Category: Victor Value

Hi all,

Doncaster St Leger Festival – Day 3

The management of Doncaster racecourse must disappointed with field sizes for their Class 2 handicaps. There are some really noncompetitive races from a betting perspective today but I have still managed to find three selections.

2:10 – Angel’s Hideaway would win this with a reproduction of her 1,000 Guineas 4^th and Jersey Stakes third. However, she’s a bit to hit or miss for me and she hasn’t run well on either start since Royal Ascot, albeit they were at Goodwood. This track will suit her better.

The favourite is the Roger Varian filly Farzeen. She’s won her last two starts. The latter of those wins came in a Kempton novice last month. At Kempton she looked a smart filly in the making and you can see why connections are giving it a go in a Group 3 today. Connections have some reservations about the quick ground and she by no means a certain runner.

A stiff 7f looks ideal for Di Fede. She’s consistent and arguably put in a career best when a 2 length 4 of 12 to Suedois in a Group 3 at Goodwood 19-days ago. I had the 4-year-old down as a filly at her best on soft ground, but her trainer Ralph Beckett doesn’t seem perturbed as he’s told the Racing Post “The ground is no concern, she doesn’t worry about anything.”. Three-year-old’s have won eight out of the last ten running’s of the race but that age group has had 67% of the total runners.

Di Fede – 6/1 @ Bet365

2:40 – The Mallard Handicap has had an average field size of 11 in the past ten years. This year’s renewal has attracted just six runners. Saroog comes into the race on hat trick after wins at Ascot and Newmarket. He’s capable of more improvement but 11/8 doesn’t appeal.

Mark Johnston has trained the winner of this race twice since 2012 and he saddles my idea of the winner in Charles Kingsley.  A three-time winner this season, two of them coming in races with field sizes 7 or less.  The 3-year-old has won on quick ground, stays the trip and is just 2lb above his last winning mark.

Charles Kingsley – 5/1 @ Paddy Power & William Hill

5:30 – Effective over 6f/7f this intermediate distance could well suit Reputation who was beaten just ½ length into second in a better race than this at Newmarket back in July and now race off 4lb lower.  Not so good on three subsequent starts but there have been excuses with the all-weather and soft ground not being to his liking. Trainer Ruth Carr is 0 winners from 21 runners in the past 14-days which is a big concern but at around 12/1 and with 8 runners I can chance the stable form each way.

Reputation – 14/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes – each way

Cheers

John

Hi all,

How frustrating for Shantou Village who was bang there but unseated his rider after a mistake at the final fence. But for that he would have placed at the very least and could well have gone onto win. Ah, the joys of jump racing.

A few races at Doncaster with short priced horses that don’t appeal from a betting perspective. There’s a competitive handicap hurdle at Listowel which I have a selection. However, let’s begin at St Leger Festival

Doncaster

2:10 – Stylistique, trained by Roger Varian, has improved with each of her three starts. Last time out she was beaten less than 2 lengths into 4th in a Group 3 at Goodwood last month. The runner-up at Goodwood has since gone onto win a Group 3 so the form looks solid enough. Every chance there will be more to come from the top weight. Graceful Magic dead heated with Rose of Kildare three starts back. Didn’t enjoy the ground back at that track on her next start. Returned to form when second on quick ground at Goodwood 9-days ago. A bit unlucky in the run that day.  Can race off her old mark here and needs respecting.

Stylistique – 13/2 @ Bet365

3:15 – Glasvegas, hasn’t been seen since running on into third in the Windsor Castle Stakes at Royal Ascot. Shaped like he would appreciate 6f that day. Capable of a big run although not sure why we haven’t seen him for 85-days. Kevin Ryan has twice won this race since 2013. He saddles Repartee who also put in a career best when third to Threat in the Group 2 Gimcrack Stakes. The son of Invincible Spirit has less miles on the clock than the O’Brien. The slight step up in distance will suit, as will the likely quick ground and colt look’s capable of giving his trainer another win in the race.

Repartee – 8/1 @ Bet365

3:45 – The May Hill Stakes for the juvenile fillies is arguably the most interesting race of the day.

West End Girl won the Group 3 Sweet Solera Stakes at Newmarket. Making all over 7f, the daughter of Golden Horn is going the right way and can improve further for the step up to a mile. She’s got the best form on offer.

