Author: John Burke

Hi all,

There’s a decent card at Bangor this afternoon. The highlights being the Listed Mares’ Novices’ Chase (1:00) and three-mile handicap chase (1:30) which has attracted a good field of fourteen staying handicap chasers. The Tuesday action is completed by cards at Exeter, Dundalk and Kempton.

I have selections from Bangor and Kempton.

Bangor

1:30 – Weatherbys nhstallions.co.uk Handicap Chase (GBB Race) (Class 2) – 3m

My favourite type of a race a staying handicap chase and it’s an intriguing one. Plenty of these are making their seasonal returns and in Belami Des Pictons case back from 641-day layoff. The 10-year-old has only had four runs since November 2017 so its hard to know what ability remains but trainer Venetia Williams has saddled the winner of this three times since 2012.

On good to soft ground, you would think the likes of hte well fancied Snow Leopardess and Sam’s Adventure would need a stronger stamina test than 3m.

Bobo Mac goes well fresh but is another who may prefer softer ground than he’s going to get here.

Captain Tommy was a 3 ¾ length 2^nd of 13 in this race 12 months ago. He’s since switched yards and won on his stable debut Uttoxeter (3m) in May, off 3lb lower. Found 2m 5 ½ f at Market Rasen to short on his return from a 5-month absence last month. This is more his trip and he won’t mind the ground.

Sam’s Adventure’ stablemate Windsor Avenue was a decent novice chaser two seasons back. The 9-year-old failed to score last season but his 2 ½ 2^nd to Imperial Aura in last season’s Colin Parker at Carlisle and 4 ¼ lengths 3rd of 8 to Canelo in Rowland Meyrick Chase at Wetherby bring him firmly into the mix. His form figures returning from a 121+day layoff are 1212.

Canelo has the going and distance and his favour and hails form last year’s winning yard. He’s a contender but does have has to give 7lb to Windsor Avenue.

Falco Blitz did well on his first season over fences winning a Southwell novice handicap chase in February and bettering that form when a 4-length 2^nd of 8 to Belargus at Sandown in April. Yet to race beyond 2m 4 ½ f but could improve for today’s longer trip.

Beware The Bear is the best handicapped horse in the field. The 11-year-old won a handicap chase (3m 1f) at the 2019 Cheltenham Festival and later that year put in a career best effort when 2 ¼ length 4^th of 24 in the Ladbroke Trophy on his return that season. He finished 5^th in last year’s Ladbroke Trophy last season on his seasonal reappearance. Three subsequent runs last season were dire but that means he’s dropped down to a good mark. First start for a new yard today and if the stable switch has had the desired effect, then he’s a well handicapped horse.

Verdict: Captain Tommy has solid claims of going one better than last year. Falco Blitz is a contender if he stays 3m. Windsor Avenue is a tentative selection but I wouldn’t put any one off having a saver on the well handicapped Beware The Bear.

1pt win – Windsor Avenue – 12/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

1pt win – Captain Tommy – 13/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

0.5pts each way – Beware The Bear – 20/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes (both paying 4 places 1/5 odds)

3:00 – Hunter’s Call might be an 11-year-old but he showed last season that he could go well in races like this last season when a 1 ¾ length 3^rd of 11 at Aintree last December and a 3 ¾ lengths third of 20 in Lanzarote Hurdle at Kempton the following month. A strong traveller he doesn’t find as much off the bridle as seems likely but this first run since wind surgery and trainer Olly Murphy has his horses in good from.

1pt win – Hunter’s Call – 5/1 @ Bet365

Kempton

7:00 – I’m going to take on the front two in the betting Candleford and Noble Masquerade with Coltrane and Here And Now.

Candleford ran well when third on his all-weather debut over C&D last time but is short enough in the betting albeit looks to have a handicap in him off his present mark. Whilst Noble Masquerade has plenty of ability but doesn’t always put it all in.

Coltrane won the Melrose Handicap (1m 6f) last August and shaped like still in good form when 9^th of 34 in last season’s Cesarewitch, probably didn’t stay the 2m 2f that day. First start for 396-days and has been gelded but still has potential to resume his progressive ways.

Here And Now hasn’t been the easiest to keep sound and looked laboured on both starts on turf this autumn. However, he did make it 2-4 on the all-weather when running out a 2-length winner at Wolverhampton last October. Respected here if reproducing his Wolverhampton performance.

1pt win – Coltrane – 6/1 @ Bet365 & Paddy Power

1pt win – Here And Now – 9/1 @ Bet365

Cheers

John

A couple of winners on Saturday, including Farhan in the November Handicap, meant a decent enough weekend for the service.

Its a low-key start to the week but the quality does improve each day in the lead up to Cheltenham’s three-day November meeting which starts on Friday. There are jump cards this afternoon at Lingfield, Hereford, Huntingdon. Plus, a teatime all-weather fixture at Newcastle.

Tuesday best race is the Class 3 Michaelmas Handicap Hurdle (1:30) at Huntingdon. Sadly, the 2m contest has only attracted six runners.

Huntingdon

1:30 – Michaelmas Handicap Hurdle (Class 3) – 2m

Despite the small field it looks a competitive contest with three of the six declared runners are previous C&D winners. It’s those three that interest me most.

Takeit Easy showed he has returned to action in good form when winning a handicap hurdle Wetherby last month. Up just 2lb for that success and Jack Andrews takes off a handy 5lb which negates the weight rise. He goes well on a sound surface and looks to have a favourites chance.

Onemorefortheroad has also returned to action in winning form. Making it 3 wins from 6 runs over hurdles when winning at Stratford 12-days ago. The 6-year-old is only 1lb higher here and is aonther who goes well on quick ground.

Ajero a winner over C&D, off 1lb lower, in March. Off for seven months the 6-year-old shaped like he was need of the run when pulling up in a listed handicap hurdle won by Soaring Glory at Ascot 10-days ago. Takes a drop-in class here and he could easily bounce back to winning ways.

Verdict: There doesn’t seem to be much in the way of pace in the race. It seems likely that Cabot Cliffs will make the running with Ajero better positioned than Takeit Easy.  At the prices, I’m just going with Ajero but there’s not much between him at Takeit Easy.

Ajero – 5/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

Good luck with your Tuesday bets.

John

Hi all,

Its wall to wall racing on ITV this Saturday, The ITV cameras will cover ten races during the afternoon, four from Wincanton and three each from Aintree and Doncaster and on Saturday evening eyes will once again be on Del Mar with ITV broadcasting seven races live from the Breeders Cup on Saturday evening.

The serious business of the winter jumps season is now with us. The feature races of a seven race Wincanton card are the Grade 2 Unibet Elite Hurdle (3.35) and Badger Beer Handicap Chase (Listed Race) (3:00). Aintree’s Grand National fences are back in use in the 2m5f Betway Grand Sefton Handicap Chase (2.15). 

Doncaster finally brings an end to the 2021 British turf season. The highlight of a seven-race card, that gets underway at 11:50, is the Virgin Bet November Handicap (2:40).

As I said yesterday in the Breeders’ Cup email, I’m away this weekend and I have just concentrated on some of the races being shown live on ITV.  Saturday’s betting advice can be found at the end of the piece.

Aintree

2:15 – (Grand National) Betway Grand Sefton Handicap Chase (Class 2) – 2m 5f

You can tell we’re firmly in the winter jumps campaign now, as the National fences are in action for the first time since the big race in April.  The Grand Sefton is normally run at the December meeting but it’s moved to the November meeting which is a good thing.  I have four on my race shortlist.

Time To Get Up, is a fascinating contender. He really improved last season winning at Wincanton in February before winning the 4m 2f Midlands Grand National at Uttoxeter. The form of that race was boosted when the runner-up went onto win the Scottish Grand National. He’s only had seven career starts, four of them over fences, so is capable of more improvement this season. The 8-year-old is being aimed at the Grand National so gets a sight of the big fences. It’s not totally beyond the realms of possibility that he could even make up in to Gold Cup course. Not sure the drop back to 2m 5f will suit but if he’s to have any chance of going for a Gold Cup he would be going close here.

Experience of the National fences is usually a positive so Sir Jack Yeats must be on the shortlist. The 10-year-old was a 5 lengths 2nd of 18 in this race last year and ended the season with a 26 lengths 5^th of 26 in the Topham Chase here in April.  Same mark as 12 months ago and looks set to go well on his seasonal return

Jamie Snowden trained Hogan Heights to win this in 2019. He runs again, as does stablemate Thomas Macdonagh who looks the more interesting of the pair here. This sort of trip and soft ground look ideal conditions for the 8-year-old who looks on a workable mark off 130, if he takes to the National fences.

