Category: Victor Value

Hi all,

The start of a new month and welcome to autumn. Yesterday’s selections wiped out Friday’s profit which kind of sums up the last two months which have been tough.

It’s a tough day for solid betting propositions. However, there are a couple of interesting ones.

Worcester

3:40 – Rubys Cube seemed to improve for the step up to 2m 7f at around this time last year with form figures 21 over C&D.  Up 4lb for the last of those wins but she remains lightly raced enough to think she can win over hurdles again off a mark of 89. Fitness must be taken on trust as this will be the mares first start for 364-days but Sean Bowen who on her last time is in the saddle and I think she will go well.

Rubys Cube – 5/1 – Gen

Cork

4:50 – It’s a moderate sprint handicap but 20 runners have been declared to go to post.

Polly Douglas holds no secret from the handicapper and she’s 5 wins from 36 runs 13 placed on turf. But as she showed when winning at Down Royal back in May she’s at her best over 5f and when good is in the going description. The 6-year-old’s record under such conditions is a healthy 3 wins from 8 runs 38% +11.5 4 placed. The mare is back down to her last winning mark and as long as the ground is no worse than good to yielding holds each way claims.  

Tide Of Time has been in good form of late. The 5-year-old won at Down Royal three starts back, off 6lb lower, and has since run well in defeat at the Curragh and latterly when runner-up to Hathiq at Tipperary 13-days ago. Sent off the 9/4 favourite at Tipperary he shouldn’t be far away here and could be worth a saver.

Polly Douglas – 16/1 @ William Hill – each way – (Paying 5 places 1/5 odds)

Tide Of Time – 9/2 @ William Hill

It doesn’t look a busy week on the betting front but if there are any selections then I will post them up by 8am each morning.

Cheers

John

Hi all,

A healthy profit gained to advised prices courtesy of Blairmayne’s win at the Curragh and Jabbaar’s third placing at Hamilton.

Hopefully more of the same on Saturday. It’s not one of the best Saturday’s of the season betting wise but the Group 3 Solario Stakes at Sandown is from a class perspective a good-looking race.

I have selections running at Sandown, Chester and Chelmsford.

Sandown

1:50 – Justanotherbottle not for the first time was well backed to win, and not for the first time let his backers down at York last week.  He didn’t run badly to finish 3 ¼ length off the winner in 9th and is a well-handicapped horse when on a going day. He drops back to a stiff 5f today which could suit but on the negative side the trainer form could be better and stall 11 of 12 isn’t the best. Embour is another runner who is dropping back to the minimum trip here. The 4-year-old was beaten just a nose at Goodwood 8-days ago off 1lb lower. He remains in good form and this a slight drop in class for him. Jumira Bridge put in a career best when winning over C&D back in July. Not at that level on four subsequent starts but C&D form always needs respecting over this stiff 5f. Only Spoofing could only finish 3^rd at Chelmsford last time. Prior to that he had won three turf handicaps on the trot. All three wins had come over stiff 5f’s so Sandown should suit in that regard. Up 7lb since his last win at Ascot he’s got a good draw in stall one and can go well.

Verdict: Course form is always useful here over 5f which brings Jumira Bridge firmly into the mix. Justanotherbottle will win a race like this but his wide draw is off-putting. That leaves Embour & Only Spoofing with a slight preference for the former.

Embour – 15/2 @ William Hill

2:25 – A1m 2f Class 2 handicap. Country, trained by William Haggas, won at Redcar on his handicap debut. Comes into this looking for a fourth successive win and is up 5lb in a stronger race. Capable of better but at around 9/4 doesn’t appeal from a value perspective. Migration won over C&D last time. He’s up 6lb but is another capable of more progress. Doesn’t want to hit the front to early, can idle when hitting the front, but if he gets the race run to suit should go close for the in-form David Menuisier stable. Solid Stone makes a quick return to action after finishing runner-up at Yarmouth 6-days ago. The 3-year-old wasn’t suited by how the race was run that day and remains capable of better returned to 1m 2f. Mordin & Hyanna both have form here. The former has a capable 7lb claimer in the saddle but may prefer a bit more ease in the ground. Meanwhile Hyanna was only beaten a short neck into 3^rd behind Jazeel over C&D three starts back. A reproduction of that run would see the filly go close again. Ventura Knight bounced back to form when 3^rd of 14 to the useful Forest Of Dean at York 7-days ago. If the blinkers work for a second time he has to be taken seriously.

Verdict: Country is a potential winner but he’s plenty short enough in the betting. I’m expecting better run from Solid Stone returned to 1m 2f. Migration won over C&D and looks worth a bet ti follow up.

Migration – 7/2 @ William Hill & Bet365

3:35 – Betway Solario Stakes (Group 3) – 7f

The likes of Too Darn Hot, Masar and Kingman have won this race since 2013 and this year’s renewal look up to standard.

Positive built on the promise of his racecourse debut win to finish runner-up to Pinatubo in the Vintage Stakes at Goodwood 32-days ago. The Mark Johnston trained Visinari finished well behind Positive at Goodwood but he’s big tall colt who didn’t seem totally at ease with the track. This track should suit him better and remains open to plenty of improvement. Al Suhail beat three rivals fairly comfortably at Yarmouth last time. This a step up in class for the colt and his price looks plenty short enough compared to the likes of Postive & Visinari who have superior form so far. Still he’s capable of much better and should go well. Trainer Andrew Balding won this race in 2016 and saddles Kameko who won over C&D on his racecourse debut 37-days. Like Al Suhail he needs to make a big jump in improvement to win a race like this, but thats possible as the son of Kitten’s Joy is bred to be useful.

Verdict: I think Kameko will outrun his oddsbut I’m siding with Visinari to show us he’s better than able to show last time.

Visinari – 11/2 @ Paddy Power or 5/1 – Gen

Chester

2:10 – Oh This is Us & Lake Volta were 1^st & 3^rd in this race 12 months ago. Both are racing below last years marks with Lake Volta getting 2lb for a 1 ¼ length defeat. There shouldn’t be much between the pair again. Arguably the most interesting runner in the field is Aljady, trained by Richard Fahey. The 4-year-old looked set for a good season when 3^rd of 21 at York back in May. Nowhere near that form on two subsequent starts but there was a bit more encouragement on his last start at Goodwood. He’s now 1lb below last years winning mark and gets the first time cheekpieces in a bid to spark him up. First run at Chester but if the headgear does the trick and if he handles the ‘twists n turns’ of Chester he’s handicapped to go close.

