Author: John Burke

Hi all,

Ok, it’s not as stellar as last weekend but there’s some good action this weekend.

Its Betfair Hurdle Day at Newbury and there are likely to be plenty of stars on show. The feature race of a seven-race card is of course the Betfair Hurdle (3:35).  Sadly just 14 stand their ground for the race which is poor turnout for the most valuable handicap hurdle run in Britain during the winter season.

There are also two Grade 2 contests. The Betfair Denman Chase (2:25) and the Game Spirit Chase (3:00). Two-time King George VI Chase winner Clan Des Obeaux missed the Dublin Racing Festival and last year’s runner-up will bid to go one better than 12 months ago

There’s also an interesting card at Warwick with the feature race being the Grade 2 Virgin Bet Kingmaker Novices’ Chase (2:05).  Where leading British Arkle Chase hope Edwardstone,faces just four rivals but they do include Third Time Lucki and Brave Seasca, in his bid for a four timer over fences and strengthen his Arkle claims.  The best of the action from both tracks will be live on ITV4.

Sunday sees the Irish Grand National Trial at Punchestown and there’s a decent looking card at Exeter.

My bet of Saturday Editeur Du Gite in Newbury’s Game Spirit Chase is now a non-runner after having been found to have a low blood count on Thursday.

The Paul Nicholls horses haven’t been finishing of their races and even the trainer has been concerned about their well-being. He has four big fancies running at Newbury this afternoon so it’s either going to be a huge day for the trainer or a poor one.

Prepare yourself for long Saturday preview today. The reward for ploughing through it all is my betting advice which is at the end of the piece.

Newbury

Its good to soft but no rain is forecast to arrive before racing on Betfair Hurdle Day. The first race on the Newbury’s seven race card is a good one although its not on ITV.

1:15 – Betfair Cheltenham Roarcast Novices’ Limited Handicap Chase (Class 3) – 2m 7 ½ f

Just the six but it’s a fascinating little race and they do include top-weight and Grade 1 Novice chase winner Bravemansgame.  A best priced 7/2 for the Grade 1 Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase at next months Cheltenham Festival. He surely wins this, even off top weight, if he’s to win at Cheltenham. Deman won this as a novice but it was a level-weights race then and not a handicap. Yard form is a big worry though with Paul Nicholls just 1-32 in the past two weeks.

My National Hunt Chase ante post selection Pats Fancy is set to run. Now 2-3 over fences I think 3m on this sort of ground will be too short for the 7-year-old but I’m looking for a decent run from him with next month’s 3m 6f race in mind.

Grumpy Charlie and Fern Hill were first and second here in a 2m 6 ½ f handicap chase here 45-days ago. The winner jumped well that day and improved for the step up to 2m 6f last time. Up 7lb for that win. Today’s slightly longer trip will suit and he looks capable of winning more races. However, the ground was softer that day than likely here.

Fern Hill was 3 ¼ length behind Grumpy Charlie last time and gets a 3lb pull in the weights. Twice a winner over hurdles he will races over fences but like Grumpy Charlie faces different ground today.

1:50 – Daily Rewards With Betfair Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race) (Class 2) – 3m

Polish showed improved form to win this race last year. He’s back down to the same mark but the 7-year-old faced 15 rivals 12 months ago and benefitted from a fast run race when coming from behind that day. There’s not a lot of forecast pace today which means I’m looking elsewhere for the most likely winner.

The Brimming Water looked an improving handicap hurdler when taking advantage of last hurdle mistake by Unexpected Party at Wetherby two starts back. The runner-up has boosted the form since by comfortably winning at Ascot. Ran almost up to that level of form when a 5 ¼ length 3rd of 8 at Haydock three weeks ago. That was his first start at 3m and I wasn’t totally convinced about his stamina that day. However, he’s worth another try over it and today’s better ground.

Butler’s Brief won three times last spring. He’s been poor on both starts this season both over hurdles and last time on his chase debut. Ground will suit him and he’s surely better than he’s been able to show this season. However, there a big question about his well-being.

Coeur De Lion, a high-class staying handicapper on the flat winning the Ascot Stakes at Royal Ascot in 2020 and 4^th in last year’s Chester Cup. Not as good over hurdles as on the level but has dropped down to mark he can run well off and the ability to win a race like this.

2:25 – Betfair Denman Chase (Grade 2) – 2m 7 ½

Paul Nicholls saddles double King George VI Chase winner Clan Des Obeaux who bids to go one better in the race than 12 months ago. Runner-up in this season’s King George.  If a fully fit version of the horse turns up, he should win this.

The best of Clan Des Obeaux’s four rivals is recent Haydock winner Royale Pagaille. He needs to win this be a serious contender for next month’s Gold Cup. The track will suit and his jumping won’t be tested to much here but I’m not sure if he’s effective on good to soft as he does softer.

Imperial Aura must show he’s as effective over 3m as he is shorter. However, he was in the process of running a big race when falling in the Betfair Chase at Haydock two starts back. If he has stood up there’s a good chance, he would have finished ahead of Royale Pagaille that day. A small field suits but he’s not completed on his last four starts which is a concern. A definite in with a chance if bouncing back to something like his best.

It will be interesting to see how former Ladbroke Trophy winner De Rasher Counter fares of 489-day break and he looks one to note for the future should he come through it ok.

3:00 – Betfair Exchange Game Spirit Chase (Grade 2) – 2m ½ f

With Editeur Du Gite out there are just four runners set to meet the starter. Still its an interesting race with three serious contenders.  Last year’s winner Sceau Royal returns to fences for the first time over fences since finishing fifth in last season’s Champion Chase at Cheltenham. Twice a winner over hurdles in the autumn. The drying ground is very much in his favour and he will be tough to beat.

Hitman, another of the Nicholls horses, is a progressive 2m chaser who put in a career best effort last time when runner-up to stablemate Greaneteen in the Grade 1 Tingle Creek at Sandown last time. Given his age he’s capable of better over fences.

Funambule Sivola runner-up in the Grade 2 Peterborough Chase at Huntingdon on his seasonal return before seemingly failing to stay 2m 4f, under a big weight, on soft ground at Cheltenham on New Year’s Day. Much better dropped back to 2m when battling on to win a good ground handicap under 11-12 at Doncaster last time. That was a career best effort from the 7-year-old who isn’t out of this on going he’s effective on and a yard that remains in great form.

3:35 – Betfair Hurdle (Handicap) (Grade 3) – 2m ½ f

Just the 14 runners for a historic handicap hurdle which in the past two years has attracted 23 runners last year and 24 in 2020.

It’s a race that has been dominated in recent years by five- & six-year-olds. Novices also have an excellent record in the race.

Most of the big names have stood their ground for what looks a open looking renewal despite the small field with a half of the field having posted their best RPR’s on their last runs over the smaller obstacles.

Top-weight Soaring Glory bids for back-to-back wins in the race. He’s 14lb higher than 12 months ago but showed his well-being with a decisive win at Ascot in October, off 4lb lower. Hasn’t been seen to best effect in small field races on his last two starts. Must have a chance of retaining his crown on ground that will suit.

Fifty Ball hasn’t taken to chasing this season and returns to hurdling here. The 7-year-old was a useful handicap hurdler last season and was a 3-length 2^nd of 23 to Soaring Glory in last year’s race. Gets to race of the same mark here and is 14lb better off with Soaring Glory. Trainer Gary Moore has won this 3 times since 2007. He’s another who fails the trends but looks to have good each way claims.

Moore has another possible in Royaume Uni. The 5-year-old has plenty of experience in handicap company. Comfortably winning at Plumpton in October before a personal best and good effort when a 4 ¼ length third of 12 to Lively Citizen at Cheltenham in December. Not disgraced when an 11-length 3rd of 11 to First Street at Kempton last time. Prefers a sounder surface so probably wasn’t quite at his best at Kempton.

Glory & Fortune finished a neck and one place in front of Soaring Glory when a 2 ¼ length 2^nd of 5 to Epatante in the Grade 1 Christmas Hurdle. He’s another seven-year-old though and he’s run in ten handicaps.

Broomfield Burg produced a useful turn of foot to see off four rivals in a Kempton novice hurdle in December. Prior to that the 6-year-old had shaped like a well handicapped horse when a 1 ½ length 2^nd of 12 to Lively Citizen at Cheltenham.

First Street, a stablemate of Broomfield Burg, made it 3-4 over hurdles when comfortably winning on his handicap hurdle debut at Kempton last month. He’s been raised 9lb for that win but is going the right way and may capable of even better.

Jpr One has progressed with each of his three starts over hurdles. Last time out five-year-old ran away with a 2m 3f novice hurdle at Taunton. In the process looking a very useful hurdling prospect. Should continue to progress and won’t be inconvenienced by the drop back to 2m. Could be on a good mark for his handicap debut.

Paul Nicholls has a lively contender in Knappers Hill. Three from three in bumpers, including a Grade 2 bumper at Aintree on Grand National Day. A winner of his first two starts over hurdles. He lost his unbeaten record when a 5 ½ length 3^rd of 5 to Jonbon in a Grade 2 at Ascot last time. That was a career best over hurdles and he can’t be discounted on his handicap debut.

No Metier here because of the drying ground so Harry Fry relies on Boothill. Despite being a 7-year-old he’s only had four starts under rules, two of them over hurdles. Won his sole start at Taunton last season and made a highly encouraging return from a 324-day absence when a 2 ½ length 3^rd of 14 to Soaring Glory at Ascot in October. A beaten odds-on favourite for his chase debut last time and returns to hurdles here. Gets 4lb from Soaring Glory here and is capable of better.

Jetoile fails the age trend being a seven-year-old but he’s a novice on his handicap debut. Built on the promise of his hurdle debut by winning at Chepstow & Leicester. Before finishing a respectable 12 length runner-up to Supreme Novices favourite Constitution Hill in the Tolworth Hurdle. Likely won’t get his own way in front here but his form entitles him to go very close and there may be more to come.