Spyglass Hill hasn’t really built on the promise of his Gowran Park beginners’ chase success in February 2020.  A reasonable effort form the front when 5th of 15 to Ontheropes in the 3m Munster National Handicap Chase at Limerick last time, would have finished closer but for making a tired mistake two out. His jumping can leave a little bit to be desired and it will be tested over these stiff fences but the drop back in trip looks a plus and he’s on a decent enough handicap mark.

Wincanton

The going is being described as good at Wincanton for Badger Beer Day and it’s set to be mainly dry up until race day.

2:25 – Richard Barber Memorial Mares’ Handicap Hurdle (Class 2) – 2m 5 ½ f

Kissesforkatie, a previous C&D winner, might well have won but for being squeezed for room two out when a 1 ¼ length 3^rd of 13 here last November on what turned out to be her final start of last season. Only 2lb higher and a 3lb conditional has been booked to negate the weight rise. Has gone well fresh in the past and is effective on a sound surface. Given her course record she must be high on the shortlist.

Emmpressive Lady took well to hurdling last season winning a mares novice at Exeter and mares handicap at Sandown before putting a career best effort stepped up to 3m for the first time when a 2 ½ length 2^nd of 8 to the smart recent Wetherby winner Mollys Ollys Wishes. The mare wasn’t seen to best effect dropped back to 2m 3f when only 7^th of 13 at Haydock in April but is better than that form. Could be capable of better this season but may need to return to 3m.

Wynn House won two novice hurdles at Bangor and Ludlow last autumn. Not sure how well handicapped she is but in Alan King’s Racing Post Stable Tour; the trainer thinks she’s better than a 122 rated horse. Her form figures first time up are 121 and she’s 3-5 on good ground so has plenty in her favour.

Rose Of Arcadia a bumper winner on her racecourse debut the maregot off the mark at the third attempt over hurdles when winning a C&D novice hurdle in February. Ran below expectations (16/5 fav) when a 10-length 5^th of 12 in the Mares’ Final at Newbury (good to soft) on her handicap debut last time. May need further than this on good ground, both wins under rules came on heavy ground.. However, she remains a good prospect, especially when going over fences which is the plan.

3:00 – 60th Badger Beer Handicap Chase (Listed Race) – 3m 1f

Looking at the race trends of the 177 horses who have competed in the race since 2008:

Horses returned 18/1 & bigger are 0 winners from 53 bets 4 placed;

Horses returned 9/1 & bigger on their last start are 1 winner from 71 bets 13 placed

Horses with an OR between 137 to 144 are 9 winners from 62 bets 16 placed (those 145+ are 0 winners from 25 bets 5 placed).

Interestingly horses returned 16/1 & under with 4-7 seasonal runs are 3 winners from 14 bets + 11.5 11 placed. If you had backed all such qualifiers each way you would have made a £37.38. So, watch for any ‘hard fit’ runners.

Last season’s 1^st, 2^nd and 5^th reoppose. El Presente got the better of Potterman by a short head 12 months ago and just ½ length separated the pair when they were 2^nd & 4^th in the Bet365 Gold Cup at the end of last season.  Both will like the sound surface and there shouldn’t be much between the pair again although both had the benefit of race fitness coming into last year’s race. Potterman is being aimed at the Ladbroke Trophy so may be better for the run and whilst El Presente has won fresh in the past the yards runners have tended to need the outing.

Some Chaos has a bit find on last year’s running with El Presente & Potterman but advertised his well-being for this with a good win in a Capveteran’s chase at Chepstow last month. He’s up 7lb in better race but the 10-year-old is a previous C&D winner and all six of his career wins have come on good ground

Cap Du Nord and Hurricane Harvey have both been popular in the ante post betting. Cap Du Nord comfortably landed a handicap chase at Newbury last November and continued to progress over fences in valuable handicap chases. Ended last season with a respectable 5 length 5^th of 16 in the Bet365 Gold Cup at Sandown in April. Ran well for a long way and was still in contention coming to two out, possibly didn’t see quite see out a stiff 3m 5f that day. Ran like the run was badly needed at Chepstow on his seasonal reappearance last month. Capable of winning a handicap chase off his present mark

Of the front two in the betting Hurricane Harvey just appeals a bit more.  The 7-year-old won two of his five starts of fences last season.  A second season chaser, he returned from a six-month absence and wind surgery to finish an encouraging 4^th of 9 over an inadequate 2m 3 ½ f at Chepstow last month. Won over 3m last season and remains with potential this season for the step up to 3m 1f.

Both Irish Prophecy & Storm Home come into the race after four starts this season (see above trends).

Storm Home won two handicap chases at Uttoxeter over the summer including the valuable Bet365 Summer Cup in June. He jumped well that day and showed he handles quick ground well. Up 12lb the 9-year-old returned from over two months off the track with a disappointing effort at Exeter last month. He fell at the last that day but was already well beaten when coming down.

Irish Prophecy hasn’t always been the most consistent of horses but was on a going day when winning here over 1 ½ f further 13-days ago. Put in a personal best that day, jumping and travelling as well as he’s ever done. The 8-year-old is up 7lb for his last success but won with plenty in hand.  Now twice a C&D winner if he reproduces his last time out performance won’t be far away at the finish.

Doncaster

The ground at Doncaster was described as soft on Thursday for the final meeting of the British flat season.

1:25 – Virgin Bet Handicap (Class 2) – 7f

Tomfre won twice over C&D last autumn, including this race off 1lb lower. The 4-year-old hasn’t eon this season but has put in several good performances including when a 2-length 2^nd of 10 at Leicester last time. The softer the ground the better his chance.

Fresh a very useful sprint handicapper, runner-up in the Wokingham Handicap at Royal Ascot. He seemed to stay 7f when 3^rd of 16 at Ascot two starts back. Put in anther good effort when a 3-length 3^rd of 10 here back over 6f last time and would have finished a bit closer but had to wait for run two out.

Boardman bounced back to form when a 2¼ lengths 5th of 21 in the 6f Coral Sprint Trophy at York last time. Was doing his best work at the finish that day and he should be suited to the return to 7f, ran up a hat trick of wins over the distance in May. Just 1lb higher than for the last of those wins at Chester.

Orbaan has only one success to his name since joining the David O’Meara yard but has put in plenty of good efforts since that win at York last summer. The handicapper has started to cut him some slack, now 6lb below his last winning mark, and he posted a good effort when a 1¼ length 2^nd of 13 over C&D 14-days ago. Might be better over a mile but provided he gets a strong pace to chase, shouldn’t be far away.

2:05 – Virgin Bet Wentworth Stakes (Listed Race) – 6f

Plenty of old favourite’s here none more so than last year’s winner Dakota Gold. The 7-year-old will love the soft ground but hasn’t been at his best this season, albeit he didn’t run to badly when a 3 ¼ length 3^rd of 14 back in handicap company here last time.

Ainsdale is still waiting for his first win of the season but he’s got plenty of form that would give him a chance here. Finished a 1 ¾ length 4^th of 12 in a Group 3 at Ascot two starts back. Was ¾ length and two places behind Kings Lynn that day but does get 3lb form that one and is double the price. Ran well enough when a 5-length 10th of 20 in the Group 1 Champions Sprint Stakes at Ascot last time. Goes very well in the mud and is interesting in the first-time visor.

Jouska gained her second career success when winning a soft ground Listed fillies race at Newmarket last October. Not really at the level of form this season but has been running over 7f+ this season. A combination of a drop back to 6f and soft ground could well see the filly take a step forward like it did last season.

The unknown quantity of the field is the lightly raced Tarhib. The William Haggas trained filly has only had the three starts. She’s returned from a year off the track when winning a Lingfield maiden last month before easily seeing off four rivals at Yarmouth (good to soft) 18-days ago. Likely capable of better and interesting that connections pitch her in her given her handicap mark of 83 would be very exploitable.

2:40 – Virgin Bet November Handicap (Class 2) – 1m 4f

It’s fair to say the November Handicap isn’t the betting race it once was. In the not-so-distant past it was lively ante post betting race with bookies usually having the race priced up for a few weeks. Sadly, not these days. Indeed, on Monday I could hardly find a bookmaker who had priced up this year’s race.

