Category: Victor Value

Hi all,

It’s King George Day at Ascot with the highlight being of course the Group 1 King George VI & Queen Elizabeth Stakes at 3:40. With Enable a short-priced favourite to maintain her winning running which now dates back to April 2017. There are also competitive looking cards at York & Newmarket.

The recent heatwave is about end with a bang and there could be fun and games on weather front over the next day, with heavy downpours being forecast for most parts of the country. As ever its hard to gauge how much the going will be affected at the various racecourses. However, given most tracks have been watering over the last few days the ground could ease quickly.

My advice would be to keep a close eye on the weather if you are punting on Saturday.

I will start this Saturday betting preview at Ascot.

Ascot

1:50 – Princess Margaret Keeneland Stakes (Group 3) – 6f

Summer Romance who is unbeaten on both her career starts is odds on to win this 2-year-old fillies’ race. She’s unbeaten on both her starts and impressed when winning a Listed race at Newmarket 28-days ago. It’s hard to look beyond the favourite but at a bigger price it may pay to note the Richard Fahey trained Flaming Princess who was 7^th of 25 to Raffle Prize in the Queen Mary at Royal Ascot on her last start and prior to that had made a winning racecourse debut Nottingham. The daughter of Hot Streak could improve for the step up to 6f, won’t have any issues if the ground was to ease further and has place claims.

Verdict: realistically it’s hard to look beyond the claims of Summer Romance. Flaming Princess does look a shade overpriced based on her Queen Mary run and can run into the places at big odds. If you can get 25/1 or bigger then she might be worth an each way bet.

Flaming Princess – 33/1 @ Paddy Power – each way

3:00 – Moet & Chandon International Stakes (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) – 7f

A maximum field of 29 runners are declared to go to post for which the winner will receive £93,375.

Ante post favourite is course specialist Raising Sand. His chance is enhanced if soft appears in the going description before post time.

Next in the betting is Arbalet was beaten just ¾ length into second 12 months ago and is 3lb lower this time around. Trainer Hugo Palmer has his horses in great form which means the 4-year-old needs respecting. Arbalet has form on rain softened ground but looks better on good to firm.

Ripp Orf, loves a big field handicap on the straight course. He’s dropped down to his last winning mark and did best of those horses who came off the pace in the Bunbury Cup 14-days ago. He was third in this race last year, but trainer David Elsworth has gone 104-days since his last win which is a slight concern.

Fanaar, showed a good aptitude for the track when 3^rd of 28 in the 1m Britannia Handicap at the Royal meeting. Drops back a furlong here which shouldn’t be a problem for the 3-year-old whose best form prior to his last run had come over 7f.

Kaeso, was third in the Victoria Cup over C&D back in May, off 8lb lower. He’s won twice since then. The latter of those wins came at Doncaster 7-days ago. Carries a 3lb penalty for that success but comes into the race in great form and 7f with some ease in the ground look his optimum conditions.

Land Of Legends, caught the eye when winning at Newmarket on his last start. He’s up 5lb for that win but is going the right way. Soft ground would be an unknown for this lightly raced colt. If he handles it he shouldn’t be far away.

Blue Mist, comes into the race after a poor run at Ayr 35-days ago. However, the 4-year-old must be considered a contender of reproducing his 6^th of 28 in the Victoria Cup over C&D on his seasonal reappearance, off 1lb higher. Tongue tie goes on for the first time today and ease in the ground suits.

Verdict: Raising Sandwill probably go off favourite if the rain arrives to soften the ground.You can never rule out Ripp Orf on the straight course at Ascot. Arbalet probably needs a sound surface to be at his best and if he gets it, could go one better than 12 months ago. The inform Kaeso will like any ease in the ground as will Blue Mist who shaped like a future winner over C&D two starts back.  

Arbalet – 12/1 – each way – Ladbrokes (paying 6 places 1/5 odds)

Blue Mist – 18/1 – EACH WAY @ Coral & Paddy Power (both paying 6 places 1/5 odds)

Kaeso – 16/1 – each way – Paddy Power (paying 6 places 1/5 odds)

3:40 – King George VI And Queen Elizabeth Qipco Stakes (Group 1) (British Champions Series) (Class 1) – 1m 4f

The race of the day and has the potential to be the race of the season so far. Enable is the best race mare which have seen in decades and deserves to be odds favourite.  Crystal Ocean got his breakthrough Group 1 win at Royal Ascot. Putting in a career best on RPR’s in the process. I think he’s an even better horse at 1m 4f. Enable holds him on her very but he’s an improved horse this season. If he’s ever to beat the mare it will be today.

Verdict: Can we really look beyond Enable? Probably not, but Crystal Ocean can give the mare a race.

York

2:05 – Get Knotted gets to race in contest named after him.The 7-year-old is 3 wins from 9 runs 6 placed over C&D and any ease in the ground will be in his favour. Medahim improved for his stable debut when 4^th of 12, beaten 1 ½ lengths, 30-days ago. Best form has come on a sound surface, but he had form on an easy going for his previous trainer. The 5-year-old is back down to his last winning mark and looks interesting with Danny Tudhope having his first ride for trainer Ivan Furtado.

