Author: John Burke

Hi all,

A quiet start to the week on the selections front. However, there are going to be plenty of betting opportunities over the Bank Holiday Weekend.

I have a selection from Kempton’s evening meeting.

Kempton

5:45 – There’s No Danger was well backed to win a 6f Redcar Nursery when last seen in action 156-days ago. He’s been raised 5lb for that success which demands further improvement from the 3-year-old which is possible given he’s just had the five career starts. It’s just his second start on the synthetics, was well beaten on Wolverhampton’s tapeta surface. Step up to 7f is a bit of an unknown but he’s bred to stay a mile and was staying on strongly at the end of his Redcar run. Stall 7 could be better but on the plus side James Doyle is an interesting jockey booking. It will be interesting to see how he fares in the pre-race betting.

1pt win – There’s No Danger – 4/1 – Gen

Cheers

John

Hi all,

More competitive racing on Sunday and I have selections from Ascot and Doncaster.

Ascot

2:45 – Betfred Juvenile Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race) (Class 2) – 1m 7 ½ f

Trainer John Quinn saddled the winner of this race in 2013 and he’s got a lively contender in First Impression. Useful on the flat the 4-year-old has only had the three starts over hurdles. First run since winning at Wetherby 123-days ago. Needs to jump with more fluency than he did last time but if he does, he looks on a good mark for his handicap hurdle debut.

Paul Nicholls has saddled the winner twice since 2016 and he runs Siroco Jo who bounced back from a poor run at Kempton when winning at Newbury 23-days ago.  Handicap debut today on ground that suited last time.

Top weight Tinnahalla won at the third time of asking over hurdles when winning at Catterick 51-days ago. The ground was heavy that day but his best form on the flat came on a sounder surface so he should be fine on today’s likely quicker ground. Raised 16lb by the handicapper for his Catterick success but looks capable of going well.

1pt win – Tinnahalla – 7/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook

1pt win – First Impression – 10/1 @ Bet365

Doncaster

3:05 – Thibaan looked an improver when winning over C&D (good to firm) on his handicap debut last August. Not at the level of form on two subsequent starts but has had a wind-op since his last run. Just 2lb higher than for his last win and provided the going doesn’t ease looks set for a good run here. Worth a bet on good or better.

Throne Hall a winner at Hamilton last August ran Ilaraab to a neck at Beverley on his final start last season.  That one went on to win valuable handicaps at Newbury & York and is now rated 102. Throne Hall is just 5lb higher now and was gelded at the end of last season.

1pt win – Throne Hall – 9/2 @Coral & Ladbrokes

4:50 – Green Power was beaten just ¾ length into fourth in this race in 2019 and is also 6lb below his last winning mark. Shaped with a bit of encouragement when 5^th of 7 at Chelmsford 15-days ago. That run should have blown away the cobwebs and should be in the mix.

Dual C&D winner, including this race in 2017, Wentworth Falls is on a competitive mark for his seasonal return and won’t be far away if fully tuned up. At his best good or quicker ground his chance likely depends on the ground not easing too much before post time.

1pt each way – 14/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes (both paying 4 places ¼ odds)

Cheers

John

Hi all,

It’s the start of the British flat season at Doncaster today. There’s also a good card of all all-weather at Kempton. For jumps fans there’s also second day of racing at Newbury. All the best of the action is being covered by ITV in an eight-race programme.

There’s also good racing on Sunday with another day’s flat racing at Doncaster, a good jumps card at Ascot, the Northern Lights Series Final races for the chasers at Carlisle. As well as flat action at Naas, including the Group 3 Park Express Stakes, and a jumps card at Limerick.

I have had a look at some of the handicaps from all three Saturday meetings. Although it’s actually not a big betting day for me.

Doncaster

2:35 – Unibet Spring Mile Handicap (Class 2) – 1m

Anythingtoday’s best form has come over 1m 2f, he even won over 1m 4f in 2019, two pieces of form at York last August/September make him look competitively treated here and he looks worth go over what should be a strongly run mile. Adam Kirby is an interesting jockey booking for the 7-year-old who is on a mark he can win off.

Mascat’s last win came on his second start as a juvenile and he was 0-7 last season but did put in a career best effort when running the well handicapped Brentford Hope to ¾ length at Haydock in October. Has been gelded over the winter and could be capable of more progress as 4-year-old.

Verdict: There should be plenty of pace in the race and my two against the are Anythingtoday and the newly gelded Mascat.

1pt each way – Anythingtoday – 25/1 @ Bet365 (paying 5 places 1/4 odds) – Sky Bet are 20/1 (paying 7 places 1/5 odds)

1pt win – Mascat – 11/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

3:10 – Unibet Lincoln (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) – 1m

I have already previewed the rave early in the week. King Ottokar my initial ante post selection would probably prefer more juice in the ground and according to trainer Charlie Fellowes won’t run if the ground is deemed too quick. My other ant post fancy Brunch is fine on a sound surface and should give us a good run for our money. Of the rest Danyah has only raced twice over a mile and looks capable of more improvement if he gets a strongly run race.

Verdict: It should be run at decent gallop. Not sure about the ground for King Ottokar. I am happy with Brunch and Danyah who gallops rather than quickens will be suited by a strongly run race.

Kempton

2:15 – Ladbrokes Rosebery Handicap (London Middle Distance Series Qualifier) (Class 2) – 1m 3f

Al Zaraqaan, trained by William Haggas, won a novice over C&D last November and the followed up with a win on his handicap debut a month later. He’s only been raised 5lb for his last win and looks to have plenty of scope for further improvement as a 4-year-old. Will be tough to beat.

Almighwar is 2-3 here, both wins coming over 1m 4f, but did struggle on his handicap debut off 2lb higher back in October. First run since and looks another capable of improving as a 4-year-old.

United Front was only beaten a neck at Chelmsford 9-days ago.  Was keeping on over 1m 2f that day and if he stays today’s extra furlong could get into the money.

2:45 – May Sonic looked to put in a career best effort when making all to win over C&D 38-days ago. He’s up 4lb but the 5-year-old is going the right way.

Lord Rapscallion wasn’t inconvenienced by the drop back to 6f when 4^th of 8 at Wolverhampton two weeks ago. He’s dropping to a winnable mark and shouldn’t be far away again.

Gulliver a previous winner over C&D was a shade unlucky when beaten a ½ in a Conditions race over C&D in January. Two poor runs over 7f can be excused and although the 7-year-old does need a strongly run race and all the cards to fall right he’s on a competitive mark when they do.

1pt win – Gulliver – 8/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

Newbury

2:50 – BetVictor Novices’ Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race) (Class 2) – 2m 3f

Good Ball won over an extended 2m here in December and improved further when runner-up to Gowel Road here last month.  The front two pulled away from the third that day and the form looks solid. Step up to 2m 3f can bring out more improvement in the 4-year-old on his handicap debut.

One True King was in good form on good/good to soft going in the autumn. The return to a sounder surface looks a positive and he’s a tough horse to pass when getting an uncontested lead. That’s not certain as there are few in the race who like to go forward.

Mount Windsor has been very well placed to win four handicap hurdles. Up 13lb and in a much deeper race here but given his level of improvement and good form can’t be ruled out with Fergus Gillard taking off a handy 5lb.

3:20 – EBF BetVictor ‘National Hunt’ Novices’ Mares’ Hurdle (A Limited Handicap) (Grade 2) (Series Final) – 2m 4 ½ f

A tricky looking mares’ only handicap.

Rose Of Arcadia looks on a good mark for handicap hurdle debut if she handles today’s good to soft ground but did look at home on heavy ground when winning a Wincanton novice 51-days ago.

