Author: John Burke

Hi all,

Another profitable weekend with a couple of big priced winners at Naas yesterday and overall, a good start to 2022 for the service. Which means of course I have probably already used up my quota of winners for the last eight or so days. However, I really like one in the 3:10 at Plumpton this afternoon.

Plumpton

3:10 – Minella Buster comfortably won a maiden hurdle here over 2m 4 ½ f here last month. Step up to 3m 1f asks another question of the 6-year-old but he likely remains capable of better on his handicap hurdle debut.

No stamina concerns with Sirobbie who is now 3lb below his last winning mark and must be respected on the best of last season’s form with the cheekpieces back on after they were left off last time.

Another runner who had dropped below his last winning mark is the Bard Of Brittany. The 8-year-old improved nicely for facing a sounder surface when winning three times between March & May. He’s now 5lb below his last winning mark and hasn’t been running to badly on his last two starts. Back up to 3m last time when a rallying 9 ½ length 5th of 11 at Taunton 32-days ago. He’s yet win beyond 2m 4f but he shaped last time he should stay 3m, especially at track that suits him (2 wins and a second from 4 starts at Plumpton). This type ground suits him better than soft and I think he can go close here.

Bard Of Brittany is a general 11/2. Although Bet365 are still a stand out 7/1 at the time of writing, I must confess I was hoping for bit better on the odds front.

1pt win – Bard Of Brittany – 7/1 @ Bet365

Punchestown

3:50 – Not a confident selection but top-weight Porky Rush can hopefully give his backers a decent run for their money in this 3m handicap hurdle. The 7-year-old is an eight-race maiden but he’s very much respected on his ¾ length 2^nd of 11 over around today’s trip at Wexford in June. Granted he’s got two non completions since that run. He was brought down back at Wexford next time and unseating his rider at Limerick on his return from a 5-month absence 34-days ago.

0.5pts win – Porky Rush – 9/1 – Gen

Cheers

John

Hi all,

A small profit yesterday thanks to Cormier’s win at Cheltenham and Hill Sixteen plugging on to take 4^th in the Sky Bet Handicap Chase at Doncaster.

The best of the action on Sunday is across the Irish Sea at Naas. The feature races of an eight-race card are two Grade 3 contests: The Naas Racecourse Business Club Novice Chase (12:40) and the BetVictor Limestone Lad Hurdle (1.40). The latter race see’s Whiskey Sour bids to give Willie Mullins a sixth win since 2012. It won’t be easy though as he faces the potentially smart Gordon Elliott trained Saint Felicie who is 2-2 over hurdles and steps out of novice company for the first time today.

I have had a look at three races on the Naas card in today’s preview and my selections can be found at the end of the main piece. 

Naas

12:40 – Naas Racecourse Business Club Novice Chase (Grade 3) – 3m 1f

It may be a Grade 3 race on paper but looking at the quality of eight runners it doesn’t look that far short of a Grade 1 in terms of quality and looks a good trial for the National Hunt Chase at the Cheltenham Festival.

Run Wild Fred is one of the leading fancies for the National Hunt Chase and last time out finished 8-length 2nd of 8 to stablemate Fury Road in the Grade 1 Neville Hotels Novice Chase at Leopardstown.  His stablemate Farouk D’alene, a useful hurdler, won a Grade 2 Novice Hurdle in December 2020.  made a winning chase debut at Navan two starts back before being caught on the line when beaten a short head by Master Mcshee in a Garde 1 at Limerick over Christmas. He’s another possible for the National Hunt Chase and can go well here if as effective on a sounder surface as he is in the mud.

Willie Mullins saddles three Stattler, En Beton and Stratum.  Stattler, a useful staying novice hurdler last season looks the stable pick with Paul Townend taking the ride. The 7-year-old made a winning chase debut in a beginners’ chase at Fairyhouse (2m 5f) last month. It was a good jumping display for a novice and he looks a smart chasing prospect although his stamina for 3m 1f must be taken on trust. En Beton arguably made just as an impressive chase debut as Stattler when winning a Punchestown beginners’ chase 30-days ago. His cause was helped by his better fancied stablemate falling two out but he was going as well as that one at the time. He’s lightly raced for an 8-year-old and has the scope to improve further over fences.

Vanillier was the best of these over hurdles, winning the Grade 1 Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle at last season’s Cheltenham Festival. A winner of a Grade 2 at Punchestown on his second start over fences in November. Wasn’t at that level of form when one place and ten lengths behind Run Wild Fred in the Neville Hotels Novice Chase last time. His Grade 2 success means he must give 8lb to his main rivals. It will be smart effort if he can give weight away to the likes of Stattler, Run Wild Fred and Farouk D’alene.

Verdict: Stattler just about deserves to head the market. Run Wild Fred will handle the ground. If Farouk D’alene is as effective on better ground he can finish ahead of his stablemate. En Beton looks every inch a chaser. His win last time came on heavy but he did win on good ground  maiden hurdle at Tramore in the spring.

There are also a couple of big field handicaps on the Naas card.

1:10 – Avec Espoir, a winner at Tipperary in July, should appreciate the drying ground and returned from a 3-month absence with a good effort when a 11 ½ length 3rd of 19 in similar race at Leopardstown last month. Sneaks in here at the bottom of the weight and although he may prefer further can go well.

Handsworth a winner of a handicap chase at Navan last month, off 6lb lower, ran like he remains in form when a 10 ¼ lengths 4th of 15 at Fairyhouse 15-days ago. Today’s slightly shorter trip and drier ground should suit the 7-year-old.

Jacksons Gold a progressive handicap hurdler last spring winning here, in March, before posting a career best effort when a ¾ length 3^rd of 20 in a valuable Novices’ handicap hurdle at Fairyhouse. Hasn’t reached his hurdles level on his three starts over fences this season but wasn’t disgraced when 3^rd of 6 in a Grade 2 at Navan last month. Looks on a good mark for his handicap chase debut and is worth considering.

