Author: John Burke

Hi all,

It’s a low key end to the weekend in Britain & Ireland although the Listed Queen Charlotte Fillies’ Stakes (3:20) is the highlight of an eight-race card at Chelmsford on Sunday afternoon. The consistent Bounce The Blues makes her all-weather debut today. Runner-up on her last two starts she can go one place better if she takes to the surface. She does however face a real Chelmsford specialist in Internationalangel who is 4-4 over C&D and looks a tough rival to my fancy.

Continue reading “Victor’s Sunday Selections – July 3rd 2022”

Hi all,

A new month and as we ended June among the winners so hopefully a better one for the service. I’m at wine tasting event of Friday evening so I decided to get this out early.

The Group 1 Coral-Eclipse (3.35) represents the first clash of the generations in Britain at the highest level. The Sandown card also includes the Charge (1.50), a Group 3 sprint, and the Listed Coral Distaff (3:00).  In the latter race sees recent Royal Ascot winner Herediabids to maintain her unbeaten record and a win here can see her head into Group 1 company.

There’s also high-quality action up at Haydock. The highlights of a seven race card are the Group 2 bet365 Lancashire Oaks (2.40) and the Old Newton Cup Handicap (3.15).

ITV are covering the best of the action from Sandown and Haydock as part of a seven race programme this afternoon.  As ever I have had a look at all the ITV races in this preview and my selections and betting advice can be found at the end of the main piece. Most of today’s selections are from the televised races but I also have one from Sandown in a race not being covered by ITV.

Continue reading “Victor’s Saturday Preview – July 2nd 2022”

Hi all,

Sandown’s Coral-Eclipse meeting gets underway this afternoon with three Listed contests the highlights of a decent seven race card.

I have a couple of selections from Sandown and one from this evening’s meeting at Haydock.

Sandown

The Coral Marathon (2:20) sees the return of the Sir Mark Prescott trained Alerta Roja. The filly improved markedly when a 2 ½ lengths 2^nd of 6 to Stradivarius in the Group 2 Doncaster Cup last September. Granted see was probably flattered by her proximity to the winner but she’s open to further improvement as a 4-year-old and with a weak pace forecast she could get the race run to suit. The form of the Sir Mark Prescott yard remains a slight concern but at 7/2 or better his runner is the pick

The Listed Gala Stakes (4:05) see’s former Group 1 winner Addeybb installed as the short price favourite. He’ll be sharper for his 6-length 3rd of 5 to Bay Bridge in Brigadier Gerard Stakes over C&D. He shouldn’t face much pace pressure although Passion And Glory could go forward.  Provided there’s some ease in the ground he can make his class advantage count.  His main rivals seem to be Harrovian and Regal Reality.  The pair were 3^rd and 4^th respectively in the Listed Wolferton Stakes at Royal Ascot last time. The latter was doing his best work at the finish but wouldn’t want the race to get tactical. Harrovian is likely to be better placed. However, he won’t want the ground to ease much further as he needs quick ground to show his best. If he gets his underfoot conditions he looks overpriced at around 9/1.

Haydock

7:08 – I’m taking a chance here that Bond Power is effective on soft ground. He seemed to handle it when a 2 ½ length 2^nd of 10 to El Caballo at Carlisle on his juvenile racecourse debut last May.  A winner at Beverley (good to firm) on his nursery debut last season. Put in a better effort than his seasonal return when a 3 ½ length 3rd of 6 at Ripon last time. The first time cheekpieces are an interesting addition. If the ground is suitable, I can seem him going close in a slightly lesser race than last time.

Betting Advice:

Sandown

2:20 – 1pt win – Alerta Roja – 7/2 – Gen

4:05 – 1pt win – Harrovian – 9/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook

Haydock

7:08 – 1pt win – Bond Power – 10/1 @ Bet365

Cheers

John

Hi all,

The end of another challenging month for the service. Let’s hope we can end it with a winner.

Epsom

7:45 – Marley Park goes well at Epsom with form figures 2213. The 4-year-old’s last win came over C&D in September and he finished a ½ length 3^rd of 9 over C&D on his last visit from 2lb higher. Only 4^th of 6 at Lingfield last time but capable of much better run returned to a venue that suits.

1pt win – Marley Park – 13/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

Tipperary

6:10 – Sole Pretender – Last year’s winner of the Grimes Hurdle bids for back-to-back wins and comes into the race having won his last two starts over fences. He looks set for another bold run in the race and could be the one to beat again albeit this year’s renewal looks a bit stronger than 12 months ago.

1pt win – Sole Pretender – 5/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

7:20 – Moving Water had looked much improved for the step up 2m 4f when winning a Wexford maiden hurdle last time. The 5-year-old needs to find a bit more improvement on his handicap hurdle debut but is probably capable of finding it given his profile.

