Category: Victor Value

Hi all,

Rather surprisingly I have a Thursday selection for you.

Sandown

7:15 – Eight are set to go to post for this 1m 2f handicap although there must be a doubt about the participation of Mubariz who ran at Bath on Wednesday.

There are three previous winners in the field in Just The Man, Dreamweaver and Mokammal. All three are going the right way but Mokammal might just be the best of the trio. The 3-year-old battled on well to win on his handicap debut at Chester 41-days ago. His trainer Sir Michael Stoute is master at placing middle distance handicappers. He’s up 4lb in a better race today but given he’s only had the four career starts there’s likely more to come from the gelding.

Migration could well become my new ‘cliff horse’. A winner of a 1m handicap at Newmarket three starts ago, He was then sent off just 7/1 for the Britannia Handicap at Royal Ascot where he could only finish 7^th of 28. Shaped better on first attempt at 1m 2f when 7^th in a better handicap than this at Newmarket 27-days ago. Doing his best work at the finish he seemed to stay the 1m 2f well enough although the 3-year-olds not bred to get more than a mile. Just 2lb higher than for his Newmarket win I’m expecting a big run from the selection. Silvestre De Sousa is up for the first time and he’s 2 -3 +11.38 when teaming up with trainer David Menuisier.

Verdict: As much as I respect the claims of the Stoute horse for this handicap. I think Migration is capable of landing this off his present mark. That said I wouldn’t want to take less than 4/1 about his chance.

Migration – 6/1 @ Bet365 or 9/2 @ Ladbrokes & Coral

Cheers

John

Hi all,

The weekly notebook is back after a two-week break. Well we have just finished five day’s excellent racing at the Qatar Goodwood Festival.

Given the unique configuration of Goodwood racecourse. There are normally plenty of hard luck stories, in the big field handicaps, at the meeting and this year is no exception with plenty of horses that could be put in the tracker.

This weekend the racing is low key. I say low key but it’s Shergar Cup at Ascot. So, you could hardly describe it as low key. I have to say I’m not really fan of the event, although I will no doubt watch and have the odd bet.

Plenty of traditionalist’s will be giving the meeting a miss and will be looking to the Group action on the Haydock & Newmarket cards for their betting. Haydock’s feature race is the Group 3 Rose Of Lancaster Stakes. At Newmarket there’s’ more Group 3 action with Sweet Solera Stakes for 2-year-olds. There’s also a good 7f handicap on the Newmarket card.

More on the weekend action later in the week.

Eyecatchers – w/e August 4^th

All this week’s notebook horses are from Goodwood. I could easily have gone for a double figure number of eyecatchers but here are my top eight. If you read my Monday Daily Punt column you will already have seen two of them.

Qatar Goodwood Festival

Tuesday July 30^th – Day 1

Johnny Drama – Andrew Balding

Was having his first start for trainer Andrew Balding, after a switch from the Ger Lyons stable. The 4-year-old had disappointed when down the field in the Duke Of Edinburgh Handicap at Royal Ascot on his previous start.

This was much better effort from the gelding who now runs in the colours of King Power Racing. He was slowly away which didn’t help his chances and he also didn’t get the best of runs inside the two furlongs. He had to be switched out wide but stayed on well all the way to the line to finish 6th of 16, beaten 3 ¼ lengths.

A big horse who has a distinct knee action, he will be better with more juice in the ground and looks worth another tries over 1m 4f. Johnny Drama is lightly raced for his age, just the six career starts, and can win a decent handicap when the ground eases.

Chaleur – Ralph Beckett

The 3-year-old built on the promise of her Newmarket seasonal reappearance, when a strong finishing 3^rd of 11 in the 1m fillies handicap. Held up at the back she made good headway two furlongs out but found the line coming to soon. Beaten just a length, it was a good effort on her first start over the distance. The easing of the ground also probably wasn’t in her favour as both her juvenile wins had come on good to firm.

Now connections know she stays a mile it opens a few more options for the well-bred daughter of Dansili. The handicapper has only put her up a 1lb for this run, so she remains on a competitive mark, and she is one to note on quicker ground.

Wednesday July 31^st – Day 2

Dubawi Fifty – Karen McLintock

Was sent off a well fancied 5/1 for the marathon handicap that opened the day 3 card.  The 5-year-old had previously returned from 12 months of the track with an excellent head, 2^nd of 19 in the Northumberland Plate.

A prominent racer he couldn’t get a good position from the off and was held up at the back. Those tactics didn’t suit the gelding and although he plugged on into a never nearer 11^th at the finish. He never looked like he would get involved in the race at any time. It’s probably best to draw a line under his run and he can be seen to better advantage when he can race more towards the head of affairs.

Tribal Craft – Andrew Balding

A winner of her previous two starts at Pontefract & Salisbury.  Had a troubled passage in the 1m 4f handicap, having been hampered at the start. She was always on the back foot from then onwards. The 3-year-old did manage to work her way back into the race and was making headway in the straight but then didn’t get a clear run a couple of times in the inside the final two furlongs.

Tribal Craft is better than her final finishing position of 7th suggests. There should be other days with this lightly raced filly and she can win a middle distance handicap or two when she gets more luck in the run.

Moll Davis – George Scott

Had looked a filly ahead of her mark after win at Hamilton and she should really have confirmed that on Wednesday, in the 1m 2f fillies handicap. She was travelling nicely on the inner coming into the straight but got no sort of run two furlongs out and had to be switched and was shuffled to the rear. It looked she would be well beaten but she finished off her race well to snatch what had looked an unlikely 5th.  The 3-year-old clearly remains on a winnable mark when all the cards fall right.