Looking at the last 13 renewals of the race 264 horses have competed in the November Handicap. It’s not been a good race for favourite backers. The clear or joint favourite is 1 winner from 13 bets 3 placed since 2008.  That said it’s not been a race for a shock winner either. Those horses returned 22/1 & bigger are 0 winners from 114 bets 14 placed.

Since 2008 a low draw has been a big negative with those runners drawn in stalls 1-9 producing 0 winners from 90 bets 11 placed.  The higher the draw the better your selection’s chance. Those runners drawn in the second half of the draw have produced nine of the last 12 winners of the race.

The November Handicap is a promising enough race for those of you who like your trends and for those of you looking for a way into the race and/or looking to create a shortlist of runners. You will probably do worse than focus on runners with the following traits:

Odds SP: 20/1 & under

Odds SP last race: 7/2 to 14/1

Best in last three runs: 1^st or 2^nd  

Stall: 8 +

These qualifiers have produced – 12 winners from 65 bets with 21 placed. That’s 100% of the winners from just 25% of the total runners.

Looking at trainers to note – John Gosden has saddled the winner of the November Handicap six times since 1991 with three of them coming since 2008.  He’s only got one entry in this year’s race the 3-year-old First Light.

Three-year-old’s have won the race 11 times since 1990 but that age group are 1-37 5 placed since 2008.

Most of the fancied horses have stood their ground for the final big flat race of the season.

First Light returned from an 83-day lay off with a respectable effort in an Ascot Listed race last time. He’s just 4lb higher than for his last success and must be high on the short list.

Another 3-year-old with claims is the consistent Farhan. He put in a personal best when a 2 ¼ length 2^nd of 15 to a potential Group horse in Siskany in the Old Rowley Cup last time.

Of the older horses. Ian Williams saddled the winner of this in 2017 and has a couple of entries in East Asia and Cardano. The former stormed back to form when winning at Nottingham (1m 6f) recently. Both his horses maybe better over further though.

Mr Curiosity is a progressive and lightly raced 4-year-old who ran out a comfortable winner at Redcar over 1m 6f last time.

The 5-year-old Sam Cooke flopped in this race last year but was coming back from 3-month absence that day. He been in the form of his career on his last two starts winning at York (1m 4f) two starts back and finishing 2^nd of 10 at Newbury when dropped back to 1m 2f last time.

Top-weight Global Storm was in good form in the first part of season winning at Newmarket (1m 6f) in May before finishing a 1 ¼ length 3rd of 15 at Royal Ascot and then posting a career best when a ¾ length 2nd of 15 at Newmarket in July. Has struggled off a career high mark on two subsequent starts though. Adam Farragher takes off a handy 5lb but the 4-year-old probably needs the first time cheekpieces to have the desired effect if he’s to win.

Deja has been in poor form on her four starts in listed/group company this season. However, the mare is a well handicapped horse if returning to the form of her soft ground success in last season’s Old Newton Cup at Haydock, off 4lb higher. Gets the first-time blinkers here but stall 5 is off-putting.

Betting Advice:

Aintree

2:15 – 1pt win – Spyglass Hill – 9/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes and 1pt win – Thomas Macdonagh – 10/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

Wincanton

2:25 – 1pt win – Kissesforkatie – 10/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

3:00 – 1pt each way – Irish Prophecy – 10/1 @ Bet365 & Ladbrokes (both paying 3 places ¼ odds)

Doncaster

1:25 – 1pt win – Orbaan – 9/1 @ Bet365 and 1pt win – Boardman – 10/1 @ Bet365

2:40 – 1pt win – Farhan – 10/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes and 1pt win – First Light – 8/1 @ Coral

Cheers

John

Hi all,

I’m away on a short break this weekend but I have one for you today. Plus, you’ll find my Breeders Cup Preview and selections I will be sending out my Saturday selections from Aintree, Wincanton & Doncaster on Friday. There’s unlikely to be any Sunday selections this weekend.

Newbury

3:05 – Valleres 2-5 over hurdles last season is an interesting recruit to chasing. He should do well over fences and will likely prove popular on his chase debut. Trainer Alan King saddled the winner of this race in 2019.

Dublin Four got off the mark over fences when winning a handicap here (2m 6f) in March. The 7-year-old maintained his progress when a 12 lengths 4^th of 13 in a novice handicap chase at Ayr the following month. Seemed to stay 3m well enough that day so the drop back to 2m 4f could find him out on his seasonal return.

Smarty Wild, a useful hurdler got off the mark on his fourth attempt over fences when winning a handicap chase at Kempton in January. Was let down by his jumping last season but if he can cut out the mistakes, he can win races this season. All five career wins have come going right-handed and he’s 0-4 going this way around. This is his trip though and if he’s ready to roll after a 229-day break shouldn’t be far away.

Lust For Glory won twice over fences last season but struggled in better races on her final three starts in the Spring. Both last season’s win came on testing ground but she’s won on a sounder surface earlier in her career including over hurdles here years’ ago. Trainer Nicky Henderson saddled last year’s winner and the mare can go well for him here.

1pt win – Lust For Glory – 9/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

Breeders’ Cup 2021 Preview

The Breeders Cup returns to California this year and connections will be hoping to take advantage of the likely quick ground. 

Del Mar turf track is a sharp one, almost more like a greyhound track than a British racecourse, and there’s only 817 feet from the home turn to the finishing post. It’s a bit like Chester with shorter run in and suits handy well-balanced horses who have the tactical speed to get a good position. It favours those that race to the fore, as it’s easy to find trouble and the short run-in means a horse doesn’t have much time to recover.

Given the sharpness of the track not surprisingly a high draw is likely to prove a disadvantage.  Those drawn wider either must break quickly to try to obtain a prominent sit or be dropped in and be ridden for luck.

Friday – Day 1

Day one see’s the juvenile’s take centre stage for ‘Future Stars Friday’. I have concentrated on the turf races but I do have couple of interest on the dirt. It’s a quiet start on the selections front with just two this evening.  

11:10 – Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (Grade 1) – 1m

I really fancied Mise En Scene here but she’s been drawn in stall 13 of 14. Mise En Scene has just had three starts winning at Hayadock on her racecourse debut and the following up in a Group 3 at Goodwood. Finished a 3-length 4^th of 9 in the Group 1 Fillies Mile at Newmarket last time. A sound surface will suit and she’s can go close if she can overcome her wide draw.

11:50 – VG Breeders’ Cup Juvenile presented by Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance (Grade 1) – 1m ½ f

On the dirt for this one and I’m taking a flyer here with the Japanese trained juvenile Jasper Great. There was a record number of Japanese entries for this year’s Breeders Cup and they will be disappointed if they don’t get a winner.

Jasper Great comes into the race with just one career run but that one run did see the colt make all to win by ten lengths on his racecourse debut last month. The son of Arrogate was bred in the United States and his half-brother Power Broker was a California Grade 1 winner. He has a good draw in stall 2 and showed he has the required stamina having already won over 1m 1f. The big question is does he have the experience to win a race like this after just one start. He’s a big price to find out.

12:30 – Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (Grade 1) (2yo Colts & Geldings) (Turf) – 1m

Aidan O’Brien doesn’t bring a horse over for the Breeders Cup unless he thinks they will handle the course and can win.  He saddles Glounthaune here. The son of Kodiac won a Curragh maiden in April but was off the track until finishing 6^th of 8 in the Group 1 Dewhurst Stakes. He was too inexperienced to do himself justice that day but quickly bounced back to winning ways in a Group 3 at Leopardstown 7-days later. He should stay a mile and has the scope to improve further.  Stall 8 could better but it could be worse.

Betting Advice:

11:50 – 0.5pts each way – Jasper Great – 16/1 @ Sky Bet (paying 4 places)

12:30 – 1pt win – Glounthaune – 9/1 @ Bet365 & William Hill

Saturday – Day 2

This is where the meeting gets interesting with the Breeders’ Cup Mile and the Breeders’ Cup Turf being the two races that interest me most. I have six selections for you on the Saturday card.

7:40 – Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint (Grade 1) – 5f

Kevin Ryan saddled Glass Slippers to win this 12 months ago and the mare is entered up again. Ryan also saddles Nunthorpe runner-up and Haydock Betfair Sprint Cup winner Emaraaty Ana.  The ground was firm at Haydock so the 5-year-old should relish the fast ground. He might be better over a bit further but can be expected to run well. Both the Ryan horses have good low draws but on fast ground, I’m just siding with Emaraaty Ana.