Verdict: If the cards fall right for Oh This Is Us he looks the most likely winner but at the prices I just prefer Lake Volta with Aljady worth an each-way play.

Lake Volta – 13/2 @ Bet365 or 6/1 – Gen

Aljady – 20/1 @ Bet365 – each way or 16/1 @ William Hill -each way – (paying 3 places ¼ odds)

Chelmsford

7:15 – Betfred Chelmsford City Cup (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) – 7f

It’s not often that the most valuable race on a Saturday is being run during the evening but it is today. With £100,000 in added prize money this 7f Class 2 handicap is the richest race in the UK & Ireland today. Given the money on offer it’s attracted a big field of runners and it looks a competitive handicap.

Vale Of Kent was 2^nd of 18 at York 9-days ago, beaten just a head. He’s been put up 4lb by the handicapper but can run off the same mark as at York. A reproduction last week’s run would see the previous C&D winner go close.

Cenotaph won this race last off 1lb lower. He’s a far better horse on the synthetics than grass and is 3-3 at Chelmsford. Racing in first time cheekpieces, out of stall 2 he should be bang there for the inform Simon Crisford yard.

Blue Mist was 3^rd of 23 in a valuable 7f handicap at Ascot 35-days ago.  The 4-year-old is on a competitive mark and trainer Roger Charlton is 7-23 in the past 14-days. Might be better over a mile but he’s capable of being there or thereabouts from stall 5.

Habub has only had the four career starts but he’s 3-3 on the all-weather with the last of those wins coming over C&D 21-days ago. Probably capable of better and if he can get an uncontested lead he would be very dangerous.

Cliffs Of Capri caught the eye at Goodwood 7-days ago when finishing 4th to Salute the Soldier over today’s trip The 5-year-old was very much in contention on the inside furlong out but didn’t get a run when he needed it. He’s just 1lb higher than for his last win at Ascot over 7f last October. Will need luck in the run from stall but if he gets it has each way claims.

Verdict: This is a tough one. Cenotaph should be favourite and will make a bold bid for back to back wins in the race. I would prefer to see Blue Mist tried over a mile but he’s capable of winning a race like this. Habub has the most potential for improvement and shouldn’t be far away. At a bigger price Cliff of Capri has definite each way claims if he gets luck in the run.

Cenotaph – 6/1 @ Bet365 or 5/1 – Gen

Cliffs Of Capri – 14/1 @ Paddy Power & William Hill (both paying 4 places 1/5 odds)

Cheers

John

Hi all,

The weekend betting action starts on Friday. There’s a competitive card at the Curragh with group races and the Irish Cambridgeshire. I have a couple lively outsiders at the Curragh. This side of the Irish Sea there are two decent handicaps at Thirsk and Hamilton in which I have selections.

Curragh

5:50 – Just a 24 runner, 6f handicap puzzle to solve.  Castletownshend is a rare flat runner for Ted Walsh. The 4-year-old remains maiden after 13 starts but has run well in sprint handicaps, including two starts back, when getting going to late here over 5f. Needs all the cards to fall right but is on a competitive mark when they do. Blairmayne’s best three Racing Post Ratings have come over C&D on good to firm or good to yielding. The 6-year-old normally runs his race and is just 1lb higher than his last win back in May. More than capable of winning this from stall 24.

Castletownshend – 20/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes – each way – (paying 5 places 1/5 odds)

Blairmayne – 20/1 @ Bet365 – each way – (paying 4 places ¼ odds)

6:50 – Tote Irish Cambridgeshire (Premier Handicap) – 1m

With €100,000 in guaranteed prize money not surprisingly the race has attracted a big field of runners.

Trading Point, a three-time winner when trained in the UK, all on a sound surface, made a good start for trainer Damian English when runner-up in the Irish Lincolnshire at Naas back in March. The 5-year-old wasn’t at the same level of form on his next four starts but bounced back to form when runner-up over C&D 21-days ago. The handicapper has nudged him up 2lb for that run but remains on competitive mark from a potentially good draw in 25. Osin Murphy has been booked for the ride and he shouldn’t be far away.

Trading Point – 16/1 @ Paddy Power & William Hill – each way – (paying 5 places 1/5 odds)

Thirsk

3:40 – Sixteen go to post for this 6f Class 3 sprint handicap. Plenty of old favourites and you can nake a case out for more than half of the field.

Bielsa has only had two career starts winning both at Redcar and Doncaster. The 4-year-old has been off the track for 104-days since his last win and makes his handicap debut off what looks a decent mark. Goes well fresh and should be in the mix.

Jawaal ran his best race since joining present trainer Michael Dods when finishing third to stablemate Dakota Gold, who’s since gone onto win two since. Looked to be travelling like the winner when taking it up inside the final furlong but was just run out of it. That was a career best from the 4-year-old who races off just 1lb higher.

Just a short head in front of Jawaal at York was Muscika. The 5-year-old has since gone on to run respectably in two subsequent starts, including when 4^th of 15 in the Great St Wilfrid Handicap at Ripon. Won this race 12 months ago, off 5lb lower and won over C&D back in May. Needs to find a bit more to win this time but Harrison Shaw takes off a useful 5lb.

Of the rest; Wentworth Falls is a better on a quicker surface but is on a competitive mark. Golden Apollo & Tommy Taylor are on winnable marks, if on a going day, but both find winning hard. Flying Pursuit & Captain Colby are very well handicapped if bouncing back to form, but both have struggled form this season. Multiple course winner The Armed Man can win this on a going day but probably wants faster ground. Meanwhile Al Qahwa who makes his seasonal reappearance, has run well first time up, is a serious contender but is probably better with more ease in the ground.

Verdict: Bielsa could be ahead of the handicapper. I wouldn’t be shocked if Golden Apollo or Tommy Taylor were to this. However, at the prices my picks are Jawaal and Muscika.

