Author: John Burke

Hi all,

A rare foray into the midweek racing for the service.  There’s a decent card at Newbury with a couple of decent looking handicap chases to look at. Hopefully the course will survive an early morning inspection.

I have the time to have a good look at two of the Newbury races.

Newbury

1:45 – Just five go to post for what looks a competitive looking Class 3 novices handicap chase. You can give all five some sort of chance.

Nicky Henderson saddles Precious Cargo & Champagne Platinum. The first named was 2 from 3 over hurdles last season. The 7-year-old made a winning seasonal return/chase debut when beating two rivals at Haydock 25-days ago.  Had no difficulty with the heavy ground at Haydock. Open to plenty of improvement over the larger obstacles and the one to beat.

Champagne Platinum a winner here over hurdles last season was expected to make up into a useful chaser this season. The 6-year-old had his first start over fences in a hot novices’ chase at Cheltenham last month but never got into any sort of jumping rhythm that day and finished tailed off. He’s surely better than that given how highly regarded he is by the trainer. Could win this but is a risky proposition.

Moonlighter fell early in the race won by Precious Cargo and he’s now failed to complete on two of his three starts over fences. Not without a chance but jumping will be tested around here.

Champagne City was never travelling when disappointing on his chase debut over C&D 47-days.  The saddle slipped that day so that could be an excuse for his poor run. A good hurdler he’s better than what he was able to show last time and trainer Tom George is among the winners. 

However, my preference is for the Tom Lacey trained Vado Forte. The 7-year-old is still searching for his first win after four starts over fences. He bounced back after a poor run at Southwell when beaten just a short head & nose over C&D 18-days ago. Now 4lb higher and against potential improvers but he’s capable of winning a race like this over fences.

Verdict: Precious Cargo looks the most likely winner, but I suspect we’ll see a better run from stablemate Champagne Platinum. At the prices Vado Forte might be the one to take advantage should the favourite under perform.

1pt win – Vado Forte – 7/2 @ Bet365

3:25 – An open looking handicap chase and you can make some sort of case for most of the eight declared runners.

The Alan King trained Notachance heads the early betting market. A winner at Exeter two starts back the 6-year-old wasn’t disgraced when a close-up 5^th of 9 over C&D 28-days ago. Didn’t jump as fluently as he did at Exeter but the first time cheekpieces could help today.  He did win over hurdles here last March so the course shouldn’t stop him from winning that’s for sure.

Indy Five bounced back to form with a big run here over two furlongs further. Was still in contention when falling at the last. I doubt he would have beaten the eventual winner Copperhead but he was bound for the first three.  The drop back to 3m should be in his favour. Clearly not the most straight forward but two of his best three RPR’s have now come at the track.

Scotchtown was a two length, 3^rd of 10 behind Carole’s Destrier in the Mandarin Handicap Chase in December 2018 and then went onto finish runner-up at Sandown on his next start. Handicapped to go close but he remains 0 wins from 12 runs over fences. Was sent off the 3/1 favourite on his return at Carlisle 73-days ago but was well beaten.  The 8-year-old has had a wind-op since his last run which could make all the difference.

Django Django a decent handicap hurdler last season. He looked a horse worth following over fences when 3^rd of 6 to Erick Le Rouge at Uttoxeter on his seasonal return.  Didn’t give his running when pulled up at Aintree 80-days ago. The 3m should suit over fences, won over hurdles over the distance. Risky and trainer form could be better but he’s on competitive mark if returning to his best. 

Sambura Shujaa, a winner twice over hurdles at Chepstow and looked the sort to do well as handicap chaser. Struggled on heavy ground on his chase debut 19-days ago. Might prefer better ground but the 7-year-old is on a competitive mark with Ben Jones taking off a useful 5lb.

Verdict: The testing ground will suit Notachance, Indy Five and Scotchtown but may not suit potential improvers Django Django and Sambura Shujaa.  Slight preference then for Scotchtown and Indy Five.

1pt win – Scotchtown – 7/1 @ Bet365

1pt win – Indy Five – 5/1 @ Bet365 or 6/1 @ William Hill (Not BOG)

Cheers

John

Hi all,

This weekend the big jumps racing caravan rolls into Haydock & Ascot this Saturday.  Both courses play host to seven race cards and they have the potential to produce some competitive racing.  

The going is described as heavy at Haydock and with rain forecast this week it’s highly unlikely to change between now and Saturday. Indeed, too much of the wet stuff could see the meeting in jeopardy. If the fixture goes ahead, the highlight of the card is the Peter Marsh Handicap Chase.

The going at Ascot is being described as good to soft, soft in places. There is Grade 1 action at the Berkshire track on Saturday with the latest running of the Clarence House Chase.  Altior wasn’t declared at the five-day stage but both Defi Du Seuil and Un De Sceaux are among five intended runners[VV1] .

Last week was a quiet one on the eyecatchers front and most of it revolved around the Saturday.  

Tuesday January 7th

Lingfield

Sam Brown – Anthony Honeyball

Returned from over two years of the track to register a comfortable win on his chase debut, in the Lingfield mud. The 8-year-old is now 4 wins from 5 runs with all four wins coming on soft or heavy ground.

Given this was his first start over the larger obstacles you couldn’t fail to be impressed with his jumping which was more like a seasoned handicapper than horse making his debut over fences.

