Category: Victor Value

Hi all,

At last a couple of winner’s courtesy of Abel Handy & Longhouse Poet. They don’t make up for what’s been a poor week so far, but a profitable day is always welcomed.

Well it’s the final day of the Punchestown Festival and the start of Guineas Weekend at Newmarket with the highlight of a cracking card being the Qipco 2,000 Guineas.

Apologies in advance, today’s betting preview is shorter than normal. As I have been feeling fairly fatigued today.  I have selections from Punchestown and Newmarket for you today. As well as a couple of eyecatchers running at Goodwood & Thirsk. All on what looks a big weekend’s betting.

Newmarket

1:50 – A 1m 1f handicap over the Cambridgeshire distance. Al Muffrih head the betting at 7/2. Trained by William Haggas. He was highly regarded as three-year-old winning a Newbury maiden over 1m 2f on his seasonal reappearance. Before disappointing at Sandown back in June. First start for 331-days but did win first time up last year. Has been gelded over the winter and makes his handicap debut here. Could be nicely handicapped off 91.

Power of Darkness, trained by Marcus Tregoning, won two of his four starts last season, both at Salisbury on good to firm ground. Returned to action over a mile here 16-days ago. He was finishing his race of well that day and was only beaten a head into second. Up 2lb for that performance should be fine over the extra furlong. Can win races off his present mark.

Al Muffrih – 7/2 @ William Hill & Paddy Power

2:55 – If you have had a chance to look at this week’s weekly notebook you will have seen that I have put Mildenberger up as one of last week’s tracker performance at Epsom. The 4-year-old was doing his best work at the finish over 1m 2f and should be well suited by the extra two furlongs he races here. The return to a more conventional track, won the Fielden Stakes here last year, before running finishing runner-up to Roaring Lion in the Dante, will also suit the 4-year-old he didn’t seem to handle the Epsom undulations to well. Granted this is a tough ask as it’s a Group 2 contest and last week’s race was a Class 2 handicap. But I don’t think he will be disgraced here. It’s just a shame we have just the seven going to post.

Mildenberger – 8/1 @ William Hill & Ladbrokes

3:35 – The Qipco 2,000 Guineas – Fancied horses have been dropping like flies in the run-up to the race. In my Monday Daily Punt column, I noted that Aidan O’Brien could have the key to the first colts classic and he saddles Ten Sovereigns & Magna Grecia. In the end Ryan Moore has opted for the former and as expected the latter has drifted out to second favourite. If there is to be a superstar among the field, it’s probably going to be Ten Sovereigns. But will he stay? Magna Grecia gets the mile well and has been trained for this race since he won the Vertem Futurity at Doncaster last October. I wouldn’t put anyone of Madhmoon who looks a solid each-way contender. The openness of the race has tempted Godolphin to supplement the Charlie Appleby trained Al Hilalee. The son of Dubawi won both his two starts as juvenile. He was being trained for a tilt at the Derby.

Verdict: Al Hilalee is open to plenty of improvement and shouldn’t be underestimated. He should be staying on nicely at the finish. At around 16/1 he must merit some interest at an each- way price although my first choice is the solid Magna Grecia.

Magna Grecia -5/1 @ Ladbrokes & William Hill

Al Hilalee -16/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes (both paying 4 places 1/5 odds)

5:20 – Richard Hannon saddles three contenders in this Class 2 handicap in Mordred, Leroy Leroy and Brian Epstein and it’s the latter that is my preference. He improved with each of his three starts as a juvenile and ended his season by winning over a mile at Kempton back in October. The colt made a pleasing return to action when 5^th of 14 over C&D at the Craven Meeting 17-days ago. He’s a strong scopey 3-year-old whose open to further improvement and can surely win a race off his present mark of 84.

Brian Epstein – 11/2 @ William Hill & Ladbrokes

Punchestown

I’m concentrating on the three competitive looking big field handicaps on the final day of the Punchestown Festival.

3:10 – Plenty of the 18 runners in this 3m 7f handicap chase have questions to answer, including my selection Some Neck.

Some Neck won a small field Grade 2 here over 2m 6 ½ f back in November. He was then sent off just 15/2 second favourite for the valuable Thyestes Handicap Chase on his next start but fell at the 8^th. He was then sent off the 9/2 favourite for the Boylesports Grand National Trial but could only finish 6^th of 16. Given his strength in the market for those better races he must be given a good chance. Will the 8-year-old stay the distance and is better suited to smaller fields? We’ll find out the answers to those questions this afternoon.

Some Neck – 7/1 – Gen

5:00 – A field of 11 are declared to go to post for this 3m ½ f handicap chase. The two that I like most are Acting Lass and Walk To Freedom.

Acting Lass, returns from a 434-day absence. The 8-year-old looked a useful handicapper chaser in the making, having won three of his four starts over fences all going right handed. He’s won after a 365-day break in the past so should be fine fitness wise. Slightly softer ground may be preferable, but he returns off what looks a winnable mark, just 1lb higher than for his last win and trainer Harry Fry has already had a winner at the meeting this week.

Walk To Freedom, has no fitness questions to answer, as the 9-year-old put in a great effort to finish 3^rd at Fairyhouse on his return to fences 12 -days ago. Better known for his exploits over hurdles but he can race off a 6lb lower mark over fences. He goes well at Punchestown 1 win from 3 runs 2 placed and should go close here.

Walk To Freedom – 7/2 @ William Hill & Ladbrokes

Acting Lass – 4/1 @ William Hill & Bet365

5:35 – A 2m 4f handicap hurdle for which a field of 25 are set to go to post. This is the trickiest of the three handicaps on the card. My three against the field are:

Canardier, was 5^th of 25 in the Coral Cup at Cheltenham before finishing 3^rd in another big field handicap hurdle at Aintree 29-days ago. He handled the soft ground in both races well enough but he’s an even better horse in a sounder surface which he should get today. If those runs haven’t taken the edge of this consistent 7-year-old, he will go close.

Out Of The Loop, was in winning form when last seen in action 434-day ago. The 6-year-old is looking for the hat trick today but is 11lb higher in the weights than for his last win at Fairyhouse. Lightly raced this will only be his 7^th career starts and remains open to further progress. Best form has come on soft ground but a sounder surface shouldn’t be too much of an issue.