1pt win – Moving Water – 11/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

Cheers

John

Hi all,

It was good to get off the cold list with a couple of winners at Roscommon last evening.

Continue reading “Victor’s Wednesday Selections – June 29th 2022”

Hi all,

I’m off to Roscommon today for a few selections although the Irish track does have to pass a precautionary 8am inspection due to forecast heavy overnight rain.

Roscommon

High class hurdler Jason The Militant who missed the last winter jumps season returns in the Listed Lenebane Stakes (7.40). The rain has come at the right time for the 8-year-old who relishes the mud. Two from two on the flat with the latest of those wins coming in Listed company at Naas (heavy) last October. However, he does face several interesting rivals including recent winners Beamish & Fumato.

Fumato looked a nice staying prospect when winning a Leopardstown maiden (good) last month and if he handles today’s much softer ground should go well. Beamish, hails from the very inform Paddy Twomey yard who is 4-9 with his runners at Roscommon. The 4-year-old looked a smart prospect when winning at Killarney last month. That win came over 1m 6f but he should be inconvenienced by the drop back to 1m 4f on rain softened ground. He’s only had two career starts winning both and looks capable of holding his own in Listed company

Dha Leath made it 2-3 since joining the Gavin Cromwell yard when beating Bay Of Bengal at Gowran Park 22-days ago. The runner-up has given the form a good boast when winning at The Curragh at the weekend. She’s going the right way and although she got a 4lb rise in the weight for that win she remains on a competitive looking mark for the Connolly’s Red Mills Handicap (7:10).

The 1m 2f Dermot Hughes Car Sales Handicap (6:40). Herring Island the winner of Navan maiden (1m) on just his second juvenile start looks on a workable for handicap debut/seasonal return. He’s bred to appreciate 1m 2f+ and it was soft ground when he won at Navan. Elmos Fire produced a career best when getting off the mark at fifth attempt at Listowel last time. That maiden win came over a mile, but he should stay 1m 2f and he could be capable of more progress on just his second start in handicap company. Hymn Book Too has improved for the step up to 1m 2f+ on her last two starts. The 3-year-old finished a 5 ¼ length 3^rd of 12 to subsequent Group 1 winner Above The Curve, the runner-up went onto win the Cheshire Oaks on her next start, before going to win a Tipperary maiden when stepped up to 1m 4f last time. The testing ground really suited her at Tipperary so the softer the ground the better for her now dropped back in trip again. Not sure about the trip for Mister Wilson but he’s respected on his 1 ½ length 2^nd of 10 in the valuable Madrid Handicap at Naas on his penultimate start. The winner Markaz Paname went on to win a Group 3 on his nest start. The 3-year-old did run poorly at Haydock when stepped back up to a mile last time though. At least the ground will be in his favour and if his stamina holds out, he’s in the mix. Steps In The Sand has run better on her last two starts than her final positions suggest. She was hampered 1f out when 4^th of 9 (1m 4f) here two starts back and then did best of those who raced prominently when a 1 ½ length 6th of 15 at Limerick last time. Three pounds out of the handicap here and really testing ground would be an unknown.

Betting Advice:

Roscommon

6:40 – 1pt win – Hymn Book Too – 8/1 – Gen and 1pt win – Steps In The Sand – 12/1 @ Bet365

7:10 – 1pt win – Dha Leath – 5/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

7:40 – 1pt win – Beamish – 4/1 @ Bet365

Cheers

John

Hi all,

All eyes on the Curragh for the final day of the Dubai Duty Free Irish Derby Festival.  There’s more Group 1 action with the highlight of an eight race card being the Pretty Polly Stakes (3.45).

Nine fillies have stood their ground for the Pretty Polly which has €177,000 on offer to the winner. Ok, there’s no Tuesday, Emily Upjohn or Nashwa but it looks a fascinating race, nonetheless. It provides an opportunity for the 3-year-old fillies to meet the older generation for the first time at Group 1 level. As the likes of La Petite Coco, Dreamloper and My Astra taking on the classic generation in the shape of Purplepay and Concert Hall.

Group 2 Airlie Stud Stakes (2.10) could see a Group 1 juvenile filly emerge. As the unbeaten Aidan O’Brien filly Statuette takes on two other unbeaten fillies in Zarinsk and Papilio. Two Premier Handicaps the Rockingham (3:10) and the ‘Ragusa’ (4:20) add spice to what looks a competitive day’s race.

There’s one flat meeting in Britain today at Windsor. However, the best of the action this side of the Irish Sea are jumps cards at Uttoxter & Cartmel. The latter has stages to Class 2 handicaps which are the feature races of a seven race card.

