Author: John Burke

Hi all,

Given the good recent run we have been having. What a disappointing three days we had at the Aintree Grand National Festival.

We have an eyecatcher running on Monday in at Redcar.

Redcar

4:30 – Kilbaha Lady – 13/2 @ Paddy Power or 6/1 @ William Hill & Bet365 – The 5-year-old a winner on firm and good ground in the past, has been running well on the all-weather since the turn of the year without getting her head in front. The mare gets the first time cheekpieces today and is worth one final chance.

Cheers

John

Hi all,

I have to say the last few days at the Aintree Festival have been challenging to say the least. With our recent profitable run coming to an end

There are no selections for Sunday.

Cheers

John

Apologies, I’m at Aintree for the next two days so today’s email is shorter than normal.

Saturday 6^th April

Aintree

1:45 – Sire Du Berlais won the Coral Cup at the Cheltenham Festival. The 7-year-old has been up 8lb for that win which demands more from the gelding. A useful 3lb claimer negates some of that weight rise. Remains capable of further progression over 3m.

The David Pipe trained Poker Play finally came good for trainer when winning a Uttoxeter handicap hurdle 21-days ago. Ground won’t be as testing as it was then, and the 6-year-old is now up 11lb. Capable of going well again if he stays the 3m.

Sire Du Berlais – 4/1 @ William Hill & Bet365

Poker Party – 10/1 – Gen

2:25 – Angel’s Breath, disappointed when 7^th of 16 in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle. Had looked a young hurdler with promise when runner-up at Kempton two starts back. The step up to 2m 4f looks a good move and the 5-year-old is worth another chance here.

Angel’s Breath –

5:15 – Randox Health Grand National Handicap Chase (Grade 3) – 4m 2 1/ 2 f

The world’s most famous horse race with a maximum field of 40 runs declared for the race. My two against the field are:

Jury Duty – 16/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes – each way (paying 6 places 1/5 odds)                

Joe Farrell – 20/1 @ William Hill – each way (paying 6 places 1/5 odds)

Always check with an odds comparison service like Oddschecker to get the best prices available

All selections win only unless indicated as each way.

Cheers

John

Last weekend was the start of the turf flat season at Doncaster. It was great to see it back especially as it took place in some delightful spring sunshine and unseasonably quick ground particularly on the Sunday.

This weekend it’s back to jumps with Aintree centre stage. Which of course means one thing the world most famous horse race the Grand National.

Before we focus on the Aintree action lets to look back at the Doncaster action and my first six flat horses for the tracker.

This Horses To Follow

Saturday 30th March

Doncaster

Ripp Orf, trained by David Elsworth. Before the race I thought the gelding was probably in the grip of the handicapper. Now, I am not so sure. Held up as normal, the 5-year-old was tanking along in the hands of Hayley Turner. Making good headway two out he didn’t get the best of passages and had to be switched to make his effort.

It didn’t affect his winning chance although he might well have finished runner-up. Still it was good to see him finish his race off as strongly as he did to grab 5th. Given how well he performs at Ascot, on good to firm going 2 wins from 3 runs 3 placed with form figures 131 and on good to firm going 3 wins from 7 runs 6 placed with form figures 1212314. It’s not hard to his optimum conditions are a straight 7f or 1m on quick ground.

The gelding is 5lb higher than for the last of those wins but on the evidence of his Lincoln run he remains on a competitive mark for one of those big field handicaps at Ascot in the coming months.

Kempton

Now a couple from Kempton’s valuable all-weather card. Both were making their seasonal reappearances.

Whitefountainfairy, trained Andrew Balding, was having her first start since putting in an eyecatching performance when 7^th of 17 in big field Goodwood handicap back in August. Her run on Saturday was similarly worth noting. Slightly hampered at the start which didn’t help her cause. The 4-year-old made steady headway in the straight and managed to grab 4^th.

Given she had been off the track for 217-days she was entitled to need the run although it’s worth stating she did win first time up last season. There should be races in filly this summer at around 6f or 7f.

Soto Sizzler, trained by William Knight, the son of Mastercratsman improved on each of his first five starts last year. Culminating in a win at Glorious Goodwood in a Class 2 handicap. He looked a horse worth following as 4-year-old on the back of that win.

Not so good on his last two starts of 2018, whilst heavy ground could be excused for his Haydock defeat. Not sure what to blame for his poor run in the Old Rowley Cup at Newmarket on his final run.

