Author: John Burke

Hi all,

After a couple of days off I’m back for a competitive looking card at Carlisle for Carlisle Bell Day at the Cumbrian track.

The Carlisle Bell first run in 1599 is the oldest sporting trophy in the world. The highlights of a seven race card which gets underway at 1:20 include the Carlisle Bell (2:55), the Cumberland Plate (3:25) and the Listed Eternal Stakes (3:55).

Carlisle

2:55 – Carlisle Bell Handicap (Class 4) – 1m

A competitive looking renewal of this historic race. Makeen won here last time over 7f. He stays a mile so the return to today’s trip won’t be a problem. He’s ground versatile and the 5-year-old has only had seven starts on turf and although he has an 8lb rise in the weights to contend with he won with plenty in hand last time and is going the right way.

David O’Meara has a couple of contenders in Pisanello & Arranmore. Pisanello a close 3^rd of 15 in the Thirsk Hunt Cup bounced back to form when dropped back into this class when a 2 ½ length 2^nd of 13 at York 11-days ago. Looks sure to give another good account although stall 13 might not be ideal. Arranmore hasn’t been at his best on either start this season, but he shaped a little better at Beverley last time. His form figures over C&D are 112 and he goes well on a sound surface. Ryan Sexton takes off a useful 5lb and he’s down to a good mark, but he’s drawn widest of all though which is a concern.

Cassy O, a useful handicapper winning twice last season. He bounced back to form when ¾ length 2^nd of 6 over C&D two starts back and then went one better when making all at Redcar just 5-days ago. Needs to force the pace and will face competition for the lead here. Has a 5lb penalty to carry here but given his present form he’s got to be considered seriously.

1pt win – Makeen – 9/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

3:25 – Cumberland Plate Handicap (Class 4) – 1m 3f

Trainer Gemma Tutty has a well fancied runner in Tangled the Carlisle Bell consolation race (2:25) and she could be set for a big day as she also has a big contender here with Strawman. The 5-year-old has done well since joining the yard last year winning four of his seven starts. The latest of those successes came when coming from off the pace to beat seven rivals at Redcar 20-days ago. He’s been nudged up 3lb for that win, but the form of the race is really working out with the runner-up going in twice since, and the third and fourth have both gone onto win and remains one to beat. Two of his career wins have come here and although he’s yet to win beyond 1m 2f I think he will stay on quick ground. He’s high on the shortlist.

Hugo Palmer & Ben Curtis are operating at 26%-win strike rate this year and they combine with Commonsensical.  A winner at Chepstow on his seasonal return he went close off 5lb higher when a neck 2^nd of 4 at Ripon 6-days ago. Steps up to 1m 4f for the first time and his not a guaranteed to stay. That said he’s in form and should give another good account.

El Picador bounced back two winning ways at Musselburgh last time. He should go well again but is 5lb higher and this looks a better race. Emaraty Hero was 1 ½ lengths behind him at Musselburgh. He gets a 5lb pull in the weights so is entitled to reverse placings with the winner but the 1f drop drop n trip might not suit given he stays 2m.

Croeso Cymraeg needs a very strong gallop to chase which he got when winning at Ripon (good to firm) at 7-days ago.  He’s got a 4lb penalty to carry for that success, but he should get the race run to suit today and he was a ½ length 2^nd of 13 in last year’s race, off 1lb lower’ Looks set for another big run on ground that suits.

Shake A Leg comes into the race seeking the hat trick after wins at Doncaster and Ripon. He’s jockey has been able to dictate the pace for both those successes which doesn’t seem likely here.  Jockey Graham Lee who won on the 5-year-old two starts back is back in the saddle.

Graham Lee rode Detective to finish second here last time and that one can’t be discounted here given his course record. He’s 4 from 10 at Carlisle and hasn’t been out of the first on all his runs here. The latest of his wins came two starts back over a mile! Whilst he was running here over 1m 6f last time. The cheekpieces he wore at the end of last season return for the first time and the drop back to 1m 3f looks a plus. Kevin Stott who rode the 6-year-old to win at Hamilton on his seasonal return is back in the saddle and a big run should be forthcoming.

1pt win – Strawman – 4/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

1pt win – Croeso Cymraeg – 17/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

3:55 – British Stallion Studs EBF Eternal Stakes (Listed Race) (Fillies) – 7f

Twelve fillies go in search of Black Type in this Listed contest. Oscula is 5lb clear of the field on official ratings and looks a worthy enough favourite. The George Boughey trained 3-year-old was back to form on her return from a 3-month break when a length 2nd of 7 to Ever Given in a Listed race at Epsom 19-days ago.

Next in on official ratings is Snooze N You Lose. The Karl Burke trained filly won a Listed race at Musselburgh but she does have to give 3lb to all but one of her rivals. She’s stays 7f well and should give her running once but seems unlikely to her own way out in front this time. Clitheroe was 2 ¼ length behind Snooze N You Lose at Musselburgh. She didn’t get the run of the race compared to the winner, having to be dropped in from a wide draw and didn’t get the best of runs 2f out. Today’s stronger pace will suit Clitheroe better and with the 3lb she gets can get closer.

Atomic Lady probably needed her seasonal reappearance when a 6 ¾ length 9th of 19 to Harry Three in a valuable handicap at York 9-days ago. First go at 7f but is bred to stay and her yard is going well.

Miss Carol Anne hasn’t been seen since finishing a 4 length 7th of 12 to Wild Beauty in Fred Darling Stakes at Newbury in April. She’s open to further improvement with racing and this looks a more suitable opportunity.

Amirat Alward has 21lb to find with Oscula on official ratings, but the Irish raider comes into the race on the back of an improved performance when winning a Listowel handicap 18-days ago. The quicker ground suited her last time, and I wouldn’t be totally surprised if she got into the money at big odds.

