Hi all,
Before I begin
this week’s notebook, I will give you some bad news. I was diagnosed with likely
kidney cancer on Monday and I will be having my left kidney removed next Thursday.
This means there will be no weekly notebook and weekend betting previews for
the next two weeks. I’m hoping to be back in the saddle, so to speak, on Monday
April 29th. Just in time for the Guineas Meeting.
This weekend
it’s great one for both flat and jumps fans. At Newbury we have the Greenham
Meeting which starts on Friday and features the first Guineas Trial’s: the Greenham
& Fred Darling Stakes. Meanwhile up in Scotland it’s the two-day Scottish
Grand National Festival at Ayr, which also starts on Friday.
Before
looking at the Friday action from Ayr & Newbury lets take a quick look back
at last weeks action.
Firstly, I must confess Aintree was poor one for the service. However, Kilbaha Lady eased the pain, slightly, with a 7/1 win at Redcar on Monday.
Secondly, whilst
I have a couple of horses to from Aintree. This week’s two horses for the
tracker come from Tuesday’s Musselburgh card.
Aintree Review
As I have
mentioned before I am concentrating on the flat now, but I thought I would briefly
mention a couple of runners who put up eye-catching performances at last week’s
Randox Health Grand National Festival.
Friday 5th April
Point Of Principle, trained by Tim Vaughan. The 6-year-old
ran a cracker to finish second in the 2m 4f, Merseyrail Handicap Hurdle. Always
in a prominent position in a race which was run at a good gallop from the off.
He was challenging the leader coming to the second last but a mistake there and
at the last may well have cost him the race as he was run out of it in the final
100yds by a well handicapped Gordon Elliott runner. Not sure where he will go
now but he’s clearly on competitive mark and although he handles a sound
surface both his career wins have come on soft.
Saturday
6th April
Thistimenextyear, trained by Richard Spencer, had broke
his maiden tag over hurdles when winning at Fakenham two starts back. The
5-year-old was well backed into 6/1 to follow up in the Conditional /amateur jockeys
race that concluded the Saturday card. Travelling like a well handicapped
horse. A mistake two out didn’t help his cause but he still ran on all the way
to the line to finish just a head off the winner Chief Justice. He will rise in
the weights for this effort but he’s an improving handicap hurdler who should
remain on a competitive mark. A decent enough, middle-distance handicapper on
the flat he could well run on the level in the coming weeks if he gets soft
ground.
Grand
National
I can’t not
mention the Grand National. My two darts at the race Jury Duty and Joe Farrell were
both well backed before the off.
Jury Duty
The
8-year-old was sent off at odds of 10/1. I thought he ran well for a long way until
being hampered at the 18th and unseating his rider. I’m sure he will back again next year.
Joe Farrell
Was also well
backed before the race and returned at 14/1. He was never really travelling
from the off. Maybe the race came to soon after Newbury or maybe he just didn’t
fancy it after a mistake at the first. He had weakened out of contention when
pulling up before the second last. There will be other days for the
10-year-old.
The Rest
Of the rest Walk In The Mill ran a cracker to
finish 4th and wouldn’t have been suited by the drying ground. He will
no doubt be aimed at the race again next year. One For Arthur, bounced back to form with his 6th placed
effort. This was his best run since winning the 2017 renewal. He looked to be
making notable headway four out and looked sure to place but his effort just flattened
out coming to the last. Last year’s runner-up Pleasant Company who had jumped magnificently, was still in contention,
when making his sole mistake and unseating his jockey four out. Ballyoptic was also in the process of
running a big race when also falling four out. He was just starting to come
under pressure at the time. However, it’s not hard to think both he and Pleasant
Company could have finished in the money. Although, I doubt either would have
beaten Tiger Roll.
This Weeks Horses to Follow
Given the
lack of flat action last week it’s a quiet one on the tracker horse front this
week.
Tuesday
2nd April
Musselburgh
City
Tour, trained by Mark Johnston. The
3-year-old was making his seasonal reappearance in the 7f handicap for 3-year-old
only. The son of Dutch Art had shown promise on three starts as a juvenile most
notably when finishing 4th of 14 in Doncaster maiden on the final
day of the flat season.
Drawn out
wide on his handicap debut. He did well to win given how keen he was, without
cover, in the early part of the race. He
only held on by a short head but was value for a bigger win.
The
handicapper has only put this improving colt up 3lb for this success and he looks
capable of winning more and better races with this run under his belt.
Fennaan, trained by rookie trainer Philip Makin. The 4-year-old
was having his first start for the trainer since switching from the John Gosden
stable.
Another who
was drawn out wide in stall 11. He was easy to back before the off but ran a
race full of promise in finishing 5th of 10. Racing in the
first-time hood. the gelding was only beaten 3 ½ lengths at the line. Given his
wide passage this effort can be marked up.
This run
should have put the gelding cherry ripe fitness wise and the handicapper has
dropped him 2lb after this good effort. He’s on a winnable mark, 1lb lower than
for his last win at Kempton. He should win a handicap like for his new trainer in
the coming weeks.
Weekend Betting Preview –
Part 1
We have some
good action at Ayr & Newbury on Friday. Indeed, it’s more akin to a Saturday
than a Friday.
