York Dante Festival – Day 1 – May 15th 2019

Hi all,

York Dante Festival – Day 1

1:50 – A tricky 1m 4f Class 2 handicap, gets the meeting underway. It may pay to concentrate on improving horses at the front end of the market.

Fujaira Prince, is likely to go off favourite for Roger Varian. This lightly raced 5-year-old, just the four career starts, ran out a comfortable winner on his handicap debut at Doncaster 18-days ago. Should be more progress to come. Steps up 1 ½ f in distance here and should go well.

First Eleven, trained by John Gosden, looked a shade unlucky not to win a valuable handicap at Royal Ascot last summer over today’s distance, off 13lb lower. Progressive last summer he was a decisive of a Class 2 handicap at Ascot back in September, off 7lb lower, before being beaten in a soft ground Group back at that track a month later. Both career wins have come on good to firm. Trainer’s record at York between May & July  is a healthy 14 winners from 38 runners 37% +16.71 21 placed 55% since 2015.

Crystal King, broke his maiden tag at the 5th attempt last season when landing a Leicester handicap on good to soft. Improved further when asserting close home to win a Wolverhampton handicap. Handicapper has raised him 8lb for that success but he’s on the upgrade. His trainer Sir Michael Stoute is another trainer to do well at the track between May & July with 9 winners from 27 runners 335 +20.58 13 placed 48%, including 5 winners from 10 runners 50% +25.25 6 placed 60% in handicap races between 1m 2 ½ f & 1m 6f. Plenty to like about his chance although quick ground would be slight unknown.

First Eleven – 11/2 @ Paddy Power

Crystal King – 7/1 @ William Hill & Bet365

2:25 – Another big field handicap (22 runners) this time over 6f.

Vibrant Chords, trained by Henry Candy, returned to action with a great run to finish a nose, second at Kempton 25-days ago.  Ryan Moore who rode the 6-year-old that day keeps the ride. Up just 1lb from Kempton and looks set for a big run again. Has won second time up in the last two seasons.

Trainer Tim Easterby saddles three in the race Staxton, Flying Pursuit & Golden Apollo. The first named is the one I like most. The 4-year-old ran well to finish third on his seasonal reappearance and will fitter for that run. Has run well over C&D and looks the sort to win a decent pot this season.  Trainer has an impressive record in Class 2 sprint handicap at the course, with those going off 12/1 & under, providing all his 8 winners from 29 runners 28% +41 15 placed 52%

Aljady is another who go onto better things this season. The 4-year-old won his first three starts last season, all on good to firm, and ended last season with a length second at Ascot last October, off 2lb lower. Has the ground in his favour but is drawn out on a wing in stall 22.

Vibrant Chords – 10/1 @Bet365 & BetVictor

Staxton – 7/1 – Gen

3:35 – The Group 3 Musidora Stakes over 1m 2 ½ f.

John Gosden looks to have a very decent bunch of 3-year-old fillies this year. He saddles two her Entitle and likely favourite Sparkle Roll.  The daughter of Kingman has done well from two to three and looked good when winning a Sandown novice 19-days ago. Up in class here but there should be more improvement to come from her. Looked a shade uneasy on the ground at Sandown so probably wouldn’t want the going to be too quick here. Apart from that slight negative she’s got a great chance of landing this race.  I have mentioned the trainer’s record here earlier but it’s also worth noting his record in non-handicap races in May over 1m 2 ½ f & 1m 4f – 7 winners from 14 runners 50% +13.04 9 placed 64%

Sparkle Roll -11/4 @ William Hill

4:05 – Space Blues – The son of Dubawi makes his handicap debut today. The 3-year-old won on his racecourse debut at Nottingham last season. Has been beaten at odds on both his starts this season, too keen at Newbury two starts back and then was just touched off trying to concede 7lb to an improving Roger Varian gelding back at Nottingham 28-days ago. Drops back to 7f here but he travels powerfully in his races so the distance move looks more a positive than a negative. The bigger field and a more even gallop should also help the colt settle better.

Space Blues – 5/1 @ William Hill & Ladbrokes

5:05 – A class 4 handicap over 1m 4f and just the 20 runners. Equine bingo anyone?  Past Master for the Candy/Moore partnership will be popular with punters. Likewise, the David O’Meara trained Addis Ababa who seems to be improving with racing and should appreciate the step up to 1m 4f here. Jedd O’Keeffe saddles two in Starcaster & Desert Ruler. The former is the mount of Jamie Spencer. The 4-year-old made an encouraging first start for the trainer when 2nd of 9 at Thirsk 32-days ago. He looks on a competitive mark, but will the ground be too quick?  Benadalid was nicely progressive at around 1m 4f last summer, winning handicaps at Ripon & Chester on a sound surface. Returned to action when two places and six lengths behind Starcaster at Thirsk. Will be fitter today and will like the ground. Framley Garth’s course record warrants respect, 1 win from 6 runs 3 placed. A previous C&D winner. The 7-year-old was doing his best work at the finish when 4th of 19 I a 1m 2 ½ f handicap here back in September, off 3lb higher. He hasn’t been disgraced on his two start for new trainer Liam Bailey. Vulnerable to any improvers of his present mark but if he gets a decent pace to chase could get into the places at big odds.

Framley Garth – 16/1 -@ William Hill – each way (paying 5 places 1/5 odds)

Benadalid – 14/1 @ BetVictor & Paddy Power – each way (both paying 5 places 1/5 odds)

Always check with an odds comparison service like Oddschecker to get the best prices available.

All selections win only unless indicated as each way.

Cheers

John

VV’s Weekend Betting Preview – Part 2 – May 12th 2019

Hi all,

After a profitable Chester Festival. It was back down to earth with a bang on Saturday. No excuses there were some poor selections and some races I just shouldn’t have got involved in at all.

I read most of the big races badly, failing to add Cape Byron to the betting portfolio for the Victoria Cup was the biggest mistake. In his case I was expecting much softer ground than the race was run on.

Hey, that’s horse race betting one day you are up and the next you’re down.

There’s some excellent racing across Europe on Sunday. Over in France it’s their Guineas Weekend with the French versions of the 1,000 & 2,000 Guineas being held on the same day at Longchamp. Over in Ireland we have another Derby Trial with the Group 3 Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial Stakes at Leopardstown.

It’s also the start of yet another racing festival this one is at Killarney who host their three-day May Festival.  I have put two races under the microscope.

Leopardstown

3:25 – Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial – 1m 2f

Surely Aidan O’Brien isn’t going to win yet another Derby Trial is he?  Well he has the odds-on favourite in the shape of the recent Group 3 Ballysax winner Broome. If there is one horse in the field who could beat him and possibly become a genuine Derby contender, it could be the Dermot Weld trained Rakan. The Sea The Stars colt out of an Oaks runner-up Tarfasha looked a pattern class colt in the making when his maiden here over a mile last October. After that race his trainer nominated this race as the colt’s main early season target. He’s bred for middle distances and bred to win a Classic. Trainer won this race last year and in 2014. I will take on the favourite with potentially Group 1 class Rakan.

Rakan – 7/1 @ Ladbrokes & William Hill

Killarney

3:15 – A field of 13 are set to go post for this valuable 2m 1f handicap hurdle. Four of the field are owned by J P McManus. You can give all his runners a decent chance. Of his foursome I just prefer the claims of Feeling The Love. The mare returned from a 245-day break to finish 7th of 25 at the Punchestown, beaten about 8 lengths. The 6-year-old does need good ground to be seen at her best as she showed last summer when winning three times between July & August, including C&D. Even off her career high mark she has each way claims provided the going stays good.

The other McManus runner to catch the eye is the intriguing Getaway Katie Mai. The 6-year-old won the Mares Bumper at last years Aintree Grand National Festival. She’s just had the two starts over hurdles the last of which was 150-days ago when she won a Tramore novices’ hurdle. Handicap debut today. Fitness shouldn’t be a problem as she won of a similar lay off in the past. Look capable of more improvement and could be well ahead of her official rating of 123. Best form so far has come on soft or heavy ground but if she handles this quicker surface would go close.

Ejayteekay, has been in great from since returning from a short break in February. The 6-year-old won at Navan on soft ground two starts back, off 8lb lower and then followed that up with a career best when runner-up at Ballinrobe 30-days ago. Looks capable of another big run here.

