Hi all,
Nice to end the weekend with a profitable day courtesy of Lord Of the Island’s win at Sandown and Dark Flame’s second placed effort in the veterans chase.
No Selections today and I’m not expecting much action on the selections front until Friday and the start of Cheltenham’s three-day November Meeting.
Keep an eye on your inbox for any updates. My weekly eyecatcher’s email will be with you on Wednesday, if there are any.
Cheers
John
Morning all,
A bitterly disappointing day. Two seconds but poor runs from Clan Legend in particular and my two selections in the Badger Beers Chase.
12:45 – Lord Of The Island is lightly raced for an 11-year-old, this is just his 14th career start. Won a a Grade 3 handicap hurdle here over 3m, on heavy, back in February 2017. Just three runs since but showed when 4th of 13 at Exeter in February that he can be competitive off his present mark. Might prefer further but with the ground on the heavy side it wll bring his stamina into play. First run for 234-days but the trainers runners continue in good form and he’s 8-29 28% +23.13 with runners at the track in the past 5-years.
3:30 – It might be worth chancing Dark Flame who returns from 736-day break here. The 10-year-old returns to action off what looks a tempting handicap. Just the six races over fences he’s got the least mileage of the field of this field of veterans. Won the novices handicap chase on this card in 2016 off 217-day break. It will be interesting to see how he goes in the market. Clearly you must take on trust that some of his old ability remains but if it does, he would be a threat to all off 124.
2:45 – Pilgrim Way returned from a mammoth 995-day lay off when finishing runner-up at Cork before going onto win over 2m 4f back at the same venue 19-days later. That win marked the 8-year-old down as horse capable of more progress. Up 9lb for his Cork success and back at 2m, might be better over further, but we know he runs well after an absence and the going will at least bring his stamina into play.
Cheers
John
Hi all,
Well we got a winner out of Dundalk last evening and a couple of thirds, so it was an interesting trial that’s worth preserving with next Friday.
On to Saturday’s action. As was expected we lost the last meeting of the flat season with the abandonment of Doncaster. So, the focus is firmly on jumping with the Badger Ales Handicap Chase & Grade 2 Elite Hurdle the highlights of a seven-race card at Wincanton. There’s also jumps action at Aintree, Kelso and Naas.
3:00 – Unibet Elite Hurdle (Grade 2) – 1m 7 ½ f
I’m a big fan of Fusil Raffles who could well be a serious Champion Hurdle. He’s priced up like he’s a good thing at 1/2. I just prefer Grand Sancy at the prices. The 5-year-old really likes it around here form figures 2211, the last of those wins came in the Kingwell Hurdle over C&D in February. All four of his career wins have come on good ground and although he fell at Kempton on his seasonal return he’s normally been a sound jumper. If there are any chinks in the favourites armoury or he lacks 100% fitness, then he can exploit them.
3:35 – Badger Beers Silver Trophy Handicap Chase (Listed Race) – 3m 1f
The race of the day and a field of 14 are set to go to post for this year’s renewal. I like five here. Present Man, White Moon, Sumkindofking. Beau Du Brizais and Just A Sting.
Present Man won this last year on his seasonal return and bids for back to back wins off just 4lb higher. Lack of a recent run isn’t a negative as his form figures either first time up or after a 121+days lay off are 12111. He has four wins on good ground but also handles softer and is 4-10 here at Wincanton. So, the 9-year-old ticks the all-important boxes marked going, course and distance and will be fully primed up to run well.
White Moon was very in and out over fences last season, not really building winning on his Exeter win. Looked to be on a competitive mark on his seasonal reappearance here over 1f further 13-days. The 7-year-old travelled well through that race and looked to have the race at his mercy when falling at the last. The handicapper has raised him 5lb but he remains on a competitive mark and looks sure to go close with a clear round.
Sumkindofking was 2 ½ lengths second behind Present Man in this race 12 months ago. The 8-year-old made a satisfactory seasonal reappearance when 4th in the race where White Moon fell. Should be all the better for that run but needs the ground to stay on the good side. If it does he should be in the money once again.
Beau Du Brizais finished runner-up in the Wincanton race. He’s a consistent handicap chaser and last time was career best. The handicapper has nudged him up another 4lb which makes life tougher but he’s another with each way claims if the ground stays good.