Cloak Of Spirits, trained by Richard Hannon, made an impressive racecourse debut when winning at Ascot 48-days ago. A distance further to travel today but she’s open to any amount of improvement. Heads the ante-post betting but on form it really should be West End Girl on form. Given Godolphin’s record in the race 4 winners from 8 runners +7.5 A/E 1.41 6 placed 75%

Alpen Rose needs respecting. The daughter of Sea The Stars built on the promise of her racecourse debut when making all to win a C&D maiden 26-days ago. Another filly open to plenty of progress.

Aidan O’Brien saddled last year’s winner Fleeting and he saddles Passion. The daughter of Galileo won a Cork maiden 11-days ago and is another filly with plenty improvement in her. A full sister to Irish Derby/St Leger winner Capri, she’s bred to be a better 3-year-old but showed a decent change of gear when winning her maiden. It will be interesting to see how she fares in the pre-race betting.

Passion – 7/1 @ Paddy Power

4:20 – Seventeen fillies are set to go to post for sprint handicap for Lady Rider’s. Savalas, trained by Kevin Ryan, needs respecting, with Josephine Gordon booked for the ride. The 4-year-old isn’t the most consistent horses, but he gets the first-time visor today and if the headgear works then he’s a well-handicapped horse on the best of his 3-year-old form.

Drummond Warrior, trained by Pam Sly, is the least exposed runner in the field. The 3-year-old has only had the three career starts. A winner of his first two starts both at Windsor, he was beaten just a neck on his handicap debut at Newmarket 20-days ago. Up just 2lb for that effort he looks to be on a competitive mark and Hollie Doyle is one of the more experienced riders in the field.

Normandy Barriere, a previous winner here over 6 ½ f was also runner-up, beaten a short head over that distance 12 months ago, now 14lb lower. Not in the same form this season and long losing run dates to May 2017.  However, the 7-year-old is to well handicapped to ignore and two of his best three RPR’s have come at this venue.

Savalas – 14/1 @ William Hill & Bet365 – each way (both paying 4 places ¼ odds)

Normandy Barriere – 9/1 @ William Hill & Bet365

Listowel

4:50 – Ballyoisin who’s developed into a high-class handicap chaser. Returns to hurdling off a 26lb lower mark. Won this race 12 months ago off 11lb lower. Clearly wins this if he replicates his chase improvement. Still that’s factored into his price and around 2/1 he doesn’t appeal as a bet.

Tony Martin saddles two interesting contenders in Mr Everest, who won a Galway maiden on his 4^th start over hurdles. Useful on the flat the 6-year-old, won here on the level 12 months ago before finishing 3^rd in the Irish Cesarewitch. Makes his handicap hurdle debut off a workable mark.

Golden Spear is more exposed over hurdles than his stablemate. The 8-year-old wasn’t beaten fat into 8^th in the Galway Hurdle and has since run respectably on the flat at Killerney when 3^rd of11 to Davids Charm. Won a valuable handicap hurdle at Down Royal last November, off 9lb lower, and that level of form puts him in the mix here.

Davids Charm was 4^th in the Galway Hurdle and won’t be far away off 1lb higher. Hearts Are Trumps like the favourite owned by J P McManus was 6^th in the Galway Hurdle. That was his first run for 100-days and he could.

Gordon Elliott saddles Chosen Mate one of three for the trainer. Chosen Mate was a winner of a Grade 2 novice hurdle at Naas back in February. Sent off just 6/1 for a Grade 1 novice hurdle at Aintree and wasn’t disgraced when 5^th of 9. Still in contention coming to two out but didn’t seem to stay 2m 4f. Sent off 9/1 for the Galway Hurdle he was badly hampered at the 5^th and was soon pulled up. Remains capable of better although this will be the softest ground he’s raced on so far under rules.

Golden Spear – 10/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes – each way – (both paying 4 places 1/5 odds

Chosen Mate – 8/1 – Gen

Cheers

John

Hi all,

It’s the start of the St Leger Festival at Doncaster. Although looking at the seven-race card it’s hardly worthy of the name in terms of class, with the most valuable race being the Listed Scarbrough Stakes. Thankfully we have the Kerry National at the Listowel Festival which is the big race of the day either side of the Irish Sea.

Doncaster

2:25 – Oweney Madden made it 2 wins from his last 3 starts when winning a Class 2 nursery at York 21-days ago. He only got up close home over 6f and can improve for the step up in distance. Mind you he must, as the handicapper has raised the colt 9lb for his York success. The Martyn Meade stable has been hit by a virus which is a slight concern but hopefully this one is clear of it.

