Author: John Burke

Hi all,

Yesterday’s selection Billingsley was weak in the market before the race but was still in the lead when unseating Sam Twiston-Davies five out. It was too early to say whether he would have taken a hand in the finish, in what was an eventful race, but I don’t think he would have been far away if he had completed. Worryingly that his second successive non completion and his jumping is becoming a bit of a concern. For all that he remains on what looks a competitive mark.

In today’s post I have an ante post selections for Saturday. Plus, one from Naas this afternoon.

One for the weekend

The bookies have priced up eight of Saturday’s races.  I have had a look at a few of Saturday’s races and hopefully I have another Master Tommytucker for you. There maybe more weekend ante post selections tomorrow so watch your inboxes.

Warwick

2:25 – Ballymore Leamington Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 2) – 2m 5f

David Pipe trained Adagio won the Grade 1 Finale Juvenile Hurdle at Chepstow on Saturday and he looks to have another interesting hurdler in Make Me A Believer. The 6-year-old won a bumper at Chepstow last season and returned to action with a good second to the improving Bear Ghylls at Lingfield back in October.  The son of Presenting looked a useful prospect when winning a novice hurdle at Cheltenham’s December meeting. Given he’s pedigree suggests he needs further it was encouraging that he showed enough pace to win over 2m 1f last time.  The 2m 5f distance of this Grade 2 contest looks ideal for him and he also looks a decent bet at around 5/1.

2pts win – Make Me A Believer – 6/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

Wednesday racing

Naas

2:20 – Lawlor’s Of Naas Novice Hurdle (Grade 1) – 2m 4f

Recent impressive Navan maiden hurdle winner Bob Olinger. He looks capable of more improvement and looks worth the step up into Graded company.

Ashdale Bob comes into the race with the stronger form on his win in a Grade 2 at Navan. He might prove better over further but looks a solid contender and won’t be far away again.

Blue Lord showed a good attitude to win a Punchestown maiden over an extended 2m 50-days ago.  That looked a bare minimum for the 6-year-old and plenty of improvement can be expected for the step up in trip. He’s been quietly backed, at big odds, for the Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival. Trainer Willie Mullins has won this race five times since 2010. The selection has plenty to find on RPR’s with the first two but can win this.

1pt win – Blue Lord – 7/2 @ Sky Bet & Unibet

Cheers

John

Hi all,

Just a quick update as to what happening this week. There’s a decent card at Wetherby this afternoon with the highlight being a class 3 handicap chase (2:05).

On Wednesday it’s the rescheduled Grade 1 Lawlor’s Novice Hurdle at Naas (2.20). A race that was won last year by Envoi Allan and his way to success at the Cheltenham Festival.

Thursday Catterick takes centre stage with the latest running of the North Yorkshire Grand National Handicap Chase (2.40).

The Saturday big race caravan moves to Warwick. The feature races of a seven-race card are Classic Chase (3.00), the Grade 2 Hampton Novices’ Chase (1.50) and the Ballymore Leamington Novices’ Hurdle (2.25).

The ITV cameras are covering all the best of the Warwick action and three from Market Rasen as part of seven race programme.  Over the Irish Sea at Fairyhouse it’s the normally competitive Dan & Joan Moore Memorial Handicap Chase (2.15).

Tomorrow, I will be looking ahead to some of the weekend action and hopefully there will be a couple of ante post selections but first I have a selection from Wetherby this afternoon.

Wetherby

2:05 – Eclair D’Ainay made an impressive chase debut when winning at Chepstow 53-days ago. Both the second & third have won since so the form of that race looks solid. He’s up 14lb for that success and looks the right favourite.

The King Of May ran really well when a close-up third over C&D 16-days ago. That was slightly better race than this and he can race off the same mark here. More than capable of going close if in the same form as last time.

Billingsley takes my eye at a fair price. The 9-year-old won three of his four starts over fences and looked an improving handicap chaser. Ran well for a long way and was still in contention when falling four out on his seasonal return at Doncaster 31-days ago. It was good to soft last time and he’s a better horse on even deeper ground. He’s 4-6 on heavy and given he’s 0-5 on his first start of the season, he’s likely all the better for that run.