Just A Sting has just had the five starts over fences winning twice. Didn’t build on his first two starts last season and ended the season pulling up in the Bet365 Gold Cup at Sandown. Seems best in the early part of the season and his form figures on his first start are 121. Well suited to good or good to soft ground and should stay 3m 1f. First time cheekpieces are applied and a big run can be expected. Even if the trainer’s runners haven’t really hit top gear so far this autumn.
2:05 – Virgin Bet Handicap Chase (Class 2) – 2m 4f
War Sound won this 12-months ago off 2lb lower. The 10-year-old wasn’t as good four subsequent starts but he’s well suited to flat track like Aintree and of course goes well off a lay off. Shouldn’t be far away at the finish.
Cepage is having his first run since finishing runner-up to Frodon in last December’s Caspian Caviar Gold Cup at Cheltenham. He’s 4lb higher now but looks to have a favourites chance despite top weight of 11-12. Handles soft ground well and as he showed at Cheltenham, he’s goes well fresh.
The Russian Doyen won two of his four starts as novice last season, including is seasonal reappearance. First start since finishing 4th of 20 in the Close Brothers Handicap Chase at the Cheltenham Festival. Capable of more improvement as a second season chaser and should go.
1:55 – I’m taking Clan Legend to cause a bit of s surprise in this Class 3 handicap chase.This son of Midnight Legend has been a consistent handicap chaser, although he was below par on his three starts last season. The key to the 9-year-old chance is soft or heavy ground. When heavy is in the going description he’s 6 wins from 15 runs +13.58. He also seems to come to hand in the early part of the season. up until last season he had won on seasonal reappearance in the each of the last three years and his form figures on soft/heavy ground during November/December are 1111415.Last season’s below par runs mean he’s dropped back down to a winnable mark and his trainer has been among the winners.
Cheers
John
Hi all,
Dashel Drasher ran a cracker to finish second yesterday but was not match for The Champ who put in one of the best chasing displays by a novice this season. Chef D’Equipe almost landed us a 10/1 winner but failed by a head to overhaul Azzerti. Fair play to David Maxwell who showed how strong he can be in a finish, albeit his style is somewhat rustic.
Plenty of racing today but it’s quantity rather than quality. I’m getting into Friday nights at Dundalk. I used to love the track but for the last couple of seasons, when I have dabbled my efforts have been dismal. However, for those interested I have four selections running this evening. As you will note the staking advice reflects my confidence until I know I have managed to get a handle on how the form is going.
6:15 – Eacharn’s two career wins have come here and he ran well to finish 3rd of 14 over C&D 9-day ago. That was the 5-year-old’s second run after a summer break, and he should be spot on for today. Good draw in stall one for a prominent runner and he’s now 2lb below his last winning mark.
6:45 –The mare Clonville has yet to win on the all-weather 0 wins from 5 runs but she put in a career best here 9-days ago when a staying on 3rd of 14 in a similar race. That was her first start back from a 63-day break. She was drawn out in stall 14 that day and the two who finished in front of her were in stalls 1 & 2. In the circumstance it was probably a slightly better run than her position suggests. Clearly, she’s not the most consistent of horses but she will pop up here over the coming weeks off her low mark.
7:45 – Sirjack Thomas was having his first start on the all-weather when 4th of 14 here 21-day ago. He was doing his best work at the finish over 7f so the step up to a mile should be fine. Has a decent enough draw in stall six and is expected to go close.
8:15 – Trainer Denis Coakley & Ross Coakley have a good record at Dundalk when teaming up in handicap races and they combined for success here on Wednesday. They team up with Park Row in this 1m 4f handicap. The 9-year-old has won six time at the track, including four over C&D. Shaped as if another win wasn’t far away when 4th of 13 here 14-days ago. Back up to 1m 4f this evening and should bang there from what looks a winnable mark.
Cheers
John
Hi all,
Not sure what happened yesterday but was it was a disappointing day. On to Thursday and couple of selections running at Newbury.
