Author: John Burke

Hi all,

A tidy profit made on what had looked a tough day’s punting. Saturday is likely to be tricky with plenty of rain being forecast for Saturday morning. The going at Haydock is good to soft on the jumps course and soft on the flat course. At Ascot it’s good to soft and Lingfield’s going description for its Classic Trials card is good but the going at all three tracks is likely to ease given the weather forecast. You’re going to have to factor in that in your calculations today.

In today’s preview I have looked at all seven races on ITV.

Haydock

It’s a mixed card of flat and jumps action at Haydock this afternoon with the feature race being the Grade 3 Pertemps Network Swinton Handicap Hurdle (3:10).

1:25 – Pertemps Network Long Distance Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race) (Class 2) – 3m ½ f

My initial fancy was the likely favourite Jersey Wonder. The 5-year-old has improved for stepping up in distance. Winning on his handicap hurdle debut at Fontwell and then following up at Exeter over (2m 7f) 22-days ago. He’s an improver but both those wins came on good to firm.

One runner who will appreciate the rain is Corrieben Reiver. The 7-year-old returned from a 16-month absence to win easily at Kelso (heavy) two starts back. He maintained that improvement off a 11lb higher mark when 3½ lengths 2nd of 11 at Ayr last time. The step up to 3m should suit on pedigree and he remains open to more progress off 4lb higher than at Ayr.

1pt win – Corrieben Reiver – 9/1 – Gen

3:10 – Pertemps Network Swinton Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) – 1m 7 ½ f

Rowland Ward and Camprond were first and second in handicap hurdle at Aintree last time. They have been raised 10lb & 9lb respectably which demands more improvement from the pair. The form of the Aintree race does look strong and both horses are improvers.  

At the revised weights there shouldn’t be much the pair but my preference is for Rowland Ward to confirm Aintree form here. A big field strongly run 2m suits the 5-year-old and he can go close.

Copperless also ran in the Aintree race. He was travelling very powerfully when coming down two out. At the weights he should be very competitive. However, soft ground would be an unknown for the 6-year-old.  

1pt win – Rowland Ward – 11/1 @ Bet365

Lingfield

The feature races of Lingfield’s seven race card are the Novibet Oaks Trial (2:15) and Novibet Derby Trial (2:50). ITV are covering three races from Lingfield including both Classic Trials.

2:15 – Novibet Oaks Trial Fillies’ Stakes (Listed Race) – 1m 3 ½ f

Technique finished a head 2nd of 8 to Wirko in Listed race at Epsom last time. She should be capable of more improvement but the winner did nothing for the form at Chester this week and she might be worth taking on here.

There are a few improving fillies who also look capable of more improvement including Ocean Road and Save A Forest. The latter has race fitness on her side but the former looked potentially smart when winning here on the all-weather last time.

John Gosden has saddled the last two winners of the race; He runs Loving Dream & Regent. The former is the pick of Frankie Dettori and ran Oaks fancy Noon Star to 2 ½ length on her seasonal return at Wetherby 13-days ago.

2:50 – Novibet Derby Trial Stakes (Listed Race) – 1m 3 ½ f

Adayar finished runner-up in Sandown’s Classic Trial on his return to action 15-days ago. The step up to 1m 4f can bring out more improvement in the colt who won on soft ground at Nottinghm on his final juvenile start.

Aidan O’Brien brings over two in Kyprios & Carlisle Bay. They both get the addition of the first time cheekpieces which could really benefit the latter.

Scope won a Newbury novice on his racecourse debut. That win came on heavy ground so he won’t be too concerned should the rain arrive in the forecast amounts.

3:25 – Novibet Chartwell Fillies’ Stakes (Group 3) – 7f

Should the rain arrive there is a doubt about the participation of the likely favourite Double Or Bubble.

Bounce The Blues made a nice return to action when 5^th of 11 at Doncaster last time and did win on soft ground when trained in Ireland. Return to 7f and soft ground will suit.

German raider Axana must be respected although her best form has come over a mile. Returned with a win last time and could go well.

Ascot

The feature race of a competitive Ascot card is the big field Victoria Cup (Heritage Handicap) (3:40). There are three races being covered on ITV Racing.

1:55 – Exclusively At tote.co.uk British EBF Fillies’ Handicap (Class 2) – 1m

Dreamloper made an encouraging return to action when 4^th off 11 at Haydock on her seasonal reappearance. A C&D winner last season she’s capable of winning off her present mark but soft ground would be an unknown.

Lights On put in a career best when winning at Nottingham last time. Open to further improvement this season. Soft ground would be an unknown for the 4-year-old but her pedigree offers encouragement that she will be effective on it.

Separate was a never nearer third behind Lights On at Nottingham. That was the 4-year-old’s first start for new trainer Julie Camacho. Entitled to be sharper today but the winner is open to more progress.

Poets Lady was 5^th to Lights On last time.  Can finish closer should the ground ease significantly and might get an easy lead out in front.

Conservatoire won twice on heavy ground last autumn. Open to more progress as a 3-year-old and should give a good account on her return to action.

2:30 – tote+ Pays More At tote.co.uk Buckhounds Stakes (Listed Race) – 1m 4f

The likelihood of soft ground brings Deja, Without A Fight and Albaflora into the mix.

Without A Fight has the benefit of race fitness and ran well over here over 1m 6f last October.

Albaflora finished one place ahead of Without A Fight here last year. The filly could progress further as a 4-year-old but may be better over a bit further.

Tyson Fury is an intriguing contender he won a novice over C&D last season on soft ground and ran like the race was needed when behind Without A Fight on his Newbury return 20-days ago.  Lightly raced, just the four career starts and has the size to do better with racing.

1pt each way – Tyson Fury – 12/1 @ Bet365

3:40 – Victoria Cup (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) – 7f

Just a 29-runner puzzle to solve. Plenty in with a chance and here are the five on my shortlist:

Acquitted ran Palace Pier close on his seasonal reappearance last season but didn’t beat a rival on his next two starts. Made another good seasonal reappearance when a neck 2nd of 20 in the Spring Mile at Doncaster. Only up 1lb for that effort and remains ahead of his mark. Softer ground another likely positive.

River Nymph failed to stay the mile when well fancied for the Lincoln Handicap last time. A C&D winner last year. He will be suited to the drop back in distance and won on soft ground at Newbury last August.

Escobar ran well in big field handicaps here over 7f/1m in 2019 winning the valuable Balmoral Handicap (heavy) over a mile, off 2lb higher, on his final start of that year. Plenty of encouragement to be taken from his 3^rd of 6 in a tactical race at Haydock last time.

Chiefofchiefs won the 6f Silver Wokingham at Royal Ascot in 2020. Returned from a five months absence with a promising 5^th of 10 in the Listed Cammidge Trophy at Doncaster. These big field handicap really suit him although his hold up style means he needs plenty of luck in the run. Has the ideal man in Jamie Spencer for the race. Slight concern that he might be better on a sounder surface though.

Jack’s Point was in good f Buckingham Palace Handicap on his first two start last season, making all the win at Newmarket before finishing 2^nd of 23 over C&D in the Buckingham Palace Handicap at Royal Ascot. First start for new year trainer and looks set to be the pace angle for those drawn low. Andrea Atzeni is a positive jockey booking and is 5 winners from 19 rides when riding for trainer Tom Clover.

1pt win – Acquitted – 8/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

1pt win – Escobar – 16/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook

1pt each way – Jack’s Point – 20/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes (paying 6 places 1/5 odds)

Cheers

John

Hi all,

Spirit Dancer got caught in the shadow of the post at Chester yesterday so I couldn’t keep the winning run going. Hopefully today we can regain the winning thread.

The Chester Cup is the feature race of the final day of the May Festival and it’s the usual tricky puzzle. There’s also a good flat card at Ascot and ITV Racing are covering the 2:00 from Market Rasen as part of their Chester coverage.

I have had an in depth look at four of the Chester handicaps. Plus, a couple of races at Ascot.

Chester’s May Festival – Day 3

1:45 – tote+ Placepots Pay More Earl Grosvenor Handicap (Class 2) – 7 ½ f

Revich has a great record at the course with form figures 15311. The 5-year-old has also run well on both starts this season finishing 6^th in the Lincoln and 4^th in the Spring Cup. Well suited to good to soft going and has great chance here from stall 1.

Charles Hills is 6-21 with his runners in the past 14-days and has a big contender in Dulas. The 4-year-old put in a career best effort on turf when 2^nd of 13 at Haydock 13-days ago. Nicely berthed in stall 2 and can go close from just 1lb higher than last time.

Grove Ferry finished 8^th in the Lincoln Handicap. He’s another with a handy draw in stall 3. He will be ridden prominently and should be competitive if handling the track

Ascension finished three places behind Revich in the Lincoln on his seasonal reappearance and should be suited by this turning extended 7f. However, he does have a trickier draw in stall 8 to overcome.

Verdict: Rather unimaginative but I can’t see beyond Revich and Dulas. The former’s effectiveness on good to soft swings it for me.

2:45 – tote+ Chester Cup Handicap (Class 2) – 2m 2 ½ f

The big betting race of the week with a maximum field of 17 declared to meet the starter.

