Author: John Burke

Hi all,

To get you in the mood for the Cambridgeshire Meeting which starts tomorrow. I have a couple of live ones running at Perth & Goodwood today.

Perth

3:50 – Forth Bridge finally got his head in front over fences at the 11^h attempt when winning at Kempton back in March.  Not as good in a hot handicap on his last run at Ayr in April. The 6-year-old isn’t the easiest to catch right but he does go well fresh and trainer Charlie Longsdon is 4-8 in the past 14-days. Granted stamina for 3m must be taken on trust but if he stays, he can win this.

2pts win – Forth Bridge – 5/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

Goodwood

4:10 – Lorelina hasn’t been in last season’s progressive form on rain softened but has dropped back to her last winning mark. Ground will suit and although she was well beaten in this race 12 months ago there’s no reason why she won’t stay 1m 6f. The mare has to take on some potential improving 3-year-old’s which won’t be easy but if she at her best she won’t be far away. Just a shame there isn’t eight runners. At around 14/1 she does look overpriced to me.

1pt win Lorelina – 14/1 – Gen

This week’s shortened weekly notebook will be with you this evening

Cheers

John

Hi all,

Some poor racing on Sunday. However, I do have a selection from Hamilton who will enjoy the return to a softer surface.

Hamilton

5:30 – Cuba Ruba, a winner at Musselburgh (good to soft) two starts back. Wasn’t disgraced back at the same venue on quicker ground when 4^th of 7 under his 6lb penalty 9 days later.  The 3-year-old has dropped 3lb for that last effort and a return to a more testing surface can see him back in a better light.

1pt win – Cuba Ruba – 8/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

My next scheduled update will be on Wednesday. If there are any selections in between, I will let you know.

Cheers

John

Hi all,

Hopefully the sunny weather will continue for Gold Cup Day at Ayr. There’s also a competitive looking card at Newbury where the highlight is the Group 2 Mill Reef Stakes for the 2-year-olds. Let’s begin at Ayr.

Ayr Gold Cup Festival – Day 3

2:00 – Irreverent won here over 7f back in June. The 3-year-old put in a career best when winning at Thirsk 14-days ago. He’s up just 3lb for that success and should be suited by a stronger gallop and a bigger field than he faced at Thirsk. Interestingly trainer Richard Fahey opts the first time cheekpieces today. Irreverent probably needs to improve a bit further to win this but the first-time headgear could elicit that improvement.

Boston George was an eyecatcher when finishing 6^th of 16 in a competitive handicap at York on his last start. Held up in a moderately run race wasn’t really the place to be and his effort there was better than his final position suggests. The 3-year-old has only had the six career starts and could be capable of a bit more improvement if the first time cheekpieces have the desired effect.

1pt win – Irreverent – 11/2 @ William Hill & Ladbrokes

1pt win – Boston George – 10/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

2:40 – The Gold Cup consolation race. Looking at yesterday’s Bronze Cup being drawn stands side wasn’t really the place to be. But who knows if the racecourse has watered overnight in attempt to even things out a bit?

You can make good cases for favourite Alkaraama and recent Thirsk runner-up Lahore, but they are well found in the market. So, I’m looking for some value either side of the track here.  

Rathone is drawn in stall 21. The 3-year-old won his first two starts of this season at Pontefract & Leicester. He has disappointed on his last three starts but looks to have been trained for the race by Kevin Ryan and should be suited by a strongly run 6f on drying ground. He’s just 4lb higher than for his last win and can outrun his odds

Drawn in stall 1 is Royal Residence. The 4-year-old was runner-up in last years Bronze Cup (Heavy) but showed he doesn’t need rain softened ground to go well when winning at Yarmouth on good to firm in July, off 4lb lower. He’s run well enough on both his last starts to think he remains in good form to think he’s got each way claims here.

0.5pts each way – Rathbone – 40/1 @ Paddy Power (paying 5 places 1/5 odds)

0.5pts each way – Royal Residence – 14/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes (both 5 places 1/5 odds)

3:45 – The Ayr Gold Cup. In all truth it’s hard to look beyond the favourite Buffer Zone (21) who won the valuable sprint handicap at the Curragh on Sunday. Gets a 5lb penalty for that success which makes him a well handicapped horse if reproducing his best form after such a quick turnaround. He should get a good tow into the race on his side from Major Jumbo.  Probably a Group horse running in a handicap but just a nagging concern that race may come to soon. I hope I’m wrong as he one of my two selections for the race.