He clearly hasn’t been the easiest to keep sound but he’s young enough to make up for lost time. It will be interesting to see what direction connections go with him, but we do know he jumps, gallops and will stay 3m 2f+.  

For the eyecatchers, I normally try to avoid last time out winners but he’s one to keep onside.

Saturday January 11^th

There were good runs from previous eyecatchers Hold The Note & Sire De Berlais at Warwick.

Hold The Note handled the step up to Grade 2 novice chase company and given this was just his second completed start over fences there was plenty of promise from the 6-year-old.

The handicapper has raised him 12lb for this improved effort which makes life tougher but at least he can get into some of the better handicaps should connections go down that route

Sire De Berlais gained qualification for the Pertemps Final at Cheltenham and will make a bold bid to win the race for the second year running in March.

Kempton

Looking at the times, the going was more, good than good to soft at Kempton on Saturday.

Sammy Bill two from two since going chasing was a warm order for the 2m 4 ½ f handicap chase but seemed to find the trip on the short on the drying ground and could only finish third.

He shapes like he will be worth a chance over 2m 6f or even 3m on the evidence of this run.

Now the 7-year-old could have reached his class ceiling but for me it’s too early to rule out further progress when he’s stepped up in distance.

Gowiththeflow – Ben Pauling

Put in a career best effort to finish runner-up to Erik Le Rouge in the Sammy Bill race. The drying ground suited the 7-year-old who had beat Paisley Park in a novice hurdle at Doncaster back in February 2018.  

A winner over 2m 7f at Market Rasen over hurdles he should stay further and there are races to be won over fences with him off his present mark.

Notre Pari – Olli Murphy

The 6-year-old who broke his maiden tag over hurdles at the 5th attempt, when winning a Class 2 handicap hurdle at Aintree last month, was a strong favourite for the Lanzarote Handicap Hurdle despite an 8lb rise in the ratings.

Not fluent at couple of hurdles in the early stages which meant jockey Barry Geraghty had to wake him up to keep him in contention. I’m not sure it worked as intended as the gelding raced too keenly after.

He looked set for the places when taking a heavy fall at the last. Now the drying ground may not have been in his favour but there’s no doubt he’s got a good engine and provided his confidence isn’t hit by this fall he’s worth another go.

King Of Realms – Ian Williams

Could have been expected to run better on his seasonal reappearance when only 11th of 13 at Ascot 50-days ago. This was a better effort from the 8-year-old who helped to set a good gallop and ran well for a long way, before fading into fourth.

A good jumper of a fence, last season, he should strip fitter for this run. There are races in the son of Kings Theatre, especially when his stable is in better from.

Sunday January 12^th

Kelso

Ami Desbois – Graeme McPherson

Returning from a short break. The 10-year-old helped set a decent gallop on heavy ground. Headed by eventual winner Big River two out he could have been expected to fade out of contention, but he battled on all the away to the line to finish second.

This performance wasn’t far of his best over fences. At his best when able to dominate from the front he will have had a hard race in testing ground but there are races in him when his stable hits form.

It’s probably worth noting he’s 0 wins from 15 runs 5 placed in Class 3 (0>£10k) or higher races but 6 wins from 13 runs 46% 10 placed 77% +11.61 in Class 3 (0<£10k) or lesser races. Sunday’s race was his right level.

Cheers

John

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Hi all,

As promised, here’s another Cheltenham Festival ante-post betting preview. So far, have got Defi Du Seuil (10/1) for the Champion Chase and Global Citizen (20/1) for the Arkle Novices Chase.

Today, I’m adding another two each way selections to the Cheltenham Festival portfolio. 

Cheltenham Festival 2020 Ante Post Selections

Wednesday March 11th

Champion Bumper

On Monday December 30^th the going at Haydock wasn’t as testing as the official going description and the times suggests it was good to soft, rather than soft.

The final race of the card was the NHF race and produced a taking winner in Ask A Honey Bee. The 6-year-old, trained by Fergal O’Brien, was having first start since winning a Southwell bumper 240-days previously. He ran out an easy winner in a good time. He will make up into a good hurdler but surely connections will keep him to bumpers for now. Give the time he produced; connections will surely have one eye on the Champion Bumper for the horse.

I have had a nibble at 50/1 for the Festival and that price is still available with Bet365. Ladbrokes were clearly more impressed with the selections performance as they have him at only 16/1. There will be worse 50/1 shots at this years festival.

1pt each way – Ask A Honey Bee – 50/1 @ Bet365

Sunday January 5th saw the latest renewal of the Grade 1 Lawlor’s Novice Hurdle at Naas.

It’s a race where the form normally can be relied on although the last ten winners who raced in a Grade 1 on their next start all lost. Which might concern supporters of the winner of this years race.

On the other hand, if you had backed the first three home on their next start you would have made a profit of £9.86 to a £1 stake and seven went to win on their next start in Grade 1 & Grade 2 company.

This year’s race was won by exciting novice and unbeaten Envoi Allen. The 6-year-old’s win divided opinion. Some pundits were not impressed whilst others, me included, feel he only seems to do what’s required to win his race.

