Category: Victor Value

Hi all,

A rare midweek selection from Ludlow. The course has a precautionary morning inspection to pass but if it does there’s a couple of decent looking handicap chases and one of them provides today’s selection.

Ludlow

2:35 – Ten runners are set to go to post for this Class 3 handicap chase. Wicked Willy looked a useful handicap chaser in the making in early 2018 but seemed to lose his confidence in the spring of that year. Mostly went hurdling last season and managed to win a valuable 2m 5f handicap hurdle at Kempton in March. The 8-year-old has been below his best on two starts this season but wasn’t totally disgraced when 8^th of 13 in the valuable Badger Ales Trophy. Still a few questions to answer over fences but if he can bounce back to form there’s no doubt, he’s on a handy mark. Al his career wins have come going right-handed.  Each way claims in an open race.

0.5pts each way – Wicked Willy – 14/1 @ Bet365 or 12/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

Cheers

John

Hi all,

Unlike last week where there didn’t seem to be much in the way ante post value. There looks to be more this week.

There’s a couple of competitive looking cards at Ascot where the feature race is the Grade 3 Betfair Exchange Trophy a handicap hurdle over 1m 7 ½ f.

There’s also a good supporting card of races including the Grade 1 Long Walk Hurdle, the listed Silver Cup Handicap Chase and the Class 2 Plymouth Gin Handicap Chase.

Up in the north west Haydock stages a seven-race card with the feature race being the Class 2 Tommy Whittle Handicap Chase over 3m 1 ½ f.

The going at Ascot at the time of writing this (17/12) is soft and with plenty of rain being forecast before post time it seems unlikely that the going will dry out much before racing on Friday.

The going is heavy at Haydock and although less rain is forecast for the Lancashire venue it’s hard to see the track being much better than heavy come start of racing on Saturday.

Saturday December 21^st

For now, I have left the Betfair Exchange Trophy Handicap Hurdle but there will be selections for that race on Friday evening. Let’s begin at Haydock.

Haydock

2:40 – Betway Tommy Whittle Handicap Chase (Class 2) – 3m 1 ½ f

The ante post market leader is the Venetia William trained Yalltari who will be having his first start since finishing third in the Reynoldstown Novices Chase at Ascot back in February. He also holds an entry in the Silver Cup at Ascot.

Vintage Clouds is better than he’s been able to show on his two starts this season. Last time didn’t seem to enjoy the Aintree national fences when pulling up in the Becher Chase. He’s better judged on his 2^nd of 24 in the Ultima Handicap Chase at the Cheltenham Festival. The return to Haydock is in his favour 2 wins from 9 runs at the course and has only been out the first three once.  

The Hollow Ginge is less exposed over fences than Vintage Clouds, just the three starts winning at Worcester in September on his debut before running Plan Of Attack to a head at Aintree a month later. Not so good here when 3^rd of 5 in Graduation Chase but that was on good to soft and he looks a better horse in the mud – 2 wins from 5 runs on heavy. He won a 2m 7 soft ground handicap hurdle at this meeting 12 months ago and has likely been targeted at the race.

1pt win – Vintage Clouds – 9/1 @ William Hill

1pt win – The Hollow Ginge – 8/1 @ William Hill

Ascot

1:50 – Plymouth Gin Handicap Chase (Class 2) – 2m 3f

Mr Medic a winner of this race in 2017 and 2 wins from 5 runs at Ascot. He returned to action when finishing 4^th of 7 here 29-days ago. Trainer Robert Walford has his horses in better from now than was the case when Mr Medic ran last time and it also looks like the gelding probably needed the run last time.  Granted his best form has come on a sounder surface than he’s likely to get on Saturday but at 16/1 he looks overpriced to me.

