Author: John Burke

Hi all,

Art Of Payroll never got competitive at Southwell yesterday. I wasn’t going to put up a selection on Monday, but one has caught my eye at Windsor.

Windsor

6:30 – You have to go back to September 2016 for Harry Hurricane’s last win.However, the 7-year-old has shown a couple of times this season that he can win again when all the cards fall right. Three starts back he was beaten a head into second at Salisbury off 2lb higher. Got no luck in the run at Goodwood, in a much better race than this, 20-days ago. A close-up 4^th in this race 12 months ago, off 3lb higher. Cieren Fallon takes off a valuable 5lb today and reproduction of his performances this year would see the selection go close.  

Harry Hurricane – 13/2 @ Ladbrokes & William Hill

All my focus, this week, will be on the Ebor Festival and my next selections will be for Day 1 at York..

Cheers

John

Hi all,

Glorious Journey, early priced advised 9/1, landed a bit of touch to win the Hungerford Stakes at Newbury. His success combined with Presidental’s second placed effort meant a handy profit has been made over the last two days.

Sunday’s racing looks moderate this side of the English Channel. However, at Deauville we have the Group 1 Prix Morny for 2-year-olds. Looking at the field it has the makings of the best juvenile race seen in Europe this season. Sadly, the bookies don’t seem to have priced up the race at the time of writing this.

Southwell

3:20 – Art Of Payroll won this Class 2 handicap chase 2-years ago. He’s only had two runs since that success, the last of which came 487-days ago when he finished 2^nd of 16 in valuable handicap chase at Cheltenham. The 10-year-old clearly hasn’t been the easiest to keep sound, but he’s handicapped to win this, if he’s over what has kept off the racecourse for so long. Good ground suits and first time up could be the time to catch him.  

Art Of Payroll – 11/4 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

Cheers

John

Hi all,

Blue De Vega did the business for us on Friday. Hopefully you got on at the double figure prices that were available in the morning.

Saturday’s racing isn’t great and with four big punting days at York ahead, I’m keeping selections down to a minimum today.  I have looked at the two Ripon handicaps in more detail but I also have three selections racing at, Newbury Newmarket & Doncaster.

Ripon

2:05 -William Hill Silver Trophy Handicap (Consolation Race For The William Hill Great St Wilfrid Stakes) (Class 2) – 6f

Looks on paper as tough a race as the Great St Wilfrid but with out the prize money. Plenty of old handicappers who have dropped down to winnable marks such as three-time C&D winner Flying Pursuit. The 6-year-old hasn’t quite fired so far this season, but he ticks the key boxes of going, course & distance and is well handicapped if he bounces back to form today. Lucky Lucky Man is another well handicapped horse, being 5lb lower than when winning the Ayr Bronze Cup on heavy ground last September. The 4-year-old shaped like he was about to run into winning form when 3^rd of 9 at Hamilton 14-days ago and is one for the shortlist. Another for the shortlist is Royal Prospect. The 4-year-old has a different profile to most of the field. He’s only had the nine career starts, winning four of them. The latter of those wins came at Redcar 27-days ago.  First run at Ripon and his Redcar win came on good to firm. He’s also won on good to soft and should be effective if has turned soft. He’s a handicap sprinter going the right way and is only 3lb higher than for his last win.

Verdict: I wouldn’t be surprised if Flying Pursuit returned to form to win this. Royal Prospect has a progressive profile and if he handles the course shouldn’t be far away again.

Flying Pursuit – 8/1 – Gen

Royal Prospect – 14/1 @ Bet365 (paying 4 places ¼ odds) or 12/1 William Hill (paying 5 places 1/5 odds)

3:15 – William Hill Great St Wilfrid Handicap (Class 2) – 6f

Tim Easterby has a couple of live contenders in Vintage Brut & Staxton. The former won a York Listed race on his final start as a juvenile last October. Not in the same form so far this season but the 3-year-old has dropped down to a competitive mark and is effective on rain softened ground. Gets the first-time blinkers today which could see him come back to his best.

