Author: John Burke

Hi all,

A better day on Saturday with two nice priced winners.  It’s Arc Day at Longchamp and the 100th running of Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe on Sunday. The world best horse race attracted a high-class field. The best middle-distance horses in Europe are set to run including two Derby winners. Add in two top class Japanese contenders and you can see why the race looks worthy of all the hype. The rain has arrived in Paris and is likely to be very soft on the day and could be heavy if more rain does arrive before post time.

You can watch four races from Longchamp on ITV. I’m keeping my stakes low today and have couple big priced selections in the Arc and a couple of other races on the card.

Longchamp

The draw can be important in the Arc and the race provides more than its fair share of hard luck stories. I’m not expecting anything different this time around. It looks a race to savour that’s for sure. 

3:05 – Qatar Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe – 1m 4f

Adayar is the best horse on ratings and should be the clear favourite. The Derby/King George winner comes into the race a relatively fresh horse as this will only be his fifth start of the season. He had a setback which meant he missed his prep race which is a slight concern.  Stablemate Hurricane Lane is triple Group 1 winner – Irish Derby, Grand Prix De Paris (C&D) and St Leger. Any ease in the ground will suit but I think he had a hard race at Doncaster.

Tarnawa is joint favourite with Adayar. The 5-year-old has been trained for the race and will be spot on for this after ¾ length second to St Mark’s Basilica in the Irish Champion Stakes last month. Return to 1m 4f is a big plus. Needs a career best to land this but she’s likely capable of it.

Snowfall, Oaks, Irish Oaks and Yorkshire Oaks heroine blotted her copy book when beaten in the Prix Vermeille. The slow pace was said not to have suited her that day. However, the Aidan O’Brien was under a bit of a cloud at the time so I wouldn’t be surprised to see her bounce back on Sunday.

There seems to be plenty of confidence behind Osin Murphy’s mount Chrono Genesis. The mare is a multiple Grade 1 winner in Japan and ran Mishriff to a neck in the Sheema Classic at Meydan on World Cup night. May be better on a quicker surface but she has won on soft in the past.

Deep Bond made all to win the Prix Foy over C&D last time. That performance stamped him as a high-class colt. However, he’s yet to race on going worse than yielding. If soft ground isn’t an inconvenience he could get in to the places at big odds.

Torquator Tasso, twice a Group 1 winner in Germany has a bit to find on ratings and was beaten by Alpinista two starts back. The soft ground has come at the right time for the colt. A strongly run 1m 4f should suit the colt and he’s another who get into the frame.

Raabihah finished 5^th in last year’s Arc and returned to winning ways when successful in a Group 2 at Deauville in August. There were doubts about her participation but it now looks likely she will come here rather than go for another race on Arc Weekend.  Another with place claims and if there is a home winner of the race it will be her.

Alenquer, trained by William Haggas, will take his place. The 3-year-old has some decent form that makes him a contender. He was doing his best work at the finish when 6 length 2^nd to Mishriff in the International Stakes at York last time. Prior to that he finished 7 lengths behind Hurricane Lane in the Grand Prix de Paris. Albeit he was poorly placed and set too much to do after an awkward start in that race. This is his trip; he goes well with cut in the ground and is another lively outsider.

Verdict: Adayar won on soft ground as juvenile so I think he will be fine on the ground. His training setback which meant he missed his prep race is a slight concern but I think he’s the most likely winner. At bigger odds both Raabihah and the German horse Torquator Tasso could repay each way support despite their high draws.

0.5pts each way – Raabihah – 28/1 @ Bet365 (paying 4 places 1/5 odds)

0.5pts each way – Torquator Tasso – 100/1 @ Bet365 (paying 4 places 1/5 odds)

1:15 – Qatar Prix Marcel Boussac – Criterium des Pouliches (Group 1) – 1m

Acer Alley won a Group 3 here over 7f last month and showed she handled heavy ground when winning at Saint-Cloud in the summer.  This is much better race than she’s run in but is open to more progress and can maybe surprise some better fancied rivals.

0.5pts win – Acer Alley – 12/1 @ Bet365

5:00 – Qatar Prix de la Foret (Group 1) – 7f

Kinross likes some juice in the ground and seems to be at his best after a break between his races. He wasn’t seen at his best when only 5^th in the Group 1 Prix Maurice de Gheest. Has plenty in his favour and looks set to go close.

Sagamiyra is also suited by cut in the ground she ran Mother Earth to head in the Group 1 Prix Rothschild at Deauville two starts back and then comfortably won a Group 3 over C&D three weeks ago.

Njord looks held by Kinross on their running at Haydock in May. However, he does go very well on soft/heavy ground and if he gets a strongly run race can get into the places.

1pt win – Kinross – 13/2 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook

0.5pts win – Njord – 16/1 @ Bet365

Cheers

John

Hi all,

The feature races of an interesting Ascot card are: The Group 3 Cumberland Lodge Stakes (2:40) and the Group 3 Bengough Stakes (3:15). Add in the likely big field Challenge Cup (Heritage Handicap) (3:50) and you have the makings of an interesting six race card.

The standout race quality wise this Saturday in Britain is the Group 1 Sun Chariot Stakes (2.55) at Newmarket. Meanwhile Redcar hosts its most valuable race of the year: The Listed William Hill Two-Year-Old Trophy (3:35) with £157,500 in guaranteed prize money and £89,318 on offer to the winner.

It’s the first day of Arc Weekend at Longchamp which culminates in a feast of Group 1 action on the Sunday with the highlight being Qatar Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe, Europe’s most important flat race. There are two Group 1 races on the Longchamp card but I’m giving the meeting a miss today.

