Category: Victor Value

Hi all,

We have three recent eyecatchers running on Friday. One is drinking in the last chance saloon but the other two still looking capable of winning races.

I also have a selection from the Curragh and one running at Haydock which didn’t get listed as an eyecatcher after it’s handicap debut at Newmarket recently. Well you can’t add everything but he looks interesting today.

Let’s begin with the latter two selections

Curragh

6:35 – A 7f Premier Handicap. The one I like most is the David Marnane trained Freescape. The 4-year-old two career wins have come on the all-weather and he’s 0 win from 9 runs on grass. That latter stat only tells have the story. The trainer thought he was worthy of running at Meydan over the winter and he ran two good races out there on turf, including finishing a close-up third to Mubtasim over today’s trip before finishing a 1 ¾ length fourth to another Godolphin runner in a mile handicap.

Granted fitness must be taken on trust as he hasn’t run for 85-days but if he’s fully tuned up, is capable of a bold show, if his low draw isn’t an inconvenience.

Freescape – 20/1 @ Paddy Power – each way

Haydock

5:00 – Bulllington Boy – The 3-year-old showed a glimmer of promise on one his three starts as a juvenile, that glimmer came here over C&D on his second run (Heavy).

Making his seasonal return and handicap debut 8-days ago. He ran his best race so far when a 2 ¾ length 6^th of 10 behind the useful Migration at Newmarket.  An unfancied 33/1 he didn’t get the best of runs on a couple of occasions between the final two furlongs but was staying on well enough all the way to the line. It was good to firm and Newmarket so it seems he can effective on quick ground.

Trainer Jane Chapple-Hyam hasn’t had many runners in Haydock handicaps but those she has sent to the course have gone well – 3 winners from 7 runners 43% +5 4 placed 57%.

With eight declared runners, I think Bullington Boy looks worthy of at least each way support.

Bullington Boy – 11/2 @ Coral & BetVictor

Recent Eyecatchers Running

We have recent eyecatchers racing at Haydock & Goodwood.

Haydock

3:20 – Revich – The 3-year-old’s sole career win came over 7f at Chester last summer he made promising reappearance at Chester 16-days ago dropped back too 6f. That was his first run since an off-season gelding operation. Should be fitter for his Chester run and warrants plenty of respect even though he may be better off at a little further.

Revich – 8/1 @ Paddy Power – each way

Goodwood

3:30 – Kaloor – Had made such a promising seasonal reappearance at Newbury but finished a well beaten last of seven behind the impressive Sir Dragonet in the Chester Vase 16-days ago. Maybe it was the track or the ground but surely that run was to bad to be true. Trainer Brian Meehan opts for the first time cheekpieces today which suggests something more than just the track or going was amiss last time. I will give him one more chance returned to a more conventional track and on better ground. However, he does face some interesting, unexposed colts in this 1m 3f Listed race.

Kaloor – 16/1 @ Ladbrokes & Coral

4:05 – Green Power – The 4-year-old made a good seasonal reappearance when 4^th of 17 at Doncaster and then built on that run when beaten just two necks in to third at Newmarket. The step up 7f of the Victoria Cup didn’t suit the gelding and the return to sprinting will be more to his liking. Andrea Atzeni who rode the horse at Doncaster return to the saddle. A lot better can be expected from him today.

Green Power – 11/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

Cheers

John

Hi all,

Some good racing today. The first of three days racing down at Goodwood and this evening it’s the best evening card of the racing calendar at Sandown with the highlights being two Group 3 races & two listed races. I have selections from both meetings.

Goodwood

2:35 – Just the nine go to post for this 7f Class 2 handicap but there are five or six strong contenders. The top two in the weights, both making their seasonal appearances are on winnable marks based on their best form. Zhui Feng was beaten just a neck in the Victoria Cup on his first start of 2018, off 1lb higher. Trainer form is a slight concern. Makzeem, trained by Roger Charlton, whose horses seem to be hitting form and he must be respected. He’s a bit of a 7f specialist, 2 wins from 8 runs over the distance.  Good to firm ground would be a slight concern as his best form seems to have come with some ease in the going.

Likely favourite Game Player is even more of distance specialist. All three of his career wins have come at 7f. The 4-year-old seemed to appreciate the slight drop in class when running out a comfortable of a Class 3 handicap at Lingfield 20-days ago. Up just 5lb in the weights and looks capable of going close again if the track doesn’t inconvenience.