1pt each way – Mr Medic – 16/1 @ BetVictor (paying 3 places ¼ odds)

3:00 – Dave Dawes Silver Cup Handicap Chase (Listed Race) – 3m

Belami Des Pictons not surprisingly heads the ante post market for this race. The 8-year-old’s 4^th of 17 in the BetVictor Gold Cup was an eye-catching one and the handicapper has dropped him 1lb since Cheltenham.  It’s no secret these Saturday handicap chases are race trainer Venetia Williams likes to target. He looks a solid favourite off his current mark of 145. Was given an entry in the King George VI which suggests he’s highly regarded.   The early 6/1 has gone but he still rates a shade of value at around 4/1.

Kildisart is another strong contender. The Ben Pauling trained gelding won a graduation chase at this meeting 12 months ago, over 2m 5f. The 7-year-old went on to win handicap chases at Cheltenham and at the Aintree Grand National Festival, off 7lb lower. A little disappointing when a well beaten 3^rd of 4 behind Lostintranslation at Carlisle on his seasonal return although the trainer has said in the past the horse is hard to get fit, so he probably needed the run. Might be better over further but the soft ground will bring his stamina in to play, his Aintree win came over 3m 1f, and he goes well around here. Of more concern than the drop in distance would be the trainer’s form this autumn.

1pt win – Belami Des Pictons @ William Hill & Ladbrokes

1pt win – Kildisart – 7/1 @Ladbrokes

It’s worth noting that should there be any non-runners they will be replaced by suitable alternatives. And other races could be added in the Saturday racing email.

Cheers

John

Hi all,

After the last few weekend’s of profit this weekend has been disappointing. Let’s hope we can end with a winner and minimise losses.

Navan

12:30 – Top Moon improved for the step up to 2m 4f when winning at Cork 28-days ago. Handicapper has raised the 5-year-old 7lb for that success, but he’s handicap hurdler going the right way and remains on the right side of the handicap. This more galloping track should suit as he shapes like he will appreciate further than 2m 4f.  Looks the one to beat,

1pt win – Top Moon – 10/3 @bet365 or 3/1 – Gen

Cheers

John

Hi all,

Our first disappointing day for a while on Friday. Let’s hope it’s not trend for the weekend.  I can now see why I couldn’t find much in the way of ante post value earlier this week. Plenty of racing today but I can’t find many solid betting opportunities at the right prices.

Cheltenham

1:20 – Cheltenham Club Handicap Chase (Class 2) – 2m ½ f

It might be worth chancing the 12-year-old Croco Bay here. The veteran returned 227-day layoff to win the Grand Annual Chase over C&D the Festival in March, off 4lb lower before going on to finish 3rd of 12 at the Punchestown Festival. Returns from a 226-day break and can go well.

1pt win – Croco Bay -13/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

1:55 – Caspian Caviar Gold Cup Handicap Chase (Grade 3) – 2m 4 ½ f

The big betting race of the weekend which has attracted a field of 14 runners.

Cepage was runner-up to Frodon in the race 12 months ago.  The 7-year-old returned to action with a good effort when runner-up to Riders On the Storm at Aintree 35-days ago. He will be contender even though he will be 12lb higher than 12 months ago.

Seven of the last ten winners of the race contested last month’s BetVictor Gold Cup. The second Brelan D’As and third Warthog both take their chances today and slight preference is for the former who was only beaten a neck by winner Happy Diva.

Brelan D’As trainer Paul Nicholls also saddles Secret Investor, a Grade 2 novice chase winner last season. Secret Investor should be spot on fitness wise after finishing runner-up in a Grade 2 at Down Royal 43-days ago Looks capable of better in handicap company for the first time. Slight negative for his chance would be his lack of Cheltenham form no horse has won this in the last ten years who hasn’t had a run at the track.

Verdict: It’s Brelan D’As and Cepage for me albeit not the most imaginative of selections.

1pt win – Brelan D’As -6/1 @ Coral & Labrokes

1pt win – Cepage – 13/2 @ Bet365 & William Hill

3:05 – Unibet International Hurdle (Grade 2) -2m 1f

Monsieur Lecoq has each way claims in this. The 5-year-old takes a bit of a step up in class today but he’s an improving handicap hurdler. A winner of the Welsh Champion Hurdle at Ffos Las on his seasonal return he bettered that form when a 3^rd of 14 here in last months Greatwood Hurdle. Has 10lb to find with top weight on official ratings but goes well at the track is suited by soft ground.