Medahim – 13/2 @ Bet365 & Betway

2:40 – Sky Bet Dash Handicap (Class 2) – 6f

A field of 18 are set to go to post for this competitive sprint handicap.

Flying Pursuit has won the last two running’s of the race, last year’s off 2lb higher, and can make a bold bid for the hat trick. The 6-year-old has winning form on good ground, but his best form has come over the distance on good to soft to heavy ground – 5 wins from 17 runs +25.5 10 placed.  He rightly heads the ante-post betting with rain forecast.

Next in the betting is the David O’Meara trained Gulliver. The 5-year-old put in a career best on turf when winning over C&D 28-days ago. That win did come on good to firm by he was only beaten a head on good to soft at Ripon three starts back. Up 5lb for his last win but shouldn’t be far away again.

Trainer Michael Dods saddles two strong contenders in Camacho Chief & Dakota Gold. The former won at Doncaster last month off 5lb lower. That win came over 5f and he’s yet to win beyond that distance on seven starts. On the plus side soft ground will be very much in the 4-year-old favour. Dakota Gold has won over 5 ½ f here in the past. The 5-year-old shaped well on his belated seasonal reappearance when 5^th of 13 in the Gosforth Park Cup 29-days ago. Despite being 6lb higher than his last winning mark he needs respecting.

Golden Apollo, stablemate of Flying Pursuit was 3^rd to Gulliver over C&D two starts back and was only beaten a neck in this 12 months ago, off 4lb higher. The 5-year-old is on a losing run that dates to August 2017, but he goes well here and likes some cut in the ground.

Encrypted, was a progressive sprint handicapper last year, including a win over C&D and was runner-up in the valuable Portland Handicap last September off 6lb lower. The 4-year-old hails from the inform Hugo Palmer stable and a useful 5lb apprentice has been booked for the ride. On the negative side he’s been kept away from soft ground. He would be a strong fancy for me on good or quicker ground.

Verdict: Encrypted would be my choice on good or quicker ground. If the ground eases as expected, then last year’s winner and runner-up Flying Pursuit & Golden Apollo must enter calculations.

Flying Pursuit – 15/2 @ Paddy Power

Golden Apollo – 11/1 @ Ladbrokes

Cheers

John

Hi all,

Just to let you know due to an intermittent WiFi signal there are no selections today.

Normal service will resume for Saturday’s big race action.

I have been preparing for ‘Glorious’ Goodwood over the last few days, which means there is no VV’s notebook this week.

Cheers

John

Hi all,

It’s a been steady profits over the last couple weekends. However, Saturday was one of those days when everything goes right with Waldpfad (33/1), Casablanca Mix, advised 11/1 and Indeed, advised 6/1 all doing the business. To give us one of the best Saturday’s of the flat season so far. Add in positive mentions for Makzeem & Withold, the only one that got away on the day, a win from recent eyecatcher Ironclad, a generous 9/2, at Newmarket and I’m sure you were as delighted as I was with the massive profit made.

The racing on Sunday isn’t as good as I thought but I do have three selections running at the Curragh.

Curragh

4:20 – Baby Power & Shore Step were first & third in a big field handicap at Navan 15-days ago. The former is up 5lb here but jockey Gavin Ryan can claim his full 7lb here so that does negate the mares rise in the weights. Coming off a strong pace seems to suit her, and she can go well again. His draw could be better but I’m happy to take a chance. Shore Step, twice a winner at the Curragh including C&D, always needs respecting here and the 8-year-old is now 4lb below his last winning mark. Like Baby Power he’s drawn low and as long as the draw isn’t an inconvenience a big run can be expected.

Baby Power – 9/1 – each way @ Coral & Ladbrokes (both paying 5 places 1/5 odds)

Shore Step – 11/1 – each way – @ Coral & Ladbrokes (both paying 5 places 1/5 odds)

5:30 – Il Paradiso, a winner of a 1m 4f Leopardstown maiden on his seasonal return, he was predictably outclassed on his next start in the Irish Derby. On pedigree the step up to 2m could be ideal for the colt.  After his Leopardstown win trainer Aidan O’Brien was taking about the St Leger for the son of Galileo. He probably won’t be up to that level, but he makes his handicap debut off 89, which looks workable.

Il Paradiso – 7/2 @ William Hill & Paddy Power

I doubt there will be much action on the betting front this week, at least until Friday anyway. However, if there are any selections, I will let you know.

Cheers

John

Hi all,

I do like a good sprint handicap and we have one this evening with the Scottish Stewards Cup at Hamilton this evening with plenty of old favourites are in the 14 strong line up.

Hamilton

7:40 – Heineken UK Scottish Stewards’ Cup Handicap (Class 2) – 6f

The going is currently good to firm but plenty of rain is being forecast for this afternoon and evening so the going could ease substantially before post time.