Uttoxeter also has two Class 2 handicaps. However, the feature contest is the valuable bet365 Summer Cup (3:00), over 3m 2f. Eighteen handicap chasers have been declared for the race which has £42,713 on offer to the winner and is one of the most valuable races of the summer jumps campaign.

In today’s preview I have had a look at five races at the Curragh and the Summer Cup at Uttoxeter.

Curragh

The ground was quick on Friday evening, but rain has been forecast for the rest of the weekend with possibly as much as 12mm by Sunday lunchtime

2:10 – Airlie Stud Stakes (Group 2) – 6f

The superbly bred Statuette made an impressive winning racecourse debut at Navan and missed the Albany Stakes at Royal Ascot, which won by her stablemate Mediate, to come here. There are two other unbeaten fillies in the line-up in Zarinsk and Papilio.  The first named who hails from the inform Ger Lyons yard. The daughter of Kodiac made a winning debut over C&D last month.  She only won by neck but is open to plenty of improvement. Papilio also won a C&D maiden last month.  Another open to plenty of progress and she won’t be inconvenienced if the forecast heavy rain arrives overnight.

2:40 – Sherry FitzGerald Country Homes Handicap – 6f

A neck separated Lord Dudley & Blairmayne when the pair where first and second in Cork Premier Handicap over 7f last month. The runner-up who has winning C&D form gets 2lb today and there shouldn’t be much between them again. Lord Dudley is drawn in 19 while Blairmayne is 7.

Rough Diamond a winner at Naas two starts back wasn’t best positioned from his high draw when a 3 ¼ length 7th of 18 over C&D last time. He shouldn’t be far away if stall 2 isn’t an inconvenience this time. Stablemate Heavenly Power won a C&D maiden (soft) last August and wasn’t disgraced when a 6 ½ length 2nd of 18 to all the way winner Verhoyen over C&D on his seasonal return. He gets 14lb from that one today and given he’s only had six career starts so we might not have seen the best of the 4-year-old.

The pace looks to be mostly high which brings Goodnight Girl into the mix. The mare who beat Lord Dudley over C&D last August was a ¾ length 2^nd of 17 in the race 12 months ago but may not want the ground to ease too much further.

3:10 – Paddy Power Rockingham Handicap (Premier Handicap) – 5f

Blind Beggar’s sole win remains a Catterick maiden last May. Has run well on all four starts since switching to Ger Lyons. The way he travelled over 6f at Fairyhouse last time suggests a stiff 5f should suit. The first time blinkers are applied and if they have the desired effect, he can go close. Colin Keane doesn’t ride but he likely can’t do 8-7 these days. Big Gossey is 3lb above his last winning mark which came here over 6f last September. The 5-year-old has improved with each of his five starts this season and there was plenty to like about his neck 2nd of 9 to Moss Tucker at Fairyhouse last time with Blind Beggar ¾ length back in third. The early money was for the David O’Meara trained Alligator Alley. He’s very well treated on his juvenile form for Joseph O’Brien. The 5-year-old bounced back from a below par effort at York when a 2 ¼ length 4th of 14 to Mr Wagyu at Epsom (6f) last time.  He looked the most likely winner when coming to challenge 1f out that day before just fading out in the final half furlong. There’s a decent pot in him off his present mark over 5f this season when all the cards fall right. Erosandpsyche shaped well on his seasonal return and first start for Paddy Twomey when a 2 ¼ length 3rd of 18 to Additional here over 6f last month. He gets a handy 6lb today and the drop back to 5f seems likely to suit him better than the winner, both career wins have come at the minimum trip. The addition of the first visor also makes him more interesting.

3:45 – Alwasmiyah Pretty Polly Stakes (Group 1) – 1m 2f

An absolute cracker of a renewal for this clash of the generations.  William Haggas brings over My Astra & Purplepay. The latter ran well when 6^th of 14 in the Irish 1,000 Guineas on her seasonal reappearance before going onto win a Group 2 at Chantilly earlier this month. The step up to 1m 2f should suit her on pedigree and if the forecast rain arrives her claims become stronger. My Astra looked a potential Group 1 horse when running out a 12-length winner of an Ayr Listed race last time. Like he stablemate a bit of ease in the ground will suit. The lightly arced 4-year-old is open to further improvement and can go well. Dreamloper a Newmarket Group 2 winner on her return maintained her improvement when winning the Group 1 Prix d’Ispahan at Longchamp last time. A strongly run 1m 2f will test her stamina but she won’t be far away if she stays. La Petite Coco was an improving 3-year-old at this distance last season ending it with a hard fought short head success over Love in the Group 2 Blandford Stakes over C&D. She should prove up to winning at Group 1 level this season, but it may come over 1m 4f. The 4-year-old also has a 287-day absence to overcome which won’t be easy against some classy and race fit rivals. Concert Hall didn’t seem to fail for stamina when a 4 ½ length 4th of 11 to Tuesday in the Epsom Oaks last time. Looks set for another big performance, despite the drop back in distance, if this doesn’t come to quick

4:20 – Irish Stallion Farms EBF “Ragusa” Handicap (Premier Handicap) – 1m 4f

Dame Rapide has really improved this season winning both her starts at Leopardstown and here over two furlongs further last month. She’s up another 13lb for her latest success but it would a be a brave punter who took the position that her improvement has stopped. Another to have improved this season is Aingeal Dorcha who has won 2-4 of his four starts and put in a personal best when winning at Limerick 15-days ago. The step up to an extended 1m 3f suited the 4-year-old last time and although he’s been raised 6lb he’s going the right way.