2:05 – A beginners’ chase over 2m 6 ½ f.Six runners have been declared with The Champ the hot favourite to make a winning start to fences. A winner of the Challow Hurdle here last December he then went onto finish runner-up in the Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival before landing a Group 1 at Aintree in April. No problem with the trip, won over 3m ½ f at Aintree, for the 7-year-old who will be tough to beat.
Beakstown was runner-up to Sam Spinner on his chase debut at Wetherby 22-days and the winner has gone onto win again at the weekend. A Grade 2 winning hurdler last season but has a bit to fins with the favourite. His best form has come on good to soft/good ground and is expected to do very well in the novice division this season. His chase experience could prove vital in closing stages of the race.
Dashel Drasher is a fascinating runner. The 6-year-old was well placed to win his last four starts over hurdles although he didn’t win at Graded level last season is rated 4lb higher according to Racing Post Ratings (RPR’s). Seasonal debut and first run over the larger obstacles. Made all for his wins over hurdles and could have a solo out in front today.
3:40 – Mr David Maxwell’s jockey style might not suit everyone, but he’s improved plenty and as he proved at Wincanton recently his strength in the saddle can get a horse home. He rides Chef D’Equipe in this handicap chase. The 7-year-old was runner-up in this race 12 months ago and can race off 2lb lower this time around. Would liked to have seen more from him on his seasonal reappearance, when down the field at Wetherby, but I’m expecting better today.
Cheers
John
Hi all,
I thought Dolos might get up but fair play to Janika who has improved for the summer break. Two interesting sprint handicaps on the all-weather this evening at Kempton and Wolverhampton.
6:40 – Buridan & Warsaw Road were first & second in a handicap at Newacstle 15-days ago. Both should go well again. Although the winner was having his first start for 80-days and first start on the all-weather. Warsaw Road only gets 1lb for a neck defeat from Buridan and that one is unexposed on the synthetics. Intisaab was 6th in the Newcastle race and gets 5lb from the winner for a 2 ¼ length beating. Finished a close-up second on his only start here back in November 2017 off 11lb higher. Needs all the cards to fall right but handicapped to go well if in the mood. Pass The Vino was in great form in the summer winning at Newmarket and finishing runner-up into valuable handicaps at Newmarket & Ascot. Not so good on his last three starts but soft ground wouldn’t have suited him at York last time and the previous run was on the dirt in Korea. Won on the tapeta at Wolverhampton back in March so should be fine on surface.
6:55 – A Class 3 handicap over 5f. Rocket Action won over C&D two starts back, off 6lb lower, and improved further when runner-up at Chelmsford 46-days ago. Remains on an upward curve and looks to have good draw in stall 2. Orvar & The Daley Express were 3rd & 4th in a big field handicap at York 26-days ago. Orvar has only had two starts here, winning over C&D in February 2018, off today’s mark. The Daley Express won over C&D (Class 4) two starts back off 5lb lower but showed at York that he remains in good form and has a similar chance to Orvar at the weights. This is a class higher than his last win here, but the 5-year-old remains capable of going close from stall 3.
Cheers
John
Hi all,
The delayed weekly notebook is double action-packed edition of eyecatcher’s from the previous two weeks British & Irish racing.
Latest eyecatcher to get into the winner enclosure was Gumball who landed the Listed Sodexo Handicap Hurdle at Ascot on Saturday.
There are more Gumball’s below, indeed there are 12 for your trackers although there could have been a fair few more. You can tell the jumps season has now hit top gear.
The 5-year-old won a novice hurdle at Huntingdon last season, a track the gelding also won his bumper at, before ending his season when 4th of 10, under his penalty, at Newbury back in March. Returning from a 217-day absence. Coming from well back he made steady headway and was running on after the last to snatch 4th. Saw out the 2m5f here well and looks capable of satying further. Sent off joint 6/1 favourite which shows that connections think they have a horse on a winnable mark.
The 6-year-old has looked progressive when winning a novice hurdle at Ludlow last December before following up on his handicap hurdle debut at Kempton a month later.
Oakley was having his first start for 286-days when finishing 3rd of 13 behind Benny’s Bridge in the 2m ½ f handicap hurdle. The handicapper had raised him just 5lb for his Kempton success. Ran like the run was needed and should improve plenty for it. The son of Oscar should get a further than 2m and remains one to be interested off his present mark if staying over hurdles.