Verdict: There are some strong race trends that favour the younger horses and less exposed hurdlers. However, I wouldn’t be totally surprised if this race produces a “trends buster”. Of the more experienced handicappers a strong pace will suit last year’s winner Soaring Glory and I’m expecting a good run at big odds from Royaume Uni. If you like Soaring Glory you must have the unexposed Boothill high on the shortlist. Of the novices I like the Henderson pair Broomfield Burg & First Street. Jetoile looks to have been forgotten about in the betting and Constitution Hill’s Supreme backers will be hoping for a good run from him, Jpr One and Knappers Hill are other novices who could be ahead of their marks for their handicap debuts.

Warwick

Three races live from Warwick on ITV this afternoon. The feature races have attracted just eight runners between them. It’s good to soft at Newbury and again little rain is forecast before the start of racing.

1:35 – Virgin Bet Warwick Mares’ Hurdle (Listed Race) – 2m 5f

Just the four runners and there doesn’t look to be much in the way of any pace unless Whitehotchillifili goes from the front dropped back in trip from last time.

On RPR’s there’s just 1lb between the front two in the betting Indefatigable and Marie’s Rock. The former must give the latter 6lb but she’s classy on her day and won this in 2020.

Marie’s Rock can be keen in her races and got hampered at the second and was pulled up in the Lanzarote Hurdle last time. She’s better than that performance and getting weight from Indefatigable is entitled to go close if her jockey gets her settled.

2:05 – Virgin Bet Kingmaker Novices’ Chase (Grade 2) – 2m

Just the four here but you can make claims for three of them and it looks a cracker of a renewal. Edwardstone now favourite for the Arkle Novices Chase, bids for a four time over fences. A winner of novice chase over C&D in November. He’s since gone onto success in the Grade 1 Henry VIII Novices’ Chase at Sandown and then comfortably won the Grade 2 Wayward Lad Novices Chase under a penalty at Kempton over Christmas.

It won’t be a walk in the park for Edwardstone though. Third Time Lucki won his first two starts over fences before doing to much out in front when a well beaten third behind Edwardstone in the Henry VIII. Jumped much better when easily seeing off two rivals in a Grade 2 at Doncaster two weeks ago. Was said to have suffered a slight overreach after his Doncaster success but he’s out quickly here.  Remains a potential Grade 1 horse and I would expect him to get closer to Edwardstone than he did at Sandown.

Improving 2m handicap chaser Brave Seasca has 14lb to find with Edwardstone on official ratings but does get 5lb from him here. The 7-year-old is 3-4 over fences and made it 2-2 over C&D when comfortably seeing off Sky Pirate by seven lengths last month. A best priced 12/1 with bet365 for the Grand Annual handicap Chase at the Cheltenham Festival. A race I think he can go close in. However, given his progressive profile he looks worth a go in graded company.

3:15 – Virgin Bet Warwick Castle Handicap Chase – 2m 4f

Not the best race of the day but it’s a competitive handicap chase and we have good sized field of 11 runners. Plenty of exposed handicappers and a couple of unexposed types.

Lieutenant Rocco looked a useful novice chaser and jumping well when winning over an extended 2m 7f at Ffos Last in February.  Off the track for almost 12 months when pulled up behind Two For Gold in the Fleur De Lys Chase at Lingfield. Once again, he jumped well and was still there four out before a lack of race fitness too its toll and he quickly folded. He’s had his issues but has plenty of ability.

Cheddleton 2-7 over fences. The 7-year-old has placed on all three starts this season and is running well. First start beyond 2m 2f for him but if he stays won’t be far away again but probably needs the extra distance to eke out some improvement from his present mark.

Jacamar a winner at Kempton two starts back posted a career best on RPR’s when 5^th of 10 at Cheltenham two weeks ago. He remains in form. This track will suit him better than Cheltenham but need to jump better than he did last time.

Irish raider Dinny Lacey must be of interest although his best Irish form has come on testing ground.  One from ten over fences, that win coming in a Limerick novice chase in December 2020.  The 8-year-old put in a career best on RPR’s when a 2-length 3rd of 14 to Spyglass Hill back at Limerick over Christmas. The first-time blinkers had the desired effect that day. Now 6lb higher but if the headgear continues to work, he has place claims.

Celebre D’Allen, trained by Philip Hobbs, looked fairly treated on his French chase. Off for 783-days he made a winning stable debut for Hobbs over hurdles at Haydock in December before improving again when following up 29-days later back at the same venue.  Interesting back over the larger obstacles today but his best form in France come on testing ground and both this season’s Haydock wins were gained on heavy going. Today’s quicker ground asks another question of him. Has a big chance if he does handle it.

Our Power is one of the least exposed in the field over fences and made it 2-4 over the larger obstacles when beating three rivals at Huntingdon last month. He beat Jacamar by a head at Wincanton in December but is 3lb worse off here. Up 2lb for his latest success but he’s ground versatile and going the right way over fences. 

Riders Onthe Storm would be a well handicapped horse on his best back form (Grade 1 Chase winner at Ascot in February 2020). The 9-year seemed to lose his way when with Nigel Twiston-Davies last season. Looked to have returned to form in the first-time tongue tie on his first start for Richard Hobson when a 3 ¼ length 2^nd of 10 to Clan Legend at Aintree.  Sadly, went backwards from his Aintree effort when a well beaten 12^th of 16 at Cheltenham on New Year’s Day.  Hard to say which horse will turn up here and the yard are struggling for winners.

Verdict: Cheddleton is consistent and shouldn’t be far away again. Celebre D’Allen is interesting back over fences but the ground would be a slight concern. Out Power is going the right way over fences and is only 2lb for his recent success. Riders Onthe Storm needs to bounce back from a poor run last time but is on a good mark. Add in Irish raider Dinny Lacey and Lieutenant Rocco, who given his good jumping could be well suited by the track, and you have the makings of an interesting handicap.

Betting Advice:

Newbury

2:25 – 1pt win – Imperial Aura – 5/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

3:35 – 1pt win – Jetoile – 12/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes and 0.5pts each way – Royaume Uni -22/1 @ Coral (paying 4 places 1/5 odds)

Warwick

2:05 – 1pt win – Brave Seasca – 11/2 @ Bet365 & Coral

3:15 – 1pt each way – Lieutenant Rocco – 12/1 @ Coral (paying 4 places 1/5 odds) and 1pt win – Cheddleton – 15/2 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportbook

Cheers

John

Hi all,

Running late this morning. I have selections are from Kempton, Bangor and Meydan for you today.

Kempton

4:05 – Smarty Wild’s sole chase win came here over an extended 2m 4 ½ f last January and he posted a near career best effort when a 2-length 2^nd of 8 over C&D last month. He’s down to a winnable mark and seemed to show that stays 3m last time. A slightly better price than I expected and should go well dropped a notch in class here.

Ami Debois is on a losing run that dates back to December 2017 but he’s put in plenty of good performances in the meantime. None more so than when a 1 ¼ length 2^nd of 11 to Double Shuffle (who also runs here) over C&D last January. Got a fine front running ride that day and but for a couple of mistakes at the last fences would probably have held onto win.  Down the field and likely in need of the run when 6^th of 10 at Chepstow in December. Big price here but the 12-year-old is weighted to go close if in good shape today.

Double Shuffle love it around Kempton. Three of his best four RPR’s have come over C&D and they don’t include last year’s success here. The 11-year-old has looked a bit laboured on his three starts this season including when a well beaten fifth in the race that Smarty Wild finished runner-up. The ground might have been softer than ideal last time and hopes are pinned on today’s sounder surface and the application of the first time cheekpieces reviving his fortunes.

Bangor

2:30 – No Rematch takes a drop-in class after pulling up in the Classic Chase at Warwick last month. That’s now two none competitions this season for the 8-year-old. He looks nicely treated on last season’s best chase form. The ground will suit and he should stay the trip but does need to bounce back.

Behindthelines got outpaced in the back straight when a 6 ½ length 3^rd of 7 at Ayr last time. That was over 3m and he stayed on all the way to the line. Shaped like he needs a marathon trip so the step up to 3m 5f should suit.

At the prices the value could be Ecossais. A five-time winner over the larger obstacles. The 8-year-old put in a seasonal best when a 3-length 2^nd of 6 at Fakenham in December. He seemed to stay 3m 5f that day and is now down to his last winning mark.

Meydan

There’s a good six race card at the Winter Carnival today.

2:35 – Alignak a useful performer when trained by Sir Michael Stoute, won a Listed race at Chepstow in September 2020. Looks to be steadily hitting form for new trainer Jamie Osbourne and has run well on both his starts in Meydan this year, including when a 5 ½ length 2^nd of 12 over 1m 6f two weeks ago. Would have finished closer that day but was slowly away and was forced wide on the turn. Jockey Saffie Osborne couldn’t claim 5lb last time which she can today and this could well have been the plan for the 6-year-old. Expected to go close despite the drop back to 1m 4f.

3:45 – Pierre Lapin looked a smart prospect as a juvenile when trained by Roger Varian winning his first two starts including the Group 2 Mill Reef Stakes at Newbury. Now with Adrian McGuiness he’s hasn’t matched his 2-year-old form since but was a 3-length 4^th of 16 in a valuable 7f at Leopardstown in September. Struggled on his first start here when 9^th of 14 but that was over 6f. That was his first start since October so was entitled to the need run last time. Not weighted out of this and can get into the money.

4:55 – Last year’s winner Lord Glitters will be popular choice here and if he gets a good gallop won’t be far away in his bid for back to successes. However, preference is for Bedouin’s Story to bounce back from a below par run here three weeks ago. Last year’s Cambridgeshire winner was subjected to hard race by jockey Frankie Dettori that day when he realized this mount couldn’t win. Like Lord Glitters he needs a good pace to chase but if he gets it better expected from the 7-year-old who’s trainer has saddled the winner of this race five times since 2013.

