Hi all,
It’s Ladbroke Trophy Day at Newbury, the big race, the Ladbroke Trophy, has attracted 24 runners which is double last year’s runners. The supporting handicaps on the seven-race card have all attracted decent field sizes.
Up at Newcastle it’s the Fighting Fifth Hurdle, which sees the return of Buveur D’Air, and the Rehearsal Handicap Chase. The course does have to survive an 8am precautionary inspection.
Let’s begin at Newbury where most of today’s selections run.
Newbury
1:50 – Dan McGrue looks likely to head the market on the back of his win at Plumpton 26-days ago. The ground was heavy that day so underfoot conditions look likely to be different and he’s up 7lb today. All that said he shouldn’t be far away.
Star Of Lanka wasn’t beaten far on his return at Sandown 20-days ago and can go well off 4lb higher here. Ben Jones takes off a useful 5lb and trainer Warren Greatrex is 5 winners from 19 runners 26% +3 A/E 1.63 7 placed 37% with his runners at the meeting in the past 5-years. A decent each way contender.
1pt each way – Star Of Lanka – 11/1 @ Ladbrokes (paying 5 places 1/5 odds)
2:25 – The drying ground will be in the favour of Scarlet Dragon. Crooks Peak is only 1lb higher than when winning a class 3 handicap hurdle over C&D in March not so good on his next three starts, including his seasonal reappearance at Chepstow 49-days ago. The drying ground will be in favour and he could get into the money even in this much better race.
Nicky Henderson saddles three in: Elusive Belle, Epatante & French Crusader. All three are contenders if ready to go on their seasonal debuts. The best of the three today could be Elusive Belle who makes her handicap debut off a fair but beatable mark.
My preference from a win perspective is Elvis Mail who makes the long journey from Scotland for this handicap hurdle. A decisive winner at Ayr, on his seasonal reappearance 28-days. The 5-year-old is 6lb higher than last time but he’s progressive and remains on a winning mark. Looks the one to beat.
Elvis Mail – 6/1 @ Paddy Power & William Hill
Elusive Belle – 4/1 – Gen
3:00 – Ladbrokes Trophy Chase (Handicap) (Grade 3) (Class 1) – 3m 2f
The big betting race of the weekend. Great to see this year’s renewal has attracted a field of 24 runners. I tipped up De Rasher Counter & On The Blind Side in my last ante post angle post at much bigger prices. I will stick with them although their prices are short enough now. De Rasher Counter may prefer it even softer, but the drying ground looks ideal for On The Blind Side.
Colin Tizzard saddles four Elegant Escape, Mister Malarkey, West Approach & Robinsfirth. The trainer won the race last year in 2016 and all four of his runners have chances. Looking at the betting the outsider of his four runners Robinsfirth is of most interest. The 10-year-old has only 13 career starts, winning five of them. He’s been trained for the race, goes well fresh and you couldn’t totally dismiss his chance but needs a career best here.
I fancied Dingo Dollor for this race 12 months ago and he ran a cracker to finish 3rd on ground that would have been plenty soft enough. Another big run expected but I have to say this race looks tougher than last years.
0.5pts – each way – Robinsfirth – 25/1 @ Ladbrokes & Paddy Power (both paying 6 places `1/5 odds)
3:40 – Magic Saint heads the ante post market. He should improve plenty for his recent 5th of 17 in the BetVictor Gold Cup and the drop back to an extended two mile will also be in his favour. Short price given what looks a competitive race, but he could be thrown in here and better than his mark of 147.
At bigger odd’s I wouldn’t dismiss the claims of Tree Of Liberty who’s making his seasonal debut today
The 7-year-old is on a competitive mark based on the best form of last season’s form. He was 2nd of 9 to last Saturday’s Ascot Capeland, at Ludlow last December. Looks very interesting off the same mark as Ludlow and my idea of some each way value.
1pt win – magic Saint – 7/1 @ Coral & William Hill
0.5pts each way – Tree Of Liberty – 16/1 @ William Hill & Ladbrokes (both paying 5 places 1/5 odds)
Newcastle
3:20 – This year’s running of the Rehearsal Handicap Chase has attracted a field of nine runners on ground which looks likely to be heavy.
Kilfilum Cross took advantage of a lenient handicap mark on his first start for trainer Henry Oliver, when winning an amateur riders’ race at Ludlow in February. He improved further on his next start when finishing 2nd of 22 in the Kim Muir Handicap Chase at the Cheltenham Festival.
Ended last season with a below par effort at Ayr on ground that was probably quick enough for the 8-year-old. Kilfilum Cross is better judged on his Cheltenham run rather than his Ayr one. Lightly raced, just the nine career starts, he’s got plenty of size about him and should hold his own in handicap chases over 3m+ this season.
Making his seasonal return after a 201-day absence over a trip (2m 4f) which seemed to short of his best, but he ran well to finish 3rd of 12. Will be all the better for his seasonal reappearance and I don’t think we have seen the best of the 8-year-old yet. Yet to race on heavy is a slight negative but apart from that he got a good chance.
1pt win – Kilfilum Cross – 7/2 @ Bet365 & William Hill
Cheers
John