Misty Whisky a winner at Uttoxter & Ludlow (soft) at the end of last year before putting a career best effort when 2^nd of 20 in the Lanzarote Handicap Hurdle at Kempton two starts back. Ran well when third in a Grade 2 at Sandown last time despite not jumping that well. Best form has come on soft ground so any juice in the ground is a positive for her.

Marada has won three of her six starts since going hurdling this season and put in a career best effort on RPR’s when winning a Huntingdon novice hurdle 20-days ago. Good/good to soft ground suits the 6-year-old and she maybe capable of better returned to handicap company. Trainer Dan Skelton won this in 2018 with Roksana.

Verdict: Misty Whisky has arguably the best form in the race but might need softer ground and really needs to jump better than she did last time. Rose Of Arcadia could be the best handicapped mare in the race but needs to show she’s as effective on a sounder surface. Marada has been in consistent this season and should like the ground.

1pt win – Marada – 7/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

Cheers

John

Hi all,

It’s the Northern Light Series (Hurdles) Finals Day at Musselburgh this afternoon. There’s also a decent seven race card at Newbury and that’s were today’s selections come from.

Newbury

1:00 – Two well treated horses in this Class 3 handicap hurdle if they can bounce back to form.

Hang In There has been struggling of late but can race off a 10lb lower mark than he started the season. Good ground fine and if he’s allowed an uncontested lead, which could happen as the pace is forecast to be weak, then he could capitalise on it.

Sebastopol was an improving handicap hurdler last season winning the Class 2 Scottish County Hurdle last February. Struggled for form on three starts this season but this is the 7-year’s second run since a wind op. he likes top of the ground, is back down to his last winning mark and is worth another chance.

1pt win – Hang In There – 9/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

1pt win – Sebastopol – 13/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

2:40 – Buster Thomas returned from a 597-day break in good form last summer/autumn without winning. Pulled up at Ludlow on soft ground when last seen in action 100-days ago but a return to a quicker surface is a big positive and he’s down to his last winning mark.

1pt win – Buster Thomas – 13/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

Cheers

John

Hi all,

No selections today but I will be back tomorrow. However, I do I have another ante-post selection for Saturday’s Lincoln Handicap.

The flat is back on Saturday and with it the first big betting race of the season the Lincoln Handicap. When I began my punting journey in the 80s the Lincoln had a lively ante post market and was part of the “Spring Double” along with the Grand National. In recent years that hasn’t been the case. The race has lost a bit of its lustre and you don’t hear too much about the spring double either.

Hopefully some of you got on the 14/1 ante post on King Ottokar for the Lincoln. The 5-year-old has been well backed this week and is now as low as 7/1 for Saturday’s big race. Although you can still 9/1 in a few places.

Unibet Lincoln Handicap

The going at Doncaster is good for the start of the flat season. It’s set to be mostly dry but some showers are forecast for Friday.

It looks a strong renewal of the race. Apart from King Ottokar there are plenty of others in with a chance. Here are my thoughts on those at the front of the market.

Eastern World heads the ante post betting. A winner in Meydan last month. He bids to give Charlie Appleby a third win in the race and James Doyle a hat trick of wins. The trainer’s Secret Brief also won at Meydan before taking this in 2016.

Haqeeqy, a winner here over 7f last September, has got stamina to prove but the 4-year-old will have assistance of promising 7lb apprentice Benoit De La Sayette in the saddle.

Brentford Hope finally put in the performance that connections had been expecting when appreciating the drop back to a mile at Haydock (heavy) in October. He’s up 8lb and the ground will be different to last time but he could be Group horse in the making.

Danyah will like the good ground. He gallops rather than a quickens so a strongly run race would see him at his best.

River Nymph has been tipped by Hugh Taylor in his At The Races column. He seems on a good mark but maybe better at 7f.

Trainer Michael Dods hasn’t had a runner in the Lincoln since saddling Sweet Lightning to success in 2011. He saddles Brunch who developed into a smart handicapper last season. Brunch will appreciate the drying ground he’s 2-3 on good or quicker and he also win first time up last season. He’s on a decent mark and looks capable of a bit more improvement as a 4-year-old and shouldn’t be far away on Saturday. The 16/1 available with William Hill looks a bit of each-way value to me.

I may have another selection to add to King Ottokar & Brunch on the day.

1pt each way – Brunch – 16/1 @ William Hill (paying 4 places ¼ odds)

Cheers

John

Hi all,

Almost at the end of a challenging week. Probably the worst week the service has endured in years. I’m planning a few days off to recharge the batteries but will be back for the start of the flat turf season at Doncaster next weekend.

Before that I have one final attempt to end the week on a winning note. The Irish flat season starts at the Curragh on Sunday, with feature race, of a competitive eight-race card, being the Irish Lincolnshire. Interestingly Ryan Moore has gone over for four rides for Aidan O’Brien, including a ride in the first 2-year-old race of the new season. And a ride on the superbly bred Joan Of Arc, full sister to Gleneagles, who holds an English 1000 Guineas entry.

The second most valuable race of the day is the Randox Ulster National at Downpatrick which has attracted a field of 15 handicap chasers.

I have selections from both meetings.

Curragh

4:10 – Paddy Power Irish Lincolnshire (Premier Handicap) – 1m

Gee Rex heads the market. A winner of C&D handicap last summer (good) when trained by Joseph O’Brien. Now with the shrewd Emmet Mullins he recent prep over hurdles at Leopardstown and should be spot on fitness wise for this. Can win races for new connections this season.

Teed Up improved on his last four starts in 2020 with form figures 1121 and hasn’t finished outside the first two on all his six starts. Ended last season with a heavy ground success over an extended mile at Galway. Up 3lb for his Galway win and should continue to improve further as a 4-year-old.

Maker Of Kings looked unlucky in a C&D handicap last September and followed up at Tipperary, beating Teed Up by 1 ¼ lengths.  Must give 3lb to Teed Up here but there shouldn’t be much between the pair here. Trainer Ger Lyons saddled the winner of this in 2017 & 2019.

Michael Mulvany saddled the winner in 2018 and he’s got a couple of lively contenders In From The Cold & Comfort Line.  Both his runners have been trained for the race and have live chances.

In From The Cold made a winning seasonal reappearance at Naas last March and ended the season with another win at the venue. A very tough horse who likes testing ground and looks to have a handy low draw in stall 2.

Comfort Line also has a decent draw in stall 3. Ended last season when making all to win over 7f at Gowran Park (heavy).  Looks the sort who can improve as a 4-year-old and after his Gowran Park win the trainer told the Racing Post “The Irish Lincoln is the plan for him”. Dylan Browne McMonagle has been booked to take of a handy 5lb.

Shelia Lavery saddles a couple of lively outsiders in Quizical and Breaking Story and latter looks the most interesting of the pair. Breaking Story is just 1-14 on the turf but he often runs well in these types of handicaps and posted his best RPR when 3^rd of 20 in the Irish Cambridgeshire over C&D. (heavy) last August. He was only beaten ¾ length at the finish and can race off 4lb lower here. The only negative his draw in stall 27.

Verdict:  I really like the claims of Teed Up and I hope he can win. Michael Mulvany has a couple lively outsiders in In From The Cold & Comfort Line. On drying ground, I just prefer the claims of Comfort Line who has also the added assistance of a talented 5lb claimer in the saddle. Another capable of a bold show is the nicely treated Breaking Story but his high draw is off putting.

2pts win – Teed Up – 6/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

1pt each way – Comfort Line – 40/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook (both paying 6 places 1/5 odds)

5:10 – Breaking News is second reserve so probably won’t get into the race. The filly gained her first success at the 12^th attempt when winning a 6f Naas maiden(heavy) on her final start of 2020. That was her first run over 6f and she improved for it. Unexposed over sprint trips she looks capable of winning a soft/heavy ground sprint handicap this spring.