Betting Advice:

Kempton

4:05 – 0.5pts each way – Ami Debois  – 28/1 @ Bet365 (paying 3 places 1/5 odds) and 0.5pts win Double Shuffle – 14/1 @ Bet365

Bangor

2:30 – 1pt win – Ecossais – 7/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

Meydan

2:35 – 1pt win – Alignak – 9/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

3:45 – 0.5pts each way – Pierre Lapin – 33/1 @ Bet365 (paying 4 places 1/5 odds)

4:55 – 1pt win – Bedouin’s Story – 11/1 @ William Hill & Sky Bet

Cheers

John

Hi all,

I have another Cheltenham festival ante post selection for you today in the latest instalment of my “Path To Cheltenham” series. Plus, I have a few fancies on Thursday and hopefully one or two of them can go one place better than Kashi did at Fairyhouse yesterday.

Path To Cheltenham

There are just five Thursdays until the start of the Cheltenham Festival and, after the weekend’s Dublin Racing Festival, I’m no firmly in festival mode. Today it’s my fifth Cheltenham ante post selection.

Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle

The three miles the Albert Bartlett is the longest distance of the three novice hurdles at the festival. Past winners of the races include Bobs Worth, Unowhatimeanharry, Penhill, Monkfish and last season’s Gold Cup Winner Minella Indo.

I put up The Real Whacker in last Tuesday’s tracker piece after his recent run at Doncaster. Looking at his Albert Bartlett entry I said that “there will be worse 66/1 pokes at the festival”. Not sure if anyone had a nibble on him for the race but the 66/1 available with Coral & Ladbrokes has now gone and he’s a best priced 40/1 for the race.  

You had to be impressed with Minella Crooner’s run in the 2m 6f novice hurdle at the Dublin Racing Festival.

A winner over 3m at Punchestown. The drop back to 2m 6f wasn’t ideal for the 6-year-old. He was slightly outpaced two out when the leader quickened the pace but kept on well to finish runner-up. He’s going the right way. The distance of the race will suit him but does need to improve his jumping.

It looked an ideal prep run for Cheltenham. Mind you that performance hasn’t been lost on punters. He’s been well backed for the Albert Bartlett over the last few days and is now a best priced 5/1 with Coral & Ladbrokes.

Falcon Eight

Falcon Eight, trained by Dermot Weld, has come on to my radar for the race. Now in the ownership of Dr Ronan Lambe who who’s has had a few big winners at the Cheltenham Festival. Off the top of my head Lord Windermere (RSA 2013 & Gold Cup 2014); Silver Concorde (Champion Bumper 2014); Windsor Park (Ballymore 2015) and Spring Heeled (Kim Muir 2014). He hasn’t had many runners at the festival in recent season which makes Falcon Eight of interest.

A smart performer on the flat won a 2m Listed race at Sandown in 2019 and took advantage of handy mark to win last season’s Chester Cup. He didn’t jump particularly on his hurdles debut when only 5^th of 9 at Leopardstown over Christmas. However, that was a promising enough effort on ground that would have been plenty soft enough for him. He goes well on a sound surface but did win the Chester Cup on good to soft. He wouldn’t really want it worse than the ground that he faced at Chester.

The 7-year-old runs at Thurles today in a 2m 7f Maiden hurdle. If he wins as connections will be hoping. Then he will be heading across the Irish Sea for the race. I backed him earlier in the week. He’s now a best priced 33/1 which is still fair. Mind you the bet could go down this afternoon.

Now Thurles wouldn’t be a track you would associate with producing Cheltenham Festival winners. However, looking at the stats. Those horses whose previous run was a Thurles have produced 7 winners from 45 runners. With last time winners being 5 winners from 20 runners +8.5 since 2016.

1pt each way – Falcon Eight – 33/1 @ Bet365 (NRNB).

Thursday Racing

I have a couple of selections from Huntingdon and two from Doncaster today.

Huntingdon

3:10 – The days’ feature race the Listed Sidney Banks Memorial Novices’ Hurdle. A race won by Shishkin in 2020 before going on to win the Supreme at Cheltenham.

Harbour Lake has won both his start over hurdles starts, both at Wetherby, He’s got a bit to find with market leaders with Wonderwall and Elle Est Belle on official ratings. However, he looks a good prospect who should be suited by the step up to 2m 3 ½ f.

1pt win – Harbour Lake – 7/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

3:45 – A chance is taken with Wilde About Oscar who hit form around this time last year winning at Exeter and Uttoxeter in March. Granted he hasn’t beaten a rival on his two starts this season but has had a breathing operation since last time. Now 1lb below his last winning mark, if he bounces back to last year’s best, he would win this.

1pt win – Wilde About Oscar – 5/1 – Gen

Doncaster

2:10 – Clondaw Pretender returned to form when a ¼ length 2nd of 6 at Leicester. He’s only had four starts over fences so he could be capable of better for the step up to 3m over the larger obstacles. Minella Examiner won this race last year off 5lb higher. He hasn’t fired on three starts this season but the first-time visor replaces the cheekpieces and he’s on a winnable mark of he revives for the new headgear.

1pt win – Clondaw Pretender – 13/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

1pt win – Minella Examiner – 7/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

Cheers

John

Hi all,

I’m back in the saddle today with selections from Ludlow, Fairyhouse and Kempton.

Ludlow

2:30 – Having jumped off Le Milos at Sandown on Saturday only to watch him make all to win at 12/1. I’m now drawn to his stablemate Tight Call here. He was jumping adequately out in front before a couple of bad mistakes, put him on the back foot at Exeter on his chase debut in November. He’s capable of better than that. Back from an 80-day absence here but has gone extremely well fresh in the past. The 8-year-old a four-time winner including here in November 2020. All those wins have come on good, good to firm ground. However, he seemed to handle soft ground well enough when a neck 2nd of 11 at Uttoxeter in March so good to soft should be fine. Still I’m hoping the track doesn’t receive more rain than expected.

1pt win – Tight Call – 9/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

Fairyhouse

1:15 – An interesting 2m 5f handicap chase. John Adams who had unseated his rider on his previous starts finally got it together in the jumping stakes when winning at Punchestown last time. Up 9lb for that success but lightly raced over fences and if his jumping holds up he could go in again.

Exit To The West was a 7 ½ length behind John Adams in second. She’s 7lb better off with the winner and has finished runner-up on her last two starts over fences. There shouldn’t be much between the pair and today’s drop back in trip might suit her slightly better. Yard has its runners in excellent form.

Conquredalofeurope put in his best effort over fences at the fourth attempt when a ½-length 2nd of 15 handicap chase debut over C&D. Up 3lb for that effort but a stronger run race will suit. The first-time blinkers replace the cheekpieces today and the 7-year-old looks capable of better.

Jacksons Gold lets us down on his handicap chase debut at Naas. Dropped into the rear at the start his jumping could have been better and he could never get into the race although he did make a bit headway to finish 8^th. I think he’s better than he was able to show last time and he’s nicely treated on his progressive novice handicap hurdle last spring.

1pt win – Conquredalofeurope – 9/2 – Gen

1pt win – Jacksons Gold – 7/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

4:15 – Dancing Jeremy didn’t beat much when winning on his chase/yard debut at Cork last month. Clearly in good heart and in form. Back over the smaller obstacles today and has a 12lb lower mark than over fences to exploit.

Barncroft, trained by Gordon Elliott,put in his best effort when 3^rd of 20 in Naas maiden hurdle last time and must be respected on his handicap debut.

Better Times Ahead was prominent in the betting when 27 lengths 6th of 21 in a Punchestown maiden last month. Not given a hard race at Naas and looks the sort to step up on his previous efforts now going handicapping and stepping up to 2m4f. His trainer Robert Tyner has his team in excellent shape.

Difficult Decision 2-14 over hurdles bounced back from two poor efforts over fences when ¾-length 2nd of 12 in a Punchestown beginners’ chase 24-days ago. The 9-year-old was strong at the finish last time. That was his best effort since finishing a 2 ½ length 2^nd of 16 at Thurles back in March. Back over hurdles today with Shane Fitzgerald taking off a handy 5lb again. May be better over a little further than 2m 4f but a reproduction of his Thurles effort would see him thereabouts.

Kashi steadily progressive since dropping back to 2m and was only beaten a short head here two starts back. Before falling at the 4^th at Gowran Park 13-days ago. Step up 2m 4f on soft ground is a bit of a concern but he remains capable of winning a race like this provided confidence hasn’t been dented by his latest mishap.

1pt win – Kashi – 10/1 @ Bet365

0.5pts each way – Difficult Decision – 20/1 @ Bet365 (paying 4 places ¼ odds)

Kempton

8:00 – A much lower-class race than I would normally consider but I’m happy to take a couple to smaller stakes here.  Fred Bear & El Paco were third and fourth respectively here over 1m 4f last month. Fred Bear ran a personal best on the flat that day. The 4-year-old was outpaced 3f but made good head headway to finish third and earned the “eyecatcher” comment from the Raceform analyst. He wasn’t in the same form 24-hours later when 9^th of 11 dropped back to 1m 2f. A winning hurdler he looks worth another chance stepped up to 2m. El Paco was also doing his best work at the finish when ¾ length behind Fred Bear last time. Stall 13 isn’t ideal but his latest was a career best and the step up to 2m looks worth exploring.

0.5pts win – Fred Bear – 14/1 @ Bet365

0.5pts win – El Paco – 14/1 @ Bet365

Cheers

John

Hi all,

As I kind of expected we didn’t have a great day yesterday.

Dunvegan landed the ante post each way when finishing runner-up Chacun Pour Soi in the Dublin Chase

Coming to the last I thought Magic Tricks was going to finally land a valuable handicap hurdle but stablemate Call Me Lyreen swooped late on the outside to land the first price leaving Magic Tricks to occupy the runner-up spot.  Still, it’s been a great start to the month.

There won’t be any selections for the service until Wednesday at the earliest and looking at the advanced cards it could be Saturday before there are any. However, as ever watch your inboxes for updates.  

On Thursday do look out for another in my ‘Path to Cheltenham’ Series which will include a further ante post selection for the festival.

Good luck with your Monday bets.

