Author: John Burke

Hi all,

Well it’s the start of the Irish Flat season on Sunday as Naas hosts the Lincolnshire Handicap and this time next week over this side of the Irish Sea, we’ll be preparing for the start of the UK flat season with Doncaster’s Lincoln Meeting.

This Saturday the ITV cameras are heading to Kelso, for one of their best cards of the season, and Newbury. At the latter track the feature race is EBF Mares Novice’s Hurdle Series Final.

As I mentioned last week. My horses to follow at this stage of the jumps season tend to follow into two categories:

• Horses that are being aimed at races at the remaining spring festivals like, Aintree, Ayr or Punchestown.

• Horses for the next jumps season.

The latter group tend to be numerically small but there are usually handful to carry on into the next jumps season.

March is also a month when I start to cull horses from the tracker to create space for the upcoming flat season.

This Week’s Horses to Follow

It’s time for a last look back at Cheltenham 2019 but first a race at Sandown run on the Saturday before Cheltenham:

Saturday 9^th March

Sandown

European Breeders’ Fund Matchbook VIP “National Hunt” Novices’ Handicap Hurdle Final (Grade 3).

This race has traditionally been a good source of future winners. Indeed, if you had backed all the runners in the race blindly on their next start you would have made a level stakes profit of £84.89 to a £1 stake.

The first three finishers in this year’s race: Third Wind. One For Rosie & Champagne Well can all win races.

Third Wind, stayed the 2m 4f trip really well and looks capable of more improvement over further.

One For Rosie, looked the most likely winner between the final two hurdles but was just done by a stronger stayer on the soft ground He looks like a nice novice chaser for next season at 2m 4f+ especially on less testing ground.

Champagne Well, is 0 wins from 4 runs 4 placed since going hurdling but will soon win a maiden hurdle race on the evidence of his third placed effort here.

Southern Sam, trained by Oliver Sherwood, stayed on well into 5^th. A four raced maiden over hurdles He’s improving with racing and can win races either this season or next.

Cheltenham Review

Tuesday 12^th March

There were four that caught my eye in The Ultima Handicap Chase on Day 1 and I have a feeling that Grand National winner was running in the race. I put up Up For Review in my Monday Daily Punt column as a horse for the tracker.

Up For Review, trained by Willie Mullins, was sent off one the 8/1 co-favourites for the race.

The 10-year-old had made his seasonal reappearance when finishing an encouraging third in the Thyestes Chase at Gowran Park in January.

Lightly raced for his age having just had the 16 starts under rules, winning 6 of them. This was only his 7th start over fences. He was travelling powerfully on the heels of the leaders when making a bad mistake three out. That knocked the stuffing out of him, and he eventually finished 8th. He wasn’t subjected to a hard race after the second last and he enters the final weeks of the season fresher than most. He’s one to keep onside either in the Aintree or Irish National’s.

Big River, trained by Lucinda Russell, needs to improve his jumping but he’s a well handicapped horse at present, as he showed here when staying on well from the last to finish 4th. The Irish or Scottish Grand Nationals look ideal races for the 9-year-old.

Vintage Clouds, trained by Sue Smith, was always up with the pace and surprisingly didn’t hit his usual ‘flat spot’ during the race. If you fancy him for the Grand National, you won’t have been discouraged by this performance.

Lake View Lad, trained by Nick Alexander, and in the same ownership as Vintage Clouds. The 9-year-old put in a great performance under top-weight of 11-12. Slightly outpaced coming to three out, he was staying on well all the way to the line. He wasn’t subjected to hard a race as the two that finished in front of him. This race should have put him spot on fitness wise for Aintree.

The Close Brothers Novices’ Handicap Chase was turned into a procession by the clearly well-handicapped, easy winner, A Plus Tard who will could well make up into a Grade 1 chaser next season. However, several are worth keeping on side:

Ben Dundee, trained by Gordon Elliott, finished third. The 7-year-old was making his handicap chase debut and looks up to winning a handicap chase off his current mark.

Russian Doyen, trained by Colin Tizzard, ran well for a long way before finishing 4th. The 6-year-old was only the second of his trainers’ runners to place at this year’s festival. Maybe 2m 4f on soft ground just stretched his stamina. He’s just had the four starts over fences, winning two of them. He looks on a competitive mark and won’t mind a less testing surface.

Shady Operator, trained by Joseph O’Brien, was another making his handicap debut. It all seemed to be happening to quick, over 2m 4f, for the 6-year-old who plugged on into 7^th.  Which is not surprising has he had looked a 3m +chaser in the making when beating Ballyward in a 3m 1f beginners’ chase at Punchestown back in December. His jumping needs to improve but he’s only had the four starts over fences, so time is on his side in that regard. One to note in handicap chases when stepping back up to 3m+

Riders Onthe Storm, who had impressed when winning at Punchestown on his previous start was weak in the betting before the off and only got as far as the 6^th before falling. The 6-year-old remains lightly raced over fences and he’s not one to give up on just yet.

Wednesday 13^th March

Bright Forecast, trained by Ben Pauling, did best of the hold up horses when staying on really well to finish 3^rd in the Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle. The 5-year-old is bred to be a chaser and he will be an exciting recruit to novice chases next season. Tom Segal (Pricewise) already fancies him for next year’s RSA Novices’ Chase. He’s one for next season category that for sure.

Canardier, trained by Dermot McLoughlin, a novice hurdle winner at Cheltenham on his last start back in October returned to C&D to run a cracker in finishing 5^th in the Coral Cup on his handicap hurdle debut. The 7-year-old has only had the nine career starts, winning three of them. Prior to this run his best form had come on a sound surface but he showed here that he can be effective on soft to. His record on good to yielding or quicker is 3 wins from 5 runs +8.75 5 placed with form figures 11231.

Maybe best caught after a break but there’s no doubt he started out in handicap hurdles on a competitive looking mark. I wonder if connections will target the gelding at next years Festival, given he likes the track and is effective in big fields, in the hope of slightly quicker ground?

Thursday 14^th March

Tobefair, trained by Debra Hamer, had indicated that he was returning to something like his best when 2^nd of 11 at Chepstow back in February and ran even better in finishing runner-up in the Pertemps Series Final. The handicapper has put the 9-year-old up 6lb for this effort looks a shade harsh, but he should remain competitive in 3m handicap hurdles to the end of the season.

Not Many Left, trained by Jessica Harrington, finished third home in the Pertemps. The 6-year-old was only having his 7^th start over hurdles but was only beaten 1 ½ lengths at the line. Between the final two hurdles he was travelling best of all and looked the most likely winner before just being run out of it by a couple of stronger stayers on the day.

I wouldn’t be surprised if he turned out to be the best of the three-horse’s home in the race. He will probably go novice chasing next year but he remains on a winnable mark over hurdles in the shorter term.

In the Kim Muir Chase, that concluded Day 3 of the festival, the runner-up Kilfilum Cross, who was having only his 4^th start over fences, continued his progression over the larger obstacles. He could well be heading to Ayr for the valuable 3m novices’ handicap chase at the Scottish Grand National Meeting.

Friday 15^th March

Countister, trained by Nicky Henderson, was having her first start since finishing 5^th of 14 to Laurina in the Mares’ Novices Hurdle 365 days earlier. The 7-year-old was only having her 5^th start over hurdles when finishing a 1 ½ length 3^rd in the County Hurdle. She should improve for this run and the experience of a big field competitive handicap. A flat track like Aintree should suit the mare as should a step up in distance from 2m 1f.