Uttoxeter

3:00 – bet365 Summer Cup (An Open Handicap Chase) (Listed Race) – 3m 2f

The Tizzard yard has saddled the winner of this valuable prize twice since 2017 and Joe could add his name to the winning trainers today with Sizing Cusimano. The 9-year-old is a three time course winner, including C&D last June. He returned from 259-day absence as good as ever when beating four rivals at Newton Abbot last month. He’s got a 10lb hike in the weights to defy in a deeper race, but he goes well on good ground and the yard couldn’t be in better from. Neville’s Cross looked better than ever when beating three rivals at Kempton last month. He’s been raised 6lb for that success but looks progressive, is well suited to good ground and should give another good account here. Another on an upward curve is Gats And Co who impressed with his jumping when beating three rivals at Ffos Las 24-days ago. That was the 7-year-old’s fourth win in handicap chase company in 2022. He’s been raised 8lb, but we probably haven’t seen the best of him just yet and it’s interesting that connections come here rather than put him away until the autumn.

Betting Advice:

Curragh

2:40 – 1pt win – Blairmayne – 12/1 – Gen and 1pt win – Heavenly Power – 12/1 @ Bet365

3:10 – 1pt win – Big Gossey – 16/1 @ Bet365 and 1pt win – Blind Beggar – 12/1 @Bet365

4:20 – 1pt win – Aingeal Dorcha – 9/1 – Gen

Uttoxeter

3:00 – 1pt win – Gats And Co – 6/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook and 1pt win – Sizing Cusimano – 12/1 @ Bet365

Cheers

John

Hi all,

A veritable feast of top class racing over the next couple of days.  It’s the second day of the Irish Derby Festival with the Dubai Duty Free Irish Derby going off at 3:45. This side of the Irish Sea it’s the valuable Northumberland Plate at Newcastle.  You can watch the Irish Derby and the best of the action from Newcastle & Newmarket on the main ITV channel.

I have already looked at the Irish Derby and the Northumberland Plate earlier in the week. So today I have focused on the three other Newcastle races on ITV.

Tuesday on a Saturday

The field for the Irish Derby has cut up a bit with the just the dead eight declared. The big names Westover & Tuesday remain as do the likes of Hannibal Barca, Lionel, and Piz Badile.  As I mentioned in Thursday’s race preview. I think Tuesday will have too much speed for Westover and can become the first filly since Balanchine to win the race. Both Hannibal Barca and Lionel look progressive, and the latter is interesting at around 10/1 if the rain arrives.

Can Trueshan defy top weight?

It will be some weight carrying performance if Trueshan was to defy 10-8 to land this season’s Northumberland Plate (3:30). The 6-year-old wasn’t beaten far in last year’s race off a huge weight and Hollie Doyle is available to ride. Mind you that does mean there will be a lot of lead in the saddle. Still, I expect this classy stayer to run well.

It would be great to Brian Ellison finally the Plate. His runner Onesmoothoperator has plenty of course from and has yet to finish outside the first three on his six starts at the track.

Valley Forge improved for the step up to 2m when winning at Haydock last month. Unexposed as a stayer. He’s yet to race on the synthetics but on pedigree there’s no reason to suggest he won’t handle it.

I gave Uber Cool a favourable mention at 33/1 in my Wednesday Daily Punt column.  Looks like other saw the 8-year-old as overpriced as he’s now a best priced 18/1 with Paddy Power. It’s his first run since November but he won first time up last season off an even longer absence. I have him at 16/1 on my tissue.

Newcastle

1:50 – The first Newcastle race on ITV is the Class 2 Pertemps Network Handicap (6f). Twelve have been declared for this sprint handicap. Strike Red is 2-2 over C&D and the 4-year-old put in his effort of the season when a ½-length 4th of 10 at Hamilton last time.

Sound Reason hasn’t run on the synthetics since winning here over 5f early last year.  He built on his seasonal reappearance promise when beating seven rivals at Haydock (5f) last month. Up 5lb for that success but he’s going the right way and is totally unexposed over 6f.