1pt win – Billingsley – 9/1 @ Sky Bet & Unibet

Cheers

John

Hi all,

Thankfully 2pt win ante post selection Master Tommytucker (5/1) and each way selection Castle Rock (6^th) saved the day on Saturday.

We have lost Naas due to the frozen weather but the meeting been rearranged for Wednesday. That leaves just Exeter and Southwell for punters to get stuck into.

Just the one interests me today.

Exeter

3:10 – Jockey Daryl Jacob Daryl Jacob landed a 3725-1 five-timer at Wincanton yesterday and I think he’s got another good chance here with Normandy Soldier. The 7-year-old has won a point in the past and last season won a novice hurdle (soft) at Hereford. Made his chase debut when 4^th off 11 at Taunton 45-day ago. It was unsatisfactory race in many ways. All the fences in the back straight were removed due to low sun. They didn’t go much of a gallop either and the race became a bit of a spring in the straight. Softer ground and a stronger stamina test will suit him today. Lacks experience of fences but a mark of 119 looks more than workable.

1pt each way – Normandy Soldier – 10/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook (paying 4 places 1/5 odds)

Cheers

John

Hi all,

Short and sweet this morning. Fingers crossed both Chepstow & Kempton pass precautionary inspections. ITV 4 are broadcasting a bumper ten races from both meetings and Wincanton. Given most other leisure pursuits are out of bounds.  Racing can enjoy being centre stage and offer people a bit of a distraction on a gloomy Saturday in January.

I put-up Master Tommytucker, Erik Le Rouge & Dominateur this week for races at Kempton & Chepstow to add to earlier Welsh Grand National ante post selections Bobo Mac & The Hollow Ginge.

Here are my thoughts on some of the races on ITV this afternoon.

Kempton

1:10 – Three of the 12 declared runners have first preferences elsewhere.

I’m not going to add anymore to the race to supplement to Erick Le Rouge although A Toi Phil would be interesting if he could return to anything like his best form when trained by Gordon Elliott.

1:45 – Two of the 15 runners in this 3m handicap chase have engagement’s elsewhere.

Commodore caught my eye earlier in the week but he would have been a stronger fancy on softer ground than he’s likely to get here.

Two For Gold struggled in the Ladbroke Trophy and probably didn’t stay 3m 2f. A return to 3m and slightly calmer waters will be in the 8-year old’s favour and he’s got solid claims.

Rocco must prove he stays a strongly run 3m but shaped well when 2^nd of 10 here over 2m 4f in November. He looks on a winnable mark.

Coo Star Sivola was well fancied (8/1) for the Becher Chase at Aintree last time but unseated his rider early in the race. He’s a well handicapped horse on his best form when winning the Ultima Handicap Chase at the 2018 Cheltenham Festival.

1pt win – Coo Star Sivola – 15/2 @ Bet365 & Paddy Power

2:20 – The rescheduled Relkeel Hurdle. Indefatigable interested me each way early in the week but now there are just seven runners it’s a race I can leave alone.

2:55 – Just the four go to the post for the Grade 2 Ladbrokes Silviniaco Conti Chase I’m more than happy with 5/1 ante post selection Master Tommytucker.

3:30 – Ladbrokes Lanzarote Handicap Hurdle (Listed Race) – 2m 5f

Twenty handicap hurdlers are set to go to post for the latest renewal of the Lanzarote Hurdle.

Recent Leicester winner One True King looks a fair favourite and should be suited by the step to today’s 2m 5f trip.

Everglow is open to plenty of improvement but he does take on some solid handicappers here on his handicap debut.

Glynn is another making his handicap debut after just two starts over hurdles. A mark of 134 looks workable but like Everglow will find a big field handicap a new experience. Trainer Nicky Henderson has saddled the winner of this race three times since 2013.

Polish needs to jump better than he has so far on three starts this season. If he does so the 6-year-old does have each way claims.

Shang Tang ran well when 3^rd of 18 at Wetherby on his seasonal reappearance before beating three rivals in an Ascot novice hurdle. Fell at the first at Wincanton last time but if none the worse for that mishap looks interesting on just his third start in handicap company.  