Saturday 16^th March

Kempton

The 2m 5f Silver Plate Handicap Hurdle has been won by the likes of Kildisart, Brio Conti & Might Bite in recent seasons was won by the 8-year-old Wicked Willy on Saturday.  The one to take out of the race with the future in mind could be the runner-up My Way.

My Way, trained Paul Nicholls, had yet to win on his six previous starts since joining the trainer.  However, he had run well defeat, finishing second to subsequent Sandown winner Third Wind before finishing third to One For Rosie at Warwick. He’s on a competitive hurdle mark and can surely break his maiden tag over hurdles based on his effort here. Next season he looks set to go novice chasing.

There you have it plenty for the notebook. Some for big races in the coming weeks whilst other need to be kept in mind for next season.

Part two of this week’s notebook will be with you between 7pm & 8pm on Friday evening and will contain weekend selections, etc.

Cheers

John

Hi all,

Well Minella Warrior’s class did get him through yesterday and he also won at decent price (2/1)

We have another eyecatcher running to today at Haydock.

Haydock

4:20 – Halo Moon – Ran better than his final position of 7th suggested in the Veterans Chase Final at Sandown, on his first run since May. Didn’t build on that promise when run below par at Fakenham last month.

The 11-year-old has yet to win on heavy but he’s 4 wins from 12 runs 7 placed on soft or heavy going.

Soon to be retired Noel Fehily, has won on the horse twice in the past and he travels to Haydock for this one ride.

Trainer Neil Mulhollond is in better form than when Halo Moon last ran.

Nicely handicapped and dropping back to Class 4 company today, there’s plenty to like about his chances today

Cheers

John

Hi all,

Djin Conti continued the winning run when taking the first at Southwell on Monday.

There’s a recent eyecatcher running at Wetherby today.

Wetherby

3:15 – Minella Warrior – 6/5 @ William Hill – A winner of his first two starts over hurdles at the start of the season. He then ran below par in a Grade 2 at Chepstow in October. The 7-year-old then off the track for 103-days before returning to finish runner-up in a Pertemps Series qualifier at Huntingdon . The winner of that race went onto finish 3rd in the Final last week and the 3rd home won a handicap hurdle on Saturday. So, the form looks solid.

Minella Warrior just failed to get into last weeks Final at Cheltenham so shouldn’t be long in finding a winning opportunity. Up 3lb for his last effort demands more but he looks capable of winning again.

My slight concern is the soft ground, as all his best form so far has come on a sounder surface. Hopefully his class can see him through.

Cheers

John

Hi all,

Two from two on Sunday, albeit one was odds on.

I wasn’t expecting any selections today, but we have three eyecatchers running on Monday and there’s also a valuable handicap chase at Navan that I couldn’t resist having a go at.

Let’s begin with the eyecatchers.

Southwell

2:00 – Djin Conti – 3/1 @ William Hill –  Made a pleasing debut over fences at Newbury 17-days ago and will be suited by the step back up in trip.

2:30 – Deadly Approach – 11/2 @ Paddy Power or 5/1 – Gen – Went into the tracker after his third placed effort at Haydock two starts back. Pulled up at Ludlow last time but a reproduction of his Haydock, off 5lb lower, would give a him a good chance here. A useful 7lb claimer has been booked for the ride.

Plumpton

3:35 – Graasten – 4/1 @ William Hill & Bet365 –  Beaten at 1/8 last time is a worry. But maybe he needs today’s softer ground, won over hurdles on heavy. Worth a final chance.

Navan

4:30 – Irish Stallion Farms EBF Novice Handicap Chase Final (Grade B) – 3m

A field of 14 are set to go to post for this year’s renewal which looks set to be run on soft ground.

Looking at the trends for the race the last 11 winners of the race had won one of their last three races.

Using that trend there are five qualifiers: Mon Lino, Se Mo Laoch, Young Paddymc, Lilshane, Kayf Thou.

Young Paddymc – 11/2 @ Paddy Power – One of two runners from the Thomas Gibney stable, has only had two starts over fences but was a decisive winner of a Punchestown beginners chase 64-days ago. The 7-year-old was strong at the finish that day and shouldn’t have any issues with extra 1 ½ f he travels today. Capable of plenty more improvement on his handicap chase debut. His sole hurdle win came on heavy so underfoot conditions shouldn’t hold any terrors for him. A mark of 116 looks very workable.

Cheers

John

Hi all,

Carlisle faces a morning inspection due to heavy ground. if they do race at the Cumbria track we do have an eyecatcher running.

Carlisle

2:45 – The Last Day – 4/7 – Gen – Trainer Evan Williams looks to have found a good opportunity for the the 7-year-old to get off the mark over fences. He won’t have any issues with the testing ground as he won on heavy over hurdles. Sadly his odds don’t set the pulse racing.

Over the Irish Sea at Wexford there is an interesting looking Veterans handicap chase.

Wexford

4:00 – Westerner Point – 11/4 @ William Hill & Coral – Is the reliable option. The 10-year-old put in a career best over fences when winning a valuable handicap chase at Limerick over Christmas. He’s no eligible for Veterans Chases. Up 7lb for his last win but he’s in the form of his life and could well be able to defy his rise in the ratings in this race. The 80-day layoff shouldn’t be a problem as the selection is 3 wins from 6 runs 4 placed when returning form 60+ day layoff. His form figures here at Wexford are 211, in March 11121 and 1111 on soft or soft to heavy going.  A solid win contender.

Cheers

John

Hi all,

Three profitable days at the Cheltenham Festival it’s just a shame that the final day was a bit of a blowout.

The Saturday after the Cheltenham Festival always has the air of “After the Lord Mayor’s Show”. Which is understandable given the four fantastic days of racing that precede it. It is of course, a bit unfair on Uttoxeter who host their biggest days racing of the year, with Midland Grand National the feature, and can expect their biggest crowd of the season.

There are a couple of other valuable handicaps on the Uttoxeter card and two Class 2 handicaps on the Kempton card.

Both fixtures are subject to precautionary inspections with ‘Storm Hannah’ due to batter the UK with gale force winds and plenty of rain, if the weather forecasters are correct.

The going at Kempton is good to soft and at Uttoxeter it’s soft. If the forecast rain does arrive in the volumes predicted, then it’s likely that Midlands National will be run on heavy going as it was last year.

Uttoxeter

3:00 – Paul Nicholls saddles Dr Sanderson & Magoo. The former made it 2 from 3 over hurdles when winning at Ffos Las 18-days ago. Capable of more improvement on his handicap debut but needs to find it and this will be the softest ground he’s run on. There should be no issue with the ground for Magoo. He was twice a winner on testing ground when trained in France. The 7-year-old’s first start this season was over fences but he’s since run a couple of promising runs over hurdles. Latterly when runner-up at Sandown back on soft ground 8 days ago.

Acey Milan who was 4^th in last years Champion Bumper when sent off the 9/2 favourite. Got his head in front over hurdle for the first time when winning at Plumpton 31-days ago. Step’s back up in trip here and the 5-year-old makes his handicap debut off what looks a fair mark.

Bold Plan beat a subsequent Grade 2 winner at Taunton 40-days ago. He was probably a bit flattered by that win as the runner-up is better horses on a sound surface. Still a mark of 130 looks fair for his handicap debut.