The 10-year-old was having his first start since unseating his rider at the last in the Scottish Grand National in April. He made a good return to action when 3rd of 15 behind The Conditional in the opening handicap chase on Cheltenham’s Saturday card. It’s a track he goes well, three of his career wins have come here. The last of which came off today’s mark last December.
His record in field sizes 9 & under are 7 wins from 13 runs 54% +22.62 9 placed 69%.
Whilst he run well in big fields his overall record is 1 win from 27 runs 4% -19. 8 placed 30%.
The veteran is handicapped to win again when he gets his optimum conditions.
The first Cheltenham Meeting of the new winter jumps season concluded with what could turn out to be a very good bumper.
The one to take the eye before the race was Barbados Bucks. The 4-year-old a full brother to winning hurdler Barbados Blue and half-brother to winning chaser More Buck’s was still in contention coming to three out but a combination of race fitness and the heavy ground tolled on him in the final stages and he eventually finished a tired 7th. Weak the market before the race which suggests the run was needed.
Given his siblings were at their best on good ground underfoot conditions wouldn’t have been to his likening. He should come on plenty with this run under his belt and will do better on better ground going forward.
Won a hunter chase on his debut for trainer Henry Oliver in May he then went on to run Brave Eagle to a nose in the valuable Summer Cup at Uttoxeter a month later. Both those runs came on good ground and his Uttoxeter performance was a career best for the 10-year-old.
Back from a 119-day absence in the veterans chase and 5lb higher than at Uttoxeter he was open to more progress than some of these veterans.
Always up with the pace, he jumped soundly and coming to the second last had all the field in trouble apart from eventual winner Burtons Well who swept by him at the last. He held on well for second and this was a nice start to the campaign. Given the quality of his jumping he’s capable of winning of these races int eh coming weeks.
In the same race, Captain Redbeard will have pleased connections in finishing 4th. The 10-year-old career record stands at 8 winners from 33 runners +26.5 15 placed but his optimum conditions seem to be distance up to 2m 7 ½ f, field sizes 9 or less and last raced within 30-days of his last start 7 wins from 13 runs 54% +40 8 placed 62%. He will be of interest with this run under his belt.
The 6-year-old will have gone into few notebooks after his win in the beginners’ chase. He clearly relished the heavy ground on his first start since April and his first run over fences.
Connections see him as a Grade 1 level in the making and the Grade 1 novices’ chase at Limerick was nominated as target by his trainer after the race. This win came over 2m 4f but he will get 3m+ with more experience.
Given his trainer isn’t a big name he could well go off at value price in better company.
I had been waiting for the 6-year-old to return to action. By Milan, out of a Presenting mare he’s certainly bred for chasing. Twice a winner over fences last season he looks the type of handicap chaser Gordon Elliott/Gigginstown excel with.
Sent off 25/1 in a four-runner race, not surprisingly he wasn’t competitive on his first start for 189-days. All the better for this run. He’s one to look out for in “Big Handicap Chases” this winter.
Took advantage of a lenient handicap mark on his first start for trainer Henry Oliver, when winning an amateur riders’ race at Ludlow in February. He improved further on his next start when finishing 2nd of 22 in the Kim Muir Handicap Chase at the Cheltenham Festival.
Ended last season with a below par effort at Ayr on ground that was probably quick enough for the 8-year-old.
Making his seasonal return after a 201-day absence over a trip (2m 4f) which seemed to short of his best. Well he ran well to finish 3rd of 12.
Will be all the better for his seasonal reappearance and I don’t think we have seen the best of the 8-year-old yet. He’s one to note for the rest of the season and has a decent handicap pot in him this season.
A winner of a soft ground novice hurdle at Fontwell last December. The 5-year-old was described by his trainer as “a big backward horse” after his hurdle success. Jumped soundly when 4th of 6 on his chase debut at Uttoxeter last month. He built on that promise when runner up to Doctor Dex in the novices’ handicap chase.
No match for the winner on the day he still managed to finish five lengths of the third. Softer ground than he faced here shouldn’t be an issue and he remains a work in progress over fences. I will be surprised if he can’t win something similar especially when his stable is in better form than at present.
