Author: John Burke

Hi all,

Sandown’s Wednesday evening card had to be abandoned half way through the meeting due to biblical levels of rain. However, just down the road Goodwood missed most of the rain. That combined with a drying breeze meant the Goodwood going description was changed to good to soft from soft on Thursday morning. Mind you there is a storm coming in and there could be plenty of showers but given its showers who knows how much rain will fall in the Goodwood area.

The going on the jumps track at Galway remains on the good side and they are watering to maintain that description.  Not much rain is being forecast for the rest of the Galway Festival so the going shouldn’t really change too much between now and Sunday. Which is what we want to hear.

Back to the action on the track. It’s another full day of high-class racing at both Goodwood at Galway.

There’s no Group 1 race at Goodwood on Friday but there are two Group 2’s. The highlight being the King George Qatar Stakes (3:35).  The drying ground is good news for the connections Battaash who will be bid for a fifth successive win in this 5f sprint. He faces 12 rivals including Dragon Symbol who drops back to 5f after finishing runner-up in the July Cup last time. Art Power who was 4^th in the same race and Glass Slippers who was runner-up in last year’s race and is having her first run since winning the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint last autumn.

At Galway there are three big field National Hunt handicaps for punters to get stuck into and all three have over €44,000 on offer to the winner.

A disappointing day on Thursday with Sir Lucan going the closest at Goodwood. A bad day can knock your confidence but I fancy plenty today.

Qatar Goodwood Festival – Day 4

1:50 – Unibet 3 Boosts A Day Goodwood Handicap (Class 2) – 2m 4 ½ f

Just Hubert won this race 12 months ago.  He can race off 1lb lower this time around and Ray Dawson takes off a useful 3lb so must be respected if reproducing last season’s performance. Hasn’t really built on the promise of his seasonal reappearance third at Haydock though and was very disappointing on quick ground at Newmarket last time.

Smart Champion was 1 length behind Just Hubert in third 12 months ago and can race off 6lb lower here.  Saffie Osborne take off a handy 5lb.  The 6-year-old doesn’r win very often but stays all day and is the best handicapped horse in the race. Usually held up in his races he will need a decent pace to chase if he’s to win.

Withold put in his best performance of this season when a 4 ¾ length 3^rd of 12 at Newmarket 13-days ago. The 8-year-old is nicely treated on his best form from two season’s back and Osin Murphy stays in the saddle.  This sort of trip could suit him these days. Trainer Roger Charlton is 7 winners from 20 runners 35% in the past 14-days.

Rajinsky stay 2m well and found 1m 6f to short at Newmarket last time. He normally gives his running and deserves to land nice pot like this. Looks worth a try over this marathon trip.

Platform Nineteen made it 3 from 3 at Beverley 17-days ago. He remains unexposed as a stayer and could well improve further for a marathon trip. He did have a hard race on soft ground last time but if this doesn’t come to quick has to be one of the leading contenders.

Green Book is another unexposed stayer. He showed he has bottomless stamina when landing the 2m 2f Chester Plate in May. Put in a career best effort when an 8 ¼ length 5^th of 15 in the Queen Alexandra Stakes at Royal Ascot last time.

Elysian Flame a winner at Newbury in April. He was hampered at the start and thus badly placed in the Chester Plate on his next start. Showed that an extreme stamina test suited when a staying on 1 ½ length 3^rd of 19 in the Ascot Stakes (Handicap) at Royal Ascot. Nudged up another 2lb but granted a stamina test can go close.

Verdict: Plenty in with a chance. Withhold has plenty of back class and well treated if at his best. Just Hubert & Smart Champion were first & third last year. The latter is the best handicapped horse in the race but needs a good gallop t.  chase given his likely hold up tactics. Rajinsky wouldn’t be winning out of turn. Green Book looks a real stayer as does Elysian Flame and both have serious claims.

1pt each way – Green Book – 14/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes (Both paying 5 places 1/5 odds)

1pt win – Elysian Flame – 8/1 @ Bet365 & Paddy Power

2:25 – Bonhams Thoroughbred Stakes (Group 3) – 1m

Baaeed’s career record is now 3-3 after an easy win in a Newmarket Listed race 22-days ago. He looked a potential Group 1 horse that day and will be tough to beat he.

Rhythm Master’s best juvenile form came on soft ground and he showed last time that he’s well suited to easy ground when a 2 ¼ length 4^th of 18 in the Jersey Stakes at Royal Ascot last time. Worth a try over a mile but his chance likely depends on more rain arriving than is forecast.

3:00 – Unibet Golden Mile Handicap (Class 2) – 1m

The drying ground is a major positive to the chances of both Path Of Thunder and Maydanny.

Path Of Thunder came from behind to win at Newmarket (good to firm) 22-days ago and is well in under his 3lb penalty.

Maydanny won a 1m 2f handicap at the meeting last season. The 5-year-old bounced back from a poor run in the Hunt Cup to run Magical Morning ¾ length at Sandown 27—days ago. Granted he got the run of the race out in front that day but his jockey did put up 3lb overweight.  He’s a good handicapper when able to get out in front and has a handy draw in stall 5.

Magical Morning reopposes he has a 3lb penalty to carry for his Sandown win and now meets Maydanny on 6lb worse terms. Raced mainly on a sound surface but is out of a Pivotal mare so should be effective an easier surface.  

The talented but unreliable Acquitted was 1 ½ lengths back in third behind Magical Morning at Sandown. He’s entitled to get closer here but stall 13 could be better.

Rhoscolyn was a notable improver earlier in the season with a hat-trick of handicap wins at Beverley, here (7f) & Epsom in May/June.  Bounced back from a low-key run at Chester when a ¾ length 2^nd of 6 to Brunch in Pontefract Listed race 5-days ago. Now 12lb higher than for the last of his wins at Epsom but open to a bit more improvement at a mile and does go well on soft ground.

Stablemate Escobar goes well in strongly big field handicaps and finished third in this in 2019 and was a very unlucky 8^th in 2018. Ran as well as could expected in a steadily run Group 2 Lennox Stakes here on Tuesday. Needs all the cards to fall right but he won’t be inconvenienced if the rain does arrive to ease the ground again.

Besides Rhoscolyn & Escobar trainer David O’Meara also saddles Shelir. The 5-year-old has been knocking on the door in mile handicaps at Ayr on his last two starts. Has been dropped 1lb since his last run and has a good draw for a prominent racer in stall 1.

Johan was back to his best when winning at Salisbury. He showed a good battling attitude to hold of his rivals inside the final furlong. He been nudged up 4lb for that success but is effective on rain softened ground. Ryan Moore booked for the ride and the 4-year-old has nice draw in stall 2.

Verdict: Another handicap where you can make a case for plenty of the field.  Both Path Of Thunder & Maydanny need the rain to stay away but are on good marks if it does. David O’Meara has a strong hand of contenders with Rhoscolyn, Shelir and Escobar. William Haggas & Ryan Moore combined to win this in 2018 and have a live contender in Johan.

1pt win – Johan – 9/1 @ Bet365 & Paddy Power

1pt each way – Escobar – 16/1 @ Ladbrokes (Paying 5 places 1/5 odds)

3:35 – King George Qatar Stakes (Group 2) – 5f

The drying ground is very much a positive for Battaash. He’s well suited to this speedy track and although he may not be the horse he was, after training setback earlier this year, he’s still the one they all must beat.

Last year’s runner-up Glass Slippers makes her seasonal return here. The Kevin Ryan yard is among the winners but the mare doesn’t have a great record fresh and may need this.

Dragon Symbol won over 5f at Hamilton in May but his best form has come over 6f when first past the post in the Commonwealth Cup and runner-up in the July Cup. May find things happening to quick over a very fast 5f.

Art Power showed plenty of speed when third in the Group 1 Diamond Jubilee at Royal Ascot and when 4^th on the far side in the July Cup last time. Ease in the ground fine for the 4-year-old and the track should suit but stall 1 could be better.

Galway

5:00 – Guinness Galway Tribes Handicap Hurdle – 2m ½ f

Flying Scotsman improved for the reapplication of the cheekpieces when bolting up in Navan maiden hurdle 44-days ago. That was the 4-year-old’s first start for six months there’s a good chance he can improve again on his handicap debut. Won twice here at the festival 12 months ago and this has likely been the aim. Simon Torrens takes of a useful 3lb.

Run For Oscar didn’t get the best of runs when a 4 ¾ length 3^rd of 15 behind Winner Takes Itall at Bellewstown 27-days ago. He’s up 2lb in the rating’s but he travelled through the race like a well handicapped horse and can win races off his present mark.

Wouldn’t You Agree finished ½ length in front of Run For Oscar at Bellewstown. The mare wasn’t disgraced in Listed race here on Wednesday and will appreciate the return to handicap company here.

Excelcius put in a personal best when winning for the first time over hurdles (good) 15-days ago. The handicapper has raised him 13lb for that success but he’s only had six starts over hurdles and can continue to improve. Trainer Thomas Mullins saddled a hat-trick of winners of the race between 2017-19

Arcadian Sunrise may prefer softer ground but made it 3-7 over hurdles when showing a decent turn of foot to win a Punchestown handicap hurdle at the end of May. That was just the 7-year-old’ second start in handicap company and although he’s been raised 12lb for his last win could progress again. Ran well when third on the flat at the Curragh last month.