Duarigle, finally came good when winning a soft ground handicap hurdle at Sandown two starts back before running just as well in defeat at Newbury 14-days ago. The drop back in trip on good to soft wasn’t in his favour at Newbury, He’s progressive and looks capable of winning again.

Verdict: Acey Milan remains a horse with potential over hurdles. Duarigle’s another capable of winning off his present mark.

Acey Milan – 6/1 @ Bet365

Duarigle – 11/1 @ Paddy Power – each way – (paying 5 places 1/5 odds) or 10/1 @ William Hill (paying 5 places 1/5 odds)

3:35 – Marston’s 61 Deep Midlands Grand National (An Open Handicap Chase) (Listed Race) – 4m 2f.

A maximum field of 20 are set to go to post for this year’s renewal and I have seven on the shortlist.

Ms Parfois, has only had one run this season down to the unseasonably dry ground. A top-class novice chaser last season. The mare gets her ground today and should be suited by a marathon trip like this. Looks on a winnable mark and it’s a no excuses day for the 8-year-old.

It wasn’t the best of Cheltenham’s for Gordon Elliott but his runner Folsom Blue needs respecting as he gets his ground favoured testing ground. He stays all day and should go close.

Recent Eyecatcher Ballydine has been running well in handicap chases at 3m 1f & 3m 2f, this season. He shapes like a marathon trip will suit and he races off the same mark as when 3^rd in the Peter Marsh Chase at Haydock 56-days ago. He’s another who goes well in the mud.

David Pipe trained the winner of this race four times between 2011 & 2014 and he saddles Dell’Arca. He was good 3^rd under top-weight at Haydock on his last start 76-days ago. The 10-year-old is 2 from 2 at the track and can go well if the going doesn’t get to heavy.

Back To The Thatch, finished one place ahead of Dell’Arca at Haydock and has been kept fresh for this. Needs soft or heavy ground and is just 4lb higher than when travelling strongly but falling in last years Eider Chase. The 7-year-old needs his jumping to be at it’s best here if he’s to take advantage of a competitive mark.

Chef D’Oeuvre, was the winner of that Haydock race. He went up 13lb for that win but arguably put in an even better performance when a 2 length 3^rd in the Grand National Trial at Haydock. The good ground that day would have been plenty quick enough for him, 3 wins from 5 runs 4 placed on heavy. After his Haydock run I thought this race on soft or heavy ground would be an ideal target for the 8-year-old.

Evan Williams won this race in 2016 and he’s got an interesting contender in Prime Venture. The 8-year-old is 0 wins from 5 runs over fences but has a similar chance to Back To The Thatch on their running at Chepstow back in December. Looks the sort who could make significant improvement over a marathon trip like this.

Milansbar, was an eyecatcher when staying on into 4^th over an inadequate 3m 2f at Newbury 14-days ago. The softer ground today plays to his strengths and he was runner-up in this race last year off 5lb higher. Bryony Frost who has won on the horse is back in the saddle and despite now being a 12-year-old has each way claims.

Verdict: Ms Parfois could win this race easily. Both eyecatchers Ballydine and Milansbar are capable of bold shows and Chef D’Oeuvre looks an ideal type for a marathon trip like this.

Ballydine – 9/1 @ William Hill & Ladbrokes

Milansbar – 11/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes – each way – (both paying 5 places 1/5 odds) or 10/1 @ William Hill (paying 7 places)

Chef D’Oeuvre – 10/1 @ William Hill – each way – (paying 7 places)

Kempton

2:40 – A 2m 5f handicap that has been won by some decent horses in the past and it will be worth keeping an eye on the winner of the race next season. Nicky Henderson won the race in 2016 with Might Bite and Theinval a year earlier. He saddles Burrows Park who returned from a 301-day lay off to finish 2^nd of 13 over C&D 21-days ago. The 6-year-old should be all the better for that run and is just 2lb higher than for that neck defeat. Looks to have a solid favourites chance here.

Burrows Park – 3/1 @ William Hill & Ladbrokes

3:15 – El Teremoto, could be the answer to this 2m 4f handicap chase. The 7-year-old won a Southwell novices’ chase last July and then was second at Stratford, He then fell at the last when in contention at Perth and fell on his next start at Wetherby. Had a confidence booster when runner-up on his handicap chase debut at Perth two weeks ago. The return to 2m 4f will be in his favour and he still has potential as a handicap chaser. Hopefully he can get the better of the better fancied Onefortheroadtom and Brother Tedd.

El Teremoto – 11/2 @ William Hill & Ladbrokes

Besides Ballydine and Milansbar in the Midlands Grand National we also have a couple of eyecatchers running this evening at Wolverhampton.

Wolverhampton

5:40 – Kilbaha Lady – 5/1 @ Bet365 – Has been knocking on the door on her last two starts and is capable of going one better here.

6:15 – Ballard Down – 14/1 @ Ladbrokes – each way – Lost his chance at the start at Newcastle. The previous C&D winner for his former trainer, had been running well at Lingfield prior to his Newcastle flop. Gets the first time cheekpieces, replacing the visor today and should be capable of a bold show if he takes to the change of headgear.

Always check with an odds comparison service like Oddschecker to get the best prices available

All selections win only unless indicated as each way.

Good luck with your bets.

Cheers

John

Hi all,

Cheltenham Festival 2019 – Day 4

Well two profitable days let’s hope Thursday has witnessed more of the same. I will be missing the live action today, as I am in hospital undergoing some rather uncomfortable tests that men of a certain age tend to have. I will spare you the details, but I will be sore this evening in a place you don’t really want to be.

It’s Gold Cup Day on Friday and the ground seems to have dried up a bit. The going description is good to soft at the time of writing this on Thursday morning. Rain is forecast for overnight and on Friday morning, but how much?

Plenty of good races to get stuck into. Not just the Gold Cup but the Triumph and Albert Bartlett Hurdles, as well as three fiendishly tough looking handicaps.

1:30 – JCB Triumph Hurdle (Grade 1) – 2m 1f

The form chance of hot favourite Sir Erec is there for all to see and from a brief look at the trends he seems to tick all the key ones. Tiger Tap Tap was expected to give Sir Erec a race at Leopardstown but finished a disappointing 4^th. He’s surely better than that and has each way claims but I don’t see him beating the favourite.

At an each-way price you could probably do worse than have a bit on Coeur Sublime, one of two Gordon Elliott trained runners. The juvenile has been crying out for some softer ground which he should get on Friday.  I’m expecting a much-improved performance from him.

Hannon, is an interesting contender from the John McConnell stable. A winner at Musselburgh on his second start over hurdles. He improved further to be just beaten a nose in a Grade 2 at Navan< he remains open to further improvement. This will be his first run on soft ground which is an unknown. Could easily out run his big odds.

2:10 – Randox Health County Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) – 2m 1f.

A maximum field of 26 are set to go to post for the race. Now I usually nail a couple of the big handicaps at the Cheltenham but all the five winners I have identified have come in non-handicap races. Let’s hope I can put that right today.

Last years Triumph Hurdle winner Mr Adjudicator, has yet to finish out of the first two over hurdles and wasn’t disgraced when runner-up to Champion Hurdle winner Espoir D’Allen at Naas on his seasonal reappearance 125-days ago. He’s probably been waiting for the ground to ease and needs to be respected but his weight of 11-8 is a shade off putting. He’s one of three Willie Mullins trained runners and the trainer has won four of the last ten renewals of the race.

