Author: John Burke

Hi all,

Camacho Chief ensured we ended the weekend with a solid profit.  It was almost a ‘super’ Sunday as Commes was beaten a head in the French Oaks.

At least I’m heading into Royal Ascot in form.  There is one recent eyecatcher running today at Windsor.

Selections & race analysis for Day one of Royal Ascot will be with you this evening.

Windsor

7:40 – Dominus  – 7/2 – Gen – Was sent off the 7/4 favourite for a 6f handicap at Ripon 12-days ago but the 3-year-old races was over before it started when he stumbled and unseated his jockey when leaving the stalls. Softest ground he’s faces so far in his short career but can go close if he handles it.

Cheers

John

Hi all,

Another profitable day to advised prices. Which could have been even better if I had put up Recon Mission who I said could outrun his odds at York.

Sunday’s racing looks to have a pre-Royal Ascot feel about it and with the going soft at Doncaster & Salisbury, I can happily leave alone.  Over the English Channel it’s Prix de Diane or French Oaks at Chantilly and I have selection for the French fillies middle distance classic.

Doncaster

3:55 – Recent eyecatcher Camacho Chief runs here. The 4-year-old has the soft ground in his favour and will also be suited by the drop back to 5f. I will be disappointed if he can’t take advantage of conditions today.

Camacho Chief – 9/4 – Gen

Chantilly

3:05 – The hot favourite is HH the Aga Khan’s Siyarafina who made it three from three when winning a Group at Longchamp 21-days ago. She’s the one they all must beat on form, but the draw hasn’t been kind to her as she drawn out widest in 16. It will take a very good Christophe Soumillon ride to overcome it.

Commes was runner-up to the favourite on her seasonal reappearance and has since gone onto finish a nose second in the French 1,000 Guineas. On pedigree she should be an even better filly over 1m 2 ½ f and trainer Jean-Claude Rouget has won the race four times in the last ten years. Looks to have a solid each way chance on ground that should suit her.

Commes – each way

Cheers

John

Hi all,

Archi did us proud at York. He finished second at odds 14/1 but was arguably he unlucky not to have gone one better. Perfect Tapatino’s win at Cork on Friday evening meant it was profitable day.

On to Saturday’s action and I have selections from York, Sandown & Chester and it’s at the latter track where I start Saturday’s betting preview.

CHESTER

2:40 – Durston impressed when winning at Doncaster on his handicap debut. The handicapper has only put the 3-year-old up 3lb which seems fair to me. The going at Doncaster was good to firm so underfoot conditions will be totally different today, but he does have placed form on good to soft and his half sister Cubanita won in the mud. Of more concern would be his draw in 8. Prefontaine, trained by Roger Varian, gets the first time cheekpieces and is better drawn in stall 4. He’s more exposed than some of the field but should appreciate the drop back to an extended 1m 4 ½ f. Bath eyecatcher Fearless Warrior disappointed at Leicester 26-days ago. He’s surely better than that run, and the trainer’s horses are in better form now. Still the colt needs to find improvement for his first visit to Chester.

Verdict: A tricky little puzzle. Eyecatcher Fearless Warrior needs to bounce back from a poor Leicester run. Prefontaine should be fine with drop back in trip and the cheekpieces could eke out that bit of improvement he needs to win this. If it wasn’t for his wide draw Durston would be a confident pick.

Durston – 9/2 @ William Hill & Bet365

SANDOWN

2:35 – Fantasy Keeper’s claims are obvious he likes soft ground but at odds of 2/1 I can happily let him win. At a bigger price it might be worth chancing Bahamian Sunrise. Granted the 7-year-old has hardly beaten a rival on his four starts this season. But that means he’s tumbled down the weights and is a well handicapped horse if he was to bounce back to form. He’s won on soft ground and the blinkers return. The 7-year-old record over C&D is an eyecatching 2 wins from 4 runs 4 placed. From stall 2 he looks overpriced at 20/1.

Bahamian Sunrise – 14/1 @ Bet365 & William Hill – each way

3:15 – A competitive 12 runner handicap. Eyecatcher History Writer gets on final chance to get his head in front. Didn’t seem to handle the track at Epsom last time and is better judged on close-up third over C&D two starts back. Handles soft ground and his record over C&D is 1 win from 2 starts 2 placed. Trainer David Menuisier is 4 winners from 8 runners 50% +33.70 in the past 14-days. Sawwaah, trained by Owen Burrows, finished a place and a neck ahead of History Writer on soft ground at Newmarket last November. There shouldn’t be much between the pair again but Sawwaah does get the first time cheekpieces and was an encouraging third to Beringer at Newmarket 58-days ago.