Staxton won a valuable 6f handicap on the tapeta at Newcastle back in June and wasn’t disgraced when 3^rd in the Scottish Stewards Cup at Hamilton on his next start. Has to poor York run to put behind him but ran well over C&D earlier in the season. Might have a good draw in stall 20. Great Prospector has been racing mostly over further but 6f on soft ground could be ideal for the Richard Fahey trained 4-year-old. Gunmetal won this race 12 months ago, off 4lb lower not without a chance even off this higher mark but he surely, needs quicker ground than he looks likely to get today. No issues with easy ground for Lahore who won over C&D 12 -days ago. The 5-year-old has only had 11 career starts wining four of them. Up 3lb for his last win but he can get a good tow into the race on the stand side and looks capable of going close.

Verdict: Another race where a well handicapped, if out of form horse, could get into the winner’s enclosure. Vintage Brut & Staxton give trainer Tim Easterby a good hand in the race, slight preference for the first named. Meanwhile Lahore is going the right way and could make that extra bit of improvement needed to win.

Vintage Brut – 16/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes (paying 5 places 1/5 odds) or 14/1 @ William Hill (paying 6 places 1/5 odds)

Lahore – 10/1 @ Paddy Power or 9/1 @ Ladbrokes & Coral

Newmarket

3:55 – Aplomb, trained by William Haggas is the one they all have to beat here. The 3-year-old showed again that he’s at his best with plenty of ease in the ground when winning at Leicester 6-days ago. Has a 6lb penalty to carry for that success but as longs at the ground is good to soft or softer, I think he can defy it. Although I wouldn’t want to take less than 5/2 about his chance!

Aplomb – 5/2 or bigger

Newbury

3:35 – Unibet Hungerford Stakes (Group 2) – 7f

Not many runners but a tricky puzzle with the soft ground unlikely to play to the strengths of last year’s winner Sir Dancealot & Hey Gaman.  The mud loving Safe Voyage’s claims are clear for all to see but he looks plenty short enough now. The return to 7f will suit Glorious Journey who has winning form on good to soft. A reproduction of his neck second to Limato two starts back ago put him very much in the mix here. Wasn’t disgraced in the Group 1 July Cup on his last start and since 2008 – 4 winners from 12 runners +14.75 7 placed 58% have came into this race having raced in Group 1 race on their last run. Not the strongest Group 2 you will see so Glorious Journey can be in the mix on his best form.

Glorious Journey – 9/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

Doncaster

2:50 – Presidential has won over C&D and has several other good efforts here at Doncaster. Three starts back he was slowly away and did well to finish 5^th of 11 from off the pace over C&D. Built on that promise when ½ second at Ayr on his next start. The 5-year-old was disappointing at Redcar 7-days ago but the first time cheekpieces are enlisted today. A very useful performer and He’s dropped down to a tempting handicap mark. Must avoid another poor start but if he does and he gets a decent pace to chase, I can see him getting into the places. Vulnerable to any progressive horses in the field but should give his supporters a good run for their money.

Presidential – 12/1 @ Bet365 – each way

Not sure if there will be any selections on Sunday so watch your inbox for updates.

Cheers

John

Hi all,

Tribal Craft had to settle for second at Salisbury as the Group entered Sea Of Faith showed she was a well handicapped filly.

It’s another day for recent eyecatchers with two running on Friday.

Nottingham

4:10 – Not So Sleepy showed that he needs 1m 6f these days when staying on to finish 4^th of 17 in a hot handicap won by Kings Advice. He should be better suited by the easier ground he faces here and shouldn’t be far away. The only negative is the form of the Hughie Morrison stable 1 win from 18 runners in the past 14-days. Rochester House who is looking for the hat trick, after wins on good & good to firm ground, rates the big danger to our eyecatcher if he’s as effective on soft going.

Not So Sleepy – 9/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

Chelmsford

7:10 – Blue De Vega caught the eye at Ascot three starts back. Not so good over 6f on his last two but a strongly run 5f really suits as he showed when 3^rd of 19 in the Epsom Dash. He’s now 4lb lower than at Epsom and a reproduction of that run would see the 6-year-old win this. On the negative side he’s yet to win on five starts on the synthetics and he hasn’t won any of his last 17 races. I’m going win only but I wouldn’t put anyone splitting stakes and going each way, given the geldings profile.  