Jawaal – 7/1 @ William Hill

Muscika – 8/1 @ William Hill & Bet365

Hamilton

6:55 – Ladbrokes Lanark Silver Bell Handicap (Class 3) – 1m4f

A field of 14 runners have been declared for this historic handicap which used to be run at the now defunct Lanark racecourse. It’s a competitive renewal and there are plenty of contenders.

Mark Johnston is 5-18 in this race in the past ten years. He saddles just the one runner in the improving 3-year-old Sapa Inca. The filly has really improved on recent start, winning at Newbury (soft) before going on to finish runner-up at Goodwood and win over today’s distance at the Shergar Cup. The handicapper has put her up 4lb for her Ascot success but in a truly run race she’s capable of defying her new mark.

Archi’s Affaire won this race 12 months ago off today’s mark. Just the two starts this season but the 5-year-old should be spot on fitness wise after his 4^th of 7 at Pontefract 23-days ago. Has a good chance of back to back wins.

Jabbaar was runner-up 12 months ago, beaten ½ length and may well have won with a clearer passage a furlong out. He’s 2lb better off with Archi’s Affaire this time around. He’s consistent enough but tends to place more than he wins and is vulnerable to an improver like Sapa Inca. Still each way claims, as the race should be run to suit his hold up style.

The Glasgowwarrior was third in this last year, just ¾ length behind the first two. His last two wins have come over C&D the most recent of which came in May off 1lb lower. Needs a truly run race to be seen at his best and would prefer quicker ground than he’s likely to get here.

Paths of Glory is a lightly raced 4-year-old who got off the mark when winning at Ffos Las 29-days ago. Best form on RPR’s came on good to soft two starts back and he gets the first time cheekpieces for his handicap debut. Looks on a workable mark off 79 and his trainer Hugo Palmer is 3-4 at Hamilton in the past 5-years.

Beyond The Clouds, a winner over hurdles, has only had three starts on the level but did win a Ripon 25-days ago and makes his handicap debut today. Hard to work if he’s that well handicapped or not.

Dark Lochnagar has improved on each of his last four starts and was only beaten a neck over C&D by Moll Davis three starts back. He’s since gone on to win a soft ground handicap at Chester and run just as well when runner-up back at the same track 26-days ago. The 3-year-old is well suited to an easy surface and given this is just his 10^th career start he might not have reached his class ceiling just yet.

Multellie has an excellent C&D record, never outside the first two on four starts, including this race in 2016 off 7lb higher. The 7-year-old has struggled for form this season but worth noting he won twice last September off higher marks.  Clearly well handicapped if bouncing back to form but tends to run to his best when able to get out in front an dominate which will be hard here.

Verdict: A tricky puzzle that for sure. Sapa Inca is an improving filly who should get the race run to suit. Has a good chance of giving her trainer another win in the race. Paths of Glory is a lightly raced, progressive and looks on a decent mark for his handicap debut. Last year’s winner Archi’s Affaire looks to have been aimed at this race again and has a good chance of back to back wins. Jabbaar last years runner-up is handicapped to go well again and is another who will be suited by a strongly run race. Drier ground brings The Glasgowwarrior right into the mix and the harder the go up front the better he is. Dark Lochnagar needs to find a bit more improvement to win but has place claims.

Sapa Inca – 7/2 – Gen

Jabbaar – 16/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes – each way –(both paying 4 places 1/5 odds)

Cheers

John

What a great York Ebor Festival. It just gets better each year!  I was there on Thursday and Friday. I don’t think I have ever seen the parade ring at York, as full before after a race, as it was on Thursday to see Enable.

York Ebor Festival Highlights

There were plenty of memorable performances and great races. Here are just a few of mine.

Battaash winning the Nunthorpe Stakes and in the process lowering Dayjur’s long standing course record.

The best stayer we have seen in a generation Stradivarius winning the ‘Million Pound Stayers” bonus for the second year running.

Enable winning for the last time on home soil and Frankie’s tears after the race.

The Richard Hannon trained Mums Tipple annihilating a big field in the sales race by a long looking 11 lengths on Thursday.

Irish eyes were smiling after the Ebor Handicap as Mustajeer fourth in last year’s race went three places better to land the ‘first million-pound Ebor’.  The Ebor remains my favourite handicap of the flat season and with the prize money on offer it’s a race that will only continue to grow and grow.

On the betting front there was plenty of big priced placed efforts but apart from Mums Tipple the winners were more elusive than the Scarlet Pimpernel.  Still it was a great meeting run on fast summer ground and one you must be part of.

Weekend Betting Preview

Another big festival is done and dusted and we are almost in a new month, September and according to meteorologists a new season, autumn.

This weekend’s racing can’t compete with last Saturday’s offerings but there is two-day meeting at Sandown with the highlight being the Group 3 Solario Stakes for the 2-year-olds. It’s race that has been won by the likes of Too Darn Hot, Masar and Kingman since 2013.  Normally an informative race if the main contenders stand their ground then this year’s renewal looks up to standard.

Over the Irish Sea the Curragh hosts one of it’s new Friday evening cards. The highlights of the meeting are three Group 3 contests and the Tote Irish Cambridgeshire. Add in a potentially competitive Chester card on Saturday and we have the makings of some decent racing and plenty of betting opportunities.

The weekend’s most valuable race isn’t on ITV racing as it’s the centrepeice of Chelmsford’s Saturday evening card with over £100,000 on offer in prize money for the Chelmsford City Cup a handicap over 7f, which carries heritage handicap status for the first time in it’s short history.

Before all that, here’s this week’s review and there’s plenty to it. I have concentrated on York but there are honourable mentions for two horses that ran at Goodwood & Newmarket last Saturday.

Eyecatchers – w/e August 25^th

York – Ebor Festival Day 1

The Ebor Festival got underway with the Sky Bet And Symphony Group Handicap over 5½f. Dakota Gold, who had won the Great St Wilfrid Handicap a few days earlier, defied his penalty to win again with a bit in handoff his rivals.

There were a few to take out of the race none more so than A Momentofmadness & Makanah.

A Momentofmadness, trained by Charlie Hills, showed up well for a long way to finish 6^th  of 22. This was his best form so far this year and he’s now 4lb lower than when an impressive winner of last years Portland Handicap a race, I have no doubt be aimed at again.