8:19 – Big Ass Fans Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile (Grade 1) – 1m

The Japanese have two of the eight declared runners in Jasper Prince and Pingxiang. Over the mile trip I prefer the claims the latter. Pingxiang, an American bred son of Speightstown, has won his last two starts in Japan over 7f. Like Jasper Prince this will be the 4-year-old’s first start over a mile but he’s been strong at the end of his races over 7f there’s a good chance he will stay. It will be tough to beat the home team but he’s a sporting bet at big odds.

8:59 – Maker’s Mark Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf (Grade 1) – 1m 3f

Love hasn’t been in the same this season as she was in 2020. However, she will relish the quick ground she’s likely to encounter here and should go well.

Audarya won this last year on firm ground at Keeneland but she has 1 ½ f further to travel this year. Her form ties in with Love on their Royal Ascot running and she should make a bold bid for back-to-back wins in the race but stall 12 could be better.

Japanese raider Loves Only You is a Group 1 winner in her native Japan but she also proved she’s good traveller when winning the Group 1 QEII Cup in Hong Kong in April and when a ½ length 3^rd of 9 behind Mishriff in the Group 1 Sheema Classic in Meydan. A reproduction of her Meydan performance puts her firmly in the mix here.

10:20 – FanDuel Breeders’ Cup Mile – 1m

The Europeans will be disappointed if they can’t win this race. Space Blues & Master Of The Seas, trained by Charlie Appleby and Mother Earth trained by Aidan O’Brien and Pearls Galore from the Paddy Twomey yard give the British & Irish a strong hand in the race.

Space Blues gained his second Group 1 success when coming from behind to win the Prix Floret at Longchamp last month. He was strong at the finish over 7f that day which suggest he can effective over mile in this company. This will be the 5-year-old’s third start beyond 7f. He won a Nottingham maiden as a juvenile and was beaten a head at the same venue in April 2019.

Stablemate Master Of the Seas has been lightly raced this year but that campaign includes a win in the Group 3 Bet365 Craven Stakes and missing out on the Group 1 2,000 Guineas by only a short head. Off for five months he shaped like the run was needed when a 1 ¼ length 3^rd of 7 in a Group 2 at Newmarket in September. The colt didn’t build on that promise when a 6 ¼ lengths 7th of 10 to Baaeed in Queen Elizabeth II Stakes at Ascot. The ground was good to soft at ascot and his best form has come on quick ground. He gives Godolphin a strong hand in the race and this race and track could really suit this strong traveller.

Mother Earth was second in last year’s Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf.  The filly was a useful juvenile but has done even better this year winning the 1,000 Guineas on her seasonal reappearance and the Group 1 Prix Rothschild in August. She’s only finished out of the first three once this season and that came last time when she was a 3 ¼ lengths 5th of 10 to Baaeed in Queen Elizabeth II Stakes at Ascot last time.

Pearls Galore has improved all season winning a pair of Group 3 at Fairyhouse & Tipperary over the summer before beaten a neck in the Group 1 Matron Stakes at Leopardstown and a 2-length runner-up to Space Blues in the Floret. Has a bit to find with Space Blues on their running at Longchamp but has a similar chance to Mother Earth. Stays a mile and has won on good ground. Each way claims but stall 12 won’t be easy to defy.

Verdict: Pearls Galore will like the ground and if she had a lower draw she would be the pick but given her wide draw I’m just going with Master Of The Seas.  

11:00 – Longines Breeders’ Cup Distaff (Grade 1) (Dirt) – 1m 1f

Royal Flag came with a strong run to win a Grade 2 at Belmont over the distance last month. A consistent mare who’s never been out of the first three on her 12 career starts. Needs a career best to win this but given the ease of her last win she maybe be capable of producing it.

11:40 – Longines Breeders’ Cup Turf (Grade 1) – 1m 4f

Tarnawa last years’ winner has stall 13 to defy. The mare has been in even better form this year, Has finished runner-up on her last two starts, beaten less than a length in the Irish Champions Stakes and in the Qatar Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe. Despite her wide berth she’s the one to beat.

Channel Maker almost stole this race from the front 12 months ago but was caught by Tarnawa in the final few yards and finished a length 3^rd. Not been at that level of form so far this season but can never be ruled out when getting an uncontested lead.

Teona looks to finally fulfilling her potential. The filly well beaten on soft ground in the Oaks she comes into this having won listed race at Windsor (good to firm) before posting a career best when beating six rivals in the Group 1 Prix Vermeille (good) at Longchamp last time. Missed the Arc due to the soft ground and will be more at home back on the quick ground. Likely hasn’t reached her ceiling just yet and another big run can be expected, albeit stall 12 could have been better.

German raider Sisfahan could be the value alternative to Tarnawa.  The colt won the German Derby in the spring before finishing a length runner-up behind subsequent Arc winner Torquator Tasso in a Group 1 at Baden-Baden in September. Not seen to best effect in a tactical race when a 3-length 3^rd of 8 to Alpinista in Group 1 at Cologne last time. A strongly run 1m 4f will suit. Granted this will be the fastest ground he’s encountered but provided he handles it has excellent each way claims.

Verdict: Tarnawa deserves to be favourite and is the one to beat. However, stall 13 won’t be easy to overcome. Sisfahan is one I’m really looking forward to and is one of my strong fancies of the weekend. If he’s as effective on quick ground I can see him going very well.

Betting Advice:

7:40 – 1pt win – Emaraaty Ana – 6/1 @ Bet365 & William Hill

8:19 – 0.5pts each way – Pingxiang – 25/1 @ William Hill (paying 3 places)

8:59 – 1pt win – Loves Only You – 9/2 @ Bet365

10:20 – 1pt win – Master Of The Seas – 10/1 @ Bet365 & William Hill

11:00 – 1pt win – Royal Flag – 8/1 @ William Hill

11:40 – 1pt each way – Sisfahan – 16/1 @ Bet365 (paying 3 places)

Hopefully there’s a winner among my Breeders’ Cup selections. Watch your inboxes for Saturday’s selection from this side of the Atlantic.

Cheers

John

Hi all,

Shandoz got the week’s tipping off to a good start. The 4-year-old got a perfect ride from jockey David Egan. Hopefully you got on at 9/1 as the money really spoke in the selections favour as he was returned at just 9/2.

There’s a good card for a Tuesday at Exeter this afternoon for Haldon Gold Cup Day.

Exeter

The going is being described as good to soft, soft in places for Exeter’s Haldon Gold Cup fixture. Sadly, this year’s renewal has only attracted six runners.

1:55 – Betway Haldon Gold Cup (A Limited Handicap Chase) (Grade 2) – 2m 1 ½ f

Last year’s winner Greaneteen bids for back-to-back wins. The 7-year-old beat Altior in a Grade 1 chase at Sandown in April which means he’s now 17lb higher than when successful 12 months ago. Must give plenty of weight away to his rivals here but does have a touch of class and the 7-year-old could be capable of better.

The bookies make Greaneteen’s stablemate Hitman the overnight favourite. A second season chaser the 5-year-old won two of his five starts over fences last season and finished the campaign with a respectable 3^rd of 7 in the Grace 1 Manifesto Novices’ Chase at Aintree in April. The drop back form 2m 4f is a positive and given his age he’s capable of more progress this season. He could well be the new Greaneteen.

Eldorado Allen finished two places behind Hitman at Aintree. The 7-year-old had made a good start to his chasing career winning his first two starts including a Grade 2 at Cheltenham last season and finished a 12-length 2^nd of 5 to Shishkin in the Arkle Novices’ Chase at the Cheltenham Festival in March. The ease in the ground will suit him and the yard brought back Fiddlerontheroof to win at Carlisle on Sunday so he can’t be easily dismissed.

Moonlighter ran Greaneteen to a neck in last year’s race and won at Sandown in February. He races off 6lb higher. Has had wind surgery since pulling up in the Grand Annual at the Cheltenham Festival in March. Has an 11lb pull in the weights with Greaneteen which must make makes him of plenty of interest.

Verdict: A fascinating racing. Greaneteen must give weight all round but does have a touch of class. Stablemate Hitman is the one with the upside. Moonlighter is handicapped to reverse placings with Greanetee. Eldorado Allen doesn’t have much to find at the weights with the other three mentioned and he could be capable of a better performance.

