Author: John Burke

Hi all,

I picked the wrong one in yesterday’s Last Fling Handicap Chase. Here’s hoping for better for my last selection of the decade.

Warwick

3:10 – Trainer Sam Drinkwater was unlucky not to land a big gamble when Howling Milan came down at the last at Newbury on Saturday.  Here’s hoping his runner here Top Decision can make amends today. The 6-year-old won a handicap hurdle at this meeting 12 months ago. He failed to complete on his first two start over fences this season but shaped a bit better when 2^nd of 4 at Southwell 16-days ago. Capable of going one better with a clear round.

Top Decision – 13/2 @ Bet365

Happy New Year to one an all.

Cheers

John

Hi all,

My last notebook of the year and indeed the decade.

There was plenty of high-class racing, plenty of poor and even more indifferent racing fare over the Christmas period.  However, there were a few eye-catching races both sides of the Irish Sea.

The racing in January isn’t anywhere as good as the previous couple of months albeit there are few decent Saturday handicaps to keep us interested.

Most punters thoughts, if they haven’t already, will be drifting toward the Cheltenham Festival. I know mine do at the start of a new year.

Anyway, enough of all that let’s looks back at the festive action, there’s plenty of it and I haven’t even covered the Grade 1 races.

Thursday December 26^th

Kempton

Commanche Red was a tidy winner of the 2m 4 ½ f novices handicap chase and can win again if placed in the right race. However, the two to take out of the race for the future are Simply The Betts and Hold The Note who I tipped up ante post for the race

Simply The Betts – Harry Whittington

Finished nine lengths behind the winner but he did well to get as close as he did at the finish. His jumping wasn’t as fluent as it had been on his two previous starts, continually jumping out to his left, and he was well behind coming to two out. He stayed on well to the line despite slipping on landing at the last. No problem with the step up in trip for the 6-year-old who is clearly better jumping left-handed. He remains progressive and can win more races.

Hold The Note – Mick Channon

On his second start over fences the 5-year-old was tracking the leaders and going nicely when Roll Again fell at the 10^th. He was badly hampered by the faller and it was a race ending mishap and he was soon pulled up. He looks to have the ability to win races in this company.

This is a race where the form is worth following. Indeed, if you had backed all the horses running in this race on their next start you would have made £18.98 profit to a £1 level stake. The results for those having their next start within 30-days is 15 winners from 33 runners 45% +44.23 20 placed 61%.

This is one of the hot races in the NH calendar that you need to note!

Wetherby

The Rowland Meyrick Chase at Wetherby is usually a competitive handicap chase and I think this year’s renewal was above average. It’s not quite as hot a race as the previous one but if you had backed the first three home on their next start you would have made a £7.50 profit to a £1 level stake. The profit has come from following those runners who step up to Grade 2 company on their next start – 5 winners from 15 runners 33% +23.50 9 placed 60%

Winner Top Ville Ben put in a career best effort under 11-11 to win by eight lengths. He will be of interest should he step up into Grade 2 company for his next run.

Lake View Lad – Nick Alexander

The 2018 winner of the Rowland Meyrick, off 8lb lower, needs much further these days but this was a welcome return to form for the 9-year-old who was staying on well after the last to finish third. Given he’s 3 wins from 5 runs 4 placed at Newcastle, the 4m Eider Chase could be an ideal race for him especially if he gets his favoured soft or heavy ground.

Friday December 27th

Leopardstown

The Moyglass Flyer was a battling winner off the 2m handicap hurdle on his handicap debut and just his third career start. He’s clearly going the right way and can more races and could stay further on the evidence of this performance.

Golden Jewel – Edward Cawley

The 7-year-old doesn’t win very often just 3 wins from 23 runs under rules, but he came from further back than the two who finished in front of him in finishing third. Given his three previous best RPR’s had come over 2m 3f/2m 4f this was a good effort. A big field really suits as his best four RPR’s have now come in field sizes 17+.  A return to further could see him back into the winner’s enclosure again.

Ilikedwayurthinkin – Gavin Cromwell

Much less exposed than Golden Jewel just as eyecatching for the future was Ilikedwayurthinkin’s run in 5^th. Beaten 9 lengths by the winner but he wasn’t subjected to hard race. Twice a winner at Galway in the summer, on good ground, he seemed to handle the soft ground well enough here. One of the novices two career wins has come over 2m 5f so he shouldn’t be phased by a return to further than 2m. Given he’s just had the nine career starts there should be a more to come from the 5-year-old. Owned by J P McManus it’s worth assuming that connections have nice target in mind for him.

Any Second Now – Ted Walsh

Daily Punt readers will know that I have put this one up as my Christmas eyecatcher in this week’s column. If you haven’t read it this what I wrote:

There were a fair few eyecatchers over the Christmas period. The one that caught my eye the most ran in an incident packed Paddy Power Handicap Chase at Leopardstown on Friday.

Any Second Now, winner of last year’s Kim Muir Handicap Chase. The 7-year-old who had been the beaten favourite in the race 12 months ago. The 7-year-old was well backed again this year and was in the process of running a big race when bought down four out. He stays 3m 2 ½ f as he showed at Cheltenham last season so he could well be aimed at something like the Irish Grand National.