The ITV cameras are covering the best of the action from Ascot, Newmarket & Redcar as part of an eight-race programme.

It could be a tricky day punting wise as plenty of rain is being forecast for the southern part of England. So, that is something to keep in mind.  The going at Ascot is good, good to soft in places  and at Newmarket good to soft, good in places at the time of writing on Friday afternoon.

I’m concentrating today’s preview at Ascot and Newmarket. Betting advice can be found at the end of the main piece.

Ascot

2:05 – Oakman Group Rous Stakes (Listed Race) (Class 1) – 5f

Hurricane Ivor followed up his Portland Handicap success with a win in a Group 3 at Newbury two weeks ago. Has a 5lb penalty to carry for that success but he could be a Group 1 sprinter nest season.

Tis Marvellous who won the Beverley Bullet two starts back was a length behind Hurricane Ivor at Newbury. He get’s 2lb from that one here and is three-time C&D winner but the winner is open to more improvement and can confirm that Newbury form.

Significantly was a further ½ length back in 4^th at Newbury. He wasn’t the best away that day and does get 2lb from Tis Marvellous and 4lb from Hurricane Ivor here. Twice a winner of C&D earlier in the season his chance would be enhanced with more cut in the ground.

Minzaal won the Gimcrack Stakes last season and finished 3^rd of 8 in the Group 1 Middle Park Stakes. First start for just over a year and may be better on good or quicker ground.

Dakota Gold hasn’t been at his best so far this season but this will likely be the first time he gets favoured easy surface.  He’s won this race for the last two years and should make a bold bid for the hat trick.

2:40 – ABF/BGC Cumberland Lodge Stakes (Group 3) (Class 1) – 1m 4f

Hukum was said to have made a respiratory noise when a neck 2^nd to Hamish in the September Stakes at Kempton last time.  A stronger run race will suit the 4-year-old and he won over C&D at Royal Ascot last season.

Alounak 3rd in the Ebor Handicap showed he remains in form when finishing runner-up in a Chester Listed race last time. Ease in the ground suits the 5-year-old but he may have trouble confirming that Chester form with the third Wells Farhh Go and 4th Alignak.

Wells Farhh Go was having his first start since May and was just ½ length behind Alounak. Alignak was a further 2 ½ lengths back but ran like the run was needed after 12 months off the track.

Quickthorn runner-up in the Ebor Handicap, had earlier in the season won the Duke Of Edinburgh Handicap over 1m 4f on soft ground at the Royal meeting. The 4-year-old looked to have no chance when blowing the start at Salisbury last time but still managed to run out a 2-length winner of a conditions race. Might be better over further in this company but must have a good chance if the rain arrives.

Title was well backed when making a winning handicap debut at Doncaster (good to soft) three weeks ago. That was a much-improved performance from the 3-year-old on his first start after a gelding operation. Looks worth another attempt in Group company (was a 4 length third behind Alenquer in the Group 2 King Edward Stakes over C&D in June) and isn’t out of this on the figures.

3:15 – John Guest Racing Bengough Stakes (Group 3) – 6f

Glen Shiel hasn’t been at his best on his last two starts in Group 1 company but the ground was to firm form him at Haydock last time. His best form on turf has come on soft ground. Won last season’s Champions Sprint over C&D (soft) and finished runner-up in the Group 1 Diamond Jubilee Stakes (soft) at Royal Ascot. Favourite’s chance here if the ground eases.

Great Ambassador beat all but the well handicapped Bielsa in the Ayr Gold Cup last time. He was clear of those who raced far side at Ayr and confirmed himself a progressive sprinter who could reach Group 1 level as 5-year-old. Not sure he would want the ground too soft though.

Bielsa could still make his mark in pattern company but will do well to confirm his Ayr Gold Cup form with the runner-up. That said the easier ground will be more to his liking than Great Ambassador.

Tabdeed finished 1 ½ lengths behind Great Ambassador in a York Listed race last time. He’s a consistent enough sprinter but hard to see why he should finish ahead of Great Ambassador or a back to form Glen Shiel here.

Of more interest would be Diligent Harry from the inform Clive Cox stable.  The 3-year-old had looked a useful sprinter on the all-weather earlier in the year and finished a 1 ¼ length 3^rd of 13 behind Chil Chil in a Group 3 at Newcastle in June. Battled on all the way to line when a neck 2nd on his turf debut in a Group 3 at Newbury (good to firm), a nose ahead of Tabdeed, 77-days ago. More rain would be questionable, as he was withdrawn from the Commonwealth Cup due to soft ground.

3:50 – Equine Productions “The Fall” Challenge Cup (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) – 7f

I would really fancy the chances of favourite Al Rufaa if he gets a strong pace to chase. A strongly run 7f looks ideal for the 4-year-old who shaped well when a ¾ length 2^nd of 9 at Sandown 22-days ago. Given the winner got an uncontested lead that day he did well to finish as close given the exaggerated waiting tactics used.

River Nymph won the Victoria Cup on soft ground over C&D in May and shaped nicely off 4 months, absence when 3¾ lengths 4th of 15 in a Listed race at Newbury 15-days ago. Now 4lb higher than his last win but can go close if the ground eases further.

Fresh won a 6f handicap here in May on his seasonal reappearance and finished a neck 2^nd in the Wokingham Handicap a month later.  First run at 7f for the 4-year-old but he goes well on good to soft ground and if he stays, he should be there or thereabouts on a track that suits.