Verdict: Flying Scotsmen won twice on the flat here last year and is a young hurdler hurdler going the right way. Last time out Killarney winner Excelcius must be respected given his trainers record in the race. Preference though is for Run For Oscar.

1pt win – Run For Oscar – 7/1 @ Bet365

5:30 – Guinness Handicap Hurdle (Grade B) – 2m 7f

Willie Mullins has strong hand of contenders in this valuable handicap hurdle

Jazzaway was a ½ length 2^nd of 16 behind Cheltenham Festival Pertemps Series Final winner Mrs Milner here 12 months ago over an extended 2m. Was off for nine months before winning 2m handicap hurdle at the Punchestown Festival. The mare hasn’t been the easiest to keep sound as this will only be her third run since January 2020. She’s stays 2m 3f but stamina for 2m 7f must be taken on trust

Stablemate Stratum won the Ascot Stakes at Royal Ascot last month and looks on a good mark for his return to hurdles.  The choice of stable jockey Paul Townend.

My Sister Sarah finished runner-up in this 12 months ago, having previously run in the amateur riders race earlier in the week. The mare finished 6^th in that race on Monday and bids to go one better than last year. The stronger the pace the better her chance.

Another interesting runner from the Willie Mullins yard is French Made. A useful juvenile hurdler three seasons winning twice, including a Grade 2 hurdle at Fairyhouse in April 2019. The mare has been off the track for a 782-days but would be interesting off this mark if she has retained her old ability.

Lynwood Gold a useful staying flat handicapper. He got left at the start in the amateur rider’s handicap here on Monday but still managed to finish 5^th of 19. Ran like something was amiss when pulling up on his last start over hurdles at the Punchestown Festival. Prior to that had finished a 2 ¼ length 3^rd of 12 at Fairyhouse in April.

Visionarian put in a career best effort on RPR’s when winning a Down Royal handicap hurdle 42-days ago. Up 7lb for that win demands more improvement from the 6-year-old but the step up to 2m 7f could bring out more progress in the him.

Place Des Vosges was 7 ¼ lengths in 4^th behind Visionarian at Down Royal. Prior to that she had shown she stayed 3m when winning a Listowel handicap hurdle. The drop back to an extended 2m 4f probably didn’t suit the mare and she will be suited by the return to further.

Verdict: Had to look beyond the Mullins runners. Stratum has the class to win this but hasn’t always convinced with his hurdling. If Jazzaway’s stamina holds out she can go close. No stamina issues with last year’s runner up My Sister Sarah. Visionarian need to improve again to overcome a 7lb rise in the ratings but today’s longer trip could enable him to do so.

1pt win – My Sister Sarah – 8/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

1pt win – Visionarian – 10/1 @ Bet365

7:10 – Guinness Galway Blazers Handicap Chase – 2m 6 ½ f

Sapphire Lady made 2 wins from 3 runs since going chasing when easily beating four rivals in a Mares Chase at Punchestown 62-days ago.  She jumped well last time and looks on a competitive mark for her handicap debut.

Everlastingpromise came up against an improver on his bid to win Killarney handicap chase for the second year running 14-days ago.  Gets the first-time tongue tie for his first run beyond 2m 5f. Should go close if his stamina lasts out.

Popong was in the process of running a big race when falling at the last at Leopardstown over Christmas. Ran even better when a 1 ¼ length 3^rd of 20 behind Brahma Bull at Punchestown Festival. Nicely treated if reproducing the best of last seasons efforts but she has run below par on her last two starts, including when a well beaten third behind one of today’s rivals Funky Dady at Tipperary 12-days ago.

Funky Dady is first reserve here. He’s been raised 9lb for that Tipperary success but he’s only had the four starts over the larger obstacles, winning two of them, and looks the sort to improve further with more experience.

Plan Of Attack stays 3m 2f as he showed when an excellent 4^th of 23 in the Kim Muir Handicap Chase at the 2020 Cheltenham Festival. He didn’t have the best of luck last season but was in the process of running well in the first-time blinkers when stumbling and falling three out in this year’s Kim Muir. Below that level of form when only 7^th in the Bet365 Gold Cup at Sandown when last seen in action. This trip looks on the short side for the 8-year-old but he’s not totally ruled out for a yard that won this in 2016 & 2017.

Dunvegan has won just one of his nine starts over fences but he’s threatens to win a decent pot over fences. A respectable 6^th of 26 in the Topham Handicap Chase at Aintree in April (sent off just 10/1). Before putting a career best effort when a 4 ¼ length 3^rd of 24 in valuable handicap chase at the Punchestown Festival (7/1 favourite). Staying on well at the finish over 2m 4f. He’s worth another try over this sort of distance but his best form so far has come over shorter.

Verdict: An intriguing renewal of the “Blazers”. There’s a decent pot in Dunvegan when all the cards fall right. Funky Dady is an improving handicap chaser who must be on the shortlist if he gets a run. Everlastingpromise won’t be far away. Sapphire Lady looks on a good mark for her handicap chase debut but does take on more experienced rivals.

1pt win Dunvegan – 6/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

1pt win – Funky Dady – 10/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

Cheers

John

Hi all,

It’s day three of the Goodwood Festival and there’s more racing at the Galway Festival.  The feature races of a seven-race card at Goodwood are the Group 1 Qatar Nassau Stakes (3:35) and the Group 2 Unibet Richmond Stakes (2:25).

Over at Galway. It’s more National Hunt action. The highlight of an eight-race card is Guinness Galway Hurdle Handicap (6:15) with €147,500 on offer to the winner.

I have had a look at the first four races at Goodwood.

Qatar Goodwood Festival – Day 2

1:50 – Unibet “15 To Go” Kincsem Handicap (Class 2) – 1m 2f

Aerion Power looked set to win at Doncaster but his jockey misjudged the winning post and had to settle for second. He’s clearly going the right way and is sure to be popular with punters but his best form has so far come on good to firm.

Ralph Beckett saddled a double here on Tuesday and so his Patient Dream must be respected. A winner at Epsom in April. The colt resumed winning ways on soft ground at Windsor last month. He’s been raised 3lb but Ray Dawson has been booked to take off 3lb so that negates the weight rise.

Mr Excellency comes into the race in great form having won his last two at Newmarket & Chepstow. Up 2lb for the last of those wins and but will face competition for the lead here.  Trainer Mark Johnston has saddled the winner of this race three times since 2013.

Johnston also saddles King Frankel who looked on a decent handicap mark when runner-up in the London Gold Cup and then occupying the same position in 1m 2f Class 2 handicap at Epsom on Derby Day. Ran just as well when a 3 ¾ length 4^th of 14 at Royal Ascot. You can draw a line through his run at Newmarket when he played up in the stalls and eventually finished a tailed off last.

Verdict: It wouldn’t be the first time a Mark Johnston horse has bounced back from a poor run so better run from King Frankel wouldn’t be a big shock. Preference though for the Ralph Beckett trained Patient Dream.

1pt win – Patient Dream – 5/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

2:25 – Unibet Richmond Stakes (Group 2) – 6f

Asymmetric improved again to run Lusail to head in the Group 2 July Stakes at Newmarket last time. That’s the best form on offer and the son of Showcasing won over C&D on his racecourse debut. The easier surface will likely also suit the colt.

Ebro River was 1 ½ lengths behind Asymmetric at Newmarket. His best form came when winning the Listed National Stakes on soft ground at Sandown. Others have more scope for improvement but he’s 2-2 on soft and the Hugo Palmer yard is in good form.

Perfect Power beat Go Bears Go in the Group 2 Norfolk Stakes at Royal Ascot last time. Both his career wins have come on good to firm so an easier surface is an unknown. The step up to 6f should suit and if he handles the ground sure to be in the mix.

Clive Cox has won the last two renewals of the race. He saddles Caturra who won the Listed Rose Bowl Stakes at Newbury 13-days ago.  Highly regarded by the trainer and a definite contender but not sure he wants soft ground.

3:00 – John Pearce Racing Gordon Stakes (Group 3) – 1m 4f

Wordsworth came from out of the pack to run Hurricane Lane to six lengths in the Group 1 Grand Prix de Paris at Longchamp. Prior to that he been running well finishing third in the Irish Derby and runner-up in the Queen’s Vase at Royal Ascot.

Stablemate Sir Lucan beat Wordsworth a neck in a Listed race at Navan when last seen in action 75-days ago.  His Navan success came over 1m 5f and he looked a St Leger type that day. Surely capable of the improvement needed to go close here and Frankie Dettori has been booked for the ride.

Third Realm beat Adayar in the Lingfield Derby Trial in May but was 11 ½ lengths behind that one in the Epsom Derby. He’s better than he was able to sure at Epsom and the soft ground suited him at Lingfield.

Youth Spirit impressed when winning the Chester Vase on soft ground in May. Before fading tamely into 8th in the Epsom Derby. Not raced since so maybe something was amiss and better run could be forthcoming here.

Ottoman Emperor comes into the race having won his last three starts. Steps up to 1m 4f for the first time and on the evidence of his previous runs he seems likely to improve for the new trip. First start on going worse than good but on pedigree should be fine on an easy surface. Need to improve again to win but he could well be capable of it.

Verdict: One of the trickiest races on the card, que an easy winner.  At the prices I’m happy to take a chance on Sir Lucan.