Last year’s winning trainer Mark Johnston saddles Trumpet Man.  The 4-year-old improved for stepping up to 2m in the second half of the season and will be sharper for his recent seasonal appearance at Musselburgh. A prominent racer he should be well suited to the track. Tricky draw in stall 12 overcome but if Franny Norton can get him into a good position, he’s got a good chance

Glencadam Glory who finished runner-up in last season’s Ebor Handicap, now 4lb lower, also ran in the Musselburgh race and wasn’t subjected to hard race on his return to action. Nicely treated on his best form if he stays this marathon trip.

Cardano did well on the all-weather over the winter making all to win twice over 1m 4f at Lingfield. Improved further for a return to turf when a neck 2^nd of 13 in the Musselburgh race. That was the the 5-year-old’s first start at 1m 6f. Takes a further 4 ½ furlong step in trip today but has stall one and Ryan Moore has been booked for the ride.

Besides Cardano Ian Williams also saddles The Grand Visir. No stamina issues for the 7-year-old who won the 2m 4f Ascot Stakes Handicap at the Royal Meeting in 2019. Stall 11 to negotiate but isn’t out of it if they go a decent gallop.

Falcon Eight is an interesting runner from the Dermot Weld stable. A smart performer when at his best who has been gelded since his last run last summer. Best form has come on a sounder surface. Trainer has sent over four horses for the race and three have them placed since 2010. Yard is just 1-19 in the past 14-days.

Verdict: Glencadam Glory is on a good mark but there are doubts about his stamina for this marathon trip.  Drier ground would suit Falcon Eight. Cardano has solid credentials and Trumpet Man improved for stepping up to 2m last autumn.

1pt win – Cardano – 9/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

1pt win – Trumpet Man – 10/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

3:45 – Retraining Of Racehorses Handicap (Class 2) – 1m 2 ½ f

Alternative Fact three career wins have come on soft ground so he might not want the ground to dry out too much and his style of running may not be suited by the track. However, Ryan Moore booked and if he’s fully tuned up for his seasonal return is handicapped to be competitive.

Restorer is a bit of a course specialist with the 9-year’s old’s form figures over C&D being 14221. First run since winning here in September but he’s gone well fresh in the past – 4 wins from 8 runs when returning from a 121-day break.

Lawn Ranger finished a short head behind Restorer in that Chester race and can meet him on 4lb better terms today. He also won over C&D on his only other start here last August off today’s mark. Ran like the run was needed om his return to action at Kempton last time. Stall six could be better but if he gets out in front, he looks a bit of value.

Verdict: Restorer and Lawn Ranger were first & second over C&D last year and at the weights I just prefer the latter.

1pt win – Lawn Ranger – 9/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

4:20 – tote+ Chester Plate Handicap (Class 2) – 2m 2 ½ f

The Chester Cup consolation race and the betting is headed by Postileo. The Roger Varian trained 4-year-old put in a career best effort after 8 months off the track when finishing runner-up in the Queen’s Prize at Kempton. He’s lightly raced and is open to more improvement this season.

Elysian Flame produced a career best when winning over an extended 2m at Newbury. Today’s extra distance should really suit him.  Prior to Newbury he had seemed at his best on testing ground but he had no problem with good going last time. Just 3lb higher here and set for a big run although given his hold up style he will need luck in the run.

Ian Williams trained Indianapolis was having his first start for the trainer when a 7½ lengths 9th of 13 to Themaxwecan at Musselburgh last time. He wasn’t subjected to hard race that day and should be sharper today. Stays 2m, has a handy draw in stall 4 and looks on a winnable mark.

Williams also saddles another horse on a good mark in Speedo Boy. The 7-year-old ran with credit when 3rd of 4 to Hochfeld at Nottingham last time. That was his first start for six months and he will strip fitter for that run. Good draw in stall 4.

Joseph O’Brien brings over Grandmaster Flash. The 5-year-old has won his last two at Dundalk. Yet to win on turf after nine starts but showed he’s effective on soft ground when a 1 ¾ length 5^th of 20 in a valuable 2m 1f handicap at the Galway Festival. Respected from stall 6 with Ryan Moore booked.

Brasca put in a career best on RPR’s when winning over 1m 4f at Salisbury 12-days ago. Has a 3lb penalty for his last win but is lightly raced for a 5-year-old and races from stall 1.

Green Book is a rare flat runner for Venetia Williams. Had decent middle distance flat form when trained in France. Ran with plenty of promise when a 3 ½ 2^nd of 14 at Hereford on his first start for the trainer last time. The winner Herbiers has since gone onto win two valuable handicap hurdles Hard to weigh up the 4-year-old’s French form but he’s in stall 2 and Franny Norton is an interesting jockey booking.

Verdict: Just as competitive as the Cup, if not more so. Postileo and Brasco, ground an unknown for the latter, are open to more progress and hail from inform yards. Green Book is a interesting off a light weight for Venetia Williams. Ian Williams saddles six and his best two could be Indianapolis & Speedo Boy. Elysian Flame remains on a good mark after his recent Newbury success but he’s a hold up horse and will need luck in the run. Grandmaster Flash has been in good form at Dundalk and has Ryan Moore in the saddle.

1pt win – Elysian Flame – 11/2 @ Bet365

Ascot

3:30 – Jonah Jones often runs well in these sprint handicaps but he hasn’t won since his juvenile season. Needs a strongly run 6f as he showed when finishing an unlucky length 3^rd of 11 over C&D last September. Should be all the better for his Kempton seasonal return last month

Fresh also showed a liking for C&D when a strong finishing nose 2^nd of 9 here on soft ground last October. The 4-year-old finished two places and two lengths behind Jonah Jones in the Kempton race. Will be sharper today and handles ease in the ground. Another who should strip fitter today.

Pendleton returns from 560-day absence. He was an improving sprint handicapper on soft/heavy ground when last seen in action in 2019, including winning here over 5f. Starts back on a competitive mark and not totally out of this if ready to roll.

Verdict: Jonah Jones deserves to win a race like this but is on a long losing run.  Fresh showed he was suited by C&D last year and can improve for his Kempton seasonal reappearance. Pendleton appeals at bigger odds despite his long spell off the track.

1pt win – Fresh – 8/1 @ Bet365

1pt each way – Pendleton – 16/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes (both paying 4 places ¼ odds)

4:40 – Plenty of unexposed 3-year-old’s who could rate higher than their present marks. One of them is the Roger Varian trained Invincible Swagger.  A winner of a Kempton maiden in January. Thee top-weight showed he handled the turf when 2^nd of 9 at Thirsk 20-days ago. Capable of more improvement and should be better suited by Ascot’s stiff mile.

Orgetorix won at York (soft) on his second juvenile start last season and improved further when 2^nd of 13 at Kempton last time. Returns from a 183-day absence but if fully tuned up looks on a good mark for his handicap debut.  

Year of The Dragon makes his turf/handicap debut. He wasn’t suited by the track at Lingfield when a fast-finishing ½ length 3^rd of 12 last time. Capable of better and today’s stiffer test should suit.

Knowwhentorun is one of the more exposed of the runners but he could be on a good mark if seeing out this stiff mile. Found himself on the wrong part of the track when a 6 ½ length 7^th of 15 behind the useful Mithras on his handicap debut at Newbury last time. Best form as a 2-year-old came on heavy ground so any ease in the ground is a positive but stall 1 may not be one.

Verdict: Plenty of juice in the ground will suit Knowwhentorun and Orgetorix and both are on attractive marks. Invincible Swagger has top-weight but he’s open to more improvement and should be suited by a stiff mile.  

1pt win – Invincible Swagger – 7/1 @ Bet365

Cheers

John

Hi all,

I’m glad I went 2pts on Showalong at Chester. The improving handicap sprinter goes well with some in the ease in the ground and he should win a nice sprint handicap this season.

Day two of Chester’s May Festival and we have another potential Derby Trial the Listed Dee Stakes (2:15). The feature race of another seven-race card is the Group 3 Ormonde Stakes (3:15). Which see’s the seasonal returns of Japan and possible Ascot Gold Cup contender Trueshan.

Chester May Festival – Day 2

1:45 – Satchell Moran Solicitors Business Interruption Claims Handicap (Class 2) – 5f

A competitive opening race with ten declared to go to post for this sprint handicap.

The bookies ‘early bird’ favourite is last time out Musselburgh winner Jabbarockie. The form of his Musselburgh success is solid and although he been raised 3lb for that win its worth noting he ran well on his second start last season also after winning first time out. A front runner he’s a got a good draw in stall one, He’s won on good to soft/soft going in the past and looks set to go well.

The Tim Easterby pair of Count D’ Orsay & Copper Knight finished well behind the favourite at Musselburgh. However, both ran like the race was needed. Count D’Orsay is well suited to easy ground and his form figures on good to soft/soft going are 112112. Stall six could be better but if there is soft in the going description, I think he will be competitive.

Copper Knight is another who likes to be up with the pace. He finished runner-up in this race in 2019 and can race off 15lb lower.  Best run last season came when beaten a short head at Newmarket off 17lb higher. Not the most consistent of horses but his form figures over C&D are 112 and he’s 4-8 in May.  Temptingly handicapped and stall 3 is a big positive.