History Writer – 8/1 @ Bet365 & William Hill

Sawwaah – 11/2 @ William Hill & Ladbrokes

YORK

2:25 – This looks the hardest puzzle of the day. Two eyecatchers run here Aljady & Saxton. I didn’t except to see either horse run over 7f when I put them in the tracker. Aljady should be fine over the extra furlong and he’s got winning form on soft. Saxton I’m not sure about. In his favour is the rain softened ground and he’s dropping down to winning mark when he does find his form again. Trainer also saddles Hyperfocus who looks a strong contender. Kaeso needs to win this to get into next weeks Royal Hunt Cup. He followed up his excellent third in the Victoria Cup when winning at Chester three weeks ago. Up just 3lb he won’t be far away on this ground if his wide draw isn’t an inconvenience. Karl Burke won this race in 2016 and he saddles recent Haydock runner-up Lord Oberon. The 4-year-old is well suited to rain softened ground and should appreciate the return to 7f.

Verdict: In form Kaeso can go close but his wide draw is a slight concern. Aljady has been well found in the market but is open to more progress. Hyperfocus is up just a 1lb for his Ripon win. He has his ground and his prominent style of running should be suited to the track. Another suited by the underfoot conditions is Lord Oberon.

Lord Oberon – 10/1 @ Bet365 & William Hill

Hyperfocus – 14/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook – each way (both paying 5 places 1/5 odds)

Aljady – 6/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

3:00 – William Haggas has his horses in tremendous form and is 1 winner from 1 runner in this race.  He runs Raheen House who is having his first run since moving from the Brian Meehan stable. The 5-year-old ticks the boxes marked going and distance and if the stable switch & gelding operation has done the trick looks to have a good chance here.

Raheen House – 6/1 @ Ladbrokes & Coral

3:35 – Recent Newmarket eyecatcher Blown By Wind makes a quick return after his runner-up effort 7-days ago.  Carries top weight but he’s a big strong colt who won’t have any problem carrying it. Ryan Moore booked for the ride although it’s different going to what he faced at Newmarket and he drops back a furlong in distance he did win on heavy as juvenile. Must be high on the shortlist.  There are plenty of other contenders. Roger Varian opts for the first-time blinkers for Moraawed and a much better run can be expected from him if he handles the rain softened ground. Recon Mission was only beaten ½ length by Leodis Dream at Chester two starts back. Predictably struggled in the Epsom ‘Dash’ but will be suited by the step up to 6f and a return to his own age group. Could get into the money at a big price.

Kevin Ryan saddles three in Rathbone, Yousini & Secret Venture. The lattercould be the best of his threesome. He’s only had four career starts and is unexposed over 6f. William Haggas saddles handicap debutant and recent Ripon winner Victory Day. Looks on a stiff opening mark but is capable of plenty of improvement. The other Haggas runner is Luxor. Twice a winner over 6f as a juvenile, including good to soft nursery at Newbury on his final start of 2018. Ran poorly on his seasonal reappearance at Newmarket last month but the softer ground could well see him run much better here.

Verdict: I think we will see a better performance from Luxor on today’s softer going. Blown By Wind has to be supported after his run at Newmarket last week. The first-time blinkers can help Moraawed go close and Recon Mission & Secret Venture can outrun their odds from their low draws.

Blown By Wind – 12/1 @ Bet365 – each way – (paying 4 places ¼ odds)

Secret Venture – 20/1 @ Bet365 – each way – (paying 4 places ¼ odds)

Eyecatcher Running

Chester

4:55 – Penwortham has dropped to a winnable mark but dropping back a furlong in trip and a wide draw in stall 10 puts me off him today.

Cheers

John

Hi all,

Amanda Perrett has now gone 59 days and 55 runners since her last winner as Zuba weakened out of contention two furlongs from at Newbury. Not one to give up on just yet especially on better ground and when the trainer is back in form.

Well the weekend betting starts here with an eyecatcher running at York this afternoon.

