Author: John Burke

Hi all,

Slaney East ran poorly at Down Royal in the Ulster Oaks. But I thought coming into the straight I thought Sunchart was going to hold on and win the Ulster Derby but was nabbed in the 50yds by Red Kelly.

Onto Saturday and Ascot is centre stage with the King George VI And Queen Elizabeth Qipco Stakes the day’s feature race. It has attracted a disappointing field of just four runners but they are all Group 1 winners.

Enable is the short price favourite to gain her third win in the race in the past four years. The other three runners are trained by Aidan O’Brien are led by last season’s International Stakes winner Japan and last years Epsom Derby winner Anthony Van Dyck & Irish Derby winner Sovereign. A small but select field then which will hopefully make for a good contest.

Besides Ascot, there are also decent supporting cards at York & Newmarket. It’s all part of a bonanza double header for ITV racing viewers who are covering racing on both Saturday & Sunday.

The weather forecasters are suggesting that there could be prolonged and heavy showers at both Ascot & Newmarket. Not for the first time in recent weeks the weather could play havoc with today’s selections.

It’s the start of a week of high-class racing which continues on Sunday and through the rest of the week at Goodwood & Galway.

I shall start this betting preview at Ascot.

Ascot

2:25 – Moet & Chandon International Stakes (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) – 7f

Twenty go to post for this competitive handicap.  

Blue Mist heads the market. He’s clearly got the ability to win a handicap like this and goes well here but in all truth he’s too short for me.

Eshaasy travelled strongly but failed to get home in the Britannia Handicap over a mile at the Royal Meeting. The drop back to 7f at Sandown suited him last time as he managed to hold onto win by a nose. Up 4lb for that win but George Rooke takes off 5lb which negates his rise in the weights. Three-year-olds are, however, 0 wins from 23 runners 4 placed in the race in the past 10 years.

Edbury did best of those drawn low in the Buckingham Palace Handicap over C&D when finishing 6^th. He won her last season over a mile and looks nicely drawn this time. Might need the ground to ease a bit further but still very much a contender.

Shelir was 5^th in the Buckingham Palace. A shade disappointing when only 6^th at Haydock on his next start. The drop back to 7f looks a positive and looks capable of winning a handicap like this.

Arbalet, like Shelir trained by David O’Meara, put in a career best in this race two years ago off 13lb higher when with previous trainer Hugo Palmer. Yet to win on his four starts for David O’Meara but was only beaten a neck at Redcar three starts back and she showed he was still in form when 4^th of 19 at York 7-days ago.

Mutamaasik ran a cracker to finish third in the Buckingham Palace. Was then sent off 100/30 favourite for the Bunbury Cup two weeks ago but beat only one home. Return to C&D will hopefully see the 4-year-old in a better light and if you draw a line under his Newmarket run then he’s got a great chance here.

I tipped Blackheath in my Wednesday Daily Punt column as the each- way value in the race and I still think he is. However, he does need quick ground to be seen at his best and any rain wouldn’t be welcome.

Chiefofchiefs relished the drop back to 6f when winning the Silver Wokingham at the Royal Meeting.  Up to 7f shouldn’t be an issue and he clearly goes well on Ascot’s straight track but he is 5lb higher and rain would be a slight concern, as his form figures on good in Britain are 11311.  Buick stays in the saddle and I expect the 7-year-old to remain competitive.

Verdict: Eshaasy has a good profile and is trained by John Gosden. But the 3-year-old race stat is a worry. You know that the O’Meara pair of Shelir & Arbalet will pop up in a handicap like this one day. Blackheath is a big player but wouldn’t want the ground to ease too much further. Surely Mutamaasik didn’t get give his running in the Bunbury Cup and is better judged on his third in the Buckingham Palace.

1pt win – Mutamaasik – 9/1 @ Bet365

0.5pts each way – Blackheath – 25/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes (both paying 5 places 1/5 odds)

1pt win – Chiefofchiefs – 10/1 @ Bet365

4:10 – Western Duke won this race last year off just 1lb lower. Has to put an underwhelming reappearance effort on the all-weather behind him but trainer Ian Williams has his horses in much better from now 3 winners from 11 runners in the past 7-days.

Frontispiece won here as juvenile and is just 1lb above his last winning mark. Ryan Moore stays in the saddle and his form figures when riding the 6-year-old are 1132. Ran a nice prep for this when 2^nd of 8 at Newmarket 14-days ago and should be sharper for that run and is 2 wins from 2 runs when racing between 8 & 15 days since he last run.

1pt win – Frontispiece – 9/1 @ Bet365 & Paddy Power

1pt each way – Western Duke – 14/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

5:20 – Sleeping Lion goes well very on good to firm going, form figures 1321. He’s also placed on all six of his starts in Class 3 company. Nudged up 2lb for his 2^nd of 6 at Newcastle two weeks ago. Should be there or thereabouts at the finish but maybe more of a place contender again.