Lihou won a 3-year-old handicap over 6f at this meeting in 2019 and his form figures at Chester are 121. He’s won twice on good to soft on turf although probably wouldn’t want much softer. All his career wins have come when racing around a bend (0-16 2 placed, on a straight 5f/6f). William Buick is a good jockey booking and stall 4 is fine.

Verdict: The most competitive race of the day and I really like three. I have reluctantly left out Count D’Orsay who will like the ground but may just be better for the run and could be one for York.

1pt win – Copper Knight – 5/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

1pt win – Lihou – 17/2 @ Bet365

2:15 – Biggest Dividends At tote.co.uk Dee Stakes (Listed Race) (Colts & Geldings) – 1m 2 ½ f

Aidan O’Brien has saddled six of the last nine winners of this race, including the last three. He runs Ontario. The colt finished a2¾ lengths 3rd of 7 to Tactical in the Free Handicap at Newmarket on his seasonal return. Seven furlongs would have been on the short side for him, given on pedigree he’s a more a middle-distance horse. Solid form as a 2-year-old including finishing third to Mac Swiney in a Group 2.

Race favourite Yibir seems likely to set the pace from stall 3. He showed he had trained on from two to three when a when ¾ length third of 10 to Alenquer in Sandown’s Classic Trial last time. Probably capable of better and get’s the first time cheekpieces today.

El Drama won on his sole juvenile start at Doncaster last October (soft) and hasn’t been disgraced on either start on the all-weather this spring. Needs the step up to 1m 2f to bring out more improvement.

Foxes Tales is unexposed, having just had the two starts. The colt built on the promise racecourse debut when winning a Newbury mile maiden last time. Another open to more improvement if handling today’s softer ground and the track. Trainer Andrew Balding saddled the winner of yesterday’s Vase.

2:45 – Deepbridge Estate Planning Service Handicap (Class 2) – 7 ½ f

Aquaman made a winning seasonal return when landing a Catterick 7f novice race 15-days ago. Likely to be ridden prominently and has a good draw in stall 3.  He’s been raised 3lb for his handicap debut but should be competitive.

Buxted Too a winner of a Chelmsford maiden on is return from a gelding operation two starts back. He continued in good form when a respectable 2^nd of 9 to Naamoos on handicap debut at Sandown last time. William Buick takes the ride and inform trainer Ian Williams likes to have a winner at the meeting. . Good draw in stall one and he should run well.

Aleas is open to plenty improvement. The gelding won a Newbury mile maiden (heavy) on his second juvenile start and improved further when winning on his handicap debut at Kempton in November. Up 4lb for last time but should be competitive of his new mark. Bred to appreciate 1m 2 ½ f though and stall nine is a bit off putting.

1pt win – Buxted Too – 11/2 @ Bet365

3:15 – tote+ Pays You More At tote.co.uk Ormonde Stakes (Group 3) – 1m 5 ½ f

Group 1 winner Japan, trained by Aidan O’Brien, is the class horse of the race but he doesn’t have a good record first time up and could be vulnerable.

Trueshan goes well on testing ground as he showed when winning the Group 2 Long Distance Cup (2m) on Champions Day.  He must give Japan 5lb here but could be capable of doing with Japan likely to be better for the run.

3:45 – Destination 2 Handicap (Class 3) – 1m 2 ½ f

Spirit Dancer won a Ripon maiden (soft) last August and improved again when finishing a ½ length 2nd of 12 at Ayr on his handicap debut. Only 7/1 for his seasonal reappearance at Newbury last time, only 13^th of 16, but likely needed the run and probably found the ground a little too quick for his liking. Good draw in stall 2 for a prominent racer.

Baryshnikov won over C&D and Ayr last September. Slowly away on his seasonal return at Doncaster the 5-year-old ran better than his 14 ½ length 9^th of 16 suggests last time. Should be sharper today, goes well at the track and has a handy draw in stall 3.

Snow Ocean is another previous C&D winner. James Doyle is an interesting jockey booking but he will do well to get a prominent position from stall 11.

Sarvan is another who has a wide draw in stall 10.  The 4-year-old has run well on all his three starts this year. He tends to be ridden from off the pace and will likely need them to go hard up front if he’s to have a chance. Has the ability to win a handicap like this but needs everything to fall right to do so.

Verdict: Another tricky handicap. Sarvan will pop up in one of these races when the cards fall right. Baryshnikov has winning C&D form and a handy low draw. Slight preference though for the equally well drawn Spirit Dancer who will prefer today’s ground.

1pt win – Spirit Dancer – 5/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

Cheers

John

Good morning all,

Chester’s May Festival is back after a year off due to lockdown.

It’s the start of a busy week of Derby & Oaks Trials starting at Chester today. Moving to Lingfield on Saturday and York’s Dante Meeting next week.

There’s a seven-race card at Chester for day one of the May Festival. I have looked at the first four races on the card although I’m keeping my tipping down today.

The highlight’s being the Group 3 Chester Vase (3:15). It’s an Epsom Derby Trial which was won in 2013 by Ruler Of The World before he went onto victory in that year’s Derby. In 2017 Wings Of Eagles finished runner-up in the race before going onto success at Epsom. Both horses were trained by Aidan O’Brien who has farmed the race in recent seasons winning seven of the last nine renewals.

The other classic trial is the Cheshire Oaks (2:15).  The race was won in 2017 by Enable before her win in the Epsom Oaks. John Gosden or Aidan O’Brien have saddled the last five winners of the race.

Chester May Festival – Day 1

The heavy rain that fell on Monday has had an impact on underfoot conditions. Turning the going description from good to firm too good to soft

1:45 – CM Stellar Sports Lily Agnes Conditions Stakes (Class 2) – 5f

Seven juveniles have been declared for the annual curtain raiser and five of them were last time out winners.

Race Trends

A low draw tends to be an advantage over 5f at Chester. However, looking at the recent trends for the race horses drawn in Stall 1 are 0 wins from 11 runners 1 placed.

In the past 12 years the race has been run on soft or good to soft going on four occasions and all four winners were drawn in stalls to 2 to 5.

The market has tended to be a good guide in recent years. Horse’s returned 13/2 or bigger are 1 winner from 59 runners since 2008.

Navello is the most experienced horse in the field having already had three starts, winning the last two. However, he has the burden of stall one.

The Richard Hannon trained Armor looked useful when winning at Doncaster on his racecourse debut 11-days ago. That win came on good to firm so today’s ground asks another question of th colt. Ryan Moore booked for the ride.

Devious Angel showed plenty of speed when winning at Southwell last time. That was the filly’s second career start and she should be suited to the track and has a handy draw in stall 2.  Tom Dascombe runners are always worth a second look around here and he saddled the winner of the race in 2013.

David O’Meara saddled the winner in 2019. He runs Beauzon who made all to win at Ripon (good to firm) 11-days ago.  Stall three looks a positive and the colt shouldn’t be far away for a yard among the winners.

Lucy Lulu was a rare first time out early 2-year-old winner for Roger Fell when winning at Doncaster just 4-days ago. It’s a quick turn round for the filly but it would be folly to dismiss her claims.

Verdict: Given the ground is going to be completely different that these juveniles have raced on it’s a no betting race for me but Devious Angel looks the likeliest winner.

2:15 – Weatherbys ePassport Cheshire Oaks (For The Robert Sangster Memorial Cup) (Listed Race) – 1m 3 ½ f

Looking the race trends. The market has been a good guide with those fillies sent off 3/1 or shorter are 8 winners from 17 runners 47% +6.73 13 placed 76% since 2008.

The standouts on juvenile form are Dubai Fountain and Zeyaadah.  Dubai Fountain ended last season with a career best effort when 4^th of 10 in the Fillies’ Mile at Newmarket. Just a neck behind Sunday’s 1,000 Guineas winner Mother Earth. Her prominent style of running should be suited to the track.

Zeyaadah made it 3-3 when winning a Listed race at Newmarket (heavy) in October. She’s has a 3lb penalty to give away to her six rivals here. However, she’s open to more improvement as a 3-year-old and trainer Roger Varian saddled the winner in 2014.

John Gosden has saddled two of the last three winners of the race. He relies on Darlectable You who finished runner-up on her sole juvenile start and occupied the same spot at Newbury last time. A superbly bred filly being a full sister to Too Darn Hot & Lah Ti Dar. She needs to have improved again to win but it’s likely she can rate higher.

Coolmore have two representatives Nicest, trained by Donnacha O’Brien and ridden by Ryan Moore.  The filly’s dam won the Irish Oaks so looks likely to improve for middle distances as a 3-year-old. Their other runner is La Joconde trained by Aidan O’Brien. A daughter of Frankel she’s a half-sister to Irish Derby winner Santiago and is another capable of more progress stepped up to 1m 4f.

Verdict: Dubai Fountain is the best horse on ratings. Zeyaadah is open to more improvement as are the Coolmore pair Nicest & La Joconde.

1pt win – La Joconde – 12/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

2:45 – tote+ At tote.co.uk Handicap (Class 2) – 5f

Cuban Breeze looks the likely pace angle here. A C&D winner as a juvenile she’s is one of two runners for Tom Dascombe, the other being Harmony Lil.  The filly made a pleasing return to action at Nottingham but didn’t build on that promise at Ripon next time. Must be respected back over C&D out of a handy draw in stall 3.