A good seasonal reappearance when finishing 5^th of 16 in 1m 3f Roseberry Handicap.  He should come on for this run and he’s just 4lb higher than for his Goodwood win. So, he starts this season on a competitive mark for a decent handicap over 1m 4f to 1m 6f.

Sunday 31^st March

Doncaster

Proud Archi, trained by Michael Dods. The five-year-old has won 5 of his 27 starts on the grass so he holds no secrets from the handicapper. However, he starts 2019 off his last winning mark. This was an encouraging start to the season from the gelding in finishing 6^th of 19, beaten just 2 lengths at the line.

All five of his career wins have come at Beverley & Thirsk. He’s 3 wins from 8 starts 4 placed at Beverley and 2 wins from 3 starts at Thirsk. I am sure he will a handicap or two this season at around 7f at either of those two Yorkshire tracks.

Green Power, trained by John Gallagher, a winner of an Ascot 3-year-old handicap last August before running just as well against the older horses back at the same track.

Starts this season off just 1lb higher than for that Ascot win. Given, he’s no great record going fresh he was entitled to need his first start for 177-days on Sunday. Still, it was highly encouraging that he was able to run as well as he did here in finishing 4^th of 17. The 4-year-old looks capable of winning a handicap or two in the coming months.

Guildhall, trained by Ralph Beckett, one win from three starts as a 2-year-old. That win came on heavy ground at Ayr back in September. He looked like a juvenile who could make into a useful 3-year-old.

Returning from a 163-day break, he was well backed before the off into 100/30 favourite on his handicap debut and his first start since a winter gelding operation. He just lacked a bit of speed when required in the final two furlongs but still ran well to finish 3^rd.

He should come on for this run and at least he showed that he could be effective on quicker ground although some juice in the ground might see him in an even better light. An opening handicap mark of 78 looks more than workable.

Weekend Betting Preview

Friday 5^th April

Aintree

It’s the second day of the Randox Health Grand National Festival and like day one I won’t be going into heavy, especially as rain on Thursday has turned the going soft.

1:45 – Merseyrail Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) – 2m 4f

A field of 22 are declared to go to post for what looks a very competitive renewal.

Mont Des Avaloirs was an eyecatcher on his 7^th of 14 in the rescheduled Betfair Handicap Hurdle at Ascot. The 6-year-old looks worth a go at 2m 4f and he looks capable of some more improvement. No issues with the soft ground for the gelding and he did win a novice hurdle back in December 2017.  Has each way claims, although trainer Paul Nicholls record in the race is 0 wins from 15 runners 3 placed in the past 11-years which tempers enthusiasm slightly.

Canardier, trained by Dermot McLoughlin, a novice hurdle winner at Cheltenham on his last start back in October returned to C&D to run a cracker in finishing 5th in the Coral Cup on his handicap hurdle debut. The 7-year-old has only had the nine career starts, winning three of them. Prior to this run his best form had come on a sound surface but he showed here that he can be effective on soft to. His record on good to yielding or quicker is 3 wins from 5 runs +8.75 5 placed with form figures 11231.

The ground could be even more testing than at Cheltenham so it’s going to be interesting how he handles it. Barry Geraghty has won on the horse and he’s back in the saddle again.

Of the rest.

Kobrouk, trained by Nicky Henderson whose won this race three times since 2013, is having his first start for his new trainer and first run since May 2017. Hard to say how well handicapped he is but he’s won fresh in the past so I doubt fitness will be an issue and there will be no problems with rain softened ground.

Esprit Du Large, trained by Evan Williams, has won two of his three starts over hurdles, including a ten-length win at Hereford 27-days ago. Handicap Hurdle debut off a mark of 132 looks tough enough but he’s got scope for further improvement.

Mont Des Avaloirs – 12/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes – each way (both paying 5 places 1/5 odds)

Canardier – 8/1 @ Coral & Bet365

Kobrouk – 20/1 @ Paddy Power – each way (paying 5 places 1/5 odds)

2:20 – Rouge Vif – The 5-year-old has really improved for the fitting of the hood winning three of his last four starts over hurdles. Made all to win a Grade 2 novice hurdle at Kelso 34-days ago. Could get an uncontested lead here and would be hard to peg back if he does. Clearly needs to improve further but he missed Cheltenham and his trainer Harry Whittington has had this race in mind ever since Kelso.