Makanah, trained by Julie Camacho, could also have next months Portland Handicap on his radar after his 4^th placed effort here.  He wasn’t the best away and did well to get a close as he did at the line. This was a career best effort from the 4-year-old, who’s is 8lb higher than his last winning mark.

Justanotherbottle, not for the first time was well backed to win, and not for the first time let his backers down. He didn’t run badly to finish 3 ¼ length off the winner in 9^th and is a well-handicapped horse when on a going day. I see he has an entry at Sandown on Saturday, and it will be interesting to see if he takes up the engagement.

The Sky Bet Handicap over 2m½f attracted 17 runners. Eddystone Rock a winner at the Shergar Cup on his previous start showed once again how well suited he is to marathon trips with a narrow win. The Cesarewitch looks his next target and if he stays the extra two furlongs at Newmarket he must have a good chance of winning again.

In a race that suited the hold-up horses Rare Groove did best of those racing prominently in finishing runner-up.

Infrastructure, trained by Martyn Meade, also finished well from off the pace to take 3rd. The 4-year-old stays 2m and is unexposed over marathon trips. There are races in him over 1m 6f + off his present mark.

Melting Dew, who had run poorly on his first four starts this season put in a seasonal best in finish 4^th on his first try at 2m. He’s 3 -4 in the all-weather but just 1-16 on the grass. Now 2lb lower than his last winning mark there is a race in him but he’s a hard one to catch right.

The Sky Bet Nursery Handicap over 6f concluded day one. It looked a tricky one on paper and just ½ length separated the first three home. Owney Madden battled on well to win by a neck from the Troubador who came into the race looking for a four timer.  Both the winner & runner-up look capable of winning again.

Buhturi, trained by Charlie Hills, put in a eye-catching performance in 6^th, beaten 4 ¾ lengths on his nursery debut. The colt, a full brother to the useful Ibn Malik who won over 7f as a 2-year-old, shaped her like he can be competitive of his handicap over an extra furlong.

York – Ebor Festival Day 2

Just the one race from day 2, the British Stallion Studs EBF Fillies’ Handicap over 7f, a race which was won by Excellent Times at 66/1.

Clon Coulis, trained by David Barron, showed once again that she’s a better filly in a big field in finishing 8^th of 19.  The mare had only been beaten a nose in the Hunt Cup, off 2lb lower in June. Not so good on two subsequent starts. On quick ground she would have found 7f to short but she finished race off well, returned to a mile and chasing a strong pace will be ideal for the 5-year-old.

Lyzbeth, trained by Martyn Meade, finished just one place and a length behind Clon Coulis and can have her effort marked up. Her jockey had trouble removing her blindfold after the stalls opened and effectively lost all chance at the start. The 3-year-old has only had the four career starts, winning one of them but she looks on competitive looking mark and looks worth a go over a mile.

York – Ebor Festival Day 3

Two races for the notebook from Friday’s card, starting with Sky Bet Handicap over 1m4f which got proceedings underway. Tamreer was another big priced winner at 33/1 but she looked a worthy winner.  The improving Caradoc finished well from off the pace in 3^rd in a much hotter race than he had run in before. Gibbs Hill who had pulled up when last seen in the Northumberland Plate in action ran much better here to finish 4^th of 16. The 6-year-old clearly hasn’t been the easiest to keep sound, just the nine career starts, and this was just his second start since September 2017. If, and its big if, he can build on this promise there are handicaps to be won with the gelding.

Jazeel, trained by Jedd O’Keeffe, ran a strange race on his first go at 1m 4f. He was one of the first to be pushed a long but stayed on into 9^th. Jockey Jamie Spencer didn’t subject the 4-year-old to hard race inside the final furlong. The winner of last year’s Silver Cambridgeshire for his previous trainer. He’s been aimed at this years Cambridgeshire a race that should suit as he’s at his best in a strongly run race. Probably best to forgive this run and he remains high on my shortlist for the Cambridgeshire.

Fanaar, trained by William Haggas, who had finished 3^rd of 28 in the valuable Britannia Handicap at Royal Ascot, bounced back to form when 3^rd of 16, behind Pogo, in the 3-year-old mile handicap. The race wasn’t run to suit the hold-up horses, so he did well to get as close as he did at the finish. The geldings top three performances on Racing Post Ratings have now come in field sizes 14+.

Boston George, trained by Keith Dalgleish, was another who came from off the pace to dead heat for 6^th at the line. The colt has yet to add to his Newcastle juvenile win so far this season but on the evidence of this run and his 3^rd placed effort at Ayr on his previous start. He shouldn’t be waiting to long for another win especially when dropped back in class.

I’m not having much luck with my juvenile eyecatchers but here’s one anyway from the Convivial Maiden Stakes.

Pot Of Paint, trained by Tom Dascombe, belied his 66/1 odds to finish 4^th of 14, behind Molatham on his racecourse debut. The three horses that finished ahead of him, all had the benefit of a previous run. He ran green from the start but once the penny dropped, he finished his race off well. His half brother won over a mile so this 7f would be a minimum for the colt who has the scope to make a good 3-year-old but can probably win a maiden before the season is out.

York – Ebor Festival Day 4

The Melrose Handicap over 1m 6f is now effectively the 3-year-old’s Ebor and it’s also a ‘win and you’re in’ race for next years Ebor Handicap.

This year’s winner was the William Haggas trained Hamish who improved for the step up to 1m 6f and will surely be aimed at next years big race. The runner-up First In Line, trained by John Gosden, is another colt going the right way and could be a Group horse in the making. Third home was the Sir Mark Prescott trained Land Of Oz. A winner over 2m he was beaten by two horses with more speed and needs further to be seen at his best. One can easily see him being a future Cesarewitch contender.

The final two handicaps on the final day looked interesting. The John Gosden trained, Forest Of Dean built on his recent Goodwood success with a decisive win in the 1m 2 ½ f handicap. The colt remains on the upgrade and looks a Cambridgeshire horse. Fourth home Rise Hall, trained by Martyn Meade, will have entered plenty of notebooks after this run. He had looked on a competitive mark despite going up 3lb for a recent Newmarket win. The 4-year-old came from off the pace and making his effort on the far side which wasn’t the most favoured part of the track. His progress may not have ended and he’s one to keep on the right side of going forward.