Thursday August 1^st – Day 3

Picture Frame – Saeed Bin Suroor

The daughter of Showcasing was drawn out wide in stall 16 in the 7f nursery handicap. She found herself at the rear and although she finished her race off well enough to take 6^th she was never involved.

A winner at Newbury on her previous start the filly. It looks she’s started life in nurseries off a workable mark and shouldn’t be judged to harshly on this performance. There is a nursery handicap in the filly in the coming weeks. Her Newbury win came on good to soft so any ease in the ground will be in her favour.

Friday August 2^nd – Day 4

History Writer – David Menuisier

The Golden Mile Handicap tends to produce plenty of hard luck stories and the likes of Seniority & Baltic Baron are going to be worth keeping onside in the coming weeks. The latter has the ability to land a decent pot when all the cards fall right. He maybe one for the big mile handicap at the upcoming York Ebor Festival. However, it’s the return of a previous eyecatcher.

History Writer wasn’t well drawn in stall 13 and was held up in the rear. He never really got competitive, but I did not him making some progress when the race was all over. He eventually finished 14^th of 20 but wasn’t subjected to hard race.

The drying ground wouldn’t have been in the gelding favour. Whilst he does act on quick ground his best performances have come with juice in the ground. His trainer thought before the race that he was still on a competitive mark so it maybe worth noting the horse when he gets easier under foot conditions.

Saturday August 3rd – Day 5

I haven’t a good chance to look at all the races on the Saturday card so it’s likely there are more eyecatchers to be found.

Breath Of Air – Charlie Hills

A winner at Newbury as a juvenile. He came into the race on the back of a good effort at Doncaster on return from a 66-day break.

The 3-year-old was held up here and was making steady headway on the inside coming to the furlong mark but got no run inside the final furlong and had to settle for 5^th.

He wouldn’t have beaten the progressive winner Land Of Legend, who had shown a good turn of foot to win his race, but with a better passage in the final stages of the race could well have been challenging for second.

Looks on a workable mark and can land a handicap, probably when dropped back into the calmer waters of Class 3 company.

Cheers

John

Hi all,

Well it took till day six for a winner at the Galway Festival, but it was worth the wait as Great Trango, early priced advised 20/1, won the day’s big handicap hurdle.

At Goodwood it was more frustrating as I opposed King’s Advice & Khaadem on price ground alone. However, Great Trango made up for it.

It’s the final day of the Galway Festival and we end an intense week of betting with a selection where we began the week over in Ireland.

You will be pleased to know next week won’t be as busy on the betting front.

Galway Festival – Day 7

2:45 – Dawn Raider doesn’t have the best of win records 1 win from 26 runs under rules but he’s on a good mark in this 3m ½ f handicap hurdle. The 7-year-old was doing all his best work at the finish when 4^th of 20 here 4-days ago. Horses that have run earlier in the week at the festival have a good record when turning out again during the week. The step up to 3m will suit and he looks nicely weighted on his 3^rd of 20 in a Pertemps Series Qualifier at Cheltenham back in October, off 6lb higher. Probably wouldn’t want the going to soften too much before post time although he was just one place behind Great Trango at Listowel on soft ground last September. Trainer Patrick Kelly won this race 12 months ago and Dawn Raider has each way claims at the very least.

Goodnightngodbless has returned to action in big field handicap hurdles in great form since a short break with her form figures being 212. The 6-year-old put in a career best effort when 2^nd of 13 at Killarney 19-days ago. Up a further 3lb but on the evidence of Killarney run her progress may not have levelled out just yet.

Verdict: Dawn Raider is my main hope here despite his poor win strike rate but the inform mare Goodnightngodbless could be worth a saver.

Dawn Raider – 12/1 @ Paddy Power – each way (paying 5 places 1/5 odds)

Goodnightngodbless – 6/1 @ Bet365 & Betway

Cheers

John

Hi all,

It was nice to land yesterday’s big race winner Beat Le Bon. Not just good to bag the winner but to also read the race well.

Sadly, Galway has let us down this week and I’m a shade frustrated that I didn’t go with Minella Beau in the Galway Blazers.

We move on. Unlike previous Saturdays we don’t have to worry about heavy showers changing the going before racing. With Goodwood set to be dry & sunny for the final day of the Festival .

Goodwood Festival – Day 5

1:50 – Qatar Stewards’ Sprint Handicap (Consolation Race For The Stewards’ Cup) (Class 2) – 6f

My starting point for this race is last year’s race. Tommy G (Stall 20) won 12 months ago off 4lb higher and last year’s winning jockey Silvestre De Sousa is back in the saddle. He was drawn more to the centre last years and is higher drawn here. In the past 11-years only 1 winner from 10 4 runners 12 placed have won from stall higher than 16 which is well below expectations.

The main positive for Tommy G is that the only main pace angle Ballyquin (Stall 19) is drawn near side to. The Andrew Balding trained runner is ante-post favourite in most bookies’ lists. The 4-year-old was 2nd of 15 at Ascot two starts back and occupied the same spot at Newmarket 42-days ago. He’s unexposed on turf, just the four starts and races off just 2lb higher than at Newmarket. James Doyle has been booked for the ride and he’s 3-12 25% +6 when teaming up with the trainer in the past 5-years. Given he looks the lone front runner in the field he’s got to be high on the shortlist. On the negative side 4-year-olds are only 1 winner from 81 runners 14 placed 17% in the race.