Love Dreams won this race last year off 5lb higher and showed again two starts back his liking for the track when runner-up over C&D. Comes into the race after finishing a respectable 4^th of 14 at York. He ticks the boxes marked going course & distance, is handicapped to win but could have competition for the lead.

George Of Hearts is a frustrating horse. Plenty of latent ability but hard to win with. The 4-year-old was tried in the first time cheekpieces when 13^th of 26 in the Victoria Cup. Gets the first-time blinkers today and he’s dropped down to a winnable mark. Interesting to see that trainer Richard Hughes has booked Silvestre De Sousa for the ride – 1 win from 4 rides for the trainer. Comes with risks attached but he has form at the track and will be better suited by the going than he was at Ascot.

Verdict: Game Player is a solid favourite and will take the beating if in the same form as last time. George Of Hearts comes with risks attached but Silvestre De Sousa is an eye-catching jockey booking and the first-time blinkers could be the key.

George Of Hearts – 7/1 @ William Hill & Ladbrokes – each way

Sandown

8:10 – I have been waiting for the Andrew Balding trained Bell Rock to run ever since his win in a Newmarket 7f novice 211-days ago. Today’s 1m distance should bring out more improvement in the son of Kingman. Trainer also has a solid record in Group & Listed races at Sandown 6 winners from 20 runners 30% +18.98 10 placed 50%. The colt is clearly highly regarded and holds a Group 1 St James Palace Stakes entry.

Sir Michael Stoute is another trainer, with an even better record with 3-year-olds, in Group & Listed races at the course – 9 winners from 29 runners 38% +2.08 13 placed 54%. He saddles Sangarius who makes his seasonal reappearance here.  The colt won his first two starts as a juvenile before finishing 4^th of 8 to Too Darn Hot in the Group 1 Dewhurst Stakes. The son of Kingman races in the first-time tongue tie but looked a very useful juvenile who could make up into a top-class 3-year-old. Like Bell Rock he’s another to hold a St James Palace Stakes entry.

Verdict: Bell Rock is an exciting colt for Andrew Balding and Sangarius still has the potential to be a high class 3-year-old. At the prices I will take a chance on the former.

Bell Rock – 8/1 @ Bet365 & Betway – each way

8:40 – The Whitsun Cup a Handicap over a mile with a field of ten declared to go to post.

Recent Newbury eyecatcher History Writer takes his chance. The 4-year-old returns to the C&D and the scene of his only career win so far.  Needs a good even pace to chase and should get it. Trainer David Menuisier runners are in better form now 2 winners from 5 runners 40% +2 in the past 14-days. If jockey Jason Watson gets the gelding in a decent position, I can see him winning this.

Kitaabaat won over C&D as a juvenile but was well behind History Writer here last August. The 4-year-old has been gelded and makes his seasonal reappearance today. Just the seven career starts and could easily defy his current mark off 88 sometime this season.

Jamie Osborne had a winner at Kempton on Wednesday evening, and he saddles Lush Life here. The filly was steadily progressive last season winning two of her four starts. Returned from a 186-day break to come from last to almost finish snatch second at Windsor 17-days ago. Jockey Jamie Spencer wasn’t hard on the 4-year-old and she should improve for that run.

Greenside won that Windsor race finishing 2 lengths ahead of Lush Life and is just 3lb worse off. He had the benefit of race fitness that day and may struggle to confirm that form with the Osborne runner.

Data Protection won a Class 5 handicap over C&D last August (good to soft) before dead heating for first at Newmarket later that month. Not as good on four subsequent starts last year but that means he’s just 1lb higher than for his Newmarket win. First start for 202-days but the 4-year-old wasn’t disgraced on his seasonal reappearance last year. Nicola Currie who’s won twice on the horse return to the saddle. Will need a career best to win this but could get into the places.

Verdict: Data Protection can get into the money on his return to action, but Lush Life and History Writer look to have the better win claims and are hard to split

Lush Life – 9/2 @ Ladbrokes & Paddy Power

History Writer – 5/1 @ William Hill & Ladbrokes

Cheers

John

Hi all,

Not long now to Derby & Oaks Weekend. But before all the action on the Epsom Downs. On Thursday Sandown hosts the best evening racing of the season with the Brigadier Gerard meeting with two Group 3’s and two Listed races. That same afternoon it’s day one of Goodwood’s three-day May festival which also includes the annual Goodwood Food Festival so tasty action both on and off the track.

On Saturday there plenty of racing both sides of the Irish Sea. Magna Grecia bids to do the English/Irish 2,000 Guineas double at the Curragh.