Oweney Madden – 9/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

Top weight Hariboux is now 3 wins from 4 starts. The gelding took advantage of a lenient handicap mark to come from behind to win at Newmarket 18-days ago. The handicapper has raised him 10lb for his last win, but he might not have stopped progressing just yet.

4:45 – Another small field for this 1m 2f Conditions race with just six going to post. Loxley won a Group 2 at Deauville last August before finishing a well beaten 10th in the St Leger (6/1). Hasn’t been seen since finishing 5th of 10 in a Group 1 at Meydan back in March. Has been gelded since that run and goes well fresh, having won first time up in the last two seasons. Best form has come with some juice in the ground and may want further than 1m 2f but he’s 4lb clear on official ratings and is the class horse of the race.

Willie John won a C&D novice (good to firm) here 13 months ago and put in a career best when runner-up to Elarqam, beaten 2 ½ lengths back in May. Was well behind that horse at Royal Ascot but wouldn’t have liked the rain softened ground there. First start since Ascot but he should be fit enough and will appreciate the return to quicker ground. Trainer Roger Varian is 6 winners from 17 runners 35% +45.88 A/E 1.85 10 placed 59% in Class 1 & Class 2 non-handicaps at the St Leger Festival in the past 5 -years and won this race in 2016 & 2017.

Willie John – 7/2 @ Paddy Power

5:20 – The most competitive race of the day with 20 runners declared to go to post for this 5f handicap.

Paul Midgley won the race in 2011 and he saddles Line Of Reason. The 9-year-old is a bit an in and out these days but is handicapped to win this if at his best. He’s now 6lb lower than when a length 3rd of 19 at York back in June. Bounced backed to form when 3rd of 9, beaten ½ length, behind Harry Hurricane at Windsor 9-days ago. Final Venture has the back class to win this and shaped like he was coming back to form last time.

Not for the first time this season Abel Handy disappointed 11-days ago. James Doyle whose form figures on the 4-year-old are 164 is back in the saddle which is a positive. The Declan Carroll trained runner races of his last winning mark and he was 6th here in last season’s Portland Handicap as a 3-year-old. Big chance at the weights if you forgive his lifeless run last time.

Line Of Reason – 7/1 @ William Hill 

Listowel

4:15 – Guinness Kerry National Handicap Chase (Grade A) – 3m

I see the Kerry National as the first big handicap chase of the winter jumps season.  A maximum field of runners are set run with €118,000 on offer to the winner.

Dell’ Arca, trained David Pipe was staying on strongly at the end of last year’s race to finish 4^th, beaten 4 3/4, is 6lb lower now and is nicely handicapped if he can reproduce last year’s run. Not really run to that level since and at ten is vulnerable to any improvers in the field.

Shantou Village was 5^th in this 12 months ago. He ran well for a long way and was just outstayed by those who finished ahead of him. The soft ground wasn’t his favour either. He’s attractively weighted, being 2lb lower than his last winning mark and if the ground is no worse than yielding has each way claims. Robbie Power takes the ride and he will be riding at his minimum weight of 10-4.

Movewiththetimes looks set to go off favourite. Formerly with Paul Nicholls the 8-year-old was well fancied to make a winning start for Enda Bolger when sent off the 7/1 joint favourite for the Galway Plate but fell at the 9^th.  Made no mistake when landing a beginners’ chase at Killarney 20-days ago. Despite being a novice, he’s got plenty of experience in big field handicaps over fences & hurdles. Yet to try 3m but should stay and will like the ground.

Ravenhill trained by Gordon Elliott ran a cracker to finish 5^th in the Galway Plate. The step up to 3m will suit the 8-year-old. However, will the going, if it turns soft? His best form has come on a sound surface so far in his career. Big chance off a nice racing weight.

Poker Party only got as far as the second in the Galway Plate. A good novice last season he should be suited by the step up to 3m and will like the ground. The 7-year-old needs to improve further but may be capable of doing so on his second season over fences.

Trainer Eric McNamara has won the Kerry National three times and he has two live contenders in Internal Transfer & first reserve Black Scorpion. The former made it 2 from 2 over fences when winning a Limerick handicap chase. He’s been raised 9lb for that win and lacks the experience of most of his rivals. At least there’s no issues with rain softened ground and he’s capable of more improvement over fences. Black Scorpion, who was impressive last year when winning a handicap chase here 12 months ago and then ran just as well when 3^rd in the Munster National at Limerick on his next start. The 8-year returned to action from a 200-day break to finish 3rd of 11 over an inadequate 2m 1`f at Killarney last month, doing his best work at the finish. That race should have put him spot on fitness wise for this and this has been the plan since he won here 12 months ago. If he gets in, can go well off just 9-11.

