Category: Victor Value

Hi all,

An excellent Sandown card for Coral Eclipse Day. Meanwhile up at Haydock it’s Old Newton Cup and the Group 2 Lancashire Oaks. It’s at the latter course that I start today’s betting preview.

Haydock

3:15 – bet365 Old Newton Cup Handicap (Class 2) – 1m 4f.

A maximum field of 17 have been declared to go to post for this historic middle-distance handicap.

The lightly raced Al Muffrih is having just his 6th career start. Last time out the gelding won the 1m 2f Zetland Gold Cup at Redcar in the first-time hood. After his win that day jockey Danny Tudhope told the Racing Post that the horse “probably needs a mile and a half”. The son of Sea The Stars is bred to get today’s trip but has been a bit of a hard puller in the past which could mean his optimum trip remains over slightly shorter.

First Eleven, trained by John Gosden, won a valuable handicap at York over today’s trip back in May. The top-weight is up 5lb from York, but the form of the race is strong and there are no stamina doubts with the 4-year-old.

At an each-way price Koeman trained by Mick Channon needs respecting. The 5-year-old was beaten just ¾ length into third behind Baghdad at Newmarket on his seasonal reappearance off 5lb lower. He then was doing all his best work at the finish when runner-up at Kempton over 1m 3f. Granted his more exposed than the two other mentioned but can usually be relied upon on to give his running in these big field handicaps. Was only 7th in last years renewal but he’s a better horse now. There looks like there should be good pace to chase and that will suit, as will the likely good to firm ground.

Indianapolis is another capable of going well at a big odds. He looked a sure-fire future winner when finishing a four length 6th behind First Eleven at York. The 4-year-old gets a 6lb pull with the Gosden runner although he did slightly disappoint when only 8th 0f 14 at Ayr 14-days ago. The one furlong drop in trip should suit the gelding who didn’t seem to stay last time. A more patient ride like he received at York should see him on the premises at the business end of the race.

Verdict: Of the two at the head of the market I just favour the claims of Al Muffrih. While Koeman looks capable of getting into the places.

Al Muffrih – 9/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

Koeman – 16/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes – each way – (Paying 5 places 1/5 odds)

Sandown

1:50 – Coral Charge (Group 3) – 5f

The Aidan O’Brien trained Sergei Prokofiev could well be suited by the stiff 5f he faces here. A Listed winner at Navan on his seasonal reappearance the 3-year-old was the 4th of 11 in the Group 3 Palace House Stakes on his next start before disappointing on rain softened ground in the King Stand Stakes at Royal Ascot.

He just heads the market from recent York Listed winner Garrus whose having his first start for Charlie Hills since switching from Jeremy Noseda.

The fast ground loving Muthmir was 4th in this race in 2017 and was beaten just a neck in last years race. The 9-year-old isn’t as good as he used to be but showed he remains capable of running well when 5th of 19 in the Epsom Dash on his seasonal reappearance.

Muthmir – 6/1 @ William Hill & Bet365

2:25 – Coral Challenge – 1m

A valuable handicap Class 2 handicap that has attracted a field of 14 runners.
Lush Life has a wide draw in stall 14 to overcome but is only 3lb higher than when winning over C&D starts ago. She failed to make the cut for the Hunt Cup but the filly looks a progressive handicapper from the Jamie Osborne stable.

Salute The Soldier has won two of his last six starts and was caught on the line by one of today’s rivals Petrus at Bath two starts back. He was too keen when sent off the 7/2 favourite for a valuable Newbury handicap 49-days ago. Ultimately well beaten by Bredan there but his jockey wasn’t hard on him when his chance had gone that day and better can be expected from the 4-year-old.

Petrus meets Salute The Soldier on 1lb worse terms today he’s better judged on that performance than his poor run in the Hunt Cup at Ascot on rain softened ground that wouldn’t have suited him. A fast pace, on quick ground will suit the 4-year-old but trainer Brian Meehan is only 1 from 20 in the past 14-days which is a slight concern.

Bredan has only been put up 2lb for his Newbury win and remains a live contender.

Mojito is the most interesting runner. The 5-year-old was a progressive handicapper in July/August 2017 winning three handicaps on the trot, including here over 7f. This is his first start for 637-days, but he remains on a competitive mark, if he’s overcome what kept him off the track for so long.

Verdict: A tricky puzzle for which Lush Life looks a major contender if stall 14 doesn’t prove an inconvenience. Plenty have each-way claims including Salute The Soldier and Petrus with a slight preference for the former. Mojito returns from a long absence and the booking of Frankie Dettori is an interesting one.

Lush Life – 8/1 @ William Hill & Coral

Mojito – 7/1 @ Bet365

3:35 – Coral-Eclipse (Group 1) – 1m 2f

This year’s renewal of this great race, which brings together the classic generation with the older horses, see the return to action of Arc heroine Enable. Despite the drop back to 1m 2f she remains the one they all must beat. Trainer John Gosden won this race last year with Roaring Lion and also with Nathaniel in 2012 who like Enable was making his seasonal return in the race.

Of her rivals Dante winner Telecaster could bounce back from a very poor run in the Derby and prove he’s true Group 1 horse rather than an average winner of the York race who just outstayed Too Darn Hot. It’s only his 5th career start and he’s got place claims in a race which plenty of his rivals also have question marks to overcome.

Verdict: Despite the drop back to 1m 2f, it’s hard to look beyond Enable for win purposes. Telecaster has each-way claims in what doesn’t look the strongest renewals of the race.

Telecaster – 14/1 @ Bet365 & Paddy Power – each way

Cheers
John

Hi all,

Just to let you know I got back a few hours ago. There are no selections today but normal service will resume for Saturday’s action.

Cheers

John

Hi all,

A busy few days with three days racing at Newcastle culminating in Northumberland Plate Day on Saturday. Meanwhile across the Irish Sea Thursday sees day one of the three-day Irish Derby Festival at the Curragh.

I’m away for a week’s holiday in Rhodes from Friday, after the intensity of Royal Ascot it’s a good opportunity to recharge the batteries, but I will be back to cover Coral Eclipse Meeting at Sandown.

Besides today’s selections, I have also included a few for Friday & Saturday.

Thursday – June 27^th

Newmarket

4:25 – Makazeem has put in some of his best performances here and on the Rowley Course. The 6-year-old won this race in 2017 and was a close-up 5^th in last years Bunbury Cup over C&D. Returned from a 299-day absence to be an encouraging 5^th of 9 at Goodwood 35-days ago. He’s dropped a further 2lb and is down to a winnable mark. Seems ground versatile but his two best RPR’s have come on good to soft going. Ryan Moore who’s ridden the selection to 2 of his 3 wins is back in the saddle.