Regina Dracones has made a good start to her chase career winning her last starts after unseating her rider on her debut over the larger obstacles. The mare showed a good attitude to prevail at Limerick last time. Up 8lb in the weights and drops 2f in distance in her hat trick bid attempt. Also, the ground was heavy at Limerick so she must prove she’s as effective on a sounder surface. If she is will take some stopping

Verdict: Regina Dracones has a likeable profile but the ground will be much quicker than for her last two wins. Jacksons Gold was an improver over hurdles at the end of last season looks on a good mark for his handicap chase debut. No ground concerns for Avec Espoir and Handsworth who are both effective on decent ground.

3:40 – Womalko is sure to be very popular with punters after a comfortable 4-length success, on just his second start in handicap company at Limerick (heavy) last month. A 12lb rise in the weights isn’t likely to be too much of an issue for the 5-year-old if he handles today’s sounder surface.

The Tack Room, like Womalko owned by J P McManus, shaped with a bit of encouragement when an 18 ¾ length 3rd of 16 in a Cork maiden 77-days ago. Clearly not the easiest to keep sound but 8-year-old can’t be easily dismissed on his handicap hurdle debut.  

Union Park is just 1-16 over hurdles but he put in a career best effort when a 4 ½ lengths 3^rd of 15 to Light Brigade at Thurles last Sunday. The 6-year-old was putting in his best work at the finish that day and provided this race doesn’t come to quick should be in the mix again on going that will suit.

Bigz Belief sole win from 12 starts over hurdles came at Navan (soft to heavy) last March off 6lb lower. The 5-year-old returned from a 5-month absence with a back to form effort when a 7-length 3rd of 15 at Punchestown (heavy) 30-days ago. The drop back 2m should suit and although his best form over hurdles has come in the mud. He seemed effective on good ground when winning at Limerick on the flat last April.

Verdict: Womalko shouldn’t be held back by 12lb hike in the weights for his recent Limerick success. However, the ground will be a lot tighter today than last time. If he’s as effective on a sounder surface he looks the most likely winner. The Tack Room is interesting on his handicap debut. Both Union Park and Bigz Belief come into the race on the back of good last time out efforts and shouldn’t be far away.

I’m not anticipating much in the way of selections until the weekend. However, do watch your inboxes for any updates.

 Betting Advice:  

Naas

12:40 – 1pt win – Farouk D’alene – 4/1 @ Bet365

1:10 – 1pt win – Jacksons Gold – 9/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes, 0.5pts win – Avec Espoir – 18/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes and 0.5pts win – Handsworth – 18/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

3:40 – 1pt win – Bigz Belief – 5/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

Cheers

John

Hi all,

The eyes of the jump’s world will be on Cheltenham on Saturday for Festival Trials Day which sees the last day’s racing here until March. The dry spell of weather means the going at Cheltenham is being officially described as good.

The Grade 2 Paddy Power Cotswold Chase (2.30) is the most valuable race with £120,000 in guaranteed prize money. Ante post favourite for the Cotswold Chase is Chantry House who’s on a retrieval mission after pulling up, when returned the 3/1 favourite, in the Grade 1 King George VI Chase at Kempton on Boxing Day.

There are also two other Grade 2 races on the card, including the Cleeve Hurdle (3.05). There are just five runners but they include Grade 1 Long Walk Hurdle Winner Champ, who bids to enhance his Stayers Hurdle claims, and former Stayers Hurdle winner Paisley Park.

Good ground at Doncaster means small fields are the order of the day for the three graded races on the card. Although the feature race the £100,000 Sky Bet Handicap Chase (3.20) has attracted an excellent field of seventeen runners.

Some rain is being forecast for both tracks but I doubt it will make much difference to the going at either Cheltenham or Doncaster.

ITV are broadcasting four races live from Cheltenham and three from Doncaster as part of a seven-race programme this afternoon.  

As ever I’m concentrating today’s preview on those races which have selections. Beginning with Trials Day at Cheltenham.

Cheltenham

12:15 – SSS Super Alloys Handicap Hurdle (Class 2) – 2m

Lively Citizen won over C&D in December taking his course form figures to 212. He’s up 5lb for his latest win which makes life tougher but his course record means the 7-year-old needs respecting.

Byzantine Empire made it 3 wins from his last 4 starts over hurdles when beating 13 rivals at Doncaster (good to soft) last month. Up 7lb for that success but the 5-year-old could be capable of better and is big contender on ground that suits.

Cormier had looked capable of going well in handicap hurdles like this when a 6 ½ length 4th of 12 in Welsh Champion Hurdle at Ffos Las in October. He was stilling going well enough when making a bad mistake at the 5^th when 15^th of 19 in the valuable Greatwood Handicap Hurdle here in November.

Kihavah got off the mark at the 5^th attempt over hurdles with a comfortable success at Newcastle (good to soft) 11-days ago. He’s been raised 12lb for his latest win but like Byzantine Empire is another who looks capable of better.

1:55 – Paddy Power Cheltenham Countdown Podcast Handicap Chase (Grade 3) – 2m 4 ½ f

Eleven are set to go to post for this handicap chase.

You must go back to October 2018 for Spiritofthegames last win. However, the 10-year-old has run plenty of good races in the meantime and five best RPR’s have come at Cheltenham, including a when a 3 ¼ length 2^nd of 16 to one of today’s rivals Coole Cody in last season’s Paddy Power Handicap Chase over C&D in November 2020. He’s now 11lb lower and Jack Andrews takes off a handy 5lb.

Farinet looks capable of further progress over fences and was a good winner at Sandown three weeks ago. It was soft ground last time though and he may be better on softer ground than likely today.

Galahad Quest looked set for a good season when 3^rd of 10 to Good Boy Bobby at Wetherby on his seasonal return and when a 5 ½ length 5^th of 19 to Midnight Shadow in this season’s Paddy power Handicap Chase over C&D in November. However, he’s subsequently fallen at Aintree and his jumping could have been better when only a 14 ¾ lengths 6th of 16 here On New Year’s Day.  Has been stopped 2lb for his latest effort and better run can be expected from the 6-year-old.

Magic Saint was 3 lengths and two places in front of Galahad Quest here last time. He’s dropped down to a winnable handicap mark and although this is probably as far as he wasn’t to go distance wise the better ground is a definite plus for the 8-year-old.