0.5pts each way – Monsieur Lecoq – 14/1 @ Coral & Paddy Power

3:40 – Park Mares’ Handicap Hurdle (Class 2) – 2m 4 ½ f

This mares handicap hurdle looks a competitive race to close the meeting with sixteen set to head to post.

Dame De Compagnie should be all the better for her 5th placed effort in the Greatwood Hurdle at the last meeting. The return to today’s distance should suit the 6-year-old who races off the same mark as last time.

Mega Yeats is 2 wins from 4 runs over hurdles. The 5-year-old should be all the better for her recent seasonal reappearance at Haydock last month. Now 3lb lower and capable of better. Two others with each way claims are: 

Lust For Glory made an encouraging seasonal return when an eyecatching 2nd of 9 at Ascot 34-days ago. Step up to 2m 4½ f for the first time so stamina to prove but looks interesting on her handicap hurdle debut.

Verdict: It’s hard to look beyond the favourite Dame De Compagnie but from a price perspective both his stablemate Lust For Glory and northern raider Mega Yeats appeal.

1pt win – Lust For Glory – 8/1 @ William Hill

1pt win – Mega Yeats – 11/1 @ Paddy Power

You can tell what sort of day it is as my final selection runs this evening at Wolverhampton.

Wolverhampton

6:50 – A 6f class 2 handicap. Merhoob won a Class 2 C&D handicap in February off 3lb lower but has bettered that run on couple of occasions off higher than today’s mark of 97, including over C&D in March. The 7-year-old’s form after a Chester win in May hasn’t been great but he shaped like he could be about to hit form when 3^rd of 9 at Chelmsford over 7f 16-days ago. Drop back to 6f suits and he ticks the all-important boxes marked course, distance and class.

1pt win – Merhoob -9/1 @ Paddy Power or 8/1 – Gen

Cheers

John

Hi all,

Cheltenham

2:30 – Oneforttheroadtom was 4th of 15 here in October and is 2lb lower here. The first-time blinkers replace cheekpieces and the 6-year-old races of a nice weight here. Good to soft will be fine but may not want it to ease further.

1pt win – Oneforttheroadtom – 4/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

3:05 – A cross country race is not normally a race I would look at.

Yanworth made a winning start to Country Sphere. The former high-class hurdler didn’t look the most likely prospect for racing over the banks, but he could hardly be any more impressive. He will take plenty of beating on soft ground.

Chic Name could give him most to do. The 7-year-old was a solid 3rd of 10 over C&D last month. A real stayer, the trainer has his horses in winning form, and Chic Name has solid each way claims if the going doesn’t soften too much before post time.

0.5pts each way – Chic Name – 11/1 @ Coral (paying 4 places ¼ odds)

3:40 – Debestyman a soft ground winner at Plumpton back in January. The 6-year-old ran much better than his seasonal reappearance when 6th of 18 at Newbury 14-days ago. Remains unexposed over 3m and in handicaps.  Has been dropped 1lb since Newbury and could surprise at big odds.

0.5pts each way – Debestyman – 16/1 @ Coral (paying 3 places ¼ odds)

Cheers

John

Hi all,

Slightly disappointing but I haven’t found any ante post value for the weekend’s big races. That’s how it goes. There are going to be week’s when there aren’t any.

I will now wait until Friday and day one of Cheltenham’s December Meeting.

Cheers

John

Hi all,

Cheltenham’s December Meeting begins on Friday. There’s plenty of high-class racing on offer over the two days. There’s also good Doncaster card weather permitting that could provide punters with some decent betting opportunities.

Before we enjoy all those potential goodies lets have a look back at last weeks five eyecatchers.

