Author: John Burke

Hi all,

Apart from a going change. The other big Cheltenham news is that Altior joins Energumene & Thyme Hill on the missing list. Trainer Nicky Henderson reported he returned an unsatisfactory scope on Monday morning.

There was an unexpected 10mm of rain at Cheltenham on Sunday night. That has changed the going too soft, good to soft in places.

Given the amount of rain Cheltenham has had this winter, they lost their last two meetings, it’s not so surprising that a few heavy showers can quickly change the going description. It was evident on Saturday at Sandown. The going was forecast to be good on Thursday but heavy showers changed the going to heavy come race time.

Cheltenham can dry out quickly at this time of year, particularly if there is plenty of warm sunshine and/or a strong wind. So, it’s not inconceivable that we could see good ground all over on Friday.

We won’t know how the ground is riding until after the first two races on the card but I suspect even with a dry day on Monday there will be significant ease in the ground.

The forecast for the rest of the week is mainly dry. However, as Sunday night showed weather forecasts are indeed just forecasts.

Cheltenham Festival – Day 1

1:20 – Sky Bet Supreme Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1) – 2m ½ f

Just the eight have been declared which is a disappointing turn out.

Appreciate It heads the market and rightly so on form. The ease in the going will suit the favourite but I’m not sure he’s that far ahead of Metier as the odds suggest.

Metier needs genuinely soft ground which he should get here. If you take away the yard form, which still isn’t great then, he’s got a good chance.

Verdict: Form of the Harry Fry stable is a slight concern but I’m going to take Metier to beat Appreciate It.

1pt win – Metier – 5/1 @ Bet365 & Coral

1:55 – Sporting Life Arkle Challenge Trophy Novices’ Chase (Grade 1) – 2m

A race that lost its gloss for me when when Energumene was declared a non-participant last week.

It could be a good start for favourite backers. With Shishkin long odds to do the Supreme/Arkle Double.

If Allmankind can get in a good jumping rhythm out in front he can give the favourite a race but I don’t see Shishkin losing unless the Henderson yard has issues.

Captain Guinness might well have finished runner-up to Energumene at Leopardstown last time but for falling two out. It’s hardly an ideal preparation for this but he’s talented and could be one for forecast players.

Verdict: Not sure about the well-being of the Henderson horses but I can’t really see beyond Shishkin. With a clear round Captain Guinness could give the favourite most to do. A no bet race for me though.

2:30 – Ultima Handicap Chase (Grade 3) – 3m 1f

This is more my sort of race. A big field handicap with sixteen runners.  My main fancy for this Lieutenant Rocco is now sadly a non-runner.

Happygolucky heads the market. Fourth in last year’s Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle. The 7-year-old is two from three over fences, including a win here in December, and is open to plenty more improvement on his handicap debut. Soft ground should be ok. Although his chance is enhanced by drying ground.

Aye Right runner-up in the Ladbroke Trophy and more recently in the Sky Bet Chase must be in the mix, despite being nudged up 3lb after his run at Doncaster. Given his good jumping he deserves to win a nice handicap pot and there would be few more popular winners than the 8-year-old.

One For The Team came in for good support in the Sky Bet Chase but could only finish 5^th. He probably found the ground too testing and appeals if he gets a sounder surface to race on.  Not sure the recent rain has helped the 7-year-old. However. he’s on a competitive mark if he gets his conditions and trainer Nick Williams saddled Coo Star Sivola to win the race in 2018.

Pym a winner on his seasonal reappearance at Sandown, ran flat when only 5^th of 10 in the Rehearsal Chase at Newcastle. The 8-year-old has some good form around here, beat Imperial Aura in a Novice Chase around here last season. Interesting when fresh with form figures 12121 off a 90+ day layoff.

Discordantly put in a career best on RPR’s when winning at Galway in October and wasn’t disgraced when 4^th of 22 in valuable Troytown Handicap Chase at Navan on his next star. The 7-year-old has failed to complete on his last two starts which is hardly a good preparation for this but I think he remains nicely treated if putting a clear round.

Verdict: I would love Aye Right to win but he tends to find one to good. One For The Team has a similar profile to the trainers previous winner. Happygolucky could be well-handicapped but the ease in the ground means he’s plenty short enough for me now. Good race if you like each way betting and both Discordantly & Pym could repay support.

1pt each way – Discordantly – 18/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportbook

1pt each way – Pym – 14/1 @ Ladbrokes (paying 5 places 1/5 odds)

3:05 – Unibet Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophy (Grade 1) – 2m ½ f

There should be plenty of pace on with the likes of Not So Sleepy, Aspire Tower and Goshen in the line-up.

Last year’s winner Epatante faces nine rivals in her bid for back-to-back Champion Hurdle success. After her impressive win in the Fighting Fifth Hurdle on here seasonal return it’s hard to imagine the mare is now as big as 7/2 for this. Her defeat when long odds in the Christmas Hurdle explains her price but there was a valid excuse for her run that day and she should make a bold bid to regain her crown.

Honeysuckle is a perfect ten out of ten over hurdles. Last season’s impressive Mares Hurdle winner has jumped better this season and put in a career best when winning the Irish Champion Hurdle at Leopardstown last month. The more rain the better for her and she’s the one to beat.

Goshen bounced back to form when winning the Kingwell Hurdle at Wincanton last month. The 5-year-old has that potential star quality but I wonder if the race will be run to suit and his tendency to jump right-handed isn’t a positive on the old course.

Last year’s runner-up Sharjah is likely to find today’s smaller field suits him better. Just like last year he comes into the race after a poor run at the Dublin Racing Festival. Another good run expected and he’s got each way claims.

Another with each way claims is Abacadabras. Last season’s Supreme Novices’ Hurdle runner-up was well beaten into second by Honeysuckle last time but a strong pace will suit the 7-year-old who goes well over C&D.

Verdict:  A strong forecast pace could set this up for a closer like Sharjah & Abacadabras.  Despite not having an ideal prep for this I’m going with Epatante to end Honeysuckle’s unbeaten run.

3:40 – Close Brothers Mares’ Hurdle (Registered As The David Nicholson Mares’ Hurdle) (Grade 1) – 2m 4f

Not a race I normally get involved in but it looks a good contest and at the prices I like a couple here.

Concertista last season’s mares’ novices’ hurdle winner is 2-2 this season and will be hard to beat over this distance

Roksana might be better at 3m these days but the rain has helped her cause back at 2m 4f and there is nothing between her and the favourite and official rating’s.

Last year’s Coral Cup winner Dame De Compagnie returns to hurdling after unseating her rider in a Grade 1 at Sandown last time. Has a bit to find on ratings with the front two in the market but she remains capable of better over hurdles.