Ejayteekay – 8/1 @ BetVictor & Paddy Power

Feeling the Love – 12/1 @ Paddy Power & William Hill (both paying 4 places 1/5 odds)

Always check with an odds comparison service like Oddschecker to get the best prices available.

All selections win only unless indicated as each way.

Cheers

John

Weekend Betting Preview – May 11th 2019

Hi all,

An excellent final day at the Chester May Festival with two wins from Heart Of Soul & Coeur De Lion with Who Dares Wins chipping in to land the each way part of the bet in the Chester Cup.

The rain that fell. More than expected over the three-days made punting difficult we still managed to get 4 winners and two placed efforts.  All in all, a profitable few days on the ‘Roodee’.

We have Derby & Oak’s Trials at Lingfield on Saturday. A good card at Ascot with the Victoria Cup a 7f handicap arguably the big betting race of the day. At Haydock we have a very rare mixed card of flat and jumps action. The highlight of Haydock’s card is the Pertemps Network Swinton Handicap Hurdle.

Let’s begin this preview at Ascot.

Ascot

2:15 – We have a recent Doncaster eyecatcher in Autumn War running in this race. The step up to 1m 4f will be in his favour. However, the soft ground is an unknown. The trainer Clive Cox has his horses in winning form there are no doubts about the going for his runner Now Children. The 5-year-old won two of his five starts last season, including on soft ground at Goodwood before finishing down the field in the November Handicap on his final start when the beaten favourite. Returns from a 182-day absence but won first time up last season off an even bigger lay off. He’s 2 wins from 2 runs going right handed. Starts this season 6lb higher than for his last win but can go well.

Autumn War – 15/2 @ William Hill & Coral

Now Children – 10/1 @ Ladbrokes & Coral

3:25 – The filly Adorable is having her first start for trainer William Haggas, since moving from the Mick Channon stable. The 4-year-old won a listed race last year and finished 3rd in a Group 3 at Deauville. Bella Ragazza won three of her seven starts last season. The 4-year-old seemed to handle good to soft well when putting up a career best when winning a Newmarket, Class 2 handicap 265-days ago. First run since then and up 8lb demands more from the filly but more improvement as a 4-year-old can’t be ruled out.

Bella Ragazza – 9/2 @ Ladbrokes

4:00 – Tote Victoria Cup (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) – 7f

Just a field of 25 go to post for this valuable handicap. You can give more than half of the field a chance. Here are the five on my shortlist in no particular order are:

Kynren, drops back to 7f today. Has run some great races in mile handicaps, including when a neck second at York last August and on his seasonal reappearance when second in the Lincoln Handicap. New trip looks interesting if the 5-year-old gets a decent pace to chase. Has the soft ground in his favour 2 wins from 4 runs 3 placed.

Cape Byron, returns from 217-day absence but did win first time up in 2017 so fitness shouldn’t be an issue. The 5-year-old is proven in big field C&D handicaps and ended last season with a ½ length second to Ripp Orf back in September, off 2lb lower and followed that up when finishing 7th of 15, when favourite, in October. Should go well but ideally may prefer a slightly sounder surface.

Presidential, took a soft ground 7f handicap at Newmarket in good style last November off 6lb lower. The 5-year-old made a highly encouraging reappearance when 3rd of 10, on good to firm, back at Newmarket 23-days ago. The second & fourth have since gone onto win, so the form of the race is working out well. He did best of those held up and a return to a softer surface should be in his favour.

Blue Mist, trained by Roger Charlton, is one of the least exposed runners in the field having just had the seven starts. The 4-year-old, twice a winner. The latter of those victorious came here over a mile in October. He ended last season when 4th of 10 in a strong mile handicap at Kempton. A strongly run 7f like this could play to his strengths although he maybe better over a mile. He has the potential to do better at four but of concern would be the soft ground.

Taurean Star, there are no worries about the going for the him. The 6-year-old also likes these big field handicaps where he can best deploy his come from behind style of running. A winner over 7f on good to soft at Goodwood 12 months ago, off 2lb lower. Quiet return to action at Kempton but the trainer’s horses are going well at present so better can be expected. Needs a good pace to chase and some luck in the run but if he gets them, he can get into the money.

A couple of eyecatchers also take their chance in the contest.

Ripp Orf last year’s winner attempts the double he’s got a great record here over the straight mile in these big field handicaps – 2 wins from 4 runs 4 placed. He ran well to be second over C&D on soft ground back in October, but he remains for a me a better horse on a sounder surface.  He’s on a competitive mark and I’m reluctant to leave him out of calculations despite slight going reservations.

Green Power steps up from sprint distances for his first start over 7f. No issues with the ground. If he stays, he’s on a winnable mark but this is a tough race to test the 4-year-old’s stamina.

Verdict:  If Blue Mist handles the ground, he’s a contender. The soft ground could blunt the speed of Cape Byron. Presidential has returned to action in great form and should appreciate the return to an easier surface. Kynren always seems to come up short in these races but if he gets a good pace to chase the drop back to 7f could do the trick. Taurean Star shouldn’t be underestimated. He’s on a competitive mark if he gets the race run to suit has each way claims.

Taurean Star – 25/1 @ William Hill & Coral (both paying 5 places 1/5 odds)

Blue Mist – 12/1 @ Bet365 & William Hill

Haydock

3:10 – Pertemps Network Swinton Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) – 2m

A field of 15 are declared to go to post for this valuable handicap hurdle. I’m going for a couple of selections at big prices.

Arthington, finished 2nd of 16 over C&D 21-days ago. The 6-year-old looks like he will get the same good ground he got last time. Up 4lb in a better race but he seems to be progressing with racing and trainer Seamus Mullins’ runners in the race have gone well in the past. He had the runner-up in last years race and third home in 2015. Each chance at a big price.

Thistimenextyear, creeps into the race at the bottom of the weights. The 5-year-old won at Fakenham two starts back and then put in a career best when runner-up, beaten a head, in a big field handicap hurdle at Aintree 35-days ago on good ground. Up 6lb for that effort so needs to progress but there’s every chance he can improve further. Useful Irish Conditional Darragh O’Keeffe keeps the ride.

Arthington -20/1 @ Coral – each way (paying 5 places 1/5 odds)

Thistimenextyear – 14/1 @ William Hill (paying 5 places 1/5 odds)

4:55 – The early favourite Politicise looked a shade unlucky at Musselburgh on his seasonal return.  He was slowly away and on day when it was hard to make up ground from the rear he did well to finish as close as he did.  The 4th in that race won a Chester this week and the winner has also gone in again. Politicise is open to plenty of improvement and looks the one they have to beat in this 1m handicap.

House Of Kings, trained by Clive Cox, looks a worthy opponent. The 3-year-old built on the promise of his first two starts last season when winning a novice at Leicester back in September. Starts the season on what looks a workable mark off 86 and also races in the first-time blinkers. Trainer has his horses among the winners (22% win strike rate in the past 14-days) and he also does well with the runners he sends to Haydock, including his 3-year-olds – 6 winners from 19 runners 32% +13.83 in the past 5-years.

House Of Kings – 9/2 @ William Hill & Ladbrokes

Lingfield

2:30 – RaceBets Derby Trial Stakes (Listed) (Class 1) – 1m 3f

Aidan O’Brien will strengthen his grip on the Epsom Derby should favourite Anthony Van Dyck make a winning seasonal reappearance in this Derby Trial. The son of Galileo won three of his first four starts as a juvenile before finishing runner-up to Quarto in a Group 1 at the Curragh. He subsequently finished 3rd to Too Darn Hot in the Dewhurst. Ended his 2-year-old season when a disappointing 9th of 14 at the Breeders Cup. On form he’s the one to beat. Plenty of speed on the dam side means he’s not guaranteed to stay this far.

Cap Francois, finished runner-up to another O’Brien horse in Derby Trial at Epsom17-days ago. It was a satisfactory return to action by the son of Frankel. He didn’t seem totally at home on the Epsom undualtions but was staying on well at the finish to get within half a length of the winner. Today’s extra furlong will suit the colt and if the favourite’s stamina fails, he could be able to take advantage.