The 5f Class 2 apprentice race than concluded the meeting was interesting with the future in mind. The winner, Que Amoro defied a 10lb rise in the weights for a previous C&D success. The 3-year-old clearly goes well at York and could turn out be a pattern race filly.

Previous eyecatcher Moss Gill was a warm order to follow up his recent Newmarket second placed effort but didn’t have the speed of the winner. A return to 6f should see him back in the winner enclosure.

Roulston Scar, trained by Kevin Ryan looks the one to take out of the race. The 3-year-old was just a short head back in third. He was also dropping down from 6f and like the runner-up he couldn’t match the winners early speed on quick ground. A winner on soft ground at Pontefract on his previous run. His best performances came off a 60+ day’s break so he goes well fresh, but you would expect his trainer to be now looking at race at Ayr’s Western Meeting for the gelding.

Pass the Vino, who had just finished head of Moss Gill at Newmarket continues to run well. He did best of those drawn high and won’t mind a return to 6f either.

Other Eyecatchers

Saturday August 24th

Goodwood

Cliffs of Capri, trained by Jamie Osborne, who had run well at Meydan during the winter, posted another solid effort at Goodwood to finish 4^th to Salute the Soldier in the 7f handicap. The 5-year-old was very much in contention on the inside furlong out but didn’t get a run when he needed it. He’s just 1lb higher than for his last win at Ascot over 7f last October, a track he goes well at. A return to Ascot’s straight course seems likely, a track his trainer has a good record at with older handicappers.

Newmarket

Themaxwecan, trained by Mark Johnston, finished runner-up to Saroog in the 1m 6f Class 2 handicap. The 3-year-old came into the race on the back of a win over 2m at Ascot. Up 4lb from Ascot he showed again what a good battling attitude he has. A typical tough Mark Johnston. He’s only had the nine start and remains open to plenty more progress over 2m +. Mark Johnston has won the Cesarewitch four times during his career and Themaswecan looks an ideal horse for that historic staying handicap, either this year or next.

I wouldn’t expect you to put all the above in your trackers, of course you can, but there should be plenty of winners among them.

Cheers

John

Hi all,

It’s a frustrating spell that’s for sure, with another two placed efforts on Sunday.  Just the one selection today from Ripon.

Ripon

4:30 – Alfred Richardson a winner over C&D two starts ago off 4lb lower. He’s since run well at Thirsk on goon going that would have been plenty soft enough. The quicker the ground the better for the 5-year-old who was progressive on Newcastle’s tapeta surface at the end of last year. This is tougher race but on the evidence of his last runs the 5-year-old remains an improving horse. Osin Murphy is a good jockey booking and suggests a big run is expected.

Alfred Richardson – 13/2 @ William Hill

My next scheduled update will be on Thursday but there could be the odd selection between now and then.

Cheers

John

Hi all,

It’s been a tough few days on the betting front. Good efforts by Barsanti, Rise Hall and Moss Gill but we just didn’t get the run of the green when we needed it.

This week will be much quieter betting wise, but I have a few eyecatchers from York that I will post in my weekly notebook on Thursday.

For now, I have a couple of selections from a decent looking Goodwood card.

Goodwood

3:00 – Great Example faces a few unexposed rivals in the likes of Country, Harrovian and Joyful Mission but looks capable of more improvement himself. The 3-year-old made it 2 wins from 3 runs this season when winning at Nottingham 37-days ago. Up 6lb but remains on a competitive mark.

Great Example – 4/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

5:20 – Zac Brown holds his form well and won on the all-weather at Chelmsford two starts back. The 8-year-old is a better performer on the all-weather but has won over C&D in the past and won on quick ground at Salisbury back in June. Has top-weight of 10-2 to defy but does drop into Class 5 company here. Looks sure to there or thereabouts at the finish.

Zac Brown – 4/1 @ William Hill

Cheers

John

Hi all,

I have enjoyed a tremendous days racing in the warm sunshine. Just a shame my punting efforts were truly dreadful. We have just one day to turn things around.

There’s plenty of racing today around the country but I have concentrated solely on York.

York Ebor Festival – Day 4

2:25 – Land Of Oz has been placed really well by Sir Mark Prescott to win four handicaps, two f them over 1m 6f but has won over further. Seems ground versatile, has won on soft and good to firm. No issues with stamina for the gelding who we haven’t probably seen the best of yet.

Just Hubert comes into the race looking for the hat trick after handicap wins at Ripon & Sandown. Prior to that he had finished third, albeit well beaten, to easy Voltigeur winner Logician at Newbury. Plenty of scope for further progress and shouldn’t be dismissed off 5lb higher. Trainer William Muir hopes he could be a Melbourne Cup horse in 2020 which shows how well regarded he is.

Verdict: The Melrose is always a competitive handicap. Land Of Oz steps up in class but probably hasn’t reached his class ceiling just yet. Just Hubert is another improver who has a better chance than the bookies odds suggest.

Land Of Oz – 10/1 @ Paddy Power

Just Hubert – 22/1 @ Paddy Power – each way (paying 4 places 1/5 odds)

3:00 – Laurens multiple Group 1 winner is the class horse of the race but does drop back to 7f for the first time since she was 2-year-old and as Group 1 winner has to give weight to her rivals.

Sir Dancealot won the Lennox Stakes at Goodwood two starts back before disappointing at Newbury last week but wouldn’t have been suited by the soft ground. A 7f specialist he will like the return to quick ground.

Speak In Colours, showed he stays 7f when 4th to Sir Dancealot in the Lennox Stakes. He was beaten just 2 ¼ lengths at the finish and would have finished closer with a clearer run. He gets 3lb from the winner and is unexposed over the distance.

Verdict: Sir Dancealot should do much better on faster ground than he faced last Saturday in the Hungerford Stakes. However, preference is for Speak In Colours who remains unexposed over 7f and doesn’t have much to find with Sir Dancealot on their Goodwood running.

Speak In Colours – 7/1 @ Bet365

3:40 – Sky Bet Ebor Handicap (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) – 1m 6f

The race of the meeting and with over million pound in prize money and £600,000 on offer to the winner it’s attracting a high-class horse. The handicap is very condensed with just 8lb separating the 22 runners and plenty of contenders, as you would expect.