One of his stablemates Encore d’Or could also go well. The 7-year-old is on a competitive mark on his based all-weather form this year. Eight of his ten career wins have come on the all weather and his C&D form figures are 31173. He’s not as well drawn as Blue De Vega but the first-time visor makes him interesting and Osin Murphy has been booked for the ride. Plenty in his favour, IF the headgear has the desired effect.

My main selection is Blue De Vega who is given one final chance to win but I will have a saver on stablemate Encore d’Or.

Blue De Vega – 12/1 @Bet365 or 11/1 – Gen

Enocre d’Or – 12/1 @ Bet365 or 11/1 – Gen

Cheers

John

Hi all,

We are coming to the end of that ‘dead zone’ period between the end of Goodwood and the start of York’s Ebor Meeting.

The last seven days didn’t provide the best week of racing and means a quiet week on the eyecatchers front.

This weekend it’s Newbury which plays host to Saturday’s feature meeting with the Group 2 Hungerford Stakes, the Group 3 Geoffrey Freer Stakes and the Listed Denford Stakes, formerly known as the Washington Singer Stakes, for 2-year-olds the main highlights.

At HQ Newmarket has a competitive looking card which lacks Group action but has three Class 2 handicaps and the Grey Horse Handicap, which surprisingly enough is just for grey horses.

Ripon holds its most valuable race day of the year, with the highlight being the weekend’s big betting race the 6f William Hill Great St Wilfrid Handicap with £46,688 on offer to the winner of this historic race.

More on the weekend action later.  Back to last week’s horses for the tracker of which there are five.

Friday August 9th

Curragh

Face Off, trained by Charles O’Brien, a winner at Navan back in June the filly returned to action for the first time since that win when finishing 3^rd of 16 at the Curragh on Friday evening. She had been 8lb for that win, but the form of the race had worked out well and she was expected to remain competitive despite her rise in the weights. And competitive she was as the 4-year-old showed she remains a progressive handicap sprinter.

The handicapper has raised her a further 1lb for her Curragh run but she can win again over 5f before the season is out.

Newmarket

Blakeney Point, trained by Roger Charlton, seems like he’s been around for ever but he’s only a 6-year-old. Last seasons Ebor 5^th has only had three starts in 2019 but on Friday he showed that he could be about to return to winning form when returning from an 86-day absence to finish a staying on 4^th of 6 in a competitive 1m 4f Class 2 handicap.

This was a step back in the right direction after a couple of low-key efforts earlier in the season. Five of the geldings seven career wins have come in September/October and if you look at his record on good ground or softer, over 1m 4f to 2m his record is healthy 7 wins from 14 runs 50% +30.66 6 placed 57%.

He’s dropped down to a winnable mark and is 6lb lower than when racing in last years Ebor Handicap. I doubt he’s up to winning a race as competitive as that these days but a decent stamina test over 1m 4f/1m 6f is what he needs. Once he gets his ground conditions there is a race to be won off his present mark.

Thirsk

Grimsdyke, trained by Tim Easterby, had seemed to leave his previous form behind when winning at Redcar 9-days previously, beating a well fancied stablemate in the process. Had a 6lb penalty to carry for that win.

Racing more towards the centre, the winner and other placed horses came stand side, he beat all those who were in his group down the middle and in the circumstances his second placing can be marked up.

His Redcar win came on good ground, but he showed on Friday that he can be just as effective on soft, as indeed his half siblings were.  The 3-year-old has just had seven career runs and is bred to be a better than a 51 rated horse. On the evidence of this run he’s more than capable of winning more races.

Saturday August 10^th

Ascot

Recon Mission, trained by Tony Carroll. I put him up as an eyecatcher in Monday Daily Punt column and this is what I wrote.

“An all the way winner of a valuable 6f York handicap back in June off 7lb lower. The colt bounced back to form here, after a poor run at Newbury, with an excellent 4th, beaten just a ½ length in the 5f sprint.