Saturday December 28^th

Leopardstown

Pertemps Series qualifiers need to come with a wealth warning and only the final should be a betting race for punters unless you really strongly fancy one. That didn’t stop me playing in the Leopardstown qualifier on Saturday. As usually my two selections failed to deliver.

Last year’s Pertemps Final winner Sire De Berlais was beaten 13 lengths into 9^th and he still needs to qualify for the final itself. He will drop a 1lb or two for this effort but must finish in the first 6^th in the next qualifier to be able to run at Cheltenham.

The Storyteller like Sire De Berlais trained by Gordon Elliott was given a peach of ride by Davy Russell to finish 6^th and qualify for Cheltenham. The 8-year-old has only had the nine starts over hurdles, winning three of them and is 16lb lower than over fences. He looks an ideal type for the final and not surprisingly was backed after this effort.

Tout Est Permis finished two places in front of The Storyteller and now also qualified for the series final. A high-class staying chaser he’s run well on both his last two starts since returning to hurdles. He had been nudged up 5lb for his second placed effort at Navan last time. He’s got an even lower hurdle mark to exploit than The Storyteller being rated 29lb lower than he is over fences. He will probably be nudged up 1lb or two for this effort, but no horse rated under 134 has managed to get in to the final in the past 5-year. The 6-year-old probably needs to win a handicap hurdle to guarantee he gets to Cheltenham. If he does, he will be major contender.

There was another interesting handicap hurdle on the card.

Dalton Highway broke his maiden tag over hurdles at the 5^th attempt when winning the 2m 4 ½ handicap hurdle. A useful staying handicapper on the level there should be more to come from the Dermot Weld trained 6-year-old in the sphere.

Goodbye Someday – John Kiely

The 5-year-old who had shaped like a future winner when 2^nd of 13 on his handicap hurdle debut over 2m at Cork earlier in the month. Well backed before the off into 6/1 he was well fancied on his step up in distance. He was still very much in contention, just behind the leader when hampered and carried out four from home. It was to early to say where he would have finished but given the market support, he received it suggests connections think they have a well handicapped horse on their hands.

Newbury

On To Victory – Alan King

A useful stayer on the flat and listed placed over 1m6f. The 5-year-old had been well fancied to make a winning hurdle at Haydock early in the month. He was still bang there when stumbling after the last and unseating his rider. Well backed again he ran well to finish 3^rd of 17 behind Mr Coffey. The winner is highly regarded by Nicky Henderson so the form could turn out to be very useful. Given On To Victory stays well on the flat he will probably improve for step up in trip over hurdles.  Should win races in the sphere on the evidence of this performance.

The Mandarin Handicap Chase may not be the race it was, but this year’s renewal produced an impressive winner in the Colin Tizzard trained Copperhead. The 5-year-old up 9lb for winning at Wincanton. The rise in the ratings was no problem for this improving staying chaser. He will go up in the weights again for this win but could easily develop into an RSA Novices Chase contender or even more, so a National Hunt Chase type, given his novice status.

Morning Vicar – Nicky Henderson

Nicky Henderson saddled three runners in the novices’ handicap chase that concluded the Newbury card. He won the race with Burbank but the shortest priced of his three Morning Vicar could be the win to take out of the race. Runner-up in a handicap hurdle at Kempton on his seasonal reappearance. He was sent off 7/2 on his chase debut. The 6-year-old is bred to make a chaser and although he didn’t jump brilliantly in the early part of the race he got better as the race went on and was still travelling nicely when taking a heavy fall four out. If his confidence isn’t too badly damaged after this fall, he can win races off his handicap mark.

Sunday December 29th

Leopardstown

Foxy Jacks – ‘Mouse’ Morris

The 5-year-old twice a runner-up in maiden hurdle company last season. He hadn’t run particularly well on his first two start of this season. However, he bounced back to form when finish 4^th of 11 behind Peaches And Cream. Beaten 3 ¼ lengths at the line he did best of those held up on his handicap hurdle debut. He should stay a bit further than 2m 4 ½ f but he needs to tidy up his jumping which remains novicey if he’s to exploit what looks a winning mark.

My latest ante post article which contains a few Cheltenham Festival bets will be posted by this time tomorrow.

Cheers

John

Hi all,

The drying ground at Leopardstown led to whole host of non-runners and the it probably didn’t suit Cavalry Master in the handicap hurdle.

No denying we are struggling for winners since Boxing Day but we had such a good few weeks earlier in the month that’s it’s to be expected. Hopefully thing will turn around before the new year.

There’s a good Class 2 handicap chase at Haydock that has tempted me in.

Haydock

2:00 – Just the six are set to go to post for the Class 2 Last Fling Handicap Chase but dspite the lack of runners, it doesn’t lack quality.

I fancied Classic Ben for the voided London National where he fell early. If none the worse for that mishap he’s got a good chance here.

Thomas Patrick represents the inform Tom Lacey stable. The 7-year-old looked set for a good season when running Elegant Escape to ½ length at Sandown on his seasonal return last season. He didn’t build on that promise on four subsequent starts., in fact he was dreadful albeit they were better races.  First run since February but he’s just 1lb higher than his last winning mark and would take all the beating if bouncing back to his best.