Tommy G – 10/1 @ Ladbrokes & Coral – each way (both paying 5 places 1/5 odds)

Ballyquin – 12/1 @ Coral – each way (paying 5 places 1/5 odds)

2:25 – Mark Johnston saddles a couple of live contenders: King’s Advice, unlucky in the Northumberland Plate before a decisive win at Newmarket over 1m 6f, in the process making it 3-3 over the distance. The quicker the ground the better and he’s 4 -4 on good or quicker ground. Up 7lb his last win which makes life harder, but the previous C&D winner, should remain competitive. Charles Kingsley is the second Johnston runner. The 4-year-old also comes into the race after a good win at Newmarket over 1m 6f, just 7-days ago. That was his first run over the distance so there could be more to come from this tough sort who’s just 3lb higher. Frankie Dettori has been booked for the ride and if the race doesn’t too quickly. Must be in the shake-up, even though he may be better on slightly easier surface. 

Outbox did make all to win a novice race at Leicester last September. He was well fancied (9/2) for the race that King’s Advice won at Newmarket but could only finish a 5 ¼ length 6th. I was expecting him to be ridden more prominently than he was that day. Still it was an improved effort and he’s capable of more progression.  He’s lightly raced for his age and he could be seen to better effect with a more aggressive ride here. Mind you stall 12 doesn’t help in that regard. He also might be better on a slightly easier surface.

Charles Kingsley – 6/1 – Gen

Outbox – 8/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

3:40 – Unibet Stewards’ Cup (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) – 6f

The big betting race of the Goodwood Festival. A wide-open renewal of this year’s race, as you would expect. Unlike the consolation race, horses drawn 1 to 14 are 4 winners from 144 runners 21 placed. Those drawn 15+ are 7 winners from 126 runners 20 placed.

Looking at the pace maps for the race. The mostly likely speed horses seem to be drawn middle to low.

Justanotherbottle (Stall 9) was beaten a short-head 12 months ago. He can now race off 4lb lower so has to be high on the betting shortlist. Not in great from on his three starts this year but this will have been the 5-year-olds target and he’s been well backed this week ante-post to go one better.

The 3-year-old Khaadem (Stall 3) was sent off just 7/1 for Commonwealth Cup at Royal Ascot. Ran a bit flat there but bounced back to form when runner-up in the Group 3 Hackwood Stakes at Newbury 14-days ago. He’s a classy sprinter but it will be no easy task off a mark of 107. Three-year-olds one the race in 2015 & 2016 with Khaadem’s trainer Charlie Hills saddling the 2015 winner. Could get a nice tow in the race from Lake Volta? A sprinter on the up and could be well handicapped.

Lake Volta (1), is a typical tough Mark Johnston horse he made all to win over C&D back in May, off 2lb lower. He’s since finished a close 5th in the Bunbury Cup off 3lb higher and second in the Scottish Stewards Cup, and 9th in last week’s International Stakes.  Seems ground versatile and handles a big field well. A reproduction of his C&D win puts him very much in the mix.

Flavius Titus (11), trained by Roger Varian who won the Wokingham with Cape Byron is also a strong contender. He’s been in good form this season with form figures 131 and j4lb higher than for the last of those wins at Newmarket. The 4-year-old’s best performances have come on quick ground and this is only his 6th start over 6f. Returns from a 56-day break but he’s won twice off longer lay off’s, so the absence is probably a positive rather than a negative.  Hard to see him being out of the money if he handles the track. Stablemate Spanish City was 1 ¼ lengths behind him at Newmarket. He’s just 3lb better off with Flavius Titus but has since finished a never nearer 4th in the Bunbury.Cup. The 6-year-old is very consistent but find winning hard. A fast runs 6f could be interesting especially as trainer opts for the first-time blinkers.

David O’Meara saddles Summerghand (6) & Arecibo (21). The first named was 5th in the Wokingham but wasn’t seen to best advantage in a small field conditions race at Haydock last time. The return to a big field, at track like Goodwood should be ideal. He’s got form with Flavius Titus early in the season. Big chance with Ryan Moore an eye-catching jockey booking. Possibly an even more interesting jockey booking is Frankie Dettori for the second O’Meara runner Arecibo. The ex -French trained 4-year-old has some decent form before arriving at his present yard. Got off the mark when winning at Ayr, on good to firm, three starts ago. He’s since run better when runner-up on his last two starts subsequent over 6f at Ripon & latterly at Ascot, 8 days ago. He was 33/1 earlier in the week but is half those odds now and will be shorter come post time given the ‘Frankie Factor’.

Verdict: Plenty in with a chance as you would expect for a race of this nature. My three against the field are Justanotherbottle, Flavius Titus & Lake Volta.

Justanotherbottle – 10/1 @ William Hill & Ladbrokes

Flavius Titus – 11/1 @ Ladbrokes & Coral

Lake Volta – 14/1 @ William Hill & Paddy Power – each way – (both paying 6 places 1/5 odds)

Galway Festival – Day 6

2:30 – A twenty runner 2m 7f handicap hurdle. I think Great Trango is a shade overpriced. If he was trained by Willie Mullins or Gordon Elliott he would be half his present odds. The 6-year-old really came alive at this time last year landing a flat handicap here 12 months ago and following up in a 3m Listowel handicap hurdle off 2lb lower. Both those wins came on testing ground, but he’s also got plenty of placed flat form on good to firm so underfoot conditions shouldn’t be much of a problem. Has had three starts since returning from a break and seems to be becoming to the boil at the right time. Had little chance from his wide draw in the 2m 1f flat handicap here on Monday. Still he was doing his best work at the end of the race to finish 8^th 20. Nice low weight of 9-13 and has sporting each way claims.

Great Trango – 20/1 @ William Hill – each way – (paying 4 placed ¼ odds)

Cheers

John

Hi all,

It’s turned into a tough couple of days at both Goodwood & Galway Festivals.