1pt win – Breaking News – 13/2 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook

Downpatrick

3:47 – Randox Ulster National Handicap Chase – 3m 4 ½ f

The going is yielding for this marathon trip and it looks a good renewal of the race. 

Shady Operator heads the market. The 8-year-old won a Cross Country at Punchestown last time and trainer Edna Bolger saddled the winner of this race in 2015.  Decent chance of staying 3m 4f and looks set to go well.

Space Cadet won this 12 months ago, off 4lb lower.  Finished 6 ½ lengths behind Shady Operator at Punchestown but that was only his second start back since winning this race and should be fitter for it. The blinkers he wore for the first time when winning this last year return for the first time since.

Fag An Bealach won a beginners’’ chase here on her debut over fences but hasn’t built on her win in novices handicap chase at Naas in November. On pedigree she’s bred to stay well and trainer Arthur Moore is 2-4 with his runners in the past 14-days.

Mon Lino just the 1 win from 15 starts over fences but has good form in valuable handicap chases, finished 3^rd of 14 in the Leinster National 12 months ago and showed he’s well suited to a test of stamina when runner up in a valuable 3m 5f handicap chase at Fairyhouse last season. Has placed on both his last two starts over hurdles and must be respected here with Simon Torrens taking off a handy 5lb.

Nick Lost ran with plenty of encouragement on his first start back after a 668-day absence at Thurles two starts back. Never got competitive and was pulled up in the Grand National Trial at Punchestown just 18-days later. The 9-year-old has a few questions to answer after that performance but it’s possible he bounced. All three of his career wins have come on good ground.

Mervyn Torrens saddled the winner of this in 2011 and he runs Askann here. The mare put in a career best when 3^rd of 20 at Leopardstown two starts back. She disappointed on her return from 67-day break when 7^th of 9 in mares only handicap chase at Navan 15-days ago. Handles a sound surface and has shaped like she can stay further than 3m.

Keith Watson won this in 2019 with Amaulino who also finished runner-up in last year’s race. He runs again here and must be respected. However, he may have better each-way contender in Frankly All Talk. The 8-year-old is 2-9 over fences and wasn’t disgraced when 4^th of 15 at Punchestown in December. Two runs over hurdles since and returns to fences with the first-time blinkers applied.

Verdict: If Shady Operator can reproduce his Punchestown Cross Country running back over regulation fences he’s got a great chance. Last year’s winner Space Cadet should be spot on fitness wise after his third behind Shady Operator last month. Mon Lino isn’t the most consistent of horses over fences but is handicapped to go close if at his best. If you forgive Nick Lost his last run at Punchestown then he’s got to be on the shortlist for the Henry De Bromhead/Rachel Blackmore combination. The mare’s Askann and Fag An Bealach could be capable of improvement for today’s marathon trip and the first time blinkered Frankly All Talk could out run big odds.

1pt win – Mon Lino – 11/1 @ Bet365 & Ladbrokes

1pt win – Nick Lost – 12/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

Cheers

John

Hi all,

That’s the 2021 Cheltenham Festival completed for another year. That doesn’t mean the big race jumps action is completed. Far from it there’s plenty to enjoy between now and the end off April. Starting today with Midlands Grand National at Uttoxeter.  

The turf flat season also starts in Ireland on Sunday with the Irish Lincolnshire and next Saturday it’s the start of the flat season this side of the Irish Sea with the Lincoln Handicap.

Today, it’s back to the jumps. ITV are covering four races from Uttoxeter and three from Kempton and begin today’s preview at the principal meeting at Uttoxeter.

Uttoxeter

2:25 – A competitive novices’ handicap chase which has attracted a field of nine.

St Barts is having his first since a decisive success at Newbury, on just his second start over fences. The 7-year-old has been raised 8lb for that all the way success but is capable of more improvement and looks a decent staying handicap chaser in the making.

Éclair Surf is another last time out winner. The 7-year-old made it 2-4 over fences with a battling success at Sandown. He’s 5lb higher now but is another young staying handicap chaser with more improvement to come. Both chase wins have come on heavy and trainer Emma Lavalle saddled De Rasher Counter to win this in 2019.

Shanty Alley improved to win over C&D (heavy) and then followed up at Doncaster (good to soft).  Made a bold bid for the hat trick when runner-up to Midlands Grand National ante post favourite Time To Get Up at Wincanton last month. Nudged up 2lb but his progress may not have ended yet.

Ask Me Early pulled up on his hat trick bid at Sandown last month when beaten favourite (5/4). The 7-year-old had looked progressive before Sandown. Trainer Harry Fry has saddled the winner of this three times since 2015 but the yard form is a slight concern.

Acey Milan was on the heels of the leaders when falling five out in the Peter Marsh Handicap Chase at Haydock last time. He’s not without a chance if his confidence hasn’t been dented by that heavy looking fall.

Seemorelights hasn’t really built on the promise of his Ayr chase debut on two subsequent starts. Seemed to stay 3m over hurdles and so might be open to more progress over today’s trip if he settles.

Verdict: Shanty Alley should give his running and is open to further improvement. St Barts and Éclair Surf are last time out winners with a preference for the latter at the prices.

1pt win – Éclair Surf – 6/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

1pt win – Shanty Alley – 9/2 @ Bet365

3:00 – Dan Skelton has the ante post favourite in Wilde About Oscar. The 6-year-old posted a career best on RPR’s when winning a Fontwell Listed novices hurdle last month. Up 10lb but he’s going to the right way and being ground versatile and will be tough to beat here.

Rockadenn got the better of a stablemate when winning at the third attempt since joining Paul Nicholls at Taunton 25-days ago. Up 5lb but the step up to 2m 4f could unlock more progress in the 5-year-old and this race was mentioned by the trainer after Taunton.

Thibault a three-time winner over hurdles but seemed to have improved when finishing 2^nd of 15 at Ascot 28-days ago. Up 4lb today but is another on the upgrade.

Verdict: Wilde Of Oscar has a touch of class but a slight preference for the consistent Thibault who ran well at Ascot last time.

1pt win – Thibault – 13/2 @ Bet365

3:35 – Marston’s 61 Deep Midlands Grand National (An Open Handicap Chase) (Listed Race) – 4m 2f

Saturday’s feature race and twenty have been declared for the £67,524 winner’s prize.

Time To Get Up who I strongly fancied for the Kim Muir at the Festival comes here instead. The bookies are taking no chances with this improving staying handicap chaser who is 7/2 at the time of writing this at Friday lunchtime.

Paul Nicholls saddled Truckers Lodge to win this year and besides that one he also saddles Highland Hunter. The 8-year-old won at Carlisle two starts back and improved again when finishing runner-up at Exeter 22-days ago. He shaped on both his last two starts like a stayer and could improve plenty for this marathon trip.

Truckers Lodge has just had two start this season but this has been his likely target since he finished 7^th in the Welsh Grand National. Now 12lb higher than for last year’s success

Captain Drake finished runner-up 12 months ago. Won a handicap hurdle here on his seasonal reappearance and bounced back from two low key efforts over fences when 4^th of 18 in the Welsh Grand National, off today’s mark. Given his good track form he’s got be big contender back here.

Achille has finished runner-up on his last three starts over fences. The 11-year-old’s consistency means he’s gone up 9lb for not winning.  Now 4lb higher than when finishing second in Haydock’s Grand National last month.

Golan Fortune is a late starter over fences. He won on his chase debut at Ludlow and has since run well in Grade 1 & Grade 2 novice chases on his last two starts over the larger obstacles.  High class handicap form at 3m over hurdles and if he stays this marathon trip will be in the mix.

Coo Star Sivola has struggled since winning the 2018 Ultima Handicap Chase at the Cheltenham Festival. More encouragement to be gleaned from the 9-year-old’s last two starts at Kempton and latterly when runner-up to Deise Aba at Sandown. On a good handicap mark if his stamina holds out.