Lord Du Mesnil made all to win to win the Tommy Whittle here at the last meeting. The extra two & half furlongs of this race will suit. The 6-year-old’s two wins have both come on heavy, which clearly suits and if he gets into a good jumping rhythm like he did last time he could be hard to peg back. Up 10lb but should give it a good go.

Potters Legend won here in March, off 3lb lower and is another who can’t be discounted.

Verdict: Like the bookies I find it hard to separate recent course winner Lord Du Mesnil and Thomas Patrick.

1pt win – Thomas Patrick – 3/1 – Gen

Cheers

John

Hi all,

Once Howling Milan fell, when still in the lead at the last at Newbury you just knew it wasn’t going to be our day.

Here’s hoping for better on Sunday. Leopardstown takes centre stage with two Grade 1’s the highlights of a seven-race card.

Leopardstown

1:55 – Neville Hotels Novice Chase (Grade 1) – 3m

Gordon Elliott has won three of the last four running’s of this Grade 1 novice chase, including the last two. He saddles likely favourite Battleoverdoyen & Champagne Classic. The former has won both his two starts over fences and looks a solid mark leader. The latter has won his last two starts over fences and I don’t think there will be much between the pair. However, both could struggle against Albert Bartlett Novice Hurdle winner Minello Indo. The 6-year-old made an encouraging debut over the larger obstacles when runner-up to Laurina on his chase debut at Gowran Park last month. The 2m 4f was a bit short for him and he should be seen to better effect back over 3m. He’s jumping was solid at Gowran Park and he remains an exciting novice chasing prospect. The one to beat with that seasonal return under his belt.  Carefully Selected runner-up in the 2018 Cheltenham Champion bumper. Just had the two starts over hurdles last season, the best of them when finishing 3^rd to 12 to Minella Indo in the Grade 1 at the Punchestown Festival. The 7-year-old made a successful debut over fences when winning a Fairyhouse beginners chase 29-days ago. Another who will be suited by a return to 3m but he needs to jump better than he did last time.

Verdict: This could be the race of the four days. Carefully Selected could cause a minor surprise if his jumps better than he did on his return.

1pt win – Carefully Selected – 6/1 @ Coral

2:30 – Matheson Hurdle (Grade 1) – 2m

Klassical Dream won last years Supreme Hurdle and was fully expected to make a winning debut in open company on his return in the Morgana Hurdle but could only finish third. Better can be expected from the 5-year-old today but he looks plenty short in the market at 5/4 given a disappointing effort in the Morgana. Darasso won a weak Grade 3 at Gowran Park when dropped to 2m in February and ended last season winning a Grade 2 novices’ chase at Navan a month later. He looked an exciting prospect for the season when winning at Navan and it’s interesting that connections allow him to make his seasonal reappearance here back over hurdles.  Coeur Sublime runner-up in last season’s Triumph Hurdle made a winning return to action when winning a Grade 2 at Down Royal in November. Looks a stronger horse this season and is going the right way but if he’s to be a genuine Champion Hurdle contender he needs to win this.

Verdict: I’m expecting much better from Klassical Dream on a track that suits but at the prices Darasso looks worth chancing.  

1pt win – Darasso – 13/2 @ Bet365

There are also two big field handicaps on the Leopardstown card.

12:10 – It normally pays to note any Edward Harty trained runners at Leopardstown’s Christmas Festival. Since 2014 he’s had 3 winners from 10 runners 30% + 3.01.  He saddles the lightly raced Uaintseenothingyet. The 8-year-old has just had the five starts over fences and has each way claims on his best form.

0.5pts each way – Uaintseenothingyet – 16/1 @ Unibet (paying 5 places 1/5 odds)

3:05 – Drop the Anchor broke his maiden tag over hurdle at the seventh attempt when winning a Punchestown handicap hurdle 42-days ago. He’s up 8lb for that success but the return to 2m 4 ½ f should be in his favour, as will the soft ground.

Envious Editor showed promise in maiden hurdle company last season and made an encouraging return to action when 4^th of 25 at Navan 22-days ago. The 5-year-old stays 2m 4f and makes his handicap debut of what looks a workable mark off 120.

Millen To One seemed to show improved form for the step up to 2m 3 ½ f when 4^th of 13 at Clonmel two starts back. The 5-year-old wasn’t suited by the drop back to 2m when beaten favourite back at the same venue 24-days ago. Return to further should be in his favour for his handicap hurdle debut and he looks interesting off a mark of just 109. Like Envious Editor he’s capable of better now going handicapping.

Cavalry Master represents the inform Henry De Bromhead stable. The trainer won this race in 2016 and Cavalry Master comes into the race after a battling win in a Punchestown maiden hurdle last month. The 5-year-old should develop into a good chaser in time but he’s capable of winning a race like this over hurdles. Makes his handicap hurdle debut and is open to plenty of improvement for this step up to 2m 4 ½ f.

Verdict: Drop The Anchorhas the form in the book but the likes of Envious Editor, Millen To One and Cavalry Master are all open to more progress now going handicapping, especially the latter named.