Raatea ran well enough on both starts here last year to think he’s effective on the surface. Hasn’t built on his Newmarket seasonal return performances on either start since have been great but he could easily bounce back here.

2:25 – Pertemps Network Chipchase Stakes (Group 3) – 6f

More 6f sprinters for the Group 3 Pertemps Network Chipchase Stakes (2:25). Sense Of Duty heads the betting after a hard-fought success in the Listed Cecil Frail Stakes at Haydock last month. The runner-up boosted the form of that race since finishing third in the Commonwealth Cup. The three-year-old should improve further and looks worth her place in pattern company.

Glen Shiel heads the official ratings and his form figures over C&D are 211. The first of those successes came in the 6f handicap on this card in 2020. The 8-year-old went onto win the Group 1 Champion Sprint at Ascot on Champions Day that season. Finished runner-up in the same race in 2021 and in the Diamond Jubilee at Royal Ascot.  He hasn’t been at his best so far this season, but a better run could be forthcoming back here.

Group 1 winning juvenile Ebro River hasn’t been at his best on either start this season but seemed to be working back to form in a Group 3 at Chantilly last month. He might not be able to reproduce his juvenile best as a 3-year-old but if he does, he’s very much in the mix.  

Judicial won this in 2020 and was a 1¾ lengths 8th of 14 to Bouttemont in All-Weather Sprint Championships Final over C&D last time. He got place claims. The same can be said of Spycatcher who showed he was suited by C&D when a head third in that All-Weather Sprint Championships Final. He gets the first time cheekpieces here and the stronger the gallop the better his chance.

2:55 – Jenningsbet Northumberland Vase Handicap – 2m ½ f

Nineteen have been declared for the consolation race for the Northumberland Plate. My three against the field are: Monsieur Lambrays, Wise Eagle, Zoffee and Geremia.

If the go a good gallop you can’t rule out the talented, but tricky Monsieur Lambrays who was first past the post at Nottingham last time but lost the race in the stewards room. Another who will appreciate a strong pace is the consistent Ravens Ark who was a ½ length 2^nd of 9 at Goodwood 15-days ago.

Wise Eagle is 3-6 at the track so no issues with the surface for the 5-year-old and he’s 2-4 over today’s trip. He’s down to his last winning mark and must be high on the shortlist.

Zoffee showed a good battling attitude to win at Carlisle (1m 6f) last month. This sort of stamina test should suit this winning hurdler and he’s respected on first start on the surface.

I put Geremia up in my eyecatcher column, after his running on 2-length 3^rd of 17 over today’s distance at York two starts back. Wasn’t in the same form at Musselburgh last time but I’m happy to ignore that run as the track probably didn’t suit. The 4-year-old is 3-3 on the all-weather for his previous yard and although he’s yet to run on the tapeta he should be fine on it. Newcastle’s long straight will suit even if stall 18 isn’t ideal. However, he will be dropped and ridden for luck and if he gets the breaks there’s a nice pot in him.

Curragh

I have not put up anything in the Irish Derby and won’t be having a bet until I know how the ground is. There are three handicaps on the Curragh card, and they offer potential betting opportunities.

2:00 – Ice Cold Alex ran well for third on Friday evening which maintained the recent good form of the Ken Condon yard.  The trainer has a couple of runners in this Summer Fillies Handicap (Premier Handicap) in Affable & Needle Lace. The latter has done well since being dropped back in trip by her new trainer winning a mile maiden at Limerick and then running well on both handicap starts since. Given the way she travels the drop to 7f may not be an inconvenience.  Night Of Romance was back to winning ways at Gowran Park 13-days ago. She’s been hit with a 9lb rise in the weights but shouldn’t be far away.

4:50 – Plenty of the nineteen runners in this 1m Premier Handicap have claims. A lot depends how the ground rides. The likes of Fastnet Crown & Star Harbour have good C&D big field handicap form, but I suspect connections will be hoping the rain stays away.  If it does both have serious win claims. Fastnet Crown get the first time cheekpieces and must be of interest, after decent run at Royal Ascot, if he gets his ground.

Carrytheone has run well on both his starts this season and has form with both Fastnet Crown and Star Harbour. There is a nice pot like this in him when all the cards fall right but this former C&D winner might want a bit more juice in the ground.

No More Porter’s form figures at the Curragh 112. A winner over C&D (yielding) last August and was an excellent 1 ¼ length 2nd of 27 to Celtic Crown over C&D last time. He can race off the same mark and you can see why he’s favourite. That said at 100/30 he’s plenty short enough and he might prefer the ground to ease a bit before post time. It was quick enough on Friday evening with a few non-runners on account of the quickening ground.  

Pierre Lapin caught the eye in that race finishing a 1 ½ length fourth to Celtic Crown. He has just ¼ length to find with No More Porter on that running and provided the ground doesn’t ease to much I think the 5-year-old can take advantage of handy enough mark these days.