Eyecatchers – W/e December 8^th

Saturday December 6th

Aintree

In Monday’s Daily Punt I mentioned a few horses from Saturday’s Becher Chase that could be worth adding to your trackers. Here are two of them:

Kimberlite County like the winner racing in the first time cheekpieces ran a cracker to finish second. I wasn’t sure about him enjoying the National fences, but he handled them fine. This was a nice return to action by the 7-year-old who will surely be aimed at the big one in April after this run.

Le Breuil ran better than his final position of 7th suggests. This was the 7-year-old’s first sight of the National fences and he seemed to enjoy it. He was still bang there three out before fading out of contention.  Trainer Ben Pauling is struggling for winners so in the circumstances this was a good run. Too early to dismiss his National credentials.

There were also two impressive winners on the Aintree card:

Sammy Bill, trained Oliver Sherwood,looked a handicap chaser very much on the upgrade when winning the 2m 4f handicap chase. The handicapper has raised the 6-year-old 11lb for the win which makes life tougher but he’s going the right way.

The other winner that took the eye was Notre Pari in winning the 2m 4f handicap hurdle. The 5-year-old improved for the step-up distance on his handicap debut. He finished his race off powerfully to land his first win over the smaller obstacles. He’s risen 8lb for this win but there should be more to come from him this winter.

Didero Vallis – Venetia Williams

The 6-year-old raced like he needed the run on his seasonal reappearance at Ascot. He ran much better here when 5^th of 15 in the Grand Sefton Chase.

The handicapper has dropped him 2lb for this effort and he’s now just 2lb higher than for his last win at Haydock 12 months ago.

Suited by soft ground I’m sure he can be placed to winning advantage sooner rather than later.

Sandown

Fortunate George – Emma Lavelle

Fortunate George had been well backed(3/1 Fav) for his seasonal return at Fontwell but ran poorly and was eventually pulled up. This was a much better effort from the 9-year-old in finishing 3^rd of 11 in the Pertemps Series Qualifier, albeit, he finished a well beaten third.

He’s now 9lb lower than his last win at Wincanton in February 2018 and is a well handicapped horse when his sights are lowered back into Class 3 company.

Navan

Sire De Berlais – Gordon Elliott

The 7-year-old put in a career best when winning the Pertemps Series Final at the Cheltenham Festival in March. Not as good at Aintree on his final appearance of last season. Made a solid return to action when 4^th of 16 behind The Jam Man in the valuable 3m ½ f. Held up in the rear he was never really put into the race but made some headway coming to the last where he was slightly hampered by the fall of Coko Beach.

He wouldn’t have beaten the three that fell in front of him but would have been closer but for events at the last. If you look at the race replay his jockey didn’t subject him to hard race. There will be other days and given he goes well at Cheltenham he could be targeted at another Pertemps in the spring.

Glenloe – Gordon Elliott

Glenloe is one of the horses who I just think has a good handicap pot in him. The 8-year-old is relatively lightly raced with 1 win from 14 runs. His peak performances over hurdles two seasons ago came over 3m when 2^nd of 23 in the Pertemps Series Final at the Cheltenham Festival and a close-up 5th of 25 at the Punchestown Festival. Just the two starts over fences last season. He started this season when 5^th to Faugheen in a beginners’ chase at Punchestown.

Looked interesting on his handicap chase debut. Held up at the back of the field he never really got competitive but was noted running on nicely into third at the finish.

His best hurdling from came over 3m and he’s yet race over that distance over fences. I can’t wait to see connections try him over that distance. There’s a big handicap chase in the son of Kayf Tara when he goes over 3m.

Sunday December 8^th

Kelso

Big River – Lucinda Russell

Big River was the class act of the Scottish Borders National. Racing off 3lb lower than when 4th of 24 in the Ultima Handicap at the Cheltenham Festival. He confirmed he was a dour stayer when a running 5th 0f 23 in the Scottish Grand National on his final start of last season. Was never travelling and was eventually pulled up on is return to action last month.

Can race lazily and get behind in his races but the first time cheekpieces seemed to be working the trick here as he was travelling nicely in the rear when bought down at the 14^th.