1pt win – Sir Lucan – 9/1 @ Bet365 & Paddy Power

Just the six fillies and mares are set to go to post for today’s feature race. However, you can make a case for four of them.

3:35 – Qatar Nassau Stakes (Group 1) – 1m 2f

Audarya was in great from in the second half of last season a Group 1 at Deauville last August. Before running Tarnawa to length in the Group 1 Prix de l’Opera at Longchamp and ending the season with a win in the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf at Keeneland. Looked as good as ever when running Love to ¾ length in the Prince Of Wales’s Stakes at Royal Ascot on her seasonal return. The one beat, if at her best

Lady Bowthorpe has returned to action in great form, winning a Group 2 at Newmarket on her seasonal reappearance. Before running Palace Pier to 1 ½ lengths in the Group 1 Lockinge Stakes at Newbury. An unlucky, 1 length 4^th of 13 in the Group 1 Falmouth Stakes last time. Has the ability to win a Group 1 against her own sex and will be suited by the likely easier ground. First start over 1m 2f but on pedigree she should stay.

The Aidan O’Brien pair look the pick of the classic generation. Joan Of Arc improved to run Empress Josephine to a short head in a heavy ground Irish 1,000 Guineas. She maintained that improvement when going onto win the Prix de Diane (French Oaks) last time. Needs to progress again but she’s going the right way. Empress Josephine ran well below her Irish 1,000 Guineas form when only 8^th of 11 in the Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot. Better than that form and at the Curragh she shaped like a step up to 1m 2f would bring out further improvement.

Verdict: Looking at the pace map. There isn’t any. This should play into the hands of the O’Brien pair rather than the likely held up Lady Bowthorpe.

Galway

6:15 – Guinness Galway Hurdle Handicap (Grade A) – 2m

Provided the ground doesn’t soften too much before post time I give Hannon a bigger chance than his odds suggest. The 6-year-old a good ground winner at Gowran Park last October put in a great effort when running Jessie Evans to ½ length at Killarney, the pair pulling nicely clear of the rest, last time. He get’s 4lb from the progressive winner and has good chance of reversing placing with that one today.

Winner Takes Itall a useful flat handicapper last season left behind his previous hurdle form when winning at Bellewstown 26-days ago. The handicapper has put him up 13lb for that success but the 6-year-old is on an upward curve and should go close.

Last season comfortable Irish Cesarewitch winner Cape Gentlemen showed he can also be very useful over hurdles when winning the Grade 2 Dovecote Novices’ Hurdle at Kempton in February. Didn’t find as much as expected on his handicap hurdle at Punchestown but it’s early days over hurdles for the 5-year-old. Sent off the well backed 5/2 favourite when 5^th of 19 back on the level in the Ascot Stakes at Royal Ascot last month. Kevin Brogan takes off a handy 5lb.

It really clicked for Belfast Banter over hurdles at the end of last season winning the County Hurdle at Cheltenham Festival. And then going to land to win a Grade 1 novices’ hurdle at Aintree. He’s up 6lb for that win but a big field strongly run handicap really suits the 6-year-old.

Zoffanien ran below market expectations on the flat here on Monday, never really getting involved from his wide draw. He was in good form when last seen over hurdles winning a Ballinrobe handicap before finishing 4^th in the Grade 1 four-year-old hurdle at Punchestown. Not easy for a 4-year-old though as that age group are 0-15, 3 placed since 2008.

Call My Lyreen a Grade 2 hurdle winner at Naas back in November, bounced back from two low key performances in graded company to finish a short head 2^nd of 24 on his handicap hurdle debut at the Punchestown Festival.  He was finishing his race of strongly that day suggesting he can be competitive here off just 5lb higher.

Ciel De Neige put in a career best effort when a ½ length 2^nd of 24 in a 2m 4f handicap hurdle at the Punchestown Festival.  Up 4lb, Interestingly the cheekpieces he’s worn on his last two starts are replaced by the blinkers for this drop back in distance. Has run well in valuable big field handicap hurdles in the past without winning but could get in to the money again.

Tudor City won this in 2019 off today’s mark and wasn’t disgraced off 8lb higher when 7^th in last year’s race which wasn’t really run to suit. Not disgraced on the flat when 3^rd of 19 two starts back.  He can never be ruled out around if the cards fall right.

Sole Pretender was 4 ½ lengths back in fifth in the 2019 renewal. The 7-year-old has returned from a 20-month absence in the form of his career winning at Cork and putting in a career best on RPR’s when winning the Grade 3 Grimes Hurdle at Tipperary 28-days ago. Hasn’t been put up in the weights for that win and connections claim 7lb off him.

Verdict: Plenty in with a chance in a typically competitive renewal of the Galway Hurdle. I have made some sort of case for half of the field: Call My Lyreen must be contender. Ciel De Neige is interesting in the first-time blinkers and could provide trainer Willie Mullins with a Galway Plate/Hurdle Double. Don’t rule out a big run from 2019 winner Tudor City. Winner Takes Itall is solid at the top of the market and Hannon looks overpriced.

1pt win – Winner Takes Itall – 8/1 @ Bet365

1pt each way – Hannon – 40/1 @ Bet365 (paying 5 places 1/5 0dds)

1pt win – Ciel De Niege – 11/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook

6:45 – Arthur Guinness Handicap Hurdle – 2m

Effectively a Galway Hurdle consolation race. Karawaan, the 2019 Irish Lincoln winner on the flat, is 0-6 over hurdles but put in a career best when a respectable 2^nd of 13 at Tipperary 28-days ago. On a workable handicap mark and gets the addition of the first-time blinkers.

Punters Poet put in an improved effort when winning a soft ground handicap hurdle at Roscommon under today’s jockey Paul Townend. Up 8lb here but seems to be going the right way and shouldn’t be far away.

Clonbury Bridge has been knocking on the door in handicap hurdles on his last two starts. Get’s the first time cheekpieces and if the headgear can eke out the required improvement, he’s on a competitive mark although he might need a good stamina test dropped back to 2m.

Good World a heavy ground winnerat Wexford two starts backran even better when beaten a short head 2^nd of 21 at Punchestown last time. He’s been raised 5lb for that performance but looks progressive. Second reserve and the 6-year-old is a contender if he gets into the race.

1pt win – Punters Poet – 5/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

1pt win –  Karawaan – 11/2 @ Bet365

7:45 – Guinness 0.0% Handicap Hurdle – 3m

Blackstair Rocco landed a big gamble when winning at Down Royal two starts back. The handicapper hiked him up a massive 22lb for that win but that didn’t stop the 6-year-old from improving again to finish a 2-length 2^nd of 14 at Tipperary 28-days ago. Up a further 7lb but Mike O’Connor who rode him to win a Down Royal takes off 7lb. Likely hard to beat if he stays 3m.

Quaker Island seems to be going the right way and won at the fourth attempt over hurdles at Wexford last time. Stays 3m and could progress further for the step into handicap company for the first time.

1pt win – Quaker Island – 8/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

Cheers

John

Good morning all,

A tricky day punting wise on Tuesday so it was nice to get away with a small profit on the day. It could have been better. I was close to putting up Migration as a 2pt selection and I almost put Kinross in alongside Happy Power in the Lennox Stakes. I was concerned about his wide draw but the non-runners meant it wasn’t as much of an issue as it could have been.  Besides Migration most of the profit came from successful each-way bets on Happy Power & Sunday Sovereign.

The dry spell of summer weather has ended in spectacular fashion. There were going changes at both Goodwood and Galway on Tuesday morning after heavy showers hit both tracks.

Goodwood changed its going description to heavy, soft in places. With a further 16mm of rain falling on the track on Tuesday morning. In addition to the 33mm that fell over the weekend.

Across the Irish Sea at Galway. It was a similar picture. The going description on the flat track was changed to soft and the jumps course to good to yielding after 15mm of rain fell overnight.

The going change at Goodwood is significant. It led to a fair number of non-runners on Tuesday, and we’ll likely see more on Wednesday.

The highlight of day 2 of Qatar Goodwood Festival is of course the Group 1 Qatar Sussex Stakes (3:35).  English 2,000 Guineas & St James Palace Stakes Winner Poetic Flare heads the ante post betting. However, the change to more testing conditions may not suit the 3-year-old who looked so impressive on fast ground at Royal Ascot.

After two day’s flat action at Galway there’s a change of code today. The National Hunt horses are centre stage with the feature race of an eight-race card being the Tote Galway Plate (6:15).

Qatar Goodwood Festival – Day 2

The action gets underway 1:50 and you can watch the first five races from Goodwood on ITV.

1:50 – Unibet “15 To Go” Handicap (Class 2) – 1m 4f

Siskany and Nagano finished 4^th & 6^th in the King George V Stakes (Handicap) at Royal Ascot last time. Both had troubled passages, in particular Nagano who has only had four career starts and is open to more improvement on just his second start in handicap company.

Kolisi handled soft ground well enough at Nottingham two starts back. Before running out a convincing winner of a Salisbury maiden (good to soft) last month. Handicap debut and he needs to progress again to defy an opening mark of 87. However, the step up to 1m 4f should bring out more improvement in the gelding.

One of the more exposed runners in the field is the Roger Charlton trained Pleasant Man. A winner on soft ground at Haydock last season. He seemed to have improved for the gelding operation when comfortably winning on his handicap debut at Salisbury (good to soft) two starts back.  Wasn’t well placed in a steadily run race at Ascot last time but ran on at the finish to take 4^th.