Spades Are Trumps. like Out of The Loop is owned by J P McManus. He returned from a 316-day lay off to finish 6^th of 19 at Naas two starts back. Built on that sold return to action when 2^nd of 14 at Fairyhouse 12-days ago. Although the 6-year-old is dropping back in trip 2f, he’s on the same mark as last time and can go close again. Trainer Gavin Cromwell could do with a winner as he’s 0 winners from 37 runners in the past 14-day. Despite that negative stat I expect him to be competitive again at track he won his maiden hurdle at back in 2017.

Canardier – 9/1 @ Paddy Power

Out Of The Loop – 11/1 – Gen

Spades Are Trumps – 16/1 @ Coral – each way (paying 5 places 1/5 odds)

Eyecatchers Running:

There are two recent eyecatchers running today:

Goodwood

2:40 – Whitefountainfairy – 9/1 @ William Hill – The 4-year-old caught the eye when 4^th on her seasonal reappearance at Kempton two starts back. She also posted tow of her best turf efforts over C&D. First, when runner-up in a Group 3 as a juvenile to a future 1,000 Guineas winners and then when 7^th of 17 in a handicap last August. On the latter occasion she was beaten just 5 ¾ lengths despite not getting the clearest of runs twice in the final two furlongs. Racing off a 5lb lower mark now she’s the type to need all the cards to fall right but when they do, she handicapped to win.

Thirsk

4:15 – Fennaan – 16/1 @Bet365 (paying 4 places ¼ odds) – Went into the tracker after his first start at Musselburgh, for new trainer Philip Makin, 32-days ago. Wasn’t well drawn that day but did well to finish as close as he did at the finish.  First run at a mile today in this competitive handicap but once again hasn’t got a great draw in stall 14. He’s handicapped to win again off his present mark that’s for sure, but will it be today? Personally, I think 7f will be his optimum but he still has each way claims.

Always check with an odds comparison service like Oddschecker to get the best prices available

All selections win only unless indicated as each way.

Cheers

John

Hi all,

Day four of what’s turning out to be a tough Punchestown Festival on the betting front.

Punchestown

4:20 – A 2m 5f novices’ handicap chase. A field of 12 are declared to go post which could well be decided by the weather. On Thursday the going was starting to dry out, but rain has been forecast so a lot could depend on how much of the wet stuff hits the track before the race.

Real Steel, trained by Willie Mullins, looks set to head the betting. He’s won two of his five starts over fences. The 6-year-old then struggled but wasn’t disgraced when only 6^th of 10 in the Grade 1, JLT Novices’ Chase at Cheltenham. He then ran stablemate Voix Du Reve to 5 ½ lengths in a Grade 1 at Fairyhouse. That was a good performance although he probably needs to improve again to win this off his mark.

Hardline, beat Getabird in a Grade 1 at Limerick on Boxing Day. The 7-year-old hasn’t run to that level of form on two subsequent starts. Including when sent off the 100/30 favourite for the Arkle Novices’ Chase on his last start. He was never really travelling during that race and eventually finished a well beaten 7^th.  Top weight of 11-10 isn’t going to be easy to overcome but the step back up distance should suit him.

Poker Party, has been improving with racing in handicap chases and has won his last two starts at Naas. Up 10lb for the last of those wins. He needs to progress further to win this which of course is a definite possibility. First start for 68-days but he looks sure to run well.

De Name Escapes Me, has been failing to get home over 3m. The drop back to 2m 5f will be in the  9-year-old favour but he remains 13lb higher than for his last win at Navan over 2m 4f back in December.

Louis’ Vac Pouch, put in a much improved performance to run the useful Secret Investor to 3 ¾ lengths in a Grade 2 at Ayr. Whether that improved performance came due to the quick ground last time? We shall find out today, but the 7-year-old has won on soft ground over hurdles and has form going right-handed. If he runs to his Ayr form, then he looks on a competitive mark and looks capable of going close.

Beyond the Law, finally got off the mark over fences at the ninth attempt when winning a Cork beginners chase 12-days ago. Looks held by Poker Party on their running at Naas back in February but he’s improving with experience over the larger obstacles. The drier the ground the better his chance. Still he looks overpriced at around 14/1 for trainer ‘Mouse’ Morris.

Verdict: If English raider Louis’ Vac Pouch runs as well as he did at Ayr he can go well. Preference though is for the progressive Poker Party and the Beyond The Law who’s improving with each run over fences.

Poker Party – 11/2 @ Ladbrokes & Coral

Beyond The Law – 14/1 – Gen

4:55 – A 2m 5f Mares only handicap chase.

Timeforwest won a 3m Cork Grade 3 chase on her last start 12 day ago. Talking that form literally the 7-year-old is an improving mare who’s in foal. A useful 7lb conditional has been booked for the ride so she’s capable of big run.

Moyhenna won a soft ground Grade 2 novices’ chase at Limerick 47-days ago. The 7-year-old is at her best on soft ground, so her chance is enhanced if the rain arrives.

Ask Susan, trained by Willie Mullins, returned from a 212-day break when finishing 6^th of 16 in a valuable handicap hurdle at Fairyhouse.  Came in for plenty of support that day on what was her debut for the trainer. Returns to the larger obstacles today and looks competitively weighted on the best of her form off a mark of just 123.  Looks the one to beat but maybe a better on a sound surface.

Ask Susan – 3/1 – Gen

5:30 – Melon – Has yet to win a Grade 1 Hurdle but surely, he can win one and his trainer Willie Mullins thinks he can. The 7-year-old has twice finished runner-up in the Champion Hurdle. He fell in this race last year three out when closing on the leader and was still going well enough in the lead when falling three out at Aintree 29-days ago.

Melon – 7/1 – Gen

6:05 – Royal Rendezvous – Another winner for Willie Mullins?  Well Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle City Island will be a tough nut to track but Royal Rendezvous is highly regarded by Willie Mullins who has described him as a “horse with a bright future”. The 7-year-old has won his last three starts over hurdle in a spell between August & October of last year. A very easy winner when winning at Galway 188-days ago. Looks worth chancing each-way at a big price.  

Royal Rendezvous – 14/1 @ William Hill & Ladbrokes – each way

7:45 – Longhouse Poet, trained like City Island by Martin Brassil. The 5-year-old was an easy winner of a point to point back in January under today’s jockey Derek O’Connor and is fancied to making a winning debut under rules today.

