since disappointed at Wetherby 18-days ago. Well-handicapped if he can bounce back and the softer the ground the better for him.

Baby King – 8/1 @ Bet365 & Betway – each way

Gowran Park

3:40 – A 2m 2f handicap chase. Which looks to be run on soft ground. Two recent eyecatchers take their place in the 11 strong field.  

Avenir D’Une Vie, trained by Henry De Bromhead, shaped with promise on his first start for 12 months at Fairyhouse in January. The 9-year-old finished last of four in Grade 3 at Naas 13-days ago. Gets his favoured soft ground for the first time this season and has each way claims.

R’evelyn Pleasure, caught the eye when 4^th of 14 in a similar race at Leopardstown 35-days ago. The 7-year-old is improving with each start since going chasing this season. Different ground to what he’s faced on his last two starts but he was effective on rain softened ground when running over hurdles and the ground should defeat him. The slight step up distance will be in his favour and I expect him to give his running here.

Avenir D’Une Vie – 20/1 @ Paddy Power – each way or 14/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes – each way

R’evelyn Pleasure – 13/2 – Gen

Always check with an odds comparison service like Oddschecker to get the best prices available

All selections win only unless indicated as each way.

Any Sunday selections will be with you tomorrow morning.

Good luck with your bets.

Cheers

John

Hi all,

Well finally after weeks of dry weather the rain has started to arrive, and the going is turning soft. Just a few days before Cheltenham as well.

Sadly, there was notebook last week due to my recent illness. However, the antibiotics seem to have done the trick and I am getting back to full health.

I had a question from a subscriber asking me about horses in the tracker and should you keep them in after a win. On balance I tend to remove a winner from the tracker. Although, there are odd occasions when I will keep them. Normally, this occurs when I think a horse is improving and can win again or there is a potential big race that they will be targeted at.

So, my main rules are:

1. Remove a winner, unless the there are mitigating circumstances as I have mentioned above.
2. Remove after three runs, unless the horse in question has been an eyecatcher again. It does sometimes happen.

Well the start of the Cheltenham Festival is now just four days away. But we still have some decent racing this weekend, at Sandown in particular.

As ever before looking at the weekend’s big race action. Let’s look at this week’s five horses to follow.

This Weeks Horses to Follow

We are coming to that point in the jumps season when National Hunt notebook horses start to drop off unless they are going to the spring festivals, after Cheltenham, or a big race. This first of the week’s six tracker horses is actually from the previous week’s racing.

Thursday 21^st March

Wolverhampton

Lancelot Du Lac, trained by Dean Ivory, isn’t as good as he used to be, but he shaped with promise when 4^th of 8 at Wolverhampton. The 9-year-old found it all happening to quickly over 5f but was finishing off his race well enough to get within 1 ¾ lengths of the winner. This was just 2^nd run since returning from a 140-day break.

He’s now 1lb below his last winning mark on the all-weather and even better handicapped on turf. On the evidence of this performance he’s capable of winning again when returned to 6f.

Friday

Newbury 1^st March

Djin Conti, trained by Henry Whittington. The 6-year-old a winner over hurdles at Wincanton last May was making his debut over fences. Weak in the market before the race he outran market expectations when finishing 4^th behind the improving Orchardstown Cross in the novices’ handicap chase.

The cheekpieces he wore on his last two runs were removed here.  He could never really get into contention but was staying on well enough at the finish and shaping like he needs 3m over fences. Given his lack of experience over the larger obstacles this was a nice start to his chase career and I think he can win race like this before the season is out.

Saturday 2nd March

Newbury

Milansbar, trained by Neil King, put up his best effort of the season so far when finishing a nine length 4th of 11 in the veterans’ chase. He was just plugging on at the end of the race, but the 12-year-old would have preferred much softer ground than he got here.

All his top five Racing Post Ratings (RPR’S) have come on soft or heavy. Granted, he’s just a one paced staying chaser whose best days are behind him but he’s dropped down to an appealing handicap mark when he gets his ground.