The claims of market leaders Withhold and the admirable King’s Advice are clear to everyone. Ben Vrackie was an eyecatcher when finishing strongly to take second on the 1m 4f Duke Of Edinburgh Stakes. He then disappointed when well behind Kings Advice at Newmarket last time when sent off just 3/1. Can get behind in his races but a reproduction of his Ascot performance, off 4lb higher would see him go close. Given the excellent record of 3lb & 5lb claimers in the race Red Galileo has to be respected with Cieren Fallon taking off 5lb. He might be an 8-year-old but he showed he was no back number when beating 13 rivals over the distance at Newmarket back in June. Ran better than his final position of 8th suggests in the Northumberland Plate and meets King’s Advice on 11lb better terms here. He’s quirky but talented and if in the mood can go well.

Red Verdon & Raheen House finished 1st & 3rd in a a Group 3 over C&D last month. Both have a touch of class and there shouldn’t be much between the pair again. Both should be suited by the anticipated strong pace. Raheen House has been aimed at this race all season but maybe lacks a bit of resolution at the finish compared to Red Verdon whose also double the price in the ante post betting.

Barsanti has dropped down to a tempting mark.  The 7-year-old’s last win came in a Listed race at Ascot in May 2018, not so good since but hasn’t been disgraced in small fields Group/Listed company. He goes well on quick ground, all three of his turf wins coming on good to firm and goes well in a big field, having had 3 wins from 5 runs 5 placed with form figures 11212. His record at York is a very encouraging 2 wins from 4 runs 4 placed with form figures 1211. He ticks the boxes marked going, course and experience of a big field handicaps.

Raymond Tusk won a Group 2 in Italy and the end of last season and wasn’t disgraced when 2nd to Dee Ex Bee in the 2m Sagaro Stakes back in May.  The 4-year-old wasn’t disgraced when trying to give 2lb to Crystal Ocean at Newbury on his next start. Didn’t stay in the Gold Cup but was still in contention two out. First race since Ascot but has each way claims, on ground that will suit. Of slight concern is the recent record of 4-year-old’s in the race just 1 winner from 71 runners 12 placed.

Verdict: It’s a cracker of a race that’s for sure. The poor record of 4-year-old’s in the race is a slight negative for the chances of Raymond Tusk.  My two against the field at big prices are Red Verdon and Barsanti.

Red Verdon – 28/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes – each way (both paying 5 places 1/5 odds)

Barsanti – 25/1 @ Sky Bet – each way (paying 8 places 1/5 odds)

4:45 – Forest Of Dean has a favourites but at 3/1 I can let him win. Society Red won over C&D last summer and all four of his career wins have come on good to firm ground. His career best RPR came over C&D in May off 2lb higher. Not the most consistent of horses as his subsequent performances have shown but he can’t confidently be ruled out on his return to York. Rise Hall represents the inform Marty Meade stable. The 4-year-old has improved with each of his four starts this season according to Racing Post Ratings and put in career best when winning at Newmarket 28-days ago. The handicapper has raised him just 3lb for his last win which could be lenient.

Verdict:  Society Red has each way claims on a track that he goes well at. Rise Hall continues to improve and looks set to go close.

Rise Hall – 9/1 @ Bet365 & William Hill

Society Red – 33/1 @ Paddy Power (paying 5 places 1/5 odds)

5:20 – Another tough handicap puzzle to solve with the added complication that it’s a race for apprentice riders.

Recon Mission won here over 6f back in June and has a good form chance but probably won’t be suited by the drying ground.

Moss Gill heads the ante post market after his short head to defeat to Pass The Vino in a big field handicap at Newmarket last month. The drop back to 5f shouldn’t be a problem for 3-year-old was runner-up over C&D in May.

Count D’orsay made a winning debut for Tim Easterby at Ripon 18-days ago. Up 7lb for that win he needs to improve again but that’s highly possible given his progressive profile. The gelding is 2lb out of the handicap but can’t be discounted from a stable that won the race in 2018 & 2016.

Verdict: Moss Gill isn’t much of a price, but this race looks ideal for him. Given Tim Easterby’s record in the race I wouldn’t put anyone off the progressive Count D’orsay.

Moss Gill – 5/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

Cheers

John

Hi all,

Another day and another each way bet landed. Sadly, it hasn’t done much for the betting bank, but we still have two days to make a profit.  However, I suspect today will be a decisive day on how the four days go.

York Ebor Festival – Day 3

1:55 – Jazeel is being aimed at the Cambridgeshire but shaped like he would worth a go at 1m 4f after a career best effort at Goodwood 24-days ago. He’s had a good season winning at Sandown winning at Sandown three starts back. His one slightly below par run came here in the John Smith’s Cup. Three wins on good to firm and shouldn’t be far away for inform Jedd O’Keeffe. 

Another horse stepping up to 1m 4f is Caradoc. The 4-year-old has returned from a near 11-month absence in great form winning two of his four starts and is 2 wins from 3 runs stepping up to 1m 2f. He was a very impressive winner at Windsor 11-days ago and carries just a 5lb penalty for that success. He finished his race of strongly at Windsor and the son of Camelot must have a good chance of staying 1m 4f.

Indianapolis is at his best when coming off a strong pace as he showed when winning at the Shergar Cup. 13-days ago. He’s been raised 3lb for that win but the 4-year-ol remains capable of more progress. Mandarin was ½ length back in third and gets 2lb from the winner. There shouldn’t be much between the pair again, but I think Indianapolis has the potential for more progress.

Cardoc – 15/2 @ Paddy Poer or 7/1 @Bet365 & William Hill

Indianapolis – 11/1 @ Ladbrokes – each way (paying 5 places 1/5 odda)

3:00 – Any Kevin Ryan runner in the Gimcrack needs respecting, given he’s won the race in the three times in the past ten-years. He saddles three this year and all of them have chances. Spartan Fighter has won his last two starts for Declan Carroll, latterly here over 5 ½ 42-days ago. Trainer thinks the horse is the best 2-year-old he’s trained and has been aimed at this race since last win. Karl Burke has his juveniles in fine form and one of his runners Dubai Station must enter calculations. Third in the Group 2 Norfolk Stakes at Royal Ascot two starts back he’s subsequently finished 3^rd to Sunday’s impressive Prix Morny winner Earthlight. That’s good form and he’s got place claims in the hands of Frankie Dettori.

