Hi all,
A disappointing Friday after an excellent Boxing Day although Plan Of Attack did manage to place at 18/1 in the Paddy Power Handicap Chase.
Today’s action is centred at Leopardstown & Newbury although there’s a valuable handicap chase at Limerick.
Leopardstown
12:50 – Pertemps Series Qualifier’s are races that should usually come with a wealth warning. This one more than most as there are 27 declared runners.
Sire De Berlais won the last seasons final at Cheltenham and was an eyecatching 4th at Navan three weeks ago. Probably being aimed at the final again and won’t find top weight of 12-1 easy to defy here. Two places in front of Sir De Berlais at Navan was Tout Est Permis. A high-class staying chaser he’s been nudged up 5lb for that effort but is still 29lb lower rated over hurdles than he is over fences.
Rock De Baune was 5th in this race last year, A winner on the flat at the Listowel Festival in September and put in a career best over hurdles at Naas 49-days ago. This is only his second start over 3m and the 5-year-old remains capable of better.
A Great View is another recent eyecatcher when staying on into 4th over an inadequate 2m last month. That was the 8-year-old’s first start since finishing 9th in this race 12 months ago. Sixth in the 2018 Final, he was also beaten just a short head in this race in 2017 and one a valuable handicap hurdle at the Punchestown during a productive season.
Verdict: Tout Est Permis has hurdle races in him off his much lower mark. Rock De Baune remains unexposed over 3m and ran well in the race 12 months ago. Likewise, A Great View was runner-up in this race two years ago and shaped with promise over an inadequate 2m last time.
1pt win – Rock De Baune – 7/1 @ Bet365
0.5pts each way – A Great View – 16/1 @ Bet365 (paying 5 places ¼ odds)
Newbury
1:50 – Howling Moon won a maiden hurdle here over 2m ½ f back in January. After two poor runs on his return to action the 5-year-old put in a much better effort and a career best when 4th of 16 over C&D 28-days ago. Has been dropped 2lb since that effort and has each way claims again today. Point Of Principle is making his seasonal return here. The 6-year-old has gone well fresh in the past, including when runner-up at Chepstow last season. He ended last season with an excellent close-up 2nd of 22 in a valuable handicap hurdle at Aintree in April. Up 5lb but more than capable of being involved if on a going day.
Verdict: Howling Moon has each way claimsif building on his recent fourth placed effort over C&D. Point Of Principle may not be the consistent of horses but he’s capable of winning a race like this if at his best and trainer Tim Vaughan won this race in 2016.
0.5pts each way – Point Of Principle – 14/1 @Paddy Power @Betfair Sportsbook (both paying 4 places 1/5 odds)
0.5pts each way – Howling Moon – 14/1 @ Paddy Power @Betfair Sportsbook (both paying 4 places 1/5 odds)
2:35 – Polydora looks capable of winning off his present mark based on his 4th of 11 behind De Rasher Counter at Uttoxeter in March, now 6lb lower. Needs to jump better than he did when runner-up on his seasonal return at Ayr last month but at least should strip fitter today.
1pt win – Polydora – 5/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
3:35 – Trainer Emma Lavelle won this race 12 months ago with De Rasher Counter and has a chance of back to back wins with Down The Highway. A useful novice hurdler last season the 6-year-old ran well enough on his chase debut at Stratford to think he can win races over fences. Disappointed when only 7/2 on his handicap chase debut at Chepstow 21-days ago although he did lose a shoe in that race which is possible excuse for that run. Commodore Barry runner-up on his first two start over fences ran out five out at Leicester when still in the lead last time. A solid enough jumper he may find 2m 6 ½ f a bit on the short side as he’s a strong stayer. Tidal Flow a winner here over hurdles last season built on the promise of his chase debut when jumping soundly to win a Uttoxeter beginners chase 18-days ago. Has top-weight to carry but still needs respecting on just his third start over the larger obstacles.
Verdict: Tidal Flow will be popular after his recent Uttoxeter success. Down The Highway represents last years winning trainer and has each way claims.
0.5pts each way – Down The Highway – 12/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
Limerick
2:50 – A field of 16 are declared to go to post for this 2m 3 ½ f handicap chase.
Ministerforsport a winner here over hurdles, is 0 wins from 5 starts over fences but shaped well enough when a close up 3rd of 9 in a beginners’ chase at Listowel two starts back. Was still in contention when making a bad mistake four out at Thurles 30-days ago. Only beaten four lengths into third by A Plus Tard, at Naas 12 months ago, just behind subsequent Arkle winner Duc Des Genievres. Makes his handicap chase debut off a workable mark and if none the worse for his Thurles mishap has each way claims on ground that will suit.
Without Limites returned from 12 months off the track when winning a Gowran Park Handicap Hurdle 85-days ago. Goes well fresh and in the mud. The 7-year-old is capable of better over fences although may need further to show it.
Articulum had a good novice chase season and finished 3rd of 12 in the Arkle Chase at Cheltenham. Ran well when runner-up at Cork on his seasonal reappearance back in October. The 9-year-old also ran well when 3rd of 15 back over hurdles at Fairyhouse at the beginning of the month. Has top-weight of 11-10 to carry but looks set for a good run.
Redhotfillypeppers won a novice chase here on her first start over fences at this meeting last year. The mare wasn’t disgraced when 5th of 23 in the Troytown Handicap Chase on her return to action 34-days ago. That run should have taken some of the freshness out of the 7-year-old and the drop back in distance shouldn’t be too much of an issue either.
Verdict: There are plenty in with a chance for this valuable prize. Redhotfillypeppers should be sharper for her Troytown run. Articulum is a strong contender even under top weight. Minsterforsport just gets the nod on his handicap chase debut off what looks a workable mark on his best form.
0.5pts each way – Ministerforsport – 10/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes (both paying 4 places ¼ odds)
0.5pts each way – Articulum – 10/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook (both paying 5 places 1/5 odds)
Cheers
John