Author: John Burke

Hi all,

Both Wetherby and Fakenham must pass morning inspections. However, the best of today’s action is across the Irish Sea.

The going at Gowran Park is currently being described as heavy so stamina is going to be the key to success today.

Gowran Park

2:20 – John Mulhern Galmoy Hurdle (Grade 2) – 3m

It’s not the strongest of renewals of the Galmoy Hurdle.  Great White Shark won a valuable 2m 7f handicap hurdle at the Galway Festival and then went onto win Cesarewitch Handicap at Newmarket. Very effective on soft ground but winter heavy does ask a different question of the mare. Looks the one to beat here and if you fancy here you might well consider having a bit on her for the Stayers Hurdle at Cheltenham for which she is a best priced 25/1 with William Hill & Bet365

Noel Meade has a couple of runners in Sixshooter & Diol Kier. The latter looks the more interesting of the pair. Diol Kier beat Monkfish over hurdles last season but didn’t seem to be natural on his three starts over fences in the autumn. He made a winning return to hurdles when winning a small race at Limerick 33-days ago. Needs to improve plenty on that form to win here but does get the first time cheekpieces which should help his jumping.

Sams Profile finished runner-up in a Grade 1 Novices Hurdle at the 2019 Punchestown Festival. Has returned from 566-days lay off with two starts over fences and last time out finished a respectable third to Monkfish in a beginners’ chase at Fairyhouse 61-days ago. Back over hurdles today and is interesting in the first-time hood.

Verdict: I’m going with Great White Shark on her return to hurdling in what doesn’t look the deepest renewals of the race.

1pt win – Great White Shark – 5/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

3:25 – Goffs Thyestes Handicap Chase (Grade A) – 3m 1f

Willie Mullins has saddled five winners of this race since 2012, including the last two. He’s got five of the eighteen runners here including a couple at the top of the end of betting. There should be an even gallop but I don’t think you’ll want to find see your selection to far out of its ground.

Acapella Bourgeois was predictably no match for stablemate Al Boum Photo on his seasonal return on his return to action 27-days ago. Last year’s Grade 3 Bobbyjo winner didn’t jump well enough when only 6th in this race 12 months ago but heavy ground and a good test of stamina is exactly what he wants.

Brahma Bull unseated his rider at the second in the Tramore race won by Al Boum Photo. Prior to that he had finished runner-up to Minella Indo and won three of his first five starts over fences last season. Shapes like he can improve over staying trips but he can make the odd mistake in his races.

Class Conti was runner-up in this race 12 months ago off 2lb lower. That performance came after a poor run in the Paddy Power Handicap Chase at Leopardstown and he seems to have had the same preparation this year.

Saturnas won a Grade 1 hurdle as a novice and was only beaten a neck in the 2018 Kerry National at Listowel. He’s probably needed both starts since returning from a mammoth 815-day absence and is interesting at a big price in the first time cheekpieces.

Gordon Elliott won this in 2018 and has couple of fancied runners in Coko Beach & Run Wild Fred.

Coko Beach has been well backed in the past 24 hours.  Looks on a handy mark on his close-up second to Pencilfulloflead on his chase debut at Galway. Gets the first-time blinkers on his first start beyond an extended 2m 6 ½ f.  Big player if he stays.

Run Wild Fred is 0-5 over fences but put in a career best on RPR’s when 2nd of 8 over today’s trip at Punchestown last time. Open to more progress now going handicapping and gives his trainer a strong hand in the race.

One place behind Run Wild Fred at Punchestown was The Big Dog. The 8-year-old won a maiden hurdle on this day 12 months ago. Lacks experience over fences but is on a handy mark if he gets to race (third reserve)

Spyglass Hill just heads the ante post betting. A winner of a beginners’ chase (heavy) here last February. Excuses for his two performances in the Galway Plate and Kerry National but confidence back when runner-up here 69-days.

Discordantly was a good winner at Galway in October and 4th of 22 in the Troytown Handicap Chase. Not so good in the Paddy Power last time but he’s better than he was able to show at Leopardstown.