I also think the first three home are all top class. The runner-up Elixir D’Ainay is also top class, beaten 3 ½ lengths, he gave the winner a real race and was only seen off at the last. I wouldn’t be surprised if connections try to avoid Envoi Allen and drop the horse in distance and head for the Supreme Novices Hurdle at the Festival.

Seven lengths, behind the winner, in third was Longhouse Poet. The 6-year-old was done for a bit of pace when Elixir D’Ainay & Envoi Allen went for home coming to three out. However, he stayed on well all the way to the line. A step up to 3m looks the way to go with the son of Yeats. A winner of a point over 3m he’s also closely related to two winners at around 3m. He looks an ideal type for the Albert Bartlett.

Verdict: I think this year’s Lawlor’s Hurdle was a strong race and the best novice hurdle we have seen so far this season in Britain & Ireland.  Envoi Allen will take some beating in the Ballymore Hurdle at Cheltenham. For which he is a short-priced favourite. I want to be with Elixir D’Ainay going forward but it’s hard to say which race Willie Mullins will go for with this lad. That leaves the third Longhouse Poet who looks and ideal contender for the Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle for trainer Martin Brassil who trained last years Ballymore winner.

Friday March 13th

Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle

1pt each way – Longhouse Poet – 25/1 @ Bet365 & William Hill

There will be more additions to the portfolio over the coming weeks.

Cheers

John

Hi all,

Captain Chaos ran a brave race from the front and almost snatched the Classic Chase but had to settle for a place at the finish. All in all, a frustrating Saturday with one and maybe two winners rejected at shortlisting.

Not the strongest of Sunday’s but I have one selection running at Kelso.

Kelso

3:00 – Big River was a recent eyecatcher, travelling a lot better in the first time cheekpieces when brought down in the in the Scottish Borders National here last month. Drop back to 2m 7 ½ f doesn’t look an obvious positive as he stays much further and can hit a flat spot in his races.  However, his record at Kelso -5 wins from 7 runs +12.71, including two wins over C&D means he always needs respecting around here. Drops in class today and the single digit field could be in his favour, four of six career wins have come in field sizes 8 or less.

1pt win – Big River – 11/2 @ Bet365

Looks like another quiet week on the selections front but I will be putting up another ante post angle either Tuesday or Wednesday.

Cheers

John

Hi all,

It seems ages since there were any selections but the decision to concentrate on the big races only, paid off last Saturday with a 16/1.  It’s normally quiet at this time of the season with the big action centred around the Saturday’s anyway.

Today, there are three valuable handicaps spread around Warwick, Kempton & Fairyhouse. Let’s begin Saturday’s betting preview with the Classic handicap Chase at Warwick.

Warwick

3:00 – McCoy Contractors Civil Engineering Classic Handicap Chase (Grade 3) – 3m 5f

Last year’s winner & third Impulsive Star & Crosspark both run again. Impulsive Star’s form figures on three subsequent starts are an unappealing PPP. However, it means the 10-year-old has dropped to just 4lb higher than 12 months ago. Gets the first-time blinkers today and if you are willing to forgive his three runs this season then he would be on a competitive mark. The going was also good last year, and today’s softer ground may favour last years third. Crosspark went on to win the Eider Chase on his next start last season and finished runner-up in the Scottish Grand National off 2lb lower. Vulnerable to any progressive horses in the field and will do well to finish ahead of Impulsive Star if that one was to reproduce last years run.

The Conditional arguably comes into the race with the best form. A winner at Cheltenham in October on soft ground he improved further to finish runner-up to the De Rasher Counter in the Ladbroke Trophy at Newbury on his last start. He’s 5lb higher now but is very much on the upgrade and looks a worthy favourite.

Kimberlite County finished runner-up in the Becher Chase at Aintree. He seemed to enjoy the Grand National fences that day and if he can replicate that form back on a conventional track, he’s a major player that’s for sure. Might be better off a longer lay off.

Le Breuil finished 7^th in the Becher Chase. He travelled well through the race and will be all the better now, especially as trainer Ben Pauling’s horses are going much better now. Top-weight 11-12 will be tough to overcome but the trainer opts to take 7lb off his back which bring him into contention.

Bobo Mac comes into the race in the form of his life. A winner at Ludlow on his seasonal reappearance the 9-year-old put in a career bets over fences when runner-up at the same venue 24-days ago. Came up against an improver that day and is 5lb higher in a better race today.  Still he remains a contender if in the same form as last time.

Captain Chaos was beaten just ¾ length by Takingrisks in the Rehearsal Chase two starts back finishing one place ahead of the useful Top Ville Ben. That’s strong form which makes him a contender, but he did pull up in the Welsh Grand National on his last start. In his defence it’s not the first time he’s run poorly at Chepstow Three winners of this race in the past 9 years have won this race after running in the Welsh Grand National and all three failed to complete in that race – 3 winners from 14 runners +22.5 4 placed. . This track should suit him better and he will enjoy the soft ground. He just needs to jump better than he did last time but if he does and he stays the 3m 5f he will be there or thereabouts.

Verdict: The Conditional isn’t the most exciting of selections, but he will be tough to beat after his Ladbroke Trophy run. Bobo Mac is in good form and if he stays today’s longer trip is a player. Captain Chaos has each way claims on his Rehearsal Chase second and if you forgive his Welsh Grand National run.