Icantsay wasn’t so good over hurdles on his last startbut prior to that had ran a cracker to finish 2^nd of 16 in the Galway Blazers. Last years Killarney National winner, off 4lb lower, looks the sort to do well in a race like this. Goes well at the track with form figures 2231. A useful 5lb claimer has been booked for the ride and the 9-year-old has a good chance of getting into the money with a reproduction of his Galway run.

Willie Mullins saddles Pravalaguna, Some Neck & Yorkhill and all three have chances. The first named was 7^th in the Galway Plate but 3 miles may stretch the mare’s stamina. Some Neck gets the first-time blinkers. No issues with the trip for the 8-year-old who is a real staying type. Tried to give Yorkhill 7lb at Galway but was not match for his stablemate at the weights. His jumping let him down at Galway as it did when second favourite for the Thyestes Handicap Chase back in January. More than capable of landing a race like this off his present mark with an error free round of jumping. Yorkhill is a horse with plenty of ability but has a mind of his own. The 9-year-old won the JLT Novice Chase at the Cheltenham festival in 2017. He’s better going left-handed and he’s clearly a well handicapped horse if he puts it all in. The question is will he?

Verdict: Yorkhill is the class horse who could beat these easily if he feels like it. Some Neck is another potential winner, but he needs to jump better. Icantsay may lack a bit of class but he’s got each way claims. As does Dell’ Arca. Movewiththetimes remains capable of much better over fences and is a worthy market leader.

The going could play a big part in the outcome. The better the ground the better the more I like Ravenhill’s chance. The same applies to last year’s 5^th Shantou Village. The Eric McNamara pair are strong contenders. The sounder surface will benefit Black Scorpion if he sneaks in the race, but softer ground would favour his other runner Internal Transfer.

In the hope that the going is no worse than yielding I will go for Black Scorpion, if he gets in and Shantou Village.

Black Scorpion – 9/1 @ Paddy Power

Shantou Village – 14/1 @ William Hill – each way (paying 5 places 1/5 odds)

Cheers

John

Hi all,

Franklin Street (4/1) handled the testing ground very well at Listowel on Monday to register a ‘gutsy’ win.

It’s day three of the Listowel Festival and it’s the NH horses who take centre stage, well the hurdlers do. The ground will probably ease a bit further today.

Listowel

3:35 – Top-weight Gardens Of Babylon is the class horse of the race. The 4-year-old struggled in the Galway Hurdle but was a smart juvenile hurdler who finished third in the Triumph Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival before winning a novice hurdle at Punchestown.  He’s yet to race on soft ground, seemed to handle it on his 2-year-old debut, and will probably need further than two miles this season. Owner J P McManus has three of the first four in the betting. Besides Garden’s Of Babylon he also has Top Moon and Morosini who are contenders. But with Hugh Morgan taking off 7lb I’m hoping that class will tell.

Gardens Of Babylon – 6/1 @ William Hill

4:05 – Drop The Anchor was an impressive winner of a bumper on similar ground here 12 months ago and seemed set for a good hurdling career.  Things didn’t quite pan out as connections would have hoped. The 5-year-old was well fancied (8/1) for a valuable handicap hurdle at the Punchestown Festival but didn’t jump well enough and could never get competitive. Unlike the previous selection the more rain the better for Drop the Anchor. Returns from a 131-day break but won last year off a similar lay off. A mark of 115 looks workable if his jumping has improved and he’s got a good chance of getting into the money here if it has.

Drop The Anchor – 12/1 @ Paddy Power & William Hill – each way (both paying 4 places ¼ odds)

Cheers

John

Hi all,

Irish raider Shamad saved the day on Sunday. A shade frustrated that I didn’t put up Coolagh Forest up as a selection but hopefully some of you had a saver on the 3-year-old.

The Listowel Festival got underway yesterday and I have three selections from the Irish venue.

Listowel

3:55 – Perfect Tapatino has a likeable profile with a career record of 5 wins from 17 runs 10 placed. If you dig further and look at his record over 1m 4f, on ground from good to yielding to soft, his form figures are 1121921.  Last time out the top-weight put up a near career best when winning at Gowran Park, 26-days ago. The handicapper has only raised him 2lb for that success and I don’t think the 5-year-old’s progress has finished yet.