Verdict: Willie Mullins probably holds the key. Top-weight Acapella Bourgeois looks a solid enough favourite. If Brahma Bull puts in a clear round of jumping, he won’t be far away and has probably more scope for improvement than the favourite. Both Class Conti & Saturnas have each way claims. Run Wild Fred could prove the pick of the Elliott pair although Jack Kennedy has opted for Coko Beach. Spyglass Hill has a decent pot in him and third reserve The Big Dog would be on the shortlist but I don’t think he will get a run.

1pt win – Brahma Bull – 8/1 @ Ladbrokes

1pt each way – Saturnas – 30/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook (both paying 6 places 1/5 odds)

Cheers

John

Hi all,

The first selections of the week.

Thurles

Thurles is the only jumps card today with it’s the rearranged Horse & Jockey Hotel Chase card. The feature race is the Grade 2 Horse & Jockey Hotel Chase (12:45). Willie Mullins saddles four of the seven runners: Allaho, Easy Game, Annamix & Elimay all declared, as they were on Sunday. Gordon Elliott saddles Battleoverdoyen and Henry De Bromhead Balko De Flos.

12:45 – Allaho didn’t seem to get home over 3m when 4th of 14 in the Grade 1 Savills Chase at Leopardstown. The drop back in trip will be in the favourites favour and he’s the one to beat.

Balko De Flos hasn’t won since successful in the 2018 Ryanair Chase and and has probably go ot the game. However, the veteran does get the first time cheekpiece’s here and there is no doubt if the headgear works the oracle, he would be a massive price at around 20/1.

1pt win – Balko De Flos – 33/1 @ Bet365

There are couple of interesting handicaps on the Thurles card.

1:20 – Enjoy D’allen won a Fairyhouse novice chase 8-days ago. Up 8lb for that win but capable of more improvement and the cheekpieces left off last time return. Big chance of back-to-back wins.

Key Commander won at the fourth attempt over fences when winning here over 3m 1f last month. Seemed to find the step up in trip to his liking that say and has been hiked up 12lb for that win. There should be more to come from the 6-year-old if the drop back in trip doesn’t prove and inconvenience.  

You must go back to 2015 for Kitten Rock’s last win but he hasn’t been running to badly of late and I don’t think a win is too far away.  His best performance last season came at this venue over an extended 2m last February Not sure he wants this far though.

1pt each way – Key Commander – 7/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes (both paying 4 places 1/5 odds)

3:05 – Whatstoknow won a maiden hurdle here last February before finishing eighth in the Supreme at Cheltenham. Returns to hurdling after two starts over fences and must be respected on his handicap debut.

Strange Notions won a C&D maiden hurdle in March and was in contention when coming down at the last on her seasonal reappearance over C&D 35-days ago and the mare looks to have each way claims.

Blanketontheground has done well since joining her present yard and can’t have the ground soft enough. Back in handicap company today and shouldn’t be far away.

1pt win – Blanketonthground – 5/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

Cheers

John

Hi all,

A barren week on the winner’s front. Leaving just Thurles to change that. I have a couple of big priced each way selections from Irish venue today.

Thurles

2:30 – Enjoy D’allen won a Fairyhouse novice chase 8-days ago. Up 8lb for that win but capable of more improvement and the cheekpieces left off last time return. Big chance of back-to-back wins.

Key Commander won at the fourth attempt over fences when winning here over 3m 1f last month. Seemed to find the step up in trip to his liking that say and has been hiked up 12lb for that win. There should be more to come from the 6-year-old but I’m not sure a drop in distance is a positive.

You must go back to 2015 for Kitten Rock’s last win but he hasn’t been running to badly of late and I don’t think a win is to far away.  Best performance last season came at this venue over an extended 2m last February Not sure he wants this far though.

Cooldine Bog has been running in much better races over 3m + on his last two starts. The 8-year-old’s best run over fences came over around this distance when 2^nd of 12 at Fairyhouse back in September. Probably wouldn’t want heavy ground but a reproduction of his Fairyhouse performance puts him bang in the mix.

1pt each way – Cooldine Bog – 16/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes (both paying 4 places 1/5 odds)

4:00 – Whatstoknow won a maiden hurdle here last February before finishing eighth in the Supreme at Cheltenham. Returns to hurdling after two starts over fences and must be respected on his handicap debut.

Gold Speed a winner at Fairyhouse. 7lb lower, in September, ran just as well in defeat when 4^th of 20 behind the improving Master McShee at Leopardstown over Christmas.  This is a drop-in class for the 8-year-old and he’s a contender.