Longhouse Poet – 9/2 @ Bet365

Eyecatcher

We have a recent eyecatcher running at Musselburgh today.

Musselburgh

2:25- Abel Handy – The 4-year-old made a pleasing return to action when sent off the 5/2 favourite for a Newmarket handicap 15-days ago. He’s a well-handicapped horse and looks nicely drawn for a prominent runner in stall 12 on the nearside rail.  Top weight here but has been dropped 2lb since Newmarket and can now race in Class 4 company.

Abel Handy – 10/3 @ William Hill

Always check with an odds comparison service like Oddschecker to get the best prices available

All selections win only unless indicated as each way.

Cheers

John

Hi all,

Another poor day at Punchestown.  Well It’s Day 3 of the Punchestown Festival. There’s been some great racing over the previous two-days. Sadly, it’s not involved any of my selections.

Punchestown

3:40 – Drop The Anchor, was well backed when winning a softish ground bumper at Listowel back in September. The 5-year-old looked a useful prospect that day. Put in a career best on his 3^rd start over hurdles, after a couple of quiet runs over hurdles, when 3^rd of 20 back on soft ground at Gowran Park 54 -days ago. Handicap debut off a mark of 116 looks more than workable. Could be another winner for owner J P McManus, although slight concern that trainer Pat Fahy has gone 121-days & 56 runners since saddling a winner.

Drop The Anchor – 8/1 @ Paddy Power

4:15 – Impact Factor, finally got his head in front at the 9^th attempt over fences when winning a valuable handicap chase at Fairyhouse 11-days ago. He may well have a got a bit lucky that day as the quirky but talented Mind’s Eye, who was just in the lead coming to the second last decided to run out taking out on his inside the patiently ridden Snugsborough Hall who had made eyecatching headway into third. That incident left Impact Factor clear of the rest. Previous eyecatcher Mind’s Eye gets the first time cheekpieces today and he’s talented and handicapped to win a race like this if the headgear works. but isn’t one for maximum faith.

It’s not hard to think that Snugsborough Hall was the unlucky horse in that race as he was travelling like the winner when he was carried out. The ground will be softer than it was at Fairyhouse but the 8-year-old did win a soft ground novice chase two starts back so shouldn’t be inconvenienced by the rain softened ground. Moon Over Germany won a soft ground Grade 3 at Aintree on his last start. The handicapper has put the 8-year-old up 11lb for that win which makes life harder but the ground has come in his favour so he needs respecting. 

Don’t Touch It, won this race in 2017 off 1lb lower but didn’t run close to that high-class form until getting up in the final strides on soft ground at Listowel back in September. Two poor runs once again followed that effort and the 9-year-old returns from a 198-day layoff. Can’t be ruled out if the break has freshened him up.

English raider Bun Doran comes into the race fresher than most and arguably the best form. The 8-year-old won on his seasonal return at Cheltenham back in November before finishing runner-up back there the following month. Showed he goes well fresh, putting up a career best when 2^nd of 19 in the Grand Annual Handicap Chase at the Cheltenham Festival 48-days ago. Coming to the last it looked like jockey Paddy Brennan had produced him to win his race but not for the first time he didn’t find as much as expected and couldn’t get past eventual winner Croco Bay. At the revised weights there shouldn’t be much between the pair again.

Verdict: The chances of Moon Over Germany and Snugsborough Hall are there for all to see. I do like the latter but there’s no value left in his price now. There won’t be much between the consistent Bun Doran and Croco Bay but I just prefer the former. The first time cheekpieces could be making of Mind’s Eye has the ability to win a race like this of his present mark and was an eyecatcher three starts back.

Bun Doran – 15/2 @ William Hill

Mind’s Eye – 8/1 – Gen

6:05 – A field of 25 are declared to go to post for this valuable 3m handicap hurdle. Gordon Elliott saddles four and the best of them could be Elwood. The ex-French trained gelding was thrown into the deep end for his first two starts for the trainer falling in listed company before pulling up in a Grade 3 at Cork two starts back. The drop into a handicap hurdle suited when the 5-year-old finished runner-up to the improving Ronald Pump over 3m back at Cork 42-days ago. The winner went onto defy 13lb rise to win a valuable Fairyhouse handicap hurdle last month. Elwood has been put up just 5lb for his last run and looks capable of winning a race like this.

Elwood – 14/1 @ William Hill – each way (paying 5 places 1/5 odds)

6:40 – Just seven are set to go to post for the 2m Grade 1 Ryanair Novice Chase but it could be one of the races of the meeting. At the head of the betting are two Cheltenham festival winners: Arkle winner Duc Des Genievres and JLT winner Defi Du Seuil who drops back to 2m here.

The field also contains the first and second in the in the Aintree Grade 1 novices’ chase in Ornua and Us And Them. I think Ornua can confirm form with the runner-up. He jumped really well that day although the going will be softer than at Aintree he needs respecting in this deeper race.

Add in Voix De De Reve, stablemate of Duc Des Genievres who finally put it together over fences when winning a 2m 4f Grade 1 at Fairyhouse 11-days ago and Chacun Pour Soi who returned from 1089 day lay off to put in a breathtaking round of jumping to win a Naas beginners chase 53-days ago. The 7-year-old would have been the mount of Ruby Walsh before his retirement on Wednesday. You can see why this race has the potential to be one of the races of the meeting or even the season.

Verdict: A race for watching rather than betting in all truth. Ornua will blaze a trail and if the ground dries out, he could hold on. He has definite each-way claims. Chacun Pour Soi could be special but he will have to be to win a race like this and is priced on potential more than what form he’s shown on the track. The anticipated strong pace will suit both Duc Des Genievres and Defi Du Seuil and of the pair I just prefer the claims of the former whose Arkle win may have been slightly underestimated.

Duc Des Genievres – 2/1 @ William Hill & Ladbrokes

Always check with an odds comparison service like Oddschecker to get the best prices available

All selections win only unless indicated as each way.

Cheers

John

Hi all,

A poor day for the service at Punchestown on Tuesday. Let’s hope for better today and there’s all a good card at Ascot. However, lets begin once again over the Irish Sea.

Punchestown

3:40 – Just the 25 go to post for this 2m 5f handicap hurdle for Conditional Jockeys.  It normally pays to note any Jessica Harrington runners at the Punchestown Festival and hopefully it will continue to be the case this week.