Last years winner George Bowen was slowly away at York last time but is just 2lb higher than last year and back to back wins in the race is a definite possibility although any easing of the ground probably won’t be in his favour.

Staxton, bounced back with a seasonal best when winning at Newcastle 20-days ago. Returns to turf today off 5lb higher but the 4-year-old is 2 wins from 5 runs 4 placed on good to soft and could easily win again, given this time of year seems to bring out the best in the 4-year-old. High on the shortlist although there will be a few vying for the early lead.

Another who would be suited by good to soft is Laugh A Minute. The Roger Varian trained gelding makes his handicap debut off a competitive mark. No match for Invincible Army in a Group 3 at Newcastle 20-days ago. However, he’s got plenty of form on an easy surface and could get the strong pace he needs here.

The more rain the better for C&D winner Air Raid, 2 from 2 over C&D and 3 from 4 on soft ground. Golden Apollo a stablemate of Staxton is also suited by some juice in the ground and put in a seasonal best when runner-up at York 20-days ago.

Of those further down the betting Aeolus isn’t without a chance for Ruth Carr. Granted he only won once since the summer of 2015, that win came in April of last year at Newmarket, on good to soft off 11lb higher. It’s also worth noting he was beaten less than a length in the 2017 Goodwood Stewards Cup off 14lb higher.  Yet to hit anything like that form so far for Ruth Carr but the 8-year-old is well handicapped if he does.

Verdict: In the hope that the weatherman are right and there’s soft in the going description, I’m happy to go with Staxton, Laugh A Minute and Aeolus.

Staxton – 9/1 @ Paddy Power & Betway

Laugh A Minute – 7/1 @ Paddy Power or 6/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

Aeolus – 25/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes – each way (both paying 4 places 1/5 odds)

A second selection for today which runs in the Midlands National at Kilbeggan this evening.

Kilbeggan

8:15 – AXA Smart Farm Insurance Midlands National Handicap Chase – 3m 1f

Gordon Elliott won this race with Timiyan but the horse subsequently lost the race after a routine dope test.  He saddles 8 of the 14 declared runners including last years first past the post and It’s Timiyan I like.  The 8-year-old is 4lb higher than last year, but he looks on a competitive mark again and remains at the right end of the handicap. Most of his best form has come on a sound surface but he does have winning form on softer. He doesn’t have the benefit of a recent run, this will be his first since pulling up in the valuable Troytown Handicap Chase 236-days ago, but he’s gone well fresh in the past 2 wins from 3 runs +9.25 when racing 121 to 365-days since his last start. The track suits and he look’s overpriced to me at the 20/1 available.

Timiyan – 20/1 @ William Hill – each way – (paying 4 places 1/5 odds)

Let’s hope we can get the weekend off to a good start with a winner.

Cheers

John

The weekly notebook is back after couple of weeks break. As I mentioned in my last e-mail, I have started my mid-season purge of the tracker horses. I’m sure I will miss some winners between now and the end of the flat season. So be it, as I had to make space for plenty of new eyecatchers from last week.

Plenty of good action this weekend although not on the scale of last week’s Super Saturday. On Friday we have the start of a two-day fixture at Newbury. The most valuable race of the two-day fixture is the Wetherbys Super Sprint for the juveniles. There’s also a solid supporting card with the £100,000 JLT Cup and the Group 3 Hackwood Stakes.

Although Newbury is the feature meeting of Saturday there’s also a competitive looking card at for summer jump fans at Market Rasen. As the Lincolnshire track hosts its most valuable meeting of the year with the highlights being two valuable handicap the Summer Hurdle and Summer Plate. Over the Irish Sea its Irish Oaks Day at the Curragh which also races on Sunday.

More on the weekend action later in the week.

Eyecatchers – w/e July 14th

We had some tremendous action at the Newmarket July Festival last week and that three-day meeting provides most of this week’s horses for the tracker but there’s also one from Ascot and a two from York’s Saturday card.

Thursday July 11^th

Newmarket – July Festival

Moss Gill – James Bethall

A previous eyecatcher returns. Yes, it does happen occasionally. The width of the track separated Pass The Vino & Moss Gill and a short head at the line with the latter coming second best in the photo finish. The 3-year-old continued his improvement with a strong finishing effort on the near side. The strong pace suited the gelding. He’s been put up 4lb for this effort but remains on a competitive mark. He clearly stayed the 6f here, but he won’t have any problem returning to 5f.

East Of Eden – Hugo Palmer

The trainer is having a season to forget but he looks to have a decent juvenile filly on his hands. A daughter of Exceed Of Excel she was very keen in the early stages on her racecourse debut and did really well to hang on for third in the hands of Ryan Moore. She needs to settle better than she did, if she’s too fulfil her potential, but she’s certainly got a good engine and is capable of winning races.