Cheers

John

Hi all,

What a fantastic day’s racing yesterday. Made all the sweeter by having three winning selections. There was a frustrating aspect to the day though. The races I spent most time on didn’t produce the goods.

I’m not expecting things to go as well on Sunday on what looks a tough punting day at the Dublin Racing Festival with three tricky big field handicaps in addition, of course to the four Grade 1’s. It’s also day two of Scottish Cheltenham Trials Weekend at Musselburgh.

Once again, I’m concentrating on Leopardstown and like yesterday I have had look at all the races at the Dublin Racing Festival.  Today’s betting advice follows at the end of this preview.

Leopardstown

12:45 – Irish Stallion Farms EBF Paddy Mullins Mares Handicap Hurdle (Grade B) – 2m 1 ½ f

Gordon Elliott has a couple of big contenders in likely favourite Party Central and Glan. Party Central won a Listed mare’s bumper last Spring on her final start last season. Two from three over hurdles this season she put in a career best last time when winning a mare’s Listed hurdle at Punchestown in December. That success came over 2 ½ f than today’s race but the way she travelled through the race suggested she won’t be inconvenienced by the drop in trip. A mark of 121 looks lenient for handicap hurdle and she’s the one to beat.

Glan is 1-4 over hurdles, winning a good ground Fairyhouse maiden in October (2m 2f). Not disgraced but not quite at her best when 3^rd of 7 in a Grade 3 at Down Royal later that month. Back to form effort when a neck second of 18 to Gua du Large on handicap debut back at Fairyhouse in November. Doing her best work at the finish today’s extra 1 ½ f should suit and she’s now proven in a big field handicap scenario. Might not want the ground to get too soft but looks capable of bold show here.

One who does like a bit of juice in the ground is Stand Up Lucy. The 8-year-old is more experienced than the Elliott pair and did finish one place ahead of Glan at Down Royal. Steadily progressive over hurdles she was 4 lengths and two places behind Glan at Fairyhouse last time. Two longer trip looks a plus and she won’t be far away at the finish.

Verdict: Gordon Elliott has a strong hand here with Party Central and Glan. Of the rest Stand Up Lucy has been running well this season and has each way claims.

1:20 – Ladbrokes Novice Chase (Grade 1) – 2m 5 ½ f

There are three Grade 1 winning novice chasers in Master McShee, Fury Road and Beacon Edge among the eight runners it’s a beginners’ chase winner Galopin Des Champs who is a best priced 4/7 favourite for the race. It’s not difficult see why though after his all the way win on his chase debut. It was performance that marked him down as a future Gold Cup winner. Whilst I think he will win he is a very short price and if all the eight runners stand their ground their ground there’s an opportunity for each way punters.

Verdict: Galopin Des Champs shouldn’t be as short in the betting as he is but is price is based on potential. I think he wins. However, with eight runners there’s an opportunity for an each-way bet. This trip might be on the short side for Fury Road. Master McShee will like an ease in the ground and won here over hurdles last season. This looks like Beacon’s Edge’s trip over fences and the first time cheekpieces are an interesting addition and the Noel Meade yard have won this twice since 2015.

1:55 – Ladbrokes Dublin Chase (Grade 1) – 2m 1f

Chacun Pour Soi bids for the hat trick. The 10-year-old was a bitterly disappointing 8/13 favourite when well beaten in the Tingle Creek at Sandown on his seasonal reappearance last time. Needs to bounce back from that below par effort but his form figures at Leopardstown are 2111. If he’s back to last season’s best he wins. The 4/5 available with bet365 on Friday evening looks value to me.

I tipped Dunvegan earlier in the week each way at 12/1 (three places) and with just five now runningI will be bitterly disappointed if he can’t get in to the first three.

Verdict:  A back to form Chacun Pour Soi wins this.

2:25 – Bulmers Secret Orchard Leopardstown Handicap Chase (Grade A) – 2m 5 ½ f

The handicaps get harder with 18 declared for this valuable handicap chase with €73,750 on offer to the winner.

Blackbow heads the ante post betting after 3 ¼ length 2nd of 12 to Dunvegan in Dan Moore Memorial Handicap Chase at Fairyhouse last time. He’s up 5lb for that effort and has a big chance if his stamina holds out.

Birchdale has been the gamble of the race. The 8-year-old shaped well when 8 ½ lengths 6th of 28 to School Boy Hours in Paddy Power Chase (3m) here last time. The application of the first time cheekpieces had the desired effect as he travelled well before his stamina ran out after the last. The drop in trip looks a good move.

The Shunter in the same colours as Birchdale. The 9-year-old had a great 2020-21 season over fences and hurdles. A shade unlucky when unlucky when a 4 ¾ length 4th of 22 to Royal Rendezvous in Galway Plate last time. I wonder whether he’s been aimed at the festival?

Fakir D’alene made it 2-3 over fences when beating seven rivals on handicap chase debut at Thurles 14-days ago. The fitting of the blinkers has been a positive and there was plenty to like about his jumping and his attitude at the finish last time. Up 5lb for his Thurles success and open to further improvement over fences.  

Max Flamingo an improving handicap hurdler last spring had been running well in beginners chases this season before finishing a respectable 18 ¼ lengths 4^th of 8 to Fury Road in the Grade 1 Neville Hotels Novices’ Chase here over 3m last time. Interesting on his handicap chase debut but does need to improve on what he’s shown so far.

Gallant John Joe has been backed this week in the ante post market. Did well on his three starts when sent novice chasing two seasons back. The 9-year-old was off for 22 months before finishing 4^th to Ferny Hollow in a Grade 1 here at Christmas and the fifth of 8 to Bob Olinger at Punchestown. Looked like he was still need of the run last time and better expected on his handicap debut.

Ten Ten ended last season with a couple of personal best efforts in valuable handicap chases at Naas and Punchestown. Seems ground versatile and although both those efforts came over 3m he’s equally effective over shorter. Ran like the run was needed when pulling up at Limerick over Christmas. He remains capable of landing a decent pot when all the cards fall right.

Rebel Gold was travelling like the most likely winner when coming down three out at Gowran Park two starts back. He showed no ill effects from that fall when a ½ length 2^nd of 14 at Limerick (Ten Ten pulled up) last time. The handicapper has raised him 3lb for that run but he should remain competitive.

Winter Escape was an 11-length 3^rd of 11 to yesterday’s Irish Gold Cup Winner Conflated two starts back and wasn’t disgraced when a 10 ½ lengths 5th of 14 to Grange Walk when dropped back to 2m 1f here last time. He likes a bit of cut in the ground and is 3lb below his last winning mark.

Samcro isn’t the horse he once was and was last of 8 in the Grade 1 Savills Chase here at Christmas. Last season was a total write off although he did manage to win a Grade 3 at Killarney in May. He’s 1-1 in February won the Grade 1 2m novice hurdle here in 2018. Davy Russell since to such good effect in yesterday’s big race is back in the saddle for the first time since the pair won the Grade 1 Marsh Novices Chase at the 2020 Cheltenham Festival. The 10-year-old makes his handicap debut here and maybe the drop-in class may see him return to form. You couldn’t totally dismiss it.

3:00 – Chanelle Pharma Irish Champion Hurdle (Grade 1) – 2m

I’m hoping that my Champion Hurdle each way selection Saint Roi runs well to keep that bet alive. Zanahiyr is getting better with racing. Still, it’s hard to look beyond Honeysuckle who goes for the race hat trick. She’s unbeaten on 13 starts under rules and bids for a tenth Grade 1 success.

Verdict: I can’t really look beyond Honeysuckle here who can win her tenth Grade 1 contest.

3:35 – Tattersalls Ireland Novice Hurdle (Grade 1) – 2m

Appreciate It won this last year on the way to winning the Supreme Novices Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival.  This is a race that trainer Willie Mullins has dominated and he aims for his ninth success in the race since 2013. He has four of the nine declared runners, The pick seems to be Champion Bumper winner Sir Gerhard is the ante post favourite who made all to win over C&D on his hurdles debut over Christmas. He jumped well that day and a win here will enhance his Supreme Novices claims.  Stablemate El Fabiolo made a winning start for Willie Mullins at Thurles on New Year’s Day. The 5-year-old probably didn’t beat much for his 15-length success but he’s an exciting hurdler who will win more races this season and could be a Grade 1 horse. The likes of Three Stripe Life runner-up to stablemate Mighty Potter in a Grade 1 over C&D at Christmas and My Mate Mozzie who would have won the Grade 1 Royal Bond last time but for making a bad mistake at the last have better hurdles form than Sir Gerhard but don’t have the potential he has.

Verdict: It could be a very big day for Willie Mullins and I think Sir Gerhard can enhance his Supreme claims with a win here. Stablemate El Fabiolo also has untapped potential over hurdles and could be the one to chase Sir Gerhard home.

4:10 – Liffey Handicap Hurdle (Grade B) – 2m

Twenty-eight runners and arguably the most competitive race of the whole Dublin Racing Festival. I love races like this. I managed cut the field down to 13 contenders and I still may not have found the winner.

Carrarea has improved for going handicapping on his last two starts. A personal best from the 5-year-old when a solid 6 ¾ lengths 3rd of 12 to Metier in handicap hurdle at Lingfield 16-days ago.

Broomfields Jeremy beat Carrarea by a head when last seen in action at Fairyhouse in November. The runner-up has improved since and that race came over 2m 4f. He’s up 6lb but can’t be ruled provided the ground isn’t to soft.

Cask Mate twice a winner over hurdles in the Autumn of 2020 before finishing a 1 ½ length 2^nd of 7 in the Grade 1 Royal Bond Novice Hurdle at Fairyhouse. Won on the flat at Bellewstown in September before finishing an 8-length 2nd of 5 to Zanahiyr in a Garde 2 at Down Royal last time in October. Lightly raced for his age and interesting on his handicap debut for a yard that won this in 2017.