Indefatigable won the Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle here 12 months ago. Her form figures at Cheltenham are 5121. Has run poorly on all three starts this season though. Needs a recent wind-op and a return to Cheltenham to help her return to form.

Concertista’s stablemate Great White Shark is interesting. Last season’s Cesarewitch winner was beaten favourite for the Grade 2 Galmoy Hurdle at Gowran Park on her return from a break. The ground was heavy that day so her performance can be possibly explained.  Third in last year’s Martin Pipe her hurdle form isn’t at the level of the likes of Concertista & Roksana yet but she’s’ open to improvement and has place claims.

Verdict: Roksana has been in good form stepped up to 3m this season and that maybe her best trip now. Concertista’s claims are clear. And I expect her stablemate Great White Shark to bounce back from a poor run last time Dame De Compagnie returns to hurdles and remains open to more improvement.

1pt each way – Great White Shark – 18/1 @ Bet365

1pt win – Dame De Compagnie – 7/1 @ Bet365

4:15 – Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle – 2m ½ f

A maximum field of 22 are declared to meet the starter.

As I said my initial race preview, a dart at one or two at big odds could pay dividends. Six of the last ten winners of the race were returned in the odds range 25/1 to 40/1 – 6 winners from 63 runners +132 (BFSP +232.42) 11 placed.

Zoffanien showed improved form when making a winning handicap hurdle debut at Naas (soft) on Sunday. The better ground seemed to suit the son of Zoffany and strongly run race seems likely to suit him.

An equally impressive last time out winner was the Dan Skelton trained Cabot Cliffs who made it 3-5 over hurdles at Warwick last week. He was quick and accurate over hurdles last time but it won’t be easy to dominate this field.

Paul Nicholls saddled the winner of the race in 2015 & 2016. The runner-up in 2014 and the third in 2013 (22/1). He’s got two entries in this year’s race:

Houx Gris who won a juvenile hurdle at Auteuil in October prior to joining the yard. And finished 3^rd of 8 in the Garde 1 Finale Juvenile Hurdle at Chepstow in January. He travelled well into the race that day and only faded out of contention after making a mistake two out. He’s been well backed this week for the race and looks a major contender.

The Dermot Weld trained Coltor got off the mark at the third attempt over hurdles when winning a Naas maiden 44-days ago, Zoffanien a close-up third. Won on the flat in the first-time visor last season and the headgear returns for the first time over hurdles.  A big player for a yard that prepare one for the festival.

Balko Saint, trained by Jane Williams, has improved with each start over hurdles and finished an excellent third in the Grade 2 at Cheltenham that Hell Red pulled up in. He looks the sort to improve with racing.

Joseph O’Brien saddled Battle Of Outlaws to win this in 2019. He runs Busselton who gets the first time cheekpieces for his handicap debut and Druid’s Altar. The latter is more exposed than most but comes into the race on the back of winning a Naas novice last month, beating Zoffanien in the process. He’s another who could improve for running in a big field handicap hurdle.

Verdict:  A wide open handicap. Houx Gris has been well backed in the ante post market and is likely on a good mark. Both Joseph O’Brien runners Busselton & Druid’s Altar have claims. Both Zoffanien and Coltor could be suited by a strongly run big field handicap.

1pt each way – Zoffanien – 25/1 @ Ladbrokes (paying 5 places 1/5 odds)

1pt win – Coltor – 10/1 @ Bet365

4:50 – Sam Vestey National Hunt Challenge Cup Novices’ Chase (Grade 2) – 3m 6f

My early fancy for the race Longhouse Poet doesn’t run. Still, I think this a decent renewal of the race.

Galvin trained by Gordon Elliott had been the ante post favourite for this since winning at Cheltenham last October. Runner-up to Imperial Aura here last season. He’s since been placed to win his last four starts. Soft ground a slight worry but the further he goes the better he looks and his dam won over 3m 4f.

Next Destination is 2-2 since going over fences after wins at Newbury and in a Grade 2 at Warwick. He looks a real stayer so should be suited by the race distance.

Lord Royal fell when looking the most likely winner on his chase debut at Thurles. Ran poorly at Naas on his next start (5/6) but ran much better when returning to that venue when 2nd of 9 in a beginners’ chase, one place ahead of The Big Dog, in January. He’s only a 6-year-old but he races like a thorough stayer and trainer Willie Mullins has won the race twice since 2013.

Remastered looked an ideal type for this race when making all to win the Grade 2 Reynoldstown Novices’ Chase. He jumped soundly that day and is another who look a real stayer. Best form has come with plenty give in the ground though.

Snow Leopardess has improved for going over fences. A winner of handicap at Haydock (soft) on just her third start over the larger obstacles. Ran well off a 9lb higher mark when 2^nd of 8 in the Rowland Meyrick at Wetherby. A sound jumper she should improve further for a real test of stamina. Could get into the money but trainer Charlie Longsdon is 0 winners from 66 runners 2 placed at the festival, sole previous runner in this finished 7^th (9/1).

Verdict: Galvin has been aimed at this all season and has rock solid claims. Next Destination is another with excellent claims but I’m a bit surprised that he’s displaced Galvin as race favourite. Lord Royal is open to improvement for the step up to 3m 6f. Remastered is 3-3 over fences and although it was a weak Reynoldstown Novices’ Chase that he won last time, he looks an ideal type of for this. Will the ground be soft enough for him? Snow Leopardess has place claims and could really appreciate the step up in trip.

Cheers

John

Hi all,

Running late this morning.

Yesterday’s selections where a bit like watching a moving a slow-motion car crash until Stormy Judge stayed on strongly to win the race of the day at Navan and was even returned a decent price at 8/1.

Just two days now to Cheltenham and the best of Sunday’s action is across the Irish Sea with the most valuable race being the Grade A Leinster National Handicap Chase (2:30), the supporting races include along a couple of Grade 3 contests at Naas. At Limerick there’s also Graded action with the highlights being a mares’ only Grade 2 Novices Chase and a Grade 3 mares’ only novice hurdle.

This side of the Irish Sea. Warwick has a competitive eight-race card and there’s all-weather action at Lingfield.

Naas

2:30 – BARONERACING.COM Leinster National Handicap Chase (Grade A) – 3m ½ f

Sixteen handicap chasers have been declared to run for the €47,200 winners prize, on going that is being described as soft to heavy.

There doesn’t look be any notable improving types among the runners. Willie Mullins has two of the leading fancies in Saturnas & Class Conti. The pair were 4^th & 3^rd respectively in the Thyestes Chase. The former shaped well in the first time cheekpieces but may prefer better ground. No issues with heavy for Class Conti and on this ground, I fancy he can finish ahead of his stablemate again.