Monsieur Lecoq, is another who needs respecting. He’s 3lb lower than when finishing runner-up in Saturday’s Imperial Cup. If that race hasn’t taken too much out of the 5-year-old, he looks sure to go close off his slightly reduced mark.

Lisp & Eclair De Beaufeu are two recent eyecatchers running in the race. The former disappointed in the rescheduled Betfair Hurdle at Ascot on his last start. He’s capable of better than that and has place claims.

The Gordon Elliott trained Eclair De Beaufeu is the more interesting of the pair. The 5-year-old has won 2 of his seven start since going hurdling. He finally broke his maiden tag when winning at the 4^th attempt at Limerick before going onto win at Fairyhouse. He made a good handicap debut when 4^th of 19 in the Ladbroke Handicap Hurdle at Leopardstown 41-days ago when he was doing his best work at the finish. I was hoping he would have stepped up a bit further in trip, but the extra furlong and rain softened ground can bring his stamina into play.

Of the rest keep an eye on Crooks Peak who made it three from four over hurdles when winning at Newbury 13 -days ago. That was his first run since November, so he’s entitled to have improved for the run. Looks set for a big run off just 5lb higher than last time.

Monsieur Lecoq – 11/1 @ William Hill

Eclair De Beaufeu – 12/1 @ William Hill

Crooks Peak – 12/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes – each way (paying 6 places 1/5 odds0

2:50 – Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1) (Registered As The Spa Novices’ Hurdle) – 3m

My colours are firmly nailed to the mast of the Rebecca Curtis trained Lisnagar Oscar after I advised him ante-post at 8/1 after his recent Haydock win. He’s got the right profile for the race, but my slight worry would be very soft ground for the son of Oscar.

The best horse in the race could eventually turn out to be the Nicky Henderson trained Birchdale. He lacks the experience of Lisnagar Oscar but he’s a horse with a big future. Owner JP McManus also has the twice raced Dickie Diver in the race. He was runner-up to Lisnagar Oscar on his hurdle debut back in January before a comfortable maiden hurdle win at Chepstow 20-days ago. Like his stablemate, he lacks the experience you normally expect from a winner of this race, he has plenty of potential to improve further.

Irish raider Derrinross has been backed in the last few days. The 8-year-old has won both his starts over hurdles on soft ground. No doubting his stamina for 3m, as he won at Limerick over the distance on his last start. The softer the ground the better his chance becomes.

3:30 – Magners Cheltenham Gold Cup Chase (Grade 1) – 3m 2 ½ f

Jump racings blue riband race and the openness of the contest can be gauged from the fact that a field of 16 are set to go to post for this year’s race. It still has the potential to be a high-class renewal.

Presenting Percy has had a very unorthodox preparation for the race just the one run, due to the quick ground over in Ireland, when winning the Galmoy Hurdle at Gowran Park 50-days ago. Hasn’t jumped a fence since running out an impressive winner in last years RSA Novices’ Chase. He also won the Pertemps Handicap Hurdle here in 2017. He likes the track 2 wins from 2 run and and is 4 wins from 5 runs on soft ground.  Needs to improve to win this but has the potential to be a high-class staying chaser.

Presenting Percy – 4/1 @ William Hill & Bet365

4:10 – St. James’s Place Foxhunter Challenge Cup Open Hunters’ Chase (Class 2) – 3m 2 ½ f

Not a race for me!

4:50 – Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Challenge Cup Handicap Chase (Grade 3) – 2m ½ f

A couple of eyecatchers run in this: Forest Bihan and Mind’s Eye. The former is a strong traveller but doesn’t find a lot when let down as occurred at Doncaster on his last start. The 8-year-old has top-weight of 11-12 to carry which is a tough ask but could get the race run to suit.

Mind’s Eye, made his handicap chase debut at Leopardstown last month off what looked a winnable mark.  He never really looked like winning but made some good headway coming to the last and ran well to finish 5th of 14.  He won at 2m 4f, over hurdles, last season and the way he ran here suggests he might need that sort of trip over fences.  But the strong pace will be in his favour and he’s more than capable of winning a good handicap chase. Looks the stronger win contender of the pair.

Not Another Muddle, trained by Gary Moore looks the ideal type for this race. The 8-year-old returned for a near 13-month absence to finish third at Sandown and built on that run with a decisive win back at the same track 28-days ago. He’s an improving handicap chaser, whose 3 wins from 4 runs over fences and all his career wins have come on soft. First run at Cheltenham but if he handles the track must be in with a big chance.

Top Gamble, one of three runners from the Kerry Lee stable, was third in this race last year, beaten 4 ¾ lengths. He can now race off 6lb lower. The 11-year is vulnerable to any improvers in the fiel. However, if he gets his favoured soft ground, he has each way claims, despite having fallen on his last two starts.

Not Another Muddle – 13/2 @ Bet365

Mind’s Eye – 10/1 @ William Hill

5:30 – Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle (Class 2) – 2m 4 ½ f

Mr Antolini, likes these big field handicap scenarios and has winning form on soft ground. Slight stamina concerns but he’s on a competitive mark if his stamina isn’t stretched on soft ground.

Daybreak Boy, trained by Henry De Bromhead, made it 2 wins from 7 runs over hurdles when winning at Clonmel 64-days ago, this is a lot harder, but he looks progressive and he makes his handicap hurdle debut on a competitive mark. The booking of top Irish Conditional jockey Donal McInerney is a positive one.

Discordantly, is 0 from 4 over hurdles and is another making his handicap debut here. The 5-year-old has placed on his last three starts all in fields 20+. A strong pace will be in his favour and he shouldn’t be discounted.

Gordon Elliott has won the last two running’s of this race. He saddles three all of which are well fancied in the ante-post market.  The ante-post favourite is Dallas Des Pictons who’s won his last two starts, including making a winning handicap hurdle debut at Leopardstown 40-days ago. That win came over 3m, but he shouldn’t have to many issues with the drop back in distance Three starts back he was runner up Ballymore winner City Island which looks strong form now. Solid favourites chance with more to come from the 6-year-old

Cartwright, also trained by Elliott, wasn’t disgraced when running on into 12^th at Leopardstown on his last start. That was over 2m and he needs 2m 4f to be at his best. The soft ground has come in his favour and he’s another who can go well returning to this sort of trip.

Dallas Des Pictons – 7/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

Daybreak Boy – 16/1 @ William Hill & Ladbrokes – each way (both paying 5 places 1/5 odds)

Always check with an odds comparison service like Oddschecker to get the best prices available

All selections win only unless indicated as each way.

Good luck with your bets.

Cheers

John

Hi all,

Cheltenham Festival 2019 – Day 3

The forecast storm force winds didn’t materialise so the threat to Day 2 of the meeting disappeared and racing went ahead. 

I said Wednesday’s notebook would be shorter than Tuesday’s, but It didn’t pan out as I expected and was almost as long.

Have no fear, todays will be!

1:30 – JLT Novices’ Chase (Grade 1) (Registered as The Golden Miller) (Class 1) – 2m 4f

The race was first run in 2011 and last years race was the first to be run on soft ground. Only ten have been declared to go to post but it’s one of the difficult non-handicap puzzles to solve.

Looking at the tends seven of the last eight winners of the race, or 88% of the winners from 24% of the total runners shared the following traits:

Horses Age: 6yo to 7yo

Runs In Previous 90-day’s 2 or 3

Days Since Last Run: 31 to 60

Runs At Track: 1+

Using the above trends shows how tight the race is six of today’s field remain qualifiers.