Provided his confidence isn’t dented by this mishap and the cheekpieces continue to work he 9-year-old remains more than capable of winning a decent handicap off his present mark. His liking for soft ground and extreme distance would making him interesting for races like the Eider Chase later in the season.

My latest ante post article will be posted by this time tomorrow.

Cheers

John

Hi all,

A good weekend for us with another good profit banked.  Very pleased with Top Notch’s win in yesterday’s Peterborough Chase which made it two from three for the ante post angle.

Another ante post angle will be with you by Wednesday and my latest eyecatcher will be posted by tomorrow.

It looks like it will be a quiet one on the betting front until Friday and the start of Cheltenham’s two-day November Meeting.

Cheers

John

Hi all,

Walk In The Mill’s win the Becher Chase at Aintree enabled another winning day for the service. Can we keep up the winning going for the final day of the weekend?

There’s Grade 1 action at Punchestown with the John Durkan Chase the highlight of a seven-race card.

This side of the Irish Sea the feature race on the Huntingdon card is the Grade 2 Peterborough Chase. I mentioned in my ante post email I thought the race might cut up and so it has with just six set to go to post. My ante post selection Top Notch (advised 4/1) is among the six and is now a best priced 2/1. At Kelso it’s the 4m Scottish Borders National that’s the most competitive looking race of a seven-race card at the Scottish track.

Punchestown

Min won last year’s John Durkan Chase on his seasonal return and is odds on to do so again in 2019. He faces 8 rivals on this occasion and the one who could give him most do is stablemate Real Steel. The 6-year-old is a chaser on the upgrade and put in a career best in winning a Grade 2 at Down Royal on his reappearance last month. 

There are two interesting handicaps on the Punchestown card which look more interesting to me.

1:20 – Artic Pearl won this handicap hurdle 12 months ago off 7lb lower. Just the two runs over fences since and a return to hurdles looks a positive move for the 8-year-old. The first time cheekpieces have been applied and Davy Russell takes the ride which are other positives for a big run today.

1pt win – Artic Pearl – 11/2 @ William Hill

2:50 – A 3m 1 ½ f handicap chase. Two take my eye here: Roxboro Road & Deputy’s Pass. The first named was close-up when slipping on the bend here 21-days ago. If none the worse for that mishap looks set for a big run here. Deputy’s Pass was still in contention in the same race when unseating his rider three out and is another contender.

1pt win – Roxboro Road – 5/1 @ William Hill & Paddy Power

Kelso

1:15 – The Scottish Borders National over a 4m ½ f will take plenty of getting on the anticipated soft ground. Fifteen are set to go to post and as you would expect you can give most of the field some sort of chance.

Big River is the class act of the race and he races off 3lb lower than when 4^th of 24 in the Ultima Handicap at the Cheltenham Festival. He confirmed he was a dour stayer when a running 5^th 0f 23 in the Scottish Grand National on his final start of last season. Never travelling and was eventually pulled up on is return to action last month. Can race lazily and get behind in his races which he can’t afford to do here. Connections opt for the first time cheekpieces and if the headgear does the trick the 9-year-old is more than capable of winning this off his present mark.

Total Assets was 4^th in this race 12 months ago. The 11-year-old tends to reserve her best for Kelso and her record at the course is 4 wins from 12 runs +27 7 placed.  Now 4lb lower than last year the mare. Ran well enough when 3^rd of 10 over 4m at Hexham 18-days ago to think she comes into today’s race in decent form. This will be the mares fourth start of the campaign and her record on her 4^th + start of the season is 7 wins from 20 runs 35% +47.5 11 placed 55% compared to 0 wins from 29 runs -29 7 placed 24%.  Vulnerable in this class of race but looks to be hitting peak form and given her course record looks decent enough each-way value.

0.5pts each way – Total Assets – 16/1 @ Ladbrokes (paying 4 places 1/5 odds)

2:15 – Eight runners are set to go post for this Class Veterans chase handicap over 2m 6 ½ f. Claud And Goldie only began his career under rules in September 2018, but he made up for lost time putting in steadily improving performances last season. A winner here over furlong further in March he improved further when a 2 ½ length, 3^rd of 8 behind Some Chaos here on his next start and ended last season with another third placed effort at Ayr. Fitness must be taken on trust and he won’t get his own way out in front but if he’s ready to roll looks set for a big run.