York

3:30 – Proud Archi gets a final chance to get his head in front. The 5-year-old was a good second over 6f at Carlisle 25-day ago. The return to 7f is in his favour and he’s got plenty of form on good to soft not sure he wants it softer though. Now 3lb lower than his last winning mark and should be spot on fitness wise on his 4^th start of the season.

Proud Archi – 10/1  – Gen – each way

2:20 – Michael Appleby has trained two of the last four winners of this corresponding race and he looks to have a good chance of a third win with Sputnik Planum. The 5-year-old is just having his fifth run for the trainer and one of the least exposed runners in the field. A winner twice last spring, over today’s trip, he was off the track for 377-days before returning at Chester last month. Left his Chester run behind when runner-up at Hamilton 8-days ago. He was a beaten favourite at Chester on his return to action which suggests connections think the gelding is on a winnable mark.

Sputnik Planum – 13/2 @ William Hill

Cork

7:25 – Perfect Tapatino looks capable of bold show in the Cork Derby. The 5-year-old was transformed for joining the Joseph O’Brien stable last year with form figures 31211204. Two of those wins came over today’s 1m 4f trip and he was also a close-up second in the valuable October Handicap at Leopardstown, off 3lb lower. Looked unlucky when 4^th of 18 here over an extended mile on his seasonal return. Ran like something was amiss at Naas 26-days ago and is better judged on his effort here back in April which suggests he’s on a winnable mark.

Perfect Tapatino – 8/1 – Gen

Cheers

John

Hi all,

Last weekend’s racing won’t last long in the memory. The principle meeting was at Haydock, but it was heavy at the Lancashire track and I wouldn’t be too keen on the form unless the going was heavy.

The weather has been dreadful more autumnal than summer-like, and the racing hasn’t been much better this week. Mind you it’s given me a good chance to look at the form for Royal Ascot and crunch the numbers ready for my biggest betting week of the flat season.

On Saturday there isn’t one race above Listed Class but there’s some potentially competitive looking cards at York, Sandown & Chester to get us in the mood for Tuesday. More on that later.

There is no review of last weekend’s action in this week’s notebook, the racing just didn’t warrant it. So, it’s straight into the horses for the tracker.

This Weeks Eyecatchers

Thursday June 6^th

Ripon

Anythingtoday, trained by David O’Meara, bounced back to form when runner-up to Speed Company in the Class 4, 1m 4f handicap. The 5-year-old has dropped down to a competitive mark based on form of the summer of 2017.

Given a hold up ride like the winner he took the lead inside the final furlong but was just run out of it in the final 100yds by an even better handicapped horse. The pair pulled nicely clear of the third at the finish and Anythingtoday at least showed he stays 1m 4f.

The handicapper has nudged the gelding up 1lb for this effort, but he remains 3lb below his last winning mark. There is a Class 4 handicap like this in him up North.

Saturday June 8^th

Chelmsford

Ironclad, trained by Hugo Palmer. It’s been a tough start to the season for the trainer but surely, he will turn the corner before long. Ironclad is a colt he can look forward to in the coming weeks. The son of Dubawi, a half brother to Regal Reality, has now improved with each of his three starts in novice/maiden company.

Putting in his best performance when runner-up in the 1m 2f maiden that concluded the Chelmsford card. The 3-year-old looked like he was coming with a winning run inside the final furlong but just couldn’t get passed the gutsy eventual winner.

He now qualifies for handicaps and a mark of 81 look more than workable given he’s bred to be 100+ horse.

Udontdodou, trained by Richard Guest, looks to be running into form based on his last two efforts at Chelmsford. Back in Class 2 company he ran well enough to finish a 2 ½ length 4^th of 10 in the 6f Class 2 handicap won by Lord Riddiford. The 6-year-old was doing his best work at the finish and is on a competitive mark.

He’s now dropped back down last season’s winning mark of 88 and will surely be placed to advantage sooner rather than later.

Haydock

Bernardo O’Reilly, trained by Richard Spencer, was returning from a 228-day absence, and ran a race full of promise with the rest of the season in mind. The 5-year-old, twice a winner on good to soft last season, was slowly away in the 6f handicap but was staying on well enough to finish 6^th of 15.

All five of his career wins have come on good to soft – 4 wins from 5 runs +49.50 with form figures 11191. He’s also very effective in big fields – 2 wins from 2 runs +28 in field sizes 16+.  He’s 0 wins from 1 run above Class 3 company but it’s worth noting he was the 4/1 joint favourite for a Class 2 Doncaster handicap last September.