Of those drawn low Hey Jonesy (8) & Laugh A Minute (5) look interesting in the first-time headgear. The former was beaten just 2 lengths in last year’s Commonwealth Cup and beaten 3 ¼ lengths into 9th in Wokingham Handicap at Royal Ascot, off 3lb higher than today. Gets the first-time visor today which needs to have the desired effect but if it works, he got a decent chance for Kevin Ryan who knows what’s required to win the race.

Laugh A Minute, trained by Roger Varian, has been running consistently in listed company without winning this year. The 4-year-old ran too bad to be true at Hamilton on his handicap debut 64-days ago. If you excuse that run, he looks on a competitive mark, looks the sort to be suited by a big field handicap and the first-time blinkers have been enlisted today.

2pts win – Buffer Zone – 6/1 @ Paddy Power or 11/2 @ Ladbrokes & Coral

0.5pts each way – Hey Jonesy – 10/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes (Coral & Ladbrokes (both 5 places 1/5 odds)

Newbury

3:30 – Thirteen go to post for this competitive 1m 2f handicap. The improving Forest Of Dean is 5lb higher than when at York but the 3-year-old remains open to further improvement and is the one to beat.

The two main dangers to the favourite could be Caradoc and Migration. Caradoc, a winner two starts back at Windsor, then finished 3^rd of 16 at York when stepped up to 1m 4f. The drop down to 1m 2f shouldn’t be a problem and he remains on an upward curve.

Migration, a winner over today’s distance at Sandown two starts back. He was then sent off the 9/4 favourite returned to that venue 21-days ago. Made up a lot of ground from the rear that day and looked like he would repay his supporters when taking it up inside the final furlong but his effort to get to the front just told on the 3-year-old in the final 50yds and he had to settle for the runners-up spot. Up 3lb today but remains a horse capable of winning a race like this. He just needs to be produced as close to the line as possible.  He looks a solid each way alternative to the favourite.

1pt each way – Migration – 13/2 @ Paddy Power & William Hill

Cheers

John

Morning all,

Another seven-race card for day 2 of Ayr’s Western Meeting. There’s also a good card at Newbury with a few juvenile races which will be informative with next season in mind. There’s also an interesting 1m4 Class 2 handicap.

Ayr Gold Cup Festival – Day 2

3:15 – Michael Dods trained the winner 12 months ago and looks to have a lively contender in recent York nursery winner Que Amoro. The 3-year-old has only had the five career starts and looks capable of more progress despite the step up in class here. Last year’s winner Intense Romance also won the York nursery before coming here. No issues with the drying ground as both her wins have come on good or quicker going.

2pts win – Que Amoro – 5/1 @ Bet365 or 4/1 – Gen

3:45 – The first of the Ayr Gold Cup consolation races. Just the 25 runners go to post for the Bronze Cup.

Tommy G was an eyecatcher at Doncaster last week. The 6-year-old didn’t break to well from the stalls in the Lady Rider 6f handicap. Held up in the rear he was travelling better than most of his rivals, but behind a wall of horses, coming to two out. He had to switched to the stands side to make his effort and made good headway under a hands and heels ride to finish 7th of 16, beaten 3 ¼ lengths. 

Third in the Goodwood Stewards Cup consolation race; he remains on a competitive mark. Eight in last year’s Bronze Cup at Ayr on heavy ground, he can race off 8lb lower in this year’s race. Will benefit from stronger handling than he got last time.

At bigger prices the Richard Fahey pair of Paddy Power & Wasntexpectingthat shouldn’t be far away if all the cards fall right.

In truth I was hoping for 10/1 about Tommy G so he’s plenty short enough in the market albeit he remains my idea of the most likely winner.

1pt each way – Tommy G – Jim Goldie – 13/2 @ Paddy Power or 6/1 – Gen – paying 5 places

Newbury

2:20 – Despite the small field, just six runners, this is an intriguing little race. It’s 7/2 the field with the outsider a best priced 6/1.

Two-time course winner Scarlet Dragon disappointed at York last time but prior to that had finished 4^th of 13 behind Kings Advice at Goodwood. He can be keen in his races but if his jockey can get him settled the 6-year-old needs respecting.

Shailene finished one place in front of Scarlet Dragon at Goodwood. The filly has since gone onto finish second in a German Group 2 and shouldn’t be far away here.