1pt win – Clitheroe – 11/2 @ Bet365

Cheers

John

Hi all,

I was hoping to end Royal Ascot on high yesterday, but it wasn’t to be. The weekend isn’t over yet though as the Sky Bet Sunday Series caravan rolls into Pontefract and across the Channel it’s the Prix de Diane (French Oaks) (3:00). Nashwa third in the Oaks at Epsom bids to go two places better and land the French Filles Classic.

Chantilly

3:00 – Prix de Diane Longines (Group 1) – 1m 2 ½ f

Nashwa was still bang there coming to the final furlong but was just done by a pair of stronger stayers at Epsom. The drop back in trip will suit the daughter of Frankel but the forecast soft ground is an unknown. If she takes after her dam, she should be very effective on rain softened ground.

Zellie a Group 1 winning juvenile (heavy) ran with plenty of credit, on ground that would have been plenty quick for her when a 2 ½ length 4^th of 13 in the English 1,000 Guineas. The step up to 1m 2 ½ f asks another question of the filly but the ground is a plus for her chance.

Times Square finished a neck 3^rd of 15 in the French 1,000 Guineas last time. That was a fine effort from her and there’s a good chance that she will be suited by the step up to 1m 2 ½ f. One place and ¾ length behind her in 4^th was Rosacea. Rosacea had been sent off favourite that day and I can see her reversing places with Times Square today. Whether she’s good enough to beat Nashwa will be revealed later today. However, on pedigree she’s bred to improve for 1m 2f and connections run a pacemaker which should ensure a decent gallop and Christophe Soumillon takes over in the saddle for the first time. The only negative is stall 17 but if she can overcome her wide draw, I think she can go close.

Verdict: This race looks an ideal fit for Nashwa but despite her wide draw I still like the claims of Rosacea each way.

Pontefract

I have had a good look at three of today’s Sky Bet Sunday Series races and I have selections in all three.

5:15 – Didtheyleaveuoutto isn’t an easy horse to win with, but he’s only had three starts on the flat and today’s 2m 2f could really suit the 9-year-old who is well suited to a sound surface.

When you think of Peter Bowen you think summer jumps, but the trainer does have winners on the level and his runner Twilight Prince must be respected. He’s a ten race maiden but the 4-year-old produced an improved performance on RPR’s when a neck 2^nd of 6 at Bath (2m 1f) last time. He’s not bred for marathon trips but his two efforts since stepped up 2m + have suited him. Silvestre De Sousa has been booked for the ride and he’s got a handy draw in stall 2.

Byron Hill won twice last season for Charlie Fellowes with the last of the wins coming off today’s mark of 75 at Nottingham (2m). Now with Joseph Tuite. He shaped like the run was needed when 5^th of 7 at Salisbury last month. Very effective on quick ground the 4-year-old looks on a competitive mark and looks overpriced in the early betting.

6:15 – Top-weight Bullet Force drops a couple of notches in class in this 1m handicap. The 3-year-old was a good 1 ½ length 3rd of 12 to Outgate at Chester 8-days ago. Racing the first visor he came from behind to take third. Today’s extra furlong on stiffer track looks a positive although the visor he wore at Chester is replaced by the blinkers. He looks the one to beat from a yard still among the winners.

Fiftyshadesaresdev is 0-8 but he’s got some good form here and stayed on to finish a 1 ¾ length 3^rd of 9 over C&D last time. He ran lazily last time and the fitting of the first time cheekpieces looks a positive move. If the headgear has the desired effect, he can take advantage of handy enough mark.

6:45 – Pontefract keep the most competitive race until last with seventeen declared for a tricky 6f handicap. Although prominent racers normally hold sway here over the distance the forecast strong pace could swing the advantage towards the closers.

Corinthia Knight took advantage of some help from the handicapper to make it 4-5 at the track 13-days ago. He’s been nudged up 2lb for that success but remains on winnable mark and Harry Davies takes off a handy 5lb which negates the weight rise. Big chance out of stall 2.

Dream Composer also comes into the race in winning form and is bidding for the hat trick after wins here (5f) and last time over today’s distance at Goodwood 14-days ago. Has a 3lb rise in the weights but should give another good account given his current form.

Ghathanfar, a winner at Wetherby in May has continued in good form finishing runner-up on his last two starts. A front runner he has good draw in stall 4 but he will likely face plenty of pace pressure which could make life tough.

Tim Easterby has a trio of contenders in Music Society, Golden Apollo and Manigordo and three have claims. Music Society a winner at Catterick 16-days ago bids for back to back wins in the race but has wide draw in stall 13 to overcome. That said he’s a hold up horse and will be dropped in to come with a late run. Manigordo is 5lb below his last winning mark but he’s not the easiest to win with and comes into the race on a losing run that goes back to April 2021. Comes into the race after a decent enough effort from behind when a 2 length 3^rd of 11 at Chester 8 days ago. Quick ground suits and the forecast strong pace will suit. The one I like though is previous C&D winner Golden Apollo is on an even longer losing run with his last success coming in Ayr’s Silver Cup in September 2019. He’s now 17lb below that mark and he did finish 2^nd of 20 in last season’s Great St Wilfrid Handicap at Ripon off 15lb higher. He’s not the most reliable these days but he was a running on 2 ½ length 4th of 21 at York last weekend and reproduction of something close to his Great St Wilfrid Run would see the 8-year-old go very close here.

Betting Advice:

Chantilly

3:00 – 1pt each way – Rosacea – 12/1 @ Ladbrokes (paying 4 places 1/5 odds)

Pontefract

5:15 – 1pt win – Twilight Prince – 8/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes and 0.5pts each way – Byron Hill – 25/1 @ Paddy Power (paying 5 places 1/5 odds)

6:15 – 1pt each way – Fiftyshadesaresdev – 12/1 @ Bet365 (paying 3 places 1/5 odds)

6:45 – 1pt each way – Golden Apollo – 16/1 @ Bet365 (paying 5 places 1/5 odds)

Cheers

John

Hi all,

It took until the final race on Day 4 to get off the mark for the week. Plenty of winners have been highlighted in the daily previews over the last few days but I haven’t just picked the right ones. It’s one of the problems with going for value rather than the likeliest looking winner. However, it’s an approach that does pay dividends over the long term.