Eagles By Day, trained by Michael Bell is an intriguing runner. The colt showed stamina was his strong suit when staying on strongly to win a Salisbury maiden 13-days ago. By a Derby winner in Sea The Stars, He’s also a first foal of tough staying racemare, Missunited who won a 1m 6f Group 3 at Goodwood, was also runner-up in the Ascot Gold Cup in 2014 and put in a career best over hurdles to win the Galway Hurdle on heavy ground in 2013. This race looks a logical next step to see if he’s a genuine Derby contender.

Eagles By Day – 6/1 @ William Hill & Ladbrokes

Always check with an odds comparison service like Oddschecker to get the best prices available.

All selections win only unless indicated as each way.

Cheers

John

Chester May Festival – Day 3 – May 10th 2019

Hi all,

Once again concentrating on the handicaps. No wins on Thursday but Ayutthaya at 20/1 landed the each-way side of the bet in the lucky last.

Chester May Festival – Day 3

1:50 – Baraweez came from behind to win this race last year off 2lb lower but then went onto win another C&D handicap (both wins on good) off 2lb higher. Now show at Thirsk on Saturday but the 9-year-old is 3 wins from 8 runs 4 placed when running within 7-days of his last run. Good draw in stall three and another big run could be on the cards. Ptarmigan Ridge won here over half a furlong shorter last September for previous trainer James Fanshawe off 11lb lower. Made a pleasing return to action for his new trainer when runner-up at Haydock 13 days ago. Best form has come with plenty of ease in the ground and he’s got a good draw in stall 2.

Ptarmigan Ridge – 3/1 – Gen

3:00 – Restorer, makes his seasonal reappearance here like he did when winning last years race off 6lb lower. Ryan Moore is an eye-catching jockey booking for trainer Ian Williams 4 wins from 11 rides 36% +8.88 6 placed 55% since 2015.  The 7-year-old is a strong contender from stall 3. Trainer’s horses running respectably l but struggling for winners at present.

Epaulement, trained by Tom Dascombe, needs respecting from stall five. The 4-year-old made a winning return to action when making all to win at Ripon 22-days ago. He’s up just 3lb so remains on a competitive mark. Of more of a concern could be the softer ground best form so far has come on a sound surface although he’s only raced on good to soft on one occasion.

Verdict: There should be more to come from Epaulement but I’m just favouring last year’s winner Restorer to do the double in the hands of Ryan Moore.

Restorer – 6/1 @Bet365 & William Hill

3:35 – The big race of the three-day Chester May Festival, the Chester Cup over 2m 2 ½ f. A field of 17 are declared to go to post for this year’s renewal, including last years winner Magic Circle.

Magic Circle, is 15lb higher than for last years easy win, but Cieren Fallon takes off 7lb. Big ask off top-weight but not totally ruled out.

Austrian School battled on to win here 12-months ago and proved his well being when an easy winner of a valuable handicap at Musselburgh over 1m 6f 20-days ago He’s 3lb well in under his penalty and if he handles really, soft ground the one they probably all have to beat.

Cleonte, was third in the Cesarewitch on final run of last season and made an encouraging seasonal reappearance when putting in a career best when third behind Dee Ex Bee in the Group 3 Sagaro Stakes 9 days ago. Best form has come on a sound surface, but the 6-year-old has run well on heavy in the past. Big chance if in same form here, from stall 1.

Low Sun, one of two Willie Mullins trained runners was an early ante-post gamble for the race. Ryan Moore booked for last year’s Cesarewitch winner. There was plenty like about the 6-year-olds chance in the race. Sadly, for his ante post backers he’s got stall 17 which will probably prove in-surmountable. It’s will take one of Ryan Moore’s best ever rides to the gelding home.

Who Dares Wins, was third in this race 12 months ago off the same mark. Beaten 7 ½ lengths last year by Magic Circle. He’s a got a decent pull in the weights this time around. Drawn in stall 15 last year but drawn slightly better today in stall 12. Just the one run since that excellent effort when 3rd at Newbury 28-days ago. The softer ground is also in the 7-year-old favour. Solid each way chance again.

Fun Mac, was runner up in this race last year on his seasonal reappearance off 8lb higher and was even closer in 2017 when finishing third off 9lb higher, again on his return to action. Temptingly handicapped on previous form in the race and this softer ground will also be more to the 8-year-old liking. Stall four is a good draw again.

Time to Study, like stablemate Magic Circle trained by Ian Williams, was 5th in this race 12-months ago for previous trainer Mark Johnston and is 8lb lower now. No chance with the easy winner last year but wasn’t far behind Fun Mac & Who Dares Wins. Just the one start for his new trainer when tailed off on the all-weather 97 days ago, over an inadequate 1m 2f.  No problem with rain softened ground and is clearly well handicapped if returning to his best. Stall 13 does temper enthusiasm and he maybe one for races later in the season.

Verdict: Cleonte can go well for Andrew Balding. Who Dares Wins comes into the race after a much lighter campaign than 12 months ago. Fun Mac handicapped to win and could well place for third year running.

Cleonte – 6/1 @ Coral

Who Dares Wins – 12/1 @ Bet365 & Coral – each way (both paying 4 places ¼ odds)

4:40 – An apprentice race and a race I really should leave alone. However, there is an interesting runner in the Ian Williams trained Heart Of Soul, the 4-year-old is lightly raced for his age, having only had the six career starts. He has yet to break his maiden tag but was only beaten a neck in a C&D handicap last summer off 2lb lower. Yet race on soft or good to soft on turf so the going is a slight unknown. He also gets the first-time visor which could eke that a bit more improvement in the gelding. Trainer has an excellent record with his flat turf runners in the first-time visor – 12 winners from 46 runners 26% +69.53 A/E 1.61 20 placed 43%. It will be interesting to see what the market thinks of his chance today.

Heart Of Soul – 4/1 @ William Hill & Ladbrokes

5:15 – A field of 15 are set to go to post for the Chester Plate which is a consolation race for the Chester Cup.

The three I like most are Coeur De Lion, Drakensberg & Master Archer.

Drakensberg, comes over from Ireland for the race. The 5-year-old has been in good from on the all- weather at Dundalk of late, winning both his last two starts in very easy fashion.  Up 12lb in a better race and up from 1m 4f, so stamina to prove. Not sure the hike in the weights will catch him out and if handles the track and the step up to this marathon trip he won’t be far away from a good draw in stall 3. The bookies are taking no chances with his price.

Coeur De Lion, was runner-up in this race last year off the same mark as today. A bit of ease in the ground suits the 6-year-old and trainer Alan King takes 5lb off the horses back with the booking of a useful apprentice. Made a solid return to action when runner-up at Newbury and has no doubt been aimed at this race again.  Stall nine could be better and he doesn’t find winning easy, but I think he win this with clear passage.

Master Archer, has only won two of his 19 career starts but both of them have come here over 2m. He’s just 4lb higher than for the last of those wins and Cieren Fallon takes off a valuable 5lb. handicapped to go well on a track he really excels at but really soft ground would be an unknown for the 5-year-old.  

Verdict: You can never rule out Master Archer at his favourite track but Coeur De Lion can go one better than 12-months ago.

Coeur De Lion – 7/2 @ William Hill & Ladbrokes

Always check with an odds comparison service like Oddschecker to get the best prices available

All selections win only unless indicated as each way.

Cheers

John

Chester May Festival – Day 2 – May 9th 2019

Hi all,

A good start to the Chester Festival for the service with wins for the progressive Leodis Dream 9/2 & the well handicapped Gossiping 8/1 in the lucky last.  We are playing with the bookie’s money on Thursday but I’m just looking at the three races.

Chester May Festival – Day 2

1:50 – Just 11 are now set to go to post for this 5f Class 2 handicap for 4-year-old+ horses.

Just ¾ length separated Copper Knight & Camacho Chief when they were first & second in a big field handicap at York last Autumn. The former is 2lb better off at the weights today and has had the benefit of a recent run at Musselburgh 19-days ago. He also races out of stall 1. Has twice won at this meeting in the past in 2016 & 2017. Strong favourites chance!

Camacho Chief, in stall 6, was an improving sprinter last season but he’s making his seasonal reappearance here. No record fresh but could be an improver this season as 4-year-old. He also acts on the likely going – 2 wins from 4 runs 3 placed on soft.

