Hi all,
A bit of a losing run came to an end with two winners at Ascot, courtesy of run-away winner Not So Sleepy and the impressive Espoir De Guye.
I’m away until the December 27th so there won’t be any selections on Boxing Day. However, here are some selections for the Boxing Day cards at Kempton & Wetherby. I have added the best prices at time of writing should you decide to go in ante post.
Happy Christmas and see you on Friday.
Thursday December 26th
Kempton
3:05 – Ladbrokes King George VI Chase (Grade 1) – 3m
This Grade 1 chase was first run in 1937. The race has been one by some of steeplechasing’s great including Arkle and more latterly Kauto Star who won the race five times between 2006 & 2011.
Looking at the ten-year trends which contain 10 winners from 89 runners 28 placed.
All ten winners shared the following:
Last Time Out Placing: First Four
Days Since last Run: 26 to 75-days
Minimum Distance Ran: 3m ½ f+
10 winners from 40 runners +4.48 22 placed 55%
Cyrname – Heads the ante post betting at a best priced 2/1. He’s at his best going right-handed and after beating Altior at Ascot is the best chaser in training. The negative he’s yet to race beyond 2m 5f. No horse in the past ten years has won the race having not raced at 3m +. A bold jumper he could lead them all a merry dance, but he will have to be a superstar to win for me.
Lostintranslation – The only horse in the running after winning the Chase Triple Crown after his win in the Betfair Chase at Haydock last month. I think he should be heading the market. He looked all speed when winning at Haydock so this might well be his Gold Cup.
Clan Des Obeaux – Took his form to a new level when winning this race last year. He travelled sweetly through the race and found enough after the last to hold off Thistlecrack. Not as good on subsequent starts in the Gold Cup & Aintree. Will be all the better for his seasonal reappearance at Down Royal 54-days ago. He’s 4 wins from 9 runs +10.34 5 placed when returning from a 31 to 60-day break so lack of a recent run isn’t a negative. He should a good tow into the race from stablemate Cyrname. This is his Gold Cup and I can’t see him being out the first three
1pt win – Clan Des Obeaux – 4/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook
Given we are only at the five-day stage of declarations then running plans are still fluid for the next two races.
1:20 – Ladbrokes “Where The Nation Plays” Chase (A Novices’ Limited Handicap) (Class 3) – 2m 4 ½ f
This is normally a useful novices handicap chase and the form should be worth following going forward.
Sammy Bill is a young handicap chaser very much on an upward curve. The 6-year-old is 2 wins from 2 runs over fences. A winner over C&D on his seasonal return he improved further when winning at Aintree 19-days ago. The handicapper has raised him 11lb for his last win, but his improvement probably hasn’t just yet. This will be the softest ground he’s faced so far in his career.
Simply The Betts is another chaser very much on the up. He’s also 2 wins from 2 runs over fences. A winner of a good race at Chepstow, form working out well, on his chasing debut. He didn’t have to improve much to beat two rivals at Newcastle on his last start. A stronger run race will suit him, and he goes well on soft ground. Both chase wins have come over 2m but should stay 2m 4f. Up 8lb for his last win but he remains on a winnable mark.
Trainer Mick Channon won this race 12 months ago and had the runner up in 2017 & 2013. He could saddle Hold The Note. The 5-year-old has only had the six career starts winning a bumper and a Doncaster novice hurdle last December. He was sent off the 13/8 favourite for his chase debut at Ludlow last month. He jumped well enough that day and should be sharper with that run under his belt. Given his trainer’s record in the race he must be considered a major contender off 133.
Verdict: I’m a big fan of Sammy Bill and if he handles the much softer ground, he can win this. However, Simply The Betts has the form on the ground and should be suited by today’s bigger field. Hold The Note represents a trainer who knows what’s required to win this race and has to be high on the shortlist.
1pt win – Hold The Note – 10/1 @ Paddy Power & William Hill
1pt win – Simply The Betts – 6/1 @ Bet365
Wetherby
2:10 – 888Sport Rowland Meyrick Handicap Chase (Grade 3) – 3m
If the leading contenders in the ante post betting stand their ground, then we could be in for a top-class renewal of the Rowland Meyrick Handicap Chase.
Belami Des Pictons who missed Ascot’s Silver Cup heads the ante post betting. A winner over 3m on heavy ground. The 8-year-old’s 4th of 17 in the BetVictor Gold Cup was an eye-catching one and the handicapper has dropped him 1lb since Cheltenham. Not a certain runner but he looks a solid favourite off his current mark of 145.
Next in the betting is the classy Kalashnikov who has top-weight of 11-12 to carry should he run. Runner-up on both his starts this season this will be his first run over further than 2m 4f. Ground will suit but will his stamina hold for the new distance?
Top Ville Ben was third in the Rehearsal Chase. He had jumped well out in front and only caught in the final 100yds. Up 3lb, but he was a high-class staying novice chaser last season and has nice pot like this in him. The 7-year-old goes well on soft ground and has won twice over C&D. A big player here.
Captain Chaos was ¼ length in front of Top Ville Ben in the Rehearsal. The first time cheekpieces seemed to work the trick at Newcastle. He was second in this race 12 months ago and if the headgear works again, he should be bang there.
In addition to Captain Chaos, trainer Dan Skelton could saddle the improving Benny’s King. The 8-year-old made it 3 wins from 5 starts over fences when winning at Newbury last month. That success came over 2m 6 ½ f but he shapes like he will stay 3m.
Lake View Lad won this 12 months ago, off 8lb lower. Well suited to the mud but the 9-year-old will do well to hold Captain Chaos at today’s weights. Was well behind in the Rehearsal Chase but that was his seasonal return and he will be fitter now. He will give it his best, but it will be a tough ask to achieve back to back wins in what looks a better class renewal.
Verdict: This year’s renewal looks stronger than last years. If he runs I can’t leave Belami Des Pictons out of calculations given I fancied him for Saturday’s Ascot handicap. Top Ville Ben likes it around here and has a decent pot in him.
1pt win – Belami Des Pictons – 5/1 @ William Hill & Bet365
1pt win – Top Ville Ben – 13/2 @ Coral or 6/1 @ Ladbrokes
Cheers
John