Irish trained runners have done well in the race and Screaming Colours comes across the Irish Sea for the race. A winner at Punchestown on his seasonal return he’s finished runner-up on his three subsequent starts all at Punchestown.  A clear second in the Irish Grand National Trial last time. It was a career best effort 10-year-old who is a thorough stayer and goes very well in the mud.

Verdict: Time To Get Up could be well ahead of his mark but I can let him win at a best priced 5/2. If he stays this marathon trip Golan Fortune looks on a winnable mark for his handicap chase debut. Irish raider Screaming Colours stays all day and should go well but his best form has come in the mud.

1pt win – Golan Fortune – 10/1 @ Bet365 & Ladbrokes

1pt win – Screaming Colours – 7/1 @Bet365 & Paddy Power

Kempton

2:40 – Nightboattoclyro has been well placed to win his last three starts. He’s up 6lb for his last win at Wetherby but I’m not sure the handicapper has a handle on him just yet. Has won on good to soft but is unproven on good though.

Switch Hitter won a C&D novice hurdle (good) in November and ran better than his final position of 8^th suggests here on his handicap debut on Boxing Day. First run since but the drying ground is a positive for the 6-year-old.  

Didtheyleaveuoutto hasn’t had the best of luck in the past 12 months, falling on three of his hurdles starts, including this race last year. He was going well and closing on the leaders when coming down three out at Chepstow back in October. The 8-year-old returned has action in a couple “jumpers’ bumpers” wasn’t seen to best advantage on the last occasion. He’s on a competitive mark and if he gets a sound surface, which he needs. I’m sure he can win a win a handicap hurdle.

Verdict: Nightboattoclyro’s winning run may not have ended yet. Didtheyleaveuoutto will like the good ground and is handicapped to win a race like this with a clear round.

1pt win – Didtheyleaveuoutto – 6/1 @ Bet365

3:15 – Falco Blitz a good runner-up to Killer Clown over C&D two starts back. He built on that promise when winning at Southwell last month. Up 9lb but there could be more to come from the 7-year-old

My Way responded well to the first blinkers when making all to win over C&D last month. He’s well suited to good ground and despite a 9lb rise in the weight looks capable of another good run if the headgear continues to have a positive effect.

Smarty Wild won over C&D, despite jumping errors, two starts back. Jumping once again let him down at a crucial stage at Warwick last time and had to settle for fifth at the finish.  Remains on a competitive mark if he can cut out the jumping errors.

Mellow Ben could find competition for the lead. Set a 2m pace in a 3m handicap here last month. Not surprisingly he wasn’t able to maintain the gallop and weakened out of it three from home.  Drop backs to 2m 4f here and is on a winnable mark.

Verdict: Last time out winners Falco Blitz and My Way must be respected. If Smarty Wild cuts out the jumping errors he got major claims. The drop back to 2m 4f could prove ideal for the nicely treated Mellow Ben who like the good ground.

1pt win – Mellow Ben – 5/1 @ Bet365 & Ladbrokes

Cheers

John

Hi all,

A much better day yesterday and even a winner courtesy of Telmesomethinggirl at an early priced advised 8/1.

The final day is here and it’s normally my quietest of the week on the betting front. Not this year though, as there is a few I fancy. Let’s hope we end the Festival with another winner or two.

Cheltenham Festival – Day 4

1:20 – JCB Triumph Hurdle (Grade 1) – 2m 1f

I advised Zanahiyr 4/1 ante post. I’m happy with that. That said it’s a cracker of a race with Tritonic advertising his credentials for the race when winning the Adonis at Kempton last month. Add in Zanahiyr’s former stablemate Quilixios, now with Henry De Bromhead who won the Grade 1 juvenile hurdle at the Dublin Racing Festival and you have the makings of a good race.

Verdict: Zanahiyr for me but I wouldn’t be surprised if any of the big three won.

1:55 – McCoy Contractors County Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) – 2m 1f

A competitive big field handicap hurdle. In the past six years it has been won by just two trainers: Willie Mullins and Dan Skelton.

The Willie Mullins trained Ganapathi head the betting. The 5-year-old failed to stay 2m 6f in Grade 1 at Leopardstown last month. However, a strongly run 2m should be the ideal for this strong traveller on his handicap debut. Could be well handicapped off a mark of 140.

Third Time Lucki is another handicap debutant. He’s one three of his five starts over hurdle and although he was beaten at Musselburgh last time, he’s another who should be suited a strong run race. Well fancied and trainer Dan Skelton has won this three times since 2016.

You Raised Him Up has been in good form this season winning both his two starts. Returned from a winter break to put in a career best on RPR’s when winning a Naas novice hurdle over 2m 3f last month. A truly run 2m on a track with a stiff finish should be ideal for the 8-year-old who can be seen to better effect on better ground.

Champagne Gold is one of the least experienced horse in the field. He’s just had the four starts but he posted a career best effort on his handicap debut when 2^nd of 22 in the valuable Ladbrokes Handicap Hurdle at Leopardstown. He’s rated 12lb higher by the British handicapper so needs to find more improvement. His lightly raced enough to think he can find it.

Eclair De Beaufeu had just been headed when unseating his jockey at the last in this in 2019. He also finished runner-up in the Grand Annual at last season’s festival. Back over hurdles on his three starts, he was never nearer than at the finish when sixth in the Ladbrokes last time. Ground more in his favour today and gets a handy weight pull from the winner & runner-up today.

Fifty Ball & Edwardstone finished second and third in the Betfair Hurdle. At the revised weights there shouldn’t be much between the pair. Both can go well. The latter should be well suited to a strongly run 2m 1f.  A sound surface suits and he’s 2-2 when racing at around 2m 1f. Two starts here in the Supreme and Greatwood Hurdle were respectable but he may be better on a flatter track. That said he’s got solid each way claims.

Gowel Road is good novice hurdler who comes into the race after two wins at Newbury and the first- time cheekpieces are applied for the 5-year-old’s return to handicap company.

Cayd Bay is 2-5 over hurdles and has experience of big field handicaps having won a 17-runner valuable handicap at Down Royal two starts back. The 6-year-old has yet to race on ground better than soft but looks like the sort who could improve for better ground. Returns from a 110-day break here which isn’t a negative as he’s a perfect 3-3 when returning from a 121-day layoff.

Verdict: Edwardstone looks an ideal type for a race like this provided he’s not better suited to a flatter track. Third Time Lucki must be respected given his trainer’s record in the race. The Irish have a strong hand of contenders the potentially well treated Ganapathi, and the likes of You Raised Me Up, Champagne Gold & Cayd Bay.

1pt win – Champagne Gold – 7/1 @Bet365

1pt win – You Raised Me Up – 11/1 @ Bet365 & Ladbrokes

1pt each way – Cayd Bay – 20/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes (both paying 6 places 1/5 odds)

2:30 – Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1) – 3m

The Grade 1 Albert Bartlett is a severe test of a novice’s stamina, and especially on soft ground.  It probably won’t be as testing as last year when it was won by Monkfish.

This year’s race doesn’t look the strongest of renewals and its open looking race.

For a Grade 1 race it can often produce a shock result. In the past ten years five winners were returned between 14/1 to 50/1, so don’t be put off if your fancy is at big odds.

Of the five winners who won 11/1 & under. All five won last time out, they all had run at least three times over hurdles and interestingly they hadn’t run in a Grade 1 previously.

Those trends bring the likes of Torygraph, Barbados Bucks, Alaphilippe, Threeunderthrufive and Adrimel into the mix. Of that group I like the claims of the first named most.  

Torygraph comes into the race an improving staying novice hurdler after wins in maiden/novice company at Fairyhouse and Thurles 51-days ago. Has yet to race on ground better than soft/heavy over hurdles but if he handles today’s quicker ground looks set for a good run in the first time cheekpieces.  