Verdict: Camacho Chief and Copper Knight both have strongest claims here.

Camacho Chief – 9/1 @ William Hill & Bet365

Copper Knight – 11/4 @ Bet365 & William Hill

2:25 – A field of 12 are set to go to post for this 7f Class 2 handicap for 3-year-old only.

Tom Dascombe saddles four runners in Drogon, Jim Crowley an interesting jockey booking), Metatron, with Richard Kingscote doing the steering, Barristan The Bold and Lola’s Theme. The latter is 2 wins from 4 runs since switching to grass and battled on well to win a York nursery back in October, both those wins came on soft ground and although she disappointed on her final start at Newmarket. Returns to action here coming out of stall 2 and with the soft ground in her favour she can go well and maybe the pick of the Dascombe horses, if she fully wound up first time up.

Richard Fahey saddles King Of Tonga & Pacino. The former should his well being when finishing runner-up at Beverley 14-days ago. Up 6lb for that effort demands more but the gelding was placed here last season and needs respecting even out of Stall 8.

Andrew Balding who has such an excellent record with his handicappers at the meeting also saddles two in Spirit Warning (Stall 10) & Forseti (Stall 6). Given the draw the most likely of his pair looks to be Forseti. The 3-year-old returned to action from a 148-day break and a gelding operation to win on the All-Weather at Lingfield. Another 110-day break now but at least we know he goes well fresh. Won on good to firm last summer, so soft ground is an unknown.

Sparklealot, is an interesting contender even from stall 9. He won two of his six starts as a juvenile both coming on soft ground.  Returned to action when 5th of 14 at Newbury, again on soft ground.  Should be all the better for that run can’t rule out for a trainer in Ivan Furtado who has done well at Chester with a limited number of runners 3 winners from 11 runners 275 +25 in the past five years.

Verdict: Lola’s Theme will be suited by the soft ground and has a chance out of stall 2. Another who will appreciate the ease in the ground is Sparklealot who should be all the better for his Newbury reappearance.

Sparklealot – 11/1 @ William Hill & Bet365 – each way

Lola’s Theme – 8/1 @ William Hill & Bet365 – each way

5:05 – A tricky handicap to conclude today’s card.

Crownthorpe won nicely at Beverley three days ago. Has a 5lb penalty to carry for that win. In form and if the quick turnaround isn’t a negative, he must be high on the shortlist. However, he’s plenty short in enough in the betting for me.

Bobby K is 3 wins from 8 runs but all three of those wins have come on the all-weather. Ran well on his seasonal reappearance at Newcastle 10-day ago. Gets the first-time blinkers today and faces soft ground for the first time.    

Like Bobby K, Kasbaan is lightly raced for his age, just the four career starts, sole win came on the all-weather at Lingfield back in September. Wasn’t beaten far into 4th on his racecourse debut as a juvenile on soft ground. So, there are hopes regarding underfoot conditions for the gelding.

Ayutthaya, hasn’t show much on his two starts this season. But the return to soft ground could spark the 4-year-old back into life. A winner on heavy ground here as a 2-year-old over 7f. He also made all to win on good to soft at Thirsk in April 2018. Was just touched off at Hamilton off today’s mark back in August. Comes with big risks attached but stall 6 isn’t bad and he would be overpriced on the best of his form.

Verdict:  In race containing plenty of exposed handicappers. Bobby K is unexposed on the turf and if he handles the rain softened ground needs respecting, even if stall 8 could be better. It could be worth chancing that a return to softish ground could see a return to form by the Kevin Ryan trained Ayutthaya out of stall six.

Bobby K – 7/1 @ Coral & William Hill

Ayutthaya – 20/1 @ William Hill – each way (paying 4 places 1/5 odds)

Always check with an odds comparison service like Oddschecker to get the best prices available

All selections win only unless indicated as each way.

Cheers

John

Chester May Festival – Day 1 – May 8th 2019

Hi all,

Chester May Festival – Day 1

The going is good at the time of writing this, but rain is forecast. It all depends how much we get between now and the start of racing which will determine whether it’s on the easy side of good or genuinely soft.

1:50 – The 5f Lily Agnes Stakes for 2-year-olds. Top Buck was easy to back on his juvenile debut at Windsor, 9 days ago. Still he ran well to finish runners-up that day. Should improve for that experience and has a good draw in stall 2. Genuinely soft ground would be an unknown for the son of Dandy Man but it would be for most of the runners. It’s a race I probably shouldn’t really get involved in but Top Buck is a tentative each-way play at around 8/1 to go one better than last time.

Top Buck – 8/1 @ Bet365 – each way

3:00 – A tricky handicap sprint for which 11 are declared to go to post.

Leodis Dream, trained by David O’Meara, come in to the race looking for his fifth successive win and impressive form figures of 21111. Won on good to soft at Catterick back in October. However, both this seasons wins have come on good to firm at Thirsk and Sandown 12 days ago. He showed plenty of early speed last time and the handicapper has only put him up for 4lb for that win. Never seems to win by far which make life tough for the handicapper could be pattern level sprinter in the making. Stall six could be better but it could be a lot worse.

Society Queen, has to be respected. The Richard Fahey trained filly won two of her four starts as a juvenile. The latter of those win came in July when she won a York nursery on good to soft. Ran well on her first start last season so should be fit enough. Up 6lb for her last win but the useful Sean Davis takes off 5lb. Trainer among the winners and stall 4 is a good one.

The softer the ground the better for previous C&D winners Dave Dexter from the inform Ralph Beckett yard. He won’t be 14/1 should plenty of rain arrive.  Stall nine could have been better though. Tom Dascombe saddles three and the best of those could be C&D winner She Can Boogie out of stall five.

Verdict: I think Leodis Dream can continue his progression and win this,but it might also be worth chancing an each -way saver on Society Queen on her seasonal return.  Dave Dexter will be of interest if the going got very soft but stall 9 does slightly temper enthusiasm.

Leodis Dream – 9/2 @ Paddy Power

Society Queen – 9/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook – each way

3:35 – The most valuable race of the day the Group 3 Cheshire Vase. Aidan O’Brien saddles three of the eight runners. Ryan Moore has opted for Norway but soft ground would be an unknown for the colt who has the look of a St Leger contender. Get the first time cheekpieces and if he’s effective on the ground has the form to win this. His other runners are Gentile Bellini & Sir Dragonet. The latter comes in to the race after just one run which was a win at Tipperary 13-days ago. Open to improvement but drawn out wide in stall 8. The former has a good draw in stall 2. The son of Dubawi made all to win at Cork on his seasonal reappearance and in race which there doesn’t look there’s much in early pace he could get an easy lead out in front.

The more rain the better for the Charlie Fellowes trained King Ottoker. The son of Motivator really impressed when winning at Newbury. That win came on soft ground and he’s now 2 from 2 on that ground. The extra two furlongs will suit that’s for sure. If he handles the track and the rain arrives, he would probably go off favourite.

Dashing Willoughby & Kaloor were second & third behind the Fellowes horse at Newbury. The former is another who will appreciate the rain. Whilst the latter was an eyecatcher for from that race. The step up to 1m 4f should really suit Kaloor who is a colt with plenty of improvement to come on his just his third career start. Each way claims here but I think he would prefer a sounder surface than seems likely.

Verdict: The rain will have a big bearing on the result of this race. The more rain the better for King Ottoker but how will he handle the twists and turns of Chester? He’s a horse i do like a lot. Norway is the class horse of the race, but soft ground is an unknown for the colt. Kaloor will be suited by the step up to 1m 4f but the suspicion is he might be better on a sounder surface. Norway’s stablemate Gentile Bellini made all to win at Cork on his seasonal reappearance and could get the race run to suit again.

Kaloor -18/1 @ Bet365 & Paddy Power – each way

4:35 – Wild Edric, trained by Tom Dascombe, has a big chance out of stall 3. The 3-year-old made all to win a soft C&D nursery back in September off 2lb lower. He wasn’t disgraced when 4th of 11 at Pontefract on good to firm on his recent seasonal reappearance. Slight concern that he won’t get an uncontested. But any rain likely enhances his already strong claims.

