Hi all,
I seem to have gone
down with yet another cold. This wet and mild winter just seems to go on and
on.
Well no Atlantic
storms to worry about this weekend, although is still likely to be showery and
windy over the weekend and Chepstow Saturday’s card was been abandoned on
Friday morning due to a waterlogged track. So we haven’t broken free of the
winter weather just yet.
Kempton hosts it’s best jumps cards outside King George Day. There are three Grade 2 races; the Pendil Novices’ Chase, The Adonis Juvenile Hurdle, the Dovecote Novices’ Hurdle. Add in the rescheduled Grade 2 Kingwell Hurdle from last Saturday’s abandoned Wincanton card and the 3m Betway Handicap Chase and racegoers have an eight-race card to enjoy.
The Clerk of the
Course at Kempton is even hoping to have good somewhere in the going
description which has been a rarity at British racecourses since the turn of
the year.
Elsewhere at Newcastle
it’s the historic Eider Chase which this year is being run over one furlong
longer than usual. A stamina sapping 4m ½ f is now 4m 1 ½ f and with the going
being described as heavy, soft in places I don’t think there will be many
finishers in this year’s race.
It doesn’t look the
strongest of renewals of the race either with highest rated horse in the field
being 136. Whether the ground has played a part or not it’s a poor turnout
quality wise for a Class 2 handicap with £50,048 on offer to the winner.
For all weather
fans, it’s the Group 3 Betway Winter Derby at Lingfield which looks a match between
Bangkok & Dubai Warrior.
I will get started
at Kempton.
Kempton
12:40 – An interesting 17 runner handicap hurdle
gets the card underway. Downtown Getaway returns from wind surgery and
needs respecting on his handicap debut. Palmers Hill is returning from
451-day absence. Up 9lb since winning a Cheltenham handicap hurdle but remains
open to more improvement. Connections will be hoping the going doesn’t ease too
much before post time. Midnightreferendum was an excellent third to Dame
De Compagnie at Cheltenham 70-days ago. The short break won’t be problem as she’s
2 wins from 2 runs when racing 61 to 90-days since her last start. Capable of
getting into the money if the ground isn’t to soft. Polish has really taken
to hurdling, finishing runner-up on his debut before going to win at Ludlow
17-days ago. Strong at the finish last time and maybe even better over further
than 2m 5f. Handicap debut off what looks a workable mark for a trainer among
the winners.
1pt win – Polish
– 15/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
1:15 – Betway
Pendil Novices’ Chase (Grade 2) – 2m 4 ½ f
Master
Tommytucker a winner here
over 2m 2f in November. Was still in contention when falling at the 15th
in the Grade 1 Kauto Star Novices’ Chase when stepped up to 3m here on Boxing
Day. Lightly raced for his age, the 9-year-old’s form figures now read 11F1F.
if he stands up he’s the most likely winner.
2:25 – Betway
Kingwell Hurdle (Grade 2) – 2m
Elgin returns for the first time since July 2018
and is having his first run over hurdles since finishing 5th of 11
in that years Champion Hurdle. The 8-year-old won this race two years ago and trainer
Alan King has aimed the horse at it all season so he shouldn’t lack for fitness.
3:35 – Betway
Handicap Chase (Grade 3) – 3m
It may not be the
race it once was, but it seems to have attracted an above average field,
quality wise for this year’s renewal. Looking at the 14 runners you can make a
case for most of the field.
Paul Nicholls won
this race in 2015 with Rocky Creek and he saddles four top-weight Black Corton,
last year’s third Adrien Du Pont, Sametegal & Romain De Senam. The first two named look his main
contenders.
Adrien Du Pont, a previous C&D did best of the hold-up
horses when third 12 months ago. He’s 6lb lower this time around and just 1lb
higher than for his last win. Big chance at the weights and the drying ground
has come at the right time for the 8-year-old.
Black Corton is another previous C&D winner. He’s
been given a 63-day break since finishing a brave 4th of 10 behind
Regal Encore at Ascot in December. The break should have done him good and he’s
edging down the weights slightly. Vulnerable to any improvers in the field but
he looks sure to run his race and his prominent style of running is suited to
the track.