Gala Ball, trained by Philip Hobbs, was returning from a 707-day layoff. The last time the 9-year-old had been seen on the racecourse he had finished runner-up to Warrior’s Tale over C&D. In the circumstance his runner-up effort in the Greatwood Gold Cup was an excellent effort. Racing off the same mark as he did in March 2017, he looked on a competitive mark if he retained his old ability and so it proved. 

Unfortunately, he came up against a well handicapped rival in San Benedeto on this occasion. Still if he can build on this run, clearly the dreaded bounce factor could come into play, he’s on a good mark and can land a handicap chase. He could get a bit further than 2m 4f and softer ground would be his favour too, 4 wins from 7 runs 7 placed on soft.

Defi Scare, trained by Richard Hobson, a winner over fences when trained in France. The 6-year-old was having his third start for the trainer. He had made a promising debut at Doncaster in January but disappointed back at the same track 17-days later.

This was much better from him after a recent wind-op in finishing 5^th of 13 in the 2m ½ f novices handicap hurdle. He seemed to find the distance on the short side, being slightly outpaced coming to three out before staying on after the last.

His French win came on very soft ground so more give underfoot should suit him as could a step up in trip.

Wolverhampton

Monday 4^th March

Kilbaha Lady, trained by Nigel Tinkler, looked nicely handicapped mare on her best turf form of last summer. The 5-year-old had run well on her previous two starts since returning from a short break.  Slightly slow away, which turned out not be an inconvenience given the race was run to suit those making their effort from the rear. Despite not getting the clearest of passage twice through the race she still managed to get within a length of the winner at the line.

A moderate Class 6 handicap like this should be within her compass off this sort of mark, when all the cards fall better than they did on Monday.

Weekend Betting Preview – Part 1

This weekend I am going to concentrate on the Sandown card for selections but there maybe some from Ayr, Wolverhampton and Gowran Park depending on entries. More on those in tomorrow evenings post/email.

The big betting race on Saturday is the Matchbook Imperial Cup at Sandown and I will look a deeper look at that race. Before that we have a recent eyecatcher running at Sandown on Friday..

Friday 8^th Match

Sandown

4:10 – Ardmayle – 4/1 @ Bet365 & William Hill – Bounced back to something like his best on his debut over fences last time. A third placed effort behind Not Another Muddle over C&D looks solid form. The 7-year-old aces similar going today and should be capable of being competitive once again. There should be more progression in him and  if he produces his C&D form he can give us a good run for money.

Saturday 9^th March

Sandown

2:25 – Matchbook Imperial Cup Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) – 2m

I can’t say I have had much luck in the race in the past but as ever hope springs eternal. The racecourse management will be a shade disappointed that just 16 out of possible 22 runners stand their ground for this year’s renewal.  

Here are the runners on shortlist. The odds in brackets are the best priced available on Thursday evening.

Dr Richard Newland had a couple of entries at the five-day stage: Leoncavallo & Storm Rising. The former doesn’t take his place, but the latter does. We haven’t seen Storm Rising (14/1) since he ran below expectations in the Greatwood Hurdle at Cheltenham back in November. Prior to that the 6-year-old had won his two previous starts. The rain softened ground tempers enthusiasm slightly.

Recent Kempton eyecatcher Solomon Grey (14/1), trained by Dan Skelton, need respecting on his 2^nd of 14 in the Lanzarote Handicap Hurdle at Kempton in January. No issues with the drop back to the minimum trip but the going could be. The 7-year-old won on soft ground at Market Rasen last season but there is the suspicion he might be a better horse on a sounder surface.

Top-weight Call Me Lord (8/1), trained by Nicky Henderson, is the class horse of the field there’s no doubt about it. Despite carrying 11-12 he can’t be ruled out on a track he really likes. He was runner-up in this race last year off 8lb lower and his form figures around here are 1121.

The trainer also has an interesting contender in Dream Du Grand Val (7/1). The 6-year-old has won his last two starts although neither race was strong. However, the style of both wins suggests a mark of 139 could be a lenient one.

Recent Ascot eyecatcher Malaya (6/1) is Paul Nicholls only runner in the race. No problem with soft ground for the mare who looks capable of going close off 136.