Ten Ten was pulled up in Thyestes (7/1) but did better when 2^nd of 13 over hurdles at Fairyhouse 15-days ago. He’s one of six JP McManus owned runners in the field and is the choice of Mark Walsh. If you draw a line through his Thyestes run, he’s a contender and he did win a beginners’ chase here (2m 4f) last season.

Another JP runner Scoir Mear has been running well in handicap chases this season and the 11-year-old should give his running once again with Simon Torrens again taking off 5lb. Each way claims given his consistency.

Fitzhenry is on a competitive enough mark on the best of his form.He’s often run well in these valuable handicap chases but he’s been well out of form on his four starts this season. Over three years since last win and he’s edging down the weights. Rachel Blackmore has been booked for the ride and if the 11-year-old was to bounce back to form he would have a good chance.

The final McManus horse to interest me is Castle Oliver. The 7-year-old was well placed to win three times over fences in the early part of 2020, including a handicap chase here over 2m 4f. He was then sent off the 11/4 favourite for this but didn’t jump with much fluency and ran flat in finishing eighth. Didn’t run to badly on his seasonal reappearance, although his jumping was a bit rusty in the early stages, before pulling up before the last in the Punchestown Grand National Trial. That was his first start for 343-days so he should come on for it and isn’t without a chance if he does.

Smoking Gun bounced back to something close to his best when 3^rd of 8 at Cork three starts back. He was sent off the 3/1 favourite that and was again well fancied (10/1) when pulling up in the Thyestes on his next start. He was pulled up again Punchestown Grand National Trial on his last start. Likely on a workable mark but needs the addition of the first-time blinkers to work the oracle if he’s to win this though.

Rocky’s Silver ran well to finish runner-up in the Cork National (3m 4f) back in November. Returned to form, after two low key runs, when just touched off over an extended 2m at Thurles 17-days ago. Return this trip will suit given the 8-year-old is a strong stayer as will the soft/heavy ground.

Verdict: I can see both Fitzhenry & Castle Oliver coming back to form here and at the prices the latter makes each way appeal. Rocky’s Silver has solid claims back at 3m.

1pt each way – Castle Oliver – 16/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook (paying 5 places 1/5 odds)

1pt win – Rocky’s Silver – 9/1 @ Bet365

Hi all,

Another couple of selections from Naas and Warwick for you.

Naas

3:35 – Big King a winner on his handicap debut at Navan back in November. The 7-year-old improved again to finish 2nd of 20 in a valuable handicap hurdle at Leopardstown over Christmas. Nudged up just 4lb for that latest effort and provided the ground isn’t too testing looks capable of finding more improvement for the step up to 2m 3f today.

Top-weight Morosini has been a bit frustrating since winning a 2m 4f handicap hurdle at Cork back in January last year. A promising 4^th of 20 here over 2m 4f back in November. His last two starts have been over 3m which I don’t think he stays and he’s got each way claims back in trip today.

Verdict: Big King is a worthy market leader but an each way chance is taken with Morosini here.

1pt each way – Morosini – 12/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes (both paying 4 places 1/5 odds)

Warwick

4:15 – Flashjack – The 11-year-oldmight have reached the veteran stage but he’s twice won around here in the past, goes well on testing ground and returns to Class 3 company for the first time since winning at Haydock in December 2019, off 3lb higher. A thorough stayer, his form figures racing beyond 3m 1f are 111531. Granted his form of late has been poor but the yard is in much better form now and I think he’s far too big a price to ignore.

1pt each way – Flashjack – 20/1 @ Bet365

Cheers

John

Hi all,

It’s the last weekend before Cheltenham and Sandown and Wolverhampton provide Saturday’s action for ITV viewers. However, the day’s most valuable race is the Grade B Handicap Chase at Navan (4:30).

There are three competitive handicaps on the Sandown card and ITV are showing all three.

I’m going all in for a big day on Saturday with selections covering six races with five of them being on ITV.

Sandown

1:50 – European Breeders’ Fund Paddy Power ‘National Hunt’ Novices’ Handicap Hurdle Final (Grade 3) – 2m 4f

The form of this race is usually worth following going forward and it looks a typically competitive renewal of the race.

Fergal O’Brien saddled Barney Dwan to win this in 2016 and he’s got a big contender in Karl Philippe. The 6-year-old got off the mark at the third attempt over hurdles when winning at Exeter 27-days ago. He’s yet to run on ground better than soft but there should be enough juice in the ground for him. Needs to jump better than he did last time but he’s a nice prospect and can go close.

Gladiateur Allen was a recent eyecatcher on his handicap hurdle at Ascot last time. Taking on more experienced hurdlers he travelled through the race looking like a well handicapped horse. His early exertions took their toll in the later stages and he eventually finished 6^th of 15. Back against fellow novices today an remains capable of better.

Sam Barton also got off the mark at his third attempt over hurdles with a decisive win in a Doncaster maiden hurdle 43-days ago. The form of the race looks solid enough. Handicap Hurdle debut of what looks a fair mark and looks the sort to continue to improve with racing.

Verdict: Its likely we haven’t seen the best of Gladiateur Allen yet but my two picks in an open contest are Sam Barton & Karl Philippe.

1pt win – Karl Philippe – 6/1 @ Bet365

1pt win – Sam Barton – 10/1 @ Bet365 & Coral

2:25 – Paddy Power Imperial Cup Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) – 2m

I put up Natural History at 3/1 earlier in the week and you can get 9/2 about his chance with Paddy Power now. I still think he will take plenty of beating although I would like to have seen the Gary Moore yard have a winner this week.

Of the rest Malaya won the race in 2019, off 2lb lower. The mare has been more miss than hit since and was disappointing when only 8^th of 15 at Ascot three weeks ago. She has got each way claims if she was to bounce back to her best form.

Nigel Twiston-Davies has saddled the winner of the Imperial Cup twice since 2016. He saddles One True King here. The 6-year-old was in good form in the autumn winning two of his four starts and was only beaten a head in a Cheltenham handicap hurdle. Now 4lb higher after winning a Leicester novice in December. He didn’t jump well enough when a well beaten favourite in the Lanzarote Handicap Hurdle but fared better when 3^rd of 6 at Ascot back in novice company three weeks ago.

David Pipe won this in 2014 and he’s got a contender here with Leoncavallo. The 9-year-old made a good start for the trainer when winning twice on the flat and wasn’t disgraced when 6^th in the Cesarewitch on his last start. The 9-year-old goes well fresh and is on competitive enough mark for his return to hurdling. No issues with good to soft ground either.

Verdict:  I’m still happy with my number one pick Natural History but I’m going to add Leoncavallo who has plenty of form in big field handicaps in the past and goes well fresh and he could be another big Saturday winner for David Pipe.