The bang in form Solo Saxaphone comes into the race looking for a four timer and although he’s now 10lb higher he may not have reached his class ceiling just yet.

The booking of Frankie Dettori for Scaramanga is an eyecatching one and the fitting of the first time cheekpieces could make all the difference for the 5-year-old who’s got plenty of ability.

Speedo Boy won this in 2018, off 1lb higher and that was the 6-year-old’s last win. He’s 2 wins from 3 runs over today’s distance, form figures 311 and is 2 wins from 5 runs on good ground. He will be all the better for recent seasonal reappearance at Newmarket, Finished 2^nd of 15 in a valuable Newmarket handicap on his second start after a lay off last season. On a good handicap mark and the form of the Ian Williams stable is much better now.

1pt win – Speedo Boy – 9/1 @ Bet365 & Ladbrokes

York

1:30 – There’s a bit of theme today, as it’s another Ian Williams horse that interests me here. The veteran Shady McCoy rolled back the years when winning for the first time in three years with a decisive success at Haydock last month. Has been given a 47-day break to freshen him up which is a plus given he’s 1 win from 25 runs 5 placed when returning from a 15 or less day break. Up 6lb but has won off much higher marks in the past so the previous C&D shouldn’t be underestimated.

1pt win – Shady McCoy – 9/1 @ Bet365 & Paddy Power

3:50 – Tukhoom bounced back to form when winning over C&D 7-days ago. He’s up 6lb for that success which makes life harder but he’s got a good record when racing within 7-days of his last start 3 wins from 7 runs 5 placed.

If the rain arrives Autumn Flight is a big contender. The 4-year-old bounced back to form with an eyecatching 4^th of 12 at Haydock 7-days ago. Races off the same mark here but probably needs the rain to arrive to ease the ground.

1pt win – Tukhoom – 6/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

1pt win – Autumn Flight – 8/1 @ Bet365

4:25 – Roundhay Park seemed to return to form when finishing 5^th of 18 over C&D behind Tukhoom last week. He didn’t help his cause with a slow start but ran on well. The 5-year-old’s losing now stands at 20. That said he’s dropped down to a tempting mark and can cash in when all the cards fall right.

Look Out Louie is now 5lb below his last winning mark and was finishing race off strongly when 4^th of 12 at Catterick 10-days ago and has to be considered a big contender.

Medicine Jack is another who dropped down to a winnable mark and ran really well when 2^nd of 12 at Ayr to an improving 3-year-old 11-days ago. The first-time visor replaces the blinkers today and he’s another with claims.

1pt win – Roundhay Park – 4/1 @ Betfair Sportsbook & Paddy Power

1pt win – Look Out Louie – 5/1 @ Betfair Sportsbook & Paddy Power

Cheers

John

Hi all,

I’m off to Down Royal for a couple selections today.

Down Royal

2:35 – Slaney East shaped with promiseon her racecourse debut when 4^th of 12 behind Snow at Leopardstown last month and build on that when beating 11 rivals in a Fairyhouse maiden 29-days ago. More improvement to come surely from the filly on her handicap debut although she may be even better over further. Trainer Jim Bolger saddled the winner in 2013 and looks to have a decent chance of another win in the race.

1pt win – Slaney East – 11/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

3:45 – Sunchart finished runner-up on her juvenile debut behind Santiago before going on to win a soft ground Tipperary maiden. Was found to be lame after finishing last of 5 in the Derrinstown Derby Trial on good to firm on his seasonal return. He was sent off just 9/2 for that race which shows the high regard he’s held by connections. Not disgraced when 8^th in the Irish Derby and drops into handicap company here. Today’s ground will help and the softer it gets the more like his chance.

1pt win – Sunchart – 8/1 @ Bet365

Cheers

John

Hi all,

Ty Rock Brandy sneaked into the places at Naas yesterday. I have two selections from Leopardstown for you today.

Leopardstown

4:30 – A competitive seventeen runner 7f handicap and I like a couple of runners.

Airgead made it 2 wins from 4 runs at Leopardstown when winning over C&D 22-days ago.  The strong pace suited him that day, has won over mile, as he got up in the final strides. If he gets a good gallop to chase again, he won’t be far away off just 4lb higher.

The other I like is Cartesienne. The lightly raced 4-year-old looked much improved for the switch to a new yard when beaten just a short head at Cork 18-days ago. Nudged up 2lb for that effort but should be competitive if in the same form here.

1pt win – Airgead – 8/1 @ Bet365

1pt win – Cartesienne – 10/1 @Bet365

Cheers

John

Hi all,

Amir Kabir ran well to get the each way money so not too much damage done on the day.

I have two running in the Naas (5:15)

Naas

5:15 – Ty Rock Brandy is a mare who wins more than her share of races on the all-weather – 5 wins from 18 runs but she remains a maiden on turf after 18 starts. That said she’s got a couple of decent turf efforts that suggest she can be competitive. Built on her seasonal return, when 3^rd of 14 at Navan 13-days ago. Can go well again if stall 20 isn’t an inconvenience.