Last time out C&D winner Monsieur Lecoq (5/1) look sure to go well on soft ground off his light weight.  He’s won his last races on soft & heavy. Up 8lb for his last win but he’s progressing with each race and you can see why he heads the ante-post market.

Benny’s Bridge (8/1), made a winning handicap debut at Cheltenham 42-days ago. The 6-year-old was given a nice patient ride by Paddy Brennan steadily making headway coming to the last. His jockey produced him to win on the run in and the gelding went on to win by a comfortable 2 ¾ lengths. Up 14lb in the weights and a more competitive race makes life tougher. He will also run from 8lb out of the weights here. Remains open to improvement and will need to do.

David Pipe,who won this race in 2014 and who’s father Martin liked to lay one out for the race. He saddles handicap debutant Extra Mag (7/1). A winner two starts back at Exeter. The 5-year-old improved on that performance when finishing runner-up at Kempton 40-days ago. Handicap debut today and connections opt for the first time cheekpieces. There must be a good chance that a mark of 134 could underestimate him.

Blu Cavalier (16/1), who had been beaten in a Fakenham seller two starts back. He then went on to out run his 100/1 odds when finishing 3^rd to Al Dancer in the rescheduled Betfair Hurdle at Ascot last month. The 9-year-old could be slightly flattered by his proximity to that smart winner, but he shouldn’t be underestimated. Each way contender with Jonjo O’Neill once again taking 5lb off the geldings back.

Verdict: An ultra-competitive handicap hurdle. There are seven on my shortlist for the race but at this stage I will hold fire until the next e-mail as to my final selections.

Always check with an odds comparison service like Oddschecker to get the best prices available

All selections win only unless indicated as each way.

Good luck with your bets.

Cheers

John

Hi all,

We have a recent eyecatcher running at Kempton today.

Kempton

7:00 – Rectory Road -8/1 @ Paddy Power or 15/2 – Gen – The Andrew Balding trained son of Paco Boy, made it 2 from 2 here when winning 47-days ago.

This is step up in class for the gelding and he comes up against some potential improvers. Step back up to a mile is fine and he’s got each-way claims this evening.

Cheers

John

Hi all,

At least Royal Birth did the business at Lingfield yesterday.

However, It should have been better. Theatre Guide came to the last well clear, looking like he only had to jump it cleanly to win the Veterans Chase at Newbury.

Sadly the old racing saying, it’s never over till it’s over came into play once again. The 12-year-old blundered away his chance at the last and eventually was overhauled in the final few yards by the winner Carole’s Destrier.

I have had a look at the Sunday racing and in all truth I can’t really find any solid betting opportunities.

See you all on Thursday.

Cheers

John

Hi all,

Sadly, still down with this bug. So sadly, there will not be any horses to follow in the notebook. Normal service will resume next week.

I have managed to have a look at couple of races.

Newbury

2:05 – William Hill Supporting Greatwood Veterans’ Handicap Chase (Leg 3 Of The Veterans’ Chase Series) – 3m 2f

Theatre Guide isn’t as good as he used to be. The 12-year-old was however runner-up to Houblon Des Obeaux in the final of last years series at Sandown last month. Even at the revised weights he shouldn’t beat his old rival, but the better ground will suit and he’s a very well-handicappd horse.

Theatre Guide – 8/1 @ Ladbrokes & William Hill

2:40 – William Hill Supporting Greatwood Gold Cup Handicap Chase (Grade 3) – 2m 4f

Two against the field here are Dolos and Javert.

Dolos, is trained by Paul Nicholls whose had on a stranglehold on the race in the past ten years with 7 winners from 20 runners 35% +43.83 9 placed 45%. The trainer runs three in this year’s renewal.

All his seven winners shared the following traits:

Age: 6yo to 8yo

Chase Wins: 1 to 3

7 winners from 10 runners 70% +53.83 8 placed 80%

Dolos is a qualifier using the above trends and he comes into the race on the back of Sandown win 28-days ago. That win came over 2m and his best form is over two miles but if he stays I think he can win. He should get the strong pace he needs.