1pt win – Leoncavallo – 17/2 @ paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook

3:35 – Paddy’s Rewards Club Novices’ Handicap Chase (Listed Race) – 2m 4f

Another good race to enjoy and plenty of the ten declared runners are in with a chance.

Belargus deservedly got off the mark at his eighth attempt over fences here last time. It was an impressive nine length success and he got the strong pace he needs that. The runner-up won here yesterday so the form looks solid enough. Up 9lb, and half a mile in trip and should get the race run to suit again.

No Getaway jumped his rivals into the ground when making all to win over C&D 23-days ago. Hiked up 10lb for that win but there should be more to come from the 8-year-old who is going the right way.

Admiral Barratry won a 2m 5f handicap chase at Fakenham two starts back and ran an improver to ¾ length back at the same venue 22-days ago.  Raised just 4lb for that effort but he’s only had three starts over fences and likely capable of more progression. Different track here but he’s a good jumper of a fence and finished 6^th of 18 in the Novices’ Handicap Hurdle Final on this card two years ago.

Annsam is a big chasing type who was progressive over hurdles last season. The 6-year-old put in an excellent jumping display for a novice when beating four rivals in a Ludlow beginners’ chase 87-days ago. The handicapper was certainly impressed as he raised him 12lb for that win. Opening handicap mark looks stiff but he looks the sort to improve further for going handicapping and is now 3-3 on soft.

Farinet made a promising start for Venetia Williams when 3^rd of 7 at Haydock 21-days ago. That was the 6-year-old’s first start for 221-days and he’s entitled to come on for that run. Might be better over further on this sort of ground but capable of a big run.

Up The Straight ran Umbrigado to 3 ½ lengths off level weights in a Fontwell novices’’ chase two starts back before being predictably outclassed in the Grade 1 Scilly Isles Novices’ Chase over C&D last time. Should do better now in handicap company for the first time and a reproduction of his run behind Umbrigado makes him look well handicapped. Now issues with good to soft ground either.

Stratagem beat two rivals, including recent easy Catterick winner Ballymoy,in a Doncaster novices’ chase last time. Handicap debut off what looks a stiff mark of 145 but the 5-year-old is lightly raced and capable of plenty more improvement over the larger obstacles.

Verdict: I can make a case for seven of the ten runners which is indicative of how competitive it is. Admiral Barratry, Annsam and Belargus have big chances here. At the prices I’m happy to go with the first two named.

1pt win – Admiral Barratry – 13/2 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook

1pt each way – Annsam – 14/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

Wolverhampton

The start of the new turf season and the Lincoln Handicap is just two weeks away and at Wolverhampton the highlights of a mammoth nine race card are the Listed Lady Wulfruna Stakes (2:05) and Lincoln Trial Handicap (2:40).

2:40 – Bombardier British-Hopped Amber Beer Lincoln Trial Handicap (Class 2) – 1m ½ f

Born To Be Alive has returned from a 896-days and seems to have retained plenty of ability as he showed when winning at Kempton last month. Up 5lb demands more but another bold show is expected.

Tadleel comes into the race seeking the hat trick after winning his last two starts at Newcastle both over 7f. Last time was a career best from the 6-year-old. On a career high mark now and 4lb higher than last time. Laura Pearson has been booked to take off 5lb which does negate the weight rise. Seemed to stay a mile at Lingfield three starts back and if he stays today’s extra distance won’t be far away. Richard Fahey trained the winner of this 2017.

Mission Boy finished runner-up in the Irish Derby as a 3-year-old. The 5-year-old has run well on both his starts since joining Marco Botti. Finished a 3-length 4^th behind Born To Be Alive last time and gets 6lb here. Botti had a handicap winner on Thursday and Ryan Moore has been booked for the ride but stall 13 isn’t helpful.

Man Of The Night is having his first start for 246-days and his first run on the all-weather. The colt put in a career best on RPR’s when 2^nd of 11 at Newmarket when last seen in action back in July. That performance came over 1m 2f so takes a drop in trip here. Likely there’s still a bit better to come from the 4-year-old who is being aimed at the Lincoln but if he’s fully tuned up won’t be far away.

Verdict: A tough race. If it wasn’t for the draw, I would really like Mission Boy. That leaves Tadleel and Man Of The Night for me.

1pt win – Man Of The Night – 6/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

1pt win – Tadleel – 13/2 @Bet365

3:15 – Betway Handicap (Class 2) – 6f

Summerghand last season’s Stewards Cup winner is sure to be popular here but does need a strong pace to chase which he might not get here.

A chance is taken with the Kevin Ryan trained Repartee. The 4-year-old was a useful juvenile who finished third in the Gimcrack Stakes at York. He looked set for a good season when winning a Listed race at Windsor on his seasonal return last June. Didn’t build on that performance on two subsequent starts, not beating a rival. He’s 2-2 first time and gets the first time cheekpieces for his all-weather and handicap debuts.

1pt win – Repartee – 6/1 @ Bet365 & Coral

Navan

4:30 – Irish Stallion Farms EBF Novice Handicap Chase Final (Grade B) – 3m

It’s a 3m handicap chase and the most valuable race of the day either side of the Irish Sea today, and I just couldn’t resist looking at it.

Atlantic Shore comes into the race in great form having won his last two starts at Punchestown over hurdles and fences. Stay’s 3m really well and has a big chance.

The likes of Forza Milan & Key Commander have each way claims.

Arverne beat Atlantic Shore at Punchestown back in December. The 6-year-old was hiked 10lb for that success but comes into the race on the back of a poor run over hurdles at Leopardstown last month. If he can improve his jumping there’s likely some scope off his new mark.

Enjoy D’allen has been in fantastic form this season and hasn’t finished out of the first two on his last six starts over fences. Runner-up here last time to a well handicapped horse over 2m 4 ½ f. He’s been nudged up another 1lb for a return to 3m and the first-time visor replaces the cheekpieces. If he stays, he can’t be ruled out.

Stormy Judge needed every yard of the 2m 4 ½ f when getting up to win here 41-days ago. Three miles could be his ideal trip and he will take some beating here.

The Dabbler was beaten just over seven lengths into 4^th behind Stormy Judge. He was another to be doing his best work at the finish that day. That was a career best over fences for the 8-year-old and he’s going the right way. On the negative side he’s 9lb out of the weights although the highly regarded Jordon Gainford takes off 7lb. Should get 3m and he could get into the places at big odds.

Verdict: Despite being out of the weights I could see The Dabbler out running his odds. Stormy Judge is going the right way and could improve for the today’s step up to 3m. The consistent Enjoy D’allen also can’t be ruled out on first start over 3m.