Goodwood Festival – Day 4

2:25 – Biometric beat Turgenev 1 ½ lengths in the Britannia Handicap. He’s now 10lb worse off in this Group 3 race but the selection has only had four career starts and is capable of more progress. Whilst Turgenev has since run disappointingly at Newmarket but does get the first time cheekpieces today. Duke Of Hazzard beat Turgenev & Momkin at Newmarket and there’s no reason why either horse should finish ahead of him.  The first-time blinkers worked at Newmarket but will they work a second time?

Biometric – 8/1 @ Bet365 & William Hill

3:00 – Unibet Golden Mile Handicap (Class 2) – 1m

The big betting race of the day and with 20 runners set to go to post it’s a tough puzzle to solve. The draw has been important. In the past 11 years. Runners horses drawn 16 or higher are 0 winners from 57 runners 6 placed in the past 11-years and only two horses have won from a double figure stall – 2 winners from 116 runners 16 placed. Those drawn in a single figure stall are 9 winners from 85 runners 28 placed.

Not many 3-year-olds have managed to get into the race, but they are healthy 4 winners from 19 runners +9 7 placed 37%.

There are two 3-year-olds in this year’s race Beat Le Bon & Dark Vision.

Mojito has been ante-post favourite since making all to win at Sandown after 637-days off the track. Up just 3lb but he remains on a winnable mark. If he doesn’t ‘bounce’ then he’s the most likely winner from a good draw in stall 9. For me he’s plenty short enough now and it may pay to look elsewhere for some value.

Beat Le Bon (Stall 3) – Comes into the race having won his last two starts here over 7f and followed up at Haydock again over 7f. The harder they go in a race the better he is as he showed at Haydock. He’s yet to win over mile but he should stay and looks capable of bit more progress. Perhaps crucially he’s nicely drawn in stall 3.

Dark Vision (Stall 19) – I really fancied him before the draw was made. Osin Murphy has been booked for the Mark Johnston trained 3-year-old. He won the Group 2 Vintage Stakes here last year so has course form. Last time out he was an encouraging 4^th of 14. Despite not getting the clearest of runs when making his effort two out, at Newmarket over 1m 2f. The drop back to a mile shouldn’t be a problem as he races in first time blinkers today. The big negative is of course his draw. Osin Murphy will have to ride the colt for luck.  If he wins it would be a big ‘trends’ buster.

Indeed (Stall 16) – Is another I really liked before the draw was made.The 4-year-old comes into the race after wins at Chelmsford and latterly at Newmarket. He was value for a bigger margin of victory than 1 ¼ length suggests and his trainer thinks he’s a Group horse in the making. He handled good ground well enough last time but might not want it to quicken up further. Only has a 3lb penalty to carry but that draw will be hard to overcome!

Verdict: Mojito’s claims are there for all to see. Beat Le Bon represents the 3-year-old’s and is also nicely drawn. If it wasn’t for their draws, I would put up both Dark Vision & Indeed but, on this occasion, I will just go with the latter.

Beat Le Bon – 9/1 @ William Hill & Ladbrokes

Indeed – 14/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

5:15 – The market for this 1m 3f handicap is headed by John Gosden, William Haggas and Roger Varian trained, lightly raced 3-year-olds. Just behind them in the betting could be the value play in the race. Fox Vardy, trained Martyn Meade, is also lightly raced.  He still looked green when winning at Windsor on his handicap debut 39-days ago. Has been put up 6lb for that win but the runner-up has won since so the form looks solid. If he handles this unique track, he will go close.

Fox Vardy – 9/1 @Bet365

Galway Festival – Day 5

I am struggling to pick winners at Galway Festival but hope springs eternal as the saying goes.

6:15 – Guinness Galway Blazers Handicap Chase – 2m 6 ½ f

It looks a very strong renewal of this historic handicap chase. My shortlist includes:

Mine Now was second in a Handicap Hurdle her two years ago and last year was a close third in this race 12 months ago, off 1lb lower. This will have been the 11-year-olds target, had a recent run in a charity race on the flat, so will be fully fit in his attempt to go two places better.

Hash Brown twice a winner over C&D back in 2015 & 2016. Last of those wins was his last win and he races off 6lb lower now. Showed he retains ability when runner-up at Kilbeggan two starts back but was disappointing at Limerick 20-days ago. Hopes rest on return to Galway and if he cuts out the mistakes must be considered.

Minella Beau, trained by Willie Mullins, won a beginners’ chase over C&D 12 months ago. Has been a shade disappointing since with form figures 3FPP. Although he was still in contention when falling in the Cork National, sent off 5/1 favourite that day.  Has a 218-day layoff to overcome but he’s 3 wins from 4 runs, when returning from a 70+day absence. The 8-year-old looks on a competitive mark

Tesseract trained by Joseph O’Brien completes the shortlist. Not the most consistent of chasers but he did run well when 2^nd of 12 in the Midlands National at Kilbeggan 14-days ago. But for a slight mistake at the second last he might well have won that day. The 8-year-old gets the first time cheekpieces which could make all the difference.

Treasure Chest is a stablemate of Tesseract. The 6-year-old is now 2-6 over fences and comes into the race on the back of wins at Clonmel & Roscommon. Step’s up from an extended 2m to 2m 6 ½ f which he isn’t certain to stay on breeding.  His jumping will also be tested around here but if the ground stays on the good side and his stamina holds out, then he should be there or thereabouts at the finish.

Verdict: Tesseract should be up to winning a race like this, as should Minella Beau and Mine Now has each way claims.