Perfect Tapatino – 9/2 @ Paddy Power or 4/1 Gen

4:25 – Aidan O’Brien saddles the favourite in Emperor Of The Sun. The recent Galway winner makes his nursery debut here. H gets the first time cheekpieces and looks the one to beat even off top weight.  Joseph O’Brien saddles likely second favourite Franklin Street. The colt is also making his nursery debut. He improved for the step up to a mile when runner-up to Yulong Voice at Bellewstown 12-days ago. That one re-opposes again and there shouldn’t be much between the pair again. Both Franklin Street and Yulong Voice looks capable of winning races but on the occasion, I just prefer the former who might enjoy the easier ground more.

Franklin Street – 4/1 – Gen

4:55 – Eagles Rock sole career win came here on an easy ground over 7f back in June. The filly hasn’t been disgraced on a sounder surface on three subsequent starts. Last time out she was finishing best of all when 4^th of 12 at Galway 40-days ago. Today’s softer ground will suit her, and she looks to have solid each-way claims.

Eagles Rock – 7/1 – Gen

Cheers

John

Hi all,

Two winner’s courtesy of Kasbaan & The Swindler and a handful of placed efforts mean Saturday wasn’t as bad a day as first feared.

There’s a decent looking card at York, for Family Day, on Sunday and over the Irish Sea it’s start of the Listowel Festival. However, the days biggest race is the Group 1 Prix du Moulin de Longchamp.

Today’s selections at York and Longchamp.

Longchamp

2:50 – Prix du Moulin de Longchamp (Group 1) – 1m

The likes of Phoenix Of Spain and Circus Maximus need no introduction. Romanised won the Group 1 Jacques le Marois, at Deauville beating Shaman by 1 ½ lengths. He beat the runner-up on merit that day but has to show he’s as good on turning track. Unlike the first three mentioned Shaman has yet to win a Group 1 but besides his second in the Jacques le  Marois, he also finished runner-up in the French 2,000 Guineas over C&D.  Looks capable of winning at this level and given his liking for the track looks worth an each-way play here.

Shaman – 8/1 @ Paddy Power – each way

York

2:20 – There was plenty to like about Five Helmet’s win at Beverley 14-days ago. The 3-year-old was held-up off a slow gallop so in the circumstances did well to come from behind to win by ½ length. Up 3lb for that win and also up a couple of notches in class means the gelding has to find a bit more improvement. That improvement could well be forthcoming as he’s going the right way and should be better suited by a stronger pace to chase. Coolagh Forest drops back a notch in class here. The 3-year-old ran better than his final position of 8^th suggests, beaten 3 ¾ lengths at the finish He would have finished closer but for being hampered two furlongs out.  Steps up 2 ½ f in distance but should stay, has won over 1m 1f albeit it at Musselburgh. Trainer Richard Fahey has won this race three times since 2012 which means Coolagh Forest has to be respected.

Five Helmets – 12/1 @ Bet365 & William Hill – each way (paying 4 places ¼ odds)

4:30 – Roulston Scar is sure to be popular after his 3^rd of 19 over 5f at the Ebor Festival. The step up to 6f isn’t an issue for the 3-year-old and he looks a solid market leader. Stablemate Yousini could give him most to do. He was 5^th of 22 over C&D three starts back. Not so good on his last two starts but was possibly unsuited to the soft ground on both occasions. A reproduction of his length second at Newmarket on his seasonal reappearance, off 2lb higher gives him solid each way claims. Jonah Jones won over C&D last Autumn. He hasn’t run well on either start this season but could well bounce back to form for a drop back to 6f.

Yousini – 11/1 @ Paddy Power & BetVictor – each way

5:00 – Black Kalanisi, a winner over hurdles made a winning handicap debut at Brighton 31-days ago. Albeit his win was achieved in the steward’s room after the race.  Up 2lb but he’s unexposed in the sphere and could be up to defying his new mark. Irish raider Shamad has won two of his last three starts. Up 4lb for a win the Amateurs Derby at the Curragh 9-days ago. Interesting to see connections bring the 4-year-old over here rather go for a race at Listowel.  He’s going the right way and looks suited to a sound surface.

Black Kalanisi – 13/2 @ Bet365 & BetVictor

Shamad – 4/1 @ Bet365

My next scheduled post is on Wednesday for day one of the William Hill St Leger Festival but there maybe a selection or two from Listowel on Monday & Tuesday.