Likely favourite is the lightly raced Showalong. The colt made it 2-5 when making all to win a soft ground novice at York (soft) on his final juvenile start. He shaped with real promise when 3 length 4^th of 13 at Thirsk (good to firm) last time. Both wins have come on soft ground so the recent rain will have been welcomed. Open to more improvement and trainer Tim Easterby won this with Copper Knight in 2017.

Verdict: Cuban Breeze has each way claims but the soft ground makes Showalong a strong favourite here.

2pts win – Showalong – 5/2 @ Bet365

3:15 – Chester Vase Stakes (Group 3) – 1m 4 ½ f

The most valuable race on the card with £45,368 on offer to this year’s winner. Could we see a Derby contender emerge? 

Some of the gloss has been taken away by the non-participation of recent impressive Leopardstown winner Sir Lamorak who was taken out on Tuesday morning on account of the change in going.

The contenders

Aidan O’Brien will sbe represented by Sandhurst. The Galileo colt won a heavy ground maiden at Gowran Park as a juvenile but was never competitive on his seasonal reappearance in the Craven Stakes last time. Looks the sort to improve with racing and gets the addition of the first time cheekpieces for his step up to middle distances.

Sandhurst faces just five rivals. Wirko looks set to head the market now after his win at Epsom last time. First go on rain softened ground but the dam won on heavy in Germany so he shouldn’t be inconvenienced by it.  The son of Kingman has trained on well from two to three and is the one to beat.

Law Of The Sea has won his last two at Kempton and Leicester (good to firm) and is open to further improvement.

Both Fancy Man’s juvenile wins came on soft/good to soft so there are no going issues for the colt. Low key return to action at Newmarket (good to firm) last month but the ground was quicker than he likes and he wasn’t subjected to a hard race. Conditions will be more to his liking today.

Youth Spirit sole 2-year-old win came on soft ground. He finished one place ahead of Fancy Man at Newmarket and should come on for the run.

Osin Murphy has ridden Youth Spirit on his last three starts but he opts for the Roger Charlton trained Pleasant Man. The son of Galileo looked a nice prospect when winning on heavy ground on his racecourse debut last season.  Beaten favourite (5/6) on his Windsor (good to firm) return 23-days ago. Could be open to more progress in the first time cheekpieces, stepped up to 1m 4f and a return to easier ground.

Verdict: If there is a Derby horse in the field it’s Wirko. The soft ground shoukd see good runs from Sandhurst and Pleasant Man.

3:45 – tote+ Pays You More At tote.co.uk Handicap (Class 3) – 6f

I have been waiting for top weight Uncle Jumbo since he was unlucky in the run when a close-up 4^th of 7 at Pontefract on his seasonal reappearance. A good draw in stall 2 and he races off the same mark as last time. Plenty to like about Uncle Jumbo’s chance here. Trainer Kevin Ryan is among the winners and saddled the 2011 winner of this contest.

Good Listener won at Windsor on good to soft last season. He will be sharper for his Wolverhampton reappearance and likely capable of better now going handicapping for the furst time.

Trainer Brian Meehan is 4-9 +26 with his runners in the past 14-days. He saddles Tanfantic who must be respected on yard form but does need to find improvement on his handicap debut. First run on going worse than good.

Paws For Thought made all to win here over 7f last September and followed up at Catterick.  He will need to break quickly from stall six to get to the front and likely faces competition for the lead. Still respected for the Dascombe/Kingscote partnership.

Pivoting made all to win a Pontefract (heavy) auction race on his final juvenile start. Was well behind Uncle Jumbo on his return from a 6-month absence but will be fitter today with that run under his belt. The going last time was good to firm and the softer the ground the better for the gelding. Trainer Tim Easterby win this in 2014.

Verdict: Uncle Jumbo is open to more improvement but at the prices I’m going with Pivoting who should relish the rain softened ground.

1pt win – Pivoting – 15/2 @ Bet365

4:45 – Deepbridge Estate Planning Service Handicap (Class 4) – 7f

The biggest field of the day with fourteen declared to run. Richard Fahey has won this three times in the last nine years. He saddles National League who looked on a winnable mark when ½ length 2^nd of 10 at Redcar two starts back. The 4-year-old wasn’t disgraced when a 4¾ lengths 7th of 16 to Nugget in the Spring Cup Newbury. That was a much better race and the former juvenile course winner must be respected here, albeit stall 8 could have been better.

Lincoln Park put up a respectable effort when a 3 lengths 5th of 15 to Gunmetal at Doncaster (good) last time. The step back up to a sharp 7f is a positive as his a return to easier underfoot conditions. His form figures at Chester on good to soft or worse ground are 1224. On the negative he has wide draw in stall 11 to overcome.

Sir Maximilian might be a 12-year-old but he showed he retains plenty of his old ability when a 4¼ lengths 6th of 13 in a Class 2 handicap Haydock 11-days ago. Back down into Class 4 company here and his record at Chester is 4 wins from 9 runs +18.50 6 placed, including 2-3 over C&D and 2-4 at this meeting. Good draw in stall 2 and Franny Norton booked. Should be fine on good to soft and set for another big run back here.

Verdict: I was hoping for a better price on Sir Maximilian. Lincoln Park and National League have tricky draws to overcome, the latter in particularly, but they are both handicapped to go close at their best.

1pt win – National League – 9/2 – Gen.

Cheers

John

Hi all,

Poetic Flare lands the 2,000 Guineas to keep up the profitable run.

It’s the first fillies Classic of the season at Newmarket today. Although apart from the 1,000 Guineas the rest of the card isn’t as strong as you would like. So it’s a quiet day punting wise for me.

ITV are covering the best of the action from Newmarket and they are also showing two races from Hamilton and one from Salisbury as part of a seven-race programme. I have just looked at the four Newmarket races in this preview.

I will be back on Wednesday for three days at Chester May meeting.

Newmarket

1:50 – Back And Lay On Betfair Exchange Handicap (Class 2) – 1m 4f

The fast ground means just the six go to post. Mark Johnson saddled the winner of this race in 2019 and his two runners Sky Defender & Zabeel Champion are both big contenders and could get the run of the race out in front.

Global Storm won a 1m 2f handicap here last season and wasn’t disgraced on his other two starts of 2020, including finishing 3^rd of 14 at Royal Ascot in a 1m 2f handicap. Off for 7 months, he looked a unlucky in the run when 7^th of 16 at Meydan in February. That was the 4-year-old’s first over 1m 4f and it looks like he will stay the distance.

The Eve Johnson Houghton horses are going better now and her runner Hyanna needs respecting. The mare holds no secrets from the handicapper but she did win first time up last season and five of her six career wins have come on good to firm.

Rodrigo Diaz is arguably the most interesting of the six runners. The 4-year-old improved for the step up to 1m 4f/1m 6f winning three times on the all-weather in August/September. Just the one start on turf. Starts the season off 10lb higher than for his last success but should keep improving.

Verdict: Rodrigo Diaz is the interesting one here and open to the most improvement.  If he’s as good on grass as the synthetics and is ready to roll first time he won’t be far away. Global Storm goes well here and should stay 1m 4f.  Hyanna’s yard is among the winners after a quiet start to the season and the mare will relish the fast ground.

1pt win – Hyanna – 16/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook

2:25 – Betfair Pretty Polly Stakes (Listed Race) (Fillies) – 1m 2f

A’Shaari won her sole start here over 7f as 2-year-old. Should be well suited to 1m 2f and she’s open to plenty of improvement as 3-year-old. Her win came on soft ground and she does have a bit of knee action so quick ground will be an unknown.

Sea Karats a well-bred daughter of Sea The Stars was sent off 10/11 favourite on her racecourse debut at Newbury last month and unlucky not to make it a winning one. She met trouble 1f out and had to be switched but once in the clear she finished her race off strongly to grab third.  She will stay 1m 4f and could be an Oaks filly.

Verdict: Not a betting race for me but hopefully Sea Karats can confirm she’s an Oaks contender by winning this.

3:00 – Betfair Dahlia Stakes (Group 2) (Fillies & Mares) – 1m 1f

Queen Power finished runner-up in this race last season. A talented performer but not the easiest to win with but first time up could be the time to catch her.

Lavender’s Blue returned from a five month lay off to win a Kempton Listed race last month. Winless in 2020 but is well suited to good to firm on turf.

Fooraat finished runner-up to Lavender’s Blue at Kempton. She’s only had six career starts so could be open to more progress as a 4-year-old and I think she can finish ahead of Lavender’s Blue today.

Lady Bowthorpe won a Group 3 at Ascot and put in a cracking effort when a 3¾ lengths 6th of 12 to Nazeef in the Group 1 Sun Chariot Stakes over C&D on her final start. She’s got a good turn of foot but a steadily run race may not suit.

Posted made all to win a Listed race at Sandown in September but was below that form when ridden in the rear a month later in the Group 3 Darley Stakes here over 1m 1f. We might not have seen the best of the 5-year-old and she’s not without a chance if she once again adopts front running tactics.