Andrew Balding has an excellent record in handicaps at this meeting. In the past five seasons he’s had 7 winners from 18 runners 39% +38.58 A/E 2.9 11 placed 62%. I’m backing his handicap runners blind this week. He saddles Pass The Gin whose sole 2-year-old win from six starts came here over C&D back in July (good). She wasn’t disgraced when 4th of 10 back here in a 7f nursery in September. That was on soft ground and he seemed to handle the ground well enough. Made a pleasing return to action when 3rd behind Leodis Dream over 5f at Sandown 12-days ago. Up 3lb for that good effort but today’s extra furlong will be more in her favour. Stall nine could be a lot better though and the trainer’s not in the hot form he was two weeks ago.

Pass The Gin – 13/2 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook

5:05 – Another 7f handicap this time for four-year-old + horses. There’s been early support for Gossiping whose early price has halved. The 7-year-old seemed to bounce back to life when winning at Kempton 42-days ago off a much lower AW mark. Returns to the scene of his best run of 2018 when runner-up in the Class 2 handicap over C&D 12 months ago. He’s 8lb lower in Class 4 race and to well handicapped to ignore even from stall 9.

Gin In The Inn has been running mostly over 6f but the 6-year-old was only beaten a short head in this race two years ago on his last go at the trip. He had won first time up in his last seasons but looked in need of the run when 5th of 15 at Ripon 11-days ago, a race he had won last year. Handicapped to go well with Sean Davis taking off a further 5lb.  Big chance out of stall 3 for trainer Richard Fahey. Like Gossiping has been well found in the early bird market for the race.

Verdict: The market hasn’t missed the chances of Gossiping and Gin In The Inn. I wouldn’t normally be happy with former’s draw over this distance but he’s to temptingly handicapped to ignore. He and Gin In The Inn will do for me.

Gossiping – 4/1 @ William Hill & Ladbrokes

Gin In The Inn – 5/1 @ William Hill & Bet365

Always check with an odds comparison service like Oddschecker to get the best prices available

All selections win only unless indicated as each way.

Cheers

John

Tough Week Ends With Profitable Weekend

Hi all,

A challenging week on the betting front. Punchestown was a disaster, that’s for sure. I will have to have re-think on how I approach that meeting next year.

On the positive side: Magna Grecia’s win in the 2,000 Guineas was followed by Hermosa’s win in the 1,000 Guineas on Sunday. Hopefully most of you got on at the 20/1 advised price. Maybe some of you went really bold and took the 25/1 on offer with Bet365. Either way it ended up a profitable weekend, combined with Baghdad’s 5/2 success in the first at Newmarket.

There’s plenty look forward to this week on the racing front with Chester’s May Festival starting on Wednesday. My next selections for the service will be at that meeting.

See you all in a few days.

Cheers

John

Newmarket 1,000 Guineas Day – May 5th 2019

Hi all,

Even having tipped the 2,000 Guineas winner Magna Grecia, can’t take away from the fact that the Punchestown Festival has been a punting disaster.

Well at least it’s the flat all the way now and I can forget about the hedgehoppers for a while although no doubt I will be suckered in by next Saturday’s mixed meeting at Haydock.

Well the ladies take centre stage on Sunday with the Qipco 1,000 Guineas the feature race in Europe.

The field sizes at Newmarket are a shade disappointing although a field of 15 are set to go to post for the first fillies’ classic which looks an open a race as yesterday’s 2,000 Guineas.

Al today’s selections come from Newmarket and there’s also a recent eyecatcher running ate meeting although he’s odds on.

Newmarket

1:50 – A 1m 4f Class 2 handicap for which a field of ten have been declared to go to post.

Baghdad returned to action when 3rd at Newcastle 16-days ago. That was the 4-year-old’s first run since winning the King George V Handicap at Royal Ascot off 8lb lower. The handicapper has put him up 2lb for his Newcastle effort. It was a nice start to the season, and he has a good chance of winning this. Trainer Mark Johnston also saddles Hochfield and Fire Fighting but Baghdad looks the stables first choice and is surely set for a good season.

Shailene, was three places and 2 ¼ lengths behind Baghdad in the Newcastle race on his handicap debut and her first start since September.  It an encouraging reappearance but she maybe needs further than 1m 4f to win in this company.

Corelli, trained by John Gosden, has won three of his five career starts. The 4-year-old has been gelded over the winter and remains open to improvement.

Deja, trained by Peter Chapple-Hyam comes into the race looking for the four timer after wins at Wolverhampton, Chester & Pontefract back in October. That was just a Class 4 contest so he’s up in class here and up 9lb for his Pontefract win.  Lightly raced and a potential improver this season but the ground will likely be faster than it was at Chester & Pontefract.

Melting Dew, represents Sir Michael Stoute whose made a great start to the season.  The 5-year-old improved with each of his first four starts last season culminating in a ½ length second at Goodwood in August over 1m 6f. The gelding was well beaten at York on his final start last August back down to 1m 4f. I doubt it was the drop-in distance that led to his disappointing run there. Maybe he just didn’t like York. Many horses just don’t like the Knavesmire.

Spirit Ridge is another lightly raced 4-year-old. The son of Nathanial has just had the four starts making his racecourse debut only in June. A winner of a Catterick novice on his second start he ended last season by making all to win on his handicap debut at Leicester. He showed a good battling attitude to hold his rivals that day and looked the sort to do well in his second season. Interesting that his powerful owner has kept the gelding rather than selling him last autumn.  Connections think he can progress over further than 1m 4f as the season progresses. Despite being 7lb higher than for his last win and may need further he still needs respecting for a trainer whose 3 winners from 7 runners in 1m 4f handicaps at the track since 2013 and won this corresponding race in 2015.

Verdict: Baghdad looks set for another good season and can win this. Potential improver Spirit Ridge looks the biggest danger to the Johnston horse but faces potential competition for the lead.

Selection: Baghdad – 5/2 @ Bet365 & William Hill

2:55 – A 6f Class 2 handicap for which just 11 are declared to go to post.

Gifted Master, trained by Hugo Palmer, won this race last year and bids for the double off the same mark and later won the Goodwood Stewards Cup off 2lb higher. He was never able to get to the front to dominate in a Group 3 at the Craven Meeting 18-days ago. The 6-year-old will be better back in handicap company and if he gets an uncontested lead, which looking at pace maps he could, then he will be hard to pass.

Gunmetal, was an improving handicap sprinter for David Barron last season. He’s 1 win from 3 runs 2 placed here and has also won twice on the July course. Well suited by good or quicker he could rival Gifted Master for the lead. Made all to win the Great St Wilfird Handicap at Ripon last August. Up 7lb for his last win so needs to improve again which is possible.

On the Warpath, won over 7f at Meydan two starts back and beat all bar stable mate Mubtasim over that distance. The 4-year-old remains progressive and looks interesting dropped back to 6f.

Victory Angel, was 4th in this race last year, beaten a length by Gifted Master. Now with Robert Cowell he can race off a 6lb lower mark. First run for his new trainer but he did win first time up over C&D in 2017. All three of his wins have come on good to firm so the 5-year-old ticks the boxes marked course, distance and going and must enter calculations.

Flavius Titus & Summerghand, were first and second in a C&D handicap 19-days ago. The former is up 4lb for his neck win and the latter is up 3lb.

The winner was having his first start for 193-days and only his third start over 6f and he remains unexposed over sprint distances. Given he made his run more towards the centre of the track his effort could be worth a bit more than the official margin of his victory suggests.

Summerghand, was well backed to make a winning return to action that day but didn’t get a clear run on the rails when making his effort. Once in the clear he was finishing best of all and might well have won with a better run. At the revised weights there shouldn’t be much between the pair again.

Verdict: Flavius Titus could have more to offer over sprint distances this season. Victory Angel who was 4th in this race has his first start for Robert Cowell and is weighted to beat last years winner Gifted Master.

Selections: Flavius Titus – 11/2 @ Ladbrokes & Coral and Victory Angel – 8/1 @ William Hill & Ladbrokes

3:35 – Qipco 1,000 Guineas – Four of the last eleven winners of the 1,000 Guineas have been sent off between 16/1 & 66/1 so a big priced winner can often pop up as it did last year.