Moqtarreb – Roger Varian

The colt had impressed when winning a C&D novice by four lengths on his previous start and was all the rage in the betting, being sent off 15/8, for the 1m handicap that concluded the card. He travelled powerfully through the race, without much cover, and plenty of use was made of him so not surprisingly he got a little tired and eventually finished 4^th. After the race his trainer felt that the horse was unsuited by the quick ground. He deserves another chance when the going isn’t as fast and he can get more cover than he got here.

Friday July 12th

Newmarket – July Festival

Not So Sleepy – Hughie Morrison

He might be a 7-year-old, but he showed here that he’s still capable of winning a decent pot when in a going mood. On a long losing run on the flat dates to June 2017, did win over hurdles in February. He put in his best effort on the flat since finishing runner-up in last year’s November Handicap when a staying on 4^th of 17 in the valuable 1m 6f handicap. Not a bad first effort over the distance and given most of his best form has come on good or softer ground, this effort was decent, given quick underfoot conditions. Handicapper has nudged him up 1lb but he remains 3lb lower than in the November Handicap.

Tsar – John Gosden

The son of Kingman made a highly encouraging debut when finishing 4^th in what could turn out to be strong 7f maiden.  Slowly away from the stalls, he ran green for much of the way but stayed on well enough under tender handling from Frankie Dettori. This run will should have taught him plenty and he can win races for his top trainer.

La Maquina – George Baker

Unexposed on turf having had just the four starts on grass. A winner at Goodwood back in May off 3lb lower. The gelding bounced back from a luckless run at Kempton, to finish 2^nd of 13 in the 7f handicap.  Unfortunately, the 4-year-old had the misfortune to come up against a handicap good thing in the shape of Light And Dark on this occasion. There will be other days for him and given his Goodwood win he will be of interest should he go for handicap at the Goodwood Festival.

Saturday July 13th

Newmarket

Ripp Orf – David Elsworth

On a day when the pace held up, it wasn’t easy to make up ground from the rear. In the Bunbury Cup, the first five home were all ridden prominently and not many of the hold-up horses got into the race. Ripp Orf did best of those held up and was staying on nicely into 6th, beaten just under two lengths at the line. He’s now dropped down to his last winning mark and must be a big player in the upcoming Moët & Chandon International Stakes back at his beloved Ascot on King George Day.  A race the 5-year-old finished third in last season.

Dupioni – Rae Guest

As with Bunbury Cup, it was a race where the hold-up horses were at a disadvantage. That didn’t suit the filly who was settled at the back of the field. She ran well enough to be a never nearer 3^rd behind the all the way winner. The daughter of Siyouni has only had the four career starts, winning at Kempton as juvenile and had made a pleasing seasonal reappearance when 3rd of 8 over C&D 22-days ago. Trainer does well with his fillies and Dupioni look capable of winning a fillies’ handicap off her present mark. Which is a 1lb lower than on Saturday.

Ascot

Blue De Vega – Robert Cowell

The 6-year-old had put in a seasonal best when finishing 3^rd of 19 in the Epsom ‘Dash’ on Derby Day, beaten just ½ length, three starts back. Not so good on the tapeta in the Gosforth Park Cup but he ran much better here. Slowly away, he got a bit squeezed at the start, racing in the rear he made good headway on the rails, to finish 7^th of 19. The damage had been done at the start but there’s no doubt when all the cards fall right and they go hard up front he’s handicapped to win off 4lb lower than last years winning mark.

York

My Lord And Master – William Haggas

If there’s one to take out of the John Smiths Cup with the future in mind. It could the My Lord And Master. The 4-year-old was having his first start for 225-days and his first run since a gelding operation. He was fancied in the pre-race betting, sent off at just 7/1, but never really got competitive after a sluggish start. His best RPR had come when runner-up over C&D last October, albeit the ground was soft that day. He’s on a competitive mark but probably found this going far to lively on Saturday.

Endowed – Richard Hannon

The 2-year-old looked to be on a good mark, off 80, for his nursery debut and was backed accordingly into 3/1 at the off. Always in a good position just behind the leaders, he didn’t get the clearest of runs when making his effort inside the final furlong and had to settle for a ½ length 3^rd at the finish. Travelled like the best horse in the race and looked unlucky here. Up 3lb but should remain capable of winning a nursery like in the coming weeks.  

Cheers

John

Hi all,

It’s Super Saturday with seven race meetings around the UK and another two across the Irish Sea. Let’s begin this Saturday betting preview at Newmarket where it’s the final day of the July Festival with feature race being the Group 1 July Cup over 6f and it looks a cracker of renewal. At York it’s the John Smith’s Cup Handicap which looks as competitive a contest as ever.

Plenty of potential bets today from Newmarket, Ascot & York.

Newmarket July Festival – Day 3

2:20 – bet365 Bunbury Cup (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) – 7f

The big betting race of the three-day Newmarket July Festival.

A maximum field of twenty are declared to go post for this year’s renewal.