1pt win – The Conditional – 4/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

0.5pts each way – Captain Chaos – 16/1 @ Bet365 (paying 3 places ¼ odds) or 16/1 @ Betway (paying 4 places 1/5 odds)

Kempton

2:40 – Unibet Lanzarote Handicap Hurdle (Listed Race) – 2m 5f

The Lanzarote Hurdle doesn’t have the prestige it once had but it’s still attracted a field of 14 handicap hurdlers.

Notre Pari is a short-priced ante-post favouriteat around 5/2.The 6-year-oldbroke his maiden tagat the 5^th attempt when winning a Class 2 handicap hurdle at Aintree last month. It was a decisive success and he was strong at the finish over 2m 4f. Today’s extra furlong shouldn’t be a problem and he showed he can go right-handed when runner-up at Market Rasen two starts back. Up 8lb but goes well with juice in the ground and remains open to further progression.

Burrows Edge one of two runners for Nicky Henderson, who has won the race twice since 2010, reverts to hurdles after falling on his chase debut at Ludlow 24-days ago. That’s not an ideal preparation for a race like this but the drying ground is in his favour and he posted two of his best effort’s over hurdles over C&D in Feb/March last year. Drying ground is a positive and he must be high on the shortlist.

Larkbarrow Lad is another who will be suited by a drying ground. He returned to action in the autumn in good form winning the Fixed Brush Hurdle Series Final at Worcester on his last run 80-days ago. The absence shouldn’t be an issue as he’s gone well fresh in the past. First run since a wind-op and is 8lb higher in the handicap now. Shouldn’t be far away if returning at the same level as form as when last seen.

Verdict: Again, Notre Pari isn’t the most inspiring picks from a price perspective but he’s an improver and looks the one to beat.  Burrows Edge needs respecting given trainer Nicky Henderson’s record in the race and Larkbarrow Lad has a likeable profile and the form of the Philips Hobbs stable means he’s got to be considered.

1pt win – Larkbarrow Lad – 9/1 @ Betway or 8/1 @ Coral

Fairyhouse

2:10 – Dan & Joan Moore Memorial Handicap Chase (Grade A) – 2m 1f

Sixteen have been declared for a competitive looking handicap chase.

Duca De Thaix and Blazer were first and third in this 12 months ago. Duca De Thaix showed up well to finish third here last time. He’s 6lb higher than 12 months ago but Sean O’Keeffe takes off 5lb so he races of a competitive mark and should be spot on fitness wise after two starts this season. 

Blazer looks to have a good chance of finishing ahead of Duca De Thaix this time as he’s 4lb better off for a 1/ ¼ lengths. Unlike his old rival this is his first start for 343-days. However. he has a decent enough record off a 121+day layoff – 1 win from 4 runs 3 placed – including when finishing runner-up in the Galway Hurdle in 2018. Mark Walsh takes the ride and the 9-year-old looks set for big run again.

Avenir D’une Vie, stablemate of Duca De Thaix, is the ante post favourite the 10-year-old beat his stablemate decisively here 42-days ago. Duca De Thaix will likely be fitter today but I fancy his stablemate can finish ahead again, even though he’s 8lb higher now. Two winners of this race from two runners won that Fairyhouse race before winning this. Just his second start since joining Gordon Elliott stable and there could be more to come despite his age.

Verdict: Avenir D’une Vie deserves to head the betting and shouldn’t be far away even off 8lb higher than last time. The Willie Mullins trained Blazer has form when returning from an absence and goes well at the track.

1pt win – Avenir D’une Vie – 4/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

1pt win – Blazer – 7/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

Other races:

Kempton

1:35 – Mercian Prince has won the last two running of this race and has been given a good chance by the handicapper of getting the hat trick. The first-time visor has been enlisted and if it has the desired effect, he won’t be far away.

Sammy Bill is now 2 from 2 over fences and won over C&D on his chase debut back in November. He’s been raised 11lb, but he’s handicap chaser on the up and will be hard to beat. His weight rise means Cap St Vincent who was 4^th behind Sammy Bill at Aintree last time could get closer.

1pt win – Mercian Prince – 6/1 @ Bet365

3:15 – Just eight go to post for this Class 2 handicap chase but it’s attracted a decent field.

On the Blind Side beat Talkischeap over C&D in a novice chase last February. The 8-year-old disappointed when fancied in the Ladbroke Trophy at Newbury but ran much better when runner-up to Riders On the Storm at Ascot last month. He came up against an improver at Ascot and his handicapped to win. The smaller field will also suit as well slightly better ground than last time. 

Touch Kick looked an improver when winning at Fakenham on his seasonal return in October. He then disappointed in the Grand Sefton over the National fences 35-days ago. Today’s smaller field will be in the 9-year-old’s favour, as all his six career wins have come in field sizes 11 or less.

Walt won a better handicap chase over C&D 11 months ago, off 4lb lower. Showed his well being when winning at Wincanton two starts back. Drier ground would probably suit the 9-year-old better, but he can’t be totally dismissed.

King Of Realms could have been expected to run better on his seasonal reappearance when only 11^th of 13 at Ascot 50-days ago. The 8-year-old had ended last season when making all to win at Warwick in March, off 2lb lower. Normally a good jumper of a fence a reproduction of his Warwick win would put him into the mix here and he could get an uncontested lead to.