Teddy Boy is 1 from 20 but has improved with each of three starts this season and was 3^rd of 15 here over 6f 18-days ago. Drop back to the minimum trip shouldn’t pose to many problems for the 5-year-old. Sole win came on softer ground than he’s likely to get here but he looks on a mark he can win off when all the cards fall right. Trainer Edward Lynam has his horses in winning form and has a good record with his handicapper here over 5f & 6f – 5 winners from 15 runners 33% +13.38 10 placed 67% with those returned 7/1 & under.

0.5pts each way – Ty Rock Brandy – 12/1 @ Bet365 (paying 4 places ¼ odds)

1pt win – Teddy Boy – 8/1 @ Bet365

Cheers

John

Hi all,

No winners on Sunday but not too much damage done to the betting account either given Saturday’s profit.  

Taking a longer view since racing’s resumption the service has made a 62pts profit to advised profits which would be higher if you take into account it was struggling for the first two weeks of June.

All in all, a pleasing five weeks with a solid profit banked.

There’s a competitive looking nine race card at Sandown this evening and I have three selections from there.

Sandown

6:40 – Enemy is sure to be popular after his 4^th of 22 behind the smart Khaloosey in the Britannia Handicap at Royal Ascot.  The step up to 1m 2f should suit the colt on breeding. There’s plenty to like about his chance in the Class 3 handicap apart from his price.

At the prices the suggestion is the Roger Charlton trained Amir Kabir. The gelding has improved with each of his three starts and made a winning handicap debut at Wolverhampton. Up 5lb but that doesn’t seem to harsh as he seemed to win with more in hand than the final winning margin of a neck suggests and he can improve further for the step up to 1m 2f. Trainer Roger Charlton is a tidy – 10 winners from 29 runners 34% +26.24 15 placed 52% with his 3-year-old handicappers at Sandown in the past five years.

1pt each way – Amir Kabir – 13/2 @ Bet365

7:15 – Setarhe overcame a poor start on her racecourse to debut to win at Newmarket. She was then pitched into the Group 3 Albany Stakes at Royal Ascot. Just like at Newmarket she was slowly away. Doing her best work at the finish she ran on into second behind the impressive winner Dandalla. The slightly quicker surface is in her favour this evening, as should the step up to 7f.

1pt win – Setarhe – 7/2 @ Bet365

7:45 – Mancini hasn’t been disgraced on his three starts for new trainer Ian Williams and is back to a winning mark. Well suited to a sound surface. A return to front running tactics can see the 6-year-old go close, especially if he gets an uncontested lead out in front.

Kaloor hasn’t really built on the promise of his first two career starts. But the 4-year-old has run with a bit of promise on both starts for new trainer David Menuisier over a mile and 1m 2f.  Stays 1m 4f and the step up to 1m 6f looks worth a go on pedigree. The booking of William Buick looks an interesting one for a trainer who has a good record with his runners in Sandown handicaps – 8 winners from 22 runners 36% +35.1 14 placed 64%.

1pt win – Kaloor – 8/1 @ Bet365

Keep an eye on your inbox for any selections over the coming days.

Cheers

John

Hi all.

Sinjaari stormed home to win the John Smith’s Cup at York and Even So relished the step up to 1m 4f in landing the Irish Oaks. All in all, a cracking day profit which could have been better if Gulliver hadn’t been nabbed on the line by Romantic Proposal in the Scurry Handicap.

After last Sunday we have some better-quality racing today from York, Newbury with the Super Sprint (2:50) the feature race of a seven-race card and the Curragh.

At first glance plenty catch the eye today but there don’t seem to be the solid opportunities that were available yesterday.  

York

2:30 – Acclaim The Nation likes to be at the head of affairs, no bad thing here over C&D, and has to be respected on his ½ length second to Celsius two starts back. The drying ground is in his favour. The problem is that he could have competition for the lead which slightly tempers enthusiasm.   

Mighty Spirit a useful juvenile might just have needed her seasonal return when 5^th of 21 behind Art Power at Royal Ascot.  Seems ground versatile and should be sharper today. Drawn out wide in stall 13 isn’t probably ideal

Arecibo is going to pop up in one of these 5f handicaps it’s just a case of when. He’s on a bit of a losing run but bounced back to form when 5^th of 11 at Doncaster two starts ago. The 5-year-old didn’t help his cause when slowly away at Ascot last time and didn’t get the best of runs on a couple of occasions when making his effort in the final couple of furlongs.  The forecast strong pace will suit and if the cards fall right, he can win this.

Verdict: I’m expecting a big run from Mighty Spirit if her wide draw isn’t an inconvenience. Arecibo will need luck in the run but the anticipated strong pace will suit.