Verdict: There doesn’t seem to be a huge amount of pace in the race so if Posted is ridden from the front she might be able to dictate like she did at Sandown last season. A slowly run race wouldn’t suit Lady Bowthorpe who’s best when coming off a strong pace. Fooraat is another who could be ridden prominently and she might be capable of better than she’s shown so far.

1pt win – Fooraat – 7/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook

3:40 – Qipco 1000 Guineas Stakes (Group 1) – 1m

Unlike the colts’ classic which was very open. The 1,000 Guineas has been a one-horse book. This all revolves around the once raced Santa Barbara. The filly was impressive when winning on racecourse debut at the Curragh last season and has been subject to some ‘bullish’ reports from trainer Aidan O’Brien. She might well win this as easily as the ante post market suggests but she’s priced up on home reputation more than what she’s achieved on the track.

Alcohol Free was the best of these as a juvenile winning the Group 1 Cheveley Park Stakes here over 6f.  Looked like she needed the run and hadn’t come into her coat before the Fred Darling Stakes at Newbury but was still good enough to win. We know she stays 7f but there is a big doubt about a mile on pedigree. Her best chance will come if Osin Murphy is able to dictate the race from the front.

Sacred and Saffron Beach were first and second in the Nell Gwyn Stakes at the Craven Meeting. Sacred is another with stamina doubts for the mile and I think Saffron Beach will reverse placings with Sacred over a mile and can get into the places.

Thunder Beauty won a Curragh maiden on her racecourse debut. She was then thrown into the deep end of the Group 1 Moyglare Stakes for her next start and wasn’t disgraced in finishing a 3 ½ length fifth.  Proved a big disappointment when only 7^th of 12 in the Prix Marcel Boussac at Longchamp on her final start. It was heavy at Longchamp so I would be happy to forgive her that run as she’s likely to prove a better filly on quick ground.

Verdict: Santa Barbara could blow us all away with an impressive win but at her present price you must take her on. Alcohol Free is a doubtful stayer but if the race is tactical, she can’t be ruled out. Saffron Beach can get the better of Sacred over the mile and could be worth a saver. Thunder Beauty is a filly I like and she’s got each way claims on ground that could bring out more improvement.

1pt each way – Thunder Beauty – 16/1 @ Bet365 (paying 4 places ¼ odds)

1pt win – Saffron Beach – 11/1 @ Bet365

Cheers

John

Hi all,

It’s the first English Classic of the 2021 flat season at Newmarket on Saturday and on Sunday it’s the first fillies’ classic.

The openness of the 2,000 Guineas means fifteen colts are set to meet the starter. The good to firm ground means only one other race on Newmarket’s eight race card has a double figure field the Suffolk Stakes (1:50).

Besides Newmarket, it’s the concluding day of the Punchestown Festival and there are competitive cards at both Goodwood & Thirsk.

I have had a look at five of the six races on ITV this afternoon.

Newmarket

1:50 – “My Oddsboost” On Betfair Suffolk Stakes (Handicap) (Class 2) – 1m 1f

Bell Rock goes really well on the Rowley Course. The 5-year-old won here over a mile first time up last season and finished third in the Cambridgshire. William Carver takes off 5lb and that could enable the gelding to make it 3-4 on his first start of the season.

Bright Melody is 5lb higher than when winning handicap over today’s distance at Meydan last time. Needs to improve again to win again but is going the right way.

Maydanny hails from the inform Mark Johnston yard but has to prove he can win off a career high mark of 100. Prominent racers do well here though and the he’s suited to quick ground.

Mascat is a consistent handicapper and was back to form when a ¾-length 2nd of 10 to Zabeel Champion at Ripon 16-days ago.

Starcat started last season in the 2,000 Guineas but failed to win on five subsequent starts in handicap company. Career best effort when a 3 ¾ length 4^th of 14 at Doncaster (1m 2f) last September. The 4-year-old has been gelded since he last run and could better as a 4-year-old.

1pt win – Starcat – 5/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

2:25 – Palace House Stakes (Group 3) – 5f

Judicial has finished runner-up twice in this race including last season. He might be a 9-year-old but he showed last season when winning a Chester Listed race that he was better than ever.

Garrus won a 5f Listed race as a 3-year-old. Missed all of last season but has returned in great form winning at Wolverhampton in March and then finishing runner-up to one of today’s rivals Come From The Dark in a Newbury handicap 15-days ago. Get’s 4lb, for a neck defeat, from that one today and there shouldn’t be much between the pair again. Come From The Dark is an improving sprinter and that improvement may not have levelled out. Needs a strong pace to come off be at his best.

3:00 – Betfair Exchange Jockey Club Stakes (Group 2) – 1m 2f

An intriguing race even though there are only five runners. William Haggas saddles two of them Al Zaraqaan & Pablo Escobarr. The latter will like the quick ground but the former is the more interesting of the pair. Al Zaraqaan improved again when landing the four timer at Kempton 35-days ago. Last three of those wins have come on the all-weather but he did win at Doncaster (good to firm) last summer. Up from handicap company today but open to more improvement for a return to 1m 4f.

Pyledriver was one of the stories of last season winning the Group 2 King Edward VII Stakes at Royal Ascot and Great Voltigeur Stakes at York and probably didn’t stay when third in the St Leger. Clear top on official ratings and could do even better as a 4-year-old.

Mark Johnston saddles the remaining two runners Sir Ron Priestley & Thunderous. The first named was a big improver two seasons back and finished runner-up in that season’s St Leger. Missed all last year but returned to win a 1m 6f Listed race at Nottingham last month. The only front runner in the lineup and likely to get to an uncontested lead. Thunderous was very disappointing on his seasonal return Gordon Richards Stakes at Sandown last Friday. Quick turnaround for last years Dante Stakes winner but he wouldn’t be the first of the yard’s runners to bounce back from a poor run.

3:40 – Qipco 2000 Guineas Stakes (Group 1) – 1m

A very open looking renewal of the first colt’s classic. Aidan O’Brien saddles three in Wembley, Battleground & Van Gogh. Wembley finished runner-up in last year’s Dewhurst Stakes and was the best of these as juvenile. Ryan Moore takes the ride. Van Gogh won a Group 1 at Saint-Cloud (heavy) on his final start last season. Might need 1m 2f to be seen at his best but a strong pace should see him being competitive. Battleground 2-4 as a juvenile and finished runner-up in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf on his final start. Open to more improvement as 3-year-old.

Thunder Moon showed a good turn of foot to win the Group 1 National Stakes last season but found the soft ground blunting his speed when third in the Dewhurst. Should stay the mile and the better ground will suit him better than last time.

Charlie Appleby saddles recent Craven winner Master Of The Seas who goes well on quick ground and showed he handles the track well last time. The other Appleby runner is One Ruler who won last years Autumn Stakes over C&D and finished runner-up in the Futurity Trophy at Doncaster.

Lucky Vega won the Group 1 Phoenix Stakes last season and finished runner-up in the Middle Park on his final start. Best form last season over 6f. He should stay 7f but a strongly run mile could stretch his stamina.

Mutasaabeq has been supplemented after his win here over 7f at the Craven Meeting last time. Also won his only start as juvenile here. Lacks the experience of most of his rivals but looks capable of plenty of improvement and should stay the mile.

Poetic Flare showed he’s trained on from two to three when winning the 2,000 Guineas Trial at Leopardstown 20-days ago. Showed a likeable attitude when winning last time and is open to more improvement for the step up to a mile. Trainer Jim Bolger won this in 2013 with Poetic Flare’s sire Dawn Approach and two of his other runners since 1997 have placed. Racing on the quickest ground he’s faced so far but if he handles it can get into the money.

Verdict:  A competitive renewal of the race. All three of the Aidan O’Brien runners are contenders and I wouldn’t be surprised if the outsider of the three Van Gogh was the best of his trio. Thunder Moon will be suited by the quick ground and has a good turn of foot. I don’t really fancy Master Of The Sea & One Ruler. Lucky Vega probably won’t stay a mile although he looks overpriced on his juvenile form Mutasaabeq should stay the mile and looked an exciting prospect when winning here at the Craven Meeting. Poetic Flare showed quality attitude when winning at Leopardstown and has each way claims.  

1pt each way – Poetic Flare – 14/1 @ Bet365 (paying 4 places 1/5 odds)

Thirsk

ITV racing are also covering the Thirsk Hunt Cup. There’s some excellent prize money on offer for this Class 2 handicap and it’s attracted a big field of runners.

2:40 – Cliff Stud Thirsk Hunt Cup Handicap (Class 2) – 1m

Given the size of the field its good that there’s likely to be good pace.

Astro King and Nugget both won their last starts and are progressive.  The former is up 6lb for a Nottingham win 24-days ago. He’s only had two starts on turf and looks open to more improvement of the front two in the betting.

Acquitted ran Palace Pier close on his seasonal reappearance last season but didn’t beat a rival on his next two starts. Made another good seasonal reappearance when a neck 2^nd of 20 in the Spring Mile at Doncaster. Only up 1lb for that effort and remains ahead of his mark. Quick ground is a bit of an unknown and a low draw isn’t usually a positive in a big field handicaps over mile here.