Three places and a length behind Pleasant Man at Ascot was Irish Legend. Third of 14 in 1m 2f handicap at Royal Ascot (soft) on his previous start. He was another not suited by the way the race was run and could bounce back on softer ground.

Verdict: Pleasant Man will be suited by the soft ground. Both Nagano and Kolisi are open to further improvement and at the prices I just prefer the claims of the latter.

1pt win – Kolisi -13/2 @ Bet365 & Paddy Power

1pt win – Pleasant Man – 15/2 @ Bet365 & Betfair Sportsbook

2:25 – Whispering Angel Oak Tree Stakes (Group 3) (Fillies & Mares) – 7f

Valeria Messalina was beaten a short head by One Master in the race last season and has likely been trained for the race again.  A reproduction of that performance would likely be good enough to see her go one place better today. However, the ground will be totally different to 12 months ago and her best form has come on a sounder surface.

Isabella Giles won the Group 3 Prestige Stakes over C&D on testing last season before going on to win the Group 2 Rockfel Stakes at Newmarket. The 3-year-old hasn’t really improved one her smart juvenile form but was a ¾ length 3^rd of 7 at Lingfield (soft) in Group 3 in May.

One place and a short head in front of Isabella Giles at Lingfield was Bounce The Blues.  She didn’t get the clearest of runs inside the final furlong that day and could have easily have won if she had. Effective on soft ground I can see the 4-year-old going well here.

Vadream ran well when a 2-length 3^rd of 18 in the Jersey Stakes at Royal Ascot (soft). Before finishing runner-up in a Group 3 at York last time.  The drop back to 6f didn’t bring out more improvement at York and a return to 7f should suit the lightly raced 3-year-old.

3:00 – Markel Molecomb Stakes (Group 3) – 5f

Like most of the 2-year-old races at the meeting I haven’t really looked at this race in any detail.   Tn testing ground will ask a few new questions of plenty of the 11 juveniles. I was impressed with Fearby who easily won a Listed race at Sandown (good to soft) 26-days ago. That’s the best form on offer and if he handles the track and stall 4 isn’t an inconvenience, he should win this.

3:35 – Qatar Sussex Stakes (Group 1) – 1m

Poetic Flare was so impressive when winning at Royal Ascot last time. However, the ground will be totally different today. That said the colt did finish a short head runner-up in the Irish 2,000 Guineas on soft to heavy two starts back.

Snow Lantern comes here instead of going for the Nassau Stakes over 1m 2f. The filly seemed to handle testing ground well enough when runner-up to Alcohol Free in the Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot. She settled much better and had Alcohol Free back in third when winning the Falmouth Stakes at Newmarket last time.

Alcohol Free got the run of the race at Newmarket and Snow Lantern is arguably open to more improvement but back on testing ground you couldn’t rule out her out. Trainer Andrew Balding won this race in 2017 with Here Comes When.

The sponsors have the Andre Fabre trained mare Duhail running for them. The ground should be fine for the 5-year-old who has each way claims. Not sure her French form is Group 1 level though.  Still, she must be respected given her powerful connections.

Century Dream goes very well on testing ground and he did win the Group 2 Celebration Stakes over C&D last August. Not totally discounted given the going. However, the 7-year-old does look a Group 2 rather than a genuine Group 1 horse.

5:20 – Magical Wish finished runner-up in this race 12 months ago, off 4lb higher and then was beaten just a head over C&D (soft) latter in the month.  Nicely handicapped if reproducing last season’s best C&D form.

1pt each way – Magical Wish – 12/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes (Both paying 5 places 1/5 odds)

Galway

6:15 – Tote Galway Plate (Handicap Chase) (Grade A) – 2m 6 ½ f

Royal Rendezvous was a ¾ length 2^nd of 21 in last season’s Galway Plate. Races off 7lb higher this time around but he’s only had six starts over fences and this has likely been the plan. Stablemate Koshari is a very useful handicap hurdler, rated 10lb higher over the smaller obstacles. Lightly raced in recent seasons this will be the 9-year-old’s first run over fences since finishing down the field in this race 4-years-ago.

The Shunter was one of the stories of the last jumps season. Winning valuable pots over hurdles and fences, including the Paddy Power Plate Handicap Chase at the Cheltenham Festival off 12lb lower. The 8-year-old may well have won a Grade 1 Novices Chase at Aintree, if he had jumped the final three fences with more fluency. Simon Torrens takes off a handy 3lb

Mitchouka needed every yard of the 2m 5½f when winning a handicap chase at the Dublin Racing Festival in March. Up 8lb for his last win but today’s extra furlong is a positive on that Leopardstown run. First run for 129-days but he’s won off a lay off in the past and has each way claims.

Previous C&D winner Battleoverdoyen has a touch of class. He didn’t really build on his Grade 2 win at Down Royal last autumn and disappointed on his next three starts in Graded company.  Step back in the right direction when third on his first venture into handicap company over an inadequate 2m at Punchestown in May. A solid jumper of a fence, he’s 2-2 over the distance, and has gone well after a break in the past.

Verdict: A typically competitive renewal of the Plate. Royal Rendezvous and The Shunter have obvious claims. For those looking for a swing at one at bigger odds both Battleoverdoyen & Mitchouka can be considered. Especially with some firms going 6 places.

1pt win – Royal Rendezvous – 9/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

1pt win – Battleoverdoyen – 20/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook

1pt win – Mitchouka – 25/1 @ Bet365 & Paddy Power

6:45 – Guiri improved for the return to 2m 4f and the fitting of the first time cheekpieces when winning a handicap hurdle at the Punchestown Festival 91-days ago. That success came off a 123-day lay off so fitness shouldn’t be an issue. He’s been raised 10lb for that win which means he needs to improve again but he looked a head of his mark last time. Good chance of the follow up if the ground doesn’t ease too much.

1pt win – Guiri – 7/1 @ Bet365

7:15 – Tiger Voice won abeginners’ chase over C&D (soft) last September. The 6-year-old returned to winning ways when winning a 2m handicap chase at Punchestown 60-days ago. He’s been raised 6lb for that success but has only had the six starts over the larger obstacles so could be capable of more progress.

Scheu Time was 3-lengths behind Tiger Voice in that beginners’ chase, before making a winning handicap chase debut over C&D. The 8-year-old returned from a 151-day break with a promising effort over hurdles when 4^th of 11 at Killarney 13-days ago. Should strip fitter today and given his course form has each way claims.

Grange Walk has had just the two starts over the larger obstacles but showed he was useful chaser in the making when winning a Limerick beginners chase over today’s distance 18-days ago. His jumping will be tested against some experienced chasers but it’s likely a mark of 116 is more than workable. First reserve but would be of interest should he get into the race.

1pt each way – Scheu Time – 20/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes (both paying 5 places 1/5 odds)

1pt win – Tiger Voice – 11/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

Good luck with your Wednesday bets.

John

Hi all,

The stalls open on the Qatar “Glorious” Goodwood Festival.  The ground has softened and it looks like it will be soft for day one. As for the rest of week.  Its looking mainly dry but passing showers are forecast for the rest of the week. However, the weather apps are sending mixed message as to when and how much rain they will produce.

The big Goodwood news on Monday was Richard Hannon aiming Snow Lantern at the Sussex Stakes rather than the Nassau Stakes and given the softening ground it looks a good move.

The day one headline act is Stradivarious as he bids for fifth successive win in the Al Shaqab Goodwood Cup (3:35). Although Stradivarius won on soft ground in the past the rain softened ground really brings Trueshan into the mix.   

It’s also day two of the Galway Festival with the feature race of an eight-race card being the COLM QUINN BMW Mile Handicap (Premier Handicap) (6:15).

ITV are covering the first five races on an eight-race card at Goodwood. Inside today’s preview I have looked at the five Goodwood races on ITV  and the big race at Galway.

Qatar Goodwood Festival – Day 1

1:50 – Unibet “You’re On” Chesterfield Cup Handicap (Class 2) – 1m 2f

I really fancied last year’s winner Maydanny here but I think the soft ground has gone against him. Stablemate Sky Defender was beaten 5 lengths 12 months ago but he does get 17lb from the winner and given he showed he handled soft ground when finishing runner-up at York last August he could be the best of the Mark Johnson horses.

Cockalorum has returned to action this season in fantastic form with his form figures 2112. The 6-year-old put in a career best effort on RPR’s when finishing a head 2^nd of 20 in the John Smiths Cup at York last time.  Did get the run of the race at in front that day which doesn’t seem likely today though.

Migration returned from 21 months off the track when a 1 ½ lengths 4^th of 12 at Salisbury (good to soft) 34-days ago. He was well backed before the race and finished his race strongly, doing best of those who came from off the pace. Given the market support he received last time it looks connections think they have a well handicapped horse on their hands. This will be the 5-year-old’s first run on soft ground but he seemed fine on good to soft at Salisbury.

Verdict: Migration will need luck in the run but can come fast and late to win this. Both Cockalorum and Sky Defender have each way claims.