Makazeem – 6/1 @ Ladbrokes & William Hill

Curragh

6:45 – Ming – The 4-year-old remains open to improvement over today’s 1m 4f distance.Twice a winner at Gowran Park and Navan last year he was highly tried after. He returned from a 113-day break to finish 6^th of 18 here over 1m 2f. He was doing his best work at the finish last time and looks worth a go today’s distance. His best form has come on good to firm ground so the sounder the surface the better his chance.

Ming – 7/1 @ William Hill & Ladbrokes

7:45 – Hathiq – An impressive winner over C&D two starts back. The 5-year-old was then sent off the 7/2 favourite for the Epsom ‘Dash’ 26-days ago. He was never really travelling that day and eventually finished a well beaten 17^th of 19. He’s better than his Epsom run and although he’s 8lb higher than for his impressive win here he looks capable of a bold show if stall 1 isn’t too much of an inconvenience.  Duke Of Firenze was unlucky in the run in the ‘Dash’ before finishing 7^th. He’s since gone to finish runner-up at Doncaster on ground that would have been plenty soft enough for the veteran. The stronger pace and big field will suit him better than at Doncaster and he remains a well handicapped horse on his back form. Connection will be hoping the ground continues to dry out.

Hathiq – 7/1 @ William Hill & Ladbrokes

Duke of Firenze – 9/1 @ William Hill

Friday June 28^th

Curragh

6:25 – Magnetic North – The 4-year-old relished the good to yielding going when winning at navan 20-days ago. He’s been raised 4lb for that win but he’s going the right way and can defy this new mark if there is some juice in the ground.

Magnetic North

Newcastle

6:35 – Foolaad, has been in good form on the turf this season winning over 6f at Doncaster back in March and last time out, ran Copper Knight a length when 2^nd of 21 in valuable 5f handicap at York 43-days ago. The 8-year-old has gone well here in the past and his last five form figures at the course are 34112. Should give his running again and has each way claims in an open looking race.

Foolaad – each way

Newmarket

9:00 – Setting Sail – The 4-year-old wasn’t disgraced when 4^th of 11 in a valuable handicap at the Epsom Derby festival 28-days ago. The ground would have been plenty quick enough that day for him and if the ground doesn’t dry out too much, he can be competitive here.

Setting Sail

Saturday – June 29^th

I won’t be tipping up in the Irish Derby, but I think Anthony Van Dyke can confirm Derby form with Madhmoon & Broome and land the Derby double.

Newcastle

3:00 – The Northumberland Vase, is the Plate consolation race. My fancy here is the progressive staying handicapper Carnwennan. The 4-year-old form figures this year are 211. A winner at York over 2m ½ f two starts back he followed that with a win at Chelmsford 33-days ago. The handicapper has raised him 4lb for that win and if he handles the new surface looks capable of landing the hat trick.

Carnwennan

3:35 – The Northumberland Plate – Gibbs Hill, trained by Roger Varian has been the big ant-post gamble of the race and bids to defy a 724-day absence. It will be some training achievement if he does. Withhold was the easy winner of this race last year and even off 8lb higher must be high on the shortlist.  Red Galileo ended a long losing run when winning over 1m 6f at Newmarket. He benefitted from the first-time hood last time and if the headgear works for a second time the 8-year-old won’t be far away. Speedo Boy was runner-up in that Newmarket race. He gets a 5lb pull for 2 ¼ lengths and there shouldn’t be much between the pair again. Bartholomeu Diaz is a much better horse on the tapeta than turf – 3 wins from 4 runs 4 placed with form figures 1121 (0 wins from 8 runs on the grass). The last of those wins came here over 1m 4 ½ f. 71 days ago. The 4-year-old stays 1m 6f and if he gets the 2m looks a big player.

Verdict: Gibbs Hill & Withold are major players but at the prices I prefer Red Galileo & Bartholomeu Diaz

Red Galileo – 14/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook – each way (both paying 5 places 1/5 odds)

Bartholomeu Diaz – 14/1 @ William Hill – each way (paying 4 places ¼ odds)

Curragh

4:05 – Port Lions – The 4-year-old put in a career best on RPR’s when winning at Naas 41-days ago. He only 3lb higher if he runs here on Saturday and looks capable of going close if the ground continues to dry out.

Port Lions

6:00 – David’s Charm – The 8-year-old races off the same mark as when runner-up in the Irish Cesarewitch last October. He was doing his best work at the finish when 6^th of 10 at Cork 15-days ago over 1m 4f. The step back up to 2m will suit and if the ground hasn’t dried out to much come post time he looks capable of adding to his sole win on the level.

David’s Charm

York

2:45 – Improving handicap sprinter Flavius Titus could defy the 4lb penaltyhe received for winning at Newmarket 21-days ago.  Sean Davis takes off 3lb negates most of that weight rise which mean the 4-year-old remains on a winnable mark. Soldiers Minute was an impressive winner of a C&D handicap two starts back but ran poorly in the Wokingham Handicap last Saturday. The return to C&D could see the 4-year-old in a much better light. He had 3 lengths to spare over runner-up Wentworth Falls in the York race but that one gets an 8lb pull here.  Justanotherbottle was disappointing on his return to action here over 5f 44-days ago. The step back to 6f will be more in the 5-year-old favour today and he has placed big field C&D form to his name. He’s now dropped down to an attractive handicap mark, being 2lb lower than when short headed in last season Goodwood Stewards Cup. Another tilt at that valuable price could well be on the agenda but he’s got each-way claims here.

Verdict:  Flavius Titus looks capable of landing the hat trick, if York’s 6f isn’t a shade sharp for the improving 4-year-old. Justanotherbottle looks capable of landing a decent pot of his present mark. I have a feeling the Goodwood Stewards Cup could well be his main target, but I think he can get into the places here. It looks worth taking advised ante post prices particularly on Flavius Titus.

Flavius Titus – 7/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook

Justanotherbottle – 20/1 @ Ladbrokes & Coral – each way (both paying 4 places ¼ odds)

All bets win only unless stated each-way

I will see you all next weekend

Good luck with your punting.

Cheers

John

Hi all,

There are two recent eyecatchers running today.

Carlisle

3:30 – Al Erayg – 7/2 – Gen – Looks on a winnable mark in the Carlisle Bell but is plenty short enough in the betting.

Kempton

8:20 – Autumn War – 4/1 – Gen – Shouldn’t have a problem with return to the AW. Better than he showed last time and is on a winnable mark

Cheers

John

Hi all,

Royal Ascot is done and dusted for another 12 months. As ever we witnessed some great moments and performances.

On Saturday It’s Derby day both sides of the Irish Sea. At the Curragh it’s Irish Derby with Anthony Van Dyke bidding to do the Derby double.

Up in the North East of England it’s the Northumberland Plate or as it still affectionately known in that part of the world as the “Pitman’s Derby”. It’s a long time since there were any coal mines up the area but it’s nice to see the history of the race and the people who made it such a special race still being celebrated.