At Haydock It’s the Group 2 Temple Stakes over 5f. Battaash, looks set to return action in the race and could face Nunthorpe winner Alpha Delphini and the mare Mabs Cross.

York hosts its first Saturday card with feature race being the, the 1m 6f, Group 3 William Hill Brontë Cup.

The big race action continues the Sunday with the highlight being the Irish 1,000 Guineas at the Curragh.

However, as ever let’s look back to last weeks action first and those horse’s worth adding to your trackers.

Last Week’s Horses to Follow

Three days on the Knavesmire provided us with a few horses to follow.

Wednesday 15^th May

York

Corgi, trained by Hughie Morrison. The 4-year-old had run better than his final position of 6^th in last year’s Melrose Handicap suggests.  Over the winter he had a wind-op and a gelding op. Both seemed to have worked as he made an encouraging seasonal reappearance to finish 3^rd of 18, beaten 2 ½ lengths behind First Eleven. His run can be slightly marked up as he made his effort down the stands side and the two who finished in front of him made their efforts on the side of the track.

Trainer Hughie Morrison was talking about the Ebor handicap as possible target for the horse later in the season. Whatever his fate in that big race he can pay his way this season and should be all the better for this run.

Aljady, trained by Richard Fahey, came in to the 6f handicap with the most unexposed of profiles having won two of his four starts last season. Steadily progressive as a 3-year-old he ended last year with a career best when beaten just a length at Ascot in October. Returning from a 222-day lay off and a gelding operation. He was doing all his best work at the end of the race to finish 3^rd of 21.

The form of last weeks looks strong and given he would have found 6f at York a shade quick for him there should be more to come as the season progresses over stiffer 6f. There should be valuable sprint handicap in the gelding in the coming months, with the Wokingham Handicap at Royal Ascot looking an ideal race.

Thursday 16th May

York

Now a couple of horses that I mentioned in Monday’s Daily Punt Blog Post.

Eeh Bah Gum, trained by Tim Easterby. The 4-year-old was well placed by his trainer to win four races in the early part of last season on quick ground between May & June. Was well beaten on his seasonal reappearance in a hot handicap at Musselburgh but he did show some good speed out wide from a poor draw. 

This was a much-improved performance from Musselburgh for the gelding when 4th of 21 behind stablemate Copper Knight. He loves quick ground, all his best performances have come on good or quicker ground, which he got here. His wide draw probably didn’t help as he was away from the pace. The Epsom Dash could be an ideal race for the 4-year-old if the going is on the quick side. A race He’s a best priced 20/1 with BetVictor & Betfred.

When he gets top of the ground he can placed to advantage by his shrewd trainer.

Bless Him, trained by David Simcock. The 5-year-old has changed ownership but remains with trainer David Simcock. He missed the break by 3 or 4 lengths and at the finish was beaten just over 4 lengths into 7^th in the Hambleton Handicap won by What’s The Story.

This was the horses first run since last August and an off-season gelding operation so connection should be encouraged by this run especially given his poor start from the stalls. Granted he hasn’t won since landing the valuable Britannia Handicap at Royal Ascot as 3-year-old, but he’s gradually dropped back down to a competitive mark and the handicapper has dropped him a further 1lb for this run.

I’m sure he can win a mile handicap this season off this sort of mark. He was beaten 5 ½ lengths in last years Hunt Cup, off 6lb higher, and no doubt that race will be agenda again.

Friday 17^th May

York

Moss Gill, trained by James Bethall. The 3-year-old was making his handicap debut what looked a workable mark off 74 in this 5f handicap. The son of No Nay Never looked like he would run the race when skipping a couple of lengths clear of the field at the furlong mark. However, he probably paid the price for chasing the strong early pace and was just caught in the shadow of the post and had to settle for second.

The handicapper has raised him 4lb for this run, but he should remain on a competitive mark. But This was a much-improved performance from the gelding who can be placed to a win handicap at this level in the coming weeks.

Newbury

Buckland Boy, trained by Charlie Fellowes, had finally got off the mark at the 8th attempt when winning at Thirsk 18-days ago. His win was more notable for the fact that he was slow away from the stalls but still went onto win by 1 ¼ lengths. After that race his jockey told the Racing Post that the horse would prefer a more galloping track.

He got the right sort of track at Newbury on Friday but once again he fluffed the start like had done at Thirsk. This time he lost at least 15 lengths. He managed to latch onto the back of the field after 4 furlongs. He managed to get into contention two furlongs out and made good headway on the outside, his effort not surprisingly flattened inside the final furlong and he finished 9^th of 15.