It’s almost done for another year. Royal Ascot comes and goes in the blink of an eye and here we are on the final day of the meeting. Here’s my final preview of the day’s races and as ever my betting advice follows at the end of the main piece.

Today’s card looks the toughest of the whole meeting.

Once again, it’s the 2-year-old’s that get us underway in the Listed Chesham Stakes (2:30).

Royal Ascot

2:30 – Chesham Stakes (Listed Race) – 7f

The Aidan O’Brien trained Alfred Munnings could be something special after seeing his racecourse debut success at Leopardstown. It will be interesting to see how short he goes in the betting as the yard has won four of the last six running’s of the race.  He does face some promising rivals though including Curragh winner Crypto Force, recent Yarmouth runner-up Alzahir who Frankie Dettori rides from three Gosden runners. Then we have Finn’s Charm who outclassed four rivals at Musselburgh last time and The Foxes. The latteris a half-brotherto Bangkok. He’s going to be at his best as 3-year-old over 1m 2f, but he shaped with plenty of promise when 2 length 4th of 14 to Dark Thirty on his racecourse debut in maiden at Newbury. Dark Thirty is capable of further progress with racing but probably not as much as The Foxes.

Verdict: Alfred Munnings looks the most likely winner, but The Foxes has each way claims.

3:05 – Jersey Stakes (Group 3) – 7f

Noble Truth tops the ratings here and he looked an ideal type for this when winning a Newmarket Listed race in April. He’s been gelded since that run but looks a worthy favourite. However, he does face a couple of interesting rivals who bring classic form to the race. Star Girls Aalmal was well backed before finishing a6 ¼ lengths fourth of 14 to Homeless Songs in Irish 1000 Guineas last time. She was just run out of second close to home and the drop back to 7f will suit the filly. Rocchigiani almost stole the German 2,000 Guineas but was caught close to home by Maljoom. The winner has boosted the form of that race when finishing an unlucky fourth in the Group 1 St James’ Palace Stakes earlier this week. The drop back to 7f should suit and if he’s effective on quick ground should go well. Samburu is unbeaten on his three starts. He takes a big step up in class from handicap company last time. The Kingman colt is capable of more progress with racing and is probably a pattern horse in the making. French Challenger Toimy Son won a Longchamp Listed race over 7f when last seen 48-days ago and this has been the target since. He’s got each way claims if the handles the quickest ground he’s run on. Tacarib Bay might want the thunderstorms to arrive, but he wasn’t disgraced when 9¼ lengths 12th of 15 to Coroebus in 2000 Guineas. This is more his level and he’s another with place claims.

3:40 – Hardwicke Stakes (Group 2) – 1m 4f

Hurricane Lane is the best of these on form, but the favourite is worth taking on his seasonal return, especially if the ground continues to be as quick as it is. Broome has 6lb to find with the favourite on official ratings. He will handle the ground and will strip a lot fitter for his seasonal return in the on his seasonal return in the Tattersalls Gold Cup last time. The Aidan O’Brien trained 6-year-old is the each-way thieves’ selection, if all eight runners stand their ground. Solid Stone has been supplemented for the race on his first start over 1m 4f. The gelding is an uncomplicated ride with a good attitude at the finish and goes well on quick ground.

4:20 – Platinum Jubilee Stakes (Group 1) – 6f

Australian sprinter Home Affairs is a short-priced favourite to give Chris Waller another Group 1 success after Nature Strip’s win in the King Stand Stakes on Tuesday. The other Australian challenger Artorius has a bit to find on ratings with the favourite but he’s got a good chance as Ascot stiff 6f could suit him with Jamie Spencer talking the ride.

It could be that the Australian horses are much better than the rest, but they do face 25 rivals who are close to each other on the figures.

Highfield Princess looked much improved for the step back to 6f when quickening clear of her eight rivals when winning the Group 2 Duke of York Stakes at York last time. Minzaal was a 3 ¾ length third to Highfield Princess on his seasonal return last time. Given the winner had race fitness on her side there’s a decent chance Minzaal could finish ahead of her today. He was just 2 lengths behind Creative Force on Champions Day that came after just one previous run last season. The first time cheekpieces are applied and he’s got each way claims

Alcohol Free won two Group 1’s over a mile last year. Hasn’t been at her best on both starts over that distance this season and looks interesting dropped back to sprinting. Albeit she might prefer softer ground.

A Case Of You is a smart sprinter on his day and could get into the places despite underwhelming run at the Curragh last time. Creative Force won the Group 1 sprint over C&D on Champions Day. He also won the Jersey Stakes (7f) last season so goes very well here and must be respected. Campanelle won the Commonwealth Cup over C&D in the stewards room last year. She also won the Queen Mary here as juvenile and is another who goes well at the track. Emaraaty Ana hardly beat rival on two starts in Meydan but he’s very much respected on his win in last season’s Group 1 Sprint Cup at Haydock.

Great Ambassador was an improving sprinter last year and ended the campaign with an excellent 2^nd of 24 in the Ayr Gold Cup under a big weight.  He goes well fresh and wouldn’t need to improve much for the step into Group company.

Another who goes well fresh is Sacred who is 2-2 when returning from a 121+day layoff. Quick ground suits her and there was plenty to like about her strong travelling performance when winning the Group 2 Hungerford Stakes (7f) at Newbury on her final start of last season. She’s got plenty of pace and shouldn’t be inconvenienced by the drop back to 6f.

5:00 – Wokingham Stakes (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) – 6f

It doesn’t get any easier to find a winner with 28 handicappers declared to run. Last year’s winner Rohaan is now 3lb below that winning mark. The reason for that is that he hasn’t run to that level of form since. If he bounces back to last year’s best, he will be tough to beat, and Ryan Moore is an eyecatching jockey booking. He seems to go on quick ground, but he won’t be inconvenienced if the thunderstorms arrive.