Her bumper runners are 1 winner from 34 runners 6 placed 18% so concentrating on those of her runners in chase & hurdle races only looks the way to go.

Those that had finished in the first four on their last start have provided punters with 14 winners from 48 runners 29% 21 placed 44%. If you had backed all such runners at the Punchestown Festival in the past five seasons you would have made a profit of £71 to a £1 level stake at SP.

She saddles two here in Conron & Press Conference who both won their last two starts. The former likes it around Punchestown having won twice here in the past. Whilst the latter impressed when last seen over hurdles when winning at Limerick over Christmas.  They will do for me in open looking race.

Conron – 10/1 – Gen

Press Conference – 8/1 @ Paddy Power

4:20 – I’m going with another Harrington runner here in The Holy One. The 6-year-old was a good winner of a handicap hurdle at Fairyhouse 9-days ago. Has a bit to find with likely favourite Zero Ten on form but he’s in good form and if he handles the softer ground likely today, he should get into the money.

The Holy One – 10/1 @ William Hill & Ladbrokes – each way

5:30 – We have the first three home from the Albert Bartlett in Minello Indo, Commander Of Fleet and Allaho running in this 3m Grade 1 novice hurdle. Carefully Selected was a useful bumper horse finishing runner-up in last years Cheltenham Bumper and third in the Champion Bumper here 12 months ago. The 7-year-old returned from a 326-day break with a good win in a 2m 6f Limerick novice hurdle 45-days ago. The step up to 3m should bring out more progress in him. Best from so far has come on soft or heavy ground so the softer the ground the better for him.

Carefully Selected – 6/1 @ Paddy Power

6:40 – I wouldn’t normally go for a race like this in all truth. However, Beacon Edge trained by Noel Meade was an eyecatcher when 4^th to subsequent Cheltenham Champion Bumper winner Envoi Allen in the Grade 2 bumper at the Dublin Racing Festival back in February. Won on his bumper debut at Ayr for previous trainer Nicky Richards but his run at Leopardstown was even better from. Missed Cheltenham & Aintree and can get into the money here.

Beacon Edge – 8/1 @ William Hill & Ladbrokes – each way

7:10 – A field of 13 are declared to go to post for this valuable 2m 4f handicap chase. I have four on the shortlist but if Tuesday is any guide then I probably haven’t found the winner among the four.

Jett is another for the Harrington Punchestown Festival micro angle I mentioned earlier. The 8-year-old won a Grade 2 on his last start at Fairyhouse. The 8-year-old is improving with racing over fences. Granted he got an uncontested lead at Fairyhouse but if he gets another one today, he will be hard to get past.

Ben Dundee, trained by Gordon Elliott, ran a cracker to finish third to Impressive winner A Plus Tard in the Close Brothers Novices’ Handicap Chase at Cheltenham on his last start. Granted he was well beaten at Cheltenham but he jumped much better than he has done in the past. A previous C&D winner and this only his second start in a handicap chase so he looks on a competitive mark.

Sizing Granite, won this race in 2017 off 1lb lower. The 11-year-old bounced back to form when runner-up at Ayr 19-days ago. He’s been trained for a spring campaign with this race as his target no doubt. He remains vulnerable to any improver in the field and there’s a suspicion that he is better suited by a sounder surface. But Jonjo O’Neill takes off a valuable 3lb in a tight looking handicap which could make all difference.

Blast Of Koeman, usually runs his race in these valuable handicaps but he’s found it hard to win over fences just 1 win from 10 runs 5 placed. Was beaten just a neck in this race 12 months ago off 4lb lower. He was travelling better than the eventual winner when making a bad mistake at the last and the jockey lost his irons. He would probably have won but for that mistake but he’s a horse that doesn’t always find as much when hitting the front.  Won over hurdles here 121 days ago on his last start off a much lower handicap mark. The 8-year-old has the ability to win a race like this, but he will have to be given a clever ride to do so. Lack of a recent run is a slight concern as he’s 0 wins from 6 runs 0 placed when racing 60+days since his last start.

Blast Of Koeman – 8/1 @ William Hill – each way ( Paying 4 places 1/5 odds)

Jett – 9/1 @ William Hill – each way (paying 4 places 1/5 odds)

Ben Dundee – 8/1 @ Ladbrokes & Coral

Ascot

4:25 – Canvassed, made it 2 wins from 2 runs when bolting up at Kempton 28-days ago. The second home at Kempton did nothing for the form when beaten in a Windsor handicap on Monday but Canvassed looked a potential Group horse that day and can put his fitness to good use here. Likely favourite Barney Roy is the class act on back form. However, he returns from a failed stud career and hasn’t raced for 557-days.

Canvassed – 11/2 @ Paddy Power

Always check with an odds comparison service like Oddschecker to get the best prices available

All selections win only unless indicated as each way.

Cheers

John

Hi all,

It’s first post since my Kidney operation a week last Friday.

I’m still in mild pain and sore where the keyhole surgery took place. I also find it difficult to sit at my desk for more than an hour at a time.

That said. I’m determined to get back to work albeit at a steady pace.

It’s the first of five fantastic days racing with the start of the Punchestown Festival. We also have the 1,000/2000 Guineas at the weekend. There’s no better time to get back into the saddle so to speak.

Punchestown Festival – Day 1

One of the perennial question’s punters face with the Punchestown Festival is do you back the Cheltenham/Aintree horses, or do you go with fresher horses who may not have shown there cards yet, so to speak?  Another is. How will the change in going effect the form?

Due to the dry winter across the Irish Sea over the winter. The latter looks less important than the former. One thing we can guarantee is some great racing.

4:20 – Herald Champion Novice Hurdle (Grade 1) – 2m ½ f

Klassical Dream impressed when winning the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle at Cheltenham. If in the same form he will be hard to beat.

Nicky Henderson likes to have a few runners at this Festival, and he saddles the interesting Champagne Platinum. The 5-year-old is unbeaten on both his starts over hurdles. He created a good impression, when showing a nice change of pace to win at Newbury over Christmas. He missed both Cheltenham & Aintree. The form of his two wins isn’t great and he’s to find plenty of improvement to win this. He certainly looks an exciting recruit to chasing when he goes over fences probably next season.  I expect Klassical Dream to win for Willie Mullins but I’m happy to take a punt on Champagne Platinum in the hope the hot favourite is off his game.