1pt win – Greaneteen – 4/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

2:55 – A competitive field of 13 are set to line up for this 3m stayers handicap chase.

Poppa Poutine has the scope to do better over fences than hurdles but he will have to be a decent horse to win this on his chase debut against more experienced handicappers.

It may pay to look at three that are all well handicapped horses if returning to their best.

Lamanver Pippin lost his way last season after running Storm Control to 1 length in a 3m 1f Cheltenham handicap chase on his seasonal return last season. He’s now 9lb below that mark and the 8-year-old could yet to fulfill his potential for staying handicap chases.

Django Django is another lurking on a good mark if bouncing back to his best. Well below his best on four starts last season the 8-year-old is now 2lb below his last winning mark. First start since pulling up in the valuable Classic Handicap Chase (7/1) at Warwick in January but the yard can prepare one for their seasonal return.

Just A Sting was another to lose his way last season. Has switched to the Tom George yard and although he didn’t show much on his stable debut over hurdles 23-days ago.  He’s a well handicapped horse over fences if the stable change has the desired effect. A former C&D winner he’s now 11lb below his last winning mark. Risks attached but does get the first-time blinkers today.

Verdict: My main pick here is Lamanver Pippin but I can’t really key either Django Django or Just A Sting go unbacked here.

1pt win – Lamanver Pippin – 10/1 @ Bet365

0.5pts win – Django Django – 11/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

0.5pts win – Just A Sting – 25/1 @ Bet365

Cheers

John

Hi all,

Three seconds on Sunday but no winner so it was a poor day at the coalface.

There are jump cards at Hereford and Plumpton this afternoon. Racing is back on the beach at Laytown. And there are all-weather fixtures at Kempton and this evening at Wolverhampton.  

It’s an excellent card at Kempton for a Monday afternoon. The feature race of an eight-race card is the Listed, perhaps wrongly named as it’s been run during the afternoon, Floodlit Stakes (3:05).  The following race, London Middle Distance Series Final Handicap (3:40) isn’t too shabby either.

A rare Monday with selections then for me. Not sure how many there will be between now and Friday so watch your inboxes.

Kempton

3:05 – Unibet 3 Uniboosts A Day Floodlit Stakes (Listed Race) – 1m 4f

Hamish beat Hukum in the Group 3 September Stakes over C&D. Classy on his day and a worthy favourite but he was below his best form when only 4th of 10 to Trueshan in Long Distance Cup at Ascot last time.

Dubai Future won a 1m 6f handicap at Meydan in February before finishing runner-up in a Group 2 and doing as well as could have been expected when a 5-length 5^th of 9 to Mishriff in the Group 1 Sheema Classic at Meydan last time. First run since but likely to be fit enough to do himself justice.

John Leeper looked a nice middle-distance prospect when winning the Listed Fairway Stakes at Newmarket in May. He didn’t build on that promise on his next three starts but wasn’t disgraced when a 3 ¾ lengths 3^rd of 4 in a Listed race back at Newmarket last time. A winner on the tapeta at Newcastle on his sole all-weather. The first time cheekpieces are applied today which means an improved performance could be forthcoming from the 3-year-old.

Shandoz has a bit to find on Official Ratings with the likes of Hamish & Dubai Future. A progressive 1m 4f handicapper last season winning twice at Ascot last season. The 4-year-old returned from 12 months off the track with a cracking effort when a neck 2nd of 9 at Lingfield last month. He was doing his best work at the finish at Lingfield and could go close here on track that should him better.

1pt win – Shandoz – 9/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

1pt win – John Leeper – 9/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

3:40 – Marching Army won over C&D last time. He’s up 5lb for that win but has only had six career starts so there may be more to come from the 3-year-old.

Party Island has a good record on the polyrack with two of his four all-weather wins coming here, including over C&D. First run for 113 -days. He’s 4lb higher than for his last win and in better race but still has claims.

Pistoletto won over C&D, with a bit more in hand than ½ length margin of victory suggests, last time and must be respected off just 4lb higher. Andaleep was 1 ¼ lengths back in fifth in that race and gets a 6lb pull here. He’s since run too bad to be true at Bath but a return here could see a better performance and he can get into the places.

0.5pts win – Andaleep – 12/1 – Gen

0.5pts win – Party Island – 17/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

Plumpton

2:45 – Eleven have been declared for this 0-140 handicap hurdle. The market is headed by recent Uttoxeter maiden hurdle winner The Bomber Liston. There should be more to come from the 5-year-old on his handicap debut.

At the prices I prefer the claims of the Suzy Smith trained Debestyman. The 8-year-old’s sole win came in a novice hurdle over C&D in January 2019. He’s been lightly raced since, just the seven starts in the past two seasons.  Had looked booked for success in the Lanzarote Handicap Hurdle in January 2002 when blundering and unseating rider at the last when 3 lengths clear of the eventual winner.  Just the three starts last season. The best of which was a 2-length 2^nd of 19 at Cheltenham last October. No great record fresh but he races off a mark he can be competitive off and can get into the frame.

0.5pts each way – Debestyman – 12/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook (both paying 4 places 1/5 odds)

Cheers

John

Hi all,

Plenty of good performances from yesterday’s selections and Haafapiece’s success at Wetherby ensured it was a winning day for the service.

The Listed Colin Parker Memorial Intermediate Chase (2.00), won by Imperial Aura last year, is the highlight of the day at Carlisle. There are also jumps meetings at Huntingdon and Lingfield.

Across the Irish Sea Ireland, there is also jumping at Cork with the highlight of a seven-race card being Paddy Power Cork Grand National Handicap Chase (3:00).  The Irish flat season comes to an end at Naas. It’s a competitive looking card with some big fields. The feature race of an eight-race card being the Birdcatcher Premier Nursery Handicap (1:00) and the November Handicap (3:45) which has €80,000 in guaranteed prize money.

Let’s begin at Naas which does face a precautionary early morning inspection due to forecast heavy rain overnight. At the time of writing on Saturday evening the going is being described as heavy.  I hope Naas does race as that where most of today’s selections are from.

Naas

1:00 – Tally-Ho Stud Irish EBF Birdcatcher Premier Nursery Handicap (Premier Handicap) – 6f

Eastern Wind put in a career best when winning a 6 ½ f maiden at Limerick 22-days ago. The filly really enjoyed the heavy ground last time so won’t have any issues with today’s testing ground. Nursery debut off what looks a fair mark of 78 with Siobhan Rutledge taking off a useful 5lb.

Rhythm Of Zain has won both his starts this month at Navan (soft) and Dundalk 8-days ago. A nursery winner here over 5f in September. Going the right way and if he stays 6f on this ground he won’t be far away.

1:35 – Verhoyen has been unlucky with the draw on his last two starts at York and here over 6f last time. The 6-year-old is better judged on his 5 ½ f win at the Curragh (soft to heavy) in May off 8lb higher. Annalise Cullen takes off a useful 7lb off the 6-year-old back and he should make a bold bid from the front.  

Improving returned from a four month lay off to run better than his 5¼ lengths 8th of 13 at Limerick (7f) last time suggests. He goes well in the mud and although he drops to 5f for the first time in his career he could get into the money at big odds.

4:15 – Colm White Bookmaker November Handicap (Premier Handicap) – 2m

The last four renewals of the November Handicap have been over 1m 6f and the race returns to 2m for the first time since 2012.

The last two winners of the De Name Escapes Me (2020) and Jukebox Jury (2019) are set to run again. The first named can race off the same mark as 12 months ago and is better than he was able to show at Leopardstown last month. Jukebox Jury is well handicapped on his win in this race in 2019 but has struggled on both starts on the flat this season although he will like today’s likely heavy going.

Arcadian Sunrise won a 2m handicap at York’s Ebor Festival. The ground was quick that day and softer ground would have been preferred. He’s up 7lb for that success but he’s lightly raced on the flat and looks capable of going in again.

Caltor to advantage of a lenient handicap mark when wining the valuable amateur riders handicap at the Galway Festival.  Shaped well with race in mind when a 2½ lengths 3rd of 5 in minor event at Bellewstown last time. The first-time blinkers are applied and although the 4-year-old is 7lb higher than for his Galway success. Dylan Browne McMonagle takes off a handy 3lb and he’s set to go well if he handles the heavy ground.