Cheers

John

Hi all,

Plenty of betting opportunities on Saturday at Haydock, Ascot and Kempton. The latter course hosts it’s most valuable all-weather meeting with the Group 3 September Stakes being the feature race of a seven-race card.

The defection of Advertise from the Group 1 Sprint Cup at Haydock means the race has lost some of its lustre. Add in the likelihood that Ten Sovereign’s won’t run due to soft ground and you now have a very open looking race.

It’s at Haydock, which also holds in most valuable flat meeting of the season, where I shall begin this Saturday betting preview.

Haydock

1:50 – First In Line was runner-up to Hamish in the Melrose Handicap 14-days ago. That arguably the best form on offer here and he looked a potential group horse at York.  Up 4lb from York and the ground will be much softer, which is a bit of an unknown, but the John Gosden trained colt did win on good to soft at Doncaster two starts back.

Sir Michael Stoute won this race last year with Mekong and he’s double handed this year with previous C&D winner Calculation, the choice of Ryan Moore and Laafy. The latter improved for the step up to 1m 6f and the first-time visor when winning on heavy at Nottingham 22-days ago. If this race hasn’t come to quick, he’s only up 4lb and has the look of an improving stayer. Calculation has also improved for the fitting of the visor winning his last three starts. He’s up 7lb for last of those wins and like is stablemate is going the right way now stepped up distance.

Elysian Flame showed he’s a real ‘mudlark’ when winning the Lanark Silver Bell at Hamilton last week, he also won here on heavy as 2-year-old. This will be only the geldings sixth career start so remains open to further improvement. He didn’t look like he was stopping at Hamilton over 1m 4f so should get today’s extra two furlongs.

With the Alan King horses going well. His runner Trueshan needs respecting on his handicap debut. The winner of Ffos Las novice nine days ago. He still looked a work in progress that day but ultimately ran out a decisive winner at the line. This will be the softest ground he’s faced since his juvenile debut but there’s hope in the pedigree that he should be fine on it.  You can hardly say his mark of 91 is a gift but he’s open to plenty more improvement.

Verdict: In a handicap with plenty of runners open to further progress. My preferences are for Laafy and Trueshan.

Laafy – 11/1 @ William Hill – each way

Trueshan – 11/1 @ Bet365

3:35 – Betfair Exchange Old Borough Cup Handicap (Class 2) – 1m 6f

A field of 17 are declared to go to post for this year’s renewal. At the head of the market we have several contenders including last year’s winner Reshoun who went on to finish 3^rd in the November Handicap. Not so good this season but this is his time of year and his best form has come on rain softened ground. Just 3lb higher than last year and looks capable of going close again.

Corelli was beaten just a head in hot handicap at York 15-days ago. He’s up 2lb for that effort but should remain competitive. He wouldn’t be winning one of these out of turn that for sure. Steps up to 1m 6f, should stay this far on pedigree and although he’s won on soft it would be a bit of an unknown in this company.

Alright Sunshine comes into the race an improving 4-year-old who won over today’s trip on soft ground at Musselburgh 29-days ago. Different track here compared to his last two starts at Musselburgh & Ripon but no reason why he won’t go this way around. Up 5lb for his last win but he’s improving and defying it is a definite possibility.

The likes of Not So Sleepy and Blakeney Point need no introductions. They are both handicapped to win this, if at their best, and will appreciate the rain softened ground.  

Crystal King looked set for a good season when winning at Wolverhampton on his seasonal reappearance. Two disappointing efforts on good to firm with an excellent 3^rd of 14 at Ayr (good) sandwiched in between. He finished just ¾ lengths behind Kelly’s Dino that day. He’s got ability but is none to consistent and is probably quirky, but Sir Michael Stoute opts for the first-time visor. If the headgear works, the trick he’s very much a contender and will appreciate today’s easier underfoot conditions. Sir Michal Stoute also saddles Melting Dew (Ryan Moore) who was an excellent 4^th of 17 at York last time. That run was over 2m ½ f and the slight drop back in distance will suit. Not without a chance at his best but the 5-year-old remains 1 win from 16 runs on turf so looks vulnerable from a win perspective.

Verdict: Blakeney Point is more than capable of winning this if he’s at his best. Crystal King should appreciate the ground and is on a competitive mark if the first-time visor works. The consistent Corelli wouldn’t be winning out of turn and the top weight is the one they have to beat.

