Author: Admin

Hi all,

After two none runners on Wednesday I have a couple of selections in this afternoon’s Devon National at Exeter.

Exeter

3:50 – Virgin Bet Devon National Handicap Chase (Class 3) – 3m 6 ½ f

A field of 13 are set to meet the starter for this marathon contest.

Wayfinder was a 12-length runner-up to recent Sandown winner Dr Kananga at Chepstow last time. He finished clear of the rest that day and 8-year-old and ran like he can improve for the step up in trip.

Pemberley, a winner on his second start after an 11-month absence at Warwick in December has since finished runner-up in the Sussex National at Plumpton and was making steady progress from the rear when falling three out in the Surrey National. He’s got be respected for the inform Emma Lavelle yard.

Who’s In The Box was below his best on his first three starts this season. However, he was well backed before the North Yorkshire Grand National at Catterick (16/5 favourite). The market anticipated a much better run and they got it as  the 8-year-old finished a 4 ¾ length 3rd of 8 to. The winner of last season’s Lincolnshire National, off 3lb lower, is on a competitive mark and softer ground will suit him.

Samuel Jackson won this race 12 months ago and can race off the same mark today. A good 3^rd of 8 at Bangor on his seasonal return before suffering an overreach here on his next start. In better form when a 6 ½ length 4^th of 15 to The Galloping Bear in the Surrey National Last time. This has likely been the 10-year-old target all season.

Classic Bear and The Two Amigos haven’t enjoyed victory for a long time but they are weighted to be contenders. Classic Ben has gone three years since tasting success. The 9-year-old was in the lead when falling three out here last month. It was too far from the finish to say that he would have won but he was still going well at the time. Slight question mark over stamina but respected.

The Two Amigos has also gone over three years since his last win. However, he has run plenty of good races in the meantime, including when 3-length 2^nd of 18 in last seasons Welsh Grand National. Now 8lb lower.  A well beaten 2^nd of 7 at Haydock last time but he’s down in class here and the previous C&D winner’s stamina is guaranteed. Too well treated to ignore despite his yards form.

Verdict:  Of the less exposed horses Pemberley has claims. Last year’s winner Samuel Jackson is respected in his bid for back-to-back wins in the race. Who’s In The Box stays well, is on a competitive mark and has each way claims. Hard to split Classic Ben & The Two Amigos but the latter’s guaranteed stamina just edges it for me.

1pt win – The Two Amigos – 10/1 @ Bet365 or 8/1- Gen

0.5pts each way – Who’s In The Box – 14/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes (both paying 4 places 1/5 odds)

Cheers

John

We have one eyecatcher running on Sunday.

Market Rasen3:15 – Dino Velvet – 7/1 – Gen –  Ran with promise at Kempton two starts back but ran really poorly back over C&D 36 days ago. Just a 1lb higher than when winning at Ayr last April. Worth another go to redeem himself here.
CheersJohn

WAnother couple of winners for the eyecatcher at Sandown on Friday on top of Captain Redbeard’s surprise win at Kelso on Thursday. 

If last week was supposed to be Super Saturday at Newbury. It must be super Ascot this Saturday as the racecourse hosts a bumper card of nine races including the Betfair Hurdle & Demnan Chase that have been rescheduled from last week’s cancelled Newbury fixture. Add in good cards at Haydock and Wincanton and it’s a fest of racing for punters to enjoy. I will begin this preview at Ascot. 

Saturday 16^th February

Ascot

1:00 – A Class 2 handicap over 2m 3 ½ f. 

Cloudy Glen, looks sure to be popular looking for the hat trick after wins Haydock & Chepstow. 

Tight Call, was runner-up at Wincanton last month. This is a better race and he’s up 5lb but he looks on a winnable mark. The drier the ground the better for this 5-year-old.

Air Horse One, winner of this race in 2016 and runner-up in similar handicap hurdle in January 2017, off 7lb higher is temptingly handicapped on his back form and surely has each way claims at a track he goes well at. He comes into the race on the back off a second placed effort at Taunton 28-days ago. 