Castle Robin has improved with each of his four starts this season winning at Carlisle and following up at Cheltenham. The 6-year-old put in a career best when 2^nd of 12 at Ascot 22-days ago. This is a better race and the trainer form could be better but he’s got each way claims.

Hunter’s Call is another with each way claims. He normally travels strongly but doesn’t often find as much as seems likely at the end of his races.

Verdict: Plenty in with claims. Everglow & Glynn are both unexposed and could be better than their opening handicap marks. Shang Tang is one for the shortlist and the improving Castle Robin looks overpriced.

1pt win – Shang Tang – 10/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

1pt each way – Castle Rock – 18/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook (both paying 6 places 1/5 odds)

1pt win – Everglow – 7/1 @ Bet365 & Paddy Power

ITV are covering a couple of races from Wincanton but nothing appeals from a betting perspective.

Chepstow

12:50 – Recent Sandown third Farrants Way will have his supporters in this 2m 7 ½ f handicap hurdle.

Exploiteur comes into the race looking for a hat trick after wins at Ffos Las and C&D 35-days ago. Up 6lb in a better race but the 7-year-old goes very well in heavy ground (both wins) and is open to further progress.

Flashjack is just 1lb higher than when winning at Haydock last December. He goes well on heavy ground and this looks easier than either of his last two assignments.

Oscar Asche returns to hurdling after failing to complete on three chase starts this season. He’s only had five starts over the smaller obstacles and is unexposed in handicap company. Each way claims at big odds.

1pt each way – Oscar Asche – 28/1 @ Bet365 & Coral (paying 3 places ¼ odds)

3:10 – Coral Welsh Grand National Handicap Chase (Grade 3) – 3m 6 ½ f

I won’t go into the race again, as I have already done so far earlier in the week, my three ante post darts Bobo Mac, The Hollow Ginge & Dominateur stand their ground which is half of the battle in ante post betting.  

Of the rest Prime Venture who was 4th in the race 12 months ago and has claims again. He finally got his head in front at the 13th attempt over fences when beating two rivals at Sedgefield on his seasonal reappearance in November. He’s tempting but not enough for putting up as a further selection.

Not sure if there will be any selections tomorrow so watch your inboxes

Cheers

John

Good morning all,

As regular readers of this column are fully aware, I do like this time in the week. The bookies have up the big weekend races and there’s a chance of spotting one that the bookies have priced up wrongly. So far eleven of Saturday’s races have been priced by the bookmakers.

Looking at the going at Saturday’s big meetings. Chepstow is being described as heavy for the rescheduled Coral Welsh Grand National. Kempton is at the time of writing being described, as soft as is Wincanton. Barring heavy frost, it’s hard to see racing not taking place.

ITV are covering a bumper ten races on what looks a “Super Saturday” for the channel.

It’s looking good on the weather/going front. But is there anything that stands out as ante post bet at this stage?

Saturday Ante Post advice

I have a couple of ante post selections for the Coral Welsh Grand National and couple from Kempton.

Welsh Grand National

Favourite Secret Reprieve ticks plenty of the key boxes like going and track.  He’s well in at the weights – 8lb compared to future races – only has a 4lb penalty to carry for his success in the Grand National Trial here last month. He will be popular pick for many punters and the favourite will be very hard to beat. Trainer Evan Williams is also likely to saddle Prime Venture who was 4th in the race 12 months ago and has each way claims again. He finally got his head in front at the 13th attempt over fences when beating two rivals at Sedgefield on his seasonal reappearance in November.

When I first looked at this race there weeks ago, I put up Bobo Mac (25/1) & The Hollow Ginge (33/1). The former has proved weak in the ante post betting in the past 24-hours but should still go well if he runs. Of the pair The Hollow Ginge looks a better bet. He shaped with plenty of promise for this when a staying on 4th of 18 in the Ladbroke Trophy at Newbury last time. Goes well on soft ground and looks a strong stayer.

