Author: John Burke

Hi all,

Another ante-post betting article for the big races of the winter jumps season. No additions to my Cheltenham Festival betting portfolio on this occasion but I do have one for Saturday at Sandown and one for the Peterborough Chase on Sunday.

Uncertainty about the weather/going at Aintree and Sandown on Saturday means I’m playing cautious on the ante post front.

Saturday December 9^th

Sandown

3:35 – Betfair London National Handicap Chase (Class 2) – 3m 5f

Classic Ben looked a handicap chaser on the upgrade when winning at the track in February. He only beat Ami Debois by a neck, but his win was worth more than the final margin of victory suggests as he idled a bit on the run- in.

The 6-year-old was sent off the 100/30 favourite on his seasonal return at Bangor last month and shaped like the run was needed when finishing 4^th of 8. Yet to race beyond 3m 2f shapes like he will appreciate the step up in distance here. Granted he appreciates soft ground, but he’s won on good to soft over hurdles and we know he goes well at the track. Will be tough to beat here off just 2lb higher than for his last win. 

1pt win – Classic Ben – 6/1 @ Coral

Sunday December 10th

Huntingdon

2:00 – Fitzdares Peterborough Chase (Grade 2) – 2m 4f

It’s probably likely that this race will cut up before post time so It’s worth backing Top Notch in anticipation that does. The consistent 8-year-old doesn’t always get the credit he deserves but he’s’ won 50% of his starts.  He showed his well-being when winning over hurdles on his seasonal debut at Aintree last month.

This race has been the target for Top Notch, and he won it 2017, when it was switched to Taunton. As he showed at Aintree, he doesn’t like to be beaten. What better horse could you want in a finish but one who likes to win.

1pt win – Top Notch – 4/1 @ William Hill

These two selections aren’t going to provide the level of profit De Rasher Counter did last Saturday but if one wins, we have banked a tidy profit.

Cheers

John

Hi all,

A new month and a new season as we have officially entered winter, according to meteorologists, and given I have been out and about on a cold and frosty Yorkshire morning, I can concur that we have.

I was hit low by a cold last week which meant I couldn’t get last week’s eyecatcher posted. Here is a double packed article of horse’s worth noting in the coming weeks.

It’s Tingle Creek Day at Sandown on Saturday and Aintree see the return to action of the Grand National fences with the latest running’s of the Becher Chase and Grand Sefton Chase. I will be posting up another ante-post article on Wednesday which will cover Saturday’s big race action.

Eyecatchers – W/e November 24^th

Friday November 22^nd

Ascot

A decent card at Ascot on Friday. Which saw an outstanding performance by Angels Breath, to win the novice chase that opened the meeting and a couple of eyecatchers.

Angels Breath – Nicky Henderson

There may have only been four runners in the 2m 3f novices chase but it didn’t lack quality and the race was run at a sound gallop throughout. He jumped well on his chase debut and had too many gears for his three rivals.

Looking to the future he’s a best priced 14/1 with Sky Bet for the Arkle Novices’ Chase at the Cheltenham Festival. Those odds suggest connections will opt to drop the 5-year-old to the minimum trip rather than go for the JLT Novices’ Chase.  This years Arkle could be a strong one but Angels Breath has produced the best performance by an English trained novice chase so far.

Cloth Cap – Jonjo O’Neill

A winner of two good ground handicap chases last November out in a career best when 3^rd of 23 in the Scottish Grand National on his final start of last season. Down the field on his seasonal reappearance at Chepstow on soft ground.

He ran a lot better when 3^rd of 13 to Militarian again on soft ground. Three miles was too short for the 7-year-old, but he remains a staying chaser to keep onside when stepped back up in trip and or gets better ground.

Lust For Glory – Nicky Henderson

Returned from a 224-day break to finish 2^nd of 9 behind all the way winner Not So Sleepy in the handicap hurdle that concluded the card. 

Twice a winner over hurdles as a novice last season the mare has returned to action of what looks a competitive mark.

The handicapper has nudged her up just 2lb for this effort which seems fair enough to me and she will surely be placed to winning advantage sooner rather than later.