Jacamar got off the mark at the 4^th attempt over fences when winning at Kempton over Christmas. The first time cheekpieces he wore last time are retained. Only up 3lb for his Kempton win and a mark of 133 looks workable. His jumping will be tested here though and he does need to jump with more fluency than last time.

2:30 – Paddy Power Cotswold Chase (Grade 2) – 3m 1 ½ f

Chantry House is on a retrieval mission after pulling up, when returned the 3/1 favourite, in the Grade 1 King George VI Chase at Kempton on Boxing Day. A Grade 1 winning novice chase winner at both the Cheltenham & Aintree Festivals. The first time cheekpieces are applied today. He surely wins this if he stays 3m 1 ½ f and if back to his best novice form of last season.

The favourite just five rivals and the best of them loo to be Santini and Aye Right.

Santini won this in 2020 when trained by Nicky Henderson and was then a neck 2^nd of 12 to Al Boum Photo in that season’s Gold Cup. Ran well for a long way on his first start for Polly Gundry when 4^th of 9, under top-weight off 11-12 here In December.

Aye Right has got course form around here when a 7 ¾ length 3^rd of 16 in the Ultima Handicap Chase here in March. The 9-year-old posted a career best when winning the Rehearsal Chase (Handicap) at Newcastle 63-days ago. Runner-up Good Boy Bobby has since boosted that form when winning the Rowland Meyrick at Wetherby over Christmas.  Aye Right is just 1lb behind Chantry House on official ratings and fully deserves his place in the line-up.

Doncaster

3:20 – Sky Bet Handicap Chase (Listed Race) – 3m

Given the drying ground the sponsors will be pleased that 17 are set to meet the starter. Plenty in with a chance as you would expect.  

Nicky Henderson saddled the winner of the race in 2020 and he has a couple of big contenders in the same ownership inFusil Raffles & Janika.

Fusil Raffles was a lucky winner of the Charlie Hall Chase at Wetherby two starts back but followed up with an excellent effort when a 4 ¾ length 4th of 13 to Coole Cody in the Racing Post Gold Cup at Cheltenham on handicap debut last month. Look to have a favourites chance here.

Janika wasn’t subjected to a hard race when 7^th of 16 at Cheltenham on New Year’s Day.  The handicapper has dropped him 5lb since that effort and the 9-year-old is down to what looks a good mark. Stamina for 3m taken on trust but he shapes like it could suit.

Demachine didn’t get further than the first at Ludlow last time. However, he was a progressive novice handicap chaser last season and must be respected on his 5^th of 21 in the Ladbroke Trophy at Newbury on his seasonal return.

Cap Du Nord was a 3 ¾ length 3^rd of 11 in this race last season and can race off 10lb lower this time around. Poor run at Kempton last month to overcome. However, the better ground should suit the 9-year-old more and he’s very much a contender if bouncing back to his best.

Canelo was one place and ten lengths behind Cap Du Nord in this race 12 months ago. He hasn’t been at his best on three starts this season but is respected in the reapplied cheekpieces.

Hurricane Harvey finished 1 length and one place in front of Cap Du Nord in the Badger Beer Trophy at Wincanton in November. Nowhere near that form when a well beaten 5^th of 9 at Cheltenham the following month. A winner over C&D last season. He’s only had the 8 starts over fences and could be capable of better if he jumps better than last time.

Top-weight Nuts Well isn’t out of this although the 11-year-old does have stamina to prove on his first start at three miles.

Hill Sixteen failed by a nose top overhaul Snow Leopardess in the Becher Handicap Chase at Aintree two starts back. He never got competitive in the Welsh Grand National last time. If you forgive the 9-year-old his last time out performance, he’s very much in the mix on his Becher run.  

Betting Advice:

Cheltenham

12:15 – 1pt win – Cormier – 5/1 @ Bet365

1:55 – 1pt win – Spiritofthegames – 12/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes and 1pt win – Jacamar – 8/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

2:30 – 1pt win – Aye Right – 11/2 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook and 0.5pts win Santini – 14/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook

Doncaster

3:20 – 1pt win – Cap Du Nord – 13/2 @ Bet365 and 0.5pts each way – Hill Sixteen – 22/1 (paying 5 places 1/5 odds) or 20/1 @ Sky Bet (paying six places)

Cheers

John

Hi all,

There is no “Path To Cheltenham” this week. It’s not often we get a big race in midweek at this stage of the jumps season. So today were in for a bit of treat with the latest renewal of Thyestes Chase at Gowran Park.  I preview today’s big race inside the main piece.

Gowran Park

3:05 – Goffs Thyestes Handicap Chase (Grade A) – 3m 1f

A cracker of a renewal. Gordon Elliot bids for a third success in the race since 2018. The best of his five contenders look to be Braeside, Escaria Ten and Death Duty.

Braeside, won the Cork Grand National on his handicap debut/seasonal return and put in a career best in defeat when a 5 ¾ length 4th of 28 in the Paddy Power Chase at Leopardstown last time. Has a to be a big contender here of just 2lb higher.

Stablemate Death Duty was one place and 1 ½ length behind Braeside in the Paddy Power. That was the 11-year-old’s first start for 13 months. Each way claims but vulnerable to younger legs.

Escaria Ten makes his seasonal return and will enjoy the soft ground. The 8-year-old was a very useful novice chaser last season, putting in arguably a personal best when a 3-length 3^rd of 12 Galvin in the National Hunt Chase at last season’s Festival. Competitive mark, if ready to roll won’t be far away.

Longhouse Poet has been the gamble of the race. The 8-year-old shaped with plenty of promise over an inadequate 2m3 ½ f at Limerick over Christmas. He stays 3m 1f and better can be expected and the softer the ground the better.

Eklat De Rire was sent off the 3/1 favourite for the Ladbroke Trophy but ran no sort of race and was beaten when pulling up before the 17^th. Remains capable of better than he was able to show at Newbury and the 8-year-old will appreciate the return to softer ground here.

Ex Patriot was a 10-length 4^th in this race in 2020. The 9-year-old has only had two starts since that run and is another with each way claims racing in the first time cheekpieces.