1pt win – Stormy Judge – 6/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

1pt each way – The Dabbler – 25/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes (paying 3 places ¼ odds)

Cheers

John

Hi all,

It’s a marathon not a sprint so while yesterday was disappointing, today is another day. There’s plenty of racing both sides of the Irish Sea but the standout race in terms of prize money is the Grade B Shamrock Handicap Chase at Gowran Park (3:55). My bet of the day though comes from Sandown.

Gowran Park

3:55 – Fifteen have declared for the race which is run over the intermediate trip of 2m 2f and the going is likely to be heavy, so stamina to see out the trip will be key.

Dinny Lacey has already show he’s better chaser than a hurdler. The 7-year-old won a Limerick novice chase (heavy) over Christmas. Out of his depth behind Envoi Allen in Grade 3 at Punchestown on his next start but bounced back to his best when runner-up to Farmix back at the same venue 26-days ago. Get’s the first time cheekpieces for his handicap debut and looks on a decent opening mark.

Minella Till Dawn bounced back to form when winning at Naas over 2m 4f last month. Up 6lb and down in trip. He’s not the most consistent of horses but e won’t be far away if in the right mood.

Kitten Rock is very well handicapped on his best form and Simon Torrens takes off a handy 5lb. Finished third behind Minella Till Dawn last time and gets a 10lb pull for an 11 ½ length beating. However, it’s five years since the 11-year-old won a race.

Goulane Chosen is another well handicapped horse. The 12-year-old is a previous C&D winner and finished 4^th of 9 at Thurles last month but didn’t really show there that he was about to hit winning form.

Kildorrery is talented enough and has plenty of form that would give him a chance here but he’s only 1-18 over fences and tends to be ridden with exaggerated waiting tactics. He’s got the right jockey on board in Denis O’Regan to carry out those tactics but looks likely to find a few to good.

The Chapel Field & Montagne D’argent were separated by a nose here over 2m and the latter gets 2lb here. Both have nice light weights here but need to find a little bit more improvement for today’s longer trip and latter looks the mostly likely to find it.

Arahecan has just had four starts over fences. Won a beginners’ chase at Down Royal on his second start over fences in December. Maybe the race came to quick for him but he was then well beaten Dinny Lacey at Limerick.  Bounced back form that poor run and looked set to go close back at Down Royal when falling two out. Could be on a good mark for his handicap chase debut but his jumping will be tested here.

Pont Aven looked a winner in waiting when 4^th of 17 at Leopardstown over Christmas and then went onto finish 2^nd of 14 behind the Daly Tiger in a better race at Fairyhouse. Pulled up as if something was amiss at Leopardstown at the Dublin Racing Festival. If you forgive him that run, he would be favourite here, and has got to be a contender.

Rebel Gold won a 2m beginners’ chase here 43-days ago. It was heavy that day so the going won’t trouble the 8-year-old who finished his race of strongly that day. Today’s extra two furlongs look a big positive and although he’s been raised 8lb for that success and must carry top weight here. He won’t be far away here, if he jumps as well as he did last time.

Verdict: Handicap debutants Dinny Lane & Rebel Gold are high on the shortlist. If you ignore his last run Pont Aven had been shaping like he would pop up in race like this. The Chapel Field & Montagne D’argent have similar chances and the latter has each way claims. Last time out winner Minella Till Dawn has an 8lb rise in the weights to contend with but if on a going day won’t be far away.

1pt win – Rebel Gold – 8/1 @ Bet365

1pt win – Pont Aven – 7/1 – Gen

Sandown

2:40 – Ten of the last twelve winners of this Class 3 handicap chase have been in the first two in the betting.

The Flying Sofa is just 1lb higher than when winning at Fakenham last January. Just two starts this season, the last of which came when finishing 4^th of 12 in a Kempton “Jumpers’ bumper” 29-days ago. Return to a sound surface is a positive, as his form figures on good, or good to soft are 31322121.  Yet to win going right-handed – 0-6 3 places – but set for a good run here.

Frero Banbou won twice over fences on soft ground when trained in France. The 6-year-old has run respectably on his two starts over fences for Venetia Williams with indicating that’s he’s well handicapped. Has had a wind-op since his last run at Haydock 83-days ago and good ground is a bit of an unknown.

2pts win – The Flying Sofa – 5/2 @ Bet365

Cheers

John

Hi all,

The heavy rain that fell at Catterick went against the two selections at the North Yorkshire track yesterday. However, it was much better news for the two selections at Wexford. A first and second isn’t too shabby. A bit late now but you don’t realise how close I was I was to making Bythesametoken a 2pt selection. Oh, well that’s racing.

I’m about to head into the busiest nine days of betting of the winter, if not the whole year, From today it will be TEN days of betting, only ending a week on Sunday with the Irish Lincolnshire at the Curragh. I know it’s hard to believe that the start of Irish Flat Season is just over week away. It will be rollercoaster 8 days that’s for sure, it always is but I’m expecting it to end in a tidy profit.

Wincanton

2:15 – Nine go to post for this Class 3 handicap chase and you can make a case for most of them.

Favori De Sivola has improved for going chasing, winning at Taunton (good) & over C&D (heavy) two starts back. Unseated his rider at the 12th at Hereford last time. Ground versatile, his jumping has been good apart from his last mishap. Lightly raced over the fences, just the four starts, the 6-year-old could yet rate higher.

Sandy Bay was only beaten a neck by Favori De Sivola at Taunton and gets a 14lb pull here. Not anywhere near that level of form on three subsequent starts. Although in his defence those runs came on soft & heavy ground and his best form has come on a sounder surface.

Putdecashonthedash put in a career best over fences when winning at Taunton 16-days ago. That was the 8-year-old’s first run since wind surgery. Up 5lb but the previous C&D winner should remain competitive, albeit his best form has come on soft and heavy.

Premiumaccess jumped well to win on his chase debut at Huntingdon in December and improved on that performance when finishing runner-up here over 2m 4f. However, he didn’t jump well enough when a well beaten 4th at Fakenham last time. Looks worth a try over this new distance and if he handles today’s quicker ground won’t be far away.

Onefortheroadtom isn’t the most reliable but he’s got the talent to win this, if on a going day. Won a handicap chase at Fakenham (good) 12 months ago, off 2lb lower. Well backed on both starts this year, 3/1 favourite at Newbury last time, suggests connections think the 8-year-old remains on a winnable mark. Likely to get his optimum conditions today and isn’t ruled out.

Verdict: Favori De Sivola is a worthy favourite and most likely winner. However, the change in underfoot conditions brings Putdecashonthedash right back into the mix.

2pts win – Favori De Sivola – 5/2 @ Bet365 & Paddy Power

1pt win – Putdecashonthedash – 5/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

Cheers

John

John

Hi all,

Two races have caught my eye today. One at Catterick and the other Wexford. Fingers crossed they haven’t had to much rain at Catterick.