Hard to know what to expect Dante’s Pass on his seasonal reappearance. He’s just had the three starts as a juvenile and makes his handicap debut here. He should be capable of more improvement as a 3-year-old, but this is tough race to make a winning return to action.

5:25 – Bay Of Bengal made a winning racecourse debut at Gowran Park and improved again when a length 2nd of 14 back at the same venue on her handicap debut. She’s open to further improvement and can race off the same mark as last time. The 4-year-old does face some experienced handicappers in and Chicago Bear and Finians Bay who both have good form at the track. The former bids for the hat trick after win’s here (1m) and at Leopardstown (1m 1f) last time. He’s 7lb higher but today’s extra furlong could bring out even more improvement in the 4-year-old who has a good chance of adding another win before he sets off for new career in Australia. Finians Bay must be respected if reproducing the form of his ½ length 4^th of 23 over C&D last September. He’s now 5lb lower and needs respecting off top-weight. Crystal Black was one place in front of Finians Bay in that race and is a contender but is 4lb worse off today. Loingseoir won here over a mile last October but also has winning form over 1m 2f and wasn’t disgraced when a 7 ½ length 3^rd of 19 to Mashhoor over C&D last month.

Betting Advice:

Newcastle

1:50 – 1pt win – Sound Reason – 15/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

2:25 – 1pt win – Ebro River – 7/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

2:55 – 1pt win – Monsieur Lambrays – 12/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes and 1pt win – Geremia – 7/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

3:00 – 1pt each way – Uber Cool – 18/1 @ Bet365 (paying 6 places 1/5 odds) and 1pt win – Onesmoothoperator – 8/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

Curragh

2:00 – 1pt win – Needle Lace – 14/1 @ Ladbrokes

4:50 – 1pt win – Pierre Lapin – 13/2 @ Bet365

5:25 – 1pt win – Finians Bay – 14/1 @ Bet365

Cheers

John

Hi all,

A second day at racing at Newcastle with the Group 3 Hoppings Fillies’ Stakes (7.10) the feature race of a seven-race card.

For those of you like me who like a competitive sprint handicap there’s the Gosforth Park Cup Handicap (6.35) to look forward. Fourteen have been declared for this 5f handicap which looks the most interesting from a betting perspective.

Across the Irish Sea it’s the first of three days racing at the Curragh as the Irish Derby Festival gets underway. The highlight of a seven-race card which includes a four big field handicaps is the Group 2 Comer Group International Curragh Cup (6.43).  Eight have been declared for a race which Aidan O’Brien has won six times since 2012. Aidan runs three Wordsworth, Sussex and Temple Of Artemis in this year’s race.  Meanwhile son Joseph has won the race twice since 2017 and saddles two Master Of Reality & Gear Up.

In today’s preview I have had a look at the two big Newcastle races and no less than five from the Curragh. Selections and betting advice follow at the end of the main piece.

Newcastle

7:10 – Jenningsbet Hoppings Fillies’ Stakes (Group 3) – 1m 2f

My Astra a 12-length winner of an Ayr Listed race last time will be hot favourite to give William Haggas a second win in the race. The 4-year-old looked a potential Group 1 horse last time and although it’s her first start on the tapeta, her half-brother My Oberon won here and her sire Lope De Vega has plenty of winners on the surface.

Her main rivals look to be Potapova and Rogue Millennium. The former ran well when a 1 ¼ length 2nd of 10 in the Group 3 Princess Elizabeth Stakes at Epsom last time. She seems to be getting better with racing and she’s won on the polytrack. Rogue Millennium one of two 3-year-old’s the other being Moon De Vega. Finished 7^th in the Oaks last time. The Lingfield Oaks Trial winner looked she might get into the placings 2f out but just weakened out of it to finish 7th. This is more her level, and she remains capable of more improvement. Moon De Vega finished a further 3 ¾ lengths back in 8^th in the Oaks but was rather disappointing. Hopes are pinned on her appreciating the new surface and the drop back in trip.

6:35 – Jenningsbet Gosforth Park Cup Handicap (Class 2) – 5f

Top-weight Venturous has won five times at Newcastle, including 4-7 5 placed over C&D. He was a 1 ¾ length 6^th of 14 in last year’s race but was disappointing at York in May. Tom Marquand who is 2-3 keeps faith with the 9-year-old and he looks set for another big run.

Count D’Orsay was ¼ length behind Venturous in 7th 12 months ago. He was hampered at the start that day and is 5lb better of with that one today. He’s on a long losing run but has plenty of good efforts that make him look well treated and he deserves a change of look. Stablemate Copper Knight landed this in 2018 and was back to winning ways when beating seven rivals at Chester with Count D’Orsay back in third 13-days ago. Granted he’s gone up 6lb, but he finished a ¾ length 2^nd of 13 in the 2019 renewal off 2lb higher so isn’t out of it given he looked as good as ever last time.