Summerghand is another who has dropped down to a good mark. He was only beaten a nose in this in 2020 off today’s mark. He’s best suited by quick ground and was doing his best work at the finish when a 3 ½ length 6th of 22 to Dakota Gold at York last month. Stall 27 might be ok as their looks to be plenty of pace among the high drawn runners.

Ante post favourite Fresh has an excellent record hereon the straight course and was only beaten a neck in this last year. He should go well again but he may not run if the ground is too quick. Silver Samurai has improved for the return to 6f and he bids for the hat trick after a career best effort when winning at Haydock last time. He get’s a 5lb penalty to carry for his latest success but he had plenty in hand last time and still looks on a good mark. This race could really suit the 5-year-old and he’s on the high on the shortlist.

Popmaster has always suggested that a big field/strong pace scenario would suit and he’s on a competitive mark. He ran well when second at Chelmsford last time. A couple of places behind him that day was Tiger Crusade but that one was having his first start since October and was conceding race fitness that day. He’s got form over C&D, stays 7f and he will get a typical Jamie Spencer hold up ride.

Pricewise has gone for Lampang and you can see why. He looked a much improved sprinter for a gelding operation when winning at Ayr on his seasonal return in April. He’s been kept for this race and is only 4lb higher than last time. James McDonald has been booked for the 5-year-old and a big run can be expected if he’s as effective in a big field.

Blackrod looked an improved sprint handicapper when winning at Newmarket in April on his seasonal return. He’s only 5lb higher than last time and has been kept fresh for this. Another big player who should be fine on the ground although trainer Michael Dods thinks he doesn’t want it too quick. Jumby was 5 lengths behind Blackrod that day, but he was slowly away but if he can get off on level terms, he’s on decent mark.

We don’t see many French challengers in these big field handicaps, but we have couple of them here. The best of them could be Prince Lancelot who is bidding for a hat trick after two wins at Chantilly. That said a big field like this is a bit of an unknown and his best form in France has come with ease in the ground. The other French trained runner Batwan won twice in Meydan on good ground, in double figure sized fields, over the winter. He was 2 ½ length behind Prince Lancelot last time but may have just needed the run.

5:35 – Golden Gates Stakes (Handicap) (Class 2) – 1m 2f

Just 16 for this handicap but it’s on the round course so it’s a maximum field and they are all 3-year-olds, many of them with plenty of upside.

Falling Shadow looked a useful prospect when winning a Newbury maiden last month. He’s been gelded since and is open to further progress on his handicap debut. Stablemate Blue Trail was a 2 ¼ length 3^rd of 10 in the Esher Cup at Sandown last time. He’s vulnerable to more progressive rivals, like Falling Shadow, but the step up to 1m 2f night bring out more improvement.

Missed The Cut comes into the race seeking the hat trick after wins at Pontefract and Salisbury. Another capable of better on his handicap debut and James McDonald has been booked for the ride. The Gosden’s have a couple of potential improvers in Honiton & Aldous Huxley. The first named the pick of Frankie Dettori who got off the mark at the 5^th attempt when winning a Sandown maiden 7-days ago. He’s yet another potential improver for his handicap debut. Aldous Huxley has got top-weight of 9-9 to defy on his handicap debut but Benoit De La Sayette does take off a handy 5lb. He ran Irish Derby contender Lionel to a neck in a Goodwood Listed race last time and could be a pattern horse but stall 1 may not be ideal.

Both Knightswood & Chairman are bidding for hat tricks and look likely to progress further in particular the former who makes his handicap debut and won over further last time. Phantom Flight is another runner seeking a hat trick. Both his wins have come on a sound surface and over a mile. A mark of 95 looks tough on his handicap debut but he’s bred to improve for the step up to 1m 2f and can’t be discounted.

French challenger Pervade ran well when dropped back to a mile last time, but he’s bred to effective at 1m 2f. His dam was very effective on quick ground, and he could improve for a faster surface.

6:10 – Queen Alexandra Stakes (Conditions Race) (Class 2) – 2m 5 ½ f

The longest race of the five day’s and not one I normally have an interest in. As a betting race it’s spoilt by the declaration of short priced favourite Trueshan who will only run if the thunderstorms arrive which doesn’t seem too likely. Wordsworth will go off favourite if Trushan doesn’t run. He didn’t seem to be stopping at the finish when 4^th in the Sagaro Stakes here over 2m two starts back and could improve further for this marathon trip. Falcon Eight was well beaten in this race last year when sent off the 7/4 favourite but the ground was too testing for him that day and he’s better suited by quicker ground.  Nate The Great was a good 1 ¾ length 2nd of 8 to Quickthorn In the Group 3 Henry II Stakes at Sandown last time and has each way claims. Stratum won this 12 months ago, but it was soft ground, and this looks a stronger renewal. Reshoun has a bit to find at the weights, but he wasn’t disgraced when a 3 ½ length 5^th of 19 in the Ascot Stakes on Tuesday. He did best of those coming from the rear that day and has place claims. The Andre Fabre trained Timour has Group form over 1m 4f in France. No reason on pedigree to think he want’s this sort of trip but should he stay then he’s another who could get into the money.

Betting Advice: 

2:30 – 0.5pts each way – The Foxes – 14/1 @ Bet365 (paying 4 places)

3:05 – 1pt win – Rocchigiani – 12/1 – Gen

4:20 – 1pt win – Sacred – 9/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes – and 0.5pts each way – Great Ambassador – 33/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook (both paying 6 places 1/5 odds)

5:00 –1pt win – Silver Samurai – 9/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes; 1pt win – Blackrod – 8/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes and 1pt win – Summerghand – 22/1 @ Bet365 & Ladbrokes.