The ground which was officially described as good which would have been a shade to quick for him so in the circumstances it was an excellent effort

The 3-year-old’s career record is a healthy 3 wins from 12 runs +26.5 6 placed 50%. Breaking that down he’s 0 wins from 5 runs 0 places on good or quicker ground. But with ease in the ground he’s 3 wins from 7 runs 43% + 31.5 6 placed 86%. Taking out his Group 3 run then his form figures on good to soft and worse are 112321.

He remains on a winnable mark when getting his optimum ground conditions and there’s another decent pot to be won.

Given he goes well at York. I would think we will see him run in one of the sprint handicaps at the upcoming Ebor Festival. Connections will be hoping the unsettled weather continues in the run up to the meeting”.

Chelmsford

Crossing The Line, trained by Andrew Balding, put in an excellent effort when finishing 3^rd to Lady Lawyer in the Class 2 fillies handicap. The 4-year-old had a great 2018 with form figures of 212111 and had returned to action with a win at Kempton back in March. Not quite up to that level on subsequent starts although she was only beaten a length in a 7f Listed race at Chelmsford back in June. She put a poor run in the Bunbury Cup when 3^rd of 9 here on Saturday. On a day when it was hard to make up ground from behind, the two who finished in front of here were first and second from the start, her effort can be upgraded.

She won the 7f fillies handicap at last years Ebor Festival off 7lb lower and that could be her target again if the ground is quick enough. Whatever her fate should she go to York again, the daughter of Cape Cross who’s effective on both polytrack and a sound surface on turf shouldn’t be waiting too long to for another career win.

Cheers

John

Hi all,

There’s good looking Class 2 fillies handicap at Salisbury and it’s a race that provides a rare Thursday selection.

Salisbury

4:55 – There might only be seven runners in this 1m 4f handicap, but you can make some sort case for all of them. Litigious, trained by John Gosden, heads the market.  A winner on her racecourse debut at Goodwood back in June she then went on to win on soft ground at Chester 19-days ago. Makes her handicap debut off a mark of 91 which could easily underestimate her. The most likely winner but isn’t much of price.

Sea Of Faith is next in the betting. She looked a potential Group filly after her first two starts, which she could still turn out to be. A winner of a soft ground maiden at Doncaster two starts back she was then beaten at 4/5 on her handicap debut at Newbury 27-days ago.  Handles soft ground but she might be better over further.

Tribal Craft was a Goodwood Festival eyecatcher. The Andrew Balding trained filly built on the promise of her Sandown racecourse debut when winning here over 1m 2f and at Pontefract. The daughter of Mastercraftsman made her handicap debut at Goodwood in the race won by Sir Ron Priestley. She had a luckless run after being hampered at the start and also didn’t get the best of runs when making her effort two furlongs out and eventually finished 7^th of 13.  I think she’s on a competitive mark off 89 and she proved she handles soft ground when winning here. It’s possible she could get an uncontested lead today.

Verdict: I think Tribal Craft can outrun her odds and she can give Litigious a race. It’s just a shame there are not the eight runners

Tribal Craft – 12/1 @ Paddy Power or 10/1 – Gen

My latest weekly notebook will be up on Thursday evening.

Cheers

John

Hi all,

The racing on Sunday looks pretty dreadful so it’s over to France for today’s preview.

Deauville

3:25 – Prix du Haras de Fresnay-le-Buffard Jacques le Marois (Group 1) – 1m

Watch Me impressed when winning the Group 1 Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot on her last start. This doesn’t look the strongest Group 1 you will see, and she does get all the allowances, as a 3-year-old filly. Just the career runs so could be capable of bit more progress. She’s the most likely winner. and the mile division does need one a good horse to go into the autumn campaign.

Romanised probably isn’t a genuine Group 1 horse although he did win the Irish 2,000 Guineas last year. Gets a pacemaker today to ensure the good even gallop he needs.

