Hi all,
It’s day one of the Aintree Grand National Festival. There’s a first sight of the National fences with the latest running of Foxhunters Chase. The competitive Red Rum Handicap Chase over 2m. The card concludes with an interesting mares’ only bumper. Which sees the unbeaten Eileendover back in action after bypassing the Champion Bumper at Cheltenham.
I have had a look at all seven races on the card in this preview.
Aintree Grand National Festival – Day 1
The going is being described as good to soft but I suspect given the watering that the track will ride on the slow side and the going/stick reading of 5.6 on the chase course and 5.8 on the hurdle course suggests that will be the case.
1:45 – (Mildmay) SSS Super Alloys Manifesto Novices’ Chase (Grade 1) – 2m 4f
Fusil Raffles heads the betting after his recent second in the Marsh Novices Chase at Cheltenham. The 6-year-old jumps neatly, will like the good ground, and should be suited by the track. Big chance if this doesn’t come to quick. Trainer Nicky Henderson saddled the 2012 winner.
Eldorado Allen was ridden to place in the Arkle Novices Chase. He was no match for Shishkin but was given a good ride to finish runner-up. First go beyond 2m 1f but it looks worth a try. Trainer Colin Tizzard has had a nightmare season but his record at the meeting is a good one. Particularly in Grade 1’s with runners who finished first or second on their last start – 6 winners from 12 runners 50% +29.79 8 placed 67%, He also saddled the winner of this race in 2018.
The Shunter has been a real money spinner for connections this season and fully deserves to take his chance in Graded company after his win at the Cheltenham Festival. His new mark means he doesn’t need find much more improvement to win here.
Verdict: I’m going with The Shunter here but Eldorado Allen must be respected.
2:20 – Doom Bar Anniversary 4-Y-O Juvenile Hurdle (Grade 1) – 2m 1f
Monmiral made it 4-4 over hurdles when winning at Haydock 47-days ago. He bypassed Cheltenham to come here. Solid form chance. However, I’m not sure he should be as short as he is.
Adagio is a consistent hurdler who posted a career best when runner-up in the Triumph Hurdle last time. Likely to give his running and won’t be far away.
If there is to be an upset it could be provided by Fiveandtwenty or John Locke.
Fiveandtwenty’s form isn’t at the level as the other two. However, she made it 3-3 since going hurdling when winning the Listed Scottish Triumph Hurdle at Musselburgh last time. A speedy and slick hurdler connections opted for this rather than go to Cheltenham.
John Locke wasn’t disgraced when fourth to Tritonic in the Adonis Hurdle. That was his first start over hurdles so should be capable of more improvement. Big ask here but can’t be easily dismissed.
Verdict: Adagio should be favourite ahead ofMonmiral but there doesn’t look like there will be a lot of pace in the race and Fiveandtwenty could be the one to take advantage.
1pt win – Fiveandtwenty – 14/1 @ Bet365
2:50 – Betway Bowl Chase (Grade 1) – 3m 1f
A decent sized field of nine have been declared for arguably the race of the day.
Clan Des Obeaux has finished second in the race in 2019 and third in 2018. Probably not the horse that he once was although his run in the Betfair Chase was a good one. Gets the first time cheekpieces today which will hopefully galvanise him back to something approaching his best.
Native River found things happening to quickly in the Gold Cup but he managed to plug on into fourth. There isn’t much pace forecast which will suit him but will underfoot conditions be soft enough?
Waiting Patiently runner-up in the King George VI is suited by a flat track and as he showed at Kempton this distance is within his stamina range. Lightly raced for a 10-year-old he deserves to win another Grade 1.
Tiger Roll comes here rather than go for the Gold Cup. He bounced back to form to win the Cross Country at Cheltenham last time. This is his time of year and the good ground will suit. Big player.
Clondaw Castle is another who will relish the drying ground. The 9-year-old put in a career best effort when stepped up to 3m in a valuable handicap chase at Kempton last time. This is looks a step-in class but on the figures he doesn’t have much to find with the principals.
Mister Fisher ran well, considering how badly he jumped, before pulling up in the Ryanair Chase at Cheltenham. Looks worth a go over 3m but his jumping must be better than last time if he’s to win in this company.
Verdict: If the ground is closer to good you would have to give the improving Clondaw Castle a big chance. If they have put on a lot of water on the track then Native River shouldn’t be underestimated.
1pt win – Native River – 6/1 @ Bet365
3:25 – Aintree Hurdle (Grade 1) – 2m 4f
Brewin’upastorm & McFabulous were first and second in the Grade 2 National Spirit Hurdle at Fontwell last time. The runner-up gets 6lb from the winner so there shouldn’t be much between the pair at these weights. However, I think there could be more to come from Brewin’upastorm over hurdles.
Jason The Militant brings high class Irish hurdling form to the race. He seems to be improving with racing and given his prominent style of running he should be suited by the track. First start beyond two miles but should stay.