The form of the Gordon Elliott yard means Duffle Coat has to be respected and he looks well treated on his handicap debut off a mark of 79, compared to a hurdle mark of 143.

Powerful Aggie bids for hat trick after wins at Killarney and in the October Handicap (1m 4f) at Leopardstown last time. Up 5lb for her last win and has stamina to prove for 2m on what is sure to be testing ground.

Willie Mullins has a couple of contenders in Maze Runner and Royal Illusion. Maze Runner finished a 1 ½ length 3^rd of 30 in the Irish Cesarewitch last time. He stays 2m well, goes on the ground and should be there or thereabouts. Royal Illusion was one place and 3 ½ lengths behind her stablemate at the Curragh. That was a return to form by the mare who easily won the Irish Cesarewitch (soft) in 2019 and finished 1 ¼ length 3^rd of 16 in this race last year, off 4lb higher.

Shanroe ran a cracker to finish best a 2¾ lengths 4th of 20 to Sonnyboyliston in Ebor Handicap (good) at York last time.  He made his effort more down the centre of the track in the Ebor so his effort can be marked up slightly. Goes well on soft ground so no issues with the going and finished a 3 ¼ length 4^th of 16 in this race last year on heavy ground when shaping like could improve for 2m on the flat. He can race off the same mark as in the Ebor and has only has six starts on the flat.

Verdict: Royal Illusion has place claims. Caltor is going the right way but I wonder if he wants ground as testing as this. Arcadian Sunrise looks a worthy favourite and has more to give on the flat. The same apples to Shanroe who looks over priced to this pundit.

3:15 – Finale Stakes (Listed Race) – 1m 4f

Patrick Sarsfield is clear on official ratings and the class horse of the race but his stamina for 1m 4f must be proved especially on testing ground.

Azallya had no issues with 1m 4f and soft ground when quickening clear of her rivals to win a Cork maiden in August. That was just the filly’s fourth career start and she’s capable of more improvement.

Cork

The ground is soft at Cork for the Cork Grand National so stamina for the marathon trip of the big race is going to be essential especially if the track sees more rain overnight.

3:00 – Paddy Power Cork Grand National Handicap Chase (Grade B) – 3m 4f

Dromore Lad caused a 40/1 shock when winning this race 12 months ago. The 9-year-old hasn’t come near to that form on his subsequent starts which means he’s now 3lb below last years’ winning mark. Risks attached given his recent form but too well handicapped to ignore.

Gordon Elliott has his runners in great form so Braeside must be respected here. The 7-year-old is 0-6 since going over fences but shapes like he can win a handicap off around his present mark. Best form has come on soft and heavy ground so no problem with the ground but 3m 4f could test his stamina on his first start since February.

Russian Diamond got off the mark at the sixth attempt over fences when making all to win a Fairyhouse beginners chase 22-days ago.  Must carry top-weight of 11-10 on his handicap chase debut. He’s a big horse though so the weight shouldn’t be an issue and he’s going the right way but 3m 4f asks another question of him.

Mister Fogpatches has improved for the step to marathon trips finishing 3^rd of 22 in the Scottish Grand National before going onto win a 3m 7f handicap chase at the Punchestown Festival. Returned from a 5-month absence to finish a 2½ lengths 4th of 13 at Listowel over an inadequate 2m 6f last time.  Should be spot on for this.

Screaming Colours is a thorough stayer as he showed when 5-length 4^th of 20 in the Midlands Grand National in March. He tends to do things at his own speed which means he can find himself well back in his races. First start for 225-days but he did win first time up last season and can be competitive.

Glorious Galway can make a bad mistake in his races as he did when last seen in action at Wexford in May. The 9-year-old finished runner-up in this race in 2019 and his two best RPR’s have come on heavy ground so he should relish today’s underfoot conditions and can’t be discounted.

Eleazar Des Neiges bounced back to from on his return from a six-month absence when ¾-length 2nd of 4 at Galway 26-days ago. The 7-year-old is 0 from 7 over fences but doesn’t look on a bad mark on the best of last season’s novice chase form. Shane Fitzgerald taking off a useful 5lb and he goes well on soft/heavy ground but there must be stamina doubts for today’s 3m 4f trip.

Verdict: A grueling stamina test will suit Screaning Colours and Glorious Galway. Mister Fogpatches must be in the mix after a promising return to action at Listowel last time. Russian Diamond will be hard to pass if he gets an uncontested lead here. Last year’s winner Dromore Lad has been well out of form of late but a return to this venue could see him bounce back form and if he does, he’s well handicapped.

Carlisle

2:00 – Colin Parker Memorial Intermediate Chase (Listed Race) – 2m 4f

Last year’s race was won by the Kim Bailey trained Imperial Aura and the trainer saddles race favourite Espoir De Romay. The 7-year-old won two of his four starts over fences and was in the process of putting up a career best when falling, in the lead at the time in the Grade 1 Mildmay Novices’ Chase at Aintree. Looks the type to better on his second season over fences.

Ahoy Senor took his form over hurdles to a new level when making all to win the Grade 1 Sefton Novices’ Hurdle at Aintree in April by 7 lengths from Bravemansgame. Has the cope to make up into an even better chaser and it’s interesting that trainer Lucinda Russell opts to give the 6-year-old his chase debut in a race like this.

Silver Hallmark won a Grade novices chase (heavy) at Haydock when last seen in action in January. That success means he must give 6lb to Espoir De Romay and 12lb to Ahoy Senor. There should be more to come from him this season but it won’t be easy to give weight away.

Pay The Piper has race fitness on his side. A winner of three of his four starts over hurdles last season. The 6-year-old finished a 3 lengths 2nd of 6 to a race fit rival on his chase debut Perth last month. Only rival fell at the first when he won a novice chase at Wetherby last time. Won her over hurdles on heavy ground last season and can’t be ruled out.

Betting Advice:

Naas

1:00 – 0.5pts win – Rhythm Of Zain – 12/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes and 0.5pts win – Eastern Wind – 12/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

1:35 – 0.5pts win – Improving – 18/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes and 0.5pts win – Verhoyen – 12/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

3:15 – 1pt win – Azallya – 8/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook

4:15 – 1pt win – Arcadian Sunrise – 6/1 @ Bet365 and 1pt win – Shanroe – 12/1 @ Bet365

Cork

3:00 – 1pt win – Screaming Colours – 7/1 @ Bet365 and 0.5pts win – Glorious Galway – 18/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes and 0.5pts win – Dromore Lad – 12/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

Cheers

John

Hi all,

We some super jumps action this weekend. There’s Grade 1 action with Champion Steeplechase at Down Royal (2.50). The race is likely to see the return of Gold Cup winner Minella Indo. It’s a sure-fire sign that the winter game is now centre stage when the best racing is over jumps.

The side of the Irish Sea, it’s Charlie Hall Day at Wetherby with the feature race the Grade 2 Charlie Hall Chase (3:05). The Wetherby card also includes the listed Mares’ Hurdle (1.55) and the West Yorkshire Hurdle (2.30) with Paisley Park set to return in the latter race. Jump racing returns to Ascot for the first time this season. The Grade 3 Bateaux Gold Cup (3.20) the highlight of a seven-race card and it looks to have attracted a decent entry.

There’s Listed action on the flat at Newmarket but make no mistake it’s the jumps where its at this Saturday.

You can watch the best of Saturday’s action from Wetherby, Ascot and Down Royal on another bumper ten race programme on ITV.

Let’s begin at Wetherby.

Wetherby

The first five races on the Wetherby card are being broadcast live on ITV.

1:20 – bet365 Handicap Chase (Challenger Middle Distance Chase Series Qualifier) (Class 3) – 2m 3 ½ f

Gericault Roque & Revels Hill both make their chase debuts against some more experienced rivals. The former made it 2-3 over hurdles when winning at Sandown in March. The step up to 2m 3 ½ f should suit the 5-year-old who can make up into better chaser than hurdler.  Trainer David Pipe has had a quiet month 0-19 in the past 14-days. Revels Hill got off the mark over hurdles at the fifth attempt when winning at Warwick in April. The ground was good last time so he does need to show that he can be as effective on an easier surface.  

Of the more experienced chasers Corran Cross makes most appeal.  The 6-year-old won twice over hurdles and chase debut for Denise Foster over the summer. Shaped with encouragement on his stable debut when a 5¾ lengths 4th of 6 at Worcester 23-days ago. Travelled well for a long way and seemed to just find 2m 7f to far. The drop back in trip will suit and he’s capable of better over fences.