My idea of the winner is Soto Sizzler. Twice a winner at Epsom this season seems to go very well on downhill tracks. The 4-year-old was sent off the 5/1 joint favourite for a 1m 2f Goodwood handicap on his last start but lacked the pace to get competitive and could only finish 9^th. Given the market support he received that he probably remains on a winnable mark and will be better suited by a return to today’s distance.

1pt win – Soto Sizzler – 4/1 @ Bet365 & Paddy Power

Cheers

John

Hi all,

It’s the start of the three day, Ayr Western Meeting. Unlike Doncaster last week there’s no shortage of runners which is good. However, there is a downside. It looks a very tough card to navigate so I will be keeping most of my powder dry for Friday & Saturday.

Ayr Gold Cup Festival – Day 1

3:30 -William Hill Doonside Cup Stakes (Listed Race) – 1m 2f

Not the strongest of renewals of the race. Forest Ranger has to give 7lb to his rivals due to his Group 2 win at Chester In May. He’s the class horse in the race and could be able to give the weight away.

Andrew Balding is 2 winners from 4 runners 50% +3.12 3 placed 75% in the race. He saddles Encapsulation. The 3-year-old was only beaten ½ length by Pink Dogwood in a Navan Listed race back in April when trained in Ireland. Ran well, when runner-up, over a mile at Sandown on her first start for Andrew Balding two starts back but she did run flat at York after. Has been given a 55-day break to freshen her up and reproduction of her best form makes her a big contender here.

2pts win – Encapsulation – 5/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

4:30 – Orange Blossom, won a 5f race at Kempton for James Given back in the spring. Now with Richard Fahey she’s not been disgraced on either start for her new stable and she put in a career best when runner-up at Epsom on her last start at Epsom 24-days ago. Drops back to the minimum trip here and it should suit the filly.

1pt win – Orange Blossom – 7/1 @ William Hill

5:00 – True Romance looked progressive, albeit at a modest level, when winning at Musselburgh & Catterick and wasn’t beaten far when 4^th of 12 at Thirsk on soft ground 34-days ago. The 5-year-old is fancied to return to form back on better ground off what remains a competitive mark.

1pt win – True Romance –  7/1 @ William Hill

Cheers

John

Hi all,

My weekly notebook returns from a week’s absence due to the St Leger Festival.  I wont go on about the poor field sizes for the Class 2 handicaps at the meeting, as I covered it in my Monday Daily Punt column, but they were dreadful and the last three races on Saturday’s card were a poor advertisement for the sport.

Plenty of big race action this week. Tomorrow see the start of Ayr’s Gold Cup Festival which climaxes with the Ayr Gold Cup on Saturday. At Newbury it’s the Group 2 Mill Reef Stakes that is the feature race of a seven-race card. Meanwhile at Newmarket we have the Cesarewitch Trial Handicap.

The weather looks set to pleasantly warm and sunny for the rest of the week so racing will be likely taking place on good or quicker ground at the various tracks.

Before I look at this weekend’s action let’s look back at last week’s action and a few horses that could be worth adding to your trackers.  

It’s that time in the time in the flat season when I start to look at 2-year-old who go into the notebook for next season but there are still some flat handicapper’s worth adding for races in the coming weeks.

This weeks eyecatchers are from Doncaster and Irish Champions Weekend at Leopardstown & the Curragh. .

Eyecatchers – W/e September 15^th

Wednesday 11^th September

Doncaster

Fox Tal – Andrew Balding

The 3-year-old returned from a 319-day absence to land a 1m 2f Class 2 conditions race. The colt clearly hasn’t been the easiest to train given his long layoff.

Sent off an unfancied 16/1. Travelling well in the rear, it looked like he night not a clear run coming to the final furlong but once he got into the clear, he showed a good burst of speed to come clear inside the final furlong.

He looked a bit awkward when asked for his effort but that probably was down to inexperience on his part. Physically he looks capable of more improvement and with racing experience can make up into a Group horse as a 4-year-old.

Thursday 12^th September

Doncaster

Special Secret – Eve Johnson Houghton

The daughter of Kodiac looked like she was on a competitive mark for her nursery debut and so it proved. 

The filly was a little keen in the early stages of the race  but was keeping on nicely from the rear inside the final furlong to finish ¾ length 4^th, behind stablemate Graceful Magic in the opening race of day two of the St Leger Festival.

The 6 ½ f trip was just too short for her and she can win a handicap of her present mark of 81 when stepped up distance.