Saturday November 23^nd

Two eyecatcher from Haydock’s Saturday card.

Haydock

Sharp Response – Sue Smith

It’s been a tough autumn for trainer Sue Smith, but the winners will soon be flowing.

Sharp Response who had jumped impressively to win the 3m 6f North Yorkshire Grand National Catterick back in January. Ran much better than he had his Kelso seasonal reappearance when 2^nd of 10 to Crievehill. No match for the prominently ridden winner but he was staying on well enough from the rear.

The 8-year-old remains unexposed over staying distances and is just 4lb higher than for his last win. Probably doesn’t like really testing winter ground and will do better when getting a longer distance than 3m 1f.  He could be well be aimed at another tilt at the North Yorkshire Grand National.

Tedham – JonJo O’Neil

The 5-year-old looks likely to have gone into plenty of trackers after his eyecatching effort behind Stoney Mountain in the valuable 3 ½ f handicap hurdle. Sent off the 5/1 favourite, the son of Shirocco, had shaped like the run was needed when 6^th of 17 at Cheltenham on his seasonal reappearance.

Travelling nicely behind the leaders he seemed to get outpaced and lost his place coming into the straight. Looked like he might drop through the field but stayed on strongly all the way to the line to snatch third.

A strong staying hurdler over 3m+. The handicapper has raised him 3lb for this effort, but he remains on a winnable mark. There’s a decent handicap hurdle pot in him before the season ends and he has the potential to be contender for a race like the Pertemps at the Cheltenham Festival.

Eyecatchers – W/e December 1^st

Five eyecatchers from last week’s action.

Friday November 29^th

Newbury

Glen Forsa – Mick Channon

A winner of his first three chase starts although failed to complete on his final two starts in Grade 1 company at Cheltenham & Aintree last season. 

Despite a little keenness the 7-year-old made a highly encouraging return to action when 3^rd of 12 behind Oldgrangewood. That was his first start since pulling up at Aintree in April and the runs should have taken the freshness out of the gelding.

Has scope for improvement and can win races this winter.

Closing Ceremony – Emma Lavelle

Closing Ceremony has reached the veteran stage but as he showed on his final start of last season, he’s capable of winning a handicap hurdle when all the cards fall right.

Starting the season off 5lb higher than winning at Haydock by a nose in January. He ran well for a long way, before fading out of contention, three out, in the handicap hurdle that concluded the Friday card.

Will be all the better for this run 0 wins from 8 runs  2 placed when returning from a 60+ day break, compared to 5 wins from 9 runs +25.41 6 placed when racing within 60-days of his last start.

He may have to drop a couple of pounds to win again but he will be worth noting when he returns to flat speed favouring track. A winner at Kempton, but four of his five career wins have come at Haydock.

Saturday November 30^th

Newbury

Larry – Gary Moore

Down the field on his Ascot seasonal reappearance. Larry ran much better than his final position of 8^th suggests here. He travelled well enough for a long way but just didn’t seem to stay the 2m 6 ½ f. The 6-year-old is now just 1lb higher than when winning a Class 2 novices handicap chase at Sandown in April. 

I wouldn’t rule him out in a big field handicap, but his optimum conditions seem to be field sizes 11 or less, up to 2m 5f in trip between January to April – 5 wins from 7 runs 71% +12.69 7 placed 100% with form figures 1231111.

Newcastle

Captain Chaos – Dan Skelton

Hadn’t really fired on either start this season but bounced back to something like his best in the first-time cheekpieces when runner up in the Rehearsal Handicap Chase at Newcastle. Beaten just ¾ length by Takingrisks with Top Ville Ben back in third.

The handicapper has put the 8-year-old up 3lb for this effort but of the headgear continues to do the trick, he remains on a competitive mark. Handled the heavy ground well enough here but all six of his career wins have come on soft and his record in single figure digit field sizes on soft ground is 6 wins from 11 runs 55% +5.11 7 placed. 

Runner-up in last year’s Rowland Meyrick Chase at Wetherby another go in that race, on Boxing Day, seems likely.