Verdict: I’m concentrating on those at the front of the betting with both Braeside and Eklat De Rire high on the shortlist. Longhouse Poet is on a good mark but the price has now gone. Some bookies are offering six places and Ex Patriot looks the best of those at big odds.

1pt win – Braeside – 13/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

0.5pts each way – Ex Patriot -22/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook (both paying 6 places ¼ odds)

Cheers

John

Hi all,

It’s the final day of the Lingfield Winter Million Festival this afternoon.  The highlight of a seven-race card is the 2m 6f Fleur De Lys Chase (3:00) which has £150,000 in guaranteed prize money for the seven declared runners which will likely be six as Fanion D’Estruval is running at Ascot on Saturday. 

At Thurles the lack of any significant recent rain means the going is now good to yielding. Allaho faces just three rivals in his bid to win the Grade 2 Horse & Jockey Hotel Chase (3:15). Earlier on the card progressive staying novice hurdler Gerri Colombe bids to enhance his Cheltenham Festival Albert Bartlett Novice Hurdle claims in the novice hurdle (1:30).  You can see the best of the action on ITV4 who are covering five races from Lingfield and two from Thurles this afternoon.

I’m away on short break in Wiltshire (Monday to Friday) so there will be any selections this week until Thursday. That said its Thyestes Day at Gowran Park and the big race the Thyestes Handicap Chase is a race I like. There look to be a strong entry for this year’s race and I will have a selection or two in the race. So, watch your inboxes from Thursday onwards.

Today’s preview concentrates on Lingfield but there are also selections from Thurles and Warwick. I begin by looking at the two races on the Lingfield card.

Lingfield

3:00 – Fleur De Lys Chase (GBB Race) (Class 2) – 2m 6f

Given the prize money it’s a shade disappointing that just seven have been declared for the most valuable race of the day and the field is likely to be down to just six as Fanion D’Estruval seems unlikely to run after his brave effort at Ascot yesterday.

Dashel Drasher heads the betting a winner over hurdles at Newbury last month. He has a 6lb to give away here but he’s the form pick for me. No issues with the ground and this 2m 6f distance should suit the 9-year-old. His likeable attitude means he will always be a threat in races like this even giving weight away.

Bristol De Mai will relish the heavy ground but you must wonder if 2m 6f will be short on the short side for the 11-year-old. Like the favourite he also has 6lb penalty to carry here.

Itchy Feet hasn’t always been the most foot perfect over fences and he isn’t the easiest to win with as he hasn’t won over fences since his novice days. Can’t really fault either of his efforts this season though finishing runner-up at Aintree and occupying the same position behind Bravemansgame at Haydock 64-days ago.

Master Tommytucker has 2 lengths to find with Dashel Drasher on their running at Ascot last February but can’t be totally dismissed if his jumping holds up.

Two For Gold is another who will like the ground and shouldn’t have any problem dropping back to 2m 6f after winning a handicap at Doncaster over three miles last time.

3:35 – racehorselotto.com Surrey National Handicap Chase (Class 3) – 3m 5f

No issues with field size for this marathon race with fifteen declared to meet the starter and you can give seven or eight of them good chances.

Pemberley a winner at Warwick two starts back continued in form when 7 lengths 2nd of 15 to Go Whatever in the Sussex National at Plumpton three weeks ago. He gets 7lb from the winner here and I think he can finish ahead of Go Whatever this time.

Laskalin had plenty of winning form on heavy and very soft ground when trained in France. Hasn’t translated his best French form to the UK on his three starts since joining Venetia Williams. However, the handicapper has dropped him 13lb since the start of the season and his 2^nd of 9 at Exeter last time was step in the right direction. Totally unexposed over marathon trips and could be well in if he stays 3m 5f.

Smooth Stepper never looked like winning but a very strong pace meant he was staying on to finish 3^rd of 11 at Cheltenham on New Year’s Day. No problems with the distance for the 13-year-old and he’s 4lb below his last winning mark.

Fado Des Brosses jumped well when winning a beginners’ chase at Hereford last December but his jumping let him down at Exeter on his next start. Ran a bit better than his 27-length 7^th of 16 at Haydock suggest on his seasonal return last month. Another who’s unexposed over fences and marathon distances and both career wins have come on heavy ground.

Éclair Mag a heavy ground winner of handicap chase on his first start in the UK at Market Rasen 12 months ago.  He hasn’t hit form on her three starts this season but was sent off the 5/2 favourite for the Lincolnshire National on Boxing Day before falling at the 10^th. That market support suggests connections think he’s on a good mark.

Defuture Is Bright an improving handicap chaser last season and put in great effort when 3^rd of 11 at Haydock two starts back. Ran badly in the first-time blinkers at Fakenham last time and they have been dispensed with here and the cheekpieces return. The 8-year-old showed he stayed an extended 3m 4f at Haydock but 3m 5f on testing may prove too much of a stamina test for him. That said he’s getting down to a winnable mark.

The Galloping Bear a former multiple point winner and 2-2 in hunter chases last season has his ground today. The 9-year-old looked booked for second when falling three out over hurdles at Chepstow on his seasonal return in December. Another unexposed type who on pedigree should stay this sort of trip and not discounted.

Warwick

3:25 – Dubai Way, a decent handicap chaser two seasons back,was an encouraging 17 length 3rd of 10 on his stable debut at Uttoxeter last month. That was the 10-year-old’s first start for ten months so he’s entitled to be sharper with run under his belt. Unproven beyond 2m ¾ but if he stays, he’s handicapped to win races. The cheekpieces that were left off last time return and see him going well.

Thurles

2:05 – I like two in this 1m 7 ½ f handicap hurdle: Whatsnotoknow isn’t the easiest horse to win with but his sole career win came over C&D and he’s run well in better races than this. The 7-year-old was in the process of running a big race when unseating his rider two out in a Pertemps Series Qualifier at Leopardstown over Christmas. Takes a big drop back in distance here but Rachel Blackmore is back in the saddle and her form figures when riding the horse are 2212.  