Spartan Fighter – 8/1 @ Paddy Power or 15/2 @ William Hill & Bet365

Dubai Station – 12/1 @ Ladbrokes – each way (paying 4 places 1/5 odds )

3:35 – I think it might be worth taking on Ten Sovereigns, despite his impressive win in the July Cup. Battaash is arguably the fastest horse in the race over 5f but he’s been beaten in this race in the past two years after coming here after a win at Goodwood.  Not sure if it’s the track he doesn’t like or the big crowd or this race comes to quick after Goodwood.  Now he could make it third time lucky today but there are reasons to be wary about that happening. The solid option is Mabs Cross who was beaten a nose in the race last years before going onto win the Group 1 Prix de l’Abbaye at Longchamp on Arc Day, with Battaash was back in 4^th. The mare had been trained for this, goes well fresh and the harder they go up front the better she is. Solid each way contender at around 5/1.

Mabs Cross – 5/1 @ Bet365 & William Hill

4:15 – The most valuable maiden of the British Flat season. The Roger Varian trained Molatham made a premising debut, when finishing runner-up, at Ascot 28-days ago. He was weak in the market that day so can be expected come on for that run. The winner Mums Tipple but in an extraordinary performance to win the big sales race here yesterday. Not surprisingly the bookies are running scared and have the colt a very short priced favourite here. There was plenty of support for the Andrew Balding trained Fox Duty Free on his Newbury debut. He probably lost his race at the start after being hampered when leaving the stalls. In the circumstances he did well to get within ½ length of the winner. Today’s extra furlong will suit the son of Kingman who will races.

Fox Duty Free – 9/2 @ William Hill

4:50 – A 17 runner handicap for 3-year-old’s is a tricky concluding race and I like the claims of three runners.

Top Vision was available at 25/1 with William Hill on Thursday afternoon which was too good to miss and not surprisingly he’s now less than half that price. The top weight won here as a juvenile before going to win the Group 2 Vintage Stakes at Goodwood on his next start.  Not so good on subsequent starts but shaped like he was coming back to form when a staying on 4th of 14 at Newmarket two starts back. Was well fancied, sent off just 8/1, for the Golden Mile Handicap back at Goodwood but in truth had no chance from his draw in 19. Irv steps up in class after two C&D wins and he’s been put up 7lb for the last of those wins 28-day ago. This demands more but he could be capable of defying it and given his liking for the track he needs respecting. Fastman has run well here in the past and he looks worth ago at mile after his strong finishing second at Newmarket 20-days ago. He can go well for David O’Meara but is vulnerable to any progressive types in the field.

Dark Vision – 9/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

Irv – 9/1 @ Coral

Fastman – 11/1 @ Bet365

Cheers

John

Hi all,

Apart from Elarqam finishing third in the Juddmonte International it was a poor start to the Ebor Festival. However, it’s marathon not a sprint so we have plenty of time to make a profit.

I’m at York for the next two-days and today is my first chance to see Enable in the flesh.

Waking up to grey sky’s and there look like there has been a shower or too overnight. Fingers crossed the sun will come out.

At least the showers will have freshened up the ground but most of today’s selections wouldn’t want any more rain to fall.

York Ebor Festival – Day 2

1:55 – Liberty Beach sets the standard and will be a tough nut to crack. Under The Stars is unbeaten on both her starts and last time out caused a bit of a surprise when winning an Ascot Group 3 (25/1) over today’s distance. She’s capable of more progress and will be there or thereabouts.

Under The Stars – 9/2 @ Paddy Power or 4/1 @ Bet365 & William Hill

3:00 – The first of the day’s three handicaps with a field of 20 declared to go to post for this Class 2 mile handicap. 

Kynren can be relied on to run well in these big field 7f/1m handicaps without winning. He pays for his consistency and is 4lb higher than when finishing runner-up in this 12 months ago. The 5-year-old deserves to win a nice pot but looks plenty short enough in the betting.

Seniority was a shade unlucky in the run when 4th of 2o in the Golden Mile Handicap at Goodwood on his last start. He’s 3lb higher than his last winning mark but won’t be far away here.

One place behind Seniority in the Goodwood race was Baltic Baron. The 4-year-old also failed to get a clear passage when making his effort on the inside. He’s got the ability to win a race like this off his present mark but does need all the cards to fall right to do so. Trainer David O’Meara won this race in 2016 & 2013 and both his winners met all the above trends as does Baltic Baron.

Vale Of Kent is a typical Mark Johnston horse tough and stand his racing well. The 4-year-old won the Bunbury Cup over 7f last month, off 5lb lower. He was then down the field in the International Stakes at Ascot, probably not suited by the rain softened ground, but bounced back to form to finish runner-up in the Golden Mile Handicap at Goodwood. Given he was drawn out in 17 that day he did well to finish as close as he did. Up 3lb does make life tougher and he maybe better over 7f. He should remain competitive.

Arbalet was another not suited to the soft ground in the International Stakes, a race he had finished runner-up in the previous season on good to firm. The Hugo Palmer trained 4-year-old is 0 wins from 3 runs when racing beyond 7f although on pedigree he should stay the distance. His career best on Racing Post Ratings came here 12 months ago when a 2 ½ length third to Expert Eye in the Group 3 City Of York Stakes over 7f. On a winnable handicap mark for a trainer who won this race in 2014 and had the runner-up in 2017.

Petrus won his first two starts this season at Doncaster & Bath before finishing 4^th of 14 at Newbury. Doing best of those held up that day. No show in the Hunt Cup but the soft ground wouldn’t have suited him so he can be forgiven that poor run.  Showed that running was all wrong back on faster ground when running on to grab third behind Mojito at Sandown 47-days ago. Just 2lb higher than for his last win he can go well here and according to trainer Brian Meehan he missed Goodwood for this race.