Qabala, trained by Roger Varian stormed home to win the Nell Gwyn Stakes at the track. You must go back to 2006 to find the last filly to do the Nell Gwyn/1000 Guineas Double but this daughter of Scat Daddy could well do it. The extra furlong of the first fillies’ classic can bring out further improvement and we know she handles the track and quick ground. She looks the pick of the British trained runners.

Leopardstown’s 1000 Guineas Trial was a triumph for the Shelia Lavery trained Lady Kaya. She takes her place here and isn’t without chance if she stays the mile. Third home in that race was Iridessa who won last years Fillies Mile over C&D. She will be fitter for today with that run under her belt and we know she will be better back at a mile.

Skitter Scatter, like Qabala, is a daughter of Scat Daddy, she won four times as a juvenile. She improved on her last three starts ending her season with a win the Group 1 Moyglare Stakes at the Curragh outstaying Lady Kaya to win by two lengths with Hermosa a further 1 ½ lengths back in third.

Aiden O’Brien has produced 3 winners from 24 runners 10 placed in the past 11-years of 1,000 Guineas. He saddles four this year. Just Wonderful, Fairyland, Hermosa & Fleeting.  He doesn’t have the stranglehold over the race that he does over the colt’s classic, but his runners always need noting.

Just Wonderful is the shortest priced of his four runners and the choice of Ryan Moore. The mile should really suit the filly who showed a decent turn of foot to beat Dandhu in the Rockefel Stakes at the track last September. Disappointed when only 4th at the Breeders Cup but the rain softened ground didn’t suit her that day and she will be better back on a sound surface.

Fairyland, won four of her five starts last season including the 6f Group 1 Cheveley Park Stakes at Newmarket last September. She arguably has the best juvenile form on offer. The only doubt regarding her chance is the daughter of Kodiac’s ability to get the mile of the 1000 Guineas. There are mixed messages on pedigree, but Franke Dettori has been booked for the ride and I think she can go well. At said in my Monday Punt column that the 12/1 available about her was worth chancing despite doubts about her stamina for a mile and that remains the case.

Hermosa & Fleeting both have each way claims although maybe more Oak’s than Guineas contenders on pedigree. The latter won the May Hill Stakes at Doncaster last September. No problems with stamina for her but she will be suited by further and probably doesn’t have the class to win a race like this over a mile.  Hermosa, a daughter of Galileo had seven starts as a juvenile winning two of them, including a Group 3 at Naas. Besides finishing third to Skitter Scatter in the Moyglare she also was beaten just 1 ½ lengths into second by Iridessa in the fillies mile, a race she was sent off the 5/2 favourite for. Ended last season with a close second in the Group 1 Criterium International at Chantilly, against the colts. As a 2-year-old she always shaped like she would be better as a 3-year-old and her full sister did better at three winning Group 1’s at a mile and 1m 4f.

Verdict: In an open race I’m happy to chance Fairyland. Whilst stablemate Hermosa looks worth an each-way play at bigger odds.

Selections: Fairyland – 12/1 @ Paddy Power & BetVictor and Hermosa – 20/1 @ William Hill – each way – (Paying 4 places 1/5 odds) – Bet365 are 25/1 paying 3 places)

Eyecatcher Running:

We have one recent eyecatcher running at Newmarket this afternoon.

Newmarket

4:10 – Electrical Storm – 8/11 @ William Hill & Paddy Power – The son of Dubawi can put his recent experience to good use and it will take a good newcomer to beat him. Not surprisingly he’s a very short priced favourite to do it.

Always check with an odds comparison service like Oddschecker to get the best prices available

All selections win only unless indicated as each way.

Cheers

John

VV’s Weekly Notebook – May 2nd 2019

Hi all,

I’m writing this in the middle of the Punchestown Festival which hasn’t gone well from a betting perspective certainly on the first two-days anyway.

Plenty of great racing to look forward to over the next few days with Newmarket’s Guineas Meeting being the main highlight.

I slightly different look to this week’s notebook. But the emphasis for the time being remains looking at the better class meetings. In all truth I’m still finding it hard to go through some many fixtures which of course this time in the season we start to see.

Last Week’s Racing Review & Horses To Follow

In this week’s notebook which is longer than normal. I will be covering last Wednesday’s Epsom meeting. Sandown’s Friday fixture and the Saturday’s flat action.

Epsom

Wednesday 24th April

Epsom’s first meeting of the new season features a couple of decent handicaps and the Investec Blue Riband Trial over 1m 2f. This listed race now has a win and you’re in status for the Derby.

Since the race was given its Listed status It been won by Cracksman in 2017 who went onto finish 3rd in the Derby and last year Dee Ex Bee who finished third in the race went onto finish runner-up in the Derby. 

It’s a race that will probably become more of Classic Trial for the Derby over the next few years as it’s good opportunity to test out a colt’s aptitude for the tracks famous undulations.

O’Brien’s Derby Good Hope

This year’s race was won by the Aiden O’Brien trained Cape Of Good Hope. The colt is a full brother to Highland Reel and Idaho so won’t have any problems with the 1m 4f distance of the Derby and certainly didn’t seem to have any issues with the track.

He’s a best priced 20/1 for next month’s big race which reflects his chance.

The second home was the Ed Walker trained Cap Francois. The colt isn’t entered in the Derby. Twice a winner last season from three starts. This was a satisfactory return to action from the son of Frankel. He didn’t handle the track as well as the winner and got a bit worked up before the start. He was staying on well enough at the finish to get within ½ length of the winner. An extra couple of furlongs won’t go amiss and he’s capable of winning races on the evidence of this performance.

The Great Metropolitan Handicap doesn’t have the status it once had and indeed is just a Class 3 handicap these days.

Knight Handicapper Sizzles To Win

Previous Kempton Eyecatcher Soto Sizzler looked well before the race and was well backed into favouritism (11/4) to win the race.  He didn’t give his supporters to many anxious moments and came home the rather comfortable winner by 3 ¼ lengths at the line.

The gelding was doing his best work at the finish and can find improvement for a further step up in trip. After the race his trainer was talking about going for a valuable 1m 6f handicap at Glorious Goodwood, a track he won at last year. There was even talk about the Ebor Handicap although he will need to rise in the handicap a fair bit more to get into that race.

The handicapper has raised him 6lb for this win and he looks worth keeping in the tracker for the summer months as he clearly enjoys a sound surface.

Angel Makes Winning Return

The big handicap of the day was the Class 2 Investec City And Suburban Handicap over 1m 2f. The race was won by Mountain Angel, trained by Roger Varian. The 5-year-old had no problems with the Epsom undulations and was strong at the finish. Proving in the process that he does stays further than a mile.

His late stablemate Ajman King took last years renewal of the race before going onto to win a valuable handicap back at the Oaks Meeting. It looks like he will be returning for that race at the next meeting here. There was also talk of the John Smiths Cup at York, as a possible target for the gelding later in the summer.

Very consistent last year in handicaps, only out of the first three once in six starts, his best form had come with a bit more ease in the ground than he faced here.

The handicapper has raised him 5lb for this win but whose to say his improvement over this sort of distance has ended? If he can build on this performance. He remains a horse worth keeping onside, for now, starting with a return here next month.

The race also provided the first of this week’s eyecatchers in Mildenberger.

Epsom Eyecatcher

Mildenberger, trained by Mark Johnston, hadn’t been seen on the track since finishing runner-up to Roaring Lion in last season’s Dante Stakes.  

After his Dante run, he was considered a Derby outsider and possible St Leger candidate by his trainer. Unfortunately, he fractured his knee and couldn’t race again last season.

He looked a well handicapped horse dropping back into handicap company off a mark of 107 and not surprisingly he was sent off the 100/30 favourite at the off. Looking well in the paddock before the race. Everything that could go wrong in the race did so. He slipped after leaving the stalls and found himself at the back of the field. He also didn’t handle the downhill part of the track at all. At one point in the straight he looked like he would finish well beaten but his stamina started to kick in the final two furlongs, and he was staying on well all the way to the line to finish a 6 ¼ length 7th of 11. Which seemed unlikely two furlongs from home.

It was a pleasing return to action by the 4-year-old who needs 1m 4f and maybe further to be seen at his best. A return to a more conventional track will also see the colt in a better light.