Catterick

4:15 – Cooking Fat was a promising 4th at Doncaster, returning from 613-day break. He travelled well to three out, before a lack of condition took its toll on the 10-year-old.  Off for another 71-days since but he’s two from two at the track, including C&D and is 2lb below his last winning mark.

Be My Sea hails from the very much inform Tony Carroll yard. The 10-year-old is well suited good to soft ground and all his four career wins have come within 30-days of his last run. Not disgraced when 5th of 10 at Ascot on his last two starts over hurdles. Back down to his last winning mark and hasn’t been running to badly on the all-weather at Southwell on his last two starts.

Verdict: Both Cooking Fat and Be My Sea may have reached the veteran stage but they have dropped down to winnable marks.

1pt win – Cooking Fat – 7/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

1pt win – Be My Sea – 7/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

Wexford

3:25 – A tricky little handicap puzzle but just the sort of race I like to get stuck into.

Hybery won a maiden hurdle over C&D last August. He’s been running respectably in handicaps since and two starts back was an excellent 4th of 13, in a much better handicap at Fairyhouse. The drying ground will be in his favour today.

Humaniste beat Hybery by four lengths at Tipperary in October (good). Another who will be suited by good ground but Hybery gets a 5lb pull today and can reverse placings today.

Stand Off won a Clonmel maiden hurdle (heavy) three starts back. He’s been steadily progressive on RPR’s on two subsequent starts. And posted a career best when 5th of 18 at Naas on his handicap debut 10-days ago. He’s got a bit to find with one of today’s rivals Bythesametoken but he remains unexposed in handicaps. 

Bythesametoken is up 2lb for his excellent second at Naas. That was the 7-year-old’s first run for 112-days and both his career wins have come when racing within 16-days of his latest start.  There could be more to come from him today and he’s high on the short list.

Feelgood Island looked set for a breakthrough win over hurdles when falling two out at Clonmel but duly won in maiden company at Down Royal on his next start. He might we’ll have followed up on his next start in novice company but for a mistake at the last when 3rd of 13 at Naas 25-days ago. The winner You Raised Me Up is well fancied for next week’s Coral Cup (16/1) so the form looks solid enough. Handicap debut off a mark of 125 which looks more than fair to me.

Verdict: Course & distance winner Hybery has been run respectably in better handicaps and must be respected from the Willie Mullins yard. At the prices my two against the field are Bythesametoken and Feelgood Island. I find it hard to split the pair.

1pt win – Feelgood Island – 4/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

1pt win – Bythesametoken – 11/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

Cheers

John

Hi all,

No selections today but I do have an ante post selection for Saturday’s Imperial Cup at Sandown.

Sandown

2:25 – Paddy Power Imperial Cup Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) – 2m

Natural History, very useful on the flat when trained by Andrew Balding with an Official Rating of 101. He finished runner-up on his first two starts over hurdles in maiden/novice company but made no mistake when making all on his handicap debut at Plumpton last Monday. It was quick ground at Plumpton but his best form on the flat came on soft/heavy so he seems ground versatile.

After that win the trainer indicated that Saturday’s Imperial Cup at Sandown was on the 5-year-old’s agenda. Trainer Gary Moore like to have runners in the race since 2011 he’s had 8 runners with 3 placing. If Natural History does run on Saturday, he could be a very well handicapped horse. The bookies are taking no chances with his odds for the race and he’s a best priced 3/1.

I will probably go in again with another selection on the day but for now I want Natural History onside.

2pts win – Natural History – 3/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

Cheers

John

Hi all,

A dreadful Saturday for the service. It looked Special Prep was going to save the day in the Grimthorpe Handicap Chase at Doncaster. Jumping the last I thought he was going to get the better of Red Infantry but It was not to be, as the eventual winner found more in the final few strides, and Special Prep had to settle for the runners up spot. Taking the positive, it’s better to have a poor run before Cheltenham rather than have it during Festival.

Here’s hoping that Leopardstown can bring an end to this poor run today. There are a couple big field handicaps at the Irish venue that I have got stuck into.

Leopardstown

3:45 – Anton O’Toole Mares Handicap Hurdle – 2m 4f

The improving Klassy Kay has won two of her last three starts over hurdles. The 7-year-old has been raised 11lb for the last of those wins at Punchestown 49-days ago but is going the right way. Likely to face totally different ground to last time but if she handles it will take the beating here.

Strange Notions finished 5^th of 27 in a valuable mares’ only handicap hurdle here over 2m 2f last February before gaining her first success over hurdles at Thurles 12 months ago. She was in the process of running a good race on her seasonal return at Thurles in December, challenging for the places when falling at the last. Looked in need of further when 5^th of 10 back at the same venue (1m 7 ½ f).  Hugh Morgan takes off a handy 5lb, which gives the 7-year-old each way claims at the 12/1 available with Bet365.

1pt each way – Strange Notions – 12/1 @ Bet365 (paying 4 places ¼ odds)

4:50 – TRI Equestrian Handicap Chase (Grade B) – 2m 5 ½ f

Livelovelaugh returned from a 154-days break to finish a close-up 3^rd of 22 in a C&D handicap at the Dublin Racing Festival last month. The handicapper has only raised him 2lb for that effort but the 11-year-old is on a losing run that does go back three years. Clearly capable of going close again but on balance the 100/30 favourite is worth taking on.

Mitchouka’s sole win over fences came in a Thurles beginners’ chase last February but he’s run a several good races since. Sixth in the Paddy Power (3m) here back in December. He dropped back to 2m 1 ½ f for handicap chase here at the Dublin Racing Festival and was doing his best work at the finish when 5^th of 20, just two places behind Saturday’s Kelso winner The Shunter. Today’s intermediate trip could be ideal for the 7-year-old who will also like the drying ground.

Uisce Beatha put in a career best on RPR’s when winning a handicap chase here over 2m 1 ½ f at the Christmas meeting and wasn’t disgraced when 7^th behind Livelovelaugh over C&D at the Dublin Racing Festival. Just his third start for present trainer and could be capable of better. Ground should suit and Simon Torrens takes off a handy 5lb.

Midnight Maestro looked improved when winning a C&D handicap chase two starts back. Made a mistake at the 11^th and was soon pulled up when stepped up to 3m 4f in the Punchestown Grand National Trial. He didn’t seem to enjoy the soft ground last time and will find today’s underfoot conditions more to his liking. Up 9lb for his C&D win but remains on a competitive mark and can go well.

Verdict: Happy to take on Livelovelaugh here with Mitchouka, despite his price which contracted as I was writing this preview, Midnight Maestro and Uisce Beatha.