William Haggas won this in 2018 and has another live contender in Tom Collins.  The 4-year-old won two of his eight starts on turf for previous trainer David Elsworth. First start since switching to the Haggas yard. Now 5lb above his last winning mark but looks the sort to improve as a 4-year-old. Stall 13 isn’t great but if it’s not an inconvenience won’t be far away.

It’s been a great four days at the Punchestown Festival and I’m loathe not put up some selections from the Irish track today. I don’t have the time to look at the card in the same detail as I have for the previous four days but I have had a look at three of the handicaps.

Verdict: Can Acquitted build on his promising seasonal return at Doncaster. If he does, he’s on a good mark. Astro King looks progressive whilst Tom Collins is interesting on his first start for William Haggas and looks to have been primed for this.

1pt win – Tom Collins – 7/1 @ Bet365 & Paddy Power

Punchestown

2:50 – Colm Quinn BMW Group Handicap Chase – 3m 7f

Mister Fogpatches looks the one to beat after finishing a 4¼ lengths 3rd of 22 to Mighty Thunder in Scottish Grand National at Ayr last time. Proved his stamina for 4m at Ayr but needs to jump better than he did there. If it all click jumping wise there is staying handicap chase in the 7-year-old.

Regal Encore has tended to be at his best at Ascot but he did finish runner-up in the race in 2019. Trainer Anthony Honeyball had a winner here on Thursday and although the 13-year-old is vulnerable to younger legs he will give his backers a good run for their money.

1pt win – Regal Encore – 8/1 @ Bet365

4:30 – Palmerstown House Pat Taaffe Handicap Chase (Grade B) – 3m ½ f

Ten Ten comes into the race in solid form having finished runner-up over hurdles and occupying the same position in the Leinster National last month. Up 4lb but is a solid enough contender. Didn’t get to race when whipping round at the start for a handicap chase here on Wednesday. Looks interesting on his Leinster National run.

Fag An Bealach put up a much improved performance when winning the Ulster National at Downpatrick last month. Clearly the mare stays well, goes well on decent ground and although she’s been raised 10lb for that success remains on a good mark if in the same form as last time.

1pt win – Ten Ten – 8/1 @ Bet365

5:05 – BARONERACING.COM Handicap Hurdle (Grade B) – 2m 4f

This is arguably the most competitive handicap of the five days of the festival.

Chatham Street Lad looks well handicapped back over hurdles given his form over fences this season. Emmet Mullins saddles The Shunter also back over hurdles today and Grade 2 winning novice hurdle Cape Gentlemen who makes his handicap debut on just his fourth start over hurdles. The 5-year-old has a tough mark off 140 to overcome but is open to more progress.

Drop The Anchor won Ladbrokes Hurdle at Leopardstown two starts back and was an excellent 3¼ lengths 7th of 25 in the County Hurdle at Cheltenham last time. Still to prove he stays 2m 4f but he finished his race of strongly last time and looks worth another try at the distance.

On Eagles Wings and Goodbye Someday were first and second in a Grade 2 at Navan in March and their shouldn’t be much between the pair here.The winner has improved since when a 3¾ lengths 5th of 20 to Lady Breffni over 3m at Fairyhouse. The form of that race got a big boast when the 4^th Capadanno easily won a 3m handicap hurdle here on Thursday. Can race off the same mark here and the progressive 7-year-old won’t be inconvenienced by the drop back in trip.

Lady Breffni is 6lb higher than for her Fairyhouse win so isn’t certain to confirm form with On Eagles Wings especially as the drop back in trip isn’t certain to suit. Still, she’s mare in good form and can’t be discounted for a trainer in great form and has won six of the last ten running’s of the race, including the last three.  Besides Lady Breffini Willie Mullins saddles nine of the 24 runners and the best of them could be Sayo. The 7-year-old ran to his very best when 4^th of 26 in the Coral Cup at Cheltenham last time. He jumped much better than he has done in the past and Rachel Blackmore has been booked for the ride.

1pt win – On Eagles Wings – 14/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

1pt each way – Drop The Anchor – 18/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook (both paying 6 places 1/5 odds)

Cheers

John

Hi all,

A good three days so far at the Punchestown Festival. Let’s hope I can maintain it on Friday.

A very busy week or so coming up. The final two days of the Punchestown, Qipco Guineas Weekend at Newmarket and on Wednesday it’s three days of action at Chester’s May Festival.  Today’ selections are once again from Punchestown.  

The preview is earlier than normal because there are some standout early prices worth taking.

Punchestown Festival – Day 4

4:15 – EMS Copiers Novice Handicap Chase (Grade A) – 2m

Top -weight Asterion Forlange’s last three runs have come in Grade 1 company, including a career best when 5 lengths 3rd of 8 to Chantry House at the Cheltenham Festival. The class horse of the race but he hasn’t looked natural over fences and his jumping will be tested in this big field. I can let him win at around 11/4 in what looks a competitive race.

Besides Asterion Forlange Willie Mullins also saddles Fan De Blues. The 6-year-old is an eight-race maiden over fences but seems to be getting the hang of it. Put in a career best effort when an 8½ lengths second of 14 to Montagne d’Argent in handicap at Gowran Park last time. Stays 2m 2f and looks worth another go at today’ distance.  Can win off his present mark when everything clicks.

JP McManus has a couple of big contenders in Dostal Phil & School Boy Hours.

Dostal Phil arguably put in career best effort when 2 ¼ length third of 18 in the Red Rum Handicap Chase at Aintree last time. The runner-up Sully D’Oc Aa gave the form of that race a major boost when winning a handicap here yesterday. Stays 2m 2f but 2m 5f is a bit of an unknown. On the plus side trainer Philip Hobbs brought over Wishful Thinking to win this race in 2011 and Simon Torrens has been booked to take off a handy 3lb.

School Boy Hours is 0-8 over fences but has placed five times. Hasn’t quite lived up to early expectations over fences but its too early to write the 8-year-old off as he looks on a winnable mark. Stays 3m, so no stamina issues and I can see him going close.

1pt win – Dostal Phil – 15/2 @ Bet365

1pt win – School Boy Hours – 9/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

1pt win – Fan De Blues – 14/1 @ Bet365

4:50 – Hanlon Concrete Irish EBF Glencarraig Lady Francis Flood Mares Handicap Chase (Grade B) – 2m 5f

Demi Plie 3 wins from 9 runs over fences put in a career best effort when 1¼ lengths 2nd of 5 to Elimay in a Mares’ Listed race at Fairyhouse 27-days ago. This is just her third start since September and this has likely been the plan. Capable of going close if reproducing anything like her last run.

Jessica Harrington has saddled the winner of this race twice since 2014. She runs Magic Of Light who the race in 2018 and unseated her rider at the 4^th in the Grand National. Not of it at the weights but probably needs further these days.

The other Harrington runner Rapid Response is interesting. The 7-year-old looked to be returning to winning form when a 4 ½ length 3rd of 12 at Fairyhouse 25-days ago. On a workable mark and won’t be far away.

1pt win – Demi Plie – 15/2 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook

1pt win – Rapid Response – 11/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

5:25 – Paddy Power Champion Hurdle (Grade 1) – 2m

It’s hard to see Honeysuckle being beaten here. The only negative is the form of the Henry De Bromhead yard. If she is below her best the one that could take advantage is the quirky but very talented Goshen. He clearly needs to go right-handed and I can see him running a good race. However, he does need the favourite to underperform to win. The 14/1 available with Bet365 & Ladbrokes looks to tempting to ignore.

1pt win – Goshen – 14/1 @ Bet365 & Ladbrokes

6:00 – Alanna Homes Champion Novice Hurdle (Grade 1) – 2m 4f

Bob Olinger and Gaillard Du Mesnil finished first and second in the Ballymore Novices Hurdle at Cheltenham. There is no reason why the runner-up will reverse placing with the winner here but once again the form of the yard is a concern.

7:05 – SalesSense International Novice Hurdle – 2m

I like the claims of the J P McManus pair Dreamsrmadeofthis & Get My Drift. The former looked an exciting prospect when winning a Cork maiden Hurdle 36-days ago. That was a great effort from the filly on her racecourse debut and she will surely improve further with racing. J P’s retained jockey Mark Walsh who rode the 4-year-old last time opts for Get My Drift. The 5-year-old looked useful when winning a Leopardstown maiden hurdle over Christmas. Returned from a 3-month break when 4th of 8 to Ashdale Bob in a 2m 4f Grade 2 at Fairyhouse last time. Ultimately well beaten but shaped better than his final position suggests as, he was still going ok when hampered by a faller three out.

1pt win – Dreamsrmadeofthis – 9/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook

1pt win – Get My Drift – 9/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook

Cheers

John

Hi all,

Guiri’s win in the first at Punchestown gave us a tidy profit on the day. Just the two Grade 1’s at Punchestown today but there are three big field handicaps to get stuck into.

Punchestown Festival – Day 3

3:40 – Specialist Joinery Group Handicap Hurdle – 2m

Five Helmets comes into the race on a hat trick after winning on his handicap hurdle debut at Navan last month. Up 9lb for that win but he’s only 5-year-old and capable of more improvement.

Ena Baie returned from a three-month break when 4^th of 8 at Cork 25-days ago. Back in handicap company today and joint top-weight with Five Helmets. Jordan Gainford takes off a useful 7lb and the mate looks primed for a big run.

