Hi all,
What a relief as the well backed King Carney wins at an early priced advised 7/1.
There are no selections today but my weekly notebook containing two weeks of eyecatchers will be with you later today.
There are no selections today.
Cheers
John
Hi all,
Not so good yesterday although we did have a couple of placed efforts. I wasn’t going to put up a selection today but I’m off to Pontefract this afternoon and there is a decent Listed race for 2-year-olds.
You’re probably wondering where the notebook horses are. Well I have decided to combine last weeks tracker horses with those for the weekend just gone. They will be with you after racing today.
It looks like it will be quiet on the tips front until Friday. If there are any selections, they will be with by 9am each morning.
3:50 – ebfstallions.com Silver Tankard Stakes (Listed Race) – 1m
Just the six juveniles go to post for an intriguing renewal of this valuable race and five of them were last time out winners. Grand Rock, trained by William Haggas, 2-2 on heavy, heads the market and has a solid chance if the going is as testing again.
My eyes are drawn to the Ralph Beckett trained colt Wyclif. The trainer won this race 12 months ago and is 2-2 in the race in the past ten years. A winner on soft ground at Doncaster on his racecourse debut. He’s since gone on to win a valuable novice under a penalty at York. Bred to appreciate 1m+ he should give his backers a good run for their money.
As tempted as I’m by the claims of the Beckett colt. At the prices a chance is taken with King Carney trained by Charlie Fellowes. On his form so he’s got a bit to find with the previous two horses mentioned but he’s improved with each of his three career starts and last time he stayed on strongly to win a soft ground maiden at Nottingham 12-days ago. On pedigree the son of Australia is capable of more improvement and can go well with ground in his favour.
Cheers
John
Hi all,
It’s Champions Day at Ascot today. To all intents and purposes, it’s the day the curtain descends on the British flat racing season although officially it ends in three weeks.
It’s a tremendous six race card at Ascot and I have had a good look at four of the race on the card.
The recent rain means racing on Ascot’s round course has been switch to the inner hurdles track which is being described as good to soft and it heavy on the straight course.
1:35 – Qipco British Champions Sprint Stakes (Group 1) – 6f
In Monday’s Daily Punt I told readers I was sweet on the chances of Sands Of Mali. This is what I wrote
“The 4-year-old won last year’s renewal on soft ground and looks to have been trained with this race in mind. He looks a cracking each-way price at 20/1”.
He’s not that price now but his chance does remain the same.
Librisa Breeze won this in 2017 on soft ground. He was only 11th behind Sands Of Mali 12 months ago. However, 2018 was a bit of a write off. The 7-year-old has made just one start in 2019 when a promising 2nd of 7 in the Hungerford Stakes at Newbury 63-days ago. That was his best form for some time, and he shouldn’t be far away at the finish.
The Tin Man won this in 2016. He was only 7th in this last year but he wasn’t suited by the slow early pace. A stronger overall gallop would put him very much in the mix and he returned to form with a clear seasonal best when runner-up on soft ground in the Sprint Cup at Haydock 42-days ago.
The winner in the Sprint Cup was Hello Youmzain. Now the 3-year-old is a sprinter on the up but he’s half the odds of The Tin Man who might be better suited to the stiffer track here.
The rapidly improving Make A Challenge is a potential spoiler. He’s been supplemented for this after a comfortable win in a Listed race at the Curragh 6-days ago. A real ‘mudlark’ and deserves his chance here. Has a bit to find with those higher up the ratings but whose to say if he’s’ found his class ceiling just yet.
Verdict: One of the most competitive races of Champions Day. Sands Of Mali made all to win 12 months ago but isn’t certain to get things his own way out in front this time. A more even gallop will suit The Tin Man and Make A Challenge will his give his backers a good run for their money.
2:10 – Qipco British Champions Long Distance Cup (Group 2) – 2m
Hard to look beyond last year winner and Champion Stayer Stradivarius. A lot depends on how soft the hurdles track turns out to be. If it’s softer than good then Royal Line, a stablemate of Stradivarius, could be the one for the places. He’s yet to prove he stays 2m but shapes like he will and the softer the ground the better his chance. Comes into the race after a win the Group 3 September Stakes at Kempton 42-days ago.
3:20 – Queen Elizabeth II Stakes (Group 1) – 1m
All the money this week has been for’ mud loving’ French raider The Revenant and his claims are strong in a division that’s not strong. Plenty to like about the 4-year-old chance but all the value has probably now gone. Lord Glitters was a shade disappointing when only 6th in this race last year. However, given his overall form at the track he’s very much a contender at his best. Mohaather looked set for a good season after a taking win in the Greenham Stakes on his seasonal reappearance. He suffered a ‘setback’ after that race and hasn’t been able to run since the Greenham. Lightly raced, just his 4th career start, and his first go at a mile. Not short on pace but should get the trip and handles good to soft but a mile on heavy ground will be a real stamina test for the 3-year-old.