Study Of Man also won a Classic last year, in his case the Prix Du Jockey Club (French Derby) and ended last season with a 4 ½ length 9^th  of 19 to Enable in the Arc.  Ran well on his first two starts this year when runner-up to Waldgeist and Zabeel Prince in Group 1’s in the spring. He was below par, when favourite, in a Group 3 over C&D 21-days ago. However, the blinkers he wore in the Arc are back on for the first time this season. That was also his first run for 56-days and connections feel that he needed the run last time. Like Romanised he gets a pacemaker which should ensure the race is run at a good pace. He might be better over a bit further but has the form to be competitive.

Verdict: Hard to look beyond Watch Me who can confirm she’s the best 3-year-old mile filly in Europe with a win here but Study Of Man has the ability to go close and looks a good each-way bet if all eight do stand their ground.

Cheers

John

Hi all,

It’s Shergar Cup Day. Sorry, it just doesn’t do it for me. I will probably watch the event on TV but It’s not a card I have looked at.  

It’s also one of those few Saturday’s during the summer where much of the rest of the action doesn’t excite either. The fact that two of today’ selections run at Chelmsford and one over the Atlantic in Arlington Million says it all.

Newmarket

3:45 – german-thoroughbred.com Sweet Solera Stakes (Group 3) – 7f

Ultra Violet put in a visually impressive performance when winning here on her racecourse debut 43 days ago. Steps up to 7f here but she should be suited by it. Sir Michael Stoute doesn’t have many first-time out juveniles but Soffika was a strong at the finish when winning over 6f Pontefract on her racecourse debut 48-days ago. The daughter of Zoffany should improve for this extra furlong and she’s also bred to better with racing. Ananya built on the promise of her racecourse debut when winning over C&D 21-days ago. She needs to improve again to win a race like this but has the potential to do so. It’s Ananya for me each way.

Ananya – 14/1 @ Bet365 & Coral – each way

Chelmsford

2:45 – Encrypted was an improved sprinter last season finishing runner-up in the Portland Handicap before ending the season with a win in a 6f Listed race at Lingfield in November. Hasn’t hit form in his two starts in 2019 but wasn’t disgraced when 4^th in a Group 3 at Newcastle 42-days ago. The 4-year-old is 2-2 over C&D, the last of those wins coming off 10lb lower 12 months ago. Darragh Keenan takes off a valuable 5lb which could make all the difference at the finish.

Encrypted – 6/1 @ William Hill & Paddy Power

3:55 – Crossing The Line disappointed in the Bunbury Cup but two of her three top RPR’s have come over C&D, including when finishing a length second behind recent Goodwood winner Billesdon Brook here two starts back. Has a big chance if she reproduces that run. Island Of Life was a length further back in 5^th that day but Cieran Fallon does take off a useful 5lb. She doesn’t find it easy to win and hasn’t exactly been in form on her last three starts. Probably requires a strong pace to chase and would need all the cards to fall right if she’s to win this.

Crossing The Line – 17/2 @ William Hill

Arlington Park – Sunday Morning

12:12 – Arlington Million XXXVII Stakes (Grade 1) – 1m 2f

It says it all about today’s racing that I have selection here. Bricks And Mortar comes in to the race the strong Morning Line favourite in the US. The 5-year-old has won his last five successive races and has been aimed at this race by Chad Brown since winning a Grade 1 at Belmont Park back in June. He will take plenty of beating on his favoured fast ground.

At an each-way price I like the claims of French raider Intellogent.  A Group 1 winner in France in July last year. He put in his best effort since that run when beaten less than 2 lengths in a Longchamp Group 1 Prix d’Ispahan, 77-days ago. Blinkers replace the cheekpieces he wore last time and if they have the desired effect, I can see him giving the favourite most to do. Despite stall 9, the 20/1 available with William Hill looks each-way value to me.

Intellogent – 20/1 @ William Hill – each way

Cheers

John

Hi all,

Rare foray, outside the big festivals, into the midweek racing paid off with Migration coming from last to win at Sandown on Thursday evening.

Tomorrow’s action is likely to be low key on the betting front. Hence, why it’s a busier Friday than normal.