Stone Of Destiny has dropped down to a tempting mark. He’s another on a losing run though, last success came in the Portland Handicap at Doncaster in September 2020. A strong finishing 1 ¾ length 3rd of 16 after an interrupted passage in last year’s Epsom Dash but was only 6^th of 20 in this year’s race. The 7-year-old hasn’t hit last year’s best form yet and the first-time blinkers are given a go now. A strongly run stiff 5f looks a bare minimum these days. However, if the headgear sharpens him up then he’s handicapped to go well and he’s run well on his three previous runs here.

Curragh

The Irish Derby Festival gets going this evening and it looks a cracking three days of racing. It’s also the meeting that provides Friday’s selection.

The going at the Curragh is good, good to firm in places but there’s some rain forecast for the next few days so it shouldn’t get any quicker.  Looking first at the most valuable race on the card.

6:43 – Comer Group International Curragh Cup (Group 2) – 1m 6f

Wordsworth didn’t stay 2m 5 ½ f when a 4 ½ length 7th of 12 to Stratum in Queen Alexandra Stakes at Royal Ascot last Saturday. The drop back in trip should be in his favour and his stablemate Sussex looks set to set the pace. It all depends how hard a race he had last time. The other Aidan O’Brien runner is the 3-year-old Temple Of Artemis who won a Chester handicap last month. He’s likely capable of more improvement and did hold an Irish Derby entry.

Joseph O’Brien saddles Master Of Reality & Gear Up. The first named who finished runner-up in the 2020 Melbourne Cup isn’t as good as he once was but he wasn’t far behind Wordsworth on his seasonal return here last time and is entitled to closer to that one here if building on that run. Gear Up made all to win to win a minor race at Gowran Park last time that was his first success since winning a Group 1 as juvenile when trained by Mark Johnson. Stamina for 1m 6f to be proven though.

Camorra won a Group 3 at Leopardstown (1m 4f) last October but he’s yet to be at his best so far and both start this season including behind Wordsworth & Master Of Reality last time. The blinkers do return for the first time this season and the 5-year-old isn’t of this back to his best. Manu Et Corde well beaten by Stone Age and Piz Badile on his first two starts was back to something like his juvenile best when a 1 ¾ length 3rd of 7 in the Ulster Derby (Premier Handicap) 6-days ago. The step up to 1m 4f suited last time and he could do even better over further.

6:08 – Mutasarref looks to have plenty of weight with 10-2 but did enough to suggest this sort of mark is workable when a 2 lengths 6^th of 27 to Celtic Crown here over a mile last time. He’s run well on all three starts this season, has been dropped 1lb since his last run and the drop back to 7f will suit. This ease in class for the 4-year-old who looks a solid enough mark leader.

Cosmic Vega a close -up 2^nd of 15 at Roscommon last month should go well but he may need softer ground.

River Derwent was an eyecatching 2^nd of 17 over C&D on his seasonal return but hasn’t managed to build on that promise on two subsequent starts. His yard is hot form though and a return to this venue could see him go better. Stablemate National Gallery won’t be able to dominate this field like he did when beating seven rivals at Limerick last time. Given the yards form he’s respected, and he went close in handicap company over C&D three starts back.

Bobby K produced a much improved performance when beating 11 rivals at Listowel 20-days ago. After that win his trainer felt the 7-year-old would be better suited by a flatter like the Curragh. Up 5lb for his latest win but remains on a competitive mark, albeit this is better race than at Listowel.

The connections of Ice Cold In Alex will be hoping the forecast rain stays away. The 8-year-old needs a strong pace to chase as he got 12 months ago when winning this race off today’s mark. His record at the Curragh, on good/good to firm ground and when racing between 11 to 30-days since his last start is 3 wins from 8 runs +23.5 6 placed. If all the cards fall right, I’m expecting him to go very close.

7:18 – Tudor City maybe a 10-year-old but showed there was plenty of life in the veteran when winning a Punchestown handicap hurdle last month. Fairly treated on the best of his form, was 5-length 3^rd of 19 in this race last season and should give a good account in the hands of inform apprentice Jake Coen.

Auckland put in a personal best on the flat when a 2-length 3^rd of 18 at Leopardstown (1m 5f) last time. He’s been nudged up a 1lb but the drop back a furlong in distance shouldn’t be an issue for the 5-year-old provided there is the forecast decent gallop.

Alma Libre is a seven race maiden, but she’s run well on her last two starts, looks fairly treated and worth a try at 1m 4f. Jake Coen who rode her last time is on Tudor City.