Top Ville Ben who finished third may also be worth keeping note of and the Rowland Meyrick could well also be a target for the 7-year-old. Third to Lostintranslation in a Grade 1 at Aintree in April. This was a career best effort over fences. He jumped well for a long way and was still in the lead after the last just getting caught in the final 100yds. Up 3lb after this but can win a decent handicap pot off this sort of mark.

Sunday December 1^st

Fairyhouse

There was some tremendous Grade 1 action at Fairyhouse on Sunday. Envoi Allen and Honeysuckle both enhanced their claims for success at the big spring fesitvals as did Fakir D’oudairies in winning the Drinmore Novices’ Chase.

The French bred 4-year old put in an electrifying jumping display and although market rival Samcro came down two out when still travelling well his jumping needs to improve greatly if he’s to ever beat the winner. This win came over 2m 4f, Fakir D’oudairies could well be even better over shorter and looks a serious Arkle contender on the evidence of this performance.

Ciel De Neige – Willie Mullins

Sometimes you find that the eyecatcher’s that you put up have already caught the attention of plenty of race readers. And it’s the case here with Ciel De Neige.

The 4-year-old had made his debut for Willie Mullins when 3rd of 21 in the Fred Winter Juvenile Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival.  That was a cracking run and marked him down as useful hurdler in the making.

Making his seasonal reappearance, he finished 4^th of 15 in the handicap hurdle won by stablemate Janidil. He seemed to get slightly outpaced coming into the straight but was staying on well all the way to the line. Raced like he will get further than 2m and can be competitive in valuable handicap hurdles this winter.

There’s likely to be another ante post article posted up tomorrow afternoon which will cover Saturday’s big races at Aintree & Sandown.

Cheers

John

Hi all,

De Rasher Counter got the ante-post angle off to a great start when winning the Ladbroke Trophy yesterday at early priced advised 16/1.

The King George VI & The Welsh Grand National are just two of the next big races due to come under the microscope but more on the ante post betting later next week.

Apart from De Rasher Counter’s win, Magic Saint added to the profit with a win at 4/1 and Star Of Lanka ran into the places to land the each way bet.

On Sunday It’s Day 2 of Fairyhouse Christmas Festival. There are two Grade 1 races, the Royal Bond Novices’ Hurdle & the Drimore Novices Chase and two ultra-competitive handicaps.

Fairyhouse

2:05 – Killer Miller plugged on to take 4^th on his seasonal reappearance 14-days ago. The 10-year-old hasn’t recaptured his earlier novice chase form since returning from a mammoth absence last December.

Prince Of Scars hasn’t transferred his high class hurdle form to fences yet but he’s on good mark if he can reproduce it and isn’t without a chance here.

Ah Littleluck 1-12 over fences didn’t really go on last season after winning a 3m beginner’s chase at Navan in January. Shaped with more promise when 4^th of 8 at Down Royal 29-days ago. Should come on plenty for that run and should be capable of landing a handicap chase off a mark of 125. Ground versatile and did win a valuable handicap hurdle at the track in April last year.

Wrong Decision has a very interesting profile. The 9-year-old has just had the four starts under rules, winning two points. Returned to action with an excellent second placed effort in a Cork Hunter Chase 14-days ago. That run should have put him spot on fitness wise for this. Granted he’s 4lb out of the weights but he’s handicapped to go well on his first foray into handicap company.

1pt win – Wrong Decision – 7/1 @ Bet365 & William Hill

1pt win – Ah Littleluck – 8/1 – Gen

3:10 – Willie Mullins saddles five of the 15 runners in this 2m handicap hurdle. Three of them have good chances Buildmeupbuttercup, Ciel De Neige & Janidil.

Janidil has returned to action in excellent form winning a Tipperary maiden before running out a good winner of a handicap hurdle at Down Royal 29-days ago. The 5-year-old was always well positioned and had too much for speed for his rivals that day. Up 10lb since makes life tougher but he remains on the upgrade and capable of going close.