Won a juvenile hurdle at Exeter last November and put in a career best when 5th of 21 in the Fred Winter Handicap Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival. Ended last season when down the field in a Grade 1 at Aintree. The return to handicaps was expected to suit the 4-year-old.
Travelling well through the race he looked to be going best coming to three out but once coming under pressure he faded coming to the last and eventually finished 4th of 7 behind the useful winner Elvis Mail. He shaped like he was need of his first run 212-days and will remain on a competitive mark.
The 7-year-old had won a good ground C&D novice chase in January before a poor effort at Newcastle on his last start in February. Back for his first run for 252-days he put in a good effort to finish 3rd of 9 behind comfortable win Kapgarry.
Running well for a long way and was still bang there until headed at the last, only losing second in the final strides. This was only his eighth career start, four over fences, and he remains open to further progress.
A run on such testing ground was likely needed given his long absence and it’s worth noting he’s 3 wins from 4 runs 3 placed when running between 31 to 45-days since his last run. There are more races to be won with the gelding who remains capable of better over fences.
There should a few winners to come out of the novices’ handicap chase won by Two For Gold. One such winner should be Chapel Stile. The 7-year-old was returning from 562-day break here and ran a cracker to finish 3rd of 10 on his chase debut.
A three-time winner over hurdles on good & soft ground at around 3m, today’s distance would have been on the short side for the gelding for a half-brother to Grand National third Rathvindon and indeed he was doing all this best work at the finish.
Given his long absence from the track there would be a danger that he may ‘bounce’ on his next start. However, there is no denying he starts his chase career on what looks workable mark. He will win his share of races over the winter over further than 2m 4f, if he keeps sound.
Cheers
John
Hi all,
Master of Reality came within a head of giving Joseph O’Brien a second win in the Melbourne Cup unfortunately he was deemed to interfered with the eventual fourth and was demoted to that position after a steward’s inquiry.
That’s racing but as long as you were with the bookies paying four places or first past the past you landed a nice little each way bet as Master Of Reality was returned at 25/1 for the ‘race that stops a nation’.
Let’s hope for better fortune on what looks a decent card at Exeter with the feature race being the Coral Haldon Gold Cup.
2:10 – Coral Haldon Gold Cup (A Limited Handicap Chase) (Grade 2) 2m 1 ½ f
Looking at the trends all the last ten winners of the race had an OR between 147 & 157 and had at least one win on the going. That leaves us with a short list of three: Dolos, Lalor & Charbel.
Trainer Paul Nicholls has won this race three times since 2010 and he saddles Dolos in this year’s renewal. The 6-year-old won at Kempton on his final start of last season off 3lb lower. Granted this is harder but he’s ground versatile, has won on good and soft, and his two best RPR’s have come going right-handed. Has gone well off a lay off and if he’s to take advantage of what looks a tough enough mark, it may well be over today’s extended 2m 1 ½ f trip and on his first start to the season.
Charbel has the back class to win this but he maybe better of further than 2m 2f and didn’t look a winner waiting to happen on his seasonal return at Chepstow last month.
Lalor looks of more interest here. An impressive novice chase winner on his seasonal return last November. He didn’t build on that early promise on three subsequent starts. A reproduction of his win over Dynamite Dollars at Cheltenham would be good enough to win this off his present mark but you must take his well-being on trust.
3:10 – A competitive looking 3m, Class 3, handicap chase for which 13 have been declared to run. For Good Measure won his first race over fences at the ninth attempt with success at Warwick 33-days ago. That win came on good ground and although he’s twice won heavy, he may be better on a sounder surface. Now 7lb higher than at Warwick but still very much in the mix here.
Le Boizelo has run well here in the past and is at his best on rain softened ground. Down the field on his seasonal reappearance here but it’s worth noting he’s 2 wins from 3 runs 3 placed when racing within 15-days of his last start.
Perfect Candidate, a previous C&D winner, shaped like the fire remains in his belly after his 4th of 9 at Chepstow 25-days ago. Now a 12-year-old, but he’s on a good mark albeit vulnerable to younger legs.