Rouge Vif – 9/1 @ William Hill & Bet365

2:50 – On form this looks a match between Topofthegame and Lostintranslation. But I wouldn’t underestimate the chances of Chris’s Dream trained by Henry De Bromhead. The 7-year-old made it two form three over fences when winning a 3m Grade 2 Novices’ chase at Navan 47-days. Missed Cheltenham, which could be a positive and, he’s effective on soft ground. Need to find more improvement to beat the market leaders, which is possible, or both of them to underperform. What impressed me when at looking his Navan win was his jumping which was excellent.

Chris’s Dream – 9/1 @ Coral & William Hill

4:05 – Randox Health Topham Handicap Chase (Grade 3) – 2m 5f

A field of 29 are declared for this race over the Grand National fences.

Call It Magic – Keeps knocking on the door, and he looks more than capable of landing a handicap chase like this. Ran well for a long way in the Becher Chase last December and the drop back to 2m 5f should be fine. The rain that has fallen look a major positive for the light weight. He will do for me.

Call It Magic – 8/1 – Gen

In addition to the Aintree selections a previous Eyecatcher Speaker Connolly goes for confidence booster back hurdling at Wexford. A faller in the Kim Muir at the Cheltenham Festival. He’s being running well over the larger obstacles. Races of a 14lb lower hurdle mark and looks capable of winning this.

Wexford

5:20 – Speaker Connolly – 5/2 @ William Hill & Ladbrokes

Always check with an odds comparison service like Oddschecker to get the best prices available

All selections win only unless indicated as each way.

Cheers

John

This week’s notebook will be with you on Thursday evening or Friday morning. However, It’s Day 1 of the Randox Health Grand National Festival and I have couple of selections from today’s racing at Aintree.

Aintree

1:45 – La Bague Au Roi, who bypassed Cheltenham is the one they all have to beat in this 2m 4f Grade 1 novices’ chase. However, there are a couple who ran in the Arkle at recent Cheltenham Festival who could run her close.

Kalashnikov who has yet prove he’s a Grade 1 novice chaser, was in the process of running a big race when hampered and unseating his rider at the 6^th. The step up to 2m 4f should be in his favour and he can go well.

Glen Forsa who his first three starts over fences before unseating his rider at the 4^th in the Arkle. The 7-year-old has plenty of potential of improvement in him. The step back to further should be in his favour and I take him do to beat the favourite.

Glen Forsa – 4/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

4:40 – A field of 18 are declared to go to post for what look like a competitive renewal of the 2m Red Rum Handicap Chase.

Eyecatcher Forest Bihan isn’t an easy horse to catch right but his 4^th of 19 in the Grand Annual at Cheltenham means he must be respected again although he wouldn’t want the going to ease much further.

R’evelyn Pleasure, has improved for the switch to fences this season. Seemed to find the 2m 2f trip at Gowran Park on soft ground to much stamina wise but still ran well enough when 3^rd of 11. The drop back to the minimum trip and slightly better ground will suit the 7-year-old but this a hotter race than he’s competed in so far. Still he’s got each way claims.

Theinval, trained by Nicky Henderson is a real spring horse, he was third in this race last year before going onto win at Ayr off 2lb lower. Hard to think that the 9-year-old won’t be in the money again.

Azzuri, hasn’t done much in his three starts this season since re-joining the Dan Skelton stable. He’s been weak in the betting on his last two starts but he’s a best priced 9/1. Not inconceivable that he’s been laid out for this and he’s a nicely handicapped horse if he bounces back today.

Paul Nicholls saddles Brelan D’As and Diego Du Charmil. Both have good chances the former was 3^rd in the Grand Annual. Meanwhile the former returns to the scene of his C&D Grade 1 novices’ chase 12 months ago. The 7-year-old hasn’t reached last years best form on his three starts so far this season. He looked a promising young chaser last season and he would be on a potentially winnable mark if he was to be back to his very best here.

Verdict: R’evelyn Pleasure has each way claims, as does spring horse Theinval. Azzuri needs respecting given his strength in the ante-post betting and Diego Du Charmil could be the pick of the Nicholls pair.

R’evelyn Pleasure – 20/1 @ William Hill – each way (paying 5 places 1/5 odds)

Diego Du Charmil – 8/1 @ Coral & William Hill

Cheers

John

Hi all,

Just the one winner on Saturday courtesy of Petrus advised 8/1 in the Spring Mile at Doncaster. Still a solid day’s profits is that that’s needed.

On Sunday, we have jumps racing at Ascot and the second day of the Lincoln Meeting at Doncaster. Not a day to go to get too heavy involved in but I have selections running at both meetings.