1pt win – Cavalry Master – 4/1 @ Paddy Power & William Hill

1pt win – Envious Editor – 7/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

Cheers

John

Hi all,

A disappointing Friday after an excellent Boxing Day although Plan Of Attack did manage to place at 18/1 in the Paddy Power Handicap Chase.

Today’s action is centred at Leopardstown & Newbury although there’s a valuable handicap chase at Limerick.

Leopardstown

12:50 – Pertemps Series Qualifier’s are races that should usually come with a wealth warning. This one more than most as there are 27 declared runners.

Sire De Berlais won the last seasons final at Cheltenham and was an eyecatching 4^th at Navan three weeks ago. Probably being aimed at the final again and won’t find top weight of 12-1 easy to defy here. Two places in front of Sir De Berlais at Navan was Tout Est Permis. A high-class staying chaser he’s been nudged up 5lb for that effort but is still 29lb lower rated over hurdles than he is over fences.

Rock De Baune was 5^th in this race last year, A winner on the flat at the Listowel Festival in September and put in a career best over hurdles at Naas 49-days ago. This is only his second start over 3m and the 5-year-old remains capable of better.

A Great View is another recent eyecatcher when staying on into 4^th over an inadequate 2m last month. That was the 8-year-old’s first start since finishing 9^th in this race 12 months ago. Sixth in the 2018 Final, he was also beaten just a short head in this race in 2017 and one a valuable handicap hurdle at the Punchestown during a productive season.

Verdict: Tout Est Permis has hurdle races in him off his much lower mark. Rock De Baune remains unexposed over 3m and ran well in the race 12 months ago. Likewise, A Great View was runner-up in this race two years ago and shaped with promise over an inadequate 2m last time.

1pt win – Rock De Baune – 7/1 @ Bet365

0.5pts each way – A Great View – 16/1 @ Bet365 (paying 5 places ¼ odds)

Newbury

1:50 – Howling Moon won a maiden hurdle here over 2m ½ f back in January. After two poor runs on his return to action the 5-year-old put in a much better effort and a career best when 4^th of 16 over C&D 28-days ago. Has been dropped 2lb since that effort and has each way claims again today. Point Of Principle is making his seasonal return here. The 6-year-old has gone well fresh in the past, including when runner-up at Chepstow last season. He ended last season with an excellent close-up 2^nd of 22 in a valuable handicap hurdle at Aintree in April. Up 5lb but more than capable of being involved if on a going day.

Verdict: Howling Moon has each way claimsif building on his recent fourth placed effort over C&D. Point Of Principle may not be the consistent of horses but he’s capable of winning a race like this if at his best and trainer Tim Vaughan won this race in 2016.

0.5pts each way – Point Of Principle – 14/1 @Paddy Power @Betfair Sportsbook (both paying 4 places 1/5 odds)

0.5pts each way – Howling Moon – 14/1 @ Paddy Power @Betfair Sportsbook (both paying 4 places 1/5 odds)

2:35 – Polydora looks capable of winning off his present mark based on his 4^th of 11 behind De Rasher Counter at Uttoxeter in March, now 6lb lower. Needs to jump better than he did when runner-up on his seasonal return at Ayr last month but at least should strip fitter today.

1pt win – Polydora – 5/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

3:35 – Trainer Emma Lavelle won this race 12 months ago with De Rasher Counter and has a chance of back to back wins with Down The Highway. A useful novice hurdler last season the 6-year-old ran well enough on his chase debut at Stratford to think he can win races over fences. Disappointed when only 7/2 on his handicap chase debut at Chepstow 21-days ago although he did lose a shoe in that race which is possible excuse for that run. Commodore Barry runner-up on his first two start over fences ran out five out at Leicester when still in the lead last time. A solid enough jumper he may find 2m 6 ½ f a bit on the short side as he’s a strong stayer. Tidal Flow a winner here over hurdles last season built on the promise of his chase debut when jumping soundly to win a Uttoxeter beginners chase 18-days ago. Has top-weight to carry but still needs respecting on just his third start over the larger obstacles.

Verdict: Tidal Flow will be popular after his recent Uttoxeter success. Down The Highway represents last years winning trainer and has each way claims.

0.5pts each way – Down The Highway – 12/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

Limerick

2:50 – A field of 16 are declared to go to post for this 2m 3 ½ f handicap chase.

Ministerforsport a winner here over hurdles, is 0 wins from 5 starts over fences but shaped well enough when a close up 3^rd of 9 in a beginners’ chase at Listowel two starts back. Was still in contention when making a bad mistake four out at Thurles 30-days ago. Only beaten four lengths into third by A Plus Tard, at Naas 12 months ago, just behind subsequent Arkle winner Duc Des Genievres. Makes his handicap chase debut off a workable mark and if none the worse for his Thurles mishap has each way claims on ground that will suit.

Without Limites returned from 12 months off the track when winning a Gowran Park Handicap Hurdle 85-days ago. Goes well fresh and in the mud. The 7-year-old is capable of better over fences although may need further to show it.

Articulum had a good novice chase season and finished 3^rd of 12 in the Arkle Chase at Cheltenham. Ran well when runner-up at Cork on his seasonal reappearance back in October. The 9-year-old also ran well when 3^rd of 15 back over hurdles at Fairyhouse at the beginning of the month. Has top-weight of 11-10 to carry but looks set for a good run.