5:35 – 1pt win – Falling Shadow – 6/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook and 1pt win – Phantom Flight – 14/1 @ Bet365

Cheers

John

Hi all,

Day four of Royal Ascot. It’s set to be a hot day both on and off the track with the glorious sunshine expected to continue for one more day. We have two Group 1 races on today’s seven race card the first being a competitive looking Commonwealth Cup (3:05). However, the race of the day is a mouthwatering Coronation Stakes (4:20).  With challengers from Ireland, France and two fillies coming over from the USA. It has a real international feel to it and could be one of the races of the week.

Not sure what’s been happening with the draw on the straight course but on the evidence of the last couple of day’s you need to be drawn middle to far side.

Another full day’s preview with betting advice at the end of the main piece.

2:30 – Albany Stakes (Group 3) – 6f

The juvenile fillies get Friday’s card underway with the latest running of the Group 3 Albany Stakes (2:30). Mediate, trained by Aidan O’Brien, sets the standard having won both career starts. There should be more to come from the daughter of No Nay Never and she looks a worthy market leader. The O’Brien filly faces 17 rivals the best of who look to be Mawj who looked a Group class juvenile filly in the making after a winning racecourse debut at Newmarket last month. The other filly who looks capable of a big run in pattern company is Fully Wet. The daughter of Kodiac overcame inexperience to make a winning racecourse debut at Goodwood (good to soft). She’s capable of going close if handling today’s quicker ground.

3:05 – Commonwealth Cup (Group 1) – 6f

The race should be run to suit Perfect Power. He didn’t stay a mile in the 2,000 Guineas but this more his trip. A top juvenile sprinter last season this could be his chance to land a Group 1 as 3-year-old.

El Caballo comes into the race in great form having won his last six starts. The colt proved he was good on turf as the all-weather when digging deep to hold off Flaming Rib in the Group 2 Sandy Lane Stakes last time. There was a neck between him and Flaming Rib at Haydock, but Ascot’s stiffer track may suit El Cabello better. Wings Of War bounced back to his best when finishing 2 lengths back in third in the Sandy Lane. I can see him going well again and he could be suited by the big-field/strong-pace scenario of the race.

There was plenty to like about Twilight Jet’s seasonal return win at Naas last month. He’s returned to action arguably better than ever and looks to have a big chance.

Tiber Flow had Ehraz a short head back in second when winning a Listed race at Newbury last time.  The winner get’s the application of the first time cheekpieces today and he’s probably capable of better. Ehraz conceded first tun to Tiber Flow that day and finished his race off strongly. He’s well suited to quick ground and the forecast strong pace will suit. A winner of a C&D maiden last season so the track suits and I think he can reverse placings with Tiber Flow.

3:40 – Duke Of Edinburgh Stakes (Handicap) (Class 2) – 1m 4f

Just Fine made a good seasonal reappearance when a 3 length third of 11 at York last time. The return to 1m 4f suited the 4-year-old and a big run is expected by the Sir Michael Stoute trained gelding. Contact maintained his improvement when winning at Haydock last time. A 6lb rise in the weights makes life tougher for the 4-year-old but he shouldn’t be far away with. Candleford had to much pace for some older more exposed handicappers when successful at Kempton in November. He’s been raised 6lb for that win but remains on a competitive mark and if he’s ready to roll after an absence can go close. Mashoor comes into the race in good form after an impressive success in a valuable handicap at the Curragh (1m 2f) last month. He’s 12lb higher but should go well given his unexposed profile, if stall 1 isn’t an inconvenience. Gold Maze made a promising stable debut when a 6 length 5th of 16 in a C&D handicap last time. He will be sharper for that run and can go well at a price. Ajero a very useful handicap hurdler has done well since switching to the flat. The 7-year-old has finished runner-up on all his three starts on the level. A mark of 89 looks more than workable for his handicap debut for the step up to 1m 4f and he’s a very interesting contender.

4:20 – Coronation Stakes (Group 1) – 1m

The race of the day and it could be the race of the week. Last season’s top juvenile filly Inspiral makes a belated seasonal return after being forced to miss the 1,000 Guineas. The form of her Fillies Mile win has proved very strong form. Unbeaten on all her four career starts she will be tough to beat if training on from two to three and is fit from a long layoff. Cachet was beaten 2 ¾ length by Inspiral in the Fillies Mile but she showed she had trained on well when making all to win the 1,000 Guineas and then finishing runner-up in the French 1,000 Guineas. Mangoustine beat Cachet by a head last time. There shouldn’t be much between the pair again, but I think the French filly is open to further improvement if she handles today’s much quicker ground. Prosperous Voyage was a neck behind Cachet in the 1,000 Guineas and today’s stiffer mile could see her reverse placings with the winner. Discoveries was 5 lengths behind the winner in the 1,000 Guineas she was said to have not handled the dip at Newmarket and Ascot should suit her more. Her full sister and half-sister both won this race in the past and a better run can be expected on ground that will suit.

The American challengers Spendarella and Pizza Bianca must be respected. The latter won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf on firm ground with Cachet a length back in fourth. Of the pair preference is for the unbeaten Spendarella. She’s open to further improvement, the ground will suit and if she handles the track, she can go well with William Buick a good jockey booking.

5:00 – Sandringham Stakes (Handicap) (Fillies) (Class 2) – 1m

Heredia did well to win at York after missing the break last time. She’s now 3-3 and although she’s been raised 7lb for her York success she could be the proverbial Group horse in handicap. However, she will need to be off a mark of 98. 

Trainer Charlie Fellowes & jockey Hayley Turner are 2-2 when teaming up in the race and they combine with Fresh Hope.  She still looked a bit green when making a winning handicap debut at Doncaster last time. She’s only been raised 4lb for her latest success but looks on a winnable mark.

Persist built on her juvenile promise when winning a Ripon maiden 23-days ago. Looks on a workable mark for her handicap debut off a mark of 83 and should be bang there from what looks a good draw in stall 11.

Crenelle looked a useful filly when winning a Newmarket maiden two starts back. The runner-up has since gone on to win a Listed race at York. Not as good when stepped up to 1m 2f in the Listed Pretty Polly Stakes last time but must be respected back down to a mile on her handicap debut. Not sure though that stall 24 is ideal given events so far this week on the straight course.