At bigger odds you can’t dismiss the claims of Streets Of Doyen. The 7-year-old improved for the step up to 3m in the autumn making it 4-4 over the distance when winning here in October. Good prep for this over an inadequate 2m on soft ground at Naas 19-days ago. May lack the class of some of his rivals but he’s tough, stays well and will like the drying ground.

Verdict: Plenty of these will be facing decent ground for the first time, including my fancy Torygraph. One who won’t mind the drying ground is Streets Of Doyen.

1pt win – Torygraph – 6/1 @ Bet365

1pt win – Streets Of Doyen – 9/1 @ Bet365

3:05 – WellChild Cheltenham Gold Cup Chase (Grade 1) – 3m 2 ½ f

The race of the meeting and the whole jumps season.

Al Boum Photo bids for a hat trick of wins in the race and must have a good chance of doing it.  His claims are there for all to see. However, he faces a couple of serious rivals in A Plus Tard and Champ. 

I didn’t think A Plus Tard would stay 3m in the Savills Chase at Leopardstown but it was stamina that win him the day as he got up to nail Kemboy in the final strides. The runner-up has boasted the form when winning the Irish Gold Cup next time. He’s got two furlongs further to travel here but shapes like he will stay and could even improve for the new distance.

Champ has had an unusual prep for this, running over 2m in the Game Spirit Chase at Newbury last month. To run a specialist two miler like Sceau Royal to two lengths was some effort and showed what a good engine he has. Last year’s RSA Novices’ Chase winner should stay 3m 2f and as a second season chaser must be high on the shortlist.

I wouldn’t totally rule a return to form by A Plus Tard’s stablemate Minello Indo. Runner-up to Champ in last seasons’ RSA Novices’ Chase. He looked set for a good season when winning his first two starts. Normally a solid jumper he blocked his copybook when falling in the Savills Chase over Christmas. He does need to bounce back from a laboured performance in last months Irish Gold Cup but a return to Cheltenham could see him do so.

Verdict: Al Boum Photo’s claims are clear for all to see. Both A Plus Tard & Champ are the young pretenders. I was really warming to A Plus Tard’s chance but he’s now joint favourite with Al Boum Photo. I wouldn’t be totally surprised to see A Plus Tard’s stablemate Minella Indo bounce back from a poor run at Leopardstown, now back at Cheltenham. I have taken Al Boum Photo on for the last two years and at the prices I’m just going with Champ.

1pt win – Champ – 11/2 @ Bet365

I haven’t looked at the next two races in any detail and I won’t be betting in the Mares Chase.

3:40 – St. James’s Place Festival Challenge Cup Open Hunters’ Chase – 3m 2 ½ f

Staker Wallace was only 4^th of 21 in this race 12 months ago but he was short of experience compared to his rivals that day and he went into my notebook for this race. He’s improved since and posted a career best on RPR’s when runner-up to Billaway in a hunter chase at Naas at 47-days ago. Not a race I have looked at in much detail but I might have a bet on him.

1pt win – Staker Wallace – 8/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

4:15 – Mrs Paddy Power Mares’ Chase (Registered As The Liberthine Mares’ Chase) (Grade 2) – 2m 4 ½ f

The first running of the race and Willie Mullins has the first and second in the ante post betting in Elimay & Colreevy.  Shattered Love won the Grade 1 novices’ chase here in 2018. She ran a good trial for this when runner-up to Elimay at Naas last month. That performance came over 2m and she’s a better over today’s trip. Magic Of Light is the highest rated of the 11 runners but the 2019 Grand National runner-up needs a longer trip to be seen at her best.

4:50 – Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race) (Class 2) – 2m 4 ½ f

Not sure how deep a race this year’s renewal of the race.

Willie Mullins has won this race three times in the past ten years and he’s got handicap debutants Gentlemen De Mee & Galopin Des Champshigh up in the ante post betting for this year’s race.

Gentlemen De Mee looked a good hurdling prospect when winning on his first start for the trainer at Naas last month. The 5-year-old is open to any amount of improvement especially for the step up to 2m 4f. Granted he’s only had three career starts so lack the experience of his rivals but could be very well in here off a mark of 139.

Galopin Des Champs is another 5-year-old. Just the four career starts. A winner when trained in France. He made a good debut for the Mullins yard when finishing runner-up to a useful sort in Sea Ducor at Gowran Park. He ran as if something was amiss when pulling up in a Grade 2 novice hurdle at Limerick over Christmas. Wasn’t disgraced when 6^th of 13 to stablemate Appreciate It in a Grade 1 at Leopardstown last month. On pedigree should be suited by 2m 4f and is contender.

Langer Dan has just a 5lb penalty to carry for his easy win in the Imperial Cup at Sandown on Saturday. He’s 5lb well in here and should go well but the ground will be much quicker today and his stamina for 2m 4f must be proven.

Frontal Assault looked a useful stayer when winning a Thurles novice hurdle (2m 7 ½ f) three starts back.  The 6-year-old flopped when fancied for his handicap hurdle debut at Leopardstown, said to have run to keen in the first-time blinkers.  Much more like it when beating five rivals in a Grade 3 at Navan 26-days ago in the re-applied cheekpieces. Not sure 2m 4f on good ground will play to his strengths but the yard had 2017 & 2018 winners and second and third in 2019.  The yard also saddles Dallas Des Pictons who was runner-up in the race in 2019 and isn’t totally out of it.

Commandingpresence gives the Irish a strong hand in the race. The Henry De Bromhead trained 6-year-old won on his hurdle debut at Punchestown (yielding) back in September.  Was just in the lead when falling at the last in a Listed hurdle at Limerick. Didn’t seem to enjoy the heavy ground when only 5^th of 6 in a 3m Grade 3 at Cork 103-days ago. Goes well fresh and is interesting on his handicap debut on better ground. Yard among the winners already this week.

Verdict: A small short list for the concluding race of the 2021 Cheltenham Festival. They will need to go hard to bring Frontal Assault’s stamina into play.  Langer Dan bids for the 50k bonus for winning the Imperial Cup. However, the ground is going to be different today.  The Mullins pair of Gentlemen De Mee & Galopin Des Champs could be on good marks, in particularly the first named. The lightly raced Commandingpresence should like today’s better ground. He hails from an inform yard and can get into the money.

2pts win – Gentlemen De Mee – 7/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

1pt each way – Commandingpresence – 25/1 @ Coral (paying 5 places 1/5 odds)

Cheers

John

Hi all,

We’re half way through the festival and if it wasn’t for my ante post bet on Monkfish (4/1). I would be tearing my hair out, especially after Entoucas went so close in the Grand Annual. The pressure is on for a big Thursday and it’s going to be a case of death or glory tomorrow.

Looking at yesterday’s times the going was a shade quicker than the official going description and little rain, if any, is forecast.

The action switches to the New Course for Thursday & Friday.  Plenty to like about today’s card. The star of the show is undoubtedly the unbeaten Envoi Allen. There’s also a highly competitive renewal of the Ryanair Chase (2:40). Add in three big field handicaps and three of my ante post selections running: Sire De Berlais, Lisnagar Oscar & Skyace and it’s a day to get excited about.

Cheltenham Festival – Day 2

1:20 – Marsh Novices’ Chase (Grade 1) (Registered as The Golden Miller)  – 2m 4f

Seven rivals are set to take on Envoi Allen.

Envoi Allen fan and I hope and expect him to make it 12-12 under rules. I’m not an odds-on punter but the 4/6 that is available looks value to me. Can anything beat the 7-year-old? Not for me. However, if the dead eight do stand their ground then punters do have an each-way betting opportunity.