Redhotfillypeppers won a novice chase here on her first start over fences at this meeting last year. The mare wasn’t disgraced when 5^th of 23 in the Troytown Handicap Chase on her return to action 34-days ago. That run should have taken some of the freshness out of the 7-year-old and the drop back in distance shouldn’t be too much of an issue either.

Verdict: There are plenty in with a chance for this valuable prize. Redhotfillypeppers should be sharper for her Troytown run. Articulum is a strong contender even under top weight. Minsterforsport just gets the nod on his handicap chase debut off what looks a workable mark on his best form.

0.5pts each way – Ministerforsport – 10/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes (both paying 4 places ¼ odds)

0.5pts each way – Articulum – 10/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook (both paying 5 places 1/5 odds)

Cheers

John

Hi all,

Clan Des Obeaux & Top Ville Ben landed the big Christmas races at Kempton & Wetherby to get the festive racing off to a great start for subscribers.

There’s more top-class racing on Friday with the highlight being the Coral Welsh Grand National at Chepstow.

I have selections from Chepstow, Kempton and over the Irish Sea at Leopardstown.

Chepstow

2:50 – Coral Welsh Grand National Handicap Chase (Grade 3) – 3m 6 ½ f

A field of 17 are set to go to post for this annual Christmas cracker of a handicap chase.

It was disappointing Boxing Day for trainer Colin Tizzard with Lostintranslation’s tame effort in the King George VI. However, Elegant Escape has a great chance of back to back wins in the race. The 7-year-old maybe 9lb higher than when winning this 12 months ago but he’s the class horse of the race and will take some stopping.

For those looking for runners at bigger prices, Pobbles Bay and The Two Amigos have each way claims. The first named won the 3m 4f West Wales National at Ffos Las in the spring, off 9lb lower. Two runs over hurdles so far this season will have put him spot on fitness wise for this. Retains some potential for better over marathon trips and is a lively long shot.

The Two Amigos is a solid jumper and stays well, won the Sussex National and an Exeter marathon chase last season. Three from six over fences and is effective on soft & heavy ground. The 7-year-old has scope for further improvement this season and is another each way contender at big odds.

Verdict: Elegant Escape will take plenty of beating but hopefully Pobbles Bay and The Two Amigos can get into the money.

0.5pts each way – Pobbles Bay – 20/1 @ Coral (Paying 5 places 1/5 odds)

0.5pts each way – The Two Amigos – 20/1 @ Bet365 (paying 4 places ¼ odds)

Kempton

1:55 – Culture De Sivola won these mares only handicap hurdle 12 months ago. The 7-year-old shaped with promise when 3^rd of 11 at Uttoxeter before finishing runner up to Papagana in a Listed Mares hurdle here last month. Racing off 5lb higher this time around she remains on a competitive mark and has a great chance of back to back wins in the race. Molly Childers was beaten 1 ¾ lengths by Culture De Sivola last year but she gets a 6lb pull and her trainer Stuart Edmunds has his horses in winning form. She won’t be far away again.

1pt win – Culture De Sivola – 7/2 – Gen

1pt win – Molly Childers – 9/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

Wetherby

1:55 – Chesterfield, a high-class handicap hurdler, made a promising handicap chase debut when 3^rd of 14 behind Magic Saint at Newbury. The 9-year-old has only had the five starts over fences and remains with potential over fences. Might be better on a slightly sounder surface but even so looks set for big run. Charmant gets the first time cheekpieces today. The 7-year-old looked a handicap chaser worth following when winning at Ayr in March off 5lb lower and fell when still going well at Carlisle in a novice chase later that month. Made an encouraging return to action when 4^th of 8 at Aintree 48-days ago. Capable of going close if the first-time headgear has the desired effect.

1pt win – Chesterfield – 6/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

1pt win – Charmant – 17/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

Leopardstown

Although the most competitive race of the day is the Welsh Grand National. Today’s Leopardstown card is the best in terms of quality with two Grade 1 races and a couple of valuable big field handicaps part of a seven-race card.

2:55 – Paddy Power Chase (Extended Handicap Chase) (Grade B) – 3m

Twenty-eight handicap chasers are set to go to post for this year’s running of the Paddy Power Handicap Chase.

No Comment found 2m an inadequate trip behind Magic Saint at Newbury last time. The 8-year-old will be better suited by a return to 3m and should be judged on his 5^th of 23 in the Kim Muir Handicap Chase at Cheltenham in March. He’s on a winnable mark and shouldn’t be far away.

Four places in front of him at Cheltenham was Any Second Now. The 7-year-old was the beaten favourite in this race 12 months ago (5/1) when 5^th of 27 and looks capable of going close if on a going day. Poor seasonal reappearance at Cork but ran a lot better when runner-up to Battleoverdoyen at Punchestown last month.

Fitzhenry was third in this 12 months ago and is another set for a big run especially if the going was to ease further. Like the previous two horses mentioned he’s owned by J P McManus who has a strong hand of runners in the race.