This week’s notebook is a Royal Ascot Eyecatcher Special and there are plenty of them for the trackers.

Royal Ascot Eyecatchers

Tuesday June 18^th – Day 1

Fairyland, trained by Aidan O’Brien, hadn’t been disgraced when 5^th of 15 in the 1,000 Guineas. She failed to see out the mile that day and at the Curragh in the Irish version. Last years Group 1 Cheveley Park winner was dropped back to 5f in the King Stand Stakes and she shaped with promise as a sprinter in finishing 5^th, beaten about three lengths by Blue Point.

The drop back to the minimum trip was always going to be a big ask for the 3-year-old and she was a little outpaced, as could have been expected, but she made some notable headway in the final furlong or so. She just didn’t have the pace of the likes of Blue Point & Battaash but it’s worth noting she was only ¼ length behind the third. The step up to 6f will suit the filly and next month’s July Cup could be an ideal race for her and the 25/1 available with Paddy Power would look value if connections decide to send her to Newmarket.

Latrobe, trained by Joseph O’Brien, has been more hit than miss since causing a bit of surprise when to win last years Irish Derby at 14/1. The 4-year-old hadn’t bee seen at his best on both his starts prior to Royal Ascot.

The rain that fell had turned the ground soft by the time of the Listed Wolferton Stakes which doesn’t really suit Latrobe. Still his 4^th of 16 was a step back in the right direction. He didn’t get the best of passages twice in the final furlong but was staying on nicely to finish less than a length behind runner-up Magic Wand albeit no match for winner Addeybb on this sort of ground.  A return to a sound surface and step back up to 1m 4f looks likely on the evidence of this performance.

Wednesday June 19th – Day 2

Almost Midnight, trained by David Simcock, a winner on his racecourse debut back in January before finishing runner-up, trying to give the winner 7lb at Newcastle. The 3-year-old returned from a short break to win a minor 1m 4f race at Thirsk last month. He was thrown into the deep end in the Group 2 Queen’s Vase but wasn’t disgraced in finishing 7^th.

Sent off an unfancied 50/1, his hold up tactics weren’t suited by the way the race panned up and this effort can be marked up.

The colt’s run hasn’t been ignored by the handicapper who put him up 5lb for this effort. If he returns to handicaps, he should remain very competitive off his new mark. Her should have a nice pot in him before the year is out.

A race like the Hunt Cup always throws up an eyecatcher or two.  Recent Newmarket eyecatcher Stylehunter ran a cracker to finish 4^th. Not the quickest away from the stalls he did well to finish 4^th of 28, beaten 2 ¼ lengths at the line and would have gone close to winning if get a clearer run a furlong from home. The luckless Kynren did best of those who raced on the far side in finishing 5^th.  

Chief Ironside, trained by William Jarvis, is my eyecatcher of the race. He only finished 14^th but he wasn’t suited by the soft ground he faced here. The 4-year-old had run a cracker in finishing 3^rd in the Diomed Stakes on his previous start on quick ground.

A sound surface and a strongly run 1m or 1m 2f look his optimum conditions. The handicapper has nudged him up a further 4lb but if he gets a chance to dominate in his race it’s hard not to think there is nice prize in the colt.

Thursday June 20th – Day 3

Roseman, trained by Roger Varian, ran well in finishing 5^th in the Group 3 Hampton Court Stakes. I think the form of the race will stand up as the season progresses.

The 3-year-old was only having his 4^th career start here.  A winner at Nottingham on his second start back in April.  He had run well to finish runner-up to subsequent St James’s Palace Stakes second King Of Comedy at Sandown on his last start.

Slightly impeded at the start and the seemed to struggle in the rear in the early stages of the race out a bit wider than you would like. The son of Kingman still seemed a shade green and was doing all his best work at the finish of the race. This was a better effort than his final position suggests and there was enough in his performance to suggest he could be a decent horse by the end of the season.

Like the Hunt Cup, the Britannia Handicap often throws up plenty of eyecatchers and this year’s renewal is no exception and I have two:

Awe, trained by William Haggas, a winner of a 7f Newmarket handicap 11-days previously did best of the low drawn runners in finishing 4^th. The son of Bated Breath would probably have preferred a sounder surface and can continue to progress and win races.

Numerian, Joseph O’Brien.  All the colts previous six runs had come on the all-weather at Dundalk and he was making his turf debut here. He was finishing race off well to finish 5^th of 28 and didn’t get the best of runs when making his effort between the final two furlongs. He proved that he handles the grass and looks capable of winning a decent pot on the turf.

Although he hasn’t reached my main eyecatcher list the well fancied King Ademar, who was well beaten at the finish, deserves another chance on quicker ground. Given the support he received in the market he remains a horse on a winnable mark.

Friday June 21^st – Day 4

Eagles By Day, trained by Michael Bell, an impressive winner of a maiden on quick ground at Salisbury back in April. He was then thrown into tougher waters in the Lingfield Derby Trial. He travelled well that day and coming to three furlongs out he looked like he would play a hand in the finish. He didn’t find as much as expected though and eventually finished a well beaten 6^th.  No match for the impressive winner Japan in the Group 2 King Edward VII Stakes but this was a much better effort form the colt in finishing third. The ground wasn’t as soft as he faced at Lingfield which suited him. A step up in distance should suit the son of Sea The Stars who could well develop into a St Leger contender.

Spanish Aria, trained by John Gosden, caught the eye when finishing 10^th of 27 in the Sandringham Handicap. The 3-year-old made some nice headway at the end of the race and there is a handicap in the filly when shes’ dropped back into calmer waters.

A winner at Chelmsford back in November this was just her second start of the season and the handicapper has dropped 2lb. On turf the daughter of Lope De Vega’s best form on turf has come with bit of juice in the ground.

Fujaira Prince, trained by Roger Varian, had put in an excellent performance when finishing 2^nd in a valuable York handicap on his previous start and arguably put in just as good an effort in finishing third here. He didn’t get the best of passages through the race and had to be switched twice in the straight when trying to make his effort.

Lightly raced for his age the 5-year-old the gelding is now 3 wins from 6 starts and he might not have reached the ceiling of his progress just yet. I will be disappointed if there are not more wins in him this season.

Saturday June 22^nd – Saturday

Momkin, trained by Roger Charlton, racing in the first-time blinkers in the Group 3 Jersey Stakes. The 3-year-old had finished down the field in the 2,000 Guineas but prior to that had finished a neck second to Skardu in the Craven. The drying ground on Saturday was in his favour and he was fancied to put in a much better show.

Slow away from the stalls he got hampered two furlongs from home and was never had any chance after that. Jockey Andrea Atzeni didn’t touch him after that.  I’m not saying he would have won without that interference, but he must be a couple of lengths better than he showed here.