Chatham Street Lad won the Caspian Caviar Gold Cup over C&D in December and has place claims. Chantry House made it 2-3 over fences when winning at Wetherby 29-days ago. Although Shishkin won on Tuesday. I would want to see some good runs from the Henderson horses on Wednesday to get involved here.

The bold Jumping Shan Blue should ensure this a good test of jumping and stamina. Last season’s Champion Hurdle third Darver Star has yet to show he’s as good a chaser as hurdler. However, the step up to 2m 4f could be what the 9-year-old needs.

Verdict: Envoi Allen to with Chantry House and Darver Star fighting out for the places.

1:55 – Pertemps Network Final Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) – 3m

A field of twenty-three are set to race. I have a small but select shortlist for the race

The Bosses Oscar is well fancied. Runner-up in a qualifier at Leopardstown over Christmas and a fair fifth in last year’s Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle the 6-year-old ticks plenty of trend boxes and Jordon Gainford takes off a handy 7lb.

There was plenty to like about Imperial Alcazar’s win in a Warwick qualifier. He was strong at the finish that day and is having just his second start in a handicap. The 7-year-old he’s been raised 8lb for that success and provided he handles the likely quicker surface won’t be far away.

Third in the Warwick race was Come On Teddy.  The 7-year-old built on a C&D win back in December and gets 8lb, for a 5-length defeat here. At the revised weights there shouldn’t be much between the pair here.

Champagne Platinum didn’t look a natural on his four starts over fences last season. Not surprisingly connections decided to return to the smaller obstacles this season. The 7-year-old ran with encouragement when 3rd of 12 at Newbury on his seasonal return in November. Off since that run, he returned to action finishing runner-up in a Qualifier at Haydock 26-days ago.

The lightly raced Milliner has sneaked into the race as first reserve. The 8-year-old has returned from 762-day absence with promising 5^th of 20 at Navan and improved on that run when 3^rd of 16 in a Punchestown qualifier 17-days ago. Two out, he looked like would go onto justify favoritism, but maybe just didn’t get home on soft ground. Solid claims on better ground and if produced a bit later this time.

Verdict:  The Bosses Oscar & Imperial Alcazar have obvious claims as does previous C&D Come On Teddy. Champagne Platinum ran an ideal trial for this at Haydock last time and better ground won’t inconvenience him. Milliner has sneaked into the race on a nice light weight.

1pt win – The Bosses Oscar – 6/1 @ Bet365

1pt win – Milliner – 8/1 @ Bet365

2:30 – Ryanair Chase (Registered as The Festival Trophy) (Grade 1) – 2m 4 ½ f

Fourteen are set to go to post for what looks the most competitive of the non-handicap’s races at the festival. In fact, I think it’s the race of the meeting.

Willie Mullins saddles four Min, Allaho, Melon & Tornado Flyer. Paul Townend has opted for last year’s winner Min. The 10-year-old ran like something was amiss when pulling up behind Chacun Pour Soi at Leopardstown last month. Interestingly since Min has moved up in distance to 2m 4f/2m 5f his form figures are 1211111. He should make a bold bid to retain his crown.

Allaho third in last season’s RSA Novices’ Chase bounced back to something like his best when winning a Grade 2 at Thurles 50-days ago.  This looks the 7-year-old’s optimum trip and Rachel Blackmore takes the ride.

Melon was beaten a nose in last year’s Marsh Novices’ Chase.  A close-up third to A Plus Tard in the Grade 1 Savills Chase at Leopardstown over Christmas. The hold up tactics didn’t work in the Irish Gold Cup last time and a return to a prominent ride back down in trip should see him to better effect. Has run some races here in the past and although he’s yet to win. His form figures are 23222.  

Mister Fisher put in a career best over fences when winning the rearranged Grade 2 Peterborough Chase over C&D in December. He was 4^th in last year’s Marsh behind Melon but the drying ground will be in his favour today. The 7-year-old to find a bit more improvement to beat Min and Saint Calvados but he remains open to finding it. Solid claims.

Imperial Aura a winner of the novices’ handicap chase here, beating Galvin, 12 months ago. The 7-year-old won his first two starts this season, However, the normally solid jumper only got as far as the second fence, before unseating his rider at Kempton in January. If his confidence hasn’t been dented, he’s got a similar chance to Mister Fisher.

Fakir D’oudairies bounced back to form when finishing runner-up to Chacun Pour Soi at last month’s Dublin Racing Festival. Last year’s Arkle runner-up should relish the return to 2m 4f and looks set for a big performance.

Samcro has become a bit of a forgotten horse. Last season’s Marsh winner is 2-2 at the course and although he hasn’t been seen to best effect on either start this season. A return to a sounder surface will suit the 9-year-old and he can’t be dismissed easily.

Verdict: I think this is a real cracker of a renewal. It’s not often you get a Grade 1 race where you can make a case for eight of the field. Min & Saint Calvados are the ones to beat on last year’s form. Mister Fisher will appreciate the drying ground and Fakir D’oudairies remains open to more progress over the trip. A bounce back to form by Samcro wouldn’t be the biggest surprise.

1pt win – Mister Fisher – 8/1 @ Bet365

1pt win – Samcro – 10/1 @ Bet365

3:05 – Paddy Power Stayers’ Hurdle (Grade 1) – 3m

Despite losing Thyme Hill to injury. There’s still a strong field of fifteen staying hurdlers declared to run.  I have already advised Sire De Berlais – 14/1 (each way) and Lisnagar Oscar– 50/1 (each way) and I’m expecting big runs from both.

All eyes on Paisley Park who looks set to go off favourite in his bid to regain his Stayers Hurdle crown.  After disappointing in this race 12 months ago. The 9-year-old has returned action in good form and looked as good as ever when winning the Long Walk Hurdle at Ascot in December.

Flooring Porter made all to win a Grade 1 at Leopardstown over Christmas. The 6-year-old is on the upgrade and only has a 1lb to find with Paisley Park on RPR’s. Looks set for a big run but won’t find it easy to boss this field like he did last time.

Beacon Edge got the better of Fury Road (neck) in the Boyne Hurdle last month. The 7-year-old was getting 2lb from Fury Road that day but I think he can confirm that form. This is his first start beyond 2m 5f but he should stay and there’s a good chance he can improve for today’s longer trip.

Verdict:  I’m already on Sire De Berlais & Lisnagar Oscar.Paisley Park’s claims are clear. Flooring Porter is the potential new kid on the block staying hurdler. Beacon Edge is classy at 2m 4f but looks worth a try at 3m and has each-way claims.

1pt each way – Beacon Edge – 18/1 @ Paddy Power (paying 5 places 1/5 odds)

3:40 – Paddy Power Plate Handicap Chase (Grade 3) – 2m 4 ½ f

The Shunter heads the market back over fences. Won the Morebattle Hurdle at Kelso 12-days ago. He’s better handicapped and unexposed over fences, Today’s extended 2m 4f will suit and Jordon Gainford takes off 7lb.

The Unit & Champagne Court were third and fourth at Warwick 20-days ago. The former confirmed that he retains plenty of ability and he’ll like today’s sounder surface ground. The latter has been disappointing since winning two of his first three starts over fences last season. Dropped back to 2m 4f and racing in the first time cheekpieces he put in his best performance of the season and is nicely weighted.

Happy Diva won the BetVictor Gold Cup here last season and finished runner-up in this 12 months ago. Now 4lb lower and if she can reproduce last year’s effort, she won’t be far away at track that suits.

Mister Whitaker finished third in last season’s race. A three-time course winner, including C&D in April 2019, off 1lb lower. He’s just had two starts this season, has likely been trained for the race and has winning form on good ground.

Farclas has run well on his last two starts in valuable handicap chases at Leopardstown. The 2018 Triumph Hurdle winner has won three times on good ground in the past so drying ground won’t be an issue. Might be better over further but a strongly run will suit.