1pt win – Arecibo – 11/2 @ Bet365

3:35 –The booking of Ryan Moore for Ulshaw Bridge is an eyecaching one (first ride for the yard in the last 5-seasons).  The 5-year-old has gone 13 runs since his last win at Doncaster in June 2018 but has run several decent enough races in the meantime. Made a satisfactory enough return to action when 5^th at Haydock two start back but wasn’t able to back that up here over 1m 2 ½ f 10-days ago. Drop back to a mile a likely plus and he won here as 2-year-old.

Poet’s Dawn has decent form around here and is just 1lb higher than when winning here over 1m 1f last June. Might prefer slightly easier ground though.

Alfred Boucher has returned to action with a pair of solid efforts at Newmarket and Marco Ghiani takes off a handy 5lb and he shouldn’t be far away at the finish.

Spiorad was well placed to win three handicaps during a productive 2019 campaign. Not totally out of this but needs to bounce back from two underwhelming performances this season.

Straits Of Hormuz is the least exposed runner in the field, just the four career starts. The 3-year-old has won his last two starts including on his stable/seasonal debut for Jedd O’Keeffe at Haydock last month. He came from behind that day and showed a nice change of gear to win his race inside the final furlong. Up 6lb, but is going the right way. Stall 20 is a only slight concern but apart from that he’s a solid contender.

Verdict: Plenty to like about the claims of 3-year-old Straits Of Hormuz apart from stall 20. Alfred Boucher is a solid contender. The booking of Ryan Moore suggests a big run is expected from Ulshaw Bridge.

1pt win – Ulshaw Bridge – 6/1 @ Bet365

4:10 – Excellent Times won a C&D handicap last August and bettered that effort when winning at Thirsk the following month off today’s mark. Has been down the field on both starts this season and may to need another run to find her feet. That all said she’s handicapped to win again when finds her form and has each way claims.

0.5pts each way – Excellent Times – 18/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook (both paying 5 places 1/5 odds)

Newbury

Besides the Super Sprint the highlight of the Newbury Cup is the valuable Marsh Cup Handicap (4:00)

4:00 – Carnwennan didn’t enjoy the tacky ground when a well beaten favourite in this 12 months ago. He was set too much to do but was doing his best work at the finish when 6^th of 18 in the Northumberland Plate 22-days. That was the 5-year-old’s first run since February and he should be spot fitness wise here. Provide the ground is good or quicker I’m expecting a big run from the gelding in the first time cheekpieces.

Rajinsky was just touched off at Ascot last time he should continue to run well although he’s 5lb higher in a better race.

Just Hubert is another who was set too much to do in the Northumberland Plate. Be can’t be totally dismissed being just 2lb above his last winning mark but needs to bounce back from a couple of low key runs this season.

Selino was a notable improver last autumn for stepping up to 1m 6f/ 2m. The 4-year-old showed he had trained on when putting in a career best when runner up to Fujaira Prince at Royal Ascot. The return to 2m looks a positive and although he’s been raised 5lb he’s progressive and looks the one they all have to beat.

Verdict: Selino is going the right way and is a deserved favourite here. If the ground dries out further, I’m expecting a big run from Carnwennan in the first-time headgear.

1pt win – Selino – 9/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

1pt win – Carnwennan – 11/1 @ Bet365 & Paddy Power

Curragh

2:35 – She’s A Babe has gone 16 starts since her last win, although she was first past the post at Dundalk back in October. Bounced back to form when running on all the way to the line to finish 3^rd of 14 at Bellewstown 17-days ago. That sharp tracking didn’t seem to suit so a stiff 7f on a galloping track should be in her favour. This looks a hot race but she’s got each way claims.

Royal Highness was another who didn’t look totally at home at Bellewstown last time and was three places behind She’s A Babe. She’s another who will appreciate a return to a more galloping track. There is a handicap in her of her present mark of 81 but she may need an extra furlong to do so.

Galtree Mist was twice a winner last season over 7f and shaped well enough when 6^th of 18 here over 6f on her seasonal return nine days ago. Should be all the better for that run and shouldn’t be far away although she was a winner at the Galway Festival last year and I wonder if that’s her ultimate target again.

Verdict: Royal Highness has a race in her off her present mark. Galtree Mist should be competitive and She’s A Babe has each way claims if building on her recent Bellewstown run.

0.5pts each way – She’s A Babe – 20/1 @ Bet365 (paying 4 places ¼ odds)

Cheers

John

Hi all,

York takes centre stage today with the betting highlight of an eight-race card being the John Smith’s Cup (2:30). There’s also a decent supporting card at Newbury. Over in Ireland it’s the fourth Irish Classic of the season with the latest running of the Irish Oaks.

Just the four races come under today’s microscope.

York

2:30 – John Smith’s Cup Handicap (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) – 1m 2 ½ f

Tom Segal (Pricewise) thinks those at the front end of the betting the likes of Caradoc, Solid Stone & Harrovian are vulnerable and I tend to agree with him. However, of those three named you have to respect the claims of Caradoc. He will be all the better for his seasonal reappearance 6^th of 13 at Epsom and is lightly raced enough to think he can progress further as a 4-year-old. All his best form has come on good or good to firm so any ease in the ground is a bit of an unknown but at least we know he goes well at York.