I think 3m on soft ground are the optimum conditions for Holdbacktheriver. The 7-year-old won here over hurdles in April 2018. Just the three starts over fences, winning at Bangor but didn’t build on that promise on two subsequent runs, one over the larger obstacles. Probably on a decent mark but how fit is he for his seasonal return?
Dell’ Arca is on winnable mark but the 10-year-old is hardly the most reliable of horses. Now doubt will pop in one of theses races probably when least expected.
Verdict: For Good Measure is arguably the most reliable of the 13 runners and shouldn’t be far away. Better can be expected from Le Boizelo on his second start of the season.
Cheers
John
Hi all,
A frustrating Sunday as The Gatechecker bounced back to form to comfortably win the Cork National. As I said in the race verdict:
“don’t rule out The Gatechecker bouncing back to form”.
He was as big as 28/1 when I sent out yesterday’s e-mail and I would only advised ½pt each way but hopefully some of you took the hint even though I didn’t.
This week’s notebook will be with you over the next couple of days and it contains a few more Gumball’s.
Until then here’s my selection for the Melbourne Cup.
It’s ‘the race that stops a nation’ in the early hours of Tuesday morning with the latest running of the Melbourne Cup. Rather give a Monday selection from the UK racing here’s my tip for the Cup.
Master Of Reality, trained by Joseph O’Brien and ridden by Frankie Dettori is where my dart has landed in this year’s race. The 4-year-old has been a much-improved horse this season and his length third to Stradivarius in the Ascot Gold Cup is some of the best form on offer in the field. The big field set up should suit and he looks to have the right profile for the likely winner. The rain that fell on the track late last week means that underfoot conditions will also hold no terrors for him and could ensure his stamina comes into play. You can get 25/1 with Bet365 for the race which looks great each way value.
Cheers
John
Hi all,
Vinndication was too well handicapped for his rivals in the Sodexo Gold Cup at Ascot yesterday. It’s always nice when a 2pt selection goes in. Lisp landed the place side of the bet in the 2m handicap hurdle at the same venue. Hopefully some of you were on recent eyecatcher Gumball who won the race in the hands of rising star Ben Jones.
The most important thing is that we came out of a tough Saturday with a small profit.
Onto Sunday. There is an interesting card at Carlisle which sees the return of smart novice chaser Lostintranslation in the Colin Parker Memorial Chase. He faces just three rivals here and is long odds on to make a winning seasonal reappearance. A win here and he heads to the Betfair Chase for which he will be a strong contender although I was hoping he would be going for the Ladbrokes Trophy at Newbury.
The most competitive racing today is over the Irish Sea at Cork, which features an intriguing Grade 3 Novices’ Chase and the 3m 4f Paddy Power Cork National. We say goodbye to the Irish flat season at Naas with the highlight of it’s eight race card being the €100,000 ,Daragh Fitzpatrick & Colm White Local Bookmakers November Handicap. The going is heavy at Naas and hopefully the meeting will pass a morning precautionary inspection.
Today’s selections come from Cork & Naas.
2:45 – Paddy Power Home Of The Money Back Special Irish EBF Novice Chase (Grade 3) – 2m 4f
Relatively experienced chasers Ex Patriot & Any Second Now take on the likes of Sayo and Dallas Des Pictons in an intriguing novices’ chase
Dallas Des Pictons improved with each of his first five starts last season for Gordon Elliott winning a Punchestown maiden hurdle before going on to win over 3m on his handicap debut at Leopardstown in February. He flopped in a Grade 1 at Aintree on his final start but that run was too bad to be true and he’s better judged on his Cheltenham run. Connections wasted no time in sending him chasing and he was a facile winner of a Gowran Park beginners chase 29-days ago when his market rival departed early in the race. Hopefully a better run race will suit him better here and he’s got the scope to become a Grade 1 novice chaser.
3:20 – Paddy Power Cork Grand National Handicap Chase (Grade B) – 3m 4f
A field of 16 have been declared for this year’s renewal of the Cork National. Looking at the ten-year trends which contain 10 winners from 152 runners 35 placed.
Nine of the last ten winners of the race met the following four trends:
Odds SP: 14/1 & under
Wins on Going: 0 to 1
Handicap Chase Wins: 0 to 2
Not Top Weight or between 7lb of Top Weight
9 winners from 60 runners +23 24 placed
Three of today’s runners qualify using those four trends: Young Paddymc, Cloudy Morning & Progress Drive.