1pt win – King Of Realms – 8/1 @ Bet365

Cheers

John

Hi all,

My first notebook of 2020.

It’s been a quiet on the betting front this week which I expected. The best of the weeks action takes place over the weekend. 

On Saturday it’s Lanzarote Handicap Hurdle Day at Kempton and at Warwick it’s the Classic Handicap Chase along with two Graded races all part of a seven-race card.

As ever before all that let’s have look back at last week’s action starting on New Year’s Day.

Wednesday January 1^st

Cheltenham

There was some high-class racing at Cheltenham producing some good performance and a race that produced the most exciting finishes of the season.

Champ, the 4/11 favourite came down when in the lead two out in the Grade 2 Dipper Novices Chase. Connections will be looking for a confidence booster before the Cheltenham Festival for the 8-year-old.

The finish of the season came in the Grade 3 Paddy Power Handicap Chase. Just two noses separated the first three home. Oldgrangewood got the nod from the judge from Saint Calvados & Lalor.

The form of the race looks strong and the first three home can win more races.  Of the three Lalor bounced right back to form in the first time cheekpieces. Both the 8-year-old’s best runs to RPR’s have now come at Cheltenham and he will surely be heading to the Spring Festivals with hope of a win. A winner on good ground he’s also versatile going wise.

Both the 4^th Ex Patriot & 5^th Mister Whitaker home look up to winning races on their runs here. The latter has a good record at Cheltenham and should come on for his first start of the season. The one to take out of the race though is Ex Patriot.

Ex Patriot – Ellmarie Holden

The Irish raider was given a good sight of the Cheltenham fences. He travelled well for a long way and was still bang there at the last. A drop back in trip could suit the 7-year-old who would be a contender for a strongly run Grand Annual at the festival. He’s been dropped 1lb for his 4 ¾ length defeat and remains one to be interested in for valuable handicap chase.

Kilbricken Storm – Colin Tizzard

The 9-year-old won the Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle at the 2018 Cheltenham Festival. Last season was a bit of a write off after winning on debut over fences. Probably needed the run when 8^th of 11 here at the last meeting. Ran well to two out, on his first start since a wind-op, before fading out quickly once headed at the last. 

This was much better finishing 3^rd of 12 behind winner Skandiburg.  Retains plenty of ability that’s for sure and can remain competitive in staying handicap hurdles.

Exeter

Sir Psycho – Paul Nicholls

Sir Psycho looks a juvenile hurdler worth following. A winner at Wincanton his second start over hurdles back in October, ran out the easy winner of the novice hurdle. Taking advantage of the age allowance the soft ground held no terrors for him as he ran out an easy winner in what was a good time for the day at the course. The handicapper has had his say raising the 4-year-old 16lb in the ratings after this win.

Life will be tougher now but he’s going the right way and the Fred Winter Handicap Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival could come into consideration. A race the trainer has won three times since 2010.

Saturday January 4^th

Sandown

Eldorado Allen – Colin Tizzard

Previous C&D winner Eldorado Allen returned from a 392-day break. The 6-year-old was making his handicap hurdle debut off a mark which looked stiff on what he’s achieved when last in action. Although, the suspicion was that he was capable of being high class in the sphere. Held up, he made steady headway it looked like jockey Robbie Power had produced him to win his race coming to the last. However, he couldn’t hold off the eventual winner Mill Green in the final 50yds.

This was a great effort considering he was trying to give 11lb to the winner and he now heads to next month’s Betfair Handicap Hurdle at. He’s been put up 7lb for this effort but still has a big chance at Newbury.

Lingfield

Brigham Young – Ed Walker

Gained his first win at the 10^th attempt when putting in a good performance to land the 7f handicap. The time was good for the grade and the 5-year-old appreciated the return to the distance on his first start for 102-days.

Clearly effective over 7f, the son of Street Cry has also run well at Kempton and given he was strong at the finish could well be worth another go back over a mile.

The handicapper has raised him 4lb for this success, but he looks like he can remain competitive off his new mark at this sort of level.

Cheers

John

Hi all,

Sir Ivan was a very welcome winner at Wincanton on Saturday, especially at a BOG 16/1. Today it’s the first National of 2020 the Sky Sports Racing Sussex National Handicap Chase at Plumpton which is raced over a marathon 3m 4 ½ f.  It’s that race that provides us with today’s selections.

Plumpton

Eleven are set to go to post for this year’s running of the Southern National and it looks a tight handicap with no less than nine runners separated by just 2lb on Racing Post Ratings.

2:40 – Vinnie Lewis won this race in 2018 off 6lb lower. He ran like his seasonal reappearance when only 6^th of 10 in the Durham National back in October. The 9-year-old was then pulled up in the voided London National last month. Ticks the all-important boxes marked course and ground and remains capable of winning this race again if bouncing back to from.

The Caller won the Durham National before never travelling and pulling up in the Southern National at Fontwell 49-days ago. Surely his running at Fontwell wasn’t the 9-year-old’s true form. Now 5lb higher than at Sedgefield but remains on a competitive enough mark and would be a big danger of replicating his that Durham National run.