Like many of the big handicaps at the meeting the Wokingham Handicap provided two eyecatchers.

Perfection, trained by David O’Meara, won a Newmarket Listed race on her final start for John Gosden back in October. Owners Cheveley Park kept the filly in training as 4-year-old but moved her to David O’Meara.

A promising second in a Group 3 at Lingfield on her stable debut, before running poorly 14-days later at Haydock, that race probably came to quick after a hard race on soft ground.  This was much better from her in finishing in 7^th of 26. She finished less than two lengths off the runner-up and with a clearer passage would surely have gone close to finishing second.

There’s a good sprint handicap in her when all the cards fall right which they didn’t here.  

Vanbrugh, trained by Charlie Hills, only finished 10^th in the Wokingham but he had led the much smaller far side group and that wasn’t the place to be. A winner of 7f conditions race at Thirsk on his seasonal reappearance and first start since moving from Andre Fabre.

Plenty of use was made of him and he still managed to finish within 2 ¼ lengths of the fourth home. Despite his lofty handicap rating there is a race in the 4-year-old with a less aggressive ride than he received here.

Cheers

John

Hi all,

A challenging week’s punting at Royal Ascot has come to an end.

At least we ended on a high note as Cape Byron landed a gamble, from 8/1 into 7/2 favourite, to win the Wokingham Handicap. We also landed some nice each way bets in the same race with 5th, Summerghand 20/1 & 6th, Gunmetal 12/1.

Recent Chester Cup eyecatcher Cleonte kept the winning run going in the final race of Royal Ascot when victorious in the marathon Queen Alexandra Stakes at 7/2, slightly bigger was available in the morning.

Sunday’s racing doesn’t appeal so a busy few days on the betting front comes to an end.

Cheers

John

Saturday June 22nd – Royal Ascot – Day 5

This years Royal Ascot has been a real challenge to say the least. Yesterday I managed to talk myself out of each way bets on Advertise & Watch Me. Let’s hope that we can end it with a profit.

Three recent eyecatchers are running at Ascot today and another five go at Ayr & Newmarket. As ever let’s begin with final Royal Ascot Preview of 2019.

2:30 – Chesham Stakes (Listed Race) – 7f

Aidan O’Brien saddles a couple of live contenders in Lope Y Fernandez who made an impressive winning debut at the Curragh 15-days ago and Year Of The Tiger who wasn’t subjected to hard race when runner-up at the Curragh on the same card should appreciate today’s extra furlong. Sir Michael Stoute hasn’t had a 2-year-old runner at Royal Ascot in the past 10-years. He runs Heaven Forfend who made a promising racecourse debut when runner-up at Newbury 35-days ago. He will improve for that run and is an intriguing runner for the trainer. Stall one is never ideal

Verdict: Lope Y Fernandez looks the most likely winner but around evens I can let him win. Stablemate Year Of The Tiger has each way claims as does Heaven Forfend.

Year Of the Tiger – each way – 14/1 @ Bet365 & Paddy Power

Heaven Forfend – each way – 14/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

3:05 – Jersey Stakes (Group 3) – 7f

The Aidan O’Brien, trained So Perfect is sure to be popular with punters as is Space Blues, trained by Charlie Appleby. Both come into the race on the back of last time out wins. However, runners that had won their last race are underperforming being 0 winners from 49 runners 8 placed 16% – the Exp/Wins for such runners was 4.63.

One positive stat concerns runner’s dropping back from Group 1 company who are 7 winners from 31 runners +46 11 places. Momkin & I Am Superman are the only two to qualifier this year. The former was down the field in the English 2,000 Guineas but is better judged on his neck second to Skardu in the Craven. Needs quick ground but it should continue to dry out and the first-time blinkers are enlisted today. I Am Superman, continues, on the upgrade and arguably put in a career best when 6th of 14th in the Irish 2,000 Guineas.

Verdict: Momkin & I Am Superman have each way claims in an open looking race.

Momkin – 10/1 – each way @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook (both paying 4 places 1/5 odds)

I Am Superman – 22/1 – each way @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook (both paying 4 places 1/5 odds)

3:45 – The Hardwicke Stakes (Group 2) – 1m 4f

Two trainers Sir Michael Stoute & Aidan O’Brien with eight between them have dominated the race in the past ten years and they both have runners this year.

Sir Michael Stoute who won last year’s race with Crystal Ocean is 6 winners from 16 runners 38% +18.05 7 placed 44%

Both Aidan O’Brien winners were 4-year-old’s who had last raced 21 to 45-days previously – 2 winners from 3 runners 67% +4.17.

Defoe won the Coronation Cup on his last start. He got a strong pace to chase at Epsom and if he gets it again is a major player.

Lah Ti Dar was never really travelling in the Coronation Cup. A return to a more conventional track will be in her favour and whilst she does have a question to answer after that run. If she returns to her best, can go close.

Salouen helped to force that strong pace at Epsom and did well to hold on for third. Slight drop in class will suit but he isn’t likely to get an uncontested lead here with Communique in the field again.  Not far away on the figures but is vulnerable from a win perspective.

Southern France is the Aidan O’Brien runner. He was third in last year’s St Leger and put in a career best when runner-up to Stradivarius in the 1m 6f Yorkshire Cup 36-days ago. Didn’t shape last year like he would be at this level over 1m 4f but does fit the profile of an O’Brien winner of the race and needs respecting.

Sir Michael Stoute runs Mirage Dancer who won a Goodwood Listed race on his seasonal reappearance. The 5-year-old was said to have needed the run that and can progress further. He seems to be getting better with age.

All eyes will be on ante-post favourite Masar whose having his first start since winning last year’s Derby. If he’s anywhere near that level of form he’s the one they all have beat.

Verdict: This year’s race looks as competitive as any in recent seasons. Maser looks the most likely winner and even looks a backable price. Sir Michael Stoute’s record means Mirage Dancer needs respecting. Defoe needs a strong pace to chase like at Epsom. He could get it again here and if he does, he will be tough to beat.

Mirage Dancer – 6/1 @ Coral

4:20 – Diamond Jubilee Stakes (Group 1) – 6f

Blue Point won the King Stand over 5f on Wednesday. He’s won over C&D and the drying ground will suit him well. The one they all must beat if this run doesn’t come too quick after such a big effort. Right favourite that’s for sure. However, there are plenty of other live contenders.

Invincible Army has won both his two starts this season, including the Group 2 Duke Of York Stakes last month and has a good chance. Yafta finished 3^rd at York, the 4-year-old could finish a bit closer to the winner on this stiffer track and could run into the money at big odds.