Javert, trained by Emma Lavelle looks worth of a saver. The 10-year-old is vulnerable to younger legs, but he goes well fresh. Ground and distance suit but he’s 9lb higher than for his last win.

Dolos – 8/1 @ Willliam Hill & Bet365

Javert – 10/1 @ William Hill & Ladbrokes

We also have a recent eyecatcher running at Lingfield.

Lingfield

2:50 – Royal Birth – 9/4 – Gen

Always check with an odds comparison service like Oddschecker to get the best prices available

All selections win only unless indicated as each way.

Good luck with your bets.

Cheers

John

All in all, a cracking Saturday with Crosspark, Southfield Stone & Eamon An Cnoic all winning at good prices and Double Shuffle going down on his shield in the big handicap chase at Kempton to land the each-way part of the bet.

I was going to swerve today but there is a valuable handicap chase at Naas that has tempted me in and there’s also a previous eyecatcher running later on the card.

Sunday 24^th February

Naas

2:30 – A field of 13 are declared to go to post for this 2m 4f novices’ handicap chase.

I gave a positive mention to Impact Factor in last weeks notebook when the 7-year-old stayed on well to finish runner-up the useful Riders Onthestorm at Punchestown 14-days ago. The step up to 2m 4f looks a good move for his handicap debut although a bit more ease in the ground might also suit.

Poker Party, trained by Henry De Bromhead, built on the promise of his handicap chase debut at Leopardstown when winning over C&D 28-days. In the process of his 5 ½ win he beat Stowaway Forever who re-opposes on 7lb better terms here. There shouldn’t be much between the pair at the revised weights and the slightly better ground could suit the runner-up.

Kildorrery, has been shaping well on his last two starts in handicaps over 2m 1f. The step up to 2m 4f looks like it can bring out even more progression from the 6-year-old, whose very effective on good ground. Ruby Walsh is replaced by a 7lb conditional jockey. He maybe a tricky ride as he’s been given exaggerated waiting tactics on his last two runs. That said you have to think shrewd connections have probably had a plan in mind with this one.

Beyond The Law, won two hurdle races last season for Mouse Morris. Both those wins came on heavy ground. The 7-year-old fell on his chase debut at Punchestown and was then well beaten in Grade 1 & Grade 2 races. He bounced back in lesser company when getting within 10 lengths of Real Steel at Fairyhouse last month. There was plenty to like about his second placed effort there. He makes his handicap debut here and can surely win races off a mark of 133 although he may need more of a stamina test on a sound surface.

Verdict: Kildorrery does worry me and I have slight concerns about the going for both Impact Factor & Beyond The Law but I will take them against the field.

Impact Factor – 6/1 @ Bet365 & Coral

Beyond The Law – 10/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes – each way

3:35 – Just the four go to post for this 2m Grade 3 chase.

Avenir D’Une Vie, trained by Henry De Bromhead, was an eyecatcher for the notebook at Fairyhouse. The 9-year-old returned from 12 months off the track when running well for a long way, before ultimately finishing a well beaten 9^th of 10, in the valuable Dan Moore Handicap Chase. He will sharper today with that run under his belt. I think he would prefer softer ground to be at his best but this isn’t the strongest of races and as Eamon An Cnoic showed at Chepstow on Saturday one shouldn’t be too dogmatic about the going.

Avenir D’Une Vie – 15/2 @ Paddy Power or 13/2 @ Ladbrokes

Always check with an odds comparison service like Oddschecker to get the best prices available

All selections win only unless indicated as each way.

Hi all,

Part two of this week’s notebook. We have four recent eyecatchers running across four courses and I have added a few more selections for Kempton & Newcastle in addition to those I sent you yesterday. That’s where I will begin.

Saturday 23^rd February

Kempton

1:15 – I am going to take a chance with Champagne Champ in this. We haven’t seen him over jumps since finishing second over C&D last March. The 7-year-old makes his handicap hurdle debut after three starts over hurdles, including a win at Chepstow. Had a nice prep on the all weather here last month with a close-up 3^rd placed effort.