Garrane is 0 wins from 8 runs over fences but he’s on attractive mark based on the best of last seasons form when finishing runner-up to the likes of The Two Amigos & Glen Forsa. Well beaten on his seasonal return at Cheltenham (5/1) but last time seemed to bounce back to something like his best when third at Haydock 32-days ago. Leading from the off he was headed three out but still stayed on all the way to the line.  Today’s extra distance suits and the first time cheekpieces could eke out that bit more improvement in the 8-year-old.

Trainer Linda Jewell won this race on 2015 and she saddles Uallrightharry. The 8-year-old gained his second win over fences when winning here over 3m 1 ½ f on his seasonal reappearance in October and looked set for another win when making mistake and unseating his rider at the last here 34-days ago. He remains unexposed over staying trips and today’s extra distance could bring out more improvement. Up 2lb for the last time in a better race but he’s going the right way.

Verdict: The Callerwould be interesting if he was back to his Sedgefield form. Garrane threatens to be better horse over this sort of marathon trip. I can’t leave out previous race winner Vinnie Lewis or the steadily improving Uallrightharry.

1pt win – Vinnie Lewis – 7/1 @ Bet365

1pt win – Uallrightharry – 10/1 @ Bet365

Cheers

John

Hi all,

Not the most exciting of Saturday’s compared to recent months.  The ITV Racing cameras are at Sandown & Wincanton this afternoon.  The highlight of the Sandown card is the Veteran’s Handicap Chase at 3:00 which is being run this year in honour of the late Houblon Des Obeaux who lost his life at the course last month.

All in all, it looks a quiet day on the betting front for me.

Sandown

3:00 – A field of 14 runners go to post for the veterans’ chase

Jepeck goes well from the front and could get an uncontested lead, likes jumping right-handed and handles soft ground. All three starts this season have been over hurdles and looks to have been laid out for this race. Plenty to like about his chance.

Dark Flame returned from a 736-day break to run in Houblon Des Obeaux to three lengths back in November before running in the void London national here last month, finished second. Get’s the first time cheekpieces today and is just 1lb higher than last time. Despite being an 11-year-old, he’s just had the 12 career starts. Can get behind in his race and hopefully the headgear will allow him to travel better in the early stages of the race.  Goes well around here, will be suited by the drying ground and should go close.

Shanroe Santos has winning form round here and was only beaten a short head at Carlisle 20-days ago and can race off the same mark today. In the mix and has each way claims.

Vieux Lion Rouge showed he was no back number when winning at Chepstow on his seasonal reappearance, off 1lb lower.  He remains on a winnable mark on his best form and it’s worth noting he’s 3 wins from 3 runs in January and he’s 5 wins from 7 runs going right-handed. I have always felt he was best off a lay off but his record when racing within 30-days is a respectable 4 wins from 10 runs. Consistency isn’t his strong suit and he was well beaten in the Becher Chase be hard to leave out of calculations and trainer David Pipe did win this race in 2016.

Evan Williams saddles Kings Odyssey & On Tour.  They both have chances with the latter racing in the first-time visor today having finished third in this race 12 months ago. Was runner-up, beaten a neck on his seasonal reappearance at Chepstow behind Vieux Lion Rouge. Has a similar chance to the Pipe horse. Not so good next time at Aintree but could bounce back with Richard Johnson in the saddle.  Kings Odyssey won a qualifier at Warwick on his last start but has 5lb more to carry today.  He’s unexposed at 3m but I’m not so sure going right-handed is what he wants.

Verdict: It should be cracker of a race. Jepeck’s three runs over hurdles suggests connections have been protecting the 11-year-old’s mark for this. Vieux Lion Rouge comes with risks attached as to his well being but is hard to rule out. Kings Odyssey looks capable of a bold show as does stable mate On Tour who was third in this last year. Dark Flame should be there or thereabouts if the headgear works and rates a bet.

1pt win – Dark Flame – 6/1 @ William Hill

0.5pts each way – Vieux Lion Rouge – 14/1 @ Bet365 (paying 3 places ¼ odds)

3:35 – Gunnery was an impressive winner at Doncaster just six days ago but the ground will be softer this time and he goes right-handed here. Has a favourites chance but from a value perspective I prefer to look elsewhere.

Colin Tizzard saddles previous C&D winner Eldorado Allen who returns from a 392-day break but did win first time up last season. Handicap debut off a mark which looks stiff on what he’s achieved so far off a mark of 145 but the 6-year-old could still be high class in the sphere. Ainchea is the other Tizzard runner. He returns from an even longer absence of 770-days, but he won a novice hurdle over C&D 2-years ago so no issues with the track for the 7-year-old. Handicap hurdle debut today and looks on a workable mark if he’s fit for his return to action.

Blu Cavalier 3^rd of 14 in the rearranged Betfair Hurdle run at Ascot in February. Well beaten in a Grade 2 at Ascot on his seasonal reappearance in November. The 9-year-old stripped much fitter when bouncing back to form to win a handicap hurdle at Doncaster last month. Up 4lb but Ben Jones takes off a valuable 5lb which negates his rise in the ratings and despite his age could be up to winning a race like this.

Verdict: The pace could be strong which will test the fitness of the Tizzard horses, although Eldorado Allen is a very interesting runner on his handicap debut. Blu Cavalier has claims as he could get the race run to suit.

1pt each way – Blu Cavalier -12/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

Now a couple from Wincanton but both come with risks attached.