Tommy G – Jim Goldie

The 6-year-old didn’t break to well from the stalls in the Lady Rider 6f handicap. Held up in the rear he was travelling better than most of his rivals, but behind a wall of horses, coming to two out. He had to switched to the stands side to make his effort and made good headway under a hands and heels ride to finish 7^th of 16, beaten 3 ¼ lengths. 

He was third in the Goodwood Stewards Cup consolation race; he remains on a competitive mark. Eight in last years Bronze Cup at Ayr on heavy ground, he can race off 8lb lower in this year’s race should he take up his entry and will benefit from stronger handling.

Friday 13^th September

Doncaster

Not really an eyecatcher as such but I liked the performance of the Roger Varian trained Molatham in winning the 7f ‘Flying Scotsman’ Listed race. The son of Night Of Thunder had won York’s valuable Convivial Maiden Stakes on his previous start and he ran out a good winner here.

They didn’t go much of a gallop and it turned into a 2 ½ f sprint to the line. Showing signs of greenness when hitting the front, he ran out a decent winner at the finish. He didn’t blow  me away like Pinatubo was to do on Sunday but he’s got a good professional attitude and has the scope to do well as a 3-year-old.

Saturday 14^th September

Leopardstown

The 1m 5f “Petingo” Handicap attracted a competitive field of 17 runners. Th form of the race looks strong and should be worth following over the coming weeks.

Progressive filly Kastasa kept finding for pressure inside the final furlong to hold off her rivals to land the valuable prize.

Buildmeupbuttercup ran a big race for Willie Mullins to finish second. Runner up in the 2m 4f Ascot Stakes Handicap at Royal meeting she stays well and looks to have a favourites chance in next month’s Cesarewitch Stakes for which she is a best priced 10/1 with Paddy Power.

Two to really catch the eye, however, were Buildmeupbuttercup’s stablemate Nessum Dorma and the fast finishing 4^th Edification.

Edification – Mark Fahey

Did best of those drawn in a single figure draw when finishing best of all to take 4^th. Twice a winner this season, this was a career best on the flat by the 6-year-old who’s now 1 win from 4 runs 3 placed when racing over 1m 4f +.

He’s got plenty of ability and holds his form well but does need things to fall right. Being covered up in a big field suited him well here and he should remain competitive in big field handicaps like this.

Nessum Dorma – Willie Mullins

The 6-year-old ran a cracker returning from a 314-day break to grab 5^th. He was tapped for speed coming to three furlongs but stayed on all the way to the line. He’s only had seven starts on the flat and remains unexposed over staying trips, was 4^th of 24 in last year’s Irish Cesarewitch over 2m. The market expected a big run from him, sent off 8/1, and looks on a workable mark going forward.

Ice Cold In Alex – Ken Condon

The five-year-old once again ran a cracker putting in a career best to finish 3^rd of 17 in the concluding race of the Leopardstown card. A close fourth in the Irish Cambridgeshire on his previous start. He deserves to get his head in front in one of these big field handicaps and if he gets luck in the run and good ground he might do so before the end of the season.

Sunday 15^th September

Curragh

The concluding race of Irish Champions Weekend the 1m 2f “Northfields” Handicap looks strong form to follow. One Cool Poet, who had remarkably won three races at the Galway Festival  came from last to first to win the race but there were two runners who finished behind him that interest me.

Tudor City – Tony Martin

Recent Galway Hurdle winner Tudor City bounced back to form after a disappointing run at York to finish 4^th of 16.  The 7-year-old ran on all the way to the line but just found 1m 2f a bit short in this company.

A winner over 1m 3 ½ f he stays 1m 4f, onn the evidence of this run he can land a decent handicap on the flat when stepped back up in distance.

Nickajack Cave – Ger Lyons

A winner at Navan back in June, off 8lb lower, before a close 2^nd of 14 over C&D. The 3-year-old had little chance at the weights when 5th in a Group 3 over C&D last month.  Back in handicap company he did much better.  He seemed to be travelling well on the inside two furlongs out but got caught behind horses, By the time he found racing room inside the final furlong he had no chance of getting to the first four home.

The gelding has only had six career starts so could yet rate higher. Not certain to stay further than 1m 2f but he races like a step up in distance would suit.

Any selections for day one of Ayr’s Western Meeting will be up on Thursday morning.

Cheers

John

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Hi all,

Just to let you know this week’s notebook will be with you later this evening, along with some selections from the first day of Ayr’s Western Meeting.