Champagne Champ – 16/1 @ Ladbrokes & Coral – each way – (both paying 4 places 1/5 odds)

2:25 – I don’t think yesterday’s impressive Warwick winner Song For Someone will run in the Adonis. I gave Giving Glances a positive mention and I am happy to go with the filly as she will really appreciate the good ground.

Giving Glances – 13/2 @ William Hill & Ladbrokes

3:35 – I have already tipped up Glen Rocco, who remains my main hope for the 888sport Handicap Chase. The Tom George horses continue to go well so, although Double Shuffle is vulnerable to any improver in the field, he looks likely to go well in this race again. His 5^th placed effort in the King George VI, was the first time he’s been out of the first two here at Kempton.

Didero Vallis, trained by Venetia Williams, like Glen Rocco, remains unexposed over fences this will only be the 6-year-old fourth start over the larger obstacles. He once again showed a good attitude at the finish when winning at Haydock 55-days ago. He comes into the race looking for the hat trick here off 6lb higher. Granted his stamina for 3m must be proved but he does look overpriced and remains open to further progress over fences.

Double Shuffle – 10/1 @ William Hill  – Each way

Didero Vallis – 12/1 @ Paddy Power – each way (paying 4 places 1/5 odds)

Newcastle

2:40 – Sadly Sharp Response didn’t stand his ground in the Eider Chase at the overnight stage but Progress Drive still runs. That means the Paul Nicholls trained Vicente is now the favourite. We still have eyecatcher Kimberlite County still in the field.  Crosspark finished third in the valuable Classic Handicap Chase at Warwick on his last start. His trainer Caroline Bailey has her horses in good form and a good run can be expected from her 9-year-old if he reproduces his Warwick effort and of course sees out today’s 4m trip.

Crosspark – 16/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes – each way (both paying 4 places ¼ odds)

Chepstow

3:40 – I’m happy to take a chance on the Tom George trained Sandymount in this 2m 7 ½ f handicap hurdle. The 8-year-old is a well handicapped horse based on his form of two years ago. He returned from 557-day break with a decent effort at Wincanton 37-days ago. Should be fitter with that run under his belt and has an each-way chance especially with William Hill a standout 20/1.

Sandymount – 20/1 @ William Hill – each way (paying 3 places ¼ odds)

Good luck with your bets.

Cheers

John

This Saturday it’s Eider Chase Day at Newcastle, with the highlight being the marathon Eider Chase.

We also have a jumping card at Kempton which feature’s three Grade 2 races, the Adonis Juvenile Hurdle, the Pendil Novices’ Chase and the Dovecote Novices’ Hurdle. As well as the 3m 888sport Handicap Chase, a race that used have more prestige than it does now but nonetheless it usually serves up a decent contest.

For those of you who like your all-weather action at Lingfield it’s the Group 3 Winter Derby.

There’s been some steady rain at Newcastle on Wednesday afternoon which should ease the ground but the weather forecast for the rest of the week is set to be mainly dry and mild for the time of year.

More on the Saturday action later. Let’s begin as normal with a look back to last week’s action and some horses worth noting with the future in mind.

Thursday 14^th February

Meydan

The most interesting race on the card for me was the 1m 4f handicap that concluded Thursday’s Carnival card.

Godolphin had the first three home with Saeed Bin Suroor having the winner and runner-up.

Mountain Hunter, a winner of a 1m 2f handicap at last year’s Carnival built on his 5^th placed seasonal reappearance with a tidy win here. The 5-year-old was always in a good position and after taking it up 2f from home never really looked like he would be caught. This was his first start over trip, and he stayed it well in a race that was run at a decent gallop. He’s only been put up 1lb so can win again over this this trip. The third home Walton Street,trained by Charlie Appleby, looks the one to take out of the race.

Eyecatcher: Walton Street – The 5-year-old was having his first run since a disappointing effort at Doncaster back in September. He ran on well at the finish to get within 1 ½ lengths of the winner. He should be better for the run and he’s at his best on quick ground. I am sure he can win again sometime this year either here or back in the UK.