Corelli – 13/2 @ Bet365

Crystal King – 14/1 @ Bet365 – each way (paying 4 places ¼ odds)

4:10 – Betfair Sprint Cup Stakes (Group 1) – 6f

With Advertise & Ten Sovereign’s now out the race it looks a shade below standard. That doesn’t make the race any easier to predict.  

Forever In Dreams won a Listed race over C&D back in May before improving to run Advertise to 1 ½ lengths in the Commonwealth Cup at Royal Ascot. Not raced since Ascot and needs to improve a bit further to win this but she’s only had the six career starts so maybe capable of doing so. Had form on soft ground as a juvenile when trained France. Looks to have been underestimated by the bookies.

Waldpfad had Khaadem 1 ¾ lengths back in third when winning a Group 3 at Newbury two starts back. Once he hit the front a furlong from home, he was strong all the way to the line. Khaadem, who he beat fair and square has since gone onto win the Stewards Cup so there was no fluke to Waldpfad’s win. The 5-year-old wasn’t as good in a Group 2 Germany 13-days ago but the return to an easier surface will be in his favour. He’s almost 4 times the price of Khaadem so it looks like he’s been underestimated in the betting as he was at Newbury.

Forever In Dreams – 14/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes – each way

Waldpfad – 11/1 – Gen – each way

4:45 – Foolaad a winner at Doncaster off 1lb higher back in March, has disappointed on his last three starts but a reproduction of this season’s best form entitles the 8-year-old to plenty of respect here.

Foolaad – 11/1 @ William Hill & Ladbrokes – each way

Kempton

3:15 – Sun Racing “London Mile” Handicap (Series Final) (Class 2) – 1m

Kasbaan won a series qualifier over C&D 4-days ago. The 4-year-old who is now 2-2 on the all-weather showed a good battling attitude at the finish on Tuesday which hold him in good stead here. Stall 10 could have been better but he’s progressive and only has a 5lb penalty. Provided this race doesn’t come to quick and his wide draw isn’t an inconvenience he’s the one they all have to beat.

Kasbaan – 5/1 @ Paddy Power & William Hill

Ascot

2:45 – Cunard Handicap (Class 2) – 7f

Ripp Orf hasn’t quite been at his best this season, although he was 5^th of 26 in the Victoria Cup over C&D back in May but he’s on a competitive handicap mark, just 1lb higher than when winning this race 12 months ago.

Blackheath a winner over 7f at Leicester three starts. The 4-year-old didn’t get any luck in the run when 7^th of 18 at Goodwood on his next start and probably didn’t stay over a mile at York. A return to a stiff 7f will be in the gelding’s favour and he’s got each way claims.

Ripp Orf – 5/1 @ William Hill & Bet365

Blackheath – 20/1 @ William Hill – each way (paying 5 places 1/5 odds)

3:55 – Lavazza Stakes (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2)

Andrew Balding won this race in 2015 and has a decent chance of winning it again with Never Do Nothing. The 3-year-old has been steadily progressive this season and put in a career best when runner-up over C&D 28-days ago. Nudged up 2lb for that effort demand a bit more improvement from the gelding but he looks capable of getting into the money.

Never Do Nothing – 12/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes – each way (paying 4 places 1/5 odds)

4:30 – The Swindler looked a handicap sprinter worth following when running out an easy winner over C&D back in July, off 8lb lower. Not quite as good at Newmarket when sent off the 5/2 favourite on his next start but he didn’t have the best of starts that day and could never really get competitive. The 3-year-old is only having his 6^th career start so remains open to further progress and is worth another chance.

The Swindler – 5/1 @ Bet365

Cheers

John

Hi all,

In last week’s notebook I gave a favourable mention to Justanotherbottle and Themaxwecan who both won last weekend. The latter remains an improving 3-year-old who looks more and more a Cesarewitch horse with each race and the 25/1 available about him for this year’s race look attractive.

This weekend it’s the Group 1 Sprint Cup at Haydock that will be holding the attention of the racing press. Besides the big one there are some good supporting races. Ascot and Kempton also host good cards on Saturday.

On Sunday It’s family day at York and over the Irish Sea it’s also the start of the Listowel Harvest Festival. With Doncaster’s St Leger Festival starting on Wednesday and Irish Champions Weekend a few days later. We racing fans have plenty to look forward to over the next week or so. All we need is a few winners!