Light Brigade was in good form this time last year winning at Fairyhouse and Naas before putting in a career best when a neck 2^nd of 22 in a valuable novice’s handicap hurdle at the Punchestown Festival. The 6-year-old hasn’t been at his best on either hurdle start in the autumn but he’s got plenty of ability and is handicapped to win a race like this when everything falls right. It will be interesting to see how he fares in the pre-race betting.

Betting Advice:

Lingfield

3:35 – 1pt win – Pemberley – 6/1 @ Bet365 & Paddy Power and 1pt win – The Galloping Bear – 10/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

Warwick

3:25 – 1pt win – Dubai Way – 13/2 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook

Thurles

2:05 – 1pt win – Light Brigade – 8/1 @ Bet365 and 1pt win – Whatsnotoknow – 11/2 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook

Cheers

John

Hi all,

Some high-class performers on show today. The Shishkin & Energumene clash is on Ascot in the Grade 1 Clarence House Chase (3:35). Up at Haydock Jonbon bids to enhance his Supreme Novice Hurdle claims in the Grade 2 Sky Bet Supreme Trial Rossington Main Novices’ Hurdle (1:25) and later on the card Royale Pagaille is the ante post favourite to gain back-to-back to wins in the Grade 2 Peter Marsh Handicap Chase (2:35).

Like yesterday I’m concentrating on those races where I have selections.

Ascot

1:45 – SBK Holloway’s Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race) (Class 2) – 2m 3 ½ f

Garry Clermont put in a career best when a 3 ¼ length 3^rd of 12 to Tritonic in the valuable Betfair Exchange Trophy here last time. He stays this longer trip, is effective on rain softened ground and should go close.

Steller Magic returned from a 10-month layoff and looked has good as ever, travelling like he’s on a good mark when a 1 ½ length 2nd of 9 to Up For Parol on his handicap debut at Haydock last month. Up 4lb for his last performance. Both wins over hurdles have come right-handed and he goes well on soft ground. Trainer Philip Hobbs saddled the winner of the race in 2016.

2:55 – bet365 Handicap Chase (GBB Race) (Class 2) – 2m 5f

Palmers Hill made it 2-2 over fences this season when winning here over 2m 2 ½ f 35-days ago. He’s been hiked up 8lb for that success but he’s open to further improvement for the step up to this sort of trip and the fourth in that race won nicely at Lingfield yesterday. He goes well on good to soft but really soft ground would be a slight concern.

Fanion D’Estruval is another last time out winner. The 7-year-old built on his fourth placed effort in Old Roan Handicap Chase at Aintree when winning at Newbury 57-days ago. He’s been raised 8lb for his Newbury success but Lucy Turner does take off 7lb.

Phoenix Way is lightly raced for a 9-year-old and he bounced back from a underwhelming run behind Fanion D’Estruval on his seasonal return when a 4 ¼ length 2nd of 13 to Annsam in Silver Cup here last month. That run came over 3m but he shouldn’t be inconvenienced by the drop back in trip.

Both Killer Clown’s career wins have come right-handed. The latest of those successes came at Wincanton two weeks ago. Up 7lb for that Wincanton win and in a deeper race today. He’s open to further improvement over fences and showed last time that he can be effective on soft ground as well as a sounder surface.

Haydock

2:35 – Peter Marsh Handicap Chase (A Limited Handicap) (Grade 2) (GBB Race) (Class 1) – 3m 1 ½ f

Top-weight Royale Pagaille faces nine rivals in his attempt at back-to-back wins in the race. Better than his 22-length 2nd of 7 to A Plus Tard in the Grade 1 Betfair Chase here on his seasonal return. It was only good to soft that day and he’s much better horse on more testing ground as he showed last season.

Empire Steel finished runner-up over C&D on his seasonal return. He was in the process of running a big race in the Rowland Meyrick Chase at Wetherby on Boxing Day when falling four out. I think if he had stood up that day, he would have won that day. He’s only had six starts over fences and is open to further improvement.

Remastered who was going strongly when falling in the Ladbroke Trophy. He had been expected to make amends for that mishap in the Tommy Whittle last time. However, he found the concession of 18lb to the improving Enqarde to much on the day.

Lord Du Mesnil’s form figures at Haydock are 1121. Last season’s Grand National Trial winner here. He had race when runner-up in the Rowland Meyrick last time and maybe be better over further in this company.

I have two other selections one from Haydock and one in the valuable handicap hurdle at Navan.

3:45 – A chance is taken with top weight The Last Day. The 10-year-old is 1lb above his last winning mark which came over 2m at Ascot in November 2019. He’s not been the easiest to keep sound though, as this will only be his third run since that success and his first since making a bad mistake back at Ascot later that month. Both starts last season came over hurdles. He likes plenty of cut in the ground and has win fresh in the past. If Evan Williams has him ready to roll he could surprise some better fancied rivals here.

Navan

1:40 – Damalisque won this handicap hurdle last season and bids to give connections a third successive win the contest. Granted he’s 12lb higher than 12 months ago which makes life tougher but he’s had a couple of decent enough runs this season and this will likely have been the plan for the 9-year-old.

Betting Advice:

Ascot

1:45 – 1pt win – Steller Magic – 9/2 @ Bet365 or 4/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

2:55 – 1pt win – Phoenix Way – 6/1 @ Bet365 or 11/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

Haydock

2:35 – 2pts win – Royale Pagaille – 5/2 – Gen

3:35 – 1pt win – The Last Day – 14/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

Navan

1:40 – 1pt win – Damalisque – 15/2 @ Bet365

Cheers

John

Hi all,

Day one of the Winter Million Festival at Lingfield.  If you’re lucky enough to be not working today you can watch the best of the action on ITV4 who are broadcasting four races from Lingfield and four from Market Rasen as part of an eight-race programme. Despite the dry weather this week the going at Lingfield is still being described as heavy at Lingfield. So, you can expect the ground to put stamina very much at premium there this afternoon.

Today’s preview just focuses on those races with selections.