Given his earlier exertions to catch up with the rest of the field it was a good run and showed he remains a on a good handicap mark. He can’t afford to miss the start like he did here but when gets off on level terms he will win again. However, not one to take a short price given he could be developing quirks.

Saturday 18^th May

The final three of this week’s eyecatchers come from handicap races at Newmarket & Thirsk.

Newmarket

Dominus, trained by Brian Meehan, had won a 7f novice race at Goodwood on his previous start. Dropped back to 6f for his handicap debut the 3-year-old improved again to run useful sprint handicapper Dazzling Dan to ½ length at the finish.

The drop back to sprint distances clearly worked for the son of Zoffany. The lightly raced colt is improving with racing and can win a sprint handicap in the coming months on the evidence of this run.  The handicapper has raised him 3lb but he remains on a competitive mark.

Rio Ronaldo, trained by Mike Murphy, can be hard to win with as he needs to be produced as late as possible to win his race. The 7-year-old had made a low-key seasonal reappearance at Ascot 17-days earlier, but this was a much better effort to get within a neck & a nose of Daschas in the 5f handicap. He’s been known to be slow away from the stalls but as he showed here if he gets off on level terms, he’s on a winnable mark.

A stiff 5f like at Sandown & Salisbury brings out the best in him but a sharp 6f, twice a winner over that distance at Windsor in the past, also suits

He’s a well handicapped sprinter at Class 4 level and will win again when all the cards fall right.

Thirsk

Al Erayg, trained by Tim Easterby, has previous as he went into my tracker after an eyecatching first start for the trainer at Chester last September.

The 6-year-old only ran up to that Chester form once in five subsequent starts last autumn. That came when beaten only ½ length into 3^rd in a Class 2 handicap at Musselburgh in October.

The gelding had put in a decent seasonal reappearance when 5^th of 12 back at Chester, from a wide draw six days earlier.

They went no real gallop in the early stages of this 7f handicap and the race developed into more of 3f sprint to the line. There had been plenty of money around for the gelding prior to the race and he was sent off the 4/1 second favourite.

He did well to finish, a 2 ½ length 5^th of 10 considering being held up wasn’t the place to be given the slow early pace of the race.

The market support suggests connections think their horse is on a winnable mark, dropped a further 1lb by the handicapper, and indeed he now races off 10lb lower than he started last season off.

Another who probably needs all the cards to fall right in his race but when they do he can win a handicap at this level.

Cheers

John

Hi all,

I wasn’t expecting to have any selections/eyecatchers running until Thursday. However, I have had a good look at 1m 3f Class handicap at Kempton on Wednesday evening and there’s one i like.

Kempton

7:55 – There are plenty of inform contenders in the field but the one that catches my eye is Koeman, trained by Mick Channon. The 5-year-old returned from a 267-day break to finish a 3/4 lengths third to Baghdad at Newmarket in a Class 2 handicap 17-days ago. Drop backs to 1m 3f here but the previous C&D winners needs to win this if he’s to get into the Duke of Edinburgh Handicap at Royal Ascot. At the prices he looks the value of the front five in the betting.

Koeman – 11/2 @ William Hill & Ladbrokes

Cheers

John

Hi all,

Rather unusually for a Monday there are a fair few recent eyecatchers running today.

Carlisle

2:45 – Proud Archi – 12/1 @ Ladbrokes –Well handicapped and interesting that he drops back to sprinting today. Trainer form a concern 0 winners from 21 runners 2 placed in the past 14-days

4:45 – City Tour – 7/2 @ Paddy Power – Disappointed at Beverley 33-days ago but can bounce back here.

Windsor

7:00 – Vegas Boy – 7/2 @ Ladbrokes – Previous C&D winner, competitively handicapped if he builds his on his Ascot second 10-days ago.

7:00 – Victory Angel – 7/2 @Ladbrokes – Too well handicapped to ignore but will the track suit him?

Leicester

8:45 – Fearless Warrior – 4/1 @ Paddy Power – Stiffer track should suit and capable of more improvement but wouldn’t want the race to be tactical. Trainer Ralph Beckett is 6 winners from 26 runners 23% +17.38 in 3-year-old handicaps at the course with runners that were racing within 45-days of their last run.

Above prices are best available on Oddschecker at the time of posting

Cheers

John

Hi all,

I almost forget but there are three recent eyecatchers running today at Ripon.

Ripon

3:35 – Takumi – 15/8 @ William Hill & Coral – Improving 3-year-old and 6lb rise for his recent Goodwood success shouldn’t stop him today.