Champagne Platinum – 10/1 @ Paddy Power

4:55 – Belargus sneaks into the bottom of the weights for this 2m ½ f handicap hurdle. The 4-year-old has just had the three starts over hurdles and last time out won a juvenile hurdle at Ascot. Handicap debut today off what looks a competitive mark off 125. He looked a horse with plenty of scope for improvement when winning at Ascot and should also be favoured by the stronger pace of big field handicap hurdle.

Another to catch the eye off what looks a competitive mark on his handicap debut is the Noel Meade trained Cosmo’s Moon. The 6-year-old won at the third attempt since switching to the stable. Making all, he jumped well for most of the way to win at Limerick 19-days ago. That win came over 2m 3f so he’s dropping in trip here. The drier the ground the better his chance so connections will be hoping the rain stays away.

Belargus – 12/1 @ Paddy Power – each way (paying 4 places 1/5 odds)

Cosmo’s Moon – 10/1 @ William Hill – each way (paying 4 places 1/5 odds)

5:30 – BoyleSports Champion Chase (Grade 1) – 2m

Just the six are set to for the Champion Chase but it’s a good field with Willie Mullins having the first three in the market in: Min, Un De Sceaux and the Great Field. Min was only 5^th to Altior at Cheltenham but followed up by winning over 2m 4f at Aintree. Un De Sceaux won this race last year but the going looks like it will be livelier this time around. Of the three Great Field is the most intriguing. Even though his last two form figures are FF. Hasn’t run since falling at Leopardstown over Christmas. First run for 124-days but he’s got a fine record when fresh with form figures 111F. He’s a Grade 1 horse when everything clicks, and he gets an uncontested lead. I’m happy to take a chance that he can surprise his better fancied stablemates.

Great Field – 10/1 @ Paddy Power or 8/1 @ William Hill

6:05 – Not a race to get to heavily involved in for obvious reasons. But it’s interesting to see Nicky Henderson decided to bring over Son Of Camas over for his racecourse debut. Highly regarded by the trainer and he’s booked Patrick Mullins for the ride in this valuable bumper.

Son of Camas – 3/1 @Bet365

6:40 – Dooley Insurance Group Champion Novice Chase (Grade 1) – 3m ½ f

Delta Work heads the ante-post market, not surprisingly given his third placed effort behind Topofthegane in the RSA Novices’ Chase at Cheltenham.

Drover’s Lane was well behind Delta Work in the RSA but the better ground will be more in his favour than it was at Cheltenham. Not sure he will be good enough even on a sound surface but he could easily run into the places for trainer Rebecca Curtis whose had winners at the meeting in the past.

A Plus Tard, turned the normally competitive Close Brothers Novices’ Handicap Chase into a procession when winning at Cheltenham on his last start. Step up to 3m should be fine for the 5-year-old. He deserves to take his chance in Grade 1 company, but it may be worth noting that his best form has come in much bigger fields than he faces today.

Getabird missed both Cheltenham and Aintree so will be fresher than most.  Won here over 2m on his seasonal reappearance which makes him 3 wins from 5 runs at Punchestown and indeed all his six career wins have come going right-handed. The 7-year-old was then beaten at 8/15, albeit by just ½ length, in the new Grade 1 at Limerick on Boxing Day. But for a mistake at the last he could well have won. This is just his third start over fences, but he remains capable of better. Steps up to 3m today so has stamina to prove but interesting to see that trainer Willie Mullins lets him take his chance here. He will do for me.

Getabird – 4/1 @ Coral & William Hill

Cheers

John

Hi all,

Well the operation went well. Granted I’m still dosed up with painkillers and I get tired easily but at least I have started to walk about, and the pain does lessen each day. In all truth I can’t wait to get back to a more normal routine but it’s still my intention to ease myself back into work.

The 2018/19 British NH season ended at Sandown on Saturday. Although over the Irish Sea there’s still five days of top class racing to complete with the Punchestown Festival which starts on Tuesday.

My enforced absence means I’ve had a chance to sort my tracker out and I have removed all the jumps horses, apart from a few a few possible runners at Punchestown, to solely concentrate on the flat.

Here a few eyecatchers from the recent Craven & Greenham Meetings and another couple from action over the Easter Weekend.

Let’s begin by looking at the two eyecatchers from the Greenham Meeting.

Last Week’s Horses to Follow

Friday 12^th April

Newbury

Kaloor, trained by Brian Meehan, had caught my eye when putting in a strong finish to win on his racecourse debut, over a mile at Salisbury back in October.

Making his seasonal reappearance over 1m 4f on Newbury’s Friday’s card. The colt was held up, ridden three out he ran on nicely all the way to the line to finish third. Although he never looked like he would catch the two that finished in front of him.

He was blowing after the race which suggests the run was needed and he would also have preferred a sounder surface. The way the son of Nathanial finished of his race showed that he should also appreciate a step up 1m 4f or further. It’s early days but he already looks like a St Leger horse to me. I’m sure trainer Brian Meehan will have been delighted by the horse’s effort. He has a nice prospect on his hands that’s for sure.

Saturday 13^th April

Newbury

History Writer, trained by David Menuisier, just the one win from ten starts but the gelding remains capable of winning more races. Best performance last year came when winning a 1m, Class 3 handicap at Sandown last August. The 4-year-old ended last season with a ¾ length 4^th at Newmarket off his present mark of 91.

Returning from a winter gelding operation in the Spring Cup. He raced like the run was needed. Employing the usual hold up tactics he was still well behind coming to two-furlong mark but started to make some good headway from out of the pack. Granted his effort slightly flattened out inside the final furlong, but he still ran well to finish 7^th of 26.

Should be all the fitter for this reappearance and looks a horse that’s a head of the handicapper and can be placed to advantage in the coming weeks.

Tuesday 16^th April

The first of three days of high class racing that took place at Newmarket.

Newmarket

Ice Lord, trained by Chris Wall. The 7-year-old holds no secrets from the handicapper, but he’s won his fair share of races during his career having had 5 wins from 25 runs on turf, including 5 wins from 15 runs 8 placed over 6f. Ended last season with a win at Doncaster at the end of October. This was the geldings first start since that win and He showed here that he remains on a competitive handicap mark off 3lb higher.