Escobar is knocking on the door he’s not the easiest to win with but was a good 2^nd of 7 in a Listed race at Sandown last time.  Soft ground suits, as does Ascot’s straight track he won over a mile here and finished ¾ length 3^rd of 27 behind River Nymph in the Victoria Cup in May.

Ralph Beckett saddles a couple live contenders in Tomfre and Star Of Orion. Tomfre’s optimum conditions are soft/ heavy ground and 7f.  Likely needed the run after a 3 month lay off when 8^th of 15 at Newbury in a Listed race at Newbury 15-days ago (1 ¾ length behind River Nymph).  Star Of Orion was a short head 2^nd of 19 in the valuable International Handicap over C&D two starts back.  Struggled at York back over a mile last time but if you forgive that run, he’s got a chance.

Ascension won’t be inconvenienced by soft ground or the drop back to 7f.  A winner at Newbury (1m) on soft ground in May but was unsuited by quick ground here in the Hunt Cup and didn’t stay 1m 2f in the John Smith Cup at York on his last start in July.

Aldaary went into my tracker when a 5 ½ length 5^th of 28 in the Buckingham Palace Handicap over 7f at Royal Ascot (good to firm) and again when a 2 ¼ 5^th of 19 in the International Handicap over C&D the following month.  A winner over C&D in May (good to soft) he hasn’t had his preferred easy ground since the spring which he should get today. My suspicion is he has a race like this in him off his present mark.

Newmarket

1:45 – British EBF Premier Fillies’ Handicap (Class 2) – 1m 2f

Swoon has won her last two at Wolverhampton and Carlisle 46-days ago. Handicap debut off what looks a good mark of 86 for a filly who is open to plenty more improvement. It was quick ground at Carlisle but her dam won on soft ground so the easier ground shouldn’t inconvenience her.

Alpine Minstrel ran well after a 4-month layoff when 3^rd of 6 at Sandown last time. She goes well on soft ground and is on a fair mark based on her best form of last season.

Achelois just failed in her hat trick bid when a 1 length 3^rd of 12 at York last month. The easier surface will suit her better than at York.

State Occasion put in a career best when a 1 ¾ length 2^nd of 10 at Ascot last month. Up 1lb but remains on a competitive mark but has yet to race on ground worse than good to firm.

Ensemble finished ¾ length ahead of State Occasion at Lingfield and showed that she’s started in handicap company off a decent mark.

Talbeyah did best of the hold up horses when a 5 ¾ length 4^th of 12 in a Listed race at Yarmouth 17-days ago.

Evident Beauty made an encouraging handicap debut when a ¾ length 2^nd of 5 at Haydock (good to firm) last month. That was her first run over 1m 2f and she’s another open to more progress over 1m 2f. Yet to race on ground worse than good to firm.

Via Sistina won a soft ground Goodwood novice on her second career start but was predictably outclassed when stepped up to Group 2 company at Longchamp in July. Not totally dismissed on her handicap debut.

2:55 – Kingdom Of Bahrain Sun Chariot Stakes (Group 1) – 1m

No Alcohol Free who wasn’t declared but it still looks a decent renewal of the race. Aidan O’Brien brings over 1,000 Guineas winner Mother Earth who was an unlucky third in the Matron Stakes at Leopardstown.

The winner of the Matron Stakes No Speak Alexander is set to renew rivalry with the O’Brien filly here. Although Mother Earth was unlucky last time the winner is twice her odds here.

Champers Elysees finished a 2 ½ length 4^th of 12 in last year’s renewal. Arguably a little unlucky not to finish closer as she failed to get a run 2f out. Hasn’t been at her very best this year but didn’t get a clear run a furlong out when a 3 ¼ length 6^th in the Matron Stakes last month. Not as easy against some useful 3-year-old’s but still can’t be ruled and she is ground versatile.

Group 1 Falmouth Stakes winner Snow Lantern wasn’t quite at her best when 4^th to Baaeed in the Group 1 Prix Du Moulin earlier this month but should do better back against her own sex.

The one I like most is Saffron Beach. The 3-year-old was beaten a length by Mother Earth in the 1,000 Guineas. She didn’t build on that performance on two subsequent starts, failing to stay in the Oaks before running well below par in the Falmouth Stakes. However, she got firmly back on track when winning the Group 3 Atalanta Stakes at Sandown last time. Her form figures on the Rowley Mile are 1122. Granted she has a bit find on official ratings with the leading protagonists, However, the gap isn’t insurmountable on track that really suits her.

Betting Advice:

Ascot

2:05 – 1pt win – Dakota Gold – 5/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

3:50 – 1pt win – Fresh – 8/1 @ Bet365, 1pt win – Al Rufaa – 7/1 @ Bet365 and 1pt win – Aldaary – 7/1 @ Bet365

Newmarket

1:45 – 1pt win – Swoon – 7/1 @ Bet365

2:55 – 1pt win – Saffron Beach – 7/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook and 1pt each way Champers Elysees – 20/1 @ Ladbrokes (paying 4 places 1/5 odds).

Cheers

John

Hi all,

An interesting card at Ascot this afternoon with the three handicaps that close the card offering the best betting opportunities.

Ascot

3:40 – I think this 6f handicap is between the front two in the betting Liberated Lady & Bickerstaffe. Liberated Lady sole success came on the all-weather at Wolverhampton last November. She has been threatening to win again. Didn’t get the clearest of runs 1f out and again close to the line when a 1 ½ length 3^rd of 7 at Yarmouth 15-days ago.