Ciel De Neige made his debut for Willie Mullins when 3^rd of 21 in the Fred Winter Juvenile Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival.  That was a cracking run from the 4-year-old and marked him down as useful hurdler in the making. Like his stablemate, he’s owned by J P McManus and the is more than capable of running well off just 2lb higher than at Cheltenham.

Buildmeupbuttercup hasn’t yet transferred her decent handicap flat form, runner-up in the Ascot Stakes at this years Royal Ascot. The 5-year-old is 1-5 over hurdles, won a maiden hurdle at Navan last December. Gets the first-time tongue tie today and has similar chance to her stablemates mentioned above.

I find it hard to split the three Mullins horses that I have just mentioned but at the prices I’m just edging towards Ciel De Neige.

1pt win – Ciel De Neige – 11/2 @ Bet365 & William Hill

Cheers

John

Hi all,

It’s Ladbroke Trophy Day at Newbury, the big race, the Ladbroke Trophy, has attracted 24 runners which is double last year’s runners. The supporting handicaps on the seven-race card have all attracted decent field sizes.

Up at Newcastle it’s the Fighting Fifth Hurdle, which sees the return of Buveur D’Air, and the Rehearsal Handicap Chase. The course does have to survive an 8am precautionary inspection.

Let’s begin at Newbury where most of today’s selections run.

Newbury

1:50 – Dan McGrue looks likely to head the market on the back of his win at Plumpton 26-days ago. The ground was heavy that day so underfoot conditions look likely to be different and he’s up 7lb today. All that said he shouldn’t be far away.

Star Of Lanka wasn’t beaten far on his return at Sandown 20-days ago and can go well off 4lb higher here. Ben Jones takes off a useful 5lb and trainer Warren Greatrex is 5 winners from 19 runners 26% +3 A/E 1.63 7 placed 37% with his runners at the meeting in the past 5-years. A decent each way contender.

1pt each way – Star Of Lanka – 11/1 @ Ladbrokes (paying 5 places 1/5 odds)

2:25 – The drying ground will be in the favour of Scarlet Dragon. Crooks Peak is only 1lb higher than when winning a class 3 handicap hurdle over C&D in March not so good on his next three starts, including his seasonal reappearance at Chepstow 49-days ago. The drying ground will be in favour and he could get into the money even in this much better race.

Nicky Henderson saddles three in: Elusive Belle, Epatante & French Crusader. All three are contenders if ready to go on their seasonal debuts. The best of the three today could be Elusive Belle who makes her handicap debut off a fair but beatable mark.

My preference from a win perspective is Elvis Mail who makes the long journey from Scotland for this handicap hurdle. A decisive winner at Ayr, on his seasonal reappearance 28-days. The 5-year-old is 6lb higher than last time but he’s progressive and remains on a winning mark. Looks the one to beat.

Elvis Mail – 6/1 @ Paddy Power & William Hill

Elusive Belle – 4/1 – Gen

3:00 – Ladbrokes Trophy Chase (Handicap) (Grade 3) (Class 1) – 3m 2f

The big betting race of the weekend. Great to see this year’s renewal has attracted a field of 24 runners. I tipped up De Rasher Counter & On The Blind Side in my last ante post angle post at much bigger prices. I will stick with them although their prices are short enough now. De Rasher Counter may prefer it even softer, but the drying ground looks ideal for On The Blind Side.

Colin Tizzard saddles four Elegant Escape, Mister Malarkey, West Approach & Robinsfirth. The trainer won the race last year in 2016 and all four of his runners have chances. Looking at the betting the outsider of his four runners Robinsfirth is of most interest. The 10-year-old has only 13 career starts, winning five of them. He’s been trained for the race, goes well fresh and you couldn’t totally dismiss his chance but needs a career best here.

I fancied Dingo Dollor for this race 12 months ago and he ran a cracker to finish 3^rd on ground that would have been plenty soft enough. Another big run expected but I have to say this race looks tougher than last years.