1pt win – Migration – 4/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

2:25 – Unibet Vintage Stakes (Group 2) – 7f

Just the seven have been declared for this juvenile contest. On form it looks a match between the Group 2 winners Berkshire Shadow and Lusail.   The first named is unbeaten on both career starts and last time out won the Coventry Stakes. Lusail is improving with racing and last time out was a decisive winner of the July Stakes at Newmarket.  Both colts have shown their best form so far on good to firm ground though. That Lusail has already won over 7f just swings it for me but its not a race I have a strong view on.

3:00 – Unibet Lennox Stakes (Group 2) – 7f

I had last year’s winner Space Blues down as one of the best of the meeting but that was on good ground.

Escobar goes well here and he finished third in last year’s race. He has 2 ½ lengths to find with the winner on that form but his two best RPR’s have come on soft/Heavy so on rain softened ground could get closer to his old rival.

Happy Power had Escobar back in third when winning the Group 3 Supreme Stakes (good to soft) over C&D last August.  He showed a liking for soft ground when winning a Group 2 at Newmarket last autumn. Best form so far this season also came on soft ground when an excellent 2 ½ length 4^th of 12 in the Diamond Jubilee Stakes.  You can draw a line through his run over a mile at Ascot last time when he raced too free. This his trip and the rain has come at the right time.

Kinross bounced back from a couple of poor runs at Meydan when landing the Group 3 John Of Gaunt Stakes at Haydock last time.  The gelding operation he had after his stint in Meydan looks to have had the desired effect   A strongly run 7f looks ideal for the 4-year-oEscobarld and he looks worth his place in this Group 2 contest. Stall 13 isn’t great though.

Verdict: I’m going to take on Space Blues here. Kinross has a wide draw to overcome but can hold his own in Class 2 company. Escobar goes well and has each way claims. Happy Power will like the ground and has winning form over C&D. He looks each way value at the 16/1 available with Paddy Power.

Toro Strike was a neck behind Happy Power in the Supreme Stakes and goes well over C&D with his form figures being 312. A return to Goodwood is a positive but he has a poor run at Haydock behind Kinross in May to overcome and his best form has thus far come on a sound surface. 

1pt each way – Happy Power – 16/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook (both paying 4 places 1/5 odds)

3:35 – Al Shaqab Goodwood Cup Stakes (Group 1) – 2m

Stradivarius isn’t the horse he was. That said he remains the one to beat. Doesn’t he? Only 4^th in last month’s Gold Cup at Royal Ascot. He was a bit unlucky in the run that day but wouldn’t have been the winner even with a clear run but may well have finished third

One place in front of Stradivarius in the Gold Cup was Spanish Mission. A winner of last year’s Doncaster Cup and this season’s Yorkshire Cup at York in May. He was well beaten in the last year’s race but has been in much better form since. He should once again give his running but I think he would want the ground to dry out.

The softening ground has led plenty of support in the ante post market for Trueshan and I wouldn’t be totally surprised if he was sent off favourite.  He missed the Gold Cup due to quick ground but wasn’t disgraced under a huge weight in the Northumberland Plate last month. He was only sixth at Newcastle but on RPR’s it was still up there with his run when winning the Group 2 Long Distance Cup on Champions Day. If he handles the Goodwood undulations, I think he can prevent dethrone the champion.

4:10 – Back To Goodwood Handicap (Class 2) – 5f

King Of Stars has been running well in 5f handicaps this season on quick ground. The 4-year-old put in a career best effort when a neck 2^nd of 14 to Twilight Calls at Newmarket 18-days ago. Up 5lb and will have competition for the lead here. Improved form has come on quick ground but seemed to handles soft ground when trained in Ireland.

Jabbarockie is another speedy sort. The 8-year-old returned better than ever this season making all to win to Class 2 handicaps at Musselburgh & Chester in the spring. Was found to be lame when finishing last in the Group 2 Temple Stakes at Haydock 66-days ago. Now 4lb above his last winning mark but if he can bag the stand rail, he will be tough to pass. William Buick is back in the saddle, he won on the gelding last season and is 3 wins from 4 rides when riding for trainer Eric Alston. Best form has come on good ground but he can go well here.

No going concerns for Sunday Sovereign. Both his career wins have come with juice in the ground and he’s back on soft ground for the first time since running Pendleton to ¾ length at York in May. Has run poorly on both starts since his York effort though, albeit one was on the tapata and the other on good to firm at Ascot.

Verdict: Sunday Sovereign is back on soft ground. He’s not the most consistent of horses. He will either go close here or bomb out. King Of Stars is going the right way but would be of more interest on quicker ground. Jabbarockie will be hard to pass if he gets out in front.

1pt each way – Sunday Sovereign – 16/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes (both paying 5 places 1/5 odds)

1pt win – Jabbarockie – 9/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook

Galway

6:15 – COLM QUINN BMW Mile Handicap (Premier Handicap) – 1m ½ f

Quizical was only beaten ¾ length into third in this race in 2019 and was a close-up 5^th over 7f here 12 months ago. He got within 2 lengths of the winner that day and was a bit unlucky in the run. With a clearer passage he might well have gone onto win. Handicapped to go well but stall 19 tempers enthusiasm a bit.

Jessica Harrington saddles a trio of runners in Tauran Shaman, Njord & Free Solo. They all have claims and the first two named have good form at the track.

Stable jockey Shane Foley seems to have opted for Tauran Shaman. A previous C&D winner and was 4^th in this race 12 months ago.  He’s improved since and he maintained this seasons’ good form when a ¾ length 2^nd of 13 at Leopardstown 19-days ago. Should go well although soft ground would be a bit of an unknown.

Top-weight Njord was beaten just a nose in this race last year. He’s now 12lb higher but has been running well finishing runner-up in Group 3 & Group 2 company on his last two starts. It will be fine effort to win this under 10-5 but Scott McCullagh does take off a handy 5lb and the easing ground is a positive for the 5-year-old who has a handy low draw.

Dermot Weld’s runners went well on day one and his representative Blue For You has to be respected. The gelding beat Wembley here on soft ground 12 months ago. Gelded in the spring, after an underwhelming seasonal return, the fitting of the first-time visor had a galvanizing effect on the 3-year-old that day and although he’s been raised 5lb for that win he’s lightly raced to think there could be more to come.

Verdict: Blue For You won here last year and is capable of better. Njord is a class act and although he’s got a big weight to carry must be respected.

1pt win – Blue For You – 10/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

1pt win – Njord – 13/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

Cheers

John

Hi all,

It’s the start of six days at the Galway Festival with Goodwood joining the party tomorrow. Goodwood had 30mm of rain yesterday turning the going from good to good to soft. There could be more showers at the Sussex track today. However, the forecast for the rest of the week is more promising with plenty of dry weather and just the odd shower.

Galway have been doing plenty of watering in anticipation of its big meeting of the year. The meeting will begin on good ground but more rain is forecast for the rest of the week so you can expect the ground to ease.

A busy six days begins with a few selections from Galway.

Galway

4:40 – Claytonhotelgalway.ie Handicap – 7f

Mother Country won a Naas mile maiden last time and looks on a workable mark for her handicap debut. She’s open to more improvement and has a handy draw in stall 4.

Li Mu Bai a winner at Fairyhouse last time is another open to more progress. He needed all the 7f to prevail last time so this stiffer track should suit.

Rock Etoile hasn’t been seen on the track since finishing a 2 ¾ length 2^nd of 16 to Visualisation at Gowran Park 109-days ago. The winner has improved to win again and finished runner-up in a valuable handicap at Royal Ascot. The drop back to 7f looks a positive and the gelding should go well despite stall 14.

Sir Sedric is better drawn in stall 5 and put in a career best on RPR’s when a 1 length 3^rd of 11 at Dundalk 14-days ago. He was finishing his race off strongly last time and if he can translate that improved form to turf has to have claims.

1pt win – Rock Etoile – 15/2 @ Bet365

1pt win – Sir Sedric – 12/1 @ Bet365

5:15 – Galwaybayhotel.com & Galmont.com Handicap – 7f

Just ½ length separated Royal Pippen & High Altitude when the pair finished 4^th and 5^th respectively in a mile handicap at Killarney 13-days ago. The former will have gone into plenty of trackers given he wasn’t ideally placed and made his effort out wide.  Seamie Hefferman takes over from a 10lb apprentice. High Altitude gets 2lb from his old rival here and Dylan Browne McMonagle also takes off a handy 3lb. There should be much between the pair again here.

1pt win – Royal Pippen – 7/1 @ Bet365

1pt each way – High Altitude – 14/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes (both paying 4 places 1/5 odds)

6:15 – Connacht Hotel (Q.R.) Handicap – 2m 1f

Run For Mary wasa ¼ length 2^nd of 20 to Princess Zoe in this race last year. The mare can race off the same mark this time around and must be high on the shortlist after making a winning seasonal return at Limerick last month. Gets the first time cheekpieces and if the headgear has the desired effect, she must have a decent chance of going one better. That said stall 21 won’t be easy to overcome.

Litterale Ci was a 2 ½ length 3^rd of 20 in the race in 2019. She doesn’t come into the race in much form but is 5lb lower than two years ago and get the addition of the first time cheekpieces.

Dermot Weld and Willie Mullins have won this six times between them since 2008. The former saddles the unexposed Colter who races in the reapplied visor and first-time tongue tie after a disappointing return to the flat at the Curragh (7/2) in May. He races off a mark of 83 here and remains open to improvement.  