Petrus – 14/1 @ William Hill & Paddy Power – each way (both paying 5 places)

Arbalet – 22/1 @ Coral & Paddy Power – each way (both paying 5 places)

4:15 – Not the strongest renewal of the Galtres Stakes. The market is headed by the Dermot Weld trained Search For A Song who finished 4^th in the Irish Oaks last month. This is just her 4^th career start and she remains’ open to further progress. At the prices my preference is for Vivionn. The daughter of Dubawi looked a shade unlucky not to win a Goodwood handicap 22-days ago. She steps up to 1m 4f for the first time which looks worth a go. The 3-year-old was doing her best work at the finish last time and her full brother Ispolini won over 1m 6f at Meydan over the winter. There are grounds for optimism that she could find improvement for the new distance.

Vivionn – 17/2 @ William Hill & Coral – each way

4:50 – A 20-runner fillies handicap to end the day. It’s a tricky race where there are plenty of contenders the two, I like most are Salayel & Chaleur.

The Roger Varian trained Salayel is an interesting runner. The 3-year-old had been running on the dirt at Jebel Ali & Meydan over the winter. Did well on her first start for Roger Varian ,when 2nd off 11 to California Love at Newmarket’s July Festival. He was sent off the 7/2 favourite that day and was only beaten a head at the finish. The handicapper has put her up 6lb for that effort, but she’s remains on a competitive mark.

Chaleur, trained by Ralph Beckett, built on the promise of her Newmarket return when an eyecatching 3rd of 11 at Goodwood over a mile 23-days ago. Slight negative that she’s dropping back in trip today but if they go a decent pace, she should be fine. At least the quick ground will suit her and a win doesn’t seem too far off.

Salayel – 7/2 – Gen

Chaleur – 10/1 @ Bet365

Cheers

John

York Ebor Festival – Day 1

The 4-day Ebor festival gets underway on Wednesday with a six-race card. Plenty of great racing to look forward to although I won’t be going in to heavy on the betting front today.

1:55 – A Class 2 handicap run over 5 ½ f. Stone Of Destiny & Final Venture were first & second in the 5f sprint handicap at the Shergar Cup. Only a nose separated the pair at the line and the runner-up gets a 1lb from the winner for that narrow defeat. Final Venture has often run well here over 5f  and shouldn’t be far away at the finish again. However, Stone Of Destiny was finishing his race off well and might be better suited by the extra ½ f. The 5-year-old who is also qualifier from the Andrew Balding micro angle highlight in the festival guide, looks capable of another bold show.  Dakota Gold won the Great St Wilfrid Handicap at Ripon on Saturday. He has a 5lb penalty to carry for that success bit was well in command at the finish that he could defy it Drops back ½ f here and the ground will be quicker than it was Ripon. A Momentofmadness won last years Portland Handicap at Doncaster over today’s distance. He’s now 4lb lower but hasn’t been in form so far this season. Well handicapped when he does return to form. Another well handicapped runner is Justanotherbottle. He was beaten just a short head in last years Goodwood Stewards Cup, off 5lb higher. Not up to that level of form on his first two starts this season but hinted at a return to his best when 5^th in this seasons Stewards Cup on his last start. The slight drop in trip should suit the prominent runner. Often well backed he’s handicapped to win a sprint handicap like this

Verdict: Stone Of Destiny is capable of defying a small rise in the weights for his recent Ascot win. A Momentofmadness is now a well handicapped horse and will bounce back to form sometime. Another well handicapped horse is Justanotherbottle.

Stone Of Destiny – 12/1 @ Paddy Power – each way (paying 6 places 1/5 odds)

Justanotherbottle – 9/1 @ Bet365

3:35 – The Group 1 Juddmonte International is the highlight of day one of the Ebor Festival. Crystal Ocean has the best form and will take all the beating if he reproduces his best form. Japan, King of Comedy & Circus Maximus represent the classic generation. For those looking for a bigger priced alternative to the favourite. Look no further than the Mark Johnston trained Elarqam. Unbeaten on two starts as a juvenile. He was expected to make up into a high class 3-year-old but after finishing 4^th in the 2,000 Guineas is form tailed off.  Has improved physically from three to four, winning three of his four starts including a career best when winning a Group 2 over C&D 25-days ago. Has 7lb to find with Crystal Ocean but has each-way claims.

Verdict: If Crystal Ocean has recovered from a hard race in the King George VI, he will win this. Elarqam may yet fulfil his lofty price tag and breeding and show he’s a genuine Group 1 horse. Needs one or two to underperform but has place claims.

Elarqam – 11/1 @ Paddy Power & Ladbrokes – each way

4:15 – Frankie Dettori is an eye-catching jockey booking for Dubawi Fifty. The 6-year-old ran a blinder to finish runner-up in the Northumberland Plate two starts back. Couldn’t get into a prominent position at Goodwood and never got into the race. He’s better that that and York will his running style. It won’t be easy off top weight of 9-10 but he’s more than capable of winning a race like this. Carnwennan & Rare Groove were first & second in the Northumberland Plate consolation race two starts back. The first named had previously won over C&D. Both horses then ran in the Marsh Cup at Newbury. Carnwennan was sent off the 5/1 joint favourite that day but ran no sort of race and finished 15th of 16. The 4-year-old is better than that so if you forgive that effort, he remains a progressive stayer. Rare Groove was 5th and seemed to run his race at Newbury. He’s capable of going well again although he has disappointed on both starts at York. Eddystone Rock seemed to improve for the step up 2m when winning at the Shergar Cup. The 7-year-old is 4lb higher here but still looks on a winnable mark if building on his Ascot run.

Verdict: If the going is good or quicker, I think C&D winner Carnwennan can resume his progress and go close here. Top-weight Dubawi Fifty is better than he was able to show at Goodwood and deserves to win a race like this.

Carnwennan – 15/2 @ Paddy Power & William Hill

4:50 – A tough looking nursery handicap with a maximum field of 22 set to go to post. Pop Dancer comes into the race on a hat trick. He looks on competitive mark for his handicap debut. Trainer Richard Fahey has won this race three times in the past ten years and Pop Dancer looks to have a similar profile to his previous winners. Mark Johnston saddles four and the best of them could be the tough and consistent Rose Of Kildare who battled on well to dead heat for first at Newmarket 18-days ago.

Pop Dancer – 8/1 – Ladbrokes & Coral

Cheers

John