Bickerstaffe won over C&D in July, off 5lb lower. He was then sent off 9/2 favourite for the Goodwood Stewards Cup consolation race which he wasn’t seen to best advantage. Shaped much better when a 4-length 6^th of 24 un the Ayr Silver Cup last time. Looks like we haven’t seen the best of the 3-year-old yet.

Verdict: Preference here for C&D winner Bickerstaffe at the expense of Liberated Lady.

1pt win – Bickerstaffe – 7/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

4:15 – Mark Johnston has saddled the winner of this 2m handicap three times since 2012. He relies on King’s Advice today. We haven’t seen the 7-year-old since he finished a 5 ¾ length 7^th of 15 at Musselburgh in April. He comes with risks attached and may want quicker ground but there is no doubting he’s a well handicapped horse on his form of two seasons back.

Future Investment keeps running consistently well in these sorts of handicaps but has gone up 6lb in the handicap for not winning this season. Well suited by a good stamina test, and some ease in the ground. The first time blinkers he wore last time at Doncaster are dispensed with and he’s tried in the first-time blinkers. Needs the new headgear to eke out that bit of improvement to win.

Royaume Uni won over the distance on the all-weather in February before running well in a couple of valuable handicap hurdles here and at Sandown in the spring. Won on soft ground when trained by Andre Fabre so any ease in the ground won’t inconvenience the 4-year-old. Likely connections are looking at this as prep for a hurdling campaign. However, he still looks on a fair mark on the flat.

Verdict: The temptingly handicapped King’s Advice looks overpriced if the ground doesn’t ease to much before post time. Royaume Uni remain capable of better on the flat and won’t mind easy ground.

1pt win – Royaume Uni – 9/2 @ Bet365

1pt win – King’s Advice – 12/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

4:50 – All eyes here on Kingman’s half brother Sunray Major who returned from a 453-day absence to make it 2-3 when comfortably winning a Chelmsford novice 15-days ago. Handicap debut off a mark of 95 looks very workable given he remains with the potential to be a Group horse.

Starshiba is the most consistent of horses but when he gets a strong gallop to chase, he can be competitive as he showed when a short head 2^nd of 11 at Goodwood in June. He’s now 4lb below that mark and provided the ground doesn’t ease to much looks set to run well given the forecast pace.

Top Secret got a good front running ride from Nicola Currie when making all to win a C&D handicap earlier this month. Up 2lb for his latest success but could be capable of better. Not likely to get an easy lead as last time but given his liking for the hat trick I can see him going close again.

Cliffs Of Capri can usually be relied to give his running over C&D although he did produce a rare poor effort behind Top Secret here last time. However, he must be respected on his 1 ¼ length 4^th of 19 behind Danyah in the valuable International Handicap here in July. A sound surface suit’s the 7-year-old although stall 1 could be better.

Woven has been very slowly away on his last two starts at Thirsk and in Ayr’s Silver Cup but has put in eyecatching performances in both races. Step back up to 7f but did win over the distance at Meydan in February 2020 when trained by David Simcock. The first time cheekpieces are applied and given his 6lb lower his last winning mark he’s handicapped to be competitive, if he can get off on level terms. Trainer Michael Dods is 6 winners from 24 runners +22.38 with his runners at Ascot in the last five years. 

Verdict: At a best priced 11/8 I must take on Sunray Major for all his undoubted potential. Top Secret is 2-2 over C&D and won’t be far away again. Each way claims for Woven who is handicapped to go well if the headgear has the desired effect but needs to avoid a slow start. Starshiba will enjoy the forecast strong pace and should get a good tow into the race.

1pt each way – Starshiba – 25/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes (both paying 4 places 1/5 odds)

Cheers

John

Hi all,

Hyanna continues to disappoint and looks one to avoid. I have a couple of selections from Salisbury and Warwick for you.

Salisbury

4:32 – Poet Of Life ran below market expectations on his handicap debut when 4^th of 11 at Sandown last month. Should be capable of better but looks worth taking on here.

Lord Protector won over C&D (soft) in May. Before likely not staying 1m 4f back here the following month. Wasn’t disgraced when 6^th of 10 in a better race than this at Newmarket in July. It was good to firm that day’s he probably better with some ease in the ground.

Majestic Dawn last year’s Cambridgeshire winner. Was pulled out of this year’s race on account of the quick ground but will like today’s surface more.

March Law has returned from a long absence with a couple of promising performances, including when a ½ length 2^nd of 5 at Kempton 8-days ago

Rebel Territory won at the 6^th attempt at Goodwood 61-days ago. He proved his stamina for 1m 1f that day on soft ground. He’s up 6lb for that win but he could be capable of better for a yard among the winners. The forecast strong pace should see him get the race run to suit.

2pts win – Rebel Territory – 9/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

Warwick

3:10 – The Dan Skelton trained Shentri looks sure to be popular with punters. He seems to be getting the hang of jumping fences and should win a race with the aid of his 4-year-old allowance.  The first time cheekpices are applied and they could bring out more improvement.

Preference though is for winning hunter chaser Creative Inerta. The 11-year-old built on the promise of his Cheltenham return in April when winning a hunter chase at Stratford the following month. He finished a close-up second that day but was awarded the race due to the winning jockey weighing in light. Handicap debut off what looks a workable mark and he should be suited by the step up to 2m 4f.

1pt win – Creative Inerta – 7/1 @ Bet365

Cheers

John

Hi all,

A disappointing return to the fray yesterday. Today’s sole selection is from Kempton.