Tesseract – 6/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

Mine Now -16/1 @ Bet365 – each way – (paying 4 places ¼ odds)

6:50 – Guinness Handicap – 1m 4f

With €70,800 on offer to the winner it attracted a good field of horses. Mr Adjudicator is the favourite to win after his 4^th of 20 here on Monday. He had a luckless run that day and would surely have won with a clear passage. He’s’ well handicapped but does drop back half a mile in trip.  Stablemate Legal Spin finished further back in that race, but he was another who didn’t get much of a run and is better than his final position suggests.  He remains open to progress on the flat and maybe better suited to this distance than his better fancied stablemate. He’s got each way claims. Tudor City won the Galway Hurdle on Thursday for Tony Martin but probably won’t run.

The one I do like is War Diary. The 4-year-old has only had the four career starts, winning his last two. Two starts back he won a Clonmel maiden over 1m 1 ½ f before improving to win a valuable Curragh handicap over today’s distance. The handicapper has put him up 5lb for that win but there should be more to come from him over middle distances and he could be a future pattern horse. Stall 11 could have been better, and he might prefer some more juice in the ground. But if he handles the track must be considered a live contender.

Verdict: Mr Adjudicator looks handicapped to win but the drop-in trip might Legal Spin better and he looks each way value. I also like the chances of War Diary.

Legal Spin – 14/1 @ William Hill –  each way – (paying 4 places 1/5 odds)

War Diary – 9/1 @ Paddy Power

Cheers

John

Hi all,

Qatar Goodwood Festival – Day 1

1:50 – The Trader has had a gelding operation since his last run at Newmarket 20-days ago. If the procedure has had the desired effect, then the Mark Johnston trained runner looks on a competitive mark.

Fox Premier had looked a progressive middle-distance handicapper when winning at Chelmsford (beat The Trader) & Sandown back in May. He had a rough passage when down the field in the King George V Handicap at Royal Ascot and should be judged to harshly on that run. The drop back to 1m2f should be in his favour. He beat The Trader ½ length at Chelmsford but is now 13lb worse off with the Mark Johnston horse.

Walkinthesand & Korcho were first & second in a valuable 1m 2f handicap at Newmarket 20-days ago. The first named won by a length that day, he’s progressive and looked a Group horse in the making. Trainer Richard Hannon won this race in 2015. Korcho is also going the right way and shouldn’t be far away either.

Sinjaari, head the market. He wasn’t seen to best effect from his wide draw at Royal Ascot. He’s better judged on his short head second to Headman in the London Gold Cup, two starts back. Looks to have a favourites chance dropped to 1m 2f.

Walkinthesand – 13/2 @ Bet365 & Paddy Power

The Trader – 14/1 @ Paddy Power – each way – (paying 5 places 1/5 odds)

3:35 – The feature race of day three is the Group 1 Nassau Stakes.  

Hermosa, did the English/Irish 1,000 Guineas Double in the spring before finishing runner-up in the Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot. Steps up to 1m 2f but on pedigree she should be suited to it. Sets the standard and will be hard to beat.

Mehdaayih, won the Cheshire Oaks in impressive style and was then sent off the 11/4 favourite for the Oaks but had a rough passage that day and could only finish 7th of 14 at Epsom. Was able to show her true form when winning 1m 4f Group 2 at Saint-cloud 32-days ago. The drop back in trip won’t be a problem and trainer John Gosden did win this race three times between 2012 & 2014.

Rawdaa, trained by Sir Michael Stoute is an improving 4-year-old who ran Lah Ti Dar to a neck in Group 2 at York in May. Dropped back to a mile, she ran well to finish runner-up in the Group 2 Duke Of Cambridge Stakes at Royal Ascot. The return to 1m 2f will be in her favour and her improvement may not have levelled out. She can run well and has each way claims.

Channel, won the Prix Diane (French Oaks) on her last start. Just 1 ¼ lengths separated the first six home that day in what was a slowly run race which turned into a bit of sprint to the line. Hopefully a better run race can see the daughter of Nathanial in an even better light. The bookies clearly don’t rate the form of the race as they have her at what looks a generous price. She’s 15/2 with Paddy Power and just 6/1 with William Hill.

Channel – 15/2 @ Paddy Power & Bet365

5:20 – The most interesting runner is the French trained runner Jungle Speed who won a 6f handicap, in France, when last in action, 103-days ago. It’s hard to say whether he’s well handicapped or not off 90 but he’s only had the five career starts so could be capable of better.  However, his trainer Fabrice Chappet is 3-8 38% with his runners in the past 14-days and know how to win a sprint in Britain as he trained the winner of the sprint on All Weather Finals Day.

Jungle Speed – 18/1 @ William Hill – each way – (paying 5 places 1/5 odds)

Galway Festival – Day 4

4:55 – Guinness Galway Hurdle Handicap (Grade A) – 2m

I’m going with a couple of Willie Mullins runners here. Riven Light is the class horse of the race based on his flat form and. He’s 1 win from 6 runs over hurdles and the 7-year-old hasn’t been seen over the obstacles since finishing runner-up in a novice hurdle at the 2017 Punchestown Festival. He hadn’t seemed a natural over hurdles, needs jump better than during his novice season, but he’s an incredibly well handicapped horse if he can translate his ability on the level to hurdles. Twice a winner at Galway there are no issues with the track.

The other Mullins runner who appeals is another useful flat performer in Stratum. A C&D maiden hurdle winner back in September 2017, 2 wins from 6 runs over hurdles, the 6-year-old put in his best performance over hurdles in a valuable 2m 4f Punchestown Handicap back in May when 4^th of 20 behind stablemate Mr Adjudicator. Plenty of stamina for a strongly run 2m and a useful 7lb conditional has been booked for the ride.