1pt win – Claud And Goldie – 6/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

Cheers

John

Hi all,

I think Saturday’s racing is the best of the winter from both a racing and betting perspective.

It’s Tingle Creek Chase Day at Sandown and it looks a high-class renewal of the of this Grade 1 chase. There’s also a good supporting card of races on the Sandown card. Aintree see’s the return to action of the Grand National fences with the Becher and Grand Sefton Chases the highlight of an eight-race card.  Add in competitive cards at Chepstow, Navan and Wetherby and you can see why I’m excited about today’s action.

Let’s begin this preview at Sandown.

Sandown

2:25 – Jumeirah Hotels And Resorts December Handicap Hurdle (Listed Race) (Class 1) – 2m

Protektorat returned from a summer break and a wind-op to put in a solid effort when 2^nd of 11 in a maiden hurdle over C&D 27-days ago. The 4-year-old is lightly raced, open to more progress and makes his handicap debut on ground that suits.

Paul Nicholls saddles Imperial Cup winner Malaya and Ashutor. The former is a C&D winner but latter appeals at the prices. Ashutor is having his second start since a wind-op and returned to action with a solid enough effort when runner-up at Huntingdon 14-days ago. His mark looks no better than fair on his form so far, but he remains capable of better and a useful 7lb claimer has been booked for the ride.

Verdict: I doubt we have seen the best of Ashutor but with ground going heavy I have slight preference for Protektorat who handled it well enough last time.

1pt win – Protektorat – 4/1 – Gen

3:00 – Betfair Tingle Creek Chase (Grade 1) (Class 1) – 2m.

The best 2m chase outside the Cheltenham Festival and this year’s race has attracted high class field of eight runners. Given I tipped up Defi De Seuil each way for the Champion Chase I will naturally be hoping for a big run from the 6-year-old who looks set to get the fast pace that suits. Not sure he should be as short as 13/8 so there could be some value in taking him on.

Politologue won the race in 2015, he might be better over further, but the soft ground will be in his favour. He ran Defi De Seuil to 1 ¼ lengths at Cheltenham last month and meets the favourite on 3lb better terms here. You can see why his connections think he has a good chance of reversing form.

The admirable Un De Sceaux won this in 2016 and gave Altior a fright in last years race. He might be a 11-year-old but his win over Min at the Punchestown Festival in April was arguably as good a performance in his career.

Janika & Sceau Royal are in the same ownership. Retained jockey Daryl Jacob has opted for the latter and the drying ground will be in the 7-year-old’s favour. Janika deserves to take his chance after an impressive win the Haldon Gold Cup at Exeter 32-days ago.  He will be better suited if the ground was to ease again before post time. If it does, he doesn’t have much to find with better fancied rivals and is rated 3lb higher than Defi De Seuil by the official handicapper.

You couldn’t totally dismiss the claims of the strong travelling Waiting Patiently who will be suited by the anticipated strong pace.

Verdict: A race to enjoy for the sport itself. For anyone taking on the favourite then Janika each way could be the way to go.

0.5pts each way – Janika – 9/1

3:35 – Betfair London National Handicap Chase (Class 2) – 3m 5f

The final declarations are in and 14 have declared to go for this marathon handicap chase. I have already tipped up Classic Ben for this race

Step Back has come in for good support in the past couple of days and you can see why. He won the Bet365 Gold Cup over C&D in 2018 and was third in this year’s renewal.

Royal Vacation bounced back to his best when 3^rd of 13 in the Badger Ales Trophy at Wincanton 29-days ago. He’s got a staying handicap chase in him off his present mark.

Vinnie Lewis is another who looks on a competitive mark. The 8-year-old is a through stayer and will be fitter for his seasonal reappearance in the Durham National. Aidan Coleman is a good jockey booking for the gelding who showed he handled the track, when runner-up here in March over 3m.