The Tin Man a triple Group 1 winner, has a great record over C&D. He won this race in 2017 and was 4th last year, beaten just 1 ¼ length.  He will be all the better for his Windsor seasonal return and can never be ruled out here. The faster they go up front, the better he goes

French raider City Light was beaten a short head in this race last year. The 5-year-old will have been laid out for this and has a great chance of going one better.

Sands Of Mali made all to win the Group 1 over C&D on Champions Day and was only beaten ½ length into second in the Commonwealth Cup 12 months ago. He doesn’t have much to find with Blue Point on the figures. Clearly likes it here and must be respected. But will drying ground suit others better?

Verdict: There could be a strong pace which could play into the hands of the closers like Invincible Army, The Tin Man & City Light.

The Tin Man – 12/1 @ William Hill

City Light – 8/1 @ William Hill & BetVictor

5:00 – Wokingham Stakes (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) – 6f

Cape Byron won the 7f Victoria Cup here last month and is unexposed over 6f. A strong traveller, the drop back in trip shouldn’t be an issue and the drying ground will play to his strengths.

Hey Jonesy finished 5th of 22, beaten 2 length, in last year’s Commonwealth Cup over C&D last year. The 4-year-old wasn’t disgraced when finishing 5th, on the heels of the first three home in the Duke Of York Stakes last month. A reproduction of last year’s Royal Ascot run would see him go close.

Spring Loaded was 9th in this race last year, beaten just 3 ¼ lengths, but would have finished a lot closer with a better passage. Dylan Hogan takes off a valuable 5lb and the 7-year-old could get the race run to suit.

Summerghand, one of four David O’Meara trained runners, has returned to action with two runner-up efforts at Newmarket. The 5-year-old remains on competitive mark and the trainer did win this in 2017. He’s the choice of stable jockey Danny Tudhope whose had three winners here already this week.

Recent eyecatcher Gunmetal, a useful 6f handicapper last year, had looked handicapped up to his best coming into his last race. However, he was finishing his race off strongly when 4th of 19 at York over 5f. Races off the same mark as at York and Osin Murphy takes over the in the saddle. He’s another who will be suited by coming off a strong pace.

Verdict: There looks to be pace all over the track and it could pay to look for those horses who like to come from off the pace.  It’s the sort of race you can back four in and none of them make the places. My four against the field are, in no particular order, Cape Byron, Gunmetal, Summerghand and Spring Loaded.

Cape Byron – 8/1 @ William Hill & Ladbrokes

Gunmetal – 12/1 – each way @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook (both paying 6 places 1/5 odds)

Summerghand – 20/1 – each way each way @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook (both paying 6 places 1/5 odds)

Spring Loaded – 25/1 – each way – @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook (both paying 6 places 1/5 odds)

5:35 – Queen Alexandra Stakes (Conditions Race) (Class 2) – 2m 5 ½ f

The longest race in the flat racing calendar. Five of the last ten renewals of the race have gone to jumps trainers Gordon Elliott, Willie Mullins or Nicky Henderson. Although, there are two recent eyecatchers running and both Cleonte & Corelli could go close if lasting out this marathon trip.

Not normally a race I take much of an interest in.

Recent Eyecatcher’s Running Elsewhere

Ayr

2:00 – Just Hiss

2:00 – Nicholas T

3:45 – Harome

Newmarket

5:15 – Revich

5:15  – Vegas Boy

Cheers

John

Hi all,

Sangarius got us on the board at Royal Ascot on Thursday and there’s still two-days to turn things around.

It’s the biggest betting day of the week for me.

Friday June 21st – Royal Ascot – Day 4

2:30 – Albany Stakes (Group 3) (Fillies) – 6f

Precious Moments should build on her Curragh runner-up placing and could go well here for Aidan O’Brien.

Sheila Lavery, could have another nice filly on her hands with Lil Grey. The daughter of Starspangledbanner showed a nice change of gear to win at the Curragh 14-days ago. More needed in this company but she won’t be disgraced and looks a shade overpriced.

Simon Crisford & Frankie Dettori combined to win the first here on Thursday. They have a lively contender in Last Surprise who overcame experience to win at Lingfield 17-days ago.  Different track and surface today but there should be more to come from her.

Verdict: Lil Grey looks overpriced and there should be more progressive to come from Last Surprise.

Lil Grey – 33/1 @ Paddy Power – each way (paying 5 places 1/5 odds)

Last Surprise – 8/1 – Gen

3:05 – King Edward VII Stakes (Group 2) (Colts & Geldings) (Class 1) – 1m 4f

Japan is the one they all have beat on his third placed effort in the Derby. But he had a hard race that day and he hasn’t had long to recover from it.

Private Secretary got Frankie Dettori out of a bit of trouble at Goodwood. The colt looked to have been set too much to do but he eventually got up in the final few strides. He wasn’t subjected to hard race that day and looks an ideal sort for this race. Rain softened ground would be a slight concern as he really seemed to enjoy the fast ground at Goodwood.

Private Secretary – 9/2 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook

3:40 – Commonwealth Cup (Group 1) (British Champions Series) (Class 1) – 6f

It could be a big day for Aidan O’Brien and he saddles favourite Ten Sovereigns who will appreciate the drop back to sprinting.

Jash was runner-up to the favourite in last year’s Middle Park Stakes. He returned to action with a fairly comfortable win over 7f at Newmarket last month. He was keen that day and that run should have taken the freshness out of the colt.

Like the favourite Advertise will be suited by the drop back to 6f after failing to stay the mile in the 2,000 Guineas. The first-time blinkers are an interesting addition and he can go well if he handles the softest ground he’s so far raced on.

Khaadem was a good winner at Newbury 34-days. He looked a high-class 3-year-old sprinter in the making at Newbury and comes into the race with 3 wins from 4 runs. Interesting that retained jockey Jim Crowley opts for Jash over Khaadem.

Jash – 5/1 @ Bet365 & William Hill

Khaadem – 15/2 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook

4:20 – Coronation Stakes (Group 1) (British Champions Series) (Fillies) (Class 1) – 1m

This looks the race of the meeting. Just the nine runners but you can give six of them a good chance.

Hermosa, comes into the race having won both the English & Irish 1,000 Guineas. The one they all have to beat on form.

Pretty Pollyanna a high-class juvenile was runner-up in the Irish 1,000 Guineas. She should go close again but I think Hermosa should still have her measure.

Castle Lady & Watch Me were first & sixth in the French 1,000 Guineas. The latter didn’t get the clearest of passages when making her effort inside the final furlong and could get closer here.

Happen a stablemate of the favourite is an interesting contender at big price.  The daughter of War Front won the last of her three starts as a juvenile and began this season when finishing runner-up to Lady Kaya in a Group 3 two starts back. Before coming from last to win a Group 3 over 7f on the line. She shapes like she will improve for today’s extra furlong and is filly going the right way. Not without an each-way chance.