4:00 – Balmoral Handicap (Sponsored By Qipco) (Class 2) – 1m
A field of 20 go to post for this valuable mile handicap on the straight course.
Clon Coulis was beaten just a nose on soft ground over C&D in the Royal Hunt Cup. Not so good on four subsequent races but a return to s strongly run stiff mile will suit the mare who will be hard to keep out of the money if reproducing her Hunt Cup form. Her stablemate Kynren broke a long losing run when winning here over 7f. A 6lb penalty makes life tougher for the 5-year-old but he can never be discounted in these sorts of race.
John Gosden saddles a pair of live contenders in recent Cambridgshire winner Lord North and Kick On. Top weight, on heavy ground, asks a different set of questions for Lord North but he’s very much on the upgrade and if he handles the ground remains a big player. Unlike his stablemate Kick On is proven with juice in the ground. A winner of a Group 3 at Salisbury on his last start he’s on a tough mark for his handicap debut but can’t be discounted.
Biometric won the valuable Britannia Handicap over C&D at Royal Ascot. Not at that level on two subsequent starts and maybe a shade high in the handicap. However, given his straight course form he can’t be easily dismissed. Another with good past course form is Flaming Spear. The 7-year-old is talented enough to win if in the mood, but you never really know what mood he’s in. Glen Shiel looks to have plenty to do on his third start for Archie Watson but he’s on a workable mark based on his best French form and has winning form in testing ground in France. Has each way claims in a competitive handicap.
Verdict: You wouldn’t be surprised ir Kynren was to win again but I do prefer his stablemate Clon Coulis. Of the Gosden pair I just prefer Kick On. For those looking for one at bigger odds I wouldn’t put you off Glen Shiel.
Verdict: Like the first race it’s a competitive race as you would expect from a valuable 20 runner handicap.
There is racing beyond Ascot. At Ffos Las we have the Welsh Champion Hurdle and Market Rasen plays host to a good jumps card.
4:15 – Eleven have been declared to go post for this year’s renewal of the Welsh Champion Hurdle. It’s a handicap which usually produces some strong form for later in the season including the Cheltenham Festival. It’s a race I will be taking a close look with the future in mind.
Monsieur Lecoq looks a worthy favourite. A winner of a heavy ground C&D maiden last December. He then went on to win at Sandown before finishing 2nd of 13 in the Imperial Cup at the same track. Probably found the County Hurdle at Cheltenham came to quick after his Imperial Cup run when only 10th of 24. Just 3lb higher than at Sandown he’s capable of better this season and with ground to suit can make a winning seasonal reappearance.
Paul Nicholls has made a good start to the autumn jumps campaign. He saddles last years runner-up Le Prezien. The 8-year-old wasn’t in the same form on three subsequent chase starts last season but can’t be discounted here. He can race of 2lb lower than 12 months ago and todays anticipated softer ground will suit him better than last year. Should be fit enough for his seasonal reappearance and is a big player albeit he’s vulnerable to an improver like the favourite.
Market Rasen
4:20 – A competitive nine runner Class 2 handicap chase. Whoshotwho is 2 from 2 over C&D, both wins on good ground but is effective on softer. Can go well fresh and has good claims on return to track that clearly suits.
Due to recent flub jab I have had bit of a cold so wasn’t able to complete last weeks notebook but it will be with you tomorrow.
Cheers
John
Hi all,
It’s a bit of a surprise but today’s best races seem to be at Wolverhampton.
6:25 – El Hombre – 13/2 @ Bet365 – Has a good record over 6f on the tapeta. Last win came here over C&D last December off 4lb lower. Not so good when last seen in the Goodwood Stewards Cup but prior to showed that he was capable off this mark when 3rd of 13, beaten a length, over 5f at Newcastle.
7:55 – Casanova won hereback in August and followed up in good style at Sandown. Pulled to hard in a valuable 7f handicap at last time. Hood on for the first time looks a good move but has a tough draw in stall 10 to overcome. If his draw isn’t an inconvenience and the hood has, the desired effect he remains capable of better.
Cheers
John
Hi all,
Let The Heirs Walk ran well to finish 3rd at Punchestown yesterday. Here’s hoping we can go two better at Wincanton on today.
4:25 – Dollnamix, trained by Emma Lavelle remains a maiden after ten starts but seemed to improve with racing in the spring. Fell two out when looking the most likely winner at Taunton back in March before finishing 2nd of 13 at Exeter on his final start of last season. The 8-year-old makes his seasonal reappearance after a 191-day absence but if straight enough can get his first career win.
This week’s notebook will be with you later today.