Darling Maltaix, won here over 2f further back in December on soft. The 6-year-old wasn’t disgraced when finishing 5^th of 14 in the Lanzarote Hurdle at Kempton last month. Another with each way claims. 

Sussex Ranger, was my fancy for the Betfair Hurdle. Interesting to see trainer Gary Moore has re-routed the 5-year-old to this race. 

Umndeni, trained by Philip Hobbs, make his handicap debut after a comfortable Fontwell maiden hurdle 20-days ago. He’s another who needs respecting with Richard Johnson in the saddle again. 

Master Blueyes, trained by the very much inform Alan King 3 winners from 7 runners 43% in the past 14-days, returns from a 701-day absence. He was formerly a decent hurdler and his form figures over hurdles on a right-handed track are 2211. Trainer is 0 winners from 52 runners 13 placed 25% with his NH handicappers returning from a 365+day layoff. 

Verdict: Seven of the 11 declared runners underlines how competitive a puzzle this race. I will just go for Air Horse One and Dancing Maltaix. 

Air Horse One – 7/1 @ William Hill

Dancing Maltaix – 8/1 @ William Hill & Bet365

2:10 – Keltbray Swinley Chase (A Limited Handicap) (Listed Race) – 3m

Just eight go to post for the valuable handicap. 

Reikers Island seems a better horse going right handed and he was impressive when winning at Wincanton two starts back before a brave effort when 4^th of 10 in the Mandarin Handicap Chase at Newbury. The drop back to 3m should suit as will the drying ground. Big player here. 

Coneygree might be a 12-year-old but the former Gold Cup winner but up a bold show when 3^rd of 14 in a valuable Cheltenham handicap chase back in November. Ran poorly in the King George VI on his next start but a reproduction of his Cheltenham run makes him a big contender. He’s surely to big at the 7/1 available with William Hill. 

Regal Encore, always needs respecting at Ascot as he’s 2 wins from 5 runs over C&D and won this race last year off 2lb lower. This year’s race looks tougher but he won’t be far away if in the same form as 12 months ago. 

Coneygree – 13/2 @ William Hill

Regal Encore – 8/1 @ Coral

3:20 – Betfair Hurdle (Handicap) (Grade 3) – 1m 7 ½ f 

As the 2009 renewal was cancelled due to the weather. I am looking at some of the key trends for the last nine running’s of the race – 9 winners from 184 runners 35 placed. Here are some of the headline stats both positive and negative:

Age: 5-& 6-year olds: 9 winners from 112 runners 27 placed

Last Time Out Placing: 1st 2nd or 3rd: 9 winners from 95 runners 26 placed

Class Move: Same, Up 1 & Up 2: – 0 winners from 89 runners 8 placed

For a big field handicap favourites have a good record in the race 4 winners from 11 runners 36% +11.75 7 placed 64% 

So, you need to have a strong case to back horses older than six or that finished outside the first three on their last start.

Not surprisingly two novices head the ante-post betting: Al Dancer and Getaway Trump.  Thelatter may turn out to need further than the minimum trip to be at his best. But I think the Paul Nicholls trained 6-year-old could well go off favourite and if he does it’s worth noting the form figures of favourites in the race with the following traits:

Age: 5yo or 6yo

Handicap Hurdle Debutant

Last Time Out Finishing Position: 1^st or 2^nd 

4 winners from 5 runners 80% +17.75 5 placed 100%. (form figures of 11411)

Of the rest the Nick Gifford trained, Didtheyleaveyououtoo will appreciate the drier ground he’s 2 wins from 2 runs on good ground and also 2 from 2 here at Ascot.  Given the form of the Alan King horses his runner Lisp has to come into the reckoning. The 4-year-old was runner-up in a valuable C&D handicap before Christmas. He’s up 5lb for that effort but he’s progressive and won’t be far away. 

Verdict: The claims of Al Dancer & Getaway Trump are obvious and I just prefer the latter and I can also see Lisp running well for Alan King. 