Another interesting runner who’s been well found in the market is Jubiloso, trained by Sir Michael Stoute. Unbeaten on both her two starts, the daughter of Shamardal showed a great turn of speed to easily win at Newbury last month. Open to any amount of improvement and is in the could be anything category.

Happen – 22/1 @ William Hill – each way

Jubiloso – 11/2 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook

5:00 – Sandringham Stakes (Handicap) (Fillies) (Class 2) – 1m

Ralph Beckett & Harry Bentley combined to win yesterday’s Britannia Handicap and they have a good chance of landing this fillies handicap also run over the straight mile with Desirous. She took advantage of a lenient mark on her handicap debut at Goodwood 28-days ago. Up 6lb for that win but she remains open to further progress and remains on a winnable mark.

Hotsy Totsy represents last years winning trainer/jockey combination. She’s won her last two starts and if she stays the mile should go well. 

Magnetic Charm made a winning seasonal reappearance when coming from behind to win a York Listed race over a mile. Despite carrying top-weight of 9-7, I think she’s capable of going well and would be a popular winner for her owner H M The Queen. The drier the ground the better for her.

Desirous – 13/2 @ Bet365

Magnetic Charm – 9/1 @ Bet365 & Paddy Power

5:35 – Duke Of Edinburgh Stakes (Handicap) (Class 2) – 1m 4f

Hughie Morrison is 2 winners from 3 runners +21 in this race in the past ten-years. He saddles York eyecatcher Corgi who finished second, over C&D 12-months ago, just a neck behind the Mark Johnston trained Baghdad in the King George V Stakes. Corgi is 3lb better off at the weights but there shouldn’t be much between the pair again. Both are solid contenders, but Baghdad might be the better drawn of the pair if the higher drawn horses dominate again.

Fujaira Prince finished just one place ahead of Corgi when runner-up at York last month. He’s a lightly raced 5-year-old who’s improving with each race and should go close again.

Ben Vrackie, trained by John Gosden, put in a career best when 3rd of 12 in the Old Rowley Cup at Newmarket on his final start of 2018 and looked the sort to do a lot better as a 4-year-old. First start for 252-days but this race has likely been his target.

Secret Advisor hasn’t run since winning the 1m 6f Melrose Handicap at York 664-days ago. He’s won fresh in the past so I doubt fitness will be an issue. Of more concern would be soft ground, his only poor run came on such going, and stall 1.

Recent Epsom eyecatcher Byron Flyer also takes up his entry. The 8-year-old is vulnerable to any improvers but he’s on a competitive mark. No headgear on either start this year but interestingly trainer Ian Williams opts for the first-time visor today and not the cheekpieces that horse wore last year. The trainer’s record on the flat with handicap runners racing in the first-time visor is 10 winners from 43 runners 23% +65.63 A/E 1.58 18 placed 42%. Likes to be up with the pace but has stall 22 doesn’t make life easy for jockey Mickael Barzalona in that regard. Still he can’t easily be left out of calculations given the use of the first-time headgear.

Corgi – 7/1 @ Coral

Secret Advisor – 16/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes – each way (both paying 5 places 1/5 odds)

Recent Eyecatchers Running Elsewhere

Newmarket

5:40 – Takumi

Ayr

7:40 – Anythingtoday

Cheers

John

Hi all,

Royal Ascot is turning into a bit of a nightmare trying to second guess the weather with more torrential downpours hitting the course on Wednesday.

Three placed efforts going into the final race on day 2. Liberty Beach 4^th, Stylehunter 4th & Kynren 5^th, all landed the each-way part of the bets at double figure odds.  However, we are still waiting for our first winner!

Fingers crossed the weather is set to be mainly dry for the rest for the meeting but who can we really trust the British Weather.

Thursday June 20th – Royal Ascot – Day 3

2:30 – The Norfolk Stakes (Group 2) – 5f

Aidan O’Brien saddles King Neptune and Mount Fuji. The latter is the choice of Ryan Moore and the Dark Angel colt won on his racecourse debut at Cork 29-days ago. He’s open to further progress than his stablemate and should go well. The stable have now had two juvenile winners at the meeting.

Sunday Sovereign, trained by Pat Twomey is the bookies ante-post favourite after impressive wins at the Curragh and Tipperary. However, favourites don’t have a great record in the race in the past ten years – 0 winners from 11 runners 3 placed while second and third favourites are performing much better than market expectations.

Real Appeal, trained by Matthieu Palussiere, made it 3 wins from 4 runs when winning Maisons-Laffitte Listed race 20-days. He’s now in new ownership. The colt’s form is as good as any on offer but he’s vulnerable to any improvers in the field. 

Verdict: Given the likely going not a race to get to carried away but Mount Fuji can give his backers are run for their money.

Mount Fuji – 9/1 @ Coral & BetVictor – each way – (paying 4 places 1/5 odds)

3:05 – The Hampton Court Stakes (Group 3) – 1m 2f

Anything trained by Sir Michael Stoute needs noting.  Look for horses rated 103+ and are first or second in the betting.

Sir Michael saddles Sangarius who made a pleasing seasonal reappearance to King Of Comedy at Sandown last month. The slightly easier ground could well suit the colt and he’s got to be high on the shortlist.

Ante post favourite is the Aidan O’Brien trained Cape Of Good Hope. The colt was 4th of 15 in the Prix Du Jockey Club, last time out. He drops into Class 3 company and looks the one that all must beat. However, soft ground would be a big concern.

King Ottoker so impressive at Newbury two starts back ran poorly when only 4th to Sir Dragonet in the Chester Vase. Didn’t seem to stay 1m 4f at Chester so the drop-in trip will be in his favour. He’s better than his Chester run and needs respecting on ground that will suit.

Verdict: I hope the going doesn’t dry up too much as far as King Ottoker is concerned. It may also pay to have a saver on Sangarius who might not want it to soft.

King Ottoker – 6/1 @ Bet365 & Paddy Power

Sangarius – 8/1 @ William Hill & Ladbrokes

3:40 – Ribblesdale Stakes (Group 2) (Fillies) – 1m 4f

Looking at the key trends. Irish trained winners have won the race six times. A low draw is a definite advantage as is a top five position in the betting.

Aidan O’Brien has won three of the last ten renewals of the race, including last year with Magic Wand. He has supplemented recent Oaks third Fleeting in the race and that filly will take all the beating on form.

John Gosden saddles four of the eleven declared runners. Frankie Dettori has opted for recent Newbury third Star Catcher. However, the best of the Gosden runners could turn out to be Sparkle Roll. The filly had impressed when winning at Sandown on her seasonal reappearance. She was then sent off the 7/4 favourite for the Musidora at York. Sadly, for her backers she ran well below par in finishing 7th of 10. The daughter of Kingman is surely better than her York form where she might have been unsuited to the quick ground. The step up to 1m 4f and some ease in the ground will hopefully see her in a better light.

