Hi all,
We have three recent eyecatchers running at Exeter today and there’s also the latest running of the Devon National at 4:20, which this year looks set to take place on good to soft going at worst rather than soft or heavy. I have had look at the race below.
Firstly, let’s look at the three eyecatchers running:
Exeter
2:05 – Dragon D’Estruval – 5/1 @Bet365 – No problem with the going for the 6-year-old and he stays 2m 6f so should get the extra furlong here. Capable of winning off his present mark, although this Pertemps Series Qualifier looks very competitive with plenty of runners still hoping to qualify for the final at Cheltenham. Trainer Nicky Henderson also saddles the useful Thomas Campbell.
4:20 – Cobolobo – 5/1 @ Bet365 – Trained by Jonjo O’Neill, who has an excellent record with his runners in the Devon National – 3 winners from 7 runners 43% +30.5 4 placed 57%. The 7-year-old looks a real staying type and was an eyecatcher when 3rd to Reikers Island and Some Chaos at Wincanton. The latter won a handicap back at that track on Saturday.
Cobolobo has won on good ground over hurdles so underfoot conditions shouldn’t be an issue. Granted he lacks the experience of plenty in the field, this is just his third start over the larger obstacles. However, he’s run with promise on both starts and mark of 123 looks winnable. Top course jockey Noel Fehily takes the ride and he’s got a 28%-win strike rate with his rides over fences at Exeter.
4:50 – Captain Cattistock – 11/4 @ Coral & William Hill – A three-time winner over hurdles last season. Two decent prep runs over hurdles in the autumn, fell at the last behind Paisley Park at Haydock on the last of those starts. The 6-year-old looks capable of doing even better over the larger obstacles and he wasn’t disgraced when 3rd in Chepstow novices’ chase on debut over fences last month.
4:20 – Devon National Handicap Chase (Class 3) – 3m 6 ½ f
I have already highlighted the claims of Cobolobo for this marathon.
Looking at some of the recent trends for the race. In the past five-years, all five winners carried 11-3 or more and all five were officially rated 124 to 131. Those outside that narrow band are 0 winners from 42 runners 5 placed 12%.
Now strictly on trends, Cobolobo fails both but only just. One who doesn’t is the David Pipe trained Aurillac. The 9-year-old has had just the two starts since returning from a 654-day absence. He was well backed on his seasonal reappearance but was pulled up. Put in a much better effort when 4th here over 3m last month. Granted he’s 0 from 8 over fences but looks well-handicapped on his best form, for previous trainer Rebecca Curtis, when runner up to Belami Des Pictons and Beware The Bear back in December 2016.
Le Boizelo, ran poorly at Taunton but he’s not been out of the first three here at Exeter. He would prefer much softer ground but this sort of distance looks set to suit and a bounce back can’t be ruled out back here.
Courtown Oscar trained by Phil Kirby, stays well and races off the same mark as for his last win. But is another who would prefer much softer ground. He’s three best performances on Racing Post Ratings have come on heavy.
Dancing Shadow, is another potentially well handicapped horse. He won the Edinburgh National on good ground in 2017 off 8lb higher. His form has nosedived since although he did over hurdles here in November 2017.
Chic Name, ended last season with a win in the 3m 6f ½ f Highland National at Perth. He races off the same mark today and can’t be ruled out although looks more a place contender than a win one.
Dawson City, won this race off 4lb lower last season. He hasn’t been disgraced on his two starts in the Scottish Borders National and the Welsh Grand National. The 10-year -old is very well suited by these regional nationals but last years win came on soft so the going maybe s shade quicker than he wants even over this trip.
Verdict: I must back Cobolobo. Dawson City could back up last years win. Dancing Shadow is well-handicapped if he was to bounce back to something like his best but that’s a big if. I also think Aurillac is on a winnable mark if he stays the trip and he look’s worth a go, to get into the places.
Aurillac – 12/1 @Bet365 – each way – (paying 4 places ¼ odds)
Cheers
John