Held up, he was making his effort on the stands rail two furlongs out but couldn’t get a clear run and his jockey had to wait for a gap to appear. Once in the clear he was finishing off his race as well anything

Another who will be all the better with this race under his belt as he’s 0 wins from 6 runs 2 placed when returning form, a 121+day layoff.  He’s ground versatile having won on going from soft to good to firm. Four of his five career wins have now come over 6f and having had 2 or 3 runs in the previous 90-days with form figures 1121 since switching to his present trainer.

Wednesday 17^th April

Newmarket

Ojooba, trained by Owen Burrows. The filly was well backed sent off 2/1 on her racecourse debut. The well-bred daughter of Dubawi whose related to three horses who gained Racing Post Ratings (RPR’s) between 111 to 119. She looked the best of field, appearance wise, before the 7f fillies’ maiden race. 

She wasn’t given a hard race and ran on nicely enough to grab 3^rd in the shadow of the post. Given her strength in the market before the race she’s a highly regarded filly who can win races with more experience.

The way she finished her race off suggests another furlong will suit the 3-year-old and her full brother Muntazah won two-Group 3 races over a mile on the dirt at Meydan in February/March.

The Corporal, another trained by Chris Wall. The 3-year-old, a 20,000gns purchase out of the Aidan O’Brien stable had four starts as a juvenile putting in his best performance when 3^rd of 15 in a Naas maiden on his third start.

Gelded over the winter the son of Dansili made a highly encouraging first start for trainer Chris Wall in the 1m handicap on day two.  A bit keen in the early stages of the race and sent off a very unfancied 66/1. He didn’t have the clearest of runs when making his effort two out and eventually finished a 5 ½ length 7^th of 14 behind winner Aweedram.

Bred for 1m 2f and possibly maybe better with more juice in the ground than he faced at Newmarket. He’s been dropped 2lb for this effort. His trainer looks to have a horse whose capable of winning a race or two this season at a modest level.

Thursday 18^th April

Newmarket

Electrical Storm, trained by Saeed Bin Suroor. The son of Dubawi, a half brother to Group 1 winner Ribchester, made a highly promising racecourse debut in the 5f novice stakes on day three. He was a shade slowly away from the stalls and was probably a bit unlucky not to make a winning debut. He made steady headway but didn’t get the best of runs twice in the final two furlongs. Despite this he looked like he had the race won when taking the lead inside the final furlong, but he was headed on the line by another Godolphin owned runner Well Of Wisdom.

He’s clearly a sharp juvenile but he’s bred to be an even better colt over an extra furlong. The form of the race looks worth following as the first three home were well bred newcomers. He will surely win a race like this before moving into better company. He already looks a potential Royal Ascot 2-year-old.

Abel Handy, trained by Declan Carroll, could be a well handicapped horse if he bounces back to his best this season. The 4-year-old won the Group 3 Cornwallis Stakes at Newmarket as a juvenile. Not at that level of form as a 3-year-old but he wasn’t disgraced when a 3 length, 6th of 21 in the Portland Handicap at Doncaster last September

He started this season off a 7lb lower mark than in the Portland and looked too well handicapped to ignore on his return in the 5f handicap that concluded the Craven Meeting.

He was well backed before the off, sent off the 5/2 favourite. He was shade keen in the early stages, always up with the pace, he ran well for a long way and eventually finished 4^th of 11, beaten just 2 ¾ lengths at the line.

The handicapper has dropped the gelding a further 2lb on the back of this run which Is a bonus.  This run should have taken the freshness out of him and he will probably head to York for a sprint handicap at next months Dante meeting.

Friday 19^th April

Bath

Fearless Warrior, trained by Ralph Beckett, a son of Sea The Stars had looked like a horse who would do better as a 3-year-old than a juvenile. The colt won on his third attempt as 2-year-old when winning over 1m 2f at Kempton last September. Before finishing runner-up in a Newmarket nursery handicap a month later.

Making his seasonal return, after a 177-day break, in a Class 2 handicap over an extended 1m 3f at Bath. He was slowly away and always playing catch up. Allowed to find his feet he was bought into the race the slowly and grabbed third place in the final few strides.

Trainer Ralph Beckett has yet to hit form this season so in the circumstances this was a decent effort. He shapes like a real stayer who can improve further for a step up to 1m 4f+. Handicapper has put him up 3lb for this run, but he remains a work in progress in handicaps and with this race under his belt looks capable of better in staying handicaps.

Saturday 20^th April

Kempton

Rawdaa, trained by Sir Michael Stoute, who first ran as a 3-year-old last summer. Improved with racing on her five starts last season, winning a Newmarket novice on her second career start and ended the season with decisive win in a 1m 2f fillies handicap back at Newbury in October. The daughter of Teofilo had looked a filly worth following in her second season.

The 4-year-old returned from a 196-day break over a mile in the Listed Snowdrop Fillies Stakes. Held up as she had been at Newmarket, but she wasn’t able to really get into the race from the rear. Making good headway in the final two furlongs she was keeping on best of all on the outside to take 3^rd in the final few strides.

Will come on for this run and a step up in trip. This ground versatile filly should be placed to advantage by her trainer, who’s made a good start the new season, in the coming months.

That’s all for now. Fingers crossed there will be a few selections from Punchestown next week, all building up to Guineas weekend.

Cheers

John

Hi all,

Day two of the Craven Meeting. I have some selections from there and two eyecatchers running at Cheltenham and Beverley.

Newmarket

1:50 – bet365 Handicap (Class 2) – 6f

A typically open 3-year-old handicap with 11 declared to go to post.

Heading the bookies early bird list is Breath Of Air trained by Charlie Hills and ridden by Ryan Moore. Just the three starts but he improved for each start last season. Ending the season with a third placed effort in Listed race at Doncaster. Prior to that had put racecourse experience to good use when beating recent Greenham winner Mohaather at Newbury. That win came on good to soft and even with overnight watering it will be different underfoot conditions. Could easily win this but at the prices I can leave him.

The filly Chapelli showed she had trained on from two to three when second at Pontefract 8-days ago. Needs to improve again to win though.

Yousani represents Kevin Ryan who is having his first run since a wind-op and a gelding operation.  Could well improve further for those two procedures but probably does need to. Not raced for 217-days but did win his first starts as a juvenile, so should be fit enough.