Getaway Trump – 3/1 @ Ladbrokes & Bet365

Lisp – 8/1 @ Ladbrokes & Coral

Haydock 

1:25 – Trainer Ruth Jefferson is 2 wins from 3 runners 67% +19.00 with her runners here since she took over the licence from her late father. I am happy to take a chance with her runner Mega Yeats. The mare was runner-up in a listed Cheltenham bumper back in November and made a winning start to her hurdle debut at Wetherby back in December.

2:25 – A competitive looking novices handicap chase. But C&D winner Scorpion Sid is 1 from 2 since going over fences. That win came on soft ground but he’s an improving novice chaser. 

2:55 – I am not a big fan of these Pertemps Series qualifiers from a betting perspective. Emma Lavelle’s hurdlers at the track always need respecting, as she’s 5 winners from 12 runners 42% +26 in such races in the past 5-years. The trainer saddles Down The Highway her only runner here today. You couldn’t rule out a big run from Lamanver Odyssey. The mare was first past the post here in March last year of today’s mark, when with former trainer Harry Fry. She’s had two runs for new trainer Jack Barber and she didn’t shape to badly when 5^th of 12 at Hereford 63-days ago. Stamina for 3m+ to prove but is a contender if she stays.

At the time of writing the bookies have yet to price up the above three races!

3:35 – William Hill Grand National Trial Handicap Chase (Grade 3) – 3m 4 ½ f

When I looked at this race for my Monday Daily Punt column the going was heavy and now it’s good to soft due to the recent sunny and mild weather. The whole complexion of the race has changed in a few days.  

Impulsive Star, relished the good ground when landing the Classic Handicap Chase at Warwick last month. He’s up 6lb here but he looks on the upgrade over fences. Trainer form is a slight concern but the 9-year-old looks capable of going well again. 

Bishop’s Road’s, form figures at Haydock are 132, including a win over C&D. He’s got an 8lb pull for a 2 ¾ defeat by Red Infantry here back in November. Capable of bold run and is clearly well-handicapped on his best form.

Robinsfirth, was a recent eyecatcher when runner-up to Wakanda here in the Peter Marsh Handicap Chase 28-days ago and he’s a big contender here. Trainer Colin Tizzard has gone 19 days and 18 runners since his last win which is a concern. A big positive is the booking of jockey Sean Bowen who rides the course really well having had 9 winners from 27 rides 33% +24 14 placed 52% including, 5 winners from 11 rides 45% +19 6 placed 55% over fences. Despite trainer form has to be on the shortlist.

Two Amigos, is one of my favourite staying handicap chasers. The 7-year-old is 1211 over fences and last time out made all to win Plumpton’s Sussex National. He’s a good jumper who remains on the upgrade but has an 8lb weight rise to overcome. Although his win at Plumpton came on good to soft his trainer suggested after the race that he would prefer softer ground. Each way claims if the going has dried out too much. 

Ah Littleluck, shouldn’t be underestimated for Irish trainer Thomas Gibney. The 9-year-old got a deserved win when winning a Navan beginner’s chase 28-days ago. He looks a stayer and capable of more improvement for today’s longer trip. Shouldn’t have any issues with the going as it was similar when he won at Navan. 

Pobbles Bay, is an interesting contender for Evan Williams who shouldn’t be discounted despite his recent form. The 9-year-old remains unexposed over staying distances. Leighton Aspell has been booked for the ride and he has a good record when teaming up with the trainer – 11 winners from 32 runners 34% +39.24 A/E 1.86 17 placed 53% (+51.10) including, 7 winners from 18 runners 39% +41.38 A/E 3.08 11 placed 61% (+57.02) in handicaps. 

Verdict: I have to play Robinsfirth despite the trainer’s recent form. Two Amigos needs more improvement but could find it.  At each way prices Bishop’s Road, Ah Littleluck and Pobbles Bay are capable of running well. 