Verdict: One who ticks all the above boxes is Defi Du Seuil, he also ticks the boxes marked going and course. Looks the one to beat.

Defi Du Seuil – 3/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

2:20 – Pertemps Network Final Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) (Class 1) (5yo+) – 3m

The first of three handicaps on Day 3. All three of which look tough races to call.

Looking at the trends nine of the last eleven winners or 82% of the winners from 41% of the total runners shared the following.

Last time Out Placing: First Four

Days Since Last Run: 11 to 75 days

Handicap Hurdle Wins: 0 to 2

Samburu Shujaa, Not Many Left & Coole Cody all meet the above trends. The first named has won his last two starts over hurdles. Going from the front has really suited the 6-year-old whose only up 7lb for his last win.

Not Many Left, is one of two runners trained by Jessica Harrington, the other the well fancied Walk To Freedom. Not Many Left is improving with racing and last time out won a Huntingdon qualifier 48-days ago. Up just 4lb for that win but there should be more to come if he handles the rough and tumble of this big field.

Coole Cody, another possible pace angle. The 8-year-old won a handicap hurdle here back in November 2017. That win came on soft ground so no problem with underfoot conditions for him. Bounced back to something like his best when 2^nd of 16 in a valuable 2m 7 ½ f Sandown handicap hurdle last month. Slight concern about his stamina for a strongly run 3m and he won’t get an uncontested lead.

Aaron Lad, twice a winner on soft ground, the 8-year-old improved with each of his three starts this season, winning at Market Rasen two starts back before going onto win over C&D in December. Up 9lb but looks progressive and can go well.

Sire Du Berlais was an eyecatcher when staying on into 6^th in one of the qualifiers at Leopardstown on his last start. After that run I mentioned in the notebook that 20/1 available was great each way value. Hopefully some of you got at that price as he’s now a best priced 6/1. Cheekpieces go on for the first time and looks the one to beat even if his price has gone.

Champers On Ice, was an eyecatcher after his last run when finishing 4^th at Haydock 26-days ago. No issues with the going or the track for the 9-year-old who will strip fitter for his run for for 14 months. Trainer won this race in 2010 & 2011.

Verdict: Not Many Left, is progressive and could be the pick of the Harrington pair. Sire De Berlais is a solid contender but his price has now long gone. Champers On Ice, should have benefited form his recent return from a layoff and has each way claims for David Pipe. Coole Cody & Samburu Shujaa clearly need respecting, but the front runners could be vulnerable at the finish. Aaron Lad looks to have been saved for this and the C&D winner could still be ahead of his mark.

I will add the three below to many post bet on Sire De Berlais.

Champers On Ice – 16/1 @ Coral – each way – (paying 6 places 1/5 odds)

Not Many Left – 16/1 @ Coral & Paddy Power – each way – (both paying 6 places 1/5 odds)

Aaron Lad – 14/1 @ Paddy Power – each way – (paying 6 places 1/5 odds)

2:50 – Ryanair Chase (Registered As The Festival Trophy) (Grade 1) – 2m 4 ½ f

A cracker of a renewal but not a betting race for me and I haven’t looked at the race in detail.

3:30 – Sun Racing Stayers’ Hurdle (Grade 1) – 3m

I was thinking about going with last year’s runner-up Supasundae who goes in the first-time tongue tie today. Not sure the recent rain has helped him stay to win over 3m.

4:10 – Brown Advisory & Merriebelle Stable Plate Handicap Chase (Grade 3) – 2m 4 ½ f

Nine of the eleven last winners of the race or 82% of the winners from 31% of the total runners had the following:

Best in Three Runs: 1^st or 2^nd

Handicap Chase Wins: 0 to 2

Runs At The Track: 0 to 3

Headgear: None

There are four qualifiers from the trend’s analysis:

Janika, top weight but has a touch of class. Beaten a head by Siruh Du Lac over C&D on his last run. There shouldn’t be much between the pair again.

River Wylde, like Janika trained by Nicky Henderson. The 8-year was 3^rd in the Supreme back in 2017. Lacks experience for a race like this, just the three start over fences, but looks capable of winning off this mark sooner rather than later. Soft ground would be a slight concern first run since falling at Haydock back in November.

Azzerti, trained by Alan King, was very much still in contention when falling three out over C&D at the Trial’s meeting. Had his confidence restored when beating two rivals at 1/10 in novices chase at Ludlow. The 7-year-old looks on a competitive mark if he avoids silly errors.

Didero Vallis, looked a progressive handicap chaser when winning at Carlisle & Haydock. Disappointed at Kempton when stepped up to 3m at Kempton 19-days ago. Whether he didn’t stay 3m or found the ground too quick I am not sure. That was his first start for 55-days so he could just have needed the outing. Drops back to 2m 4 ½ f should be fine. Trainer Venetia Williams won this race in 2009 & 2013 so the 6-year-old needs respecting.

Of the rest. King’s Odyssey, a previous C&D winner was 3rd in this race last year, Races off 2lb lower today but has to be respected back on a track he really likes. The 10-year-old needs all the cards to fall right to win and remains vulnerable to any progressive horses in the race. The more testing the ground the more his chance is enhanced.

Verdict: I think it may pay to draw a line through Didero Vallis run at Kempton given his trainers record in the race. Azzerti is another going the right way and can go well. King’s Odyssey, third in this last year, has that all important festival form and has each way claims.

Didero Vallis – 20/1 @ William Hill – each way – (paying 5 places 1/5 odds)

Azzerti – 16/1 @ William Hill – each way – (paying 5 places 1/5 odds)

King’s Odyssey – 25/1 @ William Hill – each way – (paying 5 places 1/5 odds)

4:50 – National Hunt Breeders Supported By Tattersalls Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 2) – 2m 1f

Not a race I have looked at.

5:30 – Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup Amateur Riders’ Handicap Chase (Class 2) – 3m 2f

The handicaps don’t become any easier with 24 runners declared to go to post Looking at the trends. Eight of the last eleven winners, or 72% of the winners from 26% of the total runners shared these five traits:

Horses Age: 7yo to 9yo

Weight: Top Weight or Within 13lb.

Highest Class Run: Grade 1 or 2

Days Since Last Run: 16 to 90 days

Handicap Chase Wins: 0 to 2

You would have thought those trends would have cut the shortlist down to a manageable four or five runners but in fact there are 10 remaining qualifiers.

One qualifier is the Ted Walsh trained Any Second Now who has probably been trained at the race. He remains winless over fences, but I think there is more to come from him. Top amateur Derek O’Connor take the ride.

Another trends qualifier is the Gordon Elliott trained Its All Guesswork. The 7-year-old was still in contention when falling at the last in the Munster National two starts back. Returned from a 129-day break with a 3^rd placed effort over hurdles 22-days ago. Should be spot on fitness wise for today.

Of the rest Speaker Connolly was a recent eyecatcher when 3^rd at Leopardstown. The 6-year-old looked in need of more of a stamina test that day so should be suited by the step up in distance. Looks on a competitive mark but needs to cut out the silly mistake, or he won’t get around.

Verdict: I think Speaker Connolly can win a nice pot off his present mark but does need to jump better. Any Second Now and Its All Guesswork are also capable with the latter progressing nicely.