Before I look at this weekend’s action let’s look back at last week’s action and a few horses that could be worth adding to your trackers.

Eyecatchers – W/e September – 01/09

Compared to the previous week there’s not so much on the eyecatcher front.

Friday August 30^th

Thirsk

Lahore – Philip Makin

A smart 3-year-old two seasons back when trained by Roger Varian. The lightly raced gelding took a bit of time to find his form this season for his new trainer but won at Ripon three starts back before finishing 8^th of 17 in the Great St Wilfrid Handicap. 

He appreciated the drop back in Class 3 company when 2^nd of 16 in a competitive 6f handicap won by the progressive Bielsa, beaten a head.  He remains in form and despite being raised 4lb for this effort should remain competitive.

Sandown

Lyndon B – Michael Bell

A winner three starts back at Leicester. The 3-year-old had then run well to finish 3^rd of 18 at Goodwood. He maintained his recent improvement when beating five rivals at Sandown. Held-up in a race that wasn’t run at a great early pace, the gelding’s effort is better than the neck margin of victory suggests.

He’s only had the eight career starts so there could be a bit more progress to come. The handicapper has put him up 7lb for this win which will make life tougher but at a mile, on a sound surface he looks capable of running well.

Saturday August 31^st

Chelmsford

Blue Mist – Roger Charlton

The 4-year-old who had run well when 3^rd in a big field 7f handicap at Ascot on previous start, had looked a major player in the most valuable race on Saturday.  He wasn’t disgraced when 6^th of 15, beaten 2 ½ lengths. He would have finished a bit closer with a clearer passage inside the final furlong.

Looks worth another over a mile as he was doing his best work at the finish here. He night well be a ‘cliff horse’ in the making but I think there is a win in him before the year is out either on turf or all-weather.

Sandown

Jumira Bridge – Robert Cowell

There were a couple of horses that caught the eye in the 5f handicap that opened Sandown’s Saturday card. Saaheq didn’t get the best of runs when making his effort a furlong out and looked a shade unlucky in 4^th.

Meanwhile Jumira Bridge was arguably even more unlucky in the run. The 5-year-old remains on a winnable handicap mark and finished his race off full of running into 5^th.  When racing off an Official Rating of 90 or less he’s 3 wins from 7 runs 43% +12.83 5 placed 71% when racing 91 or higher he’s 0 wins from 18 runs 3 placed.

Tends to race on a sound surface so he may or may not get his favoured underfoot conditions in the coming weeks but when he does, he can win again.

Cheers

John

Hi all,

This week’s notebook will be with you later this afternoon. Until then I have a selection from Haydock running this afternoon.

Haydock

4:20 – The consistent Epaulement has some rock-solid form in Class 2 middle distance handicaps, including when 5^th of 16, beaten 2 lengths, in a hot handicap at York 13-days ago. A reproduction of his York run would probably good enough here especially as the slightly shorter trip will suit the 4-year-old. Granted the ground will much softer that it was last time, but he went close at Chester on soft back in May. Dragons Voice is handicapped to go close on his soft ground form. The 5-year-old didn’t stay when tried over 1m 6f at Musselburgh 27-days ago and is another who will like the drop back in distance. His best form has also come on rain softened ground so underfoot conditions will be ideal. Not sure he’s up to this level but there is enough in his favour to give his  backers plenty of hope and he rates a danger.

Epaulement – 10/3 @ Bet365

Cheers

John

Hi all,

I have two selections for Monday one runs at Chepstow and the other at Windsor.

Chepstow

3:45 – Graphite Storm won at Newmarket (good to firm) two starts back before struggling to land a blow on soft ground last time. Has won on soft ground in the past but seems to prefer quicker ground these days. The 5-year-old is well handicapped and a return to a sounder surface will be in his favour.

Graphite Storm – 3/1 – Gen

Windsor

6:00 – Harry Hurricane did us a favour here 14-days ago. He’s up 3lb for that win but remains competitively weighted on his best form.  However, today I’m going with Foxy Forever. The 9-year-old won at Bath back in June and hasn’t had the best of runs on his last two starts. Last time out he was 5^th of 11 at Newmarket, beaten 1 ¼ lengths off 1lb higher. Likes to come off a strong pace and should get that here. Needs all the cards to fall right but if they do, he’s on a winnable mark on ground that suits.

Foxy Forever – 15/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

I’m away now till Thursday when I will be sending through my latest weekly notebook.

Cheers

John