Zoffanien a 143 rated juvenile hurdler is having his first start on the flat since leaving France. He finished 4th of 9 in the Grade 1 Juvenile Hurdle at the Punchestown Festival last time. If he can translate his hurdles improvement to the level, he would be a well handicapped horse. Stall 18 isn’t the best but he’s high on the shortlist.

Mullins saddles six of the twenty runners. Patrick Mullins opts for useful hurdler Hook Up that could be significant and she’s open to more progress on the flat

Exchange Rate won a maiden here at the 2017 festival and was only beaten 1 ½ lengths into second in the 2018 November Handicap at Naas. The 9-year-old returned from a 945-day break to finish 4^th of 9 to stablemate My Sister Sarah at Listowel 50-days ago. Entitled to come on for that run and is nicely handicapped on his best form. Jockey Jodie Townend won this in 2019 for the yard.

My Sister Sarah a 141 rated hurdler has been raised 10lb for her Listowel win but remains on a competitive mark compared to hurdles mark. A good stamina test will suit her and Jamie Codd is in the saddle.

Verdict: It’s hard to look beyond the Mullins contingent with My Sister Sarah just edging it for me. Zoffanien could be worth a saver despite his despite a wide draw.

1pt win – My Sister Sarah – 15/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

1pt win – Zoffanien – 8/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

6:45 – Eventus Handicap – 1m 4 ½ f

The Aidan O’Brien trained 3-year-old National Ballet improved for the step up to 1m 4f when making a winning handicap debut at Limerick. The handicapper has taken a dim view of that success by raising the colt 12lb but he’s only had four starts and likely capable of more improvement.

Top-weight Port Sunlight put in a career best when runner-up at Ballinrobe last month. Up 3lb but is another capable of better.

Razdan wasn’t the best away and in the circumstances did well to get within a head of the winner at Ballinrobe over an extended 1m 1 ½ f last week. Up 3lb but remain on a competitive mark. Up in trip here but if his stamina holds won’t be far away.

Earl Of Tyrone was set too much to do when a ½ length 2^nd of 6 at Killarney 12-days ago. The hood he wore last time is retained and although he remains a seven-race maiden isn’t out of this from stall 1.

1pt win – Port Sunlight – 6/1 @ Bet365 & Paddy Power

1pt win – Earl Of Tyrone – 6/1 @ Bet365 & Ladbrokes

Cheers

John

Hi all,

Its King George & Queen Elizabeth Qipco Stakes Day at Ascot and there should be a good-sized crowd. Not a capacity crowd but the Ascot management are suggesting there could be 14,000 spectators coming through the door. Meanwhile York is expecting a possible 30,000 crowd given they have a music night that follows the racing.  Whatever the final figure seems likely that York will play host to the biggest crowd at a UK racecourse since the 2020 Cheltenham Festival.

There are seven races on ITV this afternoon with the broadcaster showing the best of the action from Ascot & York.  I have had look at all seven of the ITV races.

Ascot

There could be as much as 10mm of rain at Ascot of course it is though Thundery showers so there could be more or less than that level of rain. Depending how much rain we get could decide the outcome of the four ITV races from the course.

1:50 – Princess Margaret Keeneland Stakes (Group 3) (Fillies) – 6f

Desert Dreamer was an unlucky second behind System at Newmarket two starts back and followed up that with an even better effort when runner-up in a Group 2 juvenile contest at the July Meeting. Those two have the best form coming into the race but there are plenty of unexposed fillies, such as Attagirl, Nazanin & Zain Claudette, who are open to further improvement. If the rain does arrive in time Nazanin who won on soft ground at Newbury on her sole start would be of interest.

2:25 – Porsche Handicap (Class 2) – 1m

Just the seven go to post for this but you can give them all a chance.

Fantastic Fox heads the betting. He went off too fast here at Royal Ascot last time and might not have liked the soft ground that day either. A winner at Hamilton two starts back. He must be respected on his 1 ¾ length 3^rd of 10 to Snow Lantern at Newbury on his seasonal return. Stablemate and top-weight Mystery Smiles was beaten less than 4 lengths into third in the Craven before being outclassed in the 2,000 Guineas. Not out of it here but De Sousa opts for Fantastic Fox.

Latest Generation was a much-improved ½ length 2^nd of 6 to Royal Fleet at Newmarket two weeks ago and must be respected.

Isla Kai completed the hat trick when winning over C&D (good to soft) last time. Best form has come with ease in the ground. He beat Guru a neck that day who gets a 1lb here. If the rain stays away Guru can reverse placings with the winner. If the rain does arrive Isla Kai can’t be disregarded.

Verdict: Guru can reverse placing with Isla Kai but significant rain would likely favour the latter.

1pt win – Guru – 5/1 @ Ladbrokes

3:00 – Moet & Chandon International Stakes (Heritage Handicap) – 7f

Motakhayyel won the Bunbury Cup under top-weight last time. A C&D winner at last season’s Royal meeting. The 5-year-old put in a Group 1 level performance on the figures to win the Bunbury Cup and will be hard to beat under his 3lb penalty.

Matthew Flinders looked suited by the drop back to 7f last time is on a competitive mark.  Has looked the sort to land a decent handicap like this.

Danyah who has run well on three starts this season in big field handicaps, including when 2^nd of 22 in a C&D handicap last time. Not sure about his low draw but should be competitive if its not an inconvenience.

Dance Fever won at Leicester last time and is back on track.

Star of Orion bounced back from a poor run here in the Britannia Handicap at Royal Ascot when winning over 7f at Newmarket (good to firm) 7-days ago. Has a 3lb penalty to carry for that success but Laura Pearson takes off a handy 5lb.

Cliffs Of Capri was a 1 ¼ length 2^nd of 19 in this 12 months ago and is 2lb lower this time around. He’s twice a previous C&D winner. He’s yet to trouble the judge on his three starts this season but shaped much better than he’s 5 ¾ length 7^th of 18 in the Bunbury Cup last time. Running at the finish he did best of those who raced far side.

Verdict: Motakhayyel remains well in under his 3lb penalty but wouldn’t want too much rain under his big weight. Both Matthew Flinders and the consistent Danyah are capable of going close and last year’s runner-up Cliffs Of Capri has each way claims again but is another who probably needs a sound surface.

1pt win – Danyah – 15/2 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook

1pt each way – Cliffs Of Capri – 18/1 @ Coral (paying 5 places 1/5 odds)

3:35 – King George VI And Queen Elizabeth Qipco Stakes (Group 1) – 1m 4f

The best race of the season so far. Five of the six runners have won a Group 1 and the only none Group 1 winner Lone Eagle almost won the Irish Derby on his last start.

Again, the weather will have a big impact on the race pans out.

Love heads the ante post betting with Paddy Power at 5/4. Last season’s 1,000 Guineas/ Oaks heroine is a deserved market leader. Good or quicker ground really suits the 4-year-old and the return to 1m 4f will suit after her win in the 1m 2f Group 1 Prince Of Wales’s Stakes at Royal Ascot on her seasonal return.

Mishriff was too keen in the Eclipse at Sandown last time. That was the 4-year-old’s first run since winning the Group 1 Sheema Classic at Meydan. That will hopefully have taken the freshness away and better ground, than at Sandown, should suit.

Wonderful Tonight probably needs the ground to ease to run but if it does, she will be a threat to all and I could see her winning this given her liking for the track – 2 wins from 2 runs.

Adayar claims are clear for all to see. A good winner of an above average Epsom Derby. Quick ground would be a bit of an unknown but apart from that he’s got a big chance.

Lone Eagle almost stole the Irish Derby from the front but was collared by Adayar’s stablemate Hurricane Lane in the final strides. That form is strong and he’s not of it.

Verdict: On quick ground Love will be tough to beat. Mishriff will be a tough opponent and is better than he was able to show in the Eclipse last time. Epsom Derby Winner Adayar remains capable of better. Should soft appear in the going description Wonderful Tonight and Lone Eagle are very much forces to be reckoned with. If you’re not on the 14/1 that was available on Wonderful Tonight in midweek, it’s probably a race to enjoy rather than bet in.

York

It looks like it will be mainly dry albeit cloudy at York so the ground should stay on the fast side of good.

2:05 – Sky Bet “Jump Jockeys’ Nunthorpe” Handicap (To Be Ridden By Professional Jump Jockeys) (Class 3) – 5f

I wasn’t going to bother with this race but then I saw my old “cliff horse” Eeh Bah Gum was running. The 6-year-old hasn’t won since 2018 but some of his best RPR’s were achieved in 2019, including when a ¾ length 4^th of 19 in the Epsom Dash. A former C&D winner and previously well suited to a sound surface he’s now 17lb below his last winning mark. Granted the foot injury he had last season means he’s not the horse he once was but he could pop up here and has each way claims in a novelty race.

1pt each way – Eeh Bah Gum – 14/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook (both paying 4 places 1/5 odds)

2:40 – Sky Bet Dash Handicap (Class 2) – 6f

Previous C&D winner Golden Apollo’s form figures in this race are 242. He was beaten ¾ length into second in this race 12 months ago, is 3lb lower this time around, and can meet winner Musika on 4lb better terms. The 7-year-old put in his best performance of the season when a ½ length 2^nd of 8 at Pontefract 18-days ago.