Verdict: I’m happy with Classic Ben but Vinnie Lewis appeals each way.

0.5pts each way – Vinnie Lewis – 11/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes (paying 4 places 1/5 odds)

Aintree

1:30 – Randox Health Becher Handicap Chase (Grade 3) – 3m 2f

Eighteen go to post for the first race over the Grand National fences of the season. Previous experience of the fences is always a positive. That’s why last years winner and runner-up Walk In The Mill & Vieux Lion Rouge have to be high on the shortlist.

Besides winning this race 12 months ago, Walk In The Mill was 4^th in last years Grand National so we know these unique fences bring out the best in the 9-year-old. He can race off just 4lb higher than last year and the first time cheekpieces have been enlisted today.  Trainer is struggling for winner which is a negative as would be drying ground but apart from that he got a great chance of back to back wins.

Vieux Lion Rouge won this in 2016 in addition to last years runner-up effort off 1lb higher.  Showed his well being when winning a veterans’ chase at Chepstow on his seasonal reappearance. Slight concern that he might be best fresh, but he’s record around here means he can’t be left out calculations.

Another who goes well around here is As De Mee.  The 9-year-old won the Grand Sefton here in 2019. The forecast good to soft going will suit him, won the Grand Sefton on good to soft. Just the two starts since falling in this race in 2017. If Bryony Frost can get him into a nice rhythm, he’s got appealing each way claims.

Verdict:  If As De Mee gets in a good jumping rhythm he won’t be far away. It’s hard to split Walk In The Mill and Vieux Lion Rouge.

1pt win – Walk In The Mill – 9/1 @ Bet365 & William Hill

0.5pts each way – As De Mee – 14/1 @ Paddy Power (paying 5 places 1/5 odds)

3:15 – Virgin Bet Grand Sefton Handicap Chase (Class 2) – 2m 5f

The number of runners has held up nicely with 14 set to go to post for the second race over the Grand National fences.

The early 14/1 available about Gold Present has long gone but the top weight’s claims are obvious on good or good to soft ground.

Ultragold is a standing dish around here. He was runner-up in this race in 2017 and has also won the Topham Chase over C&D in 2017 & 2018. The 11-year-old is just 1lb higher than for the last of his wins.

Paul Nicholls won last year’s race with Warrior’s Tale and his record since 2013 is 3 winners from 9 runners 33% +21.5 5 placed 56%.  He saddles recent Fakenham winner Touch Kick who must be high on the shortlist for the trainer record alone.

French raider It’s Jennifer adds spice to the race but it’s hard to know how the mares form compares with her rivals, but she could be well handicapped off a mark of 130.

Killaro Bay caught the eye here last time. He might need further to be at his best but he’s a sound jumper which will hold him in good stead here. Trainer Henry Oliver is 3-11 27% with his runners in the past 14-days so the 10-year-old needs respecting.

Didero Vallis has to be respected on the best of last seasons form. He’s just 4lb higher than when winning at Haydock 12 months ago. Not as good on three subsequent starts but the 6-year-old wasn’t disgraced when 5^th of 22 in the Brown Advisory & Merriebelle Stable Plate at the Cheltenham Festival. Probably needs softer ground but there is a big handicap in him this season.

Wishful Dreaming will be suited by the drying ground and the 8-year-old isn’t without a chance if he takes to the fences off a mark of 127.

Verdict:  I think this the most competitive race of the day.Kilaro Bay’s a good jumper of a fence who can go well, if the drop back in trip doesn’t inconvenience. If the going remains no worse than good to soft then Gold Present is a big player. Paul Nicholls record in the race means Touch Kick has to be high on the shortlist. Didero Vallis will appreciate soft ground and is better than he was able to show on his reappearance at Ascot.

1pt win – Kilaro Bay – 8/1 – Gen

1pt win – Didero Vallis – 10/1 @ Bet365 & Ladbrokes

Cheers

John