In the same colours as Crenelle is Invigilate who won Leicester maiden on her final juvenile start. The daughter of Acclamation showed improved for the step into handicap company when a 1 length 2^nd of 7 to one of today’s rivals Washraa. The winner is 3lb worse off today and is capable of a good run, but I fancy Invigilate can reverse placings with her today given she was conceding race fitness that day. If it wasn’t for stall 29. I would really fancy her given she’s bred to be better than an 82 rated filly.

Gatecrasher Girl goes well on fast ground, and she’s won all three starts this year. A strongly run mile will suit her and she’s not discounted given her likeable profile. Love Interest seems to be improving with racing and she was a good 3^rd of 12 to Fonteyn in Listed race at York last time. She was keen that day and if he can settle better in today’s bigger field, she’s in with a chance on her handicap debut.

5:35 – King Edward VII Stakes (Group 2) (Colts & Geldings) – 1m 4f

Not the best of renewals it must be said. Changingtheguard finished 9 ¼ length 5^th of 17 in the Derby last time. He probably deserves to be favourite but is vulnerable on quick ground. Ottoman Fleet built on his debut promise when winning a Newmarket Listed race last month. There were still signs of greenness that day and the gelding is open to further improvement for the step up to 1m 4f. Savvy Victory was 1 ¾ lengths behind Ottoman Fleet last time. Today’s track should suit him better than Newmarket, as should the step up to 1m 4f. Whether he wants the ground as quick as is likely today, I’m not so sure.

6:10 – Palace Of Holyroodhouse Stakes (Handicap) (Class 2) – 5f

Twenty eight have been declared for a competitive looking concluding handicap. Most of the pace looks to be down the middle although the speedy Romantic Time will take them along near side. Given the forecast very strong pace It looks like it will pay to go with those more patiently ridden.

Latin Lover will likely be held up from stall 11. He’s got a 6lb penalty for his 6f Kempton success 9-days ago but is likely to be there or thereabouts. Loves Me Likearock has run well on her last two starts at Newmarket over 6f.  I don’t think she handled the dip that well so Ascot should suit her better. Navello will be ridden patiently and likes quick ground. However, he’s vulnerable to better treated rivals although a stiff 5f should suit.

Ladies Church useful juvenile made an excellent seasonal return when neck 2nd of 13 to Sacred Bridge in a Listed race at Cork last month. Trainer Johnny Murtagh’s runners this week have been running well this week and I think she’s got a big chance from a handy draw in stall 14.

Korker improved to win at York last time. His yard won this race last year and although he’s up 9lb for that win won’t be far away if stall 24 isn’t an issue.

Sterling Knight has won both this season’s starts. Both those wins have come over 6f, including here last time. The drop back to 5f shouldn’t be an issue and a 6lb rise in the weights doesn’t look to harsh for the gelding who is going the right way and could be well drawn in stall 12.

At big odds you couldn’t rule out a big performance from Bond Chairman who finished 4^th of 27 in last season’s Listed Windsor Castle Stakes over C&D. First start for 252 days but he did win on his racecourse debut last season so fitness might not be an issue. Stall 28 might not be ideal though, but he’s been gelded since his last run, and doesn’t look badly treated for his handicap debut.

Betting Advice:

Royal Ascot

3:40 – 1pt win – Ajero – 9/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes and 1pt win – Mashoor – 8/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook

4:20 – 1pt win – Spendarella – 10/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

5:00 – 1pt win – Invigilate – 16/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes and 1pt win – Fresh Hope – 7/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook

6:10 – 1pt win – Ladies Church – 6/1 @ Bet365 & Paddy Power and 1pt win – Latin Lover – 10/1 – Gen

Cheers

John

Hi all,

It’s Day 3 at Royal Ascot and its Gold Cup Day with the big race going off at 4:20. In today’s preview I’m looking at all seven races on the card with my selections at the end of the main piece.

Royal Ascot

2:30 – Norfolk Stakes (Group 2) – 5f

The speedy juveniles get the meeting underway. Walbank an expensive purchase at the breeze-ups built on his C&D racecourse debut second to the smart Noble Style when running out an impressive winner at York last month. Looks the one to beat on form. 

Pillow Talk won the Listed Marygate Stakes at York last month. The only filly in the field. Her connections won the Queen Mary yesterday and seem to have a strong hand of useful speedy juvenile fillies. She’s capable of better on just her third start and should go well. Jockey Danny Tudhope seems to prefer Thunder Moor who took a big step forward from his racecourse debut when winning at York last month. He looked a smart prospect at York and it could be significant that Tudhope prefers him to Pillow Talk.

The Antarctic, a half-brother to Battaash has won both his career starts and trainer Aidan O’Brien has saddled the winner of this race twice since 2015.

3:05 – King George V Stakes (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) – 1m 4f

I want to be with the higher drawn horses here. Post Impressionist (13) was a 2 ½ length 2^nd of 14 tp Eldar Eldarov last time. The winner won yesterday’s Queens Vase, so the form is strong, and he looks set to be suited by the step up to 1m 4f. Stablemate Mandobi (18) has won both this season’s starts and proved his stamina for 1m 4f when winning at Thirsk last month. He’s likely capable of better on his handicap debut and looks to have a good draw out wide.

Israr (12) showed a good attitude to prevail in the London Gold Cup (1m 2f) at Newbury last time. He should stay 1m 4f and is open to further improvement. Surrey Mist (7) was ½ length behind Israr at Newbury. He’s another capable of further progress although Israr could be open to more improvement for the step up in trip.

Yashin (4) had Vina Sena (16) 1 ½ lengths back in second when winning at Navan (1m 2f) 19-days ago. The runner-up gets a 6lb pull in the weights so is entitled to get closer today. Yashin is already proven at the trip but Vina Sena looks to have the better of the draw.