Young Paddymc did well in novice company last season with form figures 212F. Looked to be going well in the lead when hampered by a loose horse and falling two out in a valuable Punchestown Festival handicap chase. First run since May but has gone well fresh in the past and looks capable of landing a decent pot this season off his present mark.
Cloudy Morning has only won one of his 16 starts over fences but that sole win did come in a seventeen runner 3m 7f handicap chase at the Punchestown Festival. The 11-year-old has returned from a summer break with two runs, one over a trip well short of his best and over hurdles last time. Now 12lb higher than at Punchestown but there’s no doubting his stamina for 3m 4f and he will be spot on fitness wise.
Progress Drive’s best run last season for former trainer Nicky Richards came when 3rd of 16 in the Border’s National last December. Well backed (7/1) on his debut for Gavin Cromwell in the Munster National but could never get competitive. Looks capable of better.
Oscar Knight was third in the Munster National and if he stays 3m 4f won’t be far away again.
The Gatechecker was a 2 length third in this race 12 months ago and can race off 5lb lower this time around. A reproduction of that performance would see the 9-year-old hard to beat but his form since has been poor and he pulled up at Gowran Park 29-days ago.
Aherlow is 0 wins from 6 runs but arguably put in his best effort over fences when third at Gowran Park last time. The 7-year-old has winning form over hurdles at the track and should be capable of winning over fences but this a tough race to break his maiden tag and he will do well to reverse form with winner Wonderoftheworld.
The likes of Port Aven (Willie Mullins) and The Red Menace (Noel Meade) both hail from powerful stables, are unexposed in handicap chases and could be capable of rating higher.
Verdict: Young Paddymc and Cloudy Morning are my selections in what looks a wide-open Cork National but don’t rule out The Gatechecker bouncing back to form.
3:10 – Daragh Fitzpatrick & Colm White Local Bookmakers November Handicap (Premier Handicap) – 1m 6f
Until 2017 this race was run at Leopardstown and used to be race over 2m or more latterly 1m 7f. Since it’s moved to Naas it’s settled at 1m6f. Sixteen have been declared to run for this valuable prize with eight of the 16 strong field being trained by Willie Mullins
Not a good race to use from a trending perspective although it may be worth noting eight of the ten winners were aged between five and seven.
Draw wise – there have only been four flat races at Naas over 1m 6f + in the past decade.
Stall: 1 to 8 – 4 winners from 27 runners 9 placed (Stall 1 to 4 – 4 winners from 15 runners 5 placed)
Stall: 9+ – 0 winners from 21 runners 3 placed
The small sample sizes involved mean if you fancy one drawn in a double figure stall, I wouldn’t put you off and I like two who are drawn high.
Given Willie Mullins saddles 50% of the field, I suspect you need to find one to add to your shortlist.
Stratum is in stall one. He was a well beaten favourite in this race 12 months ago which came after a disappointing run in the Cesarewitch. He comes into this year’s race having returned to his classy best when winning this year’s Cesarewitch off 7lb lower.
Diamond Hill showed plenty of battling ability to win a soft ground listed race at Galway two starts back. Not at that level when beaten at Bath last time but shaped like a step up in trip would suit. Gavin Ryan takes 5lb off the mares back and with her low draw could be dangerous.
Mr Everest won this race 12 months ago, off 3lb lower. The ground will be much softer today but he has won on heavy in the past. Looks handicapped to win this again but stall 19 is a concern. Well beaten behind Stratum last time in the Cesarewitch but the drop back in trip is in his favour.
Dalton Highway is in stall 11. The 6-year-old has been in consistent form in 1m 6f/2m handicaps this season, with form figures 1222. The last of those placed efforts came when runner-up in the Irish Cesarewitch at the Curragh 21-days ago. You can’t say he doesn’t deserve to land a decent pot like this.
Verdict: Dalton Highway won’t be winning out of turn. Mr Everest looks to have a good chance of back to back wins in the race if stall 19 isn’t an inconvenience. Of those drawn low, don’t rule out a big run from Diamond Hill.
Cheers
John