I also have an each-way selection running at Sandown this afternoon.

Sandown

4:35 – It will be interesting to see what impact the wind-op has had on the John Gosden trained Sucellus. The colt has only had the four career starts. This will be the top weights first since May but he looks on a competitive mark if the procedure has had the desired effect.

My each-way preference is for the Marronnier.  A winner over C&D back in July, he’s since gone onto to finish runner-up over C&D, off 1lb lower, before a slightly below par run when 5^th of 7 here. Trainer has said that he felt they rode the aggressively last time and he’s been given a 41-day break to get over those exertions.

The gelding has only had seven starts and if you ignore his last run, he was essentially a progressive horse who can rate higher than his present mark of 86.

The 15/2 available this morning looks solid each way value to me given his liking for C&D.

Marrionnier – 15/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes – each way

Cheers

John

Hi all,

Current Option saved the day with a ‘gutsy’ win in the lucky last at Leopardstown yesterday. A Momentofmadness ran a cracker to finish second In the Portland Handicap and how unlucky was Deirdre in the Irish Champions. Aside from a couple of runners I was pleased with yesterday’s effort.

On to Sunday and Irish Champions Weekend moves to the Curragh for Irish St Leger Day and whole host of other top class and competitive races.

Curragh

1:20 – Irish Stallion Farms EBF “Bold Lad” Sprint Handicap (Premier Handicap) – 6f

The action gets underway with a 25 runners sprint handicap. The last seven winners of the races shared the following:

Age: 3yo to 5yo

Wins At Track: 0 to 1

Wins At Distance: 1+

I’m concentrating on the younger horses with my three against the field being Make A Challenge, Master Matt and Miss Jabeam.

Make a Challenge, the 4-year-old has won his last three races going up 19lb in the weights. Last time out he beat Master Matt a neck, off 4lb lower, over C&D 30-days ago. Joey Sheridan who won on the horse at Galway takes off a valuable 7lb.

Master Matt, a winner here over 5f last month followed that up with a close second behind Make A Challenge. Only 6^th of 12^th at Cork, back over 5f, 24 hours later although that race probably came to quick after his game effort the day before. The 3-year-ol do better today on a track that suits and he won’t mind any rain that falls either.

Miss Jabeam, is 2lbout of the handicap but Nathan Crosse takes of a valuable 5lb which negates that. The 3-year-old has improved in big field handicap this season, winning two of her last four. Two starts back she was 3^rd of 23 over C&D off 5lb lower. The filly was doing her best work at the finish when 5^th of 12 at Navan when dropped back to 5f. Return to 6f will be in her favour. Suspicion that she wouldn’t want the ground to ease to much before post time, but she won’t be far away.

Make a Challenge – 11/2 @ William Hill

Master Matt – 10/1 @ William Hill & Ladbrokes – each way (both paying 5 places 1/5 odds)

Miss Jabeam – 16/1 @ William Hill & Ladbrokes – each way (both paying 5 places 1/5 odds)

4:10 – Comer Group International Irish St. Leger (Group 1) – 1m 6f

A field of ten are declared to go post for this years Irish St Leger and it looks an ultra-competitive renewal.

Last years Irish Derby winner Latrobe and second in this race last year, albeit a much weaker race, was a decisive winner of a Group 3 at Leopardstown 38-days ago. Interesting that Donnacha O’Brien stays in the saddle rather than ride one of his father’s runners in the race. The 4-year-old has each way claims again

Search For A Song, is the only 3-year-old in the field. The filly shaped like she would appreciate 1m 6f when winning the Listed Galtres Stakes at York last month. Needs to find plenty more improvement on what she’s shown so far but given this is only her 5^th career start such progress could be forthcoming. Like fast ground so any rain would probably be a negative.

Kew Garden’s is the class pick. Last years English St Leger winner and Arc 7^th is having his first start since finishing runner-up in the Coronation Cup on Oaks Day. His long absence has to be seen as a slight negative.

Latrobe 10/1 @ Bet365 & Coral – each way

6:00 – Irish Stallion Farms EBF “Northfields” Handicap (Premier Handicap) – 1m 2f

Seventeen go to post for this valuable handicap with €88,500 on offer to the winner.