Wincanton

2:05 – A few quirky customers in this 1m 7 ½ f handicap chase. None more so than Admiral’s Secret. A C&D winner in December 2018 he was also in the process of running a big race back over C&D in February when falling three out. Twice refused to race last season, which is a worry, but he did at least race when runner-up on his seasonal return at Taunton. Not sure about the form of the Victor Dartnell stable but the 9-year-old is in with a good chance if he decides he wants to race, and it is a big if.

1pt win – Admiral’s Secret – 13/2 @ Bet365

2:40 – Air Horse One has been hard to keep sound and the 9-year-old has only had four starts under rules. Could be well handicapped on the form of his 3^rd of 14 behind Hang In Three at Exeter 74-days ago. Yet to race on ground as soft as he’s likely to face here so underfoot conditions are a big unknown.

Sir Ivan is another who comes with risks attached. The 10-year-old hasn’t won since winning a jumper’s bumper race on the all-weather at Kempton in March 2018. Showed he was still capable of winning in the sphere when runner-up at Exeter last March, off 4lb higher. Was also in the process of running a good race on his seasonal return at Plumpton when unseating his rider three out. Pulled up last time here a month later which surely wasn’t his true running and trainer Harry Fry is in much better form now. Gets the first time cheekpieces now and even under-top weight must be considered a big contender, if anything like his best.

1pt win – Sir Ivan – 9/1 @ Bet365 & Betway

Cheers

John

Hi all,

I’m writing this on the morning of New Year’s Eve, so I have no idea how my final selection of 2019 fared.

By the time you read this it will be a New Year and a new decade. A New Year means new resolutions. My resolution for 2020 is to concentrate solely on the better class races both flat and NH. Let’s hope I can stick with it and not be tempted by the mediocre fare that dominates the sport.

There’s plenty of racing today but most of it is moderate. However, there’s a strong card of racing at Cheltenham which will pay host to one of its largest attendances outside of the festival. Musselburgh also a competitive looking New Year’s Day card with two Class 2 handicaps the feature races of a six-race card.

Cheltenham

12:50 – Singlefarmpayment is an equine case study on how to throw away winning opportunities. He’s hasn’t tasted success for three years although he’s run plenty of good races in between. He normally comes to the last travelling like a winner but will find nothing once asked for his effort. The 10-year-old must be produced literally on the line if he’s to win. All his best form has come at Cheltenham and he’s dropped down to a tempting handicap mark. Well this is probably his easiest assignment in some time, and he does get to race in the first time cheekpieces which could make all the difference. I’m sure he will confound us all and land a race like this. Will it be today?

1pt win – Singlefarmpayment – 9/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

2:00 – If you read my Daily Punt column you will know that I have already backed Kalashnikov for this race at 5/1. The top-weight is the class horse of the race and has a great chance on a track & distance that suit. On the negative side is that the race hasn’t cut up and it’s turned into what looks one of the strongest handicaps of the festive period.

Ballyhill is another suited by C&D and won this race two years ago. He’s dropped down to a tempting handicap mark and trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies has won three of the last ten renewals of the race.  On the negative side he’s 1-34 in the past 14-days.

Saint Calvados won here over 2m two starts back. He likes soft ground but his stamina for 2m 4 ½ f will be severely tested in this company.

Mister Whitaker won over C&D at the April Meeting, he’s 4lb higher now and this is his seasonal reappearance although he did win first time up last season.

Ex Patriot is an intriguing Irish raider. The 7-year-old is 2 wins from 6 runs over fences and put in career best when third to Battleoverdoyen in a Grade 2 at Punchestown 45-days ago. This former useful hurdler has developed into a good chaser. He does improve to win a hot race like this but he;s got time on his side and could be capable of the required progress.

Cepage runner-up to Frodon in the 2018 Caspian Caviar Gold Cup finished 4^th, beaten less than 3 lengths, in this season’s race off 12lb higher. Runner-up to the progressive Riders Onthe Storm on his seasonal reappearance. The 8-year-old’s effort last time was a career best and he can’t be dismissed on a C&D that suits. Trainer runner’s not going great in recent days.

Verdict: I have made some sort of case for half of the field and I still may not have mentioned the winner that how tough this race looks. Kalashnikov has a touch of class and was just caught in the final strides at Newbury. Saint Calvados remains on a fair mark but his stamina for the trip will be tested here. Ex Patriot has solid each way claims while Cepage can’t be ruled out over C&D.

1pt win – Kalashnikov – 4/1 – Gen

1pt each way – Ex Patriot – 8/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

2:35 – Fourteen hurdlers are set to go to post for this 3m handicap.

Ask Dillon a useful novice hurdler, albeit outclassed in the Ballymore Hurdle here at the festival, ended last season when with a win at Exeter in April. The 7-year-old returned from a 255-day absence to finish 3^rd of 11 on his handicap debut at Chepstow 5-days ago. If this race doesn’t come to quick this lightly raced hurdler can be expected to improve.

Skandiburg made it 3 wins from 7 runs over hurdles when winning at Aintree back in November. Up 6lb for that success the 6-year-old seemed to relish the step up to 3m that day and was at his strongest at the finish. First run on a track like Cheltenham but he’s progressive and if he handles the course looks set to go close.