Kempton

6:30 – The mare Hyanna has been seen to best advantage this season but she shaped with more promise when a 1 ½ length 2^nd of 5 here two starts back. Too keen last time at Salisbury. If William Buick can get her settled in today’s bigger field, she would have a good chance of returning to winning ways. Now 4lb below her last winning mark so she’s handicapped to go close. Trainer Eve Johnson Houghton has her horses in great form 6 winners from 15 runners 40% +32.57 in the past 14-days and her record when booking William Buick in 2021 is 9 winners from 20 runners 45% +15.82 14 placed 70%.

1pt win – Hyanna – 10/1 @ Bet365 or 17/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

Cheers

John

Hi all,

I have a couple of fancies today. One runs at Ayr and the other at Cork.

Ayr

1:35 – Blind Beggar finished a respectable 2½ lengths 4th of 12 at York’s Ebor Meeting. That was over 5f and he’s a better horse over 6f. He drops a couple of notches in class here and will be a popular choice.

At bigger odds it may pay to have Pivoting onside. The ground has eased to soft at Ayr and the 3-year-old’s sole career win came on soft ground at Pontefract last autumn. Far and away his best performance this season came at Chester on good to soft in the spring. He’s returned from a 3-month absence with a couple of low-key efforts, albeit the last one came on good to firm at Doncaster. He seems to me to be slowly coming back to fitness and comes into the race fresher than most.

1pt each way – Pivoting – 16/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes (both paying 4 places 1/5 odds)

Cork

4:35 – The lightly raced River Derwent looks sure to have his supporters after his 2^nd of 11 at Galway earlier this month. Handicap debut off what looks a workable mark if he handles today’s easier surface.

Baseman ran Moddy Poddle to ¾ length at the Galway Festival on his handicap debut but was disappointing behind that one at Killarney last time.

Coill Na Sionainne is handicapped up to her best but if she gets the forecast strong pace to chase could get into the places.

No More Porter is a useful handicapper at his best as he showed when beating 12 rivals at the Curragh last month. Has been raised 2lb for that success but Dylan Browne McMonagle takes off 3lb which negates his weight rise. Likes an easy surface and shouldn’t be far away.

Maud Gonne Spirit won a 7f handicap at the Galway Festival (good to soft) and has remained in form since. Did best of those held up when a 2 ¼ length 5^th of 8 at Listowel last week. The filly didn’t get the best of runs in the straight that day so her effort can be marked up slightly. Scott McCullagh takes off a useful 5lb which should bring her into the mix.

2pts win – No More Porter – 4/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

1pt win – Maud Gonne Spirit – 10/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

Cheers

John

Hi all,

The high-class class racing come thick and fast today. It’s the final day of the Cambridgeshire Meeting with the first leg of the “autumn double” at 3:35

The annual cavalry charge over 1m 1f with 35 runners looks as competitive as ever this year The John Gosden trained Uncle Bryn has headed the ante-post market since he returned to winning ways at Ascot last time. However, there was a shock for his backers on Thursday when it was announced that Frankie Dettori had opted for stablemate Magical Morning.  That news saw Uncle Bryn drift out in the betting whilst the odds Magical Morning contracted. It’s often a race that can provide a shock result and since 2011 three winners have been returned at odds of 40/1 & 50/1, including last year’s winner Majestic Dawn.

There are also two juvenile Group 1’son the Newmarket card the Juddmonte Middle Park Stakes (3.00) and the Juddmonte Cheveley Park Stakes (2.25). Prix Morny winner Perfect Power is a strong favourite for the former. In the fillies race the unbeaten Sacred Bridge comes up against Zain Claudette and Sandrine in what promises to be a cracker of a race.

The ITV cameras are covering four races from Newmarket and two races from Haydock on a six-race show.

Newmarket

1:50 – Juddmonte Royal Lodge Stakes (Group 2) – 1m

Masekela runner-up to Native Trail in the Group 2 Superlative Stakes went one place better when holding off subsequent Champagne Stakes winner Bayside Boy to win a Listed contest at Newbury last month. He’s the form pick on that form and should stay a mile.

Royal Patronage made all to win the Group 3 Acomb Stakes at York last month. The step up to a mile should suit the colt and he’s a big contender.

Coroebus made a winning racecourse debut on the July Course last month, The son of Dubawi stayed the mile strongly that day and there should be more to come from him.

2:25 – Juddmonte Cheveley Park Stakes (Group 1) (Fillies) – 6f

Sacred Bridge looks a worthy favourite after her win in Group 3 Round Table Stakes at the Curragh last month.  Granted the second & fourth have both been beaten since but she did run out a very easy winner that day showing a good turn of foot to win the race between the final two furlongs.  Trainer Ger Lyons did the Round Tower/Cheveley Park double with Lightening Pearl in 2011.

Zain Claudette made it 3-4 when winning the Group 2 Lowther Stakes at York last month. Her improvement has come on good to firm ground. Make no mistake she’s high-class juvenile and is probably slightly underestimated in the ante post betting at around 4/1.

Since 2012 four winners of the race had finished either first or second in the Lowther Stakes on their previous start. 

Sandrine was runner-up in the Lowther after winning her first three starts. She finished 1 length behind the winner but was giving Zain Claudette 3lb that day. The stiffer Newmarket 6f should suit her better than York’s and ease in the ground won’t inconvenience her either.

Flotus has looked a smart juvenile when winning on her racecourse debut at Goodwood in the spring but didn’t build on that promise on three subsequent starts in better company. Seemed to enjoy the drop-in class when comfortably making all in beating ten rivals in Ripon’s Champion Two-Year-Old Trophy. The time of the Ripon was good but this a tougher assignment for her.