Zap – The 4-year-old won the Silver Bunbury handicap here 12 months ago and later that season put in a career best when winning a valuable 7f handicap at Leopardstown last September. He now races off 4lb lower than for that win which gives him a great chance here. His optimum conditions are 7f on good to firm ground with his top six RPR’s coming when getting them. The geldings top two RPR’s have also come in field sizes 15+. The first-time visor had been enlisted and if the headgear works, he’s got a better chance than his odds suggest. Two slight negatives to his chance are no winner had been sent off 18/1 or bigger in the past ten-years and he needs a strong pace to come off and the race doesn’t seem set up for the closers.

Roger Fell won this race last year with Burnt Sugar and he saddles Burnt Sugar & Admirality. The former looks capable of a bold bid in his attempt at back to back wins, although like Zap he could be a hostage to the pace of the race. He’s remains competitively weighted and holds a number of these on last year’s form. Admirality is a more prominent racer. He won a competitive 7f Thirsk handicap, on his first start for the trainer, back in May off 4lb lower and has run just as well when placing at York & Leicester on his last two starts. Like his stablemate he seems at his best on a sound surface and looks set to go well.

Ripp Orf excels in big field 7f/1m handicaps, usually at Ascot. The 5-year-old has dropped back down to his last winning mark which makes him a contender. He showed he was no back number when 5th of 26 in the Victoria Cup at Ascot two starts back and has been dropped 2lb. A major negative is the form of the David Elsworth stable who has gone 48 runners and 90 days since his last winner.

Of those at head of the market the most interesting could be the Jane Chapple-Hyam trained Ambassadorial. The 5-year-old was a useful juvenile for Michael Halford, winning a Listed race at Dundalk. He clearly wasn’t the easiest to keep sound as he only raced once as a 3-year-old and only ran in good race last season on his seasonal reappearance once again at Dundalk. Won on his first start for 293-days and his first start for his new trainer once again on the all-weather at Chelmsford 24-days ago. If, and it’s a big if he can translate his all-weather form, he remains a well-handicapped horse even under his penalty.

Verdict: Oh, this a tough one and you can almost guarantee I will no doubt leave off the winner from my shortlist. My four against the field are in no particular order:  Ambassadorial, Burnt Sugar, Admirality and Zap.

Burnt Sugar – 12/1 @ Bet365 & Ladbrokes

Ambassadorial – 11/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

Admirality. – 14/1 @ Coral & Paddy Power (both paying 5 places 1/5 odds) – each way

Zap – 28/1 @ Ladbrokes (paying 5 places 1/5 odds) or Coral 25/1 – each way

4:05 – California Love – Ran a big race when 6^th of 27 in the Britannia Handicap at Royal Ascot. That was her first start for 218-days and she did best of those fillies who raced up with the pace. If she hasn’t had to hard a race at Ascot, she looks to have a good chance here with normal improvement.

Rae Guest does well with his fillies and big run from Dupioni could be on the cards. The daughter of Siyouni has only had the four career starts, winning at Kempton as juvenile. She made a pleasing seasonal reappearance when 3rd of 8 over C&D 22-days ago. Finishing here race of nicely she wasn’t subjected to a hard race and should be sharper today.

I also like Charlie Fellowes trained I Am Magical. She won a fast ground fillies mile handicap on the course back in May. Not as good on two subsequent starts but there are valid excuses. She failed to settle at Nottingham and last time wasn’t as suited to the rain softened ground or the pace of the race at Sandown. At the right end of the handicap and just 3lb higher than for her win she’s got a big chance. Her hold up style means she could be hostage to the pace of the race.

I Am Magical – 9/1 – Gen

California Love – 6/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

4:40 – Darley July Cup Stakes (Group 1) (British Champions Series) (Class 1) – 6f

Advertise is the market leader. The 3-year-old enjoyed the return to sprinting and the first time blinkers, when winning the Commonwealth Cup at Royal Ascot. He won here as a juvenile last year and is the one to beat.

Dream Of Dreams was a strong finishing runner-up to Blue Point in the Diamond Jubilee and looks set to get the fast pace he likes.

Fairyland was only beaten 3 lengths by Blue Point in the 5f King Stand Stakes last time. Doing her best work at the finish she will be better over today’s 6f, 4 wins from 5 runs 5 placed over the distance. Aidan O’Brien also saddles So Perfect and Ten Sovereigns. The latter is the choice of Ryan Moore and although he’s been disappointing so far this season, he was only 2 ½ lengths behind Advertise at Ascot but could get closer here.

Verdict: If the blinkers work again Advertise will be hard to beat. Dream Of Dreams has improved with each run this season and deserves to land a big one. Fairyland was a much bigger price early in the week and the 8/1 is about right about the 3-year-old’s chance. I wouldn’t be surprised if her stablemate Ten Sovereigns put in a big performance and Ryan Moore keeps the faith with the colt.