Lingfield

1:50 – Trainer Kerry Leehad a welcome winner at Newbury on Thursday and hopefully she can have another won here with Financier.  Both the 9-year’s career wins over fences have come on soft ground. The last of them came at Hereford in March off just 4lb higher. Ran very poorly at Ascot on his seasonal return at Ascot last month but has been dropped 4lb for that effort and he’s a much better than he was able to show last time.

3:35 – There’s £52,030 on offer to the winner of this 2m Class 2 handicap hurdle which looks the most competitive race on the Lingfield card. There are three Irish trained runners Carrarea & Sevenna Star, trained by Emmet Mullins and Lucky Maxtrained by Sean Doyle.

Carrarea looks the pick of the Mullins pair with Paul Townend taking the ride. The 5-year-old put in a career best effort when a head second of 19 in handicap hurdle at Fairyhouse when last seen in action in November. Likely we haven’t seen the best of him yet.

Lucky Max has been tremendously progressive on soft and heavy ground on his last three starts winning all three. The latest of those wins came at Cork last month. Granted he’s much higher in the weights compared to last time but I don’t think he’s reached his ceiling just yet and seems the best value of the Irish challengers.

The best of the home contenders look to be Metier and Hudson De Grugy.

Metier is 2-2 heavy ground and he gets that ground for the first time since winning the Grade 1 Tolworth Novice Hurdle at Sandown 12 months ago. He was much better from the 6-year-old than on his seasonal reappearance when 9 ¼ length 4th of 12 to Tritonic in the valuable Betfair Exchange Trophy at Ascot before Christmas. Big chance here but not missed by the bookmakers who have him joint favourite with Carrarea.

Hudson De Grugy’s form figures on heavy ground are 211. The latest of those wins came over C&D last month. He will relish underfoot conditions and the handicapper has only raised him 3lb for his latest win. The 5-year-old needs to improve again to win again but he might be capable of the required progress.

Verdict: I’m going to take on market leaders Metier and Carrarea with Lucky Max and Hudson De Grugy

Market Rasen

The going at Market Rasen won’t be anywhere near as testing at Lingfield. The going is being described as good to soft for its seven-race card. I have a couple of selections at the Lincolnshire track.

2:05 – I’m going to take a chance here with handicap hurdle debutant Ladykiller. A four-time winner on the flat when trained in Germany, including a Group 3 in October 2019. Hasn’t transferred that level of form on his three starts over hurdles since joining the David Pipe yard in August 2020.  A 25-length 3rd of 13 at Newbury last month.  He’s shown enough to suggest he can win a race over hurdles and is interesting on his handicap hurdle debut off a mark 109.

3:15 – Hunny Moon built on the promise of her Worcester chase debut when winning over C&D (good to soft) when last seen in action 71-days ago. Today’s good to soft ground suits the 8-year-old and she’s only been raised 3lb for win. Open to further improvement over fences and is the one to beat here.

Betting Advice:

Lingfield

1:50 – 1pt win – Financier – 6/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

3:35 – 1pt win – Lucky Max – 9/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes and 1pt win – Hudson De Grugy – 17/2 @ Paddy Power and Betfair Sportsbook.

Market Rasen

2:05 – 1pt win – Ladykiller – 5/1 @ Bet365

3:35 – 1pt win – Hunny Moon – 7/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

Cheers

John

Hi all,

A stellar weekend of the racing begins on Friday. It’s the first ever Winter Million Festival Weekend at Lingfield. The feature race is the 2m7f Winter Million Hurdle (2.25).  Four of the races are being covered by ITV. The ITV cameras are also covering four races from Market Rasen, including the Listed Mares’ bumper (2:40) which last season was won Eileendover.

It gets even better on Saturday. Fingers crossed it will be Shishkin v Energumene in the Grade 1 Clarence House Chase (3:35).  Up at Haydock there are four Grade 2 races including the Peter Marsh Handicap Chase (2.35) and The New One Unibet Hurdle (2.00). There’s also a good all-weather card at Lingfield with a new race the Winter Oaks (3.40) a handicap, with £100,000 guaranteed prize money, the highlight of seven race card.  ITV are covering the best of the action from Ascot and Haydock on a seven-race programme.

On Sunday its back to Lingfield for the final day of the Winter Million Festival. The highlights of seven race card look to be the Fleur De Lys Chase (3:00) which has £150,000 guaranteed prize money and the Surrey National (3:35). Once again ITV will be covering five races from the Surrey track.

However, before all that good stuff. I have another Cheltenham ante post selection and there are decent cards at Wincanton and Ludlow this afternoon. The feature of a seven-race card at Wincanton is the Somerset National (3.50). For which eight handicap chasers have been declared. I have a selection from both that race and one at Ludlow.

First though my third Cheltenham Festival ante post pick.

Cheltenham Ante Post Selection

Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys Handicap Hurdle

First run in 2009. The Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle is the last race of the festival. It’s named after legendary trainer Martin Pipe who trained 34 Festival winners, as well as being champion trainer 15 times.

Eight of the 13 renewals of the race have been won by Willie Mullins (4), Gordon Elliott (2) and Paul Nicholls (2). The first named trainer won it last year with Galopin Des Champs.

It’s a race that Gordon Elliott likes to win and since 2009 his two winners and eight places have come from 21 runners. He had the winner in 2017 & 2018 and would probably have had the winner in 2020 but for Column Of Fire coming down at the last.

The Martin Pipe is one of those big field handicaps where I will have two or three running for me. However, for now I really like the claims of the Gordon Elliott trained Mr Fred Rogers. The 6-year-old has yet to run in a handicap but looks an ideal type for the race. He made it 2-4 over hurdles when winning at Thurles in December. He won that day despite plenty going wrong in the race. It was a slowly run race and his hurdling wasn’t particularly fluent either. That said he showed a good attitude to prevail last time.

He stays 3m so there are no doubts on the stamina front for him and he looks the type who is open to plenty more improvement when he gets a strongly run race which he should get in a race like the Martin Pipe.  

A best priced 16/1 with Bet365 but generally available at 14/1. If gets to Cheltenham fit and well, I can see him going off single figure odds.

1pt each way – Mr Fred Rogers – 16/1 @ Bet365 (paying 4 places ¼ odds).