My three against the field are:

Afaak won last years Hunt Cup off 2lb lower and wasn’t disgraced when a 4-length 5^th in this race 12 months ago. Only 7^th in this years Hunt Cup but he probably needed the run and better can be expected today.

Baltic Baron was 5^th in this years Hunt Cup.  The 5-year-old doesn’t win very often but he’s talented enough to pop up in a big field handicap like this sometime this season. Was unlucky in the run when 5^th in the Golden Mile at Goodwood and a reproduction of that run would see him go close. Stamina for today’s trip has to be proven but he shaped at Ascot like he will stay.

Sinjaari was competitive in some hot 3-year-old handicaps last season, including when beaten just a short head by Headman in the London Gold Cup and 3^rd of 11 at Goodwood.  First run since a winter gelding operation and a solid case can be made for him on the best of last season’s form. The same can be said for stablemate Desert Icon who was an easy winner at Newmarket 20-days ago.

Verdict: Of those at the front end of the market Caradoc looks fairly solid enough. Afaak, Baltic Baron & Sinjaari all have each way claims in an open looking race.

0.5pts each way – Baltic Baron – 16/1 @ Bet365 (paying 5 places ¼ odds)

0.5pts each way – Afaak – 22/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook (both paying 5 places 1/5 odds)

0.5pts each way – Sinjaari – 16/1 @ Coral (paying 5 places 1/5 odds)

3:05 – At the prices I’m happy to take a chance with Alpha Delphini.  The 9-year-old returns to the track for the first time since finishing runner-up to Battaash at Haydock in May 2019.  A dual C&D winner, the last of those wins came when holding off Mabs Cross to win the Group 1 Nunthorpe Stakes in 2018. If anywhere near his best form would take the beating back down to Listed company.

1pt win – Alpha Delphini – 8/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

Curragh

6:15 – Paddy Power Scurry Handicap (Premier Handicap) – 6f

Typically, competitive renewal of the Scurry. Plenty of live contenders among the seventeen declared runners.

Blairmayne seems to reserve his best for the Curragh, twice a winner over C&D last season. He was 3^rd of 18 here 9-days ago and has place claims again

Gulliver relishes these big field handicaps. He was 4^th of 22 in the Wokingham at Royal Ascot and although he’s been nudged up 1lb the excellent Gavin Ryan takes off a handy 5lb which makes him a strong contender.

Ice Cold In Alex 2^nd of 16 in a valuable mile handicap at Cork 6-days ago won’t be inconvenienced by the drop back to a strongly run 6f. He can be relied upon to run his race and although he needs all the cards to fall right, if they do, he can win this.

Ardhoomey isn’t as good as he once was but he retains plenty of ability as he showed when 2^nd of 14 over two starts back and 4^th of 18 here over C&D, 8-days ago. The 8-year-old is vulnerable to younger legs but is on a winnable mark.

Romantic Proposal was a notable improver over 7f last autumn. The 4-year-old will be sharper for her seasonal reappearance here over 7f three weeks ago and she’s an interesting contender having her first run over 6f.

Tommy Taylor is on a long losing run which goes back nearly three years. However, he’s shaped well on both starts since racing resumed in Ireland both over 7f. Drop back to 6f shouldn’t be an inconvenience for the 6-year-old who’s on a winnable mark and has each way claims.

Verdict:  Gulliver with a useful 5lb apprentice in the saddle is feared. Ice Cold In Alex can never be ruled out in races like this. The veteran Ardhoomey is handicapped to win. Tommy Taylor has each way claims as has potential improver Romantic Proposal.

1pt win – Gulliver – 15/2 @ Bet365

1pt win – Ardhoomey – 10/1 @ Bet365

0.5pts each way – Tommy Taylor – 12/1 (paying 4 places ¼ odds)

7:15 – Juddmonte Irish Oaks (Group 1) – 1m 4f

Just eight fillies stand their ground for this year’s Irish Oaks and half of them are trained by Aidan O’Brien.

Ennistymon. has finished runner-up to Love in Epsom Oaks and Frankly Darling in the Ribblesdale on her last two starts. She continues to improve and wouldn’t be winning out of turn. 

Laburnum a daughter of Galileo won a Gowran Park maiden last month and improved on that performance when runner-up to Even So in the Naas Oaks Trial 14-days ago. There should be more to come from this progressive filly although on pedigree she’s not guaranteed to stay the Oaks trip.

No issues with the trip for another O’Brien improver Snow. A winner of the Group 3 Munster Oaks at Cork and a half-sister to Kew Gardens. There is a good chance that she hasn’t reached her class ceiling yet and she could turn out to be the best of the Ballydoyle contenders.