Robinsfirth – 8/1 @ William Hill & Ladbrokes

Pobbles Bay – 14/1 @ William Hill – each way – (paying 5 places 1/5 odds)

Ah Littleluck – 18/1 @ William Hill – each way – (paying 5 places 1/5 odds)

Wincanton

4:05 – Kerrow – Alan King doesn’t send many chasers to Wincanton and he’s a handy 3 winners from 10 runners 30% +10 with such runners in the past five years. His runners are going well since the recent break. Kerrow pulled up at Cheltenham on his last start but prior to that had gone well at Bangor, coming down at the last when just taking a slight lead. No problem with the 64-day absence as his seasonal reappearance at Bangor was off a 610-day break and he’s just 4lb higher than at Bangor.  Capable of winning this!

At the time of writing the bookies have yet to price up this race.

Always check with an odds comparison service like Oddschecker to get the best prices available

All selections win only unless indicated as each way. 

Selections for Sunday will be sent by another e-mail. 

Good luck with your bets.

Thankfully the equine flu crisis is over for now. British racing which was suspended last Thursday returned on Wednesday. The main restriction in the short term is that horses that have been vaccinated over 6 months ago are not allowed to run until they have had a booster equine flu jab.  This means some horses who were due to run at the weekend like Verdana Blue and Top Notch can’t race for seven days.

How many horses are going to be affected by this decision isn’t clear as yet but there are bound to be a few defections from Saturday’s big races.

Last Saturday’s big races at Newbury: The Betfair Hurdle and Denman Chase have been switched to this Saturday’s Ascot’s fixture which now has a bumper nine races for punters to get stuck into.

Besides the rescheduled Newbury races. The feature races on the Ascot card are the 2m 5f Grade 1 Betfair Ascot Chase and the normally informative Grade 2 Reynoldstown Novices’ Chase over 3m.

At Haydock there’s a good-looking card with the highlight being the 3m 4 ½ f William Hill Grand National Trial Handicap Chase (Grade 3).

At Wincanton it’s Kingwell Hurdle Day, with the feature race being the Betway Kingwell Hurdle (Grade 2) over 1m 7 ½ f.

The weather is acting very spring like at present and is set to be mild and sunny from now till the weekend which means drying ground at all three tracks.

At time of writing this week’s notebook (Wednesday evening) the going at the above three tracks is:

Ascot – Good to soft, soft in places – Given the weather forecast it won’t be worse than good to soft.

Haydock – Good to soft, soft in places on the hurdle course and soft on the chase course – The heavy that was in the going description on Monday has long gone.  Again, taking the forecast into account. There’s likely to be more good than soft in the going description on the hurdles track and probably good will appear somewhere in the going description on the chase course.

Wincanton – Good to soft, soft in places – Like Ascot, it increasingly looks likely it will be no worse than good to soft come Saturday.

Plenty to look forward to then. It’s just a shame the ground is starting to dry out again after last weeks rain.

This Weeks Horses to Follow

Ireland kept the show on the road last weekend with meetings at Naas on Saturday and Punchestown on Sunday. The loss of British racing means a lack of horses to follow in this week’s notebook. At least with no racing this side of the Irish Sea I had a good chance to watch the Irish cards. Here are some of my thoughts on the weekend action across the Irish Sea.

Naas

The Martin Brassil trained City Island confirmed his well-being for a tilt at next month’s Cheltenham Festival. He only won like a 1/5 shot but at least his Festival preparation couldn’t have gone any better.

I tipped City Island ante-post at 12/1 for the Ballymore Hurdle in Monday’s Daily Punt column. Those odds have gone but I still think he’s a got a great each way chance for the race sponsors.

Band Of Outlaws, trained by Joseph O’Brien, a useful flat handicapper for the trainer. Continues to impress as a juvenile hurdler. He built on his Limerick win with a takin success on Saturday. His tactical flat speed came to the fore in a race that wasn’t run at a fast pace.  Still on a day when it wasn’t easy to make up ground from the rear. Band Of Outlaws managed to do it.

The winner will probably head for the Fred Winter Handicap Hurdle at Cheltenham. I just wish connections would let him take his chance in the Triumph Hurdle. 

The second home, Maze Runner & third Coko Beach could also head for the Fred Winter. I wouldn’t be surprised if the winner of that race can be found here.