Sunday March 31st

Ascot

4:30 – Junction Fourteen – 5/1 @ Paddy Power or 9/2 – Gen –  The 10-year-old produced a better effort when runner-up in a veterans’ chase at Doncaster. On the evidence of that effort he’s on a potentially winning mark off 8lb lower than for his last win, albeit that did come almost three years ago.

Doncaster

2:00 – Prevent – 9/1 @ William Hill – each way – (paying 5 places 1/5 odds) – Is having his first since switching from Ralph Beckett. The 4-year-old won over 6f last season before finishing runner-up over 7f at Ascot. He was beaten just a neck at Ascot off just 2lb lower. Just had the nine career starts, so there’s still scope for improvement from him, and it’s hard not to think new trainer Ian Williams will get a win or two out of the gelding this season.

Cheers

John

Hi all,

There are not many eyecatchers this week so I will combine the horses to follow and weekend betting preview into one which I will send out on Friday evening.

We have a recent eyecatcher running at Fontwell on Friday.

Fontwell

5:20 – Only Money – 5/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes – The 5-year-old shaped with promise on his debut at Ascot and wasn’t disgraced in a decent bumper at Wincanton 93-days ago. Given a final chance to build on his earlier promise here.

Cheers

John

Hi all,

Well the Irish Flat Season began last week at Naas and today it’s the UK turn at Doncaster on Saturday.

As I have mentioned over the past two weeks. My horses to follow are in that transition stage, with just the odd National Hunt horse, until the flat season start to kick in.

The highlights of this weekend’s racing are Doncaster two-day Lincoln meeting that starts on Saturday and an interesting jumps card at Ascot on Sunday.

Before looking at this weekend betting. Let’s focus on last weeks three horses for your trackers.

This Week’s Horses to Follow

Friday 22^nd March

Newbury

Air Navigator, trained by Tom George, a winner on his chase debut at Ffos Las back in November. A faller when still in with a chance two starts back at Newbury. Looked on a competitive mark returning to handicap company. He jumped and travelled well throughout the race but was a never nearer third at the finish.

Given all his wins have come on heavy or soft ground the drying ground on Friday probably wasn’t really in his favour. He clearly stays 2m 7 ½ f well enough and could get a bit further on the evidence of this run.

If the going eases over the coming weeks he remains a handicap chaser on a winnable mark.

Saturday 23^rd March

Newbury

Joe Farrell, trained by Rebecca Curtis, last seasons Scottish Grand National winner was the only one runner to give Chic Name a race in the 3m 2f handicap chase that opened Saturday’s Newbury card.

The 10-year-old needed the run on his seasonal reappearance earlier in the month, but this was much better. He eventually finished well clear of the third but was unfortunate to come up against a well-handicapped horse who benefitted from having useful 5lb claimer in the saddle. This will have put him on course for a tilt at the Aintree National which is just a week away now.

Elysees, trained by Alan King, a winner on good to firm on the flat last summer has made a decent transition to hurdling winning two juvenile hurdles back in November before finishing a close-up second to Quel Destin in a Grade 2 at Doncaster.

Given a short break after that run the four-year-old had gone well enough on the all-weather before his handicap hurdle debut on Saturday. This was his first start over hurdles beyond an extended 2m and he showed that he stayed the new distance really well. He was staying on as well as anything between the last two and almost snatched third.

On the evidence of this run he should get further than 2m 3f and as he’s well suited to a sounder surface. Up 2lb for this effort. There could be a staying handicap hurdle in the 4-year-old on a sound surface before the season is out.

Weekend Betting Preview

Saturday 29^th March

If you discount World Cup Night at Meydan the big flat race of the weekend is the Lincoln Handicap over the straight mile at Doncaster.

Doncaster

3:35 – Unibet Lincoln (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) – 1m

The ante post favourite is the Godolphin owned Auxerre at 7/2. The drying ground will be in his favour and it could be that the 4-year-old proves to be better than a handicapper this season and indeed is a Group horse in handicap. He has an obvious chance of giving his trainer Charlie Appleby a second win in the race. 

Humbert, trained by David O’Meara is another to catch my eye. He makes his debut for the trainer today and I tipped up as an each-way selection in my Monday Daily Punt column.