Oliver Sherwood saddled the winner of the Sussex National at Plumpton on Sunday and bids for a national double. His runner is unexposed stayer Dominateur.  The 8-year-old won two of his five starts over fences last season and looked an ideal type for the race when winning a heavy ground 3m novices handicap chase here at the meeting last season. Will be all the better for his seasonal reappearance at Kempton 62-days ago. If his jumping holds up, he can run well.

1pt each way – Dominateur – 12/1 @ BetVictor (paying 5 places 1/5 odds)

Kempton – Lanzarote Day

Apart from the Welsh Grand National. There’s a cracking card at Kempton for what is usually Lanzarote Day. Apart from Lanzarote Handicap Hurdle (3:30)   Which Looks a cracker and would be the best handicap hurdle of the season. If all the fancied horses declared at the five-day stage, stand their ground. We also have the rescheduled Grade 2 Relkeel Hurdle (2:20), from Cheltenham’s cancelled New Year’s Day meeting and the Grade 2 Silviniaco Conti Chase (2:55).  

1:10 -Unibet Extra Place Offers Every Day Handicap Chase (Class 3) – 2m 4 ½ f

Erick Le Rouge hasn’t been in action since falling in the Badger Beers Trophy Handicap Chase at Wincanton 63-days ago. He’s had a wind-op since that run and is back at a track that really suits. He’s 3-4 at Kempton, including this race last year and returns to class 3 company for the first time since winning here 12 months ago. Has won on soft ground but wouldn’t want it to testing and his best from on RPR’s has come on good or good soft.

1pt win – Erick Le Rouge – 15/2 @ Bet365

2:55 – Silviniaco Conti Chase (Grade 2) – 2m 4 1/2 f

This year’s renewal has attracted a good field at the 5-day stage. The bookies have made Imperial Aura favourite. Next in the betting is recent Cheltenham Grade 2 winner Mister Fisher and his trainer has won this three times since 2014.Given their recent wins in the grade their claims are obvious.

Riders Onthe Storm was a well beaten third to Put The Kettle On, on his seasonal return but that was over 2m and 2m 4f is more his trip. A Grade 1 winner at Ascot last season. If he was to bounce back to last season’s best, he would be in the mix for sure.

The one I like at the prices is Master Tommytucker. The 10-year-old carried top-weight in the Caspian Caviar and seemed to be renewing his effort when making a bad mistake two out. That seemed to knock the stuffing out of him and he eventually finished a well beaten 7^th. He get’s 6lb from the three mentioned earlier. Despite falling twice here last season I think this is his type of track.  If he can cut out the silly mistake, he usually makes during a race, he won’t be far away and 6/1 looks a fair price.  

2pt’s win – Master Tommytucker – 5/1 @Bet365 & Paddy Power

There are no selections on Wednesday.

Cheers

John

Hi all,

As promised, there was no ‘slicing n dicing’ and I kept Seaston Spirit (6/1) as a selection in the Sussex National. It paid off as the 8-year-old who received a good ride from Aidan Coleman, made it 4-11 over fences for trainer Oliver Sherwood.

It looks a quiet week on the punting front until Saturday.  On the plus side we do have some good racing to look forward to this Saturday, weather permitting of course, with the re-scheduled Welsh Grand National at Chepstow. At Kempton it’s the Lanzarote Handicap Hurdle and in addition the Relkeel Hurdle moved from Cheltenham’s cancelled New Year’s Day fixture. Even Wincanton gets in on the act with Dipper Novices Chase, also from that Cheltenham meeting.

I’m hoping to put together a Saturday ante post article which will be with you on Wednesday. Watch your inbox for that and any midweek selections.

Cheers

John

Hi all,

A soon as I saw Seeyouatmidnight in a great position in the veterans’ chase final I knew I had made a mistake not going for three in the race.

Oh, the joys of punting.

My new year’s resolution. If I fancy one why ‘slice n dice’ further just put them up especially if their odds allow.

The highlight of Sunday’s racing is the 3m 4 ½ f Sky Sports Racing Sussex National Handicap Chase (2:25) at Plumpton this afternoon.

Plumpton

2:25 – Last time out winners Benevolentdictator & Seaston Spirit must be respected. The latter is getting to value price.  Stable form is slightly off putting but he’s real staying type and won’t mind if the ground is heavy.