Savvy Knight (6) has won all three career starts and can’t be discounted. Nor can the Johnny Murtagh Flying Dolphin (9) who is going the right, is open to further improvement and has stamina for 1m 4f on the dam side of the pedigree.

3:40 – Ribblesdale Stakes (Group 2) (Fillies) – 1m 4f

Sea Silk Road is going the right way and there was plenty to like about her recent Listed success at Goodwood (soft). Looks the sort to better with racing and the daughter of Sea The Stars shouldn’t have any problem with today’s much quicker ground.  Magical Lagoon has the better form after her short head second to Concert Hall on her seasonal return. The step up to 1m 4f should suit her on pedigree and she’s a worthy favourite. Life Of Dreams was a 5 ½ length 2^nd of 5 to Emily Upjohn in the Musidora Stakes at York last time. The step up to 1m 4f should suit her and she remains a promising filly. History looked an improving filly when winning a Group 3 (1m) at Leopardstown on her seasonal return. However, she was well behind Homeless Songs in the Irish 1,000 Guineas last time and although she remains with potential for the step up in distance does have a question to answer after her latest performance.

4:20 – Gold Cup (Group 1) – 2m 4f

Trueshan is a likely non-runner if the ground remains on the quick side. Kyprios has returned to action with two impressive wins and he’s a young stayer on the up. If he stays this marathon trip, every chance on pedigree, then he’s got a great chance of giving Aidan O’Brien an 8^th success in the race. If Kyprios is the up and coming stayer Stradivarius is the old master. The 8-year-old bids for a 4^th Gold Cup success and he gets his ideal underfoot conditions. He did, however, finish 2 ¼ lengths behind Princess Zoe in last year’s race. Princess Zoe showed she’s just as effective on good to firm as soft ground when winning the Sagaro Stakes (2m) here in April. She’s a real stayer and the stronger the stamina test the better her chance.  She shouldn’t be underestimated in her bid to go one better than 12 months ago and if Kyprios doesn’t stay she could be the one to take advantage. The other two mares in the field Bubble Smart and Burning Victory also can’t be totally discounted. The former is a smart stayer whilst the latter showed she’s capable of a smart staying performance when runner-up in last season’s Cesarewitch oner last run on the level.

5:00 – Britannia Stakes (Heritage Handicap) (Colts & Geldings) (Class 2) – 1m

There’s a whole host of potential improvers among the thirty declared runners. None more so than the Charlie Appleby pair of King Of Time & Tranquil Night. Both geldings look to be well berthed in stalls 29 & 30 respectively and both come into the race having won their last starts back in April. William Buick opts for the former who is the better fancied of the pair in the betting, but Tranquil Night shouldn’t be underestimated.

The booking of Jamie Spencer for Newmarket winner (1m 2f) Bolthole is interesting and although the colt is 6lb higher, in a deeper race, he looks capable of a good run back down to a mile. Koy Koy’s 1 length 2^nd of 8 to Outgate on his seasonal reappearance looks good form now. I’m not sure how good stall 8 will be but there’s more to come from him that’s for sure. Wanees is much better drawn in 21. We haven’t seen the colt since his win in the Esher Cup at Sandown in April, but this has been the plan and he won her over 7f last season on good to firm.

The very strong pace will suit Atrium (22)who won over C&D last time. He’s 7lb higher in a better contest but should get the race run to suit and trainer Charlie Fellowes does well at the meeting with his runners on the straight course. He’s more exposed than most but is high on the shortlist. Jimi Hendrix put in a much improved performance when winning at Haydock on his handicap debut last time. Stall 12 could be better, but the colt is going the right way and could well be suited by this stiff mile.

5:35 – Hampton Court Stakes (Group 3) – 1m 2f

Reach For The Moon is likely to go off a hot favourite to give HM The Queen a winner. The colt has yet to race beyond a mile but on pedigree should stay and improve for the step up in distance. The most likely winner. Claymore is another who can improve for the step up to 1m 2f. A winner of his sole juvenile start he finished a 3 ½ length 2^nd of 6 to Native Trail in the Craven Stakes on his seasonal return before finishing last of 15 in the French 2,000 Guineas. That run is best ignored as he did far too much early from his wide draw. He looks the one to give the favourite most to do.

6:10 – Buckingham Palace Stakes (Handicap) (Class 2) – 7f

Montassib made it 3-3 when winning at Goodwood last time. A big field, strongly run 7f should suit the lightly raced 4-year-old who could still make up into a Group performer. He’s been raised 10lb for his latest success which is less of a concern than stall 1.  

Inver Park bids for the hat trick and if today’s extra furlong suits, then the 4-year-old is capable of a big run, albeit stall 2 is off-putting. Tanmawwy is another seeking the hat trick but isn’t certain to be as effective over 7f as he has been over 6f.

Chiefofchiefs (25)might be an 8-year-old, but he goes well on Ascot’s straight course. He’s vulnerable to any improvers in the field but he shaped better than his 8 ½ length 18^th of 27 in the Victoria Cup over C&D suggests, didn’t get the clearest of runs 1f out. He’s well suited to good to firm ground and a strongly run race and won’t be far away. That’s a comment that also applies to Star Of Orion (16). He finished a short head 2^nd of 19 in the International Handicap over C&D last July, from 1lb lower. There’s a nice handicap pot in the 4-year-old who should be all the better for his 6 length 8^th of 27 in the Victoria Cup on his seasonal return.  

Fastnet Crown (12)went into the notebook after his ¾ length 4^th of 25 at Cork two starts back. The 5-year-old is well suited to a big field handicap and although he doesn’t win very often, looks capable of winning off his present mark when all the cards fall right.

Ouzo (27)shaped well on his first start since switching to the Jamie Osborne yard when a neck 2nd of 8 to Rebel Territory at Sandown last time and the front two pulled nicely clear of the rest that day Fourth in last year’s Royal Hunt Cup. He get’s the first time cheekpieces today and he looks on competitive mark, if he’s not inconvenienced by the drop back to 7f.