4:20 – Just Hiss – 8/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes – The front runner can go close if the going isn’t too quick. I have a feeling today won’t be the day but still he’s at a price that’s worth taking.

4:20 – Fennaan – 10/1 @ William Hill & Ladbrokes – Was doing his best work at the finish when 5^th of 16 in the Thirsk Hunt Cup 15-days ago. Well handicapped when all the cards fall right. Stall 7 could be better and I’m not sure Ripon will suit his hold up style. Still can’t ignore with trainer’s horses going well.

Cheers

John

Hi all,

A good end to what turned out to be a solid & ultimately profitable week. As Dazzling Dan bravely held on to win at Newmarket and recent Ascot eyecatcher Daschas did the business at the same track.

Nothing from me today.

I will be back on Wednesday for Sandown’s big evening meeting and will hopefully get this week’s notebook out to you on Tuesday.

Cheers

John

Hi all,

With York’s Dante Meeting in full swing at the time of writing this week’s notebook. I don’t have the time to my normal review of previous week’s big meetings.  This week it’s just the horses for the tracker.

On Saturday’s it’s Lockinge Day at Newbury with the one-mile Group 1 Lockinge Stakes the feature race. There’s also the competitive London Gold Cup Handicap among a good set of supporting races. There are also competitive looking cards at Newmarket and Thirsk.  That said this weekend isn’t one of the strongest of the spring/summer. Well given the last few weeks a short breather is to be welcomed and gives us a good chance to take stock with the Derby & Oaks just two weeks away.

As ever let’s begin this week’s notebook by looking back to last week’s eyecatchers, of which there are six, and one ante-post bet for the St Leger.

Last Week’s Horses To Follow

Wednesday 8^th May

Chester

Revich, trained by Richard Spencer. The 3-year-old made an encouraging return to action after a 215-day absence when running on 5^th of 13 in the 6f handicap won by Lihou.

Slow away from the stalls form stall 8 he was always on the back foot from then onwards. He was dropped in and made his effort out widest of all in the straight. Only beaten 2/ ½ lengths at the finish connections will have been pleased with the gelding’s effort in the circumstances.

The geldings sole win from nine career starts came when making all at Chester over 7f last summer, off 4lb higher. Looks on a competitive mark and can win race or two this summer.

Penwortham, trained by Richard Fahey, put in his best run of the season when finishing well from off the pace to grab 5^th on the line in the 7f handicap won by Gossiping. Only beaten 3 ½ lengths, the 6-year-old’s run can be slightly marked up as he was a bit slow away from stall 10.

The handicapper has dropped the gelding another 2lb after this run and he’s now 2lb below his last winning mark which also came here. Yet to run on going worse than good ground and his best performances have come on a speed favouring course with three of them coming here at Chester over 7/7 ½ f. Back to a winnable mark and can win again on a sounder surface.

Norway, trained by Aidan O’Brien, was not match for stablemate Sir Dragonet in the Chester Vase. The colt was very weak in the betting before, sweated up badly before the start. He wasn’t suited to the soft ground like Sir Dragonet was that’s for sure and just plugged on to finish second to the impressive winner.

Sporting first time cheekpieces he’s surely better than this run. The son of Galileo will strip fitter for his seasonal reappearance and will welcome a return to a sounder surface. He shapes like a stayer and more of a St Leger than a Derby horse. The 25/1 available with Bet365 about his chance in the final classic of the season looks to tempting to ignore.

Thursday 9th May

Chester

Camacho Chief, trained by Michael Dods, wasn’t the quickest away in the 5f handicap won by Merhoob. The 4-year-old was always on the back foot from then onwards but made some decent headway inside the final furlong to finish 5^th of 9^th.

The gelding was an improving sprinter last season winning at Carlisle & Leicester before running well in defeat when runner up in a big field York handicap in October and 5^th of 22 at Doncaster.

No great record fresh, his Chester run was his first for 194-days, he will be sharper for this run and a return to a more conventional track will be in his favour. Has won on good & soft going but wouldn’t want the ground too fast. There are sprint handicaps in him this season.

Friday 10^th May

Chester

Cleonte, trained by Andrew Balding. The Chester Cup turned into a slog in the mud and not many got into the race.

One of those who didn’t get into it was the well fancied Cleonte. The 6-year-old has put in a career best when third in the Group 3 Sagaro Stakes at Ascot 9-days earlier but never got into the race after being slightly hampered early in the race and just stayed on into a never nearer 6^th.

The soft ground also probably didn’t suit last year’s Cesarewitch third. He should remain competitive on long distance races as the season progresses.