Strange Notions won a C&D maiden hurdle in March and was in contention when coming down at the last on her seasonal reappearance over C&D 35-days ago and the mare looks to have each way claims.

1pt each way – Strange Notions – 12/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

Cheers

John

Hi all,

Sorry, I couldn’t get this out last evening as promised.

Given Haydock must survive an early morning inspection I will begin this Saturday preview at Ascot.  The feature race of the weekend is Ascot’s Grade 1 Clarence House Chase (3:35).  There might be only six runners but it’s an intriguing looking race.

Ascot

1:50 – Paddys Motorbike has been well placed to win his last two starts in maiden/novice company at Uttoxeter and Huntingdon since joining his present yard. The 9-year-old is back in handicap company off what looks a decent mark.

Lightly Squeeze was third behind Not So Sleepy here in a valuable handicap hurdle before Christmas. He’s just 3lb higher and if he stays today’s extra 3 ½ f won’t be far away.

1pt win – Paddy Motorbike – 6/1 @ Paddy Power

2:25 – Cobolobo hasn’t been the most consistent of horses but he put in a career best effort on RPR’s when making all to win at Exeter 37-days ago. The 9-year-old goes well on heavy ground but he could competition for the lead.

De Forgotten One. Third in the Cross-Country race at Cheltenham last month. The 7-year-old had no trouble in seeing off six rivals back over regulation fences at Catterick 20-days ago. Now 3-8 over fences. He’s been raised 10lb for his last win but remains open to further improvement. Like Cobolobo he will face competition for the lead.

Crossley Tender was third behind Cobolobo at Exeter and has since gone onto win back at the same venue. Likely to be ridden patently so could get the race run to suit.

Yalltari finished third in the Grade 2 Reynoldstown Novices’ Chase over C&D two seasons back. Only four starts since but hasn’t really shown the form to think he can win this. If he was to bounce back to form, he would be on a good mark.

Townshend won this race 12 months ago and can race off 1lb lower today. Course form over fences at Ascot is a big positive. On the negative side he’s not been in any real form since that win.

1pt win – De Forgotten One – 9/2 @ Bet365

3:00 – A seriously competitive 2m 5f handicap chase which has attracted 14 runners. It looks like the race could be strongly run as their a few who like to be up with the pace.

I’m going to take on the market leaders Good Boy Bobby who was a decent fourth in the Caspian Caviar Gold Cup last time and Bennys King who won a handicap chase over 2m 3f before Christmas.

Dashel Drasher beat two rivals over C&D last time. Less exposed over fences than most of his rivals and makes his handicap chase debut off what looks a workable mark. Capable of more improvement and is 2-2 at the venue so must be high on the shortlist.

Domaine De L’Isle was in great form when winning this race 12 months. Can race off the same mark here but he hasn’t run to last years best on subsequent starts. Get’s the first-time blinkers and if they have the desired effect, he’s handicapped to go close.

Jerrysback has placed on both his starts at Ascot. First run since finishing 3^rd of 10 here over 3m in December 2019.  Trainer Philip Hobbs had a first-time out handicap chase winner at Newbury this week and I can see this one going well.

Acting Lass finished one place ahead of Jerrysback in the Ascot race and won this race in 2018.  However, he’s pulled up on both starts since. Has had a wind-op since his last run at Bangor 73-days ago. Will like the testing ground and can’t be totally dismissed.

Windsor Avenue wasa good second behind Imperial Aura at Carlisle on his seasonal return but then pulled up in the Caspian Caviar Gold Cup at Cheltenham. The 8-year-old looked to return to form when third in the Rowland Meyrick over 3m at Wetherby.  Capable of getting into the money and will be suited by the likely strong pace.

Espoir De Guye looked a handicap chaser worth following when winning over C&D, his second win at the track, on his seasonal return. Didn’t stay 3m back here 35-days ago and will be better suited by a return to today’s trip. Get’s the first-time tongue and should go well.

Verdict: Last year’s winner Domaine De L’Isle could be set for a big run in the first-time blinkers. Jerrsyback has run well here in the past and looks capable of landing a decent pot over fences off his present mark. Course and distance winner Dashel Drasher is open to more progress over fences but takes on some experienced handicappers here. Drop back in trip will be more in Espoir De Guye’s favour and he’s better than he showed over 3m last time.