Verdict: If the David Pipe yard was in better form, I would fancy chase debutante Gericault Roque. However, I’m going with Corran Cross.

2:30 – bet365 Hurdle (Grade 2) (Registered As The West Yorkshire Hurdle) – 3m

Paisley Park is the headline act here. He’s clear top on OR’s but I wonder how tuned up he will be here for his seasonal reappearance. If he is then he’s the most likely winner.

Master Tommytucker had a good season over fences winning three of his seven starts winning a Garde 2 at Kempton before finishing a 2-length 2^nd of 5 behind Dashel Drasher in a Grade 1 at Ascot. He does tend to make a silly mistake in races over fences. Interesting to see him back over the smaller obstacles. If he stays 3m and Paisley Park isn’t spot on fitness wise he could be the one to take advantage.

Irish raider Run For Oscar comes into the race in great form having won his last two starts in handicap hurdle company. He needs to improve again to win a race like this but it’s not impossible that he can progress further for the step up to 3m.

Verdict: Paisley Park is the one to beat. Run For Oscar is an improver and should go well despite a big rise in class. The more rain the better for Master Tommytucker and he can take advantage should the favourite not be fully tuned up.

3:05 – bet365 Charlie Hall Chase (Grade 2) – 3m

The most important jumps race of the season so far.

Cyrname won this race first time up last season but ran absolute shockers on his next two starts. Still, he’s the most likely winner if he can reproduce his effort here 12 months ago.

Shan Blue won his first three starts last season including twice here. He then went onto win the Grade 1 Kauto Star Novices’ Chase at Kempton. Three miles on a flat track is probably ideal for the 7-year-old provided he doesn’t too much out in front as he tended to do last season.

Fusil Raffles was a smart novice chaser last season at up to 2m 5f.  Ran with encouragement when a 5½ length 2nd of 4 to Bravemansgame in intermediate chase at Newton Abbot last time. Will better for that run but his stamina for 3m is an unknown.

Clondaw Castle improved for the step to 3m when winning the valuable Close Brothers Handicap Chase at Kempton at the end of February. Was not match for Clan Des Obeaux when runner-up to that one in the Grade 1 Bowl Chase at Aintree on his final start. Better judged on his Kempton run but needs the favourite to underperform to win. Reliable and should go well on his seasonal return.  

No stamina issues for Kitty’s Light. An unlucky 2nd of 16 in the Bet365 Gold Cup at Sandown on his final start of last season. The 5-year-old returned to action looking better than ever when a head 2nd of 13 at Chepstow earlier in the month.  This a big step up in class but he’s reliable and arguably even importantly progressive. If the ground is good or at worse good to soft, he can outrun his odds.

Verdict: Cyrname is the one to beat if in the same form as when winning this last year. Kitty’s Light is going the right way and can out run his odds provided the ground isn’t to testing.  Not sure he’s one I will be backing though.

3:40 – bet365 Handicap Hurdle (Class 3) – 2m 3 ½ f

Despite slight going concerns top-weight Pagero should go well.The 6-year-old took advantage of the drop in class when winning at Worcester last month. Only raised 2lb for that success and trainer Jonjo O’Neill won this race 12 months ago.

Haafapiece might well have won but for making mistakes at the final two hurdles on his seasonal return at this meeting last year. Handicapper has given the 8-year-old a chance as he’s on the same mark as at the start of last season.

Bourbon Beauty put in a career best effort when winning the Mares ‘National Hunt’ Novices’ Hurdle Final on her handicap debut at Newbury in March. Up 8lb for that success means she needs to have improved over the summer but it’s possible she can do so.

Rattle Owl made it 2-3 over hurdles when winning a novice hurdle at Sedgefield last month. Unexposed over hurdles and looks the type to do better. The 5-year-old must have a chance off a mark of 120 on his handicap debut.

Verdict: Tricky handicap hurdle. Pagero has race fitness on his side and is just 2lb higher than when winning at Worcester last time.  Rattle Owl looks on a workable mark for his handicap debut if as effective on an easier surface. Haafapiece probably should have won here 12 months ago and is another inn the mix on ground that should suit.

Down Royal

Plenty of returning stars on show at Down Royal today. Envoi Allen makes his seasonal return in the Grade 2 Chase (3:25).  There’s also a competitive looking 14 runner handicap hurdle (2:15).

However, the race of the card is the Grade 1 Ladbrokes Champion Steeplechase.

2:50 – Ladbrokes Champion Steeplechase – 3m

Like the Charlie Hall Chase the race has attracted a small field of just five runners.   However, the do include the likes of Gold Cup winner Minella Indo and the ever-reliable Frodon who should like the track. Sadly, my fancy for the race Road To Respect is a non-runner.

The race fit Galvin who won the National Hunt Chase at the Cheltenham Festival and showed his well-being when winning a Grade 3 at Punchestown earlier in the month.  Gordon Elliott has indicated that the Grand National could be on the agenda for the progressive 7-year-old. Personally, I think he could make up into a Gold Cup horse given his rate of improvement. He’s a best priced 4/1 with William Hill for this but a more interesting 33/1 generally for next year’s Gold Cup.

Verdict: Minella Indo is the one to beat and he did win first time up last season. Galvin could well make up into a Gold Cup horse. He’s got race fitness on his side. I won’t be backing him though given the easing of the ground.

Ascot

The ITV cameras are covering the first four races on the Ascot card. It’s a cracking early season card and the field sizes have held up well in three of the four handicaps.

1:35 – Ascot Underwriting Chase (A Novices’ Limited Handicap) (GBB Race) (Class 3) – 2m 3f

A tough little race with several horses who look capable of improving for going over fences and the race should provide plenty of future winners. Kid Commando heads the betting. The 7-year-old a winner here over hurdles last season at this meeting on his seasonal return so we know he goes well fresh. Has a wind surgery since his last run Trainer Anthony Honeyball saddled the winner of the race last year.

Of others in the race both Sam Barton & Sizeable Sam have the size to so much better over the larger obstacles although the latter may need further to be seen at his best. The 4-year-old Nassalam gets the 10lb weight for age allowance and must be respected if he takes to fences. Whatsupwithyou finished 4^th off 22 in the Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle and is another capable of winning races this season if he makes the transition to fences.

2:10 – Bateaux London Handicap Hurdle (Listed Race) (GBB Race) (Class 1) – 1m 7 ½ f

Boothill looked useful when winning a bumper at Kempton in February 2020 and won his sole start over hurdles at Taunton in December. Looked a high-class hurdling prospect when winning at Taunton. A mark of 135 on his handicap debut won’t be easy to defy given his inexperience but there’s a good chance he will prove much better than his mark.

Megan caught the eye on her seasonal return at Chepstow earlier in the month. The filly looked like she would make a winning return to action but she crumpled on landing three out and came down. It looked coming to three out that she would make a winning return to action. Although she jumped three out, well enough she crumpled on landing and came down. Given how well she travelled through the race she looks like she’s started off in handicap company on a competitive mark. Provide her confidence hasn’t been hit by this mishap she can win races.

Ajero has a productive season over hurdles last season winning four times, including twice in handicap company at Market Rasen & Huntingdon. Outclassed in the Grade 1 Top Novices’ Hurdle at Aintree on his final start. Needs to go right-handed and looks worth a crack at a race like this.

Verdict: Boothill could be well head of his mark and will win this if he is. Megan caught the eye on her seasonal return at Chepstow and looks on a winnable mark.

2:45 – Byrne Group Handicap Chase (Listed Race) (GBB Race) (Class 1) – 2m 1f

Editeur Du Gite made all to win the valuable Red Rum Handicap Chase at the Grand National meeting. He’s been raised 8lb for that success but should remain competitive in races like this when he gets a chance to dictate the pace as he did at Aintree.

Sully D’Oc AA was a length behind in second at Aintree and boosted that form when going onto win at the Punchestown Festival but is now 10lb higher. Frero Banbou was back in 4^th in the Red Rum and Grey Diamond was 5^th.

Frero Banbou gets a 10lb pull in the weights from the winner for a nine-length beating. Three from six over fences. The 6-year-old shaped like a horse who can do better in races like this. Today’s slightly longer trip will suit and trainer Venetia Williams saddled the winner in 2013 & 2015.