Joseph O’Brien has saddled the winner of this contest in 2016 & 2020, and he has one of the one of the most interesting of the twenty runners in Common Practice. The 3-year-old has only had the five career starts all at around 7f. He posted a career best when a strong finishing 2-length 4^th of 7 at Listowel 19-days ago. The form of that race seems to be working out nicely the second won a Naas Listed race on Wednesday and the third National Gallery has won since. Give that was the geldings first start since October he’s entitled to be sharper today. He takes a big jump in distance here, but his dam won over 1m 2f. If he does stay 1m 4f a mark of 74 could be very lenient. And it looks like the early betting thinks so too.

7:53 – Twenty four runners but this 1m 1f handicap looks the weakest of the evening. The pace is forecast to be strong so it could pay to side with the more patiently ridden runners. That said you must respect the claims of the Joseph O’Brien trained filly Corky who put up an improved effort when a ½-length 2nd of 11 on handicap debut in the Ulster Oaks (1m 2 ½ f) at Down Royal 6-days ago. Granted she got the run of the race out in front that day, but she looks progressive and if she’s not inconvenienced by the further drop back in trip should go well.

Morning Approach broke a long losing run when winning at Leopardstown (good to firm) 8-days ago. An extra furlong to race here and 4lb higher but is in form and that shouldn’t be underestimated if getting a sound surface.

Both Howyoulikethat’s wins have come on the all-weather at a mile, but she showed she could be effective on turf when a 4 ½ length 5th of 15 at Fairyhouse last month. She’s been dropped 1lb and Billy Lee is back in the saddle

Miss Cunning has been in good form this season winning at Listowel (1m) two starts back and still looked well treated when stepped up to 1m 4f when a length fourth of 17 at Fairyhouse two weeks ago. The forecast pace will suit her hold up style and given her present form has to be high on the shortlist despite the drop back in distance.

8:28 – The Dermot Weld trained Dalton Highway bids for a hat trick of wins in the race. He clearly can’t be ruled out but he’s 9lb higher this time around and doesn’t have the benefit of a recent run this time around. Weld looks to have stronger claims with Kazakdaria. The lightly raced 4-year-old returned from 9 months off with a solid 5 ½ length 3^rd of 13 here (1m 6f) 23-days ago. Doing her best work at the finish that day and could do better over today’s 2m trip.

You must respect a Willie Mullins stayer and he runs Maze Runner and Foveros. The first named was 3^rd of 30 in the Irish Cesarewitch over C&D last autumn and must be respected if reproducing that run here. Likewise, Foveros has good form over the trip on the flat. Both probably need a bit of ease in the ground.

Nuits St Georges is competitively weighted on his best form for previous trainer David Menuisier on just his second start for Henry De Bromhead. Like the Mullins pair rain softened ground won’t inconvenience him.

Monty’s Way made it 2-6 and looked much improved for the step up to 2m 1f when beating ten rivals at Killarney last month. It was soft last time but his previous success came on good ground, so he seems ground versatile. He’s been raised 8lb for his latest win but is unexposed over 2m  and the yard couldn’t be in better form.

Shanroe is lightly raced for an 8-year-old but he’s 3-7 on the flat. The latest of those wins came here over 1m 6f last June. Career best effort on the flat came when the 8-year-old was a 3-length 4^th of 20 in last season’s Ebor Handicap at York. First run since October but has gone well off a lay off in the past. He should stay 2m and looks interesting if ready to roll first time on a track that suits.

Betting Advice:

Newcastle

6:35 – 1pt win – Copper Knight – 10/1 @ Bet365 and 1pt win – Venturous – 12/1 @ Bet365

Curragh

6:08 – 1pt win – Ice Cold In Alex – 7/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

7:18 – 1pt win – Tudor City – 8/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

7:53 – 1pt win – Howyoulikethat – 14/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes and 1pt win – Miss Cunning – 10/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

8:28 – 1pt win – Monty’s Way – 7/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

Cheers

John

Hi all,

Just one selection from Leicester this evening but its going to be a busy weekend. with the Irish Derby Festival getting underway at the Curragh on Friday evening and the Northumberland Plate Meeting at Newcastle on Friday & Saturday.

Leicester

6:45 – Blackheath is increasingly looking regressive and he’s 0-13, 1 place since switching to Michael Dods yard. On the plus side the 7-year-old is a former C&D winner and all three of his turf wins have come on good to firm/firm ground.  Today’s field size looks another positive as he’s 4-16 +9.25 9 placed when racing in field sizes 11 & under. Compared with 0-26 3 placed in race with 12+ runners. Not one for maximum faith but the yard is among the winners. The first time visor replaces the cheekpieces which looks a last throw of the dice but provided the ground is on the fast side I think we’ll see a much better performance from him.

1pt win – Blackheath – 15/2 @ Gen.

Cheers

John