Mondammej has been in excellent form this season running well in big field handicaps over 5f/6f. Put in a career best effort on RPR’s when a ½ length 3^rd of 18 at Ascot (5f) last time. Keeps going up in the weights, without winning though and has been nudged up 3lb for his Ascot effort. Needs all the cards to fall right but can win a big one when they do.

Giogiobbo has won his last three all at Doncaster. The 8-year-old is up 4lb for the latter of those wins 28-days ago and is a much better race but looks on a good mark based on his form when trained in France.

Gulliver goes well here and you can forgive his last run in the valuable Scurry Handicap at the Curragh last Saturday when he blew the start. Might need a bit more juice in the ground to win this though.

Streamline is an interesting runner he’s only had two starts on the turf, last one came when third in a Listed race as a juvenile in 2019. He missed the whole of last season but returned in reasonable enough form and won a Class 2 handicap at Wolverhampton in March. The 4-year-old returned from a 91-day break when a promising 4^th of 14 at Newcastle, 1 length behind Mondammej and can meet that one on 5lb better terms here. Lightly raced and if the rain stays away shouldn’t be far away.

Verdict: Golden Apollo wouldn’t be winning this race out of turn. If the cards fall right Mondammej can win a race like this although he’s edging up in the weights after some consistent placed efforts. Streamline is lightly raced and unexposed on turf and can’t be ruled out.

1pt win – Golden Apollo – 15/2 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook

1pt win – Streamline – 10/1 @ Ladbrokes & Paddy Power

3:15 – Sky Bet York Stakes (Group 2) – 1m 2 ½ f

Just five go to post for York’s feature race. The market is headed by Mohaafeth who made it 4-4 in 2021 when winning the Group 3 Hampton Court Stakes at Royal Ascot last month. A win today and he will likely return to the venue for next month’s International Stakes.

His credentials for that race will be tested by the Aidan O’Brien trained 4-year-old Armory who finished a 1 ½ length third to stablemate Love in the Group 1 Prince Of Wales’s Stakes at Royal Ascot.

Juan Elcano showed the benefit of wind surgery when bouncing back to something like his best when successful in the Listed Wolferton Stakes at Royal Ascot. More improvement can’t be ruled out but like the other two mentioned he looks at his best on good or quicker ground.

Cheers

John

Hi all,

It’s been a quiet week on the selections front but with Goodwood and Galway on the horizon its best to keep the old powder dry for what is sure to be a busy week or so.

There’s plenty of racing around the UK & Ireland on Friday. Ascot & York provide the best of the action quality wise.

The forecast thunderstorms are on their way for the south on Saturday which could make things interesting for King George & Queen Elizabeth Day at Ascot. Thankfully looks like it will be dry on Friday.

I have two selections from Ascot, one from York and Cork.

Ascot

3:35 – John Guest Racing Handicap (Class 2) – 1m 4f

Alfred Boucher is on a losing run that goes back to August 2019 but you can’t fault his consistency. Has been in good form this season and finished a 1 ¼ length 2^nd of 11 at Windsor 27-days ago. Looks worth a try at 1m 4f and should be in the mix.

1pt win – Alfred Boucher – 7/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

4:10 – Rotary Club Of Ascot Handicap (Class 2) – 5f

Double C&D winner Tis Marvellous out in a near career best when a 1 ¼ length 4^th of 18 to Significantly here last time. Gets 4lb from that one today and can get even closer on quicker ground today.

2pts win – Tis Marvellous – 4/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

York

8:30 – Sky Bet Go-Racing-In-Yorkshire Summer Festival Handicap (Class 4) – 5 ½ f

David O’Meara saddles a couple of lively contenders in Noorban & Radrizzani. The latter put in a career best effort on turf when a ¾ length 2^nd of 8 at Haydock last Saturday. Can race off the same mark this evening and a useful apprentice takes off a further 5lb. Noorban has been in good form since winning over 5f at Ayr in May, Stays 6f and this intermediate trip could be ideal for the filly who looks interesting in the first time cheekpieces. If the first-time headgear has the desired effect, I can see her going close here.

1pt win – Noorban – 11/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

Cork

6:45 – Doneraile Handicap (Premier Handicap) – 5f

Jungle Jane was back to her best when a 2-length 3^rd of 17 at the Curragh two starts and the 5-year-old continued in fine form when a ½ length 2^nd of 10 at Bellewstown 22-days ago. The mare put in a career best effort on RPR’s last time and although she’s been put up 3lb she remains on a competitive looking mark.

1pt win – Jungle Jane – 11/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

Cheers

John

Hi all,

Couldn’t match Friday’s profit although Pink Eyed Pedro got the each-way money at 14/1 and it could have been an even better day but Hightimeyouwon found the winning post coming just too soon at the Curragh.  I have selections from the Curragh and Tipperary.

Curragh

2:10 – Romanised Minstrel Stakes (Group 2) – 7f

Order Of Australia takes a big drop in Class after running in the Group 1 Queen Anne Stakes at Royal Ascot last time. He also drops back to 7f here. Now like with Japan last week his class could see him home. However, I think he might be worth taking one here. The 3-year-old Ace Aussie remains capable of better and Current Option was a good second to Lancaster House over C&D in April. Has a poor run at Haydock in May to overcome but if back to his best here shouldn’t be far away.

1pt win – Current Option – 8/1 – Gen

3:20 – Irish Stallion Farms EBF Fillies Handicap – 1m

Emphatic Answer showed improved form to get off the mark switched to handicap company after 7 months absence when winning at Killarney (soft) back in May, showing a likeable attitude to win close to home. Slight concern that we haven’t seen the filly for 68-days but she did win on her seasonal return.  Quick ground is another unknown but if the daughter of No Nay Never handles it, she will be in the mix.

1pt win – Emphatic Answer – 13/2 @ Bet365 & Paddy Power

5:30 – Finlay Volvo Handicap – 5f

Arnhem, a winner at Dundalk last September, put in what looked a career best effort when a 2 ¾ lengths 5^th of 17 over C&D (good to firm) in the valuable Rockingham Handicap three weeks ago. That was a much deeper race than this and he shouldn’t be far away if stall 4 isn’t an inconvenience.

1pt win – Arnhem – 5/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

Tipperary

4:40 – Tipperary Town Plate Handicap Chase – 2m 3f

Bentham a useful enough novice hurdler hasn’t looked a natural on his four starts over larger obstacles but he did put in his best over fences on his handicap chase debut when a 9-length 4^th of 14 at Tramore last month. Likely found an extended 2m 6f to far last time and the drop back to 2m 3f looks a positive. At the right end of the handicap and off a mark he can be competitive off when his jumping holds up.

Flamingo’s Court is a useful enough handicap chaser on her day, as she showed when comfortably winning at Limerick (good) 8-days ago.  A 9lb rise in the weights wouldn’t have stopped her last time but she isn’t the most consistent of mares. If on another going day she won’t be far away.

1pt win – Bentham – 10/1 @ Bet365 or 9/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

1pt win – Flamingo’s Court – 8/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

Cheers

John

Hi all,

Friday’s Nap Commanche Falls went in for a profitable Friday.

After last Saturday’s “wall to wall” action its lesser fare this week. The big race of the weekend is the Juddmonte Irish Oaks (3:25). The race has attracted a disappointingly small and uncompetitive field. Epsom Oaks winner Snowfall is a long odds’ on for the race which underlines the view that this year’s middle distance fillies Snowfall apart are a poor bunch.

The Irish Oaks at the Curragh is part of an eight-race programme on ITV Racing which also includes the best of the action from Newbury & Market Rasen.

The Newbury card features the Group 3 bet365 Hackwood Stakes (3.00) and the Weatherbys Super Sprint Stakes (3.40).  The highlight of the Market Rasen card is the Betway Summer Plate Handicap Chase (2:40).

Newbury

1:50 – bet365 Stakes (Registered As The Steventon Stakes) (Listed Race) (Class 1) – 1m 2f

Real World quickened clear for his rivals to comfortably win the Royal Hunt Cup (1m) at Royal Ascot last time.  It was a performance, on his turf debut, that marked down the 4-year-old has capable of holding his own on Group company. Won at Chelmsford over 1m 2f last autumn so the step up in trip shouldn’t be a problem and his Ascot win came on good to firm.

Solid Stone is consistent enough in this grade although he might be better over slightly shorter.

Movin Time beat subsequent Queen’s Vase winner Kemari at Newmarket on his seasonal return. Only 5^th of 9 behind Mohaafeth in the Group 3 Hampton Court Stakes at Royal Ascot. Ran better than his final position suggests last time, those who ran close to the strong early pace were not favoured, and remains capable of better.

2:25 – Bahrain Turf Series Handicap (Class 2) – 2m

Zeeband won the Northumberland Vase last time. Up 8lb but effective on grass and is capable of improvement.  His claims are obvious.

Rodrigo Diaz a winner at Doncaster two starts back. Wasn’t well placed in slowly run race when a never nearer 1 ½ length 3^rd of 12 at Kempton last time. Stays 1m 6f and a good chance that he will stay 2m.

Just Hubert shaped nicely when 3^rd of 10 at Haydock on his seasonal reappearance. Needed a stronger pace when only 11^th in the Ascot Stakes on his next start and was never travelling in the Northumberland Plate. Tom Marquand 2 wins from 6 rides 4 places is back in the saddle. Gets the first time cheekpieces and if they go a good pace he can get into the money.