Trainer Henry De Bromhead also has a strong hand of runners with Poker Party, Solomn Grundy & Plan of Attack all being strong contenders. The latter made it 2 wins from 3 runs over fences when winning at Aintree 61-days ago. He’s only 3lb higher now and the 6-year-old who has seemed at his best on a sound surface showed he’s versatile going wise when winning on soft at Aintree.  Needs to improve further to win a race of this quality but he’s going the right way and the progress required could be forthcoming.

0.5pts each way – Any Second Now – 16/1 @ Bet365 – (paying 5 places ¼ odds)

0.5pts each way – Plan Of Attack – 18/1 @ Ladbrokes (paying 6 places 1/5 odds)

Cheers

John

Hi all,

A bit of a losing run came to an end with two winners at Ascot, courtesy of run-away winner Not So Sleepy and the impressive Espoir De Guye.

I’m away until the December 27^th so there won’t be any selections on Boxing Day. However, here are some selections for the Boxing Day cards at Kempton & Wetherby. I have added the best prices at time of writing should you decide to go in ante post.

Happy Christmas and see you on Friday.

Thursday December 26^th

Kempton

3:05 – Ladbrokes King George VI Chase (Grade 1) – 3m

This Grade 1 chase was first run in 1937. The race has been one by some of steeplechasing’s great including Arkle and more latterly Kauto Star who won the race five times between 2006 & 2011. 

Looking at the ten-year trends which contain 10 winners from 89 runners 28 placed.

All ten winners shared the following:

Last Time Out Placing: First Four

Days Since last Run: 26 to 75-days

Minimum Distance Ran: 3m ½ f+

10 winners from 40 runners +4.48 22 placed 55%

Cyrname – Heads the ante post betting at a best priced 2/1. He’s at his best going right-handed and after beating Altior at Ascot is the best chaser in training. The negative he’s yet to race beyond 2m 5f. No horse in the past ten years has won the race having not raced at 3m +. A bold jumper he could lead them all a merry dance, but he will have to be a superstar to win for me.

Lostintranslation – The only horse in the running after winning the Chase Triple Crown after his win in the Betfair Chase at Haydock last month. I think he should be heading the market. He looked all speed when winning at Haydock so this might well be his Gold Cup.

Clan Des Obeaux – Took his form to a new level when winning this race last year. He travelled sweetly through the race and found enough after the last to hold off Thistlecrack.  Not as good on subsequent starts in the Gold Cup & Aintree.  Will be all the better for his seasonal reappearance at Down Royal 54-days ago. He’s 4 wins from 9 runs +10.34 5 placed when returning from a 31 to 60-day break so lack of a recent run isn’t a negative. He should a good tow into the race from stablemate Cyrname. This is his Gold Cup and I can’t see him being out the first three

1pt win – Clan Des Obeaux – 4/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook

Given we are only at the five-day stage of declarations then running plans are still fluid for the next two races.

1:20 – Ladbrokes “Where The Nation Plays” Chase (A Novices’ Limited Handicap) (Class 3) – 2m 4 ½ f

This is normally a useful novices handicap chase and the form should be worth following going forward.

Sammy Bill is a young handicap chaser very much on an upward curve. The 6-year-old is 2 wins from 2 runs over fences. A winner over C&D on his seasonal return he improved further when winning at Aintree 19-days ago.  The handicapper has raised him 11lb for his last win, but his improvement probably hasn’t just yet. This will be the softest ground he’s faced so far in his career.

Simply The Betts is another chaser very much on the up. He’s also 2 wins from 2 runs over fences.  A winner of a good race at Chepstow, form working out well, on his chasing debut. He didn’t have to improve much to beat two rivals at Newcastle on his last start. A stronger run race will suit him, and he goes well on soft ground.  Both chase wins have come over 2m but should stay 2m 4f. Up 8lb for his last win but he remains on a winnable mark.

Trainer Mick Channon won this race 12 months ago and had the runner up in 2017 & 2013. He could saddle Hold The Note. The 5-year-old has only had the six career starts winning a bumper and a Doncaster novice hurdle last December.  He was sent off the 13/8 favourite for his chase debut at Ludlow last month. He jumped well enough that day and should be sharper with that run under his belt. Given his trainer’s record in the race he must be considered a major contender off 133.

Verdict: I’m a big fan of Sammy Bill and if he handles the much softer ground, he can win this. However, Simply The Betts has the form on the ground and should be suited by today’s bigger field. Hold The Note represents a trainer who knows what’s required to win this race and has to be high on the shortlist.

1pt win – Hold The Note – 10/1 @ Paddy Power & William Hill

1pt win – Simply The Betts – 6/1 @ Bet365

Wetherby

2:10 – 888Sport Rowland Meyrick Handicap Chase (Grade 3) – 3m

If the leading contenders in the ante post betting stand their ground, then we could be in for a top-class renewal of the Rowland Meyrick Handicap Chase.

Belami Des Pictons who missed Ascot’s Silver Cup heads the ante post betting. A winner over 3m on heavy ground. The 8-year-old’s 4th of 17 in the BetVictor Gold Cup was an eye-catching one and the handicapper has dropped him 1lb since Cheltenham.  Not a certain runner but he looks a solid favourite off his current mark of 145.