2pts win – Mitchouka – 5/1 @ Bet365

1pt win – Midnight Maestro – 10/1 @ Bet365

1pt win – Uisce Beatha – 8/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

Cheers

John

Hi all,

There’s some excellent money on offer at Kelso this afternoon and it’s good to see the course has been rewarded with some good field sizes. The best of the action is being covered by the ITV cameras who make a rare visit to Scottish track. And it’s there that I start today’s preview.

Kelso

2:05 – bet365 Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race) (Class 2) – 2m 5f

Flash Collonges a future chaser has done well to win two of his four starts over hurdles this season. Won despite looking green at Wincanton 56-days ago.  Handicap debut and capable of more improvement with racing but probably won’t find it easy to dominate this field as he did last time

Mega Yeats, twice a winner over hurdles when trained by Ruth Jefferson, ran a promising race on her first start for new trainer Mark Walford when runner-up in “Jumpers’ bumper” at Kempton last month. That was the mares’ first run since wind surgery and her first start for 425-days so she’s entitled to better today and must be high on the shortlist.

3:15 – bet365 Morebattle Hurdle (A Handicap Hurdle) (GBB Race) (Class 2) – 2m

The feature race of the Kelso card and indeed the day and it’s attracted a good-sized field of 14.

Your eyes are quickly drawn to Irish raider The Shunter.  Trainer Emmet Mullins bought over Cape Gentlemen over to win at Kempton last Saturday and has a good chance of another winner in the best race on the Kelso card. The Shunter won the Greatwood Hurdle at Cheltenham on his last start over the smaller obstacles and despite being 7lb higher looks set for another big run. The fancy prices available early in the week have long gone and it’s worth remembering that the 8-year-old will need a good strong gallop to chase like he got at Cheltenham.

Faivoir comes into the race looking for a hat trick after wins at Ludlow (soft) and latterly in Grade 2 novice hurdle at Haydock (heavy) back in January. No real surprise to see the 6-year-old so high up in the betting even though the ground is likely to be the livelier than last time. He did win a good ground maiden at Cheltenham in October.  A strong traveller he needs to improve again he should be seen to even better effect in a strongly run race.

Tommy’s Oscar, a winner of his first three starts over hurdles, wasn’t suited by the slow early gallop at Musselburgh last time but finished his race off nicely enough to finish runner-up to the progressive Bareback Jack.  Handicap debut off what looks a workable mark and a strongly run 2m can bring out a big performance in the promising 6-year-old.

Solo looked a smart juvenile prospect when winning the Grade 2 Adonis Hurdle 12 months ago.He’s not really built on that performance on four subsequent starts but he was rated 157 going into last season’s Triumph Hurdle and has now dropped down to 141 which looks more realistic. The 20/1 available early in the week has gone but anything above 12/1 looks fair.

Hunter’s Call doesn’t hold any secrets from the handicapper but the 11-year-old has run well on all three starts this season. He was 4^th behind the Shunter in the Greatwood and gets a 5lb pull for 6 ½ lengths. A strong traveller who doesn’t always find as much in a finish as he promises. He was travelling as well as the eventual winner two out but is effort flattened out at the last when 3^rd of 20 in the Lanzarote Handicap Hurdle back in January.

Verdict: Given the prize money on offer and the bonus of winning here and at Cheltenham.  It’s not surprising the race has attracted a competitive field of handicap hurdlers. The Shunter’s claims are clear for all to see but at the prices I can let him win. Solo has dropped down to a workable mark but has been disappointing this season and improving novices Faivoir and Tommy’s Oscar look the ones to be with.

1pt win – Tommy’s Oscar – 9/1 @ Bet365 & Coral

1pt win – Faivoir – 6/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook

Newbury

1:15 – BetVictor Veterans’ Handicap Chase (Leg 3 Of The Veterans’ Chase Series) (Class 2) – 3m 2f

Shantou Village is my idea of the best bet on Saturday. The 11-year-old showed he remains capable of a big performance in this type of race when a close-up 4^th of 12 in veterans chase at Chepstow back in October. His jumping has sometime let him down none more so than when making a mistake at the last when challenging in the 2019 Kerry National at Listowel, off 9lb higher. Seven of his eight career wins have come on good ground so underfoot conditions are in his favour here. Millie Wonnacott takes off a handy 7lb and trainer Neil Mulholland is among the winners so there’s plenty to like about his chance in this.

2pts win – Shantou Village – 4/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

1:50 – BetVictor Greatwood Gold Cup Handicap Chase (Grade 3) – 2m 4f

Despite the drying ground fourteen have been declared for Newbury’s feature race and it looks a competitive renewal. Paul Nicholls has a tremendous record in the race winning eight of the last 11 renewals – 8 winners from 23 runners +52.83 10 placed and all eight winners were aged six to eight.

He saddles two Grand Sancy & Capeland. Not surprising then that he has the market leader in Grand Sancy. The 7-year-old is 2-6 over fences and makes his handicap debut off what looks a competitive mark off 149. He returns from a 119-day break, has won twice off longer absences in the past and goes well on decent ground. Plenty to like about his chance here. Stablemate Capeland can’t be totally dismissed but all his wins over fences have come right-handed and the favourite looks the stables number one.

Umbrigado made it 2-3 over fences when winning on his handicap chase debut at Wetherby 17-days ago. He’s only been raised 5lb for that success and remains on a winnable mark for s return to 2m 4f. Slight concern about good ground, both chase wins have come on soft and heavy, but apart from that the strong travelling 7-year-old is going the right way.

Killer Clown is another promising handicap chaser going the right way. The 6-year-old seemed well suited by a flat track and better ground (good to soft) when winning at Kempton on Boxing Day. A good jumper of fence, when he gets his conditions. He’s been hiked up 15lb for his Kempton win but remains a strong contender.

Pistol Whipped returned from a 301-day break with a promising 2^nd of 8 at Kempton 56-days ago. Having travelled powerfully he looked to be coming to win his race at the last but the winner found a bit more on the run in. Unexposed over fences going/distance are fine and although he’s 5lb higher he remains a winnable mark.

Senior Citizen is also suited by going and distance. The Alan King trained 8-year-old beat four rivals on his seasonal return in a novice chase at Newton Abbot (good) back in September before finishing runner-up under a double penalty at Huntingdon. Looked the most likely winner coming to three out in the Grand Sefton Chase at Aintree but likely found the ground to soft and eventually faded to finish 7th. Has been given a 91-day break and if he jumps as well as he did at Aintree has a good chance.