Thursday Racing

Wincanton

3:50 – Somerset National Handicap Chase (Class 3) – 3m 2 ½ f

Destinee Royale was in the process of running a big race on her return from a 9-month absence. Out in front and in a good jumping rhythm. The mare looked like she would be tough pass when stumbling and falling five out at Cheltenham on New Year’s Day. Unexposed over 3m 2f+ she was travelling like she’s on a good mark. If none the worse for her fall she will hard to beat.

Her biggest rival could be the progressive Favori De Sivola who bids for the hat trick after wins at Exeter and here. His last success here came over 1 ½ f shorter but he looks like a stayer and he can improve for the step up to 3m 2 ½ f. Up 6lb for his latest win but he’s open to further improvement and will do for me.

1pt win – Favori De Sivola – 7/2 @ Bet365

Ludlow

2:30 – Bobhopeornohope improved for the fitting of the first time cheekpieces on his third start over fences when making all to beat Omar Maretti at Market Rasen 25-days ago. Up 5lb for that win but the second has since gone onto to success at Newcastle this week so the form looks sound enough.

Karl Philippe, a useful enough hurdler, had shaped with promise when 2^nd of 11 at Carlisle on his seasonal return and chase debut in October.  Disappointed at Ascot last time, was said to have bled, and remains with potential over the larger obstacles.

The Venetia Williams trained Gardefort has won around here in the past and goes well fresh. The 13-year-old is the veteran of the seven runners but he’s dropped down to career low mark and can’t be dismissed on his return from 305-day layoff.  

Topofthecotswolds bounced back to form, returning from a 4-month break when a 1 ¼ length 2^nd of 8 to the improving Palmers Hill at Wetherby three starts back. The 8-year-old was hampered an unseated at the first at Newbury on his next start before being below his best when a well beaten 7^th of 13 below form in the Racing Post Gold Cup (Handicap) at Cheltenham last month. He’s handicapped to go close if at his best today.

1pt win – Topofthecotswolds – 13/2 @ Bet365

Cheers

John

Hi all,

A disappointing Saturday although both the Warwick and Kempton big race winners were high on the shortlist. Cobblers Dream was a missed opportunity. When I first looked at the race on Wednesday, he was in my top three but the more I investigated the race I went against him. I wasn’t sure about Éclair Surf jumping at a track like Warwick so he wasn’t as frustrating a miss as Cobblers Dream.

After a good start to the year its back down to earth but it’s a marathon not a sprint and we do have another day to claw back yesterday losses.

The highlights of the Sunday action are at Punchestown where the feature race the Grade 2 Moscow Flyer Novice Hurdle (12:15) is the first race on the card. Later, on the card last season’s top novice hurdler Bob Olinger will be odds on to make it 2-2 over fences in the Grade 3 Kildare Novice Chase (2:20).

In today’s main piece I preview the two big races at Punchestown. Plus, I have a well handicapped selection from this afternoon’s meeting at Kelso.

Punchestown

12:15- Sky Bet Moscow Flyer Novice Hurdle (Grade 2) – 2m

Dysart Dynamo looked a top novice hurdle prospect when making all to win on his hurdle debut at Cork last month. A winner of both his bumper starts last season the 6-year-old will be hard to beat here.

One of Dysart Dynamo’s main rivals looks to be stablemate Hawai Game. A French bumper winner in October 2020. The 5-year-old was purchased by J P McManus after that success. Off the track for 14 months. Like his stablemate he also made a successful hurdle debut at Naas last month. Jumping needs to improve but he’s another high-class recruit to the jumping ranks.

Guily Billy was turned over at 1/3 at Clonmel on his hurdle debut but made amends when comfortably winning at Tramore last month. He looks to have a big future and a trainer Henry De Bromhead is back among the winners.

Verdict: Dysart Dynamo could book his Cheltenham place with a win here. Guily Billy is another with plenty of potential and a good run can be expected.

2:20 – Kildare Novice Chase (Grade 3) – 2m 4f

Cheltenham Festival winning Ballymore Hurdler Bob Olinger made a winning chase debut at Gowran Park in November. First run since that success but he will be hard to beat on just his second start over the larger obstacles.

Not for the first time his main rivals look to be from the Willie Mullins stable. Mullins saddles Gaillard Du Mesnil & Capodanno. The former was 7 ½ lengths runner-up to Bob Olinger in the Ballymore before boosting that form when winning a Grade 1 at the Punchestown Festival. Bred to be a chaser. He was a disappointing 4/11 favourite when a 2-length 3rd of 15 to Capodanno on his debut over fences at Naas last month. Today’s extra furlong will suit and he might be able to finish ahead of his stablemate with that run under his belt. Capodanno a comfortable winner of a 3m handicap hurdle at the Punchestown Festival. The 6-year-old overcame a bad mistake at the second last to win on his chase debut at Naas and looks like he will prove to be a better chaser than a hurdler. It has the potential to be a fascinating novice chase.

Verdict: It’s hard to look beyond Bob Olinger but should the favourite underperform his old rival Gaillard Du Mesnil could be the one who takes advantage.

Kelso

The racing at Kelso on Sunday is more moderate. I was interested in chase debutant and top-weight Into Overdrive in the 1:05. However, trainer Mark Walford is very much on the cold list with no winner in the last 83-days.

2:40 – Kelso Betting Ring Bookmakers Handicap Hurdle (Class 3) – 2m

Top-weight Elvis Mail seemed to enjoy the return to the smaller obstacles when an 8-length 4th of 13 to Tamar Bridge at Aintree last month. Three from 6 at the Kelso. He looks a worthy favourite and this is a drop-in class from last time.

Albert’s Back was in great form in Nov/Dec 2020 winning at Wetherby & Haydock. Hasn’t run well on either start this season but the 8-year-old has dropped to 3lb below his last winning mark and would have a good chance if bouncing back to his best.  He looks worth chancing at the 12/1 available with Paddy Power.

Betting Advice:

Punchestown

12:15 – Guily Billy – 11/2 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook

2:20 – Gaillard Du Mesnil – 11/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

Kelso

2:40 – Albert’s Back – 12/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook

Cheers

John

Hi all,

I had my booster yesterday and I have to say I feel a bit rough so today’s main piece is shorter than normal as I just concentrate on those races with selections.