Riven Light – 10/1 @ Ladbrokes & Paddy Power

Stratum – 12/1 @ Bet365

Cheers

John

Hi all,

A tough day at the office but at least Sir Dancealot dug us out of a hole when winning the Lennox Stakes for the second year running.

Qatar Goodwood Festival – Day 2

1:50 – Trainer Ian Williams is 3 winners from 12 runners 25% +61 4 placed 33% with his runners in this race since 2008. He saddles two live contenders in The Grand Visir & Zubayr. The former won the 2m 4f Ascot Stakes, not so good drop back down 2m at Newbury, but the return today’s marathon trip should suit. Best form has come with some juice in the ground but should be fine on good. Zubayr had a confidence boosting win over hurdles at Southwell 38-days ago. Hasn’t been the easiest to win with but is on a competitive mark for a return to the flat so needs respecting.

Zubayr – 16/1 @ Paddy Power – each way (paying 5 places 1/5 odds)

2:25 – Le Don De Vie, has won his last two starts both at Epsom. Having his first run since switching to the Hughie Morrison stable. The handicapper has put him up 10lb for the last of those wins. Steps up to 1m 4f today but on pedigree should stay. There should be a good pace to chase so it may pay to take a chance with one of the more patiently ridden horses.

Desert Icon came from behind to win on his handicap debut at Salisbury 35-days ago. All his four runs have come on good to firm so yesterday’s rain and with it slightly easier ground will be an unknown for the son of Sea The Stars.

Dubai Tradition has won both his last two starts over 1m4f.  Making all at Pontefract and on his handicap debut at Newmarket 18-days ago. The colt has Group entries, including the St Leger, is on the upgrade, just four career starts, but won’t find it easy to dominate here. He’s got a good draw in 5 though which puts him very much in the mix.

Le Don De Vie – 10/1 @ Bet365 & Paddy Power

Dubai Tradition – 11/1 @ Bet365 & Paddy Power

3:35 – Qatar Sussex Stakes (Group 1) – 1m

The race of the day, well at least this side of the Irish Sea.  At the prices I’m going to take on the front two in the market with Phoenix Of Spain & Lord Glitters. The former was an impressive winner of the won the Irish 2,000 Guineas on his seasonal reappearance. He holds favourite Too Darn Hot on that running. However, he disappointed when only 6th behind Circus Maximus & Too Darn Hot at Royal Ascot. He’s surely better than that run and I’m hoping he can bounce back here. At 6/1 he looks the value bet of the 3-year-old’s and the bookies seem to have overreacted to his Ascot run.

Lord Glitters, won the Group 1 Queen Anne at Royal Ascot on his last start. The 6-year-old was a close-up 3rd in this race 12 months ago and wouldn’t have been suited by the slow early gallop. Must give weight to three-year-old’s, which won’t be easy. However, the rain that fell on Tuesday will be in his favour and he should get a better pace to chase than last year.

Phoenix Of Spain – 6/1 @ William Hill & BetVictor

Lord Glitters – 7/1 @ Paddy Power

Galway Festival – Day 3

7:20 – thetote.com Galway Plate (Handicap Chase) – 2m 6 ½ f

The race of the day at the Galway Festival, if not the week. Twenty-two runners have been declared to go to post and you can give most of the field some sort of chance. The last four renewals of this great race have gone to Gordon Elliott & Henry De Bromhead. The former saddles five and the latter three this year. Of those eight runners the pair I like most are the Henry De Bromhead trained Poker Party & Barra trained by Gordon Elliott. The former was going to win comfortably when falling at the last in the Midlands National at Kilbeggan and looks to be on a winnable mark if she’s recovered. The 8-year-old has plenty of back class, finished third in the Coral Cup last year and was runner-up to Let’s Dance in the Mares Novices’ Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival in 2017. Will stay the trip and must be respected.

Poker Party is an interesting second season chaser and the 7-year-old won twice at Naas back in January & February. He ended last season with a good third placed effort in a valuable novices’ handicap chase at the Punchestown Festival. Is now 10lb higher than at Naas but has scope for more progression this season. Yet to race beyond 2m 5f over fences but gives the impression today’s step up in trip will suit.

Of the rest I like Snugsborough Benny. The 9-year-old won the Galway Blazers over C&D at last years Festival off 16lb lower and ended last season when 4^th of 30 in the Irish Grand National. Today’s drop in trip will suit him more and he should get a good pace to chase. Had recent spin over hurdles which should put him spot fitness wise.

Regal Encore is well handicapped on his best form, 6lb lower than his last win, but may find the trip a bit on the short side.

Pravalaguna is more interesting. The Willie Mullins trained mare was in the lead and very much in contention when coming down four out in the Punchestown race that Poker Party finished third in.  The 7-year-old has had two runs over hurdles since that mishap. Her jumping will be tested here but if she can cut out the mistakes that usually end her race, she’s got a chance.

Snugsborough Benny – 12/1 @ William Hill & Paddy Power

Barra – 14/1 @ Bet365 & Betway

Poker Party – 18/1 @ Bet365 – each way (paying 4 places ¼ odds)

Cheers

John

Hi all,

Get yourself strapped in and get ready for a betting rollercoaster with the start of five-days of high-class racing at the Qatar Goodwood Festival, in addition we have day two of the Galway Festival.  

I have selections from both meetings. Let’s begin on the South Downs at Goodwood.