Another Crick jumped and travelled well when comfortably winning at Kemptonin February 2019. Returned from 654-day absence when a promising second over hurdles at Uttoxeter back in December and built on that promise when 4^th of 12 behind Two For Gold at Warwick 19-days ago. He should be spot on fitness wise today. He’s won here over fences will enjoy the sounder surface and likely has a decent pot in him

The Big Bite beat Senior Citizen in a Doncaster beginners’ chase last January although it was Senior Citizen’s first start over fences. The 8-year-old made a winning first start for new trainer Henry Oliver when winning at Aintree in November and bettered that performance when putting a career best effort on RPR’s when runner-up to the improving Ibleo at Doncaster. Going the right way and if his jumping holds up should be in the mix.   

Verdict: If all fourteen take their place in the line-up then this looks the toughest race of the day and I can make a case for more than half of the field. Grand Sancy looks on a decent mark for his handicap debut and can give trainer Paul Nicholls yet another win in the race. Both Umbrigado and Killer Clown are going the right way although but the former may find the going lively enough.  Another Crick could be looks set to be on the premises on ground that suits, if building on his recent Warwick effort. A sounder surface will also suit Senior Citizen who travelled through the Grand Sefton like he was on a good mark.

1pt each way – Another Crick – 11/1 @ Coral (Paying 4 places 1/5 odds)

1pt win – Senior Citizen – 7/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

1pt win – Grand Sancy – 5/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook

Doncaster

It’s the two handicap chases that have interested me at Doncaster this afternoon. The field sizes are disappointingly small, just seven declared for each race, but that hopefully has made it easier for my two fancies.

2:55 – Virgin Bet Handicap Chase (GBB Race) (Class 2) – 2m ½ f

Ballywood sixth in last season’s Grand Annual Handicap Chase at the Cheltenham Festival, off 7lb higher, hasn’t built on the promise of his seasonal return at Fontwell back in September. A previous C&D winner over fences the 7-year-old returned from a wind-op with an encouraging run in a “Jumpers’ Bumper” at Kempton last month. Best form on a sound surface. If he can build on that Kempton run back over fences, he’s feasibly handicapped here.

1pt win – Ballywood – 4/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

3:30 – Virgin Bet Grimthorpe Handicap Chase (GBB Race) (Class 2) – 3m 2f

A disappointing turn out of just seven for this year’s Grimthorpe Handicap Chase. Clashing with the Kelso Premier Chase (2:40) clearly hasn’t helped with the race numbers with Cloth Cap heading up to Scotland rather coming here for which he was a shot priced favourite early in the week.  

Chidswell is thoroughly exposed handicap chaser but did win this race, off 3lb lower two years ago and finished 3^rd of 12 in last years Sky Bet Chase here last season. The 12-year-old made a promising return to action after a 273-day break when 3^rd of 8 at Kelso back on October. Drying ground is a big positive, race win came on good ground, and he looks weighted for a big run.

The outsider of the field is Special Prep who’s another who likes good ground and is a previous C&D winner has had a couple of down the field efforts in “Jumpers’ bumpers” in 2021 and should at least be spot on fitness wise. The 9-year-old isn’t totally out of what looks a weak renewal of the race, if returning to his best form of two seasons back and Jack Tudor takes off a handy 3lb.

1pt win – Chidswell – 6/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook

1pt win – Special Prep – 12/1 @ Bet365

Cheers

John

Hi all,

Two-day meetings at both Newbury and Doncaster get under way on Friday and although it looks one of the weakest weekends of the winter jumps season quality wise. We are in the “pre-Cheltenham fallow period” and if the field sizes hold up the racing remains competitive and still offers plenty of good betting opportunities.

All the Cheltenham trials are done and dusted and now it’s time for the Aintree hopefuls to put in final preparations for next month’s meeting. At Doncaster the feature race is Grimthorpe Handicap Chase (3.30) at Doncaster. There’s also a decent card at Newbury with the highlights being another Veterans Series Handicap Chase Qualifier (1:15) and the Greatwood Gold Cup (1:50).

The best meeting of the weekend though is up at Kelso. The Scottish track plays host to a bumper eight race card with some good prize money on offer. The feature race of the card is a competitive looking Morebattle Handicap Hurdle (2.40).  The ITV cameras are covering four races form Kelso as well as the best of the action from Doncaster & Newbury, as part of nine race programme.

No joy yesterday so I’m going to Newbury and Doncaster to regain the winning thread.

Newbury

Heavy showers at Newbury means the firm has gone out of the going description and it’s back to good to soft, good in places.

3:00 – Irish Thoroughbred Marketing Handicap Chase (For The Geoffrey Gilbey Trophy) (Class 3) – 2m ½ f

The slight ease in the ground will suit previous C&D winner Defi Sacre who has eased back to a winnable mark. He came up against a couple of progressive rivals when 3^rd of 9 at Musselburgh 27-days ago. It was a joint career best effort from the 8-year-old and if there is some soft in the going description he can win again.

Shut The Box ran Funambule Sivola to ½ length over C&D on just his second start over fences two starts back and ran well when 3^rd of 13 in a “Jumpers’ bumper” at Kempton 22-days ago. A sound surface suits and the 7-year-old looks on a good mark back over fences.

Verdict: Shut The Box is on a good mark and looks a worth favourite. However, I’m going with Defi Sacre. He might be vulnerable to any improvers in the field but is back down to a winnable mark and the yard has it’s horses in the winners.

1pt win – Defi Sacre – 5/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook

3:35 – Outonpatrol returned from a 291-day break to win a Warwick handicap hurdle (good) back in September. The mare also went on run well on her two subsequent starts in the autumn. Returns from a 113-day break here and today’s sounder surface will be in her favour. First run beyond an extended 2m 5 ½ f under rules but she did win a point over 3m (good) so has a decent chance of staying 3m.

Howling Milan’s four best RPR’s have come at Newbury. He was three lengths clear and looked set to win here last December, off 3lb higher, and finished 2^nd of 16 over C&D 12-days ago.  Can race off the same mark and capable of going close here although he did have a hard race last time.

1pt win – Howling Moon – 4/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

4:10 – Song Of The Hunter & Guernesey were second & third at Warwick 18-days ago.  The former finished 3 ½ lengths ahead that day but at the revised weights there shouldn’t be much between the pair. Over this slightly longer trip and at the prices I think Guernesey can reverse placings with his old rival here.

1pt win – Guernesey – 7/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

Doncaster

4:30 – Normandy Soldier – Shaped with promise when 4^th of 11 on his chase debut at Taunton back in November. All the fences had been omitted in the back straight that day due to low sun and the race developed into a sprint for home coming to the third last. Never got involved on his next start at Exeter but it was very testing that day. A sounder surface and a decently run race should see a much better run from the 7-year-old who gets a first-time tongue tie and cheekpieces and looks on a decent mark. It will be interesting to see if there is any market support for him today.

1pt win – Normandy Soldier – 11/1 @ Bet365

Cheers

John