Hi all,
The weather took its toll of racing on Saturday with both Doncaster & Newbury’s fixtures being abandoned.
There should be no issues with Aintree on Sunday for the Old Roan Chase, although the going is being officially described as soft. Wincanton seems to have missed most of the heavy rain that has hit the south west of England in recent days as the going is being described as good. It will be interesting to see if that remains the case tomorrow.
Aintree
It’s a decent looking card at Aintree and it provides us with a few betting opportunities starting with the veteran’s chase at 1:50.
1:50 – Previous course winner On Tour is sure to be popular with punters after his recent second behind Vieux Lion Rouge in a Chepstow veterans chase 16-days ago. Over this sort of distance, he’s vulnerable to younger contenders.
Killaro Bay won a hunter chase on his debut for trainer Henry Oliver in May he then went on to run Brave Eagle to a nose in the valuable Summer Cup at Uttoxeter a month later. Both those runs came on good ground and his Uttoxeter performance was a career best for the 10-year-old. Had winning form on soft & heavy when trained in Ireland so underfoot conditions shouldn’t be an issue. Back from a 119-day absence but has winning form fresh so should be fit enough. Now 5lb higher than at Uttoxeter but he’s open a bit more progress than most of these veterans. The most intriguing runner is the Venetia Williams trained Burton’s Well. Now a 10-year-old he looked a decent young staying handicap chaser in the making during the 2016-17 season. Started the 2017-18 season running Roman De Senam to a neck at Stratford, off 4lb higher. Ran poorly on his last start at Cheltenham 664-days ago. Clearly, he’s had his problems. given his long absence, but if he retained most of his old ability he can’t be ruled out.
Verdict: Over this trip I prefer Kilaro Bay to On Tour but It could be worth chancing a saver on Burton’s Well.
2pts win – Kilaro Bay – 9/2 @ Bet365 & Betway
1pt win – Burtons Well – 10/1 @ William Hill
3:00 – The Old Roan Chase – Last years winner Frodan bids for a notable double in the race. However, he does have to give 14lb to ante post favourite, Kalashnikov who won the Grade 1 Manifesto Novices Chase at the Grand National Festival. No doubting his battling attitude but his jumping will be tested to the full by the bold jumping Frodon that’s for sure. Forest Bihan & Bigmartre have their chances at the weights but you would be disappointed if this race doesn’t turn out to be between the front two in the betting. If you had to put a gun to my head, I would just favour Frodon but it’s a race to watch rather than bet in.
3:35 – A novices’ handicap chase with nine declared to go to post and it’s an interesting race. Worcester novice chase winner The Hollow Ginge heads the market, Soft ground and today’s extra two furlongs should suit the 6-year-old. The form of his Worcester win has already been boosted with the third having won a handicap chase at Cheltenham on Saturday.
Django Django, a winner of a 3m ½ f handicap hurdle at Haydock back in April. He made a highly encouraging chase debut when a 2 ½ length third at Uttoxeter 21-days ago. Two & half miles even on soft ground would have plenty short enough for the 6-year-old and so it proved. The return to this sort of distance should bring out further improvement in him.
Bako De La Saulaie is one of the most experienced chasers in the field – 0 wins from 7 starts over the larger obstacles. I think he can win races this season, but you would be disappointed if it was to be here.
Over To Sam won a maiden hurdle at Exeter in January 2017. The 8-year-old was off for 817-days before making an encouraging return to action when 3rd of 5 on his chase debut at Newton Abbot 172-days ago. Looks capable of winning races over fences if he can build on his chase debut and looks on a workable mark off 134. First run since a wind-op and one for the short list.
Deise Aba, a winning hurdler on his debut over rules last November looked like he would make up into a better chaser than hurdler and the 6-year-old makes his debut over fences today. Clearly a contender in the hands of Richard Johnson.
Verdict: The Hollow Ginge looks a worthy favourite based on the form of his Worcester but I suspect we haven’t seen the best Over To Sam yet.
1pt win – Over To Sam – 17/2 @ William Hill
Wincanton
2:45 – Desert Orchid Silver Cup,has attracted a decent sized field of 11 runners for what looks a competitive renewal of this Class 3 contest.
Paul Nicholls has won this race in 2010 & 2017 and he saddles Coup De Pinceau who’s is having his first start since a summer wind-op. A strong stayer and a good jumper of a fence last season, winning twice, he should be suited by today’s 3m 2 ½ f trip. Goes well fresh 3 wins from 4 runs 4 placed when retuning from a 121+day layoff. Harry Cobden takes the ride and looks the stable number one choice on jockey bookings.
Captain Cattistock is the other Nicholls runner. He’s 2 from 4 over fences, stays well and can’t be discounted if fit to go on his return from a 198-day absence. Three from three here at Wincanton so no problems with the track for the 6-year-old. His stablemate looks stronger here, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Captain Cattistock rated higher than his stablemate by the end of the season.
White Moon won a Exeter Beginners Chase in January but he’s not really built on his hurdling form as had been expected. Plenty of ability and this is first run since a wind-op, but he looks plenty short enough in the betting for what he’s achieved so far over fences.
Coningsby ended last season with a good win at Exeter 217-days ago. The handicapper has raised him 8lb for that win, but the 6-year-old should remain competitive of his new mark and capable of winning more races over fences.
One of Us, trained by Nick Williams, is another second season chaser. The 7-year-old is 1 win from 6 3 places over the larger obstacles. Got his head in front at the 6th attempt on his final start of last season when winning a 3m 6 ½ f handicap chase. The step up in trip clearly suited him that day and although he’s 5lb higher than for his Exeter win he’s unexposed as a staying chaser. Has finished runner-up on both his starts over C&D, including 2nd of 8 behind subsequent Midlands Grand National winner Potters Cross. No stamina issues and if he’s fully tuned up won’t be far away.
Verdict: I think this is one most competitive races of the day. Both the Nicholls pair are contenders with a slight preference for Coup De Pinceau who goes well fresh. Coningsby can win races off his present mark. One of Us stays really well and has each way claims off a career high mark.
There you have it some good racing for Sunday this side of the Irish Sea. In fact, I would say it’s as good as yesterday’s fare at least from a betting perspective.
1pt win Coup De Pinceau – 4/1 @ Bet365
0.5pts each way – One Of Us – 10/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
There are some interesting races at Galway. No more so than the handicap chase at 2:15.
Galway
2:15 – Sumos Novios’s last win came in a Grade 3 at Cork back in April 2018. The 11-year-old hasn’t been the easiest to keep sound as he has only had three starts since his last win. Returns for the first time since pulling up in the Thyestes Chase in January. A 278-day layoff to overcome but in the past he used to go well fresh – 2 wins from 4 runs + 12.40 3 placed when returning from 121 to 365-day absence. Well handicapped if back to his best, 2lb lower than for his last handicap chase win, and the booking of Paul Townend suggests a big run is expected.
Classy as he is at his best can give to 28lb to Ask Heather? The mare was having just her second run over fences when getting up in a driving finish at Tramore 10-days ago. That novice chase win came over 2m and given she’s won over 3m over hurdles she can be expected to improve further over today’s 2m 6f ½ f.
1pt win – Sumos Novios – 12/1 @ Paddy Power
1pt win – Ask Heather – 6/1 @ William Hill & Racebets
Cheers
John