Verdict: Fleeting will be tough to beat if she replicates her Oaks form. But with the ground on the soft side I’m happy to take a chance that Sparkle Roll can bounce back to form after her York disappointment.

Sparkle Roll – 22/1 @ Bet365 – each way

4:20 – The Gold Cup (Group 1) – 2m 4f

Last year’s winner Stradivarius is the one they all have to beat on known form. Which of his ten rivals can give him a race?

Dee Ex Bee, trained by Mark Johnston won the Group 3 Sagaro Stakes here last month and has since gone onto win at Sandown. He looks the most likely to dethrone the Champion Stayer if he stays the extra 4f of today’s race. Has form on soft ground.

Aidan O’Brien’s recent record in the race- 4 winners from 10 runners 7 placed – means his runners need respecting. He runs three in Capri, Flag Of Honour, & Cypress Creek.  Capri had some smart middle-distance form to his name and was 5th to Enable in last year’s Arc. His 3-year-old form was top-class, winning the Irish Derby in 2017 & the Doncaster St Leger that year. He has run poorly on both his two starts this season, but this race has likely been the target. Flag Of Honour is the choice of Ryan Moore. He won last year’s Irish St Leger and has finished runner-up to Magical on his three starts in 2019 over an inadequate 1m 2f. Cypress Creek looked a stayer when winning a Naas Group 3 over 2m last September. He’s been down the field over in adequate trip on both this season’s runs. This marathon trip could unlock further improvement in the colt but needs to on form.

French raider Call To The Bar showed his wellbeing when winning a 1m 7f Group 2 at Longchamp 25-days ago. The 5-year-old looked a good stayer in the making when finishing runner-up in the Group 1 Prix Royal-Oak at Chantilly last October. Stamina for 2m 4f must be proved but if he can settle early, he should be fine over the trip. Needs the favourite to underperform to win but appeals as a good each way contender on ground that will suit.

Verdict: Dee Ex Bee could really put up to Stradivarius on soft ground. At the prices I’m going each way on French raider Call To The Bar.

Call To The Bar – 20/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook – each way

5:00 – The Britannia Stakes (Heritage Handicap) – 1m – (straight course)

The first of two competitive handicaps that conclude day three. A field of 32 three-year-old’s go to post and most of them have plenty scope for improvement.

Looking at the key trends in the Race Advisor Royal Ascot Guide. Two positive trends seem to be weight and career runs:

Weight: 8-9 to 9-1 – 8 winners from 142 runners 23 placed

Career Runs: 3 to 6 – 9 winners from 188 runners 32 placed

Given jockey Jamie Spencer’s record in handicaps on the straight mile at Royal Ascot. He’s an eye-catching jockey booking for top weight Dark Vision, trained by Mark Johnston.

The two I like most are King Ademar & Migration, who has sneaked into the bottom of the weights.

King Ademar, trained by Martyn Meade, get the first time cheekpieces which could unlock a but more improvement in the colt. He remains a maiden after four career starts but does tick both the key trends. He was runner-up to subsequent 2,000 Guineas second King Of Change on his seasonal return at Nottingham. He’s up 6lb for that effort 15-days ago but looks to be going the right way and Osin Murphy stays in the saddle. Trainer has had a quiet start to the season but is more than capable of preparing one for a race like this. Stall 16 could be ideal, depending how the track is running. He’s yet to race on soft ground.

Migration, trained by the very much inform David Menuisier, came from behind to win at Newmarket 35-days ago. He did well to win given he was slowly away from the stalls that day and didn’t seem total at home on the track either. He’s only been put up 4lb for that win and although he does need to improve further to win a race like this. I think a mark of 90 is more than workable. A fast run mile over a straight galloping track like Ascot looks ideal for him.  Racing out of stall 24 he looks set for a very big run having managed to get into the race.

Verdict: If King Ademar handles on the ground he can give us a good run for our money. Migration has form on good to soft so should be fine on a track that should really suit.

King Ademar – 12/1 @Bet365

Migration – 8/1 @ Ladbrokes

5:35 – The King George V Stakes (Handicap) – 1m 4f

This looks a cracker of a renewal and an even harder puzzle to solve than the previous race, especially with ground likely to be soft or on the slow side of good at best.

Mark Johnson saddles three this year with Sir Ron Priestley (Stall 10) having an ideal profile for the race looking at the trends. The son of Australia has won his last two starts at Ripon and latterly at Haydock. Up 8lb for the latter of those wins but he’s improving with each race and looks to have a decent draw in stall 10.  First run on a soft ground would be an unknown for this son of Australia but connections seem happy and they have laid him out for the race, they won last year, since the start of the season.

Sinjaari (Stall 22) & Good Birthday (Stall 7) were second & third behind Headman in the 1m 2f London Gold Cup at Newbury. At the revised weights there shouldn’t be much between the pair again. It just depends who improves more for the step up to 1m 4f. The former looks to be better drawn of the pair. Looking at the last five Royal Ascot’s the two 1m 4f Handicaps have been won by horses in the top half of the draw, with runners drawn in the first half of the draw are 0 winners from 91 runners 16 placed. Like with plenty in the field the going would be a bit of an unknown for Sinjaari but Good Birthday did run well at on soft ground as a juvenile and won on good to soft at Newbury back in October.

Ante-post favourite Constantinople (Stall 18), trained by Aidan O’Brien, is a rapidly improving colt who won a 1m 2f Group 3 at the Curragh 27-days ago. The son of Galileo, a brother to Bondi Beach, would be an Irish Derby or St Leger horse if he was to win this under top weight of 9-7. Soft ground would be unknown, and his backers will be hoping it dries out quickly.  O’Brien also saddles Eminence (Stall 19), who won a soft ground Leopardstown handicap, over 1m 3f, two starts back, before finishing third at Naas. Needs to improve to defy a mark of 91 but that’s possible given he’s bred to appreciate 1m 4f+.  

Easy 1m 2f Ripon novice winner Great Example (Stall 16), could also have a good draw. Another who needs the step up in trip to bring out the improvement needed to win this. The son of Cape Cross has plenty of stamina and soft ground form on the dam side of the pedigree to think it’s possible. Trainer Saeed Bin Suroor won the race with Elite Army in 2014.

Verdict: One of those handicaps where you pick three and still not get one into the first four. My three against the field are Sir Ron Priestley, Great Example & Sinjaari, the latter as much to do with the tremendous form of the William Haggas stable.

Sir Ron Priestley – 13/2 @ Bet365

Sinjaari – 13/2 @ Bet365

Great Example – 20/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes – each way (both paying 5 places 1/5 odds)

There are no recent eyecatchers running at the other tracks on Thursday.