1pt each way – Jerrysback – 10/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes (both paying 4 places 1/5 odds)

1pt each way – Domaine De L’Isle – 14/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook (both paying 4 places 1/5 odds)

3:35 – Matchbook Betting Exchange Clarence House Chase (Grade 1) – 2m 1f

Tingle Creek winner Politologue head the ante post betting for this race and is the one to beat. I can see him being sent out in front and play catch me if you can.

Last year’s winner Defi Du Seuil must bounce back from two underwhelming runs in the Champion Chase and in the Shloer Chase on his seasonal reappearance.

Unlike Defi Du Seuil, Waiting Patiently has proven his wellbeing. He also finished within a length of that one in last season’s Tingle Creek and has an extra furlong to race here. Now he might be a better horse over 2m 4f but the soft ground will bring his stamina into play and he’s won here in the past although that success came over 2m 4f.

Course and distance winner First Flow steps out of handicap company for the first time in his hat trick bid. Ticks the boxes marked course, distance and going but needs more improvement to win.  

The Venetia Williams trained Fanion D’Estruval was still going well when falling three out in the Grade 2 Peterborough Chase last time and could be the each- way bet in the race if he handles going right-handed.

Verdict: Waiting Patiently deserves another Grade 1 win but Politologue seems to have turned a corner and will be hard to beat. The intriguing Fanion D’Estruval and First Flow look set to fight out for the minor money. The double figure price has gone on Fanion D’Estruval so it’s watching rather than a betting race for me.

I have just looked at one Haydock race as I’m not convinced the card will survive the weather although it’s more down to frost than rain.

Haydock

2:40 – Peter Marsh Handicap Chase (A Limited Handicap) (Grade 2) – 3m 1 ½ f

Royale Pagaille is a short priced favourite and rightly so. The 7-year-old made a winning return to action in a novices’ chase here over 2m 5 ½ f and took advantage of good opening handicap chase when winning at Kempton over 3m last month. The handicapper has hiked him up 16lb for that success but he still looks on a winnable mark, especially as some pundits have put him up as a lively outsider for the Gold Cup.

Sam Brown made a good return to action when third to Imperial Aura at Carlisle 83-days ago. Won a Grade 2 novices’’ chase at this meeting last year and goes very well on heavy ground. First time tongue tie for his handicap chase debut and looks set to go well.

Lightly raced Acey Milan a stablemate of Sam Brown gives trainer Anthony Honeyball a strong hand in the race. The 7-year-old has only had three starts over fences. Poor run at Plumpton last month to overcome but he’s surely better than that performance and has a nice light weight.

There was plenty to like about Sam’s Adventure’s win over C&D last time. A 6lb rise in the weights looks fair/ At his best on heavy ground he’s must have big chance here.

Crievehill won over course and distance here last season and is back down to that same mark. Slight concern about really heavy ground for the 9-year-old and he’s yet to hit form on his three starts this season.

Smooth Stepper won the Grand National Trial here over 3m 4 ½ f last February. Wasn’t disgraced when 5^th of 14 in the Becher Chase at Aintree last time. Vulnerable to more progressive/better handicapped types but run into the places.

Lamanavar Pippin is lightly raced and unexposed over fences. A winner of one of his three starts over the larger obstacles last season. The 8-year-old ran a race full of promise on when 3^rd of 11 at Cheltenham on his seasonal return. Ran no sort of race when beaten favourite in the Grand National Trial at Chepstow last time.  Stays well and has winning form on testing ground.  Trainer Colin Tizzard remains a yard to wary of 0-38 but plenty of his horses have run well this week and he saddled the winner of the race 2018 and the runner up in 2019.

Verdict: You have the right favourites in Royale Pagaille and Sam Brown who both will handle conditions. Lamanavar Pippin has drifted out to a value price and despite trainer form looks worth an each-way play. Sam’s Adventure ticks the right boxes and won’t be far away.

1pt each way – Lamanavar Pippin – 14/1 @ William Hill (paying 4 places 1/5 odds)

1pt win – Sam’s Adventure – 11/2 – Gen

Cheers

John

Hi all,

Frustrating one yesterday as The King Writ looked the most likely winner coming to two out in the Somerset National. All the more galling that it was the old boy Dawson City who did him. The place part of the bet was landed but it could have been so much better.