Ascot

Vegas Boy, trained by Jamie Osborne.  The 4-year-old travelled well and looked like he would catch the leader and eventual winner Louie De Palma. He just couldn’t get past and had to settle for a ½ length second at the finish.

His two performances on Racing Post Ratings (RPR’s) have now come over 6f at Ascot. Given he won on good to firm last season the soft ground and he’s best runs until now had come on a sound surface this will have pleased connections on just the gelding’s second start of the season.

Handicapper has put him up 2lb for this run but he remains on a competitive mark especially when he gets a sounder surface to race on again.

Saturday 11th May

Ascot

Kaeso, trained by Nigel Tinkler, was backed at big prices from 33/1 into 14/1 for the Victoria Cup. The 5-year-old didn’t let his backers down either as he ran a cracking race to finish 3^rd of 26 and was only beaten ½ length by the winner Cape Byron.

The handicapper has raised him 3lb for this excellent effort but he’s still only 3lb higher than his last winning mark and despite his age it doesn’t look like his improvement has quite levelled out just yet.

He certainly seemed to enjoy the rain softened ground and his trainer stated after the race that he’s a better horse with some juice in the ground. He has three career wins on good and one good to firm but at the level I doubt he would want too quick. He can win again this season.

The Victoria Cup form is usually worth following and this year’s race shouldn’t be any different.

Cheers

John

Hi all,

Well a nice winner courtesy of Magnetic Charm at 7/1 and couple of big priced each way efforts from Mildenberger & Alfie Solomons means that the Dante Festival has ended in a steady profit for the service. To follow on from a profitable three days at Chester’s May Festival last week,

As I mentioned in the weekly notebook it’s a quiet one on Saturday and Sunday doesn’t hold much attraction. That said Newbury does host a Group 1 with Lockinge Stakes and a decent supporting card, including the London Gold Cup Handicap.

Newbury

3:00 – Al Zubarah London Gold Cup Handicap (Class 2) – 1m 2f

A valuable handicap for 3-year-old’s only. Traditionally a race where the form is usually worth following.

Trainer Roger Charlton has had 3 winners from 3 runners +11.50 in the race in the past decade. That record means his runner Headman needs respecting. Trainer has struggled for winners on the turf this season but did have a winner at Bath on Wednesday. He looked a potential pattern horse when winning on his racecourse debut at Newcastle back in November before finishing second at Kempton. The son of Kingman pulled to hard on his seasonal reappearance on soft ground over C&D and could only finish 6^th of 9 to King Ottokar. Top weight of 9-7 is going to be tough to defy but he’s capable of more progress and holds a Group 2 entry at Royal Ascot. The better ground should suit and he has to be on the shortlist given the trainer’s record in the race.

With a race like this you need a trends “hotspot”. Six of the last ten winners of the race had previously one over today’s 1m 2f distance – 6 winners from 23 runners 26% +33.75 11 placed 48%. Six of todays fifteen declared runners have done so.

One of them is the ante-post favourite Solid Stone who won a Newmarket handicap 32 -days ago. He improved for the step up in distance last time and although he’s been raised 6lb he’s an improving colt. He holds a Group 2 King Edward VII Stakes entry at Royal Ascot 

War Tiger was runner-up to Solid Stone that day, beaten just ½ length and gets a 1lb from the winner here. Highly regarded by trainer Richard Fahey and there shouldn’t be much between the pair again. He looks to have decent each way claims.

Another distance winner is the Andrew Balding trained Good Birthday.  An improving juvenile he made a winning seasonal reappearance and handicap debut at Doncaster at the Lincoln Meeting. He’s up 8lb here but is another improving colt very much on an upward curve.

Mark Johnson won this race last years with Communique and he saddles last time out Bath winner Sky Defender. He made almost all that day but showed a good battling attitude to rally when headed two furlongs out, to win by two lengths. It was stamina that won that race and the further they went the better he looked. No problem with quick going for the son of Farhh either. Up 4lb in a much better race but he’s unexposed over this sort of distance and shouldn’t be underestimated.

Sinjaari, raced with promise on his one start for Ed Dunlop last season. Was second to a subsequent handicap winner at Redcar for new trainer William Haggas last month. Before improving to go one better when winning a 1m 2f maiden at Windsor, 19 days ago.  The son of Camelot took that maiden in good style and looks to be on a workable for his handicap debut off 89.

Verdict: Sinjaari is a lot shorter in the betting than I expected. Sky Defender and War Tiger have each – way claims for the North. Headman has to be respected given his trainer’s record in the race. However, at the prices I’m siding with Newmarket winner Solid Stone.