There’s plenty of it on Saturday. Warwick’ seven race card features three Graded races the Grade 3 Classic Handicap Chase (3:00), the Grade 2 Hampton Novices’ Chase (1:50) and the Grade 2 Ballymore Leamington Novices Hurdle (2:25)

Meanwhile at Kempton’s its Lanzarote Hurdle Day. The Lanzarote Handicap Hurdle (2:40) has new sponsors in the shape of Coral. This means the race is now worth £56,950 to the winner. Coral also sponsor the Grade 2 Silviniaco Conti Chase (2:05). Although I suspect they will be a shade disappointed that the latter race has only attracted a field of seven. Especially as the new sponsors have increased the prize money to £80,000.

The ITV cameras are covering five races from Warwick and four from Kempton as part of a nine-race programme. It’s the latter track where I start to today’s preview.

Kempton

1:32 – Coral “Fail-To-Finish” Free Bets Handicap Chase (Class 3) – 2m 4 ½ f

Kap Auteuil made it 5-9 since going chasing when winning at Fontwell last month. The 7-year-old has a 4lb penalty to contend with for his latest success but he’s going the right way and that shouldn’t stop him here.

Foxboro would probably have won but for a last fence mistake when a ½ length 2nd of 8 at Wincanton 20-days ago.  He’s up 1lb but is a winnable mark but needs to jump better than last time.

2:40 – Coral Lanzarote Handicap Hurdle (Listed Race) – 2m 5f

A maximum field of 20 are set to go to post for a race with £100,000 guaranteed prize money thanks to new sponsors Coral.

Nicky Henderson has won the race five times since 2003. He had several entries in this year’s race. And saddles three. The most fancied in the betting seems to be Marie’s Rock. The mare bounced back to her smart novice hurdle form when winning over C&D at Christmas. Up 9lb for that win but she had plenty in hand that day and if she can build on that effort won’t be far away.

William Henry won this race 2018. He was trained by Henderson then but is now with Sam Thomas. Hard to see a 12-year-old winning a race like this but there’s no denying he’s a well handicapped horse and could get into the frame.

There are a several unexposed types in the field.

Venetia Williams has saddled two winners of the race since 2004. Her sole entry is useful flat performer Green Book who bids for the hat trick after wins at Haydock and Ludlow. Up 8lb for his last win and would be much deeper company here should he run. However, the 5-year-old is going the right way and is open to further improvement.

Up For Parol put in a career best on RPR’s when winning at Haydock last month. He’s 3-5 over hurdles and could be capable of better for the step up to 2m 5f.

Cobblers Dream made it 2-4 over hurdles when making a winning handicap debut at Doncaster last month. He’s up 5lb but there was plenty to like about his Doncaster success and he looks progressive.

On My Command made it 2-2 since joining the Harry Fry when winning a mares’ only handicap hurdle at Plumpton 25-days ago. Up 8lb but there’s likely to be more to come from the 6-year-old but soft ground would be an unknown.

3:15 – Coral Committed To Safer Gambling Handicap Chase (Class 2) – 3m

Smarty Wild sole chase success came at this meeting last season. No issues with the track for the 8-year-old but there maybe stronger stayers at 3m among his rivals.

Double Shuffle is a double C&D winner and the 12-year-old won this race last year off 1lb lower. Well below form on either start this season but a return to this venue and the fitting of the first-time tongue tie could see him revive.

A Toi Phil is another 12-year-old whose better days are probably behind him. Formerly with Gordon Elliott he’s only had three starts since joining the Gary Moore yard. Off for nearly 12 months before a low-key effort at Cheltenham on New Year’s Day. Not out of this if coming on for last time.

Warwick

I have just looked at the one race at Warwick but it is the best race on Warwick’s seven race card. You will pleased to know I have resisted the temptation to get involved in what looks a trappy Pertemps Hurdle Series Qualifier (3:35).

3:00 – Agetur UK Ltd Classic Handicap Chase (Grade 3) – 3m 5f

Gericault Roque has yet to win over fences but he’s progressing well for a step up in distance. He was unlucky to come up against a big improver at Newbury last time. David Pipe yard is not in great form though. Achille was beaten 1/2 length into second here 12 months. He’s 4lb higher than last year but ran well for a long way when 4^th of 20 in the Welsh Grand National last time.

Corach Rambler, trained by Lucinda Russell is a very interesting contender. The 8-year-old has only had the three starts over fences but he’s won his last two at Aintree and Cheltenham. Overcoming a hit of greenness when idling on the run-in last time. Up 8lb but is a big improver. Yard won this with subsequent Grand National Winner One For Arthur n 2017.

The “wise guy” pundits have realized that last year’s winner Notachance has dropped back to his last winning mark. Two low key runs this season will have set up fitness wise for another big run here. The first-time visor has been added today and a big run could be forthcoming

Éclair Surf ran better than distance beaten when 3^rd of 10 to subsequent Welsh Grand National Winner Iwilldoit. He made a bad mistake, five out, when still going well that day. Goes well in the mud although stamina for 3m 5f not assured and needs to jump with more fluency than last time.

Evan Williams won’t have another big Saturday winner. Will he? Well, he might. He could saddle No Rematch. The 8-year-old ran well for a long way on is seasonal reappearance before pulling up at Exeter last month. Capable of better over fences. Needs soft ground to be seen at his best so connections will be hoping the ground doesn’t dry out.

Betting Advice:

Kempton

1:32 – 1pt win – Kap Auteuil – 9/2 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook

2:40 – 1pt win – Marie’s Rock – 6/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes and 0.5pts each way – William Henry 20/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook (paying 6 places 1/5 odds).

3:15 – 1pt win – A Toi Phil – 7/1 @ Bet365 & Coral and 1pt win – Double Shuffle – 11/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

Warwick

3:00 – 1pt win – Corach Rambler – 6/1 @ Bet365 and 1pt win – Achille – 11/1 @ Bet365

Cheers

John