0.5pts – each way – Robinsfirth – 25/1 @ Ladbrokes & Paddy Power (both paying 6 places `1/5 odds)

3:40 – Magic Saint heads the ante post market. He should improve plenty for his recent 5th of 17 in the BetVictor Gold Cup and the drop back to an extended two mile will also be in his favour. Short price given what looks a competitive race, but he could be thrown in here and better than his mark of 147.

At bigger odd’s I wouldn’t dismiss the claims of Tree Of Liberty who’s making his seasonal debut today

The 7-year-old is on a competitive mark based on the best form of last season’s form. He was 2nd of 9 to last Saturday’s Ascot Capeland, at Ludlow last December. Looks very interesting off the same mark as Ludlow and my idea of some each way value.

1pt win – magic Saint – 7/1 @ Coral & William Hill

0.5pts each way – Tree Of Liberty – 16/1 @ William Hill & Ladbrokes (both paying 5 places 1/5 odds)

Newcastle

3:20 – This year’s running of the Rehearsal Handicap Chase has attracted a field of nine runners on ground which looks likely to be heavy.

Kilfilum Cross took advantage of a lenient handicap mark on his first start for trainer Henry Oliver, when winning an amateur riders’ race at Ludlow in February. He improved further on his next start when finishing 2nd of 22 in the Kim Muir Handicap Chase at the Cheltenham Festival. 

Ended last season with a below par effort at Ayr on ground that was probably quick enough for the 8-year-old. Kilfilum Cross is better judged on his Cheltenham run rather than his Ayr one. Lightly raced, just the nine career starts, he’s got plenty of size about him and should hold his own in handicap chases over 3m+ this season.

Making his seasonal return after a 201-day absence over a trip (2m 4f) which seemed to short of his best, but he ran well to finish 3rd of 12. Will be all the better for his seasonal reappearance and I don’t think we have seen the best of the 8-year-old yet. Yet to race on heavy is a slight negative but apart from that he got a good chance.

1pt win – Kilfilum Cross – 7/2 @ Bet365 & William Hill

Cheers

John

Hi all,

It’s day one of the Newbury Winter Carnival which culminates on Saturday with the Ladbroke Trophy. Today’s big race is the Grade 2 Ladbrokes Long Distance Hurdle which sees the return of last season’s Stayers Hurdle winner Paisley Park who is opposed by previous race winners Thistlecrack, Beer Goggles & Unowhatimeanharry. Besides that high class contest there is a good supporting card of races.

Newbury

12:45 – The first to catch the eye in this novices’ handicap chase is Khage, trained by Harry Whittington, who trained the winner of this race in 2015 & 2017.  The 6-year-old, a three-time winner over hurdles ran well for a long way on his chase debut at Carlisle last month and should be better going left-handed. The trainer’s record in the race suggests a big run can be expected.

1pt win – Khage – 5/1 @ William Hill & Paddy Power

1:50 – Twelve go to post for this handicap chase including the classy Kalashnikov and possible improver Glen Forsa, who makes his seasonal return here.

The softer the ground the better for Gala Ball who’s won four times on soft ground. The 9-year-old goes well around here with form figures 122221.  Last of those wins came when beating one of today’s rivals San Benedeto over C&D in March. Just 4lb higher than for his last win and capable of getting into the money.

1pt each way – Gala Ball – 9/1 @ Ladbrokes & paddy Power

3:35 – Dolphin Square looks competitively weighted for his handicap hurdle debut. A winner at Wincanton on good ground 33-days ago. The 5-year-old has won on soft and if he handles the track looks set to go close.

1pt win – Dolphin Square – 9/2 – Gen

Cheers

John

Hi all,

Well On The Slopes plugged on into third at Kempton to land the place side of the bet.

I have had a cold for the last two days so not had a chance to look at the racing, so no selections today.

I’m hoping to get last weeks eyecatchers and any ante post selections over to you later today.

Cheers

John

Hi all,

Start of a new week and rather unusually we have a Monday selection courtesy of a recent eyecatcher running at Kempton.

I will get this week’s ante post angle and last weeks eyecatchers over to you on Wednesday. Probably a quiet week on the betting front at least until Friday and the start of Newbury’s two-day Winter Festival.