The 5-year-old’s four career wins have come on the all-weather for previous trainer Hugo Palmer. He’s 0 form 6 on the grass but has finished runner-up three times. Has since moved to his present trainer, same owner. One of those runner-up efforts came at this meeting in the Spring Mile over C&D, off 8lb lower, before filling the runner-up spot in the Newbury Spring Cup off 4lb lower. First run since October but he’s won off a longer layoff so fitness shouldn’t be an issue. Two of his best turf runs have come on good to soft, he’s effective over a mile and he handles a big field. 

Irish raider Saltonstall is making his debut for new trainer Aidan McGuiness. He’s been well backed in the ante-post betting this week. The 5-year-old is just 2lb higher than when winning a mile handicap at the Curragh last May. First start for 210 days but was runner -up in the Irish Lincolnshire on last season’s seasonal appearance. Starts this campaign on a potentially winnable mark and is well suited to quick ground.

Great Prospector, was a useful juvenile winning at Nottingham before putting in a career best when 3^rd to Gustav Klimt in a Newmarket Group 2 two seasons back. Not as good a s 3-year-old but did put in a career best when 3^rd in a 7f Redcar Listed race last October. That run came off a 112-day break so he goes well fresh and is another who will be suited by the drying ground. Stamina for a mile must be proved but he has each-way claims at a big price if he stays

Beringer, trained by Alan King, is an interesting runner dropping back to a mile. He did his running last year at 1m 2f, putting in a career best when beaten just ¾ length into second by subsequent Cambridgeshire winner Wissahickon at York last summer. A progressive 3-year-old he remains capable landing a valuable handicap like this off his present mark of 96. Andrea Atzeni, 2 wins from 6 rides 33% +1.58 4 placed when riding for the trainer is a positive booking considering how well the jockey rides Doncaster.

Verdict: Great Prospectorhas each way claims at a big price. Saltonstall races off a winnable mark and is suited by a straight mile. Meanwhile, the strong travelling Beringer could well be suited by the drop back to a mile and the return to good ground. Add in Humbert and of course Auxerre and you have the makings of a competitive race.

Saltonstall – 10/1 @ Paddy Power & William Hill

Beringer – 8/1 @ William Hill & Ladbrokes

2:25 – Unibet Spring Mile Handicap (Class 2) – 1m

Petrus, trained by Brian Meehan. Handles a big field and a straight course. Look on a competitive mark based on his 1 length, 3^rd of 15 at Ascot last July. Gelded since his last run and the first time cheekpieces replace the blinkers he wore on most runs last season.

Exec Chief, won three of his four starts since joining his present trainer last summer. According to Racing Post Ratings he improved on each of his four starts. This will be only the 4-year-olds ninth career run and he could be capable of better this year.

Exec Chief – 9/1 @ Bet365

Petrus – 8/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

Kempton

2:40 – Desert Doctor, has been in good form on the all-weather this winter and has won two of his last three starts. Last time out he won at Chelmsford over today’s distance. Up just 3lb for that win 21-days ago and he looks capable of going close again here.

Desert Doctor – 7/1 @ William Hill & Bet365

In addition to the above we have a recent eyecatcher running at Uttoxeter.

Uttoxeter

3:55 – Defi Sacre raced last time at Doncaster that he should be suited by todays longer trip. There must be a doubt about the good ground for the 6-year-old but if he’s effective on it he’s capable of getting into the places.

Defi Sacre – 16/1 @ Bet365 – each way (paying 4 places ¼ odds) or 14/1@ – each way – William Hill & (paying 4 places ¼ odds)

Always check with an odds comparison service like Oddschecker to get the best prices available

All selections win only unless indicated as each way.

Good luck with your bets.

Hi all,

We have a recent eyecatcher running at Chelmsford.

Chelmsford

5:30 – Kibaha Lady – 10/3 @ Bet365 – Has been knocking on the door in these type of handicaps of late. Not the easiest to win with but capable of winning this if all the cards fall right. Worth a final chance to get into the winners enclosure.

Cheers

John

Hi all,

Another profit, albeit a small one, banked on Saturday courtesy of two winners – Some Chaos at Kelso and Gala Ball at Newbury,

I have had a look at the Sunday action and the the first flat meeting of the season at Naas looks an absolute minefield so I am going to leave it alone.

There is one recent eyecatcher running today at Carlisle.

Carlisle

2:55 – Piton Pete – 15/8 @ William Hill & Bet365 – The 8-year-old is gradually improving with each run over fences. A decent hurdler last season on rain softened ground. He’s worth a final chance here, as he’s surely capable of winning a race like this.

Cheers

John