Hamley & Tudor City were first & second in this race 12 months ago. Hamley won with a bit in hand that day and is just 2lb higher this time around. Doesn’t come into the race in as good a form as she did last year. However, there are excuses for her last two runs. Had a tough draw and a mile was to short at Galway last time and prior to that she was undone by a slow early pace when 4^th of 9 at at Leopardstown. Tudor City won the Galway Hurdle last month but disappointed back on the level at York last time. Hamley is almost double the price of Tudor City and I think the mare can finish ahead of her old rival again.

Nickajack Cove, a winner at Navan back in June, off 8lb lower, has only had five career starts and could be able of better than he’s shown so far. The 3-year-old put in a career best when beaten ¾ length into second over C&D on his next start, finishing two places ahead of Hamley. Has to give the mare 7lb for 1 ½ lengths today. Had little chance at the weights when 5^th in a Group 3 over C&D last month

Cuban Hope is another 3-year-old with some upside. Hasn’t run for 60-days but if in the same form as for his last win at Fairyhouse warrants serious consideration.

Numerian’s 3^rd of 25 in the Irish Cambridgeshire was given a boost when the runner-up won at Leopardstown yesterday. Steps up to 1m 2f for the first time today and could well improve for it. Looks more than capable of landing a valuable handicap like this but has been well found in the betting.

War Diary, has just had the five career starts and remains open to further progress. A winner here over 1m 4f two starts back, he ran just as well when 4^th of 12 at Galway last time. Not sure the drop to 1m 2f will play to his strengths. For all that he needs respecting although stall 17 might be difficult to overcome.

Great Grey looked set to win when taking the lead inside the final furlong at Leopardstown 31-days ago but was outbattled by the eventual winner. Looks competitive on form and has each way claims once more.

Insignia Of Rank always needs respecting at the Curragh, 2 wins from 5 runs, including 1 win over C&D and he’s 2 wins from 9 runs 3 placed in field sizes 16+.  Comes into the race after finishing well down the field at Listowel last Monday. Hard to know what sort of form he’s in but he’s got a chance.

Verdict: Toughest race of the day. I have a long shortlist for the race but have a slight preference for Cuban Hope, Hamley, Great Grey and War Diary.

Cuban Hope 14/1 @ Ladbrokes & Coral – each way (paying 4 places ¼ odds)

Hamley – 16/1 @ Bet365- each way (paying 4 places ¼ odds)

War Diary – 12/1 @ William Hill – each way (paying 4 places ¼ odds)

I will be back on Thursday with selections from Ayr’s Western meeting, if not before.

Cheers

John

Hi all,

The final day of the St Leger Festival which has been a poor three days racing so far. I will be having my say on the meeting in Monday’s Daily Punt.

It’s the final English Classic of the season with the latest running over Britain’s oldest Classic. I think the race and the meeting needs an impressive winner. Hopefully we will get it with Logician.

Over the Irish Sea, its Irish Champions Weekend at Leopardstown. Some great racing saves the day as the Doncaster card with the odd exception is tepid.  

I have selections from Doncaster, Chelmsford and Leopardstown.

Doncaster

1:50 – William Hill Portland Handicap (Class 2) – 5 ½ f

At last a decent sized field for a handicap at Doncaster this week. With a maximum field of 22 declared to go post. Plenty in with a chance as you would expect. Here are some on my short list.

A Momentofmadness, won this race last year off 4lb higher. Not in great form in 2019 but his 6th of 22 at York last month, beaten just ½ lengths was a step back in the right direction. This trip is ideal and even off the back of that run, he’s still 4lbs lower than last year. William Buick who gets on so well with horse stays in the saddle.

Wentworth Falls, three of his top six RPR’s have come at Doncaster and all of then have come on good or quicker ground. Not won since April 2017, 2lb lower today, but has run plenty of good races in defeat the meantime. Was beaten just a neck here back in May off 3lb higher and was 3rd of 21 in this race 12 months ago. A reproduction of either of those runs would see the 7-year-old get into the places.

Gunmetal, remains 2lb higher than when running out a 2 ½ length winner last year’s Great St Wilfrid Handicap at Ripon, beating Dakota Gold in the process. No wins this season but he was only beaten 1 ½ lengths into 4th behind Duke Of Firenze over 5f at York back in May, off 4lb higher. Before finishing 6th of 26 in the Wokingham Handicap at Royal Ascot, doing best of the group that went far side. Has no dropped to a winnable mark and a stiff 5 ½ f on quick ground could be ideal for the 6-year-old.