Call me shocked but it looks like we might race at Haydock tomorrow, albeit the course has to pass a 8am precautionary inspection.

Not much to go at today

Chelmsford

6:15 – Just the six go to post for this 5f Class 2 handicap. However, you can make some sort of case for all of them.

Tone The Barone 3-3 over C&D ended last season looking progressive sprinter when winning over the minimum trip at Ascot, back in September. Capable of more improvement this year and although 5-year-old returns from a 139-day absence, he’s 3-3 when racing after a 100+day break.  A shade vulnerable in a slowly run race but he’s the right favourite.

Leodis Dream hails from the inform David Loughnane yard (4-17 24% in the past 14-days). The 5-year-old has yet to win since joining his present yard last year but has run some respectable races and has dropped down to a good mark. Last win came when making all over C&D in September 2019 off 12lb higher. Despite stall six he could get the run of the race here.

1pt win – Leodis Dream – 5/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

My aim is to get Saturday’s preview to you by 9pm this evening.

Cheers

John

Hi all,

Given Haydock’s Saturday meeting seems likely to be called off this morning. I’m holding fire with my weekend selections for now.

I do like these regional National’s and it’s the Somerset National (3:50) at Wincanton today. The going is heavy but no morning inspection is planned so they should race.  I have some selections from the Somerset track and Lingfield.

Wincanton

2:50 – Lamanver Bel Ami made a winning return to action over hurdles at Chepstow in November and improved further for going chasing when following up at Ffos Las 22-days later. He’s up 7lb for that success and needs to improve further but that’s not of the question given he’s only a 7-year-old.  Not sure why he’s been off 64-days but he goes well fresh and will relish the heavy ground.

1pt win – Lamanver Bel Ami – 6/1 @ Bet365

3:50 – Dawson City can never be ruled out in these marathon contests. The veteran was disappointing in the Susses National last time. However, prior to that was only beaten a head at Exeter two starts back. The 3m 2 ½ trip is a bare minimum for the 12-year-old but Millie Wonnacott takes off a handy 7lb.

The Kings Writ put in a career best when runner-up here last January. He found things happening to quick over 3m at Kempton last time and will be suited by the return to today’s distance. If Harry Cobden can get the 10-year-old in a good jumping rhythm out in front he can get into the money.

Last time out winners Cyclop & Nearly Perfect head the market and both are going the right way. The latterly in particular is a staying handicap chaser to keep onside. He’s 2-2 here and all his wins have come on soft ground. He looks worth a saver alongside my main race selection The Kings Writ.

1pt each way – The Kings Writ – 11/1 @ Bet365 (paying 3 places 1/5 odds)

1pt win – Nearly Perfect – 4/1 @ Bet365

Lingfield

2:00 – Keyser Soze was a disappointing last of eight at Newcastle on his return from a lay off 40-days ago. The 7-year-old needs to bounce back from that performance but he gets the first time cheekpieces and is 2-3 over C&D. Handy draw in stall one and Hollie Doyle is an eyecatching jockey booking. I just prefer him to last time out Kempton winner Ghaith.

1pt win – Keyser Soze – 9/2 @ Bet365 & Ladbrokes

Cheers

John

Hi all,

It’s over to Clonmel for today’s sole selection.

Clonmel

3:35 – Roscommon maiden hurdle winner Tomeric put in his best effort over fences when 4^th of 12 on his handicap chase debut at Limerick over Christmas. The 6-year-old needs to improve on that performance to win here but given it was just his fourth start over the larger obstacles such improvement could be forthcoming. Yard had a winner at Punchestown on Sunday.

1pt each way – Tomeric – 8/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes (both paying 4 places 1/5 odds)

Cheers

John

Hi all,

A frustrating end to the weekend.

Screaming Colours made his effort from to far back in the amateur national at Punchestown. Still, at least he gave us a good run for our money which can’t be said of Asterion Forlonge and Magic Tricks in the Moscow Flyer. That latter race was won by the Dreal Deal who came from last to first to win. I’m not sure how he could be sent off 22/1. I had him at 7/1 on my betting tissue for the race. If he had been above 8s or bigger when I posted out my tips for the race, he would have been on it.