Friday 15^th February

Sandown

Friday’s Sandown card also saw the rescheduled, from Warwick, Grade 2 Kingmaker Novice Chase. The race only attracted a field of four and one of those was withdrawn of Dalila Du Seuil before the start on vet’s advice. This meant Kalashnikov was sent off the 1/4 favourite. The favourite jumped well in the early stages of the race but jumped the water poorly and that put the 6-year-old on the back foot from then onward. Glen Forsa who had jumped very well was always in command and ran out the easy winner.

Kalashnikov has never really enjoyed going this way around but still this was a poor performance. He could well need to step up in trip over fences but it’s looking like he’s just a little bit short of what’s required to be a Grade 1 novice chaser.

The winner could now head for the Arkle or JLT Novices Chase at Cheltenham. Given he won over 2m 7 ½ f on his chase debut it shows the 7-year-old versatility distance wise. He’s a 6/1 for the Arkle and 7/1 for the JLT but the latter race would be a better choice for me.

Eyecatcher: Ardmayle, trained by Ali Stronge, ran against a recent eyecatcher in Not Another Muddle. He was not match for what well handicapped horse at the finish, but it was still a good run. The 7-year-old who came into the race 2 wins from 3 runs over fences was having his first start over the larger obstacles since disappointing over 3m at Fakenham back in April 2017.

He had been well beaten on both his two starts over hurdles this season, but this was a nice return to form in finishing a 3 ¼ length third almost grabbing second at the line. There should be other days over fences for the gelding with this run under his belt.

Saturday 16th February

There were plenty of good performances at Ascot & Haydock on Saturday. Let’s begin at Ascot. I wouldn’t go over the standout wins by Clan Des Obeaux or Cyrname which have been covered extensively elsewhere.

Ascot

Eyecatcher: Malaya, trained by Paul Nicholls, ran in the 2m 3 ½ f handicap hurdle which was won by stablemate Brio Conti.

The 5-year-old who had won a valuable juvenile handicap hurdle at Ascot back in March 2018, before running poorly in the Grade 1 juvenile hurdle at Aintree. He was highly tried on her seasonal reappearance in a Grade 1 at Auteuil but fell at the last when beaten. The mare returned to handicap company at Kempton over Christmas but once again fell at the last when beaten.

This was a much better effort in finishing 4^th. She was travelling well at the back of the field when not getting the best of runs two out.  Maybe she didn’t find as much as her jockey thought she would after the last. But at least she completed this time and she’s on a competitive mark just 2lb higher than for her last win.

Betfair Hurdle Reflections

The well backed Al Dancer proved to be too well handicapped for his rivals in the rescheduled Betfair Hurdle. The 6-year-old now heads for the Supreme Novices Hurdle at Cheltenham and in a year where the race doesn’t look the strongest, he must have a good chance of defying the hoodoo of handicap runners in Grade 1 hurdles at the Festival.

The pair to take from the race though look to be the Nicholls pair of Getaway Trump and even more so Mont Des Avaloirs.

Getaway Trump was second in the betting, and like Al Dancer came into the race as an improving novice hurdler. The 6-year-old wasn’t in as good a position as the winner and doesn’t have that’s ones speed either. He made headway from the rear coming to two out and stayed on well enough to finish 4^th but he never really looked like he would catch the winner. Indeed, he was probably as far behind the winner at the line as he had been coming to the last.

Eyecatcher: Mont Des Avaloirs, twice a winner over hurdles last season he ended last season with a close-up 4^th of 20, on his handicap debut, in the valuable novices’ handicap hurdle at Sandown back in April.

The 6-year-old didn’t totally convince when runner-up on his chase debut at Newton Abbot and returned to hurdles when beaten just ½ length into 3rd by Global Citizen at Newbury. He was then sent off the 5/1 favourite for a valuable handicap hurdle at Ascot but was to keen in the early stages of the race and ran well below market expectations.

Once again, he was well backed for Betfair Hurdle (7/1). Like his stablemate being held up wasn’t really the place to be in a race that wasn’t run to suit. He never looked like he would get into contention and eventually finished a never nearer 7th at the finish.