Magic Tricks normally runs well in these big field handicaps without winning. Runner-up at Down Royal two starts back before a career best effort when a 2-length 3rd of 18 to Gua du Large in handicap at Fairyhouse last time. Nudged up 2lb for that effort but Shane Fitzgerald takes off a handy 5lb which negates the weight rise. Should be bang there if in the same form as last time.

Get My Drift put in a career best when an 8 ¾ length 3rd of 18 to Brides Hill on handicap hurdle debut over C&D last time. Might prefer softer ground but looks like he’s on a competitive mark.

Surprise Package finished 1 ¼ length and one place in front of Get My Drift last time. There shouldn’t be much between the pair again. The 6-year-old was doing his best work at the finish and a more strongly run will suit him.  

Wouldn’t You Agree finished ½ length in front of Visionarian in a Grade B handicap hurdle at Killarney in August and improved again in defeat when a 1 ¼ length 3rd of 18 to Dysart Diamond at Listowel in September. Up 2lb and can go close if fully tuned up after a break. Might prefer slightly better ground. Visionarian a stablemate of Surprise Package wasn’t seen to best effect when an 8 ½ length 7^th of 18 to Gua du Large at Fairyhouse last time. He gets a 5lb pull from Wouldn’t You Agree and a strongly run 2m will suit the 7-year-old.

Gua Du Large put in a much-improved effort when winning at Fairyhouse last time. He was raised 6lb for that effort but given he’s only had seven starts over hurdles there could be more to come from the 7-year-old and he’s effective in the ‘hurly burly’ of a big field handicap.

Sea Ducar beat Galopin Des Champs in a Gowran Park novice hurdle in November 2020 with Get My Drift 3 lengths further back in third. Whilst I wouldn’t take that form to literally. He showed he a decent hurdler on his day when finishing a 5-length to Master McShee in a C&D handicap hurdle a month later. Returned from a six-month absence and should be all the better for his 18 ¾ lengths ninth of 18 to Brides Hill in the same race last time.

Add in last time out winners Mighty Tom and Autumn Evening. The former won a Thurles in December and is going the right way. Meanwhile the latter showed a good turn of foot to beat 4 rivals in a conditions hurdle at Fairyhouse 22-days ago. If he’s as effective in a strongly run big field scenario he should be in the mix.

Champagne Gold is back over hurdles today after two runs in chases this season. He was an excellent 1 ¼ length 2nd of 22 in this corresponding race last season, off 4lb lower, and must be respected if reproducing that performance here.

Arcadian Sunrise got bogged down in heavy ground when only 9^th of 18 in the November handicap at Naas. Prior to that 8-year-old had won a 2m handicap at York’s Ebor Festival. Back over hurdles for the first time since jumping well to beat 16 rivals at the Galway Festival. A strongly run 2m suits but he’s now 10lb higher than for his last success.

4:40 – Coolmore N.H. Sires Santiago Irish EBF Mares I.N.H. Flat Race (Grade 2) – 2m

Sixteen mares are set to meet the starter. The Willie Mullins trained Pink In The Park is the early bird favourite, The 5-year-old hasn’t been seen since making a winning racecourse debut at Listowel back in September. It was good to yielding when she won last time. It was impressive success and she looked a graded mare on the evidence of that run. Gordon Elliott saddled the winner of this race in 2020 and he has a couple of contenders in Bellatior who won a Naas bumper on her racecourse debut in November. She looks useful and gets the addition of the first-time hood here. Jamie Codd rode her that day but he’s on Harmonya Maker. The 5-year-old built on the promise of her racecourse debut 2^nd of 12 at Navan when comfortably beating beating 12 rivals at Punchestown on New Year’s Eve. She’s open to plenty more improvement, looks a high-class prospect, and could upset the short-priced favourite.

Verdict: This looks a Mullins versus Elliott race and I think the Elliott trained Harmonya Maker can get the better of the Mullins trained favourite Pink In The Park.

Musselburgh

Just the two selections on the Musselburgh card.

2:40 – Pertemps Network Group Handicap Hurdle (Pertemps Hurdle Series Qualifier) (Class 2) – 3m

Coastal World a winner of a Ballinrobe novice hurdle back in May. The 7-year-old has improved on both starts this season and was a good 7 ½ length 5th of 15 to Good Time Jonny in novice handicap hurdle at Leopardstown on his handicap debut at Christmas. He was doing his best work at the finish last time and is going the right way. His Ballinrobe victory came over 2m 6f there is a good chance he will today’s 3m trip.

3:15 – bet365 Scottish Champion Handicap Chase (For The Bowes-Lyon Trophy) (Class 3) – 2m

Lucky Flight isn’t the most consistent of handicap chasers but he’s run well on his last two starts and is now 5lb below his last winning mark. The 8-year-old was travelling as well as anything when making a mistake and unseating his rider two out at Kelso three days ago.  He’s flattered to deceive with his finishing effort in the past so he was no certainty to win but would surely have gone very close. Quick turnaround but provided his confidence hasn’t been dented by that mishap should give his backers a decent run for their money at what look decent odds.

Betting Advice:

Leopardstown

12:45 – 1pt win – Glan – 6/1 @ Bet365 and 0.5pts win – Stand Up Lucy – 11/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

1:20 – 0.5pts each way – Beacon Edge – 16/1 @ Bet365 (paying 3 places 1/5 odds)

2:25 – 1pt win – Fakir D’alene – 9/1 @ Bet365 & 0.5pts win – Ten Ten – 14/1 @ Bet365 & Ladbrokes and 0.5pts win – Rebel Gold – 14/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

4:10 – 0.5pts each way – Magic Tricks – 16/1 @ Bet365 (paying 6 places 1/5 odds) & 0.5pts each way – Surprise Package – 20/1 @ Bet365 (paying 6 places 1/5 odds) & 0.5pts win – Get My Drift – 12/1 @ Bet365 & Coral

Musselburgh

2:40 – 1pt win – Coastal World – 10/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

3:15 – 1pt win – Lucky Flight – 8/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

Cheers

John

Hi all,

All eyes on the Dublin Racing Festival this weekend with four Grade 1’s on the card and most of the races are likely to have an impact on the ante post betting for next months Cheltenham Festival.

The action this side of the Irish Sea is decent even if the field sizes for the ITV races haven’t really held up due to the lack of any significant recent rain.

On the weather front. I notice there has been a few subtle changes on rainfall this weekend. Sandown isn’t expecting more than trace. However, Musselburgh could see up to 10mm on Saturday which should help maintain its ground for the Sunday card. Meanwhile Leopardstown which has been putting on buckets of water to get some decent ground for the Dublin Racing Festival could receive up to 13mm of rain on Saturday and Sunday morning.

Today’s preview focuses on the Dublin Racing Festival and have I preview all seven races on the card. As ever my betting advice is at the bottom of the main piece.

Where else to begin but the Dublin Racing Festival. 

Leopardstown

1:05 – Nathaniel Lacy & Partners Solicitors Novice Hurdle (Grade 1) – 2m 6f

Hollow Games, finished a neck behind Grand Jury when third in a 2m 4f Grade 1at Naas last month. The pair re-oppose here but the first named is 9/4 and the latter a best priced 11/2. Both are open to further improvement for the step up to 2m 6f. Willie Mullins saddled last year’s winner Gaillard Du Mesnil and is represented by Bronn who made a winning start to his hurdle career when beating 17 rivals at Naas last month.  Takes a big step in distance here and is capable of further progress.

1:35 – Racing TV “12 Euros Per Month This Weekend Only” Spring Juvenile Hurdle (Grade 1) – 2m

Just the nine go to the post for a race that could have a big bearing on next months Triumph Hurdle.

Fil Dor is the second favourite for the Triumph and he comes into the race after winning his first three starts over hurdles since joining Gordon Elliott. The latest of those successes came in a Grade 2 over C&D over Christmas and he will take plenty of beating. Vauban a winner of a Listed race when trained in France was well backed to make a winning hurdle debut for Willie Mullins but he finished a ½ length 2^nd of 20 to Pied Piper at Punchestown. The winner impressed when winning at Cheltenham last Saturday. He could be open any amount of an improvement. Mullins also saddles Icare Allen who comfortably landed a juvenile hurdle over C&D on his stable debut in December and is another who is capable of more improvement.

2:10 – Patrick Ward & Co Solicitors Irish Arkle Novice Chase (Grade 1) – 2m 1f

Ferny Hollow is out for the season because of an injury but Willie Mullins has a strong hand in the 2m novice chase division. Indeed, he has three of the six declared runners: Blue Lord, Haut En Couleurs, Saint Sam. Blue Lord has won both his starts over fences and looks a worthy favourite. Haut En Couleurs looked a smart chasing prospect when beating two stablemates over C&D on his chase debut. Saint Sam was equally as impressive when beating nine rivals at Fairyhouse on his debut over fences at Fairyhouse last month. He’s another open to plenty of progress over the larger obstacles. The Gordon Elliott trained Riviere D’Etel won here first three starts over fences before finishing a 1 ½ length runner-up to Ferny Hollow in a C&D Grade 1 over Christmas. Her mares allowance puts her firmly in the mix although the Mullins trio are probably capable of more improvement.

2:40 – Paddy Power “I’d Love A Can But Pints Are Cheaper” Handicap Hurdle (Grade B) – 3m

A twenty-four-runner field and it looks a cracker of a race with a fair few who could be head of their marks. The four of the first five home in a Pertemps Qualifier Handicap Hurdle over C&D reoppose here.

Panda Boy made it 2-5 over hurdles when running out a 3 ¼ winner that day. The step up to 3m suited the 5-year-old who is unexposed as a staying hurdler. He’s been raised 8lb for that success but is going the right way.

He will do well to confirm form with the third Futurum Regem who gets 6lb from Panda Boy for a 4 ¼ length beating. He’s another inform handicap hurdler who shouldn’t be far away again.

A Great View was 4^th in that race.  He came further back that day and is handicapped to go get closer to both Panda Boy and Futurum Regem today. The 10-year-old finished 3^rd in this race in 2020, off 10lb higher and has each way claims.