No point in dwelling on the matter though it tends to be swings and roundabouts in this game.

It looks like trainer Tom Lacey has started to hit form 2 winners from 4 runners in the past 14-days. He sends two up on the long journey to Ayr from his base in Herefordshire: Polydora (1:55) and Sinndarella (3:00) and they both look to have chances in their respective races.

Ayr

1:55 – Polydora was a promising novice staying handicap chaser two starts back but has seemed to totally lose his way. At least last time offered a little bit more encouragement. The 9-year-old ran well for a long way when fifth in the Lincolnshire National 19-days ago. That was his first run since a wind op and the cheekpieces he wore for the first time at Market Rasen are retained. He’s down to an exploitable mark now an with the yard among the winners he looks worth chancing here.

1pt win – Polydora – 9/2 @ Bet365 & Paddy Power

Cheers

John

Hi all,

Pleased with the 2pts win on Notachance (9/2) in the Classic Chase at Warwick (Ballyoptic lost fifth by a nose) and Pont Aven landed the each-way money when finishing runner-up in the Dan Moore at Fairyouse, which saved the day.  However, the day would have been even better if I had gone with Imperial Alcazar along with Kepagge in the Pertemps Hurdle Series Qualifier.

On to Sunday and it’s Punchestown that take centre stage. It’s not often that first two races on a card are the two best contests but that’s the case at Punchestown today. First, we have Envoi Allen having to give Asterion Forlonge 11lb in the Grade 3 novices chase (12:50) and then it’s The Grade 2 Moscow Flyer Novice Hurdle (1:20).

Apart from those races the rest of the card is average although I do have selection in the concluding race.

Punchestown

12:50 – If Envoi Allen is going to be beaten this season it will be today.He must give 11lb to Asterion Forlonge who goes well right-handed and will probably prefer the forecast heavy ground. That said he did blot his copy book when falling five out in a Grade 1 at Limerick over Christmas. I think the favourite will win but the 5/2 available about Asterion Forlonge is tempting.

1pt win – Asterion Forlonge – 5/2 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook

1:20 – Likely favourite Master McShee is now a non-runner. Willie Mullins has won six of the last ten renewals of the Moscow Flyer but Gordon Elliott has won the last two. The former saddles three in Ganapathi, Power Of Pause & Echoes In Rain. The first named is the choice of Paul Townend and comfortably won a Cork maiden on his hurdle debut 56-days ago. There should be plenty more improvement to come from the 5-year-old but on bare form he’s a few lbs to find with Power To Pause who is unbeaten on both starts over hurdles.

Elliott relies on Magic Tricks, a half-brother to stablemateAbacadabras. The 5-year-old made an impressive hurdle debut when winning a Navan maiden last month. The ground will be more testing today but he looks a smart prospect and probably should be favourite.

Of the rest Dreal Deal must be respected. He’s more experienced than his rivals, having had ten starts but he’s on an upward curve, having won his last two starts in handicap hurdle company. Soft/heavy ground really suits the 6-year-old who may not have reached his class ceiling just yet.

1pt win – Magic Tricks – 11/4 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook

3:50 – The 3m 1fAmateur National concludes the card. Screaming Colours won over C&D two starts back and then finished a respectable 2^nd of 12 to improving staying handicap chaser Stones And Roses, back here 17-days ago. He’s bang in form, goes well on heavy going and Patrick Mullins takes the ride. Plenty to like about the 10-year-old’s chance here.

The other I like is Fairly Legal, the mount of Derek O’Connor who has ridden three of the last five winners of the race, who seems to be running into form. He followed up a good run here when staying on into second, behind an improver in the valuable Foxrock Handicap Chase at Navan last month. Yet to win beyond 2m 4f, so stamina for 3m 1f must be taken on trust, but if he stays, he won’t be far away.  

1pt win – Screaming Colours – 6/1 @ Ladbrokes

This coming week is likely to be quiet on the selections front. But there will likely be a look ahead to the weekend post out on Wednesday with any ante post selections for the weekend’s big race action.

Cheers

John

Hi all,

It’s a quiet time of the year on the punting front for me and Saturday is no different.