Goodwood Festival – Day 1

1:50 – A competitive 1m 2f handicap gets the meeting underway.  Mark Johnston has won this race four times in the past ten years, so his runner Aquarium must be respected. The 4-year-old has dropped down to his last winning mark but remains vulnerable to any improvers in the field. Mountain Hunter won two handicaps in Meydan over the winter, the last of which came off 2lb lower. The 5-year-old was winner here in 2017 over a furlong shorter so there should be no issues with the track. Cieran Fallon takes off a valuable 5lb off the horses back and shouldn’t be far away at the finish. Jazeel, a winner at Sandown two starts back before finishing 9th of 21 in the John Smith’s Cup 17-days. He continues to look like a progressive handicapper and could be better suited by the race than at York. Beringer, trained by Alan King, gets a 1lb for his short head second to Jazeel at Sandown and there won’t be much between the pair again. Beringer ran well here last year on his only start at the course and seems to have a decent draw in stall 8. Soto Sizzler, is surprisingly dropped back to a 1m 2f here given all his wins have come at 1m 4f and he’s got an Ebor entry. Looked to have a good chance of the hat trick at Kempton 27-days ago but had to settle for the runner-up spot. Won here 12 months ago and has since added two wins at Epsom which shows he goes very well on unique courses like here.

Beringer – 8/1 @ William Hill & Paddy Power

Soto Sizzler – 9/1 @ Paddy Power

2:25 – This looks an above average renewal of the Vintage Stakes and could be the race of the meeting. The favourite Pinatubo impressed when winning the Chesham Stakes but must give 3lb to most of his rivals, including Chesham runner-up Lope Y Fernandez. There shouldn’t be much between the pair. Mystery Power won’t have any problem if the showers arrive as he won at Haydock on his racecourse debut on good to soft. Last time out he showed a good battling attitude to win the Group 2 Superlative Stakes at Newmarket. Like the favourite he must give 3lb to his rivals. The Visinari bubble slightly burst when he finished third in the July Cup. He will be suited by the step up to 7f and trainer Mark Johnston won this race last year. Positive created a positive impression when running out an easy winner at Salisbury on his racecourse debut. After the race trainer Clive Cox told the Racing Post, “Positive is a very nice youngster and as good we have had” Given the trainer has had plenty of good juveniles, including winning this race in 2009, that’s high praise. This looks a tough ask on just his second start, but he’s got plenty of scope for improvement.

Positive – 12/1 @ Bet365 & Paddy Power

3:00 – Hey Gaman & Zaaki head the market for this 7f Group 2 race. Sir Dancealot came from first to last to win this last year. If he gets his optimum conditions; good ground and 7f, he’s got a good chance of back to back wins in the race. Trainer David Elsworth remains on the cold list, 107-days since his last win, which is a slight negative. The 3-year-old Space Traveller won the Jersey Stakes at Royal Ascot and bids to follow Strong Suit who did the Jersey/Lennox double in 2011.

Sir Dancealot – 13/2 @ William Hill & Ladbrokes

4:45 – A Momentofmadness, was beaten just a short head in this race two years ago, although ran poorly last year. A winner of the Portland Handicap last September off 1lb higher. A reproduction of that run would be good enough here. That said he hasn’t run that well on his four starts this season, apart from his seasonal reappearance. Count Otto, has yet to win over the minimum trip but could be suited by a strongly run 5f. He was unlucky in the run in this race 12 months ago and if the cards fall better today has to be respected. A winner at Epsom 6-days he hails from the inform Amanda Perrett stable.

Count Otto – 12/1 @ William Hill & Ladbrokes – each way  – (both paying 5 places 1/5 odds)

5:15 – A tricky fillies handicap to conclude the card. My two darts against the field are Clara Peeters, trained by local trainer Gary Moore looks nicely drawn in stall 3. The handicapper only put her 2lb for her Newmarket win 31-days ago. She looks capable of a more improvement and finished runner-up over C&D on her seasonal reappearance in May. Will probably prefer the showers to stay away.  Nkosikazi, travelled well in a prominent position at Newmarket on her last start and beat the runners on her side to finish second. Looks like she will face competition for the lead here but is in form and looks capable off her mark.

Clara Peeters – 9/1 @ William Hill & Coral

Nkosikazi – 5/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

Galway Festival – Day 2

7:40 – Numerian – A Royal Ascot eyecatcher, he showed he wasn’t just an all-weather horse when running well to finish 5^th of 28 in the Britannia Handicap. Didn’t get the clearest of passages twice during the race so did well to finish as close as he did. Today’s extra ½ f should suit the 3-year-ol as should the stiff finish. Nicely drawn in stall 4 and trainer Joseph O’Brien was among the winners on Day 1 of the meeting. Hamley won two handicaps last September, the latter at the Curragh off 4lb lower. Ran well when 4^th of 9 at Leopardstown 19-days ago, in a race that wasn’t run to suit. The 6-year-old drops back in trip but also gets the first-time blinkers today. Each way claims if the headgear works the trick.

Numerian – 4/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

Hamley – 18/1 @ William Hill – each way – (paying 4 places ¼ odds)

8:10 – Dani’s Boy won a C&D handicap here 12 months ago off 1lb lower. Not at that level over hurdles and flat since but given his liking for the track must be respected. Had spin over hurdles 18-days and should be spot on fitness wise today.

Dani’s Boy – 16/1 @ Coral -each way – (paying 4 places ¼ odds)

Cheers

John

Hi all,

Horse racing doesn’t get any busier than this week with Goodwood & Galway Festivals. The latter starts today, and Goodwood begins five days of racing on the South Downs on Tuesday.  I have selections from three races at Galway for you today.

Galway Festival

5:55 – The two I like most in this handicap hurdle are: Convara & Al Sakb. The latter won a Ballinrobe maiden hurdle on good ground 6-days ago. The first time cheekpieces may well have been responsible for the selection’s improvement. Interestingly the cheekpieces are replaced by first time blinkers today and if new headgear brings out more improvement the 6-year-old can go close here.