Punchestown

The ground was drying out all the time at Punchestown on Sunday.

Sinoria, trained by Henry De Bromhead,built on the promise of her December Down Royal maiden win in the 2m Listed novice hurdle.

The drop back to 2m wasn’t a problem for the 6-year-old nor was the drying ground. She showed a good battling attitude at the finish and could well now be heading to the mares novice hurdle at Cheltenham.

The daughter of Oscar chances in that race shouldn’t be underestimated despite her stable having the ante-post favourite for the race.

Take Revenge who I tipped up last week. Was another novice hurdle winner for trainer Martin Brassil. He deserved his win and you can see why the trainer thinks the 7-year-old could make up into a nice prospect for fences next season.

Impact Factor, who had finished runner-up to Cilaos Emery on his previous start at Gowran Park. Remains a maiden after seven starts over fences. Once again, he had the misfortune to came up against a useful novice this time Riders Onthe Storm, trained by Tom Taaffe. You can’t fault Impact Factor’s attitude, as he stayed on well after the last. 

Given the 7-year-olds sole career win came on soft to heavy and his effort at Gowran Park came on going much softer than he faced on Sunday. It wasn’t a bad effort in the circumstances. He also looks worth trying over further on the evidence of this run.

The big betting race on Sunday was the BoyleSports Grand National Trial Handicap Chase.

Dounikos, who I had tipped for the Troytown earlier in the season bounced back from a couple of indifferent runs to win the race under an excellent ride from Davy Russell. The 8-year-old had pieces of novice chase form from last season that put him on a winnable mark but in all truth his run in the Thyestes was a poor one and I couldn’t really fancy the Gordon Elliott trained runner after that.

The race produced a 123 for Gigginstown and Elliott also trained the third home General Principle. 

The runner-up Wishmoor put in his best effort since joining Joseph O’Brien and will presumably head for the Irish Grand National on the back of this performance. Always up with the pace the 9-year-old battled on all the way to the line but was no match for the winner on this occasion.

General Principle last years last gasp winner of the Irish Grand National off 3lb lower bounced back to form like the winner. This was the 10-year-old best run of the season and he looks a lively contender for Aintree or Fairyhouse again.

Last year’s easy Thyestes Chase winner Monbeg Notorious shaped better here than he had done on his belated seasonal reappearance in this year’s Thyestes. He was still a well beaten 10^th of 16 but given the 8-year-olds best form has come on soft or heavy the ground at Punchestown would have been plenty quick for the son of Milan. He should ease in the weights after this and Just like Dounikos he will bounce back sometime.

Of the rest recent eyecatcher Solomn Grundy wasn’t disgraced in finishing 5^th. His jumping wasn’t the best at crucial points in the race but at least he plugged on all the way to the line. Again, not one to give up on just yet.

No horses for the tracker this week but hopefully the above notes will be of some use in the coming weeks.

Weekend Betting Preview – Part 1

Some nice winners for the notebook over the weekend to give us a profitable weekend. Let’s hope for more of the same again this week.

As I said in the Daily Punt on Monday the race, I am really looking forward to on Saturday is the William Hill Grand National Trial Handicap Chase at Haydock. I gave a positive mention to Ms Parfois (20/1), Beware The Bear (20/1), The Dutchman (16/1), Sharp Response (16/1) and Big River (25/1).

The more the ground dries out I can’t really have Ms Parfois whos has been well backed for this race in the past few days. Beware The Bear can’t run because he’s not got an updated flu vaccination. Like Ms Parfois, Big River would probably prefer softer ground. That leaves Sharp Response and the Dutchman.

At this stage I am not advising anything for the weekend. With all the uncertainty of who’s going to run and changing going it’s probably prudent to wait at this stage.

My selections for the weekend and any eyecatchers running will be with you on Friday when final declarations are known.