Bielsa, it doesn’t to take genius to pick this one. The[VV1]  4-year-old made it 3 wins from 3 runs when winning a competitive 6f Class 3 handicap at Thirsk 15-days ago. Up 7lb but he’s progressive and looks the right favourite.

Makanah, shaped with arguably the most promise at York. He was slowly away that day and did well to get as close as he did the winner. The extra ½ should suit and he did win here over the minimum trip last summer. The 4-year-old remains progressive and is another with a good chance. He would be a pick, but Stall 1 is a concern with stalls 1 to 6 being 0 winners from 55 runners 5 placed in the past ten-years.

Bielsa -13/2 @ Bet365 & Betway

A Momentofmadness – 7/1  @ Coral & Ladbrokes

3:35 – William Hill St Leger Stakes (Group 1) (British Champions Series) (Colts & Fillies) – 1m 6 ½ f

Eight go to post, three trained by Aidan O’Brien, for what looks an unappealing final classic of the season.

Logician made it 4 from 4 when running out the comfortable winner of the Great Voltigeur Stakes at York. He can become the first winner of that race to do the double since Lucarno back in 2007. Should stay the extra 2 ½ f and will appreciate Doncaster’s galloping track. At evens or bigger he looks decent value too. I can’t really look beyond the favourite.

Chelmsford

2:45 – Compared to Doncaster this is a competitive handicap.  Piece Of History is an intriguing runner for Saeed Bin Suroor. A winner of his first two starts last year, including here over a mile. Best performance of 2018 came when he was a ½ length second to Auxerre at Kempton last October off today’s mark. Not so good on his two starts this season but a return to the synthetics will suit. The 4-year-old has only had the eight career starts so remains capable of better. He will do for me.

Piece Of History – 5/1 @ Bet365 & William Hill

Leopardstown

2:30 – Irish Stallion Farms EBF “Petingo” Handicap (Premier Handicap) – 1m 5f

The first of two big field handicaps on the card and a field of 18 are set to go to post.

Kastasa comes into the race looking for the hat trick after wins at Sligo and the Curragh 22-days ago. The filly only got up close to home to win by ½ length. Up 8lb but the lightly races 3-year-old is going the right way and on the evidence of her Curragh will relish the extra furlong of this race.

Trossachs, won over C&D three starts back. That was the 3-year-old’s third win of the season. Was runner-up to Perfect Tapatino, off 1lb lower 31-days ago. Looks sure to run his race and is one for the shortlist.

Willie Mullins who has won this race three times since the 2012. His two in this year’s race are Buildmeupbuttercup & Nessun Dorma and both are contenders. Buildmeupbuttercup had no problem with the drop back to 1m 4f when winning a Galway maiden 45-days ago. The 5-year-old is strong contender. Nessun Dorma is having his first start for 314 -days. Has won fresh so there shouldn’t be any issues fitness wise. Capable of going close on his best form and can get into the money.

Machine Learner was only beaten a head in this race in 2017 and is 2lb lower this time around. Has been knocking on the door on his last two runs with placed efforts at Sandown. Last time out he didn’t get the clearest of runs inside the final furlong and had to settle for third at the line. The 6-year-old looks set for a big run here for a trainer who has his horses in great form.

Machine Learner – 9/1 – Gen

Nessun Dorma – 16/1 @ Coral & William Hill – each way (both paying 4 places ¼ odds)

4:15- Irish Champion Stakes (Group 1) – 1m 2f

There’s plenty of depth and it’s a good renewal of the Irish Champions Stakes.

Magical should get a good tow into the race from stablemates Hunting Horn & Magic Wand. Has finished runner-up to Enable on her last two starts and runner-up to Crystal Ocean at Royal Ascot. The 4-year-old is a Group1 filly and has the best form on offer. Headman won the London Gold Cup back in May and has been well placed to win Group 2 & Group 3 contests at Saint-Cloud and latterly Deauville 30-days ago. Has a bit find with Magical on form but looks capable of holding his own in Group 1 company.  Madhmoon was runner-up in the Epsom Derby and 1m 2f looks like it will be his optimum trip. Elarqam has been supplemented for the race and was 3^rd to Japan in the International Stakes at York last time. Won’t be far away if reproducing his York run. Japanese raider Deirdre showed her Royal Ascot running, on soft ground, to be all wrong when coming off a strong pace to win the Group 1 Nassau Stakes at Goodwood 44-day ago. The stronger the pace and the quicker the ground the better the mare is. Leopardstown should suit her better than Goodwood and she needs respecting.  I don’t think she deserves to be 14/1.