Song For Someone missed the Champion Hurdle after a lack lustre run behind Goshen in the Kingwell Hurdle at Wincanton. Had looked better than ever when winning his first two starts this season and can’t be ruled out over trip that suits.
Abacadabras didn’t get beyond the third in the Champion Hurdle. Last season’s Supreme Novices Hurdle runner-up hasn’t really kicked on this season as hoped and he may find there are stronger stayers on his first run beyond 2m.
Buveur D’Air bypassed the Champion Hurdle. The 10-year-old probably isn’t the horse he was but it’s worth remembering the former Champion Hurdler won this in 2017 and was runner-up two years ago.
Silver Streak made all to beat Epatante in the Christmas Hurdle at Kempton but couldn’t do the same when only sixth in the Champion Hurdle. Faces competition for the lead here but he’s a smart hurdler at his best and on good ground can never be ruled out.
Not So Sleepy is a classy handicapper as he showed when beating Buzz at Ascot in December. Wasn’t disgraced when 5th of 10 in the Champion Hurdle last time. Could get into the money at big odds.
Verdict: Song For Someone is better than he was able to show last time and will be suited by the return to 2m 4f. Jason The Militant could face competition for the lead but is the best horse in the race. Not So Sleepy has each way claims. However, preference here is for Brewin’upastorm who will be suited by likely strong pace.
1pt win – Brewin’upastorm – 7/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
4:05 – (Grand National) Rose Paterson Randox Foxhunters’ Open Hunters’ Chase (Class 2) – 2m 5f
Not a race that I would normally look at but there is one I really like.
Billaway heads the market after his recent second in the Cheltenham Foxhunters last time. He’s the one to beat if he takes to the fences. However, I prefer the claims Some Man. A good moving horse he showed what he was capable of on a sound surface, when making all to win at Down Royal 22-days ago. He’s got a bit to find with Billaway on official ratings but on today’s better ground I can see him going close.
1pt win – Some Man – 8/1 @ Bet365 & Coral
4:40 – (Mildmay) Close Brothers Red Rum Handicap Chase (Grade 3) – 2m
Seventeen are set to go post for a competitive two-mile handicap chase. Looking at the pace maps for the race there’s a good chance of very strong pace.
Destrier finished 3rd in the Grade 1 novices chase C&D 2-years ago and then bettered that performance when occupying the same position in Exeter’s Haldon Gold Cup on his seasonal return last season. He’s now 6lb lower and will be suited to the expected sound surface which he hasn’t raced on since Exeter.
Editeur Du Gite made all to win at Newbury last month. The good ground suited him that day and although he’s been raised 7lb for that success. The runner-up has since gone in the so the form looks solid enough. The forecast strong pace could be a negative here.
On The Slopes is another who likes to force the pace. The 7-year-old finished 4th of 19 in the Grand Annual at Cheltenham. The going will suit and Aintree’s flatter track will suit him better than Cheltenham.
Frero Banbou seemed to have benefited from a combination of a wind op and better ground when comfortably winning at Sandown last month. The handicapper has hiked him up 13lb for that victory but he has potential for further improvement.
Getaway Trump should be suited by a strongly run race on a flat track. A comfortable winner at Doncaster last time. The top weight is up 9lb higher in a deeper race but shouldn’t be far away although he often flattered to deceive over hurdles.
Grey Diamond has progressed with each of his three starts since returning from a 12-month break. Career best when winning at Sandown 27-days ago. The ground was good that day so underfoot conditions won’t be a problem for the 7-year-old. Raised 6lb for his Sandown success but must be high on the shortlist.
Verdict: Destrier is very well handicapped but his price has now gone. At the prices I’m going with recent handicap winners Grey Diamond & Editeur Du Gite.
1pt win – Grey Diamond – 9/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
1pt win – Editeur Du Gite – 10/1 @ Bet365
5:15 – Goffs UK Nickel Coin Mares’ Standard Open National Hunt Flat Race (Grade 2) – 2m 1f
Eileendover is the one to beat. The mare is unbeaten on her three bumper starts and will be suited by Aintree’s flat track.
Elle Est Belle came from off the pace to finish third in the Champion Bumper. Looks the one danger to the favourite and the anticipated strong pace will suit her.
Wheres Maud Gone has won both her bumper starts. Her first success came at Thurles in November and she followed up on her first start for Laura Morgan at Ayr last month. The daughter of Yeats looks a smart prospect and although she needs to improve again has each way claims.
Me Too Please returned from 12 months off the track to win at Down Royal 22-days ago. The daughter of Champs Elysees needs to have improved plenty since to trouble the likes of Eileendover and Elle Est Belle but she’s an interesting contender from an Irish trainer who doesn’t send many over to Britain these days.
Verdict: Eileendover will take the beating but at the prices Me Too Please and Wheres Maud Gone appeal.
1pt win – Me Too Please – 10/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
1pt each way – Wheres Maud Gone – 20/1 @ Bet365 (paying 4 places 1/5 odds)
Cheers
John