Solid Stone – 5/1 @ Ladbrokes & Coral

3:40 – Al Shaqab Lockinge Stakes (Group 1) – 1m

Over the straight mile and a big field of 14 are declared to go to post for the race.

If you fancy the favourite Le Brivido the stats for the market leaders won’t put you off the Aidan O’Brien trained runner. As favourites are 7 winners from 11 bets +7.03 in the past decade.

Again, looking for a trend’s hotspot. Seven of the last ten winners had won at Group 1 level – 7 winners from 13 runners +11.28 which leaves a shortlist of Laurens, Without Parole, Accidental Agent, Billesdon Brook and Romanised.  Of those the likeable Laurens looks the strongest contender.

Le Brivido has been very lightly raced since finishing a short head runner -up in the 2017 French 2,000 Guineas and going onto win the Group 3 Jersey Stakes at Royal Ascot when trained by Andre Fabre. Just the one run last season and returned for his new trainer when 3rd in a Group 3 at Naas 35-days ago. Lightly raced and capable of more progress this season over a mile. He shades it for me but this is a very open race.

Le Brivido – 5/1 @ Paddy Power & BetVictor

5:25 – Petrus has come on leaps and bounds for an off-season gelding operation. Winning the Spring Mile at Doncaster before being produced almost on the line to win at Bath 29-days ago, off 3lb lower. The runner-up at Bath Salute The Soldier is 1lb better off for a short-head defeat but I fancy Petrus can confirm with him again. With the Denis Coakley horses running well it would be foolish to rule out a big run from Hors De Combat. A fast-paced mile suits the 8-year-old and he’s 3lb below his last winning mark. Each way claims if the first time cheekpieces bounce him back to life.

Hors De Combat – 16/1 @ William Hill – each way (paying 4 places 1/5 odds)

Petrus – 11/2 – Gen

Newmarket

3:15 – Yousini was runner-up in a C&D handicap 31-days ago. He was a shade unlucky in the run that day and looks capable of going close off 3lb higher. Moraawed and Dazzling Dan were first & second at Doncaster 22-days ago. Only a head separated the pair that day but the runner-up gets 2lb now and was arguably a shade unlucky as he tried to make all in a strong head wind and was only run down by the eventual winner in the final 50yds. He remains on the upgrade and looks the value bet here. If he was trained by one of the big Newmarket trainers rather than Pam Sly he would be vying for favouritism with Moraawed.

Dazzling Dan – 6/1 @ William Hill & BetVictor

Recent Eyecatchers Running on Saturday

There are two recent eyecatchers running today and both look to have solid claims in their respective races.

Newbury

4:50 – Sea Of Faith – 9/4 @ Ladbrokes & Coral

Newmarket

5:35 – Daschas – 7/2 @ Bet365 & William Hill

Always check with an odds comparison service like Oddschecker to get the best prices available.

All selections win only unless indicated as each way.

Cheers

John

Hi all,

York Dante Festival – Day 3

The final day of three excellent days on the Knavesmire.

1:50 – A Listed race for 2-year-old fillies over the minimum 5f.

Clive Cox won this race in 2013 his sole runner in the race in the past 10-years. He saddles last time out Nottingham winner Lady Fanditha. The daughter of Kodiac was well backed to make a winning racecourse debut 17-days ago. The going was good to soft that day but after the race her trainer told the Racing Post; “I was a bit concerned about the easy ground and although Lady Fanditha  coped I know she’ll be a lot better on a decent surface”. This race was also named as a target. Open to further progress on a sound surface.

Lady Fanditha – 8/1 @ Bet365 & William Hill

2:25 – Trainer William Haggas was a shade unlucky with his filly Frankellina in the Musidora on Wednesday. He can gain some compensation with Magnetic Charm here. The daughter of Exceed And Excel won on her second start as a juvenile last August and ended last season when a 2 ½ length 4^th in the 1m Group 2 May Hill Stakes at Doncaster. Returns to action here, stays a mile and likes a sound surface. Clerisy, trained by Sir Michael Stoute won a 7f Newmarket maiden 30-days ago. The daughter of Kingman, a half-sister to Expert Eye should get a mile and acts on a sound surface. Probably didn’t beat much at Newmarket and this a tougher assignment but she’s open to further progress and has a Group 1 entry at Royal Ascot.