Deirdre – 14/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes – each way

6:00 – Irish Stallion Farms EBF “Sovereign Path” Handicap (Premier Handicap) – 7f

Seventeen are set to go to post for this valuable handicap.

Jassaar won the Irish Cambridgshire 15-days ago. He’s going the right way and if the drop back to 7f isn’t an inconvenience looks sure to go close. Current Option was runner-up in that race. He gets 6lb from the winner for ¾ length and could be better suited by the drop back to 7f of the pair. Three-year-olds have won five of the last ten running’s of the race which is another positive to the horses chance.

Crochet, trained by Joseph O’Brien, has each way claims on her best form. Probably needs them to go very hard over 7f and may better over a mile. A useful 5lb claimer takes the ride and she should give it a good go.

Admirality & Ice Cold In Alex give Middleham Park Racing a strong hand in the race. The former was 3^rd of 17 in the Bunbury Cup over today’s trip and a reproduction of that run puts the 5-year-old very much in the mix. Trainer Roger Fell won this race in 2017 but is just 1 winner from 25 runners in the past 14-days. Ice Cold In Alex has been knocking on the door in big field handicaps this season. The 5-year-old finished 4^th of 25 in The Irish Cambridgeshire on his last start and won’t be winning out of turn. A C&D winner last year and the quicker they go up front the better for this hold up horse.

Silverkode is another who likes to come off the pace. The 5-year-old’s two best RPR’s have come in this race in 2017 and again 12 months ago. Last year he was beaten just a neck into second and can now race off 8lb lower. Return to 7f will suit as will the quicker ground. Not really at his best on four starts this season but was a decent 3^rd of 11 at Cork back in May. Looks to have laid out for the race and he’s handicapped to win.

Current Option – 11/2 @ Paddy Power & BetVictor

Silverkode – 6/1 – Gen

Ice Cold In Alex – 15/2 @ Coral & William Hill

Cheers

John

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Hi all,

Doncaster St Leger Festival – Day 3

The management of Doncaster racecourse must disappointed with field sizes for their Class 2 handicaps. There are some really noncompetitive races from a betting perspective today but I have still managed to find three selections.

2:10 – Angel’s Hideaway would win this with a reproduction of her 1,000 Guineas 4^th and Jersey Stakes third. However, she’s a bit to hit or miss for me and she hasn’t run well on either start since Royal Ascot, albeit they were at Goodwood. This track will suit her better.

The favourite is the Roger Varian filly Farzeen. She’s won her last two starts. The latter of those wins came in a Kempton novice last month. At Kempton she looked a smart filly in the making and you can see why connections are giving it a go in a Group 3 today. Connections have some reservations about the quick ground and she by no means a certain runner.

A stiff 7f looks ideal for Di Fede. She’s consistent and arguably put in a career best when a 2 length 4 of 12 to Suedois in a Group 3 at Goodwood 19-days ago. I had the 4-year-old down as a filly at her best on soft ground, but her trainer Ralph Beckett doesn’t seem perturbed as he’s told the Racing Post “The ground is no concern, she doesn’t worry about anything.”. Three-year-old’s have won eight out of the last ten running’s of the race but that age group has had 67% of the total runners.

Di Fede – 6/1 @ Bet365

2:40 – The Mallard Handicap has had an average field size of 11 in the past ten years. This year’s renewal has attracted just six runners. Saroog comes into the race on hat trick after wins at Ascot and Newmarket. He’s capable of more improvement but 11/8 doesn’t appeal.

Mark Johnston has trained the winner of this race twice since 2012 and he saddles my idea of the winner in Charles Kingsley.  A three-time winner this season, two of them coming in races with field sizes 7 or less.  The 3-year-old has won on quick ground, stays the trip and is just 2lb above his last winning mark.

Charles Kingsley – 5/1 @ Paddy Power & William Hill

5:30 – Effective over 6f/7f this intermediate distance could well suit Reputation who was beaten just ½ length into second in a better race than this at Newmarket back in July and now race off 4lb lower.  Not so good on three subsequent starts but there have been excuses with the all-weather and soft ground not being to his liking. Trainer Ruth Carr is 0 winners from 21 runners in the past 14-days which is a big concern but at around 12/1 and with 8 runners I can chance the stable form each way.

Reputation – 14/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes – each way

Cheers

John