Withhold won this race in 2019, off 2lb higher. Has struggled on both starts this season. Nicely handicapped if he bounces back to form must have claims.  Osin Murphy is 8 winners from 30 rides 27% +6.71 1 5 placed 50% when riding for Roger Charlton.

Verdict: The claims of the improving Zeeband and Rodrigo Diaz are clear for all to see. However, preference at the prices for Just Hubert in the first-time headgear.

1pt each way – Just Hubert – 12/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes (both paying 4 places 1/5 odds)

3:00 – Hackwood Stakes (Group 3) – 6f

Tabdeed won this last year after finishing 2nd in the Chipchase Stakes at Newcastle. He goes the same route again, having finished 4^th in that race three weeks ago. Big chance returned to a sound surface on turf.

Diligent Harry finished one place and ¾ length in front of Tabdeed at Newcastle. First start on turf for the 3-year-old and if he handles the switch in surface is capable of being a Group class sprinter.  There doesn’t seem to be much in the way pace so he could also get an uncontested lead here.

King’s Lynn a winner of a Listed race at Haydock, hasn’t had the best of luck in the run on either start when 7^th in the King Stand Stakes and 3^rd in the Wokingham at Royal Ascot. Back in a smaller field should suit and he’s a strong contender.

Royal Commando looked set for a good season when winning a Listed race at Doncaster (good) on the first day of the new season. Down the field on softer ground in the Group 1 Diamond Jubilee Stakes last time. Not out of this if reproducing to his Doncaster form.

Happy Romance won the Super Sprint on this card last year. Finished her race off strongly when 3^rd of 10 in the Group 3 Coral Charge at Sandown over 5f last time. Returns to 6f and should go well again.

3:40 – Weatherbys Super Sprint Stakes (GBB Race) (Class 2) – 5f

Chipolte and Vintage Clarets’ form is head and shoulders above the rest of the field. The former Listed Windsor Castle Stakes at Royal Ascot last time and is well suited to quick ground. Meanwhile Vintage Clarets finished third in the Group 2 Coventry Stakes at Royal Ascot. The only negatives are they are drawn 20 & 22 respectively.  

Gubbass looked a useful prospect when winning at Leicester on his racecourse debut 99-days ago. He hasn’t been since that race but has likely been aimed at this race. Needs to have improved plenty to beat the market leaders but that is highly probable for this Gimcrack entry.

Trainer Johnny Portman won this in 2016 and he saddles the speedy Sienna Bonnie whose Bath win came on good to firm ground. Hollie Doyle has been booked for the filly and off just 8-1 has each way claims.

Verdict: Its hard to look beyond the claims of Chipolte after his quick ground success at Ascot last time. Gubbass is one of the lest experienced in the field but the Gimcrack entry is also open to the most progress on just his second career start.

Market Rasen

2:05 – Betway Summer Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race) (Class 2) 2m ½ f

Hang In There bounced back to his best when making all to beat four rivals at Stratford 6-days ago. Has a 7lb penalty to carry for that success but a 10lb conditional has been booked to negate the weight rise.

Hooper has won his last four and has been raised another 7lb for latter of those wins at Stratford last month and goes well on good ground.

Pagero put in a career best effort when 1 length 2^nd of 9 at Warwick 24-days ago. Very effective on a sound surface and looks on a competitive mark.

Besides Hang In There Emma Lavelle also saddles Voice Of Calm who ran out a comfortable of a Cartmel handicap hurdle last time. Has a 9lb rise in the weights to overcome but she could be progressive and will like the summer ground.

Dr Richard Newland won this in 2015 and saddles Wicked West who has won both his starts since joining the trainer. Handicap hurdle debut and could be capable of better.

Valentino Dancer won on just his second start since joining up Fergal O’Brien at Kelso 48-days ago. Like good ground and isn’t out of this off despite an 8lb rise in the weights.

Camprond has solid form in big field handicaps finishing a ½ length 2^nd of 22 at Aintree and 3^rd of 14 in the Swinton Hurdle at Haydock. Made all to win a novice hurdle over C&D last month. Looks to have a favourites chance and if his jumping holds up shouldn’t be far away.

Verdict: Wicked West and Hooper are both progressive hurdlers with a slight preference for the latter on his bid for a five timer.  Voice Of Calm is another handicap hurdler with more to give and must be high on the shortlist.

1pt win – Voice Of Calm – 12/1 @ Bet365 & Paddy Power

1pt win – Hooper – 13/2 @ Bet365 & Paddy Power

2:40 – Betway Summer Plate Handicap Chase (Grade 3) (GBB Race) – 2m 5 ½ f

Captain Tom Cat a useful handicap hurdler has really taken to chasing, winning all three starts over fences. Remains capable of better but won’t get his own way out in front here as there a few who like to go out in front.

Soloman Grey a useful handicap chaser at his best was just creeping into the race when unseating his jockey in the Summer Cup at Uttoxeter last time. Drop back in trip not an issue and he shouldn’t be far away with a clear round. Finhsed third in this race last year.

Pink Eyed Pedro runner-up in the Topham Chase at Aintree wasn’t disgraced when 4 ½ length 4^th of 18 behind one of today’s rivals Francky Du Berlais at Uttoxeter last time. Get’s 5lb from that one and has a decent chance of turning the tables here.

Exelerator Express hails from the inform Neil Mulholland yard. A winner at Haydock (soft) two starts back. The 7-year-old finished 1 ½ lengths behind Pink Eyed Pedro at Uttoxeter last time.

That’s A Given showed the benefit of wind surgery when bolting up at Newton Abbot 15-days ago. Up 9lb for that success but it was a career best effort from the 7-year-old and given the likely strong pace should get the race run to suit.

Darling Maltaix having his second run since a wind operation, looked as good as ever when returning from an 8-month absence to beat three rivals at Newton Abbot last month. Up 3lb in a deeper race but can go well for Paul Nicholls who saddled the winner of this in 2015.

Fire Away made it 4 wins from 5 starts over the larger obstacles since joining Laura Morgan when winning at Cartmel back in May. The 8-year-old showed he remains in good hear when winning over hurdles at Worcester 12-days ago. On a career high mark over fences but ran last time like his class ceiling might not have been reached.

Verdict: The most competitive handicap either side of the Irish Sea today. Pink Eyed Pedro wouldn’t be winning one of these out of turn. Captain Tom Cat has really taken to fences and if he handles today’s much bigger field has obvious claims. That’s A Given impressed when winning at Newton Abbot last time. We might not have seen the best of Fire Away yet.

1pt each way – Pink Eyed Pedro – 14/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes (both paying 4 places ¼ odds)

1pt win – Fire Away – 8/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

Curragh

4:00 – Paddy Power Scurry Handicap – 6 ½ f

Hightimeyouwon a winner over 7f at Cork two starts back he showed he remains in good form when a 2-length 4^th of 27 behind Ice Cold in Alex here last time. Get’s 6lb from that one today and and should go well.

1pt win – Hightimeyouwon – 11/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook

Cheers

John

Hi all,

The weekend starts here and there a few of interest today. One of today’s selections runs in this evenings Heineken UK Scottish Stewards’ Cup Handicap (7:30) at Hamilton and the other is from the big handicap chase at Killarney.

Hamilton

7:30 – Heineken UK Scottish Stewards’ Cup Handicap (Class 2) – 6f

Mr Wagyu has been in exceptional form already this season winning for of his eight starts. Just got touched off at York last Saturday off today’s mark.  Takes a two notch step the up in class today and that could find out the 6-year-old.

Commanche Falls has won two of his four starts in 2021.  He didn’t get the best of passages when a 3 ¼ length 4^th of 11, behind one of today’s rivals Rathbone, at Thirsk 16-days ago. He gets 4lb from Rathbone and has a good chance of finishing ahead of that one today.  Remains capable of a bit better and goes well on a sound surface.

Meraas won this race last year, off 2lb lower, before going on to finish 6^th of 27 in the Goodwood Stewards Cup. Likely needed the run after a 10 months absence at Haydock 13-days ago.  That was the 4-year-old’s first start since a gelding and wind operation. If the two procedures have worked then he’s on a competitive mark.

2pts win – Commanche Falls – 11/2 @ Bet365

1pt win – Meraas – 6/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

Killarney

4:00 – BoyleSports Handicap Chase (Grade B) – 2m 1f

Henry De Bromhead won this race in 2015 and saddles five of 11 declared runners. The best of his five are likely to be Raya Time who a Wexford beginners chase last time and Le Musigny who returned from a 7-month break with a good effort when 2^nd of 6 at Punchestown (soft) 48-days ago.  This is just his third start over the larger obstacles and second in handicap company, Travelled at Punchestown like he’s on winnable mark and if he handles today’s quicker ground won’t be far away.

Everlastingpromise looked a smart handicap chaser in the making when winning this race last year by an easy 13 lengths.  Shaped like the run was needed when running over hurdles at Downpatrick last month. Has 12lb more to carry this time around but that wouldn’t have stopped him 12 months ago. He should be spot on fitness wise and can make a bold bid to win this for the second successive year. Trainer Enda Bolger is 11-40 28% +6.82 with his runners here in the past five seasons.

1pt win – Everlastingpromise – 6/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

1pt win – Le Musigny – 9/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

Cheers

John