Likely favourite Cayenne Pepper was a high-class juvenile. She looks to have taken time to come to hand this season, but given that connections have always seen her as a middle-distance filly this race has probably been her target. Made a good seasonal reappearance finishing runner-up to Magical in the Group 1 Pretty Polly Stakes 20-days ago. Should be sharper for that run and the step up to 1m 4f can unlock more improvement. The daughter of Australia is the one they all have to beat.

Given the form of the Joseph O’Brien stable you can’t rule out New York Girl. Fourth in the Irish 1000 Guineas she was then pitched in to face the colts in the Irish Derby. Slowly away that day she could never get into the race after that but wasn’t disgraced in 7th. She’s better than that form and has each way claims back against her own sex

Even So had finished one place behind New York Girl in the Irish 1000 Guineas. Given her middle-distance pedigree she did well to finish as close as she did in fifth and was doing her best work at the finish. Sharper for her Guineas run of that run she showed a good attitude to hold off Laburnum at Naas last time. The step up to 1m 4f will bring out even more improvement in the daughter of Camelot and provided the ground isn’t too quick on Saturday has solid each way claims.

Verdict: On form this looks between Ennistymon & Cayenne Pepper. However, the likes of Snow and Laburnum have the look of Aidan O’Brien improving fillies as does the Ger Lyons trained Even So who should relish the step up to 1m 4f.

1pt each way – Even So – 12/1 @ Bet365

Cheers

John

Hi all,

Well I didn’t miss out in not putting up Ice Cold In Alex up yesterday, although he did finish second at Cork.

Unusually for a Monday there are a couple of interesting handicaps.

Windsor

1:35 – A cracking 6f sprint handicap for a Monday afternoon.

Belated Breath will be suited by the drying ground and will be sharper for her seasonal return at Haydock and she’s 2 from 2 on her second run of the season. She’s also got a good overall win strike rate 6 wins from 19 runs 10 placed. Osin Murphy is back in the saddle and he’s 6 wins from 10 rides +24.63 when partnering the filly. Plenty of positives about this previous C&D winner chance here.   

Open Wide is also at his best on a sound surface the faster the better for him. He hasn’t won the number of races that his ability suggests – just 4 wins from 35 runs but he has placed on 17 occasions. Last year he beat all but Khaadem in the Goodwood Stewards Cup and arguably put in a career best when third to the Swindler at Ascot last September off 3lb higher. His hold up style makes him hostage to fortune in his races but given a strong gallop he should be finishing race off stronger than most.  He had a couple of runs this season so should be spot on fitness wise.

Beyond Equal is a speedy sort who can be a keen goer as he showed when a 1 ¾ length second to Highland Dress on seasonal return at Newmarket last month. The 5-year-old had a productive 3-year-old campaign winning four times. Found life tougher last season but did manage to win at Bath over 5 ½ f last June.  The drying ground is in his favour and he’s got each way claims.

Verdict: I find it hard to split Open Wide and Belated Breath. The former looks well handicapped on his best form but needs a race run to suit and to be produced on the line to win. Belated Breath is a consistent filly who wins her fair share of races and will be all the better for her seasonal reappearance and can go close. Beyond Equal made a pleasing return to action at Newmarket and is another who can run well.

1pt win – Open Wide – 11/2 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook

1pt win – Beyond Equal – 10/1 @ Bet365

Kempton

7:15 – Vibrance made it 4 from 4 over C&D when winning 22-days ago. The handicapper has raised her 6lb for that success but she won with a bit in hand that day and may be able to defy her rise in the weights.  That said she’s a best priced 15/8 so it maybe worth looking for an each-way alternative.

Jersey Wonder won over C&D 12-days ago. He was always in a prominent position in a race at a moderate gallop that day. A 3lb rise isn’t excessive and could be open to a bit more improvement.

Pianissimo was in good form on the all-weather last winter and beat Jersey Wonder over C&D last November. At the weights he will struggle to confirm that form with that one and his three starts since racing resumed have been poor.

Dazzling Rock is the most interesting of the nine runners. The lightly raced 5-year-old clearly hasn’t been the easiest to keep sound as this will only be his ninth career start and his first run since winning at Chelmsford in April 2019.  Goes well off a lay off and is probably still on a winnable mark but may find competition for lead here.

Verdict: It’s hard to look beyond C&D specialist Vibrance but Jersey Wonder & Dazzling Rock have claims should the favourite run below par.

1pt win – Dazzling Rock – 8/1 @ Bet365 & Paddy Power

Cheers

John

Hi all,

I was pleased with yesterday Establish (10/1 BOG) was a good winner at Newmarket. That was the only winner but Sir Busker, San Donato & Mountain Peak finished second at decent each way prices in their respective which helped to boost the betting bank. I think if the ground hadn’t had dried at out at Newmarket Sir Busker would have won the Bunbury Cup. Sadly, on good ground he wasn’t able to reel in Motakhayyel who got first run.

As I mentioned yesterday, we have been spoilt with the quality of Sunday racing since racing resumed last month.  Today’s its back to normal. Plenty of racing both sides of the Irish Sea but it lacks the quality of recent weeks.