Dunboyne was 1 length behind A Great View in 5^th. He was the eyecatcher of the race, given he didn’t get the best of passages on the home turn and I put him up for the Pertemps Final at Cheltenham after that run.

Unexpected Depth was returning from an 8-month absence when a 14 ½ length ninth to Panda Boy last time. He wasn’t best placed that day and wasn’t knocked about after the last. Will be sharper with that run under his belt and he did finish runner-up in this last year off today’s mark. He’s another with each way claims.

Mark Walsh was on A Great View last time but now opts for the improving Priory Park who bids for the hat trick after wins at Thurles and here over 2m 4f at Christmas. He’s progressive and is bred to improve further for a step up to 3m.  Despite a career high mark, the 6-year-old must be high on the shortlist.

Good Time Jonny showed improved form to win a novices’ handicap hurdle here over 2m 4f over Christmas. Up 9lb in a deeper race and needs to improve again to win but was staying on strongly at the finish of his race last time. That gives hope that 3m could suit the 6-year-old. Trainer Tony Martin saddled the winner of this in 2015.

3:15 – Paddy Power Irish Gold Cup (Grade 1) – 3m ½ f

Last year’s winner Kemboy is the bookies ante post favourite, a best priced 3/1 and you can understand why. Leopardstown is his track and the 10-year-old advertised his credentials for back-to-back win in the race when a ¾-length 3rd of 8 to Galvin in the Grade 1 Savills Chase over C&D last time.

Paul Nicholls brings over Frodon a best priced 100/30. He’s not getting younger but this looks a winnable race for the 10-year-old. With Kemboy he should at least ensure that we get a good gallop.

Last year’s Cheltenham Gold Cup winner Minella Indo. A big disappointment in the King George VI and surely 3m on decent ground will be too short for the 9-year-old.

Besides Kemboy. Willie Mullins also has Asterion Forlonge, Janidil and Cilaos Emery among the entries. I’m not sure the latter pair are at their best at 3m.

Asterion Forlonge has come down when still in with a chance on his last two starts in Grade 1 company. He’s clearly got the talent to win a race like this if, and it’s a big if, his jumping holds up. Mind you he will put it all together one day and it could be here.

Gordon Elliott runs Delta Work and Conflated. Delta Work won this in 2019 but hasn’t been seen at his best since that success and was only third in this last year. He shaped with a bit of promise when 5 ¾ length 4th of 5 to Frodon at Down Royal on his seasonal return but was well below his best in the Savills Chase.  Very much in the mix if bouncing back to something like his best.

Conflated has a bit to find on ratings and hasn’t always impressed with his jumping in the past. However. he finally got it together in the jumping stakes when winning the valuable Foxrock Handicap Chase (2m 4f) at Navan last time. The 8-year-old looks to be going the right way and holds a Gold Cup entry and could get into the places at big odds.

3:50- Paddy Power “I’m Never Going Back To The Office” Handicap Chase (Grade B) – 2m 1f

A surprisingly small field of just nine given there are €100,000 in guaranteed prize money.

Mt Leinster heads the betting. The 8-year-old has placed on his three starts in beginners’ chases. He makes his handicap chase debut here and looks nicely treated off a mark of 135, if his jumping holds up against more inexperienced rivals.

A Wave Of The Sea won this 12 months ago off 9lb higher. He’s been running well over 3m on his last three starts but if he isn’t inconvenienced by the drop back to 2m 1f must be respected with Shane Fitzgerald taking off a handy 5lb.

Grange Walk and Exit Poll were first and second in a C&D handicap over Christmas. The former has since gone onto disappoint at Fairyhouse and needs to jump better than he did last time. Exit Poll has been running consistently well over fences and won’t be far away again with Jack Foley taking off 5lb.

Capuccimix showed improved form to win a handicap chase over the distance at Killarney in July. Off for six months he didn’t jump as well as he did at Killarney but wasn’t out of it when falling three out in the valuable Dan Moore Handicap Chase at Fairyhouse won by Dunvegan last month. Needs to jump with more fluency than last time.  

4:25 – Goffs Future Stars (C & G) I.N.H. Flat Race (Grade 2) – 2m

Facile Vega looked a smart recruit when winning a C&D bumper here at Christmas. A leading fancy for the Cheltenham bumper after that success and is the one to beat here. Stablemate Embassy Gardens also made a winning racecourse debut here over Christmas. However, that success came over 2m 4f and he looks more of long-term prospect and is open to plenty of improvement.  Gordon Elliott saddled Envoi Allen to win this in 2019. He relies Itswhatunitesus who comfortably saw off 14 rivals to win on his racecourse debut at Navan in December. The Big Doyen has won both bumper starts. He’s improving and his form looks as good as any here. Both successes have come on good & good to soft ground so ground should be fine for him. Sandor Clegane won by 15-lengths on his racecourse debut at Punchestown in December. He looks a good prospect and showed a good turn of foot to see off his ten rival’s last time.

Sandown

The racing this side of the Irish Sea is good too. It’s good to soft at Sandown for a seven-race card. The feature race is the Grade 1 Virgin Bet Scilly Isles Novices Chase (2:20) were the exciting L’Homme Presse faces 4 rivals in his bid to make 4-4 over fences.

The ITV cameras are covering five races live from the track starting with the 1:15. I have just focused on those races which I have selections in.

1:15 – Virgin Bet Handicap Chase (Class 2) – 1m 7 ½ f

Just the eight for this handicap chase but you can make a case for seven of the eight runners. Gunsight Ridge runner-up to L’Homme Presse two starts back built on that performance when winning over C&D. He was keeping on strongly that day to beat Bun Doran by 1 ¾ lengths. The runner-up gets 4lb today and is entitled to get closer here. The winner is capable of better but the runner-up is well handicapped on best of his form. It was heavy ground last month and both horses did have hard races.

Dolos won this race in 2019 & 2020 and was only beaten a length here 12 months ago. He has hardly beaten a rival on five subsequent starts though which means he’s 15lb lower than he was when he finished runner-up in this last year.  Stablemate Tamaroc Du Mathan is having his first run since pulling up in the Old Roan Chase at Aintree in October. He’s had wind surgery since and if the breathing operation has had the desired effect the former Kempton Grade 2 Novice Chase winner would have a chance. He goes well right-handed and will be suited by today’s better ground.

Frero Banbou won over C&D (good to soft) last March and recorded his second win over fences when coming from behind to beat six rivals at Lingfield 15-days ago.  It was heavy ground last time but provided this race doesn’t come to quick he’s got to be respected off 6lb higher.

Rikoboy returned from a 10-month absence with a good 1 ½ length 2nd of 7 at Wincanton last month. He races off the same mark here and looks to have returned to action on a competitive mark. He will be fitter for his Wincanton run and is big contender here.

2:55 – Virgin Bet Heroes Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) – 2m 7 ½ f

With £100,000 in guaranteed prize money Sandown will be delighted they have attracted a competitive field of 18 runners for this valuable handicap hurdle. It’s the most competitive race this side of the Irish Sea and a cracker of race.

Ree Okka a winning pointer has just had the three starts over hurdles. A runner-up on his Aintree hurdles debut. He’s since gone onto win at Chepstow and Kempton. Handicap debut for the 6-year-old who lacks experience but is open to more improvement than most. He could be a Grade 1 horse in handicap and will like the ground.

Beauport won a heavy ground valuable novices’ handicap hurdle here over 2m 4f in March Has maintained his improvement this season finishing runner-up on both starts, including when ½-length 2nd of 11 to Dashel Drasher at Newbury last time. Looks set to improve for a step up to 3m and high on the shortlist although he may prefer softer ground.

Orbys Legend proved his stamina for 3m when winning at Wincanton last time. He’s 2-3 over hurdles this season seems ground versatile. Up 5lb for his latest success but is going the right way and should be there or thereabouts.

Dans Le Vent won the valuable Betfair Stayers’ Handicap Hurdle (3m) at Haydock in November. He did best of those coming from behind when a 7 ½ length 5th of 19 to Cobblers Dream in Lanzarote Hurdle at Kempton last time. Return to 3m will suit the 9-year-old and he isn’t out of this.

Green Book was sent off the 9/2 joint favourite for the Lanzarote but was badly hampered at the second and unseated his rider. A stayer on the flat this ground will suit and he’s not discounted.

Call Me Lord is one of the most experienced of the field. He did best of those who ran in the Lanazarote when a 7-length 3^rd of 19. Another to come from midfield that day and was doing his best work at the finish after not getting the best of passages two out. Has winning form here over shorter but should stay 3m and has been given a serious chance by the handicapper.

Jesuitique has won three of his four starts since coming over from France. He showed a decent turn of foot for a stayer when winning at Haydock last time. Has been hiked up 10lb for that success but that was his first start at 3m. He beat Beauport here 1 ½ lengths in November but that one is much better off at the weights here.

Irish raider Born Patriot goes well on a sound surface and was an excellent 3 length 2nd of 14 to Kansas City Chief in a Pertemps Series Qualifier at Cheltenham when last seen in action on October. He’s well suited to a stamina test and isn’t out of this although the Pertemps Hurdle could be the target.

3:30 – Virgin Bet Masters Handicap Chase (Class 2) – 3m

Farinet made it 2-2 here when winning over 2m 4f last month. Up 6lb but he’s progressive and shapes like he will get 3m. Both wins have come on softer ground though so today’s better ground does pose another question of the 7-year-old. If he handles it, he’s the one to beat. Trainer Venetia Williams saddled Otago Bay to win this in 2017.

Five Star Getaway a very progressive handicap chaser last spring.  He bounced back to form when winning a 3m handicap chase at Kempton. He’s only been raised 4lb for that Kempton win and given he’s unexposed over 3m looks capable of better over the distance. Has won here in the past, the ground should be fine and goes well in small fields.

Linelee King looked an improver over fences when landing a novice handicap chase at Aintree (good to soft) back in November and looked a shade unlucky when a 1 ½ length 3^rd of 4 at Ayr last time. Given he made a bad mistake four out that day he did well to get as close as he did to the winner. Stayed 3m over hurdles so open to more improvement for the step up to the distance over fences.