He’s got an entry in Saturday’s Group 2 Jockey Club Stakes at Newmarket, over 1m 4f. It’s a course he won the Fielden Stakes at last year.  This is a step back up in class from Epsom but he shouldn’t be underestimated!

Sandown

Friday 26th April

There was also some good racing at Sandown on Friday with the Group 2 bet365 Mile the feature race and two Group 3’s the Gordon Richards Stakes and the bet365 Classic Trial for the 3-year-olds. There were also several 3-year-old only handicaps which should produce plenty of future winners.

The bet365 Mile was another Group 2 success for Beat the Bank whose now 4 wins from 4 starts in the class. He’s yet to win in five starts in Group 1 company and has yet to even place.  Two furlongs out things didn’t look good for the 5-year-old but not for the first time he dug in well and battled on to hold Sharja Bridge by ½ length.

The smaller the field the better he seems to be having won 7 of his 8 starts in field sizes eight or less. Not for the first time he shaped here like would be worth a go at 1m 2f. Maybe the step up in trip will enable the gelding to get that elusive Group 1 success or maybe he’s just a shade short of that level.

Regal Reality, trained by Sir Michael Stoute, won a Group 3 at Goodwood last season. He wasn’t the best away but stayed on well to finish just 1 ½ lengths back in third. Of the first three home he may have needed the run the most. The colt looks the sort to better as a 4-year-old. He’s only had the six career starts and is another who could well step up in distance in the coming weeks.

Crystal Ocean won the Gordon Richards Stakes for the second season running.  The 5-year-old was much more impressive than he had been 12-months earlier. This was partly due to trainer Sir Michael Stoute having his horses well forward this season and the sounder surface he ran on this time around.

Henry Dunlop’s Knight To Behold was expected to go well and ran well on his seasonal return to finish runner-up but was no match for the winner at the finish.  Extra Elusive ran well into 3rd for Roger Charlton and needs to return to 1m 4f. Fabricate who was just touched by Crystal Ocean last year but was well back in 4th on this occasion.

The winner is 0 wins from 3 runs in Group 1 races but he has finished runner-up in all three of those starts. The Group 1 Prince Of Wales Stakes at Royal Ascot looks a likely target for the colt and may be his best chance of landing his first Group 1 success.

Bangkok, who had impressed when winning a Doncaster maiden at the Lincoln Meeting. His improvement continued here in winning this Derby Trial. Once taking the lead a furlong out it never looked like he would be beaten. I liked the away he stuck his neck out at the finish, but the son of Australia needs to find plenty more improvement if he’s to win a Derby.

Alfaatik, a winner of a Chelmsford novice race 127-day on his racecourse debut, was thrown into the deep end here. The son of Sea The Stars was racing in the first time blinkers. They didn’t seem to have the desired effect on the colt as he was slow away and then found himself well behind the other five runners. He’s still very inexperienced but he did start to make some good headway a furlong out when the penny finally dropped.

Not sure he’s deserving of going into your trackers, but he certainly looks to have plenty of talent and improvement in him although he might also turn out to be a tricky customer.

Sandown Eyecatchers

There are two main eyecatchers from the Sandown card and a filly who could well be an Oaks contender.

Sea Of Faith, trained by William Haggas, will have gone into plenty of trackers after her fourth placed effort in the 1m 2f fillies’ novice stakes.

The race looks like form that will be worth following as the first four home pulled well clear of the rest at the finish.

The winner Sparkle Roll was giving 7lb to the field on account of her win at Haydock last September. The daughter of Kingman is an imposing filly who has clearly trained on from two to three. She was well on top at the finish to win by two lengths.

A half sister to Derby winner Wings Of Eagles the Oaks looks a potential target for which she’s now a 16/1 shot but she will almost certainly head for the Musidora beforehand.  I doubt she would want the ground any faster than she got on Friday. Still she’s worth keeping onside.

Sea Of Faith, a daughter of Sea The Stars and half sister to useful stayer Raheen House lacked the experience of the winner. This was her racecourse debut and was green in the early stages of the race. Coming from behind she made nice headway inside the final two furlongs. Doing her best work at the finish she was eventually beaten less than three lengths. 

There’s plenty of improvement to come from the filly as the season progresses and she step up to 1m 4f. She looks a similar sort to connections Sea Of Class. So, it’s possible that she could head to the Newbury Listed race won by her stablemate last season.

Zuba, trained by Amanda Perrett. Not a trainer I find easy to read. However, I was taken with his third placed effort behind the useful Private Secretary in the 1m 2f handicap.

A winner on his third start at Chelmsford over 1m 2f last September. He looked the sort that day to do well in 1m 2f + handicaps as a 3-year-old.

Making his handicap debut off what looked a fair mark of 75. He looked in need of the run before the race but still ran well enough to get within 4 ½ lengths of the winner who could turn out to be a useful handicapper this year. He should improve for this run and looks capable of winning a handicap or two in the coming months.

Saturday Eyecatchers

Saturday 27th April

I have four eyecatchers from Saturday’s cards at Ripon, Haydock and Doncaster.

Ripon

Staxton, trained by Tim Easterby, the 4-year-old was making his seasonal reappearance in the 6f Class 2 handicap. He was always up with the pace on the stand side and ran well for a long way. Only headed inside the final furlong he eventually finished 3rd.

The 4-year-old was having his first start since October and like plenty from his stable will come on for the run. When last season in action he was a 3 ¾ length, 6th of 17 at York off 2lb higher He’s gone well at York in the past and will no doubt turn up for a sprint handicap there over the coming months. Looks capable of winning a decent pot or two as a 4-year-old.

Haydock

By the time of the 1m Class 2 handicap the going had changed to soft. Still there were two horse’s who look worth putting in the trackers for different reasons.

Just Hiss, trained by Tim Easterby. The 6-year-old was making his seasonal reappearance after a 180-day layoff. He was able to get out and adopt his usual front running tactics and was in front until the two-furlong mark. Once headed he didn’t weaken out of contention but stayed on finish 3rd of 11.

He was entitled to need the run as he doesn’t have a great record after a 120+ day break. Indeed, all four of his career wins from 12 starts have come when racing between 8 to 15 days since his last run. His prominent style of running is well suited to York and his record there is 2 wins from 6 runs 3 placed.  An Official Rating of 90 won’t be easy to defy and his record when rated 87+ is 0 wins from 19 runs 7 placed 37%. However, he has finished within a length of the winner at Haydock & York off marks of 89 & 91. So, although he may need to drop a couple of lbs to win if he gets his conditions a win can’t be ruled out even off his lofty mark.

This was a very encouraging return to action from the gelding who can win another handicap this year when he can get out in front and boss a race. 

Ledham, trained by Sir Michael Stoute. Hadn’t raced on going as soft as this in his six-race career. Returning from a 193-day break he was held-up he made some notable headway three furlongs from home and although it never looked like he would catch the eventual winner Mordin inside the final furlong he ran well to take second, beaten 2 ½ lengths.

A combination of the soft ground and the lack of a recent run probably made the difference here. Still this was a nice return to action by the son of Shamardal who improved with racing as a 3-year-old. Just the type of horse his trainer does well with. When he races back on a sounder surface, he can continue last seasons improvement. Yet to win on his four starts on turf, both his career wins have come on the all-weather, but surely, it’s only matter of time before he gets his first win on grass.

His full brother stayed 1m 2f so a step up in trip may well be worth trying. Handicapper has only raised the colt a 1lb for this effort and his mark of 90 will surely be defied in the coming weeks. Indeed, he could well end the season running in pattern company.

Doncaster

Autumn War, trained by Charlie Hills,a winner of two of his four starts last season at Nottingham & Goodwood. The 4-year-old was unsuited by the moderate early gallop on his handicap debut back in September.

This was the colts first run for 212-days and the bigger field and stronger overall gallop suited the son of Declaration of War much better. Held up at the back of the field he made good progress three furlongs from home and was doing all his best work at the finish of this 1m 2f handicap to eventually finish a 3 ¾ length 4th of 14.

Lightly raced for his age he could well get further but he does need a decent gallop to allow him to settle in his races. He will be all the better for his return to action and is open to further progress as a 4-year-old. There are races to be won off his current mark.