Cheers
John
Hi all,
2:35 – It could be that Let The Heirs Walk could be at his best at Cork. His best RPR came at that track when 3rd of 13 their two starts back. Found a either a soft ground or an extended 2m 2f or a combination of both too much when running below his Cork form at Ballinrobe 50-days ago. Better judged on his Cork run and a reproduction of that run, off 2lb higher would see the 5-year-old go close in the hands of Davy Russell.
Cheers
John
Hi all,
A rare midweek foray for me.
2:25 – Artic Pearl won a handicap hurdle here on his last start 310 days ago. Form figures over fences are 31U5UP. The 8-year-old’s sole chase win came in a beginners’ chase at Leopardstown in March 2018 but was arguably unlucky not have won at least one more of over the larger obstacles. Returns to chasing today and connections will be disappointed if he can’t exploit his current mark this season.
Cheers
John
Hi all,
We couldn’t end the weekend with a winner yesterday but the weather is starting to play havoc at the moment.
There are no selections today.
Fingers crossed, I will have my weekly notebook with you on Wednesday and it will contain my look back at Chepstow and the first big meeting of the winter jumps season.
Cheers
John
Hi all,
A tough day for punters on Saturday. Who Dares Wins plugged on into 7th in the Cesarewitch to keep losses to a minimum.
Two top handicaps today, both over the Irish Sea. At the Curragh it’s the Irish Cesarewitch and at Limerick it’s the Munster National.
Let’s begin Sunday’s betting preview at the Curragh.
4:25 – Tote Irish Cesarewitch (Premier Handicap) – 2m
A field of 18 are declared to go to post for this year’s race on going being described as yielding to soft.
Nessun Dorma caught the eye when a running on 5th of 17 at Leopardstown on his seasonal reappearance 29-days ago. He was 4th in this race last year, when it was run at Navan, and should well again if he stays 2m on what is likely to be testing ground.
Looking at the race trends: Nine of the last ten winners of this race shared the following three traits:
Age: 3yo to 5yo
Best In Three Runs: 1st or 2nd
Distance Move: Same or up 6f
There are five qualifiers: Saglawy, Rock De Baune, Royal Aide, Red Gerry & Shamad.
Saglawy like Nessun Dorma, trained by Willie Mullins, returned from 258-day break when winning over 1m 6f at Listowel 31-days ago. A mark of 97 looks workable and the 5-year-old looks a worthy favourite given he handles ease in the ground
Rock De Baune also won at Listowel over 1m 6f, 31-days ago. The 5-year-old is up 8lb for that success but remains on a workable mark. Strong at the finish at Listowel and likes soft ground. Has to be high on the shortlist.
Royal Aide comes into the race looking for the hat trick after wins at Killarney & Bellewstown. The 3-year-old is going the right way, should improve further for the step up in distance from 1m 4f and Killarney win came on soft.
Red Gerry remains on an upward curve after his 2nd of 10 at Listowel 34-days ago. The 3-year-old is another who shapes like he can improve for a step up in trip although on pedigree stamina for a strongly run 2 miles on soft ground is a doubt.
Shamad has been well placed to win his last three races over 1m 4f/1m 5f. All three wins have come on good ground. Up 5lb and this will be a much different test today.
Verdict: We may not have seen the best of Saglawy or Rock De Baune yet and they will do for me.
3:50 – A field of 14 have been declared for this 6f handicap. There are several well handicapped horses who could bounce back to form on soft ground in what looks a tricky race. The four I like most are:
Mary Salome was 5th of 24 over C&D three starts back and looked the sort for a handicap like this. The 3-year-old has disappointed on two subsequent starts but is 2lb lower now. Bo issues with soft ground and a reproduction of her C&D 5th would see her go close.
Scorching Heat, won the Goodwood Stewards Cup consolation race for previous trainer Andrew balding in 2017, off 3lb higher. The 5-year-old was two places and ½ length behind Mary Salome in that Curragh race and is 2lb better off today. Not so good on his last two starts but back to 6f can go close if all the cards fall right.
The Brogie Man shaped like he can win a handicap like this, on soft ground, when 5th of 14 over C&D back in August, off 6lb higher Not so good on his next two starts but the 4-year-old bounced back to form when 3rd of 15 at Cork 12-days ago. Drops back a furlong here but the more testing the ground the more his stamina will come into play.
Fridtjof Nansen win a big field handicap over ½ f further back in August and was unlucky not follow up over C&D on his next start when finishing one place ahead of Mary Salome. Has remaind in good form 2nd of 14 at Dundalk before seriously unlucky in the run when 9th of 20 here over 5f 15-days ago. Looked to be travelling well coming to the final two furlongs but was caught behind horses and didn’t get a clear run. Not knocked about in the final half furlong and ran better than his final position suggests.