Not given a hard race though and the handicapper has dropped him 3lb on the back of Saturday’s run. He remains one to be interested in racing off the same mark as when putting up a career best at Newbury. 

Haydock

At Haydock we saw a genuine Albert Bartlett Novice Hurdle contender, a staying handicap hurdler who’s’ beginning to look well handicapped and an improving handicap chaser who could be useful next season. As a bonus I also have the first of my Cheltenham Festival trainer stats for you.

The Rebecca Curtis trained Lisnagar Oscaris now a strong contender after his easy win in the 3m ½ f Grade 2 Prestige Novices’ Hurdle on Saturday.  Last seen beating the highly regarded Dickie Diver at Chepstow. The 6-year-old has that experienced hurdling profile that seems to be required by winners of the Albert Bartlett. As he showed in his win here there are no stamina issues with this son of Oscar. The trainer is no stranger to Cheltenham Festival success, having had four winners, including an Albert Bartlett with At Fishers Cross in 2013.

This is her record at the Cheltenham Festival:

Rebecca Curtis – 4 winners from 46 runners 9% -12.62 A/E 1.83 5 placed 11% nothing special in those results. However, if you focus on her runners that were sent off 14/1 & under and different picture emerges:

4 winners from 10 runners 40% +23.38 A/E 3.2 5 placed 50%

Her runners that are well fancied in the betting can be expected to go well.

Lisnager Oscar is now a best priced 8/1 for next month’s race which seem good enough for me given he ticks plenty of the right boxes of a likely winner of the race.

Eyecatcher: The Paddy Pie, trained by Sue Smith, it wasn’t difficult to be impressed by his win in the 2m 4f handicap chase. Following up his recent success at Sedgefield 20-days earlier, the 6-year-old jumped solidly and found plenty when required to win by 1 ¾ lengths. After the race his trainer told the Racing Post: “He’s getting stronger all the time and with another summer on his back, he’ll be a very nice horse”.

We probably won’t see the best of him till next season, but I am sure you can win again before the season is out. The handicapper has raised him just 4lb for Saturday’s win which looks lenient as I think he’s a mid to high 130s handicap chaser in the making.

Eyecatcher: Champers On Ice, there was plenty of support, for the David Pipe gelding, going off the 5/1 co-favourite for the Pertemps Series Qualifier. The 9-year-old was having his first start for 428-days

However, betting suggested a big run was expected and his backers got one. As he kept on nicely all the way to the line to finish 4^th of 13.

He’s very lightly raced for his age, just the 13 starts under rules and he’s 2 wins from 8 runs 5 placed over hurdles.

The run should put him spot on fitness wise for the final of the series at Cheltenham a track he’s won at in the past and also finished 3^rd in the Albert Bartlett in March 2016.

He’s high on my shortlist for the race, along with Sire Du Berlais, and the 25/1 available with William Hill for the Pertemps Network Final Handicap Hurdle looks good each way value to me.

Others Worth Noting:

Haydock

Chef D’Oeuvre, has really taken off since the switch to the Sam England stable and for the step up to 3m 3f+ on his last two starts. The 8-year-old had previously won on his last visit to Haydock on soft ground. The drying ground wasn’t expected to suit the ‘mud lover’ but he ran a big race to finish a two length 3^rd to Robinsfirth in the Grand National Trial Handicap Chase. The handicapper has nudged him up a further 4lb for this effort but there looks to be some mileage in his new mark on soft or heavy ground. A race the Midlands National would seem ideal for him especially if there was plenty of juice in the ground.

Wincanton

Some Chaos, trained by Michael Scudamore, had won his first two starts over fences at Bangor & Market Rasen before finishing runner-up to Reikers Island over C&D back in December. He didn’t seem to enjoy racing at Cheltenham when a beaten favourite there on New Year’s Day The 8-year-old resumed winning ways with a decisive win in the 3m 1f handicap chase. The handicapper has put him up 11lb which makes life tougher, but he remains open to more progression and is one to keep on side for now.

There you go six horses to follow, a few others who put up notable performances and a selection for the Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle.

Cheers

John