Rock Chica has placed on her last two starts and brings some solid form to the race. Just 1lb higher than when an improved 2 & ½ lengths third of 16 in a mares’ only handicap hurdle at Fairyhouse 16-days ago.

The lightly raced Golf Marin seemed to improve for the step up into handicap company last time when sixth behind Five Helmet’s at Navan. He wasn’t given hard race in the straight when his chance was gone. He gets 9lb from Five Helmets for a 14 ½ length beating. However, it’s likely we haven’t seen the best of the 5-year-old yet.

1pt win – Ena Baie – 8/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook

4:15 – Pigsback.com Handicap Chase (Grade B) – 2m

Plenty in with a chance and J P McManus has a strong hand with five of the 21 declared runners.

Entoucas is still a maiden over the larger obstacles but you couldn’t fault his short head 2nd of 19 in the Grand Annual at the Cheltenham Festival and he could well have won that day but for a mistake at the second last.  Just 2lb higher here and has a valuable handicap pot in him.

Top Moon is 0-8 over fences but ran well when a neck 2^nd of 20 in a valuable handicap chase at the Dublin Racing Festival. Pulled up when failing to stay in the Irish Grand National last time. Competitive back down in trip and has each way claims if reproducing his Leopardstown run here.  

Sully D’Oc Aa comes over from England. A winner at Ascot on his seasonal; reappearance the 7-year-old put in a career best effort when a length 2^nd of 18 in the Red Rum Handicap Chase at Aintree last time. Up 1lb but Simon Torrens takes off 3lb. Remains on a competitive mark and the first time cheekpieces are applied today.

Unexcepted is one of the least exposed in the field, having had just two starts over fences. He beat Entoucas by eight lengths on his chase debut at Tipperary in October. Returned from a 4-month absence to finish 6^th of 9 behind stablemate Energumene in the Grade 1 Arkle Novices Chase at Leopardstown last time. Ultimately well beaten that day but he had travelled nicely for much of the race. A serious contender on his handicap chase debut.

Voix Du Reve a winner over C&D when trained by Willie Mullins. Put in his best performance for present trainer when 3^rd of 6 back over fences in Listed handicap chase at Ayr last time.  The top-weight holds no secrets from the handicapper but will be suited going this way around and Jordan Gainford takes off 7lb.

1pt win – Sully D’Oc Aa – 15/2 @ Bet365 & Paddy Power

1pt win – Unexcepted – 8/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook

1pt each way – Top Moon – 25/1 @ Paddy Power (paying 6 places 1/5 odds)

5:25 – Ladbrokes Champion Stayers Hurdle (Grade 1) – 3m

Flooring Porter set a strong gallop and was never headed when winning the Stayers Hurdle at Cheltenham last time. Not certain to get an easy lead here but will be hard to beat if reproducing his Cheltenham form here.

Beacon Edge finished 4^th in the Stayers Hurdle. He was a little keen in the early stages but coming to two out he looked the biggest danger to the leader but lost two places on the run in. Still, it was a career best effort from the 7-year-old and he can get closer to Flooring Porter.

Ronald Pump finished runner-up in last year’s Cheltenham Stayers Hurdle. He’s only had two starts this season and hasn’t been seen since finishing a ½-length 2^nd of 6 to Honeysuckle in the Hatton’s Grace Hurdle at Fairyhouse. Each way claims if returning at his best.

6:00 – Conway Piling Handicap Hurdle (Grade B) – 3m

Just four & half lengths separated the first four home ina 2m 6f handicap hurdle at Fairyhouse 24-days ago. All four – Max Flamingo, Millen To One, Lynwood Gold and Capilano Bridge – have been declared here although Millen To One is first reserve.

Max Flamingo has improved for racing on decent ground winning at Leopardstown and Fairyhouse on his handicap debut. Up 7lb for that success but is going the right way and is capable of better.

Lynwood Gold had shaped well on his handicap hurdle debut after 5 months off when 6^th of 16 in a Pertemps Qualifier over C&D. He has a decent chance of finishing ahead of Max Flamingo at the revised weights now back at 3m. Yard had two winners here yesterday.

Wakea and Ben Dundee finished 4^th & 5^th at Naas last month. Wakea was having just his second start for over 1000 days and showed that he he retains plenty of his old ability. The 10-year-old should stay 3m and is very well treated on his best form.

Ben Dundee was having his first start for over a year last time. Has won here over hurdles and fences and whilst his stamina for 3m must be taken on trust he can race off a 16lb lower mark than over fences.

Pure Genius won a C&D maiden hurdle in January but was to keen on his handicap hurdle debut at Leopardstown. Bounced back to his best when winning Rated Hurdle at Downpatrick last time. Has been raised 9lb for that win but needs respecting back in handicap company.

Floueur must carry top-weight here but he was strong finishing 3rd of 22 to Galopin des Champs in Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle at Cheltenham last time. Looks worth another try at 3m and has got a good chance.

Capodanno won a Clonmel maiden hurdle in January. The 5-year-old produced a career best when a 2 lengths 4^th of 20 to stablemate Lady Breffni on his handicap hurdle debut at Fairyhouse 26-days ago.  He might well have gone on to win that day if he had jumped the last two hurdles better. Only 1lb higher here and showed he stayed 3m last time. Open to further improvement.

1pt win – Capodanno – 11/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

1pt win – Max Flamingo – 10/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

6:35 – Ryanair Novice Chase (Grade 1) – 2m

Energumene was forced to miss his clash with Shishkin in the Arkle. Prior to that had looked one of the best 2m novice chasers either side of the Irish Sea. He faces four rivals but should be able to set the pace and should win this comfortably.

Captain Guinness finished third in the Arkle and had looked set for second behind Energumene in the Irish Arkle at Leopardstown two starts back.

Janidil won a Grade 1 at Fairyhouse last time. That success came over 2m 4f and it was a much-improved performance from the 7-year-old who seemed to appreciate the drier ground. If stablemate Energumene, isn’t as effective on a sounder surface then Janidil could be the one to take advantage.

7:05 – Close Brothers Mares Novice Hurdle (Listed Race) – 2m

Magic Daze heads the betting and will be tough to beat if building on the promise of her 2^nd of 15 in the Mares’ Novice Hurdle at Cheltenham. Given that was only her third career start it was an excellent effort and she could be capable of more progression. However, the De Bromhead runners haven’t been going that well over the last few days.

Gauloise was well behind the favourite at Cheltenham but that’s wasn’t her true running as she showed when runner-up to Skyace in a Mares’ Grade 1 at Fairyhouse last time. I expect here to get closer to Magic Daze here.

Besides Gauloise. Willie Mullins also saddles Hook Up who finished one place behind her stablemate at Fairyhouse and the interesting The West Awaits. The 6-year-old is only having her third start over hurdles. She seemed to appreciate the better ground when winning a Cork maiden hurdle 25-days ago. Open to more progress but needs to find plenty of improvement to beat her stablemates.

Bigbadandbeautiful, a useful bumper performer last season also won on the flat last summer, returned from an eight-month absence to win on her hurdle debut at Navan last month. Her jumping was novicey at times but it didn’t stop her from winning very easily. Scope for plenty of improvement in the sphere and with a better round of jumping could take this.

Cheers

John

Hi all,

Colreevy’s win in the Champion Novice Chase meant a small profit on the day. Onto day two of the Punchestown Festival.

Like yesterday, I have had a quick look at the three Grade 1 races but it’s the two handicaps that provide most today’s selections.

Punchestown Festival – Day 2

3:40 – Adare Manor Opportunity Series Final Handicap Hurdle – 2m 4 ½ f

Guiri is 0-5 since joining Jessica Harrington but put in a career best effort when 4^th of 20 at Leopardstown over Christmas. Today’s better ground should the 6-yer-old travelled last time like he’s on a winnable mark and of the best Conditional jockey’s Simon Torrens has been booked for the ride.

Trainer Dermot McLoughlin saddled the winner of this race in 2016 and he’s got a lively contender in The Great White. The 7-year-old got off the mark at the at the 8^th attempt over hurdles when comfortably winning at Limerick 9-days ago. That was a much-improved effort and although he’s been raised 11lb for that success he remains on a competitive mark.

1pt win – Guiri – 8/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook

1pt win – The Great White – 17/2 @ Paddy Power

5:20 – Irish Mirror Novice Hurdle (Grade 1) – 3m

Galopin Des Champs looked a Grade 1 novice hurdler when winning the Martin Pipe Handicap at the Cheltenham Festival.  He should stay 3m and has a big chance. He faces a big opponent in Vanillier who won the Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle at Cheltenham. There is nothing between the pair on official ratings but whether Vanillier has the pace to deal Galopin Des Champs I’m not so sure.

5:55 – Ladbrokes Punchestown Gold Cup (Grade 1) – 3m ½ f

Al Boum Photo third in the Gold Cup heads the betting. The 9-year-old finished runner-up to stablemate Kemboy in this race in 2019. Kemboy is 2-3 at Punchestown but was well behind his stablemate at Cheltenham but that’s not his track. A winner of the Irish Gold Cup at Leopardstown two starts back. There shouldn’t be much between the Mullins horses over this C&D.