Any Second Now – 10/1 @ William Hill & BetVictor

Its All Guesswork – 10/1 @ Ladbrokes

Speaker Connolly – 14/1 @ Paddy Power (paying 5 places 1/5 odds) or 12/1 @ Coral & William Hill – each way – (both paying 5 places 1/5 odds)

Always check with an odds comparison service like Oddschecker to get the best prices available

All selections win only unless indicated as each way.

Good luck with your bets.

Hi all,

Cheltenham Festival 2019 – Day 2

At the time of writing the forecast heavy rain has hit the course and it looks like it will be soft all over on Day 1. The weather is set to be mostly dry Tuesday evening/night and through Wednesday although there could be some isolated heavy showers during the day.

1:30 – Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1) (Registered As The Baring Bingham) – 2m 5f

A field of 16 are declared to go to post for this year’s race.

Looking at the key trends. Ten of the last eleven winners of the race, or 91% of the winners from 24% of the total runners, had the following traits:

Age: 5yo or 6yo

Odds SP: 8/1 & under

There are two qualifiers using the above trends Battleoverdoyen and City Island.

Battleoverdoyen is trained by Gordon Elliott, who won last years race with Samcro. The 5-year-old has won both his starts over hurdles and is unbeaten under rules, He’s not as flashy as Samcro but he has a good attitude and the more of a stamina test the better. Yet to race on soft ground but he could improve for it. Solid market leader for me.

The best of the British is Champ, trained by Nicky Henderson. He’s unbeaten in his last four starts over hurdles but probably doesn’t have the improvement of the Elliott horse.

City Island is the one I have fancied for some time.  I advised him ante post at 12/1 in my Monday Daily Punt column last month.  Owned by the sponsors the 6-year-old has finished first past the post on all three of his starts over hurdles. Open to further progress and if he was trained by Mullins or Elliott he would be half his present odds.

Gordon Elliott also saddles the unbeaten Galvin who has the potential to progress further for the step up to 2m 5f. Plenty to find on form but if the distance move unlocks more, improvement, he has each way claims.

Verdict: Galvin is a potential improverstepped up in trip.His stablemate Battleoverdoyen has a favourites chance But I am happy to stick with long time ante-post selection City Island.

City Island – 9/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

2:10 – RSA Insurance Novices’ Chase (Grade 1) – 3m ½ f

Looking at the key trends for the race. All of the last eleven winners of the race or 100% of the winners from 28% of the total runners shared the following traits:

Odds SP: 16/1 & under

Last Time Out Placing: Top three

Highest Class Run: Grade 1 or Grade 2

Runs In Season: 3 to 5

Only ante-post favourite Delta Work meets all the above trends. The 6-year-old has won all three of his starts over fences and two starts back had the pace beat Le Richebourg at Fairyhouse over 2m 4f. Stepped up to 3m to win the Grade 1 novices’ chase at Leopardstown over Christmas. No issues with the track for him either as he won the Pertemps Handicap Hurdle on soft ground at last years festival.  It will take a good one to lower his colours.

Topofthegame and Santini will clearly provide the favourite with a stern test and look the best of the home contingent. The former was an eyecatcher after his chase debut at Ascot. His sire Flemensfirth has a poor record her at Cheltenham but Topofthegame was runner-up in last years Coral Cup so he handles the track.

Of those at a bigger price Drovers Lane trained by Rebecca Curtis could run into the places if he handles the soft ground. #

Topofthegame – 7/2  – Gen

2:50 – Coral Cup Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) – 2m 5f

The first of the day’s handicaps and a maximum field of 26 are set to go to post for what is a tricky puzzle to unravel.

Starting with key trends. Eight of the last 11 winners, or 72% of the winners from 25% of the total runners shared the following:

Odds SP: 12/1 to 33/1

Best In Three Runs: 1^st

Distance Move: Not Dropping down

Handicap Hurdle Wins: 0 to 2

Using the above trends as guide there are four runners who meet all those trends: Vision Des Flos, Highest Sun, Ballyandy and Scarpeta.  

Of the rest a runner who fails one trend – as he hasn’t won in his last three starts is last year’s Triumph Hurdle winner Farclas. The step up to 2m 5f should suit the 5-year-old who will appreciate the softer ground. If he bounces back to last year’s best, would have a good chance.

William Henry has had a wind op since pulling up at Wincanton on Boxing Day. The 9-year-old was 4^th in this race last year off the same mark and must be respected.

Killultagh Vic, wonthe Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle at 2015 Festival. The 9-year-old hasn’t totally convinced over fences, despite winning twice. Is on a very tempting handicap mark returning to hurdles and he was a 1 ½ length 3^rd to Presenting Percy in the Galmoy Hurdle two starts back.

He’s one of six runners from the Willie Mullins stable including ante-post favourite Uradel and Scarpeta. The latter gets the first time cheekpieces and was 4^th to Samcro in in last year’s Ballymore Hurdle. If he jumps better then he’s a strong contender on ability.

Joke Dancer, trained by Sue Smith, showed the benefit of wind-op when winning at Newcastle on his seasonal reappearance 18 days ago. Up 5lb in a much deeper race with stamina to prove. That said he’s a potential improver and is 4 from 8 over hurdles.

Verdict: I get the feeling Farclas will bounce back sooner rather than later over this longer distance  but I am happy to go with two of the Willie Mullins team in Killultagh Vic & Scarpeta.

Killultagh Vic – 16/1 @ Coral (paying 7 places 1/5 odds)

Scarpeta – 22/1 @ Paddy Power (paying 7 places 1/5 odds)

3:30 – Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase (Grade 1) – 2m

Eight rivals take on Altior in the feature race of Day 2 of the Festival

Despite the soft ground surely Altior won’t be beaten here and I would argue that 2/5 is a value bet, given he would be a 1/4 or 2/9 on my tissue for the race.

If you were looking for one to run into the places at big odds, I suppose you could do a lot worse than look at the Harry Fry trained Hell’s Kitchen. I am totally convinced Cheltenham is his track but he’s the sort who could out run his odds.

4:10 – Glenfarclas Chase (A Cross Country Chase) (Class 2) – 3m 6f

Like the previous race not one, I will probably get involved in. Last years winner and Grand National hero Tiger Roll is short odds to win this again.

French trained, Urgent De Gregaine was runner-up to Tiger Roll last year and has solid place claims again. At even bigger odds you couldn’t rule out a big run from another French trained runner Amazing Comedy who really relishes soft ground, indeed the softer the better for the 9-year-old.

4:50 – Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle (Registered As The Fred Winter) (Grade 3) – 2m ½ f

Not surprisingly a maximum field off 22 are set to go to post for the juvenile handicap hurdle. A new relatively new race to the meeting being first run in 2005.

Looking at the trends for some clues. Nine of the last eleven winners of the race or 82% of the winners from just 19% of the total runners shared the following:

Official Rating: 125 to 134

Best In Three Runs: 1^st

Last Race Non-handicap

Days Since Last Run: 11 to 60

Last Time Out Placing: Not 2^nd or 3^rd

Using the above trends two runners qualify Star Max & Prabeni. Belargus, is also a qualifier but he’s only second reserve.

Of the rest the well backed ante-post favourite Band Of Outlaws could be a well handicapped juvenile who for me would have gone close in the Triumph Hurdle but will the rain softened ground find him out stamina wise. If not, he’s handicapped to win.

Praeceps was third to the impressive Fusil Raffles in the Grade 2 Adonis Hurdle at Kempton. He gets the blinkers on for the first time over hurdles, but he won in the headgear on the flat. Looked in need of more of stamina test at Kempton but soft ground would be an unknown.