Ayr
2:20- Remus Uomo Handicap Hurdle
(Class 3) – 2m
Our Lucas, is having his first run for Iain
Duncan. The 7-year-old is 13lb higher than when runner-up in this race 12
months ago and 6lb higher than when winning at Perth back in August. Well
suited to good ground his two best performances on Racing Post Ratings have
come on such going. Up against horses from the Henderson & King yards. Latter,
who won last year’s race, saddles Deyrann
De Carjec. The 6-year-old is back in handicap company for the first time
since falling two in the valuable Greatwood Handicap Hurdle at Cheltenham back
in November. Suited by good ground he looks the one to beat here.
Our
Lucas – 10/1 – Gen – each way
Deyrann
De Carjec – 9/2 – Gen
2:55 – Seko Logistics Scotland
Novices’ Handicap Hurdle (Class 3) – 3m ½ f
Rhythm Is A Dancer, put in a career best when making all
to win at Ludlow 43-days ago. Got his own way out in front that day and
probably won’t get an uncontested lead here. Interestingly this will be the
6-year-old first run going left-handed. He’s well suited to quick ground and
could easily bolt up but at 2/1 I can happily let him win.
Second in the
market is the Neil King trained Myplaceatmidnight.
He also made all to Plumpton 32 days ago. Up for 4lb for that win he won’t be
far away here if he stays the 3m.
Landofsmiles, trained by Peter Bowen, is a six-race
maiden over hurdles but up a career best when beaten just a neck on his first
start at around 3m at Uttoxeter 13-days ago. The 6-year-old was doing his best
work at the finish and the stronger the gallop the better his chance is.
Myplaceatmidnight
– 4/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
Landofsmiles
– 13/2 @ William Hill & Coral
3:25 – Hillhouse Quarry Handicap Chase
(Listed Race) – 2m 4 ½ f
Nicky Henderson
saddles River Wylde & Gold Present. Both have chances
but my slight preference is for the first named who’s the choice of Nico De
Boinville. The 8-year-old has just had the four starts over fences. Was in the
process of running a big race on his seasonal reappearance and first start since
a wind operation when falling at the last at Haydock. Ran poorly at Cheltenham
last time but a return to better ground and a flatter track should suit him. Remains
a horse with potential over fences.
Dan Skelton
has won this race for the past two years. He saddles last years winner Value At Risk and Born Survivor. The former isn’t the most consistent of horses but he’s on a competitive mark
if on a going day. Born Survivor is just 3lb higher than when winning at
Wetherby on his seasonal reappearance back in November. The 8-year-old returns
from a 101-day absence but his form figure when racing off a 90+ day break are
211 so fitness shouldn’t be a problem. Has probably been trained for this and must
have a good chance of giving the trainer a 3rd successive win in the race.
Born
Survivor – 9/2 @ Ladbrokes & Coral
5:05 – Fosters Your Local Family
Funeral Directors Handicap Hurdle (Class 3) – 3m ½ f
The front two
in the betting, From Eden & My Way look
solid here. Both are taking a step up in distance, so stamina for an extended three
miles must be taken on trust.
My Way was a
good second at Kempton 27-days ago and although he needs to settle better to
stay 3m he shapes like he can improve for the step up in trip her. His trainer
Paul Nicholls won this race in 2014.
No stamina
issues for the Tom George trained Stop
The World who put in a career best when runner-up at Exeter 19-days ago
over 2m 7f. He’s improving with racing and each way claims. Another with place
claims is Shoal Bay. The 6-year-old
has 5 ½ lengths to find with My Way on their Kempton running but he gets a 3lb
pull and the first-time blinkers today.
My
Way – 7/2 @ William Hill & Coral
Newbury
2:35 – Dubai Duty Free Handicap (Class
2) – 5f
Kick On Kick On, trained by Clive Cox, has a great
record fresh and has won first time up for the past two seasons. Three from
seven over 5f and he handles soft ground. Solid chance here.
Charlie Hills
won this race in 2014 and he runs Spoof,
who might prefer a sounder surface, but he looks on a competitive mark.
Moon Trouble, was running a Group 3, 11 months ago,
when trained in France. Was very keen on his first start for Michael Appleby
when 6th of 11 at Kempton 13-days ago. The return to 5f and the
addition of the first-time hood make him a contender off a mark of 90.
Kick
On Kick On – 11/4 @ William Hill
3:40 – Dubai Duty Free Full Of
Surprises Handicap (Class 2) – 7f
There are
doubts about the soft ground for the likes of Beat Le Bon & Blonde Warrior.
Reeves, end last season when winning a 7f
Doncaster maiden, on good to soft ground, back in October. The 3-year-old was
quietly progressive on his six starts last season and his Doncaster win was a
career best. I suspect there are runners in the field who will rate higher than
their present marks as the season goes on. But this is sort of handicap that
might not be win by the best horse. Reeves has been gelded over the winter and
if it can eke out a bit more improvement then he could be able to defy a mark
of 84.
Reeves
– 15/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes – each way (both paying 4 places 1/5 odds)
Always check
with an odds comparison service like Oddschecker to get the best prices
available
All
selections win only unless indicated as each way.
Cheers
John