Grey Diamond was a further ¾ length behind Frero Banbou but is 1lb worse off here although he did chase the strong pace at Aintree and paid for it at the finish.  A winner at Sandown in March, off 5lb lower, he can’t be dismissed given he hails from the inform Sam Thomas yard (3-7 in the past 14-days).

Top-weight One For Rosie also has to be respected despite a mark of 149. The 8-year-old has won both his starts over fences early this year. Handicap debut over the larger obstacles here but won’t find it easy to dominate like he did last time at Carlisle. Another who goes well right-handed though and is in the mix. Trainer Kim Bailey & jockey David Bass are 5-15 33% +11 9 placed 60% when combining in chases at Ascot in the past 5-years.

Verdict: A lot depends if Editeur Du Gitecan get into a good jumping rhythm out in front like he did last time. Grey Diamond and Frero Banbou finished behind Editeur Du Gite but are weighted to get closer here. My preference is for the former but I do fear the Venetia Williams runner.  One For Rosie will appreciate any more rain but it’s going to be a tough ask to win this off top-weight.

3:20 – Bateaux London Gold Cup Handicap Chase (Grade 3) – 3m

Fourteen are set to run in the Ascot feature. Two past winners of the race are set to meet the starter. Vinndication won this 2019 and is the overnight favourite. The 8-year-old is 7lb higher this time around but is a better horse now. Put in an excellent effort when a 2-length 2nd of 10 to Cyrname in Charlie Hall Chase at Wetherby on return last year. Hasn’t gone right-handed since winning this two years ago, he’s better horse going this way around 3-3 here, and has excellent record fresh.  The top-weight tick’s plenty of boxes and is a worthy favourite.

Last year’s winner Regal Encore is another with an excellent course record and the 13-year-old is bidding for his fifth C&D success. He won this first time up last season, off 4lb lower, and will likely have been prepared for this. Stablemate Sojourn won first time up last season and then put in a similar effort when 2^nd of 10 in the Tommy Whittle Handicap Chase at Haydock, First run since pulling up in the Grand National Trial at Haydock in February. Has had a breathing operation since his last run. The 8-year-old has only had five starts over fences and he’s 3-3 when returning from a 180-day absence. A sound jumper of a fence but this trip maybe on the short side on this sort of ground. 

Jerrysback has twice run well around here. He looked as good as ever when returning from 13-month absence when a 5 lengths 3rd of 14 to Dashel Drasher in January. Disappointed on his next two starts, excuses for the first of them, made a bad mistake four out. Has dropped 5lb in the weights and the Philip Hobbs yard is in much better form now.

Johnbb took another step forward over fences when a 2 ¾ length 2nd of 13 stepped up to 3m for the first time at Aintree in April. He’s only had the six starts over the larger obstacles, winning two of them and remains unexposed over 3m. A winner first time up last season he should be fit enough to himself justice here.

Verdict: Vinndication has plenty in his favour and is a worthy favourite. The old boy Regal Encore can never be ruled out around here and this looks his race. Add in the likeable and progressive Johnbb and the well treated Jerrysback and you have the makings of an excellent race.

Betting Advice:

Wetherby

1:20 – 1pt win – Corran Cross – 15/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

2:30 – 1pt win – Master Tommytucker – 6/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportbook

3:40 – 1pt win – Haafapiece – 7/1 @ Bet365 or 13/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

Ascot

2:10 – 1pt win – Megan – 7/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

2:45 – 1pt win – Grey Diamond – 5/1 @ Bet365

3:20 – 1pt win – Johnbb – 13/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes and 0.5pts win – Regal Encore – 14/1 @ Bet365.

Cheers

John

Hi all,

The Grade 2 WKD Hurdle (2.20) and the Grade 3 Irish Stallion Farms EBF Mares Novice Hurdle (1.45) are the highlights of the first of two days’ racing at Down Royal.

Wetherby’s two-day Charlie Hall meeting begins in similar fashion with the Listed Juvenile Hurdle (2.40) and the Listed bet365 handicap chase (3.15). There’s also jumps action at Uttoxeter this afternoon. The featured race of Newmarket’s flat card is the Listed Bosra Sham Fillies’ Stakes (2.30). All-weather fixtures at Kempton and Dundalk complete the Friday action.

I have fancies at both Wetherby and Newmarket.

Wetherby

The going at Wetherby is being described as good and they have been watering. There’s a fair bit of rain forecast for the track on Thursday night and Friday morning so I wouldn’t be surprised to see soft appear in the going on Friday.

One of the highlights of day one of the Charlie Hall Meeting is Aintree Grade 1 winning hurdler Ahoy Senor making his debut over fences in the novice chase (2:05).

3:50 – Cash Out At bet365 Handicap Chase (Listed Race) – 2m 3 ½ f

The Big Bite really should have won but throw it away in a similar contest at Newbury in March. Has the ability win a race like this off his present mark but isn’t one for maximum faith. This track will suit him better than Cheltenham did on his last start in the spring and he did win first time up last season.

Laskalin is an interesting recruit to the Venetia William stable. The 6-year-old stay’s further than 2m 4f and seemed effective on soft/heavy ground in France. Likely open to more improvement and it will be interesting to see how he goes here.

Eclair D’Ainay, a useful novice handicap chaser last season. A solid jumper of fences the 7-year-old is another who is capable of better on his second season over the larger obstacles. Trainer Dan Skelton won this race with Born Survivor in 2018.

Newmarket

2:30 – Irish Stallion Farms EBF “Bosra Sham” Fillies’ Stakes (Listed Race) – 6f

Red Lacewing built on the promise of her racecourse debut when winning a Naas maiden, in a good time. last month.  She still looked green at Naas and is capable of more improvement. The step up to 6f should be fine and if she handles the track won’t be far away.

3:40 – Soto Sizzler has gone over two years since his last win but has threatened to come good on a couple of occasions most notably when a 2¼ lengths 2^nd of 10 at Epsom in June and when 5^th of 10 at Ascot two starts back. Poor run at Sandown 69-days ago to overcome but is handicapped to be competitive if bouncing back to form.

4:15 – Iconique found plenty for pressure when getting off the mark at the 5^th attempt at Yarmouth (good to soft) 18-days ago. Up 4lb for that success but she’s an inform filly and lightly enough raced to think she can do better.

Betting Advice:

Wetherby

3:50 – 1pt win – Eclair D’Ainay – 9/2 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook

Newmarket

2:30 – 1pt win – Red Lacewing – 13/2 @ Bet365

3:40 – 1pt win – Soto Sizzler – 7/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook

4:15 – 1pt win – Iconique – 5/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

Cheers

John

Hi all,

We have Listed action at Lingfield today with Ladbrokes EBF River Eden Fillies’ Stakes (2.13) and the Fleur De Lys Fillies’ Stakes (3.23) on a seven-race card.  There’s also evening all-weather action at Chelmsford with afternoon jumps cards at Ffos Las, Stratford, and Stratford.

I have selections in both Lingfield races.

However, firstly, I have one for Saturday’s Bateaux London Gold Cup Handicap Chase (3:20) at Ascot.

Ante Post Advice:

Ascot

3:20 – Gary Moore saddled the winner in 2016 & 2018 of this handicap chase and he could run Full Back who ran better than his 21-length 7th of 13 at Chepstow on his seasonal return suggests. He’ll strip fitter for that run and the 16/1 available with Bet365, just 10/1 with Ladbrokes & Paddy Power, makes plenty of each way appeal.

The 16/1 on Full Back has gone but 14/1 is still available with Bet365 (paying 4 places) and that remains value to me.  More on that race in Saturday’s preview.

1pt each way – Full Back – 14/1 @ Bet365

Back to today’s action.

Lingfield

2:13 – Sayyida finished 2 ½ lengths in front of Sea La Rosa when the pair finished second and third in a Group 3 at Newmarket last month. Today’s extra furlong will suit both but I fancy that the latter can reverse placings here. Her trainer William Haggas saddled the winner of this Listed contest 2017 & 2018 so knows the type of filly required to win it.

1pt win – Sea La Rosa – 9/2 – Gen

3:23 – Mrs Fitzherbert has left her previous form well behind on her last two starts since going handicapping, winning over C&D and then at Wolverhampton 35-days ago. The daughter of Kingman has a bit to find on Official Ratings with likely favourite Maamorabut she’s going the right way and looks capable of better for a yard among the winners.

1pt win – Mrs Fitzherbert – 11/2 @ Bet365 & Paddy Power

Cheers’

John