I’m a fan of Fanfan De Seuil, trained by Tom George, the juvenile is one of the least experienced runners in the field but that also means he’s open to a more improvement than most. He fell when well fancied on his UK debut at Chepstow but went on to win at Exeter on his next start when still running green. Before finishing runner-up, giving away 3lb, here back in December.  He was an eyecatcher after that run.

Not been out since but the trainer’s runners went well on Day 1 which is a positive. A mark of 136 doesn’t look particularly lenient for his handicap debut but if he improves, he can get into the money.

Gordon Elliott runs Lethal Steps, Coko Beach & Chief Justice. The first named looks the more interesting of the three. Useful on the flat over a mile. He’s run with promise on his last two starts over hurdles and the drop back in distance from last time looks a good one. The first time cheekpieces are interesting addition. Coko Beach will do well to reverse form with Band Of Outlaws on their running at Naas but a stronger stamina test will suit him on the evidence of that run.

Of the two trends qualifiers Prabeni has won his last two races but soft ground would be worry for him.  Star Max, twice a winner on the flat when trained in Germany. Like Band Of Outlaws he’s trained by Joseph O’Brien. He makes his handicap debut after three runs over hurdles, showing a good attitude when beating 19 rivals at Gowran Park 25-days ago. The big field won’t be a problem for him and he’s going the right way.

French raider Naturelle is an intriguing runner she made it 2 from 4 over hurdles when landing a listed race last month. She could be very well handicapped or very badly handicapped off a mark of 138? At the prices it could be worth risking that filly is former rather than the latter.

Verdict: A very tough race where you can pick three and not get any of them in the frame. Star Max has each way claims. Naturelle looks worth chancing that the British handicapper has got her mark wrong. Whilst I think we can see a big run from Fanfan De Seuil.

Naturelle – 20/1 @ William Hill (paying 5 places 1/5 odds)

Star Max – 16/1 @ Paddy Power (paying 5 places 1/5 odds)

Fanfan De Seuil – 16/1 @ William Hill (paying 5 places 1/5 odds)

5:30 – Weatherbys Champion Bumper (A Standard Open National Hunt Flat Race) (Grade 1) – 2m ½ f

A smaller field than normal for this years Champion Bumper with just the 14 set to go to post. It’s not a race I will go into from a trend’s perspective.

The Gordon Elliott trained Envoi Allen set the standard on form and has won all his three bumper starts. He’s not been flashy in his wins but he’s a tough sort and is the one they all must beat. Meticulous was third to Elliott horse in the Grade 2 at Leopardstown and could get closer to his old rival granted a better gallop.  

The 4-year-old Blue Sari, the ante post favourite, was an easy winner on soft ground at Gowran Park on his racecourse debut back in January. Has subsequently been purchased by JP McManus and given he’s trained by Willie Mullins must be respected. Priced up on reputation and connections rather than what he’s achieved on the track compared to Envoi Allen.

At bigger odds Thyme Hill could go well. The Philip Hobbs trained 5-year-old made a winning racecourse debut at Worcester back in October before finishing runner-up in a Listed bumper here the following month. Soft ground would be an unknown for the gelding and his full sister seemed to prefer a sounder surface.  His sire Kayf Tara has an excellent record with his progeny at the track in NHF races with 4 winners from 13 runners 31% +12.88 7 placed 54% since the start of 2015. He could repay each way support if he’s effective on the rain softened ground.

Always check with an odds comparison service like Oddschecker to get the best prices available

All selections win only unless indicated as each way.

Good luck with your bets.

Cheers

John

Hi all,

Well the Cheltenham Festival is finally here. The months of waiting have come to an end. The “Greatest Show On Earth” well in terms of horse racing anyway, begins at 1:30 when the tapes go up for the start of the Supreme Novices Hurdle.

Just to let you know. There won’t be a Horses To Follow post on Thursday as I will be concentrating on Cheltenham from now until Friday. Normal service in terms of the eyecatchers will return a week on Thursday.

As a point of information, I won’t be looking at every race each day in these daily notebooks because there are some races that really don’t interest me. I will also look at some races in more detail than others. It’s likely this post will be the longest of the next four days due to time constraints as the action gets underway.

Without further ado, lets gets started.

Cheltenham Festival 2019 – Day 1

The meeting looks set to start on good to soft at best and if the forecast rain arrives it could well be soft.  I am going in with plenty of bets today.

1:30 – Sky Bet Supreme Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1) – 2m ½ f

I am more of a handicap than a non-handicap punter, but I do take an interest in races like this at Cheltenham Festival.

A field of 18 have been declared to go to post for this year’s renewal.

Looking at the trends: Nine of the last eleven winners, or 83% of the winners from 23% of the total runners had the following traits:

Top Six in Betting

Winner Last Race

Season Runs: 2 to 5

That leaves a shortlist of Al Dancer, Fakir D’oudairies, Klassical Dream, Elixier De Nutz & Mister Fisher.

I doubt this is a vintage Supreme, but I still expect the winner to come from the above five runners. 

Verdict: Klassical Dream ticks the above trends boxes. The 5-year-old may not be as good as some of his trainer’s previous winner of the race. But he’s unbeaten on both his starts since coming over from France and showed a good battling attitude on the run-in in the Grade 1 novices’ hurdle at Leopardstown last month.  I can see Mister Fisher, a Stablemate of Angel’s Breath, the 5-year-old has won both his last two starts over hurdles, including a Grade 2 at Haydock 52-days ago. He needs to improve on that here, but he’s only had three starts over hurdles so that’s possible. Both his wins have come on flat tracks, so Cheltenham is a bit of an unknown. If he handles the course, he could run into the places.

Klassical Dream -9/2 @ William Hill & Coral

Mister Fisher – 16/1 @ Ladbrokes – each way – (paying 4 places 1/5 odds)

2:10 – Racing Post Arkle Challenge Trophy Novices’ Chase (Grade 1) – 2m

A field of 12 have been declared to go to post for this year’s race. A bit like the previous race. Not my favourite type of contest. Once again narrowing the race down to a few key trends.

Ten of the last eleven winners of the Arkle Novices’ Chase or 91% of the winners from 38% of the total runners had the following traits:

Horses Age: 6yo to 7yo

Chase Runs: 1 to 4

Days Since Last Run: 16 to 75

Last Time Out Placing: First or Second

Using the above trends, the horses I would be concentrating on are Glen Forza, Duc Des Genievres, Paloma Blue, Kalashnikov & Clondaw Castle.

Verdict: Of the trend’s horses Paloma Blue is a classy horse but his jumping since going chasing has been slightly disappointing. At least he did win a decent looking beginners’ chase at Leopardstown over Christmas. Henry De Bromhead is a trainer capable of ironing out the 7-year-old’s jumping issues. If his jumping holds up, he can go well. Gordon Elliott has just the one representative Hardline. The 7-year-old is 3 wins from 5 starts since going over fences. The drop back to anticipated strongly run 2m will suit, as will rain softened ground and he need respecting. Gordon Elliott has a good record when he has just the one runner in a non-handicap race at the Festival – 16 winners from 53 runners 30% +115.98 27 placed 51%.

Hardline – 5/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

2:50 – Ultima Handicap Chase (Grade 3) – 3m 1f

This is more like it the first of today’s two handicaps. A maximum field of 24 are set to go to post for the race.