The Jam Man has been placed successfully to win his last four starts putting a career best when winning a valuable handicap hurdle at Navan last month. The handicapper has hiked the 7-year-old up 16lb for that last success which makes like tougher but his trainer thinks he could be a Stayer Hurdle contender so his new mark could still underestimate the horse. Not without a chance if he hasn’t reached his class ceiling.

Verdict: It’s hard to say with confidence that The Jam Man improvement has ended, and he’s got each way claims. Preference though is for Skandiburg who looks a saying hurdler going the right way.

1pt win – Skandiburg – 5/1 @ Paddy Power & William Hill

Musselburgh

1:40 – Cracking Destiny was a comfortable winner here over an extended 2m 37-days ago. He’s been raised 10lb for that 10-length success but he maybe capable of defying a big hike in the ratings as that was the 7-year-old’s first start since joining the Alistair Whillans stable. This is a big step up in class for him, but he travels strongly in his races and looks capable of holding his own in what doesn’t look the strongest race for the grade. Best form has come on good or good to soft so wouldn’t want the ground to ease further but can give his backers a good run for their money if it doesn’t.

Sporting Press was runner-up to Cracking Destiny two starts back and has since finished runner-up to the improving Defi Sacre who has won twice since. Races from 2lb out of the handicap here but is on a good mark and does get a 9lb pull with Crack Destiny. He’s not won for maximum confidence, but he’s won over C&D in the past. In fact, the 7-year-old’s record here is 4 wins from 10 runs +20 8 placed at the track. The hood which has been left on his last two starts returns today and he must be rated an each-way contender of you fancy the likely favourite.

1pt win – Sporting Press – 9/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

2:15- This Class 2 handicap looks the stronger of the two feature races of the Musselburgh card and attracted a field of 12 hurdlers.

John Quinn who won the race in 2012 saddles a couple of lively contenders in Ashington & Project Bluebook. The former has won two of his three starts over hurdle. The last of those wins came over C&D. Handicap debut today and looks more than capable of holding his own in this company. Project Bluebook seems to have been around for ever but he’s only a 7-year-old. Twice a winner over C&D he’s not the easiest to win with but should go close and never be ruled out.

Three previous winners of this also stand their ground. Normal Norman won this 12 months ago off 8lb lower. A winner on the all-weather at Kempton last month he should be spot for this fitness wise and is well suited to sharp right-handed tracks over hurdles.

Sir Chauvelin won this race 2-year-ago off 4lb lower. He’s 3 wins from 8 runs over hurdles but this will be his first run over the obstacles 620-days. Has run well on the all-weather on his last two starts so no issues with his well-being. Looks an interesting contender, on a track that suits, although he probably wouldn’t want the ground to ease further.

Aristo du Plessis won this four years ago. The 10-year-old hasn’t been the most consistent of horses since, but his mark is falling. He made a promising seasonal reappearance at Wetherby a track he seems to now go well at but failed to build on that promise when only 5^th back at that venue 15-days later. There was money for the old boy that day, sent off 5/2 favourite so he must be showing something at home. The trainer has had couple of winners in the past 14-days after a quiet spell. Vulnerable to younger legs but now down to his lowest handicap mark for 5-years and can’t be ruled out if on a going day.

Newtown Boy has won two of his three starts this season and ran out a gutsy winner at Haydock over three furlongs further last month. Can be ridden prominently which is no bad thing around here. Up 4lb for his last success but could be vulnerable to more speedier types on this drop back to the minimum trip.

Verdict: Another race where a good case can be made for half of the field. Ashington’s inexperience over hurdles will be tested here but he could be on a good mark. It may pay to side with one of the previous race winners like Normal Norman or Sir Chauvelin.

1pt win – Normal Norman – 9/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

After a busy few days, that’s me done now until Saturday. Let’s hope we can end with a winner or even two.

Cheers

John

Hi all,

As promised yesterday here’s another ante-post betting preview. Today I’m adding to my Cheltenham Festival betting portfolio. So far, I have just got Defi Du Seuil at 10/1 for the Champion Chase but racing over the festive period both sides mean we can add another one.

Cheltenham Festival 2020 Ante Post Selections

Tuesday March 10th

Arkle Chase

The Grade 2 Wayward Lad Novices’ Chase at Kempton has been won by the likes of Dynamite Dollars, Cyrname, Altior, Dodging Bullets and Sprinter Sacre in recent seasons. Five of the last 8 winners of the race went on to win the Arkle Chase at the Cheltenham festival and I think this year’s winner Global Citizen can go on to Grade 1 success over fences.

Global Citizen useful over hurdles built on his first start over fences at Carlisle with an impressive success at Kempton. The 7-year-old racing in the first-time tongue tie made all and showed he was a battler to hold off his rivals between the last two fences. Given his relative inexperience over the larger obstacles he jumped well and won in a good time. Granted he’s unproven on an undulating track, just the two starts on such tracks, best form over hurdles has come on flat tracks. Still he represents cracking each way value at 16/1 or bigger. If he was with a bigger name trainer, he would be shorter in the betting.

1pt each way – Global Citizen – 20/1 @ Betfred or 16/1 – Gen

There will be more additions to the portfolio in the coming weeks of the New Year.

Cheers

John