Kempton

2:35 – On The Slopes – A winner of a soft ground novice hurdle at Fontwell last December. The 5-year-old was described by his trainer as “a big backward horse” after that hurdle success.

Jumped soundly when 4th of 6 on his chase debut at Uttoxeter last month. He built on that promise when runner up to Doctor Dex in a novices’ handicap chase at Ascot.

No match for the winner on the day he still managed to finish five lengths of the third. Softer ground than he faced here shouldn’t be issue and remains’ a work in progress over fences. I will be surprised if he can’t win something similar especially now his stable is in better form.

1pt each way – On The Slopes – 13/2 @ Paddy Power or 6/1 – Gen

Cheers

John

Hi all,

Wins by Bold Plan & Capeland gave us a solid Saturday profit.

I woke up full of cold this morning so I will keep today’s post short.

It’s the Troytown Handicap Chase at Navan this afternoon and there’s also a recent eyecatcher at the meeting.

Navan

3:00 – Ladbrokes Troytown Handicap Chase (Grade B)

Burgas – Trainer Noel Meade won this 12 months ago and the consistent Burgas has each way claims if he stays today’s 3m.

Roaring Bull – Looks the sort to land a staying handicap chase this season but has work to do reverse placings with Discorama on their recent running at Wexford.

Discorama – Could well end this season a Grade 1 staying chaser. Runner-up in the 4m at the Cheltenham Festival before finishing runner-up to Delta Work in a Grade 1 at the Punchestown Festival. A good return to action at Wexford well ahead of Roaring Bull. The softer the ground the better given his proven stamina. A solid contender even under top-weight and a useful 5lb conditional has been booked.

Portmore Lough – Comes into the race seeking the hat trick after wins at Galway. A different track today and up 10lb complicates matter for the 8-year-old. Must be considered a contender if he’s as good away from Galway.

Joseph O’Brien saddles a pair of contenders in Shady Operator & Tower Bridge. Both have a had a recent run and have potential over 3m. Slight preference for the latter who stayed 3m over hurdles and is having his first start over fences at that trip today.

Ravenhill showed he could land a handicap like this when runner-up in the Kerry National. Best form has come on yielding or quicker so any further easing of the going would be a negative.

Chris’s Dream – Made it 2 from 2 at the track when winning a Grade 2 over C&D in February. Disappointed in Grade 1’s at Aintree and Punchestown on his final two starts but will find this easier. Competitively handicapped on his best form and can’t be ruled on his seasonal reappearance.

Verdict: I’m not expecting a shock result here so concentrating on those runners at the head of the market looks a wise move. Tower Bridge has plenty of scope for improvement for his first go at 3m over fences. Discorama has plenty of class but may want the ground even softer. While Ravenhill’s chances would be increased by the ground not easing further.

1pt each way – Tower Bridge – 7/1 @ Coral (Paying 5 places 1/5 odds)

1:30 – Recent Navan eyecatcher Encore Lui looks to have a good chance of breaking his maiden tag in this handicap hurdle. The lightly raced 5-year-old is up just 3lb for his excellent seasonal return over C&D two weeks ago.

Cheers

John

Hi all,

Normally Haydock would take centre stage on Saturday give it’s Betfair Chase Day but the Altior v Cyrname match-up at Ascot means the eyes of the racing world will be focused on Ascot. Still there is no denying the racing at both racecourses is of the highest standard and offers plenty of betting opportunities.

Haydock

1:50 – Bold Plan disappointed on his seasonal reappearance at Chepstow when only 10^th of 17 behind Flash Of Steel. He’s surely better than that and should be judged on his 2nd of 18 at Uttoxeter back in March. The 5-year-old remains on a competitive mark off 130 and is worth another chance here.

Whoshotthesheriff looked top be as travelling as well as anything, when falling two out at Cheltenham on his seasonal reappearance. The 5-year-old had won his final two starts in novice hurdle company at Carlisle & Sedgefield last season. If his confidence has been affected by that fall he remains unexposed in handicap hurdles, just his second start, and Sean Quinlan who is 3 from 3 on the gelding returns to the saddle.