Convara impressed when winning a Down Royal maiden on his last start over hurdles back in June. The 5-year-old has twice respectably on the flat since and could well be ahead of his mark. Useful 5lb conditional Darragh O’Keeffe, who rode the gelding at Down Royal keeps the ride. Slight concern about the ground for the selection, as he probably prefers good rather than softer underfoot conditions.

Favourite Lingar and Dumhach Thra also need respecting in an open looking race but I’m happy to go with Convara & Al Sakb.

Convara – 12/1 @ William Hill & Paddy Power

Al Sakb – 12/1 @ William Hill

7:05 – A flat handicap for 3-year-old only.

Calling Time, comes into the race looking for a hat trick after recent wins at Roscommon and Killarney. The top weight looks capable of going close, although stall 11 could be better.

Eagles Rock, was only beaten ½ length at Gowran Park 43-days ago and prior to that had won a Listowel handicap over today’s trip, off 3lb lower. The filly was runner-up to 1,000 Guineas heroine Hermosa over C&D here 12 months ago. A literal interpretation of that form would mean she’s a well handicapped horse off 76.

Improving, was a close-up 4^th to Eagles Rock at Listowel, despite not the clearest of passages. At the revised weights there shouldn’t be much between the pair here but it’s worth noting that was the gelding’s seasonal reappearance. He built on that effort when a ½ length second at Limerick over 6 ½ f last month. Has a good draw in stall one and looks set for a bold show.

Silver Service is also nicely drawn in stall 2. The filly won two nursery’s last July & August. She also has course form when only beaten a length into 4^th over C&D 12 months ago. Looked to becoming into form for the first time this season when 4^th of 7 at Naas 23-days ago. The handicapper has eased her 2lb since her last run. There is a slight stamina doubt for 7f but she finished off her race well enough at Naas to think she will stay the trip and the first time hood has been enlisted. Trainer Michael Mulvany won this in 2018 and he could be set for back to back wins in the race.

Improving – 9/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

Silver Service – 14/1 @ Bet365

7:40 – It’s not often that an amateur riders’ race is the feature race at a meeting like this but there is €70,800 on offer to the winner of this 2m 1f flat handicap which has predictably attracted a big field of 20 runners.

My three against the field are: Baba Boom, Legal Spin & Mr Everest.

Baba Boom, was last seen in action winning a 1m 4f handicap here 12 months ago. He now runs in the colours of J P McManus who like a winner or two at the Galway Festival. Fitness shouldn’t be an issue as the 4-year-old was only beaten ¾ length on his first start last season. He’s only had the seven starts, so could be capable of more progress despite being 9lb higher than his last win.  Top amateur Derek O’Connor takes the ride.

Legal Spin, could be the pick of the four Willie Mullins trained runners. The 4-year-old returned to action with a ¾ length 2^nd of 13 at the Curragh 30-days ago. Up 3lb since his Curragh run. He’s only had the 6 career starts so remains open to further progress and looks set to go well for a trainer who has won the last two running’s of this race.

Mr Everest, trained by Tony Martin who won this race in 2013 & 2014. The 6-year-old was a decisive winner of a heavy ground Listowel 1m 6f handicap last September before going onto win the November Handicap at Naas on his final start of 2018. Just the one run over hurdles in 2019, when 2^nd of 20 at Fairyhouse back in April but no doubt he’s been aimed at this race. Ran well over hurdles here 12 months ago so the track should hold no terrors for the selection and he’s very effective in a big field. Sure, to go well if his wide draw in 17 isn’t an inconvenience.

Legal Spin – 8/1 @ Bet365 or 15/2 – Gen

Mr Everest – 8/1 – Gen

Baba Boom – 12/1 @ William Hill – each way (paying 5 places 1/5 odds)

Back tomorrow with selections for Goodwood and no doubt Galway.

Cheers

John

Hi all,

After last Saturday hugely profitable day. It was always going to be hard to replicate it this week and so it proved. However, at least Kaeso and Blue Mist ran great races to finish 2^nd & 3^rd respectably in the big field International Stakes at Ascot. Those placed efforts kept losses down to a minimum.

On the eve of the Goodwood & Galway Festival’s not surprisingly Sunday’s racing isn’t great although there’s a decent enough card at Pontefract.

It’s set to be a very busy week on the betting front, and I even have a couple of selections running at Pontefract.

Pontefract

3:20 – Sod’s Law, should be suited by today’s rain which should have eased the ground at Pontefract. The 4-year-old won here over a mile (good to soft) last October off today’s mark and wasn’t disgraced, when 3^rd of 6 in a better race at Nottingham 9-days ago, on his first start at today’s distance. Takes a slight drop in class here and although his stamina for 1m 2f must be fully proved on an easy surface he should be fine.  Stall 8 could be better but at least we know he’s effective at the course. Trainer Hughie Morrison has his horses running well at present so there are plenty of ticks in the right boxes for the top weight.

Sod’s Law – 7/2 – Gen

3:55 – This Listed race over a mile is the feature race of Pontefract’s Sunday card. Di Fede won a soft ground, 7f Listed race at Ascot last October and wasn’t disgraced when a 4 ½ length, 5^th of 17 in a Group 2 at the same track two starts back. The form of that race looks solid as the 4^th has since gone onto win a Group 1 at Newmarket and the 8^th a Group 2 at the Curragh. The filly finished third here as 2-year-old so the track won’t be an issue and any rain will be in her favour.

De Fede – 7/2 – Gen

Cheers

John