VV’s Weekend Betting Preview – Part 1 – September 14th 2019

Hi all,

The final day of the St Leger Festival which has been a poor three days racing so far. I will be having my say on the meeting in Monday’s Daily Punt.

It’s the final English Classic of the season with the latest running over Britain’s oldest Classic. I think the race and the meeting needs an impressive winner. Hopefully we will get it with Logician.

Over the Irish Sea, its Irish Champions Weekend at Leopardstown. Some great racing saves the day as the Doncaster card with the odd exception is tepid.

I have selections from Doncaster, Chelmsford and Leopardstown.

Doncaster

1:50 – William Hill Portland Handicap (Class 2) – 5 ½ f

At last a decent sized field for a handicap at Doncaster this week. With a maximum field of 22 declared to go post. Plenty in with a chance as you would expect. Here are some on my short list.

A Momentofmadness, won this race last year off 4lb higher. Not in great form in 2019 but his 6th of 22 at York last month, beaten just ½ lengths was a step back in the right direction. This trip is ideal and even off the back of that run, he’s still 4lbs lower than last year. William Buick who gets on so well with horse stays in the saddle.

Wentworth Falls, three of his top six RPR’s have come at Doncaster and all of then have come on good or quicker ground. Not won since April 2017, 2lb lower today, but has run plenty of good races in defeat the meantime. Was beaten just a neck here back in May off 3lb higher and was 3rd of 21 in this race 12 months ago. A reproduction of either of those runs would see the 7-year-old get into the places.

Gunmetal, remains 2lb higher than when running out a 2 ½ length winner last year’s Great St Wilfrid Handicap at Ripon, beating Dakota Gold in the process. No wins this season but he was only beaten 1 ½ lengths into 4th behind Duke Of Firenze over 5f at York back in May, off 4lb higher. Before finishing 6th of 26 in the Wokingham Handicap at Royal Ascot, doing best of the group that went far side. Has no dropped to a winnable mark and a stiff 5 ½ f on quick ground could be ideal for the 6-year-old.

Bielsa, it doesn’t to take genius to pick this one. The [VV1] 4-year-old made it 3 wins from 3 runs when winning a competitive 6f Class 3 handicap at Thirsk 15-days ago. Up 7lb but he’s progressive and looks the right favourite.

Makanah, shaped with arguably the most promise at York. He was slowly away that day and did well to get as close as he did the winner. The extra ½ should suit and he did win here over the minimum trip last summer. The 4-year-old remains progressive and is another with a good chance. He would be a pick, but Stall 1 is a concern with stalls 1 to 6 being 0 winners from 55 runners 5 placed in the past ten-years.

Bielsa -13/2 @ Bet365 & Betway

A Momentofmadness – 7/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

3:35 – William Hill St Leger Stakes (Group 1) (British Champions Series) (Colts & Fillies) – 1m 6 ½ f

Eight go to post, three trained by Aidan O’Brien, for what looks an unappealing final classic of the season.

Logician made it 4 from 4 when running out the comfortable winner of the Great Voltigeur Stakes at York. He can become the first winner of that race to do the double since Lucarno back in 2007. Should stay the extra 2 ½ f and will appreciate Doncaster’s galloping track. At evens or bigger he looks decent value too. I can’t really look beyond the favourite.

Chelmsford

2:45 – Compared to Doncaster this is a competitive handicap. Piece Of History is an intriguing runner for Saeed Bin Suroor. A winner of his first two starts last year, including here over a mile. Best performance of 2018 came when he was a ½ length second to Auxerre at Kempton last October off today’s mark. Not so good on his two starts this season but a return to the synthetics will suit. The 4-year-old has only had the eight career starts so remains capable of better. He will do for me.

Piece Of History – 5/1 @ Bet365 & William Hill

Leopardstown

2:30 – Irish Stallion Farms EBF “Petingo” Handicap (Premier Handicap) – 1m 5f

The first of two big field handicaps on the card and a field of 18 are set to go to post.

Kastasa comes into the race looking for the hat trick after wins at Sligo and the Curragh 22-days ago. The filly only got up close to home to win by ½ length. Up 8lb but the lightly races 3-year-old is going the right way and on the evidence of her Curragh will relish the extra furlong of this race.