Salty Boy with cheekpieces on for the first time, ran his best race since coming over from Ireland when 3^rd of 10 in the Tommy Whittle Handicap Chase at Haydock 15-days ago. He was doing his best work at the finish that day and should be suited by the step up to marathon trips like this one. Provided he didn’t have to hard race last time he will go close here.

1pt win – Salty Boy – 4/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

1pt win – Seaston Spirit – 6/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes  

Cheers

John

Hi all,

ITV are covering seven races from Sandown & Ayr today. The feature races of the seven races are the Grade 1 Tolworth Hurdle (2:25) and the Veterans Chase Series Final (3:00) at Sandown.

It’s a shortened Saturday preview today but let’s hope we can begin 2021 in the same form we ended 2020.

Sandown

1:50 – Ibleo is the right favourite. A solid and consistent handicap chaser he’s 3lb higher than when finishing runner-up to Sky Pirate at Cheltenham three weeks ago. Sure to be thereabouts if reproducing this seasons efforts.

Moonlighter was sent off the 7/4 favourite for a Newbury handicap chase on Ladbroke Trophy Day. Sadly, for those who backed him, he fell at the fifth. An excellent second to Greaneteen in the Haldon Gold Cup on his seasonal reappearance. The top-weight won’t be far If none the worse for his Newbury fall.

Early Du Lemo returned from a mammoth 689-days lay off when beaten just a neck by a stablemate Darebin over C&D at the Tingle Creek meeting. Fell at the 7^th at Ascot 14-days ago but if non the worse for that mishap won’t be far away on ground that suits.

1pt win – Early Du Lemo – 11/2 @ Bet365

1pt win – Moonlighter – 4/1 @ Ladbrokes

Nothing really appeals in the Tolworth Hurdle so it watching brief for me.

3:00 – Unibet Veterans’ Handicap Chase (The Final Of The 2020 Veterans’ Chase Series) (Class 2) -3m.

Sixteen old favourite’s are set to go post for one of the most popular races of the winter jumps season. Here are my shortlisted six.

Jepeck beat Regal Flow by a short head 12 months ago. The 12-year-old can race off the mark as last year and although he hasn’t been in the same form on his two starts this season, pulling up on both occasions, the first-time tongue tie/cheekpiece combination are applied today and this has been the likely target.

Regal Flow meets Jepeck on 3lb better terms today and went into the tracker when finishing third in the London National here last time. That run showed the 14-year-old has lost none of his enthusiasm for the game. Three mile is his bare minimum these days, last win came in the 4m 2f Midlands Grand National on heavy ground, but he still makes plenty of each way appeal if the ground is soft enough

Sir Ivan had run well to finish third over hurdles on his seasonal return at Aintree and then was an excellent 2^nd of 7 at Leicester (2m 4f) 34-days ago. Has won over 3m in the past but that win did come on better ground. If he stays 3m on this sort of ground won’t be far away.

Seeyouatmidnight might be a 13-year-old but hasn’t had too much racing for his age. He showed he was still capable of winning races at a good level when winning a series handicap chase Carlisle back in February, off 1lb lower. He made a mistake six out on his seasonal return at Haydock 31-daya ago and that was race over. Ground/distance are fine and he should go well.

Valtor can be forgiven a poor run at Warwick last time, much better going this way around, and probably needed his seasonal reappearance at Ascot. He’s on a decent mark and can go well.

Crosspark is a consistent staying handicapper. He finished one place ahead of Regal Flow in the London National. Up 3lb and now racing off a career high mark but the 11-year-old won’t be far away provided the ground isn’t too testing.

Verdict: A cracker of a renewal. Jepeck should male a bold bid for back-to-back wins in the race Provided they go a good gallop it’s hard to see Crosspark being out of the frame. Regal Flow is another with each way claims as is Sir Ivan, if he stays 3m on soft ground, and Seeyouatmidnight is hard to keave left out of calculations.