1pt win – Bold Plan – 8/1 @ William Hill

1pt win – Whoshotthesheriff – 6/1 @ Paddy Power

2:25 – Betfair Best Odds On ITV Races Stayers’ Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) (Class 1) – 3m ½ f

Sykes was a bit of an eyecatcher at the first Cheltenham Meeting when finishing third to Tobefair in the Pertemps Series Qualifier on his first start for 203-days. Five of his six career win have come between October & November and even more interestingly he’s a perfect 5 wins from 5 runs + 27.63 on his second start of the season. A winner over C&D in February off 4lb lower the 10-year-old is vulnerable to any improvers in the field but he should be ready for a big run.

Breaking Waves was an eyecatcher from the same Cheltenham Meeting when returning from a 217-day absence. Coming from well back he made steady headway and was running on after the last to snatch 4th.  Saw out the 2m5f here well and looks capable of staying further.  Sent off joint 6/1 favourite which shows that connections think they have a horse on a winnable mark. Trainer Noel Williams has his horses in great form – 3 winners from 6 runners 50% +9.41 in the past 14-days.

0.5pts each way – Sykes – 40/1 @ Ladbrokes (paying 4 places ¼ odds)

1pt each way – Breaking Waves – 10/1 @ Bet365 (paying 4 places ¼ odds)

Ascot

3:20 – Gerard Bertrand Hurst Park Handicap Chase (Class 2) – 2m 1f

Eleven go to post for this handicap chase, including the first three home in last year’s race Caid Du Lin, Speredek & Marracudja.

Speredek is best in on the weights of three but the 8-year-old disappointed on his seasonal; reappearance over C&D.  Marracudja is temptingly handicapped on his best form and the anticipated strong pace is in his favour. Best previous form has come on a sound surface but has each way claims if the ground doesn’t ease much further before post time.

Stablemates Diego Du Charmil & Capeland were involved in the controversial finish over C&D at the last meeting. Capeland looked unlucky that day when his stablemate forced him out after the last. On 6lb better terms I would fancy Capeland to finish ahead this time.

Knocknanuss is interesting in the first-time blinkers. The 9-year-old a useful chaser at his best shaped well to finish third behind Saint Calavados at Cheltenham on his seasonal reappearance 28-days ago. Had looked like the race would do him good. Headed two out he was still in contention at the last and given how keen he was in the early stages of the race did well to finish a close as he did in third. Whatever his fate here there is a decent pot in him before the season is out.

The Last Day returned to action with an impressive five length win at Aintree 14-days ago. He’s up in class today and is up 11lb in the weights but the softer the ground the better for the 7-year-old who is 5 wins from 8 runs 7 placed on soft and heavy.

Verdict: Capeland deserves to get compensation for last time. The Last Day is a 2m handicap chaser on the upgrade but needs the ground to be soft at best in this company. If the first time headgear works the trick the bold jumping Knocknanuss will be hard to keep out of the frame, although he might prefer a slightly sounder surface.

1pt win – Knocknanuss – 5/1 @ Paddy Power

1pt win – Capeland – 5/1 @Bet365

Gowran Park

2:10 – Recent Wexford eyecatcher Castlebrook is an interesting runner in this chase. On ratings he has plenty to find with the likes of Getabird, Mengli Khan and Mortal but the forecast heavy ground has tempted connections to let him take his chance. He clearly relished the heavy ground on his first start since April and his first run over fences when winning at Wexford.  Connections see him as a Grade 1 level in the making and the Grade 1 novices’ chase at Limerick was nominated as target by his trainer after the race. This win came over 2m 4f, but he will get 3m+ with more experience. I’m very hopeful that he will outrun his big odds and I can’t let him go unbacked.

1pt win – Castlebrook – 10/1 @ William Hill & Paddy Power

Cheers

John

Hi all,

After the bonus ante-post email that I sent earlier. The weekend betting action gets underway with three good handicaps Ascot on Friday.