Dream Of Dreams – 9/2 – Gen

Ascot

1:45 – Tis Marvellous, goes well at Ascot having won a C&D handicap last August and finishing runner-up to Cape Byron in the Wokingham Handicap at Royal Ascot, a race he had finished 4^th in the previous year. It was no disgrace to beaten by that horse and he looks capable of going close here.

Tis Marvellous – 6/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

2:50 – William Haggas is 2 winners from 5 runners 3 placed and Sir Michael Stoute is 2 winners from 3 runners in the fillies’ handicap in the past ten years and they both saddle runners in this year’s renewal. It may pay to go with top-weighted Haggas runner Ummalnar who’s better than she was able to show at Ripon on her seasonal reappearance 23-days ago. The return to quicker ground should suit as will drop back to a mile.

Ummalnar – 11/2 @ Ladbrokes

4:35 – Persian Moon looks to have a decent chance even under top-weight of 9-7. The 3-year-old put in a career best when 4^th of 16 in the King George V Handicap over C&D at the Royal Meeting. He’s been nudged up 1lb for that effort, but he remains on a competitive mark if he can reproduce that on just his second start in a handicap. Almania finished just ¾ length and one place behind in that Royal Ascot race, he should improve on that and gets a 1lb from Persian Moon but is half the price of the selection.

Persian Moon – 7/1 – Gen

York

3:50 – John Smith’s Diamond Jubilee Cup Handicap (Class 2) – 1m 2 ½ f

It’s the 60^th anniversary of the John Smiths sponsored race and a maximum field of 22 are declared to run in this year’s race.

Exec Chef has run with credit on five of his six starts this season, runner-up in the Spring Mile on his seasonal reappearance and has been beaten two lengths or less on his last four starts. The return to 1m 2f has eked out a bit more improvement in the 4-year-old. Was shade unlucky in the run when 4^th of 10 to Jazeel at Sandown 8-days ago.

Jazeel has a 5lb penalty for that win but Sean Davis takes of a valuable 3lb and there shouldn’t be much between him and Exec Chef. He probably needs a good solid gallop to be seen at his best, but if he gets it the 4-year-old could have further improvement in him for the very much inform Jedd O’Keeffe stable.

This race was identified as a target for Mountain Angel after is win in a valuable handicap at Epsom. He’s since run well enough when 5^th of 16 in a Listed race at Royal Ascot. Just 5lb higher than at Epsom you can see why he’s been well found in the market for this. He beat Jazeel a length at Epsom and meets that one on 1lb better terms here, not taking into account the jockey’s claim.

The lightly raced Francis Xavier is an interesting runner. The 5-year-old won a C&D handicap last September on his first start for trainer Kevin Frost. That win came on good to soft, but he seemed effective on good to firm when winning at Doncaster for previous trainer Hugo Palmer. He ended last season with a win in a Pontefract handicap, off 7lb lower. Just the one run in a Listed race at Goodwood, little chance at the weights, 49-days ago. This is only his 8^th career start so he remains capable of a bit more progress on a galloping track that suits. It will be interesting to see if there is money for the gelding, as he looks overpriced to me.

Verdict: A usual competitive renewal of the race. Francis Xavier could be overpriced, Jazeel might not have stopped his progression just yet and Exec Chef wouldn’t be winning a handicap like this out of turn.

Francis Xavier – 28/1 @ Coral or 25/1 @ William Hill & Ladbrokes (Paying 5 places 1/5 odds) – each-way

Jazeel – 12/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes (Paying 5 places 1/5 odds) – each-way

Exe Chef – 20/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes (Paying 5 places 1/5 odds) – each way

5:35 – Oclan looks on a competitive mark for his nursery debut. He looked a sure-fire future winner when a strong finishing runner-up on his racecourse debut. Not so good on his next two starts but he gets the first-time hood today and has place claims.

Oclan – 18/1 @ Ladbrokes or 16/1 @ Coral – each way

Cheers

John

Hi all,

A tough day for punters on Thursday at the Newmarket July Festival. However, a couple of nice priced each way bets landed and Duke Of Hazzard’s win at 10/1 (BOG) means a profit for us on the day.

Newmarket July Festival – Day 2

1:50 – One Of three Mark Johnston trained runners, a race he has won five times in the past ten years. Oasis Prince, showed a good battling attitude, when putting a career best to win at Yarmouth in the hands of today’s jockey Jamie Spencer. The return to quick ground suited the colt that day and he’s has now 3 wins from 4 runs on good or quicker ground. Steps up to 1m 2f but there is enough stamina on the dam side to think he will stay the trip. Up 5lb for his Yarmouth win but his improvement may not have levelled off just yet.

Oasis Prince – 10/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

2:25 – Daahyeh, impressed when winning the Group 3 Albany Stakes at Royal Ascot. Looks capable of winning this if she’s as effective on the quicker ground she faces today. A solid looking market leader. Celtic Beauty was beaten just 1 ½ lengths by the favourite at Royal Ascot. She capable of getting closer here especially if the going remains on the quicker side of good. Just a shame the each-way option isn’t available.