It’s not a two-horse race though. Paul Nicholls brings Clan Des Obeaux over for the race.  The 9-year bounced back to form when comfortably winning the Grade 1 Betway Bowl at Aintree. Clearly the first time cheekpieces revitalised him but he was also the only one of the field to give his running that day. That said he goes well right-handed, likes the ground and distance and if the headgear continues to work, must have big chance.

Fakir D’oudairies also won a Grade 1 at Aintree. That success came over 2m 4f though and his stamina must be taken on trust. If he stays 3m, it will be on a sound surface but I think he will prove a better horse over shorter.

6:30 – Supporting Irish Store Sales Champion INH Flat Race (Grade 1) – 2m ½ f

A likely match between the one -two in the Cheltenham Champion bumper: Sir Gerhard and Kilcruit. The latter could reverse placings granted a better gallop than last time. Eric Bloodaxe is an interesting runner. He had looked a smart bumper horse last season winning his first two starts before finishing lame at Leopardstown 452-days ago.

7:00 – Guinness Handicap Chase (Grade A) – 2m 4f

Livelovelaugh is sure to be popular with punters after his win in the Topham, at Aintree, and given the form of the Willie Mullins yard. I just prefer his stablemate Royal Rendezvous. He’s 2-5 over fences and he put in a career best when 2^nd of 21 on his handicap chase debut in the Galway Plate last summer. First run since Galway but he’s gone well fresh in the past. Today’s 2m 4f could be on the short side for the 9-year-old and the Plate could be the target again but he’s got the class to go close.

Ten Ten comes into the race in solid form having finished runner-up over hurdles and occupying the same position in the Leinster National last month. Up 4lb but is a solid enough contender.

Embittered was sent off the 9/2 favourite for the Grand Annual at Cheltenham but came down at the 9^th. He took a heavy fall that day and provided his confidence hasn’t been dented shouldn’t be far away.  Interesting to see if the step up in trip can bring out more improvement in the 7-year-old.

Tiger Voice looked a novice chaser going places when winning on chase debut at Galway last September before falling two out when the most likely winner in a novice chase here a month later. Shaped with plenty of encouragement off a five-month break when 3^rd of 7 at Limerick on his handicap chase debut last month.  Open to more improvement and is the right end of the handicap.

Black Op, a Grade 1 winning hurdler back in 2018, has won just one of his nine starts over fences but has been highly tried, ran in the King George VI Chase & Gold Cup on his last two starts. The 10-year-old is interesting back in handicap chase company and British raiders have a good record in this race – 3 winners from 19 runners + 21 8 placed since 2013.

1pt win – Royal Rendezvous – 8/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

1pt win – Black Op – 9/1 @ Bet365

7:35 – Weatherbys General Stud Book Irish EBF Mares INH Flat Race (Grade 3) – 2m ½ f

Manisanda was set a stiff task for her racecourse debut at but wasn’t disgraced in finishing third behind two previous winners at Fairyhouse 25-days ago.  Clearly the mare is highly regarded as she’s been upped in class for her second start. Likely to improve plenty for her first start and has each way claims.

1pt win – Manisanda – 9/1 @ Bet365

Cheers

John

Hi all,

A veritable feast of action under both codes over the next five days. It all starts today with day one of the Punchestown Festival. It’s not only Punchestown though. It’s also Guineas weekend at Newmarket on Saturday and Sunday.

There are plenty of superstars in action over the next few days and we have some mouth-watering clashes to look forward to and two of them are today. Runaway Ryanair winner Allaho drops to 2m in the William Hill Champion Chase (5:25) and faces specialist two milers in stablemate Chacun Pour Soi and Nube Negra. Later, in the card Monkfish takes on Envoi Allen Champion Novice Chase (6:30).

I have had a look at the Grade 1’s although from a betting perspective I’m more drawn to the handicap races.  

Punchestown Festival – Day 1

3:40 – Have The Conversation Say Yes To Organ Donation Novice Handicap Hurdle – 2m ½ f

Not a race to get to heavily involved in. Fighting Fit has won two of his five starts over hurdles this season and wasn’t disgraced when 3^rd of 20 in a similar race at Fairyhouse last time.  He’s vulnerable to any unexposed horses in the field but should give his running, if as effective on drier ground.  

Light Brigade comes into the race on a hat trick after making a winner handicap debut at Naas last time. He’s been raised 9lb for that success but he’s only had four starts over hurdles and is open more improvement.

Clever Currency made all to win a Limerick maiden hurdle 12-days ago. In form and could do better going handicapping for the first time. Although won’t find it easy to dominate this field.

Ya Ya Baby beat Clever Currency last time out and has to be respected given that was only a third start over hurdles. Capable of better on her handicap debut but this is no easy task for a 4-year-old.

Hallowed Star is another open to plenty of improvement for going handicapping for the first time. After winning a Tipperary bumper last summer trainer ‘Shark’ Hanlon told the Racing Post, “I think this lad is very special. I’ll go as far as saying he’s the best I’ve had since Hidden Cyclone or any of them. If he’s right the 6-year-old would be thrown in off a mark of 112.

Great Bear is 0-7 over hurdles but he’s run some good races since going over the obstacles, including when 4^th of 20 in hot handicap hurdle at Fairyhouse 24-days ago. Today’s ground suits and the top-weight won’t be far away.

1pt win – Hallowed Star – 13/2 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook

1pt win – Great Bear – 11/1 @ Bet365

4:15 – eCOMM Merchant Solutions Champion Novice Hurdle (Grade 1) – 2m ½ f

A disappointing field of just five runners go to post for the first of the Grade 1 contests. It looks a match between the Willie Mullins pair of Echoes Of Rain & Blue Lord. The first named has won both her last two starts in Grade 2 company and is an improving novice hurdler. Blue Lord looked booked for second when falling at the last at in the Supreme at Cheltenham last time.

4:50 – Killashee Hotel Handicap Hurdle (Grade B) – 2m ½ f

Twenty-five are set to go post for this valuable handicap hurdle and plenty have a chance.

Magic Tricks put in a career best when 2^nd of 20 at Fairyhouse 24-days ago. That was the 5-year-old’s first start in handicap company and he looks sure to land a race like this before to long.

Back in third in the Fairyhouse race was Ruaille Buaille. At the revised weights there shouldn’t be much between the pair here. Although Magic Tricks could be open to more progress.

Jazzaway is having her first start since finishing runner-up to recent Pertemps Final winner Mrs Milner at Galway. Returns from a 272-day break here but her Galway effort came off a 200-day lay off so she can go well fresh.

Gentlemen De Mee was sent off the 4/1 favourite for the Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle at Cheltenham. He travelled powerfully out in front but those early exertions took their toll and he faded coming to the last.  The drop back to 2m should suit and he remains with potential.

Jesse Evans makes his handicap debut off what looks a workable mark. Both career wins have come on good ground. Trainer Noel Meade saddled the winner of this race in 2015.

Cayd Boy ran better than his 13^th of 25 in the County Hurdle suggests. That was the top-weight’s first run for 100-days and could well have just needed the run. Had been in good form coming into Cheltenham and totally be dismissed.

Arcadian Sunrise was another who ran better than his final position suggests at eighth here last suggests. He helped to strong pace that day but was still going well coming to the home turn before fading. The drop back to 2m is a positive and he’s on a competitive looking mark for his handicap debut.

1pt win – Ruaille Buaille – 11/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

1pt win – Magic Tricks – 13/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

5:25 – William Hill Champion Chase (Grade 1) – 2m

Seven are set to go post for the race of the day. Willie Mullins has the front two in the betting.

Allaho blew away his rivals putting in superb round of jumping to win the Ryanair. Looks worth a try back to 2m. The one to beat if he can he replicate his Ryanair Chase form against specialist two milers.

Chacun Pour Soi was a hot favourite to win the Champion Chase at Cheltenham but found less than expected coming up the hill and had to settle for third. A previous C&D winner this track suits him better than Cheltenham.

Nube Negra comes over from England and he’s worth his place in the line-up after taking second place off Chacun Pour Soi in the Champion Chase. He was finishing his race best of all that day and was a shade unlucky not to win.

First Flow was only sixth in the Champion Chase but he didn’t seem to handle the track at all. He’s better judged on his Grade 1 success in the Clarence House Chase at Ascot two starts back. Needs respecting back right-handed but his best form has come on more testing ground than likely today.

6:30 – Dooley Insurance Group Champion Novice Chase – 3m ½ f

Just four go to post and three are trained by Willie Mullins. However, they do include Monkfish & Envoi Allen.

Monkfish maintained his unbeaten record over fences when winning at Cheltenham. Stays well and could get the run of the race out in front.

Envoi Allen lost his unbeaten record when falling at the fourth in the Marsh Novices Chase at the Cheltenham Festival last time. First run beyond 2m 5f but he should stay 3m. Cheltenham aside he’s 3-3 with good in the going description.

Improving mare Colreevy made it 4-4 over fences when winning the new Mares Chase at Cheltenham. Getting the mares allowance brings her into the mix here. She’s 3-3 at Punchestown and provided the ground isn’t too quick I can see her running a big race.

1pt win – Colreevy – 7/1 @ Bet365

Cheers

John