There are four recent eyecatchers running in this year’s renewal. Before I look at those runners. Let’s focus on some of the key race trends:

Not a bad race for trends fans. Ten of the last eleven winners or 91% of the winners from 28% of the total runners of the Ultima had the following traits:

Days Since Last Run: 16 to 45

Handicap Chase Wins: 0 to 1

Runs At The Track: 1+

Distance Move: Up from last race.

Backing all such qualifiers would have seen a +74 profit to SP and +95.28 to Betfair SP. For each way punters the profit would have been +102.50.

There are just two qualifiers using the above trends Minella Rocco and Activial.

It’s not often that a 24-runner handicap is reduced to just a shortlist of two. A note of caution with these trends could be the way to go. Although I do like both runners.

The four eyecatchers running are Lake View Lad, Noble Endeavor, Flying Angel & Willie Boy. The latter two named have doubts on the stamina front but there is no doubting that Flying Angel is a well handicapped horse.

Noble Endeavor was third in this race last year two years ago off 4lb higher. The 10-year-old has only had two starts since but ran with a bit of promise in the Becher Chase on his sole start this season back in December. If he was in the form of two years ago, he would be major contender. This could be a good prep for the Grand National!

Lake View Lad is another probably looking for a tilt at the Grand National. Up 8lb since winning the Rowland Meyrick at Wetherby on Boxing Day. The 9-year-old is going the right way and the more rain the better but top-weight of 11-12 will be some performance.

Verdict: Minella Rocco is to well-handicapped to ignore but further rain probably wouldn’t be to his liking.  Activial scores highly on the trends but like Flying Angel there is a slight doubt about his stamina for 3m 1f. I am going to take a chance on his stamina as he looks overpriced. I am also going each way on Noble Endeavor.

Noble Endeavor – 14/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes – each way – (paying 5 places 1/5 odds)

Activial – 50/1 @ William Hill – each way – (paying 5 places 1/5 odds)

3:30 – Unibet Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophy (Grade 1) – 2m 1f

The race needs no introduction as it’s the feature race of Day 1 of the Festival. Buveur D’Air trained by Nicky Henderson bids to win the race for the third successive year.

Let’s look at the key trends. Ten of the last 11 winners of the Champion Hurdle or 91% of the total runners from 29 % of the total runners had the following traits:

Odds SP: 12/1 & under

Best in Three Runs: 1^st

Highest Class Run: Grade 1

Runs in Season: 2 to 4

Distance Beaten Last Race: Won or within 4 lengths

Using the above trends, the three qualifiers are Apple’s Jade, Buveur D’air & Laurina.

Verdict: Giving 7lb to Apple’s Jade is going to be a tough ask for double Champion Hurdle winner Buveur D’Air. Laurina’s form isn’t as good as the other two but she could be capable of a lot better. At the prices I am happy to go with Buveur D’Air to make it the three on the bounce especially as the ground looks perfect.

Buveur D’Air  -11/4 @ Coral & William Hill

4:10 – OLBG Mares’ Hurdle (Registered As The David Nicholson Mares’ Hurdle) (Grade 1) – 2m 4f

A field of fifteen mares are declared to go to post. A third of the runners are trained by Willie Mullins who could very easily have the first three home. He also has the likely odds on favourite in Benie Des Dieux who’s the choice of Ruby Walsh.

It’s not a race I intend to look at from a trend’s perspective.

Of the rest Roksana trained by Dan Skelton hold some interest. The lightly raced seven-year-old ran with promise when 3^rd to Buveur D’air at Sandown on her last start. She was staying on at the end of the 2m and will be suited by today’s longer trip.

Verdict: I think this race will most likely go to Willie Mullins and arguably this is Ruby Walsh’s best chance on the day with Benie Des Dieux. Roksana could repay each-way support. But its not a race I have strong opinions on.

4:50 – Close Brothers Novices’ Handicap Chase (Listed Race) (Class 1) – 2m 4f

A maximum field of 20 are set to go to post for this novices’ handicap chase.

There is one recent eyecatcher entered. Before looking at that one, let’s focus on some of the key race trends:

Now the trends managed to find last years winner Mister Whitaker. Let’s hope they can do so again. The race is a relatively new one to the festival, as it was only first run in 2005.

Ten of the last eleven runners of the race or 91% of the winners from 26% of the total runners shared the following traits:

Odds SP: 16/1 & under

Official Rating: 135 to 142

Highest Class Win: Grade 3 or less

Days Since Last Run: 16 to 60

Using the above trends to find a manageable shortlist for further form study. We are left with 8 qualifiers: Riders Onthe Storm, Walt, Ben Dundee, Shady Operator, Roaring Bull, Lough Derg Spirit, Good Man Pat & Solomn Grundy. The last of those runners is one of our recent eyecatchers.

Verdict: There looks to be plenty of early pace in this race with a few who like to get on with it from the front. The pace of the race should suit Solomn Grundy but he’s dropping back in trip which may not be an advantage. He’s capable of winning a handicap like this if the distance move isn’t an inconvenience. Riders onthe Storm looks to have a favourites chance. The 7-year-old has only had three starts over fences but travelled like a high class when winning a Punchestown novice chase 30-days ago. He could be a well handicapped horse off a mark of 139 for trainer Tom Taaffe who won this race in 2008. A must for the shortlist. Good Man Pat, trained by Alan King, ticks the trends boxes and was a good third to Bags Groove in a Grade 2 at Kempton 17-days ago. If this race doesn’t come to quick, he should go well and he’s effective on rain softened ground.

Riders onthe Storm – 8/1 @ William Hill & Paddy Power

Solomn Grundy – 25/1 @ William Hill – each way – (paying 5 places 1/5 odds)

5:30 – National Hunt Challenge Cup Amateur Riders’ Novices’ Chase (Grade 2) – 3m 7 ½ f

A race for amateur riders concludes Day 1 of the festival with a field of 18 set to go to post for the longest race of the four days.

We have a recent eyecatcher in Whisperinthebreeze, trained by Jessica Harrington, declared to run.

Looking at the key trends for the race. Ten of the last eleven winners of the race or 91% of winners from 34% of the total runners shared the following three traits:

Odds SP: 20/1 & under

Runs in Season: 4+

Maximum Distance Won: 2m 4f to 3m 2f

Using the above one gives us a trends shortlist of five: Le Breuil, Jerrysback, Atlanta Ablaze, Gun Digger and Whisperinthebreeze.

Now I am a bit cautious with the trends for this race. Not included are the two market leaders Ok Corral & Ballyward, who both fail the runs in the season trend. However, the list does include our eyecatcher.

Verdict:  You are taking a chance if you’re playing here that your selection will stay this marathon trip.  You can never rule out a Gordon Elliott runner as he’s won this race three times since 2011. He saddles Gun Digger who is also qualifier from the Gordon Elliott micro angle I mentioned earlier. Le Breuil, trained by Ben Pauling, should go well and has the added assistance of Jamie Codd in the saddle. Jerrysback’s form is a good any in the field but his jumping hasn’t always been the best. I’m reluctant to reject Whisperinthebreeze who should be well suited by this distance but the soft ground tempers enthusiasm. Indeed, the trainer has said the better the ground the better he is. 

Gun Digger – 20/1 @ Paddy Power – each way (paying 4 places 1/5 odds)

Le Breuil – 14/1 – Gen – each way

Always check with an odds comparison service like Oddschecker to get the best prices available

All selections win only unless indicated as each way.

Good luck with your bets.

Cheers

John