1pt each way – Jepeck – 11/1 @ Ladbrokes (paying 5 places 1/5 odds)

1pt win – Crosspark – 8/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

3:35 – Monsieur Lecoq won this race two years ago off a much lower mark but he improved after that and can race off the same mark as when 3^rd of 14 in last season’s Greatwood Hurdle and 5lb lower than when runner-up to Not So Sleepy in that seasons Betfair Exchange Trophy at Ascot. The 7-year-old hasn’t looked in the same form on either start this season but he’s a classy hurdler when at his best and the yard had a winner at Warwick on Thursday.

1pt win – Monsieur Lecoq – 3/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

Ayr

ITV are covering three races from Ayr and the meeting looks likely to take place on heavy ground.  The first two of the races are the ones for selections.

2:05 – Charmant can race off the same mark as for his last win at Wetherby last January. The 9-year-old has yet to hit form on either start this season but handles the ground, is 2-4 at Ayr and has Brian Hughes a four-time winner on the 8-year-old, staying in the saddle.

Flowery was a good second here over shorter on his seasonal return 63-days ago. Today’s 2m 4 ½ f is more his trip and he goes well on heavy ground. Capable of going close if in the same form as last time.

1pt win – Charmant – 15/2 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook

2:40 – Eight handicap hurdlers have been declared for what is the best race on the Ayr card.

Justatenner has won his last two over C&D and is suited to testing going. This is better race than his win here on October but he should run well.

Illegal Model winner of a Lingfield novice in January put in a good effort when 3^rd of 13 at Uttoxeter on his return to action. Didn’t quite build on that promise when only fifth at Sandown last time but he’s only had four career starts and remains open to being better than a mark of 131.

Big Penny ran well on her hat trick bid when 2^nd of 7 at Lingfield 32-days ago. Needs to find something more to win but the first-time visor replaces the cheekpieces and such progress could be forthcoming. Showed heavy ground didn’t inconvenience last time but 3m on heavy will test the mare’s stamina.

Portstorm’s best RPR came when runner-up over C&D (Heavy) in January. Once again showed a liking for testing ground when winning a 2m 5 ½ f novice hurdle here 19-days ago. Handicap debut here and if he improves for it won’t be far away.

1pt win – Portstorm – 6/1 @ Bet365 & Ladbrokes

Cheers

John

Hi all,

It’s been a challenging year both on and off the track in 2020 and we can only hope things get better in 2021. Well, they can’t be any worse. Can they?

On a positive note, the service ends the year on a high. It’s been a profitable Christmas period, capped off by Who’s In The Box’s win in yesterday Lincolnshire National at Market Rasen.

That turned out to be the last selection of 2020, as there’s nothing that I really fancy today.

Wishing you and yours a peaceful New Year.

John

Hi all,

Amateur’s win in the Mandarin Handicap Chase at Newbury meant a profitable Christmas for us. It could have been even better if I had put up Funambule Sivola in the last.

After all the Christmas big race action. Today seems a bit underwhelming. However, we do have a regional National to enjoy at Market Rasen with the latest renewal of the 3m 3 ½ f Lincolnshire National (2:15).

Market Rasen

2:15 – Cool Destination & Terrierman where first and second here over 3m last time. There was just a length between the pair at the line. The runner-up gets 3lb here and that could be enough to see him reverse placings here. The winner was idling a bit after the last so may have been value for more than the bare margin of defeat. That said I think Terrierman could prove the stronger stayer over today’s marathon trip. He’s just had the two starts over fences and is open to further improvement and trainer Dan Skelton has aimed the 6-year-old at this race.

The inform Cyclop bids for the hat trick after wins over fences & hurdles at Chepstow and won’t be far away if in the same form.

Trainer Nick Kent saddled the 2016 winner of the race and has another lively contender in the Who’s In The Box. The 6-year-old has finished runner-up on both on his two starts over fences. He should be suited by today’s stamina test and softer ground won’t inconvenience.  A mark of 109 looks workable and at around 10/1 he looks fair each way value with those bookies paying four places.  

1pt each way – Who’s In The Box – 11/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes (both paying 4 places 1/5 odds)

1pt win – Terrierman – 9/2 @ Bet365 & Ladbrokes

Cheers

John