Richard Hannon saddles a pair of contenders in Moyasser & Naughty Rascal. The latter won two of his first three starts but disappointed on his nursery debut when 9^th of 14 at Newbury. He wanted to go quicker than his jockey in the early stages of the race and would probably have preferred to have led. After the race his trainer opined that he also wanted suited by the rain softened ground. Moyasser is another who has had a wind-op over the winter. The colt won at Chelmsford on his third start as a juvenile and improved to finish close-up in two valuable nursery handicaps on his last two starts of 2018. Both those runs came on good to firm so he should be fine on the ground. Up 10lb without winning either of his last two starts but the top-weight remains on a competitive mark.

Moyasser – 13/2 @ Bet365

3:00 – Connaught Access Flooring Abernant Stakes (Group 3) (Class 1) – 6f

Brando bids for a hat trick in the race and he has 6lb in hand of his rivals on official ratings. With three who like to get on with it he could get the race run to suit.  His chance is clear for all to see.

Dreamfield made an impressive seasonal reappearance at Ascot last season at Ascot. That win came after a 567-day break, so he clearly goes well fresh. He followed that performance up  when finishing runner-up in the Wokingham Handicap, before finding Group 1 company a bit hot in the July Cup. He has to be respected on his best form of 2018.

Gifted Master won a valuable C&D handicap here last May and then went onto win the Stewards Cup at Goodwood later in the season. He really like the Rowley course having won five of his nine runs and finishing runner-up on two other occasions. No concerns with quick ground for him either as he’s won six of his thirteen starts on good to firm. At his best when able to lead. He probably won’t get an uncontested lead here, with Sir Thomas Gresham and possibly Dreamfield both liking to be up there, but if he does, he’s a hard horse to pass. Has the benefit of run at Meydan which should have blown the cobwebs away!

Gifted Master – 11/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

5:20 – The Sir Michael Stoute trained Karnavaal is plenty short enough in the betting at around 4/1. The son of Dubawi shaped with real promise when 4^th of 14 here back in September before winning a Chelmsford novice race over 7f the following month. A win as a juvenile was a bonus as he’s bred to get `1m 2f as three-year-old and his sire’s progeny often improve for going 1m 2f+ in their second seasons.

The colt has been given a handicap mark of 82 which looks more than workable given he should progress further when going over a longer trip. Steps up to a mile today but a bit further could well be optimum trip as the season progresses.

Karnavaal – 4/1 – Gen

Cheltenham

4:25 – First Assignment – Looked a progressive staying handicap hurdler in the autumn when winning twice here in Oct/Nov on good ground. The 6-year-old then went on to finish 3^rd to Paisley Park, beaten less than 2 lengths at Haydock. Has plenty to find with Tobefair on their running in the Pertemps Series Final here last month but the better ground will suit him more today and a conditional jockey takes off a handy 7lb.

First Assignment – 15/2 @ Bet365 or 7/1 – Gen

Previous Eyecatchers Running Today

Cheltenham

3:15 – Jenkins – 12/1 @ William Hill & Ladbrokes – Didn’t look a natural over fences. Returns to hurdling and the blinkers that heralded a return to form early in 2018 replace cheekpieces he’s been wearing on his last two starts. Each way claims.

Beverley

4:00 – City Tour – 6/1 @ Bet365 or 11/2 @ William Hill & Coral –  I will be disappointed if the 3-year-old can’t defy his 3lb rise in the ratings for his recent Musselburgh success. Much better drawn today and has a great chance on going he won on last time.

Cheers

John

Hi all,

A busy few days with Newmarket’s 3-day Craven Meeting starting on Tuesday and there are the final fixtures of the jumps season at Cheltenham on Wednesday & Thursday.

We also have a couple of eyecatchers due to run at Newmarket and Exeter today.

Newmarket

1:50 – Weatherbys TBA Handicap (Class 2) – 6f

Recent Doncaster eyecatcher Green Power runs here. The 4-year-old was 4^th last year in the 3-year-old C&D handicap but he has the benefit of a recent run this time around. Ryan Moore an eyecatching booking and the gelding has solid claims.

Tommy Taylor was two places behind Green Power at Doncaster and will also have benefited from his seasonal reappearance. His usual cheekpieces remain off as at Doncaster. Trainer Kevin Ryan likes to target this meeting and is 7 winners from 14 runners 50% + 27.25 A/E 2.97 11 placed 79% with his runners in races over 5f or 6f. He also won this race in 2016.

Ed Walker who won this race last year saddles a couple of live contenders in Blackheath & Desert Doctor. The former is making his seasonal reappearance. He won on firm ground at Salisbury in July and ended last season with a second placed effort back at the same track in October. Up 2lb and up two notches in class. Needs to have improved over the winter to win. Desert Doctor has been running with credit on the all-weather. A six-time winner on the synthetics he’s 0 from 6 on turf but did finish one place ahead of Green Power here 12 months ago and races off the same mark here.

Verdict: I can’t leave Green Power out and I also like the claims of Tommy Taylor and Desert Doctor.

Green Power – 13/2 @ Bet365 or 6/1 – Gen

Tommy Taylor – 8/1 @ Bet365 & Coral

Desert Doctor – 9/1 @ William Hill & Coral

2:25 – bet365 European Free Handicap (Listed Race) (Class 1) – 7f

Just seven are declared to go to post for this year’s renewal which sadly means no each-way option. The John Gosden trained is colt Azano is the one to beat on his second placed effort to Saturday’s Greenham winner Mohaather in the Horris Hill Stakes. He faces much faster ground here today but does have a 2,000 Guineas entry.

The Richard Hannon trained Kuwait Currency is a contender. The trainer is 2 winners from 5 runners 40% +23.63 3 placed 60% with his runners in the race. The colt will probably be better over a mile but if they go a decent gallop, he can out run his odds in the first-time tongue tie.

Kuwait Currency – 7/1 @ Ladbrokes & Paddy Power

3:35 – Lanwades Stud Nell Gwyn Stakes (Group 3) (Fillies) (Class 1) – 7f

This year’s race has attracted a field off 11 fillies and on paper it doesn’t look the strongest of renewals of this 1,000 Guineas Trial.

Come On Leicester, trained by Richard Hannon, has to prover her stamina for 7f and needs to have improved from two to three to win here. Could easily out run her odd, on ground that suits and has each-way claims.