Next in the betting is the classy Kalashnikov who has top-weight of 11-12 to carry should he run.  Runner-up on both his starts this season this will be his first run over further than 2m 4f. Ground will suit but will his stamina hold for the new distance?

Top Ville Ben was third in the Rehearsal Chase. He had jumped well out in front and only caught in the final 100yds. Up 3lb, but he was a high-class staying novice chaser last season and has nice pot like this in him. The 7-year-old goes well on soft ground and has won twice over C&D.  A big player here.

Captain Chaos was ¼ length in front of Top Ville Ben in the Rehearsal.  The first time cheekpieces seemed to work the trick at Newcastle. He was second in this race 12 months ago and if the headgear works again, he should be bang there.  

In addition to Captain Chaos, trainer Dan Skelton could saddle the improving Benny’s King. The 8-year-old made it 3 wins from 5 starts over fences when winning at Newbury last month. That success came over 2m 6 ½ f but he shapes like he will stay 3m.

Lake View Lad won this 12 months ago, off 8lb lower. Well suited to the mud but the 9-year-old will do well to hold Captain Chaos at today’s weights. Was well behind in the Rehearsal Chase but that was his seasonal return and he will be fitter now. He will give it his best, but it will be a tough ask to achieve back to back wins in what looks a better class renewal.

Verdict: This year’s renewal looks stronger than last years. If he runs I can’t leave Belami Des Pictons out of calculations given I fancied him for Saturday’s Ascot handicap. Top Ville Ben likes it around here and has a decent pot in him.

1pt win – Belami Des Pictons – 5/1 @ William Hill & Bet365

1pt win – Top Ville Ben – 13/2 @ Coral or 6/1 @ Ladbrokes

Cheers

John

Hi all,

My final selections before Christmas.  I will be away on holiday now but will be back on Friday December 27^th.

There will be a special ante post angle covering any Boxing Day selections, which will be up on Saturday evening.

Have a great Christmas!

Ascot

With heavy ground the order of the day I’m not going in to deep today tips wise but there are a handful of further selections to complement my earlier ante post bets.

1:50 – Plymouth Gin Handicap Chase (Class 2) – 2m 3f

I’m not sure my ante post selection Mr Medic will enjoy the heavy ground.

Espoir De Guye represents the very much inform Venetia Williams stable. The 5-year-old built on the promise of his chase debut with a comfortable win at Exeter 15-days ago. Up 9lb for that success but he’s a young handicap chaser going the right way. Exeter win came on soft ground so should be fine on heavy.

First Flow beat two rivals when winning a Hereford novice chase last time. Handicap chase debut and looks on a competitive mark. Needs to jump better in this company than he has done on his three chase starts so far but is a big player if he does. Ground no problem and step up from 2 mile should suit.

If the Ben Pauling stable was in better form, I would be more confident about the chances of Delire D’estruval who is just 4lb higher than when winning at Sandown in March. The 6-year-old is a good jumper of a fence, will be suited by the soft ground, 3 wins from 6 runs on soft/heavy and is suited to stiff right-handed track 3 wins from 4 runs. First run for 287-days but did win first time up last season.

Another trainer not exactly banging in the winners is Paul Nicholls. He saddles My Way who gets the first time cheekpieces today. He’s 0 wins from 6 runs over fences but he handled heavy when trained in France and has each way claims if the headgear has the desired effect.

Verdict: The heavy ground has probably gone against Mr Medic. With the Venetia Williams horses going so well then Espoir De Guye shouldn’t be far away. But for the trainer form, Delire D’estruval looks shade overpriced.

1pt win – Espoir De Guye – 4/1 @ Bet365

3:00 – Dave Dawes Silver Cup Handicap Chase (Listed Race) – 3m

I looked at the race in detail in the ante post angle. One of my Belami Des Pictons is a non-runner but Kildisart is among ten runners who stand their ground for this competitive looking handicap chase.

No Belami Des Pictons but Venetia Williams saddles Yalltari instead. Yalltari will be having his first start since finishing third in the Reynoldstown Novices Chase at Ascot back in February. He could have gone for the Tommy Whittle at Haydock was ante post favourite for that race. Interesting that he’s been routed here. Form figures on heavy going 112.  Capable of better but does need to improve to defy a mark of 145.

Verdict: With Belami Des Pictons now a non-runner I’m happy to go in with stablemate Yalltari who should be fit enough for his seasonal return.

1pt win – Yalltari – 4/1 @Bet365

3:35 – Betfair Exchange Trophy (A Handicap Hurdle) (Grade 3) – 1m 7 ½ f

A field of sixteen stand their ground for the biggest betting race of the day.

Not So Sleepy was gifted an easy lead when winning a Class 2 C&D handicap hurdle here 29-days ago. Probably won’t get that luxury here but he’s only up 5lb for that success. He handles heavy/soft ground and trainer Hughie Morrison won this race in 2001.

Harambe, Monsieur Lecoq & Quoi De Neuf were 1^st, 3^rd & 4^th in the Greatwood Hurdle at Cheltenham last month. That’s solid form and all three are contenders here despite rising in the weights.