I have to confess that I don’t know much about Have A Good Day’s overall French form but her 2 ¾ length 6^th of 14 against the boys in the Group 1 Prix Morny looks decent enough form.

Aidan O’Brien saddled the winner three times between 2016 & 2018. His possible runner Tenebrism hasn’t been seen since winning a Naas maiden on her debut in March. Clearly, she’s had a setback since that win as she was being talked about as Royal Ascot horse after that success. Looked a smart but winning this is a big ask on just her second career start.

Eve Lodge won the Group 3 Sirenia Stakes at Kempton early this month. The second and third have boasted the form nicely by finishing first and second in last Saturday’s Middle Park Stakes. She has been supplemented and could get into the money.

3:00 – Juddmonte Middle Park Stakes (Group 1) (Colts) – 6f

Perfect Power landed what looked a strong renewal of the Group 1 Prix Morny at Deauville last time with the Alan King trained Asymmetric back in third.

When I wrote my review of the juvenile colt’s picture last month. I said the Middle Park at Newmarket looked a good race for both Perfect Power & Asymmetric. The former was a best priced 8/1 with Paddy Power for the race at the time. Hopefully some of you got on as he now a best priced 7/4. Interestingly Christophe Soumillon who rode the colt at Deauville comes over to take the ride on Saturday.

Dr Zemph and Go Bears Go finished second & third in the Phoenix Park Stakes. Both should go well again. However, Dr Zemph is open to more improvement of the pair and the latter’s trainer has gone 38-days since he’s had a winner.

Perfect Power had finished 1 ¼ lengths behind Asymmetric in the Group 2 Richmond Stakes at Goodwood. I think there is another big run in the colt and the 7/1 with Ladbrokes & William Hill look perfectly fair.

3:40 – bet365 Cambridgeshire Handicap (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) – 1m 1f

Plenty in with a chance among the 35 runners. The four that I have honed in are Anmaat, Astro King, Lucander & Fastnet Crown.

Anmaat has won three of his five starts this season and showed a nice turn of foot to quicken up between the final two furlongs to win at Doncaster 17-days ago. He’s got just a 4lb penalty to carry for his Doncaster win and although takes a big step up in class he’s going the right way and likely hasn’t reached his class ceiling.

Lucander was runner-up in this race last year and is 3lb lower. The 4-year-old bounced back to form when 1 ¾ lengths 4^th of 13 at York last time. He goes well in these big field handicaps and is on a winnable mark.

Astro King finished a 4 ¾ length 2^nd of 30 to the smart Real World in the Royal Hunt Cup at Royal Ascot. He bounced back from a poor run in the John Smiths Cup at York, possibly found 1m 2f to far, when a 1 ¼ length 3^rd of 18 back at York last time. Was doing his vest work at the finish over a mile that day and a strongly tun 1m 1f could well prove ideal.

Fastnet Crown a winner over a mile last autumn has been running well over shorter this season, winning at the Curragh over 6f in June. Came from off the pace to finish a 3-length 3^rd of 27 in the Irish Cambridgeshire (1m) last month. Today’s fast pace will suit and he can out run his big odds if he stays today’s extra furlong.

Haydock

2:40 – Heed Your Hunch At Betway Handicap (Class 2) – 5f

Royal Crusade beat Glen Shiel in a Deauville Group 3 in July 2020 before running respectably in Meydan during the winter. Has yet to run to his best 3-year-old form so far this season. Showed plenty of pace out in front n Listed race at Newmarket last time before fading between the final two furlongs. Drops into handicap company for the first time in his career and races over the minimum trip for the first time too.

Quick ground and 5f are optimum conditions for Jawwaal. However, he might not get the strong pace to chase that is ideal.

Premier Power has so far performed better on the all-weather than turf but he wasn’t disgraced when a 3-length 9^th of 16 in the Portland Handicap last Saturday. The 4-year-old goes well on quick ground and the pace he showed last time suggests he’s worth a try over 5f.

Betting Advice:

Newmarket

2:25 – 2pts win – Zain Claudette – 11/2 @ Bet365

3:00 – 1pt win – Asymmetric – 8/1 @ Bet365 & Paddy Power

3:40 – 1pt win – Anmaat – 11/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes and 1pt win – Lucander – 16/1 @ Bet365 & Paddy Power and 1pt each way – Fastnet Crown – 40/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes (both paying 7 places 1/5 odds).

Haydock

2:40 – 1pt win – Royal Crusade – 10/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

Cheers

John

Hi all,

I’m away until Monday which means my normal in-depth previews will be missing this weekend. However, there will still be selections on Friday and Saturday.

The racing at Newmarket goes up a notch on the second day of the Cambridgeshire meeting with Group & Listed contests.

The feature is the Group 2 Joel Stakes (3.35), where 2,000 Guineas second Master Of The Seas returns from injury and will take on fellow Godolphin runner Benbatl.

The other Group 2 on the card is the Rockfel Stakes (3.00) for the juvenile fillies. Where Sweet Solera Winner Majestic Glory looks set to go off favourite.

The ITV cameras are covering four races from Newmarket and two races from York. Worcester and Haydock also stage afternoon fixtures, as well and it’s another day’s jumping action at the Listowel Festival.

Newcastle and Dundalk provide the evening racings, with the Group 3 Al Basti Equiworld Dubai Diamond Stakes (6.45) the feature at Dundalk.

I’m mostly concentrating on races with selections.  

Newmarket

The ground is drying quickly at Newmarket and the course will be doing some watering overnight to maintain the ground.