Celtic Beauty – 7/1 @ Bet365 & William Hill

3:00 – The claims of ante post favourite Ben Vrackie are there for all to see. The 4-year-old returned from a 262-day absence to finish just a short head behind Baghdad in the Duke Of Edinburgh Handicap at Royal Ascot. The handicapper has only raised the 4-year-old 4lb for that effort so he’s a major player but at 3/1 he looks plenty short enough in the betting. The extra two furlongs should be fine but there doesn’t look to be much pace in the race, but he will need to be ridden much closer than he was at Ascot.

Secret Advisor, won the Melrose Handicap at the Ebor Festival back in 2017. The 5-year-old was then down the field in the Duke Of Edinburgh on his first run since his York win. He’s entitled to have needed that and has been well backed in the ante-post market. At 6/1 he looks plenty short enough in a race as competitive as this even though this race has probably been the geldings target.

Outbox, trained by Simon Crisford, looks the only genuine front runner in the field. He makes his handicap debut of what looks a workable mark off 102. The four-year-old won his three starts last season and made a highly encouraging seasonal reappearance when beaten just a head in Listed race at Chantilly 21-days ago. The lightly raced gelding could be tough to pass if he gets an uncontested lead.

Desert Wind won a valuable 1m 4f handicap on Kempton’s polytrack 37-days ago. The handicapper has raised him 5lb for that performance, but his victory marked him down as a useful handicapper. Another with stamina doubts but trainer Ed Vaughan is 3 winners from 10 runners 30% +8.75 in the past 14-days so he needs respecting, despite his best form so far coming on the synthetics.

Verdict: Outbox looks more better value that the front two in the market and Desert Wind is useful on the synthetics and can outrun his odds for an inform yard, if as good on the grass.

Outbox – 7/1 @Bet365 & Ladbrokes

Desert Wind – 18/1 @ Bet365 – each way

3:35 – There’s no Alpha Centauri in this year’s renewal and in all truth, it doesn’t look a race full of quality for a Group 1 contest.

Qabala was an excellent 3rd in the 1,000 Guineas before running poorly in the Irish 1,000 Guineas. She scoped abnormally after that race so can be forgiven that run. If she reproduces her earlier form when winning the Nell Gwyn and placing in the Guineas, she’s got a big chance.

Qabala – 7/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

5:20 – Just the seven have been declared, which is a disappointing turnout for this 5f Class 2 handicap. Shamshon won this race in 2017, he’s 7lb lower this time around and has good chance of winning this again. Orvar & Lord Riddiford were 4th and 5th in a valuable Curragh 5f Handicap last time. The former improved on his recent York and was doing his best work at the finish and could have finished a bit closer with a clearer run inside the final furlong. He’s down to his last winning mark and can win this. Lord Riddiford did best of the drawn low in the Curragh race and Frankie Dettori has been booked for the ride.  There shouldn’t be much between him and Orvar again.

Orvar – 10/3 @ Paddy Power & William Hill

Shamshon – 7/1 @ Bet365 & Paddy Power

Cheers

John

Hi all,

Day one of three great days racing on the July Course.

Newmarket July Festival

Thursday July 11th – Day 1

1:50 – Bahrain Trophy Stakes (Group 3) – 1m 5f

There is the possibility that Barbados could get an easy lead out in front if he does, he will be hard to peg back. However, Eagles By Day put up a better performance on the figures when 3rd to Japan in the King Edward VII Stakes. He was doing his best work at the finish that day and should be suited by today’s extra furlong. A win here and he will have to be considered a live St Leger contender. I wouldn’t put anyone off having a saver on Nayef Road who just finished behind Barbados in the Queen’s Vase but is almost double the price of his old rival here.

Eagles By Day – 2/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

3:00 – bet365 Handicap (Class 2) – 6f

It looks like there should be plenty of pace in the race which brings Woven into calculations. He didn’t seem happy making the running at Newcastle 12-days ago. I suspect he will return to more patient tactics today and given he stays further than 6f he could be the one to take advantage should they go too hard up front.

Dazzling Dan, was three places and 2 lengths behind Magical Wish in the York race. He looked to run below the form of his previous win at Newmarket. Maybe the good to soft going or the track didn’t suit day. Either way he didn’t run to his best and a return here will hopefully see him in a better light.

Street Parade, finished one place ahead of filly in that race. He put up a tremendous weight carrying performance off an OR of 101, trying to give 20lb to the winner. First start over 6f for the gelding and if he’s as effective over it, he won’t be far away at the finish.

Two other contenders in the race are Alfie Solomons, who looks to be slowly hitting form he was 4th behind Magical Wish in the York race and filled the same position back here over 5f behind Street Parade & Philipine Cobra 19-days ago.  A return to 6f will be in his favour here.

Moss Gill, trained by James Bethall has been a twice winning eyecatcher for us since a good effort at York back in May. Winning a Doncaster novice race at odds on before a comfortable win at Ripon 22-days ago. He’s up 6lb for that win but is an improving handicap sprinter. Stall one slightly tempers enthusiasm, but he needs to be kept onside.