My ‘cliff horse’ Ice Cold Alex has almost tempted me in again at Cork (5:15) but he will need plenty of luck in the run from stall 3 and I was disappointed with his effort at the Curragh last time. Apart from him nothing appeals today so there are no selections.

Cheers

John

Hi all,

When Red Force One won the Summer Hurdle it looked like it was going to be another good day for the service but sadly it didn’t turn out to be the case. Still not much damage to the betting bank on the day.

The Group 1 July Cup is the highlight of an eight-race card on the final day of Newmarket’s July Festival. There’s also a good supporting card at Ascot with the Group 2 Summer Mile the highlight of another eight-race card.

We have been spoilt with the quality of Sunday racing since racing resumed from lockdown so tomorrow’s fare will come as a bit of a shock. I don’t see any potential selections tomorrow so these will be the final ones of the weekend.

I will begin Saturday’s betting preview at Newmarket.

Newmarket

1:50 – Haqeeqy has won both starts this season, both over 7f at Yarmouth and under a penalty on the Rowley Course 22-days ago.  Has been given a decent mark of 92 for his handicap debut. Open to more improvement and should stay a mile.

Establish improved for the step to a mile as his pedigree suggested when an excellent 3^rd of 12 at Lingfield two starts back.  Didn’t have to reach that level of form when winning a Bath novice 16-days ago.  The son of Australia is going the right way and although he’s bred for a bit further, he travels well enough in his races to think he can win a handicap like this over a mile.

1pt win – Establish – 17/2 @ William Hill

3:35 – Darley July Cup Stakes (Group 1) – 6f

Thirteen have been declared for this race and it looks a high-quality race with impressive Commonwealth Cup winner Golden Horde taking on Diamond Jubilee winner Hello Youmzain.

Hello Youmzain won the Group 1 Haydock Sprint Cup last September and added a second Group 1 win to his career when winning the Diamond Jubilee at Royal Ascot on his seasonal return. Always in a prominent position it looked like eventual third Sceptical had his measure when taking a slight lead, a furlong out but his credit Hello Youmzain battled back to lead close home and hold of the late challenge of Dream Of Dreams. Diamond Jubilee winners racing in a Group 1 race and racing between 16 to 30-days are 4 winners from 14 runners 29% +8.75 7 placed 50%.

Sceptical re-opposes again and has a chance of reversing form on this slightly speedier 6f, especially if the ground dries out.

Khaadem was 1 ¾ lengths back in fourth that day. He was too keen for his own good that day but was only run out of the places in the final 100yds. He’s won over C&D in the past and today’s bigger field could enable him to get more cover. On good or quicker ground, he would need respecting. Interesting that jockey Jim Crowley come here rather than ride Mohaather at Ascot.

Golden Horde a high-class juvenile showed he had trained on well from two to three with a decisive win the Commonwealth Cup and is open to more improvement.

Of the rest Threat travelled strongly but didn’t seem to stay a mile when 5^th of 7 in the Group 1 St James’ Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot. Drop in trip looks a wise one and he can’t be dismissed lightly although you would expect there would be a couple who might have a bit too much pace for him.

Verdict: Golden Horde could prove to be this seasons champion sprinter by winning this and has a favourites chance. If the going was good a win by Khaadem wouldn’t surprise. However, on the anticipated ground and at the prices it has to be the slightly underrated Hello Youmzain.  

1pt win – Hello Youmzain – 9/2 @ Bet365

4:10 – bet365 Bunbury Cup (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) – 7f

A typically competitive renewal of the Bunbury Cup with 18 declared to run. The ante post betting has been dominated by the Hamdan Al Maktoum pair of Motakhayyel & Mutamaasik who were first & third in the Buckingham Palace Handicap at Royal Ascot and they could dominate again. 

Raising Sand wasn’t disgraced when 8^th of 23 in the Hunt Cup and did best of those racing over the far side. The softer the ground the better for the 8-year-old back down to 7f. Looks better drawn in 16 today but is vulnerable to any better handicapped horses.

Tomfre is 2 wins from 2 runs, including C&D. The 3-year-old is ground versatile and ran a cracker to finish a short head second to Well Of Wisdom at Sandown last month. Raised 4lb he remains open to more progress and shouldn’t be far away.

Sir Busker is seeking the hat trick after wins at Newcastle & Royal Ascot. The last of those wins coming in the Silver Hunt Cup where he came with a powerful late run to lead in the shadow of the post. That was over a mile so he will need the anticipated strong pace dropped back a furlong in distance. Up 5lb for his Ascot win but the 4-year-old is going the right way and has to be high on the shortlist.

Arigato & Kasbaan were first & third in a 7f handicap on the Rowley course two weeks ago. Arigato is looking for a hat trick and should go well. Kasbaan a three-time winner on the all-weather was having his first start on turf for present connections and seemed fully effective on it. He might need a mile but a strongly run 7f and he could get in to the money. At the revised weights there shouldn’t be too much between the pair today.

