Hi all,
Yesterday went rather well, clearly a nice profit helps but it was also pleasing to read yesterday’s highlighted races so well. Which has often been the case in recent months.
Like Friday, there’s some great racing on offer.
Newmarket
4:10 – Emirates Cesarewitch Stakes (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) – 2m 2f
The second leg of the ‘Autumn Double’ and today’s big betting race.
Great White Shark looks to have the right sort of profile for the race. The 5-year-old bolted up on her last start on the flat at Galway. Not so good on two subsequent starts over hurdles. Up 9lb for her Galway win clearly demands more but she looks more than capable of finding that improvement.
Top weight Who Dares Wins might be a 7-year-old, but he’s been in the form of his life this season. Winning the Northumberland Plate back in June before finishing 4th of 16 behind Withhold in a valuable Newbury handicap. Returned to action seven days ago when 4th of 10 in the Group 1 Prix Du Cadran at Longchamp 7-days ago. He goes well on soft and has won over C&D in the past. Apprentice jockeys don’t have the best of records in the race, but Angus Villiers takes off a useful 7lb. Provided this doesn’t come too quick after Longchamp he must have a chance of getting into the money.
1pt each way – Great White Shark – 14/1 @ Coral (paying 7 places 1/5 odds)
0.5pts each way – Who Dares Wins – 28/1 @ Coral (paying 7 places 1/5 odds)
5:20 – Indeed, steps out of handicap company today but he has shaped like a pattern horse especially when he gets rain softened ground. Slight concern that he was said to have bled after his last run at Goodwood, but he can go close here.
1pt win – Indeed – 9/1 @ William Hill & Bet365
York
3:50 – Coral Sprint Trophy Handicap (Class 2) – 6f
A maximum field of 22 are set to go to post for this highly competitive sprint handicap
Aplomb put in a career best when 2nd of 10 at Ascot 8-days ago. The 3-year-old takes on the older sprinters today but remains on an upward curve and goes very well on soft ground – 3-7 5 places with soft in the going description. Solid win contender, if he finds a bit more improvement.
Air Raid is another who’s at his best on testing ground. The 4-year-old made it 4-5 on soft ground when winning the Scottish Stewards’ Cup at Hamilton back in July. Never showed on good to firm in the Stewards Cup at Goodwood on his latest start. A 70-day absence shouldn’t be a problem as he’s won off a longer break in the past. Trainer Jed O’Keeffe won this race in 2015 but the trainer’s recent form is worry 54 runners and 56-days since his last winner. It would be a great race for the trainer to come off the cold list. Stable form means I’m cautious on the staking front.
Bernardo O’Reilly is another who goes well on rain softened ground. The 5-year-old seemed to put in a career best when winning at Ffos Las on his last start. Returns from a 50-day lay off but has won fresh in the past. Up 4lb for his last success shouldn’t be too much of a problem but his hold up running style means he’s a hostage to fortune on a track like York.
1pt win – Aplomb – 8/1 @ Bet365 or 7/1 – Gen
0.5pts each way – Air Raid – 14/1 @ Paddy Power & William Hill (both paying 5 places 1/5 odds)
0.5pts each way – Bernardo O’Reilly – 12/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes (paying 5 places 1/5 odds0
Chepstow
There are three good handicaps on Chepstow’s valuable jumps cards and I have a selection in one of them.
3:20 – Captain Chaos doesn’t have the best of records first time up and was well beaten in this race 12 months ago. In his favour this time around is soft ground. All six of his career wins have come on soft and if he ready to go fitness wise is on a workable mark.
1pt win – Captain Chaos – 13/2 Gen
There’s more big race action tomorrow with the Munster National at Limerick and the Irish Cesarewitch at the Curragh.
Cheers
John