Verdict: I might regret leaving Alfie Solomons & Moss Gill out of the portfolio, but I am just going with Street Parade and Dazzling Dan.

Street Parade -16/1 @ Paddy Power – each way (paying 6 places 1/5 odds) or 14/1 – Gen with bookies paying 5 places

Dazzling Dan – 10/1 @ Bet365 & William Hill – each way

4:40 – A Listed race over a mile for 3-year-olds and despite the decent price money on offer it’s just attracted a field of six runners. Urban Icon, Duke Of Hazzard & Momkin where 4th, 5th and 6th respectably in the Jersey Stakes at Royal Ascot. The latter didn’t get the best of runs that day and wasn’t knocked about when his chance had gone. Duke Of Hazzard’s preparation for that race was said to have been interrupted by a foot abscess so could be slightly sharper here. The first-time blinkers have also been enlisted today and trainer Paul Cole has his horses in great form at present. There were no excuses for Urban Icon, but he will at least be better suited by going back up to a mile. Given the form of Paul Cole stable, I ‘m just opting for the Duke Of Hazzard.

Duke Of Hazzard – 9/1 @ Coral & Paddy Power

5:10 – The card concludes with a tricky 1m Class 3 handicap. The Charlie Appleby trained Wings Of Time makes his handicap debut on the back of a C&D second in a novice race 19-days ago. He’s likely to head the market but a mark of 90 looks stiff on what the 3-year-old has achieved so far on his three starts. That said the gelding is open to further improvement.

The 4-year-old Nkosikazi made an encouraging first start since moving to the William Haggas yard when runner-up at Lingfield 19-days ago. If she builds on that promise, she won’t be far away for a trainer whose horses remain in winning form. 

Balgair doesn’t hold any secrets from the handicapper but the 5-year-old goes well over C&D with 1 win from 4 runs 3 placed and form figures 7122. All four of his career wins have come on good or quicker ground. He’s 4lb higher than for his C&D winner two starts back. Vulnerable to any improvers in the field but he’s consistent and ticks the key boxes marked going and course & distance.

Ulshaw Bridge, in the same ownership as Moss Gill who runs earlier in the card, hasn’t possibly won as many races as he should have 2 wins from 16 runs 9 placed. The 4-year-old has run well on all three of his starts this season and seems to be reaching peak form after his recent close second at Redcar over 7f. The return to a mile will be in his favour and he looks on a competitive handicap mark. However, will the early pace be strong enough for him as he does seem to be at his best when coming off strong gallop.

Verdict: The consistent Balgair should be there or thereabouts at the finish and if they go a decent gallop then Ulshaw Bridge could run into the places.

Balgair – 10/1 @ Bet365 & Paddy Power – each way

Ulshaw Bridge – 16/1 @ Paddy Power –  each way

Cheers

John

Hi all,

Harome landed a bit of a gamble at Ayr on Sunday which means the service ends the weekend in profit. He goes again at Ayr on Monday and looks to have a good chance of winning again under his 5lb penalty.

There’s plenty of racing on Monday but most of it is moderate.

Windsor

8:50 – Fearless Warrior an early season eyecatcher is given one final chance to get into the winner’s enclosure today. The 3-year-old, a useful juvenile, made a promising seasonal reappearance at Bath but has failed to build on that form on two subsequent runs at Leicester & Chester. Gets the first time blinkers this evening and if the headgear has the desired effect the colt is on a competitive mark. Since the start of 2017, trainer Ralph Beckett is 8 winners from 37 runners 22% +26.41 18 placed 49% with his runners racing in the first-time blinkers.

Fearless Warrior – 5/1 @ Bet365 & William Hill

The service will be back on Thursday for day one of the Newmarket July Festival. As ever should any recent eyecatcher’s run in the meantime, I will post up if I’m having a bet.

Cheers

John

Hi all,

Mojito saved the day for us yesterday with a decisive win at Sandown. Not the most inspiring of days but I have a couple of selections that look worth a bet.

Ayr

3:35 – Recent Eyecatcher Harome, was a disappointing beaten favourite over C&D 15-days ago. Prior to that he had been beaten only 1 ¾ lengths into 6th in the Epsom Dash. A reproduction of that Epsom performance would be good enough for the 5-year-old, whose now back down to his last winning mark. Mind you I would want all the 9/4 available and more to be a player rather than a watcher.

Harome – 9/4 – Gen

Limerick

2:55 – Master Matt looked a handicapper worth following when winning over 6f at Sligo two starts back. The 3-year-old wasn’t disgraced when 5^th of 16 at the Curragh 8-days ago. He was staying on at the end of that 6f race and looks worth a try at 7f. Shane Crosse who rode the selection to his Sligo victory is back in the saddle to take off a valuable 5lb.

Master Matt – 9/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

Cheers

John