Keyser Soze is rated 10lb better on the all-weather than the turf. The 6-year-old tends to be slowly away as he was when well beaten in the Buckingham Palace last time. However, he was only sent off 14/1 that day so someone thinks he can win a race like this on grass. Cieren Fallon takes off a handy 3lb and on a going day I could see him running into the money at big odds.

Verdict: The claims of Motakhayyel & Mutamaasik  are obvious but they look plenty short enough for me. Keyser Soze could easily pop up in a race like this. Dual course winner Tomfre is an improving 3-year-old who has to be respected.  If you like Arigato you can’t dismiss the claims of Kasbaan who’s more than three times his price in some places. It’s hard to say how the draw will pan out but if low numbers hold sway then don’t rule out Sir Busker who will be suited by a strongly run 7f on easy ground.

1pt each way – Sir Busker – 12/1 @ Bet365 (paying 4 places 1/4 odds)

0.5pts each way – Kasbaan – 33/1 @ Bet365 (paying 4 places 1/4 odds)

Ascot

3:15 – Mohaather was unlucky with how the race panned out when only 7^th to Circus Maximus in the Queen Anne at the Royal Meeting. He got no sort of run at crucial part of the of the race and would have gone close to winning with a clear run. The best is yet to come and he’s the one to beat.

Drying ground brings the consistent Marie’s Diamond into the mix. He was an excellent third in the Queen Anne could get an uncontested lead out in front.

Skardu was another not suited by the way the race was run in the Queen Anne. Fourth in last year’s St James’ Palace over C&D, the drier the ground the better for the 4-year-old but once again the forecast slow pace could be an inconvenience.

San Donato hasn’t fared well with draw in stall 10 but he’s the most intriguing of the 11 runners. The 4-year-old beat Hello Youmzain as a 2-year-old and ended his juvenile season with a win in a Listed race at Doncaster. Just the one run since October 2018 when 3^rd to Persian King in the French 2000 Guineas last May. He may end up being more effective over 7f but has each way claims if retaining his old ability.

Verdict: Mohaather is priced up on potential rather than form. Now he’s the most likely winner but looks short enough given he’s yet to conclusively prove a mile is his right trip. Marie’s Diamond will be hard to peg back if given an easy time up front. Despite his draw I like the claims of the unexposed San Donato, who like the favourite has to be prove a mile is his optimum distance, but is a fair each way price.

1pt each way – San Donato – 16/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook

3:50 – Arecibo has finished runner-up on both starts over C&D. Hold up style of running means he’s a hostage to fortune in his races but he’s capable of going close,

Aplomb has run very well here in the past over 6f but the drying ground isn’t likely to be in his favour as it wasn’t last time in the Silver Wokingham.

National Anthem is a progressive handicap sprinter who comes into the race looking for the four timer. His two wins have come on good to firm so the dryer the ground the better for the 5-year-old. In a better race here and up 4lb in the weights but may not have reached his class ceiling just yet on suitable going.

Ed Walker saddles a couple of strong contenders in Jonah Jones & Mountain Peak. Jonah Jones twice a winner as a juvenile when trained by Tom Dascombe. He seemed to lose his way last season and has switched to the Ed Walker yard. Gelded over the winter and dropping back to 5f for the first time, he ran a cracker to finish third to Celsius at Haydock last month. There should more to come from him this season. Mountain Peak was C&D winner as 3-year-old put in a career best on RPR’s when winning at Haydock 17-days ago. The handicapper has hiked the 5-year-old up 7lb for that success but it would folly to think he can’t defy if given his current form if he gets good or quicker going.

Lahore put in a career best when dropped back to 5f when winning at Doncaster two starts back. Never recovered from a slow start when down the field in the Gosforth Park Sprint, A strongly run race will suit and better can be expected from the 6-year-old returned to turf.

Wedding Date finished runner-up to Chairmanoftheboard at Windsor and just failed by a shorth head to catch Dark Regard at Newmarket 15-days ago. Both those runs came over 6f but a return to a stiff 5f could suit the filly.

Stone Of Destiny doesn’t win very often but Ascot is very much his track. A C&D winner last August off 1lb higher. The 5-year-old ran well for a long way when 6^th of 22 in the Wokingham at the Royal Meeting. He looked like was coming to challenge the eventual winner Hey Jonesy, a furlong out but couldn’t find any extra in the final stages. Drop back to 5f is a positive but is another who will probably need luck in the run.

Verdict: Plenty in with a chance in this nineteen-runner handicap. The Ed Walker pair of Jonah Jones & Mountain Peak are high on the shortlist. The anticipated strong gallop will suit the likes of C&D winner Stone Of Destiny, Arecibo and Lahore.

1pt each way – Mountain Peak – 14/1 @ Bet365 & Ladbrokes (both paying 4 places ¼ odds)

1pt win – Jonah Jones – 6/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

Cheers

John