With this race under his belt he looks set for another decent season when he gets some juice in the ground.

Newmarket

Blown By Wind, trained Mark Johnston, has returned from a winter break in good form finishing runner-up at Leicester on his return and occupying that same position in a better race. The son of Invincible Spirit was the pick of the paddock and just failed to give 11lb to an improving William Haggas colt.

The handicapper has nudged Blown By Wind up 3lb for this effort but he’s a colt with scope for more improvement and showed that he stays 7f. There is a nice pot in him this season. He has an entry in a 6f handicap at York on Saturday.

Stylehunter, trained John Gosden. Sent off the 3/1 favourite, the 4-year-old was far too keen on first start for 228-days and his first run since an off-season gelding operation.

Last year he was 6^th of 30 in the Britannia Handicap at Royal Ascot, beaten just 2 ½ lengths at the finish.  

On the face of it his 5th of 7 looks a disappointing effort but the race should have taken the freshness out of him. Looks the sort for a big field handicap like the Royal Hunt Cup or Cambridgeshire where he will be able to settle better. He remains one to be interested in going forward.

Cheers

John

Hi all,

First eyecatcher of the week running at Newbury this afternoon.

Newbury

4:40 – Zuba – Caught the eye when 3rd to Private Secretary at Sandown on his seasonal reappearance 48-days ago. Not sure why we haven’t seen him for over six weeks. Should have improved for his handicap debut and shapes like he will stay 1m 4f. I’m sure he can win a race off his present mark off 75.

An unknown is soft ground, it was good to firm at Sandown, but his dam won on soft to heavy which gives hope he will handle it.
Another slight concern is trainer form. Amanda Perrett has gone 58 days and 54 runners since her last winner.

7/2 looks about the right price for him. In fact, I thought he might be shorter given Ryan Moore has been booked for the ride. Doubts about the trainer form and the ground have clearly played a part in the bookie’s calculations.

Zuba – 7/2 @ William Hill & Coral

Cheers

John

Hi all,

It was important to end the weekend with a winner and Nuits St Georges did the business for the service at Goodwood in good style.

Most of this week’s racing looks dreadful quality wise, at least until the weekend and will take the opportunity to do some Royal Ascot research.

It doesn’t look like there will be many eyecatchers running until Thursday. As ever i will email you any runners. I will hopefully get this weeks notebook over to you on Wednesday or Thursday.

Cheers

John

Hi all,

Saturday turned out to be challenging day. At least big priced each way selections: Speedo Boy, Mr Diamond and Camacho Chief helped to keep losses manageable.

Today’s racing isn’t great, and the changing weather combines to make it tricky. However, in a bid to end the weekend with a winner I have gone to Goodwood.

Goodwood

3:40 – Nuits St Georges – The 4-year-old had no problem with soft ground and 1m 6f when battling on to hold his rivals at Nottingham 29-days ago. Has an extra two furlongs to travel today but wasn’t stopping last time. Steps up a couple of notches in class here but he’s going the right way, is only up 4lb from Nottingham and unlike some in the field will relish the soft ground.

Trainer David Menuisier does well with last time out winners in handicap races having had 9 winners from 35 runners 26% +19 11 placed 31%

The selection looks worth chancing that he can defy his rise in class.

Nuits St Georges – 9/2 @ William Hill & Coral

Cheers

John

Hi all,

It’s hardly the best Saturday of the summer but I suppose it fulfils a purpose and there is certainly plenty of it.

Weather more akin to autumn with wind and rain also helps to complicate what looks a tough punting day.

Plenty of recent eyecatchers out today with seven running around the country.

Chelmsford

3:40 – Commander Han has yet to finish outside the first three on his four starts on the track. Two of the 4-year-old best three RPR’s have come over C&D. Runner-up in the Thirsk Hunt Cup three starts back but has two disappointing efforts to overcome. Excuses for the last of them as he didn’t stay 1m 2f at Redcar. Should be in the mix returned to C&D and this prominent runner has a good draw in stall 3.