The next update will be on Thursday 13th when we will update our horses to follow and have our early bets for the weekend

Sunday 10^th February

Punchestown

2:50 – Trainer Martin Brassil had a good winner at Naas yesterday and I am expecting a big run from his Take Revenge in this 2m 4f maiden hurdle. The 7-year-old seemed to show improved form when finishing runner-up to Tornado Flyer over C&D 63-days ago. The selection is capable of further improvement and can go one better here.

Take Revenge – 11/2 @ Coral & Bet365

3:20 – A field of 18 are declared to go to post for this 3m handicap hurdle.

Sea Scorpion, bounced back to form when finishing a close up 3^rd at Limerick over the Christmas period. That effort came on soft ground so underfoot conditions will be different today. If he builds on his Limerick effort, he’s back down to a winnable mark.

Global Racing, a winner over C&D two starts back followed up that with an improved performance when 3^rd at Fairyhouse 15-days ago. The handicapper has put him up 2lb for that run but he remains a strong contender.

Load Up Time, trained by Gordon Elliott put in a career best when 3^rd of 20 at Navan last month, the 7^th home in the race won at Naas yesterday, and given he’s only had six starts over hurdles he could have a bit more progress in him. Steps up to 3m here and if he stays has to be considered a big player.

Leader Writer, was one place and 2 ¾ lengths behind Load Up Time in the Navan race. Prior to that she had finished a 4 length 3^rd behind Global Racing over C&D and gets an 8lb pull today. The mare remains a maiden after six starts over hurdles but she’s on a winnable mark and gets the first time cheekpieces today.

Sea Scorpion – 15/2 @ William Hill

Lady Writer – 8/1 – Gen

4:20 – BoyleSports Grand National Trial Handicap Chase (Grade B) – 3m 4 ½ f

Clearly now the race of the weekend and a field of 17 handicap chasers are set to go to post.

Isleofhopendreams, was runner-up in this race last year, beaten off 7lb lower he then went onto finish runner-up in the Irish Grand National beaten just a head off 2lb lower. Pulled up in the Thyestes Chase on his seasonal reappearance like he was last season. He’s temptingly priced but would probably prefer softer ground and he’s still to prove he can match last seasons from.

Some Neck, also trained by Willie Mullins was, well fancied for the Thyestes (15/2) but fell at the 8^th. He’s the choice of Ruby Walsh and won a Punchestown Grade 2 novices chase two starts back. If non the worse for his latest mishap then he’s got a good chance.

Solomn Grundy, a previous eyecatcher when given too much to when 4^th in the Paddy Power handicap chase. Tom Scudamore replaces a 7lb conditional jockey today and he should be well suited by this marathon trip.

Fitzhenry, finished a place ahead of Solomn Grundy in the Paddy Power. Blinkers on for first time today and the 7-year-old did win in the first time cheekpieces 12 months ago. Another strong contender.

The booking of Sean Bowen is an eye-catching one for Kilkishen who was a comfortable winner at Fairyhouse last month. The 9-year-old should improve for today’s longer distance and can go well off his low weight.

Youcantcallherthat, can’t be ruled out either. The mare was in the form of her life this time last year when winning three novice chases and wasn’t disgraced in a Grade 1 at the Punchestown Festival. Quiet on her three starts this season but shaped well over hurdles back in December. She wouldn’t be far away on her best form but is another who could probably do with the ground easing further.

Agent Boru’s sole career win came in a valuable 3m handicap hurdle at Fairyhouse last April. The 8-year-old hasn’t been disgraced on his four start over fences over shorter trips this season. Handicap chase debut today. He’s 4lb out of the handicap but today’s longer trip should suit and he could easily reach the places.

Verdict: Kilkishen looks the ideal type for a staying handicap chase like thisbutam going with the Paddy Power form taking Solomn Grundy to finish ahead of Fitzhenry this time with Agent Boru a lively each way contender.

Solomn Grundy – 7/1 @ Coral & Betway

Kilkishen – 6/1 @ Paddy Power & Bet365

Agent Boru – 20/1 @ William Hill (paying 5 places 1/5 odds)

Always check with an odds comparison service like Oddschecker to get the best prices available

All selections win only unless indicated as each way.

Good luck with your bets.