Ascot

2:40 – A 2m 5f handicap chase that saw Mr Medic beat Flying Angel 12 months ago. Both winner & runner-up re-oppose and at the revised weights Flying Angel has a good chance of reversing places with the winner, especially if the ground was to ease to soft. On the negative side you must go back to the spring of 2017 for Flying Angel’s last win.

Mr Medic’s has got a better win profile 6 wins from 15 runs and last year’s win came on his seasonal reappearance and he returns for the first time since pulling up in the Grand Annual Handicap Chase at the Cheltenham Festival. Two from four here at Ascot, he seems at his best in the first part of the season 5 wins from 9 runs +35.5 6 placed between October to December. Trainer yet to have a winner this autumn, is a slight concern, but I’m hoping for a big performance from his runner here.

Besides, Mr Medic we also have a recent eyecatcher Sky Pirate running here.  This is what I wrote after his seasonal reappearance; “The 6-year-old, twice a winning hurdler, improved for going over fences last season. No wins from five starts 2 placed. He had only been beaten a length at Carlisle on his second start over the larger obstacles and then fell two out when still in contention at Cheltenham in November.

Returning from a 216-day break. He was held up in the early part of the race before making headway five out. He was just behind the leader when falling two from home. This was a promising run given the 2m 3f distance looked like it might prove a bit short for the son of Midnight Legend”.

Hopefully he will be none the worse for this mishap and the step up to 2m 5f looks in his favour.  He looks set to go off favourite, is on a good mark and will be tough to beat with a clean round of jumping.

1pt win – Mr Medic – 5/1 – Gen

1pt win – Sky Pirate – 5/2 @ Paddy Power

3:15 – Fourteen have been declared for this 3m Class 3 handicap chase.

King Of Realms won a C&D novice handicap chase here 12 months ago, off 8lb lower and ended last season with a decisive win in the first time visor at Wincanton in March off 3lb lower. Remains capable of better, if the visor continues to have a positive effect.  Won first time up last season and seems to go well fresh.

The likes of Cloth Cap might prefer better ground, & Dragon D’Estruval will have their supporters. As will recent Exeter winner Orchardstown Cross who has won three of his four starts over fences with form figures 2111. Up 9lb since Exeter but the 8-year-old may not have reached his class ceiling just yet.

Reikers Island was very impressive when winning at Wincanton last December off 11lb lower before looking like he would follow up in the Mandarin Handicap Chase at Newbury on his next start but for a mistake at the last he could well have prevailed. The 6-year-old wasn’t so good on his final two starts of last season but shaped with promise when 4^th of 10 on his Exeter reappearance last month.  He will be better for that run and although he may want further 3m, remains capable of better.

0.5pts each way – Reikers Island – 13/2 @Coral & Ladbrokes (both paying 4 places 1/5 odds)

3:45 – Another handicap that has attracted a decent sized field. Two recent eyecatchers Red Force One & Oakley run.

Red Force One a comfortable winner of a Fakenham novice hurdle oh his return form a summer break. Given his relative inexperience over hurdles he ran a cracker when 2^nd of 15 behind Gumball over C&D 20-days ago. Staying on best of all after the last he got within a neck in Gumball at the line. There is surely decent handicap hurdle in the 4-year-old although he probably won’t want the ground much softer than good to soft.

Oakley improved with each of his four starts over hurdles last season looking particularly progressive when winning on his handicap hurdle debut at Kempton back in January. The 6-year-old was having his first start for 286-days when finishing 3rd of 13 behind Benny’s Bridge in the 2m ½ f handicap hurdle. He ran like the run was needed at Cheltenham and should improve plenty for it. Ground versatile and looks set for a big run with Ben Jones taking off a valuable 5lb.

Speed Company a good handicapper on the level put in a career best over hurdles when winning at Chepstow last month. The handicapper has raised him 9lb for that success but should remain competitive of his new mark although he does have a bit find with Oakley on their running at Kempton.

Of the rest Ferrobin has a consistent record in novice hurdlesand has only been out of the first two once on eight starts. The 5-year-old makes his handicap hurdle debut today but needs to improve further if he’s to defy a mark of 130.

1pt win – Oakley – 6/1 – Gen

Cheers

John