Dead Right is 5lb higher and a much deeper race than when winning at Market Rasen in September. First run since but it’s worth noting he’s 3-3 when racing after a 150+ day break and 3-5 on good ground. Not totally out of this if the ground is quick enough with Tom Scudamore booked for the ride.

Verdict: The Shunter is a worthy favourite albeit looks plenty short enough. Farclas has been running well in big field handicaps and today’s better ground will suit. Mister Whitaker & Dead Right have each way chances.

1pt each way – Mister Whitaker – 14/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes (both paying 5 places 1/5 odds)

1pt each way – Dead Right – 30/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook (paying 5 places 1/5 odds)

4:15 – Parnell Properties Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 2) (Registered as The Dawn Run) – 2m 1f

Another excellent sized field of fifteen are set to meet the starter. It’s a very open looking contest with the bookies going 11/2 the field.

I have already advised the ‘Shark’ Hanlon trained Skyace- 25/1 (each way). The mare was my first Cheltenham ante post selection and I remain hopeful she can finish in the first three.

Willie Mullins has saddled all five winners of the race. He brings over four for this year’s renewal. Gauloise, Hook Up, Glens Of Antrim & Pont Avel. The first named is the choice of Paul Townend but its Hook Up that interests me more. The 5-year-old putting a career best effort when a 7 ½ length fourth to Appreciate It in the Grade 1 at the Dublin Racing Festival. She was likely flattered by her proximity to Tuesday’s Supreme winner but it was still an excellent effort from the mare. Her jumping needs to improve but if it does, she a big player.

Roseys Hollow, Royal Kahala and Gauloise were first, second and third in a Grade 3 Fairyhouse last month.

Roseys Hollow was strong at the finish to win by two lengths. She was getting 4lb from the runner-up but I fancy she confirm that form with both the second and the third. Both hurdle wins have come on heavy so good to soft ground is a bit of an unknown but her half sister was at her best on a sound ground so there’s every chance she can be effective on it.

Telmesomethinggirl won three of her four hurdles starts in mares’ only races last summer. She returned from a 140-day break to finish an excellent 3rd of 20 (behind yesterday’s Coral Cup winner Heaven Help Us), in a mares’ only handicap at Leopardstown last month. Drying a ground, a positive, two wins on good and set for a good run for a yard among the winners this week.

Verdict:  I’m more than happy with my each -way ante post selection Skyace (25/1) in an open looking race. Of those at the front of the market Hook Up and the improving Roseys Hollow are big players as is Telmesomethinggirl.

1pt win – Telmesomethinggirl – 8/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

1pt win – Roseys Hollow – 6/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

4:50 – Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup Handicap Chase (Class 2) – 3m 2f

My initial fancy Time To Get Up is sadly now a non-runner. There are a few in with a chance here.

Kilfilum Cross and Bob Mahler were second and third in last year’s race. They are handicapped to dead heat on that form. Neither has much form to show this season but better can be expected back here. Slight preference is for Kilfilum Cross on this ground who also finished runner-up in the race in 2019.

Plan Of Attack a progressive handicap chaser last season was fourth in this race 12 months ago. The 8-year-old pulled up on his first two starts this season (excuses on both occasions) but shaped much better when 8^th of 22 in the Paddy Power Handicap Chase at Leopardstown over Christmas. Blinkers go on for the first time and he’s got winning form on good ground.

Storm Control looked much improved stepping up to 3m 1f+ when making all to win twice here in November & December. He pulled up in Warwick’s Classic Chase last time but likely didn’t stay 3m 5f on soft ground. Better expected from the 8-year-old who would be hard to pass if allowed to dominate out in front.

Paul Nicholls – 0 winners from 8 runners in the race saddles dual course winner Shantou Flyer who also finished third in last season’s Foxhunters. Finished fourth to Time To Get Up at Wincanton but that was the 11-year-old’s first start for Nicholls and his first since last year’s Festival so he will likely have needed the run.

Hold The Note is 0 from 9 over fences but he does tick all the above trend boxes and was 3^rd of 20 behind Imperial Aura here 12 months ago. The 7-year-old showed he stayed 3m when a close-up 2^nd of 6 at Newbury last month. That was his first run since wind surgery and he’s on a decent mark if he can see out today’s extra two furlongs.

I have heard good things about handicap debutant Milanford. A winning pointer last year he’s only had three starts over fences and he looks to be on a workable mark off 138. Handicap debutants are 1-15 5 places in the race in the past 10-years but the one winner did come in last season’s race.

There’s also been positive vibes about Morning Vicar’s chance. Unexposed over fences just the four starts. The 8-year-old will appreciate the drying ground although stamina for 3m 2f must be taken on trust.

Verdict: Kilfilum Cross hasn’t been in great form this season but he’s finished runner-up in this for the last two seasons and has each way claims.  Plan Of Attack looks interesting in the first time blinkers and will like the better ground. Storm Control form around here means he’s got be respected.

1pt each way – Kilfilum Cross – 16/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook (paying 5 places 1/5 odds)

1pt win – Plan Of Attack – 8/1 @ Bet365

Cheers

John

Hi all,

It’s day two of the festival. Not a great start to the meeting but the Cheltenham Festival is a marathon not a sprint.

The going changed during Tuesday’s action to good to soft, soft in places.

Cheltenham Festival – Day 2

Like yesterday I have had a look at four races from day two.

1:20 – Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1) – 2m 5f

Like yesterday’s Supreme, this race has cut up badly with just seven going to post. I’m a big Bob Olinger. I think he could have won yesterday’s Supreme. This is his trip though and he should handle drying ground.  The one to beat.

Bravemansgame is rated 5lb higher on RPR’s than Bob Olinger. A future high-class chaser in the making and I still prefer the likely favourite.

Bear Ghylls is unbeaten on four of his starts under rules, including 3-3 over hurdles. Capable of further improvement for the step up to 2m 5f. From small yard and has each way claims with bookies paying three places.

Verdict: Bear Ghylls has each way claims with those bookies paying three places. However, I’m firmly in the Bob Olinger camp here. Although at the prices Bravemansgame is getting to a backable price.

1:55 – Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase (Grade 1) – 3m ½ f

Another small field of just six novice chasers but it remains a good race with a worthy favourite who could go onto win next season’s Gold Cup.

I’m on Monkfish (4/1) and Eklat De Rire (14/1) each way, three places, so I’m more than happy with my portfolio for the race.

The Big Breakaway remains with potential. He won a novices’ chase here in November on his chase debut and finished fourth, behind Envoi Allen in last season’s Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle. Needs to jump better than he has on his last two starts though.

Verdict: I’m happy with my positions. I think Monkfish is one of the bankers of the meeting but I wouldn’t put anyone off The Big Breakaway if you fancy him.

2:30 – Coral Cup Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) – 2m 5f

One of my favourite betting races of the festival. A maximum field of 26 has been declared. There are five I really like.

Monte Cristo is lightly raced and has been put up 12lb for a comfortable success at Kempton. I like the fact that the 5-year-old ran on strongly at the end of the Kempton race and he’s probably been kept for this race.

Grand Roi looks steadily progressive on RPR’s. Handicap debut here but looking at his adjusted RPR he looks on winnable mark. Although stamina for a strongly run 2m 5f must be proven there looks to be a good chance the trip could unlock further improvement in the 5-year-old.

Guard Your Dreams only finished 6th in the Betfair Hurdle on his last start. However, looking at RPR’s it was a career best effort form the 5-year-old. A winner of three of his five starts over hurdles The Coral Cup is his first run beyond an extended two mile but he was nearest at the finish at Newbury and shaped like he would appreciate a step up in trip.