1:45 – Unibet 3 Uniboosts A Day EBF Rosemary Stakes (Listed Race) (Fillies & Mares) – 1m

Fooraat, twice a winner on the all-weather has yet to win on her five starts on the grass but has put in several excellent performances, including a career best when a head 3^rd of 7 in a York Listed race in July. That was over an extended 1m 2f but she’s equally effective over a mile and won’t be far away.  

Dubai Love is having her first run since finishing 4^th of 10 in Group 2 in Meydan in February. She’s had wind surgery since that run and looks a big contender, if ready to roll after an absence.

3:00 – Unibet Rockfel Stakes (Group 2) (Fillies) – 7f

Hello You has been consistent in some top fillies races this season and comes into the race with arguably the best form. However, the yard is struggling for winners coming into the race.

Majestic Glory has won her last starts, both on the July Course, including the Group 3 Sweet Solera Stakes last time. The runner-up Wild Beauty has since gone to win a Grade 1 at Woodbine (Canada) since the form is solid and she’s open to further improvement.

Jumbly has a bit to find with the two fillies just mentioned but there is a knocking that’s she won both career starts. Looked impressive when winning at Kempton three weeks ago and she’s capable of more progress. If she handles the track she shouldn’t be far away.

4:40 – Fireworks is sure to be popular on his handicap debut after his recent Beverley novice win. Trainer William Haggas’ record with last time out Beverley winners is 4 winners from 9 runners 44% +14 5 placed 56% which is another positive for the 3-year-old’s chance here.

Mashoor won a Nottingham novice on his seasonal reappearance before finishing runner-up under a 6lb penalty at Chelmsford the following month.  Hasn’t been seen to best effect on either start in handicap company since but the good to soft ground probably didn’t suit him last time at Sandown.   The drop back to 1m 1f could suit and he’s worth another chance.

York

2:05 – Cairn Island returned form a 2-month absence and a poor run at Chester to win at Newmarket 28-days ago. Looked in need of every yard of the 6f last time but he’s won over C&D as a juvenile, Up 3lb for his last win looks set for another big run.

Both Internationaldream’s career wins came last year and he looked in the handicapper’s grip this season.  However, his ½ length 3^rd of 12 over C&D, earlier this month, was a step back in the right direction. The first time cheekpieces seemed to do the trick that day and if the headgear continues to work, he shouldn’t be far away off the same mark here.

2:40 – La Rav is up in class here but the 7-year-old comes into the race in great form, winning over an extended 7f at Beverley two starts back before finishing 3^rd of 11 back at the same venue 3-days ago. He wasn’t best placed that day after an awkward start. Doing his best work at the finish that effort suggests a mark of 82 is workable.

Listowel

There are several competitive handicaps at Listowel this afternoon. The best of which is Ladbrokes Handicap Hurdle (2:10).

2:10 – Ladbrokes Handicap Hurdle (Grade B) – 2m

Top-weight Belfast Banter was a much-improved hurdler in the spring winning the County Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival and a Grade 1 Novice Hurdle at Aintree in April. Best to forgive his effort in the Galway Hurdle last time, made a bad mistake three out and his saddle slipped. Better expected here and provided he gets a strong pace to chase will be there or thereabouts.

Bua Boy put in a career best when ½ length 2^nd of 17 at the Galway Festival on his last start. Finishing nicely clear of the rest at the line he was only beaten by an improver in Arcadian Sunrise. A close-up third in this race last season he’s been raised 4lb for his Galway tun and looks set for another good run here.

Betting Advice:

Newmarket

1:45 – 1pt win – Dubai Love – 8/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook

4:40 – 1pt win – Mashoor – 8/1 @ Bet365

York

2:05 – 1pt win – Internationaldream – 14/1 @ Bet365

2:40 – 1pt win – La Rav – 12/1 @ Bet365

Listowel

2:10 – 1pt win – Bua Boy – 7/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes and 1pt win – Belfast Banter – 8/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

Cheers

John

Hi all,

The three-day Cambridgeshire meeting gets under way at Newmarket today with the feature race being the Group 3 Tattersalls Stakes (2.45). The Andre Fabre-trained Trident, runner-up in the Group 1 Prix Morny last time, heads the ante post betting and will be tough to beat.

There is also the Listed Jockey Club Rose Bowl (3.20) and some interesting handicaps on offer from flat racings HQ. Across the Irish Sea the Listowel Harvest festival, featuring a 1m4f premier handicap (4.00). Perth, Pontefract, and Wolverhampton complete the day’s action.

Yesterday’s Kerry National had plenty of thrills and spills and ultimately produced an easy winner in the Joseph O’Brien trained Assemble.

Fairyhill Run couldn’t get into the race and you must feel sympathy for connections of the mare. Not sure it’s fair that one owner can have seven runners in a race like this.

I ended up going with Born By The Sea & Aramax. The latter made a mistake at the first and was on the back foot from then onwards. However, Born By The Sea sneaked into 5th so the each way bet was landed at 16/1.

Newmarket

The going is good to soft, good in places at Newmarket for the start of the Cambridgeshire meeting. Sadly, the ITV cameras won’t be there today although they will be covering the Friday action.  I have had a quick look at a few of the Newmarket races starting with the feature race.

2:45 – Tattersalls Stakes (Registered As The Somerville Tattersall Stakes) (Group 3) – 7f

Prix Morny runner-up Trident is going to be tough to beat if improving for the step up to 7f. More progress does seem likely and trainer Andre Fabre thinks he could be a Dewhurst horse.