Verdict: My tentative picks are The Brogie Man and Fridtjof Nansen.
4:35 – JT McNamara Ladbrokes Munster National Handicap Chase (Grade A) – 3m
Sixteen have been declared for this historic handicap chase which is likely to be run on soft to heavy ground.
Looking at the race 10-year trends. All ten winners shared the following:
Age: 6yo to 8yo
Best In Three Runs: 1st or 2nd
Highest Class Run: Grade 1 or Grade 2
Maximum Distance Won: 2m 4f to 3m 1f
There are just two qualifiers if we use the above trends:
Internal Transfer
Movewiththetimes
Internal Transfer put in a career best when 4th of 18 in the Kerry National. The return to Limerick will be in the 8-year-old’s favour – 3 wins from 3 runs here – and he’s won on heavy in the past. This is just his 4th start over fences and looks capable of better still in the sphere. Will probably be held onto a big longer today and has a big chance if he truly stays 3m on what is sure to be a stamina sapping 3m.
Movewiththetimes like Internal Transfer has slight stamina doubts on the going. Had good hurdle form when trained by Paul Nicholls, finishing runner-up in the 2017 Betfair Handicap Hurdle at Newbury. Has yet to really click over fences just 1 win from 10 runs. That sole win came for present trainer when winning a Killarney beginners’ chase two starts back. Sent off the 5/2 favourite for the Kerry National, finished well down the field shaping like a mon-stayer. On a recovery mission here and has the ability to win a race like this. Will he get home over 3m on heavy ground?
Verdict: It may seem strange to go for two horses who have stamina doubts, but I will stick with the trends here.
Good luck I think it will be needed today.
Cheers
John
Hi all,
Yesterday went rather well, clearly a nice profit helps but it was also pleasing to read yesterday’s highlighted races so well. Which has often been the case in recent months.
Like Friday, there’s some great racing on offer.
4:10 – Emirates Cesarewitch Stakes (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) – 2m 2f
The second leg of the ‘Autumn Double’ and today’s big betting race.
Great White Shark looks to have the right sort of profile for the race. The 5-year-old bolted up on her last start on the flat at Galway. Not so good on two subsequent starts over hurdles. Up 9lb for her Galway win clearly demands more but she looks more than capable of finding that improvement.
Top weight Who Dares Wins might be a 7-year-old, but he’s been in the form of his life this season. Winning the Northumberland Plate back in June before finishing 4th of 16 behind Withhold in a valuable Newbury handicap. Returned to action seven days ago when 4th of 10 in the Group 1 Prix Du Cadran at Longchamp 7-days ago. He goes well on soft and has won over C&D in the past. Apprentice jockeys don’t have the best of records in the race, but Angus Villiers takes off a useful 7lb. Provided this doesn’t come too quick after Longchamp he must have a chance of getting into the money.
5:20 – Indeed, steps out of handicap company today but he has shaped like a pattern horse especially when he gets rain softened ground. Slight concern that he was said to have bled after his last run at Goodwood, but he can go close here.
3:50 – Coral Sprint Trophy Handicap (Class 2) – 6f
A maximum field of 22 are set to go to post for this highly competitive sprint handicap
Aplomb put in a career best when 2nd of 10 at Ascot 8-days ago. The 3-year-old takes on the older sprinters today but remains on an upward curve and goes very well on soft ground – 3-7 5 places with soft in the going description. Solid win contender, if he finds a bit more improvement.
Air Raid is another who’s at his best on testing ground. The 4-year-old made it 4-5 on soft ground when winning the Scottish Stewards’ Cup at Hamilton back in July. Never showed on good to firm in the Stewards Cup at Goodwood on his latest start. A 70-day absence shouldn’t be a problem as he’s won off a longer break in the past. Trainer Jed O’Keeffe won this race in 2015 but the trainer’s recent form is worry 54 runners and 56-days since his last winner. It would be a great race for the trainer to come off the cold list. Stable form means I’m cautious on the staking front.
Bernardo O’Reilly is another who goes well on rain softened ground. The 5-year-old seemed to put in a career best when winning at Ffos Las on his last start. Returns from a 50-day lay off but has won fresh in the past. Up 4lb for his last success shouldn’t be too much of a problem but his hold up running style means he’s a hostage to fortune on a track like York.
There are three good handicaps on Chepstow’s valuable jumps cards and I have a selection in one of them.
3:20 – Captain Chaos doesn’t have the best of records first time up and was well beaten in this race 12 months ago. In his favour this time around is soft ground. All six of his career wins have come on soft and if he ready to go fitness wise is on a workable mark.
There’s more big race action tomorrow with the Munster National at Limerick and the Irish Cesarewitch at the Curragh.
Cheers
John