Craigneiche, a stablemate of Monte Cristo, has got a bit to find with the top three on RPR’s but he’s only had the four starts and improved to win on his handicap debut at Ascot in January. He’s been hiked 12lb for his Ascot success but he’s lightly raced and there was plenty to like about his Ascot win. Trainer Nicky Henderson who has won the last two running’s of the Coral Cup and saddled the 2014 winner.

Thomas Darby finished runner-up in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle here in 2019. Since his run in the Supreme the 8-year-old has been consistent and he won a valuable handicap hurdle at Ascot last season under top-weight, off 4lb lower, beating Song For Someone. He would need a career best to win the Coral Cup under top-weight but given his overall class/consistency he’s got to be high on the shortlist. Get’s the first time cheekpieces today.

Verdict:  Top weight Thomas Darby has each way claims. The Henderson pair Monte Cristo and Craigneiche are in the mix as is handicap debutant Grand Roi.

1pt win – Monte Cristo – 11/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

1pt win – Grand Roi – 13/2 @ Bet365

1pt each way – Thomas Darby – 12/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook (paying 7 places 1/ 5 odds)

3:05 – Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase (Grade 1) – 2m

Despite losing Altior, ten stand their ground, for the race of the day. I’m on First Flow (14/1) each way and remain happy with my pick who can get into the money.

Chacun Pour Soi is odds on to give Willie Mullins a first win in the race.  His six from seven since joining Willie Mullins and is clearly a worthy favourite. That said he’s yet to race at Cheltenham so the track is a bit of an unknown but if he handles it, he surely wins.

Nube Negra beat Altior in the Grade 2 Desert Orchid Chase at Kempton over Christmas but I think he’s better on a flatter track.

Put The Kettle won the Arkle Novices’ Chase last year and the mare is now 3-3 at Cheltenham when winning the Shloer Chase in November. Beaten fair and square by Chacun Pour Soi at Leopardstown at Christmas but has each way claims back at a track that suits.

First Flow’s connections will have been pleased with the rain that fell on Sunday night. Comes into the race in excellent form. He’s third top rated on RPR’s and doesn’t have too much to find with the favourite.

Rouge Vif a useful novice chaser last season, although ran below par when only third in the Arkle. The ground was probably too soft for him that day. Made an impressive return to action when winning handicap over C&D in November (good). Not had his ground on his last two starts and if he gets good to soft or quicker, his form figures on such going are 2121111 and he’s got each way claims for a yard now among the winners.

Verdict: If he handles the track  Chacun Pour Soi wins. I’m happy with First Flow each way. However, if the ground does dry out, the ground dependent Rouge Vif could get into the places.

1pt each way – Rouge Vif – 25/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

3:40 – Glenfarclas Chase (A Cross Country Chase) – 3m 6f

You either love these Country races or you don’t. I don’t, so it’s a no betting race for me.

4:15 – Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Challenge Cup Handicap Chase (Grade 3)

The second handicap of the day and arguably even more competitive than the Coral Cup. Nineteen have been declared so the field size has held up well. It’s a race where you can fancy plenty.

Joseph O’Brien has a strong hand in the race the front two in the ante post betting in Embittered & Entoucas.

Embittered has started just four times over fences and has been running in graded races. Handicap debut which should. The 7-year-old was an excellent third in last year’s County Hurdle. Looks capable of far better than we have seem so far over hurdles and he looks on a good mark based on his County Hurdle form.

O’Brien also saddles Us And Them. The 8-year-old has reserved some of his best performances for Cheltenham. He finished runner-up in the 2019 Arkle and finished third in this race last year. Vulnerable to any improvers in the field but likely to be in the mix once again.

Entoucas is 0-5 over fences, but has finished runner-up on three occasions. A career best on RPR’s when 4^th of 20 in a valuable handicap chase at Leopardstown last month. Looks the type to land a decent pot when all the cards fall right and he’s got hurdles form on a sounder surface.

Sky Pirate improved for the drop back to 2m when handicaps here and at Warwick. Has sine been beaten in the Grade 2 Kingmaker Novices’ Chase back at Warwick. He’s now 7lb higher than for his win but a strongly run 2m should suit the strong travelling 8-year-old.

Ibleo has been in good form this season finishing runner-up to Sky Pirate here in December. Has improved since winning at Huntingdon & Doncaster, beating The Big Bite on the last occasion. Yet to race on ground better than soft over fences though.

Amoola Gold was in good form at the start of the season winning at Wetherby, before beating Ibleo at Ascot and is 10lb better off with that one today. Improved on that when running First Flow to a neck back at Ascot next time. Ran Sky Pirate to 2 ¼ lengths at Warwick last time and is 4lb better off now.  Competitively weighted if he handles the track.

Zanza looked a progressive handicap chaser when winning at Newbury on his third start over fences. Looked to be travelling as anything when falling three out here in a handicap chase won by Sky Pirate in December. Mark unchanged here and has likely been kept for this race. The better the ground the better his chance. Capable of being the mix, if none the worse for his last time mishap.

Chosen Mate won this 12 months ago, off 8lb lower. Looks to have been trained for this again and connections have booked Jordon Gainford to take off a handy 7lb. Tough ask to do the double but can’t be easily dismissed on good to soft or better ground.

Bun Doran has plenty of form around here, including a C&D win and finished runner-up in this in 2019.  As a 10-year-old he’s vulnerable to younger legs but is weighted to run well and could get on into the places at big odds.

Moonlighter comes into the race after winning at Sandown last month. Just up 3lb for that win and a strongly run race, going left-handed should suit. Ground versatile and capable of big run, if his jumping holds up.

On The Slopes was an improving handicap chaser at around this time last season winning twice at Kempton. Not fired on his three starts this season but he remains open to more improvement although a flatter track may suit him better.

Or Jaune De Somoza a useful enough handicap chaser was two places and 2 ½ lengths behind Entoucas at Leopardstown last time.  Was making steady late headway that day and at the revised weights there shouldn’t be much between the pair, although you fancy that Entoucas may have a bit more in his locker.  Plenty of previous form on a sound surface and has each way claims.

Verdict: The drying ground will suit Zanza more than Ibleo. Joseph O’Brien has a strong hand in the race with Embittered, Entoucas & Us And Them and all three of them will appreciate drying ground. Sky Pirate should be suited by the pace of the race. Amoola Gold is fairly handicapped, has winning form on good to soft and has each way claims. Bun Doran has plenty of good form at the track and despite his age is another each way contender.  

1pt win – Zanza – 7/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

1pt win – Embittered – 11/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

1pt win – Entoucas – 15/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

4:50 – Champion Bumper (A Standard Open National Hunt Flat Race) (Grade 1) – 2m ½ f

I wrote about this race last week.

All the last ten winners were aged five or six and had won their last race.  Those not fulfilling those two trends are 0 winners from 87 runners 7 placed,

Five of the winners were returned at odds between 14/1 to 25/1.

Willie Mullins has saddled the winner of the Champion Bumper four times in the past ten years. And he has a strong hand in this year’s race with the front two in the market in Kilcruit and Sir Gerhard, formerly with Gordon Elliott.

Interestingly all four of the Mullins winners were returned between 11/1 to 25/1 – 4 winners from 13 runners +68 8 placed (+91.80 each way).  He’s 0 winners from 21 runners 4 placed with horses outside that price bracket.

Whilst I wouldn’t put you off the market leaders and their chances are clear for all to see. An each-way punt at one of the trainers bigger priced runners could pay dividends, as it has done in the past. He has a couple in the right price range in the mare Grangee and Ramillies.

Verdict: It’s hard to look past the Mullins horses here. Kilcruit and Sir Gerhard are smart prospects and it’s likely the winner will come from the pair. A modest each way investment on Ramillies, Grangee or even Cool Jet may well pay dividends.

Good luck with your Cheltenham bets.

John