Deise Aba bids for a hat trick of wins in the race. Given his C&D form he can’t be safely ruled out but both those wins came on much softer ground than he’s likely to get today.

Le Milos jumped well when making 2-5 over fences when winning at Exeter on New Years Day. Up 9lb and in a better race but he’s only had two starts over 3m so could be capable of better. Granted it was heavy last time but did win on good going over hurdles so should be ok on today’s ground.

All four of Undersupervision’s chase starts have been at Cheltenham. The 6-year-old has been running with promise over fences and remains with potential. Just a 6-year-old he’s got the size to make a chaser. A mark of 134 looks workable and if the first time cheekpieces have the desired effect he could go well.

Musselburgh

Day one of Scottish Cheltenham Trials fixture. Three of the races are live on ITV and here’s a brief look at them.

2:05 – bet365 Auld Yin Conditional Jockeys’ Veterans’ Handicap Chase (Veterans’ Chase Series Qualifier) (Class 3) – 2m 6f

Cool Mix is a consistent handicap chaser 3^rd of 7 at Doncaster last time. Fifth of 22 in last season’s Scottish Grand National and is back down to his last winning mark when beating Sky Pirate at Wetherby in October 2020. Must have a good chance on his first start in a veteran’s chase but isn’t the easiest to win with.

Glen Forsa finished 8 lengths and one place behind Cool Mix at Doncaster. He had jumped well that day but doesn’t quite stay 3m so will be better suited by the drop back to 2m 6f and can reverse placings with Cool Mix.

Broken Quest bounced back to form when a 3-length 2nd of 8 to Destin d’Ajonc in handicap at Chepstow last time. Slightly flattered by his proximity to an easy winner but was at least doing his best work at the finish. Capable of going close if in the mood.

2:40 – bet365 Scottish County Handicap Hurdle (Class 2) – 1m 7 ½ f

Fiveandtwenty lost her unbeaten record at Musselburgh when a well beaten 4^th of 7 to Tommy’s Oscar over C&D on New Year’s Day. She’s better than she’s been able to show on either start this season and better is expected.

Glory And Honour makes a quick returnafter finishing a 9-length 5th of 12 to Cormier in handicap at Cheltenham last Saturday. That was a good confidence booster after the 6-year-old took a heavy fall on his chase debut at Ffos Las two starts back. No issues with the ground and he goes well right-handed. Definite contender for a trainer who saddled the winner of this in 2020.

Paul Nicholls has won this race twice sine 2017 so his runner Wild Max must be respected. The 7-year-old is back over hurdles here after pulling up on his chase debut at Ludlow in December. Out of form since winning at Doncaster in December 2020 but he looks well handicapped if back to form here.

Socialist Agenda a three-time good ground bumper winner last season.  He’s shaped with plenty of promise on his first two starts in novice hurdles before beating four rivals at Catterick (soft) on New Year’s Day. Looks the sort to improve with experience and could go well on his handicap debut.

3:45 – bet365 Edinburgh National Handicap Chase (Class 2) – 3m 7 ½ f

One of my ante post selections for the Edinburgh National Get Out Of The Gate wasn’t declared on Thursday but the other selection Step Back does run but sadly won’t now be ridden Jack Tudor. I already covered the race on Wednesday but I’m still taking on favourite Highland Hunter. Having lost one selection, I’m going to take a chance with Captain Cattistock. The 9-year-old proved he stayed 4m when winning a hunter chase at Cheltenham in April. Talented but can race lazily ne ran better than his pulled up suggests at Haydock in December. That was his first start for seven months and he ran well for a long way before tiring badly four out on very testing ground. Not one for maximum confidence but capable of a good run off a low weight.

Betting Advice:

Plenty of fancies today and to be fair in the 2:45 at Leopardstown and 2:55 at Sandown I could easily have had four or five picks.

Leopardstown

2:45 – 1pt win – Panda Boy – 13/2 @ Bet365 and 1pt win – Futurum Regem – 16/1 @ Bet365

3:15 – 0.5pts each way – Conflated – 50/1 @ Bet365 (paying 3 places 1/5 odds)

Sandown

1:15 – 1pt win – Rikoboy – 7/1 @ Bet365

2:55 – 1pt win – Ree Okka – 6/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes and 1pt win – Orbys Legend – 9/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

Musselburgh

2:05 – 1pt win – Broken Quest – 7/1 @ Bet365

2:40 – 1pt win – Socialist Agenda – 7/1 @ Coral

3:45 – 1pt win – Captain Cattistock – 6/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

Cheers

John

Hi all,

Saint D’oroux’s tidy win at Kelso got the service of the mark for the month. There’s plenty of action to get stuck into on Saturday and Sunday with of course the Dublin Racing Festival at Leopardstown. There are also good cards at Sandown, Musselburgh, where it’s day one of the tracks Scottish Cheltenham Trials Meeting, and Wetherby.

At Sandown the feature race is the Grade 1 Virgin Bet Scilly Isles Novices Chase (2:20) were the exciting L’Homme Presse faces 4 rivals in his bid to make 4-4 over fences.

At Wetherby the highlight of a seven-race card is the Grade 2 William Hill Towton Novices Chase (2:30). Ahoy Senor runner-up to Bravemansgame at Kempton over Christmas faces three rivals and will be a short-priced favourite to get back to winning ways.  

Sadly, as feared, the continuing dry weather has had impact at Musselburgh and Wetherby. The Scottish track has seen its seven races attract just 46 runners. It’s a big shame as it’s the tracks most valuable meeting of the year and there’s good prize money on offer. Wetherby has done even worse with just 41 runners declared for its Saturday card.

So, a busy a few couple of days to come. Today’s cards are mediocre quality wise. With best of the action coming at Chepstow. However, I have a few that a fancy at Chepstow and Dundalk. Although stakes are modest.

Chepstow

3:00 – Getmegold won at the second attempt over fences at Exeter (good to soft) 17-days ago. The 7-year-old is up 7lb for this Exeter success but is open to more improvement

Do It For Thy Sen won twice at Southwell back in May. He’s hasn’t been at that level of form on his three starts since returning from his summer break. He’s down to a mark just 1lb higher than for his last win and would go close if bouncing back to his best.

Celma Des Bois was a good 2^nd of 12 here over 2m 7 ½ f in Marchand made a winning return to action from a 10-month absence when beating 10 rivals at Leicester 23-days ago. The 10-year-old is up 4lb but gets his ground and is a leading contender.

0.5pts win – Celma Des Bois – 6/1 @ Bet365

0.5pts win – Do It Fir Thy Sen – 11/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

3:30 – A big field of 17 runners for this 3m 2f handicap chase. The two I like are Dr Kananga & La Cavsa Nostra.

Dr Kananga 3-7 in points, made all to win a maiden hunter chase at Hexham in May and made a pleasing start in handicap chase company when a 7 ½ length 2^nd of 11 at Chepstow (good to soft) over 2m 7 ½ f back in November. The 8-year-old was sent off the 15/8 favourite for his next start at Plumpton but ran well below his Chepstow form. Has been given a 53-day break and is should do better.

The Neil Mulholland trained La Cavsa Nostra is the most intriguing runner in the field. The 10-year-old is returning from a massive 813-day absence today. A winner of 2-4 of his four starts, including over C&D, over fences. Beat the now 150 rated Lord Du Mesnil when last seen in action in November 2019. You’re taking a chance that he’s over what has kept him off the track but he’s potentially well handicapped in the sphere.

0.5pts win – Dr Kananga – 6/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

0.5pts win – La Cavsa Nostra – 10/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

Dundalk

4:30 – Dartan a winner when trained in Germany and runner-up on his sole all-weather start. Not disgraced on his hurdle/stable debut when 2^nd of 15 at Navan in November but failed to build on that promise when a well beaten 7^th of 17 at Leopardstown over Christmas. Gets the first-time blinkers for his return to the level and if the headgear has the desired effect, he could be on a competitive mark based on his German form.

Top Line Tommy has been running over hurdles but it worth remembering he was in decent form on the all-weather in the early part of 2021 winning a C&D handicap 12 months ago and ran well on three subsequent starts, including a personal best when a nose 2^nd of 13 over C&D in April. The 6-year-old is now 1lb lower and could go well returning to the all-weather.

0.5pts win – Dartan – 11/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook

0.5pts win – Top Line Tommy – 9/1 @ Bet365 & Paddy Power

7:30 – Macadam’s Rock is a ten-race maiden, three of those runs coming on the all-weather.  Improved form from the selection on his last two starts, finishing a 1¾ length 4th of 13 over C&D 14-days ago. Sam Ewing takes off a handy 5lb and that could make all the difference today.

1pt win – Macadam’s Rock – 10/1 @Bet365

Cheers

John

Hi all,

Guy was just touched off by Patroclus yesterday but Legend Of Zorro was woeful. So not a good start to the month.  

Today I have I have another Cheltenham ante post selection for you. Plus, there is a selection from Wincanton and two from Kelso.

Path To Cheltenham

My Cheltenham Hurdle ante post selection Saint Roi takes on Honeysuckle in Chanelle Pharma Irish Champion Hurdle on Sunday. I’m hoping for a good run to keep his Cheltenham hopes alive.

Today I’m putting up my fourth Cheltenham Festival ante post selection.

National Hunt Chase

The National Hunt Chase used to be run over 4m but is now run over 3m 6f. However, it remains the longest race at the Cheltenham Festival. Due to Covid the professional jockeys replaced the amateurs last year but the latter are back again this year.

The Gordon Elliot trained Run Wild Fred and the Willie Mullins trained Stattler are the joint 7/2 favourites. The former ran out a comfortable winner of the valuable Troytown Handicap Chase before finishing runner-up to stablemate Fury Road in the Grade 1 Neville Hotels Novice Chase at Leopardstown over Christmas.