Betting Advice:

Royal Ascot

3:05 – 1pt win – Mandobi – 14/1 @ Bet365 and 1pt win – Flying Dolphin – 16/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

4:20 – 1pt win – Princess Zoe – 15/2 @ Bet365

5:00 – 1pt win – Wanees – 7/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes and 1pt win – Atrium – 16/1 @ Bet365 & Paddy Power

6:10 – 1pt win – Chiefofchiefs – 14/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes and 1pt win – Star Of Orion – 20/1 @ Bet365

Cheers

John

Hi all,

Today’s selections from Royal Ascot.

Royal Ascot

3:40- 1pt win – Lord North – 15/2 @ Paddy Power

4:20 – 1pt win- Sibila Spain – 15/2 @ Paddy Power

5:00 – 1pt win- Rebel Territory – 16/1 @ Paddy Power and 1pt win – 10/1 @ Ladbrokes

6:10 – 1pt win – White Moonlight – 15/2 @ Paddy Power

Cheers

John

Hi all,

For the first two days of Royal Ascot its selections only. My more in depth previews will return on Thursday.

Royal Ascot – Day 1

3:40 – 1pt win – Mooneista- 12/1 – Gen

4:20 – 1pt win- Mighty Ulysses- 14/1 @ Paddy Power

5:00 – 1pt win- Make My Day – 14/1 @ Paddy Power

6:10 – 1pt win – Okita Soushi- 15/2 @ Paddy Power

Cheers

John

Hi all,

Just a quick post with selections only from York and Chester.

York

2:35- 1pt win- Titan Rock- 12/1 – Gen.

3:40- 1pt win- Roach Power- 9/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

Chester

3:20 – 1pt win- Roman Dragon – 15/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes and 1pt win- Cowboy Justice- 17/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

Cheers

John

Hi all

I wasn’t going to put anymore selections until Saturday but there’s a cracking card at Cork this evening which I couldn’t resist. The highlight of a seven-race card is the Group 3 Munster Oaks (7.10). The supporting races include the Listed Midsummer Sprint Stakes (6:40) and the Cork Derby (7:40). The latter race is handicap and there’s €26,550 on offer to the winner.

Cork

6:40 – Midsummer Sprint Stakes (Listed) – 5f

Gustavus Weston won a Group 2 and Group 3 at the Curragh last season and is the one to beat on official ratings.  However, both those successes came over 6f and he’s yet to find his best form on two runs so far this season.

1pt win – Gustavus Weston – 7/2 @ Bet365

7:10 – Munster Oaks Stakes (Group 3) (Fillies & Mares) – 1m 4f

Ger Lyons won this last year and was also successful in 2019. He saddles two of the ten declared runners: Thunder Kiss & Yaxeni. The first named is the mount of stable jockey Colin Keane and looks the stable pick. However, the latter can’t be totally dismissed as she did win a Listed race last time and has only 4lb to find with her stablemate on official ratings.

Aidan O’Brien has saddled the winner five times since 2014 and has two runners in Lily Pond & Kiss You Later.  The latter is going the right way and got off the mark at the 5^th attempt when winning a Curragh maiden last month. Lily Pond the mount of Ryan Moore does look the pick. The daughter of Galileo won on her racecourse debut at Dundalk in April and then improved further when 4 length 2^nd of 6 in the Group 3 Blue Wind Stakes at Naas last month. She shaped last time like she would improve for the step up to 1m 4f.

Forbearance won three times in 2021, including a Group 3 at Newmarket on her final start. The 5-year-old was 5 lengths behind Thunder Kiss at York on her seasonal return last month. However, that run came over 1m 2 ½ f and her best form has come over today’s trip. If the ground is on the quick side of good (2-2 on good to firm) she’s a serious contender. The 12/1 looks good each value if the rain stays away from Cork. The 12/1 available looks value, if the rain stays away.

Rosscarbery made it 3-3 since switching to the Paddy Twomey yard when easily winning a Roscommon handicap under top-weight last time. A rapidly improving filly she looks worth her place in this company. Her last two wins have come on soft ground but if she’s as effective on a quicker surface won’t be far away.

1pt win – Forbearance – 12/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

7:40 – Cork Derby (Premier Handicap) – 1m 4f

You can make a case for most of the ten runners in the Cork Derby. My pick is the Johnny Murtagh trainer Safecracker. The 4-year-old returned to action with a good 1 length 3^rd of 17 here (1m 2f) in April. He bounced back from a poor effort, on his first try at 1m 4f, when a 4-length 2^nd of 17 to stablemate Mashhoor at the Curragh last time.  Gets the addition of the first time tongue tie for another go at 1m 4f. Given he’s a half-brother to an Irish Derby winner Jack Hobbs he should stay 1m 4f on an easy track like Cork.

1pt win – Safecracker – 11/4 @ Bet365

Good luck with your Wednesday bets.

John

Hi all,

My last selections until Saturday are from Salisbury and Chelmsford.

Salisbury

4:50 – Million Memories is 2 wins from 15 starts (both wins on good to firm) and has top-weight to carry here but I think he’s got a good chance provided the ground is on the quick side of good which looks likely. Yet to win beyond 1m 2f but went close over 1m 3f at Goodwood last September and he was only beaten ¾ length when 2^nd of 10 over C&D in 2020, on his only start over 1m 4f. Down the field on his on his Sandown reappearance 12-days ago. However, he wasn’t subjected to hard race that day and will be fitter for that run. At around 10/1 he looks overpriced and is the pick.

1pt win – Million Memories – 12/1 @ Bet365

Chelmsford

6:45 – Sir Oliver – 5/1 @ Bet365 & Ladbrokes – Had a very productive 2021 winning five times.  Has yet to win at Chelmsford but his career best RPR came over C&D when a head 2^nd of 11 on his latest start. The 5-year-old looks to be going the right way and has a good chance of returning to winning ways here. Silvestre De Sousa up for the first time.

1pt win – Sir Oliver – 5/1 @ Bet365 & Ladbrokes

Cheers

John