Trossachs, won over C&D three starts back. That was the 3-year-old’s third win of the season. Was runner-up to Perfect Tapatino, off 1lb lower 31-days ago. Looks sure to run his race and is one for the shortlist.

Willie Mullins who has won this race three times since the 2012. His two in this year’s race are Buildmeupbuttercup & Nessun Dorma and both are contenders. Buildmeupbuttercup had no problem with the drop back to 1m 4f when winning a Galway maiden 45-days ago. The 5-year-old is strong contender. Nessun Dorma is having his first start for 314 -days. Has won fresh so there shouldn’t be any issues fitness wise. Capable of going close on his best form and can get into the money.

Machine Learner was only beaten a head in this race in 2017 and is 2lb lower this time around. Has been knocking on the door on his last two runs with placed efforts at Sandown. Last time out he didn’t get the clearest of runs inside the final furlong and had to settle for third at the line. The 6-year-old looks set for a big run here for a trainer who has his horses in great form.

Machine Learner – 9/1 – Gen

Nessun Dorma – 16/1 @ Coral & William Hill – each way (both paying 4 places ¼ odds)

4:15- Irish Champion Stakes (Group 1) – 1m 2f

There’s plenty of depth and it’s a good renewal of the Irish Champions Stakes.

Magical should get a good tow into the race from stablemates Hunting Horn & Magic Wand. Has finished runner-up to Enable on her last two starts and runner-up to Crystal Ocean at Royal Ascot. The 4-year-old is a Group1 filly and has the best form on offer. Headman won the London Gold Cup back in May and has been well placed to win Group 2 & Group 3 contests at Saint-Cloud and latterly Deauville 30-days ago. Has a bit find with Magical on form but looks capable of holding his own in Group 1 company. Madhmoon was runner-up in the Epsom Derby and 1m 2f looks like it will be his optimum trip. Elarqam has been supplemented for the race and was 3^rd to Japan in the International Stakes at York last time. Won’t be far away if reproducing his York run. Japanese raider Deirdre showed her Royal Ascot running, on soft ground, to be all wrong when coming off a strong pace to win the Group 1 Nassau Stakes at Goodwood 44-day ago. The stronger the pace and the quicker the ground the better the mare is. Leopardstown should suit her better than Goodwood and she needs respecting. I don’t think she deserves to be 14/1.

Deirdre – 14/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes – each way

6:00 – Irish Stallion Farms EBF “Sovereign Path” Handicap (Premier Handicap) – 7f

Seventeen are set to go to post for this valuable handicap.

Jassaar won the Irish Cambridgshire 15-days ago. He’s going the right way and if the drop back to 7f isn’t an inconvenience looks sure to go close. Current Option was runner-up in that race. He gets 6lb from the winner for ¾ length and could be better suited by the drop back to 7f of the pair. Three-year-olds have won five of the last ten running’s of the race which is another positive to the horses chance.

Crochet, trained by Joseph O’Brien, has each way claims on her best form. Probably needs them to go very hard over 7f and may better over a mile. A useful 5lb claimer takes the ride and she should give it a good go.

Admirality & Ice Cold In Alex give Middleham Park Racing a strong hand in the race. The former was 3^rd of 17 in the Bunbury Cup over today’s trip and a reproduction of that run puts the 5-year-old very much in the mix. Trainer Roger Fell won this race in 2017 but is just 1 winner from 25 runners in the past 14-days. Ice Cold In Alex has been knocking on the door in big field handicaps this season. The 5-year-old finished 4^th of 25 in The Irish Cambridgeshire on his last start and won’t be winning out of turn. A C&D winner last year and the quicker they go up front the better for this hold up horse.

Silverkode is another who likes to come off the pace. The 5-year-old’s two best RPR’s have come in this race in 2017 and again 12 months ago. Last year he was beaten just a neck into second and can now race off 8lb lower. Return to 7f will suit as will the quicker ground. Not really at his best on four starts this season but was a decent 3^rd of 11 at Cork back in May. Looks to have laid out for the race and he’s handicapped to win.