Cheers

John

Weekend Betting Preview – Part 1 – May 4th 2019

Hi all,

At last a couple of winner’s courtesy of Abel Handy & Longhouse Poet. They don’t make up for what’s been a poor week so far, but a profitable day is always welcomed.

Well it’s the final day of the Punchestown Festival and the start of Guineas Weekend at Newmarket with the highlight of a cracking card being the Qipco 2,000 Guineas.

Apologies in advance, today’s betting preview is shorter than normal. As I have been feeling fairly fatigued today.  I have selections from Punchestown and Newmarket for you today. As well as a couple of eyecatchers running at Goodwood & Thirsk. All on what looks a big weekend’s betting.

Newmarket

1:50 – A 1m 1f handicap over the Cambridgeshire distance. Al Muffrih head the betting at 7/2. Trained by William Haggas. He was highly regarded as three-year-old winning a Newbury maiden over 1m 2f on his seasonal reappearance. Before disappointing at Sandown back in June. First start for 331-days but did win first time up last year. Has been gelded over the winter and makes his handicap debut here. Could be nicely handicapped off 91.

Power of Darkness, trained by Marcus Tregoning, won two of his four starts last season, both at Salisbury on good to firm ground. Returned to action over a mile here 16-days ago. He was finishing his race of well that day and was only beaten a head into second. Up 2lb for that performance should be fine over the extra furlong. Can win races off his present mark.

Al Muffrih – 7/2 @ William Hill & Paddy Power

2:55 – If you have had a chance to look at this week’s weekly notebook you will have seen that I have put Mildenberger up as one of last week’s tracker performance at Epsom. The 4-year-old was doing his best work at the finish over 1m 2f and should be well suited by the extra two furlongs he races here. The return to a more conventional track, won the Fielden Stakes here last year, before running finishing runner-up to Roaring Lion in the Dante, will also suit the 4-year-old he didn’t seem to handle the Epsom undulations to well. Granted this is a tough ask as it’s a Group 2 contest and last week’s race was a Class 2 handicap. But I don’t think he will be disgraced here. It’s just a shame we have just the seven going to post.

Mildenberger – 8/1 @ William Hill & Ladbrokes

3:35 – The Qipco 2,000 Guineas – Fancied horses have been dropping like flies in the run-up to the race. In my Monday Daily Punt column, I noted that Aidan O’Brien could have the key to the first colts classic and he saddles Ten Sovereigns & Magna Grecia. In the end Ryan Moore has opted for the former and as expected the latter has drifted out to second favourite. If there is to be a superstar among the field, it’s probably going to be Ten Sovereigns. But will he stay? Magna Grecia gets the mile well and has been trained for this race since he won the Vertem Futurity at Doncaster last October. I wouldn’t put anyone of Madhmoon who looks a solid each-way contender. The openness of the race has tempted Godolphin to supplement the Charlie Appleby trained Al Hilalee. The son of Dubawi won both his two starts as juvenile. He was being trained for a tilt at the Derby.

Verdict: Al Hilalee is open to plenty of improvement and shouldn’t be underestimated. He should be staying on nicely at the finish. At around 16/1 he must merit some interest at an each- way price although my first choice is the solid Magna Grecia.

Magna Grecia -5/1 @ Ladbrokes & William Hill

Al Hilalee -16/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes (both paying 4 places 1/5 odds)

5:20 – Richard Hannon saddles three contenders in this Class 2 handicap in Mordred, Leroy Leroy and Brian Epstein and it’s the latter that is my preference. He improved with each of his three starts as a juvenile and ended his season by winning over a mile at Kempton back in October. The colt made a pleasing return to action when 5th of 14 over C&D at the Craven Meeting 17-days ago. He’s a strong scopey 3-year-old whose open to further improvement and can surely win a race off his present mark of 84.

Brian Epstein – 11/2 @ William Hill & Ladbrokes

Punchestown

I’m concentrating on the three competitive looking big field handicaps on the final day of the Punchestown Festival.

3:10 – Plenty of the 18 runners in this 3m 7f handicap chase have questions to answer, including my selection Some Neck.

Some Neck won a small field Grade 2 here over 2m 6 ½ f back in November. He was then sent off just 15/2 second favourite for the valuable Thyestes Handicap Chase on his next start but fell at the 8th. He was then sent off the 9/2 favourite for the Boylesports Grand National Trial but could only finish 6th of 16. Given his strength in the market for those better races he must be given a good chance. Will the 8-year-old stay the distance and is better suited to smaller fields? We’ll find out the answers to those questions this afternoon.

Some Neck – 7/1 – Gen

5:00 – A field of 11 are declared to go to post for this 3m ½ f handicap chase. The two that I like most are Acting Lass and Walk To Freedom.

Acting Lass, returns from a 434-day absence. The 8-year-old looked a useful handicapper chaser in the making, having won three of his four starts over fences all going right handed. He’s won after a 365-day break in the past so should be fine fitness wise. Slightly softer ground may be preferable, but he returns off what looks a winnable mark, just 1lb higher than for his last win and trainer Harry Fry has already had a winner at the meeting this week.

Walk To Freedom, has no fitness questions to answer, as the 9-year-old put in a great effort to finish 3rd at Fairyhouse on his return to fences 12 -days ago. Better known for his exploits over hurdles but he can race off a 6lb lower mark over fences. He goes well at Punchestown 1 win from 3 runs 2 placed and should go close here.

Walk To Freedom – 7/2 @ William Hill & Ladbrokes

Acting Lass – 4/1 @ William Hill & Bet365

5:35 – A 2m 4f handicap hurdle for which a field of 25 are set to go to post. This is the trickiest of the three handicaps on the card. My three against the field are:

Canardier, was 5th of 25 in the Coral Cup at Cheltenham before finishing 3rd in another big field handicap hurdle at Aintree 29-days ago. He handled the soft ground in both races well enough but he’s an even better horse in a sounder surface which he should get today. If those runs haven’t taken the edge of this consistent 7-year-old, he will go close.

Out Of The Loop, was in winning form when last seen in action 434-day ago. The 6-year-old is looking for the hat trick today but is 11lb higher in the weights than for his last win at Fairyhouse. Lightly raced this will only be his 7th career starts and remains open to further progress. Best form has come on soft ground but a sounder surface shouldn’t be too much of an issue.

Spades Are Trumps. like Out of The Loop is owned by J P McManus. He returned from a 316-day lay off to finish 6th of 19 at Naas two starts back. Built on that sold return to action when 2nd of 14 at Fairyhouse 12-days ago. Although the 6-year-old is dropping back in trip 2f, he’s on the same mark as last time and can go close again. Trainer Gavin Cromwell could do with a winner as he’s 0 winners from 37 runners in the past 14-day. Despite that negative stat I expect him to be competitive again at track he won his maiden hurdle at back in 2017.

Canardier – 9/1 @ Paddy Power

Out Of The Loop – 11/1 – Gen

Spades Are Trumps – 16/1 @ Coral – each way (paying 5 places 1/5 odds)

Eyecatchers Running:

There are two recent eyecatchers running today:

Goodwood

2:40 – Whitefountainfairy – 9/1 @ William Hill – The 4-year-old caught the eye when 4th on her seasonal reappearance at Kempton two starts back. She also posted tow of her best turf efforts over C&D. First, when runner-up in a Group 3 as a juvenile to a future 1,000 Guineas winners and then when 7th of 17 in a handicap last August. On the latter occasion she was beaten just 5 ¾ lengths despite not getting the clearest of runs twice in the final two furlongs. Racing off a 5lb lower mark now she’s the type to need all the cards to fall right but when they do, she handicapped to win.

Thirsk

4:15 – Fennaan – 16/1 @Bet365 (paying 4 places ¼ odds) – Went into the tracker after his first start at Musselburgh, for new trainer Philip Makin, 32-days ago. Wasn’t well drawn that day but did well to finish as close as he did at the finish.  First run at a mile today in this competitive handicap but once again hasn’t got a great draw in stall 14. He’s handicapped to win again off his present mark that’s for sure, but will it be today? Personally, I think 7f will be his optimum but he still has each way claims.

Always check with an odds comparison service like Oddschecker to get the best prices available

All selections win only unless indicated as each way.

Cheers

John