I’m happy with 6/1 Make Me A Believer in the Grade 2 Leamington Novices’ Hurdle (2:25) at Warwick.

The big race of the day is Warwick’s Classic Chase (3.00). And over the Irish Sea at Fairyhouse it’s the Dan & Joan Moore Memorial Handicap Chase (2.15). The latter race has a strong ante post favourite in recent Caspian Caviar Gold Cup winner Chatham Street Lad. I have concentrated on three races at Warwick and one at Fairyhouse.

Warwick

The going is soft, heavy in places at Warwick some more rain is being forecast so it could be heavy by the start of racing.

1:15 – Edward Courage Cup Handicap Chase (Class 2) – 2m

Sky Pirate appreciated the drop back to 2m when beating eight rivals at Cheltenham last month. He’s up 11lb for that success but looks capable of better given he’s unexposed at 2m. The runner-up has since gone onto win at Sandown, off 3lb higher, so the form looks solid. He will be tough to beat.

He faces five rivals, including the improving Amoola Gold who is going the right way. Runner-up last time at Ascot but the first & third have won again so the form looks strong. Dan Skelton looks set to saddle stablemate Destrier. The 8-year-old returns from a 322-day lay off but ran well when a 3 length, 3^rd of 6 in the Haldon Gold Cup (soft) in November 2019. Might not want the ground to testing but he’s 5lb lower than on his seasonal reappearance last season and must be respected on his best form.

Previous C&D winner Generous Day has been struggling for form on his three starts this season and is 3lb out of the handicap here.

The biggest threat to Sky Pirate could come from Equus Miller.  The 7-year-old made it 2-4 over fences when beating five rivals at Haydock 28-days ago. The ground was heavy that day and if he can build on that performance in a better race he remains on a competitive mark.

Verdict: It’s hard to look beyond recent Cheltenham winner Sky Pirate but he’s not one I would ever want to take a short price on so Equus Miller looks a value alternative.

1pt win – Equus Miller – 6/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook

3:00 – McCoy Contractors Civil Engineering Classic Handicap Chase (Grade 3) – 3m 5f

Not the strongest of renewals of the race but thirteen go to post for what remains a competitive race.

Notachance heads the ante post market won a Class 2 handicap chase at Bangor in November. He’s up 7lb but is going the right way and goes well on soft ground. Trainer Alan King has saddled the winner of the race twice in his training and has a good chance of making it three.

Captain Chaos made a bold bid from the front in this race 12 months ago. This track really suits him and he must have a good chance of going one better in what looks a slightly weaker race. Blinkers return for the first time since winning at Doncaster in February.

Storm Control has won his last two starts both at Cheltenham. He’s looked much improved since going 3m+. He’s only 5lb higher than for the last of those wins and trainer Kerry Lee saddled the winner of this in 2016.

Le Breuil was due to run in the abandoned North Yorkshire Grand National on Thursday. The 9-year-old is having his first start since wind op and finishing 3rd of 14 in the Becher Chase at Aintree. He’s dropped down to a winnable mark and this a lesser race than last time. He probably needs to win this if he’s to get into the Grand National.

Achille only ran once last season when runner-up to West Approach at Cheltenham 427-days ago.  Finished lame after that race and hasn’t been seen since. The 11-year-old had looked progressive and is on a decent mark. Venetia Williams saddled the winner in 2013 so what’s needed to win the race.

Django Django beat the favourite at Newbury last season but pulled up in the Bangor race. Might have needed the run when staying on past tired rivals to finish 5th of 14 back at Newbury. The 8-year-old isn’t the most consistent and has yet to race beyond 3m 2f but shapes like this sort of trip could really suit. He looks well treated if it does.

Top weight Ballyoptic won a 3m handicap chase at Ascot in February, off 3lb lower and a 5lb conditional has been booked. Found the ground to quick on the Ladbrokes Trophy on his last start but will be more at home on testing ground. Despite not coming into the race in form can’t be dismissed.

Walk In The Mill fell at the sixth in his bid for a third successive Becher Chase at Aintree last month. The first-time blinkers replace the cheekpieces which makes him an interesting contender if his confidence has been dented. Yard in great form and must be respected.