Modern Games made it 2-4 when winning a Class 2 nursery at Doncaster 15-days ago. He’s improved with each of his four starts. He needs to progress further to win this but that seems likely.

Cresta beat Modern Games on his race course debut at Leicester last month. He’s another capable of further improvement and could be the one to give the favourite the most to do.

Ribhi, a winner at Salisbury, showed his inexperience when making his effort 2f out in Listed company at Doncaster last time.  He also didn’t get the clearest of runs 1f out that day either. Remains capable of better and has each way claims.

1:35 – Federation Of Bloodstock Agents Nursery Handicap (Class 2) – 1m

Noisy Night has been well placed to win his last three starts all at Kempton. Up 5lb for the last of those wins but he’s going the right way and will be suited by the step up to a mile. If he handles the track is the one to beat.

Sed Maarib was no match for Modern Games when finishing runner-up to that one at Doncaster last time. He’s another who will be suited by the step up to a mile.

2:10 – British Stallion Studs EBF Premier Fillies’ Handicap (Class 2) – 6f

Quickstep Lady is inconsistent she disappointed at Salisbury last time after winning at Windsor two starts back. Capable of a good run if in the mood.

Zim Baby might not be suited by the drying ground, all her wins have come on an easy surface but she’s been given a chance by the handicapper. She ran one of today’s rivals Gale Force Maya to ¾ length when 3^rd of 6 at Pontefract 7-days ago and gets 3lb from that one here.

3:55 – Discover Newmarket Handicap (Class 2) – 1m 4f

Lostwithiel had looked set for a good season when finishing a ½ length 2^nd of 7 here over 1m 6f in May. However, he’s disappointed on both starts since though. Has been given a 76-day break and needs that to have freshened him up.

Torcello made it 2-3 over C&D, won this in 2017, when making all to win May. The 7-year-old is 4lb higher than for his last win and may prefer softer ground these days. Osin Murphy who is 2-3 on the gelding is back in the saddle for the first time since 2017. There doesn’t like there is much in the way of pace so it’s likely he can get the run of the race out in front.

Away from Newmarket I like three at Listowel.

Listowel

4:00 – Very Excellent hasn’t had many goes on turf but in a career best on RPR’s when a neck 2^nd of 15 at Galway 16-days ago. He gets 3lb from winner Church Mountain today and the first time cheekpieces are applied. The 3-year-old Church Mountain is going the right way and shouldn’t be far away again. However, at the prices I’m just with Very Excellent to reverse placings.

4:35 – Phoenix Cowboy an impressive winner at Gowran Park two starts back didn’t get the best of runs 2f out when bidding to follow up at Leopardstown last time. Was raised 9lb for his Gowran Park success but remains capable of better if as effective on easier ground.

5:40 – Petitioner seemed to bounce back to form for the fitting of the first-time tongue tie and the reapplication of the blinkers when a ¾ length 2^nd of 13 at Tipperary last month. That was just the 7-year-old’s second start since a stable switch and although he’s been nudged up 4lb for that performance shouldn’t be far away again.

Betting Advice:

Newmarket

2:45 – Cresta – 7/1 @ Bet365 & Paddy Power

3:55 – Torcello – 14/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

Listowel

4:00 – Very Excellent – 10/1 @ Bet365

4:35 – Phoenix Cowboy – 11/2 @ Bet365

5:40 – Petitioner – 14/1 @ Bet365

Cheers

John

Hi all,

It was nice to find you a well backed winner in Visualisation at Listowel yesterday. Sadly, the other selection Fil The Power ran an absolute ‘stinker’ and was never at the races.

It’s Kerry National Day and the biggest race of the Listowel Harvest Festival. I have a couple of selections running in the Kerry National.

Listowel

4:20 – Guinness Kerry National Handicap Chase (Grade A) – 3m

JP McManus silks will be worn by no less than seven runners. Of his seven the one I like most is the Gordon Elliott Aramax. The 5-year-old won the Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle at the 2020 Cheltenham Festival.  He’s only 1-7 since going chasing but he put in a career best over the larger obstacles when a 4 ¼ lengths 3^rd of 19 in the Galway Blazers Handicap Chase 54-days ago. He seemed to stay the extended 2m 6f at Galway. By no means certain to get the 3m but I fancy he will.

Born By The Sea made it 2-9 over fenceswhen winning the Galway Blazers two starts back. He was strong at the finish that day and looked an ideal type for this. Up 8lb and not sure to confirm form with Aramax.  No show over hurdles since but he’s a much better horse over fences and has each way claims.

Gordon Elliott also saddles Conflated who is 2-6 over fences. He’s got some classy form in Graded races. First start in a handicap chase for the 7-year-old and although he’s won over an extended 2m 4 ½ f over fences is another not guaranteed to stay 3m. Looks an ideal type for the race and had a spin on the flat 21-days ago so should be spot on fitness wise.

There seems to be a lot of confidence behind first reserve Fairyhill Run. The mare has won her last three over fences. Up 14lb for her last win at Kilbeggan she remains a competitive mark and her trainer is on the record as saying she’s Graded level chaser and will win this if she gets in. High praise indeed and if she sneaks in, must be high on the shortlist.

Verdict: A race where you could have two or three against the field. If Fairyhill Run gets in she’s one for the betting shortlist. Of the Elliot pair Conflated and Aramax the latter offer slightly better value  and Born By The Sea can get into the money.

1pt win – Fairyhill Run – 8/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook

1pt win – Aramax – 9/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

1pt each way – Born By The Sea – 16/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook (both paying 6 places 1/5 odds)

Cheers

John