Commander Han – 16/1 @ Bet365 – each way or 14/1 – Gen

Beverley

2:00 – Michael Dods won this race with Easton Angel in 2015 his only runner in the race in the past 10-years. He saddles Yarrow Gate this time around. The daughter of Garswood was to green to do herself justice on her debut over C&D. But showed the benefit for the experience when just failing to get up on soft ground at Carlisle 9-days ago. Stall 7 isn’t the best, but she has each way claims if all eight stand their ground.

Yarrow Gate – 10/1 @ William Hill & Paddy Power – each way

Haydock

3:00 – The rain that fell at Haydock on Friday has turned the going to heavy with more rain forecast. The testing going will really suit the Michael Dods trained Intense Romance. The mare is 2 wins from 2 runs on heavy, she’s 1 win from 1 run over C&D and 2 wins from 4 runs +15 in listed company. Should be fitter today for her Naas return 40-days ago.

Intense Romance – 4/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

4:10 – Another from theMichael Dods stable in the shape of recent Chester eyecatcher Camacho Chief. The 4-year-old was an improved handicapper between August & October last season winning at Carlisle & Leicester. That improved form came over 5f.  Has yet to win on six attempts over 6f but shapes like he should be effective over the distance. Should be ok on the ground as two of his four career wins have come on soft ground. Wasn’t disgraced when 5^th of 9 in a Class 2 handicap at Chester on his seasonal reappearance after a slow start. Better can be expected from him today.

Camacho Chief – 8/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes – each way – (both paying 4 places ¼ odds)

Newmarket

2:45 – Speedo Boy might be better over 2m but has form over 1m 6f, including when beaten less than 2 lengths into 5^th in the valuable Mallard Handicap at Doncaster. Two disappointing runs at Meydan and was a well beaten 7^th of 15 in the Chester Cup. The 5-year-old ha each way claims especially if they go a decent gallop.

Speedo Boy – 14/1 @ William Hill (paying 5 places 1/5 odds)

3:55 – Arguably the most competitive handicap of the day with a field of 15 sprint handicapper set to race over 6f. Recent eyecatcher Staxton won over C&D last July and is suited by some ease in the ground. Made an good return to action when 3^rd of 15 at Ripon two starts back. Disappointing effort at York on good to firm 24-days ago but is down to a competitive mark. Aces won over 7f here last June, off 1lb higher, after winning a 6f Epsom handicap on Derby Day. Mase a promising return to action when 4^th of 12 at Chester. Has to shrug off a disappointing run back at Chester 14-days ago. Ryan Moore 1 from 1 on the 7-year-old is back in the saddle. First time cheekpieces add interest and the he’s got each way claims back at 6f.

Staxton – 8/1 @ William Hill & Coral – each way – (both paying 4 places 1/5 odds)

Aces – 12/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes – each way –  (both paying 4 places 1/5 odds)

Recent Eyecatchers Running

Newmarket

2:10 – Mr Diamond – 16/1 @ Ladbrokes – each way – (paying 4 places 1/5 odds) Won’t mind some rain and he race’s off a nice light weight here. Each way claims.

5:35 – Autumn War – 9/1 – Gen – Needs to settle better than he has on his two starts this season. A combination of 1m 4f and good to soft going didn’t help last time. Better judged on his good ground seasonal reappearance at Doncaster.

Chelmsford

3:40 – Bless Him – 6/1 @ William Hill & Coral – Recent York eyecatcher, won a C&D maiden as a 3-year-old. Stall 4 fine and he should get a strong pace to chase.

3:40 – Qaroun – 5/1 @ Paddy Power – Twice placed here in the past. He found 7f a bit short last time at Goodwood and will be suited to a return to a mile. Stall ten could be better.

Lingfield

8:15 – Vegas Boy – 11/2 @ Gen – A previous C&D winner. The 4-year-old ran a cracker when runner-up at Ascot two starts back. Poor run at Windsor 19-days ago to overcome but could easily bounce back here.

Cheers

John

Hi all,

We have two recent eyecatchers running on Thursday.

Ripon

3:50 – Just Hiss -18/1 @ Bet365 & BetVictor – each way – Has placed here in the past and the ground will be fine. Races prominently but could find he won’t get an easy lead out in front. Each way claims at best today

Hamilton

5:00 – Van Gerwen – 7/2 – Bet365 & BetVictor – Stiff 5f will suit as will the easy ground. Stall 1 slight concern but a good chance for this recent Ponterfract eyecatcher.

Cheers

John