Come On Leicester – 33/1 – Gen – each way

Exeter

2:40 – Nelson’s Touch – An eyecatcher back in December when runner-up at Sandown on heavy ground. The 6-year-old looked a progressive handicap hurdler that day but has disappointed on both starts since. Probably doesn’t want the ground too quick but worth noting he did win on good ground at Uttoxeter last May off 6lb lower. Returns from a 59-day lay off and if he can reproduce his early season form here has a good each way chance. Fingers crossed all the runners stand their ground and he’s worth a final chance here at what look generous odds.

Nelson’s Touch – 14/1 @ Paddy Power – each way

Cheers

John

Hi all,

Sunday April 14th

Well a much better Saturday than the previous week. Two winners courtesy of the Dan Skelton stable at Ayr. Which should really have been three but for Solomon Grey making a slight error at the last.

Usually for a Sunday there’s no big race action either side of the Irish Sea. So there are no selections today.

As you I should be undergoing surgery on Thursday but I will try to get last weeks horses to follow out on Wednesday evening.

Cheers

John

Hi all,

A tremendous days racing whether you like jumps or flat you have plenty to go at today. I will begin Saturday’s betting preview by looking at a fantastic Scottish Grand National card from Ayr.

Saturday April 13th 2019

Ayr

1:25 – Scotty Brand Handicap Chase (Listed Race) (Class 1) 2m ½ f

It takes a brave punter to oppose a Dan Skelton horse at this meeting and he has the likely favourite in Azzuri whose having his first run since a wind-operation and by-passed Aintree on account of the soft ground. Must have a big chance here and looks well handicapped. It’s arguably not the strongest ever renewal of the race. Trainer is now 5 winners from 9 runners 55% +12.50 with his handicap chasers at Ayr that were in the first three in the betting.

Azzuri – 3/1 – Gen

1:55 – J & D Pierce Novices Champion Handicap Chase – 3m

It could be another winner here for Dan Skelton with Molly The Dolly. The mare is 2 wins from 3 runs since going chasing won her first two starts at Aintree(good) and Uttoxeter (good to soft) before disappointing on soft ground at Newbury back in December. This is her first start for 115-days but her form figures when returning from a 90+day break are 1311.

Molly The Dolly – 5/1 @ Paddy Power

3:35 – Coral Scottish Grand National Handicap Chase (Grade 3) (Class 1) – 4m

Irish raider Crosshue Boy has been backed in from 33/1 to 12/1 this week. The 9-year-old put up a career best when beating Dingo Dollar by a length in the 3m novices handicap chase on this card 12-months. At the revised weights there shouldn’t be much between the pair again. It just depends who improves for the step up to 4m.

The first three in the 3m 2f Grimthorpe Chase re-oppose here Chidswell beat Dingo Dollar and Brian Boranha that day. The winner has 7lb more to carry today and at the revised weights both the second and third can get closer to the Nicky Richards trained runner today. Of the three the one most likely to appreciate this 4m distance is Brian Boranha. The 8-year-old is just 5lb higher than when winning the 3m 5f Durham National by 9 lengths on good ground back in October,  The step to a marathon trip really suited him and after the race his trainer Peter Niven told the Racing Post: “This was the plan for a long time and I think he’ll make a Scottish National horse”. At around 25/1 he looks good each-way value.

Big River, trained by Lucinda Russell was sent off the 5/1 favourite for the Rehearsal Chase at Newcastle last December. The 9-year-old was still travelling well enough when falling at the 10^th. He was then given a confidence booster over hurdles at Carlisle 16-days later. Not seen out again until the 3m 1f Ultima Handicap Chase at the Cheltenham Festival. He was badly out paced coming to the 13^th but was finishing the race off strongly coming two out and ran on to finish 4^th of 24, beaten just 6 ½ lengths. The gelding shaped like a real stayer that day and went into the notebook as a type who would appreciate the 4m of the Scottish Grand National. The only slight worry would be the good ground, he won over hurdles and a NHF race on good early in his career but his best form over fences has come on soft or heavy.

Big River – 10/1 @ William Hill & Ladbrokes

Brian Boranha – 33/1 @ Paddy Power -each way – (paying 6 places 1/5 odds) or 25/1 @ William Hill each way – (paying 6 places 1/5 odds)

4:10 – Solomon Grey, trained by Dan Skelton, was an eyecatcher when finishing second in the Lanzarote Handicap Hurdle at Kempton 91-day ago. That performance was a career best and came on good ground, so the 7-year-old has his underfoot conditions once again here. Up 5lb since Kempton but looks the one to beat with his trainer being in such good form at the Festival already.

Solomon Grey – 7/2 – Gen

Newbury

3:15 – MansionBet Spring Cup Handicap (Class 2) – 1m

Plenty in with a chance here. As you would expect from a 27 runners handicap.

Circus Couture would go close if replicating his 3^rd placed effort in last season’s Royal Hunt Cup. Frankie Dettori is an eyecatching jockey booking 5 wins from 13 rides 38% when teaming up with trainer Jane Chapple-Hyam. 

Humbert, one of two David O’Meara trained runners was fancied for the Lincoln Handicap on his debut for the trainer. He ran no sort of race at Doncaster, but he was runner-up in this race last year off 2lb lower and should appreciate the softer ground.

Another Batt has a tough task under top weight but has each way claims. He was 6^th in the Lincoln and must be respected on his close up 4^th of 20 to Sharja Bridge in the valuable Balmoral Handicap at Ascot back in October.

Exec Chief, put in career best when beaten just ½ length in the Spring Mile at Doncaster 14 days ago. Up 5lb for that effort demands more from the 4-year-old but he still looks to be improving, he would have preferred an easier surface at Doncaster and is 2 wins from 2 runs at Newbury.

Another Batt – 20/1 @ Bet365 – each way – (paying 5 places ¼ odds)

Exec Chief – 8/1 @ William Hill

5:35 – Frontispiece, is having his first start for Amanda Perrett since moving from the Sir Michael Stoute stable. The 5-year-old was a bit quirky for his previous trainer, but he won first time up in 2016 & 2017 and was runner up last year, so he goes well fresh, His best three performances on Racing Post Ratings also have come on soft ground over today’s distance. His new trainer is 2 winners from 5 runners 40% + with stable switcher’s in handicaps in the past two seasons. First time up could be the time to catch him and he must be considered an each-way contender.

Frontispiece – 14/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes – each way – (both paying 4 places 1/4 odds)

Cheers

John