Stattler a useful staying novice hurdler last season made a winning chase debut in a beginners’ chase at Fairyhouse. Upped in class he had to dig deep to wear down Farouk D’alene on the run-in to win a Grade 3 novices’ chase at Naas (3m 1f) last Sunday. He should be effective over further and is open to more improvement over the larger obstacles.

The front two in the ante post market clearly have clear claims in the National Hunt Chase. However, I’m going with one of the home team here at it’s the Rebecca Curtis Pats Fancy. A useful novice hurdler last season, Pats Fancy has taken his form to another level since going chasing. A winner of his last two starts, both at Chepstow. Both those successes have come at 2m 7 ½ f but he’s bred to stay further. He held off useful handicap chaser Gericault Roque, who has boosted the form since, for the first of those wins and then comfortably beat recent Cheltenham winner Imperial Alcazar by 11 lengths at the Welsh Grand National meeting. He finished his race off strongly that day which suggests he will relish the 3m 6f of the National Hunt Chase.

The 7-year-old also has entry in the Grade 1 Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase but trainer Rebecca Curtis has said this will be his Cheltenham target.  He was due to run at Exeter yesterday but was a non-runner due to pulling a shoe off.

Curtis doesn’t have may runners at the Cheltenham Festival but since 2012 she’s trained 5 winners from 46 runners +38.38. One of those five winners was Teaforthree who won the race in 2012.

Selection: Pats Fancy – 1pt each way – 20/1 @ Bet365 & Paddy Power.

Thursday Racing

Wincanton

4:10 – I’m going to forgive Didero Vallis his last run at Ascot. He’s no 0-4 there and just doesn’t seem to like that track. Prior to that run he had finished a useful 3-length 2^nd of 7 at Ludlow. Not the easiest to catch right. Although he did win a Catterick 12 months ago, off 3lb lower, and ran even better when beaten a neck by Kitty’s Light at Kelso a month later.  Slight concern about the ground, fine on good to soft. However, what really stands out is the 9-year-old’s record in field sizes eight or less – 4 wins from 7 starts +21.62 7 placed (all his career wins). Jockey Charlie Deutsch also has an excellent record in small field handicap chases with 25 wins from 67 rides 37% +30.44 in the last 12 months.

1pt win – Didero Vallis – 3/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

Kelso

Arguably the best two races bookend the Kelso’s six race card.

1:50 – Kaizer has dropped down to a good mark and he ran well when 1 ¼ length 2nd of 15 at Newcastle last time. Back in 6^th that day and 5 ¾ lengths behind was Dequall. A C&D winner here last April. Today’s extra 2 ½ f will suit the 6-year-old and he gets 4lb from Kaizer here with Peter Kavanagh taking off a further 7lb.

1pt win – Dequall – 4/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

4:20 – The most valuable jumps race today concludes the Kelso card. The early bird favourite is the lightly raced Famous Bridge. The 6-year-old won a good ground novice hurdle at Ayr back in November and then ran just as well when a 1 ¾ length 2nd of 12, under a 7lb penalty, here over 2m 6 ½ f. The 1 ½ f drop back in distance shouldn’t be an inconvenience nor should the drying ground. Handicap hurdle debut off what looks a competitive mark.

There doesn’t look to be much in the way of pace in the race which could inconvenience Voodoo Doll. A winner on good to firm at Taunton three starts back, off 2lb lower. The 9-year-old bounced back to form with a 6 ¼ length 5th of 11 to Green Book at Ludlow last time. Set too much to do that day but was running on well at the finish. The first-time blinkers replace the visor and provided the waiting tactics are not over done he can go well on drying ground.

Saint D’oroux is an interesting Irish raider from the Stuart Crawford yard. The 6-year-old is only 1-13 over hurdles but did finish a 4-length 3^rd of 22 in the Boodles Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle at the 2020 Cheltenham Festival, off 2lb lower. Best efforts last season came when a ¾ length 2^nd of 13 at Thurles and a 6 ¼ length 3^rd of 22 in a valuable handicap at the Dublin Racing Festival. Ended last season with a couple of poor efforts. Stamina for 2m 4f to prove but if ready to roll on his first start for 278-days must be respected on his best form.

Verdict: Famous Bridge could be nicely treated for his handicap debut. If he is then he will be tough to beat. Voodoo Doll can’t afford to get as far back as he did last time but can go close if the change in headgear sharpens him up. Saint D’oroux might prefer softer ground but wouldn’t be far away if reproducing anything like his best.

0.5pts win – Voodoo Doll – 9/1 @ Bet365

0.5pts win – Saint D’oroux – 16/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

Cheers

John

Hi all,

What a potentially stellar weekend of racing to look forward to. It’s just a shame that there has been a serious lack of rain in the last month. Given the lack of the wet stuff it looks like field sizes will be hit. For example; looking at the field for the bet365 Edinburgh National Handicap Chase. Just 11 runners were left in at Monday’s confirmation stage.

On Saturday there’s Grade 1 action both sides of the Irish Sea. There’s seven race card for day one of the Dublin Racing Festival which includes four Grade 1 races and two likely valuable and competitive handicaps. The highlight for many will be the Paddy Power Irish Gold Cup (3.15)

The best of the action this side of the Irish Sea comes from Sandown where the Virgin Bet Scilly Isles Novices’ Chase (2.20) takes place. At Wetherby, the William Hill Towton Novices’ Chase (2.30).

Up at Musselburgh it’s day one of Scottish Trials Weekend and the highlights of a seven-race card includes the Frodon Novices’ Chase (12.57), Scottish County Hurdle (2.40) and Edinburgh National (3.45).

The ITV cameras are covering 11 races live on Saturday. Four from Sandown, Four from Musselburgh and one from Wetherby. As a bonus they are also covering two races from the Dublin Racing Festival, including the Paddy Power Irish Gold Cup.

Now we need is some rain at all the jumps tracks. Some rain is being forecast for the week but at the time of writing it doesn’t like it will be much. At the time of writing. Both Sandown and Musselburgh have been watering to prevent the ground getting too quick.

I know some of you don’t like ante post betting but there is often more value to be had. Although you must take a chance that your selections run and you take a chance that the ground doesn’t change to dramatically before the race. With those things in mind. I have a couple that I like in Saturday’s Edinburgh National.  Plus, I have a couple of selections from this afternoon’s fixtures at Leicester & Exeter.

Ante Post Selections:

Musselburgh – bet365 Edinburgh National Handicap Chase

Top-weight Highland Hunter has been installed as the ante post favourite (9/4). The Paul Nicholls trained runner looks a worthy market leader after his 9-length 2nd of 20 to Iwilldoit in Welsh Grand National at Chepstow. He finished 7-lengths clear of the third day and can race off the same mark here. On the negative side this will be some of the quickest ground he’s raced on although he did win on good to soft at Sandown two starts back.  

Given the forecast going I’m happy to take the favourite on and the two I like two at the prices are Get Out The Gate and the veteran Step Back.

You can’t say the Sandy Thomson yard is in red hot form of late but you can guarantee he’s laid out a few for the meeting and one of them could be Get Out The Gate. The 9-year-old is twice a winner here over hurdles so no problems with the track. Ok, he’s yet to race beyond 3m 1f but one big plus is the likely going, as five of his six career wins have come on good ground.

Step Back might be a 12-year-old but the 2018 bet365 Gold Cup Winner showed he was no back number when making all to Veterans’ Handicap Chase at Sandown in November 2020. Off for 12 months he was a well beaten 34 length 7th of 13 to Annsam in Silver Cup at Ascot in December. Granted we don’t know how much ability remains. However, on the plus side he’s at best going right-handed, on good, good to soft going – 4 wins from 7 starts +19.5 5 places. Jack Tudor has been booked for the ride and he’s 2-2 on the horse.

Verdict:  Get Out Of The Gate and Step Back are couple of value ante post picks against the favourite Highland Hunter.

1pt win – Step Back – 14/1 @ William Hill & Sky Bet

1pt win – Get Out Of The Gate – 10/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

Wednesday Racing

Leicester

3:20 – Useful hurdler Patroclus was well fancied, returned 11/4, for his seasonal return/chase debut at Newbury 35-days ago. The 6-year-old who has the size for jumping a fence shaped like the run was needed last time. The drop back to 2m 4f shouldn’t inconvenience him. Although this will be the quickest ground he’s raced on. Better can be expected as he gains more experience over the larger obstacles.

Top-weight Guy, trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies, looked set for a good season when finishing a 2-length 2^nd of 9 at Market Rasen (good) on his seasonal return and he was closing on the leader when making a bad mistake two out when runner-up again at Ascot. Below his best when only 6^th of 9 back at Ascot last time. He’s suited by a sound surface and this race is a drop-in class compared to his last three starts.

Trainer Tom George saddled the winner of this race 2016 & 2017 and runs Crealion. Twice a winner over fences the 6-year-old arguably put in a personal best when a 1 ¾ length 2nd of 9 to Family Business over C&D three weeks ago. He gets 3lb from that one and has a good chance of reverse placings today. He goes well on quick ground too so shouldn’t be far away.

1pt win – Guy – 3/1 – Gen

Exeter

3:40 – Another competitive handicap chase. Jobesgreen Lad will be popular on his hat trick bid after wins at Ludlow & Hereford. He looks progressive but will need to be as he’s been hiked up 9lb for his Hereford success and is up a shade in class.

Ambion Hill is expected to make a better chaser than a hurdler and he jumped nicely when shaping with plenty of promise when a 3 ¼ length 2^nd of 12 to Jobesgreen Lad at Ludlow. He gets 15lb from the winner today and must have a great chance of reversing places here.

Legend Of Zorro‘s two chase wins have come on good to soft and good ground. The latest of them came at Taunton last April, off today’s mark.  Not at his best in three starts in the autumn and was a disappointing beaten favourite when last seen in action at Hereford back in November.  The distance maybe on the sharp side for him but he’s had win surgery since his last run and isn’t handicapped out of this on ground that suits.  

1pt win – Legend Of Zorro – 8/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

Cheers

John