Magnetic Charm – 11/2 @ William Hill

3:00 – Hard to look beyond Champion Stayer Stradivarius here, even on his seasonal return. However, if the eight stand their ground it may pay to have an each-way investment on previous eyecatcher Mildenberger. The four-year-old has shaped with promise on both this season’s starts and was runner-up to Roaring Lion in last years Dante. Looks like he will improve for the step up to 1m 6f and could be the one to chase home the favourite.

Mildenberger – 16/1 @ Bet365 & BetVictor – each way

3:35 – Despite 12 going to post for this Class 2 handicap. The race lacks a bit of depth.

Lucius Tiberius has run two decent races since joining Charlie Appleby but doesn’t look to have much in hand of the handicapper although did win a decent handicap at Leopardstown for his previous trainer off 1lb lower. No issues with the distance or quick ground.

Abe Lincoln has the blinkers back on today which looks a positive and Ryan Moore has been booked. Plenty of ability but is 0 wins from 5 runs on turf. Trainer had a winner at York on Thursday.

Mistiroc was a close-up third in the John Smith’s Cup over C&D back in 2017, off 7lb higher. He seemed to bounce back to form when a good second to Fujaira Prince at Doncaster 20-days ago. Silvestre De Sousa is an eye-catching jockey booking for the 8-year-old.

UAE Prince, trained by Roger Varian was a place behind Mistiroc in that York race. Hasn’t won since but has run some good races in defeat in better races since then. Can win this off his present mark and deserves to head the betting but at 2/1 looks plenty short enough to me.

William Haggas saddles Big Kitten. Both the 4-year-old two career wins have come on the tapeta at Newcastle. The gelding put in career best when runner-up at Chelmsford 15-days ago, off 3lb lower. On a competitive mark and has just had goes on turf both with soft going the going description. On pedigree shouldn’t have any problem with quick turf. Another with solid enough claims if as good on grass as he is on the synthetics.

Verdict: UAE Prince looks the one to beat but at the prices the steadily improving Big Kitten who is unexposed on turf and looks on a competitive mark if he’s as good on grass as the all-weather. Mistiroc looks one for the places if building on his recent Doncaster second and Lucius Tiberius is handicapped to go well on his best Irish form.

Lucius Tiberius – 9/1 @ William Hill & Bet365

Mistiroc – 12/1 @ Ladbrokes & Paddy Power – each way

4:35 – A 5f handicap for three-year-olds. A few lightly raced and unexposed horses here who could prove better than their marks.

Tenax a winner of a good ground Tipperary maiden last year when trained by Joseph O’Brien. The 3-year-old has been steadily progressive on his two starts since joining the Nigel Tinkler stable. Was beaten just half a length into third by the progressive Leodis Dream, who’s since won at Sandown & Chester, at Thirsk on his first start and then ran just as well when runner-up at Nottingham 17-days ago. Ryan Moore is an eye-catching jockey booking for the gelding who looks capable of going close.

Alfie Solomons, just the one win from nine starts as juvenile. But he was runner-up in a 14-runner nursery at Goodwood and occupied that place over C&D in valuable sales race at the Ebor Festival. Ran well to the final furlong on his seasonal reappearance at Newmarket 30-days ago and should be better for that run. The return to York is interesting and he has each-way claims.

Tenax – 11/2 @ William Hill

Alfie Solomons – 14/1 @ William Hill – each way (paying 4 places 1/5 odds)

5:05 – Another 3-year-old only handicap this time over 1m 4f.

Skymax won a Newmarket nursery over 1m 2f on his final start last season and shaped that day like he would improve for 1m 4f.  Good chance even off top weight of 9-7 and 5lh higher in the weights. Sir Michael Stoute is 3 winners from 6 runners 50% + 16.5 with his runners here in 3-year-old only handicaps over 1m 2 ½ f to 1m 4f since 2015. He saddles last time out Leicester novice winner Laafy. The colt really enjoyed the fast ground and the step up to 1m 2f. Steps up to 1m 4f which he should stay and looks on a very workable mark of 83 for his handicap debut.

Verdict: Two potentially decent 3-year-old handicappers in Skymax & Laafy who are tough to split. Laafy has the benefit of a recent run and just edges it for me.

Laafy – 7/2 @ Bet365

Recent Eyecatchers Running

York

3:00 – Mildenberger

Newbury

4:55 – Guildhall – Didn’t build on the promise of his Doncaster reappearance at Salisbury but shaped like he needed further than 1m 2f. Today’s extra furlong is a positive and the trainers runners going better now.

Always check with an odds comparison service like Oddschecker to get the best prices available.

All selections win only unless indicated as each way.

Cheers

John