Just to let you know because of Royal Ascot I won’t be doing a weekly notebook this week. However, there will be one early next week, which will include any eycatchers from Royal Ascot.

Cheers

John

Hi all,

A tough first day at Royal Ascot but recent eyecatcher Buckland Boy saved the day from being a total washout when winning at Thirsk.

It looks an even trickier day than day one. Especially as we don’t know how much rain will hit the course over overnight. Like Tuesday I’m not tipping in every race.

Royal Ascot – Day 2 – Wednesday

2:30 – The Queen Mary Stakes (Group 2) – 5f

Liberty Beach has arguably some of the best form on offer after her win at Beverley 11-days ago and trainer John Quinn won last year’s renewal with Signora Cabello at 25/1.

The best of the Irish could be Ickworth who followed up her Dundalk racecourse debut win with success in a Curragh Listed race 44-days ago. She looked a smart speedy juvenile that day but more ease in the ground might blunt that speed.

The trainer with the best record in the race is Wesley Ward with 3 winners from 9 runners 33% +5 5 placed 56% in the race. He saddles Kimari & Anna’s Fast both are contenders although the former looks the trainer’s number one.

Verdict: The Wesley Ward runners could be bankers or blow outs. I think recent Beverley winner Liberty Beach is a bit underestimated in the betting like last year’s winner. Ickworth’s well found in the market but looks a very speedy filly.

Liberty Beach – 28/1 @ Paddy Power – each way (paying 5 places 1/5 odds)

3:45 – The Prince of Wales’s Stakes (Group 1) – 1m 2f

Could turn out to be the race of the meeting with four serious contenders: Magical, Sea Of Class, Crystal Ocean & Waldgeist.

Magical, has been well placed to win three starts this year. The 4-year-old ended last season with a win in the fillies & Mares here on Champions Day before finishing runner-up to Enable in the Breeders Cup Turf.

Sea Of Class, doesn’t have the benefit of a recent run but the filly progressed all last season was an unlucky second to Enable in the Arc on her final start of 2018. There would be doubts about her participation if the ground gets really soft.

Crystal Ocean, normally gives his running and won the 1m 4f Hardwicke Stakes here 12-months ago. Interesting that connections decided to run the 5-year-old here rather than go for the Hardwicke again. He’s won his both starts this season and seeks his first Group 1 success which is long overdue.

Waldgeist, who finished runner-up in the 2017 Prix du Jockey Club (French Derby) had an excellent 2018, winning four of his first five starts, including the Group 1 Grand Prix De Saint-cloud. He was 1 ½ lengths behind Sea Of Class when finish 4th in the Arc. Showed his well-being when wining the 1m 1f Group 1 Ganay on his seasonal reappearance.

Verdict: If the late money comes in for Magical then take heed. Crystal Ocean wouldn’t be winning a Group 1 out of turn although he might not want the ground to get to soft but at least it would bring his stamina into play. Waldgeist looked better than ever when landing the Ganey last time but will need to be even better here if the other three run to form.

Verdict: A race to watch but Magical looks the most likely winner.

4:20 – The Duke of Cambridge Stakes (Group 2) – 1m

Straight track form is always useful at Ascot as we saw yesterday with Lord Glitters.

Agrotera won the Sandringham Handicap over C&D 12 months ago and made what looked an improved performance to win a Listed race at Kempton with one of today’s rivals Rawdaa back in third. Best turf form has come on quick ground so far.

I Can Fly, trained by Aidan O’Brien, is another with excellent C&D form. The 4-year-old was beaten just a neck by Roaring Lion in the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes on Champions Day. Not at that level so far this season but if the going turns soft a big run can be expected.

Pretty Baby showed she could be effective on soft ground when making all to win a listed race at Lingfield last month. I liked her attitude at the finish as she held off her nearest challengers inside the final furlong. Trainer William Haggas came off the Royal Ascot cold list when winning the last on Tuesday.

Verdict: If the rain arrives, I’m expecting a big run from I Can Fly. Pretty Baby will be hard to pass if she stays the mile.

I Can Fly – 5/1 @ William Hill

Pretty Baby – 9/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook

5:00 – The Royal Hunt Cup (Heritage Handicap) – 1m

New Graduate could be the proverbial Group horse racing in a handicap, and he’s been backed ante-post like he is.

I’m a big fan of the Victoria Cup form over 7f. The consistent Kynren was second in the Victoria Cup and won’t have any problem with the return to a mile. He always seems to run his race in these big field handicaps and can win one when all the cards fall right.

Raising Sand got going to late to finish 4th in the Victoria Cup. The 7-year-old has plenty of straight course form at the track and the softer the ground the more he likes it.

Recent Newmarket eyecatcher Stylehunter was too keen to do himself justice on his seasonal reappearance at Newmarket. He’s the sort to be suited by a big field handicap like this, where he can get some cover and come with a late run. A good 6th in last year’s Britannia Handicap showed the straight mile suits the 4-year-old but soft ground would be an unknown.

Verdict: Raising Sandmaybe slightly better over 7f but has run well here over a mile and he really appreciates soft ground. Kynren is drawn low but should give his running and wouldn’t be winning out of turn. If Stylehunter handles the going he could go well.

Kynren – 14/1 @ William Hill & BetVictor – each way (both paying 5 places)

StyleHunter – 18/1 @ William Hill & BetVictor – each way (both paying 5 places)

5:35 – The Windsor Castle Stakes (Listed) – 5f

A tricky race to conclude Day 2 and probably a race I shouldn’t be tipping in.  

Wesley Ward & Aidan O’Brien have trained three of the last ten winners of the race. The former saddles Karak, who gets the first-time blinkers and Foolish Humor who gets the first-time blinkers and tongue tie. Both horses have won their sole career start and like his first race runners they could be anything.

Aidan O’Brien relies on Southern Hills who was considered good enough to run in Listed company on his racecourse debut finishing 5th. He’s since gone on to finish runner-up in Navan maiden 18 days ago. A speedy sort he shouldn’t be underestimated despite being still a maiden.

Richard Fahey saddles three in Dylan De Vega, Summer Sands & Show Me Show Me. I prefer the first two named. Dylan De Vega looked the sort to progress further when at Beverley 44-days ago. Summer Sands overcome a wide draw to win the Brian Yeardley Trophy at Beverley 11-days ago and like his stablemate is going the right way.

Verdict: Who knows how the Wesley Ward runners will go at the track and going. Southern Hills can go well for Aidan 0’Brien. At an each-way price it’s Summer Sands for me.

Summer Sands – 14/1 @ Bet365 & Paddy Power – each way – (both paying 4 places 1/5 odds)

Recent Eyecatchers Running:

Chelmsford

7:40 – Udontdodou –

Ripon

8:20 – Moss Gill –

Cheers

John

Cheers

John