Highway One O
One made a bold bid over
C&D when 3rd of 11 over Christmas, was only beaten 1 length that
day and is just 1lb higher now. Pulled up at Cheltenham on Trials Day but
clearly wasn’t right that day. If you forgive him that run, he looks a shade
overpriced although there maybe stronger stayers over the 3m.
Kildisart has struggled on heavy/soft ground on his
three starts this season but it’s worth remembering that he looked a handicap
chaser on the upgrade when winning a 3m handicap chase at the Aintree Grand
National meeting last season, off 3lb lower. The sounder surface will suit the
8-year-old and he’s not without a chance if back to form.
Double Shuffle made a bold bid in this race last year when
runner-up, beaten just a length off 4lb higher. Three of the 10-year-old’s,
four best RPR’s have come over C&D so he always needs respecting even
though he’s now reached the veteran chase. No doubt trainer Tom George will
have aimed him at the race again and connections fingers will be firmly crossed
that the rain stays away.
Whatmore is an intriguing contender. He’s just had
the four starts over fences winning on good ground at Market Rasen in May. Hasn’t
been disgraced on his last two starts in novice company, most latterly when 3rd
of 7 in a Grade 2 at Warwick last month. The ground has been plenty soft enough
on the last two occasions so he’s another who will be suited by the ground going
good to soft. Jumping will be tested on his handicap debut but if he can cut
out the errors won’t be far away.
Verdict: Plenty in with a chance as you would expect.
Paul Nicholls has a strong hand with Adrian Du Pont and Black Corton. If
Whatmore’s jumping holds together he can go close on his handicap debut. Better
can be expected from Highway One O One who has each way claims.
1pt win – Whatmore
– 9/1 @ Bet365
1pt each way –
Highway One O One – 14/1 @ Bet365 (paying 3 places ¼ odds) or 14/1 @ Ladbrokes
(paying 4 places 1/5 odds)
Newcastle
2:45 – Vertem
Eider Handicap Chase – 4m 1 ½ f
Not the best
renewal of the race given the highest rated horse is just 136. Twelve go to
post but how many of them will complete the marathon trip? I’m underwhelmed by
the quality of the field but it doesn’t make the puzzle any easier to solve.
Shanroe Santos has dropped 1lb below his last winning mark
and won last season’s Southern National at Fontwell over 3m 3 ½ f so is a
proper stayer, should stay this far, who’s well suited to soft & heavy
ground. Trainer Lucy Wadham is among the winners this week and 11-year-old looks
a solid each way contender.
Alminar is 7lb higher than when winning on heavy
ground at Chepstow last month. The 7-year-old is capable of more improvement. It’s
a marked step up in trip for him today although he shapes like he should be
suited by it. Should get a good ride from Danny Cook.
Financial
Outcome, trained by Rebecca
Curtis, left his previous hurdle/chase form behind when winning a handicap
chase at Doncaster two starts back. Was still in the race when making a bad mistake
four out, jockey did remarkably well to stay in the saddle. That was a race
ending mistake so in the circumstances his third placing was a good effort. He’s
had win surgery since that Uttoxeter run and unlike most of the field has the
potential for a bit more improvement if he stays the trip.
Verdict: Financial Outcome could be well suited to
this marathon trip and remains on a winnable mark. Shanroe Santos would normally struggle in a
race like this but has each way claims on ground that suits.
1pt each way – Shanroe
Santos – 14/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes (both paying 3 places ¼ odds)
1pt win – Financial
Outcome – 9/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
Lingfield
3:50 – Spirit Warning
– Returned from a 147-day
break with a decent effort to finish 5th of 7th over
C&D 14-days. He was only beaten 1 ½ lengths that day and shaped like he
would be sharper for the run. All his four of his career wins have come within
30-days of his last start which suggests he can go well.
1pt win – Spirit
Warning – 8/1 @Bet365
Cheers
John