2pts win – Notachance – 9/2 @ Coral

1pt each way – Ballyoptic – 20/1 @ William Hill (paying 5 places 1/5 odds)

Verdict: The favourite is a boring selection but I think he’s got a solid chance. Plenty have each way claims including top weight Ballyoptic who can get into the money if bouncing back to his best and Le Breuil who’s dropped down to a good mark.

3:35 – Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle (Pertemps Hurdle Series Qualifier) – 3m 1f

The 2019 Welsh Grand National Winner Potters Cross loves the mud and is just 3lb higher than when winning over hurdles at Chepstow last December. Well handicapped on his best chase form and can go well with the ground very much in his favour.

Ante postfavourite Come On Teddy made it 2-3 since racing 2m 7f+ when winning at Cheltenham last month. The 7-year-old is 7lb higher here but is improving and looks the right market leader.

Kepagge looked progressive when winning two heavy ground novice hurdles last season. Wasn’t seen at his best when 4^th of 9 in a slowly run race on his handicap debut/seasonal return at Cheltenham. 63-days ago. Step up to 3m 1f should suit the 7-year-old and if he improves for it he should be bang there.

Flemcara won at Doncaster (heavy) 18-days ago. He’s now 5lb higher but should run well if in the same form as last time.

Imperial Alcazar looked a smart staying prospect when winning a Leicester novice hurdle (heavy) last January. The 7-year-old was to keen but ran well for a long way on his handicap hurdle debut at Haydock 56-days ago. Stamina to prove at 3m 1f on testing ground but has a chance at the weights if he stays.

Tobefair is back down to his last winning mark and should run his race but he’s now an 11-year-old and remains vulnerable to any better handicapped horses in the field.

Verdict: Come On Teddy is unexposed over 3m and has solid claims. No stamina concerns for Potters Cross who will relish heavy ground. Kepagge has stamina to prove but will love the ground and can win this. Imperial Alcazar is another with stamina concerns but is a decent prospect who should be better for his Haydock reappearance.

1pt win – Kepagge – 8/1 @ Bet365

Fairyhouse

2:15 – Dan & Joan Moore Memorial Handicap Chase (Grade A) – 2m 1f

Sometimes it’s worth going with the obvious contender. Despite dropping back 3 ½ f in distance it’s hard to look past the claims of Caspian Caviar Gold Cup winner Chatham Street Lad here. The 9-year-old so impressive last time has only been raised 10lb for that Cheltenham but Simon Torrens takes off a handy 5lb and he remains on a winnable mark.  

The favourite faces fifteen rivals though, plenty of them are interesting with half of the field being out of the weights. It’s just a shame the race isn’t on ITV.

Joseph O’Brien has a couple of contenders in Entoucas & Front View. The former was 2^nd of 10 here over 2m last month. Just had the three starts of fences and can win races off his present mark. Front View won a a beginners’ chase at the same meeting as his stablemate. Handicap chase debut here and can land a decent pot over fences.

Fan De Blues, trained by Willie Mullins, remains a maiden after five starts over fences but has shown enough to think he can make his mark in the sphere. Looks interesting in the first-time hood and looks on a competitive mark. Stablemate Pont Aven has more experience over the larger obstacles and looked a real eyecatcher when 4^th of 17 over today’s distance at Leopardstown over Christmas. Looks on a workable mark although might need a bit further to take advantage of it, 2lb out of the handicap but has claims.

Kildorrery doesn’t find winning easy but has put in plenty of good performances in this type of race. The 8-year-old finished 4^th in this race 12 months ago and was a good third in a competitive handicap here last time. Tends to be held up well of the pace in his races which will always means his jockey has to time his challenge perfectly.  Despite being 4lb out of the weights he could get into the places.

Bel Ami De Sivola finished one place ahead of Kildorrery last time. A previous C&D winner that was his first start under rules since switching to Gordon Elliott. The 10-year-old has each way claims again, despite being 4lb out of the handicap.

Verdict: Despite his rise in the weights Chatham Street Lad is the one to beat. The Mullins pair Fan De Blues & Pont Aven shouldn’t be far away. Both Entoucas & Front View have each way claims as does last year’s fourth Kildorrery.

1pt each way – Pont Aven – 12/1 @ William Hill (paying 5 places 1/5 odds)

1pt each way – Kildorrery – 16/1 @ William Hill (paying 5 places 1/5 odds)

Cheers

John