Newmarket

5:25 – East Of Eden – Caught the eye, when 3^rd of 9, on her racecourse debut here at the July Festival 29-days ago. Despite been keen for much of the race the filly still managed to stay on into the places. Needs to settle better than she did last time, but today’s bigger field should suit in that regard. More than capable of landing a race like this before hopefully moving on better things.

East Of Eden – 5/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

7:10 – A decent looking Class 2 1m 4f handicap it’s just a shame that it’s only attracted seven runners. Outbox in the first time cheekpieces is sure to be popular with punters after his neck second to Kings Advice at Goodwood. Almost Midnight ran better than his position suggests when 7^th of 13 in the Group 2 Queen’s Vase at Royal Ascot two starts back.  Ran well to finish runner-up on his handicap debut back at the same track 14-days ago. In race, not run to suit, where the winner got an uncontested lead. The 3-year-old did well to finish as close as he did. In the circumstance his performance can be slightly marked up. Up 3lb but can remain competitive. Corelli didn’t stay when stepped up to 2m 5 ½ f in the Queen Alexandra Stakes at Royal Ascot. The 4-year-old is better judged on his 2^nd of 9, beaten ½ length, by Baghdad on the other course on his seasonal reappearance. He’s 2lb higher now but he’s lightly raced and will be better suited by the drop back to 1m 4f.

Corelli – 5/2 – Gen

Almost Midnight – 9/2 – Gen

Musselburgh

3:40 – Another race with a decent prize money on offer which has attracted a small field of seven runners. Ulster would have a decent chance if replicating his 2^nd of 14 behind Austrian School over C&D back in April.  He’s disappointed on both subsequent starts but he goes well here and looks like he could get an uncontested lead. If the first-time blinkers do the trick, he should be there or thereabouts although any further easing of the ground probably won’t be in his favour. Alright Sunshine’s claims are there for all to see and he made it 2 from 4 on the flat when winning on his handicap debut at Ripon 25-days ago. Well suited by the course 1-1 on the flat and 2-2 in bumpers here. He’s up 4lb for his last win. If he stays today’s extra two furlongs, he looks the most likely winner. Trainer David Menuisier makes the long trip up from Sussex with Dragons Voice. The 5-year-old, a winner at Windsor two starts back ran just as well when runner-up at Thirsk on his last run.  Up 2f in trip today but races like he should stay. Any easing of the ground will be in his favour as he’s 4 wins from 10 runs 7 placed when soft is in the going description. Hopefully Dragon’s Voice, his trainers first runner at the track can be a winning one.

Dragon’s Voice – 7/2 @ Bet365 & Betway

Cheers

John

Hi all,

Rather surprisingly I have a Thursday selection for you.

Sandown

7:15 – Eight are set to go to post for this 1m 2f handicap although there must be a doubt about the participation of Mubariz who ran at Bath on Wednesday.

There are three previous winners in the field in Just The Man, Dreamweaver and Mokammal. All three are going the right way but Mokammal might just be the best of the trio. The 3-year-old battled on well to win on his handicap debut at Chester 41-days ago. His trainer Sir Michael Stoute is master at placing middle distance handicappers. He’s up 4lb in a better race today but given he’s only had the four career starts there’s likely more to come from the gelding.

Migration could well become my new ‘cliff horse’. A winner of a 1m handicap at Newmarket three starts ago, He was then sent off just 7/1 for the Britannia Handicap at Royal Ascot where he could only finish 7^th of 28. Shaped better on first attempt at 1m 2f when 7^th in a better handicap than this at Newmarket 27-days ago. Doing his best work at the finish he seemed to stay the 1m 2f well enough although the 3-year-olds not bred to get more than a mile. Just 2lb higher than for his Newmarket win I’m expecting a big run from the selection. Silvestre De Sousa is up for the first time and he’s 2 -3 +11.38 when teaming up with trainer David Menuisier.

Verdict: As much as I respect the claims of the Stoute horse for this handicap. I think Migration is capable of landing this off his present mark. That said I wouldn’t want to take less than 4/1 about his chance.

Migration – 6/1 @ Bet365 or 9/2 @ Ladbrokes & Coral

Cheers

John