Monsieur Lecoq ran at Cheltenham last Saturday. He was an eyecatching fourth behind Call Me Lord that day.  A better overall gallop would suit the 5-year-old as will return to handicap company. Provided this race doesn’t come to quick I wouldn’t be surprised if he fared best of those who ran in the Greatwood.

Umbrigado didn’t stay 3m in a valuable handicap at Haydock 28-days ago. He shapes like he remains on a competitive mark if the drop back in trip doesn’t prove to much of an inconvenience. On the positive side his stamina will come into play on this stiff track.

Tamaroc Du Mathan returned from a lay off to finish runner-up over C&D last month. He will be sharper for that outing and has potential for further improvement given this will only be the 4-year-old’s third career start. Hard to say he’s well handicapped off mark of 135 and trainer Paul Nicholls is 0 win from 20 runners 6 placed in the race.

Nicky Henderson has won this race four times. He saddles Countister & French Crusader. The former surely needs further than two miles. French Crusader is improving with each start over hurdles and wasn’t disgraced when runner-up to a smart stablemate at Newbury last time. He’s been nudged up 4lb for that effort but seems to be going the right way. Heavy ground is an unknown and his best form so far has come on good to soft or good going.

Verdict: I’m glad I held off this race earlier in the week. Not So Sleepy won’t get the easy lead he got here last time, but he’s got a good chance of another C&D success. Umbrigado looks on a winning mark and his stamina will come into play at the business end of the race. Monsieur Lecoq remains one to be interested in and as long as this race doesn’t come to quick has got good each-way claims.

1pt each way – Not So Sleepy – 10/1 @ Paddy Power (paying 5 places 1/5 odds)

Haydock

2:40 – Betway Tommy Whittle Handicap Chase (Class 2) – 3m 1 ½ f

Just the nine go to post now for what will be a serious test of stamina on heavy ground. My two ante post selections Vintage Clouds & The Hollow Ginge stand their ground which is good news.

Ante post favourite in most lists is the David Pipe trained Daklondike. The 7-year-old won this race 12 months ago on heavy ground off 6lb lower. Should be spot on for this after two runs this autumn and if you fancy, he him I wouldn’t put you off at all. Especially as he’s 3 wins from 3 runs on heavy ground and 3 wins from 3 in December. You could have a saver on him and still make a profit on the race if one of the three selection’s wins.

Verdict: Both my ante post selections stand their ground but likely favourite Daklondike will take the beating in his bid for back to back wins in the race.

1pt win – Daklondike – 9/2 @ Paddy Power

Cheers

John

Hi all,

I was looking forward to Ascot on Friday but the easing of the ground to heavy means field sizes are down on what could have been expected.

Ascot

1:55 – Debuchet is a rare British runner for Irish trainer ‘Mags’ Mullins.  The 6-year-old who had finished runner-up in the 2017 Champion Bumper at Cheltenham didn’t win over hurdles but made a good start to his career over fences when making all to win a novice chase at Fairyhouse 31-days ago. Sully D’Oc AA built on the promise of his chase debut when runner-up to Fanion D’Estruval at Newbury three weeks ago. He was not match for the very impressive winner that day but was clear of the third and can win a race like this off his present mark. Trainer Anthony Honeyball has his horses in great form, and he can get the better of the Irish challenger.

1pt win – Sully D’Oc AA – 9/4 @ Bet365

3:05 – Fortunate George was an eyecatcher when plugging on into third on heavy ground at Sandown 13-days ago. The 9-year-old handles heavy ground but has never won the going. He’s now 9lb lower than his last win at Wincanton in February 2018 and is a well handicapped horse now dropped back into Class 3 company. Each way claims on a potentially tricky day for punters.

0.5pts each way – Fortunate George – 9/1 @ Bet365 & Betway

Dundalk

6:45 – Settle For Bay has dropped back down to the same mark as when winning the Hunt Cup at Ascot back in 2018. Four from six here at Dundalk, no issues with the surface, and shaped back in June like he retains plenty of ability when 4^th in listed company at Leopardstown. First run since a poor run in this years Hunt Cup, soft ground probably didn’t suit.  Will no doubt be heading out to Meydan for the rest of the winter.  Despite the drop back to 7f he’s got the class to win this if fit enough and it’s worth noting he did win off a similar lay off in 2017. Trainer has his horses in winning form and won the big race here last Friday.

1pt each way – Settle For Bay – 10/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

Cheers

John

Hi all,

A rare midweek selection from Ludlow. The course has a precautionary morning inspection to pass but if it does there’s a couple of decent looking handicap chases and one of them provides today’s selection.

Ludlow

2:35 – Ten runners are set to go to post for this Class 3 handicap chase. Wicked Willy looked a useful handicap chaser in the making in early 2018 but seemed to lose his confidence in the spring of that year. Mostly went hurdling last season and managed to win a valuable 2m 5f handicap hurdle at Kempton in March. The 8-year-old has been below his best on two starts this season but wasn’t totally disgraced when 8^th of 13 in the valuable Badger Ales Trophy. Still a few questions to answer over fences but if he can bounce back to form there’s no doubt, he’s on a handy mark. Al his career wins have come going right-handed.  Each way claims in an open race.

0.5pts each way – Wicked Willy – 14/1 @ Bet365 or 12/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

Cheers

John